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To kick off the New Year, I went around the block and asked a few baseball-blogging comrades what they think the Dodgers should try to accomplish for the remainder of the offseason. None mentioned Claudio Vargas, but I present their opinions nonetheless.
Cliff Corcoran, Bronx Banter:
I would have urged the Dodgers not to re-sign Casey Blake or Rafael Furcal, but it's too late for that. I would urge them to bring back Derek Lowe, but it seems Lowe wants to return to the east coast. Their biggest need would seem to be another starting pitcher. A short incentive-laden deal for Ben Sheets could pay off big, but that risk is one the team still nursing Jason Schmidt might not be willing to take. On the opposite side of the risk/reward scale, Braden Looper could be a surprisingly solid bargain. Second to that, L.A. could use a legitimate backup catcher. Gregg Zaun and Javier Valentin are two that leap to mind.
The elephant in the room, of course, is Manny Ramirez. The Dodgers have been right to pursue him despite the fact that it would mean punting the second and final year of Andruw Jones' contract, but while Ramirez would be a boon to their offense, the Dodgers and their fans should not expect a repeat of his outburst over the final two months of 2008. Given their willingness to punt on Jones, the team should look elsewhere if its unable to land Ramirez, starting with Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell. A cheap, one-year deal for Jim Edmonds could be a budget-price alternative, as Edmonds could platoon with Jones in center while allowing Kemp to move back to right field where his 2008 splits suggest he's more comfortable.
David Pinto, Baseball Musings:
It strikes me that the Dodgers should be concentrating more on their starting pitching than their outfield. Kemp, Ethier, Jones and Pierre provide enough offense and defense that they should put their resources more into pitching. They've lost Penny and Lowe, and Schmidt isn't likely to contribute much. With the market for Lowe not that great, maybe they should try to resign him.
Rich Lederer, Baseball Analysts:
Signing Manny Ramirez should be priority No. 1. But, in defense of the Dodgers, management offered Manny a reasonable contract that apparently has fallen on deaf ears. Scott Boras may have overplayed his hand here, promising his client more years and money than what the market is willing to pay. The Dodgers have (rightfully) pulled their offer and are now reportedly pursuing other options (such as Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu).
More than anything, I would remain committed to Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp while doing my best to move Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre (even if it means eating more than half of their remaining contracts). I believe the Dodgers should be pursuing longer-term deals with Ethier and Kemp, as well as James Loney and Russell Martin (and Chad Billingsley once he proves to be healthy after suffering a broken leg this winter). Buying out a year or two of free agency will give these players newfound wealth and job security while allowing the club to sign their best players at a discount to what it may cost by going to arbitration with them every year.
In addition to resolving the Ramirez situation and the contract status of these young players, the Dodgers need to acquire at least one reliable starting pitcher and another setup man, as I'm not convinced that Cory Wade will come close to duplicating his rookie season. The Dodgers should be in conversations with Derek Lowe if it turns out that the market is no better than, say, 3 x 12.
The Dodgers have lost more players than they have added, so it seems as if management has a lot to do between now and the start of spring training because I don't believe the farm system can fill the missing pieces of the puzzle. Bringing back Rafael Furcal was a good move. Bringing back Casey Blake? Not so good. The Mark Loretta acquisition was smart in terms of the cost and what it is he can bring to the club. It's time to step up: Make Manny a 1 x 25 "take it or leave it" offer that can turn into a 2 x 25 deal if he plays 150 games and/or gets 650 plate appearances. If that doesn't work, turn your attention to Dunn and offer him half of what the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira for (both in terms of years and average annual salary). A 4 x 11.25 seems like a fair contract for both sides and one which I would favor.
Tom Meagher, Fifth Outfielder:
My assessment is that the Dodgers should spend the remainder of the offseason trying to wisely use their payroll on free agents. I can't think of any trades they should be pursuing, given the relative immobility of any veterans they should trade and given that they likely won't get a decent return for any youngsters. Ramirez is the obvious target because, though he does not represent good bang for the buck, he's the only available free agent who would constitute a 2+ win upgrade at his position, given that nearly all the LF on the market have fielding prowesses that barely surpass Manny's.
I wouldn't mind an Orlando Hudson signing, though I'm completely unclear as to what the market for him is. If he's going to be cheap, then he might end up representing better value than Ramirez. Hudson could free up Casey Blake to be more of a super-sub type or simply a strict LF. I also haven't read up on the O-Dog's medical condition, so all I can say is that I suggest the Dodgers consider it and give it due diligence, what with Hudson being arguably a more valuable all around player than Manny. However, Hudson is a type A free agent, and I think that will prevent L.A. from even considering making a play for him, what with having pick No. 17 and all.
One of the best players on the market is one of my favorite players, but I hold out no hope for the Dodgers to pursue Milton Bradley.
The pitching market is thoroughly unexciting, and the Dodgers don't figure to get any starter that is well above average. The Dodgers are not in dire straits on the pitching front by any means, and Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, McDonald, Stults and Troncoso could certainly be enough to get this team to the playoffs. The dilemma they face is that anyone they bring in in free agency will likely be an insubstantial upgrade from the latter half of those six, and anyone they bring in in trade would very likely require a misguided overpayment in prospects. Given their depth, as well as their ability to take on payroll (if not willingness), I would like to see the Dodgers pursue Ben Sheets: if they get 140 innings a year from him I'm guessing he'd still end up looking like a bargain (to me), but I don't have much knowledge of what it will take to sign him.
I'm not against rolling the dice on Takashi Saito, just as long as rolling the dice means a few million and not, like, Eric Gagne money.
I don't think the franchise can at all plausibly deny that they can afford to sign Ramirez, Sheets and Saito, and that would seem a pretty reasonable course of action. The knock on signing Sheets would be the lost pick, but if the Dodgers get a first-rounder for Lowe they shouldn't let that get in the way. The key here is that the Dodgers are good enough; they need to focus on adding very good or great players so that they can improve. Bringing back Furcal and Blake only brought back players who don't figure to contribute much more than league average overall value. The Dodgers have sufficient depth, between prospects and the veterans in the outfield, to forget about finding solid contributors and focus on finding great players, even if they are injury-prone.
In other words, the Dodgers already have a heightened replacement level on their roster, and it'll be a shame if they suck up the remainder of their payroll acquiring players who aren't much better than average when they take the field. And if they do have to resort to acquiring merely average players, it is obvious that stockpiling pitchers rather than position players is the way to go.
I don't know (great read by the way Jon thanks) but Ben Sheets screams out red flag to me & from the pitchers the Dodgers do have (Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, McDonald, Stults and Troncoso) to me Troncoso can be a dark horse (is that what you call it?) I really like 'em but maybe McDonald can surprise (honestly guys, who really knows) in '09. Veremos...
rather than ponder players, i'd be thrilled if the dodgers focused on needs: homers, obp, etc. and the longer manny dithers, the better dunn (homers/obp) looks to me... i really don't understand our reluctance. a great piece at baseball analysts compares dunn to texiera. conclusion? they're not nearly as far apart on the field as they will be at the bank.
Stay as is...
W's 12
L's 7
Innings pitched 189.7
Strike Outs 245
era 1.95
era+ 229
_____
as I tip my hat, this Dodger fan will miss your services Mr. Saito.
if they can't sign Manny, i'd love to see Dunn added (as immouch mentioned) and then trade away Pierre and Jones and take the sunk cost.
adding to the bullpen and rotation would be nice, but nothing seems to stand out to me. after taking care of the acquisition of Manny or Dunn, i think the Dodgers should stop. see what happens on the field for the first half of 2009 and go from there. as mentioned previously, maybe spend additional resources on signing younger players to long term contracts. what happened to signing Martin long term? there was talk he didn't want to do it, and then I remember reading somewhere later that he would keep an open mind.
My first choice is still Manny and then Dunn if we can't get Manny done. I would feel better if we picked up one pitcher and I think the only pitcher worth spending money on is Sheets. Fill out the pen from within and/or a couple camp invitees. Outside of this I say save the money.
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If there's one thing I trust, it's a Major League Source™.
a: no saito gamble.
b: no sheets gamble.
c: randy wolf? again?
d: no flexibility for big-name acquisition...
i'm not against manny. great bat, cool hair, unpredictable OF events... etc. but, c'mon, what's our fixation about?
a: we get two extra years of power in LF, or...
b: a replacement part for loney, in case '08 was reality
c: roster flexibility
d: possible pitching gambles (saito, sheets, etc.)
These kids risk injury every year and will surely look for the highest bidder if they're lucky enough to be healthy and successful during arb and free agency.
Its disgusting how we've thrown huge money at older, wealthier guys from elsewhere and done the opposite for our farm-grown kids.
According to the newspaper, Lowe told the friend that he expects to sign with the Mets, who have reportedly offered him a three-year, $36 million deal." rotoworld
Lowe's friends have loose lips with media connections I guess.
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Btw, I've been an advocate of Braden Looper as a major bargain, and would be pleased if the Dodgers followed suit as suggested above. Haven't heard they have interest though.
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Happy 09 everyone!
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/giants-aggressi.html
I think the Giants being more serious players would force the Dodgers to up their ante with Manny, which may be the Giants only intention there.
There's probably an inappropriate Carolyn Hughes joke in there somewhere...
I had always hoped (this offseason) that the Dodgers would try to overcome their misunderstanding/communication failure with Lowe to make him an offer somewhere around what the Mets appear to have made, and then, if they couldn't afford Manny, to go after Dunn. It seemed to me that would be achieving maximum value in terms of off-season aquisitions that would likely help the team.
I know Dunn gets a lot of grief due to certain limitations but he bangs out 35-40 bombs per season, for cryin' out loud! That seems like a lot to my baseball uneducated pea brain.
We'd have added a dangerous bat and a very dependable arm.
Although I could see the Mets jumping back in at the last minute, and you can never count out the Yankees.
The upside is that if Manny goes elsewhere, there are decent, lower-priced alternatives.
Manny in SF is bad news for the NL West.
Sign Manny, 3 year $75 mil, eat up Jones contract (no pun intended), ditto with Pierre, and invest in arms.
31 Happy B-day!
Happy NEW YEAR everyone!
Maybe it's just the New Years in me, but that really made me laugh.
Happy birthday Underdog. May you have no fear.
thanks for the tip u-dog, & belated bday.
"you yellow dog of a cowardly cat"!
What are the the largest book collections in private hands? (an individual or a family)
I think 40 is the most anxiety provoking B-day for most people; it gets a bit better after that. I have had many people tell me that their 40's and 50's were there most satisfying years in the balance of increasing experience w/ declining physical abilities
If I were a pitcher of Wolf's capability or similar I would hesitate to sign with the Dodgers because they already have better talent. I don't think the Dodgers need more talent, they need innings. They have too many good young pitchers that might not succeed after they pitch 180 innings.
I hope the Dodgers play the best players and not automatically pencil in Blake and Furcal and Jones, and Pierre.
If Manny signs with the Giants, the Giants would be the best team in the NL West.
With that said it's not going to happen.
Jimmy Rollins is not a big man.
By the way, I am very pleased with this score...7 more points to cover the over.
51 This is why they have a journalism school.
Just got back from the Parade & lunch. Penn State band more entertaining and better at going around the corner. Most fun float was the giant Bull Dog on Skateboard which had real skating bulldogs (not Hersheiser) on a oval track on it.
No longer a good game. Pac-10 5-0 is impressive.
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