Baseball Toaster Dodger Thoughts
Jon Weisman's outlet
for dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers
and baseball.
Frozen Toast
Google Search
Dodger Thoughts

02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

09  08  07 
About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Bargain Burrell
2009-01-06 09:03
by Jon Weisman

I was stunned by the news that Pat Burrell had signed with Tampa Bay for $16 million over two years. The former Phillie won't go down as the most feared hitter of his generation, and he gives back some of his value on defense, but at age 31, he has a career OPS+ of 119, and four consecutive seasons above 120 (averaging 152.5 games per year in that time). He has even walked 216 times in the past two years. And he's going to be making less than Juan Pierre.

For that matter, Burrell will make less than Milton Bradley, who has apparently agreed to a three-year, $30 million contract with the Cubs. Bradley is a fine hitter but one who comes with his own set of problems, some of which the media is only too happy to overemphasize. "Bradley's history of temper flare-ups could be cause for as much concern as the injury history," writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, even though his paper reports that Bradley has missed only nine games in his career because of suspension.

Ever since he got caught up in domestic abuse allegations in 2005, I have abstained from weighing in on Bradley's character. Nevertheless, I find that many of those who make a moral case against Bradley are much more forgiving of serious personal flaws in other ballplayers. As far as on-field performance goes, I'd be more worried about Bradley's physical condition than his mental condition.

But my main point is, I think the Rays made a great deal with Burrell. It never occured to me that he could be signed so cheaply. For all the attention the Yankees and Red Sox have gotten this postseason, the Rays aren't going anywhere.

* * *

Chad Billingsley is one of seven pitchers that Peter Bendix of Beyond the Box Score picks out as potential victims of the "Verducci Effect." For a decade, Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci has been tracking young pitchers who increase their innings count by more than 30 from the previous season, finding that they are poised for setbacks. It's admittedly anecdotal, but it's something to keep in mind.

Here are the pitchers that Tom Verducci listed as being possible victims of the so-called Verducci Effect in 2008:

Ian Kennedy
Fausto Carmona
Ubaldo Jimenez
Tom Gorzelanny
Dustin McGowan
Chad Gaudin
Yovani Gallardo

Wow – pretty convincing evidence for this theory. Kennedy was awful at the major league level; Carmona was hurt for much of the year and ineffective when healthy; Gorzelanny's ERA went up nearly three full runs; Gallardo got hurt and missed most of the season (although this is unfair, as his injury was a fluke unrelated to his shoulder or arm).

Jimenez defied the Verducci Effect, pitching nearly 200 innings and showing tremendous improvement. Gaudin pitched primarily out of the bullpen and maintained his production. However, five of the seven players that Verducci identified as being particularly risky were either hurt or very ineffective in 2008.

Of course, caveats abound: there is no control study, and we know that pitchers – especially those under 25 – are inherently risky, not just pitchers who have had big innings increases. Furthermore, this is a very selective sample: in order to accumulate a large increase in innings, you have to be pretty effective – perhaps even more effective than your "true ability," thus making regression more likely. Still, the results are convincing, and Verducci writes of similar results from past seasons as well.

Billingsley, 24, went from 147 innings in 2007 to 212 in 2008 (including the playoffs). Others on the 2008 Watch List include Tim Lincecum and Cole Hamels.

* * *

Update: Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus writes about the outfield market, and invokes the name Jody Reed:

I love Manny Ramirez as a player, and I'm on record making the argument that the off-field problems that predicated his trade from Boston may have been overstated. (At this point, six months and a lot of conversations later, I don't know if I still hold that position. It's not relevant here, regardless.) It's not clear, however, that he's worth twice as much or more per season than the other guys in this pool. More that the others? Sure, he's the best player out of this bunch, even granting the poor defense and the advanced age. He's also the most likely, save perhaps Dunn, to sustain his performance over the next three years. With all that, though, there's just no way he's worth twice as much per season as Bradley is. He's not worth three times what Burrell will make. You're not paying for his Hall of Fame past, remember; you're paying for his future.

Right now, the best contract for Ramirez is the one that he no longer has available to him: his one-year, $20 million option that was voided when he accepted a trade to the Dodgers. At the time, it seemed silly to suggest that Ramirez wouldn't do better than that. Now, looking at the contracts signed by his peers, it seems silly to suggest that he will. The signings of Burrell and Bradley have to affect how the Dodgers, the Giants, and other potential suitors regard the price on Ramirez's head. Of course, the buyers aren't entirely rational, and Ramirez has some markers that these other guys don't. He's fresh off of the two great months for the Dodgers and the perception that he carried them to the postseason. Still, the gap between where the market sits for corner outfielders who can hit but not field—$8 million to $10 million per season for a three-year deal—and the current set of rumors on Ramirez is too wide to be ignored. Abreu and Dunn are still available; there's no reason for a team to spend twice as much as it has to to get maybe an extra win or two. Even pricing Ramirez just off of last year's performance, which may overstate the gap between him and the rest of the field for 2009 and beyond, a reasonable estimate would be approximately $16 million per season on a three-year contract, plus an option on a fourth year. ...

... the chance for Ramirez to break the bank is gone. There's not going to be a nine-figure contract, and Ramirez's AAV (average annual value) will almost certainly drop from his last deal. He took a risk in pressing to ensure that he would be a free agent this winter, and despite his fantastic performance, that risk looks like it will be for naught because of the glut of players with similar skill sets available. It won't quite rise to the level of Jody Reed or Juan Gonzalez, but right now, it seems that Ramirez left money on the table by not taking the first offer — two years and $45 million — made back in November.

I'm not convinced that Ramirez won't beat that November offer, but his final deal still figures to be a comedown from what he must have been expecting.

Comments (331)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2009-01-06 10:53:06
1.   Big Game
Ron Asheton of the Stooges was found dead this morning. Bummer.
2009-01-06 11:02:19
2.   Eric Stephen
My first thought was, there were still Three Stooges members alive?
2009-01-06 11:03:31
3.   Gen3Blue
I feel sorry for Bills, he seems to have been the target of one or another regression theories for several years now. I hope nothing comes of it, but he's bound to have a bad stretch at some point and make someone right.
2009-01-06 11:04:19
4.   bhsportsguy
Two years ago, J.D. Drew opted out after his second year of a five year contract with the Dodgers. Drew had a relatively injury-free season in 2006 for the Dodgers and had 3/$33M remaining on his deal. But he took his option and signed with the Red Sox for 5/$70M, a 3 million dollar a year raise plus 2 more years.

Carlos Lee made $8.5 million in 2006, he signed with Houston and made $26M in 2007-2008 and will now make $18.5M a year through 2012.

Alfonso Soriano signed that same winter, has made $30M in the last 2 years and will make $106M in the six years.

Both Juan Pierre and Gary Mathews Jr. signed five year deals and they will make 3/$28.5M (Pierre) and 3/$33M (Mathews) through 2011.

In 2007, Torji Hunter and Andruw Jones signed multi-year deals worth at least $18M a year. Aaron Rowand signed a 5/$60M with the Giants. The Cubs also signed Fukudome for 4/$48M.

So far, the only outfielder to sign a multi-year deal worth over $10M a year is Raul Ibanez (3/$31.5M). Milton Bradley is reported to be signing a 3/$30M deal with the Cubs soon.

So why is there such a slow market for corner outfielders. I think the reasons are varied but include the teams that normally spend money have spent it elsewhere (Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Cubs), the small and mid-size market teams are not going to spend 10+ million a year on a corner outfielder, defense has become more important and finally and while home runs are still important, with the PED testing, teams are still trying to figure out which players are legit home run hitters.

2009-01-06 11:06:39
5.   Tripon
4 Sounds like a lot of money tied to outfielders from previous years is whats depressing the market today.
2009-01-06 11:09:12
6.   Disabled List
Let's not forget Clayton Kershaw as another possible victim of the Verducci Effect (that's really what we're calling it? Ok...)

Clayton went from 122 IP in 2007 to 169 last year, with a few more in the playoffs. Not as steep of an increase as Chad, but something to think about.

2009-01-06 11:09:18
7.   bhsportsguy
5 Could be but even guys who were just really DHs like Sheffield, Frank Thomas, etc. were getting good deals. I'll admit that there are no Beltrans in this market but there was a time that Burrell, Abreu, Dunn, Bradley and Manny would have gotten some decent offers by now.
2009-01-06 11:10:24
8.   bhsportsguy
I'd like to see the Phillies cite Tom Verducci in their arbitration hearing with Hamels.
2009-01-06 11:11:36
9.   Ken Noe
4 The major guys still on the market have obvious defensive flaws, and in the case of the two best, Manny and Dunn, questions about how much they really want to play. Plus look at some of the guys you mention--who now would make a case for Fukudome, Lee, Mathews, or Soriano (JP was a center fielder so I'm not sure he counts).
2009-01-06 11:11:37
10.   I Love LA
4 and 5 - sounds like Juan Pierre and A. Jones made huge contributions to the depressing outfield market today.
2009-01-06 11:14:25
11.   I Love LA
Actually I take that back, neither jones or Pierre are corners. Darn I can't blame them for anything today.
2009-01-06 11:15:19
12.   regfairfield
I think the problem is that Tampa Bay was the only team that could use Burrell. His near league worst defense means that he's barely an average player if he isn't a DH, so the NL is out.

It also doesn't help that it's common knowledge now that slow TTO hitters age terribly, so no one would be willing to give him a long term deal.

The other problem for Burrell is every contending team in the AL, except the Rays, has no need for a DH. Tampa Bay saw there was no need for his services anywhere, and took advantage of it.

2009-01-06 11:16:25
13.   Tripon
Free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera is willing to move to second base. Cabrera's agents floated the possibility of such a position change to the Yankees, but the Yankees responded that they are satisfied with Robinson Cano at second. The market for Cabrera appears decidedly cool ...

Should have accepted that arbitration offer there Cabrera....

2009-01-06 11:17:42
14.   bhsportsguy
12 And as I said yesterday, they would have loved to wait and see if they could have paid less because they have players approaching arbitration and they can't spend 12/13% of their payroll on a DH.
2009-01-06 11:24:56
15.   Jon Weisman
My post has been updated.
2009-01-06 11:36:21
16.   Jon Weisman
I'm assuming Penny's official signing with Boston is waiting on a physical. Has anyone heard anything about when one might be scheduled?
2009-01-06 11:37:53
17.   cargill06
16 I think I remember reading Jan. 7th, but I wouldn't take that to the bank.
2009-01-06 11:39:05
18.   CodyS
10 Ironically, Juan Pierre and A. Jones have made huge contributions to depressing Dodgers fans as well.
2009-01-06 11:41:48
19.   delias man
Maybe, just maybe it is not all about the money for Burrell. Doubt it.
2009-01-06 11:42:37
20.   bhsportsguy
18 Jones, yes. Juan Pierre is at best a non-entitiy to the vast majority of fans aside those who read DT, Baseball Prospectus or rooted for a team that Pierre played on before his Dodger tenure.
2009-01-06 11:43:04
21.   kinbote
0 Jon's back with a vengeance. As VN once said of Joyce, "My English is patball to [his] championship game."
2009-01-06 11:43:22
22.   Harold M Johnson
The value of Manny is two-fold, one is for production, the other is for fan excitement (and all that translates into). Baseball is a sport but it's also a business, and Manny is an iconic player and personality that fits perfectly into a team and city that doesn't have a star baseball player.

I think you can legitimately argue that signing a Burrell or Dunn plus better pitchers would get the team a few more wins, but with Manny and lesser pitchers, the team is still the favorite to win the division and has that x factor that drives revenue more then wins alone.

2009-01-06 11:44:16
23.   Eric Stephen
Just doing a quick and dirty analysis using Bill James projected 2009 slash stats and averaging them out, here are the offenses of the top 3 teams in the AL East:

Tampa Bay - .274/.357/.453
Yankees - .289/.364/.468
Boston - .282/.370/.466*

*I used Varitek's 2009 projection at catcher for the Red Sox, even though that position is still in question.

For comparison, here are some potential Dodger lineups, with a few LF choices:

w/Manny - .288/.361/.455
w/Dunn - .281/.359/.452
w/Abreu - .286/.359/.443
w/Pierre - .287/.353/.431

2009-01-06 11:44:32
24.   Tripon
Juan Pierre has his admirers among the Dodgers Stadium fans faithful. If JP was earning $5 million a year instead of $9 million a year, he might be considered underrated and easier to trade.
2009-01-06 11:48:36
25.   cargill06
23 I've been trying to say for weeks the team constructed as is would score more runs than last years team.

Last years team was .264/.333/.399
The team with Pierre .287/.353/.431

2009-01-06 11:51:42
26.   berkowit28
21 Who's VN? I trust that will make it clear which Joyce you mean too. Does everyone else know who he's talking about?
2009-01-06 11:54:01
27.   Jacob Burch
2009-01-06 11:54:31
28.   bigcpa
23 No NL team has batted .287 since 2001. Do you have pitchers in there?
2009-01-06 11:55:13
29.   ToyCannon
Bill James projections are normally quite optimistic.
2009-01-06 11:57:06
30.   Eric Stephen
Ignoring Jones for a moment, last year's projected club (Martin-Loney-Kent-LaRoche-Furcal-Ethier-Pierre-Kemp) averaged out to a .296/.363/.452 projection.
2009-01-06 11:57:38
31.   Eric Stephen
Only the starting 8 (or 9 in the case of the AL East)
2009-01-06 11:57:58
32.   Bluebleeder87
I'm late but I feel I must say this. I use to LOVE reading baseball digest (if it's the one that had/has player profiles) I remember my local library has (Bob T. Do they still have them) them. Anyways, if it's the one I think it is it brought back memories...
2009-01-06 12:02:59
33.   bhsportsguy
32 It was the one that the library used to carry.
2009-01-06 12:13:46
34.   Eric Stephen
Is the parlay dead after last night?
2009-01-06 12:15:53
35.   Tripon
Jon, the link is dead.
2009-01-06 12:16:46
36.   Tripon

Yankees sign JJJ!

2009-01-06 12:17:50
37.   berkowit28
27 Oh, OK. Glad to be out-high-cultured; usually it's the popular culture references I don't get. I thought it must be a reference to some TV sitcom. Mind you, I don't know that I've ever seen Nabokov referred to as "VN" before - perhaps that's more common among his personal friends like kinbote. For most of his life, he would have signed his name with a different alphabet where his initials would look more like "BH" although in that language I'd imagine he'd always include the middle "B" as well. To be outclassed by Joyce when your mother tongue is not English is not necessarily self-deprecating, an attribute VN was not much known for. A sort of left-handed self-put-down.
2009-01-06 12:20:47
38.   bhsportsguy
34 It was dead after the Utes (what did you say?) showed up Bama.

So last night did not matter.

2009-01-06 12:23:30
39.   Terry A
37 - So you're saying "Joyce" probably isn't Joyce DeWitt?
2009-01-06 12:26:58
40.   Disabled List
From the update: "a reasonable estimate would be approximately $16 million per season on a three-year contract, plus an option on a fourth year."

I have such a negative opinion of Boras that I almost feel he would let Manny go play ball in Japan rather than accept a contract less than the one he convinced Manny to opt out of in Boston.

Does anyone seriously think Manny and Boras would accept a 3-year, $48 million deal?

2009-01-06 12:29:20
41.   D4P
I have such a negative opinion of Boras that I almost feel he would let Manny go play ball in Japan rather than accept a contract less than the one he convinced Manny to opt out of in Boston

Sayonara, Maniel-san.

2009-01-06 12:30:24
42.   bhsportsguy
40 No, I still hold by my original prediction I made back in December after the Yankees signed Teixeira, 3/$66 with a team option for the 4th year.

(I saw UD made that guess last night but I did it earlier, so there.) :)

2009-01-06 12:32:58
43.   silverwidow
42 Manny will not accept a lower AAV than Tex.

3/72, guaranteed, with a vesting 28M option will get it done.

2009-01-06 12:32:58
44.   Tripon
Does anyone seriously think Manny and Boras would accept a 3-year, $48 million deal?

No, but Bobby Aberu would.

2009-01-06 12:34:50
45.   I Love LA
Jason Whitlock just wrote on fox sports article openi g up the debate of Peyton being the best reg season QB while looking very average in January. While he may be overacting since Peyton does have a Superbowl MVP, but he argues that Peyton is 7-8 lifetime in Jan 56% completions, 22 TDs 17 INTs. His superbowl run in 4 games were 3 TDs and 7 INTs. Calling his MVP a gift. I'm sure Colts fans and diehard Peyron fans will dispute but his arguments has some legs. I guess that is the diff between Manning and Brady, but then again Brady lost in his last two postseason, ironically both losses were to the Manning brothers. Who would have thought?
2009-01-06 12:35:57
46.   Bob Timmermann
The sum total of MLB players who left while still in something approximating the prime of their careers to go play in Japan is one: Bob Horner.

And he was awful in Japan.

2009-01-06 12:37:25
47.   bhsportsguy
46 Cecil Fielder?
2009-01-06 12:37:59
48.   Jon Weisman
Subway timeline:

2009-01-06 12:38:57
49.   D4P
I think MLB GMs should be acting upon the following two simple premises:

1. Manny will sign a contract with an MLB team this offseason.

2. Manny will accept the best offer.

Among other things, these premises mean that he will sign for less than he initially wanted, if the best offer ends up being less than he wanted.

2009-01-06 12:39:17
50.   Tripon
I remember Ivan Rodriguez threatening to leave for Japan after 2003.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2009-01-06 12:39:23
51.   trainwreck
What about Tom Selleck aka Jack Elliot?
2009-01-06 12:39:27
52.   silverwidow
Chargers WR Vincent Jackson arrested for DUI this morning.
2009-01-06 12:40:10
53.   Tripon

Indians sign Carl Pavano to a one year deal.

2009-01-06 12:40:14
54.   bhsportsguy
49 But how will they know that if they don't tell each other what is the best offer?

Which is of course what the players think they are doing.

2009-01-06 12:41:17
55.   bhsportsguy
52 I know that everyone deserves a private life but really, if you are going to go out during the football season, hire a car service.
2009-01-06 12:42:28
56.   Bob Timmermann
Fielder went to Japan to get experience since he was just a parttime player with the Blue Jays.

And he likely learned how to gamble too.

2009-01-06 12:42:50
57.   GoBears
45. The irony committee rejects that application.

46. Well I might accept that if you limit your sample to guys who were above-average major leaguers. But haven't there been a lot of AAAA types (i.e., with some MLB experience, but not staying power) who went to Japan in their 20s (i.e., prime) and thrived there? Or were they all old guys? Cromartie? Bass? Rhodes? Oh yeah, and Cecil Fielder had a good year with Hanshin before returning to glory in the States, right?

2009-01-06 12:45:20
58.   D4P
But how will they know that if they don't tell each other what is the best offer?

They won't, but that's beside the point. The point is that they don't have to worry about Manny going somewhere else or sitting out if he doesn't get his 4/100.

Now then: whether he'll give a 100% on the field after signing for less than 4/100 is a separate question.

2009-01-06 12:45:26
59.   scareduck
35 - yeah, has been gone for a LONG time.
2009-01-06 12:48:39
60.   GoBears
Ah, a little late on the Fielder idea...
2009-01-06 12:48:39
61.   das411
Didn't Kevin Millar kind of go to Japan too in the 2002-03 offseason, but then decide he wanted to go be all bald and crazy with the Red Sox instead?
2009-01-06 12:50:03
62.   Bob Timmermann
My contention is that there has NEVER been a player of Manny Ramirez's stature who has gone to play in Japan while still able to make a comparable salary in the United States.

Manny Ramirez would command a salary so much higher than any of his teammates that it would severely screw up any Japanese's team finances. Even the Yomiuri Giants.

2009-01-06 12:50:07
63.   scareduck
48 - I used to work for a company that sold train control software to municipalities (including the LA MTA); one of the observations a friend of mine made is that cities with extensive public transit (subways especially) built out their basic routes long before the days of mandatory unionized employees. The big issue is the labor expense, and this is what will likely keep LA's subways from expanding very much (or in a reasonable period of time, anyway).
2009-01-06 12:52:30
64.   blue22
58 - Even if Manny pouts, how does that manifest itself as a negative? He has always continued to pound the ball even when reportedly "dogging it", the fans will continue to love the guy, and there are many, many people who are dubious about the whole "clubhouse impact" amongst teammates, especially when it doesn't involve Bonds- or Kent-level surliness or prima donna-ness (?).
2009-01-06 12:54:37
65.   Bob Timmermann
The Marlins had agreed to sell Millar's contract to the Chunichi Dragons, but Millar got a better deal from the Red Sox and then said it was his patriotic duty to play in the U.S. and it might have been too dangerous to play in Japan.

Millar isn't a popular figure in Japan.

2009-01-06 12:54:57
66.   Xeifrank
Burrell's dollar value the past three years via FanGraphs are, 06-$8.8, 07-$7.8, 08-$12.6 for a three year weighted average of $9.9 M/Yr. Taking into consideration that Burrell hit in a hitters park, is embarking on the down slope of ability (31 yrs old) and what's going on with the economy (ignore what the Yankees have done), it's not a huge bargain by any means. Still a good deal though. I was surprised with the deal, given how most teams ignore the defense aspect of player evaluation along with park factors to a lesser degree. Burrell will be a good fit with the Rays, as they need a RH bat and a two year deal is nice. Should be an interesting AL East race again this year.
vr, Xei
2009-01-06 12:56:40
67.   D4P
Manny Ramirez would command a salary so much higher than any of his teammates that it would severely screw up any Japanese's team finances. Even the Yomiuri Giants.

Even the Ham Fighters?

2009-01-06 12:58:29
68.   D4P
Even if Manny pouts, how does that manifest itself as a negative?

Standing around in the outfield and not running after the ball.

Manny's 2007 Fangraphs Value was $5.1 million.

2009-01-06 12:58:50
69.   GoBears
Oh, "of Manny Ramirez's stature?" Sure, that seems a reasonable claim.

How many players are in that set? 50? 75? Ever? Including pitchers?

Where DOES Manny Ramirez rank all time? As a hitter? For a start, how many RH hitters have been better than Ramirez? Musial? Mays? Aaron? Um... Foxx maybe? ARod?

2009-01-06 13:01:30
70.   Terry A
67 - Trying to get on the Bobelisk, are we?
2009-01-06 13:03:05
71.   cargill06
66 Isn't his dollar value killed by him being a awful LF? If his defensive value 0 (DH defensive value) compared to the -9 every year in LF, wouldn't his dollar value be higher?
2009-01-06 13:04:14
72.   Bob Timmermann
I'm not sure who the highest paid player in Japan is now (Iwase is the highest paid pitcher and he makes $4.5 million per year). I think Seung-yeop Lee may make the most among position players and I think he is in the $5-6 million range.

A Japanese team would have to pay Ramirez $15-20 million a year although it might just be for one year.

And although Manny Ramirez has a reputation for taking a lot of BP, I don't see him going out every day for the extensive infield practice that the Japanese do or reporting to spring training in early February at some remote island.

2009-01-06 13:04:53
73.   Bob Timmermann
He has his own obelisk.
2009-01-06 13:06:56
74.   D4P
Burrell's Batting value the past 4 years:


2009-01-06 13:08:09
75.   ucladodger

He did play in a hitters park, but his home road splits last year didnt indicate that. OPSEd .786 at home, but .964 on the road. The year before, it was the exact oppostie (1.016 home, .795 road). 2006 was basically the same for both (.880 home, .900 road). Also, adding in to what cargill said, his defense negated most of his value. Moving to DH will cancel out the negatives, and leaving the hitters park shouldn't have much of an effect. It's also not like the guy is 35 or 36. He's 32 with only a 2 year deal making less than Juan Pierre (had to throw that in). I cant see any way that this isnt a total win for the Rays.

2009-01-06 13:12:58
76.   underdog
That Pavano 1.5MM contract purportedly also includes "$5.3MM in possible incentives." I'm not sure what those incentives are, but have a feeling he won't be earning them. (Unless they're something like "survives through four innings at least 50% of the time.")
2009-01-06 13:13:26
77.   Tripon
Does dollar amounts take into account playoff stats?
2009-01-06 13:16:21
78.   Marty
I suspect Joe Montana is the best post-season quarterback. D4P?
2009-01-06 13:18:37
79.   D4P
I suspect Joe Montana is the best post-season quarterback. D4P?

Pass. (Pun intended)

2009-01-06 13:18:55
80.   KG16
45 - the truth is, most quarterbacks (like pitchers) have losing records in the post season. First, they play better quality opponents and have less room for error. Think of it like this, QB A goes 13-3 in year one, gets first round bye and home field, in year two he goes 14-2, home field and first round bye. That's 27-5 in the regular season. In year one's post-season he loses in the conference championship, that's a 1-1 record, the following year he loses in the Super Bowl, going 2-1. That means in the post season he's 3-2. Add in a few years of losing in the wild card games and it's very easy to have a losing record in the playoffs.

same principle applies in baseball (and hockey for that matter). For example:

Drysdale - regular season 209-166; post season 3-2
Pedro Martinez - reg season 214-99; post season 9-6
Greg Maddux - reg season 355-227; post season 11-12.

2009-01-06 13:23:27
81.   Gen3Blue
I truly hope that the Dodgers don't go much more than 2/$45 for Manny. I'd really like to feel that the market was setting the price without manipulation from a few guys like Boreass. Of course it is naive to think of 30 odd rich kids trying to see who can get the most marbles as a "free" market.
2009-01-06 13:28:02
82.   Bob Timmermann
Joe Montana had a 16-7 record in the playoffs.
2009-01-06 13:29:19
83.   Bob Timmermann
Terry Bradshaw had a 14-5 record in the playoffs.

Trent Dilfer was 5-1.

2009-01-06 13:34:07
84.   CajunDodger
If small sample sizes are your thing, I would think Doug Williams did pretty well.
2009-01-06 13:37:20
85.   das411
Donovan McNabb The Overrated: 82-45-1 regular season, 8-5 postseason
2009-01-06 13:40:49
86.   Bob Timmermann
Doug Williams was 4-3 in the playoffs. All 3 losses were for Tampa Bay.
2009-01-06 13:41:31
87.   bhsportsguy
85 Although QB is the most important position, health, matchups and home field are bigger factors in the playoffs.
2009-01-06 13:43:57
88.   I Love LA
80 - that is a valid point and I agree to an extent. But if you look at Bradys post season numbers/record, far better than Manning. It's what they say Post Season play will defy a true great/legend. Look at MJ, Kobe (though the jury is still out as he hasn't exelled in the Finals without Shaq or him as #1 option.), D Wade, Duncan, etc. In baseball Reggie Jackson, Manny while guys like A Rod is treated like Peyton is in this said FS article. I'm sure people will argue that Lebron is still a future legend despite an atrocious finals appearence but the guy has been a monster in just about every other series. I'm also sure people will argue that Wade had refs on his side and he played the Mavs defense.

Ok I went off tangent. No doubt I think Peyton is great,but at the end of the day his post season play doesn't justify him in the elite legend category (I'm sure a lot will be a her and ridicue that statement). Superbowl MVP deserves hands down respect, but one can say Eli was just as good if not better in last years playoff run. But nobody would dare call Eli a true great in the same breath as Peyton or Brady and rightfully so since Eli has never posted great numbers like his brother. But post season wise, They are close.

2009-01-06 13:44:16
89.   bhsportsguy
81 What manipulation? Does anyone think that Scott Boras locks GMs up in a room and forces them to sign these deals?

Scott Boras' job is not to keep prices low, his job is to get the best deal for his client and the methods he has to use are almost unlimited.

That said, he is only one side of the negotiation and ultimately he and Manny will have to decide where and when they want to make a stand.

2009-01-06 13:45:17
90.   CajunDodger
Ahhhh...I have a special place in my heart for him. He coached at Grambling when I worked as an auditor at a hotel in the next town. His divorce attorney stayed there and it was part of my job to hand deliver all of the negotiations that were done via fax to her room. I may have "accidentally" seen some of the details.

Had it been when blogs/internet reporting were the rage, I probably could have sold quite a bit of that info to ESPN ;)

2009-01-06 13:51:01
91.   KG16
85 - McNabb's career QB rating is 85.9. Matt Hasselbeck is a career 84.5. Just for comparison's sake. Chad Pennington is at 90.6 for his career. Peyton is at 94.7, and Brady is at 92.9

And yes, I'll stipulate that McNabb is/was a better running QB

2009-01-06 13:51:28
92.   LU Dodger
a "oddest moments of 2008"

How does the dodgers' getting no-hit by the angels and WINNING, not make the 2008 list?

2009-01-06 13:56:08
93.   mwhite06
But nobody would dare call Eli a true great in the same breath as Peyton

Considering just wins and losses, Eli's record his first 5 years is 42-29. Peyton's was 39-38.

Honestly, I'm not a big fan of football statistics. Unlike in baseball, football has way too many variables (receivers, offensive line, weather, coaching etc.) while in baseball a hitter's value is isolated.

2009-01-06 13:56:59
94.   silverwidow
92 Every idiot writer/fan who thinks Billingsley is not an ace should watch that game.
2009-01-06 13:57:52
95.   I Love LA
I think if I was given a team but for the superbowl and playoff starts today and I can pick any current QB, I am going with Brady. Big Ben and Peyton would get 2nd choice consideration. As ridiculous this may sound being a Cowboys fan and Anti-Eli, I'm going with Eli as choice #3, I like his poise and confidence. We shall see how Eli do this weekend and the rest of this post season.
2009-01-06 13:58:47
96.   kinbote
37 Thrilled to read such a great response to a fun quote. Sounds like you know your stuff. (Final footnote: I was devastated on multiple levels when the baseball Vladimir signed with Anaheim.)
2009-01-06 13:58:50
97.   cargill06
I still haven't found a QB with a lower INT% than McNabb in NFL history. I think that is one of the top 3 most important stats for QB's. I don't value rating as much as the next guy it is too heavily skewed on TD passes. A team that is physical will tend to pound the ball more inside a teams 5 yd line, why should that QB be penalized?
2009-01-06 13:59:41
98.   LU Dodger

correction. it was even the oddest baseball moments of 2008. adding insult to injury. Is that something you brag about to your grandkids one day? "yup old billy, your gramps got no-hit that day, but SCOREBOARD!"

2009-01-06 14:01:07
99.   trainwreck
My how things change.

I just found out the new Nip/Tuck season starts tonight.

2009-01-06 14:01:23
100.   bferb
95 Rivers will outplay Big Ben this Sunday (if weather permits throwing the ball)
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2009-01-06 14:02:20
101.   CajunDodger
I never thought that Eli could ever be mentioned in the same breath as Peyton, but if he wins another title...

Oh, random thought, Peyton and the Colts are very much the Braves of the 90s. Fantastic in the regular season, won a championship, but never quite as good as they could/should have been.

2009-01-06 14:06:14
102.   NightCabbie
Hi Everyone,

Longtime lurker and first time poster. I suspect the Dodgers will grow tired of the theatre of Manny and secure messers, Dunn (4yr-51m) and Petite (2yr-27m).

2009-01-06 14:06:22
103.   I Love LA
101- good point, add the 2004-current Pistons squad as well. One championship and great regular season every year but always bounced in the playoff.
2009-01-06 14:10:11
104.   Tripon
Scioscia would not confirm it on Tuesday, but the source told that the extension will carry through 2018, which, if fulfilled, would give him a 19-year run at the helm.

2009-01-06 14:16:18
105.   silverwidow
102 Welcome.

I can't see the Dodgers committing 4 years to Dunn.

2009-01-06 14:18:14
106.   Marty
The Macbook Wheel!

2009-01-06 14:18:53
107.   underdog
104 I posted this on MLBTR but don't know if it will be appreciated like it no doubt will be here (or not.) ;-)

Update: I heard that Scioscia's extension actually runs through the year 3018 and includes clauses that allow for him to be cyrogenically frozen and then his disembodied head put in a jar so he can manage the blernsball version of the Angels.

102 Welcome!

2009-01-06 14:21:23
108.   trainwreck
ESPN has a story saying that Manny's demands are too much for Giants.

I am getting bored of this story. Just sign him and end this nonsense.

2009-01-06 14:22:12
109.   Ken Noe
102 Welcome from a relatively new guy. I don't think Ned goes past three years with anyone, though, not with Lambo in the wings and the possibility of having to stick Furcal or even Blake out there at some point.
2009-01-06 14:23:03
110.   KG16
107 - i was coached by a hank aaron

Scioscia in an Angel's jersey is just one more reason I don't like Davy Johnson or Fox.

2009-01-06 14:24:22
111.   Ken Noe
108 That Ned can play hard to get: Sources tell that in a conversation with the Dodgers last Friday, Boras continued to talk about five-year and four-year deals worth upward of $25 million a year. That caused the Dodgers to turn their attention away from Ramirez and back to the bullpen market, where they're pursuing a group that includes Trevor Hoffman, Juan Cruz, Dennys Reyes and Guillermo Mota.
2009-01-06 14:25:50
112.   NightCabbie
when do we cut bait with Manny? it's gotta be soon.
2009-01-06 14:29:07
113.   underdog
111 Somehow replacing Ramirez with Trevor Hoffman doesn't compute or give one much confidence, though obviously that's not literally what he's doing.

Boras has to be out of his mind at this point. No one, I mean no one, is going to give Manny that kind of contract. That should've been obvious 2 months ago.

2009-01-06 14:29:33
114.   D4P
I'm tentatively impressed with how Ned has handled the Ramirez situation thus far.
2009-01-06 14:29:46
115.   Bob Timmermann
Guillermo Mota

Hey, they're getting the band back together!

2009-01-06 14:30:47
116.   Bob Timmermann
I'm tentatively impressed

The highest compliment you can receive from D4P!

The second highest is "I'm not entirely disappointed."

2009-01-06 14:31:23
117.   Disabled List
I still have a feeling the Yankees are gonna swoop in and give Boras the five-year deal he wants. What Scott wants, Scott gets. I just can't imagine him eating crow and swallowing a two- or three-year deal.

Colletti should be calling Adam Dunn's agent right now.

2009-01-06 14:32:15
118.   bhsportsguy
115 I'll get the wood from the shed and we'll build a stage on the lot on the corner.

Can you get some lemonade and cookies to sell for refreshments?

2009-01-06 14:33:00
119.   Bob Timmermann
Warning to potential Dodger free agents:,,20250316,00.html

2009-01-06 14:34:13
120.   bhsportsguy
117 Scott Boras wanted deals for Kyle Lohse and Jeff Weaver, he's holding onto hope for Derek Lowe.

A-Rod dumped Boras in order to finalize a deal with the Yankees (he did re-up with Boras who worked on the details).

2009-01-06 14:34:25
121.   blue22
95 - Brady...Quinn? I don't think Tom Brady is getting back on a football field anytime soon.
2009-01-06 14:36:37
122.   Bob Timmermann
I'd like to take this opportunity to announce that I am replacing Florian Schneider in Kraftwerk.

I'd been considering the offer for a while.

2009-01-06 14:37:11
123.   bhsportsguy
119 Someone has to pay for those Dugout Seats.
2009-01-06 14:37:16
124.   KG16
119 - Bob has ruined my day.
2009-01-06 14:37:32
125.   Eric Stephen
No need to worry about Russell Martin's partying ways now!
2009-01-06 14:38:37
126.   bhsportsguy
124 But Jennifer Love Hewitt is available.
2009-01-06 14:39:50
127.   Ken Noe
115 Ditto Reyes, the third player in Tommy's infamous Konerko - Shaw deal.
2009-01-06 14:41:38
128.   Disabled List
119 But here's better news for potential Dodger free agents. And wishful-to-the-point-of-delusion Dodger fans:,,20250250,00.html

2009-01-06 14:45:50
129.   madmac
The highest compliment you can receive from D4P!

The second highest is "I'm not entirely disappointed."

Dad? Is that you?

2009-01-06 14:47:20
130.   bhsportsguy
129 You missed "Kid Thoughts" day.
2009-01-06 14:48:59
131.   kinbote
117 If Manny gets a five-year guaranteed deal, I will do something outrageous and entirely out of character given my predisposition.

With an older client, I think the AAV is more important than the years to Boras.

2009-01-06 14:50:20
132.   Zak
48 I love this part -

"Westside to San Fernando Valley transit project along the 405 Freeway -- 2038"

I hope they won't be falling behind schedule.

2009-01-06 14:53:11
133.   Bob Timmermann
I will go move back to Granada Hills in 2038. I'll be 73 years old.
2009-01-06 14:54:15
134.   kinbote
133 By then, 73 will the new 50.
2009-01-06 14:54:29
135.   Zak
133 Well, you REALLY better hope they don't fall behind schedule then.
2009-01-06 14:55:13
136.   bferb
Petros & Money had a hilarious new song about Manny yesterday afternoon that was replayed today on the Cannons. It was set to Manilow's Mandy just like some Red Sox songs that were made last season I think. It can probably be found somewhere on the website but I can't access that site from work.
2009-01-06 14:55:55
137.   bhsportsguy
Last season, I was at a game where some bachlorette winner was there throwing out the first pitch to her fiancee. They showed them meeting Tommy before the game.

They got disengaged, I am sure it was over Manny.

2009-01-06 15:00:52
138.   Bob Timmermann
I hope they got disengaged. Dodger Stadium is family entertainment. Not entertainment that leads to families.
2009-01-06 15:01:45
139.   bhsportsguy
138 I meant they are no long getting married. Geez Bob, get your mind off those "art" books.
2009-01-06 15:02:02
140.   bferb
While we are on the subject.... Brian Sabean's comments on Manny earlier today:

"In our case I'm not sure yet. We're monitoring the situation. We've had talks. We have not made an offer. We've talked in parameters of what would be yearwise. It would have to be a perfect fit dollarwise and more so what we're doing to try and build this thing going forward on a younger basis. It's actually not what we're looking for, except that he's such a profound middle of the order hitter. Which we need."

2009-01-06 15:03:57
141.   I Love LA
121- I mean healthy Tom Brady and in my dream scenerio if all QBs I listed are healthy I'd go with Brady.

This Manny situation is almost getting out of hands. You know both sides are playing games. Ned refusing to budge from 2 years while Boras refuses to budge from 4/5 years in the $100mil range. That's why we see Ned focusing on Bullpen help and contacting Dunn as to scare Boras but the mastermind at games retaliates by talking about The Hated Ones and Manny is cool with it and still leaving the door open for NY to jump in with a 4/100 deal. I think Boras is winning this game and will prevail in the end. Either Ned gives in and Manny gets a big deal, NY takes him for a big deal or The Hated Ones signs him so Boras can stick it to the Dodgers.

2009-01-06 15:04:11
142.   kinbote
These Manny negotiations have more bluffs than San Clemente. Just for fun, I'd love to see Ned, McCourt, and the Assistants Nine walk away from the table saying the asking price is too high. Then what would Boras do? (Probably get the stupidest of the remaining 29 GMs to pony up as much as he could extract.)
2009-01-06 15:04:16
143.   bhsportsguy
140 Before anyone else chimes in, that came from Ned's mentor.
2009-01-06 15:06:12
144.   bhsportsguy
Everyone should realize that for the other 27-28 teams not in the Manny sweepstakes, they don't really care how long this drags out.

And if we were in their shoes, I wouldn't pay much attention to it either.

2009-01-06 15:11:58
145.   Xeifrank
71. Cargill, that's a good question. As a DH Burrell gets docked 1 win on positional adjustment (going from LF to DH). So if his defense is worse than -10.5 runs (it was -10.8 last year) then he does gain some value with the move to DH. The positional adjustment is actually 1.5 wins or 15 runs, but Tom Tango gives DHs a 0.5 win boost because it is harder to DH (PH gets 1 win boost). So there indeed could be a little extra value added by having him DH instead of play LF. 2007 was really the only season so far (using UZR) that this would've been the case, but with him not getting any younger 2009/2010 could see his defense get worse??
vr, Xei
2009-01-06 15:12:53
146.   madmac
130 oh that's right. I remember now. Being a father of three I had strong reactions to some of the posts, but thought it better to not respond.
2009-01-06 15:13:41
147.   fiddlestick
Adam Dunn make a heck of a lot of sense for the Giants.
2009-01-06 15:17:06
148.   Icaros

I've thought so since the start of the offseason. He could play 1B.

2009-01-06 15:17:19
149.   I Love LA
144 - exactly. They are just waiting for an opportunity to sneak in to sign him away if the scenerio presents itself.

The only way Ned wins and Boras loses is Manny accepting the offered 2 year deal, very unlikely. If Ned goes higher in years or dollar amount, Boras wins. If NY or another mysterious team jumps in to sign Manny away, Boras wins cause it will be better than 2yrs/$45mil. If SF signs Manny, Boras wins by KO regardless of the contract. Ned is the underdog in this.

2009-01-06 15:18:54
150.   Andrew Shimmin
If you see somebody hanging half naked from a ski lift and your response is to get a picture of the guy, I think he ought to be allowed to hit you in the mouth the day it ends up on Drudge. One time shot, no criminal or civil liability.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2009-01-06 15:18:58
151.   D4P
If NY or another mysterious team jumps in to sign Manny away, Boras wins cause it will be better than 2yrs/$45mil

Maybe Boras wins in this scenario, but that doesn't necessarily mean Ned loses. An NL team getting Manny for 4-5 years at this point can reasonably be expected to feel like a loser in a few years' time.

2009-01-06 15:19:49
152.   Icaros

Your need to "keep score" between Colletti and Boras seems fairly pointless to me. Who cares?

2009-01-06 15:20:51
153.   Zak
149 I don't know. If Ned comes away with a 3 year 60 mill guaranteed deal, I'd call it a win for Ned.

I really hope that Manny, in his first press conference, when asked about accepting less money than he had hoped to get, responds with a price-of-gas line.

2009-01-06 15:22:08
154.   Eric Stephen
Happy Slapsgiving to him, at least.
2009-01-06 15:22:51
155.   Gen3Blue
89 What Manipulation?

Come on--it's obvious Boras will go to any length to exploit contract loop-holes, spread rumors, use gullible sports writers, and much more to inflate his players contracts!

Now this is all accepted business practice and I am not saying he is doing bad business. But he is manipulative, and that is one of his strengths as an agent. I was perhaps trying to highlight the foibles within the very limited community he is dealing with.

2009-01-06 15:23:52
156.   bhsportsguy
153 Would you ask Pat Burrell that question? No matter what Manny gets, he won't get a 40% cut like Pat just got in his deal.
2009-01-06 15:24:01
157.   Harold M Johnson
151 Only if Manny can't hit. If he can still hit, isn't he still worth something in trade to an AL team, especially one on a playoff run?
2009-01-06 15:26:34
158.   Lexinthedena
I wonder if Burrell just pushed his agent int making sure he played for a team that has a chance of winning, and that plays in the AL. I'm sure he's banking on more money in two years, and nice long DH career.

He may be a special case.

2009-01-06 15:29:13
159.   Zak
156 1. Burrell did not make the quote that Manny made. I found the quote off-color, but I'm not saying it is the worst thing ever.

2. I am just joking, because his quote, unforced, turned out to be pretty unfortunate given both the price of gas and, probably, his services.

3. I like Manny and want him back, but it doesn't matter where he signs, someone will ask him about it.

2009-01-06 15:30:52
160.   Gen3Blue
140 Sabean says almost nothing with more words than most.
2009-01-06 15:31:08
161.   bferb
156 He definitely won't, but he might get 40% of what him and Boras were originally seeking 6 yrs/$150 MM*.40 = 3 yrs (approx)/$60 MM
2009-01-06 15:32:15
162.   Tripon

Alyssa Milano swears off baseball players.

2009-01-06 15:32:24
163.   Zak
156 Also, there is a better than fair chance that he will get a 40% cut from the total guaranteed contract that he was expecting to get. It's not the same thing, but I reckon Burrell is probably happier with his contract situation than Manny is/will be.
2009-01-06 15:34:26
164.   Tripon

I think Jon wanted to see this earlier. Proctor's deal is finalized.

2009-01-06 15:34:32
165.   Icaros

But which guy will be able to play the Ray Liotta role in the stage version of Goodfellas?

2009-01-06 15:37:06
166.   bhsportsguy
162 Bob posted that hours ago. :)

163 I don't know, remember if Manny comes back, for most of the fans, he can do no wrong and he will be the king of Mannyland for as long as he plays here.

The local media (Simers, Plaschke, beat writers) will probably treat him well and even has old-timers like Vinny saying things like "Manny being Manny."

Sure, he won't like the money issue but with Torre as his manager, adoring and non-critical fans and soft media, Manny will have a lot of smiles if he is wearing number 99 in Dodger blue.

2009-01-06 15:38:07
167.   Zak
165 Only if Larry Bowa plays Joe Pesci.
2009-01-06 15:38:43
168.   Bob Timmermann
Tripon does not have an Alyssa Milano Google News alert like I do.

Or perhaps I was just reading People for some other reason.

2009-01-06 15:39:05
169.   D4P
Why did "Milton being Milton" never make its way into Dodger lexicon...?
2009-01-06 15:39:15
170.   Bob Timmermann
I'm betting Jon wasn't losing sleep over that though.
2009-01-06 15:40:47
171.   D4P
I'm betting Jon doesn't have any sleep to lose.
2009-01-06 15:42:23
172.   Zak
166 I hope you are right. I enjoyed Manny's stint as a Dodger tremendously and want him back, but his demands have been outrageous, especially considering there is not a huge market for him. It's almost like the negotiations are being set up to fail.

I do agree though, that if he comes back, he will be cheered loudly, and righfully so. He is no social menace, and there is nothing wrong with trying to find the best contract for yourself. My only point all along is, it's easy to become a target when you make a quote like he did about the price of gas being up.

2009-01-06 15:45:17
173.   Icaros

I don't know. My favorite Milton Memory is when he called Jason Reid an Uncle Tom, then asked "Where's a bottle at?"

2009-01-06 15:46:48
174.   Jon Weisman
164 - I was asking about Penny, but thanks.
2009-01-06 15:49:57
175.   Jon Weisman
Trevor Hoffman's agent thinks he will decide between Brewers and Dodgers in next 48 hours.

And this from Diamond:

"The Dodgers will host their second annual Winter Development Program next week. Here's the list of invited players. Viva Tony Abreu!"

2009-01-06 15:54:14
176.   I Love LA
172- to his defence Gas prices is slowly creeping back up so maybe Manny has a point. When it was low so was his market, now that it's going up again, his market is back.
2009-01-06 15:55:57
177.   cargill06
175 Penny's physical is tomorrow.

The Red Sox have made a minor habit of picking up a once-good, broken-down starter on a one-year deal, reaping modest returns but never quite hitting the big score they were hoping to land. Assuming he passes his physical on Jan. 7, Brad Penny's contract would fit that pattern.

2009-01-06 15:57:47
178.   Eric Stephen
I hope the Brew Crew get their man! In a related story, I'm looking forward to "Harvey's Wallbangers," the story of the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers. It will air on MLB Network Saturday at 8am.
2009-01-06 16:03:09
180.   Kevin Lewis

What could we be possibly be offering Hoffman?

2009-01-06 16:03:42
181.   scareduck
179 - ... ever so carefully eliding a Rule 1 violation...
2009-01-06 16:08:44
182.   DaDoughboy
If I have to hear 'Hells Bells' at Dodger and train my body to be happy about it my head may explode.
2009-01-06 16:10:15
183.   CanuckDodger
175 -- Jon, I recall that last year you went to Dodger Stadium for a day while that Winter Development Program was happening, and you picked up a lot of information. Are you going again this year? Please say yes.
2009-01-06 16:10:39
184.   blue22
Hoffman gets the token 3-run lead 9th innings. Broxton and Hu get the high leverage "smoke-jumper" innings. I think Hoffman can still get people out - it's not a Joe Borowski situation.
2009-01-06 16:11:59
185.   blue22
"Hells Bells" would be the worst part though. I get so disappointed everytime I hear that opening and it ends up not being "For Whom The Bell Tolls".
2009-01-06 16:12:31
186.   Jon Weisman
183 - I'm trying to figure out if my schedule will permit it. Last year I had the cover of Variety's special section on the Dodgers to work under.

179 - I feel like I should delete that.

2009-01-06 16:14:37
187.   Harold M Johnson
185 HAHA same here... maybe that can be Broxton's theme? For a hill men would kill why they do not know!
2009-01-06 16:14:48
188.   fordprefect
Nice moves.
2009-01-06 16:15:22
189.   Harold M Johnson
oh wait, that's the wrong metallica song isn't it. anyway...
2009-01-06 16:15:26
190.   Eric Stephen
What if we think of 179 as referencing such glorious baseball terms as the "5.5 hole" that Tony Gwynn often hit through?
2009-01-06 16:15:48
191.   Harold M Johnson
no wait, it is the right one (always google BEFORE posting), sorry
2009-01-06 16:16:04
192.   blue22
189 - Right album!
2009-01-06 16:16:32
193.   madmac
179 - I feel like I should delete that.

I was suprised you hadn't, I certainly thought it worthy.

2009-01-06 16:16:53
194.   Eric Stephen
That's the silver lining. Not to mention keeping Broxton's arb costs down by him not racking up saves.
2009-01-06 16:17:33
195.   blue22
192 - oops, yeah I had the wrong lyric in mind there too.
2009-01-06 16:20:13
196.   bhsportsguy
Of the players invited last year, only these three remain in the minors that are not invited to this year's camp, Mario Alvarez, Greg Miller and Justin Orenduff. Alvarez recently signed a minor-league deal and he is going to be out all year with an injury I believe. Orenduff still had 2 more options left. The big question mark is Greg Miller who was probably the first player signed by Logan White to get national attention.

Miller, who is out of options, has never regained the form he had back when he first was signed as was touted as the lefty part of the next great righty/lefty duo (Jackson being the righty).

Miller will be someone on the bubble all spring but he has done nothing to indicate that he should be on a 25 man roster come April.

2009-01-06 16:20:59
197.   CajunDodger
I like the idea of putting the best guy out there more than protecting McCourt's wallet. I hope that Hoffman, if he is signed, will do well as a closer, but I am not sure if the $5-6 million spent on him would best be served on another lesser bullpen arm and adding money to the starting staff.
2009-01-06 16:22:12
198.   silverwidow
Andruw's theme should be "Take the Money and Run" by Steve Miller Band.
2009-01-06 16:24:42
199.   DaDoughboy

Just don't Google 179.

2009-01-06 16:27:39
200.   bferb
Hot Stove updates:

Phillies sign Marcus Giles to a minor league deal to help while Utley is out. Mariners sign Tyler Walker. Giambi signing official. Orioles sign Koji Uehara

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2009-01-06 16:35:35
201.   Jon Weisman
For ToyCannon:

Miami Heat releases Shawn Livingston

2009-01-06 16:37:36
202.   kinbote
I'd like to go on the record as being against a Trevor Hoffman signing, though I could be convinced otherwise. If he's after saves, Milwaukee should be his choice.
2009-01-06 16:38:32
203.   Lexinthedena
201 Sad story. I thought he was going to be great. I hate when an injury ruins a career. Unless it's Bill Gramatica of course.
2009-01-06 16:39:27
204.   underdog
You know, I have to say if the Giants sign Manny I'm going to genuinely be worried. I think they'll be the favorites in the NL West next year and for some good reason. For all the faults of a longer term deal with Manny, he is a true difference maker on offense. My thought all along has been that the Giants rumors are just that, and just leverage for Boras to get the Dodgers to go higher. But now it seems there's more to the Giants' interest than that. My hope all along was that the Dodgers re-sign Manny, and the Jones restructuring should help that happen. And if they don't re-sign him, that he goes to the AL, somewhere he can't come back to haunt the Dodgers on a daily basis.

So now I really hope they bring him back, even if it means one more year than they'd like (although hopefully one less year at least than Boras would like).


2009-01-06 16:44:24
205.   Tripon
Just wondering, who's the backup first baseman for the Dodgers, currently? Casey Blake?
2009-01-06 16:48:15
206.   underdog
205 Loretta, I'd imagine.

He has a .993 fielding percentage in 197 games at first, pretty versatile.

Unless they re-sign Nomar, which is doubtful, or give John Lindsey a job this Spring. :-)

2009-01-06 16:49:01
207.   Tripon,-Brewers-talk-contract-parameters

Looks like Hoffman is signing with the Brewers.

2009-01-06 16:49:45
208.   I Love LA
203- I wouldn't call it ruined just yet, he is 21 or 22? Granted he has a long way to go to make it back to how he was before the injury. The Heat are so high on Chalmers, plus with D Wade and D. Cook, livngston never had the chance to crack their 3-4 guard rotation.

Maybe the Lakers can take a look at him, he fits the triangle mold and phil likes big guards. He can get spot minutes behind Fisher and Sasha while awaiting Farmars return.

2009-01-06 16:54:28
209.   Sam PHL
204. Honest question: why are people so high on the Giants this offseason? They had 68 pythag wins last year. So they would need to improve by 13 wins just to get to .500.

They have made some good moves, but I still don't see them as having that large of an improvement.

2009-01-06 16:56:57
210.   Tripon

Yankees sign Angel Berroa to a minor league deal. What is it with the Yankees with former 2008 marginal Dodgers players?

2009-01-06 17:04:31
211.   DaDoughboy
The only upside I could see with getting The Hoff is if coaches and staff believe Brox still needs another year of mental seasoning.
2009-01-06 17:04:31
212.   DaDoughboy
The only upside I could see with getting The Hoff is if coaches and staff believe Brox still needs another year of mental seasoning.
2009-01-06 17:06:23
213.   Lexinthedena
210 Maybe it's the prelude to a Manny signing.
2009-01-06 17:06:23
214.   Tripon
The upside of signing Hoffman for the Dodgers is for them to avoid paying Broxton an extra $3 or 4 million in arbitration.
2009-01-06 17:06:44
215.   I Love LA
210- good, does this mean we only see Hu or Dejesus at backup shortstop? Watching Angel for majority of 2008 at SS was depressing.
2009-01-06 17:07:14
216.   bhsportsguy
Who said the following today?

"I think whenever you represent a free agent player and he signs somewhere, part of the process is one where everyone is going to say they were strung along. Obviously, in my business, you're either called a shopper or a puffer; one of the two, you're going to be labeled with. You do the things you need to do, in good faith, when dealing with teams."

"As far as Boston goes, I think Boston knows they got good faith proposals and they were given proposals, which means, if accepted, the player would have signed the proposal. If teams reject them, they cannot in any way suggest they were strung along."

2009-01-06 17:08:45
217.   dzzrtRatt
210 It's a nice story. Rescued from the scrap heap by the Dodgers, now ready to ride the pine all the way to the World Series, maybe.
2009-01-06 17:09:46
218.   dzzrtRatt
216 Too easy. SB.
2009-01-06 17:11:16
219.   bferb
216 Boras
2009-01-06 17:11:53
220.   D4P

Suffering Bruin? Stephen Bishop? Steve Buscemi?

2009-01-06 17:13:13
221.   JimBilly4
If this Burrell signing is an actual indication that this is a down year (at least for leftfielders), it might be a good time to try and grab talent, especially if you are a top market team with a bit left in your goody bag.

How about this random thought they traipsed across my brain pan: Sign Dunn to a 4 year deal, especially if you can get closer to 40 million than 50 million. He is still young and clearly can hit the long ball as consistently as anyone. The best time to do a long term deal is when the market is down, at least for a younger player. Next, continue going after Manny. Where is he going to go now that no team truly needs him? If you can get him for a lot less than previously thought then you have engineered a bargain off-season. If he tells you to go tell it on a mountain and signs with San Fran, fine, we got Dunn and a pocket of money left. If we do sign him, package up Loney and get some pitching. As much as I love Loney, a Manny/Dunn power combo would be fairly sweet.

There, hot stove nonsense out of my system. Continue as before.

2009-01-06 17:14:25
222.   underdog
First Jason Johnson, now Angel Berroa! When will the madness stop, Yankees? Stop raiding our coffers!


209 I don't know if people are that high on the Giants; it's more just acknowledgment that the division is still pretty week and thus winnable, and that they have very good young pitching, a few potentially good young hitters (though most of them either don't scare me at all or aren't "there" yet) and they've improved their bullpen a little. My worry as noted above is that if you add to that a guy like Manny that could be enough. As it stands I'm not quite as worried about them. I'd see them as possibly a 3rd place team that could move up, though.

2009-01-06 17:16:05
223.   popup
Thanks go out to Jon, Andy Holden of Baseball Direct, and those who bought the dvd of game 5 of the 1965 World Series. 9 copies of the dvd were sold by Baseball Direct, and a check for $45 was sent today to the American Red Cross of Greater Los Angeles.

Stan from Tacoma

2009-01-06 17:19:28
224.   Jon Weisman
223 - Stan, I owe you e-mails .. I apologize.
2009-01-06 17:20:15
225.   Icaros
Am I the first commenter to commit a rule one violation without using an actual profanity? Cool!
2009-01-06 17:20:36
226.   Jon Weisman
225 - Nah, not even close :)
2009-01-06 17:22:48
227.   Xeifrank
209. Good point. But keep in mind the team they finished the year with was not the same one they started with. For example, over the last 24 games of the season they had a pythag winning percentage of .500. Yes, it's not a large sample size, but enough of a trend to make you take notice considering all their additions this year.
vr, Xei
2009-01-06 17:27:31
228.   Tripon

At least Angel Berroa will help out the Yankees Triple-A affliate. Berroa posted a .842 OPS last year with the Royals Triple-A team.

2009-01-06 17:36:12
229.   popup
224. Jon, not a problem. By the way, I just discovered a few days ago that the radio broadcast of game 4 of the 1988 World Series with Vin, Ross and Don Drysdale has been preserved and is available. I have always wanted to have a Vin/Don Drysdale/Ross Porter broadcast in my collection. For it to be one of the best post season games I have ever seen will only add to the enjoyment. I can't wait to hear Vin's call of the Scioscia homerun. If it was Don or Ross doing the play by play that will be ok, but I really hope it was Vin

Stan from Tacoma

2009-01-06 17:37:47
230.   popup
my bad, in 229 it should read game 4 of the 1988 NLCS. That NLCS seemed like a World Series.

Stan from Tacoma

2009-01-06 17:37:55
231.   Jon Weisman
Saw on Baseball Musings that the Braves Journal blogger has cancer.

2009-01-06 17:39:34
232.   Bob Hendley
215 - Castro lurks.
2009-01-06 17:56:16
233.   Tripon
222 Yankees really need to make it a trifecta and trade for Andruw Jones.
2009-01-06 18:00:14
234.   underdog
At least Juan Castro can field. I'm not sure what Berroa offers there other than the ability to perform the hidden ball trick. Great fun at parties!
2009-01-06 18:11:57
235.   Alex41592
Celtics down three in Charlotte to the 12-22 Bobcats with 6:40 to go in the 4th.
2009-01-06 18:13:00
236.   Tripon
Bill Shaikin is reporting that the San Francisco Giants have a very real interest in signing Manny Ramirez -- and might even consider offering a three-year contract.

2009-01-06 18:20:10
237.   underdog
236 Yeah, that was the report that caused me to post 204 . We'll see if that causes some sort of newly energized talks between LA and Man-Boras.
2009-01-06 18:21:03
238.   Eric Stephen
I missed most of the Lakers/Utah game on Friday night (I was watching Valkyrie), so I missed this pretty awesome play by Pau Gasol:

2009-01-06 18:23:14
239.   Dodgers49
Off Topic:

Having lost one of my brothers to pancreatic cancer a few months ago this story really hit home.

Patrick Swayze on Cancer: 'I'm Going Through Hell'

2009-01-06 18:23:37
240.   Brent Knapp
Underdog, from previous thread you mentioned you needed a tape deck. I have a good component Sony one I'd love to get rid of.
2009-01-06 18:35:46
241.   Ken Noe
I wish I could escape the premonition that the Giants' interest in Manny is just like their interest in Pierre, a way to tie Ned and McCourt's money in knots.
2009-01-06 18:43:51
242.   bhsportsguy
Charlotte has some nice guards in Felton and Augustin.
2009-01-06 18:44:58
243.   bhsportsguy
242 Bobcat's lead by 7 with 57 seconds left.
2009-01-06 18:45:06
244.   LogikReader
Live look in of Bos/Cha on nba tv now!
2009-01-06 18:47:23
245.   Dodgers49
If the Yankees are really concerned about paying Pettitte how would they be players in the Manny sweepstakes?

Report: Yanks inclined to lower $10M Pettitte offer

2009-01-06 18:52:45
246.   Alex41592
Celtics are now 2-5 in their last seven games. Vs. Houston and @ Cleveland next up.
2009-01-06 18:53:31
247.   bhsportsguy
Boston has now dropped 5 out of 6 since their Christmas day loss at LA.
2009-01-06 18:54:13
248.   Bob Timmermann
But what about the last 8 games?

Or the last 5 games?

I need different sample sizes!

2009-01-06 18:56:19
249.   bhsportsguy
246 I stand corrected.
2009-01-06 18:56:43
250.   I Love LA
Bobcats won...I am still afraid of Boston. I think that team will be fine. They have proven that they can overcome adversity. Last year they started off real well, started losing a few games and people started doubting yet they still won 66 games. In the playoffs they were tested to 7 games against the Hawks and Cavs. People didn't think they'd win the title and we all know what happened. They will overcome this recent struggle. I am positive at this point it will be Celtics vs Cavs in the ECF and unless Lebron goes nuts like he did vs the Pistons, I give the defending champs the nod to go back to the Finals. Hopefully the Lakers will be there for a rematch.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2009-01-06 18:56:57
251.   Indiana Jon
Ken Burns Baseball tonight. I love this channel. You really should give it a try Bob.
2009-01-06 18:57:03
252.   LogikReader

I think it's 4 of 6, since they also beat up Washington at home, but the C's have lost 4 of the last 5 on the road

2009-01-06 18:57:58
253.   Tripon
The Celtics needs the Clippers to waive Baron Davis, and Marcus Camby ASAP.
2009-01-06 18:59:53
254.   Tripon Tim Brown thinks J.C. Romero is full of it.
2009-01-06 19:00:49
255.   I Love LA
wow just for a moment on NBA.COM on the Celtics page there was an article that read "The Celtics Escapes Charlotte with a Win." What the heck? Are Boston sportswriter that cocky? I guess karma got to them tonight. I wish I can printscreen and paste it here.
2009-01-06 19:01:11
256.   Bob Timmermann
Bringing up Ken Burns' Baseball to me is like telling D4P you think Joe Montana is the greatest quarterback who ever lived.
2009-01-06 19:01:46
257.   I Love LA
253 - Well the Celtics are looking at Marbury. Given this recent struggle, they will panic and probably sign him since him and KG are BFF's.
2009-01-06 19:02:21
258.   GoBears
I never saw the Burns documentary. Or rather, I saw only snippets. But I heard it's not all that good. What do those who've seen it think? I'd be particularly interested in Eric Enders's opinion.
2009-01-06 19:02:26
259.   bhsportsguy
250 Its way early to try and figure out what will happen in June. I'll always remember 2001 when the Lakers were plodding along and then they went and won a whole bunch of games in a row starting in April and only lost one game in the playoffs.
2009-01-06 19:03:05
260.   Tripon
Paul Pierce scored 28 points, but had a key turnover in overtime. Ray Allen scored 20 points on 7-of-20 shooting for the Celtics.

That's all that needs to be said. Relying on Ray Allen for 20 shots is bad form.

2009-01-06 19:04:07
261.   bhsportsguy
258 Keith Olbermann tallied up all the errors somewhere.
2009-01-06 19:07:04
262.   I Love LA
259 - The Lakers were defending champs in 2001 and there really wasn't any doubt about them repeating. They were not blowing teams away in the regular season but that team was not really in danger. The Spurs were their only legit threat that year. A title always goes through the defending champs. I can't remember the NBA ever having a surprise team that won the title. The champs are pretty much always the contenders from the start.
2009-01-06 19:08:09
263.   bhsportsguy
2009-01-06 19:10:13
264.   bhsportsguy
262 Except between 1969-1988. Also you can ask the Spurs about repeating. In fact since 1998, only the Lakers threepeat is the only time a team has defended its title.

I would say the Rockets winning in 1994 or 1995 was a surprise.

2009-01-06 19:11:14
265.   bhsportsguy
264 And probably every team between 1974-1979 because no one cared who won the NBA title.
2009-01-06 19:13:29
266.   Alex41592
The Celtics lead the league in turnovers committed. They have issues they have to deal with quickly or the Cavs will run all over them Friday night and/or the Eastern Conference Finals which the Cavs could have home court.
2009-01-06 19:15:51
267.   I Love LA
264 - I know what you are saying, but I said the title will go through the defending champs not necessarily mean they will be successful defending. I don't think the 94 or 95 Rockets was a surprise, Hakeem was poised for his first title that year and had homecourt in the finals. 95 you can say it was a surprise because they were the first ever #6 seed to win the title, BUT they were also defending champs so no surprise there. Shaq and Penny were still really young and Hakeem was in his prime destined for greatness.
2009-01-06 19:17:23
268.   Tripon
I'm not worried about this year's Celtics team. After all, they're still coached by Doc Rivers.
2009-01-06 19:21:43
269.   GoBears
It's hard to be surprised by things that you already know happened. It's too easy to see, in retrospect, why they weren't surprising. This isn't dishonesty necessarily - it's post-doc rationalization, a general human need to seek causes and find them.

"Hakeem was poised" is easy to say now. Not so easy at the time.

2009-01-06 19:26:10
270.   Indiana Jon
258 It seems ok to me so far. This first episode has only dealt with 19th century baseball, of which I know almost nothing, so it's been interesting. My guess is some of it may not quite be as factual as Bob would like, but to me it's been a decent show.
2009-01-06 19:27:05
271.   Bob Timmermann
Every time there is a surprising result in a sporting event, I await a story from a writer telling how the result wasn't a surprise.

2009-01-06 19:27:20
272.   Alex41592
Radmanovic will start tonight over Ariza.
2009-01-06 19:29:02
273.   I Love LA
269 - Actually 94 was the first post Jordan year so nobody really knew who would win the title during the regular season. But in the playoffs I remember thinking the Rockets and Hakeem looking real good. In the finals I picked them over NY, only surprise was that it took 7 games. I thought it would take 5. In 95 I didn't think the Magic was quite ready and since Hakeem and Co. were defending champs, I wasn't surprise to see them win it. 96 Jordan was back full fledge so therefore it was his again.
2009-01-06 19:33:16
274.   I Love LA
272 - since Ariza didn't fare well in his last start while Radman took advantage of his minutes and scored in double figures. I think Ariza is better coming off the bench.
2009-01-06 19:43:32
275.   Bob Timmermann
Wait till you start hearing Doris Kearns Goodwin talking about growing up as a Dodgers fan. Most of her stories were fabricated.

Wait until you get to the lengthy sections on famous teams like the St. Louis Cardinals.

Just keep waiting.

I believe Stan Musial will appear in the documentary for about 2 minutes.

2009-01-06 19:50:54
276.   Bob Timmermann
In Ken Burns world, baseball was played in New York, Boston, and Chicago. The only exceptions were the Negro Leagues.
2009-01-06 19:51:50
277.   I Love LA
Andrew Bynum has been terrible
2009-01-06 19:58:57
278.   I Love LA
Hornets are taking it to the Lakers
2009-01-06 20:06:11
279.   immouch
270, 275, 276
at some point, in hour 4,891, they play Take Me Out the the M-freaking Ballgame on kazoo or ukelele or whatever and your brain melts. but, you know, in a bad way. i never found baseball annoying before. not even once. then came ken burns. and his haircut. and doris goodwin with obnoxious stories about her father and the dodgers and open windows. and much, much earnestness. and... well, i flipped to wheel of fortune or something.
2009-01-06 20:08:38
280.   Jon Weisman
270 - I know it's flawed, but I enjoyed it.
2009-01-06 20:19:10
281.   underdog
240 Brent, thanks, sorry I keep missing your posts/offers! Are you in the SF Bay Area?

Also, it's ironic, because I had a pretty good tape deck up til last year and then finally gave up on needing it and needed more space so I donated it. Now I wish I hadn't, but I wonder if it's worth me reacquiring one. Anyway, let me know if you're in the area, I might be tempted. Otherwise, I think I may just try to copy the unique tapes to MP3/CD and save a few of the boxes for nostalgia. Thanks either way, though!

2009-01-06 20:19:53
282.   underdog
Graham Greene adaptation movie marathon on Turner Classic Movies! Fallen Idol is on right now. Even Bob gets this channel!
2009-01-06 20:22:17
283.   Gen3Blue
If SF can be jacked into giving 3 years to Manny, it could slow down their rebuilding plan, and won't do enough at present. It would have some of the Bonds effect without as much positive.
2009-01-06 20:32:12
284.   Icaros
Bob only gets 13 channels, four in English.
2009-01-06 20:33:04
285.   Brent Knapp
No unfortunately I'm in the LA area. But, I live in Playa del Rey which is next to LAX so you have a standing offer if you ever fly into LAX (and you want to fly home with a tape deck). My brother just sent in all of his CD's to a company that converts them all to MP3 or FLAC and puts them on a hard drive for you. If you have enough tapes it might be worth doing something like that.
2009-01-06 20:37:40
286.   Tripon

J.C. Romero is not appealing his suspension.

2009-01-06 20:40:26
287.   underdog
285 - Thanks! I'll let ya know if I'm in the 'hood, but otherwise may do that conversion thing as you suggest. Cheers.

Okay, back to work, TV off, check. 'Net off, check. Cats off lap, check. Desk feng shui cleared... sigh.

2009-01-06 20:47:32
288.   Tripon

This is hilarious.

2009-01-06 21:01:29
289.   Bluebleeder87
oh man.
2009-01-06 21:03:51
290.   Blue Crew
MLB Network has "Dodger Blue" on right now (9pm Pacific). Sorry if this was already posted. I saw it on TV and had to jump on the site to let you know.


2009-01-06 21:17:09
291.   Tripon

Tim Brown reports that Dodgers offered Hoffman a one year deal with an option.

2009-01-06 21:17:34
292.   Bluebleeder87

I didn't realize it was flawed (until just now, thanks Bob T.) i'm gonna be really honest here, I loved it when I first watched it...

2009-01-06 21:19:42
293.   Bob Timmermann
Keep in mind everyone that I am, as always, no fun.
2009-01-06 21:19:46
294.   eusmus
Kobe Bryant with 34 points on 14 shots ...
2009-01-06 21:22:24
295.   Jon Weisman

"Dodgers owners Frank and Jamie McCourt were honored in this week's edition of the Los Angeles Business Journal, being named L.A.'s Power Couple of the Year."

2009-01-06 21:25:38
296.   Bluebleeder87
looking at Trevor Hoffman's #'s he is still a good enough pitcher I guess (if it were up to me I wouldn't sign him to be honest) but I can't say I trust Brox either.

I guess what I am trying to say is that I miss Saito already...

2009-01-06 21:28:52
297.   bhsportsguy
295 My only quibble, exactly who is their competition?
2009-01-06 21:28:59
298.   El Lay Dave
Chan Ho Park's contract with the Phillies:

It's one year, $2.5M and he "can earn an additional $2.5 million in performance bonuses based on starts from 15-27, innings from 110-170, games from 30-70 and games finished from 35-55."

I'm guessing he doesn't earn too many of those incentives - maybe games appeared in.

2009-01-06 21:41:30
299.   trainwreck
They are no Lindsay Lohan and Samantha Rosen.
2009-01-06 21:41:45
300.   trainwreck
Or whatever her name is.
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2009-01-06 21:42:26
301.   Eric Stephen
Lakers will not only have to overcome Chris Paul and David West, but now Ralph Lawler.

101-99 NO 6:45 left.

2009-01-06 21:58:47
302.   Eric Stephen
I think it's time for Joey Crawford to hang up his whistle. The man must get paid per call.
2009-01-06 22:02:23
303.   kinbote
I'm starting to get that We're-going-to-sign-Hoffman vibe. It reminds me of the way I felt right before we signed Devon White (though Fred McGriff is a more appropriate comparison).
2009-01-06 22:07:04
304.   Xeifrank
Poor Kobe can't even take a rest. They sit him for a few minutes and the team falls apart (including him).
vr, Xei
2009-01-06 23:09:44
305.   I Love LA
The team went into 3 point chucking mode for the entire 4tb quarter and thus they lost.
2009-01-06 23:18:58
306.   LU Dodger

Tripon, thanks for that. I don't know if anyone on this board appreciated that as much as I did lol.

2009-01-06 23:52:31
307.   underdog
I personally wouldn't mind the Dodgers adding Trevor Hoffman, as now sounds quite possible. I just wouldn't like the idea of him being our closer. I think as a reliever he can still be effective, and could see him motivated to do well against his old club, for one. (Though motivation and actual results often matter very little, for pitchers especially.) But, yeah, I don't see him as a closer any more, and four million seems a bit pricey for a set up guy, even one with his career numbers.

Ah well.
Sign Manny. Sign another pitcher -- Sheets, Wolf, or cheaper, Looper. And then I don't mind Hoffman. Sign Dustin Hoffman for all I care!

2009-01-06 23:52:52
308.   bablue
Question: Why does it seem people are universally against signing Trevor Hoffman? It seems that most people think he had a down year, but really this was his best year in his last four. In 2008 he had a xFIP of 3.59, which was his lowest since 2004. He also allowed the least line drives and induced the most ground balls that he has in the last five years and had a crazy good 5:1 K/BB ratio (9.9 K/G and 1.9 BB/G).

He was extremely unlucky allowing homeruns on 17.1% of flyballs (over twice his career average, MLB average is 10-11%). which accounts for the high ERA. This is mostly a luck-based stat so he should drop back down next year.

Fangraphs has Hoffman projected for a 3.5 FIP over 54 innings. In this article:

Hoffman is projected to be worth about 1.75 to 1.95 wins next year as a closer, meaning he should be worth 8.5-9.5 million. If we could sign him for 5-6 million he comes as a bargain at little risk while also keeping Broxton's arbitration numbers down. Now if his signing keeps us from getting Manny or a good starting pitcher then that changes things but given that our payroll right now is about 77 million according to Eric Stephen here:

we should be able to get Manny, Hoffman, and a SP for 10M or so and still come in no higher than last years payroll. Basically, I think Hoffman is a good signing as long as it doesn't keep us from filling the other needs (Manny and a SP).

2009-01-07 00:12:25
309.   dzzrtRatt
256 Has Bob ever written the definitive critique of Ken Burns' Baseball on The Griddle? I'd love to read it.

I can't stand Burns' plodding tone, the celebrity cameos and the disproportionate share of PBS' budget for documentary films that he consumes. But I do watch "Baseball" just because of the subject matter. Where am I being misled?

2009-01-07 00:13:55
310.   dzzrtRatt
Why does it seem people are universally against signing Trevor Hoffman?

Include me out of this universal opposition. I think it'd be great to have him on the Dodgers, assuming the price is right and he's flexible about his role.

2009-01-07 00:23:34
311.   bablue
Okay I shouldn't have said universal, as evidenced by 307 as well, but it seems like a strong majority are against Hoffman on the Dodgers for even 3-4 million for 1 year, which I think is a steal.
2009-01-07 00:32:16
312.   Eric Stephen
From a Keith Law chat in November:

Mike (San Diego): Hoffman wound't accept the Padres' $4 million one year offer with a club option. Do you think he can really do better on the open market?

SportsNation Keith Law: No. I think that offer amounted to charity.

That seems a little harsh. Especially given the numbers posted by bablue in 308 .

2009-01-07 00:32:43
313.   I Love LA
If we resign Manny I can careless who we sign or don't sign. Hoffman, Andy P, Sheets, Cruz, whatever.

If we lose Manny, they can bring back Ramon, Orel, Fernando, Strawberry, Eddie Murry, Sandy, Raul, Mike, Karros for all I care I will be very very angry.

2009-01-07 00:35:45
314.   trainwreck
He probably had his best year because it was his possible walk year.
2009-01-07 00:53:36
315.   bablue
Maybe, but he's likely to be at least somewhat effective and not very expensive. Just because Ned has a propensity to overvalue PVL's does not mean all PVL's are bad. By the comments you would think Hoffman was awful or something.
2009-01-07 00:55:30
316.   68elcamino427
Great post.
2009-01-07 00:59:38
317.   68elcamino427
against signing Trevor Hoffman?

Give me your old - your tired - your broken down.
Give me your players whose best days are far behind them?

2009-01-07 01:05:03
318.   bablue
His best days are certainly behind him, but if he's still good, it doesn't matter. Besides, we wouldn't be paying him like he was in his prime. We're talking about a 1 year deal for around 5 million here, what better value are you going to get out of that?
2009-01-07 01:22:20
319.   Sagehen
Re: Ken Burns Baseball. The volume on the 50s is really a documentary of New York baseball in the 50s, which was when my New Yorker parents and maternal grandfather were in love with the Dodgers. I was, as a result, born a Dodger fan (albeit in Seattle). I love the 50s chapter because it tells me why I'm a Dodger fan.
2009-01-07 01:43:26
320.   Dodgers49
313 If we lose Manny, they can bring back Ramon, Orel, Fernando, Strawberry, Eddie Murry, Sandy, Raul, Mike, Karros for all I care I will be very very angry.

I'm mostly with you but my anger
would disappear if they brought back Sandy. :-)

2009-01-07 02:01:32
321.   Dodgers49
Dodgers offer one-year deal to all-time save leader Trevor Hoffman

>> The Dodgers will meet or beat their season-ticket sales from last year even if they do not sign Ramirez, chief operating officer Dennis Mannion said.

The club projects to sell about 24,000 season tickets, the same as last year, he said. The sales pace is ahead of last year, he said, citing the Dodgers' first trip to the NL championship series in 20 years and the price freeze on season tickets.

Renewal payments are due Friday, and Mannion said he does not expect the uncertainty over Ramirez to impact most of the roughly 10% of accounts still outstanding. <<

2009-01-07 02:40:59
322.   68elcamino427
Is Mannion the offical "Propaganda Officer" of the Dodgers?
2009-01-07 02:54:22
323.   68elcamino427
The home run stat from last season is not anomalous -
it's no more "fast" on the fastball.

imho - taking $5,000,000.00 out into the parking lot behind the left field pavillion and setting it afire would be about the same value as giving it to this guy.

2009-01-07 03:57:26
324.   Bumsrap
I doubt that I would bid more than $1 for Hoffman in a Fantasy League.

He wants 600 saves before he retires so he will want to pitch for a few years if he is not the closer.

2009-01-07 04:00:11
325.   Bumsrap
My prediction if Ned signs Hoffman is that Ned will be gone by July.
2009-01-07 04:37:26
326.   Ken Noe
Cruz and Reyes had better 2008 numbers, would be presumably cheaper, and are younger. Once again, Ned is going by "gamer" reputation rather than reality. "Hell's Bell's" won't replace "Game Over," much less Mannywood.
2009-01-07 05:18:12
327.   Bluebleeder87
I tend to agree with you Ken Noe (especially cause you know'eth all) his #'s look o.k. but his age is a big red flag for me...

I dare you to look at Saito's numbers here [] & tell me those numbers are easy to replace.

2009-01-07 06:49:23
328.   D4P
Seems to me that the bullpen is one of the last places the Dodgers should be spending money on right now.
2009-01-07 07:14:48
329.   Bob Hendley
Agreed. But I also agree with the notion that with Hoffman in the traditional closer role our better relievers are available for high leverage situations. If we pick up one of the younger, cheaper relievers I think that Torre might just stick Brox into the closer role. He'll like picking up the saves, but not sure that it is best for the ballclub.
2009-01-07 07:21:34
330.   OhioBlues12
I really think that the bullpen should be the very last thing we should address after Manny has signed and we have brought in a starter. We should wait for the market to dry up and see if there are any bargains. We have so many talented, live arms that it seems to be a waste to spend resources there. I would be happy with throwing Broxton, Kuo, Wade, Troncoso, Elbert, and MacDonald at the situation and see what sticks.
2009-01-07 07:46:49
331.   Xeifrank
If we have the budget for a RP, League average SP, and Manny, then I don't see any difference in the order you sign them. If you need a RP and you wait just for the sake of waiting, then there might not be much left. If you've already budgeted for it...
vr, Xei
2009-01-07 07:57:56
332.   Jon Weisman

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.