Who's next? Mark Gardner?

You knew it would happen someday. Russ Ortiz is probably next when he decides to make a comeback. Hopefully just an old favor but who among us would be surprised if they were to choose Estes over Stults?

"(Claudio) Shawn provides us with Major League experience and versatility," Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said in a statement. "He's won at the major league level and he can start or work out of the bullpen if necessary."

Isn't Al Leiter available?

Leiter's not a former Giant.

Repost from the previous thread.

A New Year greeting from Hong Kong.

Some of you say that this is the best site on earth. Not sure if that's true, but I certainly spend far more time on this than any other sites. I would therefore like to provide what (token) support I can to help Jon.

I will continue what I started last year. Email me at hsu dot hubert at bcg dot com, let me know your donation to the site, and I will match up to $300 in total.

Go Dodgers, and sign Manny already!

Kirk Rueter is still in his 30s isn't he?

I hate when I have to root against guys looking good in ST.

5 D4P
True...

2
Was the money mentioned? Unless he spends over 80% in Albuquerque, this was a pretty stupid signing.

Why is management so down on Stults? He isn't Johan Santana or anything, but he could be a solid 4-5 starter given the opportunity. That's just frustrating.

Awesome! Now Estes has played for every team in the NL West.

CajunDodger -- In my opinion Stults doesn't have the stuff for a #4 starter. I think a spot-starter type would be great for him though.

How about Jerome Williams? He is only 28 and played at LV last year.

Its a minor league deal, emphasis on the minor. Estes isn't guaranteed to make the team, and its not like Torre has any personal reason for Estes to make the team. Either he pitches well enough to make the team, or he doesn't. I see no problem here.

12 See 0 - the Scott Erickson scenario.

I can't be the only one here who, after seeing the title of this post, hoped this was about Jesse Katsopolis, right?

Right?

12 That's the worst case scenario. And one that is unlikely to happen. If Estes makes the team, he's the long reliever at best, replacing Chan Ho Park's role.

I was arguing with someone about Broxton – he claimed Broxton didn't throw strikes consistently – and decided to look at his numbers again.

For 2006-2008 Broxton:
IP 227.3
BB 85 (BB/9 3.37)
K 284 (K/9 11.24)
WHIP 1.183
H 184

That looks like one season of an ace starter to me (admittedly a different role). In fact, compare to Tim Lincecum's 2008 Cy Young year:
IP 227
BB 84
K 265
WHIP 1.172
H 182

Broxton is one day younger than Lincecum.

16
Wow, nice find. That's pretty amazing.

17 I thought you particularly might like it; that's why I posted it at TBLA first! I wasn't thinking Lincecum, but when I saw what the totals were, I was pretty surprised how close they were.

10 -- What sort of "stuff" do you think Stults has? His change-up is a plus pitch, his curve is decent, and his fastball averaged 89.1 MPH as a starter for the Dodgers.

From Fangraphs data, here is just a PARTIAL list of left-handed MLB starters in 2008 whose average fastballs were below 89.0 MPH:

Wandy Rodriguez -- 88.9
Randy Wolf -- 88.8
Shawn Estes -- 88.7
Tom Gorzelanny -- 88.7
Odalis Perez -- 88.6
Andy Pettitte -- 88.5
Ted Lilly -- 87.4
Jeff Francis -- 86.8
Mark Buehrle -- 86.5
Barry Zito -- 84.9
Jamie Moyer -- 81.2

Eric Stults should be in our rotation. I don't care if he is the #4 starter or the #5 starter. He should be in our rotation. He has enough "stuff."

19
I love all the detail on Fan Graphs. Kind of weird, I always thought of Ted Lilly as a much harder thrower than 87.4.

I also love that Jamie Moyer is at 81.2 MPH on his average fastball. That's awesome.

16 -- There are Dodger fans at Dodgers.com's board who would be happy to urinate on Broxton, except if he was on fire, then they would think that was too good for him.

11 Jerome Williams signed a minor league deal with the A's.

15
I do not know. Not like Ned is just going to hand Stults the job.

Anybody on the Tony Jackson death watch, you can call off the guard. He made 3 posts on his website today alone.

21 -- Of course I'm not talking about members of a sexual minority who like doing that sort of thing (insert standard Seinfeldian "Not that there's anything wrong with that"). The people I'm talking about would have malice in their hearts.

21 That is NOT where I was having the argument. When you write "Dodgers.com's board", is that Josh Rawitch's blog, or something else?

25
Well that goes without saying ; )

More Fan Graphs fun:

Among starting pitchers, Kershaw's average fastball (94.0 MPH) was 9th in MLB.

There's also a 20.6% difference between his curve and fastball. I'm not suggesting it's like a changeup for him, but that's a pretty big difference.

26 -- No, it is a different board. Put your cursor on the "Fans" heading at Dodgers.com and a drop-down thing will have "Message Board" on it. Click on that.

28 -- And note that the eight guys ahead of Kershaw are all righties. Kershaw was literally the hardest-throwing southpaw starter in MLB in 2008, just edging out Sabathia.

30
Canuck, do you think Kershaw needs to throw a changeup more (he threw one 5.3% in 2008), or will his success (2009, at least) be a result of getting a little more control of his fastball & curve?

29 Ah, I see, thanks. Given the all the grumbling about it and the awful format, why bother?

The Cavs' sideline seats (near the benches) are sunken down a bit below the floor. That seems like it could be dangerous if a plyer is out of control near the sideline (more dangerous than the normal careening-towards-the-stands danger, I mean).

Also, the Cavs are killing the Celtics (2-7 since starting 27-2). Cleveland will be a touch matchup in the Finals for...someone.

(that was for you fanerman).

The Dodgers.com message boards(and all of the mlb.com boards) are worse than 4chan. At least on 4chan, you expect it the language and attitude of the board to be abnormal.

31 -- Well, you don't want a guy throwing a third pitch much if his third pitch is bad enough that it is going to hurt him more than it helps him. I think Kershaw has to improve the change-up enough that he can throw it with more confidence. Either that or develop a cutter as a third pitch. Billingsley never mastered a change-up, but he has his cutter and his curve so he really doesn't need a change-up. When I advocate that McDonald and Stults be put in the rotation from the start of 2009 I do so quite mindful that in some ways they are each -- with their polished three-pitch repetoires -- more ready to be MLB starters than Kershaw is right now. Kershaw really has to depend on power to compensate for the fact that he is virtually a two-pitch hurler.

28 Isn't that the kind of curveball speed one would expect to be paired with an average fastball? I have a dim memory of an 88/75 ratio as ideal....

34 That's why this is "the greatest site on the planet".

35
Thanks for the insight.

Your point about Billingsley and his cutter is apt. His addition of that pitch over the last few years has really helped his maturation.

% of Pitches as Cutters
2006: 6.8%
2007: 14.2%
2008: 18.8%

1 - how about Omar Daal?

I thought the Dodgers as an organization refuse to teach cutters? Or am I thinking of another pitch?

40 -- For the longest time the Dodgers had a reputation for refusing to teach the slider because they believed it ruined young arms. I think those days are long gone.

canuck,

i'm not sure why you think stults is a good option as a starter. if you take out that amazing shutout he threw last year, he's a pretty poor pitcher at the major league level (granted, with a small sample size). i don't know much about his "stuff" (and i'm not one of those people that thinks a 90 mph fastball is necessary to be effective) but aside from one great game, i don't see how he's shown enough to warrant your confidence.

42
In 14 starts at the big league level (over the last 3 years), Stults has put up the following:

IP: 74 (5.3/start)
ERA: 4.08
ERA+: 109 (estimated)
H: 75
BB: 27 (3.28/9ip)
K: 57 (6.93/9ip)

He is projected to put up somewhere between a 4.48 (Marcel) and 4.58 (CHONE) ERA in 2009, with is slightly worse than league average (4.43 over the last 3 years at Dodger Stadium).

Stults will essentially make the league minimum and be roughly an average starter. Why wouldn't you give that a try?

6 That is a generous offer and a good reminder about supporting this site. There's enough traffic here that donations of any amount will add up. Click that PayPal button the right folks!

Canuck, I know you like to make your presence known, but comparing him to those pitchers is silly. Sure, he can be Odalis if that is what you want, but Odalis had a great sinker (or something to that effect) working for him when he was good. Those other guys have had success at times because they have a big other pitch, whether it be a specialty curve or the like. You can't honestly sit here and tell me you would be happy to have Stults as the Dodgers #4 starter this season.

I love the fantasy of a prospect as much as the next guy but we've all seen Stults in the majors and it's nothing that can't be had out of a plethora of candidates.

also, delayed Top Chef thoughts:

Eugene noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

Melissa needed to leave eps ago, and Carla is the new Nikki.

45
Stults is not a prospect. He turned 29 in December.

The point is that is it really worth $9 or $10 million to find out that Randy Wolf won't be any better than Stults at $400k?

47 Wolf has the potential of producing an above average E.R.A. Isn't that part of the reason why you would be willing to pay Wolf more money? Its the upside of Wolf that you're paying for, not just that Wolf's career is uninspiring.

43 hmm, i guess i was lumping in his reliever stats, which are far, far worse. put that way, i wouldn't be opposed to starting him, although it's kind of odd that there would be such a big discrepancy between his starter and reliever stats. but i'm also looking at his last five starts last year when he was decidely less than average:

23.2 ip
5.32 era
.913 ops against

so i guess i'm not opposed to giving him a shot as a starter, but i don't think the dodgers should forgo signing a starter (not wolf, i'm thinking sheets with incentives) to give him that shot. and if you want mcdonald in the starting rotation, that's what you would have, no?

Team USA could not find a better pitcher than Matt Lindstrom?

I was advocating Stephen Strasburg for the U.S. team if they couldn't find enough pitchers.

45 -- I understand the point, and I'm all for putting him into the glut of possible 5s. I just don't feel comfortable penciling him in at #4.

I certainly don't want him handed anything coming into Spring Training. We all have our doubts about players, right? He's one I have doubt in. I hope I'm wrong.

49
Yeah, I think the Dodgers need another starter too. I'd like to see McDonald and Stults in the rotation, but given that no rotation ever uses only 5 guys it would be unwise to not get at least one more starter.

I just hope it's not Wolf, especially if it's a 3-year deal or something like that.

53 agreed, when you break up, there's a reason for it. no need to get back together and rediscover that you hate the way he chews his food.

I really, really dislike these Fox Sports sideline interviews during Laker games. It's just an uncomfortable, awkward interview all the way around, and oh yeah there's a game going on!

eric and canuck, what do you think of oliver perez? i don't get the sense that there's much support for signing him here, but i actually would prefer him over everybody else out there (except sheets with incentives).

No mention of Shawn Estes must pass without noting this fun fact from over a decade ago:

However, they're beginning to wonder how bright [Estes] is after he allegedly stole a $600 21-speed bicycle outside a Los Gatos, Calif., restaurant. And especially since the bike had "POLICE" stenciled on its frame. Six days later, Estes turned himself in and is facing a $400 fine for joyriding with a stolen bike and up to a year in jail

http://tinyurl.com/7ttrxk

56
If Oliver Perez didn't cost a draft pick, I would be much higher on him. He's certainly a good pitcher, but I fear his contract will be too long for too high an annual salary.

I prefer Sheets as well, even though he would cost a draft pick, because his upside is higher and his contract will be shorter.

58 Oliver Perez has a career 94 ERA+. He's seems like a younger Wolf to me.

57
Good grief.

A very Big XII first half at Staples tonight:

Lakers 68
Pacers 66

Canuck, thanks belatedly for the "Intelligence" recommendation. That one has been on my radar. I'm not in charge of buying, just make recommendations, and the budget is a little tight right now but our buyer said that one would come as soon as we can, probably first over Durham. Thanks for both. Heard great things.

And:

What I like about Sheets is his upside and might even be a bargain, relatively. What I get nervous about is the injury history, given we already have Schmidt to deal with. And the Dodgers' brass likely feels the same way, fair or not. Perez is sort of appealing as a capable lefty, except, as said above, costs a draft pick. Wolf has the potential to be above average but the longer contract he's seeking could be a dealbreaker. In short all three guys have at least one major blockage that keeps me from getting too excited. But the Dodgers clearly need to sign one more pitcher to be safe, and might need to take a chance on one of them soon.

62
All of a sudden Garland starts to look good, or even Pettitte on a 1-year deal.

63
Not in my world.

64
What if we sign Pettitte or Garland, and I email you "the picture"? :)

Pettite is okay. Not Garland.

It would have to be the greatest picture in the history of picturedom for that.

66
Well, it's really not that impressive a pic anyway. So Garland is out then.

Last time I did not want to sign a player so badly, we signed Juan Pierre and Brett Tomko.

Maybe I should try a different strategy.

Stults, Kershaw, and Macdonald are not all going to give us 200 innings this year. Estes is a body that at best will soak up some innings as injuries inevitably happen. Some of you get your panties in a twist a little too easily. He's not here to start opening day. How many of you thought Chan Ho Park was going to do anything positive for us last year?

How did you know I wear panties?

The Celtics lost to the Cavs tonight. Yeesh.

71
Well, the Cavs are probably the best team in the league right now, plus they were at home (19-0 there this year).

72 Still, The Celtics are letting this season slip. Its funny, one of the main criticism of Doc Rivers was that he loves a 10 man rotation way too much, and now that circumstances has forced him to make a small rotation, he doesn't seem to know how to manage that either.

If anyone was wondering, I am stull high on Stilts.

I think Josh Powell will be taking Odom's minutes next season. Then LA will pay whatever they have to for Ariza.

Lakers hit the Lawler mark...with 9:31 left to play.

76
For a while I thought they might hit it in the 3rd quarter, but they ended it with "only" 96.

74 High on something! ;-)

So yes, Pettite would be acceptable to underdog. Garland, no.

Heck, we may get some Chan Ho like work out of Vargas for all we know.

Go Lakers!

57
No way! That's where I live. First time I've seen Los Gatos mentioned here. There's only 30,000 people in the town, so it doesn't exactly get involved in MLB news much. Jared Allen and Trent Edwards both went to Los Gatos High School though, if the NFL is your thing.

Both of these games vs. Indiana have been torture to watch.

Lawler's new law: first team to 120 wins.

Are there any NBA local announcers that aren't insufferable?

Why would Vlad run away from Dunleavy like that? Oh well, they pulled it out.

That was a horrible shot.

Tonight's game at Staples Center was the 9th highest scoring non-OT game in the league this year, at 240 total points.

There have been 508 non-OT games this season, including tonight.

82
It's maddening enough for us Laker fans to sit through Meyers and Stu Lantz, but it has to be torture for non-Laker fans. My apologies.

86 We had it so good for so long with Chick we're spoiled for life anyway.

82 Ralph Lawler.

I'm glad I couldn't watch the Lakers game tonight, the highlights cut out all of the misery. At least they won.

Even when the Celtics are on their current slump, the Staples crowd still has the Boston sucks chant.

90

My ears heard "Pacers Suck."

91 In the after show? Its always a Boston sucks chant, since the beginning of the season.

92

Oh, I was talking about during the game. I don't get the after show on League Pass.

86 It seems to be the case anytime I watch clips on youtube though. They seem to go out of their way to make sure the analysis:blatant unpoetic homerism is 1:4

94
I generally don't like to root for injuries* but I would be pleased as punch if Joel Meyers had larynx removal surgery.

*That is pretty much a lie.

72 - Agreed. As of today the Cavs are the best team in the NBA. Best defense and very efficient on offense. I still don't buy into the Celtics are letting this season slip away, I think they will be in the ECF against the Cavs but it is likely we see Lebron in the Finals in June.

75 - Josh Powell has always proven he can contribute when given the minutes, but he has an option to become an FA this summer. He will likely use it if his production continues. Powell and Ariza are must resign, I think Odom is vital too but his price will b too costly.

Yeah the Boston Sucks chant has become a tradition after the game outside and inside Staples.

entire post Laker game thread
If Phil can come back to LA as coach, why cant D.Lowe come back to LA? (author despises Lakers)

Is 3 yr $75 mil too much to ask for the best right handed hitter in the game?

Bring back Pedro to a 1 yr incentive laden contract- extinguish the stigma of Delino Deshields.

94
Ralph and Mike are at least fun to listen to if you have a sense of humor. Ralph may be a homer guy but he knows his basketball and has anyone ever had to watch more miserable basketball then he has? Anyone? Ever?

Sactown Dodger fan? I'm not even going to ask why, but if you want to explain feel free.

Lowe has pretty much unofficially said he doesnt want to comeback to LA, he likes the east. Should he not get any good deal there is an outside chance he comes crawling back to LA for an offer. Of course only then their camp will say Lowe had wanted to stay in LA all along or some BS like that.

Apparently it is too much to ask when you are the McCourts. There are too many baseball fields to build for the community.

100
My father grew up in Bakersfield, raised me a Dodger fan. Growing up in Roseville, Ca aka SF Giants country, it only furthered my bond with the Dodgers. As Bob Dylan would say, I'm "tangled up in blue."

The Dodgers considered trying to void Andruw Jones' contract before waiving any possible action as part of his contract restructuring, two high-ranking baseball sources told The Times.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers10-2009jan10,0,5306252.story

101 - Anybody who rebels against SF is a good man.

102
I wonder if the Dodgers considered voiding Colletti's contract as well.

Do we know if Troncoso will be a starter or reliever next year?

If the starters average 6 innings per game they would have to pitch 194.4 innings each during the regular season.

My guess:

Current pitchers that can do this:
Billingsley
Kuroda
Stultz

Current pitchers that can't:
Kershaw
Elbert
Kuo
Schmidt
McDonald

105
I'm pretty sure the Kuo-as-starter ship has sailed long ago.

106 - It wasn't exactly a three mast ship sailing around the harbor either.

106 - Oh Bob, say it ain't so!

Ken Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox have signed Takashi Saito

Sure seems like there's a lot more incentive-based contracts this offseason than normal.

110
Even the D-Backs, who have a policy of no performance incentives, are considering it.

http://tinyurl.com/9sybn8

109
The deal was completed after Saito passed his physical on Friday. It includes a guarantee between $1.5 million and $2.5 million, the sources said, and Saito will have the chance to earn more than $7 million if he reaches all of his incentives

http://tinyurl.com/7nhs32

That doesn't sound much different that the Dodgers' guaranteed money. I guess the incentives were different though.

109 & 112 - I know Colletti said he hadn't heard from Saito, but I really do think the Dodgers could have tried harder to retain him. In a best case scenario in Boston, Saito will earn "more than $7 million if he reaches all of his incentives." Although it isn't guaranteed that Saito will pitch well, I would have been happy to see the Dodgers take a risk on him as their bullpen still needs to be strengthened. Maybe they could have offered more incentives, but what's done is done. Looking forward, I'm excited to see what the younger players can do (Elbert, etc.).

I heard that the Red Sox are going to sign Darren Dreifort to an incentives-laden contract next.

Is it inscribed on Plymouth Rock "Sent me your arm weary..."?

New Tony Jackson article:

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_11421036

Sounds like Lowe, Sheets, and Pettitte are not being considered. Only Garland, Wolf, anf Looper are listed as targets. And Troncoso is not considered a possible starter, at least by Tony Jackson.

116
Always a spelling error...

So Tony Jackson also says (as Tim Brown had) that the Dodgers are believed to have refined its search for a starter to three pitchers: Randy Wolf, Jon Garland and Braden Looper. I know this was discussed earlier, but I'm okay with Wolf, nay on Garland, and high on Looper (or glue, one or the other).

Looper might have a better pay off than the other two at a lower cost.

Jinx!

And I really hope LA doesn't look at Cruz. He's not worth that #1 pick to a division rival.

I hate the Red Sox.

I particularly like this comment on MLBTR. Who is this, Bob in disguise?
"NoMore NoMar

Garland is putrid!

Wolf has some upside!

Looper is a Pooper!"

Nice try. I'd be ok with Wolf and Looper myself at the right price, not so much Garland though.

Let's see, Looper is 34, which is a bit older than I'd thought. Last year his WHIP was 1.312, pretty decent no? 108 K's to 45 BBs. 25 HRs in 200 ip isn't great.

He seems more like a safe bet as a long reliever, where I think he can excel, than as a full-time starter. though.

122
Yeah, but look at it from Ned's perspective, where those stats don't exist. He's won 24 games the last two years and is a Proven Closer™. Ned must be salivating thinking about him.

If Saito is physically fine I will be very dissapointed in the Dodgers effort to keep him( or lack thereof). At least we won't have to face him during the season,and I was really dreading him winding up in our division.

117 That's a typo--not as bad!

I am sure I am wrong, but it sure seems like Ned spends an awful lot of time not hearing from anyone.

123 I don't think Colletti sees Looper as a Proven Closer, though, and probably not even as a reliever. I think he sees him as a starter. He's a borderline 4 or 5 starter.

NPUT