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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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Oops, There Goes Another Rubber Tree Plant
2009-01-29 09:52
by Jon Weisman

Dave Cameron writes at Fangraphs about not giving up on propsects who hit a rough patch: "Don't judge a player with a long history of success on one bad season. Talent shines through, even if not immediately."

* * *

Keith Thursby of the Daily Mirror points out that the 1949 Los Angeles Angels might have been more of a major-league team than the 1949 Chicago Cubs.

Comments (187)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2009-01-29 10:13:11
1.   Xeifrank
56. (LAT'd from prev thread)
56. I think Cameron over-reacts (which is his style at USSM) on this one a bit. 3-year weighted win values of 3.02 for Randy Johnson and 3.00 for Jon Garland. Garland is much younger, less likely to get hurt, less likely to have a huge drop off in production, and more likely to pitch more innings. This signing gives the Diamondbacks four good to great innings eating pitchers, which will in turn give the Diamondbacks less starting pitcher innings from replacement level pitchers. Which in turn, keeps your high leverage bullpen arms from getting worn out. I think the Garland signing was good for them. A RJ signing would've been good too. I just don't see the logic in Cameron's argument that the "Diamondbacks screwed up their entire offseason" with this signing.
vr, Xei
2009-01-29 10:14:30
2.   Bob Timmermann
In 1949, Hank Sauer of the Cubs hit 27 home runs and had an OPS+ of 150 in just 96 games after coming over at the trade deadline from the Reds.
2009-01-29 10:17:02
3.   Jon Weisman
2 -
2009-01-29 10:33:03
4.   ToyCannon
Surprised that Andy LaRoche was not mentioned in the article by Cameron. Hu didn't have huge offensive expectations but LaRoche certainly did.
2009-01-29 10:34:46
5.   ToyCannon
So what happened to the left hander who dominated the Dodgers when he wasn't battling cancer?
2009-01-29 10:43:51
6.   Xeifrank
5. huh?
vr, Xei
2009-01-29 10:45:46
7.   Bob Timmermann
Doug Davis is the reference in 5 .
2009-01-29 10:45:52
8.   underdog
This is odd. From the AZ Republic, via MLBTR:

>>Piecoro adds that the Diamondbacks were serious players to re-sign Brandon Lyon, but wanted to use him as a starter.<<

2009-01-29 10:51:00
9.   Xeifrank
7. Yes, I know. I just don't understand the question of "what happened to him". Is he missing?
vr, Xei
2009-01-29 10:52:10
10.   El Lay Dave
9 "four good to great innings eating pitchers" are supposed to be Haren, Webb, Davis and Garland, correct? With Scherzer the fifth starter.
2009-01-29 10:52:33
11.   Bob Timmermann
The DBacks list Davis as their #3 starter behind Webb and Garland.
2009-01-29 10:53:01
12.   Bob Timmermann
Oh yeah, Haren. That guy.
2009-01-29 10:53:08
13.   ToyCannon
2007 19.2 1.83
but we did bomb him in 2008. My mistake, I thought he owned us both years.
2009-01-29 10:53:33
14.   Xeifrank
10. Yes, those four are in the top 20 of innings eaters (per AZSnakePit article).
vr, Xei
2009-01-29 10:53:59
15.   ToyCannon
No, just my eyesight. I actually didn't see him.
2009-01-29 11:01:50
16.   Tripon
Why is Dave Cameron ignoring the elephant in the room, at least for Dodgers fans?

However, it's not that rare to see a player come up from the minors, where he'd been destroying the ball, and fall on his face in the major leagues. Last year, for instance, we saw some disastrous performances from Chin-Lung Hu, J.R. Towles, Brandon Wood, Wladimir Balentien, and Jeff Clement. These guys have all experienced success as hitters in the minors, but all struggled mightily in short term looks at the big league level.

Where's Andy LaRoche?

2009-01-29 11:03:16
17.   Tripon
And I see that ToyCannon already asked the same question!
2009-01-29 11:03:36
18.   ToyCannon
16 = 4
2009-01-29 11:04:12
19.   Jon Weisman
4, 16 - I don't know that Cameron's list was intended to be comprehensive.
2009-01-29 11:05:22
20.   ToyCannon
Especially when considering that LaRoche dominated minor league pitching better then all the players he mentioned.

Maybe he doesn't feel that LaRoche struggled at the major league level?

2009-01-29 11:06:25
21.   cargill06
I'm surprised he didn't use examples of Perdoia and Tulo to further illustrate his point. Those names would have a bigger impact to me than Elijah Dukes. But maybe that's because I didn't realize Dukes hit that well last year.
2009-01-29 11:06:46
22.   bhsportsguy
19 There are certainly enough examples on both sides of that coin to say that yes, teams can be too quick to dismiss "prospects" but also some players can never quite equal the promise they showed in the lower minor leagues.
2009-01-29 11:06:50
23.   ToyCannon
Just seems strange to mention Hu and not LaRoche. If you are going to bring a Dodger into the discussion I think LaRoche has to be the guy. Hu was just a middle infielder who we hoped would hit 270 and give us great defense. Andy was going to be our big bopper.
2009-01-29 11:08:11
24.   Tripon
19 Except Andy LaRoche would be the prime example of a team giving up too quick, and Casey Blake was specially brought in to replace LaRoche, not Hu.
2009-01-29 11:08:20
25.   ToyCannon
Look back at the community projections for Andy that DT did last spring. Some expected big big things.
2009-01-29 11:13:00
26.   Eric Stephen
A sad memory, to be sure.
2009-01-29 11:13:48
27.   Jon Weisman
I guess I'm asking, do you really think it means anything that he mentioned Hu and not LaRoche? Or is it just a surprise and nothing more?
2009-01-29 11:13:49
28.   68elcamino427
What was the average era for the average #4 starter in the NL last year?
And the same for #5 starter?

This was discussed last year here.

Seems like the #4 starter era was about 4.5 - 5.00
and the #5 was 5.00+

but I'm just guessing.

2009-01-29 11:16:01
29.   Xeifrank
27. I agree, it doesn't mean much. Just a surpirse and nothing more. It seemed like an incoherent article, something the author didn't spend much time on. Dave's series on how to calculate WAR for pitchers and hitters were golden though. vr, Xei
2009-01-29 11:21:07
30.   bhsportsguy
Nothing demonstrates the word "prospect" to me than Andy Marte. Twice he was the Braves No. 1 prospect (2004, 2006) (he was second in 2005 to Jeff Francoeur). He was also the Red Sox No. 1 Prospect in 2006 (he was two franchises No. 1 prospect that year due to the publication dates of BA's lists).

The Braves gave him all of 57 at bats before spinning him off (for Renteria), the Red Sox didn't even keep him long enough for him to get a tour of Fenway.

Last year he was given a chance to play after Blake was traded and he was still underwhelming. He'll be 25 when the 2009 season starts but right now, he'll be battling to stay on the 25 man roster.

2009-01-29 11:21:34
31.   cargill06
28 I'm sure someone will find you the answer, but I can tell you the average NL starter had a 4.41 ERA last year. In theroy wouldn't that mean the average #3 starter has a 4.41 ERA?
2009-01-29 11:25:29
32.   ToyCannon
If you take a look at those I think I win by default. Doesn't quite negate my A Jones debacle but it helps.
2009-01-29 11:27:21
33.   Xeifrank
28. What methodology do you want to use for determining what a #4 and #5 starter? Are you talking about taking the starting pitcher that had the 4th and 5th most innings on each team and averaging them? Or are you looking at all the starters who started and then breaking them down by 5 groups based on a metric and then averaging the 4th and 5th groups? #4/#5/#X is kind of an arbitrary term. Pls define it.
vr, Xei
2009-01-29 11:32:42
34.   Tripon

Jay Jaffe has another Manny article up.

2009-01-29 11:33:01
35.   kinbote
M. Sweeney signs with the Mariners.
2009-01-29 11:33:07
36.   cargill06
2009-01-29 11:36:27
37.   Eric Stephen
28 ,36
I started the research for a similar study for 2008 a few months back, but it got pushed to the back burner. I'll try to get something up with 2008 data soon.
2009-01-29 11:45:03
38.   underdog
35 What will Dave Cameron have to write about that one, I wonder? ;-)
2009-01-29 11:49:42
39.   kinbote
38 It's the one who used to very good [Mike]. I always wanted us to trade for him. Glad I'm not the GM!
2009-01-29 11:51:01
40.   Xeifrank
35. Atleast it's Mike, not Mark Sweeney. There's a little bit of a difference, not much though.
vr, Xei
2009-01-29 11:57:46
41.   ToyCannon
Used to be a big difference. That guy could rip when he wasn't in the hot tub.
2009-01-29 12:02:31
42.   kinbote
Mike Sweeney's OPS+ from 1999 to 2005:


2009-01-29 12:08:03
43.   Eric Enders
"do you really think it means anything that he mentioned Hu and not LaRoche? Or is it just a surprise and nothing more?"

A surprise and nothing more
Tapping at my chamber door

2009-01-29 12:09:28
44.   underdog
39 etc: Yah, my mistake, thought you meant our former "slugger," not the other one. Never mind. (Not that Mike isn't also a shadow of his former self, but he used to be good.)
2009-01-29 12:11:49
45.   underdog
Russell Martin's doing yoga. Good idea, I say.

>>That's right, the native of Chelsea, Que., best known for his dogged blue-collar work ethic and play-through-all-pain intensity, has made yoga an integral part of his off-season workout regimen for the first time this winter.

"I've never felt better," he said.<<

2009-01-29 12:14:25
46.   kinbote
44 You fell for it. I was alluding to something from a while back--"Know your Sweeneys"?
2009-01-29 12:15:25
47.   underdog
46 - Heh. Is M Sweeney related to M Butterfly and M Ward?
2009-01-29 12:18:37
48.   Eric Enders
One of those three has a fantastic new record out.
2009-01-29 12:29:51
49.   Humma Kavula
48 And one of them has a fantastic record that's been out for a very, very, very long time.
2009-01-29 12:34:22
50.   Eric Enders
And the other one just wants to know how many outs there are.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2009-01-29 12:38:37
51.   Humma Kavula
Once upon a winter dreary, as I waited, weak and weary
For news about our Manny (yes, this hot stove league's a bore) --
As I waited, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping
As if someone gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door --
"Tis Dave Cameron," I muttered, "Rapping at my chamber door --
Only this, and nothing more."

Ah distinctly, I remember, it was 'fore our fine September:
Ned Colletti had his finest moment and his only poach.
Eagerly, he grabbed the Manny (he was certainly quite canny!)
And for the price of one young man -- a young man named LaRoche --
The rare and radient prospect who the angels named LaRoche! --
Now a Pirate forevermore.


2009-01-29 12:44:48
52.   Tripon
Jayson Stark has a munch of new info out, and among them Dodgers related:

• Hard as Joe Torre tries to spin his thoughts about Alex Rodriguez, we've heard from multiple sources that when A-Rod was a free agent last offseason, Torre advised the Dodgers not to touch him.

2009-01-29 12:45:31
53.   underdog
Apropos of nothing, but I just ran across the best plot synopsis in recent memory. And by best, I mean worst.

Scrap metal indeed.

2009-01-29 12:45:43
54.   Alex41592
Andrew Brown was released by the A's to make room for Russ Springer.
2009-01-29 12:46:52
55.   Alex41592
54 - The injured Andrew Brown.
2009-01-29 12:51:07
56.   cargill06
53 Dunn Deal Dept.: OK, here's another hang-up if Manny decides to stall until spring training. An official of one team that has had contact with Adam Dunn's agents says Dunn is "definitely" waiting to see what happens with Ramirez because the Dodgers are his preferred destination.
2009-01-29 12:51:10
57.   Humma Kavula
52 If true, I can say -- as a founding member of ARONS -- that I will cease cutting Joe Torre any slack at all.

The only way "Don't touch Alex Rodriguez" should come up in conversation is: "Don't touch Alex Rodriguez, because the sheer heat of his brilliance is likely to burn your hand."

2009-01-29 12:52:13
58.   Eric Enders
56 warms my little heart.
2009-01-29 12:53:46
59.   Tripon
Adam Dunn loves playing in Dodgers stadium?
2009-01-29 12:54:09
60.   fanerman
Joe Torre is such a mayonegg.
2009-01-29 12:55:10
61.   Jim Hitchcock
53 Yeah, after Tremors, I'm pretty much out of the market for Fred Ward In The Desert movies. And Lea Thompson? Oh, my.
2009-01-29 12:55:35
62.   Dodgers49
Ramirez remains top free-agent hit

>> A significant alteration of the rules governed by the latest Basic Agreement led to this sea change in the free-agent climate. Until last year, teams had until Jan. 7 to re-sign their own free agents, or they couldn't negotiate with them again until May 1. That resulted in a flurry of signings in December and just after the New Year.

Now, in the Basic Agreement that was collectively bargained prior to the 2007 season, there is no such deadline. Thus, teams can continue to talk to their own free agents. That change alone has led to some players making mistaken judgments. <<

2009-01-29 12:56:46
63.   Humma Kavula
61 Gus Grissom! Remo Williams!
2009-01-29 12:58:03
64.   Dodgers49
62 That headline should read:

Ramirez remains top free-agent hitter

2009-01-29 12:59:48
65.   Jim Hitchcock
62 Hey, Ward in space or on the beach is fine with me!
2009-01-29 13:02:08
66.   Jim Hitchcock
Meant 63 .
2009-01-29 13:03:06
67.   68elcamino427
Thanks cargill06

I printed this up the day it was posted, but it's in one of the piles of paper here in the basement.

Thanks to the great work of Eric Stephen:

#4 starter ERA 4.59 ERA+ 96

#5 starter ERA 5.07 ERA+ 87

#6 starter ERA 6.22 ERA+ 84

2009-01-29 13:04:35
68.   PalmdaleSteve1
When it comes to the Manny chase it's always wise to remember wise words:

"Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

2009-01-29 13:05:41
69.   Dodgers49
Per Diamond Leung:

Bowa: Dodgers in 'deep, deep, deep trouble' without Manny

>> "I'm going to tell you something. If Manny doesn't sign with us, we're in deep trouble. Deep, deep, deep trouble...We're going to be lost without a guy of that caliber a hitter in our lineup...There's two places I really don't want him. The other place is Anaheim because we'd have to read about it every day. If he goes to the Giants, the Giants have definitely improved their ballclub, and if they put a hitter like that in the lineup, they'll be the team to beat I think." <<

2009-01-29 13:10:20
70.   underdog
Bowa's being completely over the top as usual. And I'd love it if he could somehow remain our 3rd base coach while also having his mouth taped up 365 days a year. BUT I share the same worry -- especially about what would happen if he went to the Giants. That said, I still don't see that as very likely.
2009-01-29 13:10:52
71.   das411
57 , what if Torre was saying "Don't touch ARod, we have this Andy LaRoche kid"?
2009-01-29 13:12:01
72.   cargill06
69 Smart Larry. Nothing shows how much confidence you have in your players quite like saying if we lose this one player we're screwed because the other guys stink.
2009-01-29 13:12:32
73.   fiddlestick
I can't wait to read the next Dodger coach's book: "Eroding Your Leverage" by Larry Bowa.
2009-01-29 13:13:42
74.   underdog
Who is Debbie Goffa and why is she writing about the Dodgers?

>>Otherwise you have a starting rotation of Chad Billingsley, Roger Kuroda and ... uh-oh. OK, they're going after L.A. native and ex-Dodger Randy Wolf (4.30 ERA for Houston last season) but didn't they try that in 2007? And if you aren't worried, remember they still have Jason Schmidt. If you're still not worried, then you probably aren't a Dodgers fan.<<

Roger Kuroda? Bet she couldn't pick out Kershaw on sight.

2009-01-29 13:13:48
75.   blue22
Yeah probably not wise that he goes public with that kind of sentiment. But it does display a pretty resounding vote of no confidence in Juan Pierre as a starting left fielder. Maybe there is hope for an Abreu/Dunn backup plan, despite Ned's recent comments about it being Manny or bust.
2009-01-29 13:16:05
76.   Eric Enders
You have to admit, Roger Kuroda is a pretty awesome name. I say we go with it.
2009-01-29 13:16:51
77.   Eric Stephen
Or more likely Larry Bowa is an old kook that has no influence on personnel decisions, other than annoying and berating players once they're here.
2009-01-29 13:17:07
78.   Eric Stephen
Roger that.
2009-01-29 13:17:11
79.   JimBilly4
56 Let me state once again, this sort of thing makes me think we should sign both Dunn and Ramirez. The market is at a low point for power hitting outfielders. Sounds like a good time to me to tie up some serious talent for several years for cheap. If Dunn really wants to be a Dodger and the demand for him is low, sign him to a 4-5 year deal and then STILL go after Manny. Your leverage against Manny will be gigantic at that point. Either he signs for something reasonable or he can take a crap offer from all those teams that are only sorta interested in him. Worst case scenario, Loney becomes trade bait and we have two 900 OPS guys on our squad.

Of course McCourt may be trying to run 2009 on the cheap. I would say who can blame him, except of course me, who has season tickets. I blame him.

2009-01-29 13:18:54
80.   underdog
76/78 - It does sound like something out of Airplane! doesn't it?

Paging Captain Oveur.

2009-01-29 13:21:37
81.   Eric Stephen
And who was the first officer?

That's right, Mr. Dunn.

2009-01-29 13:22:30
82.   underdog
Never mind Manny! The Giants just signed Juan Uribe. Stand down, I repeat, stand down.

( a minor league deal, could be worth up to 1 million.)

2009-01-29 13:23:45
83.   cargill06
79 Worst case scenario, Loney becomes trade bait

Go ask the folks on Bronx Banter what they'd think of a Loney for Joba trade.

2009-01-29 13:26:32
84.   El Lay Dave
75 Except Dodgers49 pointed to this quote yesterday:

"Without Manny in the lineup, I won't say we can't score runs but we'll be like we were at the beginning of last year," Bowa said, referring to a period when the Dodgers struggled offensively. "Manny is sort of that constant in that lineup. With the kids, you don't know what you're going to get."

So it's "the kids" Bowa refrains from having confidence in, not the vet Pierre presumably.

It's best not to pay too much attention to crazy ol' Uncle Larry.

2009-01-29 13:26:49
85.   trainwreck

Lisa Leslie reportedly scored 101 points in the first half of a high-school basketball game. How is that even possible?

2009-01-29 13:28:14
86.   El Lay Dave
Roger Kuroda sounds like the name of the best buddy character for "The New I Dream of Jeannie".
2009-01-29 13:29:01
87.   El Lay Dave
84 is from here:,0,363476.story
2009-01-29 13:29:35
88.   Tripon
83 Can you link to a thread that has a Loney for Joba trade?
2009-01-29 13:32:29
89.   Eric Stephen
When you are a girl over 6 feet in high school amongst relative midgets, it's a little easier.
2009-01-29 13:34:27
90.   cargill06
88 Was saying it tounge in cheek. Yesterday it was pointed out that they were having a heated discussion if the Dodgers would do Kemp for Kennedy. Just throwing another outragous trade out there.
2009-01-29 13:34:38
91.   Eric Stephen
85 ,89
Wikipedia tells of a much more unsavory tale:

It was a tradition of Morningside High's basketball coach Frank Scott to arrange to have a star player attempt to break the single game scoring record each year. In 1990, Leslie was his star and he purposely4 chose a game with the struggling South Torrance Spartans for her attempt to beat Cheryl Miller's record of 1053 . After a humiliating half for the Spartans, the score was 102-245 , with Leslie scoring all but one of the Morningside points; her team giving her all the shooting opportunities. Two foul outs and an injury had reduced the Spartans from seven players to four and they chose to forfeit the game rather than return for the second half. Hoping to break the record, Leslie asked the Spartan coach to continue long enough for her to break the record but he declined4 . The referees allowed her to shoot four "technical" fouls claiming "delay of game" due to the forfeit. She made the shots, which would have tied the record had they not been subsequently nullified

2009-01-29 13:35:23
92.   Ken Noe
Perhaps the writer was thinking about Roger Dorn, who was certainly no pitcher.
2009-01-29 13:36:10
93.   bhsportsguy
84 I thinks its fair that you could not predict with any confidence what the "Dodger" kids would do last year?

I always wonder why there is so much commotion raised when something like this gets said. I would hope that any player has more than enough confidence in himself that those types of general comments roll off their back.

As Jon wrote a few days ago, the Dodgers have cast their lot with their core of young talent so regardless of what Larry Bowa says, the club's fortunes will ride with them.

But I certainlly have more faith of predicting what Manny will do in 2009 vs. any player entering his second or third year in MLB.

2009-01-29 13:37:30
94.   cargill06
91 Boy that story just makes you feel proud to be a human being.
2009-01-29 13:39:49
95.   adrian beltre
93 - yes, but why would a coach go out of his way to disparage young, but extrremely promising and already somewhat accomplished players on his own team. and this can't help the team's leverage when negotiating with Manny.
2009-01-29 13:39:51
96.   Eric Stephen
Yeah, I wonder if Frank Scott was asked to apologize to South Torrance. :)
2009-01-29 13:40:59
97.   Eric Enders
BH is right and so is Bowa, to an extent. I mean, is there anyone out there who thinks they can tell me exactly what Matt Kemp is going to do next year? He'll probably be reasonably good, we know that, but he could hit .330/.400/.580 with 8 steals, or he could hit .265/.310/.420 with 40 steals. We don't really know.

Same thing with Loney. DeWitt too. We actually don't know what we're going to get from the kids. Saying that doesn't necessarily imply a lack of confidence in them.

2009-01-29 13:41:00
98.   Humma Kavula
71 Then the response is, "Sure, I like the LaRoche kid, but c'mon, Joe, this is Alex Rodriguez we're talking about."

Furcal SS
Martin C
Ramirez LF
Dunn 1B
Ethier RF
Kemp CF
Blake 3B
DeWitt 2B

[insert Homer drooling sound here]

2009-01-29 13:42:27
99.   Tripon
South Torrance deserves anything it got.

(I am a graduate of North Torrance High, so I am biased.)

2009-01-29 13:42:37
100.   Ricardo
84. Is Bowa a Dodgers or a Boras employee? Jesus, he should stay quiet.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2009-01-29 13:43:35
101.   natepurcell
So that BA Dodgers top 10 list has a lot of potential. I'm surprised that DeJesus is all the way down to 6...but I guess Lindblom made quite an impression in his pro debut.
2009-01-29 13:43:51
102.   Eric Stephen
Blake 3B
DeWitt 2B

I always like seeing this in the lineup for some reason. It amuses me.

2009-01-29 13:43:55
103.   ToyCannon
That is pathetic. Once played in a Culver City basketball league and only four of our guys showed up. We were all over 30 and played a squad of athletic kids who looked like they had just stepped off the Venice courts. They put full court pressure on us so they could score as many points as they could. Not one of my happier athletic memories.
On the other side we once played a team who only had four guys and their point guard became Nash dribbling around, between, and thru us. They thrashed us.
2009-01-29 13:44:54
104.   Tripon
90 Ah, can you link to that thread?
2009-01-29 13:47:11
105.   regfairfield
It's funny because it happened to South.
2009-01-29 13:47:15
106.   Eric Stephen
I once got crossed over in an intramural game by a guy with one hand.
2009-01-29 13:48:37
107.   fanerman
106 Okay I LOL'd.
2009-01-29 13:49:21
108.   trainwreck
Josh Shipp apparently is not much into football, because he had no idea who was in the Super Bowl.
2009-01-29 13:50:40
109.   fanerman
108 Good for him! (hides)
2009-01-29 13:52:13
110.   cargill06
2009-01-29 13:53:16
111.   kinbote
101 Nate--Do you have any thoughts on Travis Schlichting? Any chance he makes it into our pen the next year or two?
2009-01-29 13:59:52
112.   natepurcell

Similar to Corey Wade. He has the ability to pitch on a major league bullpen.

2009-01-29 14:03:38
113.   ToyCannon
Probably the best athlete in my middle school was kid who lost his left arm in a washing machine accident. It was amazing what he could do. No Pete Gray but the kid could play.
2009-01-29 14:11:33
114.   adrian beltre
110- that thread is awesome. its a shame those reasonable yankee fans had to deal with such a malcontent. living in new york and hearign way too many of those bogus trade ideas, its nice to know there are ones who think rationally. i cant wait for the bison in 2009
2009-01-29 14:19:28
115.   Pecos Bill
{99} Making up for South High's cross country team scoring 15 points (Low score wins - 15 being the best score possible)in the 1965? Southern California CIF cross country finals. That is the same as scoring 200 pints in a basketball game and will never happen again unless some high school enrolls 5 junior national runners from Kenya
2009-01-29 14:20:47
116.   JimBilly4
98 That potential line-up is my point: it would very good. I love Loney, but I would trade him for that line-up. Dunn is good (at hitting), and Dunn is relatively young. If it turned out that due to the economic forces of this off-season that he was also cheap then I would sign him. Econ 101: Buy Low.

It has the added benefit that it could actually make signing Ramirez for reasonable years easier, if played properly. I really think the Dodgers are the only team really trying for Manny. The only thing preventing a deal is that Boras thinks (rightly) that the Dodgers are desperate for a power bat and will eventually up the bid just for the security of having one. You get Dunn, you don't -need- Manny. You want him. You will pay more than most teams seem to be wiling at this point. But you don't need him.

The main downside to buying both is money. It obviously costs more per year to have Dunn. Some of that might be saved off the Ramirez contract thanks to the pressure, but you are probably talking at least an extra 10 million. Then of course, one could screw up the negotiations with Boras, insulting Manny, etc. And we would probably lose Loney through a trade. I suspect a minor trade, not a blockbuster. So there are risks and downsides, sure.

But that line-up would bang some ball.

2009-01-29 14:26:58
117.   JimBilly4
By the way, I don't think Ned likes Dunn at all so this is almost certainly an academic exercise. He strikes out too much and his batting average is low. Pointing out his string OPS is not likely to get Ned much slack in the papers.

He should also go after Ben Sheets, but won't just because every injury will look like another Schmidt all over again. But if you get Sheets cheap enough you can afford to lose a lot of innings if the ones that are pitched are ace (or near ace depending on your definition) level.

2009-01-29 14:30:38
118.   kinbote
Is Dunn worse defensively at 1B or LF? I've seen him at 1B and I can't believe he could be any worse in LF. Or is this a case of Ockham's razor?
2009-01-29 14:39:25
119.   Bob Timmermann
The LA Times has been running a "photo gallery of L.A. area Super Bowl sites."

That must be extensive.

2009-01-29 14:40:54
120.   JimBilly4
Occam (or Ockham)'s razor is choosing the alternative with the fewest assumptions. I.e., that with the simplest explanation.

You are looking for more of a damned if you do, damned if you don't sort of expression... Sort of a Tiger and the Lady, except all the doors have Tigers.

Of course what will apply will be Murphy's Law: Wherever you stick him he will play worse.

2009-01-29 14:46:14
121.   kinbote
120 Philosophy aside, I just think replacing Loney's defense with Dunn would be worse than replacing Manny's defense with Dunn. But I've never seen Dunn in left field. From what I've seen of him at 1B, I just don't see how he could even man an outfield position. How about this for a way of putting it?: Some say the world will end in fire; some say in ice.
2009-01-29 14:48:26
122.   Humma Kavula
120 Murphy's Law

And then the Dodgers will trade him and he will become the MVP for his new team.

2009-01-29 14:51:50
123.   Bob Timmermann
Down goes Blagojevich!

Please resume your non Rule 5 breaking discussion.

2009-01-29 14:55:26
124.   Eric Stephen
Almost everything is better if said in a Howard Cosell voice.
2009-01-29 14:58:07
125.   kinbote
You mean "Scumdog Million-hairs"? (That one kills me . . .)
2009-01-29 15:09:00
126.   Bob Timmermann
From the vitally important pre-halftime press conference in Tampa:

"And linebacker Bruce Davis of the Steelers said of Springsteen's music: "That's not really my genre. But you've got to love a man named Bruce, right?""

2009-01-29 15:23:32
127.   ToyCannon
Burrell, Dunn, Manny, or Abreu.

Makes me long for the days when a LF could actually do other things besides hit. How many current left fielders could hit/field/throw/run like Johnny B? No wonder those 77/78 teams were good, they were so bloody loaded they could carry a sad sack SS like Russel and a defensive wizard like Yeagermeister.

2009-01-29 15:24:15
128.   bhsportsguy
126 Gotta love that Bruin.
2009-01-29 15:28:06
129.   fanerman
127 Pre-roidal Barry B could do all those things except maybe throw.
2009-01-29 15:30:38
130.   Bob Timmermann
That's probably the only way Bruce Davis was going to get interviewed before the Super Bowl.
2009-01-29 15:33:11
131.   ToyCannon
Pre-roidal Barry was the best left fielder to grace our game.
Pre 2000
when you take into account all aspects of playing the game.
2009-01-29 15:35:50
132.   Eric Stephen
No wonder those 77/78 teams were good, they were so bloody loaded they could carry a sad sack SS like Russell

I'm beginning to think you don't have the highest opinion of Bill Russell. :)

I actually want to see some of these bad fielding LF types go full Luzinski, especially if they get paired with a great CF. Just have Dunn or Manny line up about 20 feet from the left field foul line with his back to CF. He is responsible for everything "in front" of him, and the CF takes everything else. :)

2009-01-29 15:40:42
133.   cargill06
131 Was he that much better of a defender and baserunner that Ted Williams?
2009-01-29 15:48:38
134.   Eric Stephen
131 ,133
In the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, which coincidentally also has data through 2000, here are the top 3 LF:

1) Ted Williams
555 career Win Shares
Top 3 WS: 49,46,44
Top 5 total: 220
WS per 162: 39.22

2) Stan Musial
604 career Win Shares
Top 3 WS: 47,44,40
Top 5 total: 193
WS per 162: 32.33

3) Barry Bonds
467 career Win Shares
Top 3 WS: 47,41,39
Top 5 total: 187
WS per 162: 35.30

It should be noted that according to Musial was spread out over the OF and 1B, so perhaps calling him a LF is a bit of a stretch (but maybe not):

LF 948 games
CF 325
RF 749
1B 1016

These include games at multiple positions, as I can't find his starts at each position.

2009-01-29 15:48:49
135.   D4P
(Andruw) Jones is apparently still searching for a major league deal and the Braves don't feel comfortable handing him one. According to Bowman's report, Jones "became defensive when a former Braves teammate simply suggested that this was an option that would allow him the opportunity to resuscitate his career in the familiar surroundings of Atlanta."


2009-01-29 15:50:18
136.   Eric Stephen
Well, Andruw was always an excellent defensive player.
2009-01-29 15:54:15
137.   Dodgers49
133 Whenever I look at Ted Williams final numbers I'm just amazed that he could put up those number while having his career interrupted not just once but twice by military service. One can only imagine what his numbers would look like without those interruptions.
2009-01-29 15:58:10
138.   fanerman
135 What is the "this" that the former Braves teammate suggested?
2009-01-29 15:58:43
139.   Dodgers49
137 Should always re-read what I write. :-) Maybe Williams' and "those numbers."
2009-01-29 16:02:38
140.   Eric Stephen
this = minor league deal
2009-01-29 16:10:29
141.   Dodgers49
Per Diamond Leung:

Manny Ramirez gets second contract offer

>> Manny Ramirez has been offered a two-year, $24,000 contract by the Worcester Tornadoes of the Canadian-American Association of Professional Baseball. <<

2009-01-29 16:13:28
142.   Eric Stephen
Ha! Gotta love a Rich Gedman sighting too. I can't wait to find out what Marty Barrett and Spike Owen are up to these days. :)
2009-01-29 16:20:07
143.   Dodgers49
Manny Ramirez: 'No one wants to sign me'

>> Pujols passed along Ramirez's telephone number to St. Louis manager Tony La Russa. <<

2009-01-29 16:24:12
144.   Bob Timmermann
(Tony LaRussa looks at piece of paper... "Hey, Albert, this is one of those fake 555 numbers! What are you trying to pull on me? I'll show you who's boss!")
2009-01-29 16:28:26
145.   trainwreck
Tony La Russa is on the cover our our local phone book holding a ballerina's legs.
2009-01-29 16:28:39
146.   trainwreck
*of our
2009-01-29 16:29:36
147.   Bob Timmermann
Is the rest of the ballerina still attached to the legs?
2009-01-29 16:31:44
148.   Eric Enders
Maybe it's a lamp.
2009-01-29 16:32:09
149.   D4P
"Rollo said to tell you he wants his legs back"
2009-01-29 16:32:43
150.   Dodgers49
David Wells blasts Joe Torre, says he'd 'knock him out' over new book

>> Wells admitted to clashing with the manager, saying that Torre would often turn off his music in the clubhouse without ever asking him to turn it down. How'd Wells respond? He'd blast the music again and tell Torre, "If you got a problem, go in your office and shut the door." <<

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2009-01-29 16:35:58
151.   trainwreck
Actually, he is holding her by the hands and she is not a ballerina, but a dancer wearing skimpy clothing.

Tony has a big smile on his face.

2009-01-29 16:37:13
152.   Eric Stephen
Once again, David Wells exudes class.
2009-01-29 16:38:59
153.   ToyCannon
Evidently Joe didn't control the clubhouse as well as we were led to believe.
2009-01-29 16:39:39
154.   Eric Stephen
Steve Garvey easily won the poll for #5 hitter on the all-time LA Dodger lineup. We have combined the 6/7/8 spots into one post, to round out the lineup.

2009-01-29 16:40:33
155.   ToyCannon
Thing is, once this book comes out, all the players will have something to say. This was a bad idea for Joe. Can't wait for Sheffield to add his 2 1/2 cents. And Lofton. And other players who don't need to worry about baseball anymore to make a living.
2009-01-29 16:41:31
156.   Bob Timmermann
I fear to think of where all the trash cans were placed in the Yankee Stadium clubhouse from 1996 through 2007.
2009-01-29 16:42:53
157.   trainwreck
Hopefully, one day our young guys will be big enough stars that people will want to hear about their dealings.

Probably be a book about Martin partying, Loney being a little weird, and how Kemp can't do anything right because he is too talented and not basebally enough.

2009-01-29 16:44:03
158.   ToyCannon
2009-01-29 16:46:17
159.   underdog
151 He has a strange way of doing fundraising for animal abuse issues.
2009-01-29 16:47:35
160.   Eric Stephen
Larry Bowa, however, is the baseballest baseballer ever.
2009-01-29 16:50:13
161.   underdog
Is that David Wells' way of making Joe Torre look bad?

Seems to have worked as well as it did for Elmer Fudd when shooting Bugs Bunny after Elmer's gun barrel had been bent around the wrong way.

Or some other less goofy analogy.

2009-01-29 16:51:21
162.   Ricardo
Victor Gárate is pitching! Vamos Leones!

2009-01-29 16:51:43
163.   Eric Stephen
I think David Wells is Gerald Wallace's lung, and Joe Torre is Andrew Bynum's right arm.
2009-01-29 16:56:32
164.   trainwreck
I think David Wells is destined for Celebrity Rehab.
2009-01-29 16:57:15
165.   D4P
I think David Wells is destined for Celebrity Rehab

He's already the biggest loser.

2009-01-29 17:12:18
166.   underdog
162 Nice! Thanks for the link.

Hah hah. I turned it on just in time to see Luis Maza bat.

2009-01-29 17:14:29
167.   underdog
And Garate strike Maza out, to Maza's chagrin.

Another unleavened at bat for Maza.

2009-01-29 17:14:52
168.   Ricardo
166. Struck him out! Was that a curve? Great pitch!
2009-01-29 17:16:38
169.   underdog
They really like to roll their "R"s in Venezuelan Spanish. Or is that just these announcers?
2009-01-29 17:18:29
170.   D4P
I guess Jon Miller speaks Venezuelan Spanish...
2009-01-29 17:21:06
171.   trainwreck
You wanted, you got it, America!!!

Paul Blart: Mall Cop #2

2009-01-29 17:21:17
172.   Ricardo
169. No, sports announcers usually do that, not just from Venezuela.
2009-01-29 17:23:24
173.   Bob Timmermann
I would agree. It's more of an affectation that Spanish speaking announcers use wherever they are in the world.
2009-01-29 17:24:23
174.   underdog
171 {cry}

Marco Scutaro sighting in Venezuela!

2009-01-29 17:27:35
175.   underdog
For anyone bummed or worried about their job, or looking for work, just know it could be worse. In fact, I have to wonder if this is a joke. If not, it's the worst job ad I've ever seen. Includes unpaid training!

2009-01-29 17:29:36
176.   Eric Stephen
I call dibs on Underdog's couch!
2009-01-29 17:30:41
177.   underdog
176 - Only if you pick nits off me n' the cats, as part of your training.

Ugh, I just lost my appetite.

2009-01-29 17:32:52
178.   trainwreck
Last week, someone put up an ad on sfcraigslist trying to hire a girlfriend.
2009-01-29 17:38:03
179.   Jon Weisman
178 - There's a term for that, I believe.
2009-01-29 17:40:01
180.   trainwreck
Yeah, he should not have posted it in the job section.
2009-01-29 17:47:56
181.   underdog
Detailed look at recent Dodger FA (minor league) signee Charlie Haeger:

I still feel like he's nothing "speical" but worth a flier anyway, never know.

2009-01-29 18:02:45
182.   trainwreck
I can't believe I am rooting for Arizona basketball at the moment.
2009-01-29 19:45:47
183.   Eric Stephen
I swear, former reliever Jeff Nelson (crazy breaking slider guy) looks just like Jeff Kent.
2009-01-29 19:55:49
184.   trainwreck
Yes, he does.
2009-01-29 19:59:13
185.   Jon Weisman
From Bill Shaikin:

Frank McCourt has taken his share of knocks, but dedication and commitment to civic involvement has been a hallmark of his ownership. The Dodgers brought two dozen top prospects to Los Angeles this month, not only for workouts, but to instill the concept that their players are expected to contribute on the field and in the community.

Martin will join the caravan next week, and so will Kemp and Loney.

Torre won't be there.

He'll be appearing on David Letterman's show, pitching a book about the Yankees.,0,7925398.story

2009-01-29 20:06:58
186.   Jon Weisman
2009-01-30 13:53:08
187.   gruffydd
re:"Don't judge a player with a long history of success on one bad season. Talent shines through, even if not immediately."

What about Andruw Jones? Has he signed with anyone since stealing $36 million?

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