From Baseball Prospectus 2004, which arrived from Amazon on Thursday.

1) If James Loney's "wrist problem proves to be an anomaly and not an omen, he's as good a bet to make a quantum leap this season as anyone" on their list of Top 50 Prospects. Loney was ranked 25th.

2) Franklin Gutierrez "is one of the best hitting prospects in the game despite only intermittent command of the strike zone ... The comparisons to Juan Gonzalez are a little overblown, but only a little. Gutierrez has a better chance at a 500-homer career than any player" on the Top 50 list.

3) Chin-Feng Chen: "Normally, .281/.360/.530 looks pretty good. In Las Vegas in the Pacific Coast League, it's pretty mediocre, especially when comnig from a 25-year-old who plays below-average defense. Chen isn't much of a prospect anymore, but could probably help the Dodgers as a bat off the bench."

4) Koyie Hill's plate discipline "deteriorated into nothing in 2003 (we suspect you're detecting a theme) and his status as a prospect is likely to follow if he doesn't get himself back on track."

5) Jason Romano is "described by one scout as 'Joe Thurston, but without the talent.' "

6) Wilson Alvarez "was arguably the best pitcher in the National League in the second half, posting an ERA of just 1.77 in more than 70 innings of work. All the caveats about overweight pitchers who have trouble staying healthy should apply to Alvarez, but at the right price and in the right home park he could be a decent back-of-the-rotation starter."

7) Andy Ashby: "Some people actually have to buy a ticket to win the lottery; others win by coming to the Dodgers in their early 30s, masquerading as a good investment."

8) Steve Colyer "is a sinker/slider guy with some moderate control problems and decent K rates throughout the minors. He doesn't exactly have an out pitch, so it's unlikely that he'll pull Brendan Donnelly and start dominating major league hitters."

I had rated Colyer highly Monday, but with this second look, I am having a few second thoughts. Still, he could be a semi-effective lefty.

9) Jason Frasor "is a poor man's Billy Wagner - a pitcher who can bring the heat, but gets ignored because he's 5' 10" at most. ... There's little reason to think he can't contribute at the major league leavel, though he'll be lucky to have half of Wagner's career."

10) Joel Hanrahan "succeds with exceptional command of four solid pitches. ... He's not as good (or) as dominating as Edwin Jackson, or as young as Greg Miller, but he's in the same ballpark in terms of promise."

Bonus) Hideo Nomo's Equivalent Strikeout Rate "has dropped by more than 25% over the last two seasons, variables that PECOTA thinks will contribute to a sizable bump in his ERA, as well as a decrease in his innings."

The book is about 600 pages - what I've given you there is about a page or two at most. It's worth a purchase.

* * *

Around the net today, The Bench Coach offers good entries on James Loney and Tim Wallach, while 6-4-2 discusses the departure of Dodger executives Bob Graziano and Kris Rone. Rob McMillin has the same thought I had: "Man, would I love to hear what Rone's 'philosophical differences' were."

And if you want to see someone picking the Dodgers to win the NL West, for whatever reason, go to DodgerKid.