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Slap and Gap Hitters Won't Cut It
2004-03-17 12:05
by Jon Weisman

Within even a pitcher's park, there are places where hitters can thrive.

Dayn Perry of Baseball Prospectus notes that while Dodger Stadium clamps down on offense, it does so in very specific ways.

Perry borrows statistics from the 2004 Scouting Notebook by STATS Inc. that illustrate the effect Dodger Stadium has in various offensive categories. (The following numbers are based on the past three years, with the numbers indicating what percentage of the league average occurs in games at Chavez Ravine.)

92 - Batting average
82 - Doubles
52 - Triples
99 - Home runs
103 - Walks
106 - Strikeouts
93 - Batting average, left-handed hitters
95 - Home runs, left-handed hitters
92 - Batting average, right-handed hitters
101 - Home runs, right-handed hitters

As you can see, Dodger Stadium reduces batting average by a little and doubles and triples by a lot, but hardly impacts home runs at all.

Therefore, Perry concludes, the team should not pursue hitters whose strengths are limited to singles, doubles and triples. The park suppresses those numbers too dramatically.

Rather, the Dodgers should prioritize hitters who can draw a walk and hit home runs. (If they can knock out some two-baggers to boot, that's gravy.)

As an example, Perry suggests rumored Dodger target Adam Dunn, the Cincinnati outfielder. His slugging percentage from home runs alone is .283, which is near Sammy Sosa (.309) territory. And, nearly 61 percent of Dunn's slugging percentage comes from home runs, meaning that his slugging percentage is less likely to fall if he comes to Los Angeles.

"That's quite a bit of power devoted to only homers," Perry writes, "and it's why, despite hitting from the left side, the Dunn of '03 might be a nice fit in L.A. Granted, his component power numbers from 2003 are out of step with his previous two seasons in the majors, but his recent self illustrates the profile quite nicely."

Dunn, only 24, also walked 128 times in 2002 and 74 times in 2003. Dunn's health might be a concern, but at the right price, he could be a good pickup.

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