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Thinking Through the Nightmare Scenario
2004-10-01 10:34
by Jon Weisman

If the Dodgers lose Friday and Saturday, they will have to beat the Giants on Sunday in Los Angeles or Monday in San Francisco to win the National League West title.

For that Sunday game, the Dodgers would have the choice of starting Odalis Perez on three days rest or Kazuhisa Ishii on four days rest.

If the Dodgers start Perez on Sunday and lose, they could start Jose Lima on three days rest in the tiebreaker, or Ishii on five days rest.

If the Dodgers start Ishii on Sunday and lose, they would start Perez in the tiebreaker on four days rest.

Plus, if Ishii wins on Sunday, Perez can start in Game 1 or Game 2 of the first playoff series.

Because Ishii is capable of pitching great, and because Perez is a safer choice on four days rest than the other Monday options, the Dodgers should lock Ishii in for Sunday's game right now.

Of course, legitimate questions remain concerning Saturday's starter. I suppose you could start Ishii-Perez-Lima on Saturday-Sunday-Monday if necessary, all on three days rest, but again, the risk doesn't seem worth it. I'd give Edwin Jackson or Elmer Dessens first crack - or even start Wilson Alvarez and take him out after he's faced Barry Bonds the second time, then go to a committee of relievers after that.

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