Strikeouts per nine innings in 2004 (major leagues only) by 2005 Dodger pitching candidates:

12.46 Eric Gagne
9.35 Frank Brooks
8.05 Giovanni Carrara
7.61 Wilson Alvarez
7.44 Yhency Brazoban
6.99 Brad Penny
6.26 Elmer Dessens
6.26 Jeff Weaver
6.00 Mike Venafro
5.87 Odalis Perez
5.84 Edwin Jackson
5.57 Aquilino Lopez
5.17 Derek Lowe
4.95 Duaner Sanchez
4.50 Kelly Wunsch
3.00 Scott Erickson

Some of these pitchers, of course, didn't pitch enough innings to make these statistics relevant. But Duaner Sanchez, among others, seems like a candidate for trouble. He had a big strikeout year in 2002 (wearing five uniforms - El Paso, Tucson, Nashville, Pittsburgh and Arizona), but since then he has a less impressive 81 strikeouts in 147 professional innings. Of his balls he allowed into in the field of play in 2004, 26.9 percent went for base hits - below the league average. Since this is largely a luck-dependent stat, that's another negative portent for 2005.

Righthander Buddy Carlyle, who in his entire minor league career has struck out 7.27 batters per nine innings, might not make the Dodger roster for Opening Day, but we could easily see him later this season, and it could be as a replacement for Sanchez - if not as a replacement in the starting rotation for Scott Erickson. The 27-year-old Carlyle made 23 starts in the New York Yankee system last season, 27 appearances overall, and had an ERA of 3.18, striking out 140 batters in 144 innings and walking 25.

In Sanchez's favor: He's still only 25 and can continue to improve. Without jumping to the conclusion that Sanchez will have a bad 2005, a little bit of Dodger fate could depend on how quickly the team reacts to a poor season by him.