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The Dodgers improved by eight victories from 2003 to 2004, 85 to 93.
They did so in fairly bizarre fashion, with added performance at 11 of the 14 position slots on the 25-man roster and a decline at 10 of 11 pitching slots.
I've illustrated this using Win Shares, a Bill James-created formula that allows you to compare all players by combining that statistics into a single number. Now, not everyone likes Win Shares, but there are few better ways of comparing how each member of a roster has contributed to the team's success.
The following chart allocates, as I did last year, Win Shares by roster slot on the 25-man roster. This explains why you see, for example, Juan Encanacion on the same line as Hee Seop Choi, a player he was traded for, rather than Jayson Werth, a reserve who took over Encarnacion's outfield spot.
This isn't an entirely clean process – because at certain times the Dodgers carried 12 pitchers, you'll see some overlap in the 11th pitching slot on this chart. But it basically tells you where the Dodgers were getting their production.
Dodger Win Shares by 25-Man Roster Slot: 2004 vs. 2003
| Slot | 2004 WS | 2004 Players | 2003 WS | 2003 Players | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C 1 | 15 | Paul Lo Duca 15, Brent Mayne 0 | 9 | Paul Lo Duca | +6 | |
| C 2 | 1 | Dave Ross | 6 | Ross 4, Hundley 2, Hill 0 | -5 | |
| 1B/OF | 17 | Shawn Green | 9 | McGriff 8, Ventura 1 | +8 | |
| 2B 1 | 17 | Alex Cora | 13 | Alex Cora | +4 | |
| SS 1 | 25 | Cesar Izturis | 11 | Cesar Izturis | +14 | |
| 3B 1 | 37 | Adrian Beltre | 15 | Adrian Beltre | +22 | |
| IF-OF 1 | 10 | Jose Hernandez | 9 | Jolbert Cabrera | +1 | |
| IF-OF 2 | 4 | Jason Grabowski | 1 | Larry Barnes 1, Daryle Ward 0 | +3 | |
| 1B-3B 1 | 6 | Robin Ventura | 2 | Mike Kinkade | +4 | |
| 1B-3B 2 | 4 | Olmedo Saenz | 0 | Ron Coomer | +4 | |
| OF 1 | 19 | Dave Roberts 10, Steve Finley 9 | 20 | Shawn Green | -1 | |
| OF 2 | 17 | Milton Bradley | 10 | Brian Jordan 7, Jeromy Burnitz 3 | +7 | |
| OF 3 | 8 | Juan Encanacion 8, Hee Seop Choi 0 | 9 | Dave Roberts 8, Wilkin Ruan 1 | -1 | |
| OF 4 | 12 | Werth 12, Chen 0, Thurston 0 | 1 | Henderson 1, Romano et al 0 | +11 | |
| SP 1 | 12 | Odalis Perez | 20 | Kevin Brown | -8 | |
| SP 2 | 12 | Jeff Weaver | 17 | Hideo Nomo | -5 | |
| SP 3 | 9 | Jose Lima | 13 | Alvarez 10, Dreifort 3 | -4 | |
| SP 4 | 6 | Kazuhisa Ishii | 8 | Odalis Perez 6, Edwin Jackson 2 | -2 | |
| SP 5 | (-4) | Penny 1, Kida 1, Jackson 0, Nomo (-6) | 7 | Kazuhisa Ishii 6, Masao Kida 1 | -11 | |
| RP 1 | 16 | Eric Gagne | 25 | Eric Gagne | -9 | |
| RP 2 | 12 | Guillermo Mota 8, Yhency Brazoban 4 | 14 | Guillermo Mota | -2 | |
| RP 3 | 4 | Darren Dreifort 2, Elmer Dessens 2 | 11 | Paul Quantrill | -7 | |
| RP 4 | 6 | Duaner Sanchez | 7 | Paul Shuey | -1 | |
| RP 5 | 1 | Tom Martin 1, Mike Venafro 0 | 5 | Tom Martin | -4 | |
| RP 6 | 13 | Alvarez 6, Carrara 7, Falkenborg et al 0 | 3 | Colyer 2, Brohawn 1, Ashby 0 | +10 |
Source: The Hardball Times
Even before the sharp decline of the starting pitching in September, position players carried the Dodgers in 2004. Adrian Beltre was nearly 50 percent more valuable than any other Dodger over the past two seasons, and Cesar Izturis was as valuable this year as Eric Gagne was during his Cy Young-winning 2003. Beltre, for that matter, provided more value than the Dodgers' entire starting rotation (save Wilson Alvarez). Los Angeles also got much better production from its bench in 2004.
I started to analyze what this means for 2005, but I cut that effort short. The same conclusions keep returning - Beltre is huge, catcher is vacant, pitching is needed, retaining Finley and replacing Cora could be overrated. Izturis' value might be the biggest revelation here.
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