Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
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Milton Bradley vs. Carlos Beltran, 2004
Bradley Beltran Age 26 27 Salary $1.73M $9M OPS .786 .915 EQA .274 .306 VORP 25.2 74.5
Milton Bradley vs. Carlos Beltran, 2005
Bradley Beltran Age 27 28 Salary $2.5M $11.5M OPS 1.020 .796 EQA .335 .271 VORP 11.7 4.1
Sources: ESPN.com, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference.com
According to Baseball Prospectus ...
EQA is "a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense."
VORP is "the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense."
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Farewell, Paul Shuey.
It was me screaming for a Bradley extension. And I need $12 from you too. :)
Bradley probably gets $6M in arb next year figuring Beltre got $5M after his abysmal 2003 season. How about 4yr/28M?
http://tinyurl.com/9jol7
Opponents are batting .294 against Thompson. If that, and/or his ERA, start to go down, I'd feel better about him.
But his Ks are surely great so far.
But yes, I suspect he's had some bad luck, too.
.463 D Thompson
.340 E Hull
.309 E Stults
.286 J Broxton
.255 C Billingsley
The other 4 starters avg. .299 and the 6 relievers avg. .300. So my FIP numbers in #12 hold up. He's a 1.25 ERA guy with terrible luck so far.
Incidentally I saw Javier Vazquez had a .450 BABIP after 3 starts (12ip, 23h) and traded for him in roto. Next 2 starts, 15ip, 13h, 2er.
"I'm a ground ball pitcher, and several of those hits could have gone either way because they were just out of our reach," the 24-year-old said. "When the ground balls are finding holes like that, I have to take it on my own shoulders and get punchouts. That's what I tried to do the last couple of innings." 4-25-05
Wow. I need to use this. I picked up Jake Westbrook for today....
Where is the best place for the eyes to find these stats? Baseball Ref?
http://tinyurl.com/bc9yf
Don't kill me but Westbrook's .198 BABIP would have been a red flag.
Is anyone addressing the huge break in the comments section? I think I caused it with that mongo url.
When you are relying on guys who are 32, 40, and 38, these things tend to happen. (Okay, a bit of a stretch on Benitez, but it always surprises me when Giants fans are surprised that Bonds and Alou would be hurt. Banged up players in their late 30s? Imagine that.)
Anyone know if Jon "2-0" Weisman is at the game?
Good job Saenz.
They've played one weird week of baseball.
You have blacked me out for six wonderful consecutive days, and yet you were cruel enough to allow ESPN to show this Dodger game. Have you no mercy?
Sincerely,
Steve
Drew (who was on second), rounded third aggressively on the play, and slipped trying to get back to the bag
chad tracy double/tripled pumped (bc glaud wasnt covering the bag) but still was bale to get drew (barely)
imo not hoffman's (3b coach) fault
He does have a very nice looking swing. I think of all the left handed batters his is ni the top five for sweetest.
Seems like this is something for Colborn needs to work with the pitchers on.
Wunsch or Alvarez in the 7th
Sanchez or Schmoll in the 8th
Ghame Over.
Is Perez available as a hitter yet? Not sure what his DL status is. Just saw we have no RH PHs on the bench. Pinch hit Choi?
Think he based the call the same way Vinny did.
Isn't it always preferable to have the lead, regardless of outs and baserunners? Or no? Is a tie game with two outs and no one on better than a one run lead with one out and two on?
Obviously, both of those are better than a tie game with one out, bases loaded, and the Mighty Quinton batting.
Exactly, some of you guys act like a pitcher not making pitches is a managers fault. Weaver is facing Tony Clark and can't throw him a strike. Bottom line if we lose this game it's on Weaver, not Tracy.
If Weaver had gotten out of it would that make you an idiot?
Oh, I see. Well it looks like you've got it all figured out.
The point is, he didn't. This isn't the first time Weaver has been cruising along, tires, loses contol and then gets knocked around. It's pretty much his MO.
Well, with 20/20 hindsight, the 2 outs would have been more valuable than the run, since the D-backs went on to score 3 more runs. Nonetheless, Joe Morgan is clueless.
Just to make sure, I checked the run expectations from a paper I'm reading.
http://bayes.bgsu.edu/papers/rating_paper2.pdf
The statistics are from the NL in 1987, but I assume they're pretty close.
The run expectation for 1 out men on 1st and 2nd is .87 runs.
The run expectation for 2 out, no men on is .1, adding to the 1 run that would have scored, thats 1.1 runs.
So, on average, it is better to make the play at the plate, assuming it's guaranteed. But, Joe Morgan doesn't believe in statistics anyhow.
Looking wayyyy ahead, due to a scheduling conflict, during the last home stand we play Pittsburgh? 3x at home and finish with 3 with Arizona.
After that May's schedule doesn't get any easier, with Atlanta & Florida coming to C.R.
Given that Olmedo is a right handed firstbaseman and he caught the ball a step off first, might it have been a better play to throw home for the second half of the (possible) DP? It's a tag either way and you're not throwing over a runner.
Good question, but I've seen that a few times, it depends on the break from third that the runner has with less than two outs, and if Olmedo is thinking home anyway, it's got to be bang-bang.
It appeared that he was fortunate to make the play on the ball in the first place. Choi should have pitch hit and he would have been at first but ....
Sigh. 7 runs on 24 hits and 6 walks.
30 baserunners, 7 runs.
Why haven't Tracy-backers answered the question: Who was Kelly Wunsch "more likely" to succeed against -- Craig Counsell or Luis Gonzalez? That is because the question answers itself, and it's hard to play the "Tracy puts his players in position to succeed" card when he so obviously didn't tonight.
Or it could be that it was so obvious that he should have removed Weaver after walking Clark (I, for one, was throwing things long before Counsell ever came to the plate), that the question is irrelevant.
SP#1: Vazquez vs. Penny (slight edge D-backs)
SP#2: Webb vs. Lowe (slight edge Dodgers)
SP#3: Ortiz vs. Perez (slight edge Dodgers)
SP#4: Halsey vs. Weaver (slight edge Dodgers)
SP#5: Estes vs. Erickson (even, though Dessens or Alvarez are probably better than either)
SETUP: Koplove vs. Brazoban (slight edge Dodgers)
CLOSER: Lyon vs. Gagne (huge edge Dodgers)
1B: Tracy vs. Choi / Saenz (slight edge D-backs)
2B: Counsell vs. Kent (edge Dodgers)
SS: Clayton vs. Izturis (edge Dodgers)
3B: Glaus vs. Valentin / Nakamura (edge D-backs)
RF: Green vs. Drew (edge Dodgers)
CF: Cruz / McCracken / Terrero vs. Bradley (edge Dodgers)
LF: Gonzalez vs. Repko / Ledee / Werth (edge D-backs)
C: Snyder / Hill vs. Phillips / Bako (even)
Overall, I have the D-backs with a slight edge at SP#1 and 1B and a clear edge at 3B and LF.
Overall, I have the Dodgers with a slight edge at SP#2, SP#3, SP#4, and SETUP and a clear edge at 2B, SS, RF, CF, and CLOSER.
This is all just subjective, but it did make me think two things. One is that the D-backs are a pretty good team. The second is that the Dodgers should clearly be a better team, especially once Alvarez / Werth / Gagne are healthy.
Then again, Choi is hot, Valentin isn't, so it's a toss up.
Not that that run mattered all that much in the end, except to Gio's ERA.
There were 2 mistakes on the Fleece Blanket. It has the 6 Dodger World Series Winners listed as 1955, 1959, 1962, 1966, 1981 and 1988. They handed out vouchers that you could send in with your ticket stub to get a replacement blanket.
And I'm done with Repko in the 2-hole. Let's see Bradley bat 2nd vs. lefties even after Werth gets back.
I'm giving away my blanket "honoring" the 1962 and 1966 World Champs to a friend. I will send in a voucher for the correct one.
I had the misfortune of sitting in front of one of those guys who likes to tell everybody how bad the Dodgers are playing. It looked to me that they ripped a lot of line drives at people and hit a couple of drives that Terrero made good plays on.
Tuesday Arizona was 3 for 24
Monday 11 for 29
So, the total would have been 22 for 76 or .289
Good stuff as always.
vr
Xeifrank
What do you think? Is it time to sh*t can Scott Erickson and promote Houlton to a starter?
vr
Xei
Thoughts?
vr
Xei
My impression of the Dodger offense is the same as Bob T's. They were smacking the ball all over the place, but the balls just weren't dropping. Same as yesterday. I'm not worried. Drew had a HR taken away by a good defensive play. Only Nakamura and Saenz (against righties) looked completely lost.
He does seem to manage "by the book" at times. Schmoll looked pretty dominant against McCracken. Was it really necessary to do the LOOGY thing when Gonzalez came to bat? Perhaps Tracy has some minor league splits that say Schmoll does poorly against lefties. Whatever, just seemed like a "by the book" move to me.
He might have left Weaver in too long, but when your offense only scores 3 runs, you aren't going to win many ball games.
And I agree with GoBears. The three pitchers thing was too much (you said it better than I did).
They did seem to knock the stuffing out of the ball tonight only to have it land in someone's glove.
Funny, I had a similar experience in the pavilion tonight. I love the fact that the seats are pretty good for $6. However, the knuckle draggers that sit out there think that it is witty to say F-you (insert outfielders name) as a put down. It's even cuter when they start to question the left fielder's (Gonzo in this case) sexuality.
I have no problem with people giving players a hard time (probably cause my bro loves doing that junk), but at least come up with something better than something that starts with F-you.
We also went to Opening Day and sat in the RF Pavilion, and had the same experience as Eric L. That day they were questioning Tucker's preferences. At least my kids (teenagers) were old enough to take it in stride; but we'll never sit in the Pavilion again.
The expected powerhouses are anything but as the Padres can't seem to score and the Giants are losing players left and right. Will the return of Barry Bonds allow the Giants to score enough runs to make up for the fact that their pitchers won't be able to get anyone out.
The Rockies have to play a doubleheader today at Coors before coming out here.
April leads are meaningless; the Dodgers had the identical record, 13-8 after 21 games last year;
For now, the Giants are screwed; no Bonds and a worse bullpen than last year;
Glaus hasn't played a full season in two years, and if he can't this season, we know that Green can't carry a team anymore;
The Dodger experiment of playing WITHOUT a productive left fielder will be over soon, with Werth returning soon to help share the load with Kent, Drew, and Bradley; The Dodger experiment of playing WITHOUT a productive thirdbaseman will continue however;
By June, Werth, Gagne, Penny and Alvarez will be productive; Repko will be back in the minors and Erickson will hopefully be unemployed on a beach sunning himself with his wife;
Relax Dodger fans, but to avoid possible brain damage avoid listening to know nothing sports radio hacks like Vic "The Brick", or reading the "unbiased" analysis of the Times.
The DBacks travel down to PETCO this weekend and they will be facing Jake Peavy Friday night. If the Padres have any sort of offense, they should win.
The highest OBP of any Padre is Mark Sweeney at .400
The Padres are not getting much offense out of anyone whose first name doesn't start with an X.
.266/.384/.446
Despite the Dodgers' recent woes, BPro still gives them the best chance of any team in MLB to reach the playoffs - 57.3 percent.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
Sample size and all, but still...
Somehow I found myself bored enough at work to read the transcript of Milton's chat on Dodgers.com:
fisch69: Hi Milton. It seems like you are getting along with Hee-Seop Choi. What's he like?
Bradley: Everybody's good people. Chop is one of the guys that's been looked upon to produce and he's had his struggles like myself, but I just try to keep him confident and let him know he's got a friend.
-- Let's go Chop.
MLB Homers per game down 16% from last year.
MLB Average Slugging % down 4% from .428 to .411
Dodger statistics:
Batting:
Strikout percentages:
Jason Repko 26% (11K in 42ABs)
Jose Valentin 31% (17 in 54)
Hee-Seop Choi 28% (14 in 50)
Current form:
Izturis - 16 hits in 46 at bats in last ten games (.348)
Valentin - 2 for 29 in last eleven games
Nakamura - 1 for 20 in last 8
Repko - 2 for 16 in last 7
Choi - 8 for 20 in last 6
Saenz - 3 for 11 in last 5 with 0 BBs and 1 HR
Pitching:
Dodgers 16th of 16 in NL in Ks per 9 innings behind the Giants and the Rockies with 5.12 (ESPN.com)
Anyone bored? We're listening to Billingsley pitch on the webcast.
The Rockies have had a few games cancelled.
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