Actually the Dodgers are 1 1/2 games out of first.

I never told the People Who Don't Appreciate the Finer Things About Paul DePodesta to eat crow when the Dodgers were 12-2.

No, that was the Score Bard:

https://humbug.baseballtoaster.com/archives/166732.html

That's one you could e-mail me, Bob. :)

I always liked Heckyl and Jeckyl (is that how they spelled it?).

In April, I couldn't believe my eyes. In May, same thing--I can't believe what I'm seeing.

Friends of mine who think I know a lot about this game ask me which team is the real Dodgers, April's or May's?

I tell them I don't know what to believe.

Not that anyone should be eating crow yet, but it never hurts to think of recipies:

http://tinyurl.com/bt9ad

It seems that the team has been hitting well, they've just been out of synch. Maybe we should send them a metronome.

Sorry, Jon.

I was distracted by counting plot holes in tonight's "24".

There were more of them than Marlin extra base hits!

I really wasn't giving up on the Dodgers as much as my DV-R is getting ready to die and it doesn't hold on to any programming for more than an hour after it's recorded.

I've learned that it's pointless to believe in anything, SB.

I believe that in 2009, Jason Grabowski will still be on the Dodger roster.

My DVR died Saturday, age 9 1/2 months. DirecTV offered me a deal - $79 to replace it, or $49 with a one-year added program committment. The DVR has a warranty of 90 days. I don't think that's right.

So not only do you have to watch Dodger games, but you have to watch them with commercials. A cruel fate.

Two things:

1. DePodesta will keep Grabowski on the roster because to let him go would be to admit failure to the media.

2. DePodesta is more adept at midseason trades than Kevin Towers, so this increases our chances if we can just stay within a few games of the lead or retake it.

Jon, that DVR sounds like it had a case of SIDS to me.

My DVR is the property of Time-Warner. But I want a new one around the time of season finales!

I really think that Tuesday's game will not be as bad as we think.
The 2003 Dodgers, a truly atrocious team on offense, faced an 11-2, 2.56 ERA Dontrelle Willis in Florida and scored 7 runs in 2 innings.

That 2003 team had way more heart, Bob.

Agreed, the six or seven ads that run are horrid, and always in the same groupings. Since I'm watching on MLB.TV, I've bound one of my function keys to a script that silences and minimizes RealPlayer for two minutes. If not for that, I don't know what I'd do. Watch In-n-Out spots I guess.

I dunno, we all knew the Dodgers were due to slump, so I do not know why we have to dwell on something we knew was coming.

I mean, Penny, Lowe, Perez, and Weaver have looked shaky at best of late. But is it too much to think that its just a pitching slump as opposed to a regression towards the norm? I am not addressing anyone in DT so much as the Times and ESPN and other Dodger chat rooms.

It would have been great to have many of you at the Bayside tonight in SF, where after a painful trip to the dentist, I had the excrusiating experience of watching the Padres come back against the Braves, the Yankees come back and when Ileft were leading the Mariners 6-3, saw the A's and Red Sox go back and forth and as much as he tried Dotel couldn't give it up in the Ninth, the A's finally hit...And then there was the Dodger game. The Dodgers finished with either 10 or 11 hits, I am sure a few walks and can only score 2 runs! But even with more runs the pitching has not been sharp and the in playing the Cards, Braves and now the Marlins, the Dodgers right now are 2-6, and even winning the next two they would only finish with a record of 4-6.

Since the Angels are coming up and then the Giants, Padres and D Backs, the Dodgers have a lot to do. As bad as Valentin was hitting it least when he hit he drove somebody in, right now they get hits but can't knock them in or get a hit when it counts, with the exception of Cesar and Bradley and of course Choi. Until the 3rd base situation is solved, although Mike Edwards continues to hit-no power, but he hits, the Dodgers will suffer. I think Drew should be moved to 5th Bradley to 3rd. I can't see the Dodgers hitting their stride until they decide on a 3rd baseman and a new 5th starter. I do see them turining it around, but Drew has to hit-Kent will come out of his slump.

See we sort of expect the Dodgers to be more like this:
http://tinyurl.com/bxzfs
Constant upward trends

We fear that they will be like this:
http://tinyurl.com/7ued8

But baseball has a knack for being like this:
http://tinyurl.com/7zj7l

I like Drew second because he still has OBP ability even in a slump, then Bradley, Kent, and Choi. Or Choi, Bradley, and Kent. Or Kent, Bradley and Choi. Whatever. But this is academic, because it's going to take a lot more than 100 groundballs to first base to move J.D. Drew from the third spot. It's going to take 200.

There's probably more surprise about the Dodgers' strong start rather than about their current play. Currently the one surprising plus is Phillips, and the disappointment is Drew (or is he injured again and just not telling anybody). The rest of the team is playing about as expected for a bunch of re-tread starting pitchers and garage sale players. In business, it's said the art of good management is coaxing superior results from average performers. It looked like that was the case for Jim Tracy early on in 2005, but certainly not lately.

What's the story with Krispy Kreme? I thought they'd become the World's Greatest Donuts.

DK -- But is the jury out on DePo's midseason trade, though? We watched the fruits of last year's big trade blow the game for us, while Paul LoDuca went 2-4. Sure, he'll collapse in the second half like he did last year, but the Dodgers have gotten mediocrity (2-2, 4.45 ERA) from Mr. Penny since his return. I concede Choi has been rather nice of late, though.

Remember how everybody thought Krispy Kreme doughnuts were great?

They grossly overestimated how many people would think that. They also have bookkeeping issues.

But if you get there at just the right time they give you Free Hot Donuts!

Should we start the debate on "Donuts" vs. "Doughnuts" now?

If at the start of the season I promised you the Dodgers would be 21-17, after 38 games would most of us have taken it? I think so or something close to it. Its really the 12-2 start that has blown our expectations out of whack. If we were 21-17 by winning every other night with two in a row once in a while we would not be as concerned. Jon, as usual, is right let's wait to see who's serving crowe to whom until after the all-star break.

I would be more concerned if we were not hitting. It is indeed frustrating to put up 9 and 10 hits for 2 runs but its better than 2003 when we had no hits. The runs will come. Drew and Kent will get hot but will Choi, Izzy and Sanez still be hitting. By then maybe Grabs will get theball out of the infield.

as for whether Drew is hurt and not telling anyone--that would really be too much like Greenie.

Krispy Kreme uses "doughnuts" which is why I used that spelling.

More ominous Shawn Green comparisons.

Krispy Kreme sucks. Stan's is still the best.

I say spell it "donuts" but Tim Brown gets upset and says that's not the way Krispy Kreme does it.

Krispy Kremes were good doughnuts.

The holding company overestimated the demand and grew too quickly without maintaining the same quality product. Once that happened it was no surprise that they lost control of their brand, and started losing money. The same thing happened with Boston Market.

Accounting misdeeds don't help either, I suppose. They seem to indicate that they knew there was no way to keep up the same quality while undergoing such a growth spurt.

Actually Steve, although I raised it, this Drew-Green comparison fails given Drew's history of self-imposiiton on the DL at the first sign of a hang nail. Was it LaRussa that questioned Drew's heart?. As a recognized Green fan, I have to get my points in where I can and one thing about Green is he was committed and always wanted to play.

I say spell it "donuts" but Tim Brown gets upset and says that's not the way Krispy Kreme does it.

LOL.

#31: Interesting, capdodger. Can you explain specifically the ways KK and Boston Market's quality went bad?

Oh, by the way, Hi Tim!

LAT: Good point in 26. Most of us knew at 12-2, we were in Fantasyland. But to turn it a bit, after 12-2, if I told you a couple dozen or so contests later, the record would be 21-17, and the view from 3rd place in the mildly forsaken NL West, whatcha feelin' then?
I don't read Tracy teams well; the dramatic ups and downs surprise me. But somethin' I might have been willin' to bet hard cash on to begin the season was Paulie's mis-tactics, in spite of general approval of publicly-stated strategies; I thought the likeliest outcome of any this season, given my take on pitching, in particular (I hunched both Gagne and Perez had excellent chances to meet on DL, and wrote so in December), was mediocrity, even as defined in the recent West. If not mediocrity, better chances for even less than that than more. Saw a lot of the anticipated "brokenness" in series with Cards and Braves. May be chimera, may be portent. Betcha sawbuck latter.

The Dodgers aren't a great team but neither are they a crappy team. You can't blame DePo for not simply turning last year's team into a great team; perhaps it just wasn't possible. Let's look at the major acquisitions he made in the offseason. (Sorry this is kind of long)

1. Get a big bat.
Sign J.D. Drew to big bucks + Valentin for small bucks (but more than petty change)
OR
Sign Adrian Beltre to big bucks + some barely above replacement OF
OR
Sign Troy Glaus to big bucks + some barely above replacement OF

Hindsight is 20/20, but Glaus is raking while Drew is not. Looking at their track records, it would seem Drew would have a slightly better season given the same amount of at-bats as Glaus. But both had pretty serious injury concenrns, and Glaus' were probably a little more serious, so while choosing to sign Drew instead of Glaus has not worked out so far, I think it was still a sound decision.

2. Get a big arm.
Sign Derek Lowe for big bucks
vs
Sign Matt Clement for big bucks
vs
trade the farm for Tim Hudson

I'm not sure if Clement would have come to L.A. even if we threw more money at him than Boston did. But of these three hurlers, Lowe looks at this point to be the least desirable, and I don't think anybody would have disagreed with that statement this winter. I mean, before we signed Lowe, was ANYBODY raving about him and how well he would do well at Dodger Stadium? Absolutely not. I see people who did so after the fact as blind DePo supporters. Also, I don't know what we would have had to give up in exchange for Hudson, but clearly we have enough minor league talent to pique Billy Beane's interest - it's just a matter of how much you're giving up is too much. So basically, I don't know how possible it was to acquire Clement or Hudson, but if it was possible, they would have been better options than Lowe.

3. sign Jeff Kent

In the style of his Milton Bradley acquisition and The Trade last July, DePo had a press conference announced before anybody from ESPN.com could break the news that a major transaction was imminent. I think this is easily the best move DePo's made since he arrived. I disagree with Jon's statment that most GM's would have signed Kent while non-tendering Cora. I think many would have not seen 2B as a need area and instead put money into other areas, such as into re-signing Beltre.

We currently have four above average pitchers plus Scott Erickson. I don't think our biggest need right now is in the batting order. Instead, we need an ace. Penny may or may not become that guy, but he's by no means that stud arm that you feel comfortable pitting against a Jake Peavy or Jason Schmidt (or maybe even Javier Vazquez, non-2nd half of 2004 version) with the division at stake. And he's not somebobdy you want matching up with the aces of the best teams in baseball that you would expect to face in the postseason. Of course, aces don't grow on trees, so it's not like you can roast DePodesta for not having acquired one. But then again, maybe he could have if he had done things differently. Hudson is that type of guy. All in all, it's only been one year since he took the reins. We can evaluate his offseason moves, but we really can't evaluate DePodesta as a GM yet.

OT 33:
Not personally, Icaros. I'm more of a Dunkies and cook for myself type, and I was rather young and living in the sticks when Boston Chicken flew the coop.

I only know what I've read in the currrent trade papers and the archives. From a ten minute Google News search on the subject, it seems that both companies used similar franchise financing schemes to hide operating losses at the store level.

Usually, it takes time to build a franchise network. In the case of both BC and KK, the franchisor attempted to grow the network by attracting and recruiting area franchisees with easily obtained loans and franchise-value guarentees (like the Orioles down the road). It was then in the best intrest of these area franchisees to throw up as many stores as possible. This causes distribution problems, or forces different stores to use different supplies. This can lead to variations in availabilty and quality of product.

Even if there were no variations, the area distributors for KK and BC oversaturated their respective markets. There was, in fact, a limit to the amount of greasy doughnuts or salty rotissire-chickens a commnity could eat. In most cases, a network would end up pruning the deadweight, as McDonalds did with some of their sagging foreign franchises a year or two back. That wasn't an option for KK and BC because they had guarenteed the area developers and franchsees either a sale price, or protection from debt and operating loss.

Basiclly, like this year's version of the Yankees, they believed their own hype. There's a few good stories on motleyfool (DOT) com about the similarites of the crashes.

And uhh.... Signing Jeff Kent was a good thing. Even if Alex Cora would have traveled back in time and donated his big payday to keep Krispy Kreme in the black.

LA will contend this year. They will contend next year. They will contend in 2008. They will dominate in 2009, and will continue to dominate for perhaps half a decade after that. By that time, the only guys from today's team still on the team will be Cesar Izturis, Hee Seop Choi and Yhency Brazoban. Whoever invented Ghame Over will be a millionaire. If McCourt makes a lot of money building Dodgers' Grove, we might have Milton Bradley still.

In the meantime, boys, all we ask is a little entertainment. If you're going to lose, just try not to make it so boring. With the exception of 20 minutes on Friday night, this has been an excruciatingly boring two weeks. Thinking about exciting Dodger moments is one of the ways I conquer insomnia. Well, it's 2 am and I'm still up because I haven't come up with a good one that's less than 3 weeks old.

This is why Tracy should bunch all his hot hitters together in the 1-5 slots, and put the boring guys last. We can at least have a near-rally, every 2 or 3 innings, and sometimes a big explosion. Throw out the books, Jim. Manage by the excitement principle. Forget righty-lefty. Lock in Choi at first and Saenz at third. Let Saenz bat cleanup til Kent straightens himself out. Move Bradley, Choi and Phillips up, and Kent and Drew down. Drew batting 8th might wake him up, and it would get everybody talking.

And, oh yes, banish Grabowski, the most boring Dodger of the decade. Sell him to the Devil Rays for two bowls of pottage of marinated mutton, or the Royals for three thick gourds with meat broth. Either way, a steal.

As a reminder, the over/under in Vegas for the bums was, I believe, 82 wins. And it has been my experience, that they are generally pretty right on, somehow, when they post their odds and betting parameters.

The problem the Dodgers are having is simply that the 3,4,5 hitters and not hitting in the clutch. The teams that are winning strike fear in you when these hitters come up, but Drew, Kent, Bradley (even tho doing well lately) don't give off that same feeling.

I agree about changing the lineup around in post 39...move Bradley up to third and drop Drew and Kent...maybe them batting 6,7 wakes up the team...who knows...but the 2 of them are killing rally after rally....

As dreadful as things have been lately, I think we can take some heart in the fact that Drew should start hitting better soon, based on his track record. And I think Penny's record shows him to be a better pitcher than he has been in his limited starts so far.

Choi and Milton are players whose track records aren't as solid, but who seem to be playing to the potential a lot of us saw in him.

One big question mark is Lowe. I liked the Lowe signing, and I think the early Lowe is closer to what we'll get than the fellow who's been struggling a bit as of late, but this was a calculated gamble by DePo. And Odalis has had a history of injury problems, so we'll see where that goes.

As for the whole issue of crow, the fact of the matter is that it's not like DePo's non-acquisitions are tearing it up either. Beltre's having a dismal season as of late, and so was Lima the last time I checked. Finley's also been struggling. And Green's production has also been pretty bad so far.

Anyhow, as it always is in baseball, wait and see...

WWSH

The Dodgers streak came at the beginning of April. The Padres streak came at the beginning of May. In the middle they both played around average ball. It equals out and both teams should be in it until the end.
(I think the D-Backs will fade.)

Wow. Go to a real game and miss alot around here. Penny is the real deal. He will get better. They are still hitting relatively well, too. I'm not in my cups just yet. I'd be up for a good 5th starter over a Polanco, even though I like him alot.

So... onto last night's observations in Nashville. Nakamura can HIT that ball, even with his whacked stance. On AAA level the guy looks really good, great hands and feet (at first last night). In fact the 51's look really good, the only really shakey guy was Eckert and he got one unearned. And he made an Erickson type throwing error, and Nakamura made a great stab, but rather than get steam rolled just let the ball go by.

Werth should be in the Dodger's lineup NOW. Aybar looks like he could be. Of course, Helling (on the mound for the Sounds) looked pretty good for an "old guy", and the 51s came back after he was out and I had to leave with my 3 year old.

Navarro looked good behind the plate and made some good throws. Werth is a very smart base-runner, he looked like a man among boys to me last night, and caused a stupid throwing error.

On the home team side, Rickie Weeks and Prince Feilder look like they will be playing for the Brewers very soon and Durrington was really impressive.

Boxscore: http://tinyurl.com/9jgza

So that's one anecdotal data point. :-) The future looks bright to me.

#35: My assessment is still that DePodesta did better than most GMs would have this offseason. We're coming off a season where a number of players performed significantly better than expectations (i.e., Beltre, Cora, Hernandez, Finley, Lima, Izturis, maybe even Werth?) and only two or three performed significantly below expectations (Ross, and possibly Bradley and Green). Thus, DePodesta was in a situation where he realized that he could not maintain production levels by resigning the same players. There are a number of GMs and sports writers who miss this point entirely. As we've seen based on the early performance of ex-Dodgers, we've been very fortunate that DePodesta is not one of them.

The thing that I don't think DePodesta did well is offseason negotiations. He initially targetted the right individuals (Beltre, Clement, Hudson, etc.), but missed out and was therefore forced to overpay late for plan B alternatives. Drew and Lowe are both good players, but I don't believe either one's performance merits the contract they received. On the other hand, I don't think either signing was egregious (i.e. Eric Milton or Magglio Ordonez), so I'm not that upset. The Kent signing was a coup that somewhat makes up for the other two. In the end he filled our holes, not as well as I would have liked, but certainly not poorly either. I have a hard time seeing his approach as "mis-tactis" though.

OK folks, it appears that everyone's received their Ghame Over shirts safely, which means we can now sell the extras. We have 8 extras, in the following sizes: 1 M, 2 L, 4 XL, 1 XXL. These are first come, first served, and can be bought here:

http://www.ericenders.com/yhency.htm

Thanks!

Correction - 3 XL's. Thanks Eric.

For what it's worth, SI's free agent non-bust list is out.

Three of the Ten "Booms" are Dodgers:

Kent, Drew, and...Ledee?

Maybe they'll read the article and remember how good they're supposed to be.

For perspective, after 38 games last year, the 2004 Dodgers (with "heart, soul and chemistry" intact) were 22-16 and in the middle of an EIGHT game losing streak. Placed in context, and with all of the injuries the 2005 team has had, this team is as capable of winning, as last year's model.

It's a marathon, not a sprint, and slumps happen. Two weeks ago, people were calling for Bruce Bochy's head. It's May, and there are people on the Dodger roster who will not be there in August.

But it is awfully amusing to observe rarely heard from commenters come out of the woodwork with reminders of "I told you so" as if among the literally thousands of comments on this site, we're supposed to remember.

Let's not overreact, especially offensively. The lineup has been quite good at getting people on base - "clutch" hitting will come. I like the way that Drew is still getting his walks even though the hits aren't falling. Kent is pressing a bit, but that will pass. I'm coming around to the idea of Izturis leading off, though I'm concerned that he needs to continue to get 2 hits a night to keep that OBP up there. Keep Choi in there, in the 2-slot against RHP, get Werth and APerez back, and let everyone do what they do.
Erickson needs to be replaced. I'm thinking a shared 5 slot - Alvarez starts, Dessens takes over. I think the bullpen could use another arm - maybe Dotel could be had from Oakland?

Given the other options, how low would Izturis' BA have to sink before he ISN'T our best option as leadoff hitter?... I'm guessing .290 or so.

Which, of course, is very possible. I'm not sure who would take his place -- Perez?

Choi would be an interesting leadoff hitter if Izturis really struggles. Tracy will never put him there, though.

People think a good leadoff hitter is by definition, the fastest guy on the team that can "bunt, steal bases, and move the runners over" [according to ESPN textbook]. I don't think it really matters. Besides, it's not like Izturis is a good base-stealer anyway, and he's up there every game.

But you're right - the Dodgers don't have a lot of options for a Leadoff Hitter™.

His OBP is currently .371 (w/ a BA of .321). If his BA slips to .290, his OBP will be about .340, which is very borderline for a leadoff hitter, especially considering his complete lack of power and minimal steals. I was in favor of putting Milton in the leadoff role before the season started, but that was before he decided to completely change as a hitter (walks are at an alltime low).

Frankly, I'm at a loss as to who hits leadoff if Izturis hits .275 (with similar peripherals) the rest of the way. I don't buy into the "Joe Morgan, put your fastest guy at the top of the order even if he's hitting .220" lead off strategy. If Izturis doesn't hit, he doesn't belong in the lead off position anymore than Robles deserves to hit 2nd.

Bradley could be an intriguing leadoff hitter in the Bobby Bonds speed-power mode.

#43: Nakamura went 3/5 last night and he's now hitting .421/.476/.947 for Las Vegas. He has 3 HRs in 19AB in AAA, whereas he only has 5 hits (3 singles and 2 doubles) in 39AB in majors. You gotta love small sample sizes, but how can someone who looked so bad against major league pitching be so successful in AAA?

that's vegas, baby.

My guess is that there are a lot more veteran junkball pitchers in AAA. The young guys who throw hard tend to be in AA or MLB, and Nakamura's big problem is hitting the fastball.

(Incidentally, don't take this half-baked theory for more than it's worth... just a guess.)

The altitude at Vegas should actually HURT Nakamura, not help him, since he can't catch up with the fastball, and fastballs travel slightly faster at higher elevations.

Too bad for Nakamura that "Whatever happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas."

The stats for the 51s show that Werth is starting to hit a little, but no extra base hits. The wrist must still be bothering him.

According to ESPN's Rumor Mill:

The Phillies reportedly prefer to include rookie first baseman Ryan Howard in a trade. A possible match is Polanco and Howard going to L.A. for right-handed reliever Duaner Sanchez and Class A third baseman Andy LaRoche.

gvette -- I just realized what a great tagline that is for Dodger minor league hitters. Kudos.

AAA pitchers are a lot like pitchers in Japan. If you looked at the Americans pitching in Japan, you'd think "Oh, yeah, I remember that guy, he was up with X for a while."

Buddy Carlyle had a lot of success in Japan.

In 2003 I got to answer the question "Whatever happened to Chris Holt, Jason Beverlin, and Kevin Beirne?"

Not that I pose questions like that to myself very often.

Thanks Eric. We'll find out starting tomorrow if A. Perez is the exception to the rule.

OT -- Leaving aside the merits of the issue, which I know folks on this site have strong feelings and sophisticated opinions about, I find Selig's statements regarding the need for a new steroid policy -- even if it must be passed by Congresss if the MLBPA won't accept his terms -- outrageous. Does he really think blowing up relations with the union and inviting Congress to legislate baseball policies is good for the league? Maybe the union is being unreasonable, maybe not, but no good can come from steamrolling it like this. And shouldn't the Commissioner's positions virtually always be "this is a baseball issue and baseball will handle it."

I was wondering what you guys thought of this lineup:

3rd- Antonio Perez
RF- JD Drew
1b- Hee Sop Choi
2b- Jeff Kent
CF- Milton Bradley
LF- Jayson Werth
SS- Cesar Izturis
C- Jason Phillips
Pitcher.

Trace would never do it, but I think this could maximize our run scoring potential.

#64 - Not sure what the point of dropping Izturis to 7th would be. If he stops hitting, its the 8th spot for him and his punch-and-judy singles. I also still like Drew in the #3. Maybe its an outdated adage, but I think you put your best hitter at 3. Drew will get it going. If he wasn't maintaining the OBP he is, I'd be worried. Basically, the ideal lineup for me would be to flip flop Izturis and APerez, and Drew and Choi.

I'd put Izturis 7th because he lacks the patience needed that an 8th place hitter has to have.

Phillips doenst have that much more power than Izzy, but is more patient. And Phillips can hopefully stay out of DP's, since he'll be pitched around a lot at that spot.

Phillips has much more power than Izturis; it just shows up in doubles instead of HRs.

WSJ managing editor by day, PDP groupie by night . . .

http://tinyurl.com/bxfth

I wouldnt agree OZ.

In 2004 Izzy SLG'ed .381
In 2005 Izzy is SLG'ing .395

Meanwhile in 2004, Phillips SLG'ed .326!
In 2005 he has SLG'ed .411.

For Phillips career he is only SLG'ing .392.

Recent trends show that the power in Izzy and Phillips is not that different. But their styles of hitting are.

Therefore, I'd put Phillips, a more patient hitter, in the 8th spot.
Izturis in the 7th spot wouldnt be any bigger hole than putting Phillips there would be.

But the commercials tell us that Izzy is the heir to Jackie and Maury as the Dodgers top base stealer. He's an imposing 2 out of 4 in steals this year!

Is it just me, or doesn't Izturis look a little "beefier" this year? Hopefully that will help the stamina as the year goes along, but would probably have a negative impact on his range / basestealing prowess.

I've liked the idea of Bradley leading off since I saw it on, I think, Baseball analysts or perhaps Tom Meagher brought it up. He's shown good patience in the past and can get you a leadoff homer too. As long as he doesn't try to steal, which he might try even more often if he thinks that's part of the deal for a leadoff hitter.

Oldbear, you really have it in for Izturis, don't you? His average has to keep him leading off. He has the most multi-hit games in the NL. You don't bat a guy like that 7th.

I like Izzy in the 7 hole. I think Tracy was half-right about stretching the lineup. You just do it with an good avg. guy, not a power guy. Izzy and Phillips would give a Bradley-type leadoff a lot of RBI opps.

I think Izturis is fine in the leadoff role for now, since he's hitting enough to keep his OBP up there. If he were to stop hitting, thus dropping him down in the lineup, the argument about his hitting 7th would be moot. He's a leadoff hitter when he's hitting above .280 or so, an 8th place hitter when he's not, IMO.

Oh, and by the way, Milton is having a pretty good go of it in the 5th slot too. I'd be careful about changing his role in the lineup.

Mr. Bear:

We're kind of both right, in a weird way. We're just measuring power differently.

Izturis' slugging is largely tied up in his batting average, especially this year. Subtract his AVG from SLG and you get:

2003 .315 - .251 = .064
2004 .381 - .288 = .093
2005 .395 - .321 = .074

Phillips:

2003 .442 - .298 = .144
2004 .326 - .218 = .108
2005 .411 - .290 = .121

That's a significant difference. Assuming Izturis' batting average remains above .300, his SLG will stay in the high .300's, but isn't going to cross over .400. My own opinion is that Izturis' AVG is likely to slip closer to .290, where it was last season. When power is isolated separate from batting average, Phillips comes out ahead.

oldbear has migrated over here?

Stop the presses.

The altitude at Vegas should actually HURT Nakamura, not help him, since he can't catch up with the fastball, and fastballs travel slightly faster at higher elevations.

Nakamura would benefit by facing pitchers who, on average, throw in the high-80s rather than, say, the low-90s. If there is an extra 1-2 mph gained at high altitude, I still think Nakamura would be facing pitchers who were throwing slower than what he saw in the majors. The net result is an overall gain by playing in a league with slower fastballs (net of the altitude) as well as in a hitter's park and league.

As a related question to #50, how low does Izturis's average have to drop before he actually gets dropped from the #1 spot? (As opposed to theoretically not being the best choice to leadoff.) I'd say much lower than our theoretical number, like .260. At .270 Tracy starts experimenting. But you're right, who would Tracy even put there?

I know some people have done some work showing how much (or little) batting order affects things. What if Tracy puts a real bad hitter there, say, Izturis when he's not hitting. But, because of that, it forces him to bunch together his best hitters #2 through #6, or #3 through #5, whatever you think the best hitters are. Would that out-weigh the cost of batting a bad hitter leadoff? Because right now, the #2 hole is killing things, but the leadoff spot isn't super-horrible -- making the leadoff spot horrible would bunch your bad hitters together, #8-#1, and consequently bunch your good hitters more.

So my short question is, does bunching your hitters together make up for a bad leadoff hitter?

Sort of a side comment: LaRussa usually hits L. Walker #2, which is pretty unconventional. Of course, he has Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds to play with, so that makes things easier. But still, Walker is not a normal #2 hitter, and I think most managers would put him #6.

if you're going to bunch good and bad hitters, wouldn't it be prudent to punish the bad hitters, by giving them as few atbats as possible? Why have a "bad hitter" like Izturis lead off, only to follow with a solid 2 - 6. Drop Izturis down to 8, and limit his at bats.
Last year, we thought about putting Little Giambi at leadoff (good OBP, the anti-Joe-Morgan Leadoff HitterTM though), which as I expected, was too progressive for Tracy and he was released.

Nakamura had a 3 for 5 day against Nashville yesterday.

He faced Rick Helling, Kane Davis, Chad Poronto, and Justin Lehr.

Ooh.....

The fact that Little Giambi stunk, got hurt, and admitted to steroid use doesn't make me feel that Tracy mad a bad decision last year.

#80 - almost makes up for batting Eckstein leadoff. I think that's a real life example of my scenario in #81. When Eckstein eventually comes back down to earth (similar to the regression we may see from Izzy as the season wears on), does either team move a "better hitter" that is currently hitting #2 (Walker/Choi) up to #1 in order to get your slap happy SS out of the leadoff role (Eckstein/Izturis).

Of course, that makes the bottom of the lineup thin in both cases (StL - Grudz/Ecks/Molina; LAD - Phillips/Izzy/3B du jour).

db1022, that wasn't exactly what I meant. I wasn't suggesting that we put a bad leadoff hitter in there expressly to bunch bad hitters.

I was wondering that if Tracy puts a bad hitter there, maybe Vince Coleman, because managers like fast guys, would the benefits of bunching the hitters outweigh the disadvantages in the first inning?

That is, could a manager's stupidity actually end up helping him?

Sorry, I should have referenced post #81 of db1022 (as opposed to post #84, which is not what I was responding to).

(To the Beatles "Yesterday")

Yesterday
It was April and this team could play
We thought they'd be in first place to stay
Oh, I believed in Yesterday

Suddenly
They're just half the team they used to be
The month of May hurts psychologically
'cuz we can't play, like yesterday

Why this team now blows, I don't know, I couldn't say...
I think Jim Tracy doesn't know so I long for yesterday-ay-ay-ay

Yesterday
"We're the best!" was an easy thing to say
Now we need a place to hide away
This is not as fun, as yesterday.

Humming along in sadness, SB.

Of course, now you're obligated to do "Here Comes The Sun" before tomorrow's day game . . .

Who are the Beatles?

Answer: 12-2

Question: What was the Dodgers record through 14 games?

WRONG!

Question: What is the Padres record in their last 14?

CORRECT- Bonus points if you knew they're 8-0 in 1-run games over that stretch. Extra points if you correctly identified their road uniform color as "Sand."

Personally, I hit Milton leadoff when playing my MLB video game. But then again, like #52 said, we didn't know that Bradley would turn into Larry Sheets, 1987.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sheetla01.shtml

(Best match I could find quickly for Avg, OBP, and SLG. Sheets's HR% is the same as Bradley's, too. My next choice would be Orlando Cepeda, 1963.)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cepedor01.shtml

This season, "Sand," twenty years ago, "S---."

All Nakamura has proven is he can hit inferior pitching fairly well.

I always thought the Padres' uniform color was "Puke Yellow." Actually it reminds me of the color of the walls in my late aunt's house, who was a heavy smoker. So maybe "Smoker Wall Yellow." Or "Idiotic Camouflage" on alternate uni days.

Answer: 21-17

Question: What is the Los Angeles Dodgers' record through 38 games?

WRONG!

Question: What is the Washington Nationals' record through 38 games?

CORRECT!

SB's song brought me to tears...

My favorite Johnny Carson as Karnac (sp?) joke was:

Answer: Catch 22.

Question: What would happen if you hit the Los Angeles Dodgers 100 fly balls?

Speaking of fun with records, I think someone else may need to join Elmer Dessens in the slumpola doghouse:

Dodger home record: 10-8
When Jon attended: 3-1
When Jon didn't: 7-7

Does Jon get credit for that victory on opening day since he left before the comeback?

I can claim a 1-3 home record with 3 Erickson starts. Sorry, really I'm sorry.

Karnac the Great: (holding envelope to head) "The Winners"

Ed: "The Winners"

Karnac: (opens envelope) "Who are the Dodgers playing tonight?"

#85 - Maybe I'm lost, but when you say bunching your good hitters, maybe 2-6, and have a bad, yet fast, hitter leadoff, why even waste that first out? Get right to the "Butter and Egg men" (one of my favorite Scullyisms).

89. That was the group McCartney was in before Wings.

A friend's daughter actually said that to me.

Eric Enders -- am trying to get hold of you about the Ghame Over t-shirts, but stupid Paypal is reminding me why I never use them (won't let me log in, won't let me use my credit card, breaks in myriad other ways). Can I send you a check for one of the XL's?

"Who's McCartney?"

Stella's dad, you know, the old guy who married the one legged chick.

I've been asked to get information from the official League of Nations website.

It seems to be down.

RE: #78 & #82

Yeah. Nakamura had no trouble seeing and or hitting pitches in Nashville. Helling's at about 85-87mph fastball, but, well, I AM just guessing, but it looks to me like he is working on a change off the same delivery as the fastball. My eyes aren't the same any more and I have a hard time picking up what the pitches are... I have no idea how announcers see them unless they have a monitor (they must just make that stuff up on the fly, ala Morgan). Anyway, Helling was nothing to sneeze at last night, he was "pitching", he was fooling people... Werth for one. I know Helling is not all that, but he was pitching well last night.

May has been bad to us before...

Dodger Win % By Month, 1995-2003
April - 0.556
May - 0.506
June - 0.512
July - 0.527
August -0.550
Sept - 0.539

Dbacks Win % by month, 1998-2003
April - 0.503
May - 0.563
June - 0.560
July - 0.491
August -0.586
Sept - 0.529

Tonight's Random Dodger Game Callback will be one to cheer people up.

I have some good sabermetric dirt on Dontrelle too. See ya at 5.

#102, let me try it this way (plus try out using boldface).
My question is not,
"Should a manager put a bad hitter in the #1 spot, in order to bunch the good hitters #2 through #6?"

My question is,
"If a stupid manager does put a bad hitter in the #1 spot, could the benefits of bunching #2 through #6 outweigh this bad leadoff hitter?"

I agree with you that you wouldn't want to put a bad hitter in the leadoff spot.

I read a BP article from last year praising DePodesta for acquiring positive VORP career minor leaguers as backups instead of expensive, aging, veterans a la Brian Sabean. So, using the Baseball Cube, I decided to pull together the Dodgers current career minor leaguer team. I only included players who were at least 27 years old (no longer prospects) and had at least 5 years of minor league experience. I excluded players who have already played a significant amount of time in the majors (Jason Grabowski). Here's the lineup:

C: Mike Rose (28 years old / 10 years exp.)
1B: Brian Myrow (27 years old / 6 years exp.)
2B: Tony Schrager (27 years old / 7 years exp.)
SS: Jose Flores (31 years old / 11 years exp.)
3B: Mike Edwards (28 years old / 10 years exp.)
OF: Chin-Feng Chen (27 years old / 6 years exp.)
OF: Nick Theodorou (29 years old / 7 years exp.)
OF: Henri Stanley (27 years old / 5 years exp.)
P: Pat Mahomes (34 years old / 13 years exp.)
P: Heath Totten (27 years old / 5 years exp.)
P: Buddy Carlyle (27 years old / 7 years exp.)

Obviously, most of these players have little chance of contributing (i.e. Brian Myrow, Tony Schrager, Nick Theodorou, Heath Totten, etc.), but some may end up helping over the course of 162, or in the case of Mike Edwards, already are helping.

With Dontrelle Willis pitching tonight, who do you think the Dodgers starting 8 will be?

C - Phillips
1B - Saenz
2b - Kent
3B - Edwards
SS - Izzy
LF - Repko
CF - Bradley
RF - Drew

thoughts?

vr

Xeifrank

scareduck -- sorry, the XLs are gone already.

109 & 110: I'm glad you guys got some stuff. I got nothin' yet, the latest time in the day when I have been without a "Fact of Choi".

Maybe another Beatles song...

#112: Robles is likely a better fit for 2B in my list than Schrager, but I wasn't able to find his career stats.

"Happiness is a Warm Choi"?

When Choi comes to bat we can just keep saying
Number Five
Number Five
Number Five
Number Five
Number Five

#113 - barring any unforeseen Robles' appearances, that would be what I expect.

There are those that are in favor of benching Edwards, moving Saenz to 3B, and starting Choi against lefties. Thoughts on that?

I like the idea of getting Choi in there (as futile as the thought may be considering who's handwriting is on the official lineup) but I don't mind giving Edwards a chance to play. He's hitting well, and appears to handle third as good as anyone we've seen this year (except maybe Nori).

When a lefty takes the mound, Tracy is heard singing to himself:

"Hey, you've got to hide your Choi away."

Actually, I get the impression that Jim was never too fond of that new-fangled Rock and Roll music.

"All you need is Choi"?

plus...
"All we are saying, is give Choi a chance"

Eric Enders -- re: #114-- are there any Larges left? I'm coming late to this discussion, so how could I order one? I assume you have referenced a web site on some other thread that I missed.

Thanks.

Choi is lifted for Saenz yet again, while my Bruin gently weeps.

#123 - My XL I bought this morning is seemingly increasing in value already! :-)

I will be wearing my Ghame Over shirt Saturday afternoon, by then, it's time will have passed I'm afraid.

#124 - I had this discussion on the ESPN board yesterday. Choi is not being lifted for Saenz, he's being lifted for Edwards. Would you rather have:

1B-Choi/3B Saenz
or
1B-Saenz/3B Edwards

Also, what did everyone think about Saenz pinch hitting last night? I could go back and read the comments, but nah.

I was referring more to the frequent late-game substitutions, a la last night.

It's what works for me as an artist.

#118.
Hahaha.

....Now somewhere in the dugout of the dodgers, there lived a young boy name Hee Sop Raccoon, and one day his OPS ran off with another guy, Hee Sop didn't like that...

OK, got it. I thought last night was handled properly. 7th inning, 2 out, runners on, LOOGY brought on to face Choi.

I say bring on Saenz. He pounds lefties, and it was most likely Choi's last at bat of the night. Saenz ends up smoking one into the gap...for an unfortunate "at 'em" ball.

"...and Hee Seop Racoon, fell back on the bench, only to find T.J. Simers..."

Dagwich,
See Post 45.

#130: I think Jon said it best in last night's game chat. Tracy used his best pinch-hitter for one of his best (at least hottest) starters in Choi.

Then in the ninth, we had Grabowski batting third when we could've had the infinitely better Saenz in that spot (forget that the game was basically out of reach at that point).

Why waste pinch-hitters on guys who can actually hit instead of saving them for the Robles, Bakos, and pitchers of the world, especially when you already have a short bench due to the keeping of 38 pitchers?

Thanks Eric. I didn't read the first 50 posts (busy day at work, at least until now). I'm willing to bet that I'm not only the first on my block but in Durham,NC to have one. I see the very occasional "LA" on baseball caps around town, so this will raise some eyebrows. It will cause a world class eye-roll by my wife.

Out of curiousity, I would be interested in seeing the geographical distribution of the shirts. How many east of the Mississippi, for example?

An amazing number of White Album references...

Tracy, my dear
though I spend my days in consternation
please, remember Hee
Tracy my love, don't forget Hee
Tracy my dear

#133 - I see your point, but:
1.Saenz is no great hitter when facing a RHP. He is great when facing a LHP. He was guaranteed that matchup in the 7th.

2.Managers are consistently bashed for waiting until the 9th to use their closers/stoppers, even if the crucial part of the game occurs in the 7th or 8th. Couldn't this be seen as the offensive example of that point? In the 7th you were guaranteed a favorable matchup with Saenz vs LHP, and represented the go ahead run.

Hee-Seop was a man who thought he'd hit a homer
But Plaschke said it couldn't last
Hee-Seop left his home in Kwang-Ju, South Korea
for some California grass

Hey bumbling Jim
Pinch hit for him
Bumbling Jim
Hey bumbling Jim
percentage play whim
Bumbling Jim

#136: Your points are valid as well, but I would argue that Saenz is better against righties than Grabowski anyway, no matter which side of the plate he hits from.

Great song parodies from everyone, by the way.

#136: If it were Drew up in the same position, would you have pinch hit for him? Certainly, Tracy would not have, but Choi is currently hitting much better than Drew. Choi hit LHPs well in the minors, but has gotten limitted exposure to them in the majors because of Baker, McKeon, and Tracy.

#139 - My point is centered around Saenz representing a meaningful run in the 7th. If Saenz would've just gotten a little air under that liner to the gap, Brazoban and Gagne do the rest. Sending Choi up against the LOOGY shows good faith in Choi, but IMO doesn't give you the best run-scoring opportunity at that point. And you might not get another chance like that to get back in the game, being down by multiple runs.

#140 - That may very well be true, however Drew was not batting in that situation - Choi was. McKeon had committed to the lefty, the batter represented the go ahead run with 2 outs, and you've got someone on your bench that hits the snot out of lefties. And we've got two lights out guys for the 8th and the 9th. That at bat was the game right there, folks.

There's a time for showing faith in Choi, and there's a time for winning. I just happen to think that in that one particular situation, Tracy handled it the way he should've.

One of the TEAM DEPO shirts made it to a Seibu Lions game in Japan last week.

Lineup suggestion for tonight against Willis.

Izzy - SS
Choi - 1B
Drew - RF
Kent - 2B
Bradley - LF
Saenz - 3B
Phillips - C
Repko or Edwards - LF
Lowe - P

With a struggling offense, bite the defensive bullet at third to get Saenz's bat in there against Willis. Plus leave Choi in to make Willis throw lots of pitches at the top of the order. He may not get hits but he should be able to foul off plenty of pitches.

New T-shirt idea:

"Our Bhoi Choi"

Run with it.

If Choi couldn't hit for himself last night vs the LOOGY, I'd be surprised (using Tracy's logic) that Choi would get the start at first base against arguably the best LHP in the national league.

Perhaps if the Marlins bring in their ROOGY to get Saenz in the 7th inning Tracy will bring in Choi to pinch hit. :)

vr

Xei

There's some more hilarious "posts" over at http://baseballtonight.blogspot.com/
from Hee Sop and Jim Tracy. I particularly liked this from the Tracy one (pardon the profanity):

But this sort of horseshit tests my wherewithal and seriously saps my charisma to the bone.

I get laughs every day from that site.

Would you rather:

1. take it on the chin and have a losing may and june, knowing that Tracy would be fired at the break

or

2. suck it up and keep rooting for Milton Bradley to hit late inning grand slams, knowing Tracy gets the credit for 'injecting a never say die attitude into his team'

Tonights Over/Under for Derek Lowe is 7 innings pitched. Last night Brad Penny fell 1/3 of an inning shy of the over/under line. Any guesses on how Lowe will do?

vr

Xei

db - again, I agree that using Saenz is defensible, and I absolutely agree with the general idea of using Saenz at the earliest, best opportunity. But I don't agree with using him in place of one of your hottest hitters, one who can walk or get a hit and keep the inning going.

Everyone assumes that Saenz is a better hitter against lefties than Choi, and they may be right, but there's pretty much no evidence for it at all. Choi is dramatically better against righties than Saenz. Most research shows that the platoon differential doesn't swing that much in reverse. To me, if you wouldn't hit for Drew in that situation, you don't hit for Choi.

I interrupt "Back to the Beatles" to announce that the game chat is open.

#147 - I'll take answer No. 2.

Shirts all gone... thanks, folks.

Shirts all gone... thanks, folks.

Bob Timmerman,
What was the order I predicted the division to finish at?

Was it something like this?

1.San Diego
2.Giants
3.Arizona
4.Dodgers
5.Rockies

Also, didn't some of you laugh at me regarding Arizona?