Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
If you aim, you miss.
That's the peculiarity of throwing a ball. Whether trying to hit a split end on a square out 15 yards away, or trying to hit the first baseman from the hole at shortstop, if you consciously aim as you throw, the mechanics of throwing will actually push the ball away from your target. It's a fine distinction. Your physical follow-through needs to be toward your receiver, but the mental process of aiming needs to be completed before you throw.
Pitching has its own unique qualities that distinguish it from quaterbacking or even infield play, but the axiom remains - you can't aim while pitching. You have to pick your spot before you make your pitch. You get the ball to your correct location not by aiming it as you throw but because over time, with practice, you have made the mechanics of getting a ball to a particular spot intuitive - without aiming as you throw.
Whether this is the main problem with a Dodger pitching staff that is on its way to posting the worst team ERA in Los Angeles history, by a wide margin, isn't clear. But Wednesday night, Derek Lowe acknowledged as much.
"When you play in a pitcher-friendly park like we do and you give up that many home runs, there is only one reason for it," Lowe told Tony Jackson of the Daily News. "It's probably poor pitching, leaving the ball out over the plate. I can't speak for the other 11 guys, but I tried to throw Neifi Perez a 2-0 changeup, which was the right pitch to call there. But instead of going down and away like it was supposed to, it was over the inner half. Home run."
Similarly, Duaner Sanchez, eighth-inning pitching in a one-run game with two runners on against the Cubs' Derrek Lee, who leads the league in all three Triple Crown categories (yet strangely, was not listed among several Triple Crown candidates in the print edition of the latest USA Today Sports Weekly), left a 2-1 pitch hovering smack in the middle of the plate, the last place he could have possibly wanted it to be. The three-run home run by Lee gave Chicago nine runs for the game and all but sealed the Dodger defeat.
The encouraging thing is that this problem would seem solvable. But the discouraging thing is that, according to Jackson, Dodger pitching coach Jim Colburn isn't sure what the answer is - which would seem to imply that in addition to the location issue, movement and speed of the Dodger pitches have also been inadequate.
Going into the season, we knew that most of this Dodger pitching staff was not a strikeout staff, that it was going to depend on its fielders to make plays. The consolation was that, despite offseason media reports to the contrary, the Dodgers offered above-average defense in the outfield and up the middle to make those plays.
But it all self-destructs if the ball is flying out of the ballpark. And the home runs allowed by Dodger pitchers are undoubtedly the reason they have been losing about two of every three games for weeks. Since May 1, no major league team has allowed more home runs than the Dodgers: 42 in May plus two in June.
Interestingly, Dodger pitchers have been among the best in baseball since May in not walking batters - fewer than three per game - making one wonder if they are either challenging too many batters at the wrong times, or not properly wasting their waste pitches. Last year, however, the team only walked 3.2 batters per game, while allowing home runs at an average rate.
In any case, of all the problems plaguing the team, the single most important - more than the offense or the manager - is for the team to have a pitching staff that keeps the ball in the ballpark. If this problem can be solved - the season remains alive. If it can't, nothing else matters.
While no one expected the 2005 Dodger pitching staff to be the best in baseball, there is little objective reason to think they should be the worst. Of course, real life has been known to sneer at objective reason from time to time.
Update: Some of the suggestions commenters are making about personnel changes (remember - I said "some") are contradictory. The Dodgers need to see if these kids can perform now, otherwise they have no future? That doesn't make sense. You want to go with the young kids, but cut D.J. Houlton? Why? His 7-plus ERA in the majors is so much worse than Edwin Jackson's 7-plus ERA in Las Vegas? Houlton has no chance to get better - you know this already - but meanwhile, let's give the kid - any kid - from the pitching-friendly AA his shot?
What happens if the new kid can't do the job? Does he get tossed aside too?
I think this is where we as a "think tank" start to lose our credibility. Pointing out underperfomers is one thing, change for the sake of change isn't without value when you're replacing something awful, but there needs to be some rationality. Would you accept a plan from Paul DePodesta that is essentially throwing darts at a dartboard - disposable darts at that?
Nothing was expected from the Dodger minor league pitchers, with the possible exception of the now-faltering Jackson, before 2006. It's a very young group that got slowed down by the injuries to Greg Miller and Joel Hanrahan. The fact that the major leaguers are not performing isn't going to make the minor leaguers get better sooner.
Speaking just for myself, I've got all the patience in the world to watch kids like Jackson take their lumps. If you're not sure if you have it, ask yourself what it would have been like to be a fan of the 2003 Detroit Tigers. They went with the kids for their pitching staff. Jeremy Bonderman might be nice to look at now, but that team was not a pretty sight.
If you're already ready to give up on Houlton, that's a clear signal that you don't have the stomach to endure the level of performance the kid pitchers are likely to produce. You're asking for misery. And where do you go from there? You can't cut everybody.
So what am I saying? Factor in your potential disappointment in the minor league callups before you call them up. The minor league pitching might help a little in 2005, but ultimately the solution to the Dodgers' pitching problems has to come from major league talent - that of the Dodgers or some other team.
1. I've been reading some of the chats since I had to take an involuntary break from posting about my favorite topic. We are a grumpy crew, people. Giving up 42 homers in a month will do that to anyone. We need a group hug. I'm not sure what that hug is but we need it.
2. I have found out that the "fact of Choi" about him breaking a basketball rim is apocryphal. I apologize. It was a heckuva story that remains interesting because the guy who broke the rim wasn't Choi but somebody else. Archipelago e-mailed to say he screwed up in the translation; his friend in Palau was talking about Choi and then started talking about the rim-shattering story and Archipelago got them mixed up. Bottom line, Choi didn't break a rim.
But he can dunk.
3. As I"m literally being kicked off the comptuer, let me say I really, really miss this site.
can i change my screenname to Suffering Dodger? j/k
(I hope not the latter because Jason Phillips is one of the few bright spots offensively.)
There is a conventional physics wisdom that says fastballs will jump off a bat harder than a slower pitch, so a fastball pitcher is more likely to allow HRs. That may be true, but a 94-mph pitch is probably a bit tougher to square up on than a 88-mph pitch.
Weaver, Erickson, Alvarez - all are relative soft-tossers.
The Dodgers have allowed 3 HRs to opposing pitchers, which is half of the 6 total HRs hit by NL pitchers.
Are more 'fastball' pitchers the answer? I don't know, but some focused research could be interesting.
RIP, George Mikan, 1924-2005.
I recall Tracy stating in spring training that is was not beneficial to have the same types of pitchers pitch on consecutive days.
It seems like opposing teams can lock into our starting pitchers fairly easily.
I think someone like a C.C. Sabathia could do wonders for the staff. First, the guy is imposing (6'7", 275), throws inside heat, etc. Then, we could have a Weaver, Perez or Lowe in between C.C. and Penny. Indians aren't going anywhere. They might let us have him for a few blue-chippers.
I doubt the catchers have anything to do with it. Except maybe for the rookies, pitchers pretty much call the game, with catchers just going through signs until the pitcher nods. Vinnie has confirmed several times this year that this is how the Dodgers (and most teams) work. The catcher suggests, the pitcher chooses. Most of the time, they're on the same page, so the catcher doesn't guess wrong. I think we saw a good example when Rose caught Gagne for the first time a couple nights ago - all those trips to the mound were likely Rose asking Gagne what he wanted called.
And with the pitchers. As I suggested a couple days ago, every pitcher on the staff except maybe Penny and maybe Wunsch seems to be underperforming his abilities. So the GM can't be blamed unless the decline was predictable. It's unlikely that it's the pitching coach's fault - he needs to fix broken mechanics and approaches perhaps, but this sort of malady isn't likely to be contagious - it's not an epidemic with a single cause, but a bunch of individual declines. So what's up? Some guys might be hurt (Weaver IS a hard thrower, and that he's in the 80s is worrisome; Perez IS hurt). Some might be past their due dates (Carrara, Erickson). Some might not be ready (all the kids, including Sanchez). And some might just be slumping. I think this is just really bad luck to have so many guys below their own means at once.
And as we've discussed, there doesn't seem to be an easy answer. No one of quality will come available. The arguments about rushing up the farm-hands have been made - obviously that's a tough call. Right now, given Jon's observations about HRs and BBs, I'd say that these guys need to nibble more, especially against aggressive hitters. They're actually throwing too many strikes!
http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/beatwriters.asp?column=gregor&id=56482
Would Edwin, Billingsley, LaRoche, and A. Perez be enough for Chavez and Zito? I know Dotel is on the block too and with our GM's ties to Beane I'm sure we could get it done without getting raped of our farm system.
The point that we're missing, and we're not just missing it, it's flying over our heads like a v-2 rocket, is that our pitching staff is simply underwhelming. With not enough true power pitchers to balance out the junk ballers, opposing teams know exactly what is coming all of the time. As such, they sit and wait and hit homeruns.
We can spin this anyway we like because we don't want to believe the truth.
Of the top 50 NBA stars voted at the NBA's 50th Anniversary in 1997, only four have passed away: Mikan, Pete Maravich, Wilt Chamberlain, and Dave DeBusschere.
I'd bet that if the Dodgers were in first by 6.5 games, you wouldn't see that [sic] there.
We all need to take a collective deep breath, and think about all the prospects we're going to aquire when we unload Penny and Weaver. 2006!
It seems like every team could wait on the sinker, especially as it seems it's everyone's out pitch.
As annoying as Kaz Ishii was, he was always able to keep his ERA semi-respectable by doing a decent job of keeping the ball in the park.
Maybe the current Dodgers staff should take a page from Ishii's notebook and pitch less aggressively, walking a few men instead of leaving it out over the plate.
During the 12-2 start I was saying "wow, we did this with poor Drew performances, without Penny and Werth." I felt like we were kicking ass at half strenght. We get Penny, Werth, and to some extent Drew all playing and playing decent respectively and we're terrible.
So as soon as their mid lineup goes cold, another area of their team may step up.
If so, maybe Ishii vs. Erickson is in Ishii's favor, we have Phillips producing at an above average level.
Maybe the move was aweful in the sense that it was done with the idea that we had more than enough pitching, and its become obvious that we don't.
Valdes(z) gave up 32 homers. Park gave up 31. Perez gave up 23. Dreifort coughed up 20 and Kevin Brown surrendered 19.
The Dodgers used 21 different pitchers that year and all but one (Antonio Osuna in 4 2/3 IP) gave up at least one home run. Alan Mills gave up 10 in 72 1/3 IP. Dave Mlicki pitched in just two games and managed to give up a home run, a game-tying pinch home run to Kelly Stinnett in the bottom of the 16th in Arizona.
The question is, would keeping Ishii and Dave Ross be better than getting Phillips and getting rid of Ishii. I'm inclined to think that we should have kept Ishii, even if meant a weaker catcher.
I love this site and the people that post on it. Seeing Senator Lieberman at the game was at least as cool as that well-endowed chick jumping up and down the other night. :-) I just can't go through a day without checking back, and feel guilty when I miss any of the posts. Bob T, always makes me laugh, and I think Sam in DC and I would get on famously. I don't know why, but I just see things differently than so many of the down trodden. I think we are not THAT bad, yet. Of course, I thought Werth would be doing more right-away. But I like what I saw in Lowe, I hope the injury isn't serious, but seeing Weaver laughing about it actually made me laugh, too... and probably Lowe. If I'm Lowe, I'm going out there thinking, I won a world series I can do this. And sure he forced it a few places, but he had it in some places, too. I agree with Tracy that having similar pitchers, one after another is not good.
Don't the Dodgers have some more money in the payroll bank? Depo has pulled off some good trades in the past, so I'm hopeful he can do it again. If Drew AND Kent are gonna suck the whole rest of the way, there's nothing to be done anyway. But I don't think that will happen (it still could, though, we've seen our share it). Does anybody else think that some of the Dodgers seem to be swinging for the fences a bit much, too?
Anyway, I still think it's a race between us, D-backs (I know, I know), and the Padres, and the Padres are taking off.
Also, I once tried to show that several pitchers' ERAs were signifcantly better with Piazza behind the plate, but it was a total wash, I couldn't get anything useful from the numbers.
And, for some reason, it really bugs me that Vin got the 4 HRs thing wrong about Green.
Finally, yeah, the bad guys win in the book. But I try not to use the term "bad guys" too much around Brian, my son, because he has a playmate whose parents allow him to watch things like spiderman movies and X-men.... I spend TOO much time trying to explain why this other little boy is obsessed with good guys and bad guys.
So long and thanks for all the WinShares!
(... because I just posted a triology)
That is, er, not good... OK, maybe I just need to bend over and kiss my...
Weren't Jackson and Sanchez supposed to provide the "heat" in the rotation? Yikes.
...and weren't the Dodgers still in it until the 3 run dinger off Sanchez?...
Erickson was worth the experiment. We went at least two starts too long with him however.
Sinkerballers are not supposed to give up many homeruns, yet ours are. Why? No sink. Those balls have been up and in the middle of the plate for the most part. I think Vlad hit one from the dirt, so that can be discounted. So why are our guys leaving the ball up so often is the real question. And I don't have an answer.
Hopefully this is just a slump, not a characteristic.
Of the sinkerballers we have, only Weaver it seems to me, has lost significant velocity. That could be due to the injury no one wants to talk about.
However, I think both Penny and Gagne have lost 3-4 mph from their fastballs since last year, and that worries me as much as anything. Gagne especially looks less dominating to me. Hopefully they both just need more work to build up the arm strength.
If we trade for a starter now, we risk dealing kids in what could be a futile run to the playoffs.
Come July, Brad Penny will be an extremely intriguing option for a contender. I'm sure Depo would be able to turn him around for some nice pieces for next year.
#52 - What do you mean "played"? HS?
So, why the long balls??? The only thing I can think of is Lowe and Weaver (especially Weaver) do not have confidence in the sinker ball. The other teams are waiting on those and to compensate for that and their own indecisiveness over pitch location, they end up throwing pitches which are no where in the strike zone where they should be. Kind of what Jon touched on before about choosing a pitch location before throwing a pitch.
The answer... it's hard to say. Not trading Ishii would NOT have been the answer. That is a little ridiculous. If I were a little bolder, which DePo has shown himself to be, I would trade Weaver (especially if he is not in our plans starting next year) and get a Joe Randa/Willie Mo Pena/Placido Palanco type player for our team. And from our farm system, bring up Edwin Jackson as a full time started for the remainder of the season. Let him grow up a bit. I like the rotation set up as Penny - Perez - Lowe - Jackson - Thompson (or Dessens). I think most of us agree that Jackson will not get his confidence back if her keeps pitching in Las Vegas for the next year. Why not get a good idea if he can be a major league pitcher right now? We have to bite the bullet with him at some point, unless we are willing to trade him.. but right now his trade value is not high enough to get something significant in value, and I think his high side for the Dodgers is still worth exploring.
I somehow fell out of varisty stuff in HS, and never competed in anything in College, did some IPSCC and lots of WhiteWater Canoeing with my dad. I was an OK outfielder, but sucked in the batters box, was much better at soccer for some reason.
What does a yellow light mean?
Slow down.
What ... does ... a ... yellow ... light ... mean?
Slow down!
What ... ... does ... ... a ... ...
Thanks.
http://tinyurl.com/3erm4
Why can't we find just one young pitcher who throws 95-96 consistently and blows other hitters away?
All of our pitchers nibble around the edges. That is why Gagne is so good, he is such as change from the rest of the staff.
I don't know, is it our scouts? or our pitching coaches? I don't know what the problem is, but variety of stuff and speeds is the key...
I really don't think firing him would do anything. Not like he can inspire a pitcher to throw strikes. Aside from Weaver, usually when players comment on Tracy it's in a favorable manner.
69. [Tracy's] slowly grown on me.
Nothing a hot shower and a good bar of soap can't cure. :)
vr, Xei
Soft-tossing home run generators making $7M may work here in LA, but others may not find them so appealing.
Our staff is going nowhere right now, take a shot with the young guys and see if they have the right stuff. If not, we are kidding ourselves that the future holds bright...
#1 RHP Chad Billingsley-20yrs old in AA with plus command and decent fastball in low 90's. Projects as a 1 or 2
#2 RHP Edwin Jackson- 21yrs old with fastball consistently between 96-98 but bad control and getting hit in AAA. Projects as a 1
#3 LHP Chuck Tiffany- 20yrs old in High A ball. Great fastball, decent control. Fastball in upper 90's, good curve. Projects as a 1-3.
#4 LHP Greg Miller- 20yrs old in AA but injured for the better parts of 2 seasons now. 6'5" and good control and good fastball in mid 90's. Projects as a 1 when healthy.
#5 LHP Ryan Ketchner- 22 yrs old in AAA similar to Tom Glavine in his control and no plus stuff. Projects as a 4-5
#6 LHP Derek Thompson- 24yrs old with decent pitches and most scouts have him projected as a reliver.
#7 RHP Jonathon Broxton- 20yrs old in AA with great fastball. Projects as a closer or 4-5
#8 RHP Justin Orenduff- 22yrs old in High A with good command and good fastball. Projects as a 2-4
#9 LHP Mike Megrew- 21yrs old in High A but injured for the year. He is a 6'6" lefty with good fastball and cutter. Projects as a 3-4
#10 RHP Joel Hanrahan-23yrs old in AA recovering from injuries. His stuff is plus but command is still not where it needs to be. Projects as 3-4
Other Notables: RHP Chris Malone (21 in Low A), LHP Scott Elbert (19 in Low A), RHP Brian Pilkington (22 in High A), RHP Julio Pimental (19 in High A)
vr, Xei
It is him, not his manager. Otherwise, you are also saying Torre is no good.
Tonights Over/Under is 5 1/3 IPs
Please post your virtual best.
vr, Xei
I think Weaver is worthless on the market with his contract, unless we pay it anyway. Who doesn't have five 6 ERA guys in their system? We do.
Who for Gagne? There's the rub. It's not clear that, unlike last year, you can get "anybody" for him. First, his contract, then the problems we've already discussed. It has to be on the table though. We have too many problems getting to the ninth inning to worry about the ninth inning much anymore.
vr, Xei
In other words, LA's system has 10-12 pitchers who might be good to great for the Dodgers beginning in 2007-08, but no one who's really on the edge of helping any major league team this year.
I bet DePo trades a few of the pitching prospects, and also a hitting prospect or two before the July deadline. It makes no sense to hoard all of them. Obviously, any GM takes a risk trading a skilled prospect, but I don't think Dodger fans are willing to wait the amount of time necessary for the turnover to be completed. This ain't Milwaukee. It's hardly mortgaging your future to reduce your pool of outstanding pitching prospects from 12 to 10 in exchange for someone who can help LA take this take-able division this year.
92 - agreed.
Weaver himself has said he is pitching with a "dead arm." He claimed on a radio interview about a week ago that he goes through this, many pitchers go through this, during each season. He said this year's occurence was earlier than usual, but otherwise not unexpected.
I would think Gagne would be of more value to us if we were winning games, considering that Tracy will only use him in a save situation or tie ball game in the top of the 9th. If this team isn't going to win, then trading him would become an option if we got ALOT in return. But then I step back into reality and realize that Sir Gagne isn't going anywhere. There would be a HUGE mutiny by Dodger fans if he was shipped anywhere. Next idea!?
vr, Xei
1. chad billingsley
2. jonathan broxton
3. edwin jackson
4. greg miller
5. chuck tiffany
vr, Xei
#1 SS Joel Guzman- 20yrs old in AA. 6'6" and plays SS. Hits for power, runs well, decent defense. Tends to strike out a lot as most power hitters do. Projects as a Starter at either SS, 3B, or OF
#2 3B Andy LaRoche-21 in High A. SS by trade now playing 3B in our system and already has 20HR's this season. He is above average defensively. Projects as a ML Regular at 3B.
#3 1B James Loney- 21 in AA. Injuries have hampered his career but is considered an outstanding 1B with a great eye and natural swing. Still working on his power but projects as a solid ML regular.
#4 2B Delwyn Young- 22 in AA. Horrible defensively and currently playing 2B but a nice switch hitter with pop from both sides of the plate. Projections: DH or OF
#5 3B Blake DeWitt- 19 in Low A. Great Bat but struggling right now. Good pop but needs to work on learning the strike zone as he K's a lot!
#6 C Dioner Navarro- 21 in AAA. Great plate discipline, good defensive C with doubles power from both sides of the plate. Projects as ML Regular
#7 C Russell Martin- 22 in AA. Great plate discipline and still learning C. He has good pop also and projects as ML Regular
#8 1B Cory Dunlap- 21 in High A. His weight is a concern but hits for average and power with great plate discipline. Projections: Too Early to tell.
#9 2B Estanislau Abreu- 20 in High A. Good Average, defense, and speed. Projections: too early to tell
#10 SS Chin-Lung Hu- 21 in High A. Great defensive SS with good average and speed. Projections: Too Early to Tell
Honorable Mentions: OF Matt Kemp (21 in High A), OF Xavier Paul (21 in High A, once considered one of our great prospects), OF Chin-Feng Chen (27 in AAA with defensive deficiencies and unproven at ML Level), OF Jason Repko (24 in AAA), OF Cody Ross (24 in AAA, once considered the jewel of the Tigers system we traded Steve Colyer for him).
Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow
There'll be sun!
Just thinkin' about tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs,
And the sorrow
'Til there's none!
Tomorrow, tomorrow, I love ya tomorrow, you're always a day away!
Repeat, Curtain, Encore, Thank you, the matinee is half-price!
Oh, I say D
I say D-O,
D-O-D
D-O-D-G,
D-O-D-G-E-R-S
Team, team, team, team!
Mmmm!
I say M-C,
M-C-C-
M-C-C-O,
M-C-C-O-U-R-T
The writer? No, the owner!
Eric Gagne, oh my Brazoban,
Cesar Izturis, I love you so.
And we defy
Defy the B-R,
B-R-E
B-R-E-W,
The B-R-E-W-E-R-S, Brewers!
Play ball!
Russell Branyan is at bat with the bases jammed.
Russell Branyan, with a wham, bam, he hit a grand slam.
In the very first inning, but it's only the begining,
In the third, like a bird, we get two on, none away.
Then Phillips hits into a double play.
Here comes Big Jayson Werth, yessiree,
Boy, what a swing! Strike three.
Oh dem B
Oh dem B-U,
B-U-M
B-U-M-S.
Dem bums, dem bums, dem dry bums.
Oh they may be bums, but they're my bums.
Top of the fourth, say hey Carlos Lee
Hits a three bagger down the right field line.
Then he's out trying to stretch it to a homer,
As Phillips tags him on the bottom of the spine.
With a crack you can hear
All the way back up to
Milwaukee, open your hospitals!
Charge!
Inning six, Izturis
Draws a walk, in the coach's box
Glenn Hoffman, Glenn Hoffman
Starts to wiggle and to twitch.
A signal? No, an itch.
Go Cesar, go Cesar, go go go!
Cesar goes, the catcher throws,
Right from the solar plexus.
At the bag he beats the tag
That mighty little waif,
And umpire Crawford cries, "Yer out!"
Out? Out???
Down in the dugout Tracy glowers,
Up in the booth Vin Scully frowns.
Out in the stands McCourt grins,
Attendance fifty thousand.
And what does McCourt do?
Charge!
Bottom of the ninth, four to nuttin',
Last chance, push the button!
Oh we're pleading, begging, on our knees,
Come on you Flatbush refugees!
Izturis at bat, hit it for me once,
Stu Miller throws, Cesar bunts.
Obermueller runs to field the ball and Cirillo covers first,
Miller runs to back up Cirillo,
Miller crashes into Cirillo,
Miller falls, drops the ball, Crawford calls "Safe!"
Yea, Cesar!
Perez up, Obermueller grunts.
Miller throws, Perez bunts.
Overbay runs to field the ball and Cirillo covers first,
Miller runs to back up Cirillo,
Cirillo crashes into Miller,
Cirillo falls, drops the ball, Crawford calls "Safe!"
Yea, Crawford!
J.D. Drew gets a hit
And Kent does the same,
Here comes Mr. Werth
With a chance to win the game.
Hit it once!
Big Jayson bunts?!?
Overbay runs to field the ball and Cirillo covers first,
Obermueller hollers "Miller",
Miller hollers "Cirillo,"
Overbay hollers "Obermueller," points to Cirillo with his fist,
And that's the Obermueller Miller Cirillo Hallah-luia Twist!
The Drew and Kent score score, it's four to four,
And Werth's still rounding the bases.
>From second to third, it's almost absurd,
Amazement on everyone's faces.
He's heading for home, he hasn't a chance,
The poor lad is gonna be dead.
But the ball hits him right in the seat of his pants
And he scores! That's using your head.
So I say D
I say D-O,
D-O-D-G-E-R-S.
The team that's all heart,
All heart and all thumbs,
They're my Los Angeles, your Los Angeles,
Our Los Angeles...
Do you really think we'll win the pennant?
Bums!
Ooh, ooh, ooh dem bums.
i have some conflict with your list.
i would probably rate them like this, taking into account both offense and defensive capabilities:
1. joel guzman- 3b,1b,rf,lf
2. andy laroche- 3b, 2b
3. russel martin- C
4. james loney- 1b
5. willy aybar- 2b/3b
6. delwyn young- 2b/lf
7. dioner navarro- C
8. ching lung hu- SS/2b
9. blake dewitt- 3b/2b
10. matt kemp- lf/cf/rf
11. jason repko- lf/cf/rf
12. cory dunlap- 1b
i dont think abreu has a future with the big league club.
The rankings were just a personal thing so don't take offense to them, lol.
oh its cool, im not taking offense. i just like to talk dodger prospects.
abreu's plate discipline ie abysmal. thats the reason i dont see him having a future with big league dodgers. he probably has more value to other clubs like the angels, marlins or twins that value his style of play more.
Are the only two reasons why people think Loney projects to be a ML regular are (1) his rookie-league season and (2) his youth?
Because he's shown nothing for 2 seasons that would make me think he could play everyday in the ML for a good team. No HR power, poor to mediocre batting average at A and AA, tendency to injury (could be bad luck, of course).
Count me among the group that doesn't always buy the "but he's only X years old and will get better" argument. Sure, he COULD get better, but I wouldn't EXPECT it for him, or anyone, based on age alone.
Struggling at AA at 19 doesn't mean you won't continue to struggle at AA at 21 or 23.
What's Loney's ceiling, anyway? Sean Casey? I just don't see the big deal with him.
i agree, i think we have more pitching depth but you cant argue with twop top of the line hitting prospects in laroche and guzman. That along with martin, who will get on base at a .400 clip, thats a pretty good collection at the top of the prospect pyramid.
since our first pick is 40 in the draft, i think we will take a HS arm. since most of the polished college hitters will be picked before 40.
well if you want to get optimistic about loneys cieling, its probably a john orlerud. A lyle overbay is a good current comparison.
loney has shown he can hit actually. spring training in 2004, AFL last fall where he hit over .300
he has had shown flashes of being a good hitter, just hes been hampered by freak injuries which has slowed his development.
But i agree, if he doesnt produce this year, where he will be 21, repeating AA, he will not be regarded as a high prospect anymore.
Re: the update. Thank you. I couldn't agree more. You saved me a lot of typing. I haven't heard much about Tom Farmer. He seems pretty solid but he's never mentioned with the other pitching prospects. I realize you may hold a grudge since he beat Stanford in the CWS championship in 2001.
Now on to other peeves. The surest way to raise my baseball ire is to talk about chemistry. The second is to bring up confidence. No adult professional player should have confidence issues. If sitting Choi against left handers hurts his confidence than he shouldn't be playing at all. If Weaver loses his sense of himself after giving up a home run then he's not a professional. I should say that neither of these players have expressed anything about confidence. That issue exists only in the minds of Joe Morgan and Dr. Phil. It is a ghost that lurks along side chemistry and heart and soul.
While I am very ashamed of the pitching performance, let's not forget that the Dodger offense is back to its old ways again...not hitting and not scoring runs...Let's remember that when this team was assembled, we gave up a little defense for offense...except for the first 14 games, the offense really hasn't been there. It's not just pitching, it's the offense as well. Looking at some May stats: it appears that the Dodgers are averaging 4.2 runs per game in the month of May (seems decent), but a lot of those runs came in complete blowouts. When the Dodgers lost games in May, they averaged 2.1 runs per game. I think this could be an additional factor at why we're .500. So much for creating offense with OBP, OPS, SLG, ETC...
Meanwhile, they've allowed at least four runs in 35 of them and at least three runs in 42 of them.
In two-thirds of their games, Dodger pitchers have required the team to get at least five runs to win.
The offense could be better, but it's not true to say that the offense hasn't been there since the opening run.
And let's not dismiss the value of the blowout. I don't think we'd be dismissing a shutout by the pitchers if they started to come around.
Jason Schmidt
Adam Eaton
Livan Hernandez
Mark Mulder
Jeff Suppan
Chris Carpenter
Tim Hudson
Mike Moehler
Josh Beckett
Jarrod Washburn
John Lackey
Brett Tomko
Greg Maddux
Carlos Zambrano
Not really much of a pattern, except that they are mostly righties (except for Mulder and Washburn). But there are hard throwers, soft tossers and sinker ball guys
Starters the Dodgers have hit fairly hard:
Kirk Rueter
Brett Tomko (on both lists!)
Javier Vazquez (who should be on the other list too)
Shawn Estes
Adam Eaton
Tim Redding
Jason Jennings
Joe Kennedy
Paul Wilson (and how!)
Dontrelle Willis
Russ Ortiz
The Dodgers do fairly well against mediocre middle relievers
Tracy, and his bad game management isn't blameless, but neither is DePo for his inactivity (other than calling up AAAA retreads), and everyone in a Dodger uniform not named Izturis and Gagne.
Despite the doom and gloom, the season isn't lost, and there are players on the roster who are capable, but underperforming (Drew,Werth, etc.) For those all you can do is ride it out.
If there was immediate starting help available from the minors, would Alvarez be making a third start? Would everyone actually be hoping for a swift return from Dessens?
In the meantime, it's time to cull the roster, starting with Erickson, and even Carrara. Try Houlton for the next start, and give Alvarez a chance to succeed in the bullpen.
Maybe DePo should stop trying to use AAAA free agents as band aids (the way Evans tried to use over the hill veterans like Henderson and McGriff), and work some minor deals for actual major leaguers to plug the holes in the pitching staff and bench.
The Dodgers were a good team in April - their decline, however sharp, has been recent. I wouldn't assume that just because he hasn't traded for a major leaguer in the past two months doesn't mean he won't do it in the next. As we all know by now, he likes to evaluate in the first two months, then make deals in the second two months.
Derek Thompson is now in the majors at 24 years old. The Dodgers picked him up as a Rule 5 draftee during the 2003 season from Cleveland. He was immediately shut down for the season due to injuries. He pitched well last year for Jacksonville and was pitching well for them this year before being called up. Baseball America does not rate him as one of the Dodgers top 30 prospects.
Ryan Rupe is in AAA at 30 years old. He's gone back and forth from the minors, pitching for Tampa Bay 1999-2002 and Boston in 2003. Baseball Cube doesn't have any professional experience listed for him in 2004. He's pitched well in five starts for Las Vegas with a 3.80 ERA, K'ing 28 in 24.1 innings, though the 4 HRs allowed don't bode well. He was a non-roster invitee to Spring Training and is on the Las Vegas roster for insurance.
DJ Houlton is holding down mop-up duty (with our buddy Erickson) in the majors at 25 years old. The Dodgers picked him up as a Rule 5 draftee from Houston this year. He must remain on the 25-man roster the entire season, or be offered back to Houston. Houlton pitched very well in AA last year as a starter. He has three quality pitches, but so far has been hit very hard with a .483 BABIP.
Pat Mahomes is in AAA at 34 years old. He's a journeyman pitcher (Twins, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Pirates), who has logged a 5.48 career ERA in 708 IP since 1992. He's pitching very well so far in AAA, with a 2.97 ERA in 63.7 IP. On the other hand, he's not striking out many (42 Ks), he's walking too many (28 BBs), and he's giving up a decent number of HRs (1.13 HR/9). The combination of his peripherals and his large career record of sub-mediocrity does not bode well for success in the majors. Nonetheless, the Dodgers have stated he would be given a shot before any other pitcher in AA.
Edwin Jackson is in AAA at 21 years old. He was selected by the Dodgers in the 6th round of the 2001 draft. His stellar performance in AA and Los Angeles (22 IP) in 2003 rocketed him to top prospect status. Expectations were extremely high in 2004, but he performed poorly in Spring Training (9.28 ERA in 21.1 IP), fought through injuries in AAA (5.86 ERA in 90.2 IP) and performed terribly in his second major-league callup (7.30 ERA in 24.2 IP). Baseball America still ranked him the second best pitching prospect in the Dodgers system and 3rd best prospect overall coming into this season. Unfortunately, Jackson seems to have regressed further in 2005. He has mixed in a couple of quality starts with a number of poundings leading to a 6.94 ERA in 46.7 IP. Due to his poor performance, he has been called out by Royster twice in the Las Vegas news. Even with his current numbers, DePodesta has repeatedly stated that Jackson is in consideration for fill-in starts, which makes sense for no other reason than that he is already on the 40-man roster.
Chad Billingsley is in AA at 20 years old. He was a first-round draft pick in the 2003 draft. He dominated at Vero Beach and Jacksonville last year. He has continued to pitch well this year in Jacksonville, with a couple of rough outings inflating his overall numbers. Baseball America rates him as the Dodgers top pitching prospect and 2nd best prospect overall.
Jonathan Broxton is in AA at 20 years old. He is one month younger than Billingsley and was selected one year earlier in the second round of the 2002 draft. He put up impressive numbers in Vero Beach last year, and has roughly matched Billingsley's numbers in Jacksonsville so far this year (a few less Ks, but he hasn't gotten his numbers inflated either).
Chuck Tiffany is a LHP in high-A at 20 years old. He was selected in the second round of the 2003 draft. He put up impressive strikeout numbers in the Sally League last year (141 K in 100 IP) and is continuing his pace this year (51 K in 40.1 IP). He seems likely to be moved up to Jacksonville after the All-Star break.
Justin Orenduff is in high-A at 22 years old. He was selected in the first round of the 2004 draft. He's dominating at Vero Beach so far this year. He's third in the league in ERA (1.86) and Ks (68) and he's only pitched 48.1 innings. Baseball America rated him as the closest 2004 draft pick to the majors, our 11th best pitching prospect and 24th best prospect overall. He'll likely pass a lot of people on that list in next year's edition.
Joel Hanrahan is in AA at 23 years old. He was selected in the second round of the 2000 draft. He pitched well for Jacksonville in 2003, but has regressed since moving up to Las Vegas in 2004. He started 2005 with Vero Beach, and moved back up to Jacksonville in May. In 5 starts in Jacksonville, his performance hasn't been especially good, with 22 Ks in 21.2 IP a positive, but 10 BBs, 6 HRs, and a 4.98 ERA outweighing the Ks. He'll need to quickly regain his form this season, otherwise he'll be passed by a slew of Dodgers pitching prospects. He's currently filling a slot on the Dodgers 40-man roster.
Ryan Ketchner is another LHP on the 40-man roster. He's 23 years old and should be in AAA, but minorleaguebaseball.com and lv51.com don't have him listed on the Las Vegas roster. Like Thompson, Ketchner was not on Baseball America's top 30 Dodgers prospect list.
Greg Miller is a LHP currently recovering from shoulder surgery at 20 years old. He was selected in the first round of the 2002 draft. Prior to his surgery, he had three plus pitches with a mid 90s fastball, a hard slider, and a power curveball. At this point, if he can come back to full strength, he projects as a front-of-the-rotation power pitcher. Baseball America's pre-season report suggested he could be pitching with Vero Beach by the middle of this month, but I haven't heard any updates. Even after the surgery, BA rated him our 3rd best pitching prospect and 7th best prospect overall.
Other Baseball America top 30 prospects:
Julio Pimentel is currently in high-A at 19 years old. He was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2003.
Scott Elbert is a LHP currently in low-A at 20 years old. He was selected in the first round of the 2004 draft. He's pitching well with 37 Ks in 31.1 IP and a 2.87 ERA.
Blake Johnson is currently in low-A at 20 years old. He was selected in the second round of the 2004 draft. He's pitching well with a 3.30 ERA, but not blowing batters away, with only 38 Ks in 46.1 IP.
Javy Guerra is currently in low-A at 19 years old. He was selected in the fourth round of the 2004 draft. He's not pitching as well as the other low-A prospects, with a 4.91 ERA and only 35 Ks in 47.2 IP.
Mike Megrew is a LHP on the Vero Beach roster at 21 years old. He was selected in the fifth round of the 2002 draft. He pitched well for Vero Beach last year, but he had Tommy John surgery in the offseason and will likely miss all of 2005.
also, Drew looks completely tied up by anything on the inside of the plate. i've been astonished watching him look at pitches sailing by that he should be swinging at and then see him flailing at pitches on his fist or belt buckle. maybe he needs corrective lenses?
just wondering.....great poem Bob!
rgds, will
As for DePo, there is always a question, like there was last year, of whether you are going to be a buyer or seller in the trade market. The longer he waits as the team declines, the more the answer becomes a self fufilling prophecy.
This team has been bad, longer than it was good, with holes evident in the pitching staff, and on the bench. If you can't stem the bleeding internally with AAAA guys like Edwards, Rose, or Buddy, time to look outside the organization before its too late.
Trace: I'll take that bet.
---
``As hot as he is and as well as he's swinging the bat, if you mislocate pitches in the middle of the plate to this guy, you're going to pay for it,'' Dodgers manager Jim Tracy said. ``When you lead in all offensive categories that would qualify you for the Triple Crown. It's very obvious that he's really beginning to find himself offensively.''
----
wow: When you lead in all offensive categories that would qualify you for the Triple Crown.
"The one you really need to have, if you don't have it that's why you need it".
"Well, if you get hurt and miss work, it won't hurt to miss work."
"And they give you cash, which is just as good as money."
---
"That duck," he says, breaking up. "I had no idea until I was on the set, they have a farm where they train these ducks to act. So the day of the commercial, they bring three ducks. Two of them are back-ups in case the No. 1 duck got scared or something.
"What they do is teach the duck to look up every time he hears a bell ringing. So in the commercial, I say my line, and the duck looks up. That's because he just heard that bell. I don't know how they slammed the door [on the duck's beak], though. And I don't know how they taught him to walk on the street like that. That part, I never saw."
http://www.bergen.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkxMTMmZmdiZWw3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTY2OTA3NTEmeXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2
2. Your trade proposals need to have some common sense figured in. Teams that are not in the playoff hunt are not going to trade the young guns (Sabbathia) who are their future but the old guns who make money.
3. Even if Barry Zito is overrated I'd make the deal that was talked about above. Who cares if Billingsly and Jackson are A rated prospects. The history of baseball is littered with the remains of A rated pitching prospects. Eric Chavez is the real deal and to get a left hand hitting monster 3b who is also a legitimate gold glove man for 11 million a year I'd do in a second. Sure he's off to a slow start but he's young and already has a history as the best hitting 3b in the AL until AROD switched positions. LaRoche is having a monster year. He's also already 21 in A ball with 10 errors. Given that he's only in A ball now, you have to figure he would not be of any help to the big club until 2007, plus no certainty that he will continue to put up the big numbers as he's challenged by pitchers his own age. The trade rumour is probably bull because I'd be shocked to see Beane move Chavez but I would not be shocked if Depo does trade the A grade pitching talent because he knows how hard it is for that A grade talent to become the Major League Ace.
JMO
true. but how hard is it to acquire an ace any other way? most of the aces in the majors are HOME GROWN. depo realizes that a team isnt going to give up thier ace pitcher in thier prime. he knows they will have to come from our farm system.
Minor League pitchers who aren't mentioned because they are not starters but who can help in the future:
AAA
Franquelis Osoria with a nice 25/6 ratio
AA
Eric Stults 45/9 ratio
A
Hong-Chih Kuo - just starting to pitch again after missing 3 years to injury. Only pitching out of the bullpen right now.
My favorite unheralded pitcher
Carlos Alvarez with a 38/9 ratio in 25 innings.
Orenduff has been completely dominating but he was a College draftee and is 22 in a league populated with 20 and 21 year olds so we need to see what he does in AA before we get to excited.
We weren't willing to pay 11 million for a 3b who only had one above average year. Eric Chavez has been above average since he joined the league and each year his numbers have gotten better. It is doubtfull that all of the sudden he has lost it but is just going through a tough time dealing with being the only player left on the A's who can hit.
Randy Johnson/Schilling/Hudson/Mulder should I go on about how many Ace's are traded. The A's got lucky developing 3 aces, at the same time. I'd much rather trade a pitching prospect for an established pitcher any day of the week. Just look at the deals this winter. They got the number one pitching prospect from the the Braves in Dan Meyer for Hudson. He sucks right now. His pedigree was every bit as high as any of our prospects. Billingsly might turn out to be the next Curt Schilling but if you look at Mr. Schilling's career you will see a pitcher who really wasn't that usefull until he'd pitched a number of seasons. Many great pitchers took time to become what they became. The Doc Gooden's of the world are frickin rare birds and to expect our high school studs to become usefull pitchers in the rotation until they are 22/23/24 is fantasy.
i guess we just have different viewpoints on pitching prospects.
Randy Johnson - forced his way to NY.
Schilling - left Arizona because they were rebuilding
Hudson/Mulder - Beane was trying to get value for these guys before he lost them for draft picks.
It's not that aces don't get traded, but there has to be a good reason for them to be traded. Can you think of anyone (realistically) who may be traded this year? Like a big contract on a lousy team? Or a GM that is going to lose a guy and wants to get a little something back?
if so, hes the type of player i am willing to give up prospects for.
#151: Absolutely agree.
If Oswalt ends up on the trading block, then I agree as well.
That said, Zito (in relation to other posts) isn't an ace type of pitcher. He may have been and he may still regain his past glory, but banking on him to do so is just like hoping the prospects we already have turn into good pitchers at some point.
I'm very excited about Osoria, considering he's already on the 40-man roster, and there's a pitcher with the last name Erickson who I would gladly have him replace. Also, so far, Osoria has defied the odds to pitch very well in Las Vegas.
As far as Stults, I didn't list him, but I should have. All of Stults' innings have come as a starter this year. He's a 25 year old LHP in Jacksonville who looks like he's finally putting it all together. He was drafted in the 15th round of the 2002 draft out of college. Because of his age, he may see some playing time in the majors this year. Also due to his age, he's not likely to make any top prospect lists. Nonetheless, he's got a lower ERA than Billingsley at 3.30 and I really like all his peripherals (5.0 K/BB, 7.83 K/9, .7 HR/9, and 9.22 H/9).
And you know what happens to these types of pitchers...they pitch 15 more years and win 3 cy youngs.
d'oh!
loney was to right field on a sweet sweet swing. martin was to right field, same area where loney's landed.
guzman is also at 3b for this game.
5IP 3H 1ER 0BB 11K
As was mentioned in previous posts, if given the opportunity to trade a Grade A pitching prospect for an established top of the rotation pitcher, take it. How nice would it be now if Beane and DePo had pulled the trigger on the Hudson-for-Jackson (and others) deal that was rumored this past winter?
As much as I love Zito and that big curve, and as much as I think he's still got plenty of good years in him, I don't think he's a good fit for the Dodgers. Right now we've got sinkerballers that can't keep the ball in the park. Imagine the problems a fly ball pitcher would have.
I agree we can't throw them to the wolves, but part of me gets aggravated when we have guys like Alvarez and Erickson eating up starts that we could use to give guys like Thompson, prospects, Houlton, etc, an opportunity.
I guess I'd like to see a happy medium somehow. Anyway, here's hoping we'll get back over .500!
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