Random Dodger game callback

June 16, 1939

Before a crowd of 1,293 at Sportsman's Park in St. Louis, the Brooklyn
Dodgers spotted the Cardinals seven runs early and couldn't come all
the way back and lost 7-6. The loss dropped the Dodgers into fourth
place, 8 games behind leader Cincinnati and gave them a 25-24 record.

The Cardinals used a five-run sixth to take a 7-0 lead. Joe Medwick
and Don Padgett both slammed home runs off of Dodger starter Van
Lingle Mungo to knock him out of the box. Reliever Fred Fitzsimmons
gave up another run.

The Dodgers rallied against Cardinal starter Lon Warneke with single
runs in the seventh and eighth and then pushed across four against
reliever Curt Davis, but pinch hitter Lyn Lary struck out with the
tying run on second to end the game.

The big change for the Dodgers in 1939 was the installation of Leo
Durocher as player manager. Durocher replaced Burleigh Grimes as
manager after a disappointing 1938 season (when the Dodgers employed
Babe Ruth as a coach) and turned the team around after six straight
losing seasons. The 1939 team finished 84-69, which put them in third
place, 14 ½ games behind Cincinnati. It was the Dodgers best finish
since 1932.

First baseman Dolph Camilli was the hitting hero in Brooklyn in 1939.
Camilli slugged 26 home runs and drove in 104. He also led the NL in
walks (110) and strikeouts (107), an unusual combo in that era.

In midseason, the Dodgers picked up Tigers outfielder Dixie Walker on
waivers, who would be a standout hitter for the Dodgers through the
1947 season.

Brooklyn received a career year from lefthander Luke Hamlin, who won
20 games (against 13 losses) with a 3.64 ERA. Hamlin never won more
than 9 games in a season after 1939. Hugh Casey, would become one of
the Dodgers first relief stars, bounced between the bullpen and the
starting rotation and sported a 15-10 record with a 2.93 ERA.

The 1939 Dodgers also had one player who was a former star elsewhere
in New York, but soon headed for retirement. Tony Lazzeri, who played
for the Yankees for 12 seasons, played in 14 games for the 1939
Dodgers early in the season, before being released in May and moving
on to the Giants and eventually retirement. Lazzeri passed away
unexpectedly in 1946. The last member of the 1939 Dodgers to pass away
was catcher Ray Hayworth, who died on September 25, 2002 at the age of
98.

1939 would be Durocher's last year as a regular player. Normally a
weak hitter, Durocher batted .277, his second best mark for his
career. Durocher batted .247 in his career and hit just 24 home runs.
Durocher would eventually win 3 penannts as a manager, although only
one would come in Brooklyn. But with Durocher in charge, the Dodgers
went from being a bad joke to becoming a powerhouse in the National
League.

1939 was another momentous year for the mercurial Larry McPhail as he ran
the Dodgers. He took over right at the beginning of the 1938
season. McPhail was an aggressive promoter of the Dodgers. He hired
Red Barber away from Cincinnati to become the team's radio announcer
and also arranged for a game on August 26 to be televised from Ebbets
Field.

McPhail and Durocher would have a tempestuous relationship in which McPhail would "fire" Durocher many times (usually while drunk) only to rehire him in the morning. Durocher's tenure with the Dodgers would outlast McPhail's.

Thanks to the NY Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet

Besides, everyone else is wrapped up in the thrilling NBA Finals. Three straight nail-biters!

Drew should have bunted those guys over.

It's the only sports team we have out here.

How far was Choi's fly?

I think losing two games to the Giants in 1997 including the Brian (evil Stanford guy) Johnson walkoff homer was pretty bad.

The 1969 Dodgers were in contention in the NL West and got swept in a 4-game series in San Diego in September by a team that lost 110 games.

Twins are up 4-0.

Not that our second level guys are winning games, but they're at least above average in different aspects of the game. Repko will be a heck of a defensive replacement and pinch runner, Edwards and Ledee will solidify our hitting off the bench. Should be the case for the next few years as well.

Would anyone mind if we got a solid #3 starter for Izturis, or packaged him for Dunn, plugged Perez at SS, and platooned Valentin and Saenz at 3rd?

he just got demoted to jacksonville.

Way to go Grabs. 4th of the year.

3-2 Blue.

I haven't been into Waikiki for years, mostly because of parking shortages. There's plenty else to see on Oahu, though.

Anybody headed over here, gimme a call; we'll go watch a Dodgers game on the tube somewhere.

Is the scoreboard graphic new? Or am I just imagining things?

And in Minnesota, the umpires just made the Giants third base coach, Gene Glynn, stand in the coaching box.

"Zack, you know you're supposed to be home when the streetlights come on!"

"But ma, I'm pitchin'"

if it's already put into play, then how could his OBP be 20 points higher than his batting average?

Which meant that maybe Derek Lowe could give us a decent start. But no.

To add insult to injury, I just realized Sweeney is on the bench.

On the other hand, Jason Grabowski is making an excellent argument for me to shut my damn mouth regarding his abilities, or alleged lack of same.

And I'd hazard to say that over the course of his contract, Clement will be a much more dominant pitcher than Lowe.

"You give extra outs to that other team, and they'll make you pay for it. Yadda, yadda, yadda"

Never mind that the other team is the Kansas City Royals, or that a guy making $9 million a year ought give up slightly fewer runners than DJ Houlton.

That staff surrendered over 1000 runs.

But pretty much everybody did that year.

I've got cleaner for that!

And those of you thinking about the basketball game, that game sucks too.

The 1958 Dodgers were 4.47. I believe that's the LA high.

- being forced to listen to the upcoming XM all David Hasselhoff station
- watching a beauty pageant featuring Imelda Marcos
- watching a beauty pageant featuring John Kruk
- haggis

2003: 72:110
2004: 71:105
2005: 17:65

One of those numbers is not like the other, one of those numbers isn't the same...

Besides, I fly airlines other than Qantas!

--Nora Ephron movies
--Cable companies
--Con Law professors who oppose the judicial filibuster when Clinton is President, but support it when Bush is President
--Reality Television

I was going to do a post over at my place which was a list of my favorite Dodgers in order. I hate this team so much, I think Jason Grabowski is in the Top 10 of my favorite Dodgers, ahead of at least every pitcher on the staff.

Soon Erickson will take on mythic significance and occupy a high place in the pantheon of hated Dodgers.

Can you have a pantheon of people you hate?

- Drivers who don't use their turn signals.
- Running out of juice while talking on the cellphone.
- Dorothy Lucey.
- 404 errors.

Smokejumper

Dammit, Erickson, you're supposed to fail gracelessly and make the difference 192-3 so you can be fired.

Lynch 'im, boys. It's time.

no he is man crushing on Ichiro.

But then Tracy will be on to talking about how excited he is that Elmer Dessens is back.

Regardless of who is playing and the cirumstances, that's got to be an ugly game to watch.

They are a total embarassment to all of loyal fans that hang on their every game.

I bet we take it harder than they do (no pun intended).

Oh yeah, I too hate this "team"

Notwithstanding the monster performance this weekend, I would prefer to see Choi a little more consistent instead of vacillating between white hot and ice cold.

"It's a real shame our starting pitcher had to absorb that, because he made nothing but quality pitches to get us out of the inning."

Yeah, that was the idea.

Third Starter (Odalis Perez)
Closer (Eric Gagne)
Primary Swing-man (Wilson Alvarez)
Centerfielder (Milton Bradley)
Shortstop (Cesar Izturis)
Primary Thirdbaseman (Jose Valentin)
Fourth Outfielder (Ricky Ledee)
Backup Catcher (Paul Bako)

This stinks.

"I hope every saw Cordero's Fall Down Pitch. Tripped in the middle of his delivery, threw the ball straight down. It bounced five feet in front of the MOUND. Not five feet in front of the plate, but the mound, and bounced about 45 feet STRAIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE PLATE.

Question for your guys (because Justice wasn't sure either): If Guerrero had hit that one-hop cricket-style pitch over the fence for a two-run homer, would the Angels have won, 2-1. What's the rule on a bounced pitch? I assume it's a legit pitch. But I've never seen anybodyt hit one in play. Thanks for an answer."

ex. With 2 strikes, and a pitcher uncorks one of those Nuke Laloosh, pitch at the mascot's head pitches. Couldnt' the batter have a feeble hack at it, and then jog to first base on a mishandled swinging 3rd strike?

Steve -- just want to say that skimming comments this morning I saw your potential openness to rethinking on Grabowski (something about shutting your damn mouth . . . ). Very impressed by that -- for a hard hitting no-holds-barred critic-type, I've never doubted that you want the Dodgers to win, want those who frustrate you to do better, and are happy to acknowledge it when they do. Distinguishes you from a lot of others who would raise the "Fire [whoever]" banner and charge into battle.

Injuries have nothing to do with "professional hitter" Saenz twice leaving the bases loaded, A. Perez making an error, or Lowe unable to get over that error.

Plus, the rest of the team is so depressing, any little glimmer of hope will do. By the way, where did Wunsch go?

And finally, if you haven't had enough good news today:

"Derek Thompson has some elbow tenderness," Tracy said. "So he's obviously not the choice to pitch on Saturday."

So one more person goes on the list ahead of Scott Erickson.

I shudder to think where this team would be if we hadn't picked up Bradley, Werth and Grabowski in what seemed like two weeks in March '04. They have helped bridge what would have otherwise been a serious gap between established major leaguers and the rising group in Jacksonville. The damage wrought by Kevin Malone's administration still hurts us now.

Nonetheless, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, the Dodgers woke up this morning in a pennant race, and the Royals's season is still ugly.

Now, on tonight. Everyone ready for DJ "stopper" Houlton v. Mark Buehrle?

Padres:

Second basemad (Mark Loretta)
Fifth starter / waiver material (Tim Redding)
Fourth outfielder (Freddy Guzman)
Backup infielder (Eric Young)
Anonymous reliever (Miguel Ascencio)

Diamondbacks:

Closer (Brandon Lyon)
LOOGY (Oscar Villareal)
Fourth outfielder (Luis Terrero)
Backup infielder (Jerry Gil)

Small sample sizes and all, Grabowski hits better as a regular (obviously, since his pinch hitting stats really test the definition of "hitting"). Send him to a team that needs a little lefty balance out of the DH slot.

Rule 2.00 - Definitions

A BALL is a pitch which does not enter the strike zone in flight and is not struck at by the batter. If the pitch touches the ground and bounces through the strike zone it is a "ball." If such a pitch touches the batter, he shall be awarded first base. If the batter swings at such a pitch after two strikes, the ball cannot be caught, for the purposes of Rule 6.05 (c) and 6.09 (b). If the batter hits such a pitch, the ensuing action shall be the same as if he hit the ball in flight.

(Emphasis mine)

Like I said before, the fact that players are on the DL doesn't excuse the poor performance by guys like Saenz, and Lowe last night. There's a reason that guys like Saenz, Edwards, Grabowski,Carrara,Carlysle, and Rose spent years in the minors, with limited shots at the big leagues.

While one or two may prove to be "diamonds in the rough", you can't stock your roster full of these guys and give them considerable playing time without consequences.

"If the batter swings at such a pitch after two strikes, the ball cannot be caught, for the purposes of Rule 6.05 (c) and 6.09 (b)." Does it mean that the out must be made at first even if the catcher "catches" the ball?

Somebody sometime ago (I think, could just be my own thought) mentioned that moving to Las Vegas was a bad move because it inflated hitters' stats and deflated pitchers' confidence. Would it be difficult to move out or get a new AAA stadium? I don't know if this is a good idea or not, but perhaps something similar to Dodger Stadium. Something that kills doubles and triples but is good for home runs. Perhaps it would give the front office better predictive information about players.

I was just thinking about how most of our minor league depth is just coming up and wondering how people would do in AAA. It seems like a lot of pitchers may be better off spending as little time in AAA as possible. Going from AA to the bigs seems like a big jump.

Anyway, just random thoughts while sitting here at work on a Friday.

Rotation
Penny
Lowe
Perez
Weaver
Houlton / Thompson / Dessens / Alvarez

Closer
Gagne

When 7 players of those 15 spots are on the DL or day to day, and you also have your 4th OFer and backup catcher hurt, guys like Edwards, Grabowski, Rose, and A. Perez HAVE to see time. Nobody is using the DL as an excuse for lastnight, but in the long run it is killing us.

30-year fixed - 5.20% with a 5.36% APR
15-year fixed - 4.82% and 5.07%
5-year adjustable - 4.61% and 5.61%

But,it's dicey to project that players in decline like Alvarez or Valentin would have performed at a high level, but for their injuries, or that Dessens is anything more than he is, an average swingman.

If you stock your team with guys like Mike Edwards, you have to live with the fact that he has no range at 3B , despite his offensive ability, when your starting pitchers give up a lot of groundballs.

Bottom line- IF Werth is your future in LF, you don't give his at bats to Repko or Grabowski.

Bottom, Bottom line- DePo needs to deal to get this team going.

Padres Total DL time = 210+ days (6 stints)
Pitchers:
Woody Williams - 32 days (1 stint)
Tim Redding - 40+ days (1 stint)
Hitters:
Mark Loretta - 25+ days (1 stint)
Khalil Greene - 23 days (1 stint)
Dave Roberts - 15 days (1 stint)
Geoff Blum - 18 days (1 stint)
Freddy Guzman - 75+ days (1 stint)

Dodgers Total DL Time = 467+ days (15 stints)
Pitchers:
Brad Penny - 19 days (1 stint)
Odalis Perez - 34+ days (1 stint)
Eric Gagne - 43+ days (2 stints)
Wilson Alvarez - 46+ days (2 stints)
Elmer Dessens - 52 days (1 stint)
Darren Dreifort - 75+ days (1 stint)
Hitters:
Milton Bradley - 19+ days (1 stint)
Jose Valentin - 45+ days (1 stint)
Jayson Werth - 41 days (1 stint)
Antonio Perez - 38 days (1 stint)
Ricky Ledee - 13+ days (1 stint)
Jason Grabowski - 21 days (1 stint)
Paul Bako - 21+ days (1 stint)

Padres DL Time = 135 days
Dodgers DL Time = 392 days
Dodgers DL Time = 290% Padres DL Time

I realize that straight DL time is not an accurate metric. What would be most accurate is to do estimated VORP lost, but I haven't gotten there yet. Though, I think it's pretty apparent, even without the calculation that the Dodgers would be significantly winning that DL-battle as well.

I was just gonna say "somebody should multiply the days lost with the player's VORP to get some VORP lost" or something. Of course you'd have to subtract it the VORP the replacements gave to get the "delta VORP."

You're not even including Weaver's "Dead arm" period or Wilson's never should have come off the DL in the first place period.

See post #249.

See #232:
Nobody is using the DL as an excuse for lastnight, but in the long run it is killing us.

Except change last night to the last 3 games.

I posed this previously but didn't get the stimulating dialogue I was looking for - is there a more desired player in the bigs (or in the minors for that matter) than Adam Dunn, according to what we know about Paul Depodesta?

Wash, rinse, repeat. Wash, rinse, repeat. Wash, rinse...

Also take note of our VORP discussions to see how much "value" we've actually been missing.

#254,
No, I don't think there's anybody that fits the mold as well as Dunn. Though Dunn's defense isn't that great, but it's probably not that big a deal in LF.

Are the Reds really willing to part with him? How much would we have to give up? I don't know much about the Reds so I don't know their needs or wants.

Would he want to come to LA and stay in LA? No point in getting him as just a hired gun.

For each player, the format is the estimated number of games missed * the estimated VORP rate / game = the total VORP lost. For the estimated number of games missed, I took an educated guess based on the total number of games missed (i.e. starting pitchers / long relievers = games / 5, closer = games / 2, etc.). For the VORP rate, I used a weighted average of Baseball Prospectus projections (3x) and current VORP rate (1x), unless there wasn't enough data from this season (Dessens and Young), in which cased I just used the BP projection. Any VORP rates that turned out negative (Redding and Blum) I rounded up to 0. If anyone would like to suggest a better method, please do; it would be easy to recalculate. Here are the results:

Brad Penny: 3 * 0.788 = 2.364
Odalis Perez: 5 * 0.848 = 4.24
Eric Gagne: 19 * 0.429 = 8.151
Wilson Alvarez: 8 * 0.628 = 5.024
Elmer Dessens: 9 * 0.336 = 3.024
Darren Dreifort: 0 * 0 = 0
Dodgers Pitchers = 22.803
Milton Bradley: 17 * 0.229 = 3.893
Jose Valentin: 26 * 0.176 = 4.576
Jayson Werth: 30 * 0.148 = 4.44
Antonio Perez: 17 * 0.31 = 5.27
Ricky Ledee: 4 * 0.155 = 0.62
Jason Grabowski: 3 * 0.079 = 0.237
Paul Bako: 4 * 0.015 = 0.06
Dodgers Hitters = 19.096
Dodgers Total = 41.889

Woody Williams: 6 * 0.719 = 4.314
Tim Redding: 6 * 0 = 0
Padres Pitchers = 4.314
Mark Loretta: 25 * 0.264 = 6.6
Khalil Greene: 21 * 0.23 = 4.83
Dave Roberts: 9 * 0.145 = 1.305
Geoff Blum: 3 * 0 = 0
Eric Young: 12 * 0.117 = 1.404
Freddy Guzman: 4 * 0.052 = 0.208
Padres Hitters = 14.347
Padres Total = 18.661

The conclusion is that the Dodgers injuries have cost them about 2.5 wins (1 win = 10 runs) more than the Padres injuries. Coincindentally (or not), that is also the current difference in the standings.

If you got nothing better to do, wouldn't hurt to find out both our and the Padre's net loss (the "delta VORP"). Only if you have nothing better to do though.

The only suggestion I might make, since VORP is a positionally-adjusted statistic, is to use MLVr instead of VORP rate, to get a real lineup value instead of a positionally-adjusted one for a real apples-to-apples comparison.

The current one isn't so far off that it's apples-to-oranges (maybe apples-to-pears is more accurate), but I'd be curious to see the MLVr equivalent.

Dodgers MLV lost: 0.11
Padres MLV lost: -.85

I'm not sure what this means though. It certainly underestimates the impact of losing players on the right end of the defensive spectrum.

not that I really object, but if tracy wasn't so lineup match up happy stats like this would be easier to do :)

MLVr is basically the number of marginal runs a player adds or subtracts per game without respect to their positional baselines. For example, Jeff Kent's MLVr wouldn't change if he moved to RF, but his VORP rate would decrease because RF has a higher positional baseline than 2B.

But you're right about the defensive spectrum; unfortunately, neither VORP or MLV take defense into account, so a totally separate analysis would be needed to figure that out anyway.

Maybe I'll do a MLVr x Games analysis like yours and post in the other thread since you've done so much work already.

Milton Bradley: 17 * 0.106 = 1.802
Jose Valentin: 26 * -0.057 = -1.482
Jayson Werth: 30 * 0.014 = 0.42
Antonio Perez: 17 * 0.032 = 0.544
Ricky Ledee: 4 * -0.036 = -0.144
Jason Grabowski: 3 * -0.076 = -0.228
Paul Bako: 4 * -0.201 = -0.804
Dodgers Hitters = 0.108

Mark Loretta: 25 * 0.065 = 1.625
Khalil Greene: 21 * -0.002 = -0.042
Dave Roberts: 9 * -0.029 = -0.261
Geoff Blum: 3 * -0.169 = -0.507
Eric Young: 12 * -0.079 = -0.948
Freddy Guzman: 4 * -0.178 = -0.712
Padres Hitters = -0.845

These three numbers are the weighted (50/50) MLVr of our injured hitters vs Padre injured hitters, "worst" case, and "best" case, using 2005 Projections against actual 2005 results.

LA 0.314 7.312 -4.45

SD -1.1895 1.006 -4.045

As hitters go, we've lost between 0 and 6 more runs to injury than the Padres have at the plate.

There's nothing really notable here, except to back up the theory that injured pitchers have hurt the Dodgers far more, at least in Spreadsheetville, than our injured hitters. I think we could have grasped that intuitively, but Fearing's work helps prove the idea that pitching injuries are the biggest reason we trail SD right now.

However, the "10 runs = 1 win" applies to a whole season's worth of baseball and we're yet to the halfway point. At this stage, it can be argued that because of pro-rating, 4-5 runs = 1 win. As such, a net loss of 25 runs could be used to explain more than 2.5 games of difference in the standings.