It would appear that our boy is back.

Sorry for reposting this but I'm just so gosh-darned proud of it...

Am I blue?
Over Drew?
Ain't these tears in these eyes telling you
Am I blue?
You'd be too
if your entire team had boo-boos

There was a time we had the OPS one
But now we're the sad and lonely ones
lonely

We were gay
to make trades
but we're sellers now, not buyers
'Cuz we're through

sigh.

It is time to Let Go and really test what our prospects are worth both by being called up and by being traded. This will be a painful process and not everyone will succeed. But this would seem to be the time to go for it. It has always been difficult to make determinations about very young players: Guzman, La Roche, Abyar I think is also not yet ready. However, what about a guy like Henry Stanley, if he is worth something now seems the time to bring him up. Is this the year that we finally give Chen Fin Feng a full time shot?....On a practical note Adam Dunn is on a pace to strike out close to 170 times is this what we want for 35 homers? And if the Dodgers were holding off on surgery for Milton Bradley on the basis of the potential of this season, that course now should be changed.

What happened to Kuo?

Does Kent have a no-trade clause? Even if we sell and Kent is our most valuable commodity, I keep him.

"On a practical note Adam Dunn is on a pace to strike out close to 170 times is this what we want for 35 homers?"

in a word, yes.

DePodesta said.

``This has been pretty remarkable. I don't think you could find anyone in this room who's ever seen anything like this, but those are the cards we've been dealt, so we've got to do something with it. We have an awful lot of prospects who I feel would be good trade chips, so we'll see.''

5 - Kuo apparently blew his arm out last night or very recently. His career is apparently over. See last nights posts.

i would wait until he has seen a doctor before we pronounce the kid's career over.

9 - As would I. I'm embarassed to say I'd never heard of him until last night--I was too busy posting fifty times an hour.

So, I'm trying to get a handle on the concept of being sellers. What exactly does this mean? I seem to understand that if you are a buyer, you give up some prospects for a key veteran or two. But how does selling work? What do we want in return? More prospects doesn't seem to make sense, since we are loaded with those. So we trade our position players for someone else's? Is it just trying to hoodwink some GM into giving us better position players/pitchers than we have?
Perhaps Fearing Blue can explain it to me.

I don't care what anyone says, we are not throwing in the towel for 2005.

Don't think the Padres or D-Smacks are anything special. At the very best, these teams play .500 ball the rest of the season.

The division is still ours to take.

11 - I really would focus less on the idea of being "sellers" and more about the idea of what you're buying. It's the difference between being 2005-focused in your purchased vs. being focused on 2006 and beyond.

11 - part two - I see Fearing Blue has made enough of an impression that he's the one you turn to for explanation, instead of your intrepid host :)

11 - Well, I'm not nearly as well-researched as Fearing, Bob or our dear host. In fact, I'm only a little more skilled in research than the average sportswriter. But I make up for it by being ADD so here goes.

The idea behind being a seller, as I'm sure you know, is to build toward next season and the seasons to come. A guy like Weaver and Perez, if they're pitching well, would be attractive to a team in need of (ahem) pitching depth. Realistically, they might bring prospects but that's about it.

More intriguing is what the Dodgers could bring with the prospects they have. The outstanding example is the Milton Bradley trade; give up Guttierez for a guy who can play right now. Plus, Bradley is affordable. A guy like Dunn, with I think has one more year of arbitration eligibility, is a pretty good deal for some of those prospects.

DePo is all about value and odd as it may seem, many GM's don't really pay attention to that. Deep down, DePo has to be hurting because this season is all but done. But deeper down--and I think this is at least a sub-theme of Jon's post--DePo is relishing the opportunity to build this team for the future.

With Drew's injury, the Dodgers currently have over 45 million dollars being paid to either disabled or traded players. Ouch.

12 - Why would you possibly care about winning the weakest division in baseball and getting crushed in the first round, when the alternative is to come in third or fourth, and potentially get to the NLCS next year?

Re: 9

Fair enough, but when a pitcher with two Tommy Johns hears a "pop" in his elbow, it's fair to say that a natural assumption would be that something very, very bad has happened.

That being said, my impression has been that Kuo has had lots of problems with scar tissue in his elbow. Hopefully the pop came from that, and not from an actual ligament.

Re: 11

Well, I suppose what exactly being a seller means depends on what situation we're in. I think Fearing had a pretty good list of stuff to look for in yesterday's game thread:

"My feeling has been that in the next offseason the three primary goals will be A) a good starting pitcher for 1 - 2 years, B) a young, left-handed, slugging fourth outfielder for 2 - 3 years, and C) a third baseman / utility infielder for 1 year. If we can fill either of the first two now, I would go for it, even if it means giving up major league talent in return (Izturis, Saenz, Brazoban, Weaver, and Saenz are possibilities)." (Post 241)

At this point, I would rather give up big-league talent than prospects. And I would take Brazoban off the trade list with Gagne's status for next season uncertain. I think Izturis, Saenz, and Weaver could all potentially be good chips right now. If we give up Izzy, we'd need a stopgap SS next season, though, since I think its unreasonable to expect Guzman to be ready next season. I think Terry Collins has maintained that Guzman could play SS in the bigs, and at this point, I'd rather him do that than make a switch to the OF.

WWSH

Re: 15

We're all making the assumption that DePo really is going to realize that making a big trade to salvage this season is rather pointless. He's shown that he can trade one-step ahead--that was a strength of last year's deal, which had both short and long-term implications in mind--but DePo's really been beaten up in the media, and I wonder if he and ownership feel a lot of pressure to be at least seen as not throwing the towel in this season. DePo can and has defied public opinion, but there may be limits to his intestinal fortitude--the same goes with McCourt.

WWSH

Sorry Jon, didn't mean any disrespect :)

And actually your response in #13 was the most succinct. I hadn't really thought of the difference between getting players for this year and getting them for next year. I guess that means that if we are buying for next year now rather than in the off-season, we try to give up vets rather than prospects. Or at least fewer prospects.

17-You play the game of baseball to win. I don't care if we get swept out the first round. You play to win your division.

What makes you think that packing it in is going to necessarily win us the NLCS??

I believe winning the division this year, and getting smashed in the playoffs will ultimately help our team more next year and beyond.

This team is not a bunch of quitters.

20 - Oh, so you wanted clarity and succinctness! Now you tell me!

The less I hear about Adam Dunn, the better. He is a one tool player, who is fat and happy. Just like his buddy Austin Kearns, who was so fat he got sent down to AAA. Give me someone with tools and with an attitude, like MB anyday. Hopefully Depo will look at Dunn's stats, and what he going to be asking for, and say No.

SB, I wasn't around to watch and post yesterday, but looking at the posts I notice you got your dog. Congratulations. You should get a lot of enjoyment. Though mine were driving my nuts. There were squirrels in my peach trees and that drives the dogs insane.

I should have told Dan Evans when I ran into him yesterday in Pasadena that none of this would have happened had they kept him on the job. DePodesta acts incredulous that this is a total surprise to him. Really? Like Jon said, look at the games played column. Many of us were predicting that this outfield would miss an enormous amount of games. Lo and behold, it has. Looking at the injury history of players I think a lot of the Dodger acquisitions were obviously going to run into trouble this season:

J.D. Drew -- huge injury risk
Milton Bradley -- decent injury risk
Odalis Perez -- TJ surgery, shoulder problems
Jayson Werth -- bad knees, broken ribs, muscle issues
Brad Penny -- litany of issues before we got him.
Wilson Alvarez -- huge history of shoulder problems.

And yet DePodesta signed them all. Talk about a risk. Ledee, Dessens, Valentin, and to a lesser extent Gagne are all bad luck, but the list above shows in my mind a complete lack of research on the part of the front office in the area of injuries. And it has been a consistent thing with them. One could make an argument that Gagne should be a risk as well because he is so hard throwing. Right now I think DePo deserves to be criticized, but only for the right reasons not his use of statistics.

At this point I think we should have kept Green instead of Drew. Over the total term of the contract we will get more value. Giving this much money to a brittle player is a huge error.

21 - You are, of course, literally right. You do play the game to win and a team should never quit.

But.

We have lost our best pitcher, all three of our outfielders including arguably our best player, our all-star shortstop is gimpy and our starting pitching hasn't been altogether healthy in many a moon. The 2005 Dodgers are already five games under .500, 6.5 back and we are frankly running out of bullets. Sometimes the best strategy for a season is making sure that the gun has enough bullets to fight another day.

24 - Thanks for the kind comments and all the feedback from weeks gone by. If the Dodgers went for baseballs like our dogs go for squirrels, our defensive woes would be over very quickly.

Those who say we ought to keep all or most of our prospects need to focus on the fact that we have more than we can protect in the Rule 5 draft. The major league players we have now are mostly not very attractive to the teams that need help. One possibility is to trade O Perez (when he shows he's healthy) and some other pitching and bring up Thompson and see if he's ready. He certainly looked good.

27-- I'm inclined to agree with jockstrap but for different reasons. As a supposedly big budget team, to me the point of being a seller at deadline time is to save money. I thought we didn't have to save money, that we are a wealthy team. Wouldn't it behoove us to just not buy and hope there are less injuries in 2006?

27-You make it sound like 6.5 games back is too steep a hill to climb.

Take a look at our crappy division. With the plethora of injuries this year, we still have as much a chance as San Diego and Arizona at winning the division.

What makes you think that making a couple deals at the deadline is suddenly going to mortgage our future?

We are are still playing to win the division THIS YEAR!

30-We are the Los Angeles Dodgers, we are a BIG MARKET TEAM. We play to win every year. We are not the A's or other small market teams that "sell" because of financial limitations.

Dodger revenues are skyrocketing. We average 45,000 fans every home game. That is astounding.

We are a BIG MARKET TEAM, and we will be buyers at the deadline.

#25 - I'm definetly a believer that some players have body-types that lend themselves to getting hurt more than others, but even using that is hard to explain some of those injuries. Drew and Werth got hit by pitches. Bradley's prior problems were with his legs. Penny had a history, and he's actually been healthy since he came back; and we all knew he wouldn't be starting the year on time. Alvarez was a risk, but for the cost, I'm not willing to say that re-signing him was a mistake. Perez was a risk that hasn't worked out so far, and his injury actually relates to his prior problems. For Gagne, I'm blaming the Dodgers for that one. They never should have allowed him to pitch with his knee injury.

I think this means that is we make trades, it certainly won't be for players who would only be here for this season. Although I can't imagine Depo was looking for a 3-month solution anyways. This only drives home the fact that anyone he trades for would have to be a year or two from free agency. For example, both Dunn and Kearns make as much sense today as they did yesterday, because they'll be around in the future.

I'm still in favor of a trade for Dunn. I think he's good enough to help keep us in contention this season, assuming at least a couple other players come back. I'm not willing to admit that San Diego is a great team, and I think that we could still catch them with a little luck. Perez will be back soon, and with him, our rotation will finally be as good as it should be. Alavarez will also be back soon. As a side benefit, I've got to believe that Erickson will be gone once both of them are. Who else would it be, other than Osorio and Erickson?

I'm certainly not expecting to be in the playoffs, but it's still possible. And getting an Adam Dunn woujld increase those chances. And if we did make the playoffs, it's possible that both Bradley and Drew would be back in time.

Last point, with this injury to Drew, is there any reason, ANY REASON, not to be starting Choi every single day? I'm ready to punt defense at 3B and play Choi and Saenz as much as possible, with Perez playing SS until Izturis comes back (hopefully some time around December). We just can't afford to be sitting the guy who is now our 2nd best hitter.

I think there are ways to win this season while also better preparing us for our future.

A few moves I see that would benefit us this year would be Randy Winn from the M's who shouldnt cost much considering they offered him to the Stro's for Brandon Backe and a couple Cincy players in Adam Dunn and Sean Casey. While we give up some prospects (we can't keep them all because we risk losing them in the Rule 5 next year) we gain leadership in Casey a good CF in Randy Winn and Adam Dunn.

We could also be sellers and get major league players/parts by seeing what we can get for Antonio Perez, Jason Phillips, Elmer Dessens, Jeff Weaver, Duaner Sanchez, and Olmedo Saenz.

#29 - thanks for brining that up. Not nearly enough people recognize or understand that fact. While we don't have to trade our top prospects, we're better off trade some of them now, rather than lose them for nothing.

I'll say it again...trade Laroche now, while his value is as high as it's ever going to be.

33--Which is more likely, J.D. Drew and Jayson Werth getting hit in the wrist and missing a couple months, or Craig Biggio and David Eckstein getting hit in the wrist and laughing it off. To give 55 million dollars over five years to a guy who has played over 135 games once is not smart. Players get hit in the wrist all the time, just ask Antonio Perez last night. Only a few of them suffer broken wrists because of it. And when Drew comes back, he'll undoubtedly have a loss of power because of it. DePo made an error buying this guy because of a myopic use of statistical analysis. Instead of looking at the games played he looked at the on base percentage.

Winning the division and getting crushed in the first round would be worth quite a bit if only for the extra home games. The trouble is, this year seems to be more of a seller's market. If that holds through the deadline and the Dodgers are still this far behind, it would make sense to focus on 2006.

But if it's possible to get help now at a good price, I don't see why not. There ought to be plenty of room in the budget. I don't see how DePodesta's critics are going to be placated by throwing in the towel for 2005.

I refuse to believe that Drew's knee problems should have made us suspicious of his ability to deal with getting hit in the wrist with a pitch. If you want to say that about Nick Johnson, who has a history of things of that sort, I'll believe it. But Drew's injury history had nothing to do with brittle bones.

33 see 23
Now let me tell you, Sean Casey is the heart of the Reds. Great bat. Good defense. Not a slugger. But #34, you're so right about the leadership qualities. All for that one. Why is there no more Ensberg 3B talk - .588 SLG and .973 OBS and 65 K's. Dunn is at .558/.946 along with 85 K's.

30 - To not buy is to give up on 2005 and, to some extent, 2006. This team was pretty good, not great, on paper in April. It could be improved. I know this is nothing you haven't already written about and I take your larger point that this team doesn't really need to "save money" in order to build for the future. A trade like the one that brought Bradley did not save money but certainly boded well for the immediate future.

31 - Again, you're literally correct. 6.5 is not too steep a hill to climb. It all depends on what team your doing it with. Right now, the Dodgers don't have a lot of talent but as you point out, that can be fixed if a couple of deals at the deadline replace what is lost. This is contingent on there being deals to be made and the team keeping pace until such deals get made.

It's likely that DePo will make the kind of deal that pleases both of us--one that helps now and for the future (the Bradley deal).

But trading prospects for a stud whose contract expires this year--a la Houston and Beltran a year ago--would for this team be penny-wise and pound-foolish.

I'll see you at the ballpark and we'll both cheer for a division title. I hope it happens. I think with Drew's injury, combined with all of the other injuries, the odds are long but I'm with you.

#39 I think at this point leadership is more valuable to us that great skills. We have young players at just about every position with 3 years or less of major league service.

Casey can be had and I would love to see him add a spark to our clubhouse of young kids and teach them how to play the game right. Sorry, this is something LoDuca brought and Bradley was bringing but Casey is respected around the league as Milton was still earning the respect.

Spiezio is another name that brings a different aspect to a team as did Kevin Millar to Boston.

rageon--Drew broke his hand in 2001. He does have a history of broken bones.

Re: 29

How much of an issue is the Rule V draft, anyhow? I think I've seen Canuck make the argument that because so few Rule V picks stick with their team, worrying about that too much is unnecessary. Does anyone have thoughts on that merits of that argument? Sure, Santana is a Rule V, but is that an exceptional case? I'm actually asking this question seriously--has anyone ever done a statistical breakdown of how many Rule Vs end up as successful major leaguers with the team that acquired them?

WWSH

Are you serious? Sean Casey? Umm, no.

I saw #23, and it made me laugh.

Actually, given our situation, a guy like Kearns would be perfect. He helps this season, sure, but would be around for a few years into the future.

Dunn, who cares about strikeouts? Doesn't Bonds strike out a lot? There is NOTHING wrong with a hitter striking out a lot. Especially for a guy with 45HR power.

Ensberg -- yeah, I'm sure Houston is just dying to give that guy away. Good luck with that one.

#35: The concerns around the 40-man roster are mostly unfounded this season. The Dodgers have 2 or 3 players at most to be concerned about, but those issues could easily be addressed with off-season maneuvering. The problem with making mid-season trades of prospects for major leaguers is that we'll be competing with clear buyers who will be willing to pay much much more. By making our major-league talent available, we can straddle the buyer / seller line with an eye towards next year.

Jackson, Miller, Loney, and Kuo should not be protected. I think that pretty much solves our Rule V issues.

#43 - someone did a post on it quite a while ago, but I know they had it broken down with essentially what we're left to choose between. Hopefully someone else remembers who did it or when it was.

#42 - you're right, my bad. I just looked it up and yes, he broke his other hand in 2001 after being hit with a pitch.

After looking over the Dodger budget via Hardball Dollars, I am becoming more and more convinced that a mixture of arrogance, and inability to strike deals on the part of DePodesta has wrecked this team. Look at this:

We are paying 10 million dollars to a division rival so that they may pay 6 million dollars for an 800 OPS healthy outfielder with decent pop.

We are paying an injury prone outfielder 33 million dollars over three seasons IF he does not play well for us for two seasons initially.

We are paying a pitcher with an ERA+ of 105 and 90 respectively the last two seasons 36 million over the next four seasons.

#48 - the money saved this season on Green was essentially used to re-sign Perez. Now, you can argue that re-signing him was a bad move because of the injury risk, but given the other options, and the comparible cost, I don't have a problem with giving him a 3 year deal. The Drew signing was a huge risk with a potential huge return. I definetly believe that a healthy Drew could be a top 10 hitter in the game, but I'm not dumb enough to believe that Drew is always going to be healthy either. But we knew that he would miss SOME time, so I'm not going to admit that the deal was bad, based on 80 games of a 5-year contract. Lastly, you can criticize the Lowe signing based on those numbers, but the fact is that he has been pretty good this season.

#43: That's a great point. The Dodgers lost three players in the Rule 5 draft this year (more than any other team):

Shane Victorino - a 24-year old career AAAA type outfielder with 4th outfielder upside.

Matt Merricks - a 22-year old left-hander, who has already been returned to the Dodgers.

Marcos Carvajal - a 21-yeard old, fireballing, right-handed reliever who had only pitched 3 innings above Low-A ball.

Of the bunch, Carvajal is the best prospect, but he wouldn't have cracked the Dodgers top 30 prospects. I expect the situation to be similar next season.

49--What about this, we keep Green, and NOT sign Drew, and NOT sign Perez and bring up Houlton or Thompson for the year. We'd probably be one game up on the standings. And we'd have a smaller budget with the same production and VORP.

#45 - I would be all about trading our major league talent for players for other players who are ready now and are younger, but I'm not sure who we would be trading. Weaver maybe, but who else? A lot of us would trade Izturis, but I just don't see that happening. I guess Brazoban has value, but is another guy that I don't see us trading as long as Gagne is hurt....not that I'm against it though. I just don't see a lot of things getting done with our big league players at this point.

#44: I prefer Kearns over Dunn. He's a much better defensive outfielder, he should come at a more reasonable price, and he would be arbitration-eligible longer.

#44: Whether or not "leadership" is actually the missing piece, I'm pretty confident DePodesta will not be trading for it any time soon. Sean Casey has been performing worse than our current Saenz / Choi platoon.

If we have a chance, and I do not believe we do, we need another outfielder. Hopefully Perez will come back and pitch at the very least league average and not miss anymore starts. We need another Finley-esque performance to win the division.

>> Adam Dunn is on a pace to strike out close to 170 times is this what we want for 35 homers

>>> At this point I think we should have kept Green instead of Drew

NL EQA Leaders
1 D Lee .376
2 Pujols .338
3 Cabrera .336
4 Abreu .330
5 N Johnson .328
6 Delgado .327
7 Drew .325 *
8 Giles .325
9 Bay .323
10 Alou .316
11 Castillo .315
12 Dunn .315 *
13 Ensberg .312
14 Kent .309 *
--------
70 Green .277

#44 NO Bonds does not strike out a lot, he walks a lot

Re: 56

I still support the Green trade, but it should be pointed out that Green's numbers will improve in the second half if he follows his usual pattern. That being said, even with Drew's injury, one also has to factor in Green's very poor OF defense. That, and the salary we saved this year, and whatever potential value Navarro still has as a prospect.

WWSH

Everyone talks about Drew's injury risks, since he only played 135 games in 2002, 100 in 2003, and 145 in 2004. What about the other candidates we could have signed instead?

Carlos Delgado hasn't played 150 games in three years (140 in 2002, 147 in 2003, and 120 in 2004), and that's including games played at DH. He's also 38 years old this season and has had persistent back troubles.

Troy Glaus at 28-years old has only played 149 games combined over the past two years (91 in 2003 and 58 in 2004). He's also coming off of season-ending shoulder surgery.

Adrian Beltre is only 26-years old and has started almost every game the past 3 years (159 in 2002, 158 in 2003, and 156 in 2004). But, he is coming off offseason ankle surgery and has had performance-related injury concerns throughout his career.

Steve Finley has averaged over 150 games the past three years. The downside is that he was coming off a career year at 39-years old and was looking for a two-year contract.

Richie Sexson only played 23 games last year after being extremely healthy the previous three years. His season was cut short by shoulder surgery. At 30 years old, he is also on the wrong side of his career trajectory for health and performance.

Carlos Beltran had the best health history of the 2004-2005 free agent class. He played 162 games in 2002, 141 games in 2003, and 159 games in 2004. Of course, at 28 years old, that's why he signed a 7-year, $119 million contract.

Magglio Ordonez, at 31 years old, has more recent injury concerns than J.D. Drew and signed a larger deal (5 year / $75 million). He has been sidelined this season recovering from last year's knee surgery as well as recovering from this year's hernia operation.

Nomar Garciaparra signed a 1-year deal with the Cubs, which was widely hailed as a great deal for both sides, even considering his recent injury history. Nomar only played 14 games this year before tearing his groin and will be out most of the season.

The two players who were clearly younger and healthier are Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran. We certainly were not going to pay $119 million for 7 years of Beltran, and we got outbid on Beltre. DePodesta said that Beltre was plan A and Drew was plan B, and unfortunately, you don't always get plan A. Based on the other candidates available, I don't know what I would have done differently.

#58: The Green trade was a great trade for DePodesta and the Dodgers. It's easier to see if you split it into two parts:

1) Dropping Shawn Green and his $16 million salary. Green's defense in RF was already below average and declining and his production could be and has been matched at first base.

2) Paying $6 million for a top-tier catching prospect, as well as three mid-tier pitching prospects. Considering that teams pay $3-5 million for draft picks that may or may not pan out, paying $6 million for a guy who is very close to the majors, and has impact potential, is a really good financial decision. Even if Navarro only ends up being a backup catcher (worst case), the amortization of the $6 million over his 6-years under team control will still make him a decent value.

#47: I did the analysis originally. Let me know if you'd like me to repost.

51: It may look like Green and Drew have had similar seasons up to this point and that it would have been cheaper to keep Green. But, you have to realize that almost all of Green's success has come against the Dodgers (6 of his home runs). That, apparently, has been his problem the last couple years...he didn't get to face Dodger pitching (he probably did great in batting practice, though).

#13: Belated thanks Jon. As always, you answered the question more clearly and concisely than I would have.

44 & 53 - Kearns is in AAA because of how much he cared to be successful - he ballooned up to 265 lbs, and couldn't run anymore. He is down in Louisville, and will not be invited back until he loses 30 lbs. Yeah he's hitting the cover off the ball, but do the Dodgers want to babysit? Dunn is his best friend. Spent money, unwisely.

I like where Dodgerkid is going with this. I'll be the first to admit I don't miss seeing Green everytime he comes to bat with a man or two on base, hitting that pulled grounder directly to the 2nd baseman to end the inning and kill a much needed rally, but the Drew signing as I had always suspected it, was going to be a bad one simply because of the injury record.

Before this season even started, I had always felt that injuries were going to be the story here and while its only the first half of the season, the second half always proves to be the one where stamina is most important.

I think we should put up a white flag with a red cross in it, out in centerfield. Both to surrender and show the nearest and fastest exit to the emergency room.

As Mortimer Duke said to his brother Randolph Duke in Trading Places, "Sell! Sell! Sell!"

I would be happy to "let go" of this season, so long as we use it wisely. Why not let Choi play every day, and give him a chance against lefties? If he fails, then we'll know the truth. Why not give some of our young prospects a chance to play? We'll be a lot more informed about next season. What a mistake it would be to trade them away for some player that might land us only 7 games out of the playoffs instead of 15. Come on, we all realize that 6 1/2 games it not insurmountable with a HEALTHY team, but it can not be overcome in our current situation. This season is over. I let Depo off the hook. There is no way to judge how his team would have done. Let's try again next year.

Some of your rationales leave me scratching my head.

#35-Why would you trade Laroche,the best power prospect in the system and one of the top five in MLB?On what do you base the assumption that "his value will never be higher"Have you ever seen him play.I have.The kid can flat out mash.Not only that he's a solid citizen.I understand there are lots of overhyped prospects,but believe it or not,some of them do actually make it to the big leagues.I'd bet on this kid.
#46-"Don't protect Kuo,Loney,Miller and JAckson"Huh? When you're in danger of losing Zach Hammes and a few other marginal guys to rule 5,why would you expose elite prospects.Miller is twenty years old coming off not serious shoulder surgery with a bright future.Loney is a solid player,also 20,holding his own in AA with still a high ceiling,Jackson has back to back quality starts at Jacksonville and is at least capable of bringing major league talent in trade.Kuo if he's hurt doesn't need to be protected.
I understand pessimism and gloom seems all pervasive for some concerning all things Dodger,but the farm system really is solid.
It doesn't need to be gutted.

#67: Bill, thanks for reinforcing the opinions that many of us share. The Dodgers farm system is the lone bright spot this season.

67-I also agree with you, and further, I am not sold that this season is over. I am willing to wait and see where we are in a month.

If DePo rents a player July 31 to the end of the year ala Finley last year, as they have done in Oakland every year, who knows what can happen over the last 60 or so games in the weak NL west...

it seems like the frustration is producing a lot of flippancy and glibness in the comments here lately. the reality is that there are no quick and easy solutions.

you go with what you got for now, stay the course DePo has set upon, then decide the end of July if we sell or rent...

When people start saying we should have kept Green and not signed Drew, just because something happened to Drew that could happen to any other major leaguer at any other time, it's time to call out the men in the white suits, cause that's crazy talk.

By the way, if we go 50-31 over the last 81, we win 88. There is no one who is going to make up those 12 games, even if you assumed that 88 had a chance to make the playoffs. We are a 26-41 team, pretending to hang around .500.

No more Burnitzes.

People who are comparing Drew to Green are making a DePo stat mistake. Whatever Green's stats are WE ARE PAYING THE DBACKS TO HAVE THAT HITTING. I repeat WE ARE PAYING THE DBACKS 10 MILLION DOLLARS TO HAVE SHAWN GREEN HIT AGAINST US IN AN UNBALANCED SCHEDULE. Drew has nothing to do with it. If we were going to trade Green, why would we trade, nay trade and pay a division rival for him? When all is said and done this year, Green's and Drew's VORP will be identical, making this trade ruinous.

72--When Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Paul Lo Duca, David Eckstein get hit in the wrist multiple times a season and do not go on the DL, I believe that puts a hole in your argument that every other major leaguer hit in the wrist stays out a month.

If we were going to trade Green, why would we trade, nay trade and pay a division rival for him?

Industrial terrorism. It would have worked too, if it hadn't been for those meddling kids and that dog.

When Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Paul Lo Duca, David Eckstein get hit in the wrist multiple times a season and do not go on the DL, I believe that puts a hole in your argument that every other major leaguer hit in the wrist stays out a month.

And Jayson Werth...who is surprisingly "brittle," right?

Sometimes the bone breaks. And then when it does, folks like you engage in the circular logic of calling those people "brittle" or whatever, when it may just be bad luck, the ball hitting it in just the right place, or any number of different factors.

But it's not true that any of those people are hit "multiple times a season" on the wrist, so it doesn't matter anyway.

#75: You are wrong about that. It has more to do with the type of pitch and the exact location of the pitch. A difference of a centimeter or two can make all the difference in the world. Also, the massive armor plating that Bonds brings to the plate (Biggio and Loduca as I recall) probably helps.

As for Shawn Green playing for a division rival, I think we were all hoping that he would do for them what he did for us, which was nothing (a Trojan horse of sorts). Like I mentioned earlier, there was no way to know that the reason Green had troubles was because he can only hit Dodger pitching.

Paul Lo Duca -- Man of Steel

75. interesting. you, casual observer, think not breaking a bone is a repeatable skill. what does biggio himself think? "luck" and "fate" are the words that come to his mind:

http://tinyurl.com/8tan6

#78: Yes, until the second half of the season (aka cryptonite) comes along.

76--I'm not sure what your pseudo clever comparison to terrorism has to do with baseball, but trading a rival team who you are competing with in a five team division for the lead a capable hitter is the wrong move. I'm sorry this doesn't fit into your narrow bizarro world where Jim Tracy is Beezlebub and responsible for world starvation. Tracy is incompetent but so are most managers. The fault lies with DePo as virtually all empirical data shows. If you wish to to the "I'm a law school graduate, I'm a clever debater" route, I'll be happy to oblige as I'm a law school grad too.

As to your "analysis" that bones break, yes they do, and on some people they break more often. Your statement that there is no evidence that Biggio has been hit on the wrist multiple times a season flies in the face of the fact that he is now the modern times leader in getting hit by a pitch. Your "analysis" is quite strong when you make statements backed up by no data as central tenets of your arguments.

#81: Exhibit A: http://www.comicscardsandmore.com/promos/HDbiggio.JPG

Notice the massive armor protecting Biggio's arm and leg. This partly explains Biggio's ability to get hit multiple times without breaking bones. Should Drew do the same? Probably, but that's a different argument.

81-whoa, settle down there hipster.....

82--Yes he should.

Jackson, Miller, Loney, and Kuo should not be protected. I think that pretty much solves our Rule V issues

thats the most ridiculous statement ive seen today.

83--Ok there lipster.

85--Why, because Baseball America tells you they're good players? Have you seen their stats? They're terrible.

injury or not, I'll take Drew over Green any day of the week...

Drew gets on consistently, Green has periodic hot streaks...over the long haul, I'll take the consistency

wasn't Green bothered by a bad shoulder for over a year, and he played thru it, the trooper...never mind that he was a rally killer, he played thru it, that makes him "tough guy", team leader to the promised land...

natepurcell--Please show me a pitcher who has made the major after having two shoulder surgeries BEFORE he's made it out of Rookie league baseball.

85-no, but it ranks up there in any event

85--Why, because Baseball America tells you they're good players? Have you seen their stats? They're terrible.

i have seen them play, and they are not terrible.

88--Again the point is not, Drew is better than Green, the point is, don't pay your division rival to have Green play against us. Not smart.

#84: And, I'll bet he will when he comes back (hindsight is always 20/20).

91--Because your watching them play and not stats tell that they are good. Interesting. How many games did you watch to get this opinion? One?

93--Did he wear a hand guard after he broke his hand in 2001?

92-so what if he is killing us with his bat, he is doing nothing to help them the other 140 games of the year

89-at least you said please

natepurcell--Please show me a pitcher who has made the major after having two shoulder surgeries BEFORE he's made it out of Rookie league baseball.

maybe you should get your facts straight.

1st surgery- to remove a bursa sac from left shoulder. not a majory sugery. NO structural damager. frank jobe said shoulder looked "pristine"

2nd surgery- they found the pain and shaved down the bone. again, it wasnt a torn labrum or anything.

another point, he pitched in AA at the age of 18, dominating hitters. that is well above rookie ball buddy.

3rd point, greg miller is the most talented pitching in our system. losing him in the rule 5 draft could be very similar to the astros losing johan santana.

97--So those cuttings the surgeon did to his shoulder weren't called surgeries? only labrum surgeries are surgeries? I learn something new everyday. Thanks!

He is also now currently pitching in rookie ball. You also haven't told me why you think your watching of one game is a better indicator of player talent than using stats. Are you a professional scout?

95: I don't know. But, many players are forced to wear them for at least a few months because even after the bone heals to the point where they can play it still hurts. So, in all likelihood, Drew won't break his hand again this year (gotta look on the bright side).

91--Because your watching them play and not stats tell that they are good. Interesting. How many games did you watch to get this opinion? One?

you are ridiculous, look at millers stats, they were amazing. look at kuos stats, they were amazing when he pitched. now if he is injured again, then no, we will not protect him.

look at jacksons stats now he is in a more nuetral home park, he has a 3.5 era. he is only 21, which is YOUNG for the southern league.

loney has steadily progressed. you still have to protect him.

losing him in the rule 5 draft could be very similar to the astros losing johan santana or DJ Houlton...

natepurcell and Dodgerkid...go to your respective corners for an 8 count, then come out fighting...

ive watched more than one game and ive also looked at stats.

i dont think i need to argue with you anymore. i said they were not MAJOR sugeries. their is a difference. he did not have any structural damage like a torn labrum. arguing with you in pointless.

Obviously, a 2 month rental is out of the question, although I think that the finley acquisition was just as much a block as a rental and we didn't really give up a lot for him.

The follow guys are untouchable: Billingsley, Guzman, LaRoche, and Martin. Everyoneelse could be had for the right price.

We will definitely make moves, but we won't be sellers. Realistically, who do we have to sell? I can only think of Weaver, who will probably be packaged with prospects to get some nice talent.

Regarding Drew vs. Green:
Drew .287/.411/.522
Green .283/.352/.505
When you factor in defense and park factors I still think Drew is a clear upgrade, VORP or no VORP. It's hard to evaluate the Green deal when you don't factor in Navarro or the fact that it opens up first base for the Choi/Saenz platoon. If Tracy hadn't mangled the handling of Choi we'd at least know if he is the answer at first.

I think Depo will make smart moves. Prospect mavens won't like what we give up, I bet, but Depo doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that would make rash moves just to try to salvage this season. Even the moves he made last year were geared toward improving the team for the future as much as trying to win at the current time.

also, so what if he is pithing in rookie ball right now. you have to start somewhere. he will make it to vero by the end of the year and next year start out in AA at the age of 21, still being young for the league.

basically, high cieling prospects like loney, jackson and miller are the types of players you want to protect. career AAAA players like brian myrow and henri stanley are now.

100--I'm looking at a statistic called games played. Oh look, he didn't play the entire 2004 season. Oh look he missed most of 2003. I guess we should let a healthy player go unprotected, and protect the pitcher with absurd health problems. Makes sense, if you follow the Kevin Malone school of thought. Maybe we should give Miller a multi year 100 million dollar contract to boot.

Loney has progressed to mediocrity. His slugging percentage is awful.

Jackson is young, but have any pitchers followed his route from dominance, to complete breakdown and made it to the majors? He can't even pitch in AA right now.

I'll stick with LaRoche, Tiffany etc. They are "progressing". Loney is not progressing, he is crumbling.

Jackson is young, but have any pitchers followed his route from dominance, to complete breakdown and made it to the majors? He can't even pitch in AA right now.

he has a 3.5 era in AA right now. oh, and roy halladay followed the same route and look at him today. im not saying jackson will be as dominant, but you asked for a comp.

also, young pitcher do not generally pitch whole seasons anyway. usually first year of professional ball, they get around 100-125IP and gradually build up from there.

Fearing Blue--

The Green trade is awful in the short term. Remember, sometimes trades and buys need to be done with the short term in mind, because the point of a season is to win the world series, not finish first in your division four times over four years.

With the Drew purchase we are stuck with a bad player for five years. Keeping Green we would be stuck with an 800 OPS hitter for ONE year, and would not be helping a division rival with offense. Because Green is so much healthier than Drew, when all is said and done this season, their VORP will probably be identical or close. Contracts should be as short as possible to minimize risk. That's why insurance companies only insure contracts that are three years or shorter. Look at Drew's contract. If Drew performs POORLY the first two seasons, he will stay with us for three more. Talk about a horrific deal. And there's no insurance protection.

Why is the Navarro trade a good one? We have a better catching prosect than Navarro already, and Jason Phillips as well. So we have a surplus of talent. The Green trade is even more of a joke.

and protecting him isnt the same as giving him a 100 mil contract. now you are basically reaching. all i am saying is, YOU PROTECT TALENT LIKE GREG MILLER.

im not saying put him on the 25 man roster or give him a new 10 yr deal. you protect a player who has the most talent in your system. simple as that.

I may be remembering wrong, but wasn't Dreifort's 5 year deal insured?

106--
I'm looking at Halladay's stats on thebaseballcube.com and I can't see how they match Jackson's. In 1998 he pitched a few games for the Jays. Then in 1999 he spent the season with them. In Jackson's second season after his first major league appearance he became injured and went to AAA from whence he has never returned. There is no comparison. In the incredibly small sample size you refer to (18 innings) Jackson has walked 40 percent as many batters as he has struck out. The kid is done.

109--It was, and it was largely due to Dreifort's being insured that insurance companies will no longer insure players more than three years.

haha, drew is a "bad player".

you asked for a comp of a pitcher that was dominant then got to the upper levels and something happenend. halladay was sent down to single A to break down his mechanics and work his way back up to the majors at age 24.

jackson is doing the same thing but at age 21 and in AA.

there is a comparison, but what jackson has on his side is TIME.

jackson is the equivelent of a college junior draftee who basically is starting out in rookie ball or Low A this summer.

Your "analysis" is quite strong when you make statements backed up by no data as central tenets of your arguments.

Please put down the malt liquor. Here is your "evidence"

"Your statement that there is no evidence that Biggio has been hit on the wrist multiple times a season flies in the face of the fact that he is now the modern times leader in getting hit by a pitch"

He could have been hit by a pitch twice in the wrist. We would not know, because you will not tell us.

I can tell you are a law school graduate, because you are not a clever debater.

Steve,
This isn't about who is the better player, it was about who was going to be stupid enough to take Shawn Green's salary, which if you noticed, wasn't celery. The only way we could get rid of him was to send him to a divisional rival, which if your the type of player of Green's capabilities, doesn't make one ounce of sense, especially if your paying the majority of that salary still.

Also, Arizona was the only team Green would wave on his no-trade clause? Or were you receiving electro-shock treatments at the time, and just can't remember? :)

"he Green trade is awful in the short term. Remember, sometimes trades and buys need to be done with the short term in mind, because the point of a season is to win the world series, not finish first in your division four times over four years."

EXACTLY!

Otherwise your nothing more then the Atlanta Braves. All of that talent with what is it, one World Series flag to show for it over how many years?

Why all the comparison to Drew and Green? It has been said a thousand times here over the last six months that Drew was the replacement for Beltre, not Green.

Regardless of whether you like Green or not, I never understood why Drew and Green were not an option for this year. Green was owed $16M. We are paying $10M. While we saved $6M, we are still $13M under the $100 payroll Frank told use we would have. We could have had Drew, MB and Green in the OF. I think the Plaschkes of the world would have been placated as well as the $$ballers. Then in 2006, Depo could simply not re-sign Green if he wanted.

Whether the breaks are fair, predictable or not. Depo wanted to do things fast and wanted to things his way. He stepped up to the high-rollers table threw the dice and lost. He may be the best dice-player in town but he lost nonetheless.

Green would not begin to solve our problems. He's hardly been better than Jayson Werth. The only disressting thing about him is his performance against the Dodgers. Otherwise, good riddance.

Seems like it got a little hot in here, then cooled off. I can't really monitor it all day, but in a nutshell, if you find yourself calling someone else stupid or some such - stop.

Looks like most people have taken a breather, though.

Can anyone tell me how many minutes the fireworks show Sunday did last?

Wow, the logic by some of you is horrible today. I think Dodgerkid argues just to argue despite whatever reasoning is presented. All of a sudden Drew is a bad player, Green is a healthy (I guess this year so far he is, but what about last year?), better player, and the Braves are a bad franchise? Aren't there 25 teams that would switch their last 10 years with the Braves in a heartbeat?

Anyone not on a fury binge would take 110 games of a typical Drew season along with Navarro, the two other prospects, and the $6 million which was converted into Perez' deal over 162 games of Shawn Green.

LAT, just a guess, but if we had kept Green and signed Drew, we'd have little or no money for a mid-season deal that I assume Depo was looking to make for a contending Dodgers team this season. Also, as someone else pointed out, Saenz and Choi would not be playing much. Isn't the production of Choi and Saenz at near minimum salary as high or higher than Shawn Green at $16 mil?

#110 Dodgerkid
In the incredibly small sample size you refer to (18 innings) Jackson has walked 40 percent as many batters as he has struck out. The kid is done.

While the sample size is small, Jackson's K/BB (2.40) is not all that bad. For comparison, only four major league teams have a staff that averages better than 2.4 (Twins are best at 2.87) and 21 teams have a staff with a K/BB average worse than 2.0 - not to mention that for any Jacksonville pitchers with a decent sample size, only Billingsley (3.41), Broxton (2.96), and Hanrahan (2.59) are better than Jackson's 2.40. On the other hand, Jackson's WHIP of 1.11 leads the Jacksonville staff. I am amazed that you can write him off and say that he is done for having good stats whether it is a small sample size or not.

Jon, The fireworks show lasted about 15 minutes. It was mostly done but the lack of a finale made it seem really bad and ended very flat.

It was mostly done but the lack of a finale made it seem really bad and ended very flat.

Sort of like the season.

some great news about greg miller:

Greg Miller throws 3 no hit innings, allowing just 2 Walks while striking out 6.

Lot's of silly posts today so I'll just try to continue the trend.

How hard can it be to replace JD Drew and his empty 14 home runs? I mean of the top 25 hitters in the NL in OPS, JD is ranked 12th, however you have to go to the player ranked 25th to find a player with fewer runs batted in and that is the supposedly weak 1st baseman of the Diamondbacks in Chad Tracy. We've reached the 1/2 way point and our number 3 hitter has 36 runs batted in. Excuse me if I don't give up the season because this guy is going to miss 8 weeks. I know BP and the saber crowd are not impressed with runs batted in but the last I looked to win a baseball game you have to outscore the opponent not outwalk him.

What I would do:
1st - Mr Saenz has had a great season but he should be on the bench for the rest of the year. We don't need to give up the season but we do need to see what we have and that means running Mr Choi out at 1st base as much as possible. He can't learn to hit LHP unless he faces them.
2nd - Kent nuff said, anybody who doens't think that Kent wasn't the biggest upgrade in baseball from 2004 - 2005 at one position is an idiot.
SS - Izzy needs to play SS. Guzman is not even close to an answer at SS. He's already made 18 errors in 1/2 a season and his bat isn't near ready. I'm his biggest fan but if Guzman ever plays SS at the Major League level I'll be shocked. A Perez could play SS but I don't think he's would be any better offensively then Izzy and a big drop off in defense. You want to talk about small sample size just keep running A Perez out there and you will see a 260-280 hitter with little pop, lousy base running skills. Our future for the next couple of years is Izzy. That said I would trade him and plug A Perez at SS if someone was to get caught up in his gold glove and all-star status and give us a gold mine.
3b - is the ?. Jose Valentin will be back soon but since he was only a one year stop gap we could move him to a team that needs a utility player. LaRouche is not going to help this year so the question is, will he be ready in 2006. Depo needs to figure that out. Edwards and A Perez look fine as a back up or a platoon with Jose Valentin for the rest of the year but playing that group does nothing for 2006.
C - Phillips is a decent offensive catcher but I'd like to see Navarro come up and become not just a backup but get at least 50% of the playing time. Some people have Martin as untouchable but I dont' see it. He looks to have a nice future but I'd trade either him or Navarro in the right deal.
OF - yikes, what a mess.
Were now missing our whole outfield other then Werth with no good options. Biggest ? of all is here. Stanly/Repko/Ross/Ledee/Chen are 4th/5th outfielders and we don't need to see them play to figure it out. So do we trade for an OF? If we do, what do we do when our boys get healthy? This is tough knot and I hope Depo makes the right decision.
Pitching is easier-
Lowe/Penny/Peraz - signed and going nowhere
Weaver - out of here, what can we get?
Houlton- keep giving him the ball, last night nonwithstanding
Get D Thompson back up here and put him in the rotation or trade him

In September we will get to see Billinglsy/Broxton/E Jackson/Orenduff to see which of those 4 might be able to help the most in 2006. I still think to much expectation was put on E Jackson because of his debut but that he will be heard from again.

No one is untouchable depending on the trade. If were talking Oswalt/E Chavez I'm willing to include anyone and everyone.

The one trade I would make is this one:
Trade LaRoche/Weaver/J Valentin
For
Andy Marte/Langerhans

Why - because Marte is ready to play 3b right now. If we give him the rest of 2005 to get his feet wet, he will be ready to really contribute in 2006. The Braves don't have a spot for him as they have said they aren't going to move Jones off of 3b. LaRoche is also a 3b but he won't be ready for maybe 1 or 2 years. Langerhans would give us solid OF. Yes his numbers are not great shakes but he got off to a slow start and is putting up decent numbers and plays a great defensive OF and is LH so at least Repko/Ross don't have to face the RHP that they flail against. When or if our Boys get healthy Langerhans will make an excellent 4th outfielder or platoon mate for Werth. The Braves get a starting pitcher, a prospect who compares to Marte but is further away, a solid utility player in Valentin who can play anywhere.

substitute langerhans for kelly johnson then i might do it.

"How hard can it be to replace JD Drew and his empty 14 home runs?"

Add in everything else he does, and I'd say pretty hard. If you care about RBI, you should be worried about what Drew's absence is going to do to Jeff Kent's totals.

#107: If "helping our division rivals with offense" means sending them an .800 OPS poor-defensive outfielder for $10+ million / year to block their top prospects (Connor Jackson and Carlos Quentin), then sign me up.

I don't think it's Drew's fault his home runs are 'empty.' It has seemed that a vast majority of the Dodgers home runs have been solo shots, suggesting that they're all 'empty.' I don't know if that's true, but it seems that way from watching the games.

I agree that Dodger fans are not unwilling to have a rebuilding year. It is management and ownership that historically have been unable to acknowledge the need/wisdom of rebuilding. Ticket sales, you know...