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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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Derek's Dominoes
2005-07-12 09:13
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Up to now, I've mostly viewed the first Derek Lowe season in Los Angeles as a success, but Lowe's ERA, 2.04 at the end of April, has been steadily declining since. It was 4.14 for the month of May, 4.70 in June and is 8.00 after two starts in July.

Overall, his ERA is 3.99, which of course does not include the 16 unearned runs he has allowed in 19 games. These high unearned run totals form one of the under-the-table criticisms of his performance, that Lowe lets errors behind him cause too much damage.

Lowe's season has already differed dramatically from his final year in Boston - through the similarity of 15 home runs allowed. That was his total in 183 2/3 innings in Boston in 2004, and that's his total in only 120 2/3 innings with the Dodgers in 2005.

Perhaps not coincidentally, Lowe has been around the plate much more this season. His strikeout/walk ratio has practically doubled, from 1.48 in 2004 to 2.89 in 2005. He has walked 1.39 batters per six innings (and isn't that the better time frame to use in this day and age) this season, compared to 2.32 in 2004.

Lowe seems to challenge at the right moments and pitch more carefully at the right moments. Nine of Lowe's 15 homers allowed this season have been with the bases empty and five others have been with one runner on. Only one homer came with two men on base. His walk rate also increases with runners on base by 45 percent.

He just gets burned sometimes either way.

Lowe's recent decline has dropped him to 181st in the Baseball Prospectus pitching ratings - using the statistic Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) - trailing such pitchers as San Diego No. 5 Tim Stauffer and Tampa Bay retread Casey Fossum, not to mention well behind Jeff Weaver (No. 97) and off a cliff compared to Brad Penny (No. 27). A potential saving grace for Lowe is that his batting average allowed on balls hit into play (BABIP), .307, is 43rd in baseball among those with 50 innings pitched. Lowe could be due for a little better luck.

(That BABIP list has some interesting names near the top, however. Randy Johnson, Jason Schmidt and Javier Vasquez are among them, but so are Hideo Nomo, Chan Ho Park and Jose Lima. Kevin Brown is first (.382), and D.J. Houlton is fourth (.358). Might be worth taking a snapshot of it today and seeing if the luck changes for any of these fellas.)

Bottom line, Lowe has been a better pitcher than he was in the 2004 regular season. Beyond that, he hasn't exceeded expectations. And with a 4.80 ERA since May 1, he's reaching a point on an individual level where he needs to turn things around before the season completely gets away from him.

Comments (280)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-07-12 10:21:05
1.   Fearing Blue
Minor League Update
Statistical summary format is AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters and ERA/IP/K/BB for pitchers.

Las Vegas 51s (AAA):
No game scheduled.

Jacksonville Suns (AA):
The Suns lost 8 - 2 to Montgomery.

Six of the seven Suns hits came from Dodgers prospects. Right fielder Justin Ruggiano went 2 for 4 with an RBI (.444/.500/.611). First baseman James Loney went 1 for 4 with a double, a run scored, and an RBI (.276/.354/.395). Loney finished up the last two innings of the game in right field, with Ruggiano moving to center. Second baseman Delwyn Young went 1 for 3 with a double and a walk (.291/.339/.462). Shortstop Joel Guzman went 2 for 3 (.288/.354/.493). Guzman was pulled for a pinch runner in the 6th when he was injured legging out a single. There's no word yet on the nature or severity of his injury. The Suns were consistently frustrated by the Montgomery pitchers, only scoring 4 earned runs in 35 innings during the 4 game series. This frustration led to a small dugout skirmish between center fielder Jon Weber and shorstop Dave Nicholson.

Starting pitcher Joel Hanrahan took the loss, allowing 3 runs (none earned) on 2 hits (1 double) and 4 walks, while striking out 5 (5.23/51.2/46/21). All of the unearned runs were scored on a bases loaded double in the first after a fielding error by Delwyn Young extended the inning. Hanrahan was pulled with 2 outs in the 4th after allowing two baserunners. Unfortunately, the Suns bullpen was not able to provide any relief, allowing 5 runs (all earned) over the final 3 innings of the game. Carlos Alvarez pitched 0.2 innings, allowing 2 runs (both earned) on 3 hits with 1 strikeout (5.14/7.0/11/1). Jonathan Broxton pitched an inning of relief, allowing 1 run (earned) on 2 hits with no strikeouts (3.39/85.0/89/28).

Vero Beach Dodgers (High-A):
The Dodgers won 3 - 2 over Clearwater.

The Dodgers managed 11 hits in the game, but were held to only 3 runs. Right fielder Matt Kemp went 2 for 4 (.275/.313/.559). First base Cory Dunlap went 2 for 3 with the Dodgers only walk and a run scored (.282/.382/.373). Regular second baseman Tony Abreu started at shortstop since Chin-Lung Hu did not play in the game. Abreu went 0 for 3 with a sacrifice fly (.323/.350/.436). Designated-hitter Anthony Raglani was held hitless in 4 at-bats (.287/.389/.437).

Starting pitcher Chuck Tiffany pitched 6 quality innings for the win. Tiffany allowed 2 runs (both earned) on 2 hits (1 homerun) and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts (3.56/73.1/86/28). Relievers Alvis Ojeda, Justin Simmons, and Mark Alexander combined to hold Clearwater hitless and scoreless over the final 3 innings. Alexander pitched 1.2 innings for the save, allowing 2 walks while striking out 4 (1.71/42.0/64/16).

Columbus Catfish (Low-A):
The Catfish won 5 - 2 over Asheville.

Asheville finally shut down Travis Denker. Designated hitter Denker was held hitless in 5 at-bats with 2 strikeouts (.290/.407/.515). Fortunately, the rest of the lineup picked up the pace with second baseman Brandon Carter, third baseman Blake Dewitt, first baseman Daniel Batz, catcher Christopher Westervelt, and shorstop Dominique Lauren all having multi-hit games. Dewitt went 2 for 4 with a walk and 3 runs scored (.271/319/.423).

Starting pitcher Blake Johnson pitched 7 strong innings for the win. Johnson allowed 2 runs (both earned) on 5 hits (1 homerun) and 2 walks while striking out 6 (3.21/81.1/70/27). Johnson, a 20 year old right-hander, was the Dodgers second round pick in last year's draft out of Parkview Baptist School. Brian Akin, a 23 year old right-hander, pitched 2 scoreless innings for the save (3.60/45.0/29/17). Akin was a 14th round draft pick in last year's draft out of Davidson College.

Ogden Raptors (Rookie):
The Raptors won 9 - 8 over Helena.

The Raptors scored 9 runs on just 10 hits thanks to the benefit of 6 walks and 6 errors given up by Helena. Shorstop Juan Rivera went 3 for 5 with a solo homerun, a walk and a stolen base (.306/.403/.387). Rivera was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2003 and was ranked as the Dodgers 29th best prospect by Baseball America coming into the season. Rivera is repeating the Rookie level at 18-years old after playing for the GCL Dodgers last year. Rivera has an advanced understanding of the strike zone with 8 walks and 9 strikeouts in 62 ABs. He projects to be a tremendous defensive shortstop and develop some gap power to go with his plate discipline. Second baseman Jesus Soto was held hitless on the night, going 0 for 5 with a walk and 4 strikeouts (.329/.367/.541). Like Rivera, 18-year old Soto was signed in 2003 and is repeating the Rookie level. Soto already has some pop with an ISO of .212, but needs to work on his plate discipline with 5 walks and 16 strikeouts in 85 ABs. First baseman David Sutherland went 2 for 3 with 2 walks and 2 runs scored (.434/.522/.487). Third baseman Russell Mitchell went 2 for 5 with a double and a run scored (.326/.337/.686). Mitchell's plate discipline is terrible with only 1 walk and 14 strikeouts in 85 ABs, but his power is off the charts with a .360 ISO. Right fielder Sergio Pedroza went 1 for 4 with a walk and an RBI (.500/.574/.783). Catcher Juan Apodaca went 2 for 5 with a homerun, 2 runs scored and 3 RBIs (.373/.403/.695). Between 18 year old shorstop Rivera, 18 year old second baseman Soto, and 18 year old catcher Apodaca, the Dodgers have a strong core of young talent at key defensive positions.

Pitchers Mario Alvarez and David Pfeiffer combined to allow 8 runs (all earned) on 11 hits and 2 walks. Starter Alvarez did not make it out of the second inning, allowing 5 earned runs. Pfeiffer was fortunate to get the win after allowing 3 earned runs in 4.1 innings. On the opposite end of the quality spectrum, relievers Jonathan Meloan and Ramon Troncoso combined to pitch 3 perfect innings. Meloan, a 21 year old right-hander, pitched 2 innings and struck out 3 (3.00/6.0/11/2). Troncoso, a 22 year old right hander, pitched 1 inning and struck out 2 (2.61/10.1/11/1).

GCL Dodgers (Rookie):
The Dodgers lost 6 - 1 to the GCL Nationals.

Shortstop Ivan DeJesus went 2 for 4 driving in the Dodgers only run (.250/.286/.275). Designated hitter Matthew Paul, Xavier Paul's brother, was the only other Dodger with multiple hits, going 2 for 3 and scoring the Dodgers only run (.154/.154/.154). Third baseman Josh Bell went 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts (.289/.333/.378). Left fielder Carlos Santana went 1 for 4 (.407/.455/.630). Santana, at 19-years old, is the only Dodgers regular with a slugging over .500. The Dodgers as a team are still last in the Gulf Coast Leauge in extra-base hits.

Starter Arismendy Castillo pitched 2 perfect innings, striking out 2 (6.75/8.0/8/7). Reliever Steven Johnson was tagged with the loss, allowing 4 runs (all earned) on 4 hits in 2 innings (9.95/6.1/5/2). The most exciting aspect of the game was Greg Miller's third rehab appearance. The good news is that Miller was able to pitch 4 innings. The bad news is that Miller did not pitch well, allowing 2 runs (0 earned) on 4 hits and a walk, while striking out 1 (3.00/9.0/8/4). Twenty-one year old right-hander Miguel Ramirez finished the game by pitching one scoreless inning on a hit and a strikeout (2.08/8.2/7/1).

2005-07-12 10:46:01
2.   Jon Weisman
Loney in the outfield? Is that something they're really trying? That could make his bat more viable.
2005-07-12 10:48:49
3.   FirstMohican
The Dodgers managed 11 hits in the game, but were held to only 3 runs.

Sounds like they're ready for the bigs.

2005-07-12 10:59:31
4.   Marty
2. Perhaps it had something to do with the skirmish. Sounds like they may have yanked the center fielder after the fight.
2005-07-12 11:06:23
5.   Fearing Blue
#4: Based on the box score, that seems accurate. Center fielder Jon Weber was removed from the game at the same time. It was a strange substitution overall.

Carlos Medero-Stultz took Weber's spot and took over at catcher.
Eric Langill moved from catcher to first base.
James Loney moved from first base to right field.
Justin Ruggiano moved from right field to center field.

2005-07-12 11:09:40
6.   brendan glynn
what is the story with Justin Ruggiano? Is he one of the non prospect guys in the Jax outfield or recent call up? nice numbers.
2005-07-12 11:11:17
7.   Fearing Blue
#2: I get the impression the Dodgers really like Loney at first base. The scouting on him is that he could be a perennial Gold Glove candidate and that he'll develop enough power (20+ HRs) to stick at the position. It would be extremely valuable to have a Gold Glove first baseman if Guzman stays at shortstop. Arm accuracy has been Guzman's biggest challenge.
2005-07-12 11:13:29
8.   brendan glynn
#7

Laroche, Guzman, Loney damn that would be great to have a home grown(stud) infield again.

2005-07-12 11:15:28
9.   Fearing Blue
#6: Ruggiano is a recent callup from Vero Beach where he was also crushing the ball. He's only had 18 at-bats so far with Jacksonville. His callup was part of a promotions that got kicked off by Chen's promotion to the majors. Here are Ruggiano's numbers from Vero Beach:

Ruggiano (High-A): .307/.394/.510 with 9 HRs, 27 BBs, and 65 Ks in 241 ABs

Ruggiano is still a little old at 23, but he's only had 1.5 years in the minors after being drafted out of Texas A&M in the 25th round last yar.

2005-07-12 11:15:59
10.   the OZ
8 - and Denker at 2B if he keeps it up.
2005-07-12 11:20:30
11.   Fearing Blue
#8: I'd add Travis Denker at 2B to that list. At 19 years old, he's pummelling Low-A pitching.
2005-07-12 11:21:07
12.   Fearing Blue
#11: Even at 11am I need to refresh before posting :).
2005-07-12 11:23:08
13.   Fearing Blue
The following infield is the type of thing GMs and scouting directors dream about.

C: Russell Martin
1B: James Loney
2B: Travis Denker
SS: Joel Guzman
3B: Andy LaRoche

2005-07-12 11:23:18
14.   Jacob L
Derek Lowe? Prospects in Jacksonville?

What's the record for Choi-Tracy-Dunn-less posts?

2005-07-12 11:24:42
15.   fanerman
#14,
No no no! Nobody cares about Lowe! Let us dream about the way things could be, rather than the way they are now.
2005-07-12 11:26:20
16.   Fearing Blue
#15: It makes me giddy, in a night before Christmas sort of way, that our pitching depth exceeds our positional depth.
2005-07-12 11:27:13
17.   Jon Weisman
This could be the second day in a row that my morning post gets no comments directly in response.
2005-07-12 11:30:43
18.   Xeifrank
Dodger DIPs:

Penny 3.44 (ranked #20 in MLB)
Lowe 4.12 (ranked #41 in MLB)
Weaver 4.57 (ranked #72 in MLB)

Very average... not much to worry about from these three guys. Lowe is pitching like a very average league #2 pitcher.
vr, Xei

2005-07-12 11:31:50
19.   fanerman
#18,
What's his DIPS of the last 2 months? That may not be the DIPS of an average #2 pitcher
2005-07-12 11:31:55
20.   Xeifrank
17. My #18 post was meant as a direct response to your morning post.
vr, Xei
2005-07-12 11:33:51
21.   Xeifrank
19. True, it may not be. You can always filter stats in a way to make the player look better or worse. You can do the same thing with team records too. I am just using the largest sample size of the season as the number of permutations of presenting stats is almost endless. :)
vr, Xei
2005-07-12 11:35:11
22.   fanerman
#21,
True, but it seems like the point of Jon's post is that Lowe's been struggling lately and he needs to turn things around soon.
2005-07-12 11:35:27
23.   Steve
Did somebody say Adam Dunn!? :)
2005-07-12 11:39:09
24.   Xeifrank
22. and...?
2005-07-12 11:39:13
25.   Fearing Blue
This type of performance is roughly what Baseball Prospectus projected for Derek Lowe over the course of his contract. Essentially a slighty better than league average pitcher who you can bank on pitching 6 or 7 innings every 5th day. Here is the BP PECOTA Weighted-Mean Projection for Derek Lowe this year along with his actual performance:

Lowe (BP): 4.01 ERA; 5.47 K/9; 1.84 K/BB; .79 HR/9
Lowe (2005): 3.99 ERA; 6.04 K/9; 2.89 K/BB; 1.12 HR/9

As Jon suggested, the difference seems to be keeping the ball around the plate a little more, but the end result is pretty similar.

2005-07-12 11:40:44
26.   fanerman
Nevermind. Just trying to spur a conversation. So... what's new with Jim Tracy/Hee Seop Choi/Adam Dunn?
2005-07-12 11:42:19
27.   Fearing Blue
#22: Beyond just the unearned runs, it seems like Lowe has been impacted more heavily by the shaky infield defense. A .307 BABIP isn't really high for a groundball pitcher, but things like not turning DPs don't get factored in.
2005-07-12 11:45:08
28.   Steve
Isn't the difference between .79 HR/9 and 1.12 HR/9 fairly steep, even (or if you prefer, especially) if you assume that Dodger Stadium is neutral for homeruns?
2005-07-12 11:53:06
29.   Xeifrank
Of the things that Lowe can control (HRs, BBs, Ks) it looks like his HRs allowed is his only problem. His K rate and K/BB ratio look pretty good compared to years gone by. Like Jon's morning post said, Lowe seems to be finding the plate more this year than in the past. Looks like he is not able to effectively nibble at the plate. Anyone have numbers on his GB/FB ratio this year compared to previous years? Would be interesting to see if he is still able to induce GBs like he was last year. I think him and Webb were the leaders in that category by far last year.
vr, Xei
2005-07-12 11:54:02
30.   brendan glynn
#17

Jon, you said it all and said it much better than anyone else. take the silence as our collective agreement.

I was a big Dunn guy but with that infield line up of Fearing's I don't know now.

2005-07-12 11:54:49
31.   Fearing Blue
#28: Dodger Stadium is fairly neutral, but Fenway Park is a little worse than average. The percentage change is fairly steep, but it's the difference between 15 HRs (1.12 HR/9) and 11 HRs (.82 HR/9). Homerun rate has a high amount of variability just because the total number is relatively small. In terms of overall value, the increased homeruns are likely balanced out by the increased strikeouts and decreased walks.
2005-07-12 11:55:39
32.   fanerman
Lowe's G/F ratio is 3.14. Webb's 1st with 4.38. Next best is Burnett at 2.64.
2005-07-12 11:56:11
33.   Fearing Blue
#29: G/F rates from ESPN.com:

2002: 3.46
2003: 3.92
2004: 2.87
2005: 2.87

2005-07-12 11:56:21
34.   Xeifrank
29. Top 3 G/F ratios for 2005
B.Webb 4.72
J.Westbrook 3.22
D.Lowe 2.87

What was Lowe's number last year?
vr, Xei

2005-07-12 11:57:38
35.   Xeifrank
33. Thanks... so it looks like Lowe's G/F is very stable from 2004->2005.
vr, Xei
2005-07-12 11:57:57
36.   fanerman
Thinking about the future and Lowe...

How are LaRoche and Denker defensively?

How is Guzman's range?

I understand that given the changes to our infield defense and, GB pitcher or not, Lowe was the best pitcher available to us, so we got him. But it would be nice to have an above average defense behind him rather than just an average one.

2005-07-12 11:58:18
37.   Fearing Blue
#32: I'm pretty sure ESPN.com just does the ratio of G/F outs, which isn't as useful. Did you pull your numbers from Hardball Times?
2005-07-12 11:59:21
38.   fanerman
#37,
Yeah mine are from the Hardball Times. I forgot to mention that those are only NL pitchers though.
2005-07-12 12:02:22
39.   fanerman
addendum to #36
Of course the outlook of our current IF defense could be better if we had our opening day infield defense out there regularly.
2005-07-12 12:03:12
40.   Fearing Blue
#36: Guzman is supposed to currently have average range with soft hands and a very strong, but inaccurate throwing arm. Baseball America projects him to continue filling out to about 250 lbs. which would likely cut down his range to below average for a major league shorstop.
2005-07-12 12:08:53
41.   Fearing Blue
#40: LaRoche projects as an above average defensive third baseman. I don't know anything about Denker's defense. He wasn't on any of our top prospect lists coming into the season.
2005-07-12 12:14:00
42.   Steve
Guzman has extraordinary, almost superhuman range as a shortstop. :)
2005-07-12 12:51:23
43.   fanerman
He is afterall, JtD.
2005-07-12 12:55:16
44.   Jacob L
The biggest thing that Lowe brings to the table is that (crossing fingers while I type) he hasn't been on the disabled list. That and the 7 innings every five days is what we're buying for $36 million, and truth is, I'm satisfied. I also realize that this type of rationale could see us in the market for a pre-owned Jeff Weaver.

Anyone else notice that Lowe is looking more and more like Owen Wilson (or is it Luke - the blonde one is the one I mean)?

2005-07-12 12:58:12
45.   ddger
Jon, I have been disappointed with Lowe since the 1st month. Especially now when we really need some dominating starts by our pitchers. I know that the defense has let him down a lot this year but we should have known that our infield defense was weak this year. Depo should share some blame because he signed him knowing that our infield defense was not very good and that Lowe relies more on his defense than probably any other pitcher in the league. Depo should sign the right pitcher based on the players around him. Does Colorado bring back memories. They signed some really good pitchers who couldn't adjust to the park.
2005-07-12 12:58:21
46.   Fearing Blue
It would be amusing to see David Sutherland (6'6" 175 lbs.) and Joel Guzman (6'6" 225-250 lbs.) standing next to each other.
2005-07-12 13:07:14
47.   fanerman
#45,
I think Lowe was the best pitcher available that was attainable, even with a weaker defense than last year. Lowe has done what many projections had figured he would do. Of course he'd be helped by a better defense, but I think our defense would be better if it was the one that was out there for opening day (Valentin, Izturis, Kent, and Choi... yes, Choi). Valentin's injury didn't help. Saenz over Choi has not helped. Izturis being injured has not helped. Kent may have less range with his hamstring issues.

What I mean to say is, the infield we had at the start of the season would have done a better job so Lowe wasn't a bad signing and neither were the infield starters.

That, or, just blame injuries. Take your pick.

2005-07-12 13:07:29
48.   FirstMohican
45 - That's a little misleading because you don't consider that the infield has been shaky because of injuries AND because of Tracy's name-out-of-a-hat lineups.
2005-07-12 13:08:32
49.   Fearing Blue
#45: Who else should we have signed?

Matt Clement wanted to stay in the East Coast.
Pedro Martinez signed a 4 year / $53 million deal.
Brad Radke wanted to stay in Minnesota.
Carl Pavano wanted to pitch for NY and got a 4 year / $40 million deal.
Jon Lieber is 35 years old, injury prone and signed a 3 year / $21 million deal.
Kris Benson signed an overpriced contract of 3 years / $22.5 million to kick off the offseason ridiculousness.

Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright, Eric Milton, and Paul Wilson are already unanimously considered worse signings.

I guess we could have rolled the dice with a one-year deal on one of Esteban Loaiza, David Wells, Paul Byrd, Matt Morris, Wade Miller, or Jose Lima. But, all of those pitchers had significant risks. And, then we'd be in a worse situation this upcoming offseason, where there's even less pitching talent available.

The Derek Lowe certainly signing wasn't good, but it's hard to say it was that bad considering the market.

2005-07-12 13:10:10
50.   fanerman
Wow talk about the cavalry.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-07-12 13:10:58
51.   FirstMohican
Talk about getting blasted...
2005-07-12 13:11:30
52.   FirstMohican
Talk about slow posting...
2005-07-12 13:12:31
53.   fanerman
#52,
Well it's a slow day.
2005-07-12 13:15:03
54.   Xeifrank
45. Hard to blame Depo for the bad defense as we haven't had our regular third baseman for most of the season. Valentin was a SS, so he should be capable of the move to 3B. Choi isn't the greatest 1B, niether was Green. Kent is probably a slight improvement over Cora or even at worst. Izturis is Izturis. The defense that was suppose to be on the field hasn't been. I'm not going to defend our team defense, but let's face it... injuries have turned this team into a chameleon.
vr, Xei
2005-07-12 13:16:46
55.   FirstMohican
And the hits keep on comin...
2005-07-12 13:17:19
56.   fanerman
A chameleon that doesn't know how to play baseball. What a gip.

When is Valentin coming back?

2005-07-12 13:24:26
57.   Marty
44. Owen Wilson! or as Defamer calls him "The Butterscotch Stallion". Don't ask me what it means.
2005-07-12 13:24:46
58.   Bob Timmermann
Karma chameleon apparently?

How are the Dodgers like a chameleon? Do the infielders get sort of brownish-red while the outfielders turn green?

Or maybe the slight fever I'm running is making me loopy.

2005-07-12 13:28:57
59.   Xeifrank
58. From dictionary.com
A changeable or inconstant person: "In his testimony, the nominee came off as... a chameleon of legal philosophy" (Joseph A. Califano, Jr.). Not sure if my chameleon analogy was correct or not. I will leave that to the englisch majors and yawnlers of the world. But Bob, I've seen some of the infielders change varying shades of brown and the first baseman change from yellow to brown quite often. Oops! Sorry if that wasn't pc.
vr, Xei
2005-07-12 13:28:57
60.   Bob Timmermann
You mean this Owen Wilson?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_Wilson

2005-07-12 13:34:42
61.   Marty
And now a Boy George reference...
2005-07-12 13:52:00
62.   Bob Timmermann
I warn you people. I'm febrile.

But still on the job! My condition has improved from yucky to blech.

2005-07-12 13:54:21
63.   Jacob L
57, See, now I want to call Lowe the Butterscotch Stallion, or something loosely derived from that, but I don't know what it means. I did a cursory look at defamer, and saw the nickname like 800 times, but didn't see an explanation. So, despite your entreaty, I must ask - what's it mean?

60, Bob, that guy was not in "Wedding Crashers," was he?

2005-07-12 13:55:05
64.   Xeifrank
Is this journalism? I mean who has the time to read through and understand all this crap from the LAT.
http://tinyurl.com/e29e5
vr, Xei
2005-07-12 13:57:05
65.   Marty
63. I really don't know. I don't think they know either. But it's a great nickname.
2005-07-12 14:01:07
66.   GoBears
The really confusing thing about Lowe this year is that he's been a little worse at home than on the road. The hype was that he is the ideal pitcher for DS. Not so far this year.

Place __IP_ AB HR SO BB BAA OPS ERA
Home 58.1 233 09 43 08 .283 .758 4.17
Away 61.1 245 06 20 38 .278 .735 3.82

More Ks and way fewer BBs at Dodger Stadium, but also half-again as many HRs at home. Looks like he's throwing a lot more strikes at home and it's not helping. He needs to be more (effectively) wild.

Where DID he start on the road? If he's spent most of his road innings in other pitchers' parks (SD, SF), then maybe the home/road split makes more sense. And sure enough, he had a good game at SBC and two great games at PETCO (one third of his "away" IP).

@ LAA 7.0 IP 3.86 ERA
@ Ari 11.0 IP 4.09 ERA
@ Cin 5.2 IP 9.53 ERA
@ Col 6.0 IP 4.50 ERA
@ KC 6.2 IP 4.77 ERA
@ StL 5.0 IP 3.60 ERA
@ SD 14.0 IP 1.29 ERA
@ SF 7.0 IP 2.57 ERA

In sum, I think Lowe needs to nibble a little bit more at DS to reduce the number of HRs, and his home stats will start to look more like what we expected. But his only really horrible experience was in Cincy, where he joined a big club.

2005-07-12 14:08:29
67.   rageon
Before you get too worked up over a dream infield that includes LaRoche, Guzman, Loney, and (insert secondbasebman), consider a few things:

- As much as we would all love to see a guy like Guzman at SS, deep down I don't think it will happen. I think I even read somewhere that there's never been a regular 6'6" shortstop in MLB history. Now, that definetly doesn't mean that he CAN'T, but it would less to lesser the odds a bit. Realistically, we're looking at a corner OF in the making, particularily with LaRoche going all Bonds on minor league pitching.

- James Loney, huh? Makes trading trading for Adam Dunn unnecessary? Seriously? Some numbers....

A: 7 HR, 37 Doubles, 535 AB
AA: 11 HR, 36 Doubles, 714 AB
A & AA: 18 HR, 73 Doubles, 1249 AB

....Not exactly the makings of an elite firstbasemen. If you really want Doug Mentkiewicz (sp?) at first, then I guess he fits the bill. If you want a hitter, it doesn't really look like it's going to happen.

I've always given James Loney loads of slack because of his injuries. In particular, hand injuries, which definetly affect hitting while not seeming quite so "serious." But he's repeating AA this season, and a .395 SLG is NOT the makings of a starting major league corner infielder. Definetly not the guy who you don't trade for a hitter because of.

- Have we traded for Adam Dunn yet?

2005-07-12 14:09:57
68.   Bob Timmermann
64,
I didn't think it was bad. I found it somewhat touching. At least he didn't give his grandchild a nickname.

That baby was actually bigger than me was I born. I was a meager 9 lbs, 8 oz, a figure that makes many women wince.

Simers daughter who had the baby was a college basketball player and she's relatively tall.

2005-07-12 14:10:03
69.   fanerman
#67,
Guzman. To quote Steve (not exactly).
Bananas.
Ears
Not listening.
2005-07-12 14:11:03
70.   ddger
49. Looking back, I guess there weren't many other good options. It's too bad that the state of pitching has gone downhill so much. Probably all the expansion didn't help much. I dream of days when we can get a #1 guy who can win 75% of his starts.
2005-07-12 14:11:46
71.   Jacob L
I'm not quite sure how to look this up, but I suspect that Lowe has pitched in an inordinate number of home innings during the daytime, when Dodger Stadium's offense supressing powers are, of course, turned off. He's allowed like a .300 opponent average, and 9 of his 19 homers in 52 innings of day baseball. I just can't figure how much of the day innings were at home.

Therefore, in searching for Lowe's new nickname, we'd need to find something nocturnal, like the Butterscotch Coyote.

2005-07-12 14:15:19
72.   rageon
While on the subject of the future infield, I see no mentino of Aybar and Young. If we're talking secondbasemen, I've got to think one of the two, if not both, is going to be at least a league average hitter for the position. I don't follow the minors on a day-to-day basis, so I have no idea how much they've been playing there, but if I remember correctly, Aybar has been playing 2B & 3B and Young 2B.

My question is whether or not they are going to stick defensively at 2B? And if you don't believe they can be adequate, are they beyond being able to learn the position in time for 2007? Because Kent ain't going anywhere.

2005-07-12 14:15:28
73.   Marty
The butterscotch owl

The butterscotch vampire

2005-07-12 14:17:05
74.   Bob Timmermann
I don't have the home/road breakdown for this, but Lowe has pitched 51 innings during the day and has given up 10 home runs and has an ERA of 4.59

At night, he's pitched 68 2/3 innings and given up 5 home runs with an ERA of 3.82

2005-07-12 14:25:45
75.   Steve
I'll forgive the heresy regarding Guzman, since rageon played the Mientkiewicz card on Loney. I'm amost giddy to see how we distinguish Loney from Mietnkiewicz, because Mientkiewicz is like, the only scrappy first baseman in the entire league.
2005-07-12 14:26:36
76.   ddger
We really need help with out relief pitching. It will be very difficult to pickup closer caliber but are there any good setup men available?

How about Witasick of San Diego? I'm not sure if SD will help us but they have so many good relief pitchers that they might be willing to let him go for a mid level prospect.

2005-07-12 14:27:31
77.   Steve
Well, and Erstad.
2005-07-12 14:28:05
78.   ddger
76. Sorry Witasick is pitching for Colorado.
2005-07-12 14:34:09
79.   Marty
The Daily news reported today, in as nice article on our minor prospects, that Broxton would probably be brought this year for set-up purposes. He's got a 99 mph fastball.
2005-07-12 14:38:08
80.   FirstMohican
Maybe Florida can include Mota in that deal for Encarnacion we've been working on.
2005-07-12 14:38:47
81.   Steve
AIYYYYYEEEEEEEE!
2005-07-12 14:39:13
82.   fanerman
Immolation!
2005-07-12 14:43:55
83.   jasonungar05
"Everything about him screams winner," said Werth, a second-year outfielder. "I follow his lead because I know he's going in the right direction."

regarding Jeff Kent.

not a bad article on Kent in todays LATimes. (gosh, did i just say that?)

2005-07-12 14:52:41
84.   Fearing Blue
#72: My favorite quote regarding Delwyn Young's defense at 2B is from Baseball Prospectus:

"What he can't do is field. Think Julio Franco at second base; not back when he was 25 and could play there without the team instantly forfeiting, but rather eight or nine years from today. Perhaps after hip-replacement surgery"

Willy Aybar is a great defensive option at either 2B or 3B, but he may not hit enough to be a starter.

2005-07-12 14:55:23
85.   Fearing Blue
#70: Those types are extremely hard to come by, especially through free agency. You either need to develop one in-house, trade for one, or be willing to cough up $13+ million / year. That's why I'm loathe to give up our high-ceiling pitching prospects in trade for any hitter (i.e. Adam Dunn).
2005-07-12 14:55:35
86.   Ben P
Guzman is 6'6" with good range and good hands but an inaccurate arm. So why doesn't he end up at first base? He sounds like a prototype for the position.
2005-07-12 15:03:50
87.   Bob Timmermann
The Dodgers haven't had a starter with a winning percentage over .750 since Orel Hershiser did it in 1985 (19-3). In 1988, he was 23-8, coming up short by one win.
2005-07-12 15:04:08
88.   Fearing Blue
#77: Loney's upside is probably Erstad, which isn't that bad. He doesn't have superstar potential like some of our other prospects, but good teams are built around getting slightly above average performance for low costs at some positions. Even if you're the Yankees or the Red Sox, you can't afford to have a superstar at every position. The best news about Loney is that he's only 21 and he's clearly still improving:

2004 (AA): .238/.314/.327 with 4 HRs, 42 BBs, and 75 Ks in 395 ABs
2005 (AA): .276/.354/.395 with 7 HRs, 39 BBs, and 65 Ks in 319 ABs

2005-07-12 15:04:13
89.   Steve
Cesar Izturis tied Jack Wilson and Royce Clayton in win-shares at the All Star Break. He fell just short of the furious pace being set by Neifi. Who is going to play shortstop if not JtD?
2005-07-12 15:05:11
90.   Steve
Loney's upside is probably Erstad, which isn't that bad.

Trade, trade, trade, trade, trade, trade, trade, trade, trade, trade, trade, trade

2005-07-12 15:05:14
91.   Fearing Blue
#86: Baseball America thinks Guzman is athletic enough to play any corner position (infield or outfield). First base is typically the last resort since it's the easiest to play.
2005-07-12 15:06:18
92.   Fearing Blue
#91: Erstad when he was consistently posting .800+ OPS, not Erstad now.
2005-07-12 15:07:53
93.   the OZ
Here's a theoretical question:

Assuming Loney continues a .280/.350/.400 line in the minors, how long before he loses the 'top prospect' tag? Most here would probably agree that a .750 OPS 1B, even a young one at AA, isn't particularly notable. He's young for his league and could/should begin living up to the scouts' projections, but how long does he have? What's the average age/experience for the Southern League?

It's not rhetorical; I'm actually curious.

2005-07-12 15:08:25
94.   brendan glynn
#67

James Loney, huh? Makes trading trading for Adam Dunn unnecessary? Seriously?

Yeah, you're right. Everyone here has been pushing the Loney for Dunn straight up trade. Damn thanks for clearing that up for us.

The comment I'm assuming you misread was maybe we shouldn't be in the business of trading our top propspects(pitchers, laroche, Guzman) for Dunn. Again that was a maybe, If Joel The Destroyer can hit 30-40 HR's you can carry a sweet fielding high avg. gap type first baseman.

If the guy can play SS now at 6'6 he can play it down the road. He is not going to end up being 7'6.

2005-07-12 15:09:57
95.   Steve
If the guy can play SS now at 6'6 he can play it down the road.

YES, and it counts!

I'm starting to prefer Joel Guzman, Avenger of Evil at this point. But sticking with JtD is ok too.

2005-07-12 15:17:43
96.   Steve
By the way, since I'm now fully committed to being anti-Izturis, his fielding Win Shares put him in the same group as Bill Hall and, yes, alleged All-Star Jimmy Rollins. He beat Omar Vizquel, but was T-9 in the NL, behind (drumroll....) David Eckstein! Among others.
2005-07-12 15:19:16
97.   Fearing Blue
#89: We have a couple of Izturis+ types in our system.

Chin-lung Hu is a 21 year old defensive specialist with Vero Beach who already has some power. Baseball America rated Hu our 13th best prospect, though he's not having a great year (.279/.322/.401). His numbers are low partly because he doesn't take many walks (16 BBs in 312 ABs) and partly due to luck. Hu's makes great contact at the plate (only 25 Ks in 312 ABs), but his BABIP is low at .286.

Juan Rivera is an 18 year old, flashy defensive shorstop with Ogden who probably projects to have less power than Hu, but controls the strike zone very well. Baseball America rated Rivera our 29th best prospect, and he's doing pretty well with Ogden so far (.306/.403/.387 in 62 ABs).

2005-07-12 15:21:20
98.   Fearing Blue
#94: Well, he already has 20 errors at SS this season and he's expected to add another 25 lbs. or so to his frame. I will not make any definitive claims, but Guzman certainly has his work cut out for him if he's going to stay at shortstop.
2005-07-12 15:22:59
99.   fanerman
Ouch. Not the answer Steve was looking for...

So Fearing Blue, where do you expect to see "JtD, AoE" by the time he gets to the bigs?

2005-07-12 15:26:08
100.   Marty
With his arm, JtD screams rightfield to me.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2005-07-12 15:26:36
101.   db1022
Sounds like a Troy Glaus-type to me, who was a SS at UCLA until he got too "gerthy" for the position.

Of course now he's arguably the worst 3B in the league.

2005-07-12 15:27:29
102.   Fearing Blue
#93: I guess it depends on what crowd you're in. The statistical crowd is already losing faith in Loney, because 21 - 22 is age appropriate for AA. The scouting crowd thinks Loney projects very well, because he has a great, left-handed, line-drive stroke and his power projects well with a 6'3" frame. Baseball America rated him the Dodgers 4th best prospects prior coming into the season even after his debacle in AA last year. I think Nate agrees more with the scouting crowd and I'm somewhere in the middle. Power is often the last thing to develop and if Loney's does develop it in the next couple years he would likely make a few All-Star games during his time in the majors. If it doesn't, then he's in big trouble, especially since first base is his only home.
2005-07-12 15:31:12
103.   Steve
If Rivera is 18 then we won't be seeing him until Izturis is an old, gray, overrated shortstop.

If Hu doesn't take enough walks, Tracy will bat him leadoff and we'll get the same crap we get now.

Guzman is the "Prototype Shortstop of the Future." The New, New Thing. The sequel to Moneyball. Wine, women, song...and women! He truly should be known as His Holy Shortstop-ness, the Honorable Avenger of Evil, Sir Joel the Destroyer.

Kirk Gibson is going to be on ESPN here in a minute, by the way.

2005-07-12 15:31:47
104.   the OZ
Loney's 21 right now. Would you say he's got 2 years left to show he could play at the ML level?

How well do you think he'd have to be playing, stats-wise, by age 23 vs. AA competition to merit consideration as a prospect?

2005-07-12 15:35:14
105.   Fearing Blue
#99: I think it's primarily based on the team's needs, not his abilities:

If we don't extend Bradley, then probably right field with Drew moving to center.

If we do extend Bradley and don't sign another outfielder, then probably left field with Bradley in center and Drew in right.

If we do extend Bradley and sign another outfielder to a multi-year deal (Dunn, Giles, etc.), then probably first base.

Cesar Izturis should not be batting anywhere other than 8th, but otherwise he's not that bad for what he is and for what he costs. Even if we do trade Izturis, I don't know that Tracy or the Dodger fan-base would be comfortable with Guzman at SS.

2005-07-12 15:36:35
106.   Borchard504
At the risk of repeating a previous post (I haven't gone thru them all), Defamer got national respect in the latest edition of Newsweek, short blurb, page 14.

Nice to see the Dunn hysteria has died off. He is not worth the $10 million he will get after next season.

2005-07-12 15:39:52
107.   Steve
I don't know that Tracy or the Dodger fan-base would be comfortable with Guzman at SS.

Why would the Reds' manager get to decide where we play Joel Guzman?

2005-07-12 15:40:25
108.   Steve
I mean HHS, HAE, SJtD.
2005-07-12 15:42:19
109.   Fearing Blue
#103: Hu still has time to develop his plate discipline. Even if he doesn't, he's demonstrated roughly the same plate discipline as Izturis with a lot more power (.120 ISO vs. .075 ISO) in his minor league career.
2005-07-12 15:43:43
110.   Xeifrank
70. A pitchers win percentage is a by-product of how good of a team you are on, not necessarily how good of a pitcher you are. Garland pitching on the White Sox has a much different winning percentage than he does pitching on the Devil Rays, Rockies or Royals.

85. I loathe it too, but sometimes you have to bite the bullet. If we were to have a surplus of pitching prospects and could only keep so many of them, then why not make a trade to help one of our deficiencies.
vr, Xei

2005-07-12 15:46:09
111.   FirstMohican
107 - Because Tracy and Guzman were sent off to Cincy for Dunn.
2005-07-12 15:46:41
112.   Fearing Blue
#104: Two years seems pretty reasonable, though I would hope he's facing AAA competition starting next year. Players obviously continue to develop beyond 23, especially with regards to power, but by that time he should definitely show more than he is now. I guess the more important issue is trajectory. If at 23 he's still improving on a year-to-year basis, but he's not quite ready for the show, I don't think the Dodgers would cut bait.
2005-07-12 15:48:34
113.   Fearing Blue
#85: We only have about 5 high-ceiling pitching prospects (Billingsley, Broxton, Miller, Tiffany, and Jackson). I don't understand why we "could only keep so many of them".
2005-07-12 15:52:59
114.   Bob Timmermann
Speaking of players who are supposed to see their power improve, have the Padres decided to cut bait with Sean Burroughs?
2005-07-12 15:55:48
115.   ddger
113. Would you consider Hochevar with those 5 if the dodgers sign him. How would he compare with others?
2005-07-12 15:56:55
116.   Fearing Blue
#114: That amazes me. A 24 year old starting third baseman with an ISO of .050. Unfortunately for the Padres, Burroughs isn't even hitting for average this year with a .255 batting average. I guess the lesson learned is to let your young players develop their power in the minor leagues.
2005-07-12 15:59:01
117.   Fearing Blue
#115: Yes. Hochevar fits right in with that group and probably won't take much longer to develop. Jon Sickels projected him for the Dodgers starting rotation in 2008.
2005-07-12 15:59:42
118.   Xeifrank
114. Sean Burroughs had more power as a Long Beach little leaguer.
vr, Xei
2005-07-12 16:04:01
119.   Steve
Sean Burroughs WS = 5
Cesar Izturis WS = 4
2005-07-12 16:06:29
120.   Xeifrank
Sean Burroughs OPS = .635
Woody Williams OPS = .667
Adam Eaton OPS = .607

vr, Xei

2005-07-12 16:10:46
121.   Steve
Cesar Izturis OPS = .660

Beltre has pulled out to a .706 here at the break -- his lead at this point, is probably safe.

2005-07-12 16:12:51
122.   db1022
#106 - The Dunn hysteria has died down? I think it's as strong as ever here (with the the exception of Fearing maybe).

I'll take a 25 year old, .400 OBP, 50-homer guy on my team any day regardless of what position he plays.

Drew
Kent
Dunn

looks like a pretty good 3-4-5 (or 2-3-4 for that matter!).

2005-07-12 16:16:26
123.   Xeifrank
122. and Bradley! and the 1B de jour(sp?)
vr, Xei
2005-07-12 16:18:42
124.   Xeifrank
Over/Under on tonight's all-star game.

Carpenter 2-IPs (haha)
Runs: 8
Hits: 17
HRs: 2

MVP Prediction: Manny Ramirez.

Ciao!
vr, Xei

2005-07-12 16:19:25
125.   db1022
August lineup:

Perez
Drew
Kent
Dunn
Bradley
Choi
Phillips
Izturis

2005-07-12 16:20:14
126.   Steve
Choi, Dunn, and Guzman are the Holy Trinity. Thou shalt not put any Izturises before them.
2005-07-12 16:21:03
127.   Fearing Blue
I think we should do a prospect swap with Tampa Bay. They have a ton of outfield depth and I'd be happy to take Elijah Dukes off their hands for one of our high-ceiling pitching prospects. I wonder what it would take to trade for Delmon Young?
2005-07-12 16:24:57
128.   Fearing Blue
#122: I'm doing my best to help people to see the light. I have nothing against Dunn, but I think there are better ways we can spend our prospects and, perhaps more importantly, our money. On www.minorleagueball.com, it's being suggested that it would take Guzman, Billingsley, plus another prospect to get Dunn. Considering he's only a good value through the rest of the season, that type of payout just doesn't make sense.
2005-07-12 16:26:15
129.   fanerman
#126, 128
Thou shalt not trade one member of the Holy Trinity for another.

And include pitching? Don't trade the pitching...

2005-07-12 16:33:24
130.   Steve
On www.minorleagueball.com, it's being suggested that it would take Guzman, Billingsley, plus another prospect to get Dunn.

No sale.

2005-07-12 16:36:37
131.   joekings
So which of our prospects are we willing to let go?
2005-07-12 16:38:47
132.   ddger
Is Jackson and Loney enough to get Dunn?
2005-07-12 16:39:52
133.   ddger
132. We can add Werth too.
2005-07-12 16:40:24
134.   Fearing Blue
#132: No. Probably Tiffany, Jackson, and Thompson or something like that.
2005-07-12 16:40:26
135.   Steve
Gotta remember that the Reds GM is an idiot, and so the only way he thinks he can win a trade is to ask for three top-line prospects, lest he get in his own way.
2005-07-12 16:41:11
136.   Steve
Tiffany, Werth, Brazoban. Hello, Hillbilly.
2005-07-12 16:41:13
137.   Marty
Maybe they'll take Dreifort, Carrera and Erickson for Dunn.
2005-07-12 16:41:23
138.   brendan glynn
#98

He has 20 error's this season? How many are due his being 6'6 or too big for the position?

My point is this. if he has above avg range and hands then until he goes below avg he is a SS. no need to place him at below avg until he actually is below avg. what's the rush?

was Glaus ever an above avg fielder?

Somewhere in 1979 :"Magic Johnson is too big to play point guard. Not right now, right now he is above avg maybe even great but he is 6'9 now so that means he is too big. How about small forward, let's just skip to the chase and play him there. Because we ALL KNOW HE IS TOO BIG"

2005-07-12 16:41:33
139.   Fearing Blue
#135: He basically pulls out his copy of Baseball America and asks for each team's #1, #2, and #3 :).
2005-07-12 16:42:01
140.   db1022
#128 - Not talking smack, Fearing. I certainly respect your opinion. If anything, you've convinced me to not give up Guzman for Dunn.

I'd loves me some Dunn though. I'd give two pitchers (neither named Billingsley) and Navarro.

2005-07-12 16:42:15
141.   ddger
134. How about Jackson, Thompson, Loney, and D. Young. I would prefer keeping Tiffany since there is shortage of LH starters.
2005-07-12 16:42:33
142.   Fearing Blue
#136: I would do that trade, though once we all realize that Dunn can't play left field, we're going to be left with a pretty large hole out there.
2005-07-12 16:43:40
143.   the OZ
Regarding prospect-dumping:

The more I think about it, the more comfortable I am with losing a few B-level prospects to the Rule 5 draft if it means keeping the best kids. So we lose 3 B-level guys. So what? We're only losing them because we have so many A prospects. Plus they have to stick on some team's 25-man roster the whole year or they're ours again anyway.

Unless you can get good MLB value in return, trading an A prospect to protect a B prospect doesn't make much sense. Of course, there are shades of gray regarding needs, package deals, etc., but if it means losing Joel Hanrahan types, so what? We got CBill and the Bull and Tiffany and EJAX etal, so losing a Hanrahan is not that big a deal.

2005-07-12 16:43:45
144.   Steve
T and B, plus Navarro and the shortstop kid who can't walk. We keep Werth to pinch-hit against lefties.
2005-07-12 16:43:46
145.   FirstMohican
141 - At this point, adding Jackson would probably make a deal harder to get done.... or... Dunn.

Also... Thompson is a lefty.

2005-07-12 16:43:57
146.   Fearing Blue
#141: We might be able to sell them on Jackson, Thompson, and Delwyn Young if we can convince O'Brien that Young is a 2B since that's what it says in the boxscore.

By the way, Derek Thompson is a left-handed starter who has a little lower upside, but is a lot closer to the majors.

2005-07-12 16:44:08
147.   db1022
#139 - I'm not sure how much of a market there is for Dunn. Who, besides the Dodgers, would be willing to give up "top prospects" for him? I think most teams see that .246 average and upcoming $10M payday, and run for the hills.
2005-07-12 16:44:40
148.   ddger
142. He can't be any worse than Edwards out in left field
2005-07-12 16:45:01
149.   Steve
Who cares if Dunn can't play left field? Izturis is ninth in the NL at shortstop, and we can't get enough of him. Maybe Dunn will surprise us.
2005-07-12 16:46:17
150.   Fearing Blue
#143: Exactly. Plus, we can probably package up B-level guys for utility type major leaguers to fill holes if we're sure they're going to get nabbed.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2005-07-12 16:46:32
151.   Steve
Manny Ramirez can't play left field, and that works out ok.
2005-07-12 16:49:06
152.   Marty
Is Dunn as horrific as Ramirez in left field? That would be something.
2005-07-12 16:49:22
153.   Fearing Blue
#138: Based on what I've read, I'd assume the majority of his errors are on throws, but they're only broken down in the boxscores. I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to go through them game-by-game :).

I agree and I'm pretty sure the Dodgers agree as well. They'd rather keep him at shortstop until he forces himself off the position. The only exception would be to move him because he's major-league ready and we have another immediate hole to fill.

2005-07-12 16:49:23
154.   ddger
If Dunn can't play left, we can always move him to first and trade Choi.
2005-07-12 16:49:58
155.   Vishal
fearing, what exactly makes dunn so bad a fielder? if it's mostly range, then wouldn't having two above average fielders patrolling the OF make up for it a little? coudln't bradley and drew just cover a little more ground?

then when um.. some tall prospect with a big bat and plus arm comes up in a year or two and can play, say... right field, dunn can move over to first. no?

2005-07-12 16:50:30
156.   Fearing Blue
#140: Broxton, Tiffany, and Navarro may be a little steep, but that's probably in the neighborhood of what the Reds are looking for.
2005-07-12 16:50:48
157.   ddger
If given enough at bats, can Choi put up similar numbers as Dunn?
2005-07-12 16:51:39
158.   Steve
some tall prospect with a big bat and plus arm comes up in a year or two

Trying to sneak it by me! I know who you're talking about.

2005-07-12 16:51:42
159.   the OZ
151 - That's because left field at Fenway is smaller than the baseketball court at the old Boston Garden.

Bob Cousy had to cover a lot more acreage than Manny.

2005-07-12 16:53:03
160.   Im So Blue
#66, 71, 74:
Here are D Lowe's splits:

Away Day: 6 starts, 35.0 IP, 5 HR, 4.63 ERA, 1.3HR/9
Away Night 4 starts, 26.1 IP, 1 HR, 2.73 ERA, 0.3 HR/9

Home Day: 3 starts, 16.0 IP, 5 HR, 4.50 ERA, 2.8 HR/9
Home Night 6 starts, 42.1 IP, 4 HR, 4.04 ERA, 0.9 HR/9

Notes: Lowe had 9 games with 0 HR,
7 games w/ 1 HR,
2 games w/ 2 HR (vs. Min, night and @ Col, day)
1 game w/ 4 HR (vs. ARI, day)

That July 2 game vs. Arizona was a real outlier. Hopefully, we won't see that again. He needs to make more starts at night on the road.

[After I calculated all these splits, I went back to MLB and found them on the player stats splits page, double situational splits.]

2005-07-12 16:55:33
161.   Fearing Blue
#152: Baseball Prospectus gives Dunn a career defensive rate of 93 (100 being average), which means every 100 games, he coughs up about 7 runs defensively. Ramirez's career defensive rate is also 93.
2005-07-12 16:55:56
162.   ddger
160. Do most pitchers do better at day or night?
2005-07-12 16:56:17
163.   Vishal
i didn't want to incur any wrath, steve :)
2005-07-12 16:56:29
164.   db1022
#157 - Only if its salary-scaled.

#156 - But if there isn't a market for him? Some have mentioned Houston as a possible destination, but that's mostly b/c he's from the area. This may be a time that Depo can stick to his guns and leverage a deal.

I get the feeling the Reds have decided Dunn is the one they are going to trade (of Casey, Dunn, Griffey, Pena, Kearns).

Of course someone could ruin it all by accepting Casey (I'm looking at you, Omar Minaya).

2005-07-12 16:57:34
165.   the OZ
The Reds have talked about not trading Dunn until after the season. I'm assuming that's just lip service to maintain a strong bargaining position.

It's the Reds though - they may actually think they could get more for him after the season, when they're on the hook for his arbitration salary if they can't make a deal. Rule #1 of negotiating: make sure the other guy's deadline is before yours.

2005-07-12 16:57:34
166.   ddger
161. I'm surprised that Ramirez isn't worse. That's not too bad considering what Ramirez brings to the table offensively.
2005-07-12 16:57:52
167.   Fearing Blue
#155: Outfield defense is a combination of judging the ball, getting a good jump and speed. I'm guessing Dunn's deficiencies are primarily the first two, because he has decent speed. It will be tough for Bradley to get to the left field corner :).
2005-07-12 16:59:18
168.   Vishal
maybe bradley and drew can play really wide corner OF slots, and dunn can be sandwiched in center, hahah
2005-07-12 17:00:39
169.   fanerman
#168,
The added benefit of that is they can't fight over who gets to play CF.
2005-07-12 17:02:03
170.   ddger
Fearing Blue, can you get the info on who are the 10 worst in defensive rating. Just curious to see who is on the list.
2005-07-12 17:03:02
171.   the OZ
Just stick a glove on a 10-foot pole and he'll be OK. He could win a Rawlings Gold Glove [and pole]™ award for his defense.
2005-07-12 17:04:02
172.   Fearing Blue
#157: Choi strikes out a little less often, walks much less often, and hits HRs a little less often. But, Choi hits a lot more line drives, which should fall for hits, but haven't to-date. Dunn is also about a year younger than Choi.

So, the answer is no. Choi may hit 35 homeruns with a .275 - .285 batting average, but he's probably never going to hit 45 homeruns or have a .400 OBP. It's unfortunate that his chance seems like it will come with another team.

2005-07-12 17:05:17
173.   Fearing Blue
#170: Unfortunately, I don't think I can. Baseball Prospectus lists the information on each players page, but doesn't have an overview.
2005-07-12 17:05:55
174.   FirstMohican
Piazza's batting ahead of Kent tonight. Interesting.
2005-07-12 17:07:01
175.   ddger
173. Thanks for tryin. I would imagine that Ramirez and Carlos Lee (MIL) would be 2 of the worst fielding outfielders.
2005-07-12 17:07:09
176.   brendan glynn
Fearing
Error's
NAME
Edgar Renteria, Bos 17
Russ Adams, Tor 16
Julio Lugo, TB 15
Miguel Tejada, Bal 11
Jose Reyes, NYM 11
David Eckstein, StL 11
Derek Jeter, NYY 10
Jhonny Peralta, Cle 10
Felipe Lopez, Cin 10
Angel Berroa, KC 9
Alex Gonzalez, Fla 9
Juan Uribe, CWS 9
Jimmy Rollins, Phi 8
Cesar Izturis, LAD 8
Khalil Greene, SD 8
Adam Everett, Hou 7
Jack Wilson, Pit 83 6
Rafael Furcal, Atl 6
Cristian Guzman, Was6
Royce Clayton, Ari 6
Neifi Perez, ChC 6
Michael Young, Tex 5
J.J. Hardy, Mil 5
Orlando Cabrera, LA 4
Omar Vizquel, SF 3

Guzman's 20 at 20.5 years old doesn't look that bad to me,

2005-07-12 17:08:37
177.   Fearing Blue
#165: I would love it if the Reds waited until the offseason. It would be great for us because we could explore a variety of deals and free agent signings.
2005-07-12 17:13:51
178.   Steve
Of course someone could ruin it all by accepting Casey

That sounds like a Casey for Looper deal to me.

2005-07-12 17:14:33
179.   Jim Hitchcock
My comment on the season so far? This is the first time in years I haven't been disgruntled over the 3 day All Star break...
2005-07-12 17:16:03
180.   the OZ
177 - agreed. I really hope they don't trade him until the offseason, mostly because they lose a lot of leverage, and also because the presence of free agents in the player market dilutes the value of players that can only be acquired via trade.
2005-07-12 17:16:14
181.   brendan glynn
179

I wish it was 3 weeks

2005-07-12 17:17:07
182.   Steve
179 -- Are you referring to the near-annual hosing of our All-Star worthy players? LoDuca three years ago for Damian Miller. Bob Brenly should have been shot for that. Beltre last year for I can't remember who.
2005-07-12 17:18:11
183.   Steve
Of course, we finally got one back this year.
2005-07-12 17:23:04
184.   Jim Hitchcock
182 - No, Steve, I was pretty much saying I welcome the break.
2005-07-12 17:23:42
185.   brendan glynn
what happened to the National and American jersey's?
2005-07-12 17:24:41
186.   Steve
oh, because that's why I'm generally taxed at this time every year.
2005-07-12 17:26:09
187.   ddger
Anyone know which dodger was the last starting pitcher to make the all star team?
2005-07-12 17:27:19
188.   Vishal
eep... kevin brown? [cringe]
2005-07-12 17:31:51
189.   brendan glynn
#187 kevin brown 2003
2005-07-12 17:34:22
190.   ddger
Brown sure has taken a big fall. Is he finished?
2005-07-12 17:35:44
191.   Marty
190. I hope so
2005-07-12 17:36:50
192.   Vishal
no, brown wasn't there in 2003 i think.

dude, i think the correct answer is... chan ho park in 2001.

chan ho park!

2005-07-12 17:38:09
193.   natepurcell
nate, prospect guru #2 is here

what questions do you want answered?

2005-07-12 17:39:54
194.   natepurcell
in regards to loney. i still love loney. with prospects, im more of a scout guy but with mlb players, i tend to trust sabermetrics more.

with loney, he has very good strike zone discipline and a very quiet pretty left handed swing. the power isnt there yet, but he could be a late bloomer. look at werths power numbers as a 21 yr old. they were not very good. but he grew into his frame and if wasnt for his wrist injury this year, i am pretty confident he would have at least 12 homeruns or so.

2005-07-12 17:40:26
195.   brendan glynn
according to baseball Ref it was Brown, Gagne, Loduca in 2003

Brown had a 2.39 ERA in 2003 so he was qualified.

2005-07-12 17:41:09
196.   natepurcell
in regards to our high cieling pitching prospects, they are:
billingsley
miller
hochevar
jackson
broxton
tiffany

pitchers that are too young to project yet:
blake johnson
julio pimental
scott elebert
josh wall

2005-07-12 17:42:01
197.   brendan glynn
194

I agree. yes

2005-07-12 17:42:12
198.   Vishal
195. okay, but he was injured and didn't play in the game.
2005-07-12 17:42:16
199.   natepurcell
also to add with loney.

loney already has a major league caliber glove. hes very graceful over there. If we were to keep the 80+ homerun potential on the left side of the infield with laroche and guzman, we are going to need loney at 1b for defensive purposes.

2005-07-12 17:42:29
200.   ddger
Nate, who do think will make the majors first.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2005-07-12 17:43:02
201.   brendan glynn
194

still can't get over his spring training in 2004.

2005-07-12 17:44:19
202.   natepurcell
Nate, who do think will make the majors first.

out of who? pitching or positional?

still can't get over his spring training in 2004

he was poised to completely break out that year. but while running to first base, he got hit with an errant throw on his finger. and it got infected, and it went downhill from there.

2005-07-12 17:45:13
203.   ddger
Nate, making the rotation.
2005-07-12 17:46:24
204.   natepurcell
ughh, either jackson or billingsley.

most likely jackson due to the 40 man roster problem. billingsley doesnt have to be on it this winter.

this is on the asumption that broxton will start out in the bullpen. I still prefer broxton as a starter, he was doing awesome as a starter the last couple of years.

2005-07-12 17:47:26
205.   brendan glynn
202

I had heard that. Also something about his wrist. watching him that spring and I say you can't give up on him yet. Not by a long shot.

2005-07-12 17:47:29
206.   ddger
204. If Jackson keeps pitching well at AA, would the Dodgers bring him up in September and bypass AAA.
2005-07-12 17:48:47
207.   ddger
Maybe we should just bypass AAA for our pitching prospects and just bring them up to Majors. Look at Thompson. Las Vegas seems to mess up the mechanics and confidence of our pitchers.
2005-07-12 17:49:32
208.   natepurcell
204. If Jackson keeps pitching well at AA, would the Dodgers bring him up in September and bypass AAA.

possibly. lets see what happens though and see if jackson can be consistent.

2005-07-12 17:51:52
209.   natepurcell
also concerning our future 2b position.

i like willy aybar a lot. good fielder, good plate discipline, switch hits, should hit for more power than he is showing this year.

i know that he has had a nagging injury that he went on the DL for. before that, he was raking in vegas. Aybar's last years numbers in AA are more apparent of his true ability (factor in that the southern league is a pitchers park and jax stadium is a pitchers stadium)

2005-07-12 17:52:41
210.   natepurcell
and to add, we also gave aybar a 1.4 mil bonus when we signed him out of the dominican, i would like for that to not go to waste lol.
2005-07-12 17:55:47
211.   brendan glynn
nate

are they going to cycle jackson through the bullpen like the other starting pitchers in Jax? I think he might be a better reliever(short term) because he has "only" two pitches.

2005-07-12 17:58:47
212.   natepurcell
are they going to cycle jackson through the bullpen like the other starting pitchers in Jax? I think he might be a better reliever(short term) because he has "only" two pitches.

they said jax will get some bullpen time but only to shorten his innings for the year and give him experience there. but his future is as a starter. also, jackson has 4 pitches. a plus fastball, a plus slider, a average curve, and a change up that can be plus at times.

his change up is a pitch in progress. it can be great sometimes. ask delmon young, he whiffed on a jackson change to strike out.

what jackson needs to work on his working off his fastball and fastball location. the change up is coming along.

2005-07-12 18:04:34
213.   CanuckDodger
Anybody scoffing at Loney's sub-.400 SLG at age 21 in Double A might want to consider what is appropriate to expect at that age.

Todd Helton, age 21, Low Single A

.254/.341/.333

James Loney, age 21, Double A

.276/.354/.395 (Currently)

Better overall stats from Loney, a MUCH better slugging percentage, and oh, yeah, Loney is doing it two full levels above the level at which Helton performed at the same age.

Trying to read too much into stats when you don't know what stats are NORMAL for developing players at certain ages or levels is a useless endeavor. There are plenty of productive MLB players who never slugged a minimum of .400 in their entire minor league careers. Not every player shows power early, and lanky players like Loney usually show it later than the guys who have filled out shorter, wider frames by age 20 (like LaRoche).

2005-07-12 18:06:12
214.   natepurcell
hey canuck, why do the dodgers love non slugging first base prospects? lol

loney
dunlap
sutherland

heh.

2005-07-12 18:06:34
215.   Fearing Blue
#209: I certainly haven't given up on Aybar, but he definitely needs more time. If the power develops, he'll be an above average start. If the power doesn't develop, he'll be a very useful utility infielder.
2005-07-12 18:08:06
216.   Steve
Kent just left the game. Saving the hammy.
2005-07-12 18:08:45
217.   Fearing Blue
#213: Well, there are a number of 21 years old and younger players in AA who are slugging much higher than Loney. Helton was a late bloomer and the hope is that Loney will be as well. The problem with late bloomers is that you're essentially rolling the dice. Either the power comes or you end up with Sean Burroughs.
2005-07-12 18:09:07
218.   CanuckDodger
Dunlap and Sutherland REALLY are guys that I think may never develop power. Sutherland can't even hit a double at age 20. Cory Dunlap is a tiny bit OLDER than Loney, is playing a level below him, and has definitely already filled out a very squat body.
2005-07-12 18:09:12
219.   natepurcell
wow did anyone just see tejada crush that ball?

now, imagine tejada, but in a blue uniform and 6 inches taller.

you get JtD.

2005-07-12 18:10:25
220.   Im So Blue
162. Too much work to look up the splits for a bunch of individual players. Looking at the team splits, day ERAs do tend to be higher than night ERAs. Looking at differentials (Day ERA - Night ERA), there are:

6 teams w/ day ERA worse than night ERA by more than a run
Angels: 5.07 day, 3.27 night (1.80 diff)
Cards: 4.44 day, 2.83 night (1.61 diff)
Padres: 5.05 day, 3.48 night (1.57 diff)
followed by BlueJays, Braves, Giants

5 teams w/ day ERAs higher by more than half a run, but less than one run

10 teams w/ slightly worse day ERAs by less than half a run
includes the Dodgers: day ERA is 4.70, night ERA is 4.47 (0.23 diff)

4 teams w/ slightly better day ERAs by less than half a run

5 teams w/ better day ERAs, by > half a run:
Phillies, 3.84 day, 4.93 night (-1.09 diff)
Twins, 3.20 day, 4.04 night (-0.84 diff)
Reds, 5.16 day, 5.80 night (-0.64 diff)
followed by White Sox, Marlins

2005-07-12 18:11:13
221.   natepurcell
sutherland looks like his frame is similar to jayson werth. tall lanky shawn green like frame.

i said this on another board but if sutherland who is 6'6 doesnt develop at least doubles power, then god really screwed him over.

2005-07-12 18:11:32
222.   brendan glynn
Nate

I was being sarcastic about the only two pitches for edwin. I put that in quiotes because that is what I always read and know his false.

Canuck is right. too many people(i'm guilty of this as well)
compare these stats to stars in the MLB rather than the league they are in and their age.

2005-07-12 18:11:54
223.   Steve
His Worship, Pope JtD
2005-07-12 18:12:09
224.   Fearing Blue
#207: After thinking through this more, I'm not sure it's a bad thing for our pitchers to have AAA in Las Vegas. It allows the Dodgers to approximate the major league challenge level without them failing at the major league level. This should allow them to grow more before they finally face major league competition. And with regards to it "messing with player's heads", I don't think that applies to Derek Thompson or Eric Stults. They're both putting up numbers similar to what I'd expect if they were facing major league competition.
2005-07-12 18:12:23
225.   natepurcell
interesting, pedroza isnt in the ogden starting lineup, perhaps a promotion finally?
2005-07-12 18:13:11
226.   Fearing Blue
#221: I love that Steve described Sutherland as "gawky". Steve, is there any major league ballplayer you can think of who has a similar build?
2005-07-12 18:13:32
227.   natepurcell
I was being sarcastic about the only two pitches for edwin. I put that in quiotes because that is what I always read and know his false.

ahh got it. my bad :)

2005-07-12 18:14:14
228.   natepurcell
sutherland's nickname from his teammates is "goofy" lol. like the disney character.
2005-07-12 18:15:38
229.   Steve
You mean, 6'6", 150?
2005-07-12 18:15:44
230.   Fearing Blue
#225: That would be exciting, but knowing the Dodgers luck he probably fell down his stairs or something.
2005-07-12 18:16:32
231.   Fearing Blue
#229: Yeah.. 6'6" 175 lbs. and not a pitcher?
2005-07-12 18:16:55
232.   natepurcell
kemp just hit his 17th homerun on the year.

his ISOp is amazing at .277

thats just ridiculous for a 20 yr old in A+.

if only he could develop some plate discipline.ahh oh well.

2005-07-12 18:17:48
233.   natepurcell
the 175lbs isnt accurate. hes gained weight. i think hes up to 200 maybe. i hope lol
2005-07-12 18:19:19
234.   Fearing Blue
#233: Maybe we need to chip in and send him a daily allotment of Krispy Kremes.
2005-07-12 18:20:36
235.   Fearing Blue
#232: I know. It's unbelievable how much power he's displaying. How rare do you think it would be for a player like him to develop plate discipline?
2005-07-12 18:21:28
236.   Steve
The Orem stadium is a block from Krispy Kreme. I'll run some to him next time they're down here.
2005-07-12 18:23:57
237.   natepurcell
well he'll never be jd drew like plate discipline but hes the best "5 tool" player in our system. I could see him develop something along the lines of ISO OBP of .50- .60
2005-07-12 18:24:15
238.   Fearing Blue
#235: Matt Kemp is fourth in the Florida State League in slugging. Two of the players ahead of him, Andy LaRoche and Brett Harper, have already been promoted. The only player above him that's still in the FSL is Andy Wilson, who's 24 years old.
2005-07-12 18:24:40
239.   natepurcell
question, can someone bring up stats on tejadas defense?
2005-07-12 18:27:14
240.   Fearing Blue
#238: Haha.. with tonight's performance (2 for 4 with a double and a homerun), Kemp boosted his slugging to .575, passing Andy Wilson who did not play.
2005-07-12 18:27:23
241.   natepurcell
better yet, how about mike morse of the mariners. hes a 6'4 rookie shortstop. he could be the best comp we have to project guzmans future SS ability.
2005-07-12 18:30:20
242.   the OZ
Mike Morse and Mariner Moose. A match made in heaven.
2005-07-12 18:30:22
243.   Steve
I'm starting to realize that the voting was all a plot by AL fans to get their team the home field advantage again. They even realized that as long as Podsednik didn't actually play, they could have their cake and eat it too.
2005-07-12 18:35:03
244.   Fearing Blue
#242: Morse doesn't have as large of a sample size as Tejada, but I'll give both of their career numbers (Rate2, Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, Zone Rating:

Tejada (1184 games): 97 R2; .973 FPCT; 4.69 RF; .808 ZR
Morse (32 games): 103 R2; .971 FPCT; 4.45 RF; .827 ZR

2005-07-12 18:38:11
245.   natepurcell
JtD is on the front page of BA.com
2005-07-12 18:39:29
246.   Fearing Blue
#237: Who is a comparable player for Matt Kemp's upside?
2005-07-12 18:42:29
247.   Steve
He is chock full of shortstoppity goodness.
2005-07-12 18:43:27
248.   natepurcell
#237: Who is a comparable player for Matt Kemp's upside?

maybe willy mo pena? its hard to project because even pena didnt have that much power as kemp when he was 20 yrs old.

2005-07-12 18:49:13
249.   CanuckDodger
Yes, Pena is a good comp for Kemp. Pena struck out in a third of his at bats at every level of the minors, and usually drew few walks, but always showed monster power.
2005-07-12 18:53:55
250.   Vishal
stupid AL.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2005-07-12 18:55:25
251.   natepurcell
crap, i guess the dodgers wont get homefield advatange this october :(
2005-07-12 18:56:07
252.   Jim Hitchcock
247 - Steve is too funny.

250 - Can we please get rid of the designated hitter now? It has outlived it's purpose.

2005-07-12 19:02:33
253.   Vishal
i'm not at all perturbed about homefield advantage. i just like to root for the NL. remember when the seperate leagues actually meant something?
2005-07-12 19:03:09
254.   Vishal
er, separate.
2005-07-12 19:08:46
255.   Jim Hitchcock
And # 1 on the list of really stupid thing to do when at the stadium?

Using flash when trying to capture the action on the field.

2005-07-12 19:10:02
256.   natepurcell
brent leach has finally given up his first earn run in 19+ IP in the pioneer league.

i knew it was too good to last.

2005-07-12 19:10:28
257.   Steve
255 -- I thought it was never to fight a land war in Asia.
2005-07-12 19:25:59
258.   Fearing Blue
#256: That's unfortunate. Poor guy has a 0.47 ERA now. In other news, Josh Wall pitched his first game for the GCL Dodgers tonight. He allowed 2 earned runs on 4 hits (1 homerun) and a walk in 3 innings with 2 strikeouts.
2005-07-12 19:26:45
259.   Fearing Blue
I want to skip ahead to July 31st so we can start analyzing / breaking down DePodesta's moves. Between now and then I sense a whole lot of pain.
2005-07-12 19:29:13
260.   natepurcell
i hope we trade lowe, and keep weaver.

though that will never happen.

2005-07-12 19:39:43
261.   Vishal
Mr. Heart-and-Soul himself just killed the NL rally and bailed out The Gambler by hitting into a DP.
2005-07-12 19:49:38
262.   natepurcell
broxton has comparable stuff to lidge.

plus fastball, plus hard slider.

2005-07-12 19:50:07
263.   Fearing Blue
Hey Nate, what other boards do you discuss Dodgers prospects on?
2005-07-12 19:50:37
264.   Steve
261 -- Who let Repko in the All-Star Game?
2005-07-12 19:52:25
265.   Vishal
lidge is the only pitcher i've seen recently who brings that gagne-level amazement when you see him pitch, because of how foolish opposing hitters look.
2005-07-12 19:52:41
266.   natepurcell
http://mb3.scout.com/flosangelesdodgersfrm1

we have like a 552 page prospect thread dating back to 3 yrs ago that is pinned up at the top :)

2005-07-12 19:54:15
267.   Vishal
264. i thought repko was Mr. Scrappy... the trademark on Heart-and-Soul still belongs to jim tracy's mancrush paul loduca.
2005-07-12 19:54:18
268.   Fearing Blue
#262: Like Lidge but with an extra 60 lbs. or so :). I think Lidge's injuries may have helped his development in that he wasn't rushed to the majors. I'm concerned that Broxton may get rushed as he just turned 21.
2005-07-12 19:57:28
269.   natepurcell
extra 60lbs= more physically imposing presence on the mound :)
2005-07-12 20:09:28
270.   Fearing Blue
#269: And at the local steak house.
2005-07-12 20:29:13
271.   natepurcell
omg how fat is jeanne zalasko now?

banana in ears! shes not pregnant, just really fat

2005-07-12 20:30:50
272.   natepurcell
ha what a bunch of horsebleep, tejada hits a solo homerun and he gets a new corvette?

lidge struck out 3 all star hittings on like 11 pitches, he should get the mvp.

2005-07-12 20:31:02
273.   natepurcell
*hitters
2005-07-12 20:40:36
274.   Vishal
poor justin duchscherererer.
2005-07-12 20:53:52
275.   Fearing Blue
I've read back to July 3rd. Only 533 pages to go...
2005-07-12 20:58:42
276.   natepurcell
analyzing this coming off season i really think we will sign brian giles, or at least, be the front runners to sign him.

* the padres will have two key free agents, ramon hernandez and brian giles. ramon hernandez is IMO one of the best young national league catchers and will get his payday. the padres cant really afford to lose ramon so they will have to make a choice.
* the padres will probably give the money they are currently paying to giles to ramon. xavier nady should be an everyday player and now he will get his full chance when he replaces giles in RF. kelsko and nevin still have one more year on thier contracts and no team will probably take them off the padres hands.
* brian giles is a socal guy and will probably want to end his career in socal.
* the dodgers, being the logical choice base on their inconsistent production from LF and coming off a dissapointing season, depo and mccourt will have to get a big FA to win back some of the fan base.
* the dodgers lose drieforts 13 mil contract, weavers 9 mil contract and greens 10 mil payment to the dbacks. the dodgers have plenty of money to invest in giles, who has always been very consistent with his production.

conclusion, dodgers sign giles to a 3 yr 25 mil contract. giles add stability, pop,on base and run producing ability to the dodgers who need the offense.

2005-07-12 21:01:21
277.   natepurcell
I've read back to July 3rd. Only 533 pages to go...

theres a lot of stuff there, are you going to be a regular on the prospect thread? me and canuck along with a few others are regs in there.

2005-07-12 21:08:34
278.   Fearing Blue
#276: I agree, but I think it will have to be 3 years / $35 million. The expected free agent market this offseason has very little talent and I expect there to be a lot of competition for Giles. If we don't get Giles, signing Matt Lawton to a 2-year / $12 million deal could be a good plan B.

#277: I'll try to keep up. The thread moves very quickly.

2005-07-12 21:10:07
279.   natepurcell
holy snikes 11.6 mil for brian giles from age 34-37??

that is a little too rich for even me.

2005-07-12 21:27:40
280.   Fearing Blue
After Giles, the free agent class is really thin:

Johnny Damon
Nomar Garciaparra
Ramon Hernandez
Paul Konerko
Matt Lawton
Jacque Jones

Compare that to this year where there was Beltran, Beltre, Drew, Delgado, Sexson, Glaus, Ordonez, Anderson, Garciaparra, etc. I just think the lack of available talent is going to drive up prices.

I got my free agent data from http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagent.html. The site looks sketchy, but the information seems accurate.

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