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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

July 17 Open Chat
2005-07-17 08:59
by Jon Weisman

Today's Game

Nothing profound for me to add during this brief check-in. Just have to say that when wins don't come cheap, boy are they a relief.

Comments (310)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-07-17 09:11:20
1.   Bob Timmermann
Random Dodger game callback

July 17, 1904

There were 5,717 people at the Palace of the Fans in Cincinnati to watch the visting Brooklyn team edge the Reds, 4-2. But the win was just a brief bright spot in a dismal year. Brooklyn was 30-50 and 27 ½ games out of first behind the Giants and in 6th place.

Blue laws made Sunday ball illegal in many places in 1904, but the people of Cincinnati were able to take in this game. But the Reds fans saw starter Noodles Hahn give up four runs in the third inning. Brooklyn strung together two hits, two walks, and two errors to score all of its runs. Brooklyn had just four hits on the day, all singles.

The Reds scored two runs in the sixth to cut the lead in half and were poised to go ahead with runners on and one out in the seventh and Cy Seymour, the team's leading hitter, at the plate. Seymour scorched a line drive but Brooklyn first baseman Pop Dillon managed to glove it and turn it into a double play to end the threat. Ed Poole was the winning pitcher for Brooklyn.

After a winning season in 1903, Brooklyn slid all the way to 56-97 in 1904 and finished in sixth place, 50 games behind first place New York in sixth place.

Manager Ned Hanlon made some puzzling personnel decisions before the season started. Needing a catcher, Hanlon purchased Bill Bergen from the Reds in the offseason. Bergen would play for eight seasons in Brooklyn, primarily as the first string catcher. His highest batting average in Brooklyn was .190 and he hit only one home run during that time.

Shortstop Bill Dahlen was traded to the Giants for Charlie Babb, a shortstop who hit .265 and pitcher Jack Cronin who went 12-23. Dutch Jordan took over at second base and batted .179. 21-year old third baseman Mike McCormick batted .184 in his only big league season.

Outfielder Harry Lumley was the lone highlight. The rookie outfielder led the NL with 18 triples and 9 home runs. But Lumley was not the light at the end of the tunnel for the franchise. There were still greater precipices to fall from. The Dodgers finances were in terrible shape and the New York Giants were the dominant team in the market.

Thanks to the New York Times, and Retrosheet

2005-07-17 09:38:14
2.   Fearing Blue
Minor League Update
Statistical summary format is AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters and ERA/IP/K/BB for pitchers.

Las Vegas 51s (AAA):
The 51s got pounded by Tucson 12 - 1.

Center fielder Milton Bradley made his second rehab appearance with the 51s, going 1 for 3 with a stolen base, a run scored, and a strikeout before being pulled to start the 7th (.200/.200/.200). Left fielder Todd Donovan drove in Bradley for the 51s only run. OVerall, Donovan went 1 for 4 with a double and a strikeout (.286/.364/.321). Third baseman Willy Aybar went 0 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout (.300/.365/.443). First baseman Norihiro Nakamura went 0 for 3 with a walk (.281/.343/.558).

All 12 of Tucson's runs were allowed by the starting pitcher Heath Totten. Totten lasted only 3.2 innings, allowing 14 hits (3 homeruns) and no walks with 3 strikeouts (6.32/89.2/64/22). Lefty reliever Luis Gonzalez made his first appearance with the Suns. Gonzalez pitched well, allowing 1 hit and 1 walk with 3 strikeouts over 1.1 scoreless innings (0.00/1.1/3/1). Relievers Beua Dannemiller, Mike Neu, Alfredo Gonzalez, and Franquelis Osoria each pitched a scoreless inning to complete the game. Osoria pitched a perfect 9th inning with no strikeouts (2.45/40.1/25/7).

Jacksonville Suns (AA):
The Suns lost 7 - 2 to Montgomery.

Shortstop Joel Guzman had a good night at the plate, going 2 for 4 with a double and a strikeout (.290/.355/.503). Catcher Russell Martin went 1 for 4 with a walk (.316/.441/.421). Second baseman Delwyn Young went 0 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout (.287/.339/.464). Third baseman Andy LaRoche went 1 for 4 with a walk, a run scored, and a strikeout (.329/.409/.585). First baseman James Loney went 1 for 4 (.274/.355/.391). Center fielder Justin Ruggiano went 0 for 3 with a hit-by-pitch and 2 strikeouts (.360/.429/.480). So far, Ruggiano seems to be having trouble adjusting to AA pitching as he has 10 strikeouts in just 25 at-bats. None of the Suns position players appear to be good candidates for a promotion to Las Vegas before the end of the season.

Neither of the Suns pitchers pitched well in the game, with Joel Hanrahan pitching the first 6 innings and Jonathan Broxton pitching the final 2. Starter Hanrahan allowed 5 runs (all earned) on 7 hits (1 homerun) and 1 walk with 9 strikeouts. Since dominating with Jacksonville in 2003 at 21 years old, Hanrahan has consistently struggled in both AAA and AA. If he continues his struggles, Hanrahan would be a likely candidate to be dropped from the 40-man roster after the season. Reliever Jonathan Broxton struggled in his first inning of relief, allowing 2 runs (both earned) on 3 hits (1 triple) in the 7th. In the 8th inning, Broxton allowed a two-out double, but got out of the inning without further damage. Broxton struck out 2 and walked none in his 2 innings pitched (3.52/87.0/91/28).

Vero Beach Dodgers (High-A):
The Dodgers beat Dunedin 6 - 1.

Shorstop Chin-lung Hu rejoined the starting lineup in impressive fashion. Hu went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and 2 runs scored (.284/.327/.409). Tony Abreu moved back to second base and went 1 for 4 with a run scored (.319/.346/.346). Right fielder Matt Kemp went 1 for 4 with a strikeout (.285/.322/.578). As Canuck pointed out last night, Kemp has been doing a better job of avoiding the strikeout recently, but it seems he could still use more work with Vero Beach. First baseman Cory Dunlap went 1 for 4 with a strikeout (.278/.373/.370). Left fielder Anthony Raglani went 1 for 4 with a run scored, an RBI, and a strikeout (.284/.387/.433).

Chuck Tiffany pitched a tremendous game for the Dodgers. Over 7 innings of work, Tiffany held Dunedin to 1 run (earned) on 2 hits while striking out 6 (3.36/80.1/92/28). The only downside to Tiffany's performance was that Dunedin's lone run came by way of a homerun. Tiffany has had trouble keeping the ball in the park this season, allowing 10 homeruns in 80.1 innings pitched. Beyond that, all of his peripheral statistics are extremely impressive. Reliever Casey Hoorelbeke pitched 2 scoreless innings to finish the game. Hoorelbeke allowed 2 hits and no walks with 1 strikeout (1.85/58.1/41/27). Unlike Tiffany, the only thing Hoorelbeke has done well is avoid the homerun (0 homeruns in 58.1 innings pitched).

Columbus Catfish (Low-A):
The Catfish lost to Greenville 8 - 3.

The 7 hits for the Catfish were scattered throughout the lineup, with only left fielder Lucas May getting multiple hits in the game. May went 2 for 4 with an RBI and a strikeout (.238/.274/.364). Right fielder Sergio Pedroza went 1 for 4 with a run scored and a striikeout (.333/.375/.400). Pedroza appears to be doing well adjusting to Sally League pitching, though he only has 1 extra-base hit (a double) so far in 15 at-bats. Second baseman Travis Denker had a decent night, going 1 for 3 with a walk, a run scored and a strikeout (.289/.402/.525). Third baseman Blake Dewitt contributed Columbus' only extra-base hit in the game, going 1 for 4 with a double and an RBI (.267/.315/.418).

Losing pitcher Scott Elbert was decent, but was hurt by his defense, allowing 2 unearned runs to score in the 4th after a fielding error by first baseman Daniel Batz. Over 5 innings pitched, Elbert allowed 3 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits and 3 walks with 6 strikeouts (3.30/71.0/72/37). Elbert was the Dodgers 1st round pick in the 2004 draft and the 17th pick overall. Last year, he struggled as a high school pitcher facing more mature Pioneer League competition. Coming into the season, Baseballl America ranked Elbert as the Dodgers 11th best prospect and 6th best pitching prospect. This year, at only 19 years old, Elbert has handled himself well in the Sally League, though he may move slightly down the Dodgers prospect list due to the remarkable depth of the Dodgers minor league pitching.

Ogden Raptors (Rookie):
The Raptors crushed Missoula 11 - 3.

Everybody hits! Well, everybody but catcher Juan Apodaca that is. Apodaca went 0 for 5 with 2 strikeouts (.316/.342/.645) while his teammates managed 9 hits and 7 walks. Third baseman Russell Mitchell had a great night, going 2 for 3 with a double, a walk, 2 runs scored, an RBI (.333/.366/.657). Shortstop Juan Rivera and second baseman Jesus Soto were both back in the starting lineup after sitting out the night before. Rivera went 1 for 3 with a walk, a double, and a strikeout (.284/.370/.358). Soto went 1 for 4 with a walk, a run scored, and a strikeout (.304/.345/.480). Designated hitter David Sutherland went 1 for 4 with a walk, a run scored, and an RBI (.443/.522/.515). Unfortunately, Sutherland broke his monumental three-game extra-base hit streak. Right fielder BJ Richmond went 1 for 3 with a walk, a run scored, 2 RBIs, and a strikeout (.315/.400/.452). Richmond was drafted in the 7th round of the 2004 draft out of Southern Methodist College. After struggling with Ogden last year, Richmond is repeating the Pioneer League at 21 years old. Center fielder Adam Godwin went 1 for 3 with a triple, a sacrifice fly, 2 runs scored and 3 RBIs (.300/.356/.400). The performance raised Godwin's batting average to .300 for the first time this season.

Starting pitcher Mario Alvarez pitched very well, allowing just 1 run (earned) on 1 hit and a walk with 4 strikeouts (4.38/12.1/12/3). Alvarez, a 21 year old right-hander, was pulled with 2 outs in the 6th inning and one man on. David Pfeiffer came on in relief and pitched 3.1 innings to finish the game. Pfeiffer took care of the only batter he faced in the 6th, but allowed 2 runs (both earned) on 3 hits, no walks, and 4 strikeouts over his final 3 innings (6.75/20.0/15/6). Pfeiffer, a 19 ear old left-hander, was drafted in the 14th round of the 2003 draft, but did not pitch in the Dodgers system until last year. In 2004, Pfeiffer pitched well for the GCL Dodgers but struggled with Ogden.

GCL Dodgers (Rookie):
The Dodgers beat the GCL Mets 6 - 2.

Right fielder Jesus Mora had a perfect night at the plate, going 3 for 3 with a walk, 2 runs scored, an an RBI (.314/.386/.412). Mora was signed by the Dodgers as an amateur free agent in 2002. Last year was his first professional season and he struggled with the GCL Dodgers, only managing a .717 OPS. Center fielder Jeremy Brown also had a good night at the plate, going 2 for 4 with a homerun, 2 RBIs, and a strikeout (.286/.405/.371). In 35 at-bats with the Dodgers, Brown has demonstrated great plate discipline (5 walks an 7 strikeouts), but very little power (ISOp of .085). Shorstop Ivan DeJesus went 1 for 4 with a run scored (.306/.338/.371). Third baseman Eduardo Perez went 1 for 3 with a double (.315/.403/.444). Designated-hitter Josh Bell went 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored (.299/.347/.418).

Everybody pitches! Greg Miller started the game for his 4th rehab appearance. Miller pitched 3 perfect innings with 6 strikeouts (2.25/12/14/4). Hopefully, after this performance, Miller's next start will be at a higher level in the Dodgers farm system (perhaps Vero Beach). Jumbo Diaz pitched an inning of relief, allowing a solo homerun while striking out 1 (4.50/2/2/0). Josh Wall got the win with 2 scoreless / hitless innings of relief. Wall allowed 2 walks while striking out 2 (3.60/5.0/4/3). Reliever Eduardo Quintana pitched 1.2 innings, allowing 1 run (earned) on 3 hits with 1 strikeout (2.51/14.1/14/10). Wilfredo Diaz was called on just to get the last out of the 8th (3.00/9.0/8/4). Finally, Miguel Ramirez pitched a scoreless 9th with 1 walk and 1 strikeout to finish the game (1.74/10.1/10/2).

2005-07-17 09:58:52
3.   Bob Timmermann
Observation from yesterday's game:

When Jason Phillips was at bat in the 9th inning in a tie game with two outs, Hee-Seop Choi was in the on deck circle.



There was no possible way for him to bat in the inning. Do players just not realize this? Are they supposed to be there so they can tell the player coming into home whether or not to slide in case of a close play?
Not likely.

I think they just forget.

2005-07-17 10:04:51
4.   db1022
I think it's part of the rules. You have to have someone in the on-deck circle.

They mention it at times when the on-deck hitter affects the other team's strategy (pinch hitters and such).

2005-07-17 10:06:28
5.   db1022
Fearing - Just saw Adam Dunn make a sensational catch on Web Gems just now. I think that puts to rest any talk of Dunn being a poor fielder ;-)
2005-07-17 10:13:49
6.   Bob Timmermann
But still why? The point of the rule of having someone in the ondeck circle is so that managers have to tip their hands about who will bat next. And to make pitchers come out earlier.

But what sort of strategy would be affected?

I was thinking that if the game had gone to extras, the Dodgers would have had the upper hand with better relievers available. Which was sort of scary.

2005-07-17 10:18:47
7.   db1022
Who knows, considering the hitter isn't committed until he approaches the plate.

The times I've seen it impact strategy is when you have a mildly injured superstar who is (un)available. Sending him out to the ondeck circle can force opposing managers to plan to face a big bopper as opposed to a popgun.

2005-07-17 10:24:26
8.   CanuckDodger
Dunn is a VERY bad fielder. Very bad fielders can make a good play once in a while. Ask Derek Jeter. A great play at short, or a great catch in the outfield, makes the highlights on ESPN, but groundballs missed or flyballs that drop in for hits when good fielders could have turned those into outs do not make the highlights.
2005-07-17 10:29:47
9.   db1022
#8 - Although they are annoying and make me feel like I'm a 14-year old girl writing notes in class, these little emoticons are the simplest way to invoke a sense of emotion to these otherwise monotone posts.

In this example, my post #5 has a winky-face at the end ( ;-) ). This is intended to accent the post with a tongue-in-cheek tone. Therefore the content of the post should not be taken at face value, rather with the intended amount of sarcasm.

Dunn is a bad fielder. He can still mash though.

2005-07-17 10:34:25
10.   Bob Timmermann
You can always try the mock HTML tags.

Adam Dunn made a great play!

2005-07-17 10:35:44
11.   CanuckDodger
THAT was an emoticon? A semi-colon and a dash in parentheses?
2005-07-17 10:36:44
12.   Benaiah
I know this is a baseball blog but this is just so annoying:

The fact that Rockstar could be in trouble because people change the game after it is sold is amazing to me. I feel like this is the equivalent of putting a brown paper bag around people magazine because ten year olds could draw nipples on the women with a marker.

2005-07-17 10:36:53
13.   db1022
2005-07-17 11:22:53
14.   Bob Timmermann
The umpire ruled that db1022 didn't go all the way around on his emoticon.

Ball three!

2005-07-17 11:42:49
15.   overkill94
To follow up on yesterday's rumor of us trading for Takatsu, apparently it's either the Giants or D-Backs who are interested in him. If the giants give up more of their top prospects to get a mediocre reliever I might just die of laughter.
2005-07-17 11:43:31
16.   Borchard504

Coincidence or Trend? lol - trust a Cincy local, the dude does not posses tools of defense. I am sure Reds mgmt was stoked Dunn was on 'webgems', because it only happens once in a blue moon.

2005-07-17 11:54:12
17.   dzzrtRatt
"...when wins don't come cheap, boy are they a relief."

Amen. Attended the game, and stayed til the end because I was enjoying the day. I wouldn't have bet a nickel on the Dodgers winning this game after they'd been shut out on one hit from the fourth inning until two outs into the ninth. Not even after Saenz's walk and Robles' hit, because Izzy was coming up and he'd done nothing at the plate all day. But boy was it satisfying when it all went down. There is nothing like it in spectator sports. Baseball is it, man.

2005-07-17 11:58:58
18.   db1022
#16 - The discussion in here has been whether he is so bad that he shouldn't be out there at all and instead concentrate on 1B.

If the Dodgers do pick him up, the odd man out would be Choi or Werth, depending.

2005-07-17 12:07:10
19.   Steve
Who cares about Adam Dunn's defense?
2005-07-17 12:19:13
20.   dzzrtRatt
re #18

...the odd man out would be Choi or Werth...

Both of them, if the Dodgers continue playing Kent at first and/or playing Perez in left and moving Dunn to first.

2005-07-17 12:23:03
21.   db1022
#20 - If Depo decides that he wants another big bat, one of the trio of Werth, Perez, or Choi is out of a starting job next year.

Perez would appear to have the most trade value, but he's also the most versatile defensively. I'd like to see a new LF, with Werth and Ledee as a L/R 4th OFer.

2005-07-17 12:39:13
22.   Steelyeri
I was on the road listening to the road listening to the game yesterday. The senario was exciting. Bottom of the ninth two outs and the dodgers were mounting a comeback. Then I remembered that izzy was coming up. I then turned off the radio because I knew we were going to lose. First time in a long time that a break goes our way. No injury pun intended. If I would have left it on and izzy proceeded to strike out like I thought he would, I would have gone nuts. That't what this crazy season has done to me.
2005-07-17 12:42:36
23.   Bob Timmermann
And today's cleanup man for the Dodgers is....

Right fielder Ricky Ledee!




2005-07-17 12:53:14
24.   coachjpark
Ricky Ledee must be really confused right now.
2005-07-17 12:55:34
25.   Rich Lederer
That was an enjoyable interview Vinny conducted with Jim Tracy and Felipe Alou on the pre-game show. The Barry Bonds sarcastic short flick was a bit over the top.
2005-07-17 13:00:26
26.   Benaiah
23 - The lineup has all of the right people in it (besides Perez) but the order is obviously a little off. I will give Tracy a B+ for effort (with his handicap that is an A+).
My lineup:
Repko (moved behind Izzy for L/R throughout)
2005-07-17 13:11:33
27.   Jim Hitchcock
12 - Leave Grand Theft Auto alone! Gawd, I hate it when politicians make these stupid kind of stunts, no matter what the political affiliation.

BTW, happened to watch Grand Theft Parsons on Showtime last night. As a Gram Parsons fan who has long been tickled by the story of his body snatching (and journey to Joshua Tree for cremation), it was great.

2005-07-17 13:15:44
28.   Jim Hitchcock
Nice play, Repko!
2005-07-17 13:16:13
29.   Benaiah
27 - What I don't understand is, if the kid is smart enough to download this patch, install it on the playstation and then watch it, surely they are smart enough to find other porn on the internet. 80% of the internet seems to be porn anyway, not to mention peer to peer downloaders. This is one of those non-issues that somehow makes its way into the news and then everyone starts grandstanding.
2005-07-17 13:24:37
30.   dzzrtRatt
Re #21

When I think about losing young players, I try to imagine who would "come back to haunt us," which is to be avoided. The ultimate "come back to haunt us" is Pedro Martinez. Paul Konerko is up there. Todd Hollandsworth, seldom. No one really remembers he was rookie of the year for us.

-Chances Werth will "come back to haunt us": 5 percent. He's a journeyman in the making, a poor man's Hollandsworth.

-Chances Choi will "come back to haunt us": 50 percent. His career will have its moments, but we'd eventually forget he was here.

-Chances Antonio Perez will "come back to haunt us": 70 percent. He's consistently risen to the occasion, and has that great bat speed. With experience, I think he could be very good.

2005-07-17 13:25:10
31.   Jim Hitchcock
29 - Absolutely right on all accounts. Politicians make these grand pronouncements, knowing full well it will have no effect, so they can say to a small band of constituents `See, I tried!'. What a joke.

Don't mean to offend anybody, but it's kind of like the Pope (or others) decrying the Harry Potter books because they speak of `wizards and demons'. Krikey, back the heck off! At least the kids are reading!

2005-07-17 13:30:50
32.   Benaiah
Wow Repko has a cannon. I know he didn't catch him, but still that was a great throw.
2005-07-17 13:32:40
33.   dzzrtRatt
Re #21

When I think about losing young players, I try to imagine who would "come back to haunt us," which is to be avoided. The ultimate "come back to haunt us" is Pedro Martinez. Paul Konerko is up there. Todd Hollandsworth, seldom. No one really remembers he was rookie of the year for us.

Werth will not come back to haunt us. Choi--possibly. Perez--more likely. If the choice is those three, I hope they keep Perez.

2005-07-17 13:33:26
34.   dzzrtRatt
Sorry for the parallel posts. Didn't think the first one made it.
2005-07-17 13:33:38
35.   Johnson
What a great call by Alou. Most managers are afraid to use the Un-Double-Steal Lay-Down-In-The-Basepaths play these days.
2005-07-17 13:35:35
36.   Benaiah
30 - I think the ones who would haunt us are the youngins in Jacksonville. Those three all have some promise, but more than likely will never be All-Stars. Some of those guys will be stars one day.
2005-07-17 13:35:54
37.   Fearing Blue
#30: I disagree with your assessments of Choi and Perez though you're probably accurate with Werth. Everthing about Choi's career screams the opportunity for breakout in a huge way. If he leaves the Dodgers and picks up with a team that actually plays him on a daily basis, he could very easily OPS .850+ with 30-35 HRs annually. Perez on the other hand hasn't shown that much potential in his minor league career, is not even a full year younger than Choi, and his performance this year is more luck than skill. He could be a better than average second baseman, but it's unlikely he would come back to haunt us.
2005-07-17 13:38:26
38.   Fearing Blue
#36: Good point, Benaiah. At least a few of our prospects will be perennial All-Stars. It's unfortunate that we don't know for sure which ones :).

#37: The other reason Choi has the potential to seem a lot worse is that our best first base prospect, James Loney, is likely never going to hit for that kind of production. On the other hand, we have multiple guys in our farm system who will likely out-produce Antonio Perez.

2005-07-17 13:41:13
39.   overkill94
Re 37:

You're correct in your assessment that Choi has the potential to come back to haunt us more than Perez, but just from watching both players all year, I'd still put my money on Perez having a better career. Choi's swing just has so many holes that I feel they'd have to start from scratch to tap his potential. Perez has a great line drive swing which won't give him perennial 20 HR power, but should be good for a .300+ average with lots of doubles plus his stolen base potential to boot.

2005-07-17 13:41:29
40.   fanerman
Choi will come back to haunt us for sure. I don't see any point in trading him unless it's to Boston, Oakland, or Toronto. I just get the feeling the other GM's just don't value him highly. This means, we probably wouldn't get much value from him, not the value he's really worth at least.

I don't see any situation where we would win with us letting go of him. And the only situation where we would win keeping him is if we play him. So, I say (of course), just play him Tracy...

2005-07-17 13:42:04
41.   Benaiah
Nice to see Lowe working in the pen. Maybe he figured out that something was wrong.

Choi with a beast of a walk. He has settled down lately and gotten on base alot. Unfortunately, he is a Two True outcomes hitter since the middle of June. I would love to see the occasional dinger out of him.

2005-07-17 13:43:33
42.   Benaiah
Bad luck hit by Werth. That was basically an IF fly, good thing that it worked out.
2005-07-17 13:43:45
43.   Fearing Blue
Matt Kemp had a huge game for Vero Beach today. He went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and a homerun raising his average to .291.
2005-07-17 13:45:33
44.   overkill94
Primary blame in that inning for not capitalizing on the lead-off doubles goes to...Jason Phillips. Gotta get that runner over with no outs. He sure strikes out a lot for a guy that's not supposed to strike out a lot.
2005-07-17 13:48:02
45.   Marty
27. Jim, I'm enjoying GTA San Andreas right now...
2005-07-17 13:49:02
46.   Benaiah
45 - Hopefully the game and not the hot coffee plugin.
2005-07-17 13:49:41
47.   Fearing Blue
#39: Here's a comparison of Choi and Perez's strike out %-ages:

Perez's K%: 20.3%
Choi's K%: 20.9%
Dunn's K%: 26.2%

I'm trying to understand how all of these "holes" in Choi's swing correspond into actual production.

Perez projects to have a lower career batting average than Choi because he strikes out about the same amount of the time and he doesn't get to boost his average by hitting the ball where the fielders can't catch them. Also, comparing their line drive swings, here are Choi and Perez's line drive %-ages from Hardball Times:

Choi's LD%: 27.3%
Perez's LD%: 25.4%

2005-07-17 13:50:42
48.   Marty
46. Naw, I'm too busy car-jacking and killing gang members to stop for sex.
2005-07-17 13:50:52
49.   Benaiah
Nice play Choi! I guess he figured he might as well catch it and make the out rather than limbo again. Should he have gotten out of the way on that play or did he do the right thing to go back to first?
2005-07-17 13:50:57
50.   Steve
Red Sox Get:
Mike Lowell
AJ Burnett

Florida gets:
Bronson Arroyo
Kelly Shoppach
Sean Bouroughs

SD gets:
Abe Alverez

How did San Diego get Abe Alvarez out of Sean Burroughs? They must be writing a check to the Red Sox.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-07-17 13:52:02
51.   Fearing Blue
#47: I threw in Dunn's strikeout percentage to get Steve riled up :). Dunn would very likely hit for a lower average than Choi in Dodger Stadium.
2005-07-17 13:52:55
52.   Benaiah
I have never played San Andreas, but mostly because I know what an addicting game GTA is. I basically blacked out for two weeks my Freshman year with Vice City. I didn't go to class, I didn't go to work. I would just wake up and play all day. Fortunately after a couple of weeks of Snood (video game methadone) I was free and clear.
2005-07-17 13:53:37
53.   Fearing Blue
#50: Link?
2005-07-17 13:54:29
54.   Marty
I liked GTA III much better than Vice City. San Andreas is looking like it's very good. But I'm not even 20% through it yet.
2005-07-17 13:54:52
55.   Marty
50. Steve, did that trade really happen?
2005-07-17 13:55:14
56.   Steve
You guys keep talking about Adam Dunn's batting average and defense. That's like talking about Pamela Anderson's brain.
2005-07-17 13:56:04
57.   Jim Hitchcock
Still stuck in Vice City, Marty, running down the citizenry. You might want to check for patches (no, not those patches :) at gamecopyworld.
2005-07-17 13:57:03
58.   dzzrtRatt

I could be convinced that Choi will break out one day, but I'm sticking to my guns on Perez. If that guy is merely lucky, he's been pretty consistently lucky during each of his stints with the major league team.

It is probably Old Thinking, but I love Perez's bat speed. Guys with those long, lazy swings like Choi's seem more likely to go into long slumps when that rotating lumber machine gets out of adjustment.

2005-07-17 13:57:03
59.   Fearing Blue
#50: Abe Alvarez's numbers this year don't look that good, but I guess he's only 22 years old and left-handed which both always seem to help.

Alvarez (AAA): 4.67 ERA with 73 Ks, 23 BBs, and 10 HRs in 94.1 IP.

2005-07-17 13:58:11
60.   Benaiah
50 - What is so great about Alverez. His peripherals and ERA don't exactly blow me away.

I can't believe that the Marlins made this trade. Arroyo is locked up for longer, and Shoppach is a good prospect, but this is ridiculous. I guess it frees up salary and Lowell was disappointing this year, but they downgraded at two spots. If this is an example of the horrible "seller's market" than I think the Dodgers should hold on, if AJ is worth Arroyo than Weaver is worth what? Wakefield?

2005-07-17 13:58:14
61.   Steve
They are talking about it over on Primer. It is a radio report from ESPN and Fox Sports Florida.

Florida loses big in that deal (again). At least Ed Wade will have a place to land. I have no idea how San Diego got involved, but it is approaching Beane-level genius if he can turn Sean Burroughs into anything even approaching useful.

2005-07-17 14:00:08
62.   Benaiah
A sidenote, Robles is hitting 2/9 with zero BB since Izzy came back. Small numbers obviously, but I wonder if he is spooked or something. More likely I should probably not worry about 2.5 games worth of production.
2005-07-17 14:00:38
63.   Vishal
i believe the answer to the AFLAC trivia question is who cares?
2005-07-17 14:03:40
64.   Steve
Hope is a curse
2005-07-17 14:04:20
65.   Rich Lederer
Scully is obviously not a fisherman.
2005-07-17 14:06:53
66.   overkill94
I at least like this deal for Florida better than what was on the table from Baltimore (Penn, Julio, and Bigbie). Arroyo is only a small step below Burnett considering Burnett got to play in a pitcher's park and Arroyo in a hitter's park facing tough offenses. Plus, Lowell has looked completely lost at the plate this year and is very expensive. Getting Shoppach gives them a catcher of the future since our old friend Paulie is getting a bit old for a catcher. I'm not sure Burroughs will even start since there was talk of moving Cabrera back to 3B and calling up their uber-OF prospect Jeremy Hermida.

Bottom line is that Burnett was not going to be a Marlin next year so the Marlins had to get something for him.

2005-07-17 14:07:09
67.   Benaiah
Man, I thought Florida could have gotten something big for AJ. At least a premier prospect or two. They got nothing that will help this year, and without Lowell they might be hurting next year too. That guy Shoppach isn't even one of the 10 best 3B prospects in the game. He wasn't a top 20 Red Sox prospect for John Sickles before this year (though he probably would be a top 20 now), crazy trade.
2005-07-17 14:07:48
68.   ddger
Weaver is on his way to pitching another QS but no offensive support. I'm starting to feel sorry for the guy.
2005-07-17 14:08:28
69.   Fearing Blue
#58: So then I assume by that same rationale you're against trading for Dunn?

Guess which Dodgers have the four highest BABIPs amongst players with more than 40 at-bats.

#1: Antonio Perez - .405 BABIP
#2: Oscar Robles - .388 BABIP
#3: Ricky Ledee - .368 BABIP
#4: Paul Bako - .357 BABIP

If you guessed the four Dodgers who have exceeded all reasonable expectations of their performance, you would be right! Place your bets on how long until the top three fall back to earth.

In 2003, Perez posted a .248 batting average in 125 at-bats with essentially all the same peripheral statistics K/AB, BB/AB, and HR/AB. His line drive %-age may have gone up a little, but the primary difference is luck. Perez strikes out way too often to be a true .300 hitter.

2005-07-17 14:09:30
70.   Benaiah
By 3B I mean C. He might be a top 10 C prospect given his power. I still don't like the trade. Consider how much teams paid for mediocre talent like Kip Wells and V Zambrano last year.
2005-07-17 14:10:18
71.   Jim Hitchcock
Dang. Missed it by [ ] much.
2005-07-17 14:12:26
72.   ddger
Is Quality Start overrated? I really would like to see another category called "Excellent Start" where a pitcher pitches 7 or more innings and gives up 2 or less runs.
2005-07-17 14:13:49
73.   overkill94
Another leadoff double wasted, sweet.
2005-07-17 14:14:04
74.   Benaiah
72 - I thought you already talked about the Dominant Start stat (7IP 1 or 0 ER). QS are overrated, but they should be a baseline. If your pitchers very rarely throw anything but QS then you should be in great shape.
2005-07-17 14:14:17
75.   Vishal
72. i believe someone came up with something like that they called "dominant start".

strike 3 to choi was low.

2005-07-17 14:14:47
76.   Fearing Blue
#70: It sounds like it's primarily a salary dump for the Marlins. As somone already suggested, this allows the Marlins to move Cabrera back to 3B, his original position, and bring up Jeremy Hermida in the outfield. Additionally, Bronson Arroyo gives them a relatively inexpensive above-average starting pitcher for a few years, whereas they would have lost Burnett in the offseason.
2005-07-17 14:15:05
77.   Johnson
#70 Benaiah
By Kip Wells did you mean Kris Benson? Wells didn't move last year.
2005-07-17 14:16:57
78.   overkill94
Re 69:

Call me old-fashioned (for once), but sometimes what you see should superceded the numbers. A good example is that some people were saying that Izturis has just been unlucky lately because his BABIP is low, but from watching the games he's just not making good contact at all. Conversely, Perez seems to make hard contact every time he doesn't strike out, so to me it makes sense that a lot of those balls would fall for hits.

2005-07-17 14:17:30
79.   Johnson
#75 Vishal
I agree that the strike zone appears to be exceedingly large, both up and down when we're at the plate. Home plate ump is a temporary replacement and is the guy who blew the Phillips check-swing call last night.


2005-07-17 14:17:46
80.   ddger
One thing that bothers me about Quality Start is that 6 innings with 3 runs is 4.50 ERA which is average ERA. Why is this called a quality when it just seems like average to me. I guess this is the state of pitching these days. Maybe if we ever get better pitching in the future, they might have to change the category. When did they start keeping Quality Start stats?
2005-07-17 14:19:32
81.   Johnson
#69, 78
I believe that BABIP is considered to be a "luck" stat as applies to pitchers, not to hitters. Players who make harder contact should have higher BABIPs.
2005-07-17 14:21:42
82.   Vishal
81, 78

i'm no expert, but i believe that BABIP is generally correlated with line drive percentage in order to determine how lucky a hitter is. of course it's not an exact science determining what counts as a line drive, but i think it's supposed to give you a good idea about how lucky a hitter is.

2005-07-17 14:22:26
83.   ddger
Since baseball is game of statistics, one other stat I wish they would keep is "advancing runners" average not just batting average with runners on.
2005-07-17 14:24:15
84.   Fearing Blue
#78: Actually, over the entire season, Izturis' BABIP of .302 is probably about where it should be, though perhaps a little low. Players look good when their hits are falling in and they don't look good otherwise.
2005-07-17 14:24:36
85.   overkill94
A stat that I'd like to see a stat that measures how often a player makes hard contact, something like the Hard Hit Index (HHI). This could help predict players about to come out of a slump or players who are just plain getting lucky. It would be a good stat for pitchers as well. Seems to have more logical practicality than BABIP.
2005-07-17 14:25:27
86.   Benaiah
By the way, Weaver's ERA has gone down every start since May 24 when it peaked at 5.97. Since then, he has given up 19 ER in 59.1 IP (20 ER in 64.1 counting today) for a 2.88 ERA (2.80 counting today). I really do like Weaver, both years he has started slow, but when he gets in his groove he is a very solid #3.
2005-07-17 14:26:05
87.   Fearing Blue
#82: That's correct. The three statistics that Hardball Times have shown are the most highly correlated to BABIP are LD%, FB%, and K%. But, the impacts of those are still relatively small, so anytime a hitter has a BABIP of .400 you can pretty much guarantee it's luck.
2005-07-17 14:26:43
88.   Steve
Repko hacks at Ball 4 because Werth is going.
2005-07-17 14:27:21
89.   ddger
86. Maybe we would have been better off signing Weaver instead of Lowe but I think it's too late.
2005-07-17 14:28:41
90.   Fearing Blue
#85: Take a look at the statistics on Line drive percentage is pretty close to that. Hardball Times also has the ratio of HRs / Flyballs, which would also give some idea of how hard flyballs are being hit.
2005-07-17 14:29:01
91.   Benaiah
88 - Awful hit and run. I hate bunting but it would have been better than that, where they nearly got a DP based on Tracy's call.
2005-07-17 14:29:16
92.   regfairfield
80 - Rob Neyer just wrote an article about the very subject.

It came down to several things:
1. You can use the same argument against several stats. Wins are severally flawed, saves can come from up to 6 runs up in the ninth with 2 out, a run can come from reaching on a fielders choice then scoring on a home run, etc.

2. The cumulative ERA for quality starts this year is 2.03, far from the 4.5 that is the bear minimum

Basically, while a quality start isn't a perfect stat, it is a better stat than most traditionally pitching stats.

2005-07-17 14:29:59
93.   Fearing Blue
#88: Perhaps, though Repko seems to swing at a lot of bad pitches without anyone on base.
2005-07-17 14:30:25
94.   Jim Hitchcock
2005-07-17 14:30:29
95.   regfairfield
I really want to know how often sending the runner on 3-2 with one out succeeds, because it seems like it ends in a strike 'em out, throw 'em out double play for us about 85% of the time.
2005-07-17 14:32:44
96.   Steve
95 -- Hennessey let Werth get a tremendous jump. Their fans are probably screaming like we do when we watch Lowe.

As soon as I start believing in Robles, he'll go 2 for 100. It happened with Izturis. So I'll just continue to be skeptical.

2005-07-17 14:32:51
97.   Fearing Blue
That is the farthest Robles has ever hit the ball.
2005-07-17 14:33:12
98.   ddger
How long can Robles continue this? I remember Izzy hitting .350 few months ago before free falling down to .269. Is this a sign of things to come.
2005-07-17 14:34:24
99.   Benaiah

"This team is without two-third of its starting outfield, the left side of its infield and its closer, and its best starting pitcher is just now off the DL after missing more than two months. It's a lost season in Chavez Ravine, and the rest of the year needs to be viewed as prep work for '06."

You got to love the fact that this journalist who makes a power ranking, doesn't know anything about the Dodgers. I am just guessing but he got most of that info second hand.

2005-07-17 14:35:20
100.   Steve
Just to show that anything can happen:

- M. Olivo singled to left center

- M. Olivo stole second, M. Olivo to third on S. Fasano's throwing error

I wouldn't have put money on either event happening. That they happened consecutively, well, makes me a bit nervous.

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2005-07-17 14:35:21
101.   Vishal
i think izturis' freefall was abetted by his bum hamstring. if robles is healthy, even if he starts to regress a little, there's no reason he should freefall. maybe he'll hit .260 or .280 for a month and regress to .300
2005-07-17 14:35:45
102.   Fearing Blue
#98: Yes. Tracy will put Perez and Robles in significant roles and then we'll have to watch them plummet to .265 while both give up free outs at the top of our order. The good news is that at least Robles and Perez take walks.
2005-07-17 14:37:12
103.   Steve
Can't say that Brad Penny is the best starter, because it breaks the "Beautiful Myth" that has now enveloped the history of the Florida trade.
2005-07-17 14:39:01
104.   Jim Hitchcock
I don't know, Vishal...Izzy was slumping a good five weeks before the hammy.
2005-07-17 14:42:00
105.   Vishal
i thought he had a sore hamstring for several weeks before he went on the DL, no?
2005-07-17 14:42:55
106.   ddger
105. Agree. I don't think Izzy is a .300 hitter for a whole season. It was just that he started out like a house on fire and melted down so fast that it was so noticible. If Izzy ended up hitting .270 without having such up and down season, we would have been pleased.
2005-07-17 14:44:45
107.   Fearing Blue
#103: I remember reading about The Trade last year and how great it was for Florida because they only had to trade their 5th starter. I think at the time Ismael Valdez was pitching for them :).
2005-07-17 14:44:55
108.   Bob Timmermann
Oh no! Mike Matheny with the bases juiced!

This is a classic situation for a Weaver meltdown!

2005-07-17 14:46:00
109.   Jim Hitchcock
105 - Could have. I just don't recall.
2005-07-17 14:46:08
110.   Steve
And now an 0-2 count! Right where we want them!
2005-07-17 14:46:16
111.   Benaiah
108 - Have faith, it is a chance to prove his mettle.
2005-07-17 14:46:38
112.   Fearing Blue
#106: I agree as well. Izturis is a .275 - .285 hitter which is fine for a defensively oriented shorstop. I just wish Tracy would bat him 8th where he belongs.
2005-07-17 14:47:39
113.   Steve
Weaver does not groove one! I repeat! Weaver does not groove one!
2005-07-17 14:49:04
114.   Bob Timmermann
In "Seinfeld", there was a brand of whiskey that the group drank called Hennessey's. Since I don't drink, is that a real product or did they make up the name?
2005-07-17 14:49:10
115.   ddger
FB, since we traded Roberts last year, don't really have a leadoff hitter this year. Who would be our best candidate?
2005-07-17 14:49:28
116.   dzzrtRatt
No, I'm not sold on the Dunn trade. Too many cats sniffing around that kitty. We'd have to overpay for him, and then he'd drive us crazy by being what he is--a one dimensional player.

I'd rather try to entice Texas into overpaying for a couple of our pitchers, Jeff Weaver or Odalis Perez plus Gio Carrara or Duaner Sanchez, in exchange for one of their hard-hitting infielders.

The way Weaver is pitching lately, we can ask a lot for him, even as a rental. Texas will fall out of contention without another strong starter.

2005-07-17 14:50:00
117.   ddger
Drew would have been great leadoff hitter except that he is getting paid as #3 hitter.
2005-07-17 14:50:18
118.   Vishal
hennessey is a brand of cognac, i believe.
2005-07-17 14:52:22
119.   ddger
116. Can we trade Perez and resign Weaver with Perez's salary. But we could use at least 1 LH starter. That is the only reason for keeping Perez.
2005-07-17 14:53:29
120.   adg
According to Wikipedia:

"The largest single consumer of Hennessy cognac in the world is North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il."

2005-07-17 14:53:35
121.   ddger
118. He is pitching like a fine cognac today.
2005-07-17 14:54:48
122.   Steve
120 -- while he plays Grand Theft Auto?
2005-07-17 14:55:22
123.   adg
122 -- I would assume so.
2005-07-17 14:56:18
124.   Vishal
i would LOVE to get a michael young or hank blalock.
2005-07-17 14:56:42
125.   Jim Hitchcock
That must be what makes his hair stand straight up.
2005-07-17 14:56:56
126.   ddger
124. Only in our dreams?
2005-07-17 14:57:08
127.   adg
Other interesting factiods about Hennessy:

Combining Hennessy with Red Bull energy drink forms Crunk juice.

In 1987 merged with fashion house Louis Vuitton to create what is now the world's largest luxury goods business: LVMH.

2005-07-17 14:57:33
128.   ddger
125. I think he has a perm.
2005-07-17 14:57:38
129.   Vishal
nice looking swing by choi, but it wasn't far enough.
2005-07-17 14:57:56
130.   Jim Hitchcock
Werth is about to redeem himself. I hope.
2005-07-17 14:58:32
131.   Steve
When you combine Hennessey and Choi, you get a lazy fly ball to center.
2005-07-17 14:59:13
132.   Bob Timmermann
So the cognac is Hennessy while the pitcher is Hennessey?
2005-07-17 14:59:34
133.   Jim Hitchcock

127 - Crunk juice? Wow!

2005-07-17 14:59:35
134.   ddger
Another QS by Giant starter this series. All 4 games have been QS. We're turning around their pitching staff.
2005-07-17 15:00:12
135.   Vishal
132. yes.
2005-07-17 15:00:52
136.   Jim Hitchcock
The nope was directed at 130, of course.
2005-07-17 15:02:19
137.   Bob Timmermann
3 HRs allowed to pitchers this year by Weaver ....
2005-07-17 15:02:40
138.   Fearing Blue
#115/117: Antonio Perez or Oscar Robles would be fine as leadoff hitters. All you need is someone who gets on base and it's nice that both of them take walks. Drew would be wasting a lot of his ability as a leadoff hitter.
2005-07-17 15:04:23
139.   Steve
At least he saved the two strike give in for the pitcher with nobody on, insted of giving it to Matheny.
2005-07-17 15:04:33
140.   Benaiah
Bob, they drink Hennegans not Hennesey. I think it is a Scotch not a cognac.
2005-07-17 15:05:28
141.   Bob Timmermann
Thank you! I was blurring reality with TV.

Which I do most of the time.

2005-07-17 15:05:50
142.   adg
Bat for Weaver or not in the bottom half? (Assuming he gets out unscathed in the top.)
2005-07-17 15:07:05
143.   ddger
Every Weaver win drives up his price but increases his trade value.
2005-07-17 15:08:32
144.   Benaiah
Nice a DS for Weaver, though I wish that it weren't accompanied by a DS by the other team too.
2005-07-17 15:08:35
145.   Fearing Blue
Wow. This is a stunning quote about Felix Pie from a Phil Rogers ESPN article.

"He's an exciting player, a really exciting player," West Tenn manager Bobby Dickerson said. "He loves to win. That's the biggest thing I've seen. He really enjoys winning ball games, and he always wins. Every team he's been on has made the playoffs, and three won championships."

So, he's good because he likes winning? That's nice.

2005-07-17 15:09:18
146.   Langhorne
Hennessy's is a line of fine cognac. And any bartender worth a damn cringes when asked to mix it with anything.
2005-07-17 15:09:18
147.   bokonon42
Wasn't the Seinfeld scotch "Hennigans"?
2005-07-17 15:10:21
148.   Steve
I like winning. Sign me up!
2005-07-17 15:10:34
149.   bokonon42
Sorry; should have refreshed before posting.
2005-07-17 15:11:05
150.   ddger
Weaver's really picked up his pitching since Penny signed. He must have awoke and realized that this is his contract year.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2005-07-17 15:11:21
151.   Benaiah
141 - No prob, I was watching a couple of episodes earlier, you gotta love that show.
2005-07-17 15:12:27
152.   dzzrtRatt
I don't know why getting a Blalock or Young for Weaver is a dream. It would be a classic case of a team trading from its strength to address a weakness. They will miss the home runs a lot less than the QS's.

We could throw in Robles if they send Blalock. Or Choi if they'll send Texiera.

2005-07-17 15:14:37
153.   ddger
Izzy has 2 game hitting streak now.
2005-07-17 15:14:39
154.   dzzrtRatt
Iz Izzy Back?
2005-07-17 15:14:50
155.   Fearing Blue
How did Robles not score on that? Shouldn't he have been running on contact with 2 outs?
2005-07-17 15:15:45
156.   Steve
Let us not encourage the windmill. The windmill is encouraged enough on its own.
2005-07-17 15:16:37
157.   Benaiah
150 - The sad thing is that he has gotten 3 wins and 3 losses since he turned his game on.
2005-07-17 15:16:53
158.   Jim Hitchcock
146 - Not much of a drinker, but even I know that :)
2005-07-17 15:16:54
159.   ddger
Is Hoffman coaching at 3rd today?
2005-07-17 15:17:07
160.   Fearing Blue
#156: Good point. I just thought Robles had better wheels than that. It looked like Izturis got to second basee before Robles got to third.
2005-07-17 15:17:49
161.   ddger
157. I know but at least he's pitching .500. Lot better than Lowe's 0-6.
2005-07-17 15:18:44
162.   dzzrtRatt
ah damn it. Wanted Weaver to get that win for a change.
2005-07-17 15:18:50
163.   Fearing Blue
2005-07-17 15:20:19
164.   Steve
Robles was toast at home if he goes.
2005-07-17 15:20:43
165.   ddger
No win for Weaver. Saved Depo some money if he is going to sign Weaver.
2005-07-17 15:21:44
166.   Fearing Blue
#164: He definitely would have been. Robles hit third base about the same time the throw got to the cutoff man.
2005-07-17 15:22:25
167.   ddger
Best case for Depo. Weaver continues to give QS and keep us in the game but doesn't pick up the win.
2005-07-17 15:23:12
168.   Fearing Blue
#163: Besides the fact that it's provably slower, the last thing we need is old man Kent diving head-first into the first base bag. Doesn't he realize that everyone else on the team is already injured?
2005-07-17 15:23:16
169.   ddger
Robles should never attempt stolen base.
2005-07-17 15:24:16
170.   Benaiah
158 - I am assuming crunk juice is a hip hop mix drink and those guys don't play by the rules... I think you can make crunk juice with kool-aid and spiced rum too, but I could be wrong.
2005-07-17 15:24:33
171.   Johnson
Mike Krukow has just explained to the Giants fans that Omar Vizquel is so good that even on a tough play like that he got Kent out by "two feet". I guess Vizquel is good enough to bend the fabric of space-time because it looked a lot more like two inches to me on the replay.
2005-07-17 15:25:10
172.   ddger
Either Kent wants to take some time off so that he won't have to play with so many minor leaguers or he wants to set an example (hustle?) to the younger players?
2005-07-17 15:26:08
173.   Fearing Blue
#171: Two inches and only because Kent started sliding about 10 feet from the bag. I don't know why it frustrates me so much, but it seemed pretty clear he would have been safe if he just ran through the bag.
2005-07-17 15:28:28
174.   Johnson
I've heard that it's faster to run through first than to slide, but I've never seen any hard data either way. Some players certainly seem to think the slide is faster - Kent being one of them. That isn't the first time I've seen Kent do that.
2005-07-17 15:28:46
175.   dzzrtRatt
Kent might've been trying to avoid a tag.
2005-07-17 15:30:08
176.   ddger
174. Agree. This happens so often. I don't think coaches tell them to slide. Probably, just instincts taking over.
2005-07-17 15:31:43
177.   dzzrtRatt
Izzy keeps the game from going down the Duane.
2005-07-17 15:31:55
178.   Vishal
and the slow rollers cancel each other out.
2005-07-17 15:32:29
179.   Benaiah
Nice DP!
2005-07-17 15:32:48
180.   Bob Timmermann
Guys who slide headfirst into first base are stuck in their ways. Roberto Alomar refused to change. I think Kenny Lofton still does it and he tore up his shoulder doing it.
2005-07-17 15:33:11
181.   ddger
Isn't Choi overdue for a homer?
2005-07-17 15:33:53
182.   ddger
Unless Tracy uses PH for Choi?
2005-07-17 15:36:49
183.   Benaiah
I am just guessing by Tracy is going to yank Choi against the lefty. The problem is that this game could go into extras and then you have Grabbo or something in. Let Choi take his swing.
2005-07-17 15:37:12
184.   Jim Hitchcock
174 - The difference is whether you have your legs to propel you those last couple of steps vs. trying to get your hands there first by going horizontal. I would vote for the first, but would agree that it's instinctual.
2005-07-17 15:39:01
185.   dzzrtRatt
No, apparently Tracy thinks Choi is overdue to leg out a bunt single.
2005-07-17 15:40:01
186.   Benaiah
Wow Choi squares up to bunt with no one on and two outs... that is insane. The guy is a slow 1B and there is no one to move over. Good call Tracy.
2005-07-17 15:40:28
187.   ddger
WOW, Tracy is letting Choi bat against LH. Maybe Lasorda`s talk with Tracy finally clicked.
2005-07-17 15:40:34
188.   coachjpark
Why do you have a guy bat cleanup and then have MIKE EDWARDS pinch-hit for him?
2005-07-17 15:41:12
189.   Benaiah
Choi bunts it to the wall!
2005-07-17 15:41:22
190.   Jim Hitchcock
Exhibit A in the Choi batting against lefties controversy...
2005-07-17 15:41:30
191.   Vishal
stop the presses!!


related story: temperatures in hell reach record low*

2005-07-17 15:41:31
192.   coachjpark
Seriously a surprise that Olmedo Saenz didn't pinch-hit for Choi.... Tracy is usually robotic in his lefty-righty moves with Choi
2005-07-17 15:42:09
193.   ddger
Did Choi earn a start against LH now?
2005-07-17 15:42:16
194.   Benaiah
188 - In fairness to Tracy, Ledee has awful splits against Lefties. I don't know about putting in Edwards in his place, but i am ok with a PH.
2005-07-17 15:42:28
195.   Vishal
so much for bolding by asterisk.
2005-07-17 15:42:47
196.   Johnson
Choi's been playing a lot lately. Saenz must be injured and we just aren't hearing about it.
2005-07-17 15:43:45
197.   Benaiah
Ball one looked like the same pitch that Choi struck out on, nice zone blue!
2005-07-17 15:44:48
198.   ddger
196. OR Depo finally told Tracy to play Choi regularly.
2005-07-17 15:45:56
199.   LAT
195 Vishal you need three asterisks on each side
2005-07-17 15:46:33
200.   Vishal
seriously? when did that change?

also, how does one do italics here?

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2005-07-17 15:46:53
201.   Johnson
That would be a best-case scenario. Why would we expect a best-case scenario this season?

Nice, nice catch by Repko!

2005-07-17 15:47:05
202.   Bob Timmermann
I tell people to tilt their heads.
2005-07-17 15:47:05
203.   the OZ
LOL I just saw the Phillips AB from last night. That's one of the worst calls I've ever seen - it was practically a full swing.
2005-07-17 15:47:14
204.   LAT
At least Werth made contact. That's a marginal improvement. But can the guy not get in the hole 0-2 every AB.
2005-07-17 15:50:02
205.   ddger
What's wrong with Braz lately? Is it not getting enough work?
2005-07-17 15:50:06
206.   Jim Hitchcock
199 - Follow that advice, we're liable to get a power outage blacking out the Western states...
2005-07-17 15:51:24
207.   ddger
204. Maybe Werth has a clause in his contract for extra Bonus for base hits with 2 strikes.
2005-07-17 15:54:14
208.   ddger
Let's make Erickson our closer now.
2005-07-17 15:54:29
209.   Vishal
2005-07-17 15:54:30
210.   LAT
2 out, 2 strikes, 3 in: That really is Ghame Over
2005-07-17 15:55:25
211.   ddger
How many times has Braz given up a 3-run HR this year? It seems like it's getting pretty regular.
2005-07-17 15:55:25
212.   LAT
Shall we meet in the Dodger bullpen and burn our T-shirts
2005-07-17 15:55:56
213.   Benaiah
Ouch. Yhency looked ok until then. That pitch was down the pike but low. Vizquel owns Yhency is the word on the street.
2005-07-17 15:56:32
214.   ddger
Braz ERA at 5.54. Any other closer with higher ERA?
2005-07-17 15:56:41
215.   Vishal
it occurs to me as i wrote that, that booing is sometimes booing the outcome at least as much as it is booing the players.
2005-07-17 15:57:54
216.   Benaiah
Yhency needs to get work more often, either than or he needs to never come in without it being a save situation. It is nice to have a closer with a sub 5 ERA.
2005-07-17 15:58:05
217.   Bob Timmermann
Keith Foulke's ERA is in the 6 range I believe
2005-07-17 15:58:09
218.   LAT
Lest there be any doubt as to the cost of losing No. 38
2005-07-17 15:59:39
219.   ddger
Looking at the bright side, even with this loss, at least we stay ahead of SF for 3rd place.

Our new goal for rest of season is to finish ahead of SF.

2005-07-17 16:00:41
220.   Bob Timmermann
I'm shocked that Brazoban hit Sanchez with a pitch.

Alex Sanchez!

He'd be lucky to hit the ball out of the infield.

2005-07-17 16:01:04
221.   ddger
217. Is he still closing? I thought he was hurt.

Maybe it's time to try another guy at closer but the problem is we have no one else.

2005-07-17 16:01:51
222.   Bob Timmermann
Schilling's ERA is even higher than Foulke's.
2005-07-17 16:02:12
223.   ddger
Any volunteers for closer job?

Erickson closing might become a reality if this continues.

2005-07-17 16:03:05
224.   Linkmeister
I seem to remember we thought the bullpen was one of our strengths at the start of the year. Even without Gagne, this has been discouraging.
2005-07-17 16:06:48
225.   Benaiah
Save Opportunities: 18.1 IP 7 ER, 3.37 ERA (2 ERA without Pierzynski's bomb)
Non-Save: 19 IP, 17 ER, 8.05 ERA

He has allowed one HR in Save opportunities, but 5 in Non save in comparable innings pitched. I don't know if he is being sloppy or what, but he is definitely much better with a save on the line.

2005-07-17 16:07:36
226.   natepurcell
good news: jackson is holding the biscuits scoreless after 4IP

bad news: he only has one strike out. and guzman and young are not making things any easier for young edwin.

2005-07-17 16:08:06
227.   Benaiah
The problem is that we need him as more than a closer, since we aren't exactly cranking out save opportunities lately.
2005-07-17 16:11:06
228.   ddger
Nate, can Broxton come up and close for us now.

I know it's crash course but Braz did it last year.

2005-07-17 16:12:30
229.   Steve
Might as well let him work through it. We're not playing for anything, and if we sell, we'd be selling low. Not that I'm against selling; as everyone knows, Braz would be second on my list to Izturis as far as perceived value v. real value. But right now there's nothing to do but grin and bear it with Braz.
2005-07-17 16:13:14
230.   Benaiah
The problem isn't Yhency as a closer (so far anyway) the problem is yhency as a reliever or set-up man. Kou is the guy I would like to see come up and be a set up man. A high 90s fastball is still hard to hit in the bigs.
2005-07-17 16:14:34
231.   ddger
Do they keep track of runners left on base for each player?
2005-07-17 16:15:58
232.   Dodgersrock24
I think what Tracy should do is have all the relievers have a chance to close a game. If they get a save, they get to be the closer until they blow a save. Also Tracy shouldn't have used Braz in the 9th, he should've used Schmoll.
2005-07-17 16:17:08
233.   Linkmeister
Why did the ESPN game start two hours ahead of the usual time? Anybody know? I don't see anything on their schedule this evening which is more earth-shattering than SNB.
2005-07-17 16:17:32
234.   Steve
230 -- Yhency the "closer" can pitch just as badly as Yhency the "reliever" or whatever that dichotomy is supposed to be. You're talking about meaningless sample sizes.
2005-07-17 16:18:17
235.   LAT
In case anyone thinks we don't truly suck consider this: The only thing standing between the Giants first 4 game sweep of the Dodgers in history was a gift (read: blown) call in the 9th yesterday.
2005-07-17 16:19:28
236.   Steve
By the way, hitting Alex Sanchez with a pitch invokes the Grabowski Principle. No two ways about that one.
2005-07-17 16:19:45
237.   LAT
BTW, I forgot to cite B. Timmermann there.
2005-07-17 16:21:05
238.   Steve
In case anyone thinks we don't truly suck consider this

It seems to me that this is the only thing we really all agree on. :)

2005-07-17 16:21:37
239.   Linkmeister
Ah, never mind. The ESPY Awards are handed out this evening. Another exercise in self-congratulation worthy of my avoidance.
2005-07-17 16:26:57
240.   natepurcell
i wouldnt advise calling up broxton and throwing him into the fire as a closer.

hell, i dont even want broxton in the bullpen. :(

2005-07-17 16:28:01
241.   ddger
Responsible parties for today's loss:

Braz (50%)

Offense (50%) Too many LOB (18 by individuals, 9 as a team)
(main culprit was Werth with 5 LOB)

Great defense and Weaver kept us in the game until Braz came in.

2005-07-17 16:29:00
242.   Steve
Broxton at closer was the plan when we still had a chance. Season's over. Now fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly, Broxton's gotta start, and Guzman has to lead us to glory as Shortstop Reboot 2.0
2005-07-17 16:32:26
243.   natepurcell
wow, some crappy defense for the suns. 1st and 3rd no outs. sucky situation for jackson.
2005-07-17 16:34:48
244.   Benaiah
234 - The sample is small, but at the same time, the sample for all relievers is small. Using hypothesis testing I find that there is less than a 1% chance that the difference between his stats while closing and his stats while not are due to chance.

Formula: z-score=(runs per IP as closer-runs per IP as a non-closer)/square root of {(probability of a run scoring in an save situation inning)/IP in save situations + (probability of run scoring in a non-save inning)/IP in non-save situations). The z-score was 3.9, so that works out to a p<.01 and the difference is highly significant.

2005-07-17 16:37:04
245.   Bob Timmermann
The SF Chronicle had the 1923 4-game sweep also. But they didn't cite me!
Of course, they may have looked it up on their own.

But a 4-game sweep of anybody is pretty rare. There just aren't that many 4-game series.

The Dodgers have never swept a 4-game series from the Padres in Dodger Stadium. They have in San Diego. The Padres have done it a couple of times in both cities however.

A few years ago, the Padres came here and swept four and then the Dodgers went down to San Diego and did the same thing.

2005-07-17 16:37:16
246.   natepurcell
dukes just took jacksond downtown.

3-2 2 foul offs, and then dukes took him deep to straight away center.

2005-07-17 16:39:02
247.   natepurcell
jacksons lack of strikeouts is concerning me.
2005-07-17 16:41:50
248.   ddger
Maybe closer issue is not very relevant this year. The way this season is going, our closer will almost never pitch if he is only used in save situations.

What we need is relievers (closers, setup, mopup, long, short, aspirins, rollaids, whatever)?

2005-07-17 16:43:17
249.   ddger
248. We're fortunate that Gagne's injury occurred this
2005-07-17 16:45:16
250.   ddger
We're fortunate that Gagne's injury occurred this season. Let's get all the injuries out of the way this year and hope for less injuries next year.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2005-07-17 16:46:33
251.   Benaiah
248 - Definately. Penny and Weaver can be counted on to take us through 6 or 7, but Lowe, Perez and Houlton/Dessens/ect cannot. Alverez and Dessens are nice long guys, and Schmoll is solid. Sanchez is still a heart attack out there, but he is better than average. Erickson is a mop-up/DBB (designated bean baller) and Gio goes with Sanchez as a seat of his pants set up man. Our bullpen isn't awful, it just seems like they always let us down when it counts. Everygame we do just enough to lose, with a couple of flukes here and there.
2005-07-17 16:47:09
252.   Bob Timmermann
First base umpire rules that ddger went around on Post 249


2005-07-17 16:48:44
253.   Dodgerkid
Well the season is over for me, I'm off to England in a couple of days. I think I'll skip the Tuesday game for my sanity's sake. Baseball watching will be strictly through the Internet for the rest of the season for me. I guess this is the team's way of severing relations with me.
2005-07-17 16:49:00
254.   ddger
Bob, can I thrown out of this season.
2005-07-17 16:50:04
255.   ddger
253. You're lucky guy. I'm stuck in LA all season.
2005-07-17 16:50:34
256.   Benaiah
253 - I was in Ireland last year for the end of the season, it isn't worth watching most of the games. A night game starts at 1 or 2 AM. I am guessing that there will be no reason to stay up that late.
2005-07-17 16:51:08
257.   ddger
Regret that the baseball season is so long now.
2005-07-17 16:57:34
258.   b1ued0dger
Grand Slam by Sergio Garcia gives the Suns a 6-3 lead.
2005-07-17 16:58:27
259.   Benaiah
257 - I regret that the non-baseball season is so long. I waited and waited for baseball to start only to have to deal with this. The pain of today is better than the waiting in the offseason.
2005-07-17 16:58:39
260.   Bob Timmermann
Not every season is like this one. Some are better. Some are worse. I still enjoy watching. Beats watching reruns of "Full House."
2005-07-17 17:00:47
261.   Benaiah
260 - The early episodes anyway, before DJ gets hot. Though I guess she never got as hot as Aunt Becky.
2005-07-17 17:02:06
262.   Linkmeister
So Bob, did we have unrealistic expectations this year?
2005-07-17 17:03:37
263.   ddger
My kid loves "Full House" so I end up having to watch some of them. Some episodes are actually better than watching this year's Dodgers.
2005-07-17 17:04:55
264.   b1ued0dger
Delwyn Young hits a 3-run homerun to give the Suns a 9-3 lead!
2005-07-17 17:14:53
265.   Steve
264 -- If that's what "bad defense" gets us, give me more, more, more "bad defense"
2005-07-17 17:22:45
266.   b1ued0dger
Orlando Rodriguez is making his first apperance since he had TJ surgery. He had a 0.00 ERA in 2002 in 35.1 innings. That season he had a 13.34 K/9 in the SALLY league.
2005-07-17 17:30:08
267.   Fearing Blue
#244: Benaiah, your analysis is based on key assumption that isn't true. It implicitly assumes that the quality of Brazoban's pitching has not varied over the course of the season. Brazoban got the majority of save situations early in the season when Gagne was injured and the Dodgers were actually generating save situations. Since then, the quality of his pitching overall has gone downhill, but he has had many fewer save situations (only 6). In those 6 appearances, Brazoban has allowed 5 earned runs in 6.2 innings.
2005-07-17 17:32:04
268.   Fearing Blue
#266: It's his first appearance with the Suns, though he has already pitched a fair amount for Vero Beach. With Vero Beach, Rodriguez had a 4.15 ERA with 25 Ks, 9 BBs, and 2 HRs allowed in 17.1 IP.
2005-07-17 17:36:05
269.   Fearing Blue
Luis Gonzalez, a recently promoted left-handed reliever, got shellacked by Tucson in his second appearance with Las Vegas. In his inning of relief, he allowed 4 runs (all earned) on 3 hits (2 homeruns) and 2 walks bumping his ERA to a not-so-pretty 15.43. At least he got a strikeout :P.
2005-07-17 17:49:56
270.   b1ued0dger
#268: Your right. I forgot to mention that because the baseball cube doesn't show current stats.

#269: I bet those homeruns would have been outs in Jacksonville.

2005-07-17 17:53:33
271.   Vishal
bottom of the 9th at fenway, red sox down 5-3 to the yankees. bases loaded and two out against mariano rivera, and who comes to the plate? alex cora.

what does he do? he hits into a double play, third to catcher to first. nobody scores, two out. red sox proceed to lose.

moral of the story: we do not miss alex cora.

2005-07-17 18:21:22
272.   Gen3Blue
I don't understand why all contaracts are guaranteed. Take one of these players who gets this ridiculous contract-- Four years at five million per/yr. Woudn't some players rather take a contract at 7 million per for four years but when I'm i njured I only get a rate of one million per year. This would allow some players who are gung-ho to get more and save teams from having to pay a player 5 mil and all his medical expenses and watch him leave for his next big contract somewhere else. Of course, maybe teams are getting wise and we will see the end of guys like S. Boras, but I doubt it. I'm dreaming, aren't I. But isn't there any logic here???
2005-07-17 18:24:47
273.   Steve
271 -- When the Red Sox win the East, and either Plaschke or Modesti write the thumbsucker about how trading for Cora got them there, that one probably won't show up.
2005-07-17 18:32:59
274.   Steve
272 -- And how would we get to our promised payroll of $100 million using your crazy logic? Wouldn't you rather that Shawn Green got that money, to pay for his seventeenth antique motorcycle, rather than Frank McCourt get it to pay for the addition to his Holmby Hills estate?

Or something like that.

2005-07-17 18:44:12
275.   Vishal
whoops, i meant bases loaded and nobody out.

you know, frankly i don't really care who gets it, between the players and the owners. it comes out of my pocket at the ticket window either way.

2005-07-17 19:28:10
276.   Benaiah
267 - My analysis is based on this: why is Yhency's ERA so much higher in non-save situations? The null hypothesis: Yhency pitches the same in both situations, the alternative hypothesis: Yhency pitches better in save situations. Despite the sample size the second hypothesis is far more likely due to the large disparity. The probability of the null being true and the results being this far apart due to chance error is less than 1 in a 1000. Also, while Yhency did give up 5 ER in his last 6 Save chances, 4 of them were in one outing. He hasn't blown a save and only given up one run in his last 5 save chances (though his peripheral stats are sorely lacking there too, despite the 1.8 ERA). All told though, Yhency has given up as many ER in his last 3.1 IP in non-save situations as he has given up all year in save situations. While he might be regressing accross the board, he still seems to perform better with a save on the line.
2005-07-17 20:45:11
277.   Xeifrank
Tough schedule for the Dodgers coming up. Say "hello" to the Rockies.
vr, Xei
2005-07-17 20:45:22
278.   Fearing Blue
Milton Bradley not a free agent until 2008?!?!

Some potential good news, though I have no way to verify the result. I just did a service-time analysis for Milton Bradley based on all of the transactions from and a website source that I found ( I matched these up with the game logs on Baseball Musings to make sure they make sense, which they do. The result is that it looks like Bradley will only have 4 years 176 days of service time after this season. If that's accurate, he wouldn't be a free agent until after the 2007 season, missing the cutoff by just 6 days! Someone should double-check this work.

Here are the relevant transactions:

July 17th, 2000: Recalled OF Milton Bradley from AAA Ottowa.
August 2nd, 2000: Optioned OF Milton Bradley to AAA Ottowa.
August 11th, 2000: Recalled OF Milton Bradley from AAA Ottowa.
October 1st, 2000: Last game of the season for Montreal Expos.
2000 Total: 67 days of service time.

April 2nd, 2001: First game of the season for Montreal Expos.
June 22nd, 2001: Optioned OF Milton Bradley to AAA Ottowa.
July 31st, 2001: Traded to Cleveland Indians for RHP Zach Day. (Oops!)
July 31st, 2001: Optioned OF Milton Bradley to AAA Buffalo.
September 10th, 2001: Recalled OF Milton Bradley from AAA Ottowa.
October 7th, 2001: Last game of the season for Cleveland Indias.
2001 Total: 109 days of service time.

2002: Full season with Indians.
2002 Total: 182 days of service time.

2003: Full season with Indians.
2003 Total: 182 days of service time.

2004: Full season with Dodgers.
2004 Total: 182 days of service time.

2005: Full season with Dodgers
2005 Total: 182 days of service time.

2005-07-17 20:45:49
279.   Xeifrank
One of the best teams in all of sports is going to be in town tomorrow night. Anyone going to the game? If you are, I'm jealous.
vr, Xei
2005-07-17 20:46:58
280.   Xeifrank
Current standings of the Grabowski Flight of the DT Over/Under challenge. Email me if you want to join (
7/17 Giants vs Jeff Weaver
Actual: 7 IPs

Colorado Blue: 6
Howard: 7

Xeifrank: 6 2/3
CT Bum: 7 1/3

Howard 3-1-0
CT Bum 1-1-2
Xeifrank 1-1-2
Colorado Blue 1-3-0

2005-07-17 20:56:27
281.   Fearing Blue
#276: Benaiah. But your analysis is just analyzing the previous situations, it says nothing about his true ability or forward projections. There is a logical inconsistency there. Let's say we have the following situation:

Over a two month period pitcher A pitches in only save situations (30 IP) and doesn't allow any runs. At the end of the scoreless streak, pitcher A breaks his pitching arm and decides to compensate by pitching with his offhand. Over the next two months, pitcher A only pitches in non-save situations allowing 300 runs in 30 IP. If we apply your analysis to the situation, it would show that pitcher A is without a doubt a better pitcher in save situations. But, it entirely ignores the fact that he was pitching with his offhand for the second two months. Now let's say that pitcher A's arm heals. Can we really make any claim that he is or is not a better pitcher in save situations?

Clearly Brazoban's decline was not as severe as pitching with his offhand (though it sometimes appears that way), but his stats prior to Gagne coming off the DL are consistently better than his stats after Gagne returned (including limited save opportunities). Perhaps Brazoban developed a mechanical flaw, or the scouting report finally made it past the Mississippi. All I'm saying is that we really have no idea whether Brazoban's ability is higher in save vs. non-save situations. All we've learned through your z-score is that there is an extremely high probability that Brazoban performance was worse in non-save situations so far, as opposed to just the result of luck.

2005-07-17 20:56:49
282.   Xeifrank
I thankfully missed todays game. Was out shopping at Baby's R Us in an attempt to keep the little one out of the kitchen cabinets etc... Mission accomplished. Was listening to some of the sports talk radio on 570AM. Former Dodger Mark Gubicza was hosting and taking calls about the Dodgers. I couldn't believe how terrible some of the calls were and MG agreeing with the callers on some of the dumbest comments. One guy brought up the trade of LoDuca and getting rid of Lima. Seems like this guy thought that personalities were the most important aspect of a team. The Gooby went on to agree and said when he was in KC, his manager Hal McRae would say that he'd take a player who wasn't afraid to bat with RISP in the 9th inning over a .400 hitter. Then there were complaints about the rookies. Why did the Dodgers decide to play so many rookies. Uh, injuries?? Why did the Dodgers tear apart their team just to play rookies. Uh, injuries?? Then they complained that the Dodgers didn't have names on the back of the jerseys and somehow this was hurting the team because the fans couldn't get into the game, because afterall who are these guys! Then there was the guy who said chemistry was more important than stats when determining the value of a player(s). Then they ended the show, with some guy who thought Kirk Gibson must've been using steroids when he hit that home run in the WS off of Eck. Afterall, how could someone with only one good leg get the leverage to hit a HR. Then he ended his call by saying the reason that Barry Bonds gets hurt so much, or got hurt was because he hits so many HRs and walks so many times that he doesn't get enough time to rest on the bench. haha! I was laughing too hard to get mad. Gooby agreed with everything except for this last caller.
vr, Xei
2005-07-17 21:10:46
283.   Fearing Blue
From the Dodgers game report on

"After Sunday's game, the Dodgers outrighted outfielder Jason Grabowski to Triple-A Las Vegas with the intention of making room to activate Wilson Alvarez from the disabled list Tuesday. Alvarez is returning from shoulder problems, he's the only left-hander in the bullpen and he has only four lifetime saves, but if he begins showing up in games like this, it shouldn't be a surprise."

2005-07-17 21:14:53
284.   Fearing Blue
#278: Unfortunately, I've been informed that it only takes 172 days to count as a full year of service time, thus Bradley's 176 days will count as a full year. Thus, Bradley will be a free agent after 2006 unless we can sign him to a multi-year deal after this season.

The service time definitions are from the CBA, in article XXI section A.

Thanks to akrasian from for the information.

2005-07-17 21:23:48
285.   Benaiah
281 - Pre-Gagne:
14.1 IP 3ER (1.88 ERA, 0.75 ERA in save, 7.73 in non-save obviously this stat is ridiculous in that he only pitched 2.1 innings)
after Gagne returned:
23 IP 20 ER (7.82 ERA)
6.2 IP 6ER (8.09 ERA in save situations)
16.1 IP 14 ER (7.71 ERA)

Your thesis seems to be correct, however, he only had 7 save appearances PG and 2/3 of the runs came in one appearance. The numbers are so small that without that one game against the Sox he would have a 3 ERA in save situations. I agree that he has regressed significantly (perhaps a better use of the hypo-testing would be to check pre and post Gagne, a z-score of 5.1). The results are flawed by the fact that 2/3 of his save appearances are pre-Gagne while about 90% of his non-save appearances are post Gagne. That said, I still think he does better with a save on the line, though lately better might still not be that good.

2005-07-17 21:24:52
286.   Benaiah
283 - Wow that news is so good it makes me forget about the loss. Grabbo... off the roster! That said, Erickson dodges another bullet.
2005-07-17 21:36:15
287.   Benaiah
When Bradley comes back do you think Erickson will be sent down? Bradley replacing Grabbo and Alverez replacing Erickson seems to fit better, so I can't help but wonder if Depo is just trying to keep Scotty around long enough to make one last desperate try at his wife.
2005-07-17 21:41:43
288.   Benaiah
Bradley didn't play in the 51's game today, I wonder if he was just getting a break or if his finger was bothering him.
2005-07-17 21:45:32
289.   Fearing Blue
#285: Thanks for testing out the seconday hypothesis. I'm not surprised that it was higher, but 5.1 seems very high. There is no longer any doubt in my mind. Gagne broke Brazoban! :)

One of the reasons I pushed back on the argument that Brazoban is worse in non-save situations is that the same argument seems to come up for just about every closer in the majors. I can't remember where I read the article, but I remember reading that in general closers do a bit better statistically in save situations than in non-save situations. I don't think the article discussed a reason, but perhaps the non-save situations are actually more critical than the save situations. That is, perhaps in non-save situations closers are more likely to face the middle of the order, have men on base, be in a close game, etc. I wonder if Brazoban's issues in non-save situations go beyond this small and perhaps expected difference.

2005-07-17 21:49:36
290.   Fearing Blue
#286: Yeah, I would have preferred to say goodbye to Erickson before Grabowski, but I have to be happy with little steps.

#287: Perhaps, though I would expect that Chen is a likelier target. Tracy played Edwards in LF today and the Dodgers have Perez currently working out in the outfield. That should allow the Dodgers to carry just 4 full-time outfielders (Bradley, Werth, Ledee and Repko).

#288: Bradley came back to Los Angeles to take batting practice with the big league club. He's going to rejoin his rehabilitation tomorrow.

2005-07-17 21:56:30
291.   Benaiah
290 - A fountain of information as always, thanks FB. As for the save/non-save I wonder if in some ways it isn't a matter of concentration. Gagne always seemed a little sloppier when he was just relieving and not closing.

We keep the two best Ja(y)sons and have Bradley and Ledee to boot! Not as good as Bradley, Ledee, Drew and 2004 Werth, but much better than the Grabbo, Edwards, Ross, Chen outfields that we have had of late.

2005-07-17 21:58:08
292.   Dodgerkid

Have you thought about writing a blog exclusively devoted to the Dodgers' minor league system?

2005-07-17 22:01:33
293.   Steve
I was hoping for an Erickson/Grabowski Death Match where the loser, well, lost, and the lucky winner got DFAed.
2005-07-17 22:01:40
294.   Fearing Blue
#292: I've thought about it, but I'm starting graduate school in September so I don't know if I'll have enough time. Hopefully I'll be able to do something next season.
2005-07-17 22:03:44
295.   Fearing Blue
#293: And with that happy thought, I'm going to bed. I should have good dreams tonight.

By the way, what ever happened to that imminent trade you were discussing earlier?

2005-07-17 22:06:39
296.   Steve
I just pass along vain rumors. If you go over to "The Juice," Will Carroll says that the Orioles have upped their offer by not only being willing to take Mike Lowell but Juan Encarnacion as well. If I'm the Marlins, I'm looking at that deal and thinking maybe this is salvagable after all.
2005-07-17 23:30:35
297.   LAT

263. I feel your pain. My daughters love Full House. The Tivo is full of episodes that they have seen 10 times and refuse to delete. (I do it after bed time).

I hate to say but I don't think Erickson is going anywhere. As between Erickson and Grabs, I am glad Grabs is gone. JT no longer uses Ericksn in a meaningful way. I'm not sure he had lost complete faith in Grabs yet and there was still a chance we would see him with the game on the line. I only worry that Grabs will have success in Vegas and get called back when the roster expands. Please no.

2005-07-17 23:35:54
298.   LAT
Steve, does Green really collect antique motorcycles or were you just making a point? If so, its a personal factoid the SG-stalking daughter didn't know.
2005-07-17 23:50:54
299.   Eric L
Will it really matter if Grabs gets called back up when the rosters expand?

With the way things are going right now, the Dodgers aren't going to be playing for much in September.

2005-07-18 00:05:50
300.   LAT
Opportunity, Eric. I don't want him to get the opportunity to have even a little success and give Depo cause to think he should be back in 2006.
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2005-07-18 00:52:05
301.   Kilgore Trout
Anyone think that this may be the last we see of Grabby?
2005-07-18 02:08:56
302.   coachjpark
"It gives us two professional hitters [along with Jason Phillips] behind Jeff Kent," said manager Jim Tracy, who said he wanted a lineup with left-handed flavor against San Francisco right-hander Hennessey without bunching left-handed hitters Ledee and Hee-Seop Choi because of three left-handers in the Giants' bullpen.

Does that mean that Hee Seop is not professional?

I thought that the moniker professional hitter was designated solely for Olmedo Saenz. Apparently not.

2005-07-18 04:53:28
303.   Kilgore Trout

Since Jim Tracy likes blabbering, I wouldn't try to dissect everything he says. What major league manager would imply that his #6, 7, and 8 hitters are unprofessional?

2005-07-18 06:44:27
304.   Steve
Just exercising literary license there.
2005-07-18 07:17:41
305.   Sam DC
Boy, some days seeing "Giants 4 Dodger 1" on the ticker just before bed doesn't really capture the game very well, now does it.
2005-07-18 07:22:04
306.   godvls
#279 I'll be at Home Depot Center tonight to see all of the galacticos. Too bad Donovan won't be would be nice to see him going against the best.

Prediction: Real Madrid 3 Galaxy 0

Of course, Madrid went all out it would be more like 7-0. I doubt if Zidane, Ronaldo, Beckham, Owen, Figo, Roberto Carlos etc will play more than a half.

2005-07-18 07:35:38
307.   Bob Timmermann
Go were going to have a Galaxy Thoughts Match Chat tonight?
2005-07-18 08:03:01
308.   Benaiah
Real Madrid is like the Yankees, a huge collection of talent and payroll with nothing to show for it. They got dominated by a bunch of teams since they seem to scoop up players on the decline rather than on the rise (a la Rooney).
2005-07-18 08:20:27
309.   Benaiah
the Hardballtimes has an article up about Predicted OPS. Hee-Seop Choi has the 9th highest PrOPS in the NL and the 3rd largest disparity between OPS and PrOPS, hopefully this will translate to improved second half performance.
2005-07-18 08:48:37
310.   Vishal
309. glancing at that article, it bodes well for hee seop... but apparently aubrey huff might not be such a good trade target, and carlos beltran has been OVERPERFORMING his predicted OPS? ew.

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