Thanks Michael Tucker, you play like garbage against everyone else, but have career days against us.

Gagne should have body slammed your sorry butt last year.

Minor League Update
Statistical summary format is AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters and ERA/IP/K/BB for pitchers.

Las Vegas 51s (AAA):
The 51s lost 11 - 4 to Tucson.

Jose Valentin made his first rehab appearance with the 51s. Valentin started at third base and went 1 for 2 before being pulled after the 3rd inning (.500/.500/.500). Milton Bradley did not play as he was back in Los Angeles taking batting practice with the major league club. Bradley will rejoin the 51s Monday night and face right-handed pitching for the first time. Center fielder Todd Donovan and shorstop Tony Schrager eached reached base three times in the contest. Donovan went 3 for 5 with a stolen base and a run scored (.333/.395/.364). Schrager went 2 for 3 with a walk, a double, and a run scored (.234/.343/.396). Willy Aybar started the game at second base and moved to third base after Valentin was pulled. Aybar went 0 for 4 with a walk and an RBI (.296/.363/.436). First baseman Norihiro Nakamura went 0 for 3 with 2 walks (.277/.344/.550).

Starting pitcher Derek Thompson struggled through 4 innings though he only allowed 2 runs (1 earned). Thompson gave up 5 hits and 3 walks with 5 strikeouts (3.43/21.0/17/11). So far, with Las Vegas, Thompson has averaged over a baserunner and a half per inning. Relievers Thomas Nall, Mike Venafro, Alfredo Gonzalez, and Luis Gonzalez combined to finish the game, with only Alfredo Gonzalez escaping unscathed. Nall pitched 1 inning, allowing 1 run (earned) on 3 hits (1 hommerun) and a walk with 3 strikeouts (6.79/62.1/52/33). Venafro pitched 2 innings, allowing 4 runs (all earned) on 3 hits (1 homerun) and 2 walks with 1 strikeout (8.36/28.0/20/26). Alfredo Gonzalez pitched a perfect inning with 1 strikeout (4.39/41.0/23/21). Luis Gonzalez got crushed in just his second appearance with the 51s. Gonzalez allowed 4 runs (all earned) on 3 hits (2 homeruns) and 2 walks with 2 strikeouts (15.43/2.1/4/3).

Jacksonville Suns (AA):
The Suns beat Montgomery 9 - 4.

Eight of the Suns runs came in the 7th inning. During the inning, 12 Suns came to the plate. Right fielder Sergio Garcia and second baseman Delwyn Young dealt the biggest blows, with Garcia hitting a grand slam and Young hitting a 3-run homerun. Garcia went 3 for 5 overall (.286/.350/.350). During the season, Garcia has received limited at-bats as a backup infielder / outfielder for the Suns. Young had a great night at the plate, going 3 for 5 and adding a double to his big fly (.292/.342/.478). Designated hitter Tydus Meadows also reached 3 times, going 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and 2 runs scored (.285/.429/.512). First baseman James Loney went 1 for 4 with a walk, a run scored, and an RBI (.274/.355/.389). Catcher Russell Martin went 2 for 5 with a run scored (.317/.440/.421). Shorstop Joel Guzman and third baseman Andy LaRoche were each held hitless in 5 at-bats in the middle of the lineup. LaRoche struck out once and scored a run (.310/.388/.552). After initially punishing Southern League pitching, LaRoche has slowed down considerably over the past couple weeks. Guzman struck out twice and had two errors in the game bringing his season totals to 98 strikeouts and 22 errors in 85 games and 319 at-bats (.285/.350/.495).

Starter Edwin Jackson had a shutout going through the first 5 innings, but gave up a 3-run homerun with nobody out in the 6th. Jackson recovered to get the next three batters to put himself in position for the win. Overall, Jackson allowed 3 runs (all earned) on 6 hits (1 homerun) and 1 walk with just 2 strikeouts (3.19/31.0/20/10). Jackson's lack of strikeouts is a huge concern, with only 21 strikeouts in 31.0 innings pitched with Jacksonville. Orlando Rodriguez came on in the 7th for his first appearance with the Suns. Rodriguez gave up 1 run (earned) on 3 hits (1 homerun) and no walks while striking out 2 (4.50/2/2/0). Rodriguez was pitching well in 2003 when he started the year with Jacksonville. But, after just 12 innings pitched, Rodriguez had to shut it down for Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss all of the 2004 season. Carlos Alvarez pitched a perfect 9th inning with 1 strikeout (4.50/8.0/12/1). Alvarez is certainly not going to maintain a 12-to-1 K:BB ratio, but for now it sure is nice for a 20 year old left-hander in AA.

Vero Beach Dodgers (High-A):
The Dodgers won 7 - 6 over Dunedin in the 10th inning.

Going into the bottom of the 9th, the Dodgers trailed 6 - 4. With one out in the 9th, right fielder Matt Kemp tied the game with a 2-run homerun. The Dodgers added the winning run in the bottom of the 10th on a single by second baseman Jimmy Rohan, scoring center fielder Jamie Hoffman. Kemp continued to crush Florida State League pitching, going 3 for 5 with 2 doubles, a homerun, 3 runs scored, 3 RBIs, and a strikeout (.291/.327/.498). Shortstop Chin-lung Hu went 2 for 5 with 3 runs scored and a strikeout (.286/.328/.409). First baseman Cory Dunlap went 2 for 5 with an RBI and 2 strikeouts (.280/.374/.371). Dunlap controls the strike zone well (40 walks and 41 strikeouts in 275 at-bats), but needs to develop more power to maintain his status as a first base prospect. Tony Abreu started at designated hitter and went 1 for 4 (.318/.347/.434).

Starting pitcher Matt Merricks only made it through 2.2 innings. Merricks allowed 6 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits (2 homeruns) and 2 walks with no strikeouts (5.84/12.1/12/8). Merricks has struggled since being returned to the Dodgers by the Rockies. Relievers Alvis Ojeda and Mark Alexander combined for 7.1 scoreless innings of relief. Ojeda pitched 5.1 innings allowing only 2 walks while striking out 3 (3.10/40.2/22/15). Alexander pitched the final two innings for the win, allowing 2 hits and no walks with 2 strikeouts (1.60/45.0/66/17).

Columbus Catfish (Low-A):
The Catfish's game against Kannapolis was postponed due to wet grounds.

Ogden Raptors (Rookie):
The Raptors lost 3 - 0 to Missoula.

The Raptors were held to 2 hits and no walks against Missoula pitching, one single each by third baseman Justin Crist and left fielder Andrew Locke. Shorstop Juan Rivera went 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts (.271/.354/.341). Second baseman Jesus Soto went 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts (.292/.333/.462). First baseman David Sutherland went 0 for 4 with no strikeouts (.426/.504/.495). Russell Mitchell was in the starting lineup at third base, but was replaced by Crist before he had made any appearance in the game. Juan Apodaca did not play as Kengshill Pujols started at catcher.

Starting pitcher Brent Leach pitched well, allowing 2 runs (earned) on 6 hits (1 homerun) and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts (2.05/26.1/24/9). Jonathan Meloan pitched the last two innings in relief. Meloan allowed 1 run (earned) on 1 hit and a walk with 4 strikeouts (3.00/9.0/15/3).

GCL Dodgers (Rookie):
No game scheduled.

Greg Miller and Jumbo Diaz were both promoted to Vero Beach after Saturday's pitching performance. Miller is scheduled to start a game against the St. Lucie Mets later in the week with Diaz coming on in relief. Here is a Logan White quote regarding Miller from an LADugout.com pay aritcle:

Said Logan White about what he saw from Miller: "He threw his curve a lot more and every pitch had great movement. Those batters (Rookie ball batters) couldn't do anything with it, but I don't know anybody at any level that could, the way the ball was moving. He looked as good as I've ever seen him."

2 - Thanks for the update FB. I am glad that Miller's stint in the GCL was just temporary, I think he should be back in AA by the end of the season, barring setbacks. What do you think is up with Laroche? I guess everyone has slumps, hopefully he will break out of this one soon. By the way, the Dodgers seemed to have signed all of the crazy talent that was going to be so expensive in this draft (Wall, Van Slycke), do you think that this might mean bad things for Hachovar, or is this an indication that they are willing to spend the big bucks?

#3: It would be nice if Miller could finish the year with Jacksonville, but the Dodgers may take it slow with him and leave him in Vero Beach for the next couple months. One reason is that isn't a rotation spot available in Jacksonville, with Billingsley, Orenduff, Broxton, Hull, and Hanrahan currently there.

Based on last year's draft, I don't think the Dodgers have any problem spending big bucks on draft picks. I still expect Hochevar to sign, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was early next year. He really doesn't need any more innings this season.

#4: Meant to say Jackson instead of Broxton, though there is the possibility that Broxton could move back into the rotation at some point.

#3: As far as LaRoche, I wouldn't worry too much. Moving up to Jacksonville is a big step as AA is typically considered the testing ground for prospects. It will likely take him some time to adjust. His early hot streak likely set him up for unreasonable expectations, though he's still going to be very good.

Love these updates FB... great news on Miller. Guzman is kinda plateauing vs. 2004. His walk rate is up from 6% to 10% but his Iso Power is down from .243 to .210. If he's not going to stick in the infield he's going to start giving off the aroma of Franklin Gutierrez.

7 - The thing that everyone who sees him play says is that he just crushes the ball. My dad saw him play and said that he hit screaming line drive after line drive. Stats are obviously very important, but sometimes fluctuations occur that don't tell the whole story. I really hope that JtD stops chewing up the IF since if he can get the ball to first he will be a monster of a SS.

Also FB, where can I find a list of what draft picks the Dodgers have signed so far? I scoured the usual spots I would think to look but it was tough to find anything.

Sounds like a Burnett trade will be announced as soon as today. Baltimore still offering Hayden Penn, Julio and Bigbie and wants to extend Burnett immediately. Penn is only 20 and gets a B from Sickels. Seems like Edwin Jackson, Brazoban and Repko would be the equivalent package. Why aren't we in on this??

#9 Baseball America

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2005xteam.php?team=LAD

Dodgers September callups: Which players do you think will get the call up in September?
vr, Xei

#7: Guzman is still young for AA at 20 years old, and all of his skills project very well. The increased walk rate, increased strikeout rate, and slightly decreased power may be a symptom of him trying to develop more patience at the plate. Last year, Guzman only had 182 at-bats with Jacksonville, so some of the difference may be due to small sample size. The fact that Baseball America still ranked him as the #6 prospect in baseball is a great sign. He's still a great prospect, but we shouldn't expect him to be ready for 2006 and possibly not even to start 2007.

I don't think the Gutierrez comparison is accurate. Gutierrez was primarily a top prospect based on his FSL (A+) performance at 20 years old. He hadn't demonstrated any meaningful success at AA before being traded. Since then, he spent a little time performing well in AA, but he has really been struggling against AAA competition. Gutierrez is still only 22 years old, so Cleveland may just need to slow things down a little bit with him.

The dealbreaker for Burnett would be having to take on Lowell and his contract for the next three years.

Over/Under Challenge Update
S2. Dodgers vs Philadelphia (3 game series)
Colorado Blue vs CT Bum
Xeifrank vs Howard
Standings...
Howard 3-1-0
CT Bum 1-1-2
Xeifrank 1-1-2
Colorado Blue 1-3-0

Still taking entries to join the competition. xeifrank@yahoo.com

#14 - As the AJ sweepstakes heat up between Boston, ChiSox, and Baltimore, the Marlins are insisting whomever take Lowell AND Encarnacion.

This deal is not for the squeamish.

Isn't Mike Lowell the "heart and soul"* of the Marlins?

*TM

17. There was no transfer of heart and soul when we traded LoDuca?

The availability of Barry Zito is mentioned in Ken Rosenthal's story on the potential Burnett for Lowell trade.

Says Rosenthal, "(Hayden) Penn, though, almost certainly could be flipped for a more established pitcher. The A's have shown past interest in Penn, and the Marlins could make him the centerpiece of a multiplayer offer for lefthander Barry Zito. A's general manager Billy Beane has been adamant about his desire to keep Zito but could be emboldened by the recent success of the A's younger starters, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton and Dan Haren. Penn would give the A's another young starter to build around."

#10: Probably Jackson, Brazoban, and Werth is equivalent. The Marlins are also asking the taker to pick up Lowell's contract which goes through next year and possibly Encarnacion's contract as well. I've read the Dodgers are one of the suitors, but we're probably not willing to pay as much as Baltimore since they are making a playoff push and we aren't.

18 - No. I know that the heart and soul must have been included because ESPN, LATimes, others kept telling me about how much of it he had, and how the Dodgers lost all of it when he left.

The Marlins really got shortchanged if all they got was a .280 singles-hitting catcher without a large measure of heart and/or soul.

#14: Ouch.. I didn't check on Lowell's contract. It does go through 2007 at $8 million / year.

#12: I would start with players already on the 40-man roster. Of that group, Franquelis Osoria, Derek Thompson, Dioner Navarro, and Willy Aybar seem the likeliest candidates.

I meant Burnett for a bunch of Orioles, incluidng Hayden Penn, their best pitching prospect. The slip is revealing of what Fla. is really looking for. Burnett for you taking on Lowell's salary for the next three years.

This sounds like a bad trade for Baltimore. They should offer us Penn, Jorge Julio and, say, Jay Gibbons for Weaver.

With Burnett possibly being traded two weeks before the deadline, Weaver's stock should rise considerably. He is probably the best starting pitcher available to a contender. Depo might want to keep him and offer arbitration. If he accepts, the Dodgers pay him for a year while the studs in the minors get nearer to the majors. If Weaver does not accept arbitration, then the Dodgers will get some high draft picks for him.

#25. I'm a little confused by your logic. If Weaver's stock is rising considerably, making him the best starting pitcher available to a contender--all true--why would we keep him under these circumstances?

We should be trying to induce a contender to overpay for Weaver. I want to see a GM hold a news conference where he declares, tearfully, "it was tough to let go of a once-in-a-lifetime talent like Player X, but the fans want a winner now, Jeff Weaver is the missing piece needed for a championship, and this was the price that bastard DePodesta insisted on."

Much better than high draft picks!

Under those circumstances, I would expect our trading partner would try to sign Weaver to a long-term deal--probably for more than we would want to pay for him. But if they didn't, we could try to wangle him back in the off-season. This is a can't lose deal, a no-brainer, so long as we don't undervalue this asset.

25 - I think we should be more active at the major league level; i.e. trade Weaver now for proven talent. According to everyone and their brother our farm system is stocked. There has to be a point of diminishing returns where a team constantly takes draft picks or prospects in trades. Obviously the Dodgers have done a lot of retooling of the minor league system, but we need some focus on next year. If DePo is not even considering signing Weaver then I say we get proven talent for him now.

23. Thanks. Anyone not on the 40 man roster? Or is starting the clock early the problem there?
vr, Xei

#26 - Most likely that was implied - if someone were to overpay b/c of the demand in market we should definitely trade him (Bigbie and Penn would do nicely - do we need/want Julio?).

I still think the best bet is to keep him, and offer arbitration. We either get a solid starter for one year at market rate, or a couple of draft picks.

27 - Unless a cant-refuse trade is available for "proven talent," why pay for it in 05 when you're going to use it 06, 07?

Also, how often does a contender give up proven talent for proven talent? I guess... last year's Penny/LoDuca trade?

30 - Yeah, I mean the proven talent (PT) part is positional... if we could get either a corner infielder AND/or corner outfielder from a contender that needs pitching then I think we could afford to bring up one of young arms next year. The key is to find a contender that is willing to OVERPAY, which if they're serious, is a strong possibility.

#30...you answered your own question. It happens all the time. Many of this year's contenders are clearly deficient in dependable starting pitching, but have lots of power in their lineups, so they could afford to give up one piece of it. This description applies to more contenders than not. Texas, Baltimore, the Yankees, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Braves, arguably the Cardinals.

Dumping Weaver is not a happy prospect, and it will weaken our starting pitching. But so what? This year's done. We can start the rebuilding now. So why not leverage an asset that will probably not be a part of the 2006 season for us?

30 - I should add that I have ACCEPTED the fact that the Dodgers are not going to contend in '05.

32 - Dumping Weaver is not a happy prospect, and it will weaken our starting pitching. But so what? This year's done. We can start the rebuilding now. So why not leverage an asset that will probably not be a part of the 2006 season for us?

Yes, I think that summarizes it perfectly. And to repeat: leverage it with something that helps us in '06; NOT '0x and beyond...

I think, in retrospect, I would have rather made a more concerted effort to resign Weaver and used OP as trade bait given the weak market for SPs now and in '06; I'm sure we could have gotten a real steal for him... ah hindsight, what a beautifully depressing thing!

Re 32, 33, 34

I probably wasn't really clear.

My point was, unless you're blown away with a trade proposition for proven talent, it might - in the Dodgers' case - to trade Weaver for prospects.

If you trade for someone like Adam Dunn, you're paying him top dollar this year, and next year, with no guarentee that he'll be around after 06. Say we get Abreu, we'd pay him ~14M for the next three years (prorated 05 of course) and we'd be in contention in 06 and definitely in 07. You're basically paying top dollar for a guy who's going to test the FA market as soon as his contract is up.

Now, if you trade for prospects, you don't necessarily have to develop them. You can use them to aquire proven talent next year.

I'm definitely not trying to insinuate that the Dodgers need to rebuild, but if someone offers you a few top prospects for Weaver, why in the world wouldn't you be able to use those same (more developed) prospects next year for proven talent.

In regards to contender to contender blockbuster trades: I don't think they're common, but I'm not prepared to back that up with trade history stats, so I'll leave that alone.

The key is to find a contender that is willing to OVERPAY

Yeah, if you're blown away with a trade prop. that appears totally in your favor, then proven talent or potential talent, you're probably going to take it.

35 - Odalis' contract actually might make him more tradeable depending on how the pitching market turns out. DePo could extend/sign Weaver with the intention of trading Odalis in the future.

Too bad we cant convince Weaver and Odalis to trade contracst.

37 - With OP's injury-proneness he will covet his contract about as much as Dreifort did his.

Sure, I'd love to see Odalis go and Weaver stay. But we'd probably have to pay part of his salary to get someone to take him. Same goes for Lowe. They are not trade bait, unfortunately.

Some teams might look at Weaver's short-timer contract status and see it as a reason to underpay for him. "He's only a rental." But mid-market teams probably would see that as an asset. He's on a salary drive. Weaver knows, and our suitors will know, that if manages to get a team into the WS and does well, his market value will explode. He'd be a great guy to have on your team if you're a team like Texas, trying to stay in front of the A's and run the Angels to ground.

McCourt should put Sitrick & Co. to work. Get Weaver on the cover of SI. Get Joe Morgan to say nice things about him on a chat. Get him on David Letterman throwing fastballs through a watermelon or something. Make Weaver a household name in the next 10 days. Come on, your retainer should cover that!

#23: Xei, I guess it depends on what the rationale for bringing them up is. I'm primarily thinking of prospects who could contribute in 2006. In this case, the guys I listed would be the best bets, plus you might add Broxton or Kuo to the list. I don't think our other talent in AA is ready to contribute at the major league level. If the goal is to reward players for a huge season, then perhaps Russell Martin, Joel Guzman, or Delwyn Young as well. I would not expect to see Chad Billingsley or Andy LaRoche since they would not be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2006 season.

I was for letting Odalis sign with the Nationals. I haven't seen much to change my mind.

#41: In hindsight, it's easy to say that it would have been better to let Lowe and Perez sign elsewhere, though I still haven't given up on Perez. But, at least coming into the season, DePodesta had to try to put together a competitive rotation. Who were we going to throw out there with Penny and Weaver if we didn't sign Perez and Lowe?

42 nailed it. It was Lowe and Perez or nobody. Imagine having Erickson and Houlton as THE plan, rather than the BACKUP plan.

And even if the Dodgers had allowed Perez and Lowe to go to other teams, you're still in a position of needing to acquire at least two quality SP in a 2005-2006 offseason market that will likely be even worse than LAST year as far as available talent and price.

42 -- Well, I would say it was more like foresight to know, at least about Perez. He's even starting to look like Carlos. But I'll agree they were the best of a bad lot. I do not understand why we can't make a deal with Hochevar (maybe we can, I'm just sayin'). Like giving $5 million to him is worse than giving it to Eric Milton (retch).

Random Dodger Game Callback

Don't get posted on off days

So Bob, how long ago did you write that one?

BTW, I, for one, would like to see Jeff Weaver on Letterman throwing fastballs through a watermelon.

#45: Regarding Hochevar, I think the biggest stumbling block so far is that the two sides haven't started negotiating in earnest :). Once they do, we'll see how difficult getting a deal done will be. If Hochevar wants a major league contract, it may be in the Dodgers' best interest to wait until after the Rule 5 draft to sign him.

#47: You have to be careful with that kind of stunt. Weaver might break out his 86 mph cheese and have the baseball bounce off of the watermelon.

It would be pretty funny to see Weaver collapse against a watermelon.

trade lowe, please.

throwing fastballs through a watermelon

That could make Letterman's top ten list of things that sound dirty but aren't.

Like "shaking hands with Abraham Lincoln"
or "skiing down Mt. Baldy"

49 - Or he might throw his 3 o'clock slurve through Dave's head instead of the watermelon.

#51 careful what you wish for. Trading Lowe would be easy. Getting someone to pay Lowe's salary, that's the tricky part. It's Mr. McCourt's name on the bottom of that contract, and there's no reason to expect that to change.

Lowe's in a slump. I'm sure he'll do better eventually. And we're going to have a nice loooooong time to find out.

i seriously hate derrek lowes contract. the dude is going to make 10 mil in 2008- when he is 36 years old!

trade lowe, give lowes money to weaver.

2008 rotation:
brad penny
jeff weaver
chad billingsley
greg miller
luke hochevar

54 -
On a previous post(https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/17415.html) there's a link to an article on Lowe that attempts to show how streaky he can be.

the jax game is at home today. starts at 3PT
heres the link:

http://www.southernguide.tv/

Did the pro-Weaver crowd just come scuttling out of the woodwork all of a sudden? What's up? The guy absolutely blows. Ditch him, and ditch him ASAP. Hell, ditch Perez and Lowe, that can't hurt our chances of winning fourth place in the NL.

weaver has been money since the end of may.

Did the pro-Weaver crowd just come scuttling out of the woodwork all of a sudden? What's up? The guy absolutely blows.

Good stuff. That stiffens the old backbone.

and its not necessarily pro weaver, its anti lowe and choosing weaver over lowe.

Money, since the end of May?

I think you need to re-watch "Swingers", Nate, since I don't think you understand what that word means.

Unless I just entered Bizarro-Earth and "Money" means "3-6"? Or is it just because he hasn't given up any bombs to opposing pitchers recently?

As for choosing Weaver over Lowe, I have to say, regardless of how much you may dislike West Nile, it's certainly a better fate than leprosy.

Well this should be fun...

#58. Did the pro-Weaver crowd just come scuttling out of the woodwork all of a sudden? What's up?

What's up is this: We need to create a market for him so that DePo has his pick of great offers for him between now and the 31st.

Which one's the leper?

64- The only market for Weaver is on the El Porto All-Star Surfing Troupe. I would gladly accept an overpriced autographed photo of Tanyon Sturtze in exchange for Jeff Weaver's contract.

66 - I'm getting all nostalgic and weepy. I miss Weaver-bashing. I think it's amusing that at the beginning of the season all the stories were about how Lowe and Weaver were working together on their sinkerballs. Maybe Weaver finally told Lowe to go stuff it.

And there's really nothing wrong with our staff that can't be explained by the fact that Carrara is second on the team in wins.

I would trade Weaver, because Boras is his agent, and there is no possible way that Weaver could ever be worth what Boras would want for him, even if he was the second coming of Christy Mathewson. Boras's single goal is to make his players richer and their teams worse.

The White Sox have DFA'd Shingo Takatsu. Time for some bullpen help.

(Ducks and hides from Steve's rock being thrown across several states.)

weaver: 2.36 ERA in his last seven starts

Did Mr. and Mrs. Sturtze really get together after their son's birth and decide the perfect name for their new little Sturtze was "Tanyon"?

Mark, with all due respect, you're nuts. The last sixs so Weaver's ERA has been just above 2.00:

G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB ERA WHIP BAA
June 6 6 2 3 0 0 0 41.1 28 15 12 5 9 31 2.61 0.90 .192
July 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 19.0 15 7 6 2 6 12 2.84 1.11 .211

He's a new #3 pitcher, or better, for any team that gets him.

that got garbled...the last six weeks it should say.

What happened to getting rid of Scott Erickson? Maybe DePo can magically package him along with Weaver. Naw, the red horns, pitch fork, and goatee would be a dead giveaway...

70 - He's only performing well to up his value... as soon as he's signed long-term he'll return to his true form just like any good Boras client.

You've totally got me, dzzrtRatt. I'm nuts. Weaver has managed to go on an absolute tear as of late, and has reduced his overall ERA to a miniscule 4.26. Clearly the man is worth every single penny of $10MM per year after arbitration.

In other news, Kevin Malone last seen trolling Dodger Thoughts...

#73-74,
For the record, I think you're nuts, too.

Nobody's singing the praises of Weaver as a new ace, but he's been one of our most reliable pitchers of late. Contrary to what you believe, he in fact, is NOT worthless.

#76
Oops. I mean #74-75

Mark is fundamentally correct.

I cool with keeping Spicoli. Perez is the real problem. He's horrible 70 percent of the time and has that nasty habit of blaming everyone but himself.

79. I'm not I

look mark, i'm not a huge weaver fan, but his ERA has been affected by a few really lousy starts. 15 out of his 20 starts have been good ones. his really bad starts were in his self-admitted "dead arm" period. when he's been physically capable, he's pitched well, and he has consistently pitched well since the end of may. you're being just as irrational as you say weaver's supporters are.

55. Pretty sad when we have to look forward to the 2008 pitching staff to get a warm fuzzy. Maybe the team will be contracted by then, and Depo can write a best selling book called Destructo Ball.
vr, Xei

There are 2 (or more) different points being argued.

Is Jeff Weaver worth $10 mil? (pointless to argue since it's him or Brown and he's better, obviously)
Is he any good? (yes, he isn't worthless that's for sure)
Should we trade him? (trade him gets help, either now or down the road, but not trading him will net us draft picks or the possibility of re-signing him)
Could we trade him if we wanted? (his salary could be a factor in his tradeability, but he does have value)
Should we re-sign him if we don't trade him? (probably not)

1) Nobody is confusing Weaver with, oh I don't know, somebody that can have a 2.something ERA over an entire year.
2) Weaver is worth more than Sturtze himself, and worth at least 500 autographed Sturtze pictures.
3) It's not unreasonable to think Weaver's even more valuable to some GM's in pennant races. Say, 1000 autographed Sturtze pictures.

And really the primary reason I think you're nuts...
4) Wins are a horrible way of comparing the "money"ness of a pitcher.

Clearly the man is worth every single penny of $10MM per year after arbitration.

This is Mark's point (made in ironic pentameter), and I don't see how it is disputable.

83. exactly.

maybe he's not worth $10 million, but then considering what other pitchers are getting that kind of money, maybe he is. he hasn't sucked nearly as much as you guys (mark, steve) seem to think.

Oops on #83,
The first (non-numbered) point I made should read:
"Is Jeff Weaver worth whatever we're paying him now?"

Weaver is ranked 27th among NL starters in VORP. He was 19th last year. So he's a soft #2 starter or a solid #3. Burnett is 22nd in VORP if you adjust for his 2 fewer starts. Hey they're both 6'5", 28 yrs old and kinda weird. But Burnett's perceived value is around 50% higher because of 2 K's/9 and a 2001 no-hitter.

he hasn't sucked nearly as much as you guys (mark, steve) seem to think.

Well, he has, and then he stopped for awhile.

I'm basically also in agreement with 83. Weaver at the end of May was valueless, and his 0.0 VORP told us so. He's gotten better, but there's no reason to think he's any more than this, particularly since like Lowe, his HR rate has shot through the stratosphere, and would be the story if Lowe wasn't single-handedly torching DePo's GM career. He's not worth $10 million, he's probably not worth 5, we should trade him for whatever, and if we can't, we should give him a hearty handshake and send him on his way. The presence in our system of Billingsley, Broxton, and Tiffany (and hopefully Hochevar) make this doubly so. These guys have to have a place to come up, and with Lowe and Perez stealing money until 2008, Weaver has to go.

76- "but he's been one of our most reliable pitchers of late."

Apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

People, please, get a grip. Stop being so accepting of mediocrity. In salary terms, Jeff Weaver is almost 30 times the pitcher than D.J. Houlton is. After arbitration he'll be paid twice the amount that Penny is being paid. Unless your last name happens to end in the letters "lemens" or "alladay", guess what, you aren't worth $10MM per year. Dump Weaver, put Houlton in the 4 spot, suck up a couple of extra losses this year, and save the money for a decent pitcher in the offseason.

#89,
I probably agree with you on whatever point you're making. You just don't realize it.

Because Weaver, relative to other comparable pitchers, may get $10M a year, does NOT mean he is worth $10M a year. A smart GM would trade him away in a heartbeat. I wouldn't pay a guy with the following career numbers
ERA WHIP BAA
4.46 1.33 .270
$10M a year... Lowe's numbers are a little better, but not by much.

Can anyone argue that he should make more than Penny?

I'm sure Boras would say Weaver wasn't injured for half of a full season, but the response to that is Penny's younger and has had more success in the regular season and playoffs.

I might see reason in an argument that says Weaver should make as much as Penny, but how on earth could you argue he should make more??

89 - ...and save the money for a decent pitcher in the offseason.

And there's another problem... who's available? From what I understand the SP market is weak next year.

92 - That's reasoning for, i suppose, a hypothetical extension arguement. Of course, the highest bidder in a FA market might not care how much Penny makes.

Who are our starting pitchers next season?
Penny
Lowe
Perez
Houlton
Thompson
Am I missing somebody?

going by last names, there IS a pitcher in the hall of fame whose last name ends with -eaver....

92 - Penny's '05 numbers would indicate he is worth more than Weaver:
------------ERA WHIP BAA HRs
Weaver --4.26 1.23 .257 18
Penny ----3.33 1.17 .257 6

The difference here being that I think Penny has way more composure when it comes to getting out of jams and does not give up the long ball as much (especially to opposing pitchers.)

update:
martin- 0-2
laroche- 0-2 1k
guzman- 0-2 2k
young- 1-1 1bb
loney- 1-2

I think we've slipped into one of those Monty Python offices that say they sell Argument but instead offer Contradiction.

Weaver isn't making $10MM. If an arbitrator gives him $10MM, by definition that's the "market" for a pitcher like him. Doesn't mean the Dodgers will ever have to pay him that much, and they'd be stupid if they did. So I'm not sure why we're arguing whether he's worth $10MM. He's also, by the way, not worth $50MM, if that contributes to the discussion.

My happiness in watching Weaver mow down batters since the beginning of June is not because I imagine him on the mound for the Dodgers during the 2005 Fall Classic, but because I imagine another GM imagining him mowing down batters for their team. What's it going to be worth to them to make this dream come true? Mark said Weaver's "worthless," so his answer is "nothing." I disagree. I think LA can get a position player who will make an impact in 2006, a major league player with solid offensive numbers from a contender, in exchange for Weaver. So he's not "worthless."

In a few months, Weaver will only be worth a draft choice...unless we want to pay him $10MM. At which point, Mark and I will probably agree--don't do it. But given the state of our major league team vs. our farm system, I'd rather get a major leaguer who can hold down 3B, 1B, LF, RF or catcher better than who we've got now. 2006 would be a lot more fun if we could do that.

To make Weaver worth a draft choice, the Dodgers would have to offer Weaver the chance to be deemed worthy of $10MM by an arbitrator first.

While browsing through the salaries database, I noticed that Weaver is the 51st-highest-paid player, and the 15th-highest paid pitcher, behind such gems as Kevin Brown ($15.7MM), Chan Ho Park ($15MM), and Double-D himself ($11.4MM).

I don't see anyone (fortunately) arguing that Weaver should be a Dodger in 2006. If I'm mistaken, please don't let me know.

The good news, per Bob's note, is that Weaver is probably pitching himself into a position where we can offer him arbitration, and he can turn it down in search for a decent multi-year, which will be a disaster for whichever team drinks the "Milton Kool-Aid."

There is no 'price list' for pitchers, written down somewhere like in a Saturday newspaper insert ("Righthanded Sinkerballers for just $9M per season! Free shipping if you buy before August 1!"). The market is fluid, and the value of a player is determined by whomever bids the most for their services. As we saw last year, the Tigers were able to at least partially destroy the market for 4 or 5 players even though they signed only one (Lowe, Drew, Beltre, Ordonez, Percival). What are each of these players worth? More than the second-higest bid.

To say player or pitcher X is not worth Y may be true when compared to their peers in the abstract sense - Weaver has X Win Shares or VORP or EQERA for $9M and Houlton is half as good but makes 1/30 of the money, therefore Weaver is no good. The problem with the reasoning is that in a decision-making situation, few if any of these peers can be readily obtained.

To say that Weaver's performance doesn't merit $10M compared to the performances of his peers doesn't change the fact that better pitchers simply may not be available. If he makes your team better than any available alternative, and you have $10M to spend, use it to put the best team on the field that you can. The alternative could be something like "We're going to keep Erickson because we don't think Weaver is worth $10M per year."

Nowadays, based on last season and most predictions for this upcoming offseason, mediocre pitchers cost $7-10M. That's reality, and perhaps an argument against dealing any of our young minor-league arms for MLB talent other than a starting pitcher.

Free shipping if you buy before August 1

Dammit. They need to pay for the plane ticket too. This isn't Amazon.com

103 - In arbitration, pitchers with similar service time and numbers are consiered in determining who's submitted salary will be chosen. So, in that respect, there is a price.

Of course in a FA market, it's often whoever (cough, Minaya, cough) offers the most $.

crap!!! stupid wind. laroche had a homerun, wind pushed it foul.

103- "If he makes your team better than any available alternative, and you have $10M to spend, use it to put the best team on the field that you can."

That's just it. If you're willing to believe that Weaver will ultimately pitch like his career line, then you can get away with putting up a DJ Houlton type in the 4 spot, and use the 9.6MM left over to sign JD Drew's clone, to fill in when Drew gets hurt and to boost the rapidly-decaying offense. That is a better alternative to Weaver losing a 2-0 game.

Do not offer arbitration. Do not sign to an extension. Do not pass Go. Collect $10MM.

Hey Nate. Are you using Media Player 10? I can't get the stream to work for some reason.

im using media player 9 and its working fine. i have the radio link going too.

I would be stunned if the Dodgers let Weaver go without offering arbitration if he is still on the team at the end of the year. Nontendering him would be idiocy. I'm sure he will be a Type A Free Agent. That's something of value.

105 - that's true, but the 80%(?) rule still applies - Weaver can't make less than $7.5M or so in arbitration, which would still put him in the 'overpaid' category in the minds of many members of this community.

107 - That assumes the availability of a JD Drew clone (hmm, maybe if we cloned him, we could surgically transplant replacement body parts to keep him healthy) at $9M. Drew finished 6th in the MVP voting last season. How many players are there total in both leagues that meet his career performance line? How many are available? How many cost only $9M?

Weaver's not great. He may not even be good. It's likely that trading him is the best course of action (I think it is). I'm more arguing against the logic of "We can't keep a player because he'd be overpaid," even if the alternative is DJ Houlton- or Scott Erickson-type. If you want a team with a $100M payroll, you have to overpay for at least a couple players here and there. Overpaying can be (but isn't always) better than being mediocre because you weren't willing to pony up some extra cash.

Bob, the gamble with offering him arbitration is that he'll accept it, either because he wants to keep surfing on his off days, or he has a great dealer in town, or whatever. This is why I think that he'll get packaged up as part of a major salary dump.

martin threw out a runner.

Nice Weaver discussion going here today. Enjoying the dialog. Did some number crunching today with my lineup generator program. What I did is instead of entering a lineup with 9 different people, I just entered the same person with the same stats for all 9 hitters. Ran 30,000 game simulations and came up with an average runs scored per game given the same player was every player in the lineup. Crunched for 3 players:
Saenz: 5.661 runs per game
Choi: 5.371
Beltre: 3.869

if he accepts it, its not the end of the world. we get weaver for one more yr to bridge the gap to our pitching prospects.

How does your line-up simulator work? A computer program? Did you make it yourself?

Seriously, how much money could it cost to clone a human being? Does anyone have any figures about what the research behind Dolly cost? Those guys can be bought for $10MM, I bet. Let's dig up the remains of Ted Williams, wherever they are, and pull a Jurassic Park on the National League.

Ted isn't buried, he's in a cryo-vat in Arizona. I'm serious. It was a big news story.

man guzman is 0-3 with 3ks. not very good. hes having trouble with this soft tossing lefty.

Maybe arm angles are a factor?

116. Yes, computer program that I made myself. I make a text file that has players name, obp, abs, 1bs, 2bs, 3bs, hrs and a speed rating. Then use a random number generator to determine the result. Runners with more speed are more likely to advance an extra base on a hit etc..., there are some minor flaws in the sense that all outs are treated as the same, a strike out, so there are no double plays, no sac bunts, no advancing the runner on a ground ball or fly ball. I think this all evens out, or doesn't make much of a difference. I will eventually program that stuff in as best I can, once I can get my hands on some meaningful data. GB/FB ratios is a good place to start, along with what percentage of outs made were strike outs. First things first! :)
vr, Xei

Guzman just struck out for the 101st time. He leads the league.

Maybe arm angles are a factor?

could be. also all the changeups being thrown up there is throwing guzman off balanced as well.

I would not mind seeing Weaver here next year under the following conditions:

1) Signing him does not inhibit our ability to acquire other things we need (via trade/money to work with).
2) There are no other pitchers worth getting available to us.
3) He signs for 1 year.

(assuming we don't trade him, and I think trading him is the best idea, mind you)
Is there a way to not offer him arbitration until after we find out what else we can get?

Arbitration would guarantee one more year only, so he does not inhibit our prospects.

Basically I'm saying, if it were for only one year, and the choice was Weaver or nothing, Weaver at "our budget (not including mid-season leeway)" minus "our current salary total" is better than nothing.

Or maybe I'm nuts.

DePo's reign is going to be a test of whether "Moneyball" is viable in a big-budget environment. The careful weighing of VORP is a critical discipline for a team that has a payroll 25 percent the size of the leading contenders. But when you've got a rich budget, how do you decide when to overpay and when to stick to your VORPal sword? I have a sense that, for DePo, "Moneyball" is kind of an ad-hoc analytical tool rather than a discipline, to be applied as a comparative measure between two options, rather than an overall organizing principle for the entire team. It doesn't take a sabrematician to know that Shawn Green was grossly overpaid. But is Jeff Weaver "worth" $10MM/year? I guess it all depends.

#121,
Actually, one of my summer projects is doing something like that as well (programming a thing). I'm about 99.9% certain it won't be of any use to the baseball community, but it seems fine and I could learn something from it. It may be useful to analyze Tracy's moves mid-game, and that stuff. Plus I could brush up on my programming.

#126
fine = fun... I think I did what WWSH did once...

guzman with an error, 23rd on the season. bobbles an easy grounder, lost the ball transitioning from glove to throwing hand.

I think we should call any Guzman at SS related issues, "bananas."

As in, Guzman pulled another "banana." Or something to that effect.

ha. thats a good idea.

bananas it is!

125 - I expect DePodesta's big-budget version of "Moneyball" (whatever that is) to be like what the A's would look like if they kept Tejada, Chavez, Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden, and Damon all on one team for a number of years.

125. Beane and Co., were able to predict seasonal runs scored and runs given up (before the season started) given their offense and pitching staff, then use pythag thrm to predict how many wins they'd get. Of course when half your team gets injured, I think it throws most of your careful planning out the window and it becomes a how can we win as many games as possible while planning for and not compromising the future. I think the "Moneyball" will work for both small and large markets, but probably has a bigger rate of return for the small market teams. But big or small market, you want to get the most bang for your buck as possible. Nothing is gauranteed to work as the Dodgers proved this year, but it's all about giving yourself the best chance based on data.
vr, Xei

gammons said weaver could be on the move and the dodgers want to get rid of lowe and odalis.

loney 2-3.

i really like loney. he is one of those players that looks really smooth in the field and in the box but somehow the numbers dont show that.

nate,

you are literally killing me. I have a noose tied and everything.

Bob makes a good point. The draft picks we get for tendering Weaver might be worth more than whatever Juan Encarnacion-like nonentity we get for him.

So DePo wants to get rid of his whole staff?

I could have told him that in December.

#133 - Seems like every time I look at ESPN.com, more and more of it is behind the pay wall. Is that all Gammons had to say? Details?

If DePo can get someone to take either Lowe or Perez that would be proof of some kind of genius. Lowe especially seems like an albatross just now.

If we trade, say, two out of Odalis/Weaver/Lowe, are we banking on two of Jackson/Billingsley/Broxton to contribute significantly in 2006?

I like those young pitchers (except Jackson) just fine, but if we're supposed to seriously contend in 2006 what are we doing with 2 rookies and a Houlton in the rotation?

Perhaps the Dodgers are trying to acquire other pitchers for MLB position players/prospects?

132 - I think one of the biggest things is predicting performance rather than simply relying on the past year. The Yankees seem to just buy who ever had a good year last year, and now that half of those guys are worthless albatrosses (Giambi, Brown, Wright, Pavano) they are suffering. Meanwhile, the A's have had a scary knack for picking up players that are ready to break out. I think that using analysis like that will be very valuable no matter what the payroll.

it was on BBTN.

133. I find understanding Gammons very difficult, but he said something about other teams waiting to see if Weaver is available. He then mentioned "Lowe" and "Perez" without adding much.

For those still holding out hope for this year: The Padres just activated both Lorreta and Nevin.

#137 - From "behind the pay wall" on ESPN:

re: Adam Dunn -
"MARKET REPORT
It isn't every July you get a chance to trade for a 25-year-old with a better career home run ratio than A-Rod, Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle. But Dunn fits that description, and clubs that have talked with the Reds say Dunn is definitely on the market. There are indications the Astros have made him their No. 1 target -- with both of their top pitching prospects (Fernando Nieve and Taylor Buchholz) potentially being involved. The Reds, however, don't do anything fast (except release slumping closers). And they still aren't sure they'll even trade Dunn. Clubs speaking with the Reds say they're debating whether they'd rather deal Wily Mo Pena. And an official of one team that has been in touch with them says they'll "consider" deals for Junior Griffey (even though Griffey has said he'd veto any deal) -- but not Austin Kearns. Nevertheless, there's no bat on the market more attractive than Dunn. So the big question, between now and deadline day, is whether the Astros, Dodgers, Mets, Indians, Red Sox or anyone else can afford Dunn's humongous price tag."

trading lowe weaver and odalis would be quite a feat. i think it would be a fun project to accomplish.

133. Nate, was that on ESPN?

Let's just blow up the whole staff (except Penny) and just start over!!!!

#125: I would say that Theo Epstein's Red Sox are a pretty good example of Moneyball working in a big market environment. But, detractors like to just point to the failures instead of the successes.

Lowe may be dealable... he has the I-kicked-a**-in-the-playoffs moniker. Some GM is sure to find that irresistable.

i actually dont mind if we keep weave and odalis. just trade lowe.

#144 -

ESPN's "Top 10 names at the deadline" (in order, presumably)

1.Burnett
2.Lowell (?)
3.Dunn
4.Thome (good luck with that one)
5.B. Wagner
6.Randa
7.Chacon
8.B.Arroyo
9.Baez
10.T.Lilly

No Dodgers on the list, Dodgers only get a brief mention in the Dunn comment (#142)

I'm just going to have to pine for Dunn from afar.

Do you think somebody told Kenny Rogers that everytime somebody takes his picture, they steal a little bit of his soul?

I went to ESPN today and every non-headline article had the "in" thing-y next to it... I can't even think of a good come back for that it's so ridiculous.

trade lowe back to boston.

I find that baseballtonight.blogspot.com basically gives me all the information there is to get on ESPN without the Insider price.

#150 - It's not terrible. $5/month directly debited from your account. Get access to all content (Neyer, Gammons now) plus they send you ESPN the Mag, which is good for a flush per week.

#152 - It's not terrible. $5/month directly debited from your account. Get access to all content (Neyer, Gammons now) plus they send you ESPN the Mag, which is good for a flush per week.

You'll pay it when they put Kruk's articles behind Insider ;-)

Dang double posts. It was an accident - I don't really work for ESPN.com.

Lowe now is Weaver at the end of May, only with a contract that is four times worse. Meaning he is four times less valuable than Weaver was at a comparable point. He is not tradable until 2007, and even then he has to start pitching halfway decently. What team is going to want Derek Lowe eating three years of rotation time, even at half-price? Other than us, I suppose.

i refuse to give money to ESPN on principle.

Some of us have Insider access for free. For reasons unknown, I paid for it once and never got charged after that. That was like 7 or 8 years ago.

#157 - Their basketball coverage is better than their baseball stuff.

guzman and laroche are both 0-9 ABs.

in other news, our eventual replacement for izzy chin lung hu is 3-3 today and is currently batting .293

0-9 in their last 9 ABs.

You have to love ESPN's push to drive everyone into the blog world. A year ago I had ESPN as my homepage, now I go to it and I am bored in 5 minutes since the only opinions you don't have to pay for are on Page 2.

It's the way the internet is moving. This stuff ain't free. Better than pops, right?

157 - Yup.

What is weird is that you can get nearly any "real" journalistic article for free on the internet. Aside from the New Republic nearly every paper puts all of their articles online. However, ESPN is far to important to tell the world what Jayson Stark has to say everymonth. I am going into withdrawal without my "Totally useless Baseball Information" give me a hit of that insider please! (sarcasm)

Quality Start leaders since 4/1/04 (2005 ERA):

1 Roger Clemens 40   (1.47)
2 Roy Oswalt 38   (2.54)
3 Mark Buehrle 38   (2.58)
4 Jeff Weaver 38   (4.26)
5 Randy Johnson 38   (4.23)
6 Pedro Martinez 37   (2.60)
7 Doug Davis 37   (4.03)
8 Johan Santana 37   (3.84)
9 Livan Hernandez 36   (3.41)
10 Chris Carpenter 35   (2.34)
11 Carlos Zambrano 34   (3.60)
12 Tom Glavine 33   (4.71)
13 Dontrelle Willis 32 (2.83)
14 Greg Maddux 32   (4.51)
15 Brandon Webb 32   (3.64)
16 Bartolo Colon 30   (3.64)
17 Matt Clement 30   (4.21)
18 Freddy Garcia 30   (3.41)

loney with a line drive double down the right field corner! go loney!
3-4 on the night, all 3 hits off lefties.

166 - I wonder what the ERA's are during the period since it seems likely that many leaders are having off years this year (Glavine and Johnson especially).

166 - Good point big, but my impression has been that if you give Weaver 3 runs he'll give up 4; give him 4 he'll give up 5. I don't know that it is fair, but then again that 4.26 ERA isn't very good either. Does that mean that potentially he is coming unglued after 6 innings?

our eventual replacement for izzy chin lung hu is 3-3 today

gggrrrrrraaaacckkkk

Is Scott Boras a CPA? :)

I am surprised nobody has brought this up. Maybe because it is Choi-based, and we're sick of Choi.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-props-star-team/

Now here's the problem. Hee Seop Choi is high on two lists. On the first, he is surrounded by Morgan Ensberg, Cliff Floyd, Bobby Abreu, Tony Clark (!), Aramis Ramirez. Pretty good company. On the second, he is surrounded by Quinton McCracken, Juan Pierre, Cristian Guzman, JD Closser, Mike Lieberthal, Damian Easley, Sean Burroughs, and Jack Wilson. The absolute worst of the worst crap the majors has to offer.

So numbers guys. What does it all mean?

I know QS is unpopular but consider that Jake Peavy has allowed 4 ER or more in 6 of his 18 starts. Weaver 7 in 20.

Kevin Brown was shelled in the first, but Texas threw out some turd who got shelled worse. Who is it that keeps wanting to send Weaver to Texas? This idea continues to gain traction.

170 As I understand it one list is about predicted performance, the other list is about the difference between the prediction and the reality. The best players are all on the predicted list, while mostly crappy players are on the disparity list (since you are probably underperforming your expectation when you are OPSing in the low 600s). The list of people outperforming their predictions is mostly great players, which leads me to believe that the prediction works as a ranking, but the tails are not well represented. I would just be happy that Choi is number 9.

weaver to texas for danks and sinisi!

laroches BA has now fallen under 300 to .297

i guess he is not our savior after all.

re 172. So far, just me. Hopefully it will occur to someone who can do something about it.

175 - Yeah throw him to the wolves! I am sorry Andy, we like the HR, but this is Dodger baseball and we need a good batting average too.

Are we a 500 team with Bradley and Alverez back? I think that combined with Lowe being a mediocre pitcher (as opposed to an awful pitcher) Perez following suit and Choi playing everyday we could at least inch a couple games closer to 500.

sutherland is up to 215lbs now. wheres the power mate?

I just came home and had the perfect gift for summertime waiting on my doorstep! The Dodgers sent me the corrected version of the stadium blanket that was a giveaway back in April. It has a logo for each of the six World Series winners.

The original one given out honored the 1962 and 1966 champions.

The new one is correct.

HA, manny ramirez. anyone just see that?

Bases loaded for the Devil Rays and the Boston Pitching coach goes out to the mound. Manny decided to open a door and walk into the green monster, play resumes and Manny is still inside. He didnt get back onto the field until the second pitch.

Name the player!

"There are two more years left on (Mr. X)'s unwieldy contract, which, for all intents and purposes, make him unmovable. The (Team) long ago gave up hope that (Mr. X) would be a staff ace. They'd simply settle for a 30-start, 200-inning season in which he regularly gave them a chance to compete. Even asking that, however, may be wishful thinking, given (Mr. X)'s track record in (Town) and his five trips to the DL over the last three years."

Darren Dreifort? Jeff Weaver? No, it's Mr. Fabulous, Chan Ho Park!

Summarizing the latest rumors on ESPN's rumor central

Mike Lowell to Baltimore
Juan Pierre to the Cubs
Billy Wanger to Boston
Jeremy Affeldt to Florida
Mike MadDougal to Florida
A.J. Burnett to either Baltimore, Boston, San Diego, Toronto, the Angels, the Dodgers, or the White Sox
Kip Wells to either St. Louis, Arizona, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Toronto or Philadelphia.
Kevin Millar to Houston
Placido Polanco to the Cubs or Dodgers
Shingo Takatsu to Arizona
Vicenta Padilla to Texas

what a day for the vero beach dodgers.
abreu: 5-5 2b hr BA .328
hu: 4-5 2b, BA .294
kemp: 2-5 2b BA 293

i think delwyn young should get promoted, therfore allowing us to promote abreu to AA.

#184: And therefore allowing us to promote Travis Denker to Vero Beach. We all see where you're going wit this, Nate :).

Terry Francona let Alex Cora bat with 1 out and nobody on in the 9th.

He flied out to left.

Gravity is calling in Washington.

Colorado 5, Washington 4

although aybar has had a somewhat dissapointing season this year in AAA, he just hit his 26th double of the season.

so he has shown excellent gap/doubles power with low K rate and a good bb rate. all which is something i would gladly take for a switch hitting middle infielder. Who knows, maybe the power will develop.

186 - the more hilarious Alex Cora incident comes from yesterday, when Francona let him hit with the bases loaded and nobody out, against Mariano Rivera (whom he'd never faced), and the Sox down by three.

He hit into a double play. I laughed out loud.

Another take on Weaver. Since 4/1/04:

Mark Mulder
52 GS, 347.6 IP, 4.32 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 28 QS

Jeff Weaver
54 GS, 346.6 IP, 4.10 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 38 QS

Remarkably similar but that QS difference jumps out at you. So I looked at each player's Game Scores over the period:

Avg Game Score:
Weaver 52
Mulder 50

Then considered how often each guy pitched within 20% of his avg. Game Score. Kind of a rough standard deviation. Here's an example of a 20% miss:

6ip, 5h, 3er, 3k, 1bb - 52 GS
6ip, 7h, 3er, 2k, 4bb - 42 GS

% of Starts within 20% of Avg. GS:
Weaver 59%
Mulder 42%

I'd like to see a year-to-year correlation on 100 guys to see how information is really in that measurement.

Bob, I wasn't watching, maybe you weren't either, but can you please give an explanation for why Jamey Carroll pinch hit for Ryan Church in the ninth with two on and one out? It is of little comfort to the Church Family that the only good reason for this is that Ryan Church is dead.

Steve,
I think Frank Robinson will say that Church couldn't handle Brian Fuentes' arm angle.

"Old Friend" Kevin Brown went 4 1/3 IP for the Yankees tonight and gave up 6 R and 10 H, including 2 HR.

But the Yankees are ahead.

"Old Friend" Wayne Franklin is pitching now for the Yankees. But Dodgers fans use that ironically for Wayne of course.

Bernie Williams just dropped a routine popup allowing Texas to score two runs to tie the game back up.

Atlanta got back to back home runs from the Joneses and lead San Francisco 3-0 after one.

It was a 2-run homer from Andruw and a solo homer from Chipper.

So much ineptitude surrounding us, and yet all we can do is mimic it.

Maybe if the Yankees are desperate for a good glove in center, they can overpay the Dodgers for Repko.

It could be a Repko-Crosby reunion!

Jorge Sosa of Atlanta has worked out of trouble both innings.

He actually retired the Greatest Giant of Them All to get the last out of the second:

Michael Tucker

191, 192 -- wasn't watching either, but that's really pretty grim. It also seems that in the bottom of the 8th with the game tied, Guzman was allowed to "bunt" with no one out and Schneider on first. Struck out foul bunting. Now that strikes me as a fine spot for your Jamey Carrol to hit, though I understand that Frank Robinson will bunt in that spot 1,000 times out of 1,000. (And it's not the craziest of all possible spots to bunt.)

This may be the straw that broke the Ewok's back, however -- Robinson launched a big "I'm gonna bench Guzman if this thing doesn't turn around" trial ballon in the Post this morning. Now after Schneider goes 4-4 with Guzman 0-3 (but 1 walk!) behind him, seems like something's got to give.

Andruw hits another home run and it's 5-0 Braves.

Third place for the Dodgers will be safe for another day.

Guzman is Robinson-crack. He can't quit now.

The Padres waived Dennys Reyes. Maybe he can comeback to L.A. and be our LOOGY!

Steve -- hadn't seen your post at FJY when I wrote 199.

Ooops -- I mean FFR

204 -- I should really franchise. But if Nats fans aren't going to take care of their own business, I'll do it.

I've been told that I'm not allowed to criticize Frank Robinson by Thomas Boswell. He's a real man. He's been through a lot. He's a Hall of Famer. He knows what the truth is. All Hail Frank!

And Thomas Boswell would know, he invented Total Average!

What's Jamey Carroll's Total Average?

The Braves have retired the Greatest Giant of Them All three times tonight!

Jamey Carroll is very scrappy, unlike that wuss Church who hit one lousy wall in Philly like a month ago and, like, says he got hurt or something.

Keyser Soze is my kind of scrappy.

Bob -- do you worry at all now that Icaros knows about your ESPN Insider platinum membership?

Fortunately, he's in Canada....

I really doubt that Icaros is going to sneak into my apartment just to read Peter Gammons Diamond Notes.

Indians and Cubs swap Gerut for Dubois respectively. Opinions?

Well, I think Rob Neyer is behind that gate too . . .

Humor from a Dodger fan in San Francisco listening to the Giants getting beat by the Braves,

Most of us on this site have realized for at least a month, that while there are occasional glimmers of hope from our team, the current make-up is not much more than a triple A team. Speaking of which Jose Valinten hit a 2 run homer for Las Vegas tonight.

However, in listening to the Giants broadcast this year it has been just so laughable to hear them be so shocked that the Giants continue to lose games. The expectations for them must have been projected by all in house pols. But the comment that killed me was made by David Fleming with the Giants down 5-0 in this game and leaving men on base, his comment was, "the Giants played so well in LA" but have been unable to score against the Braves! WHile they beat us 3-4, the Jason Schmidt performance Thursday was far from brilliant and the win yesterday didn't seem to be a dominant one, despite the score. I only hope when healthy the Dodgers can at least capture second and we can all get a good laugh if the Giants finish fourth.

Pretty much everybody is behind Insider now.

The Yankees have moved back into first place, so the ESPN gods have been appeased.

William Westmoreland passed away today.

(No "body count" jokes please; if I can resist, anyone can.)

In the NY Times Corrections page, they have this:
An obituary on Jan. 6, 1993, about William G. McLoughlin, an emeritus professor of history and religion at Brown University, misstated the date and cause of his death. Professor McLoughlin died on Dec. 28, 1992, not on Jan. 4, 1993; the cause was colon cancer, not liver cancer. The article also misstated the location of his World War II military service. It was at Fort Sill, Okla., not in Europe. The Times learned of the errors through a recent e-mail message from a family member.

Glad that's all been straightened out.

But what about my correction I sent in? In the NYT obit for Mickey Owen the headline and story said that Owen had a crucial passed ball in the 1941 World Series.

But it wasn't a passed ball. It was an error.

The AP obit said that Owen "allowed a dropped third strike."

This sort of stuff is what I get pedantic about!

220 = As a stand in for the river Styx, suggest we chuck him in the Rop Grande.

Rio grande...

#188: I do think Aybar will develop some pop. Like you said, the doubles are a really good sign, and he did hit 15 homeruns last year in a tougher park. I also wonder if his numbers need to be as heavily adjusted as others (Nakamura, Myrows, etc.), since they aren't propped up by PCL-aided homeruns. Unfortunately, I don't know how well the PCL parks play for doubles.

#224: I'm going to a 51s double-header tommorrow night so I'll try to come back with a scouting report.

I wanted to get a sense of what it would take to get to each of the potential win totals necessary to take the NL West (81 - 90). Then for each win total, I looked at what record it would require for the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers, and the corresponding winning percentage. Here are the results.

90 Wins:
San Diego: 40 - 29, 0.580
Arizona: 45 - 23, 0.662
LA Dodgers: 49 - 21, 0.700

89 Wins:
San Diego: 39 - 30, 0.565
Arizona: 44 - 24, 0.647
LA Dodgers: 48 - 22, 0.686

88 Wins:
San Diego: 38 - 31, 0.551
Arizona: 43 - 25, 0.632
LA Dodgers: 47 - 23, 0.671

87 Wins:
San Diego: 37 - 32, 0.536
Arizona: 42 - 26, 0.618
LA Dodgers: 46 - 24, 0.657

86 Wins:
San Diego: 36 - 33, 0.522
Arizona: 41 - 27, 0.603
LA Dodgers: 45 - 25, 0.643

85 Wins:
San Diego: 35 - 34, 0.507
Arizona: 40 - 28, 0.588
LA Dodgers: 44 - 26, 0.629

84 Wins:
San Diego: 34 - 35, 0.493
Arizona: 39 - 29, 0.574
LA Dodgers: 43 - 27, 0.614

83 Wins:
San Diego: 33 - 36, 0.478
Arizona: 38 - 30, 0.559
LA Dodgers: 42 - 28, 0.600

82 Wins:
San Diego: 32 - 37, 0.464
Arizona: 37 - 31, 0.544
LA Dodgers: 41 - 29, 0.586

81 Wins:
San Diego: 31 - 38, 0.449
Arizona: 36 - 32, 0.529
LA Dodgers: 40 - 30, 0.571

I'd say at least 84 wins is likely for the Padres, which would mean the Dodgers need to play at least .614 baseball from here on out. Once Burnett is off the market, it's time to see what we could get for one of our pitchers.

Harold Reynolds on the proposed trade to Baltimore: "Daryl Ward is a great pick-up. He' a guy who has turned a corner and will continue to benifit them"

Ha Ha. What corner? The corner to the all-you-can-eat-buffet? Good luck Baltimore. You can hold a "Which Trade Sucked More" contest: Sammy or Daryl?

Regarding the Lou Pinella eruption after the call at first base:

The umpire was none other than Dana DeMuth, of Oscar-Robles-foot-off-the-bag-in-St.-Louis fame.

can we trade lowe, weaver and odalis yet?

Michael Wilbon becomes disaffected with Bill Plaschke?

http://tinyurl.com/a2bs9

So, today on Dodger Thoughts, are we going to have a nice discussion about why we should offer Darren Dreifort arbitration?

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Happy Holidays to all Dodger fans.