Random Dodger game callback

July 19, 1933

The worst two teams in the National League duked it out at Crosley Field and saw a game befitting both teams as the Reds went through four pitchers, but held on for a 6-5 win over the Dodgers. The Dodgers fell to 36-47 and were 13 ½ games behind the Giants and in seventh place.

Brooklyn scored twice in the first and knocked out Reds starter Silas Johnson after just 1/3 of an inning. Ray Kolp relieved and pitched 6 2/3 innings and gave up just one run during that time.

Meanwhile, the Reds went to work on Dodgers starter Walter "Boom Boom" Beck. The Reds scored a run in the second on a ground out. In the second, Kolp singled and came around to score on a home run by Chick Hafey.

In the seventh, the Reds broke a 3-3 tie when third baseman Sparky Adams squeezed home Jo-Jo Morrissey. In the eighth, Beck gave up a run and was sent to the showers in favor of Rosy Ryan who gave up another run to make it 6-3 Cincinnati.

Cincinnati manager Donie Bush brought in reliever Bobby Smith to start the 8th and he faltered in the 9th. He walked two, made an error and then a single by Dodger third baseman Joe Stripp made it 6-5. Bush pulled Smith and brought in Paul Derringer, who was going to suffer through a 7-27 season. But Derringer was able to strike out Hack Wilson to end the game.

The Dodgers finished 1933 with a terrible 65-88 record and 26 ½ games behind the Giants in sixth place. It was quite a disappointment after the Dodgers third place finish the previous year and the second division finish cost manager Max Carey his job after the season.

1933 was the first year of the All-Star Game. The Dodgers representative that year was second baseman Tony Cuccinello, who batted .252 with 9 home runs. Outfielder Johnny Frederick batted .308 and catcher Al Lopez batted .301.

The pitching staff was nothing special. Beck went 12-20. Ownie Carroll was 13-15. Van Lingle Mungo had a respectable 16-15 record with a 2.72 ERA.

There was going to be a new manager coming to Brooklyn in 1934. He would be a famous name, but he wouldn't be a famous manager until long after he left the Dodgers.

Thanks to the New York Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet

Thanks for the RDGC Bob... kinda reminds of this year's team.

Alright. Time to discuss whether we should offer DD arbitration. Your thoughts?

Drief would submit his salary proposal of 1M, and the Dodgers would submit theirs of -55M.

Minor League Update
Statistical summary format is AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters and ERA/IP/K/BB for pitchers.

Las Vegas 51s (AAA):
The 51s beat Colorado Springs 6 - 1.

Milton Bradley came on as a pinch-hitter in the top of the 4th and stayed on in center field for his third rehab appearance. Bradley went 2 for 3 with a run scored, an RBI, and a caught stealing (.375/.375/.375). Bradley's two singles came facing right-handed pitching, the first two left-handed at-bats of his rehab stint. Jose Valentin started at third base, going 2 for 3 with a double, a homerun, a run scored, and 2 RBIs (.600/.600/1.400). Valentin was pulled for a defensive replacement to start the bottom of the 5th. Second baseman Willy Aybar went 2 for 4 with a walk, a double, and a run scored (.298/.366/.441). First baseman Norihiro Nakamura went 0 for 5 (.271/.337/.538). Nakamura moved to third base to fill in for Valentin. Center fielder Todd Donovan went 2 for 4 with a walk and a run scored (.351/.419/.378). Backup catcher Mike Nixon went 2 for 3 with a walk and 2 runs scored (.195/.236/.232).

Starting pitcher Harold Eckert pitched a magnificent game, allowing just 1 run over 7 innings of high altitude baseball in Colorado Springs. Eckert gave up just 2 hits (1 homerun) and a walk while striking out 10 (5.12/91.1/87/41). Relievers Beau Dannemiller (6.35/11.1/12/8) and Pat Mahomes (5.22/70/51) eached pitched an inning of scoreless relief to complete the game.

Jacksonville Suns (AA):
The Suns lost 3 - 2 to Birmingham.

The Suns weren't able to get much going against Birmingham pitching, managing just 7 hits and 2 walks. First baseman James Loney had 3 of the Suns hits, going 3 for 4 with a double and a run scored (.279/.360/.396). Second baseman Delwyn Young went 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored (.292/.344/.477). Young has been playing well enough for a promotion and at 23 years old, the challenge would likely be good for him. Young is already on the 40-man roster so he could see some major league action once rosters expand. Catcher Russell Martin, third baseman Andy LaRoche, shorstop Joel Guzman, and right fielder Justin Ruggiano went a combined 0 for 16 with 9 strikeouts. Martin (.313/.435/.415), LaRoche (.297/.373/.527), and Ruggiano (.273/.333/.364) each struck out twice, dropping LaRoche's average below .300 for the first time since joining Jacksonville. Guzman struck out three times and committed his 23rd error in the field (.282/.346/.489).

Starting pitcher Eric Hull pitched 6 quality innings, allowing 2 runs (both earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts (3.66/91.0/94/37). Jason Olson pitched 2.2 innings, allowing 1 run (earned) on 2 hits (1 homerun) and a walk with 1 strikeout (5.34/59.0/54/35). Olson, a 27 year old right-hander, is one of the few non-prospects on the Suns team. Left-hander Carlos Alvarez came on as a LOOGy to get the last out in the 9th with a man on second (4.32/8.1/12/1). Alvarez allowed a hit to the only batter he faced, but left fielder Nick Alvarez nailed the baserunner at home to end the inning.

Vero Beach Dodgers (High-A):
The Dodgers won 11 - 5 over Dunedin.

Every starter except third baseman Jimmy Rohan reached base in the game, as the Dodgers combined for 17 hits and 2 walks. Second baseman Tony Abreu went 5 for 6 with a double, a homerun, 3 runs scored, and 5 RBIs (.327/.354/.452). Shortstop Chin-lung Hu went 4 for 5 with a double, 2 runs scored, and 2 RBIs (.294/.334/.418). Hu is likely the Dodgers shorstop of the future if Guzman is defensively unable to play the position. Hu's defensive skills are well regarded and he has a little pop in his bat (.124 ISOp). Right fielder Matt Kemp went 2 for 5 with a double and 2 RBIs (.293/.329/.598). Designated hitter Cory Dunlap went 0 for 3 with a walk, a sacrifice fly, a run scored, and a strikeout (.277/.371/.367).

Starting pitcher Danny Muegge received a no-decision allowing 3 runs (earned) in 6 innings pitched. Muegge did not pitch particularly well, allowing 9 hits (1 homerun) and a walk while only striking out 1 (3.48/75.0/48/24). Justin Simmons relieved, allowing a hit-by-pitch and a double and only registering one out (4.03/48.0/33/19). Casey Hoorelbeke allowed the inherited runner to score on a wild pitch, but then proceeding to shut Dunedin down for 1.2 perfect innings with 2 strikeouts (1.80/60.0/43/24). Hoorelbeke, a 25 year old right-hander, attributes his success this season to dropping down and throwing sidearm. Jonathan Figueroa pitched a scoreless 9th, allowing just 2 hits with no strikeouts (4.88/59.0/40/40). The appearance was only Figueroa's second relief appearance of the year, with 12 of his previous appearances coming as a starter. Figueroa, a 21 year old right-hander, was signed by the Dodgers as an amateur free agent in 2002. So far, he has taken a slow path through the minors, spending 2 years in the Sally League before being promoted to Ver Beach late last year.

Columbus Catfish (Low-A):
Columbus lost both games of a double-header against Kannapolis.

In the first game, shortened to 7 innings, Columbus lost 7 - 2.

Travis Denker started at designated hitter and went 2 for 3 with a walk and a double (.291/.407/.526). Third baseman Blake Dewitt went 0 for 4 (.267/.316/.415). Right fielder Sergio Pedroza had the most frustrating game, going 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts (.263/.300/.316). After dominating the Pioneer League, Pedroza now has 7 strikeouts in 19 at-bats with Columbus.

Starter Chad Bailey did not make it out of the third inning, allowing 5 runs (2 earned) on 8 hits an no walks with 1 strikeout (7.64/22.2/14/8). Liam O'Flaherty pitched the last 4.2 innings in relief. O'Flaherty allowed 2 runs (both earned) on 3 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts (3.75/12.0/12/8).

In the second game, shortened to 7 innings, Columbus lost 2 - 1 in the first inning of bonus baseball.

The Catfish managed just 1 run while stranding 11 baserunners on 4 hits, 7 walks, 1 hit-by-pitch, and a Kannapolis error. Second baseman Travis Denker went 0 for 2 with 2 walks, a strikeout and a caught stealing (.291/.407/.526). Third basemann Blake Dewitt had 2 of the Catfish's 4 hits and scored the Catfish's only run. Overall, Dewitt was 2 for 3 with a walk (.267/.316/.415). Sergio Pedroza did not play in the second game of the double-header.

Starter Christopher Malone pitched a great game, but was left with nothing to show for it. Malone allowed just 1 run (earned) over 6 innings on 5 hits (1 homerun) and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts (3.95/98.0/89/30). Albenis Castillo was tagged with the loss allowing 1 run (earned) on 2 hits and 2 walks with 1 strikeout (2.56/38.2/32/16).

Ogden Raptors (Rookie):
The Raptors got crushed 12 - 3 by Helena.

The best offensive performance came from second baseman Jesus Soto. Soto went 2 for 4 with a double and 2 runs scored (.300/.339/.473). Shortstop Juan Rivera went 0 for 3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts (.261/.350/.330). Designated hitter David Sutherland went 2 for 4 with a walk and a run scored (.429/.508/.495). Third baseman Russell Mitchell went 1 for 4 with 2 RBIs and a strikeout (.330/.362/.642). Catcher Juan Apodaca went 1 for 4 with a strikeout (.313/.337/.625).

Three Ogden pitchers combined for terrible pitching performance from start to finish. Starter Marlon Arias took the loss, allowing 7 runs (4 earned) over 4.1 innings on 9 hits (2 homeruns) with 2 strikeouts (4.32/25.0/28/9). Cody White came on in relief to allow 3 runs (all earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks with 1 strikeout (7.71/23.1/19/16). Nathan Hochgesang finished the game, allowing another 2 runs (unearned) on 5 hits with 1 strikeout (4.00/18.0/12/7).

GCL Dodgers (Rookie):
The Dodgers lost 4 - 3 to the GCL Nationals.

Left fielder Scott Van Slyke started his first game with the GCL Dodgers. Van Slyke went 1 for 4 with a strikeout (.200/.200/.200). Third baseman Carlos Santana went 1 for 4 with a double, an RBI, and a strikeout (.333/.378/.513). Catcher Kenley Janson went 0 for 2 with a walk, a run scored, and a strikeout (.324/.342/.514). Eduardo Perez came on as a pinch-hitter, going 0 for 1 (.309/.397/.436). Designated hitter Matt Paul went 1 for 3 with 2 RBIs (.188/.188/.188).

Charles Dani pitched three scoreless innings, allowing just 1 walk while striking out 2 (5.95/19.2/15/8). Juan Flores pitched 1.2 innings of relief, allowing 3 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits, 2 walks, and 2 HBPs, with 1 strikeout (10.80/6.2/6/5). Wilfredo Diaz pitched 2.1 perfect innings of relief, striking out 2 (2.38/11.1/10/4). Gary Paris pitched 1.2 innings, giving up the winning run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th. The run was unearned on a strikeout wild-pitch followed by an errant pickoff attempt followed by a sacrifice fly. Frank Robinson would be proud of his little Nationals. Overall, Paris gave up 2 hits and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts (5.84/12.1/14/12).

#3: I believe that the arbitration salary has a floor of 80% of the current salary. If that's the case, I don't see any way the Dodgers would offer Dreifort arbitration. Additionally, Dreifort's performance will likely not make him worthy of any draft picks, so offering arbitration would have no benefit for the Dodgers. The Dodgers may consider signing him to a minor league deal if he was interested in coming back, but I don't expect much more than that.

#6,
#3 was just a reference to the last (or one of the last) posts from yesterday's open chat.

Isn't Dreifort through? I heard he's had so many body parts replaced and/or operated on that he's basically bionic... of course, he's no $6M Man, let alone a $55M one.

I guess the point of the joke was lost on those who don't instantly see a comparison between a pitcher whose signing was an epic joke and a pitcher who has actually been pretty good for the Dodgers, at a decent price.

Dodger fans used to be like Yankee fans. They assumed that because a player put on the Dodger uniform, it meant they were good. Otherwise, why would Campanis get him? Now we're more like long-time Cubs or Red Sox fans. We see a player in a Dodger uniform, and the first thought is, "what's wrong with this guy? How'd we get stuck with him"

Re: 8

My impression is also that Dreifort will finally retire after this season. In addition to all the knee problems that sidelined him, I think he also has the degenerative hip condition that ended Paul Shuey's career.

WWSH

#7/9: Yeah. I missed Mark's last post in yesterday's thread. It is pretty ridiculous to compare the two.

Pitcher A:

212 G, 5.99 K/9, .270 BAA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.46 ERA

Pitcher B:

274 G, 8.27 K/9, .251 BAA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.36 ERA

(Sung to the tune of Sesame Street's "Which one of these is not like the other...")

#12:

Pitcher A:

507 IP inn 2003, 2004, & 2005
Has not been on the DL in 2004 or 2005.

Pitcher B:

112 IP in 2003, 2004, & 2005
Spent all of 2005 recovering from multiple knee surgeries. Believed to have a degenerative tissue condition leading to general structural instability.

Or allow me to be Monty Hall for a moment and introduce you to Pitcher C:

379 G, 4.79 K/9, .282 BAA, 1.46 WHIP, 4.56 ERA

We have better options than Weaver, folks.

Darren Dreifort weighs about a buck 30 right now. The guy makes Tim Hudson look stacked.

Dreifort, what a sad, sad story. So much potential.

It sounds like it's personal between Mark and Weaver.

16- Not personal at all. I just think that a $10MM pitcher should be an ace, regardless of market fluctuations, percieved value, or whatever. I am genuinely surprised at the level of support that Weaver gets around here, when having him hang on for another year would be one of the biggest mistakes the Dodgers could make.

#14: I have a tough time figuring out how those numbers are a better option than Weaver.

There are two reasons the Dodgers will offer Weaver arbitration if he finishes the season with us.

1) Signing him for 1 year, even at $10 million is more valuable to the team than signing a multi-year deal with a similar caliber pitcher for less money per year. This is because we have a number of pitching prospects who will not be ready for 2006, but will be knocking on the door in 2007.

2) If Weaver does not sign with us, he'll likely be a Type A free agent, meaning we'll get a 1st round pick plus a 1st round supplemental pick from the team who signs him.

Comparing Weaver to other pitchers does nothing to counter either of these two points. If the Dodgers were considering signing Weaver to a multi-year, $10 million / year deal I would agree with you, but that's not what we're currently discussing.

#17: I agree that the market is ridiculous, but either we decide to go with a 4-man rotation next year, or we're going to have to deal with it. If the Dodgers don't get Burnett, there's practically no difference between Weaver and the other remaining pitching options. All I'm saying is that a 1 year / $10 million deal is much more valuable than a 3 year / $25 million deal (pretty much the market rate) because of the flexibility it provides. Add on top of that the opportunity to get draft picks if Weaver signs with someone else and it's a no-brainer to offer Weaver arbitration.

19 - There's nothing wrong with offering him arbitration. However, I think it's likely that we could get a greater value for him in trade than a first-round pick would net us, i.e., a player that can contribute in 2006 and 2007.

This assumes the team has a plan to fill out the rotation next year without him. I'd rather have a good young pitcher (even a bullpen arm) or quality LF than a draft pick, assuming a Weaver trade could net one or the other.

#14: Of course, there's also the possibility the carefully selected stats you displayed don't tell the whole story.

Pitcher A (2002 - 2005):

98 G, 5.88 K/9, .274 BAA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.38 ERA

Pitcher C (2002 - 2005):

35 G, 4.00 K/9, .308 BAA, 1.69 WHIP, 5.71 ERA

FB, kindly explain to me what the issue is with this rotation:

- Penny
- Lowe
- Perez
- Houlton
- Thompson, or Carlyle, or Mahomes, or Venafro, or Jackson, or Alvarez/Dessens, or a cardboard cutout of Darren Dreifort.

We clear up some budget room, we arguably don't have much worse of a rotation, we give the Vegas crew some valuable experience while at the tail end of the rotation, and we have the ability to go out and improve the offense. I certainly see that as better than Penny, Lowe, Perez, Weaver, and Houlton, with a smaller amount of flexibility in terms of upgrading the team.

#20: I agree. If we can net something more valuable in trade, I would go for it. The discussion is all about what to with him if that's not the case.

22 - a problem with that is Carlyle, Mahomes, Venafro, Jackson, Alvarez, and a cutout of Dreifort can't start at the ML level for a lack of skill or health. It also leaves us no passable options as fill-ins if (when) pitchers get hurt, because the fill-in types have been pressed into regular service.

A team with that rotation would need to score a ton of runs to be above-average.

Offering arbitration is a no-brainer here. Weaver is pitching just well enough that a one year contract (which I don't think would be at 10 million in arbitration) would not kill us (not like Lowe is going to), while his turning it down (which he will almost certainly do, given that he will certainly get at least a Perez/Milton multi-year) will get us the draft picks. That's the easy part.

The good news is that Weaver has pitched well enough to help us out in the sense of making that decision easy. He has also made the decision easy as far as a multi-year from us. What I'm hearing about Weaver right now is the same as how Malone defended the Dreifort contract. I can't believe after Dreifort and Park and Brown and Lowe, we would repeat the process for...Jeff Weaver?

#22: As a starter, Houlton has a 5.21 ERA. I'm fine with that for a 5th starter on a rebuilding team, but it's pretty terrible for a 4th starter on a team that hopes to contend. Houlton has shown flashes of potential and I expect him to improve next year but not by much since he's turning 26 in August.

Thompson could likely perform similarly to Houlton as a 5th starter, but not any better seeing as he's allowed way to many baserunners both with Las Vegas and with Los Angeles (over 1.5 / IP). Buddy Carlyle has already proven he can't handle major league batters. Pat Mahomes was moved to the bullpen in Las Vegas because he's not any good. Mike Venafro is a situational lefty, who's also not very good. Edwin Jackson can't even strike out AA batters consistently at this point. Wilson Alvarez can't start due to injury concerns that have popped up multiple times and are likely to require offseason surgery. Elmer Dessens has consistently been better out of the bullpen, and isn't very good. Additionally, I don't even think the Dodgers will pick up his 2006 option. Darren Dreifort I won't even get into.

The following rotation is not only better in every way, it's also deeper:

Penny
Lowe
Perez
Weaver
Houlton / Thompson

If we had a rotation of Penny, Lowe, Perez, Houlton, Thompson as you suggested, we would have very little pitching depth to deal with adversity, which as we've seen this year is a must.

#25: Is anyone suggesting offering Weaver a multi-year deal? That is, other than the lip service that's going on in the local newspapers.

27 -- You mean other than DePodesta?

And it's depressing to think that the starting rotation might be the same as this year's. Blah. Yuck. Ptooey. We're not going anywhere until Broxingsley gets up here.

Crunched some more numbers today, filling out a complete lineup with the same player netted these average runs per game (simulation size: 30,000 games, using 2005 stats as data).

1. Drew 8.855
2. Kent 7.233
3. Bradley 6.314
4. Saenz 5.718
5. Valentin 5.489
6. Choi 5.395
7. Perez 5.316
8. Ledee 5.314
9. Robles 4.774
10. Werth 4.277
11. Repko 4.027
12. Edwards 3.719
13. Izturis 3.523
14. Phillips 3.307
15. Grabowski 2.376

Conclusions: Unless Izturis turns it around Robles is a much better option. At the very least Izturis should be dropped in the lineup and he and Phillips should hit 7th and 8th. With Drew, Bradley and Valentin all out the Dodgers lose quite a bit of firepower. Two of the top 6 are first basemen, would be nice to move the older of the two for whatever we could get. With Grabowski being sent to the minors, Phillips becomes the new worst hitter that gets playing time.

Teams:
1. DBacks 4.979
2. Padres 4.898
3. Rockies 4.824
4. Giants 4.708
5. Dodgers 4.660

Conclusions: NL West can't hit a lick.
Note: This is from computer sims, and I'm not claiming it to be incredibly accurate or even have any scientific significance. :)
vr, Xei

You're seriously telling me that your simulations predict an all-Grabowski lineup would actually be able to score runs? Twice per game, no less?

I think you need to go back to work on that program, Xei :)

30. haha! Grabowski does have the strange line this year of only hitting either a single or a home run. Kind of odd that his hits were distributed like that this year (small sample size).
vr, Xei

#28: It is somewhat depressing, but the bullpen should be a lot better and we should be able to add an impact bat to the offense. I'd say this year's team was expected to win about .540 and next year's team could easily kick that up to .565.

32. we should be able to add an impact bat to the offense
Which position would you try to add that impact bat at? LF? make Werth your 4th OFer? 3B? How many years is Valentin signed for? C? relegate Phillips to backup, do you want to block Navarro? Thoughts.
vr, Xei

26 - The rotation might be deeper, but it's so much more expensive, and allows us less room in the coffers to be able to pick up the likes of Nomar.

30 - Well, yeah, some games he hits 2 homeruns, some he hits 3... he strikes-out looking the rest of the time. Could we get an animated version of Xei's program? I'd love to see a simulated "Grabowski Stare of Disbelief".

34 - HaHa... Nomar! (You are joking, right?)

It's really too bad Cincy isn't one decent starter from making the playoffs...

Col Blue, you are a little more optimistic than me about Penny's Over/Under line tonight. I am going with 6 1/3 due to the Philly offense more than anything else. Good luck with your 7 1/3 pick.
vr, Xei

33 - Werth is cheap enough that we can relegate him to a 4th/5th OF spot and pursue a top-25 outfielder in LF. I still am a Werth optimist, but he looked TERRIBLE in recent games, especially in the Friday Giants game, when I was sitting close to home plate. His bat never came within 6 inches of the ball.

Valentin is on a 1-year deal. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him back at $1.5-2.5M if we don't land a top-10 3B.

I hope Phillips get hot and we can trade him during the offseason, or even before the August 31 waiver deadline. I was excited to have Phillips this season as our 8 hitter - he's a league-average catcher for a league-minimum salary. He'll be arbitration eligible after the season, and I think it's likely that Navarro could match his production next year. Factor in the presence of Martin, and we should probably get Navarro enough playing time to pump up his trade value. If for some reason Martin doesn't pan out or stalls in the minors, we can keep Navarro.

Most significantly, we need a lineup where our SS or catcher can be the #8 hitter. We were in that position at the start of the season, and the deep lineup scored a lot of runs.

Yeah Xei, I hemmed-and-hawed alot over this one. Penny's been going between 6 and 7 frequently enough and I decided that since he only pitched 2 innings on his last start he may have more arm. That and I generally think he's p* off. I actually debated 8, but like you pointed out, Philly's O is strong.

OZ/FB, enjoy reading your posts. You guys are on a roll today. Well, not just today! :) Keep up the good work in Jon's absence.
vr, Xei

#39: I agree. Left field has been our biggest hole, especially in terms of production relative to average. If we could get a top outfielder it would have the largest impact on our offensive output. Werth could then move into a 4th OF role or perhaps platoon with Choi at 1B. Even last year when Werth was "good", the primary thing he did well was crush LHP. Additionally, outfield currently has the least depth in the minors, though that may change if some middle-infielders to remain nameless move there. I would try to sign Giles to a 3-year deal in the offseason, but if we can't get him for whatever reason, I think a 2-year deal for Matt Lawton would be a decent plan B. Lawton would be a great top-of-the-lineup type hitter to complement our already potent middle-of-the-order (Bradley, Drew, & Kent). I would be reasonably happy with the following lineup for next year:

Lawton (LF)
Bradley (CF)
Drew (RF)
Kent (2B)
Choi (1B)
Perez / Robles / Valentin (3B)
Phillips / Navarro (C)
Izturis (SS)

#42: I should have added that the only difference is that I would keep Phillips. He'll likely get $1.25 - $1.75 million in arbitration, but he'll provide good protection in case our rookie catchers struggle. I'm not confident that either of them will be able to exceed Phillip's offensive production next year. Even if they do, Phillips would still be useful as a backup catcher.

#43: And, it amuses me to watch Phillips run. That has to at least have some value.

#44,
That should crack the top 100 reasons we can still passionately watch the Dodgers. We should tell Scott Long.

By the way, this is off topic, but is there a website that calculates the expected win outcome for you (freely available to all)? I know I saw something like that referenced at the Hardball Times but I couldn't find it.

Are we not interested in trading Izzy anymore? Man, what a great package DePo could offer with Weaver and Izturis as headliners.

Anyway, my point is that in regards to FB's proposed lineup I'm thinking something a bit more radical:

Robles (SS)
Perez (2B)
Drew (RF)
Kent (1B)
Bradley (CF)
?????? (LF)
Valentin (3B)
Phillips / Navarro (C)

I think Kent could make the switch to 1st and Perez's glove will improve at 2nd. I'm assuming LF is filled by a trade of either or both of Weaver and Izturis; LF could move up in the order depending upon who said LF turns out to be. Plus you have an infield that can be rottated around pretty easily to give Choi and Saenz playing time. Also, Ledee and Werth as 4/5 outfielders is not bad insurance.

45. The Win Expectancy Calculator?
http://walkoffbalk.com/tools/winexp/index.php
vr, Xie

#47,
Exactly what I was looking for! Thanks, Xeifrank. By the way, how did you come up with your "speed" data for your program? Did you just make it up according to how fast people looked? ie, Bradley faster than Philips?

Off topic, but does anybody have any idea what Paul DePodesta's email address could be? What do you think the suffix could be? I've already tried paul.depodesta@dodgers.com and paul.depodesta@losangelesdodgers.com
What a find it would be to send him some of our ideas.
vr, Xei

#49,
Or spam him with "DFA SCOTT ERICKSON" emails...

48. Yeah, I just eye balled it from watching them run the bases. The higher speed rating you have the higher the percentages you have of taking an extra base. Not an exact science, but a quick and simple solution.
vr, Xei

50. I don't want to make his "Ignore" list. In the past I have actually corresponded two times with Mark Cuban. He stopped returning my emails. I guess I should've stopped calling him names! :)
vr, Xei

46 - Moving Kent to 1st hurts the team in the aggregate. His "awesome" bat becomes "average" relative to the position, and he can still play 2B just fine. I also think we should count on Perez remaining as a backup. A very capable backup, at that. Choi/platoonmate plus Kent should outperform Kent plus Perez significantly over the course of a season.

#52
Yeah I know what you mean. It would be pretty cool if he'd return emails from us. I get the feeling it could be a little rude though. Relaying him ideas he probably already has considered and all. Still, it'd be nice if he could "leak" things that continue to be unexplained...

53 - I'm not convinced that Kent/1B Platoon is better than Perez/Kent. Sure, the numbers might currently support it, but I don't think the there is enough data yet. If it weren't for Saenz's at 1B it wouldn't even be an issue and we know Saenz is not cut out to play more than 30 - 40% of the time. Plus, I think you can Kent for another year or 2 at 1B.

#53: I absolutely agree. Kent at 1B and Perez at 2B is a significant downgrade offensively and likely a downgrade defensively.

First, I like reading the posts here and respect the rationales behind everyone's opinions.

That written, TJ Simers is right: Dodgers fans (me included) are getting hopelessly out of touch with the reality of what a good Major League product looks like. To be content with a lineup that includes Robles, Valentin, Perez and Choi when there are better players -- considerably better ones -- available through trade or FA is ... well, settling.

Let's open the checkbooks. Spend some money. Trade some prospects and suspects for players that can make a difference. "This is L.A. Baseball," for heaven's sake.

Or is what we're seeing today "L.A. Baseball"? I hope not.

#55: Actually, more data is likely to show a Choi platoon at 1B with Kent at 2B to be even better than it currently appears. Choi has had a lot of bad luck offensively (see just about every study Hardball Times publishes) and Perez has had an even larger amount of good luck. Choi has put up very respectable numbers in his half of the 1B platoon, an .831 OPS. Even without Saenz we should be able to find someone to take over the other side (Jayson Werth, perhaps?) assuming Choi is never given a chance against LHP.

Your argument about Kent finishing his career at 1B is fine, but Kent is only signed for one more year, so why move him?

#57: Actually, what I think we're seeing is "Centinella Hospital Baseball". This season is already a bust, so there's no reason to sink a bunch of prospects in the process.

#59: Actually, I need to stop starting my sentences with actually. Grrr..

Choi don't need no stinkin' platoon.

57 - Can you say Kevin Malone?
58 - Just my humble opinion... and are Ken'ts offensive numbers as a 1B a downgrade?

#62,
The average 1B hits better than the average 2B. Kent is a way above average 2B (offensively), but not so much at 1B.

Maybe his offensive numbers as a 1B won't be a downgrade from current production, but Perez's numbers will be a downgrade from his. That's the big thing about having Kent as a 2B. It's easier to find a decent bat at 1B than it is at 2B.

57 - I had a discussion with a friend last night who had a somewhat similar sentiment as yours. He argued that the Dodgers should be spending more money on better players. Specifically, he wanted a better 1B, LF, and 3B (although he agreed that Beltre at $74M wasn't The Answer).

The point I disagreed on was that 'better' players aren't as readily available as we like to think. Name the Top 10 3B in baseball: off the top of my head, I get ARod, Rolen, Chavez, Ramirez, Glaus, Mora, perhaps adding Ensberg. That's not even 10 guys. How many of them were available last offseason? Just Glaus, who's making $40M over 4 seasons in AZ. How many of these players do you think would be easy to pry from their current teams for a fair price?

How many Top 1B were available last offseason? I can think of Delgado and Sexson. They're both playing pretty well, but are 33 and 31 years old, respectively, and will be in their late 30s by the end of their multi-year deals paying $10M+ per season. Should the Dodgers have overpaid (and that's what would have been required) to sign one of them, when our 1B platoon has been quite good this season for clsoe to free?

The point is, it's easy to identify players that are somehow better than what we've got. They're just not always available. As a GM, why would you trade away a good player with a good contract?

National League first basemen not named Derek Lee or Albert Pujols have been a rather indistinguished lot this year.

Phil Nevin
Chad Tracy
JT Snow
Todd Helton
Lance Berkman
Whoever plays first for Pittsburgh
Lyle Overbay (who's not bad)
Sean Casey
Whomever Frank Robinson picks that day
Julio Franco
Phillies first baseman of the day
Carlos Delgado
The less said about the Mets first basemen, the better

Are we sure Perez is doomed to regress to '03 numbers? I would say we can't make that determination yet. Yes, his numbers are a downgrades from Kent's, but they may remain an upgrade vs. Izturis. So might Roble's... with all of JT's musical chair playing we'll never know anyway because Kent's the only infielder who will ever play every day... and I hate that!

Izturis will play everyday. Even is he hasn't got a hit or taken a walk in a month, he'll bat leadoff or #2. Madness, I say.

Even IF.

Regress or not, I'd rather play Choi everyday over Perez (if you're still talking about Kent/1B platoon or Perez Kent).

Between Perez and Izturis and Robles is definitely a different question.

Robles, Valentin, Perez and Choi

Three of those four are the only players on the Dodgers who should give us hope. Valentin, not so much. I would love to hear Simers's defense of Cesar Newman, um, I mean, Izturis.

If Iz is in IF ft, LA no go

Fearing Blue,
Do you really think Brian Giles may sign with is this offseason? He seems to be the best bat I can think of available.

#72 should finish off with an "as well."

C'mon Steve... Izzy is the Heart-and-Soul... how could you?

72, I doubt it. Although it would be great if he did. Depo will likely pursue him but I think in the end he'll stay put in SD.

69 - Between Perez and Izturis and Robles is definitely a different question.

True, but what I'm hoping for is an end to platooning as we know it... if Kent's at 2B then the rest of the infield is awfully crowded. I would like to see Robles/Perez get consistent playing time (and no, not by JT's standards). But alas, you are correct about the offensive numbers being better with Kent at 2B...

If it helps, I'll allow Joel Guzman to move to right field if it convinces us not to give double digit millions to AARP poster boy Brian Giles.

Anybody know where there's a list of the players that will be free agents after this season?

Izzy play more? Team lose more?

Guzman won't be ready til 2007 at the earliest..

We need another bat, if just for a year, unless more mediocrity is desired.

Could the Plaschkers All-Stars (Jose Lima, Alex Cora, Charles Johnson, Darren Dreifort, Kevin Brown) even compete against Jacksonville?

80 -- Bring on the mediocrity -- it's the pitching staff that's mediocre anyway, not the lineup (at least in its non-injured state)

#66: I think that Perez's numbers will likely end up closer to his 2003 numbers then his 2005 numbers. His 2003 numbers match up with what you would expect based on his peripherals (K/AB, BB/AB, HR/AB). None of those peripherals have changed, so I think he's playing a fair bit over his head right now.

#83: But the only thing that really matters it that Choi is better offensively than Perez, since Kent at 2B is the same as Kent at 1B.

#75: San Diego may have to choose between Ramon Hernandez and Brian Giles. Considering they actually have some depth in the outfield, they could very well choose Hernandez.

#78: Though the site looks a little sketchy, the information seems to be accurate:

http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagent.html

#84 - sounds like we've resigned ourselves to the fact that the big bat is coming in the OF, which displaces Werth.

We don't need to choosed between Perez and Choi, if Perez stays at 3rd.

Perez playing third would have to be the last domino of the Tracy to the Reds scenario, because Tracy won't play him there with any regularity.

So who's the 3B then? Randa, Boone, ???

89 -- Don't threaten me! I'm just the messenger! :)

#90 - I think Offerman could hold down 3B. He is, after all, a "professional hitter".

(Now THAT was a threat, Steve)

DePo should have a fair amount to play with for his 2006 roster. If McCourt is serious about $100 million payroll, then we have 12 million available to get to that point. We will not be paying Green $10 MM next year and will save $5 MM more on Dreifort. Valentine is $3.5 MM and Weaver is $8 MM. We would have to fill 3B, 1B, LF, SP and hopefully a catcher who can throw from home to second faster than Saenz can run the ball there. We have our own prospects along with trades or FA's to fill those spots and $38 million available. If the talent is out there, $38 million per year should be able to fill 3 or 4 of those spots with excellent talent.

Where am I wrong?

Luck and a successful first baseman - First thing that came to mind, is that my boss doesn't care about my bad luck, he just wants results. Choi probably gives as much bad luck on defense, as he is given on offense.

One year of bad luck is often followed with one year of not-so-bad to good luck...

#92,
We don't have to fill 1B =).

Catcher is the last place we want to sign free agents, unless they are one year fill-ins, and we already have a one year fill-in level catcher with Phillips. Between Martin and Navarro, catching will be fine.

The only 1B available who would be better than Choi for the price is Adam Dunn, who would probably go on Tracy's "non-professional hitters" list.

We need pitching, pitching, a left fielder, a shortstop, pitching, and pitching, not in any particular order

Shortstop? Seems like we have two - the popular one and the good one.

#96,
Do you mean starting pitching or bullpen help or both?

After Burnett, what other starting pitcher is there to go for?

97 - Yup... SS isn't a problem. Actually it is since Tracy is in charge of it.

Help is just a phone call away:

Cincinnati Reds
OF Jason Romano has refused an outright assignment to Louisville and elected free agency.

After Burnett, what other starting pitcher is there to go for?

Billingsley, Tiffany, Hochevar, Jackson, et. al. Major League starting pitchers are crap on a stick anyway. I think we have to get through at least 2006 before our staff is in any shape to truly compete for the championship, and not just the lame NL West.

57. Who do you suggest you pickup to replace Valentin, Perez, Robles and Choi... and make sure you compare the cost to your four FA/Trade replacements to the four you mentioned.
vr, Xei

#101,
So let's just get some 1-year deals... hitting and pitching.

In today's Rumor Central for trades

Eric Byrnes to either St. Louis, Cleveland, Atlanta, Houston, or the Yankees
Danys Baez to either Washington, Florida, Boston, Atlanta, or the White Sox
AJ Burnett to (take a deep breath) Baltimore, Boston, San Diego, Toronto, LA (both of 'em!), White Sox
Billy Wagner to Boston
Mike Lowell to Baltimore or Pittsburgh
Shawn Chacon to Texas, San Diego, or the Yankees
Barry Larkin to Washington (coming out of retirement)
Juan Encarnacion to St. Louis or the Yankees
Juan Pierre to the Cubs
JC Romero to Boston
Adam Dunn to the Mets, Astros, or Dodgers
Ken Griffey to the Yankees or White Sox
Jason Schmidt to Washington, Texas, Yankees, White Sox, or Boston
Shingo Takatsu to Minnesota, San Diego, or the White Sox
Randy Winn to the Yankees

Adam Dunn can play Left Field!

#105 - Like a pregnant hippo (or Manny Ramirez, whichever is least graceful).

If JtD can play SS, Dunn can play LF.

105 - Only if he doesn't mind platooning with Werth... JT wouldn't wanted Dunn hitting against lefthanders.

#106 - The way Dunn hits, his defense in LF is irrelevant. Just the way it is for Manny.

In other news, Reggie Sanders and Craig Wilson both have broken bones very recently - Sanders broke a leg and Wilson's hand was hit by a pitch.

It was a huge mistake by each of their respective teams to sign such brittle players.

110. Were they signed by a computer geek?
vr, Xei

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for it. A Dunn, Milton, Drew OF with a Werth/Ledee platoon backing them up would be sweet.

Off topic, but what are the stats of the Replacement Player? a hitter...

Dave Littlefield is just a geek.

I'm not sure about Walt Jocketty, but it's a computer geek name don't you think?

Oh and DePodesta's email is googleboy@ladodgers.com

Paul Lo Duca can be reached at
heartandsoul@flamarlins.com

Shawn Green is at
provenveteran@azdiamondbacks.com

Guillermo Mota is at
ikeptgagnefromgettinghurt@flamarlins.com

Dave Roberts is at
iamreallyfastbutigethurtallthetime@sdpadres.com

Derek Lowe is at
iwishwereinboston@ladodgers.com

Frank McCourt just uses Hotmail I believe.

114. Thanks. Just updated my address book. :)
By any chance would you happen to have Adrian Beltre's address too?
vr, Xei

Adrian Beltre
flashinthepan@seattlemariners.com

116. An alternative would be
needbonechips@seattlemariners.com

Or boras4life@gmail.com

According to my sim, a lineup of 9 Adam Dunn's (given his 2005 stats, not ballpark adjusted) would net an average of 8.458 runs per game. From earlier calculations the only Dodger who outdid those numbers was JD Drew at 8.855
Conclusion: Dunn would be a nice fit, but at what cost? I think his contract is fine, I think his defense in LF is liveable considering the damage he does at the plate. I just worry about giving up too many of our pitching prospects as that is what we are really counting on for 2007 and beyond...
vr, Xei

I just hope that Jeff Gillooly's not a Mariners fan and Dodger Thoughts reader.

#119,
I hear you. Pitching is more important than Dunn..

119. eh, TINSTAAPP. bring me dunn. :) we can get rid of orendunn. or broxdunn, or jacksdunn, or brazodunn. whatever. dunn dunn dunn.

Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn

See you Braz. Nice knowing you.

Weaver + Izturis + Braz. No prospects. Bring on the entire AAAA team for 2005. Hah. I'm semi-serious.

#119: TINSTAAPP is why you have to stock up on many pitching prospects instead of attaching your carriage to one. Last year there was one top-of-the-rotation pitcher available (Martinez). This year it's likely to be the same (Burnett). So, unless we want to start paying $13 million a year for an Ace, I'd say we better hold onto as many potential top-of-the-rotation starters as we can.

#124: I'd be fine with that, but there's absolutely nothing the Reds would want with Weaver.

What does TINSTAAPP stand for?

123 - I think what Steve is trying to say is Dunn will average slightly more opportunities per game to hit HR's as Braz will to dish 'em up.

#127: I think it's typically TNSTAAP (There's No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect).

Tiffany, Izturis, Werth, Braz for Dunn. So beautiful. So not going to happen.

BTW, Steve...is it safe to assume you didn't get the nod as the new SC Justice?

130. Let's throw in Phillips, Edwards and Repko too. Why take out half the garbage when you can take out the whole can. Which brings up the famous proverb... is your garbage can half empty or half full?
vr, Xei

#129: TNSTAAPP, even. I bet it would feel nice to get something right the first time occasionally.

131. Oh man, this board has reached an all-time high, by reaching an all-time low. Amazing... the hillarious sarcasm losing will bring on.
vr, Xei

well, we don't get rid of ALL of 'em. just a couple. and we can toss in izturis and weaver. they don't all project to be #1s anyway. we should keep billingsley and miller and hochevar if he signs. that's a pretty good crop. and whatever is left can fill out the rest of the rotation, plus whatever we've got through free agents. our infield is gonna be stacked already, and we'll have drew and probably bradley too for a while, and guzman. we don't need to keep every single prospect we have. we're not starting a collection of hot minor leaguers; the point is to have the best major league team we have, both now AND in the future. i want to win the world series in 2006.

Anybody know what the stats of the "Replacement Player" are? avg, obp, whatever?

2007 or 2008 is probably more realistic. but 2006 would be cool, too.

136 - I beleive it's 75% of the league average, but I only remember that in passing.

On your mark, get set, lineups!

136 - I looked. It's tough to find. My understanding is that a lineup of replacement-level players and pitchers would win ~ 50 games per year. Perhaps Xei can reverse-engineer that figure into some kind of stat line using the Xeifrank LineupMaster Pro 2005 software program?

Does your program have a name, Xei?

OK, I used Google instead of BP and found this article by Keith Woolner of BP. Keith says, regarding VORP, that:

Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous unpublished studies)

http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/vorpdescnew.htm

Is anyone interested in playing LINEUP MATCH GAME today? Submit your lineups.

134 - Wasn't meant as sarcasm, XF...Steve's my pal, and we all want the best for him :)

I'm too liberal. Jerry is the confirmable Hispanic moderate among us.

You can also look up players that have a 0.00 VORP. Their stat line should be indicative of what replacement-level looks like at their position. There are many ways a player can stoop (or rise) to replacement-level, such as low OBP or low SLG, so the exact lines can vary somewhat while still yielding net zero marginal offensive contribution.

Alright thanks!

Steve was winner of LINEUP MATCH GAME for 7/15 (#437).

I believe the stats of the replacement level player depends on the stats of all the players in the pool of players, and it's usually broken down by position. The replacement level for 1B is different than that of SS or OF. I am more use to calculating replacment level values as it pertains to evaluation fantasy baseball players. If you have 16 teams, the replacement level would that of the value of the 16th most valuable player. Each player's replacement value is determined by his or her value minus the value of the replacement level player at his or her position. I have a program that calculates it for fantasy baseball and the download is available along with a description at http://tinyurl.com/77ne

vr, Xei

Batting cleanup, an outfielder not named Ja(y)son.

Oops, the lineup already came out. Sorry.

Werth should be in center, A. Perez in left, and Repko weaving baskets.

Ledee, eh?

142. How does the lineup match work. Most correctly slotted wins? Nonetheless, here is mine.

1. Robles - 3b
2. Izturis - ss
3. Kent - 2b
4. Ledee - RF
5. Choi - 1b
6. Werth - LF
7. Phillips - C
8. Repko - CF
9. Penny

Over/Under of 6 1/3 for Penny

153. Buntermaker goes with the exact same winning lineup as the last game.
vr, Xei

He used the same line-up twice? Wow.

Meanwhile, they can't get the Nationals line up posted because Robinson can't decide whether or not to bench Guzman.

155. I think Buntermaker is excercising his new skill, that of the Cut N Paste in Microsoft Lineup Maker Pro.
vr, Xei

RE tonight's lineup:

Phillips 5 and Choi 6, eh? Well, Phillips IS batting .003 higher...

I'm happy Choi's in the line-up at all.

If Jon never wrote anything again and everyday just wrote "Open Chat", would you still visit and use the site as a Dodger message board?

for the Conventional Wisdom:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=rs-shoppinglists071905&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Curiously, in the above column, Rino doesn't mention the Dodgers at all--not as buyers, not as sellers. Teams needing starting pitching: Yankees, Orioles, Rangers, Padres, White Sox. Implicitly, the Phillies and A's, though he doesn't dwell on it (the column is not for deep thinkers.) Teams needing bullpen help: D-backs, Red Sox, Cubs.

No one seems to need a shortstop. Power from a third baseman and/or corner outfielder will be sought by several teams, including the Cardinals, Twins and Nats.

Jeff Weaver, Derek Lowe, Odalis Perez, Yhency Brazoban, Olmedo Saenz, Gio Carrara, Duaner Sanchez, Ricky Ledee, Jayson Werth. If we don't find a way to fix things for 2006 by trading at least four of the above nine players, then someone's asleep at the switch.

153. The lineups have to be submitted before the actual lineup comes out (preferably 2 hours before game time).

Refer to Post #437 on 7/15 for the rules on the LINEUP MATCH GAME.

If Tracy keeps coming out consistent lineups then it will mess up the game but until then we can keep playing it.

160. Why? Do you know something that we don't?
vr, Xei

OMG OMG OMG OMG

For the Nationals, Guzman benched, Carroll at short leading off. AND Castilla benched (hurt? embarrassed?) and Baerga starts at third. Wow. Quick, Olmedo, pass the Cheerios.

(I know, I know, it's not Nationals Thoughts, but Steve and Bob both seem to like to play.)

More sim numbers... runs per game given that player batted 1 thru 9th. vr, Xei

1. A.Pujols 12.268
2. Drew 8.855
3. Dunn 8.458
4. M.Ramirez 7.471
5. V.Guerrero 7.372
6. Kent 7.233

Hey Xeifrank, why don't you crank out the numbers for today's Dodger lineup?

153. You're the only one that submitted lineup today so you are the winner.

Your lineup was really close. You guessed all the players and guessed 6 out of 9 correct batting order.

I guess you're starting to read Tracy's mind.

XF, post the code to your sim. I'm curious as to the main algorithm.

Xeifrank, are you using your program to generate the lineups.

166. Ok, here they are. But keep in mind the program does not take into effect the opposing pitcher. Good idea. vr, Xei

Tonight's lineup ran thru sim:
Dodgers: 4.219

Too bad we can't use Perez instead of Werth today.

As bad our offense is, it shame that we can't use Perez and his .321 average.

168. The program is rather long but pretty straightforward to how it works. Enter lineups and stats into text ascii file, program then simulates 9 innings of at bats for that linuep and does this 30,000 times and comes up with an average runs scored per game.
1. Computer generates random number between 1 and 1,000, if number is less than or equal to the players OBP (whole number of) then he gets on base.
2. If the number was between the batting average and the OBP it is a walk, otherwise it is a hit. Then if a hit, determine what kind of hit based on the players ratio of 1b/h, 2b/h, 3b/h, hr/h (use another random number to determine what kind of hit). Then move runners accordingly, with players with higher speed ratings having a higher percent chance of taking an extra base.
3. If it was an out. All outs are currently programmed as a strike out / or no runner advancing and no double plays.
4. When 3 outs are made begin a new inning and repeat step #1.
that's the basics.
vr, Xei

Xei, what's the StdDev of tonight's lineup for runs scored?

#173,
What language did you use for the program?

I believe Vinny Castilla has some injury which was supposed to be partly responsible for his two errors last night.

172. I agree. If Perez can play LF then start him over Repko and move Werth to CF. If Perez can play 2B, then move Robles to SS and put Izturis on the trade block.
vr, Xei

173. C Language. It's faster than Visual Basic, but VB allows for nicer GUIs.
vr, Xei

should i watch the suns game or the dodgers game?

Suns.

174. I don't compute that. I am writing a sim to nominate supreme court justices though. I forwarded my nominees to Bush an hour ago. I have Gonzalez, Pujols and some guy named Steve, but not necessarily in that order.
vr, Xei

Tonight's Over/Under Challenge Entries.

7/19 Brad Penny vs Phillies

Colorado Blue: 7 1/3
CT Bum: 7

Howard: 7 2/3
Xeifrank: 6 1/3

Joekings: 7 1/3
Louis In SF: 7

Standings...
Howard 3-1-0
CT Bum 1-1-2
Xeifrank 1-1-2
Colorado Blue 1-3-0
Louis in SF 0-0-0
Joekings 0-0-0

re #165

I hope everyone remembers how much Drew- and Kent-bashing was going on six months ago here and elsewhere.

I keep going back and forth on Dunn, but Xei's numbers pretty much make the case for him. But how do we get him without giving up your 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers? Don't see Weaver, Izzy or anyone else on our current roster as desirable to a team like the Reds except as a throw-in.

you trade weaver and izzy to another team for prospects and take those prospects and flip them for dunnerz.

173 - Your step 2 has all sorts of flaws that basically invalidate your final number-- but you already knew that. Here are a couple of suggestions.

First, you can't select a random number to determine the kind of hit; what you really need to do is to simulate plays on a pitch-by-pitch basis rather than a play-by-play basis. An 0-2 count is less likely to produce a home run than a 3-1 count, for example.

Second, if you aren't simulating the location of your hits, then your extra base algorithm is fairly useless. Nobody will go first-to-third on a hit that drops in front of the left fielder, but a faster player will try to go first-to-third on a hit just out of the right fielder's reach.

If you run the sim on a pitch-by-pitch basis, including likelihood of pitch locations and likelihood of where the ball is hit (and here's where defensive range of your opposing team comes into play) then I think you'll find the LA Grabowskis won't be getting 2 runs per game.

I've been a longtime lurker on this site, and I'm finally going to have my first post. Firstly, I want to thank Jon for this site, I find it as an excelent relief outlet from the uninformed media coverage of this team, and really appreciate all the info. It might be my favorite website on the internet.

I'm a huge Depo supporter, and have always been a fan of Choi, but I am begining to think he may not be the answer at 1st. However, I still hope he can turn it around.
I've lost all faith in Werth and never really understood the love affair with this guy. I would take Repko over him anyday and am really starting to like this kid with his recent offensive and defensive fireworks.
I really think this team needs a natural leadoff hitter. I love Izturis and would start him on my team anyday of the week, I just don't love him hitting 1st.
I think the Kent signing was brilliant.
I like the pitching. I think Lowe can be great at times, but also has trouble going deep into games. Weaver has been great lately, but I don't think it makes sense to keep him around long-term with our prospects due to arrive in a year or two. I was really hoping Odalis could pull it together this year and in the future, but that may have been a poor, but necessary signing, given the market circumstances. Penny has been money and worth trading away LoDuca. Houlton has been one lucky SOB thus far, in my opinion, but I think a combo of him and Thompson as a 5th starter in the future is not bad at all.
The bullpen has its issues, but it's hard to judge without Gagne, one of my all-time favorite Dodgers. I liked Wunsch and hope we sign him in the offseason, I really don't care for the inconsistency of everyone else, even though they are young and show flashes of brilliance at times.
I love Drew and Milton in the outfield. Would be great if we could fill the hole in LF somehow.
And Phillips will do for this year, but I hope we give someone else a chance next year. It is really frustrating the way other teams are able to run all over us. I'm hoping for Navarro next year.

I think we could have easily won the west this year, but due to one of the worst injury-plagued seasons I have ever heard of, it is now going to be pretty difficult. It's been frustrating to be losing game after game with jason phillips as a cleanup hitter. We might just be a deal or two too late this year. But the future is very very bright and I hope we don't sell off part of the future in a stupid deal for this year. Sorry, had to get a few things off my chest, it's been a frustrating season thus far. Go Dodgers!

If Pujols goes on the court, he can't hit anymore, and that would make me sad.

I'm going to do the unthinkable tonight. I'm going to watch a Dodger game and hope to be entertained, though The Juice mocks me for my efforts.

did that just happen?

185. You would need a super computer and hundreds of and hundreds of lines of input data to do what you are suggesting. I already made public the flaws that my sim have and that it is not yet complete. But I think those are rather minor things. There is really no way to run an accurate sim on a pitch by pitch basis, there are just way too many data inputs. My sim doesn't take into consideration who the pitcher is, and it was never meant to do that as it adds a Big O(N2) of complexity to the program. You would have results back to you in weeks instead of seconds. I will leave that excercise to you!!
Xei

Slugger Robles!

And I am entertained!

Yay Oscar!

(Never would've thought I'd be typing that...)

Wow, that's a ridiculous stat Steiner just threw out:

when dodgers score 4 runs or more, dodgers are 37-10

The sad part of the 4-runs per game stat is that we have played 92 games, so we only score 4 runs or more in about half our games.

193,194. Did he say what our record is in games that we outscore our opponents in? That would be a very telling one.
vr, Xei

Was that a cyst on T-Bones butt?

195 - I'm tapping my sarcasm detector to see if it's broken, or whether I'm just glazed over from a long boring workday...

SD is 38-10 when scoring 4 or more. I knew we were as good as those guys.

#178 - C? You know, a real programmer would do it in Perl. And it would be 5 lines long.

I'm kidding. Actually, I did the same thing about 5 years (in Perl, oddly enough) and was never satisfied with how I should advance the baserunners. If you don't mind giving away the secrets, I'm curious as to what range of probability taking an extra base fits within. And is it solely dependant on the baserunner's speed, disregarding the batter or other runners? Examples:

- Fast guy on first, slow guy on second (let's call him Saenz). On a single, I'm guessing fast guy is less likely to go two bases than he would if he was the only man on base.

or

- Runner on first, any difference between the singles that a Juan Pierre would hit compared to an Adam Dunn? I would think that power hitters put the ball in the OF more often on a single than "singles hitters" would.

Just a couple thoughts, feel free to use them if you want. But I'm at least curious to see how you're currently handling it.

Werth is a terrible terrible man.
Robles starting at 2B next year?

I don't think that 4 or more stat is very telling at all -- I would need to know what all teams do when they score 4 or more, and I would guess that they win most of them.

I want to drown myself in a bathtub for saying this, but it might be time to give Werth a nice long, er, rest, play Perez in left, and leave my other arch-nemesis in center. I'll suffer, but there's no reason the rest of you should have to.

Nice of you to be willing to take one for the team, Steve.

And just like that, our lead is gone.

According to Gameday, Robles hit his homerun about 50 feet past the outfield wall. Of course, that's still just a 370-foot shot at CB Park.

#189 - I'd agree, although probably for a simpler reason. The amount of accuracy gained by what was suggested simply isn't worth it. If you get can within a few percent doing it the simple way, there's no need to reinvent the wheel to try to get only slightly better results.

I guess you COULD do it pitch by pitch if you had the stats of each player on a given count, but by doing that, you would probably decrease the accuracy due to sample size problems. I suppose you could find some sort of league-wide adjustment and do that for each player, but theoretically, those results would average out to be identical to the non pitch-by-pitch sims.

Long story short, there's simply no point in doing it by each pitch, rather than AB.

203- Which makes Werth's at-bat even more frustrating.

206 - no kidding.

189 - Actually, you wouldn't need a supercomputer at all. Most semi-decent baseball simulations already do this-- even EA's baseball game for the PS2 does pitch count tendencies, pitch locations, playing-for-the-win strategies, defensive zones, hit locations, etc.

The Dodgers get 2 hits, walk, HBP, and HR and have 1 run to show for it.

The Phillies get a hit, no walks, no HR, and have 1 run to show for it.

Rageon,
I think incorporating line drive percentage and ground ball/flyball ratio would help with advancing runners.

#209,
Well, at least we get another at-bat for Kent and raised Myers' pitch count...

If they keep LOB per at bat stat, Werth must be leading the Dodgers or Majors by now.

#208 - I'll go on record as officially saying that I think adding all that stuff would decrease accurancy. Like I said, there's NO WAY to accuratly get that info on anything more than a league or stadium basis, so you would be throwing garbage into the algorithm, and getting processed garbage for output.

Robles has become a hitting machine!!!

199. Thanks for the thoughtful post. In your first example with Saenz on 2nd, first off it would be determined if he scored or not. Obviously if he was held at 3b then the fast runner on first would stay at 2nd. If Saenz did score from 2nd, then runner on first would make 3b on his own merit/speed, whatever that may be. As far the type of single Pierre vs Dunn, it is not programmed in to the sim. That is just way too complex to simulate and would involve more data that I don't have, and more lines of code, and no sure way of the correct way of programming it. I don't know who keeps data of how often a single by a player moves a runner from first to third. You could even make the arguement that Dunn hits the ball harder and his singles would travel to the OFer quicker than Pierre's singles... so it's impossible to program, but nice thought. There are tons of other things you could sim, but would be too complex, hard to define or just not worthwhile. The main thing you could argue that was missing would be types of outs, ie - GB vs FB outs, anything else, especially stuff that has to do with bunting and a certain base coach being more aggressive sending runners home are either not worth the complexity the comes with it or just shouldn't be considered. I'm still all ears to any sane suggestions. :) This more fun than a science project... and results should be taken with a grain of salt. But the numbers are fun to throw out there and my algorithm is semi-public.
vr, Xei

He's a Mexican not a Mexican't!

208. Good luck with your sim. Send me all the data and code if you'd like. :)
vr, Xei

That was a very scrappy groundout to shortstop.

wow, what a start by Senor Robles.
vr, Xei

At this point, Repko is better than Werth. At least Repko's defense can save a run or two even when he doesn't hit.

Pat Burrell is scrappy in a good, helps his team win, sort of way, rather than a bad, impresses stupid sports journalists, sort of way.

#221,
Then we'll need a new terw to differentiate between "good scrap" and "bad scrap."

#210 - yes, I think GB/FB ratio and linedrive% (is that even available?) would be useful in raising/lowering the probability of taking the extra base. Although, one concern I would have is that my hunch is that pitchers have more control over that result than hitters do (any thoughts??), so you would have to somehow adjust the ratios to reflect a certain day-by-day increase or decrease. Actually, I would probably put pitcher effects in my category of Too Much Work Too Be Worth It.

While I'd love to stay here and discuss algorithms all day long, I've got a bar exam to get back to studying for. If anyone wants to get into this further and perhaps share some info/code/ideas/whatever, you can send me an email at: rageon@gmail.com

Penny should be getting more strikeouts with his stuff (57K in 100 innings). Maybe he's not completely recovered or he's conserving his pitches so that he can go longer into games. But with our defense, he needs to start getting more K's instead of relying so much on defense.

#223,
Actually, pitchers have very little control over that kind of stuff. LD% and GB/FB ratio are easily available at www.thehardballtimes.com .

Penny needs to stop leaving pitches right up over the plate, he's made way too many mistakes already.

#225 should have a "studies have shown" somewhere in the first sentence.

223, 225. At some point I will add that stuff. Thanks for the ideas and input.
vr, Xei

Game, please oh please don't get out of hand in the 2nd inning...

if nothing else, nice to see Penny working in the mid to high 90's today (consistently 97mph). Curveball over the middle of the plate is getting hammered today, though.

Looks like I'm going to win the over/under challenge tonight, unless Penny turns it around pretttttty quickly.
vr, Xei

Maybe he's throwing the ball too hard and just needs to settle down.

we got out of that cheaply enough.

This is too painful - I'm certainly not staying at work late today to watch this. I'll go to my favorite pizza restaurant and read the latest Harry Potter, while periodically checking my cell for the Dodgers score and for whom Bush has picked for the Supreme Court, since the latest gossip is that the perfectly acceptable Edith Clement is a red herring. In other words, a good book and meal probably ruined by my cell. Sigh.

Steve is right, though - Oscar Robles's emergence is indeed one of the bright spots of this season.

Did Steiner say what our record is in games we are trailing by one run after two innings?

Win expectancy calculator says we have a 34.4% chance of winning, of course they don't break it down on a pitch by pitch level.
vr, Xei

That's a perfect example of what Penny is able to do that the rest of our starters apparently aren't -- get out of trouble. If Lowe or Perez were pitching, odds are we'd be down 3-1 or worse at this point.

Did we all read the moving article in the LA Times about Senor Robles today? Very touching in a touching kind of way.
vr, Xei

According to Tracy, today's starting lineup:

Izturis (professional fielder),
Robles (professional situational hitter),
Kent (professional deluxe hitter),
Ledee (professional pinch hitter),
Phillips (professional starter),
Choi (professional backup),
Werth (professional starter),
Repko (professional scrappy hitter)

Aren't we lucky that they are all professional something.

Any comments to add?

Penny's gotta be a professional something, too.

i just learned that the majority of the suns players envy justin ruggianno because he has a chizzeled frame.

234 - per cnn front page: "President Bush will nominate U.S. Circuit Judge John Roberts Jr. to fill the Supreme Court vacancy, CNN has learned."

Drudge says the SC nominee is John Roberts.

241. Under what DT name does John Roberts post under? :) Thanks for the news!
vr, Xei

John Roberts = Jim Hitchcock.

I can't believe we drafted Utley and he went to UCLA. Blah.

(says while waving his arms in Lemmings voice) Oh No!

So, "Jim," What do you think about eminent domain?

242. Looks like we will be in for a nasty Phillipsbuster with Judge Roberts.
http://tinyurl.com/8epjq
vr, Xei

222- LDL (Good) scrap, HDL (Bad) scrap.

Ciao! Good luck with the Dodgers game. Got baby duty and a softball game this evening. I'll try to make some productive yet scrappy outs.
vr, Xei

247 - Hah! You ask that as LAX is about to kick me out of my house for airport expansion?

Now that's what I call scrappy (seriously, that was the productivest productive out i've ever seen).

repko with an olney!

249. if you're thinking cholesterol, LDL is the bad kind. HDL is the good kind.

can penny make it a double olney inning?

damn, who needs olneys when you could hit a double instead.

Yahoo says Werth doubled. That can't be right. He only strikes out. OK which one of you guys finally told him the object is to hit, not miss, the ball?

First an Olney, then a first-rate Grabowski Principle.

254- Hell. You're right.

myers just pitched around robles to get to izzy. ha.

after the first two pitches to robles on gameday, it looked like he was getting an unintentional intentional walk.

Maybe these guys could use Weaver? =)

Though the only guy there who would make sense for L.A. is Burrell. Weav, Werth, and Seanz/Braz?

A little disappointing to bat through the order and only get two runs. We are going to need more to hold on an d win.

Why isn't Izturis playing for the Twins yet? I thought we settled this weeks ago.

262 - Abreu is better than Burrell, although more expensive, too. Burrell's not cheap, either. Either of those guys would be welcome in LF in 2006 and 2007.

I'd love to get Utley for 2007. He's my favorite Philly. I doubt he'd come available, though. I'd trade Aybar/Denker/Young plus Navarro/Martin for Utley. Assuming one from each group is enough to get him.

264. jason bartlett?

I am completely sold on Robles. Completely and absolutely. Not only does he hit, but even when he doesn't hit, he takes 20 pitches a game. Therefore, I will forgive his upcoming 5 for 100 slump.

I, for one, will say hello and welcome aboard to USCDodger Knuckleballer.

Where are everybody's manners?

Last 37 pa's for Choi the Starter:
.333/.459/.500

#267 - Me too. I don't think he continues to hit this way, but I think he had projected to be a better hitter than Izturis. And he's someone I would feel comfortable with in the leadoff spot. His D has been pretty good so far too.

Jason who? How many Gold Gloves has he won? How many All-Star Games has that guy been to? Is he a PROVEN WINNER, with intangibles as far as the eye can see?

I didn't think so. The Twins would be making a huge mistake if they think that Jason Bartlett is the answer at shortstop. Truly, they need to give up several major league level prospects for such a special talent as Cesar Izturis, and THEN thank us for calling them first instead of Omar Minaya.

Penny has been money and worth trading away LoDuca.

He's OK by me, Bob!

hahahah

"intangibles as far as the eye can see"

i think we need to start referring to intangibles as invisibles.

268 - You are absolutely right, Bob. Completely missed the post.

He's cheap too (in a Jimmy-Rollins-signed-for-how-much?-really??-kinda world).

nice banana utley, lets take advantage of that.

Izturis is now hitting .268.

Ledee should have taken Utley out.

Buying shortstops for their intangibles is like buying a used '79 Mustang II for its intangibles.

Just get a decent car/shortstop instead. Preferebly, one with tangibles.

yeah, greetings to USCDodger!

what happened on that play? it said double play, but phillips is at first on gameday.

OK, explain how Gameday can be telling me this:

"Jason Phillips grounds into double play, shortstop Jimmy Rollins to second baseman Chase Utley. Ricky Ledee out at 2nd. Jason Phillips to 1st. "

267 Steve are you getting sentimental on us? Is it a coincidence your acceptance of Oscar comes on the same day the LA Times runs a human interest story about how Oscar persevered to the major's as a fulfillment of a promise to his dying mother. I think not. Who knew you were really a soft touch.-)

Steve Lyons has now wasted roughly half an hour trying to defend Jimmy Rollins's contract. I hate him.

now gameday is saying the second pitch was put into play, followed by 4 more pitches on the screen.

282 -- That's the third time that story has run -- the Times, as usual, was last on it.

Gameday is wacky. It had Choi up, then went back to Phillips then briefly said Choi got a single, now I see the inning is over. What the hell happened?

Yeah, Yahoo originally had Phillips safe at first. Now its a double play?

Description please?

Choi the Starter now:
.355/.474/.516

Clearly he's in a position to succeed.

Choi should be hitting ahead of Phillips, what more do you need to know?

Did Phillips give the ump the ol' "Brad Penny shimmy"?

I am really losing patience for Phillips. At best he is a decent hitter with a occasional power. That is off-set by the following (1) his defensive skills are only marginal; (2) anyone can run on him; and (3) he is slower than s#*t.

Phillips grounded into a double play. Choi singled. Werth grounded out.

But if you put "Molina" on the back of Phillips' uniform everyone would think he was gutty!

a pissed off penny> a nonchalant penny.

Re: 291

How many catchers are there, though, who can really hit? The defense is worrisome, but I think his bat is fine, especially for a guy making the minimum and who we only gave up Kaz for. Phillips is perfectly adequate as a soft-hitting catcher at the bottom of the order who'll hold the fort befor Navarro and Martin are ready.

WWSH

279 - LOL. Never thought of the venerable Variable Venturi carburetor as an `intangible'.

repko with a rookie mistake.

A very (s)crappy overthrow of the cutoff man.

I think Phillips is a low priority this year. I hate his arm, but oh well. I have a crush on Martin and hope he goes berserk next spring training so they have to keep him on the big club. I thought he looked great this past ST.

295 Wayne, I agree his bat is acceptable for the $$$. Its everything else that is lacking. Seriously, he is the slowest man in baseball. No matter where a ball is hit in the infield it is a DP if there is a runner on. There is no ball he can beat out. Moreover, his inablity to throw out a runner is a real problem. Everyone in baseball knows you can run on the Dodgers. Most singles quickly become doubles, via the steal. Yes, I know the pitchers are not holding the runners but Phillips compounds that problem.

Jason Phillips is a LOT faster than Bengie Molina.

#300 - Every Dodger catcher I can remember has been pathetic at throwing runners out. Is it an organizational thing, where they don't teach the slide step or something?

Steve Yeager had a decent throwing arm.

#303 - Pre-dates me. Scioscia, Piazza, LoDuca, Phillips - even Charles Johnson was poor when he was here. It's an epidemic.

Roy Campanella was supposed to be pretty good. Not that anybody stole bases in the 1950s.

Al Lopez was good in the 1930s. Not that anyone stole bases then either.

Off topic but did anyone catch the ESPN plays of the week with Robles getting thrown out by Tavares? The Houston announcer sees Robles taking the extra base and yells "HE'S GOT SPEED!... the throooww... got him!!"

Bob, Benjie has a ton more power and is a better "situational hitter." Moreover, his name sake is a cute movie dog, while Phillips name sake is a movie horror show.

Re: 300

I see your point, and I honestly thought Phillips would hit better than he has, but he really is the least of our problems this season. And at least he isn't throwing stuff into CF--I remember when LoDuca had a constant problem with that.

I think Phillips' numbers will recover a bit before season's end, though. We still got plenty of time for him to get another hot streak at the plate.

WWSH

Phillips' main value is that he's decent as a hitter. And he hasn't gotten hurt!

Think of a whole season of Mike Rose.

orenduff is pitching for the suns. he looks ALOT different than i remebered from his scotuing video. in the scouting video, he had really thick thighs and had a prior like motion.

now, it looks like hes lost weight, he looks really skinny, a lot of knees and elbows coming at you. a little Orel like. hes loves his slider. hitting 94.

That hot dog eating contest looked like a "revenge of the nerds" gathering.

We should've traded Izzy weeks ago, before his average plummetted even more.

Arghhhh....

WWSH

Too bad we don't have designated fielder. Izzy would be perfect.

308. Maybe I would be more tolerant if he was fatter. You don't expect much out of a fat catcher like Benjie or Joe Ferguson. If he was fat I would expect him to be slow. I'm just not used to a catcher with stumpy-short legs that can't move very fast. He actually looks like his body is moving at normal speed but he is not covering any ground. Like a cartoon character.

314.) lol. Well put.

Re: 314

The tongue lolling out probably helps with the cartoon effect. =) And the goggles, too.

WWSH

Oh yeah. The goggles definitly.

I'm mystified by Scott Long. The strike him out throw him out double play is the most exciting play in baseball, and we have it down to a science.

Rumor has it, Bush was going to appoint the first Korean to the Supreme Court, but opted not to at the last minute because of "arm angles."

I've heard that Bush opposes the use of LOOGys

I think Jimmy Rollins is the sort of bad hitter that will hurt the Dodgers. In the tradition of Omar Vizquel and Michael Tucker.

Lofton is amazing at age 38. Depo should have tried harder to sign him in the offseason. I don't think it would have cost that much. Lofton would have been a perfect leadoff batter for us and play LF.

Ahh, the new LOOGY!

Kenny Lofton is always quick to point out that there is a "ME" in team.

broxton just completely owned the other team. 98mph heater with a filthy slider. pitched a scoreless 8th with 2Ks.

The way things have gone this season, I half expected Scott Erickson to get the appointment.

I think we all need to get off of our Scott Erickson fixation. He's becoming more myth than monster!

#314

when I am having a bad day I like to go over to the Dodger Blues website and click on Jason Phillips and watch him "run'. never fails to make me smile. looks like he is running with a recliner on his back.

Bob, doesn't Drew and Kent also have some "ME" in them. I don't know if Depo cares about that kind of thing as long as the stats look good.

Lofton has an extreme case of self-centeredness. I think it's one of the reasons he's been such an itinerant the second half of his career. If anyone can wear out a welcome fast, it's Lofton.

He's good, but he's a hard guy to deal with supposedly.
Seven teams in five years is a lot of travelling.

One of the ironies of this year may in fact be that of everyone in the lineup (other than Kent), Hee Seop Choi is the only actual "professional hitter" among them.

guzman with a stupid throwing banana. he should have ate it.

332 - how many errors does he have now? around 24 already?

Steve Schmoll, Setup Man Version 3.2

somewhere around there.

holy crap. broxton just blew away a hitter for a K. 96MPH on the jax gun. the gun is 3-4mph slow. wow...

just hit 98 on the gun....

We want Sanchez!

The Red Sox did so well picking up their first banjo hitting mascot middle infielder, that they just traded for Tony Graffinino.

this will be a tough test for young schmoll.

What a pitch!

how does a side arm/submarine pitcher throw 90+?

Nasty sllider time.

Schmoll! Schmoll! He's our man! If he can't do it, it's not like anybody else can!

Hang a big sign around Schmoll's neck that says "Me Rookie"

I was really expecting the Dodgers to give up a home run on a 2-strike, 2-out pitch there.

The HBP is different.

Let me guess. No one warming up.

Are we having fun yet?

Hey Schmoll, stop hitting the batters. They don't like it. And we don't like it either.

schmoll cant control his pitches, they are too wicked! even if we lose, i dont care, its been a fun game.

Well here we are at the worst moment of any game this year for the Dodgers: 2 out, 2 on 2 strkes. . .and something bad happens. Imagine that.

yess! never doubted him for a second.

What me worry. Never a doubt.

The Schmoll is grassy.

All part of the master plan. Two HBP is a Schmoll price to pay.

schmoll was establishing an inside presence. it was all part of the schmoll plan.

Sanchez in the ninth should wrap things up though.

Is there some retaliation coming up? Probably not in a tie game, but if the game were decided it could get ugly after that.

I would love the Phillies to retaliate and put runners on first. How else are the Dodgers going to get on base against Wagner?

What's wrong with a pitcher hitting batters? When I was a pitcher in Little League, I used to bean batters all the time, just because I could.

Getting hit by Wagner probably results in ANOTHER DL stint for somebody.

Perhaps we should send Erickson in as a PH?

so how are we going to lose the game?

how about this one. batter hits a line drive up the middle, duaner throws his glove at the ball, batter automatically awarded third base.

then duaner gives up a homerun to the pitcher.

oh wait, that already happened.

Duaner Sanchez is in. For a moment, I was worried the game might be headed for extra innings.

nate, did you hear the announcer for the Suns say LaRoche hasn't had an RBI in over a dozen games? he's slumping hard lately.

i know. but he has been hitting the ball hard. he will snap out of it i think.

wow, nothing bad happened when duaner was in. thats a first.

All ye of little faith...

ahhh!!!!!!! we are so close...

oh man. IBB for phillips.

tracy is pulling out his ace- PH perez for choi...

Ok, if we don't do it here with Perez, it ain't happening. There's no one left

Yes! Walk phillips! Bring up our lord and savior!

Tracy won't put squeeze bunt with Perez will he?

Tracy won't put squeeze bunt with Perez will he?

have we forgotten how bad perez is at bunting?

I still kinda want Choi to win the game, but I'm okay with putting AP in.

WWSH

Wagner fears Perez.

373. Just kidding. :)

Or not.

moment of truth...

we should have bunted. lol.

why do umps pick on the rookie?

Up to Werth. I have NO faith...

That was a veteran v. rookie call.

Groan

Good AB by Perez, though.

Werth will K. I know it.

WWSH

OMG exact same pitch to werth is a ball.

BOOO terrible call ump.

Same pitch for a ball to Werth...

redemption!!!

Thank you Wagner.

Werth proves his doubters wrong. Nice.

WWSH

Grabowski lives on, in Principle!

Once again, oh ye of little faith :)

I would have had a sniper fire at Werth if he had swung 3-0.

Well, if Wagner throws strikes, I still have no faith in Werth :)

who's pitching for us in 10th. Braz?

We could actually have one of those whatchamacallit things on our hands. I forget what its called. . .oh yea, a save situation.

Wow nice meltdown by Wagner. 4 pitch walk with the bases loaded... ouch.

we'll need 4 run lead for Braz.

Well, let's see if Ghame Over can hold it.

WWSH

come on yhency. shut the door!

Ghame Over going for the Dodgers first save in 15 days!

Since it's save situation, maybe Ghame will pitch well tonight.

I guess it doesn't matter whether it's save situation or not for Ghame these days.

Groan

O.M.G.

yhency needs a new pitch

That didn't take long.

Drew might have made the play Werth wasn't able to, but it's not like it would've mattered.

WWSH

Man. That really hurt.

Yhency is the man! I am not surprised. He is the worst reliever on the team right now. Colby needs to talk to him or I would be in favor of Erickson over him.

I guess that shoots down that theory that Braz only pitches well in save situations.

It may be time for Braz to go down to the minors and work on his pitching.

I think we're beyond pain now. It's all just one long numb feeling.

where's Broxton when you need him...

I think all of you who had those Ghame Over shirts need to threw them into a big bonfire outside of that Unocal station at the Stadium.

WWSH

Well that wasn't fun.

Time to look for a new closer.

So much for getting the lead for once.

Don't you mean the CNOOC Station?

What was that, 3 pitches?

Now we can't even trade Braz!!!

Yep, 3 pitches for Brazoban. But two of them were strikes!

Well, to be fair, the Ghame was over pretty quickly after he came in.

I won't be wearing my Ghame Over shirt in public anymore...

But the Padres lost! Maybe we can still make a run at them.

At least, it was over fast.

Re: 415

It isn't a 76 station anymore? Geez, makes me miss the Stadium even more.

WWSH

418. Well, at least he's always around the plate :)

I thought CNOOC was a type of salmon...

Unfortunately, the batters are always around the fences.

Gotta give the team credit though: just when you thought they couldn't find a new way to lose. . .viola, they do.

423,
Not following the business news lately are we?

It still is a 76 station. But Unocal's gas stations are all going to become Tosco stations over the next decade. Unocal was bought out by Chevron, but a Chinese company, CNOOC, is making a bid.

I'm sure the point has been made about 17 times that this was a save situation.

He is having a Rick Ankiel like meltdown (instead of walks it is Homers). 9ER in his last 4.1 IP. That is a 18.71 ERA! Nice July Yhency. If he came in and pitched a scoreless inning in every game for the rest of the month he would have a 4.96 ERA for July.

Erickson will be our closer at this rate.

How about Alvarez as closer? Move Brazoban back to setup man?

WWSH

How did Burrell get his triple? Was it a catchable ball?

I would think Schmoll would be the next likely candidate to get the closer job. Or it could be ... Closer by Committee!!!!

In all seriousness, WHEN is Broxton coming up? Sept 1? Or do they wait until next year to let him develop more?

Schmoll is the closer! Schmoll is the closer! Our closer spent three months at AAA! BOOOOOO!

It looked catchable to me, though not an easy catch. At least he went up for it instead of falling down like Ross.

So far the NL West is 0-3. That really exciting Arizona Diamonback team (rolls eyes) is down 5-0 after 2 1/2. Atlanta is up 1-0 on SF.

In all seriousness, WHEN is Broxton coming up? Sept 1? Or do they wait until next year to let him develop more?

bananas in ears, broxton is still a starting pitcher in my mind.

In a more important score, the Braves lead the Giants 1-0 in the 2nd.

428 - I understand Merv is going to be uninterred to speak before Congress...

Re: 423

Oh, I had heard of the bid, but I only knew that it was a Chinese company--didn't know what the English name of the company went by. I also hadn't heard that Unocal had been bought by Chevron--there never have been any Unocal places in the parts of the east coast I've lived in since college. It'll be a bit of change to see all the 76 signs back home slowly disappear when I visit LA.

WWSH

Re: 436

I agree--it wouldn't have been an easy play, but it was doable. He had enough room and just couldn't time the jump right. I know he's not totally comfortable with RF, so that may be part of it. And I think Drew would've made that play. Werth is no Grabowski, but he isn't the same caliber as Milton or Drew.

WWSH

I like my Ghame Over shirt.
First of all, it was my slogan! And nobody wants to steal it now do they?

Second of all, it appreciates in its absurdity. It's sort of like when Homer Simpson offers the first person to call Mr. Plow a souvenir "Stockdale for Veep" t-shirt.

442 - Werth is good, though he is better going towards the ball I think. It was a tough play but he made it worse the way he played it. That said, if he would have held him at second it wouldn't have made a difference.

Yhency Branca
Yhency Forster
Yhency Neidenfuhr......

A-R-R-R-G-H!!!!!

432 - would have been a great catch if someone got it. it hit high off the wall, inches from a homer.

If Yhency could be compared with Branca, Forster or Niedenfuer that would mean the Dodgers had actually had a good season.

Right now, Yhency is heading for a comparison with Chuck Churn. Or Stan Wall.

To be precise, it's not Chevron that is buying Unocal. It's ChevronTexaco. Those two companies merged a few years ago too.

Whether or not, the 76 "meatball" (as I have learned it is called in the trade) will survive any further changes is still undecided.

Tosco owns the stations, but ChevronTexaco and CNOOC want all the other stuff, i.e., oil and natural gas.

Presumably, the Dodger Stadium station would be one of the last to change over since it has to be a rather prime location with good advertising.

If you stand out there long enough, you can catch a home run hit off of Yhency Brazoban.

Eric Gagne's arbitration value just went up a little.

449 - He has a contract so unfortunately for him that doesnt matter much.

450- Thanks for pointing that out, Captain Obvious.

i want a rich harden on the dodgers.

Let Choi FREAKIN play a whole game!

We never lost games like this in the Gagne era. This is why Gagne is worth what he gets paid, when healthy of course.

These games are heartbreakers.

451 - Not to be rude, but what is the point of 449 then? What is his arbitration value when he has a contract that runs past his arbitration years? If I am Cap Obvious then you are Lt Obscure.

i agree with 455, its hard to tell sarcasm on the internet. so dont be rude.

Just the usual, Yancy gets hit up (he does need a new pitch... does he have a changeup?) and Choi is taken out when he is hitting well.

from jaxsuns.com

Broxton's penultimate pitch in the ninth registered at 98 on the Baseball Grounds' radar gun and 101 on the Dodgers' and scouts' guns, the fastest pitch in ballpark history

Yeah Choi has good games and bad games but it seems nothing will make Tracy bend on the L/R thing.

Bob I'll stick with my Branca ,Forster,Neidenfuhr analogy and up the ante Stan Williams because even the lowliest win has the impact of a playoff game in this season of diminished expectations.
Stan Wall I vaguely remember,but who is Chuck
Churn?He obviously wasn't the cream of the crop.

I used Chuck Churn's name because it sounds nice.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/churnch01.shtml

Wow that is old school. If it didn't happen in the 00s I may not remember it.

nate,

The handwriting for Guzman is on the wall isn't it. If I hold out for him to be a shortstop I'm going to be disappointed, right?

Just let me down easy.

D'Backs trying to get back in the game. Now 6-3.

The infamous or unfamous Chuckie Churn actually did stink up the 1959 World series in his one appearance-2 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning.Seeing as we won the Series despite him he'll have to rest on the lower tier of failed Dodger relievers.I'll also give him bonus points for being a teammate of Wally Moon.

The handwriting for Guzman is on the wall isn't it. If I hold out for him to be a shortstop I'm going to be disappointed, right?

he is just too damn inconsistent there. it seems that he isnt focused all the time. its like his mind drifts. he makes a dazzling play, then makes a bonehead banana. he still has a chance to be an average shortstop, but its going to take a whole lot of hardwork, concentration and 10 hours everyday in the winter taking groundball after groundball after groundball.

i think Hu will be our stopstop of the future.

If we are looking for stink-up the joint WS closers, look no further than Bhyung-Hyun Khim Brazabon.

466 - He apparently has a cannon of an arm though, so he could be a dynamite RF or 3B though I guess we are stocked at 3B. Without the errors how is his D(I know this sounds like saying, except for the patients death how did surgery go?)? I remember reading that he projected to be average or better except that he was seen as too tall to stick at SS. What about a move to 1B? I guess that is going from the most premium position to the least, but we aren't loaded at 1B and he is tall.

it wasnt his hieght being the biggest concern, it was his weight. right now he is around 225lbs, scouts project him to fil out to 6'6 250lbs or so.

at that size and weight, no way in hell he will be playing SS in the bigs.

I remember when we used to complain that Jim Tracy left the starters in too long.

I miss those days.

Pedro Feliz hit a 3-run homer off of Horacio Ramirez in the 7th to put the Giants up 4-3. A tie for third could be in the offing.

LaTroy Hawkins is in to relieve.

I was all for trading Brazoban at the insanely inflated closer rate, but if he keeps this up, he won't be worth anything to anyone.

At this point, I'd really like to see him run off a couple good games and then traded.

I really just don't think he's ready for a high-leverage role in a major league bullpen. He really should be back in AAA learning how to pitch. Hell, make it fun for all of us, stick him in Jacksonville with everyone else.

As it stands, in two years Brazoban is going to be an expensive, mediocre reliever. Even closers with 5+ ERA get extra money because they're Closers .

I think there are only two options for him right now. First, send him to the minors for a while, which (1) gives him a chance to learn some more, (2) holds up on the service time clock, and (3) keeps that saves total down come arbitration time. I can't imagine Depo is going to pay Closer Salary to a 2nd or 3rd setup guy, which is what he realistically is. The other option is to get him a string of cushy saves and dump him on a team too stupid to realize what it's doing. (see e.g. Cincinatti)

But who will close? First off, close what? It's not like we're winning. Secondly, we need our best pitchers in the high leverage spots, and he's not our best reliever, or even close to it. Use this as a chance to see what a guy like Schmoll can do. If Jim Tracy is such a great manager of game situations and putting people in good spots and so forth, let's see him do the same with the bullpen. For a guy who is constantly doing this with his hitters, he certainly runs the bullpen by the book. That works when you've got Gagne at the end of the line, but the entire bullpen changes with him gone. No longer does he get to choose the best of Sanchez/Braz/Cararra to work the 7th or 8th. Guys are now forced into situations, regardless of matchups. So Jim, throw the book out the window and show us what you're really capable of doing with a team.

Because the bottom line is that the bullpen are currently structured is not doing the job.

Ahem...we are loaded at first base.His name is James Loney.Remember that name.
Speaking of names,I want to thank Bob for introducing the name of Noodles Hahn to this discussion recently.They don't make names like that anymore although I recently saw a little leaguer play whose given name is Shadow.That's a kid worth rooting for.
Say goodnight,Gracie.

Nate (or anyone, really), regarding Broxton, does it appear that he's going to go the Gagne route on us and simply be able to throw better and harder in short outings? Obviously the guy has killer stuff, but can he do it for 100 pitches? Also, as a starter, do you happen to know if he pretty much just throws hard until he's tired, or does he at least attempt to pace himself a little bit?

473 - I agree that Loney is a good prospect, but in the IF we are weak at 1B compared to 3B and 2B.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-osnotes19,1,3070007.story?coll=bal-sports-headlines&ctrack=1&cset=true

says orioles would be after weaver if burnett falls through.

haydenn penn and nick markakis!

broxton paces himself as a starter. as a starter, he works in the low 90s with a sinking fastball. he was doing really well as a starter, one of our best in the system.

haydenn penn and nick markakis

who are these guys? Found a little info re penn but not too much to get excited about.

The major league LaRoche brother tied it up in San Francisco with a leadoff homer in the 9th against Jamie Walker, the white Yhency Brazoban.

Goldfinger is on Spike. Any guy who is in a slump (and I don't mean Yhancy), needs to watch Sean Connery as Bond for a crash course in cool.

Tyler Walker is my hero

who are these guys? Found a little info re penn but not too much to get excited about.

penn is a high cieling pitching prospect in AA. he is 20 yrs old and was dominating AA then he got called up. he didnt fair to well but he has loads of talent.

markakis is thier #1 prospect. he is an outfield prospect in A+ right now and is a 5 tool player.

3 trade predictions:

weaver to the orioles for haydenn penn and nick markakis

odalis to the rangers for john danks and adrian gonzalez

lowe back to the redsox along with 7mil for hanley ramirez.

Was Koyie Hill's rally killing strikeout really exciting? I missed it.

328 Brendan, just made my way to Dodger Blues to make Phillips run. That's great. But there is only one problem. They have him running home from third and we all know Phillips would never get to third.

Looks like the Dodgers, 4-11 in July have the 1979 and 1968 teams to emulate. They both went an LA worst 7-20 in July.

At Dodger Stadium, they flash a graphic when Phillips bats that he's second among NL catchers in RBI.

Mike Matheny is first.

There aren't many good hitting catchers in the NL.

Dan Kolb is pitching for Atlanta and gave up a leadoff single to Pedro Feliz.

Dan Kolb trumps just about everybody.

484 Steve, saw it on EI. It was short. Only 3 or 4 pitches. Overmatched

Bob or anybody watching the Giant game, I don't think Furcal ever tagged the guy running to second. Another inept umpire call.

The Braves caught a bit of a break. Furcal missed a tag play on Feliz, but the umpires called him out anyway. But Furcal then threw the ball away at first and the batter Cruz is at second with one out. And Kolb is out of the game.

489 -- Scott Long was probably really disappointed then.

490 -- Of course, Furcal gave it back by throwing the ball into the dugout.

But I think the Giants deserve to be at the bad end of all inept decisions.

Feliz gave up too. That probably helped sell the call to the ump.

Who knew (actually Bob T probably did): Oddjob is Korean. (I assumed Chinese) But can he hit left handed pitching. Can you imagine JT taking him out of a game and Oddjob throwing his hat.

Michael Tucker just swung for strike three at the garbagiest garbage that has ever been flung to the plate in utter desperation by a AAA LOOGy. So embarassing.

Jay Powell is still alive.

Amazing.

497 -- I was just thinking that, trying to figure out if this was THAT Jay Powell.

Yep, it's that Jay Powell alright.

Well the Braves deserved to lose that game. The game should have ended with Feliz jogging across home.

Tivo says he was safe. Yhancy Powell

So there it is. We are now tied with the lowly Giants. Rocks here we come.

483 Nate, shouldn't we get some ready major league talent for our supposed major league talent.

485 LAT. You are right. he is scoring from third. That even makes me laugh harder. How absurd.

He was safe, though FOX appears to have put an embargo on any good camera angles, which makes me vaguely suspicious.

July 20 will be Perspective Day!

#483 - perhaps I missed something, but what's with all the talk about trading Perez and Lowe lately? We just signed those guys. I doubt that either contract was signed with the intent of trading them after half a season (can we even do that?). Are either of them not doing what could be expected? We knew Perez was an injury risk. And Derek Lowe and been, well, Derek Lowe.

which jay powell?

Just going through the TiVo seeing what's on, and allegedly, Tommy Lasorda is on tonight with Craig Ferguson. I guess you're all on notice.

Jay Powell, the consistently bad relief pitcher, Jay Powell.

But Dan Kolb got the loss and that's a good thing.

Memo

To: Bud Bundy
From: The Dodgers

Collect your stuff and get out. We are moving into the basement.

supposed to read:

"Derek Lowe HAS been...Derek Lowe"

tommy lasorda and wolf blitzer? what a night.

why do i have absolutely no recollection of jay powell. hrmm.

Jay Powell was the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the 1997 World Series.

Just came in on AP

YANKEES FALL OUT OF FIRST PLACE:
Harold Reynolds and John Kruk Hurl Themselves Out Of Six Story Building In Bristol

So that's sad. Send donations to The Institute for Grabowski Studies in lieu of flowers.

Red Sox acquire Adam Hyzdu for David Cassidy. I think. Does he play a Cora-based position as well?

515- I'm looking for a cushy think-tank job. Any openings at the IGS?

I wish there was, but with the recent shortage of Grabowski, the Institute has had to cut several positions. Plus funding isn't what it used to be with budget cuts.

man, imagine if poor jason grabowski (or worse still, a family member) stumbled upon the dodger blogosphere. how embarrassing/demoralizing for a young aspiring major leaguer to be the butt of so many jokes. grabowski principle, a grabowski think tank. i feel bad for the guy even hypothetically. then on the other hand, if he was a slightly better ballplayer... and it is funny, so i hope he's got thick skin and a good sense of humor, or avoids the internet :)

Well, he's not that young.

yeah. fortunately the "epko principle" oesn't quite have that same ring to it

yeah. fortunately the "repko principle" oesn't quite have that same ring to it

So you can all go to bed, because I know you're all waiting up for Lasorda, Ferguson just said that Lasorda couldn't come on because Jo had to go to the hospital. He says Mrs. Lasorda is ok, but that Tommy will be on another night. Get well soon.

Instead, Julie Warner is on. So all you Julie Warner fans can keep staying up, and all you Tommy Lasorda fans can go to bed.

And, ironically, for those of you looking for a little Julie Warner warm-up, you need look no further than TBS which is showing Tommy Boy right now.

Come to think of it Tommy Boy and Tommy Lasorda have some definite similarities other than Julie Warner. Too many to mention.

wow! 500+ posts. Not a bad day on DT except for the demoralizing loss. I'm sure Jon will be happy to see all the activity but sad that he missed it.

Idiot Joe McDonald(sp?) was on ESPN Radio 710AM on the drive home from work. He had a whole segment or perhaps whole show dedicated to something like "HeeSeop Choi, is there anybody any worse than him?" Then people would call in and say who they thought might be worse and they proceeded to make fun of Choi off and on for the whole show. This guy is a hack and I wanted to call in and say he was worse. What's the deal with the Choi bashing? The guy is like the 6th best hitter on the team. There are plenty of other Dodgers to make fun of. Perhaps it's easy to make fun of the Korean guy that has choppy english!?

Won our softball game tonight 13-9, managed to go 4-5 with four singles, very scrappy.

Over/Under Challenge standings tightened up as my 6 1/3 was the closest guess.

Next game: 7/20 Derek Lowe vs Phillies
7/19 Brad Penny vs Phillies, Result: 6 IPs

Colorado Blue: 7 1/3
CT Bum: 7 (Win)

Howard: 7 2/3
Xeifrank: 6 1/3 (Win)

Joekings: 7 1/3
Louis In SF: 7 (Win)

Standings...
Howard 3-2-0
CT Bum 2-1-2
Xeifrank 2-1-2
Colorado Blue 1-4-0
Louis in SF 1-0-0
Joekings 0-1-0

Speaking of radio shows, the guy filling in for Collin Herd this morning was talking about the Braves and comparing them to the Dodgers. At the All Star break 10 of the Braves 25 starters were rookies due to injuries. They have the 5th best record in the majors and have a patroll of $80M, $8M less than the Dodgers. His point was that the Braves have been hit by injuries every bit as hard as the Dodgers and are still in contention. Why aren't the Dodgers? I don't know how accurate he was and I am sure Fearing has some nunbers to refute it but he made a fairly convincing argument that the Braves GM is much better and, by implication, Depo not nearly as good.

Paging Rob. Paging Rob. Please come to the white courtesy phone. Paging Rob.

527. Thanks for passing that along. Collin Herd is an idiot too, so I am not surprised that his fill-in didn't miss a beat. Jon, Steve, FB, OZ or someone with half a brain needs to get their own sports talk radio show. It's getting to be just as annoying as that Al Franken character. Anyways, the Braves obviously have more at AAA than the Dodgers do. The Dodgers have a great farm system but most of the impact players are at AA and A and thus a year or two away. Depo has only been at the helm for less than two years so he has barely made his mark at the minor league level. He has improved or atleast kept the team at the same level from the roster he inherited and has made some shrewed financial moves along with one or two marginal ones (Lowe, Perez). But his team was wiped out by injuries and you can't rate him very easily on what happened this year. What do people suggest he could've done different? Sign Beltre, Green, Lima, Cora and kept LoDuca, Encarnacion and Mota? We'd be even worse and in a bigger hole financially. Due to the thin AAA roster, any Dodger team in 2005 was susceptable(sp?) to the injury bug, but Hotlanta had some very good AAA fill-ins...players that were drafted before the 2004 amatuer draft. When you got guys like Andruw Jones, Furcal and Betimit in you still have a solid foundation. I'm sure others will have better info to add.
vr, Xei

529-I have half a brain! Maybe the IGS could apoint me to an honorary position (I'm thinking Viceroy) but not pay me. Then with the talk show, I could parlay all that in to a consulting position. Think of how great this would be for me. When Dodger Thoughts was launched, I have to think making my dreams come true was Jon's animating motivation.

529 - Actually, several of the Braves' callups this year have been from AA. Boyer, Francouer, McCann, to name a few.

The Braves don't seem to care too much if player has AAA experience or not; they've even jumped players straight from A ball before (Furcal is the first one that come to mind).

If they have a need or think the player can contribute, they seem to plop them on the Braves roster.

531. Who in the Dodgers minor league system is ready to contribute substantially right now? vr, Xei

Article in wednesdays LA Times is hinting that Valentin may get some training as a left fielder in his minor league rehab stint and then move into a platoon situation in LF. It almost sounded like the platoon would be with Perez, and made no mention of Werth. It was kind of hard to figure out. They hinted that Robles would be full time, so I assume JT would put him at 3b and keep Izzy at SS. Also said that Milton would most likely rejoin the team at the beginning of the next homestand instead of the Mets series at Shea.
vr, Xei

532- Not being a Dodgers fan, I couldn't tell you.

Just pointing out that
1. The Braves had gotten contributions from AA players this season. The Marlins have promoted several pitchers from AA this year alone, too. That Cabrera guy they brought up from AA a couple of years ago worked out pretty well for them, too.

2. A blanket statement that players in AA aren't ready is untrue. If anything, AAA is as much a dumping ground for minor league vets these days as a home for prospects.

If the Dodger players aren't ready, they're not ready - but the fact they're in AA alone doesn't tell you that one way or another.

534. Ok, gotcha! :) My point is that Depodesta can't really be blamed for A) the level of devestation due to injuries the Dodgers have had this year, and B) the lack of having many prospects that are ready to contribute in 2005. And remember, the Braves haven't won anything yet! :) But kudos to them on their winning ways.
vr, Xei

Not a Braves fan, either... just passing through. :P

Department of Faint Praise:
What's the deal with the Choi bashing? The guy is like the 6th best hitter on the team.

Sixth best hitter on a fourth-place team...he should be bulletproof!

First off, let me say that I don't for a second believe that Robles is for real. He's got zero power, and eventually his batting average is going to go the way of Izturis.

That said, I'll go along with the assumption that Robles is going to keep on hitting and that his doing so justifies him being in the lineup the majority of the time. If that's true, the question becomes, is the difference in playing Izturis at shortstop instead of Robles really worth messing with half the lineup? Seriously, because of this insanity we've got (1) Perez, a 2B/"SS" who was learning 3B on the fly now being asked to learn LF on the fly, (2) Valentine a pretty good defensive SS who was moved to 3B already this season trying to learn LR, (3) Kent occassionally moving to 1B, which weakens the defense and displaces Choi from the lineup completely, and (4) Werth, a decent LF, apparantly out on his ass once Bradley comes back, or at least finding himself as part of a potential platoon situation.

Whoever it is that gets bumped from the lineup (Choi, Werth, Valentin, Perez), JT is essentially saying that Izturis' defense at SS is better than Robles's to the extent that is warrants keeping Izturis' bat in the lineup at the expense of one of those aforementioned players. And that is something I absolutely cannot agree with.

Choices:
(a) 1B-Choi, SS-Robles, 3B-Perez/Valentin, LF-Werth
(b) 1B-Choi, SS-Izturis, 3B-Robles, LF-Perez/Werth
(c) 1B-Kent, 2B-Perez, SS-Izturis, 3B-Robles, LF-Werth

Working under this "Robles will keep hitting" assumption, I take choice (a) every time.

Werth "out on his ass" seems like the appropriate response to his total inability to drive in runners. The guy needs to be sent to AAA to work on whatever has gone wrong with his swing. The next Grabowski is a title Werth should work hard to avoid.

It might seem a little ridiculous to put Valentin in LF, but what's really ridiculous is to demand Izturis' firing as first-string shortstop. He hit pretty well last year, he hit very well the first two months of this season, he got injured and starting hitting poorly, and now he's got to play to work himself out of it. No way is he a .345 hitter, but his 2004 average of .288 with a .311 obp is probably about right, and is okay for a bottom of the order hitter who also happens to be a spectacular defensive player. Defense up the middle can be decisive, especially when the Dodgers aren't scoring much.

Robles will cool off, or he won't. But if he stays hot, then Valentin should by all means try to learn LF, because he won't be back to the infield anytime soon. Hopefully, we won't have to suffer through it too often, and by 2006, it will be all over.

Perez in LF--I don't see why not? Again, the consensus of this community is Perez is merely "lucky," and cannot sustain his offensive success. Time will tell. It's not like these games we're playing mean very much. As an old boss once told me, "lucky is better than good."

The us of the phrase wasn't meant to mean that I absolutely disagreed with a decision to give Werth less playing time. You're right, he hasn't looked good at all and could very well use an extended stint in the minors. I think it's pretty well established that while hand injuries technically heal quickly, the effects persist for quite some time. I think there's a good chance he was rushed to the majors due to our lack of better options.

Remember, I prefaced my post with the assumption that Robles has somehow turned himself into an everyday player and that JT and co. believe that they need to find a way to get him into the lineup. At least that's the impression I get when I read about it. They appear to be willing to try just about anything to keep him in there, including all those effects that I mentioned.

I'm not ready to give up on Izturis. I'd trade him in a second, sure, but that's more about perceived vs. actual value than anything else. Given an entire season, I think Izturis would probably be the better player, all things considered. And he's much younger than Robles. But if it means sitting Choi, I'd certainly bench him. But I'd also bench Robles for the same reason.

540 - The same thing could said of Izturis... you think there's a chance in hell he's going to AAA for an extended stint?

OT: I finally caught a game with Steiner/Lyons. Very strange to hear a Dodgers game announced by someone other than Vin for those of us on MLBEI. I thought they were ok, but as with any other broadcast team, they couldn't even carry Vin's Louis Vuitton luggage.

Re: 534/527

Well, the original issue was not when prospects are ready to contribute, but whether or not Schuerholz's (sp?) and DePo's situations were comparable--and they're not, for the simple reason that DePo has only been at the helm for a season and a half. For the same reason, if our prospects pan out, one won't be able to give DePo all the credit for players that had been drafted under Evans. The Atlanta organization is a great one--that track record speaks for itself--but you have to give DePo far more time before you can compare him to Schuerholz in either a positive or negative way.

WWSH

#534: I've done a fairly in depth analysis of the Braves 40-man roster. The Braves do not typically promote players from below AAA. Based on a comparison of the Angels and Braves organization, I'd say it's actually a Braves organizational philosophy to develop players slowly. On their 40-man roster, only the following players were promoted from AA or below, plus a note about the circumstances:

Rafael Furcal - In 2001, promoted to the majors at 22.4 years old after just three games in AA. On the other hand, he had completed 4 minor league seasons prior to his promotion (2 Rookie, 1 A, 1 A+).

Horacio Ramirez - In 2003, promoted to the majors at 23.4 years old after a full year in AA. The prior year Ramirez was also in AA, but missed most of the season due to injury.

Blaine Boyer - In 2004, promoted to the majors at 23.9 years old after a couple months in AA. Prior to joining AA, he had three full years of A ball experience (2 A, 1 A+). So far, he's only contributed 14.0 IP, so a comparable for the Dodgers would be Derek Thompson.

Brian McCann - In 2004, promoted to the majors at 21.3 years old after a couple months in AA. In the majors, he's had all of 39 at-bats. Only called up due to an injury to Eddie Perez.

Jeff Franceour - In 2004, promoted to the majors at 21.5 years old after three months in AA. In the majors, he's had all of 19 at-bats. Only called up due to an injury to Brian Jordan.

So, in conclusion, Rafael Furcal was an exceptionally mature defensive shortstop who made it to the majors after only 4 minor league seasons. Blaine Boyer is a relatively old bullpen arm who is comparable to Derek Thompson. McCann and Franceour are having their service time clocks started early due to injuries. Even then, McCann and Franceour are spending the majority of their major league service time sitting on the bench. I would venture to guess that Schuerholz is not very excited about having to have them both on the major league roster as backups.

#543: In my conclusion, I missed Horacio Ramirez. Ramirez is sort of a strange example of an early promotion because he had 6 years of minor league experience and was not promoted until almost 24 years old. Not only did he spend 3 full years in A-ball (2 A, 1 A+), he also spent a year injured.

#534: If you made the blanket statement that players in AA are not ready to make an impact at the major league level, you'd probably be right for at least 99.5% of the time. It's not that rare for a player to be called up from AA or below, but it is rare for them to have the skills to have a major league impact. For every Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and even Rafael Furcal who are able to make an immediate impact, there are at least 20 future impact players who need experience beyond AA before making a major league impact (e.g. Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Marcus Giles, Odalis Perez, etc.)