Baseball Toaster Dodger Thoughts
Jon Weisman's outlet
for dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers
and baseball.
Frozen Toast
Google Search
Dodger Thoughts

02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

09  08  07 
About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Standings, Standings, What Do You See?
2005-07-14 09:42
by Jon Weisman

Lots and lots of teams with better records than me ...

So with all the talk about how mediocre the 48-41 Padres have been for a division leader, they do have the fourth-best record in the National League, and are closer to the 52-36 Nationals for the second-best record than any they are to any of the NL West teams in their rear-view mirror. And with all the you-never-know about how the Dodgers maybe might somehow nnngh pull it together, you can't forget that San Diego might pull it together even tighter.

(Ah, it. Why must you always stray? Why must we always be pulling you?)

In other words, even if the Dodgers somehow managed to play winning baseball in the second half, it's even more likely that the Padres would. And that would be that.

Playing .539 ball this season, an 87-win pace, the Padres are actually about where I thought they would be in 2005. I just didn't think that would be good enough to put them in first.

For that matter, playing .478 ball for a 77-win pace, the Diamondbacks are about where I thought they would be as well. But who knew that would be enough for second?

The surprises are the Dodgers and Giants being so far below .500. (Dodger Thoughts reader Lewis Leader, a former sportswriter and managing editor of the Monterey County Herald, e-mailed to say that only in three seasons since moving to California have the two teams finished with losing records in the same year.) So who has their victories in a league with only three teams on a 90-win pace? It's Washington, of course - the one truly overachieving team in the senior circuit, to use a hoary term.

The Dodgers are 40-48 - really a lousy record. I checked back to see how many Los Angeles Dodger teams have been just five games below .500 after 88 games, and whether any of them recovered.

1999: 40-48. Subsequent peak: 65-71. Finish: 77-85.

1992: 39-49. Subsequent peak: 40-49. Finish: 63-99.

1989: 41-47. Subsequent peak and finish: 77-83.

1987: 39-49. Subsequent peak: 47-56. Finish: 73-89.

1986: 40-48. Subsequent peak: 54-53. Finish: 73-89.

1979: 36-52. Subsequent peak: 79-81. Finish: 79-83.

1968: 41-47. Subsequent peak: 41-48. Finish: 76-86.

1967: 37-51. Subsequent peak: 58-66. Finish: 73-89.

1958: 41-47. Subsequent peak: 60-63. Finish: 71-83.

The good news is that the 2005 Dodger team is only the 10th in 48 seasons in Los Angeles to have this poor a record after 88 games - that's a nice standard.

But of the previous nine, none even made it back to .500 for the season, and only the 1979 team played above .500 the rest of the way. (The 1999 and 1989 teams played exactly .500).

If the 2005 Dodgers rallied at the pace of the 1979 team by going 43-31 (.581), they would finish 83-79 - still probably not enough to win the National League West.

It would be simply unprecedented in Los Angeles Dodger history for the team to rally from the position it holds today.

But you know, that doesn't mean you can't enjoy the games. Please, don't start watching televised poker. If I read one more article about how poker is sweeping the nation, I'm gonna fold.

And speaking of things of television ... Scrubs and Arrested Development - good on ya in the Emmy nominations today.

Comments (195)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-07-14 09:59:18
1.   Vishal
well, i don't know the stories of the other 9 dodger teams... maybe they were just bad teams all around. but because this one has been losing primarily due to injuries, maybe if the dodgers get some more players back off the DL, that can spark a winning second half. there's some hope there, at least.

and i don't get the poker-watching craze either. seeing rounders is pretty much as far as i'm willing to go in that direction.

2005-07-14 10:01:57
2.   fanerman
I don't understand the poker craze either. Some people really like it. But I bet a lot of people like it only because other people like it. ie, a fad.

Anyway, for this Dodger team to overcome the odds... it needs a team better than the opening day team. As others have said, we have to play over .600 ball or so to get a shot at the playoffs, and the team we had on opening day was more of a .570 team. Or maybe they can get insanely lucky.

2005-07-14 10:05:08
3.   Jon Weisman
I'd be with you, Vishal, except the Dodgers aren't getting Drew back for two months, if at all, they aren't getting Gagne back ... who knows when Bradley will return? Certainly, nothing's impossible, but it's not like the bad times are over. The team has been losing primarily due to injuries ... that are not healed.

I suppose DePo could pull off a miracle, but that's asking a lot of anyone.

2005-07-14 10:08:05
4.   Bob Timmermann
The teams Jon referenced above were all pretty bad. They either had a lot of injuries or the team was in a transition.

1979 is the only season that all three California NL teams had losing records.

2005-07-14 10:11:47
5.   Jacob L
Poker on t.v. is like golf on t.v. in that its pretty engrossing if you play, and excrutiatingly dull if you don't. That means I like them both, but the new style poker-as-entertainment packaging is a big turn-off. I'd rather just watch the games.
2005-07-14 10:12:54
6.   bigcpa
Hee Seop, Hee Seop what do you see?

I see a barrel of David Sunflower seeds and a Gatorade jug looking at me.

2005-07-14 10:12:57
7.   mcrawford
I've been trying to find a place or a way to see how many teams have been 7-8 games back halfway through the season, and how many have come back to win the division. But I can't find it (without doing hours of pointing and clicking at

Fortunately, that's the only number that matters, the 7-8 games back (which is still a lot). 40-48 is terrible, but, well, you know.

I find that I always follow the team with hope, sometimes unrealistically, but that's my nature. Part of it is probably an unconscious response to my dad, who is the consummate pessimist. He gleefully recounts all the ways the Dodgers are bad and hopeless (yes, he's a Dodger fan). I find it frustrating.

2005-07-14 10:13:20
8.   Howard Fox
2 - the opening day team went 12-2 against the west...we spend much of September playing the west

that being said, all things considered, with all due respect, given that things even could happen...who knows...

if we ever get healthy enough to resemble the lineup those first 2 weeks

2005-07-14 10:14:08
9.   mcrawford
I meant any teams who have been 7-8 games back at this point, not just the Dodgers.
2005-07-14 10:14:56
10.   fanerman
A healthy opening day line-up and more than our fair share of luck is what we need. And some bullpen help. And perhaps A.J. Burnett. We need Bradley badly (no pun intended, I swear).
2005-07-14 10:17:42
11.   Colorado Blue
I will NEVER watch televised poker... If I have a hankering for some poker, then I'm going to call my buddies up and have a game myself!

As for the the rest of the season, I have changed my view of the season and it is working. I'm no longer worried about the Dodgers winning or losing, but rather how the youngsters are faring; who is performing well, who may perform well, who is being the most consistent... I'm finding it rather enjoyable.

I have really enjoyed watching Robles lately. I'm wondering if he is just a fluke or really has major league talent. We'll never know though... Tracy would never go with Robles over Izzy even if Robles OBP is .407. Tracy would come up with one of those indecipherable reasons why it's better to have Izzy and his .322 OBP and horrific slump in the leadoff spot.

In summary, I say get as much for Izzy as you can while his perceived value is high... don't wait until he finishes the season with a .300 OBP.

2005-07-14 10:19:11
12.   fanerman
How old is Robles?
2005-07-14 10:20:15
13.   Colorado Blue
12 - He's 29.
2005-07-14 10:21:02
14.   fanerman
Nevermind... just looked it up.
2005-07-14 10:23:47
15.   Xeifrank
I agree that it is very unlikely the Dodgers can play .600+ ball the rest of the way to catch the Padres or wild-card. More than likely our best chances are a total meltdown by the Padres. Perhaps some key injuries to them leading to a poor 2nd half, the D-Backs playing .500 ball and the Dodgers playing just good enough to catch both teams. This is very unlikely to happen, but probably their best scenario for winning the division. They do have alot of head to head games in the division remaining, which gives them a chance to win it. But on the flip side, it also gives them just as good of a chance to drop completely off the radar.
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 10:25:38
16.   fanerman
Robles has a BABIP of .400, which is pretty high considering his line drive percentage is only 22.7. Maybe he's a little lucky?

To compare, Jeff Kent's BABIP is .317 and his line drive percentage is 24.5.

Choi (who as someone here said is the unluckiest man in baseball) has a BABIP of .250 with a line drive percentage of 27.6.

2005-07-14 10:26:16
17.   Colorado Blue
Some background on Robles courtesy of Baseball Prospectus:

As a backup to Edwards the Dodgers can use Olmedo Saenz--not really convincing as a third baseman but passable in an emergency--and Oscar Robles. Robles is an interesting example of the advantages of scouting international teams in places like the Mexican League. A Tijuana native who prepped in San Diego, Robles was drafted as a shortstop by Houston in 1994 and made it all the way to Triple-A for three games in 1997. He was intractably stuck in the depth chart behind Carlos Guillen and Julio Lugo, and when a badly dislocated ankle caused him to miss all of 1999 he was released by the Astros. Robles hooked up with the Mexican League in 2000, where he posted a cumulative line of .334/.429/.380 in his five years there. He joined the Dodgers in spring training this year and hit a robust .438/.514/.563 in 32 at-bats. Again, as with Edwards, the lack of power is concerning and could be exposed by the tougher pitchers in the major leagues, but for a backup shortstop/third baseman, a reasonable batting average with some plate discipline should be useful.

I think the lack of power is not at all a problem for a leadoff guy with an above average OBP.

2005-07-14 10:26:26
18.   Xeifrank
As far as televised poker goes, I watched it a few times just to see what the buzz was all about. The only thing I found half way interesting was watching some of the bluffing taking place. Overall, I'd enjoy a televised game of teatherball just as much.
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 10:27:33
19.   Marty
I guess I have to be the lone defender of poker. I've been playing serious poker (by that I mean mid-low stakes at card clubs as opposed to home games) for 15 years and love it. But I've always been a gambler too. But I don't think I'm so reckless as to bet the Dodgers will win the division this year. :)
2005-07-14 10:28:11
20.   Colorado Blue
15 - I agree Xei and I would add that if at least some of the replacement players are the real deal then improvement in their play could be a big factor as well.
2005-07-14 10:29:25
21.   fanerman
I got nothing against poker. I just don't like it on TV. And I don't like how it's become a fad (at least among many people I know). Like pogs. I think poker is a much more dignified game than pogs, don't you?
2005-07-14 10:29:37
22.   Bob Timmermann
The Padres have already lost Mark Loretta for a sizeable chunk of the season. Phil Nevin is on the DL. Dave Roberts has been off and on the DL. Ramon Hernandez has been on the DL. Adam Eaton is on the DL. Even among their bench players, both Eric Young and Geoff Blum have had stints on the DL.

Unless you are expecting a plague of locusts to descend on PETCO park, I don't think the Padres are going to get worse.

2005-07-14 10:30:46
23.   Colorado Blue
16 - Maybe he's just more blessed at hitting them where they ain't... I hate to use the term luck because it implies that it is completely random and a turn around is inevitable.
2005-07-14 10:33:21
24.   fanerman
#23 - Colorado Blue,
Robles seems like a good hitter with good plate discipline. I'm just saying he probably isn't gonna keep that 350 average up.
2005-07-14 10:34:52
25.   Marty
21. But a poker player's dream is to be in a game with someone who has lots of money and no clue how to really play. So, you have LOVE that it has become a fad. It brings in lots of people who have no idea how to play, but know how to lose.
2005-07-14 10:35:58
26.   fanerman
Haha okay. As long as YOU are making money then it's all good =).
2005-07-14 10:37:36
27.   Colorado Blue
24 - The odds are that you are correct and that will definitely impact his OBP more than say a player like Drew... and even more so that Tracy will relegate him to a backup role the second Izzy is available.
2005-07-14 10:42:01
28.   Fearing Blue
Minor League Update (REPOST in case anyone missed the previous thread)
Statistical summary format is AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters and ERA/IP/K/BB for pitchers.

Las Vegas 51s (AAA):
The International League beat the Pacific Coast League 11 - 5 in the AAA All-Star game.

The 51s second baseman Joe Thurston went 0 for 1 as a pinch-hitter.

Jacksonville Suns (AA):
The North division beat the South division 12 - 5 in the Southern League All-Star game.

The Suns did not have a good showing in the game. Catcher Russell Martin, second baseman Delwyn Young, shorstop Joel Guzman, and center fielder Jon Weber went a combined 0 for 12. Joel Guzman made a couple of bad plays in the field. In the 5th, with teammate Luis Gonzalez pitching, Guzman let a potential double-play grounder roll through his legs into left field for an error. Gonzalez proceeded to give up 4 runs (3 earned) on 3 hits and a walk while only recording two outs in the innings (both strikeouts). In the 6th, Guzman aired the relaw throw on a potential double-play about 5 feet over the first baseman's head. Since they got the lead runner, no error was charged.

Vero Beach Dodgers (High-A):
The Dodgers lost 3 - 2 to Clearwater.

Center fielder Matt Kemp again led the Dodgers offense, going 2 for 3 with a solo homerun and a walk (.284/.323/.588). Shorstop Tony Abreu (.320/.346/.433) and designated hitter Jamie Hoffman (.259/.250/.259) each went 1 for 4. First baseman Cory Dunlap (.275/.375/.364) and right fielder Anthony Raglani (.287/.389/.441) were held hitless in the game.

Starting pitcher Danny Muegge received a no-decision after allowing 2 runs (both earned) in 6 innings pitched. Muegge allowed 5 hits (1 homerun) and no walks while striking out 2 (3.39/69.0/47/23). Reliever Matt Merricks was tagged with the loss, allowing 1 run (earned) in 2 innings pitched. Merricks had trouble with his control, allowing 1 hit and 4 walks while striking out 1 (4.50/9.2/12/6). Twenty-one year old right-hander Alvis Ojeda pitched a scoreless 9th to finish the game. Ojeda only allowed 1 walk while striking out 2 (3.57/35.1/19/13).

Columbus Catfish (Low-A):
The Catfish won 5 - 4 over Greenville.

In his first game with the Raptors, right fielder Sergio Pedroza went 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored (.333/.500/.333). First baseman Daniel Batz paced the offense falling a triple short of the cycle (3 for 4) with 2 RBIs (.288/.355/.377). Designated hitter Blake Dewitt went 1 for 4 with a double (.271/.318/.424). Second baseman Travis Denker was held hitless for the second game in a row, going 0 for 4 (.287/.403/.508).

Starting pitcher Christopher Malone had a little Grabowski going through the first 4 innings of the games (1 walk). But, over his final two innings he allowed 3 runs (all earned) on 3 hits and 2 walks. In his 6 innings pitched, Malone struck out 9 (4.11/92.0/83/38). Malone, a 22 year old righty, was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2004 out of San Joaquin Delta Junior College in California. Wesley Wright, a 20 year old lefty, followed up with 2.2 quality innings of relief. Wright allowed 1 run (unearned) on a hit and a hit-by-pitch with 6 strikeouts (2.11/47.0/49/23). Wright was selected by the Dodgers in the 7th round of the 2003 draft. Albenis Castillo came on in relief with 2 men on and 2 out. Castillo struck out the only batter he faced for the save (2.45/36.2/31/14).

Ogden Raptors (Rookie):
The Raptors were crushed by Helena 13 - 5.

Right fielder BJ Richmond had the best night at the plate, going 2 for 2 with a solo homerun and 2 walks (.297/.392/.438). Twenty-one year old Richmond struggled with Columbus before joining the Raptors to start the short season. Shorstop Juan Rivera went 1 for 5 with an RBI (.306/.390/.375). Designated hitter Jesus Soto went 1 for 5 with a run scored (.309/.350/.500). "Gawky" first baseman David Sutherland went 1 for 3 with a double (.440/.520/.500). The double is just Sutherland's 3rd extra-base hit on the season (84 ABs). Third baseman Russell Mitchell went 0 for 3 with a run scored (.319/.330/.649). Catcher Juan Apodaca went 0 for 3 (.333/.362/.621).

Starter Cody White got spanked for 6 runs (all earned) over 4 innings (7.29/21/18/14) to take the loss. Reliever Nathan Hochgesang pitched 1.2 innings of relief, allowing 4 runs (none earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks with no strikeouts (4.60/15.2/11/7). Hochgesang, a 23 year old right-hander, was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2004 and pitched well for the GCL Dodgers last year. Right-hander Matthew Gomez de Segura allowed 3 runs (all earned) over the last 2.1 innings to finish the game (7.84/10.1/7/11).

GCL Dodgers (Rookie):
The Dodgers got beat 11 - 5 by the GCL Marlins.

Third baseman Eduardo Perez and catcher Carlos Medero-Stultz rejoined the team after filling in for Andy LaRoche and Russell Martin in Jacksonville. Perez started at designated hitter and went 0 for 4 with a walk and strikeout (.341/.449/.463). Medero-Stultz started the game at catcher and went 0 for 2 (.300/.333/.533) before being pulled for Kenley Janson. Janson finished the game at catcher and went 1 for 2 with a strikeout (.310/.310/.414). Jansen is a 17-year old switch-hitting catcher. Third baseman Josh Bell went 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI (.302/.351/.396). Carlos Santana did not play in the game. The GCL Dodgers have a logjam at third base with Santana, Perez, and Bell all capable of playing the position. Santana has been primarily playing in left field to relieve the crunch. Center fielder Jeremy Brown went 1 for 4 with a walk, 2 strikeouts, and an RBI (.280/.419/.280).

Starting pitcher Gary Paris was hammered for 5 runs (all earned) in 1.2 innings. Paris allowed 7 hits and 3 walks while not striking out any batters (6.75/10.2/11/10). Prior to this game, Paris had only allowed 3 earned runs in 9 innings of relief. Twenty year old Kelvin Dominguez and nineteen year old Chale Dasni pitched the final 6.1 innings of the game. Dominguez allowed 2 runs (both earned) over 2.1 innings of relief (4.50/4/4/2). Dasni allowed 4 runs (all earned) over 4 innings of relief (7.02/16.2/13/7).

The GCL Dodgers have had few bright spots on the short season so far. Tonight's game dropped the team's overall record to 5 - 11, worst in the Gulf Coast League. Even though the team boasts the Dodgers two 2nd round picks and one 3rd round pick, most of the Dodgers Rookie level talent is bunched up at Ogden.

2005-07-14 10:42:12
29.   Colorado Blue
24 - I guess I would add that I think Robles/Izzy in comparison of ability/$$$ is a wash so let's get some goods for Izzy while we can.
2005-07-14 10:43:15
30.   fanerman
If Izzy can get us something we need then yeah I agree. I'm sure Steve would, too.
2005-07-14 10:44:18
31.   dzzrtRatt
The number don't lie, and yet I think this is where "Moneyball" theories could start upsetting the historical averages. Until recently, how typical was it for teams like the A's to engage in a deliberate strategy of waiting through a mediocre first half of the season to assess their own strengths and weaknesses and the level of competition, in furtherance of a conscious that is designed to dominate the second half?

The Dodgers are in a different situation, I recognize. They weren't trying to hoard payroll like Beane had to do. They were obviously expecting to compete through the first half with the Drew-Bradley-Gagne-Valentin-Odalis team, not the Edwards-Robles-Repko team.

We're probably toast. But I don't think you can say for sure until the trading deadline. With the pitching we've got, this current team could play much better if:

-- Milton Bradley returns soon
-- Izturis' slump turns out to be injury related and he resumes the hitting we saw the first couple months
-- Robles holds down the fort at 3B until Valentin returns to a platoon role with him
-- DePo swings a trade for a hitter to replace Drew's production without having to give up Weaver

It also might be advisable to switch Kent to first base and let Perez have the majority of the starts at second.

An infield of Kent-Perez-healthy Izzy-Robles + healthy Valentin, with an outfield of Bradley-Werth/Ledee-Adam Dunn, is capable of playing .600 ball assuming Weaver and Penny continue as they have, and Lowe and Perez snap out of their funks.

In San Diego, Peavey seems to be returning to earth, Roberts is suffering from his predictable injuries, and their 3-4-5 hitters are who they are--streaky. The Padres should win the division. But we're still in it if we don't utterly screw up the next 10 games or so.

2005-07-14 10:44:58
32.   Xeifrank
22. Good point, they have had their share of injuries. I'd say they need to lose Peavy, Giles and Hoffman for 2+ months for an implosion to occur. :)
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 10:45:27
33.   Fearing Blue
#22: Exactly. The Padres have also been hit hard by significant injuries. They are just now starting to get healthy, so expecting them to play worse is unlikely. Thus, the target for winning the division has to be at least 86 wins, which would require a .621 pace for the Dodgers going forward.
2005-07-14 10:46:34
34.   Fearing Blue
#28: I got the score backwards for the AAA All-Star game. The Pacific Coast League beat the International League.
2005-07-14 10:46:59
35.   dzzrtRatt
that should be "a conscious strategy"
2005-07-14 10:49:08
36.   Fearing Blue
#31: Only two teams have played .620+ baseball so far this season, the Cardinals and the White Sox. The Dodgers team you proposed is still not as good as either one of them.
2005-07-14 10:50:45
37.   Colorado Blue
32, 33,22 - Yes, which is why I have changed my expectations for the season... I will always be a Dodgers fan so when the season looks lost find another reason to follow it. A .621 pace is not unheard of, but very unlikely for the current roster of Dodgers.
2005-07-14 10:56:45
38.   Xeifrank
The wild-card looks like even more of a longshot than winning the division. The number of teams we have to jump over is staggering, which includes all of the NL East, most of the NL Central and the D-Backs. If this were hockey we'd probably be looking pretty good. :)
. . . . . .
Still have openings in the Over/Under Challenge. Four signups, looking for atleast 8 more before beginning. Email me if interested in joining or for the details (
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 11:02:49
39.   FirstMohican
28 - About "Jamie Hoffman (.259/.250/.259)"

How can OBP be lower than AVG? Does this mean that OBP is calculated using plate appearances rather than official ABs? If that's true, a sacrifice does nothing to your average, yet it hurts your OBP?

I expect a barrage of condescending remarks after this question...

2005-07-14 11:04:00
40.   fanerman
Yes that's right. A sacrifice hurts your OBP but does nothing to your AVG, so it's possible (and more likely early in the season) to have a higher AVG than OBP.
2005-07-14 11:04:52
41.   dzzrtRatt
I'm going to tonight's game, my first one since opening day. The very old vs. the very young. Like a concert featuring the Rolling Stones and the winner of a high school battle of the bands. One of the Dodger hitters will hit a fly ball to Moises Alou or Marquis Grissom. They'll forget where they put their glasses and the ball will drop. But the Dodger hitter will still be out because he'll suffer a season-ending injury running to first base.
2005-07-14 11:05:12
42.   Xeifrank
Which stage are we at?

DENIAL --- This can't be happening to us. Gagne is probably just on vacation, and Drew he's just kidding he's alright.

ANGER --- "%$@^##& Tracy/Depodesta!" How could he do this to us. He screwed up the team, bunt, bunt, bunt. Fire the bastard!

BARGAINING --- "Ok, if all the Padres players get hurt and we trade for Dunn and AROD we are right back in the hunt. We can play .621 ball if everything goes our way! I know we can."

DEPRESSION --- "Oh God, what are we going to do!? We are 7.5 games out and are about to be passed by the Giants of all teams."

ACCEPTANCE --- "Oh well, there's always next year. Let's give some of the young kids a chance to play!"

vr, Xei

2005-07-14 11:11:16
43.   Colorado Blue
42 - I moved along to ACCEPTANCE about 3 weeks ago.
2005-07-14 11:12:45
44.   Bob Timmermann
I hope Marquis Grissom is playing CF. I'm pretty sure he's injured and can probably cover about 10 feet of ground in CF.

So which game will be win #10,000 for the Giants?

I would think tonight's game would be the Giants best chance as the Dodgers seem to have trouble hitting Jason Schmidt even when he's at half-speed.

I should be going Saturday afternoon. Perez vs. Tomko.

That could be pretty ugly for both teams.

2005-07-14 11:13:22
45.   Colorado Blue
42 - I should have added that still think there is a chance at winning the division, but I will now be ok either way.
2005-07-14 11:16:15
46.   fanerman
Any Lakers fans? Nate? Apparently the Caron/Kwame deal has gone through. I don't know what to think yet...
2005-07-14 11:17:59
47.   Xeifrank
46. yeah, big fan here. Should be one of those deals that's good for both teams. Glad the Lakers didn't have to throw in the Miami #1 pick, and Brown's 3rd year is a team option. Still a year or two away from being a force.
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 11:18:36
48.   jpeace

The emergence of Robles has been the highlight of this season for me. I hope Tracy keeps him in the lineup.

Our bullpen is too weak to do anything in the post season anyways.

2005-07-14 11:24:08
49.   Colorado Blue
48 - I'm with you completely on Robles... however, dial into ACCEPTANCE that Tracy will NOT keep Robles in the lineup. Just as he is biased against Choi, conversely he is partial to Izzy. It won't matter that Robles is performing well.

Hopefully DePo is more objective about the situation and can trade Izzy for pitching help or another big bat. Tracy then would have little choice but to keep Robles in the lineup at short.

2005-07-14 11:24:57
50.   Jon Weisman
Is there any doubt that Robles is just doing what Izturis did in May? It's been fun, but Robles has four extra-base hits and seven walks in 92 plate appearances.

Comment #16 is on to it ... Robles is likable but he will fade.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-07-14 11:25:31
51.   fanerman
Just past depression and into acceptance. I'll be taking it a game at a time but I don't expect a comeback. Who knows though?

I still don't know about Kwame. I hope he can put it together. All the news I've heard has been encouraging though. I'm a little skeptical, but also excited and curious. I remember last offseason when everyone was saying, "it'll be an interesting season." I think the "interesting season" we expected last year will be here this season.

2005-07-14 11:26:31
52.   Bob Timmermann
I think Oscar Robles has a good chance of becoming the next Rafael Bournigal.
2005-07-14 11:28:42
53.   Steve
Who knew there would ever be another one?
2005-07-14 11:28:57
54.   Colorado Blue
50 - Well, Izturis has all ready faded. Maybe Izzy was hurt, who knows. At least Tracy should wait until Robles does fade...

Of course, I base all this on the act that I think DePo should trade Izzy.

2005-07-14 11:32:54
55.   Bob Timmermann
Preston Wilson homered in his first AB with the Nationals.

But Cristian Guzman is still starting for Washington. He has a season OPS of .525. Did Weaver give up a home run to him?

2005-07-14 11:36:43
56.   fanerman
Heart-And-Soul TM syndrome?
2005-07-14 11:37:43
57.   Colorado Blue
52 - In what context? Not in career minor league OBP:
RB: .331
OR: .401
2005-07-14 11:42:25
58.   Bob Timmermann
I wasn't being enitrely serious, I just thought of another middle infielder who just sort of came and went with the Dodgers.
2005-07-14 11:53:51
59.   stubbs
57-Bob Timmerman would hit .300 in the Mexican League. I think Fernando won the Cy Young award down there last year. Oscar Robles has had a nice couple of weeks...he is a fringe major leaguer and any talk of trading Izturis because of his emergence is just plain dumb.

Tony Jackson article in the Daily News this morning was interesting. Doesn't seem to like Drew (the run producer factor, 212 with RISP etc), called Weaver our ace, very harsh on Jason Phillips. Also noted that Lowe has been terrible on the road.

2005-07-14 11:55:10
60.   Bob Timmermann
I don't think I could hit .300 in the Mexican League. I have Jason Phillips like running speed mixed with Nori Nakamura bat speed.
2005-07-14 11:55:22
61.   JeffinTokyo
I'm sure I'm not alone in saying how enjoyable it is to read this site. Even when I don't post, I read. Props to Jon and all the posters.

Great article on Nippon Pro Yakyu Bob. Glad you enjoyed your stay. By the way, one of the stars on the first place Softbank Hawks is "old friend" Jolby Cabrera.

FWIW, Yu Darvish's father is Iranian. His professional debut was delayed by a few weeks because he was photographed smoking a cigarette during spring training by a sports tabloid here. The legal age is 20, and he is only 18. He was returned home for two weeks during spring training to reflect on what he had done.

Two points

2005-07-14 11:55:43
62.   JeffinTokyo
to follow
2005-07-14 11:57:35
63.   Colorado Blue
58 - Yeah, after I thought about it a bit more I figured that may be the case... I shouldn't always be so serious myself.
2005-07-14 11:58:33
64.   JeffinTokyo
1. The Dodgers are merely one 12-2 streak away from contention.

2. Am I the only one disturbed by the fact that Homeland Security resources were used to bust alleged counterfeit t-shirt sellers? I guess all the ports must be secured.

2005-07-14 11:59:40
65.   fanerman
Rob on 6-4-2 also is disturbed.

Lowe's been about the same on the road or away. What's his beef with Philips?

2005-07-14 12:00:39
66.   Louis in SF
I agree with most that the Dodgers catching the Padres/Padres melting down is remote. They too have had key injuries, but I think their existing healthy players are better than ours, and I believe they have no players who are out for the rest of the year. We have Gagne, our situational lefty and perhaps Drew.

Saying all of this I would like to see an intelligent look at who are players are for the future and who needs more seasoning. In the old days players were sometimes brought up early to give them a taste of the majors in the hops it would hasten their development. I realize that is a subjective decision, but those are some of the things that I see. I also think that if Kent doesn't play first, we need to see Choi, accept that he will look bad against many left handers but see if he improves..On the Choi, Tracy DePodesta issue, my theroy is that Tracy wants to find away to get Choi 20 homers with the least amount of at bats to satisfy a DePodesta spring comment, something to the effect, if Choi hits 20 homers and drives in 65, will be happy. He may indeed get close to that, but if it is not a part of the offense are we really developing him.

2005-07-14 12:01:32
67.   fanerman
I mean at home or away... d'oh!
2005-07-14 12:02:07
68.   Colorado Blue
59 - I've mentioned this before, but approximately half of OR's totals are from the Mexican league. The rest are from various levels in the states. Granted, his totals are bit higher from the Mexican League, but it could also have to do with his maturing.
2005-07-14 12:04:30
69.   stubbs

Easier than quoting.

2005-07-14 12:04:43
70.   fanerman
#67 and #42,
Regarding Choi...
After a near-miracle second half comeback, my only real desire for the rest of the season is regular playing time for Choi. If nothing else, I want to see that.
2005-07-14 12:04:44
71.   Colorado Blue
59 - "...and any talk of trading Izturis because of his emergence is just plain dumb."


2005-07-14 12:05:19
72.   JeffinTokyo
59. franklin, Robles was a 3rd round draft choice. He made it up to AAA. Family tragedies delayed his progress. He might not be a power threat, but he's a legit hitter.
2005-07-14 12:06:12
73.   Bob Timmermann
I was going to mention Darvish's Iranian background and his smoking problem, but I ran out of space.

Funny how that you can't smoke in Japan legally until you're 20. Then everybody starts smoking it seems.

2005-07-14 12:07:44
74.   Steve
We're trading Izturis because of the emergence of Joel the Destroyer(TM), while Izturis is at his peak market value because the dumb players voted him into All Star Game despite his being 9th in the NL in defensive win shares.
2005-07-14 12:07:51
75.   stubbs
I personally dont think Oscar Robles adds enough to what Izturis gives us on offense to warrant trading the premier defensive SS in the NL.
2005-07-14 12:09:50
76.   JeffinTokyo
73. Bob. Yeah Japan is a smoker's paradise. About the only smoke free places are the Starbucks. Last year they passed laws in Shinagawa ward (in Tokyo) that it is illegal to smoke and walk on the streets. Well, I work in Shinagawa, and I can attest that this is one law that is not being enforced.
2005-07-14 12:09:51
77.   stubbs
trading Izturis cause Guzman is ready is a whole different ball of wax...I draw the line when people are trading Izturis to open the door Oscar Robles...just so insane. The backlash against Depodesta would be somewhat funny to watch though.
2005-07-14 12:11:09
78.   Colorado Blue
75 - But I would take into account Steve's #74 post... we really need a bridge until the younger group is ready. Robles is much cheaper than Izzy and I think his (Izzy's)value may be over estimated by other clubs.

Yeah, his D might not be upto to Izzy's level, but my guess is that is not far off.

2005-07-14 12:12:41
79.   Colorado Blue
77 - I would rather have Robles and another big bat or arm (SP or bullpen) than Izzy alone.
2005-07-14 12:15:34
80.   Steelyeri
I am still optimistic about the Dodgers' chances (You could say that I'm in denial, I guess, but I just can't help it. Thats just who I am). I'm with dzzrtRatt and his post #31. Moneyball teams do tend to have unusually good second halves. Didn't the 2002 A's have the best record after the all star break? I beleive that was the season when they won 20 games in a row. If I give up on the season this early my heart would be broken.
2005-07-14 12:16:14
81.   Steve
I agree that Oscar Robles is not the answer at shortstop. I mean, watching Izturis hit .330 for two months ought to convince us that banjo-hitting shortstops don't easily change their stripes.

It comes down to this. Izturis is not untouchable. He could go in the right deal and we bridge the gap to JtD with Robles and/or Darth Offerman, or if the price isn't right, we watch Izturis fail at leadoff hitting for another couple of years. Which will frustrate me, but we could be paying Jimmy Rollins.

2005-07-14 12:16:28
82.   JeffinTokyo
The Dodgers can trade for big contract veterans for the "stretch drive" and build for the future at the same time. How? By taking on the remainder of the contracts. By doing that, they could give up second and third tier prospects. Then, when the guys the Dodgers trade for become free agents next year, we can either sign them at a fair price or take the draft choices if we lose them.
2005-07-14 12:20:05
83.   Eric L
In a world where Jimmy freaking Rollins is making an average of $8 million a year with his new contract, Izturis is still a relative bargain.

Don't get me wrong... if DePo can get someone to overpay for Izzy, than by all means, he should do it.

On the other hand, Izzy is signed for the rest of this season and 2 more seasons for a little over $3 million a year. I'm guessing because he is a fixed cost and Guzman (or whomever else) is still a couple of years away, Steve is gonna have to see Izzy in a Dodger uniform past this season.

2005-07-14 12:21:26
84.   Bob Timmermann
We have the wrong Guzman. I'm sure Jim Bowden would love to dump Cristian on us. We could send him Izturis. Or Robles. Or some S&H Green Stamps.
2005-07-14 12:22:20
85.   Steve
84 -- Yeah, I think Izturis would probably annoy me less if he was hitting eighth where he belongs. Like Repko. Can we have Kent hit third and everyone else hit eighth?
2005-07-14 12:24:32
86.   Colorado Blue
81 - ...we watch Izturis fail at leadoff hitting for another couple of years.

Can I borrow your bananas?

2005-07-14 12:25:01
87.   JeffinTokyo
DePo would have to be overwhelmed to trade Izturis. Too many fan favorites have been dispatched in the past year, so it would be hard to get away with unless we got a superstar back in return.
2005-07-14 12:28:34
88.   Bob Timmermann
And Buster Olney has declared Izturis to be the one irreplaceable played on the Dodgers.
Since Buster has spoken, I must obey.
2005-07-14 12:29:22
89.   Sam DC
That All-Star break felt like it lasted two weeks. (Oh wait, that was just the game . . . )

Cristian Guzman just ground into an inning ending DP with 2 on in Milwaukee. He's 0-2 and batting .199. And people in DC are worried about the Preston Wilson trade?

That trade has not been well received in DC, by the way, although today's home run will earn Wilson some grace. To me, getting Wilson without giving up any currently contributing pieces of the ML team strikes as a reasonable (though no huge upside) move, especially since the team is very much in a "this could be our year" mode. Day may be a great pitcher for someone someday, but he had chances with the Nationals and did not do well. Folks here who are blasting the deal are very quick to see the potentil upside being given away, but slow to recognize the million ways a pitching prospect/rookie might bust.

2005-07-14 12:30:04
90.   Steve
Izturis is liked by all the wrong people. Olney, Plaschke...

Which means, of course, that Izturis for Buster Olney might not even be a bad trade.

2005-07-14 12:31:12
91.   Sam DC
And by "ground" in #89, I was simply trying to convey what a hardworking scrapper Guzman is . . .
2005-07-14 12:31:48
92.   dzzrtRatt
Re #80

I guess that puts us way back in "Denial."

Kubler-Ross was probably a Cub fan. I think you can be in both Denial and Acceptance. My optimistic scenario is based on a few variables, which could each wash out. It's clearly labeled "optimistic scenario." It's not probable nor likely. But it is within the reasonable realm of possibility.

I don't disagree with Fearing Blue that my revamped/recovered version of the Dodgers isn't as good as the Cardinals, but to play .600 we don't need to be as good, since most of our games are played against a weaker division than the NL Central. (Chisox I still wonder about. They play a lot of games against KC and Detroit, plus Cleveland started the season horribly, and the Twins aren't what they were. Would you trade the Chisox starting pitching for ours? Dustin Hermanson is their closer! Their third baseman is Joe Crede. There's been a spot of luck that team has been riding.)

2005-07-14 12:36:03
93.   Bob Timmermann
I think it's pretty unlikely that the White Sox won't make the playoffs. They would have to collapse pretty hard to fall out of it. Their rotation is pretty solid especially because it doesn't have a huge hole in it. The quality drops off after Buerhle. I think Garland will decline sharply.

Their series against Cleveland starting today will be telling.

As for Washington, don't many people in DC think that the team has been very, very fortunate?

2005-07-14 12:37:02
94.   FirstMohican
Izturis must have alot of productive outs.
2005-07-14 12:38:12
95.   Steve
If they win with Preston Wilson, that will make them even more fortunate.
2005-07-14 12:38:32
96.   Colorado Blue
88, 90 - Funny, yet that sure makes DePo's chances of winning a popularity contest in L.A. much more difficult. For the sheer fact that any one has brass ones big enough to say Izzy is irreplaceable I think all the more reason to trade him...
2005-07-14 12:40:41
97.   Steve
Yes, we have no bananas today!
2005-07-14 12:40:57
98.   regfairfield
I like how Washington has done absolutely nothing right, except get Jose Guillen, have had Brad Wilkerson be a pile of suck the entire first half, and have first place to show for it due to massive luck and Chad Cordero.

Of course, if Jim Bowden is allowed to make any more moves, I'm sure the team will be dismantaled in no time.

2005-07-14 12:51:21
99.   Sam DC
"People" in DC are not necessarily of one mind, I'd say. For a lot of folks, it's obvious: Frank Robinson was one of the greatest players of all time and now he's just motivating the snot of these guys. It's a heart and chemistry lovefest, and "this team just doesn't like to lose."

For, um, others, the team has (i) gotten a lot of breaks in close games (ii) had very good timing of folks getting hot sort of one after another rather than all at once, so that their modest production has been spread out over a lot of games, and (iii) has had tons of great starting pitching, with John Patterson and Esteban Loaiza in particular exceeding rational expectations.

2005-07-14 12:56:03
100.   Steve
If they can get there, I'm rooting for the Nats. Cards? Blah. Pads? Obviously not. Braves? Icky. Icky. Icky.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2005-07-14 12:58:21
101.   regfairfield
I probably would too, I just really dislike a team winning despite extreme GM stupidity.
2005-07-14 12:58:24
102.   Fearing Blue
Here's another point in favor of starting Hee Seop Choi:

Choi's stats as a 1B: .250/.330/.490 (.820 OPS) with 13 HRs, 22 BBs, and 42 Ks in 200 ABs.
Choi's stats as a PH: .063/.167/.063 (.229 OPS) with 0 HRs, 0 BBs, and 9 Ks in 16 ABs.

2005-07-14 12:59:36
103.   Bob Timmermann
I just can't root for the Nats. I despise Frank Robinson and I despise Jim Bowden.

I'd really rather see the Braves win the NL East, which I think they will end up doing.

2005-07-14 13:01:27
104.   Jon Weisman
Luke Hochevar is in a live chat on Baseball America right now:

Gonzalo from Riverside, California asks:
How do you feel about being drafted by the Dodgers and do you think you will measure up to the other highly touted pitching prospects in the Dodgers farm system? They also compare you to Kevin Brown do you think thats a fair comparison and do you see youreself as a power or finesse type of pitcher? Thanks for the time and hope to see you in Dodger Blue.

A: Luke Hochevar: I'm ecstatic to be drafted to an organization of that caliber. I'm sure I'll work really hard to measure up. I'm a power pitcher that has similar pitches to Kevin Brown. I look foward to seeing you in the stands.

2005-07-14 13:02:42
105.   Fearing Blue
Overall, with the Saenz / Choi platoon, first base has been our second most productive position according to OPS. Here is the overall list:

#1 CF: 0.303 / 0.38 / 0.547 (0.927 OPS)
#2 1B: 0.28 / 0.358 / 0.525 (0.883 OPS)
#3 2B: 0.302 / 0.373 / 0.5 (0.873 OPS)
#4 RF: 0.233 / 0.345 / 0.394 (0.739 OPS)
#5 3B: 0.258 / 0.34 / 0.366 (0.706 OPS)
#6 SS: 0.293 / 0.342 / 0.351 (0.693 OPS)
#7 C: 0.241 / 0.302 / 0.367 (0.669 OPS)
#8 LF: 0.232 / 0.287 / 0.367 (0.654 OPS)
#9 PH: 0.244 / 0.303 / 0.321 (0.624 OPS)
#10 DH: 0.242 / 0.306 / 0.303 (0.609 OPS)
#11 P: 0.159 / 0.18 / 0.197 (0.378 OPS)

2005-07-14 13:05:25
106.   Fearing Blue
#105: Of course, if you read the newspapers, you would be lead to believe first base is our biggest hole.
2005-07-14 13:09:50
107.   dzzrtRatt

Bob I agree. Chisox will be in the playoffs and probably win their division. I was only quarrelling with FB putting them on the same level with St. Louis as far as quality goes. I'm no Ryne Sandberg, but my 'power rankings' would be: 1. Boston 2. St. Louis 3. Anaheim of LA 4. Chisox 5. Atlanta 6. Yankees 7. Astros (now) 8. Nats 9. A's (now) 10. Twinkies.

2005-07-14 13:10:41
108.   Marty
And left field is really the black hole in the lineup.
2005-07-14 13:11:06
109.   Fearing Blue
#107: I don't have any problem with those rankings, but I have a tough time believe that adding one bat will make us as good as any of your top 4.
2005-07-14 13:11:56
110.   Fearing Blue
#108: Yeah. Werth is really hurting the team. Probably more than Izturis considering the expectations both for him and the position.
2005-07-14 13:12:20
111.   Jim Hitchcock
65 - Unlike Steve, Me Olde Nemesis(tm), I found Rob's post on 6-4-2 quite pertinent :)
2005-07-14 13:16:03
112.   the OZ
104 -

It's cool to get some insight from an unsigned player represented by Scott Boras on his own ability. Especially so since he's basically saying, "I like the Dodgers. I hope they sign me for $5M because I'm as good as Kevin Brown was at his peak."

2005-07-14 13:21:16
113.   dzzrtRatt
#109. I agree. But luckily we don't have to play in AL East, NL Central, or the AL West. But I think one bat PLUS getting Bradley, Izturis and Valentin back at full strength, PLUS fielding a hitter-friendly infield of Kent-Perez-Izturis and a three-way platoon at 3B puts us on a par with the White Sox on down, so long as we still get to play a lot of games against Colorado, SF and Arizona.

Even then, we only catch San Diego on their way down. They're in control of the race.

In my scenario, may Choi forgive me, Choi rides the pine. If Choi's getting a lot of playing time at first base, that means we've given up and are trying to get him the on the job training he still needs. I love the guy, but he's been a black hole in the lineup almost all season.

2005-07-14 13:25:55
114.   Xeifrank
Please let me take this time to state the obvious. The Dodgers need to win three out of four games against the Giants in this series. We have alot of ground to make up on the Padres and must first take baby steps. Taking a series from the Giants would be baby steps. The way I see it, after the Giants series, the next 4 out of 5 and 8 out of 10 series' will be difficult. We need to beat up on the teams behind us and uh we also need to beat up on the teams ahead of us. I guess what I'm trying to say is that we just need to start winning, because my stage is rationalizing. End of ramble.
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 13:26:47
115.   Jon Weisman
103 - the black hole has the third-highest OPS vs. righties of currently ambulatory Dodgers this season.

.918 Kent
.810 Ledee
.787 Choi
.771 Perez
.758 Saenz
.723 Robles
.712 Edwards
.707 Werth
.643 Repko
.638 Phillips
.624 Izturis
.524 Grabowski

2005-07-14 13:27:22
116.   Jon Weisman
Sorry - 115 was in response to 113, not 103.
2005-07-14 13:29:52
117.   fanerman
#103, 115
I agree with 115.

If there were no trades to be done, I'd do something like an infield of Choi, Kent, Izzy/Robles, Valentin/Saenz and an outfield of Bradley (whenever he comes back), Ledee, and Perez/Werth.

If Tracy wants to win, he needs to get rid of the arm angle crap and put the best players on the field.

2005-07-14 13:30:38
118.   fanerman
Same correction for 117 that was on 116...
2005-07-14 13:31:01
119.   Xeifrank
I wonder which Jason Schmidt shows up tonight for the Giants. Chances are he's gonna look good in his debut against the 51s. :)
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 13:31:39
120.   Marty
69. I read the Jackson article and he contradicts himself pretty badly on Perez. In one part he pans him for no power and bad defense:

and at third base, where Jose Valentin was hitting just .194 before going down two months ago with a knee injury and where Antonio Perez has hit for average but shown little pop and is shaky defensively.

Then later on he praises him for the same things:

Perez, a converted second baseman, has provided some pop (.319, three HRs in 49 games) and has been superb defensively

Which is it? Plus he doesn't address the problems in left field and says the biggest needs are first and third. I found the whole article strange, especially since Jackson is not a bad beat writer.

2005-07-14 13:33:58
121.   Jon Weisman
"I found the whole article strange, especially since Jackson is not a bad beat writer."

Me too. Bullpen got a B while first base, which had about 20 HR, got a D, right?

2005-07-14 13:34:32
122.   Spageticus
Sorry gents, been absent a spell. Who is being referred to as JtD? I'm just a bit slow.
2005-07-14 13:35:26
123.   fanerman
Our Savior, His Holy Shortstop-ness, Joel The Destroyer (Guzman)
2005-07-14 13:35:42
124.   Xeifrank
122. Joel The Destroyer = JTD = Joel Guzman, correct me if I'm wrong. Lots of new acronyms floating around these days. Don't you just hate acronyms!
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 13:36:38
125.   Spageticus
Nice. Thanks for the update. i;m now Dodger Thoughts 2.1 compliant.
2005-07-14 13:44:58
126.   Xeifrank
125. How to correctly pronounce your name?
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 13:45:17
127.   Sam DC
Going to see the Dodgers in Philly one week from today. I really can't imagine what it's going to be like when my wife starts asking who the different players are.

Amtrak wants $60 plus bucks round trip DC to Philly for each person (including a 4 year old). That seems grotesquely expensive to me. But then, I suppose, it's just not. Or is it?

2005-07-14 13:50:17
128.   Jim Hitchcock
126 - That should be correct. Unlessit follows the Tony Curtis (yondah lies the castle of my fathuh) method of pronounciation...
2005-07-14 13:52:11
129.   Xeifrank
125. Spa-get-i-cus
So you got a spa and it made you cuss? Please explain yourself. :)
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 13:53:44
130.   Jim Hitchcock
Must be the money train, Sam...last year I got a qoute of $168(sleeper was $600 +) for L.A. to Ohio. Scenery through the Rockies was free.
2005-07-14 13:54:35
131.   Steve
111 -- That was not me! I was framed!
2005-07-14 13:54:38
132.   Jim Hitchcock
2005-07-14 13:55:20
133.   Xeifrank
Looks like Michelle Wie, Tiger Woods and Lance Armstrong breezed today. Not a bad day for American atheletes. Of course MW is playing against other Americans, but still she is quite a story.
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 13:55:38
134.   Jon Weisman
127 - Twelve years ago, I did the DC to Philly drive - wasn't that bad as I remember. Maybe renting a car would be cheaper.

Saw the game in Veteran's Stadium that night after nearly passing out from the heatidity, during a day of sightseeing and reading Portnoy's Complaint in the park. The next day, I drove from Philadelphia to Montreal and was at Olympic Stadium that night.

2005-07-14 13:55:44
135.   Jim Hitchcock
131 - Sorry! Must have been Ross... :)
2005-07-14 13:56:43
136.   Xeifrank
132. Don't worry Bob isn't here at the moment. :)
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 13:57:59
137.   Sam DC
heatidity -- pretty good.

Philly to Montreal, that's a drive.

Would drive ourselves (and probably will, do have a lovely corolla), but the 4 month old does lung exercises on long drives (or short drives, or drives) and the 4 year old just likes trains.

2005-07-14 13:58:46
138.   Jim Hitchcock
127 - Am glad you stopped reading Portnoy's Complaint before you went blind :)
2005-07-14 13:59:02
139.   Steve
120 -- Nice fisking, couldn't have done it better myself. I just gave up when he gave JD Drew a D. If the beat writers aren't going to pay attention, why should I?
2005-07-14 13:59:09
140.   Jim Hitchcock
134, rather.
2005-07-14 13:59:27
141.   Marty
134. The one time I was in Philly, I drove to DC for the weekend. It was a pleasant drive. Made a couple-hour stop in Baltimore too. Alas, I saw no games...
2005-07-14 14:02:12
142.   Steve




2005-07-14 14:02:36
143.   Xeifrank
137. Lung excercises! haha!! I can feel your pain, oh boy can I. At four months we had what seemed like a 24 hour lung excerciser. Colic will do that to you.
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 14:04:42
144.   dzzrtRatt
#115 Jon, those numbers are hard to argue with. But I'll channel Joe Morgan for a moment and say that after watching this team day after day, it just doesn't seem like Choi does enough to help the team win very often. It's great how often he walks, but Kent and A. Perez, to name two, are "catalysts" (a statistically imprecise term, I grant you) for the offense, whereas Choi seems only to rise to the occasion, occasionally.

Plus, at best, you're suggesting a Choi platoon role. We already need a platoon at third, it's probably asking too much to have a fulltime platoon at first, too.

2005-07-14 14:06:13
145.   natepurcell
when izzys contract runs out, JtD will be 23 or so, and full seasoned to then, take over and become our 6'6 version of miguel tejada.
2005-07-14 14:07:33
146.   fanerman
Unless the banana-thing happens.
2005-07-14 14:07:39
147.   Steve
it just doesn't seem like Choi does enough to help the team win very often

He doesn't play very often, and even when he has the last month, he's been playing with the Grabowskis and Repkos and Edwardses. Choi remains an enigma, like everything else.

2005-07-14 14:07:55
148.   natepurcell
2005-07-14 14:08:05
149.   Vishal
hey, speaking of road trips, i have to drive from california to upstate NY in a few weeks. any suggestions re: routes to take, places to see along the way, etc...? i wouldn't mind mixing in some natural scenery/camping and hiking with some cities along the way. i'm looking to take about 12 days or so. i'm considering either the middle route through colorado/tennessee/DC and then north, or maybe even going a little out of my way and seeing canada(vancouver/banff/calgary/winnipeg/toronto). i'm open to suggestions though. i'm kinda leaning against the southwest because it will be REALLY hot in august, and i've already seen it a couple of times. i've also been along I-90 but it wasn't bad.
2005-07-14 14:08:26
150.   scareduck
116: Must. Get. Threaded comments. Get busy, Ken.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2005-07-14 14:09:30
151.   natepurcell
For what its worth, guzman has the ability to stay at SS, he just needs to stay focus and be consistent all the time.
2005-07-14 14:10:59
152.   Steve
Choi remains an enigma, like everything else.

Except, of course, for the status of His Holy Avenger of Evil, Joel the Destroyer, who shall slay his enemies and pretenders to the throne, and take his shortstoppity goodness straight to Cooperstown, where Joe Morgan will declaim "WHERE HAVE ALL THE REAL SHORTSTOPS GONE!" and rant for hours about how "those bastards" are keeping Davey Concepcion out.

2005-07-14 14:13:21
153.   scareduck
149: Vishal: take the I-15 through Utah and see Bryce Canyon/Zion National Park. You will not forget it; the Great American West in all its glory. Also: the drive through Colorado up to Grand Forks on the I-70 is amazing: you're essentially on an overpass only tens of feet over the whitewater Colorado River. The pass over the Great Divide as you go through Vail is also impressive. Gorgeous.
2005-07-14 14:13:51
154.   Fearing Blue
Bob, where did you find the page that lets you double splits on player statistics? I'd like to see what Choi is batting against RHP in a starting role.
2005-07-14 14:14:09
155.   fanerman
Is "Avenger of Evil" a good thing? Don't you usually, I don't know, avenge your brother's death by killing his murderers or something?
2005-07-14 14:16:10
156.   Jon Weisman
149 - South Dakota is the most underrated state in the country. Go to Colorado, make a left and head for Mt. Rushmore, the Badlands, Wall Drug and the Mitchell Corn Palace - an entire civic center wallpapered inside and out in corn!

150 - I have to say, I really don't see the problem with the scrolling. It's so easy to skim.

2005-07-14 14:18:11
157.   fanerman
The Kwame deal happened. I'm kind of excited. Still a little skeptical, but the news I've found has been encouraging. Last year was rough because he had the broken whatever it was and had Jamison sort of taking his place, but his first 3 seasons he progressed like most rookies (PER went up by 5.5). I hope his attitude is okay. But from what I've heard (and you've shown me), I think the change of scenery is all he needs. He probably won't be another Jermaine O'neal, but he won't be an Olowakandi either. I REALLY hope this works out.
2005-07-14 14:21:27
158.   Xeifrank
158. Still looking for a few more people to join the Over/Under challenge. Guess how many innings the Dodger starter will pitch each night, and go up against other DT members.
Email me if interested. vr, Xei
2005-07-14 14:21:45
159.   Mark
The Emmy nominees suck. Battlestar Galactica, regardless of whether you like sci-fi or not, is easily the best show on TV. Entourage comes in at a close second, with Jeremy Piven head and shoulders above every other acting performance, period.

Nobody Loves Raymond!

2005-07-14 14:23:51
160.   Fearing Blue
#154: Ok. I'm just going to assume all of his PH ABs came against RHP, which I know isn't completely true, but it's close.

With that assumption, Choi's batting line as a starting 1B against RHP would be the following:

Choi 1B vs. RHP: .257/.343/.503 (.846 OPS)

2005-07-14 14:24:39
161.   natepurcell
i think kwame will work out.

it was a trade that we needed though. we need the size in the frontcourt desparately. I seriously think next year kwames going to explode foe 15 and 9.

look at the size up front:
mihm 7'0- 25yrs old
bynum 7'0- 17yrs old
brown 7'0- 23 yrs old
turiaf 6'10- 22 yrs old
odom 6'10- 25 yrs old

i think mitch gets it. you need young athletic depth in the front court and hes trying to do that.

2005-07-14 14:26:56
162.   Fearing Blue
#144: Why is it asking too much to have more than one full-time platoon? In a situation where we're desparately hurting for offense, it seems like you'd want to gain every advantage possible.
2005-07-14 14:27:11
163.   Vishal
hehe, thanks jon and rob. like i said, i did get to do i-90. i camped at the badlands, saw the corn palace(closed for renovation) and mt. rushmore, and how could anybody NOT stop at wall drug?

actually when i went there, the store was staffed almost exclusively by young ladies from various locales in eastern europe. i tried to ask one girl what it was that could possibly bring all of them to the middle of nowhere, south dakota... some sort of crazy worker exchange program? a citizenship scam? something more sinister? she stonewalled though, so one can only imagine.

and rob, i agree that zion & bryce canyon are amazing. i went hiking there on spring break a few years ago. zion is second only to yosemite in beauty, i think. i was thinking if i went via I-15 i would also check out arches and rocky mountain NP this time. i've never been to colorado.

2005-07-14 14:29:19
164.   dzzrtRatt
#160. How does Choi look against Antonio Perez?
2005-07-14 14:32:32
165.   Jon Weisman
Vishal, have you done Monument Valley? Totally cool.
2005-07-14 14:33:26
166.   Xeifrank
163. Best hike I ever did was hiking "the narrows" in Zion. Took a van to the beginning of the hike, the trail along the virgin river gradually became a narrow steep walled and very deep slot canyon. The trail and the river eventually became one and slushing through knee high water was quite interesting, especially with all the slippery bowling ball rocks in the river bed. Still, an incredibly amazing hike, just don't do it during monsoon season. It's not an easy hike, not many people have done it, but it's something you'll remember for a long time. Words (especially mine) can't describe it.
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 14:33:46
167.   Jim Hitchcock
163 - Rob makes a good route planner. You might want to make a short side trip through the Ouray Valley before you hit the Rockies.
2005-07-14 14:35:20
168.   dzzrtRatt

Maybe it doesn't. It seems like the downsides are players having a less firm understanding of their roles. It means "regulars" are put in the role of pinch hitters, which might not fit with their skills or makeup. Earlier this season, we talked about Tracy having lineups on certain days that would have Kent, Saenz or Choi at first, and either Saenz, Valentin or Nakamura/Perez at third. Maybe I just don't have confidence in Tracy to keep it all straight in his mind, nor to communicate it to his players so they understand their roles.

2005-07-14 14:35:27
169.   Jim Hitchcock
Oh, and for sure check out RMNP. Fall River Road rocks!
2005-07-14 14:35:52
170.   Sam DC
Has anyone ever driven I-8 San Diego to Phoenix? I had to move my mother-in-law in that road, just she and I, mid summer, in her collapsing chevette that couldn't break 60, and for respiratory reasons she couldn't have the air conditioning on. I don't know if it was my delerium, but it was the most incredible desert moonscape I have ever seen. Unbelievably beautiful.
2005-07-14 14:40:18
171.   Colorado Blue
If you end up taking I-70 then I would highly suggest getting off at Frisco, CO and take the 10 mile or so side drive to Breckenridge. The peaks there are absolutely gorgeous in the summer. Take a meal at the Breckenridge Brewery. Also, there is tons of hiking within a small radius.
2005-07-14 14:41:56
172.   Xeifrank
168. It's all about putting the best lineup out on the field. The things you mentioned are poor metrics. How can one measure a player having a less firm understanding of their role. When on the otherhand you have statistics that show you that a platoon gives you a higher OPS at that position than playing one or the other full time. Perhaps you can channel Joe Morgan again for us. :)
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 14:44:22
173.   Jim Hitchcock
Vishal, when I did the L.A. to Colorado drive, I took 1-40 (warning, pothole alley to Cortez, and then cut up through the previously mentioned Ouray Valley to 1-70. You even get some of the desert moonscape Sam talks about. Pretty damn spiritual if you have any indian blood :)
2005-07-14 14:45:23
174.   Jim Hitchcock
Whoops, should have said Native American blood. Sorry, Vishal, that was unintentional.
2005-07-14 14:53:15
175.   dzzrtRatt
#172...ah, there you go again, listening to a computer!

How's that?

I guess I went out on a limb where the branch was a little flimsy because I think Kent playing first helps the team tangibly and intangibly. I'm surprised, frankly, that Choi's OPS is still as high as Jon reported. What did he do to get it that high? Since the Minnesota series, it seems like Choi has taken a massive collar.

Maybe Choi is becoming the next Eric Karros, the stealth slugger. Jesus H. Choi I hope not.

2005-07-14 14:55:21
176.   Fearing Blue
#164: Perez has a .311/.378/.393 (.771 OPS) against RHP, which is lower than Choi's. Additionally, Perez has not been good defensively at 2B. Last, Perez has a .352 BABIP against RHP and Choi has a .252 BABIP against RHP. That difference is primarily luck, which is why Perez isn't nearly as good as his numbers suggest.
2005-07-14 14:56:27
177.   Spageticus
129- "Spageticus" doesn't have anything to do with Spartacus, although that is a fine movie. When I was 16 my friends and I were trying to name our band. We sat down to a plate of spaghetti, and while we ate someone mentioned etiquette. Someone (using obiously more than 10 percent of their brain) offered up 'Spaghetti-Etiquette' or Spageticus as a band name. It failed. Coincidentally, I had just gotten AOL 2.0 and couldn't come up with anything cleverer. Still looking.

And yes, the pronunciation is correct.

Um, Go Dodgers!

2005-07-14 14:56:54
178.   Fearing Blue
#175: I disagree with your assessment of Kent at first base helping the team. Statistically, it worsens the infield defense and decreases the overall offensive output.
2005-07-14 14:57:10
179.   Jim Hitchcock
Maybe Choi is becoming the next Eric Karros, the stealth slugger.

If you toss in Brock and Stubbs (weren't they a bluegrass band?), you'll see it's a long and distinguished line :)

2005-07-14 15:01:02
180.   Xeifrank
The Grabowski Flight of the Over/Under Challenge needs to send in their Brad Penny IP guesses. I am going with 7 IPs.
Grabowski Flight members are:
Colorado Blue vs Howard
CT Bum vs Xeifrank
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 15:01:03
181.   Steve
If Kent plays first, who's going to play third? I Don't Know?
2005-07-14 15:02:08
182.   Bob Timmermann has Choi's performance as a first baseman (either starting or having come in later and not being a pinch hitter) against RHP at .247/.315/.474

Derek Lee is slugging .737 against RHP, but Tony Clark is slightly higher in far fewer ABs at .750.

If you limit it to Choi's starts at home against RHP, he is at 267/319/562

Choi is 23 for 108 on the road when he starts against RHP.

2005-07-14 15:02:10
183.   Xeifrank
181. Email me if you'd like to join. We can open up another four member flight. Each flight is named after a famous current Dodger player who has never been in my kitchen.
vr, Xei
2005-07-14 15:02:14
184.   Jim Hitchcock
181 - Who's on the DL.
2005-07-14 15:03:25
185.   Langhorne
The problem with platoons is that they can weaken your bench. The Choi/Saenz platoon works well but neither player has been particularly valuable off the bench. Saenz is okay if you need a guy in the late innings who can knock one out. But other than that he's not much help. If he gets on you have to run for him, which further taxes the bench, and he's not really a defensive specialist. My point is that it's a distinct advantage to have versatile players on the bench whether or not they are part of a platoon.
2005-07-14 15:04:18
186.   Colorado Blue
180 - Over. Penny goes 7 1/3.
2005-07-14 15:07:10
187.   Steve
Any reason to play Choi when they are 8 games over 500 go about quadruple when they are 8 games down and out of it.
2005-07-14 15:10:53
188.   Colorado Blue
187 - Ok. I've stayed out of the whole Choi derby thus far, but I have to agree with Steve. Given the situation play him everyday and then decide at the end of the year if he's got what it takes. Save Saenz for off the bench as much as possible.
2005-07-14 15:11:26
189.   Langhorne
How long until baseball stat sites include arm angles in their splits? This terrible oversight must be corrected.
2005-07-14 15:11:55
190.   Jon Weisman
New game thread post coming above - time to move along. It's like we're going from fairway to green.
2005-07-14 15:16:13
191.   Fearing Blue
#182: How did you find those numbers? has Choi's overall numbers at .250/.330/.490 when he's at first base, so I'd be surprised if they were lower against RHP.
2005-07-14 15:26:32
192.   Bob Timmermann
You just have to keep picking all the different permutations at the site. It's a little weird. They may have a different source than ESPN and may have different definitions of when to count certain stats.
2005-07-14 15:52:15
193.   db1022
#164 - I'm not sure Choi has ever faced Perez.
2005-07-14 15:54:15
194.   Vishal
maybe i can spend a little extra time wandering through that area. i haven't seen monument valley or ouray! thanks for the suggestions, guys.

ps. indian blood, indeed. unintentional humor is the best :)

2005-07-14 21:31:00
195.   Rich Lederer
"Please, don't start watching televised poker. If I read one more article about how poker is sweeping the nation, I'm gonna fold."

Is Jon any good or what?

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.