Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
While the desire to drop Cesar Izturis from the leadoff spot in the Dodger lineup dates back to the Hahn administration, I don't understand the people who think Oscar Robles is clearly superior. The difference between Izturis and Robles is marginal, and I have to think that those who favor Robles so passionately are embracing a kind of stealth "heart and soul" argument that often goes unrecognized - namely, the grass is always greener.
This is not an issue I am particularly passionate about - to begin with, it's more important to me that Antonio Perez and Hee Seop Choi see an increase in playing time. However, to fit Perez into the lineup, either Robles or Izturis has to sit, so that's how the debate becomes relevant. And I just worry that people are conflating two issues: Just because Izturis isn't qualified to be the Dodgers' leadoff hitter doesn't mean he should be benched.
Right now, Robles is ahead of Izturis in EQA, .248 to .227, thanks mainly to his plate discipline - in a battle of lightweights, Izturis has a bit more power. But Robles remains a player with a bit less range on defense. Robles also hasn't been around long enough for most of the league to adjust to him, the way opposing teams have for Izturis this season.
Recently, Robles has been the better player, and if you're talking about trading Izturis for value, or allowing Izturis to heal what some believe to be a beat-up body, Robles could certainly serve as caretaker for the position while earning a fraction of Izturis' salary. But the evidence that Robles will be the better player going forward is sketchy at best. Robles is 29; Izturis is still only 25.
With both guys active, it's reasonable that the player who is both younger and more experienced, Izturis, should continue to start most games. The world may have overrated Little Cesar during his 2005 All-Star campaign, but let's not overcorrect.
Izturis is a very good defender, still only 25 and could easily become a good enough hitter to bat .285 for the rest of his career. Would I take that? In a heartbeat. But that would probably translate to a .315 OBP with Izzy and I would like something better than that in the leadoff spot.
Perez and Choi have to see more playing time. It is maddening how Tracy is the only guy who does not see that. I'm glad even the LA Times are on that bandwagon.
He is among the best defensive SS in the game, and offensively, he has to be top 5 in the NL (I haven't looked it up, so feel free to prove me wrong). It's not his fault that Tracy has him chained to the leadoff spot. Going back to the brick wall analogy, Izzy, like Kent, is chained to the bus that is being driven into a brick wall.
And my argument should be more credible because it is not easy to incorporate "chained" twice into that paragraph.
Tracy still has his media supporters. Did anyone notice that, according to the Times, Perez almost blew the throw to the plate to get Marlon Anderson? He "double-pumped," according to the Times. It was only because Navarro did such a good job blocking the plate that the run was prevented, it was said.
To defend Tracy, his advocates have to denigrate players Tracy doesn't like. Sad. You almost get the feeling Tracy seeks revenge against bench players who show him up by performing well on days they start.
Either way, the SS should bat 8th. If Izturis batted 8th, we'd complain a lot less about him.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=35851
Oscar-ss
AP-3b
Kent-2b
Bradley-cf
Choi-1b
Werth-lf
Ledee/cruz-rf
Navarro-c
pitcher
I'd be fine with Izturis if he was slotted 8th, and that Perez or Choi was starting over Robles.
And while we may pine for the extra .50 OBP, it should also be noted that Robles has 184 ABs this year while Cesar has 400+.
Robles might be better equipped to continue getting on base more frequently than Izzy, but 184 ABs is a pretty small sample size.
Is it an exaggeration Steve to say that you always speak in hyperbole or with a sense of dogmatism that borders on the hysterical?
Of course, sometimes it's hysterically funny. But stating that the Dodgers organization is doomed to failure just seems to be a statement to trumpet your own sense of superior intelligence as compared to the rest of us in Dodgerland.
Based on Baseball Prospectus offensive and defensive statistics, our optimal infield would be as follows. The format is Pos: Player: MLVr (Marginal Lineup Value Rate) + (RATE2 - 100)/100 = Run Comparison Value.
C: Dioner Navarro: .104 + -.160 = -.054
1B: Olmedo Saenz: .227 + -.170 = .057
2B: Jeff Kent: .269 + -.110 = .159
SS: Oscar Robles: .001 + .000 = .001
3B: Antonio Perez: .186 + -.080 = .106
Total: .269
But, since Saenz can't play everyday, the second best lineup is:
C: Dioner Navarro: .104 + -.160 = -.054
1B: Hee Seop Choi: .066 + -.050 = .016
2B: Jeff Kent: .269 + -.110 = .159
SS: Oscar Robles: .001 + .000 = .001
3B: Antonio Perez: .186 + -.080 = .106
Total: .228
The new Jim Tracy standard has the following values:
C: Dioner Navarro: .104 + -.160 = -.054
1B: Jason Phillips: -.108 + -.130 = -.238
2B: Jeff Kent: .269 + -.110 = .159
SS: Cesar Izturis: -.129 + .040 = -.089
3B: Oscar Robles: .001 + -.070 = -.069
Total: -.291
The often suggested Kent at 1B arrangement is as follows:
C: Dioner Navarro: .104 + -.160 = -.054
1B: Jeff Kent: .269 + -.130 = .139
2B: Antonio Perez: .186 + -.200 = -.013
SS: Cesar Izturis: -.129 + .040 = -.089
3B: Oscar Robles: .001 + -.070 = -.069
Total: -.086
Even though infield defensive statistics are rough measures, the overall lineup values fit pretty well with my subjective assessment. Thus, I would say that Jim Tracy's preferred lineup is costing the team somewhere between .519 (Hee Seop Choi) to .559 (Olmedo Saenz) runs / game.
I shall retreat back to my shell because I know that continuing this will lead only to me getting indigestion.
Phillips starting over Choi or Saenz or Perez - that's different.
Given this, and that Valentin clearly is not an answer, there doesn't appear to be a lot of options not including Robles and Izzy in the same lineup. So working around this, we should fit AP in somehow, and move Kent over, unless you are accepting of Phillips as a viable option, which I am not willing to do.
Thanks. I have a big bottle at home. I just don't have any at work, so I'll try to ignore certain comments.
Still, the difference between Robles over Izturis is marginal compared to the difference between Choi/Saenz over Phillips and Perez over Robles, as has been said.
The little known seventh secret of life by Satchel Paige is to "stay away from blog commenters that may angry up the blood."
Robles is useful because he can get on base. We can also get rid of him in the short term when Guzman comes up. (FB talks up the asian shortstop, but he probably doesn't look like a ballplayer, and would not play).
However, Robles seems to be a suitable replacement (if not an upgrade in certain areas), is a tenth of the cost, and would allow Izturis to be traded for other further assets.
But, again, I don't mind choosing one over the other, it's just when they are both the answer is when it gets dicey.
Then think about Jimmy Rollins' contract. If you say, "Well, Cesar Izturis is no Jimmy Rollins," then you've gotten the point.
Seriously, I agree with 2nd paragraph of 68. I imagine we could get much more in return for Izzy than what he means to the Dodgers batting leadoff. Robles is more than suitable as a replacement; small sample size or not.
68 - My original post up top pre-responds to all of your points.
I disagree...I have young kids. I will take the food poisoning over the flu that spreads itself throughout my family.
I am more upset at Tracy for stubbornly placing Izturis and Robles in the first two batting slots day-in and day-out than I am about his completely ridiculous handling of the 1st base situation. Tracy must have a very selective memory. He seems to only remember the Izturis of the first two months of this season, rather than the Izturis of everything in his career but the first two months.
In the long run, I would still rather see Izturis at SS rather than Robles. His defense is impressive and he is still very young and could improve his batting ability. I wouldn't mind if Izturis was traded this off-season and Robles took over for a short time, but sometimes you should beware of what you wish for. It's entirely possible that Guzman gets moved elsewhere in the infield before he gets to the Majors, and then where do you go?
Finally, for those convinced we should take Robles over Izturis because of the money situation. Why should we care? Sure Robles is cheap, but Izturis makes a whopping 2 million a year. For the Dodgers, who's payroll should easily reach 100 million dollars, it should hardly be a concern if the starting shortstop makes 2 million a year instead of half a million.
Of course, the GM and front office need to evaluate those things but unless I'm a Kansas City Royals fan, I don't really care if my shortstop makes 500K or 2 million dollars.
1) Quite simply he should not be the leadoff hitter.
2) Robles is adequate as a replacement player batting 1st or 8th.
3) Given the talent pushing up from AA, why not trade Izzy for other needs? 25 or not, he's only going to get more expensive.
4) And yes, there is tangible disdain for JT's decision making process, primarily because we don't understand it.
83 - not terrible, just average to slightly below average
79 - Giant country? watch your back...
That explains the decline in breakins to my apartment.
I grew up here, so I learned that lesson long ago.
I have some associates who will still be popping in from time to time, Bob.
I think you're exaggerating the number of people accusing you of exaggeration.
(I'm not an English teacher anymore; should that be "lie" ahead?)
Robles sees more pitches than Izzy and is capable of working that into a walk, Izzy swings at everything and rarely walks. That's why Robles is better suited to bat leadoff. It's not that he is a much better hitter but he takes a much different approach to hitting than izzy does. His approach lends itself to getting robles more at bats and to leading off innings. Izzy's approach and lack of power is perfect to hit in front of the pitcher. at least that's how I think.
Didn't Steve say he was in Ontario now. MAybe he meant Ontario, Canada? Are powdered wigs in his future?
He's [Robles] the prototypical infielder I managed him in the winter of 1993 in Mexico. He's similar to a Juan Castro but he doesn't have the pop.
- Jim Tracy
Obviously impressed with Castro's 25 career home runs
7/3/05
1. Oscar Robles (SS)
2. Antonio Perez (3B)
3. Milton Bradley (CF)
4. Jeff Kent (2B)
5. Olmedo Saenz (1B) / Ricky Ledee (RF)
6. Jason Werth (LF) / Hee Seop Choi (1B)
7. Jose Cruz Jr. (RF) / Jose Cruz Jr. (LF)
8. Dioner Navarro (C)
Even though Cruz has looked bad so far (in 8 ABs), I'd start him for at least a couple weeks to see what we've got.
That lineup doesn't have nearly enough Jasons in it. Just a Jayson.
I'm wondering if Phillips confidence now is completely shot as a catcher. His defense is being judged solely by his throwing arm. Does anyone think that the other parts of his game at catcher are adequate?
I know that Tom Glavine was very complimentary of his game-calling skills this spring.
Thank you for pointing out my incorrect Jason usage :).
Phillips is 0 for 8 in his career against Smoltz with 3 Ks.
However, Choi is 2 for 3 with a walk. Both hits came last year when Choi was on the Marlins.
but has anyone considered perez at shortstop and a platoon of seanz and robles at 3b, with seanz mainly there, robles only platooning with him because of seanz so called fragile body.
i guess nobody considers this because of defensive purposes, but how much damage can defense do considering the big uprade in offense you get with perez and seanz over izturis and robles, and then obviously choi at 1b everyday.
perez ss
choi 1b
bradley of
kent 2b
ledee of
seanz 3b
werth of
navarro c
perez ss
choi 1b
bradley of
kent 2b
ledee of
werth of
robles or navarro
robles or navarro
then when drew returns
perez ss
choi 1b
drew of
kent 2b
bradley of
ledee/werth platoon of, or seanz here
seanz 3b or ledee/werth here
navarro c
perez ss
choi 1b
drew of
kent 2b
bradley of
ledee/werth platoon of
robles or navarro
robles or navarro
Phillips is 0 for 8, which means he's "due".
Choi is not going to hit .667 against a pitcher of Smoltz' caliber, so he'd probably take an 0-fer tonight. He sits.
117 - I don't think you can say the difference between last year and this year is entirely on the defense. If we didn't have the freak injuries and we played the right players, we'd be doing much better, but some years it's just like that.
See 2004 Dodgers W-L record and amount of errors.
my idea (lineup) is without considering tracy.
but i don't get what you meant when you said seanz can't play 3b, he's played there plenty of times.
are you just saying seanz isn't a good enough 3b to be playing there.
but one positive is that if by some chance we got healthy enough to somehow make up 6 games on the Padres, like what we have or not, we would have a bench with a lot of experienced players....and that might be a good thing?
then you have Lowe and Penny who are clutch post season pitchers, and who knows what might happen?
124 - How are you sure the defensive downgrade is major and the offensive upgrade is minor? There has been much talk that Izturis is not as good this year as he was last year on defense. He doesn't even look as good.
is the upgrade of offense in seanz at 3b perez at ss bigger than the downgrade in defense.
seanz and perez vs izturis and robles, does the upgrade in offense outweigh the downgrade in defense?
and remember robles gives seanz some days off for his so called fragile body.
And there is no "slight" offensive upgrade from Izturis to Perez. That is an avalanche of an offensive upgrade.
1B - Choi/Saenz platoon
2B - Kent
SS - Izturis/Robles
3B - Perez (until he shows he really can't handle it, because he's actually done okay so far)
As Steve said, Izturis and Robles can't be in the same line-up at the same time. Honestly, I don't care which is in the line-up. It's 1st and 3rd I'd rather see change. But that's just me.
We don't have to resort to that.
i'm only trying to find out if my idea is the best for the team, if seanz and perez over izturis and robles gives us enough of an offensive upgrade to outweigh the defensive downgrade.
but again,as long as tracy is manager, my idea will never happen.
Howard and Yakface - time to hit the reset button. No personal attacks.
Saenz can't play everyday anyway. He's best off in a platoon (ie, with Choi).
cause moving kent to 1b apparently kills any chance of both seanz and choi playing and it keeps robles and izturis both in the same lineup, so moving kent to 1b is not the solution.
phillips will continue to play at 1b and both izturis and robles will continue to play at ss and 3b.
aahh the life of a dodger fan while tracy is the manager, gotta love it, the team is crippled right away thanks to tracy, depodesta could get a few players that could make the team great, but tracy will find a way to cripple the team.
So we're back to the question: if it's Choi, Kent, Perez at 1b 2b 3b respectively, who should play SS? I think Robles, simply because he employs the Moneyball skill of wearing down pitchers, even at the expense of a little defense. But then that brings us to the fact that it won't happen because the manager doesn't seem to want to play the team in the manner it was built. It's maddening.
As for the question of which is more important - glovework or hitting - Bill James sure seems to think it's hitting. After all, at least half of defense is pitching. Glovework by the other 8 is of marginal importance, especially when you consider the marginal differences between our best at worst defensive players at each spot. I'd choose based on offense for every spot, unless someone was truly awful at a key position.
"the marginal differences between our best AND worst defensive players at each spot."
We don't have to sacrifice much defense (if any) to get better hitters into the line-up.
yoda
All these stats are from Jon's post:
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/229581.html
Defensively at 1st, Kent is better at Choi in zone rating, but Choi bests him in Rate2. Both are better than Saenz and Phillips.
Defensively at 2nd, Kent is better than Perez.
Defensively at 3rd, Perez equals Robles in Rate2 and has a HIGHER zone rating in more innings.
Choi has an EQA of .274. Perez is at .297. Saenz is at .298. Phillips has an EQA of .237.
Choi, Saenz, or Perez are better in the line-up than Phillips, offensively and defensively.
Saenz can't play every day.
If it came down to Kent/Choi or Perez/Kent (2B/1B), I'd go with Kent/Choi because there's no defensive downgrade and Choi has been unlikely while Perez has been somewhat lucky, probably balancing out their EQAs a bit. Plus Kent stays happy.
Of course, statistically, Perez warrants at least more time at 3B, and that would make everybody happy. Except Phillips and whoever gets benched out of Izturis and Robles.
BTW, unlikely = unlucky in 168.
I'm very surprised that AP has done this well this season. I expected him to hit .270 to .280 but never expected him to hit .330. Tracy is letting his offense go to waste this season.
Is it possible to rotate Izzy/Robles/Perez so that each gets about equal time?
If Valentin can get a start at 3rd, then surely Perez deserves start over Valentin.
While my first argument did go to dust (looked up 1992 and discovered they lead the league in errors. Curse you Jose Offerman)
However, the seasons that the Dodgers have made the playoffs in the last couple decades or so, the Dodgers rank in the league in errors. (Being first here is bad)
1988: 4th
1995: 1st
1996: 12th
1997: 16th
Errors have little to do with having a successful baseball team. In fact, in some cases more errors can be indicative of a stronger defense.
And, it's the fact that Choi's batting average might be likely to go up with repeated use that makes his combination of walks and power potentially even more valuable offensively than Perez.
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