Pitching well is the best revenge...for '96.

Wile E. Season -- that's great.

However, I refuse to participate in any discussion of any alleged pennant race, fearing that I'd only be setting myself up for disappointment. So instead, I'll present my list of Dodgers top 50 prospects, and concentrate on sunny days ahead.

Dodgers Top 50 Prospects
September 2005

Notes: Edwin Jackson has exhausted not only his pitching coach, but also his rookie eligibility, and is therefore no longer eligible for this list. I omitted Dioner Navarro because he will almost certainly do the same by season's end.

I based this list on a combination of all the information available to me, which includes scouting reports, stats, age, and personal observation where applicable. Comments please.

1. Chad Billingsley 07/29/84
2. Joel Guzman 11/24/84
3. Andy LaRoche 08/13/83
4. Russell Martin 02/15/83
5. Jonathan Broxton 06/16/84
6. Blake DeWitt 08/20/85
7. Scott Elbert 05/13/85
8. Luke Hochevar 09/15/83
9. Matt Kemp 9/23/84
10. Greg Miller 11/03/84
11. Chuck Tiffany 01/25/85
12. Hong-Chih Kuo 07/23/81
13. Delwyn Young 06/30/82
14. James Loney 05/07/84
15. Travis Denker 08/05/85
16. Willy Aybar 03/09/83
17. Julio Pimentel 12/14/85
18. Chin-Lung Hu 02/02/84
19. Justin Orenduff 05/27/83
20. Justin Ruggiano 04/12/82
21. Tony Abreu 11/13/84
22. Cory Dunlap 04/13/84
23. Blake Johnson 06/14/85
24. Ivan De Jesus 05/01/87
25. Josh Bell 11/13/86
26. Sergio Pedroza 02/23/84
27. Jumbo Diaz 02/27/84
28. Carlos Medero-Stullz 05/30/86
29. Mike Megrew 01/29/84
30. Juan Apodaca 07/15/86
31. Jesus Soto 09/07/86
32. Brent Leach 11/18/82
33. Josh Wall 01/21/87
34. Kenley Jansen 09/30/87
35. David Sutherland 05/02/85
36. Russell Mitchell 02/15/85
37. Derek Thompson 01/08/81
38. Anthony Raglani 04/06/83
39. Beltran Perez 10/21/81
40. Franquelis Osoria 09/12/81
41. Andrew Locke 02/28/83
42. Dan Batz 03/19/82
43. John Meloan 07/11/84
44. Trayvon Robinson 09/01/87
45. Juan Rivera 03/17/87
46. Scott Van Slyke 07/24/86
47. Jamie Hoffman 08/20/84
48. William Juarez 04/22/81
49. Javy Guerra 10/31/85
50. Wesley Wright 01/28/85

Also, I guess it goes without saying, but the above list assumes Boras caves.

What Colborn should say to them:

"Penny and Lowe are fighting for respect and recognition. Penny wants people to forget about his injury, and Lowe wants people to forget how awful he pitched until recently. These are two men who've won games in the World Series; they see themselves among the elite.

"Jeff Weaver, he's going into his free agent year, so he's pitching to raise his market value, to make us or someone else pay him upwards of $10 million for enough years to allow him to soon retire to the green, fragrant fields of Arcata.

"But you youngsters, D.J. and Edwin, you're pitching for your future jobs. You might want to read the minor league trades, fellas. You're being pushed, hard, by Chad Billingsly, Derek Thompson, Jon Broxton, Orenduff, Tiffany, Elbert. They want, desperately, what you've got in the palm of your hands, and they will come to Vero Beach next Spring with one goal in mind--to make us forget about you. But you've got the opportunity now to turn that around--to make us forget about them, for 2006 at least. Think about that."

Eric, the disappointment about 2005 set in for me long ago. Really, J.D. Drew's injury did it. I really do find it easy to talk about miracles without expecting them to happen.

If someone beat the Roadrunner, that'd be the first time, right? It should be clear that what I wrote about above isn't expected.

5 - I think they know all that. What they need is the kind of thing that Derek Lowe got with his move from one side of the rubber to another - a solution.

Not a challenge. They're all too aware of the challenge, I'm sure.

Colborn & Co. may need solutions for their own set of challenges. If I'm not mistaken, Jim Tracy is the only Dodger coach with a contract for 2006.

Looking at those birth years makes me feel old.

8 - I can't imagine any significant changes in the coaching staff if Tracy stays.

Hochevar was born 4 days after the R.J. Reynolds game.

By the time Trayvon Robinson was born, I had graduated from UCLA and was already taking grad school classes at UC Berkeley. And Jeff Kent and Darren Lewis were playing at Berkeley then.

11 - I can top that. Exactly nine months and eight days after Andy Van Slyke stood in the on-deck circle and watched Jack Clark homer off Tom Niedenfuer, Scott Van Sluke was born.

Scott Van Slyke, that is.

Please, you kids do NOT want to play the "I feel old" game

Derek Thompson #37? Wasn't he doing himself proud earlier this year or am I starting to dotter?

Moving up my comment from thread below to where the action is.

. . . . The Nationals and Redskins both played simultaneous home games yesterday and both ended 9-7. So who's gonna tell me when the last time a baseball and football game were played on the same day in the same city and ended with the same score . . .

Sandy Koufax is the Wikipedia featured article of the day!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

16 - Yes, he was, before blowing out his arm for the second time. Had he not done that, he'd be listed much higher.

19 picky, picky

How Derek Lowe will be stopped this season:

http://tinyurl.com/8e78y

Tommy Lasorda takes over the Dodgers front office

http://tinyurl.com/7w5py

So which Giants player get bounced from the 40-man roster today so Barry Bonds can do ... something?

Eric Karros subscribes to the Tracy will "fire" himself theory.

23 - Eric Karros, the one man who might think less of Tracy than you.

Eric, thanks for all the effort to put this list together.

If Jackson and Navarro were eligible for your list, where would they rank?

Well, there's Grudzielanek...

I think Grudzzlemniaskghk hates Tracy too.

Damn, 14 seconds

If Grudakzleeewtakklanek says his name backwards, does he end up playing for the Devil Rays?

21 - RDF.

DePo tells us how it is:
http://members.tripod.com/~Silence/images/wile.gif

Jeff Kent says hello:
http://www.coyotedesigns.net/looneyville/wile_e/chopper.gif

25.
I'd probably have Jackson ninth and Navarro tenth.

By the way, remember when I eulogized Mike Edwards by saying he didn't ever annoy me?

I retract.

32
I'd be interested in seeing a list of people affiliated with the Dodgers who don't ever annoy you.

The list brings up one interesting thing, which is that a year or so from now, there will be Dodger prospects who weren't alive the last time we won a World Series.

34

Probably quite a few met that criterion before 1955.

34 Cub fans will have sympathy.

3 Eric just curious why you have DeWitt so high (#6)? He had a hot month at Hi A, but he wasn't exactly dominating at Lo A. Loney looks a bit low as does Aybar (although I am not sure who would get bumped other than DeWitt). Also Raglani looks low. BTW any idea why Denker tanked it at Hi A? Overall a great list!

The Frisco version of Giants fans can relate too. And I'm very happy about that.

#15, Marty, I'm with you. Sandy Koufax will be turning 70. Now that makes me feel old.

Regarding the Dodgers chances, I was living near Philadelphia in 1964 and I saw the Phillies lose a 6 game lead with 12 games to go in the season. The 1962 season is still too painful a memory for me to write about, but if my increasingly old memory is correct the Dodgers had a 3 game lead with 7 games left. The 2005 Dodgers are not as good as the 64 Cardinals or the 62 Giants, but the 05 Padres are weaker than the 64 Phillies and the 62 Dodgers.

I will be listening to the first three innings of Dodgers/Rockies and switch over to the Padres/Giants after that. This is always an interesting time of year.

Stan from Tacoma

The 1964 season was the first one I paid attention to as an 8-year-old. The Phillies collapse was a huge deal for me as I was following literally every team in the newspaper that year. The Reds came very close to winning that pennant as well.

37.
We sorta had this conversation the other day -- you're not the only one who disagrees with me. But DeWitt was extremely young for Lo A, and still had a fine season. In 2004, just out of high school, he ripped up the college players in the Pioneer League. His scouting reports are also better than his stats; he was considered the most polished high school hitter in the 2004 draft.

And, of course, exploding against high A pitching at age 19 doesn't hurt, sample size or no sample size.

3
what i don't understand about your list and others lists including expert lists is that somone so low on the list (aybar) is allready on the dodgers team and someone so high on the list (billingsley,guzman,martin,laroche ect.)are not on the dodgers team yet.
i never could understand these lists.

#40, yes they did. The Reds lost to the Phillies on the last day of the season. If I remember correctly there was a possibility of a three way tie for the pennant on the last day of the season if the Mets had beaten the Cardinals. The 1959 pennant race was a great one too, and that one ended up better for the Dodgers.

Stan from Tacoma

42 - the lists are about who will ultimately be the best, not about who is the best or who can help the team the most this very day

42.
Carrying that logic to the extreme, Brian Myrow is a better prospect than Joel Guzman. I think you can figure out the problem with that.

Simply put, everybody ahead of Aybar on the list has the potential to become a better player than Aybar does. This is no reflection on Aybar, but rather on the quality of the farm system.

Frankly, I'm not really sure I understand where you're coming from here. If you'd explain your position a bit more, it would be easier to respond to it.

Lengths of various Dodgers pennant droughts
(date of last win to next win listed)
20 seasons - 1920-1941
16 seasons (and counting) 1988-present
15 seasons - 1900-1916
8 seasons - 1890-1899
7 seasons - 1966-1974
6 seasons - 1981-1988
5 seasons - 1941-1947
5 seasons - 1884-1889 (beginning of franchise)
3 seasons - 1916-1920
3 seasons - 1959-1963
2 seasons - 1956-1959
2 seasons - 1978-1981
2 seasons - 1974-1977
2 seasons - 1949-1952
1 season - 1947-1949
1 season - 1953-1955
1 season - 1963-1965

Does anybody remember the episode where Wile E. Coyote actually caught the Roadrunner? A friend used to tell me about it, but I never believed him until I saw it myself.

It was one of the more recent episodes, looked like it was made in the 60s, and the Coyote was chasing the RR through a series of pipes. The pipes would get bigger and smaller, and the two characters would get bigger and smaller along with the pipes they would be running in.

At the end, the RR comes out of a large pipe and he's giant-sized. The Coyote comes out of a narrow pipe and he's tiny. He grabs the RR around the calf (he only comes up to his knee) and then looks at the audience.

He then holds up a sign that reads something like: "Well, you always wanted me to catch him. Now I finally did."

Then he holds up another sign that reads: "Now what do you expect me to do with him?"

I think that's how the Dodgers would probably feel if they did catch SD and made the playoffs.

46.
Don't forget the Dodgers won the pennant during the first season in franchise history -- 1883, when they were members of the minor league Inter-State Association.

In 1964, the Phillies and Reds played a two game series to finish the season and the games were scheduled on Friday and Sunday with a scheduled off day on Saturday.

The Cardinals finished that same weekend with a 3-game series at home (with no off day) against the Mets and LOST the first two games to the Mets, 1-0 and 11-5 with Gibson and Sadecki pitching. And the Cardinals were losing on the final day 3-2 in the fifth and starter Curt Simmons had gotten knocked out and replaced by Gibson. The Cardinals rallied against a succession of mediocre to bad Met pitchers for an 11-5 win.

47 - Didn't know about that at all. That's great - thanks. Sort of like solving whether you let Charlie Brown kick the football. Great solution.

45
i'm asking why is laroche still in the minors and aybar is on the team, they both play 3b, so why do we have aybar instead of laroche if laroche is better.
and do these lists rate them with a consideration of positions, meaning i think martin is going to be a top not catcher, where as laroche is just going to be an above average 3b, so i would rank martin above laroche, does these lists do that or do they have a different way of ranking.
and then how do you or anyone rank a pitcher vs a position player.

i guess i just don't understand.

Then they beat the hated Yankees and an aging Mantle in the series. Wasn't Berra managing the Yankees that year? The Cardinal manager then jumped ship to manage the Yankees the next year as I recall.

Was it just me or did I kill the site?

51 Because many of those players aren't yet ready to face major league pitching or major league hitters. They've got the tools, but they haven't learned all of what they need to know to use them to their best advantage. Thus, they need to stay in the minors, both to complete their education, and to avoid compromising the major league team while they complete their education.

We never would've seen Mike Edwards or Oscar Robles if LaRoche had been ready, but he's not.

If you want to see the effects of force-feeding promising young talent into the major leagues because you have no choice, look at the Devil Rays and the Royals of late. Sure, in a sink or swim environment, some guys swim, sooner than you thought they would. But some guys sink permanently, their confidence destroyed. I'm sure the smarter people on this board can cite a few examples of great prospects whose promise was destroyed by too-early exposure to the majors.

52 Berra was going to get fired, but the Yankees put on a last-ditch pennant run, getting past the Tigers I believe. Berra had alienated the Yankee management because he lost control of himself and slapped shortstop Phil Linz in the face for playing a harmonica on the team bus after a loss.

Johnny Keane was the Cardinal manager you're referring to. He jumped to the Yankees the following year, and was privileged to preside over the sudden decline of that dynasty, aka "The Horace Clarke Years." Red Schoendeinst took over the Cardinals.

I hate when the toaster stops working.

50 I did some research and found that the episode I mentioned was actually done in 1980.

http://www.straightdope.com/columns/010330.html

There are apparently some underground episodes where Wile E. actually catches and eats the RR.

50
schulz did let good ol' charlie brown hit a homerun once, in the later years. i think it was a series of panels of charlie brown doing cartwheels.

i would have rather he struck out and then had his cleats knocked off by a batted ball, for old times' sake.

51.
Willy Aybar, at this exact moment, is a better baseball player than Andy LaRoche, mostly because he's more polished. LaRoche has more raw talent. If LaRoche is able to harness that talent, he will be a better player -- a much better player -- than Willy Aybar.

And yes, of course I take position into account. If Russell Martin were a first baseman, he'd be about #30 on the list. But good-hitting catchers are hard to find.

And now BTF is gone.

Bob, please stop breaking websites.

Hotmail wasn't working earlier, either. It's working now, and nobody sent me mail anyway.

Being paranoid, I assumed that my employers had systematically blocked out my favorite sites in order to increase productivity.

Just another thing to add to list my list of anxieties....

57 The ones where Snoopy actually talks should be outlawed.

There are cartoons where Wile E. Coyote actually talks that should suffer the same fate.

Holy cow, Ogden has a cool looking field. Check it out.

http://minors.mlblogs.com/photos/uncategorized/franklincoveyfield.jpg

61 They can't fire you, Bob. If there's ever a total system crash, you're the only employee who can list every book and periodical in the entire library from memory.

63 Wow, that's beautiful. I think Steve went there this season.

Franklin Covey is not Ogden's field. It is Salt Lake's field.

Ogden is called Lindquist Field. I've seen it from the outside. The game I went to was in Orem.

66
Oops. I was reading a confusing photo caption.

Carry on.

From the Giants game preview on MLB.com

"The Giants' playoff run begins now.

They're seven games back of San Diego in the National League West with 20 contests left, still time to make their bid for the divisional title, especially with seven games remaining against the Padres."

Baseball Prospectus has the Giants postseason odds at a robust .96%

The Dodgers have the best chance of any "contender" in the NL West at 2.2%

The Rockies have finally dropped down to zero.

What I take from #69 is that we are less delusional than Giants fans.

But then, they're Giants fans, so we already knew that.

I also had my Dad, who follows the Dodger minor leagues closely, do his own top 30 list. This is what he came up with. Independently of each other, we had the same top seven in exact order. Not sure if that means anything.

1.Chad Billingsley, p
2.Joel Guzman, ss
3. Andy LaRoche, 3b
4. Russell Martin, c
5. Jonathan Broxton, p
6. Blake DeWitt, 3b
7. Scott Elbert, p
8. Matt Kemp, of
9. Justin Orenduff, p
10. Greg Miller, p
11. Hong Chih Kuo, p
12. Chuck Tiffany, p
13. Delwyn Young, 2b
14. Tony Abreu, 2b
15. Chi-Lung Hu, ss
16. James Loney, 1b
17. Willy Aybar, 2b-3b
18. Cory Dunlap, 1b
19. Blake Johnson, p
20. Ivan DeJesus, ss
21. Franquelis Osoria, p
22. Sergio Pedroza, of
23. Jumbo Diaz, p
24. Travis Denker, 2b
25. Jesus Soto, 2b
26. Juan Rivera, ss
27. Anthony Raglani, of
28. Juan Apodaca, c
29. Brent Leach, p
30. Josh Bell, 3b

I'm surprised to see Chi-Lung Hu so high on both lists. I've gotten the impression from others that he'll probably be another Juan Castro. Can he really hit?

65 - I'm with Icaros. Wish I was there.

73 It's Utah, though, Jim. Probably won't be a full bar.

I'm a die hard fan, and I know the percentages are horrible, but here's my hope for the end of the season:

Dodgers
vs. Col. 3-0 sweep necessary
vs. SF. 2-2 tough to win series on road
vs. AZ. 2-1 d'back are reeling
vs. Pitt. 3-1 could happen
vs. AZ. 2-1 could happen at home
vs. SD. 2-1 must happen
Final Record: 79-83

Padres
vs. SF. 1-2 Bonds wins one game
vs. WA. 0-3 unlikely, but necessary
vs. Col. 2-2 we need some help here
vs. AZ. 1-2 Green wins one game
vs. SF. 2-2 Gnats can be gritty
vs. LA. 1-2 Dodgers win final game
Final Record: 78-84

Now I will hear from the voices of realism . . .

74 -- As long as you pay the membership fee, you can get in the bar.

72
So far, Hu seems to be on track to become Cesar Izturis in every respect. You can decide for yourself whether that's a good thing or not.

Scouts say his power is "projectable," which is often scoutese for "absent." (See Loney, James)

I hope he makes the majors, if only for the Abbott & Costello jokes.

70
I suppose I just added one to the "delusional column".

77 Thanks. Any info on second base prospect Marvin What?

If I calculate the rotation correctly, Tracy will have Lowe and Penny starting the final series and Weaver would be pitching the final game of the season vs. the Padres. That would make it either Jackson's or Houlton's turn in the rotation for a tie-breaking playoff game. When will Perez be ready?

81
Today's notes (forget which paper) say Perez will not be making any starts the rest of the season. Will pitch in the pen if he comes back at all.

Eric - i like your list, you obviously value tools and potential more than i do. Id just like to note how odd it is that you, and others, consider Aybar in the 10-20 part Dodgers prospect lists, while Baseball Prospectus had him as the 34 best in the game.

My only real objection to your list is Dewitt so high, especiall when Denker is so low. Both were 19 years old this season. Both spent most of the season in low-A. Denker was tops in the league in obp and 4th in slg. The real difference between the two is pedegree and late season performance in high A. Even counting there stats in high A, Denker had a way better season. Also, Denker plays secondbase. I cant believe your letting Denker's draft position drop him that low, considering the inefficiencies associated with the draft.

82
I may have underrated Denker. I would have had him higher if there was anyone out there who thinks he can stay at 2B. But as far as I can tell, there isn't. (I haven't seen him myself, so I'm relying on what I read in this case.)

Aybar as the #34 prospect in baseball was ludicrous then and is still ludicrous now. I love the kid, but for them to rate him above Billingsley and LaRoche says more about BP than it does about Aybar. And not in a good way.

I tried to strike an even balance between tools and performance. I probably overrated the toolsy Pimentel, but then, I also rated performance guys like D.Young, Ruggiano, and Leach much more highly than Baseball America would.

74 - Most of my drinking is virtual, Icaros. In person, I bear little resemblance to Frankie Fontaine.

84 If I could master the art of virtual intoxication, I'd be all for it, provided I could avoid virtual hangover.

82.He wasnt ahead of Billingsley, and i would highly doubt they would argue that he's better than laroche today. But from a performance analysis standpoint it was hard for them not to. He outperfomed Weeks and Barfield that year, and they were all the same age in the Southern League. Another big factor in their decision is his defense, their stats for him defensively were safely above any one else, and far above Weeks and Barfield. I have yet to see any compeling argument against Aybar. You said that everyone you rated ahead of him had a higher ceiling, do you really think that Hu will be better than him? I think Aybar suffers from the fact that he's a very balanced player, the only skill that he excells at is defense and defense is the hardest thing to measure. You obvioulsy ranked Dewitt highly because of the success he had in his late season promotion, if Aybar continues playing well in the majors, would that change your mind?

I'd be all for it, provided I could avoid virtual hangover.

It's as simple as turning off the computer. Duh :)

"You said that everyone you rated ahead of him had a higher ceiling, do you really think that Hu will be better than him?"

No, which is why I rated Aybar higher than Hu.

--------------
"You obvioulsy ranked Dewitt highly because of the success he had in his late season promotion"

Beware of what appears "obvious" when trying to read other people's minds... I rated DeWitt highly because of the reasons I already set forth in #41. His success in his late season promotion was a very minor consideration, because it was so brief.

Uh oh. Looks like L.A. forgot to pay the power bill again.

Either that or there's one unhappy squirrel out there.

Conserning Denker, where have you read about denker defensively because i havent heard anything. But really, who cares? He would be a good prospect if he was a DH. The obvious comparison for Denker is Marcus Giles:
Giles low-A 329/428/636
Denker low-A 310/417/556
both guys where overlooked that year because of their hight (which is utterly irrational) and questions about their defense. But Denkers one key advantage, while giles was 20 in 1998, Denker was 19 this season. BP saw him then, but BA completely wrote him off. Im sorry,but when i guy controls the strikezone like he does AND hits for power at that age, it doesnt really matter what his positions is.

"if Aybar continues playing well in the majors, would that change your mind?"
------

No, because I already think Aybar is a terrific prospect and will be a good major league player. Him continuing to play well won't change that opinion; it'll enhance it.

Look, it's not intended as some kind of insult to Willy Aybar to rate him the #16 prospect in the organization. Aybar is awesome; there are simply 15 guys I think are more awesome. No shame for Willy in that.

The list is nice but I think your undervaluing Willy Aybar. His future is at 2nd base and his value as a 2nd baseman is much higher then as a 3b. For a 22 year old he did just fine in his 1st year at AAA. He's only a few months older then LaRoche and he started the season at AAA while LaRoche started the season at high A. I expect that if Aybar had been in high A he also would have destroyed the league. LaRoche was repeating the league. Not saying he's a better prospect then LaRoche but I'd sure move him higher then your spot. Just not enough quality minor league 2nd baseman for him not to get more love. I'd move Kemp in front of Dewitt but I'm a big Kemp fan. Centerfielders who can hit have become a rare breed. Broxton loses lots of value if he only becomes a setup man, same with Kuo. Elbert seems much to high. I respect the work you did for the top 50 but after 30 aren't the other 20 just throwing a dart?

92
I wrote 93 while you were writing 92 so it is not a response.

"Im sorry,but when i guy controls the strikezone like he does AND hits for power at that age, it doesnt really matter what his positions is."
-----

Agreed, and that's why I like Denker so much. Again, it's no insult to be #15 on this list. You're getting too hung up on the numbers. The #15 prospect in the Dodger system would probably be the #4 or #5 prospect in most other systems. Denker is a very good prospect.

Which players ahead of Denker and Aybar on the list do you think should be rated below them?

"I respect the work you did for the top 50 but after 30 aren't the other 20 just throwing a dart?"
-------

In some respect, the whole concept of rating prospects to begin with is nothing more than dart-throwing. But heck, I always liked darts.

91
But you have to be bit concerned with his low production in High A. I think until we see him succeed at high A and AA we have to moderate our expectations. Lots of guys have succeeded in the low minors and were never able to adapt as they moved up the rungs.

Re: L.A. power outage:

Bob!!!!

Hu has more power potential than Izturis ever showed. His plus defense at a premium defensive position, coupled with adequate offensive potential, vaults him over Aybar in my opinion, given that Aybar does not do anything REALLY well, may not be able to play 2B in the majors, and may not have enough power for 3B.

Even BA's Alan Matthews, who under-rated Denker in the off-season significantly, admitted that Denker draws Marcus Giles comparisons, and noted that his defense at 2B is "average," which does not suggest he cannot stick at 2B.

Hope the Los Angeles power outage doesn't spill over to the Dodgers offense.

Well, it's coming up on 2pm and it's about time for Jim Tracy to get out his Magic 8 Ball. vr, Xei

Well we're back in business here.

But dammit what about my lunch hour?

Nice to see some good Dodger prospect discussion instead of TV/Movie talk. :) A special thanks to Eric and his top 50 list, I'm sure alot of work went in to it. I have a question, who is the youngest Dodger to play at A, AA, AAA and the major league roster this year? thanks. vr, Xei

I love how the LAPD is denying that they're not considering today's power outage a terrorist act even though that dude put out the threat yesterday that something would happen in LA today. Seems like a pretty weak attack though.

Then again, I had to navigate the Wilshire/Veteran intersection near the Federal Building without any lights, which was interesting to say the least.

Well, if some guy is going to destory L.A., he probably should have taken out Edison's power grid along with.

Yippee, I get to go home! Woo hoo!

It wasn't a terrorist attack, Overkill. Likely explanations are:

1: A squirrel chewed through the wrong line, much to his regret

or

2: Bob broke it.

105 - Not to be a killjoy, Bob...but you have to face the traffic.

For all those defending Aybar so much, don't his stats scream Sean Burroughs? Hits for a pretty good average, not much power, not very fast, plays pretty good defense? Hopefully he'll work out a bit better than Burroughs, but he'll have to turn some of those doubles into HR if he wants to stick at 3B.

106 I'm not saying it was a terrorist act for sure, the threat just makes it seem very suspicious. In the 6 years I've lived in LA I don't remember anything happening like this aside from Enron-aided rolling blackouts.

Now they're saying on the news that an employee at a substation in West LA inadvertently cut a power cord. I'm not one to cry terrorism at the drop of a hat, but today's issues sound a little fishy.

It is easy to defend Aybar because I see his future as a 2nd baseman. The Dodgers moved him from 3rd to 2nd for the very reasons you mentioned. He's playing 3rd now because we happen to have a 2nd baseman but we don't have a 3rd baseman.

"I like the people here," he said. "Being a Dodgerthought blogger is way more fun than I thought it would be."

110 Not to encourage Overkill94, but the Times made the same, "videotape yesterday, powerloss today," leap.

113 Like I said before though, that's a pretty weak attack.

I just watched an interview with the LADWP manager and they're saying the wrong cord was cut and then attached to a line not expecting that much power, so all the transmission was shut down to prevent an overload. This makes sense since it is similar to my line of work (although at a lower volume), but I still think it's quite coincidental that it happened today.

When I saw Aybar this past summer I thought of Jim Gilliam as a possible comparison. Both are switch hitters and both hit line drives. Aybar did not look to me as good a hitter from the right side, though that was just from a couple of at bats. I did not see enough of him to really make an evaluation, but he looked like a good ballplayer in both the field and at bat. If Aybar is anywhere close to Jim Gilliam, the Dodgers will be most fortunate.

The best Triple A Dodger players I have ever seen in Tacoma were Greg Brock followed by Mike Piazza. I thought Brock would have the type of career that Todd Helton has had. Piazza killed the ball almost every time I saw him swing the bat in Tacoma. The best Triple A Dodger pitchers I have seen were the brothers Martinez, Pedro and Ramon.

I hope to see some of the players on Eric's list when Vegas plays in Tacoma next year. Eric's #24 prospect Ivan deJesus is of particular interest to me. If young Ivan can play defensive like his father, he will be a joy to watch.

Stan from Tacoma

I got home fairly quickly actually.

I found out that when I come home earlier than expected, there are surprises.

Turns out my cat was hosting a bunch of other cats in my place for a craps game.

Just think. Today was the day I was actually going to return all my overdue books...

The blackout sections are frightening in the recent book partly about the 1977 Yankees, "Ladies and Gentlemen, the Bronx is Burning." A Malthusian nightmare stampeded the thin veneer of civilization in about 15 minutes, and businesses were destroyed that never came back. That blackout began in daylight, although it was somewhat closer to dusk when it happened. It wasn't so much the darkness as the total distraction of the police that allowed the looting to occur.

So the lack of reports of looting is a good sign for LA's social fabric, no?

116 So long as it's not dogs playing poker, I'd say you're OK.

The scene at Bob's place...

Voice of Emily: Moe, Larry, cheesit. It's Bob!

118 I should've checked before writing this post not after. The NY '77 blackout began around 8:45 p.m., just after dark.

I still feel good about LA's social fabric, but now I have no basis for it.

Just because I'm feeling grumpy today I'm going to play devils advocate to our prospect list.
1. Chad Billingsley 07/29/84-I believe he'll become an ace and be part of the rotation by late 2006
2. Joel Guzman 11/24/84-Will either end up at 1st base or RF and will never play SS or 3b for the Dodgers. Such a wildcard, could be Vlady or Kingman. Once he moves off of SS I think his hitting will progress rapidly and he will see the majors in 2006 and have an impact in 2007.
3. Andy LaRoche 08/13/83-His awesome year in High A in which he repeated has spiked his value. Trade him now if we can get an excellent return. I'm betting that Andy Marte has the better career and that LaRoche is not our David Wright. An above average prospect but will never start an all-star game in the NL. Slug% dropped 200 points from High A to AA. He's not ready to be our starting 3b in 2006 and I don't expect to see him until 2007.
4. Russell Martin 02/15/83-Will have a major league career and it will be interesting who becomes the Dodger catcher of the future. I think both Navarro and Martin have the potential to become all-star catchers. I would keep both of them and trade one when we have a need or in case of injury.
5. Jonathan Broxton 06/16/84-I hope he sets up in 2006 and moves back into the rotation in 2007. He's ready now to help us.
6. Blake DeWitt 08/20/85-have no opinion until he plays a full season of High A and moves up to AA. Disapointed in his low A season but he really smacked the ball in high A for 31 at bats. As Eric said he was the highest rated infield hitter coming out of high school in 2004 but other high school hitters drafted that year have already passed him on the prospect ladder in other organizations.
7. Scott Elbert 05/13/85-future arm surgery
8. Luke Hochevar 09/15/83-future idiot, acts like he's 18 instead of 22.
9. Matt Kemp 9/23/84-all star outfielder, currently my favorite prospect.
10. Greg Miller 11/03/84-never makes it joining the Kiki Jones/Oppenhimer wing of high schools studs relegated to coaching high school baseball after promising starts to their minor league careers.
11. Chuck Tiffany 01/25/85-future arm surgery
12. Hong-Chih Kuo 07/23/81-more arm surgery
13. Delwyn Young 06/30/82-won't play for the Dodgers but will become in time a professional hitter.
14. James Loney 05/07/84-should go back to pitching. Maybe a silly remark but two unremarkable years in AA have left me very cynical that he has a future as a 1st baseman. If he's Darrin Erstadt without the speed, what is the point. Still very young so maturation may be the key for him. He seems to have the talent. Considering he was one of the best high school pitchers in the nation when he was drafted I'm not sure why he's not playing the outfield considering the Dodgers have few outfield prospects and 1st baseman are a dime a dozen. Just ask Jason Philips.
15. Travis Denker 08/05/85-have no opinion until he plays a full season of High A and moves up to AA. He was the opposite of DeWitt. He had an incredible low A season but really slumped once he was promoted to high A.
16. Willy Aybar 03/09/83-Will be a starting 2nd or 3rd baseman in the major leagues.
17. Julio Pimentel 12/14/85-future arm surgery
18. Chin-Lung Hu 02/02/84-starting SS in 2008
19. Justin Orenduff 05/27/83-will be in the rotation by 2007 if not sooner
20. Justin Ruggiano 04/12/82-no idea

I'm pulling for Greg Miller and Kuo but have realistic expectations because pitchers who have had mutliple surgeries while in the minor leagues don't become quality major league pitchers. In Millers case neither surgeries were labrum or TJ but in both cases his return timetables were way way off. Kuo is being handled with glass gloves for a reason.

It may look very cynical to have so many pitchers falling to arm surgery but pitchers are pitchers and some of our prospects will fall to the knive much like Megrew/Ketchner/Miller fell last winter.

So I assume that if the power goes back on soon enough, that it will still be "Game On" at Dodger Stadium tonight.

I would hate to disappoint the 20,000 or so people who are heading out there tonight.

It was just a blackout. It was hardly the '92 riots.

Wasn't Ivan Dejesus the earlier version of Izturis? I think that was okay in his day but I'll take a Johnny Peralta today.

And not a really big blackout either. San Gabriel Valley was fine. It played hell down here in downtown l.a. My sources at DWP say a power line ws cut in the San Fernando valley.

So I'm living in Woodland Hills and have no idea what anyone is talking about. Did this outage just effect downtown LA?

Ch. 7 just reported that the soap operas that were interrupted will be replayed starting at 3:00 am.

Boy, I was really sweating that!

It hit downtown, east valley, KoreaTown and some south L.A. as far as I can tell.

Westchester lost power for about a minute. But we're used to that.

Oh, I hear LAX was also out

Just for a moment, Marty. LAX is in Westchester.

128

Didn't people whine about the news "interrupting" their soaps in the days following 9/11?

I shouldn't cast stones because I was pissed at the terrorists for interrupting baseball. Of course, I also realized that there were more important things than baseball going on in the country.

131 LAX has a big-ol-honkin' backup/co-generator. The lights probably flickered for a second.

Some things are off. My little application that tells me the weather that it is presently raining and 62 degrees where I live.

It's not.

So now that the lights are back on, is that a "blackin?"

I hope LAX has a few generators laying around. Likewise the sewer plant. One of the big raw sewage spills of the 80s was caused by a power interruption.

So given this great gift of free time, I have to decided to utilize it by doing my laundry.

I like to live each day to the fullest. And have clean towels.

The only time I recall LAX going dark for an appreciable amount of time was after the Northridge earthquake, when it was shut down for several hours. It was pretty eerie. But you could see stars!

MLB had coin flips for possible tiebreaker playoffs.

There were none performed for the NL West.

My office is usually a meat locker. But since the air conditioning here went with the power, it's quite pleasant.

Big callup for Oakland:

Hiram Bocachica is up with the big squad. This should help Oakland immensely against Cleveland.

So the lack of reports of looting is a good sign for LA's social fabric, no?

Angelenos have become increasingly sophisticated. We have learned to express our outrage by honking our horns at jammed intersections.

I predict that Plaschke will write an article about how DePodesta gave up Hiram Bocachica for nothing if Hiram has anything to do with the A's getting into the playoffs. Or even if he doesn't, there will still be an article about how Bocachica was a good 'chemistry' guy and woefully undervalued. The quotes will be gathered around the time the A's play the Angels.

122 - response:

Andy Laroche - but isn't the Southern League an even tougher hitter's environment?
Hochevar - don't think he will be signed at all. The Dodgers have advanced from being aggressive negotiators to just plain stupid, depending on which reports you believe (if you listen to Sosnick, the Dodgers instigated the "advisor" shift).

Otherwise agree with your comments in the main.

Eric Enders, why aren't you blogging? This is good stuff and deserves to stand on its own.

I think it says a lot about the Dodgers system that all their talent is still at AA. I'm hopeful that this time, some of it will actually advance to Vegas and do well there. Personally, I think Jackson will start the year in AA again and possibly return to Vegas if he has a successful half season there. I have a belief that one reason the Dodgers system has seemed so thin despite the hosannahs coming from Baseball America and elsewhere is that so many guys have been declared great finds before they can get to higher levels, pitchers especially, and then run into trouble once they do.

Re: looting

Doesn't anyone remember 1992? That was some high quality looting go on then.

Just think of all those people with outdated video equipment they had looted.

Interesting word anomaly, Jon. Maybe the term black-out originally referred to the mandatory extinguishing or concealment of lights in England during the Nazi blitz. It was something you did on purpose, the same way you might tell your kid to "put that light out." There probably should be another term for a power failure--especially when the entire thing happens during a sunny day.

147 I vote for "power failure"

145 - Even Boras, I believe, has backed off accusing the Dodgers of wrongdoing. I think that version of the story has been discredited.

I vote for calling it a "Cesar Izturis"

146 - I have one better than that: back before trade with China made every piece of electronica cheaper to replace than repair, there was a big electronics repair shop on La Brea that got broken into and a bunch of stuff stolen. I always wondered at the idiots who broke into a repair shop to steal broken VCRs.

Hiram Bocachica was traded in 2002 during the Dan Evans "regime".

I like it...."Much of L.A. subjected to a rolling Izturis"

I think Sublime has the best song about the LA Riots. vr, Xei

Or even better, a "Rolling Phillips."

152 - ah, the good old days when the team had a consistently winning record. Remember that?

I never thought I would see "Sublime" and "best song" in the same sentence.

1992 was due to LAPD making a tactical retreat from a mob scene, which all could see on TV. Bad guys like to see police running the other way.

A photographer at the Santa Monica newspaper I was working at then was in the helicopter taking pictures of Reginald Denny getting beaten up. He said people were shooting at the copter.

Game thread is open...

145,149 - Has Hochevar done anything yet that would cause him problems with the NCAA? Sosnick was merely another "advisor", right?

152 - Like fact has ever mattered to Plaschke.

161 - No, the word now is that Hochevar lost his eligibility due to one of the contracts he signed, I think with Boras but maybe the other guys.

i was a huge fan of wile e. coyote as a kid. in fact, when i was around 10, i wrote a letter to warner bros. complaining about the fact that he never caught the roadrunner. not only was it highly dissatisfying, i wrote, but i said that it sent the wrong message to the children of america that the highly creative, extremely intelligent and inventive Wile E. Coyote, Supergenius (supergenius!!), could be constantly foiled by a hedonistic birdbrain halfwit such as the roadrunner, whose only appreciable characteristic was immense speed and incredible good luck, and that i felt that the whole spirit of the cartoon ran contrary to the american spirit of ingenuity and persistence (that's not verbatim, but it's close; i was a precocious child). being 10 though, i was pretty serious about it. and while warner bros. didn't take me quite so seriously, i did get a letter back from bugs bunny (yes, bugs bunny himself), thanking me for my letter and suggesting that wile e. coyote wasn't as smart as he thought he was, and that i wasn't giving the roadrunner enough credit for his intelligence. i wasn't totally satisfied, but it's still pretty cool that i got a letter from bugs.

Just because it fits more in this thread, an I haven't seen it posted

Hu, 21 in Hi A, .313/.347.430

Izturis, 19 in Hi A, .308/.340/.422

That's pretty similar, although Izzy was 2 years younger. However, Izzy's highest SLG since was .381, last year. He's had an ISO over .100 3 times, at 19, at 22 in AA, and in his short stay with Toronto at 21. Hu is suppose to have more power, at least similar to what he has now

Also, MiLB.com's 3 letter minimum for their player search makes things very difficult for Hu

164 - awesome story.

The best (well, maybe only) song dedicated to Wile E. from Marc Knopfler's The Ragpicker's Dream CD:

Coyote
LOOK AT ME COYOTE
DON'T LET A LITTLE ROAD DUST PUT YOU OFF
YOU CAN'T JUDGE A BOOK
WELL YOU KNOW THAT STUFF
THERE'S A TEAR IN MY UPHOLSTERY
AND A HOLE IN MY SHOE
BUT DON'T YOU JUST WISH THAT YOU COULD
MAKE HALF OF THE SPEED I DO
SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO

YOU CAN'T CATCH ME COYOTE
THOUGH THERE MAY BE BLOOD ON THE TRACKS
THERE MAY BE SOME BRIDGES BURNING
BEHIND OUR BACKS
BUT I GOT MY LAUNDRY ON THE BACKSEAT
AND AN ITINERARY TOO
AND DON'T YOU JUST WISH THAT YOU COULD
MAKE HALF OF THE SPEED I DO
SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO
SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO

NOW I'M A SPECK ON YOUR HORIZON
GETTING SMALLER FAST
AN AMBUSH WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING
I HOPE IT'S BETTER THAN YOUR LAST

ONCE AGAIN THE ROADRUNNER
LEAVES THE COYOTE IN THE DIRT
YOU'VE GOT ANOTHER PLAN OF ACTION
BUT WE ALL KNOW IT AIN'T NEVER GONNA WORK
IT MUST BE HARD HAVING DOG DREAMS
THAT NEVER COME TRUE
AND DON'T YOU JUST WISH THAT YOU COULD
MAKE HALF OF THE SPEED I DO
SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO
SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO, SPEED I DO

164

I'm glad to know that there were other kids like me growing up.

Didn't Cliff Clavin think that the Roadrunner represented the Antichrist?

165 - easy way to deal with this is to just go to the Roster or Stats pages on the Jacksonville MILB.com website.

169 That requires several extra clicks. I try to minimize my clicks =)

167

So far he has been the best concert I have seen all year.

The runner up is Tom Petty.

Eagles are next.

164 That is a great story, Vishal. There's a wonderful coffee-table book that came out a while ago, a historical/critical survey of Warner Bros. cartoons called, That's All, Folks! Great discussions of how the signature characters were created and evolved through the work of different animators. Wonderful quotes from Chuck Jones about the Coyote/Roadrunner cartoons in which he confirmed that, yes, the Coyote is supposed to be the sympathetic character of the two. IIRC, Jones conceived of the Coyote as a bleak sort of Everyman, obsessively chasing something he can never get— and the Roadrunner isn't much of a prize, either for the trouble, all sinew and gristle. He even discussed those cartoons as a satire on the human condition in the manner of Swift, although it's hard to believe that Chuck Jones could ever be quite that harsh.

171 - Boy, do I envy you, jason...I didn't find out about it till the night before, and was unable to make it. Bet it was great.

Prospects IMHO:
These are guys I've seen play if that means anything.
Laroche will put up Cey like numbers in a couple years.
Guzman seems streaky.When he's hot he is almost Guerrero like .Other times he looks like he has a hole in his swing.He seems sort of emotionless on the field.
Delwyn Young=Victor Diaz.See ya!
Martin works hard behind the plate,very good eye.It will be interesting what happens with him and Navarro.
I know I've been selling Loney high for awhile,but he is really a good looking player.He'll be the best Dodger defensive first baseman since Wes Parker and a solid major league hitter.
Molokai,isn't it a bit cynical to think 98% of our pitching prospects will have arm surgery?They seem to monitor pitch counts pretty well.
Aybar=Juan Castro.

Aybar was easily out. He gets his first stolen base and 2 for Kent in the game! I'd keep running on Closser.