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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Remember in December when rumors flew that the Dodgers would include Edwin Jackson in a trade for then-Oakland, now-Atlanta pitcher Tim Hudson? At the time, I wrote that Hudson's short-term prognosis was good even if his long-term fortunes were anyone's guess. (I bolded one paragraph this morning for emphasis.)
Anyone who thinks he knows how Tim Hudson will perform over the next several seasons ... doesn't know.Now, I don't know how realistic it really was to acquire Hudson, who has an ERA of 3.36 and a Value Over Replacement Pitcher of 38.9 (23rd in baseball) in 2005. But the issues I raised last year seems to have been more than valid - with the interesting twist that you might substitute two different names for Miller and Hanrahan - Chad Billingsley for starters.Here are the 10 most similar players to Hudson at age 28, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Scores are out of 1000.
Jack McDowell (956)
Mike Mussina (945)
Bob Welch (944)
Dennis Leonard (941)
Doug Drabek(941)
Kevin Millwood (940)
Ron Darling (938)
Bill Hoffer (937)
Bill Lee (934)
Kevin Appier (933)...
Are you overwhelmed? Underwhelmed? Neither? Two of the three closest comparables, Mussina and Welch, were top-notch for five seasons. On the other hand, McDowell quickly faltered. In the middle, Leonard and Drabek offered three more good seasons.
The decline in Hudson's strikeout rate concerns me, but the man does seem to have margin for error. Last year, despite striking out only 103 batters of the 783 he faced, he allowed only eight home runs. If it's a tightrope he's walking, he's got great balance.
It seems that Hudson is probably still a safe bet to be a bargain in 2005 - a star performer earning about $6 million in the final year of his contract. Beyond that, he may be overpriced. Conversely, for the next few years before he gains free agency, rumored Dodger tradee Edwin Jackson will probably be a bargain no matter what he does - but he may not do much in 2005.
I think one path that has gone unexplored is whether renting Hudson for a year and then letting him go is completely unacceptable. If you have faith that Greg Miller, Joel Hanrahan or any of the Dodger pitching prospects offers as much promise as Jackson, then perhaps it's okay to sacrifice one, get the Dodgers through a serious starting pitching crunch in 2005, and then rely on the remaining prospects starting in 2006. However, if you think Jackson is superior to the others, then you should be willing to go through any growing pains with him in 2005.
I like Jackson a lot and find his struggles in 2004 to be largely irrelevant in discussing his future. It's the same story as Adrian Beltre - anything you get from a 21-year-old at the major-league level is pure bonus. But here's my challenge for you: Stop comparing Jackson to Hudson and start comparing him to the other Dodger pitching prospects. Do you think Jackson can do a job that the others can't?
By the way, the other name rumored to be included with Jackson in the trade? Antonio Perez.
* * *
With the Dodgers this season, Jackson is holding opponents to a .588 OPS when he draws contact or gets a strike on the first pitch (9 for 34, no home runs, no walks). When his first pitch is a ball, the opponent OPS more than doubles, to 1.207 (9 for 26, two home runs, nine walks).
That needs to improve, starting tonight.
* * *
Side note from my Dodger Thoughts archives tour:
I pondered whether baseball would be a better game with a no-leadoffs rule. A runner could only go once the pitch has been thrown. That would eliminate the balk rule and pickoff throws to first - neither of which represents the game at its best.It would also speed up the game - which is an issue for some people, though not really for me.A no-leadoff rule would cut down on stolen bases and taking an extra base, increase double plays, and therefore cut down on offense. If that's a problem for you - and it certainly would be for the Dodgers - you could make one other change, reducing the distance between the bases to 85 feet. I know, I'm rearranging Stonehenge here, but I thought it an interesting notion. Please feel free to point out other pitfalls.
Anyone likey?
* * *
Update: Dayn Perry of Baseball Prospectus finds that an all-star team from the National League West would, in fact, be good enough to beat the Red Sox - and even the Cardinals with Scott Rolen out.
NL West Position/Role Player VORP C Ramon Hernandez, Padres 14.0 1B Todd Helton, Rockies 45.7 2B Jeff Kent, Dodgers 58.6 3B Troy Glaus, Diamondbacks 46.6 SS Omar Vizquel, Giants 17.7 LF Moises Alou, Giants 39.4 CF Milton Bradley, Dodgers 23.8 RF Brian Giles, Padres 59.0 DH Shawn Green, Diamondbacks 41.3 SP Jake Peavy, Padres 50.2 SP Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks 32.5 SP Noah Lowry, Giants 32.2 SP Brad Penny, Dodgers 31.3 SP Derek Lowe, Dodgers 20.1 RP Scott Linebrink, Padres 22.5 NL West Total 534.9 Red Sox Total 427.1 Cardinals Total 480.3
The Cubs gave up on Eric Karros too.
For those just tuning in ... Man, Eric Karros is annoying, as T.J. Simers' column today reminds us.
No leadoffs would be really drop scoring as it will be hard to take an extra base on hits.
The only rule I think needs to be adopted is that tie games should be suspended and not replayed in their entirety.
I don't care about the balk rule, though I concede it's really, really difficult to call correctly, and often doesn't get called.
3b- Aybar
1b- Choi
CF- Drew
2b- Kent
RF- Cruz
SS- Perez
LF- Werth
C- Navarro
Maybe if we somehow draw cloe enough (say 2-3 games), then the Dodgers will at least activate JD Drew and play him every other game. Or at least let him pinch hit.
I'm checking to see if the UCLA Alumni Association can boot Eric Karros out. Membership has its privileges!
This is the sort of information that is vital to an insider's understanding of the game. Unfortunately, I have no idea what it means.
Does Geoff Edwards host the Spin Board? (Probably Bob will be the only one to get that, if even him.)
Eric Karros 1993-1998
For more recent news:
http://www.compleatsteve.com/essays/tut.htm
So I guess it was the Nobe Kawano after all...
40 - Beat the Roadrunner. That's the motto for the rest of the season.
These metaphors are confusing.
Wrong place to be asking that question.
Dave Roberts must get his due!
It was actually worse than the snippet printed in the Times. Karros said the one good thing to come out of this season was that it would raise Tracy's credibility. Among other things, we should have been able to predict Choi's failure to emerge, just as he failed in Chicago and Florida.
It was hard to believe it was Eric Karros, and the impression I got was that it was a calculated thing on his part. He can't really be a Tracy booster. I'd totally right it off as radio blather, if I didn't think there was a chance these "ideas" would gain traction.
With the expanded rosters, it'd have no bearing on preventing other players from being here.
It also might at least make the opposing manager consider the possibility of Drew's bat off the bench. Using Drew as a decoy would have some good effects.
Whats preventing Drew from being activated, if if he's still hurt? Is there a reason?
56 - Nothing, really. But do you really think it would make a difference? Seems remote.
Glavine's ERA+ from ages 25-36
153, 132, 127, 107, 137, 147, 142, 171, 105, 136, 123, 139
Ryan's ERA+ for same ages:
128, 124, 119, 103, 100, 141, 98, 114, 98, 194, 105, 115
That's Glavine 10, Ryan 1
But I think the opposing manager would manage differently if they saw JD Drew in the on deck circle, rather than say anyone else on our team.
Irregardless (sic) 56, I'm glad to hear that Yakface was animate 47. Even if Nolan Ryan is the most overrated pitcher of his era (which spanned about 3 regular eras). Exciting, sure, but not even in the conversation of all-time greats.
More pitchers had similarly low ERAs in Ryan's day?
...is a bit of a contradiction to...
"I know, I'm rearranging Stonehenge here, but I thought it an interesting notion."
Try again.
I make a proposal, which I understand from the start would be a major change.
Reaction to the proposal is unenthusiastic, which I accept. It was just a notion.
I don't see why, if I throw a radical proposal out there for feedback, I should have to endorse every other radical proposal.
Career ERA+: Glavine 121, Ryan 112.
Winning Pct.: Glavine .605, Ryan .526.
Cy Young Awards: Glavine 2, Ryan 0.
Seasons with >130 ERA+: Glavine 8, Ryan 4.
All-Star Appearances: Glavine 9, Ryan 8.
20-win seasons: Glavine 5, Ryan 2.
Ryan has longevity, and strikeouts, if you like flashiness. Otherwise it's really no contest.
By the way, the Dodgers team ERA since Jon issued the Roadrunner Challenge: 0.00
I think strikeouts are more than flash - they're a real point in Ryan's favor. Of course, if you count the strikeouts, you have to penalize him for the walks. He walked 200 in a season twice, for crying out loud.
I don't think winning percentage means much in this context, and am not sure that Cy Young or All-Star recognition does either.
I think ERA+ is the key stat here, and the one that points toward Glavine's favor. However, here's one more thing to consider. Ryan had 18 seasons of above-average ERA+; Glavine has 13. That 18 is a pretty amazing number.
I agree with your first point, too.
It's hilarious.
ERA+ also compares a pitcher's ERA to how the league overall did.
For example in 1930, Dazzy Vance of the Dodgers had a 2.61 ERA. You think, "well that's pretty good". But then you see that the NL as a whole had an ERA of 4.92. Then you realize that Vance was really, really good. His ERA+ in 1930 was 189. But in 1928, his ERA was 2.09 and the league ERA was 3.98 and his ERA+ was 191, which is the best in Dodgers franchise history.
The best ERA+ for Koufax was 190 in 1966.
I won't touch the Abe Lincoln thing for fear of igniting a political discussion here, but as far as pitching goes.
Some eras do have higher scoring than others. It's unfair to penalize a pitcher for pitching in an era in which there is more offense.
It is safe to say, hypothetically or not, that if Tom Glavine had pitched in the 70s, when scoring in general was down in baseball compared to today, his career ERA would be lower.
51 maybe if they had rocket packs, izturis or robles might actually be able to steal a base sometime.
As a proud owner of a Free Hee Seop t-shirt, I will point out that Choi posted the following line in Florida in 2004:
95 games, .270 / .388 / .495
That stretch continues to be the only time in his brief career that he has been given regular, consistent playing time. I'd take that any day, and I wish Karros was that good as a Dodger.
Karros surpassed that only once (145 in his best season, 1995), and was close once (131 in 1999).
http://www.cafepress.com/freeheeseop
i'm upstate, at syracuse. there are a remarkable number of attractive women on campus here, and the ratio is totally skewed too. so at least the odds are in my favor.
Really?
Must not have been the same Syracuse I visited. Or maybe the lighting was bad.
hah, weren't we talking about hee seop choi a couple minutes ago?
I'm still amazed that anyone thinks Choi failed in Chicago and Florida. If he failed so miserably in Chicago why was he traded for the great Derreck Lee. Florida must have seen something that year in Chicago that they liked and it surely wasn't Eric Karros.
While Glavine should get the nod as the more consistent pitcher, I'd take the Express on a day he was on over just about anyone. He was probably the most enjoyable pitcher from a fans perspective to watch that I've ever seen. No one paid to watch Glavine pitch but alot of people paid to watch Ryan pitch.
E Jackson is going to throw a gem tonight. He's going to struggle in the beginning and then lights out.
Syracuse used to be where the majority of America's caskets were manufactured.
See all the fun places I go: the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum, the Historical Museum of Syracuse... It goes on and on and on.
I passed on the Museum of Surveying when I was in Lansing, MI.
I designed the original "Free Milton" shirt following his suspension last September. I designed some "Free Hee" shirts but back-burnered them at Jon's request until we got some DT shirts going. So, the stuff on Cafepress isn't me, but I'll take credit for having the vision to do my own design, even if it languishes on my computer.
My version, which I made a couple months ago, can be viewed here:
http://vivalosdodgers.com/freehee.html
Jaxx shortstop Ryan Theirot was promoted to the non-contending Cubs. His team-high .304 average will be replaced by Carlos Rojas (.244 in A ball).
The local press has a potentially biased position-by-position rundown
http://jacksonsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050913/SPORTS/509130312/1006
I'm wondering if/how they got a license to use the official 'Dodgers' logo on the shirt. Small-time guys like me have to be careful about stuff like that.
Perhaps Drew McCourt is making a little money on the side by granting copyright releases to himself and his frieds.
Of course, I don't know Tim Hudson, Brad Radke, Roger Clemens, or Matt Clement personally like Bob does.
I wish we had gone hard after D Lee when everyone knew the Marlins werent' going to sign him and they were going to trade him in his walk year. I love players who get better every year.
Tim Hudson is from the same town in which Jackson was raised (Jackson was born on a U.S. military base in Germany), Columbus, Georgia (in fact, Hudson has employed Jackson as in instructor at his baseball camp for kids in Columbus), and everybody knew from the beginning that Hudson wanted to "go home" to Georgia and sign long-term with Atlanta. Trading a pitcher with Jackson's ace ceiling for a one-year-rental of Hudson would have been unbelievably stupid, basically a firing offense for any GM, and it is reassuring to know that DePodesta never even contemplated it.
But to give up 2 young players for a rental doesn't work for me.
Everything I write that isn't a fact is my opinion.
Hudson has a VORP of 38 this year. Jorge Sosa who was acquired in a very minor deal with TB has a VORP higher then any Dodger at 35. Just another pitcher I forgot to add to last nights list of very good pitchers who were acquired on the cheap.
Not sure why your sold on A Perez. There is nothing in his background that suggests he will be a successful starting infielder at the ML level. He has utility player written all over him.
What if we give you the GM Employee Discount?
Syracuse are not attractive at all. From my memories of the late '90's, they were nearly as ugly as the girls of Georgetown.
Does anyone else see the similarity between the hot start of Aybar and the hot start that A Perez had when he 1st rejoined the team after his rehab? After bashing opponents silly he was quickly benched. Could the same future hold true for Aybar?
Anyone taking bets that Jason Philips starts tonight?
131 Thank heavens. I've been needing a hyperbole fix today, and there it is.
119 I'm thinking of buying tickets to one of the Suns' games in Jackson, Tenn., this weekend. Pringles Park (yes, named after the chips) is a nice little stadium, and I'm eager to see this powerhouse of a team (the Suns) play.
No I don't think Aybar is better then Tom Glavine:)
It is called luck. Right now he's hitting in good luck, soon he will be hitting in bad luck unless he starts hitting some line drives.
I hate it when someone beats me to a great line.
Volvo gets my money, as they also toss in a steam bath with a leggy blonde named Inga.
"Aybar was signed with much fanfare in '01 out of the Dominican Republic. He hasn't lived up to expectations yet, but he's still only 22 years-old. The switch-hitter has an outstanding eye at the plate and added more power to his game in '04 in Double-A. However, he hasn't shown much power in '05 despite playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Aybar is a career .254 hitter, but gets on base at a solid clip. He makes good, consistent contact and can hit to both gaps, resulting in a lot of doubles. The amount of potential long ball power is questionable, but he should be able to hit 10-15 in the big leagues with some changes in his approach. Aybar can be too passive at the plate and often gets behind in the count. He needs to become more aggressive and pounce on pitches in his zone regardless of the count. He could also benefit by improving his ability to pull inside pitches. As a defender, Aybar is a solid-average 2B with good range. He has more than enough arm and has soft hands. Aybar has played mostly 3B in his career, but was moved to 2B in '04. Because of the lack of power, he could be a solid utility player and could even see some time at SS. The Dodgers have a lot of depth in the minors so Aybar will have some stiff competition over the next few seasons."
Despite our good seats only one foul ball came our way and a kid with a glove snagged it.
I was very grateful that kid had a glove because I didn't want to have to try to catch that ball.
It was actually a screaming line drive.
It would have been awkward.
To clarify I was using the cellphone to get updates on college football scores, I wasn't talking to anyone on it.
http://tinyurl.com/8ubj2
The name Koufax has the same flavor as Drysdale and Billingsley?
184- Is that the lady that like her coffee black? And yeh the name has the same flavor, say the names together they comliment eachother, Koufax, Drysdale, Billingsly, Broxton, just the sounds of those names are tough, it makes you think they chew metal and spit nails.
Increasingly up-close intimate seats + fans not inclined to pay attention to the game = asking for trouble.
So, Yak, which pitchers have the least intimidating names? Ron Darling? Tim Belcher? Jake Peavy? (Yhency? Duaner? Onan Masaoka?)
ERA shmeee RA
77. Yakface
Ryans Career ERA is 3.19 Glavines is 3.46.
Sort of an update on the Hochevar saga. For what it's worth I believe Garth.
Drysdale has the flavor of a relaxing martini.
Boy, no kidding. One served on the 19th hole of an exclusive country club.
198 - Howard, that's exactly right!
http://tinyurl.com/doqzl
Marvel rules and I'm 46.
197
I agree, I picture someone wearing thick horn rimmed glasses.
Odalis is not exactly scary. Oh, O Dal Is can you take out the trash, dear.
Jack Billingsley and Bruce Broxton. Now those are names that'll give you nightmares.
Donovan Osborne. There's a pitcher's name if there ever was one.
Good friend of mine raised his two kids without TV. Great kid, hit college and boom, he's now 23 and still trying to figure out where he fits in.
A: Because he belongs in Washington!
(rim shot)
OT, has anyone posted/commented on the fact the Angels have drafted at least 3 younger brothers of Dodgers? Maicer Izturis, Jared Weaver, and Erick Aybar. Are there any more? Is this a trend? A coincidence? A deep-seated issue coming to light? Hopefully, they will all turn out to be Michael Garciaparras.
Players we lose next year
1. Weaver 8 Mill
2. Erickson 525,000(how was he signed for more then the minimum. Still shaking my head.)
3. Alvarez 2 Mill
4. Bradley 2.5 Mill
5. Bako 650,000
6. Green 10 Mill
7. Dreifort 5 Mill
8. Jose Valentin 3.5 Mill
That is around 32 million to come off the books. So if Depo really has 100 Mill to work with then he will have roughly 44 Mill to fill in the missing pieces. Since Dreifort and Green are only on the books, he has 44 Mill for 6 players. That is some serious financial flexibility.
We need
1. Two corner outfielders assuming Drew plays center.
2. Pitcher
3. 3rd baseman
4. SS
I think our bullpen is set.
1st - Choi
2nd - Kent
SS - Robles/Izzy?
3b - Aybar/A Perez?
C - Navarro/Philips
RF - ?
CF - Drew
LF - ?
Other - Ledee/Werth/Repko/Edwards
Maybe Milton but doesn't seem possible he will be back.
Rotation-Lowe/Penny/OP/Houlton/Jackson
Bullpen -Gagne/Sanchez/Kuo/Broxton/Wunsch/Brazoban
That could be a great bullpen. Rotation could be scary bad if we didn't make any changes. I could live with the current infield if we got some nice corner outfielders.
I do remember one game he won with his bat, so I'll just have to be satified with that.
Quite a contrast to the days of Brock and Marshall, who seemed to think the hype they generated gave them a punched ticket no matter how they played.
I do think your right as far as minor league hitters are conserned. From low-A through AA, the farm system consists of environments friendly to pitchers. This is probably causing some of the hitters to become underrated, and some of the pitchers to become overrated. A guy like aybar, whos strengths include putting the ball in play and some doubles power, is very likely to be underrated by these ballparks/leagues. Im very interested to see how the current Jacksonvill Suns squad does next year in Las Vegas.
I can't say that name without the Long Island lockjaw intonation.
Oh, who are we kidding? Nobody's going to top this:
http://tinyurl.com/ao8j9
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