Jeff Weaver's given up 33 Homers this year. I dont think he's coming back next year.

4+ ERA innings eaters can be had for a lot less than 9-10 mils.

I agree with you, Oldbear. My point is that if Tracy treated Weaver less like an innings eater and more like someone who should be pulled when trouble's brewing, whenever it's brewing, everyone might be happier.

Someone's been eating his Wheaties.

Was just stunned to see that Hershiser was still pitching in 2000; hadn't recalled that at all. So I look up his page at baseball reference for fun, and see that it is sponsored by Dave Velazquez. Dave writes: "I've always admired The Bulldog. His scoreless innings streak (59 IP!) in 1988 was simply amazing. Along with my favorite position player ever (Don Mattingly), Orel may not be a HOF'er, but my respect for his game is at the highest level."

Do people agree that Orel Hershiser is not a Hall of Famer? Maybe I'm a total homer, but doesn't one season like Hershiser's 1988 get you into the Hall?

Interesting. None of the people hit in 2003 are still with the team.

3

"No," Roger Maris said.

3 "No" Bert Blyleven said

As a postscript, right on cue, I saw this from Jim Baker on Baseball Prospectus.

"Andruw Jones might be having the worst season ever for a player with 50 or more home runs. Using EqA adjusted for historical context, these are the lowest figures ever for 50-homer guys:

.305: Andruw Jones, 2005
.309: Sammy Sosa, 1999
.317: Greg Vaughn, 1998
.320: Sammy Sosa, 1998
.325: Roger Maris, 1961

Yes, that is Roger Maris on there. You shouldn't be too surprised. Most people long ago realized that Mickey Mantle had a better year than did Maris (Mantle's EqA that year was .369)."

I was looking at Hershiser's stats just now and had forgotten he had three decent years with Cleveland after the Dodgers. He also spent a year with the Giants in 1998 that I'd forgotten about. I must really lose interest in players after they leave L.A.

2 - I would be happier.

4 The only non-pitcher left from 2003 is Izturis.

3 - A big "no."

First, one great season is not nearly enough to get one in the Hall of Fame. Pete Reiser and Norm Cash and Cy Seymour are on the outside looking in, and rightly so.

Second, most Dodger fans would be surprised that their memories conflict with the facts regarding Hershiser's 1988 season, which was outstanding but not historic in any way other than the streak and the postseason.

In fact, a strong argument can be made that Hershiser was not the best pitcher in the National League in 1988. His ERA was third-best in the NL, his ERA+ fourth-best.

Actually, 1988 wasn't really even close to being Hershiser's best season. (That would be 1985 -- 172 ERA+ compared to 148 in 1988.)

Had to mention that I was listening to the Joe McDonnel show on ESPN radio 710AM on your dial yesterday afternoon (I don't know why I torture myself!) and there was a caller who said he was fed up with Jim Tracy. I thought to myself, this is going to be a great call, finally the voice of reason has broken through. My hopes were soon dashed when Joe asked him why he was fed up. The callers reason? He said Jim Tracy DOESN'T BUT ENOUGH! Doesn't bunt enough? Ok, maybe he mispoke and meant to say Tracy bunts TOO much. Nope! He pointed to a recent game where the Dodgers got a leadoff double by CruzJr and Navarro should've been bunting him over to 3rd. But in the end there was no bunt and CruzJr was LOB. Then Joe actually agreed, and said he didn't know what Tracy was thinking. I felt like I was in the bizzaro world. Up is down, good is bad, left is right, Tracy is God. vr, Xei

3. Speaking of Wheaties...on a trip down the cereal aisle yesterday, I couldn't help but notice the front of the Wheaties box, which showed a triumphant Kirk Gibson circa October 1988. It's probably been 20 years since I tried the stuff, but I'll confess I snagged a box. I'm a marketer's dream, I tell you. (Two more confessions: (1) The back of the box describes the context of the homerun, and includes the Vin Scully line about how "All year long they looked to him to light the fire and all year long he delivered..." Just reading that gave me chills. (2) I took an extra minute to find the box that was in the best condition. You know, in case I want to put it on the wall or something. :))

5, 11 I knew when writing that you fact guys were gonna stir up trouble. Granting all your well-taken points, it still makes me happy to think of Hershiser reeling off all those scoreless innings/games. I guess I'll just put him in the Sam DC personal memory hall of fame (Bob Welch is in there too). Everyone should have one.

4

All the batters hit in 2003 were hit with a magic baseball that made them disappear.

It just took a while for Mike Kinkade to get the message.

Its frustrating to chart data that way and find it doesn't lead to a clear conclusion. Good stuff never the less. Also I've always considered home park effects very subtle and mysterious. It will take a while to see the affect if any, but it's even possible that after the seat additions we may no longer have a pitchers park.

Also, Chin-Feng Chen played for the 2003 and 2005 Dodgers.

From pitches 1-90, opponents are only .275/.419/.694.

So Weaver's OPS allowed is 1.113 before 90 pitches and only .867 after? He's actually better after 90 pitches? Am I reading this wrong? How does his ERA stay under 5 with numbers like these?

11 I'd agree that one great season is not enough, and that Orel's not HOF material. But I wouldn't downplay his '88 season. True, 1985 was better, and you probably could make an argument for some other pitcher being better than Hershiser was, but the ERA+ numbers certainly don't tell the whole story. First, two of those three guys ahead of Orel only threw 160 innings that year; John Tudor came in at just under 200, while Hershiser totalled 267. And of course, Orel's '88 season has to be evaluated in light of his continued dominance during the postseason.

18. You are reading this wrong. Those figures were OBP/SLG/OPS. Note the parallel structure with the previous sentence ...

It is very confusing, though, since the standard syntax generally goes BA/OBP/SLG/.

21. Not on this site, though, since I pretty much never use batting average. But I apologize for the confusion.

19
I'm not trying to downplay Orel's 1988 season, just trying to prevent any overglorification of it. I was 11 years old and it's a childhood memory I wouldn't trade for anything. But if we believe in cold, clear consideration of the facts without regard to emotion, then Orel's 1988 was not really as special as we'd like to remember. The last two months of his season certainly were, but not the season as a whole.

FWIW, Danny Jackson in 1988 either bested or tied Hershiser in wins, winning percentage, ERA, and complete games while pitching a comparable amount of innings. He just didn't get as much TV face time in October as Orel did.

23
On the other hand, that face time Orel got in 1988 is certainly one thing in his favor regarding Hall of Fame voters, who tend to put a lot of emphasis on October TV time. There are only a few pitchers in the HOF with careers demonstrably worse than Hershiser's, and many of those are there because they became famous in October. (i.e., Dizzy Dean, Catfish Hunter)

For me, Hershiser is one of those almost-but-not-quite Hall of Famers. I wouldn't vote for him, but it wouldn't be a disgrace to Cooperstown or anything if he got in.

Thanks for clearing that up. The slashes in the second part threw off my normally excellent parallel structure detector.

And with that, I have removed the offending slashes.

Poor Hershiser -- his 19-3, 2.03 season in 1985 was arguably only the third best of the year (after Gooden and John Tudor). And, of course, 1985 ended so bitterly for the Dodgers (that was the first full season I rooted for them, and what a kick in the gut that damn Jack Clark homer was).

Orel will have to make the Hall of Fame as a manager.

Does Orel want the Pittsburgh job?

Well, he's a smart guy, so my guess is no.

29 -- But he must, everyone else does.

29 Hey, if he gets in quick enough, he can back at Dodger Stadium by the weekend.

Hey, if he gets in quick enough, he can back at Dodger Stadium by the weekend.

And he can pick up three easy wins right off the bat.

33 -- The "Buddy Bell Strategy"

27 Tom Niedenfeur...very high on the hated list

35 - Now I only slightly followed the Dodgers in '85 (I was 10), but shouldn't you put most of the blame on Lasorda for that situation?

Wasn't 1B open, and 2 outs?

Oh, I blame Lasorda for that too. As well as many other things. But he didn't tell Niedenfuer "pipe one down the middle so we can get out of here"

Who gave up the "Go crazy, folks" HR to Ozzie Smith?

38 - Niedenfeur gave up two big ones (I can't recall the other one), maybe he gave up that one also.

I thought they came in seperate years though.

#13, Paul B, regarding the Gibson Wheaties Box, I hope you have had a chance to see the t.v. commercial that goes with it. I will see if I can describe it for you. A guy with a gimpy leg steps up to the plate hitting left handed in a slow pitch softball game, and he hits one over the fence in right, with Vin's call of the Gibson homerun as the soundtrack, perfectly coordinated to the at bat of the softball homerun hitter. Whoever put that commercial together deserves some sort of emmy or whatever is the top award is for a t.v. commercial. I have only seen it once on ESPN. I hope Wheaties puts it on FOX in the post season so I can tape it. I can't think of any other commercial I have wanted to tape for posterity.

Stan from Tacoma

38 - Nope. Niedenfeur both times.

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/VLAN21985.htm

I'm somewhat embarrassed to admit that I own not only two Wheaties boxes (those with Gibson and J.Robinson on them), but also a box of Corn Flakes from 1982 with Fernando on the front.

My other favorite sports team (UTEP basketball) just got put on a Wheaties box, too, so I guess I'll have to get that one also.

I have a box of oat bran that's probably ten years old. But it's because I don't eat cereal very often.

22 I don't think we disagree much, if at all. I guess I'd be more willing to label Orel's season as great, at least in part for the pesky intangibles, buty I'll admit that may be partly the fan speaking. The comparison to Danny Jackson is illustrative (I'd totally forgotten about that guy, and didn't remember his stats being that good), though I think Orel clearly would get the nod since their counting stats are stats are essentially identical and Orel has a decisive edge in ERA+

Sam, you might use this interesting factoid if you want to campaign for Orel's spot in the HOF: while his numbers from '85 shine, compared to the rest of the league he was actually best from 87-89, when he led NL hurlers each year in Win Shares. That puts him in a group with, among others, Steve Carlton, Bob Gibson, Greg Madux, Pedro Martinez. Koufax, by comparison, managed the feat only twice.

Check it out: http://tinyurl.com/d95o3

As Rob Neyer said, here: http://tinyurl.com/86d5m,

Orel's spot in history might seem different
to the average fan if he had bookended his '88 Cy Young with awards in '87 and '89 as well. Interesting.

40 I have seen that ad a couple of times. It really is a great one (it gave me chills too), wand is very well done technically. I have to admit though, I was so caught up in reliving the Gibson shot that I didn't even remember that was a Wheaties commercial! So maybe it's too effective for its own good.

42 I think somewhere I have a Wheaties box with Steve Largent (!) on it. It was a gift from an uncle of mine who lived in Tacoma.

43 I'd hate to think what a 10-year old box of bran would do to your innards, Marty.

42 I had a box of those Fernando Corn Flakes in '82. I ate them, though.

I can't mention '82 anymore without thinking of Uncle Rico from Napolean Dynamite.

AP is saying that if the White Sox finalize their melt down it will be the biggest lead blown ever. They had a 15 game lead August 1. I didn't realize that. I liked this quote from a Chisox bar:

"It's like they lost their chemistry," patron Sarah Grady said

At least they didn't break their Olmedo.

On a sleepy Tuesday, this will be the Game Chat thread.

50 Game Chat? We're still playing? Oh yeah...

51 - I know. With the rain and the 48 hours since the last game, it almost seems like the offseason, doesn't it?

If Tracy leaves, one of the potential replacements that has been mentioned is Angels pitching coach Bud Black.

I don't know how feasible this is, since Frank McCourt probably wants to win soon--and this probably won't be possible with a rookie manager.

Assuming that the Bud Black rumors turn out to be true, I think a major plus is that the handling of the pitchers would improve tremendously.

52 Sigh. Spring training seems a long ways away, but I could use the time I spend on the Dodgers on other things.

Speaking of the offseason, and I've only been around DT since maybe March of this year, what happens around here during the off season? Occasional updates? Winter meeting updates? Closed til spring?

54 - We're open for business.

54 You will be shocked and awed at how little changes. Except on days like the "we didn't sign Betlre" day where you will be shocked and awed for other reasons.

You all remember "Betlre" -- just don't mix up the letters in his name or he'll drop 25 homers off his prior year and add 60 strikeouts.

I suspect the seventh day after the season ends may generate a lot of comments.

I don't know how feasible this is, since Frank McCourt probably wants to win soon--and this probably won't be possible with a rookie manager.

Bob Brenly would disagree with that statement.

58 - hopefully they're the joyous kind

56 Now I'm curious. I hope I can find it in the archives.

I suspect the seventh day after the season ends may generate a lot of comments.

If what I want to happen happens, it's party time. One of my favorite blogs may go out of business, however.

62 - i don't see why. a simple name change should suffice; how hard would it be for steve and jerry to just rechristen it Fire [New Guy]? :)

A co-worker mentioned this morning that the Dodgers had home World Series games rained out in either '59 or one of the series in the 60s. Obviously today's unusual weather brought it to mind. Anyone know which year that was, or how you look up information like that? Retrosheet?

61 - Around December 16-17, 2004. But for the comments, you have to go to all-baseball.com/dodgerthoughts.

36 37
FWIW, Bill James went through the numbers and picked apart that decision in the Abstract (I think it was the '86). He concluded emphatically that pitching Niedenfeuer to Clark was the correct decision compared to the most obvious alternative: walking Clark and bringing in Jerry Reuss to pitch to van Slyke. Lasorda ever after regretted the decision. But James defended it on the grounds that it made sense based on the available objective evidence; "It just didn't work."

65 I'm re-reading the comments from the Beltre Incident of 12/16. It's very interesting re-looking at what people had to say then within the context of what's happened since. One poster said we MUST get Milton to salvage the offseason. Or that we need to throw 90 million at Beltran. Hindsight's a wonderful thing.

54. Rumor has it that Dodger Thoughts turns into Movie Thoughts. 24 hours of movie and tv show blogging. Can't wait! :) vr, Xei

67 One post ridiculed the blindness of Depo backers, quoting their support of a hypothetical trade of Bradley and Kent to Milwaukee for Carlos Lee and Brooks Kieshnick.

I had to look up Kieschnick's '05 numbers (there are none) to determine it would've been a slightly bad trade for the Dodgers.

But yeah, it's fun to read and it's nice to see the DT voices of reason are still around...

67 Given Beltre's stats this year (to date), Howard Fox is looking particularly prescient.

69 Kieschnick did a decent job hitting in Round Rock, Houston could have used his bat with all their shutouts (Milwaukee released him if you didn't notcie). However he was an awfaul pitcher, which is what the Astros wanted of him. I think he was also hurt for a large portion of the season

5.72 ERA in 56.2 IP, 13 HR, 26 BB, 34 K, but in a limited 46 ABs, .304/.407/543 with 3 HR. He also played for Corpus Christi, but those stats are negligible

54 Actually, I found the off-season banter on DT even more fun that much of the in-season stuff. I'm less interested in dissecting things game-by-game (and with some folks, pitch by pitch), and more intersted in the big picture. So in many way, the Hot Stove League is more fun than the season itself. Possibly one reason for that is that it's the GM's time to shine, and the manager can't screw anything up before Spring Training.

So is Bonds back on the roids? Somebody needs to go "knee hunting" on him.

I like Shock and Awe.
I like Ock and Shaw.
Wait. Isn't Ockandshaw where Clill Binton is from.

70 I was going to say the same thing. DodgerKid was particularly impressive.

The Dodgers team era might be thirteenth but i'd be willing to bet their starters are ranked much better than their bullpen if it were broken down into those categories.

My favorite was DodgerLawyer. I really miss him/her.

77 He may still be here, under a different handle.

I'm also surprised there were no comments from me. I must have been back on the opiates.

Random Dodger Game Callback

September 20, 1887

There didn't seem to be much interest in Maryland as Baltimore defeated Brooklyn 6-3 at Oriole Park in a game shortened to 6 ½ innings by darkness. The loss dropped Brooklyn to 55-66 for the season and the team was 34 ½ games behind the first place St. Louis Browns, who had clinched the American Association pennant.

Brooklyn manager Charlie Byrne started a rookie, Bert Cunningham, on the mound. Cunningham would join Baltimore in 1888 and would pitch in the majors until 1901. Cunningham pitched fairly well, but was betrayed by his defense as six Brooklyn errors made all of Baltimore's runs unearned.

Baltimore scored twice in the first and again in the second to make it 3-0. Brooklyn managed to tie the game up in the third, but Baltimore scored three times in the sixth and after Brooklyn failed to score in the seventh, umpire Jerry Sullivan called the game on account of darkness.

The teams didn't mind as both teams as Brooklyn had to head back home to play a game at home the next day. The game story in the Brooklyn told which ferry the team was taking the next day.

The box scores in the Brooklyn Eagle and New York Times didn't agree on how many hits each team had, reflecting the peculiar scoring rules of 1887. The Eagle gave Brooklyn four hits and Baltimore seven. The Times gave each team credit for nine hits. The discrepancy was due, for the most part, to a decision by baseball scorekeepers to credit batters with a hit and at bat for every walk. However, the Eagle only recorded hits made by batting the ball. Walks were still listed separately. Other papers of the era would talk about hits and "true hits".

Because walks were counted as hits, batting averages in the majors went way up. St. Louis outfielder Tip O'Neill had an American Association record single season batting average of .435. O'Neill also led the AA in home runs with 14 and RBI with 123 and slugged .691. Dan Brouthers led the NL with a .426 batting average. In 1888, O'Neill would lead the AA again in batting, but with only a .335 average.

Scoring was very high in this era. St. Louis led the majors with 1132 runs scored. Brooklyn scored 906 runs, fourth best in the league. However the team finished with a 60-74 record, 34 ½ games behind St. Louis and in sixth place.

Despite walks being counted as hits, Brooklyn's team batting average was just .261. And no regular hit better than shortstop Germany Smith, who batted .294.

1887 would be the least year in charge for Charlie Byrne. A new manager, Bill McGunnigle would take over and good times would be arriving in Brooklyn.
Thanks to the Brooklyn Eagle, New York Times, Retrosheet, and Baseball-Reference.com

Bob, what happened to that Baltimore team? Go out of business or become a different team?

The Orioles eventually joined the NL in 1892 and were absorbed into the Dodgers more or less after the 1899 season. The process actually started in 1899 since the teams had the same owener.

I'm also surprised there were no comments from me. I must have been back on the opiates.

Send some of those up here. Looking back, I wish I'd stayed out of a lot of those heated debates. We were all wrong in the end.

Now I'm just here to make people (or myself) laugh. I'm the court jester.

Icaros dresses like Matthew Lesko.

76 -

Dodger starters ERA: 4.45, 10th in NL
Dodger relievers ERA: 4.53, 11th in NL

73. Tonya Harding and Geoff Gillooi. Paging Tonya Harding and Geoff Gillooi to the Giants Locker Room please.

83 Looks like he bought that costume off the guy who played The Riddler on the Batman TV show and painted it Lakers colors.

cleveland up early,
against mark buerhle.

86 I bet Lesko has made millions with that Frank Gorshin-Dr. Buss suit.

We were all wrong in the end.

But not about Jeff Kent.

89 No, that's the one we got right.

And I still think Lowe has worked out so far. We'll see how the next three years go.

90 -- Not that that wasn't cherry-picking or anything. But there you go.

Rox 2, Padres 0 in the 1st

Whoops, 3-0 Rox.

It's 4-0 Rockies and I will cease giving updates for a while....

Not Woody's best start but they are in Col. so it ain't over til its over.

Livan Hernandez has been able to solve the baffling puzzle that is Randy Winn.

Since Brian Lawrence got knocked out early yesterday (replaced by Park), I have a feeling that Woody Williams is taking one for the team tonight.

81"since the teams had the same owener."

Interesting Freudian typo on the last word there, Bob. Or good pun, one or the other. I'm surprised Plaschke hasn't come up with that one yet to describe McCourt.

Then again, that may be making unwarranted assumptions about his facility with language.

Or "w" and "e" are next to each other on the keyboard.

Sox just tied Clev 3-3, juan uribe single

119 pitches for Livan. Bonds up. Runner on. 2 outs.

If you're Frank Robinson, what do you do?

After waking up that is...

Will Robinson bring in the left-hander to intentionally walk Bonds? The world is on the edge of its seat.

"Hey, Skip, did you know Bonds was up?"

"What the .... Challenge his bat. Didn't Guillen tell me it was corked?"

Mostly the same lineup as Sunday for the Dodgers except Phillips is catching tonight.

Moises jimmy jack

So does Tracy know the season is over? Apparently not

3B Aybar
SS Robles
2B Kent
1B Saenz
RF Cruz
LF Edwards
C Phillips
CF Werth
P Lowe

Looks the Padres magic number is not changing tonight.

You can go back to sleep now, Frank. Nothing to see here.

Wilson, Castilla, and Schneider due up in the 9th for the Nats.

Someone should have given Frank Robinson the memo that your pitcher walking Omar Vizquel is a bad thing.

We're up against

2B Counsell
RF Tracy
LF Gonzalez
1B Clark
3B Glaus
CF Green
SS Cintron
C Stinnett
P Vargas

11 Np idea where I got Vargas from, it's Vazquez

111
There is a Vargas on Arizona, so it's understandable.

If Schneider gets on, it's hero time for Cristian Guzman!

Any possible way we sign Hershiser to be manager? That'd be a good PR move, if anything. Don't know how Hershiser manages, but he'd have credibility and would work well with pitchers and definitely know when to pull them better than JT. Wonder if DePo is considering that move...

Bases drunk for the Nats in the 9th.

4-3 Giants with 2 outs.

No joy in the Nation's Capital.

Giants 4, Nats 3 - Final.

I sense disinterest.

Or maybe everybody is just eating dinner.

Just give up the grand slam Derek and be done with it!

118 I sense disinterest.

Uh, Go Blue! Yeah, that's it.

Do whatever it takes to make Tracy want to go elsewhere for next season!

Just realized, mike edwards is basically jose macias. Both can play 3rd, and the outfield without looking stupid, and can hit about .250/.300/.350. Pretty much utterly useless, but get playing time because of the "versitility" of playing both the infield and outfield, despite the fact that he sucks at pretty much everything.

Time for one of those Shawn Green 4-6-3 DPs.

or a slam

Pretty much utterly useless, but get playing time because of the "versitility" of playing both the infield and outfield, despite the fact that he sucks at pretty much everything.

The role made famous by Scott Spiezio and, latterly, Chone Figgins. Except that they're higher on the scrap meter.

121 "Both can play 3rd, and the outfield without looking stupid"

Edwards looks pretty bad playing in the field

Lowe has absolutely no control, I guess the good Lowe is gone... :(

Chone Figgins is a lot more valuable than Mike Edwards.

124 Speizio has pretty much completely fallen off any type of scrap meater. He's officially on the crap meter, and it's pretty high. He hit like .025 this year

Just put the ball in play already, this is getting boring

Yowch - 40 pitches so far this inning.

Not only will Shawn Green beat us, he will annoy us too.

I blame this completely on Navarro, which I guess means its his new baby's fault. Navarro's wife chose a bad time to give birth

[Tom Slick crowd]

Yea

[/Tom Slick crowd]

Padres on the board at Coors. They trail 15-1.

Cleveland leads Chicago 5-3 in the 7th.

Did you see Figgins on that ITPHR hit by, uh, Detroit(?) the other day? He jumped for it about 8 feet to the side of where it hit the wall. He's fast, but he's no OFer. NOt much of an arm either. He's a good utility guy to have around, but he's no great shakes. And yeah, that's completely consistent with being "a lot more valuable than Mike Edwards."

I was hoping for a Leiter/Ishii 50 pitch, 1 run inning. That 0-2 made it so much harder...

DL might not make it out of the 1st inning. 47 pitches and counting.

134

Perhaps I don't think Mike Edwards is very valuable at all. So it's not hard to be a "lot more valuable" than him.

The Reds beat the Cardinals and avoided being eliminated from the playoffs today.

well, there went the magic of the "moving to the other side of the rubber" trick.

16 more and Vazquez ties the Arizona record for Ks!

15 more for the record!

Houston polishes off Pittsburgh 7-4 to keep its 1-game lead in the wild card.

Phillies are getting shut out in Atlanta and the Marlins are in extra innings in New York.

Werth should move Vazquez 2 or 3 notches closer to the record.

Attention: All those getting off the Derek Lowe Bandwagon exit on the right side please. Do not exit until the bandwagon comes to a full and complete stop.

Looks like it will soon be time for Edwin Jackson to step into the breach.

Or maybe Broxton.

Or maybe Schmoll.

I really dislike Counsell

So this is what it sounds like when doves cry?

Chicago takes the lead 6-5 on a Pierzynski double and then a sac fly by Rowand compounded by an error by Jose Hernandez.

Did Lowe go back to the other side of the rubber? Or does he have a blister? Hughes leave him? Is Lowe pitching?

I don't have that much of a problem with Lowe stinking it up after a few great outings. I just hope they don't let him stay out there and give up 6 or 7 runs. Though, what does it really matter anymore.

Pierzynski was a guy mentioned a lot of times in those December comments as someone we MUST get. How's he doing this year?

Maybe this will arouse some interest, at least into the suprisingly rare question; "why do the dodgers stink"

WXRL-ExpectedWinsOverReplacementRelievers
wxrl 2002-04AVE 2005
Gagne 8.500 1.078
TEAM 16.665 4.832

Reliever WARP3
2004=21.8 WARP3 (gagne 7.0)
2005=8.5 WARP3 (gagne 1.0)

Bullpen ARP-Adjusted Runs Prevented
2002-04AVE=86.2 (gagne 32.9)
2005=-4.6 (gagne 2.8)

This year the bullpen was 11.833 wxrl, or 13.3 warp, or 90.8 apr worse than the last couple years. Thats an average of 11.4 wins lost this year due to the bullpen, eleven and a half wins. Gagne's absence accounts for an average of 47% of the decline.

Lets round that number DOWN to 11 wins, seing as how their are two weeks left in the season. All else being the same this season, but giving back our bullpen from recent years, the Dodger record would be 78-71 and on pace for a pace for a 85 win season.

If you were to compare that to Tracy's misques, i cant imagine that even tracy's most fervent critics(steve) would believe that tracy is more responsible that the bullpen for this years disaster, or even close. Rather than complaining about the rotation or offense as many have, most (about 2/3) of this years decline can be counted towards the bullpen. Considering all the injuries, i think the rotation and offense have been perfectly fine. Its the bullpen that is to blame

what does it really matter anymore.

OVER?! It isn't over until WE say it is.

C'mon, we don't want the Naccarato Prophecy to be realized. Gotta beat the DBax.

151 Don't let the homers fool you, he's only marginally better than Phillips. He's never had this many homers in his life and his arm still sucks (although Phillips is worse). More speed I guess

Unfortunately I'm moving beyond "acceptance" to "comfort" :)

We need to get Valentin in for Aybar to give Vazquez the record, I doubt Aybar will consistently struke out

Woohoo, Gagne played catch (40 "tosses"). Werth does not K, maybe Vazquez won't be able to pull it off

I would be skeptical actually if Vazquez gets over 10.

Uribe makes a pretty good throw to somehow beat Crisp to 1st. That saved a run and got the ChiSox out of the inning. Cleveland still has an inning left

152 -- I agree with virtually everything you said except for about the rotation. The rotation is a festering cesspool.

Hey Steve, you've managed to contract a rather large troll over at your site. He's impressive :)

Yes, we've drawn into a debate, at Game 150 mind you, over my "qualifications" to comment on Jim Tracy.

Given that FJT has about 12 days to live, I'd say that conversation came a little bit late.

The Yankees game finally ended. The Yankees won 12-9.

162 Well, you've never managed a major league team, so how could you possibly comment on it :)

The Al Downing method

Headline on Dodgers.com:
"If title gets out of reach, Tracy urges a fight for second"
Translation: I care more about my personal record than developing young players. Edwards, Phillips, Saenz, and Wilson Alvarez will play a lot. Choi, Antonio Perez, Kuo, and Broxton will rot on the bench/in the pen.

Marlins and Phillies lost so the Astros pick up a game in the wild card.

166
Tracy must have spent that 1% playoff share already.

Kent didn't miss that by too much

Watching the Padre game tonight (okay, only for a couple innings), made me wonder what is the most runs scored in a game by one team? Has any team scored 30? (Easy one for Bob)

26 is the record since 1900.

35 is the alltime record.

Will Alvarez become our LOOGY because Kuo "clearly" cannot handle lefty batters?

162- Don't be bitter about the starting rotation Steve.

After all, when Erickson finally gets released, he'll go back home to a stunning mansion on Lake Tahoe, where he'll spend the winter with his wife who is soon to appear in Playboy.

All we have to look forward to in a few weeks (in descending order) is 1)DT,2)over anxious posters trying to extrapolate irrelevant meanings from the Jacksonville Five's winter league stats, and 3)spending time with our families.

So much for Tracy recognizing that "the season is over" and that he should give some of the young guys a chance to play.

"We definitely have to bear in mind the fact that if you can't be first, then you want to be second," Tracy said of the Dodgers, who are two games out of second.
- LATimes

If any of you are watching the Indians game, what does Jenks have on the back of his head?

174
Check that: the source is Dodgers.com, not LATimes.

Hafner..."he gone"

2 more outs for the Indians, Peralta on 1st

This reminds of TMQ's constant diatribes against coaches who kick field goals down 28-0.

Rowand cannot catch a ball over his head, Martinez doubled. Peralta had to hold up (looked like he could catch it), so men on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out

Belliard grounds out on the first pitch, tied game

Jackson got squeezed on to 1-0 to Gonzo

Took 9 pitches, but Broussard is "he gone." There aren't many teams where I'd rather listen to the ESPN duo, but the ChiSox qualify

now pitching for san diego... SEAN BURROUGHS!!

hahahah

btw, it's 20-1 rockies

183 i'm glad they found a use for him, though. at least he can do mop-up work. burroughs' inning of work wasn't any worse than lowe's tonight :)

Konerko has a 1 out single. Why does Extra Innings hate me so much that they refuse to show Cleveland's broadcast?

I know. Burroughs can move to the other side of the mound. That's gold, Jerry! Gold!

Phillips is a speed demon

Is anybody from out of town watching this game on Extra Innings? Weird, I was at a sports bar (I'm out of the LA area) and they had the game on, I assumed since it was on at the bar, it was on EI. When I got home, it wasn't on EI, or at least my cable isn't carrying it.

Pierzynski singles, but PR Willie Harris can't advance. 1 out, men on 1st and 2nd.

Weak grounder to Boone, he barely got the out at first (the ChiSox announcers told me he was safe when he clearly wasn't)

Robles has poor instincts and no range

Rowand is hit on a 2-2 count, Uribe trying to be the hero/season savier

Uribe flies out to right, on to extra innings

Am I the only one who didn't know Drew was having surgery today?? Two none the less??

The mound robs Aybar of a hit

Boone led off with a single. Casey Blake attempted to bunt twice, fouling it both times. He's then called out looking on a ball inside. Yet again the bunt does nothing

Did Choi go up and take 6 pitches (3 balls and 3 strikes)? I guess Patient Choi is back.

Indians did very little after the single. Bottom of the 10th

Joe West is a jerk

Joe Crede absolutely crushes one, the ChiSox keep their dignity, the Indians lose a game in the WC

I'm watching it on EI (746 i think-from FSW2) I admit I haven't been paying attention.

If this is the Kuo we get next year, then Wunsch may lose his spot fairly easily

202 Looks like I jinxed him. I was hoping for a 3 batter, strike out the side. There's always next time

He K(u)O's the side

Kuo lopped 63.75 runs off his ERA. Maybe Tracy will use him more often

Kuo is a strikeout machine.

He's got to be in the pen next year, as long as his bionic elbow holds up.

I had an error in the record for runs in a game.

The NL record is 36 by Chicago over Louisville on 6/29/1887.

The AL record is 29 done by the Red Sox against St. Louis in 1950 and by the White Sox against Kansas City in 1955.

Since 1900, the NL high is 28.

Apparently, nobody remembered the RDGC for August 25.
That was the Dodgers alltime record for giving up runs in a game. They lost to the Cubs that day 28-5.

Glancing thruogh the posts-I realize I am worried about the rotation for next year.
We really only have four guys-Perez and Penny have a way to go to be the pitchers they were two years ago, Lowe seems good for a couple of four game stretches each year and then there's Weaver. Or am I too pesimistic?

Kuo's ERA is now lower than Sean Burroughs's.

Maybe its just a few years experience, but Cruz does stand out above our young guys,especially in defense.(and I'm afraid that includes Werth)

Tracy please use Broxton! Glaus would probably strikeout since Broxton likes to strikeout team's best hitters. (I don't consider Clark their best hitter because he's never hit like this in his career before).

Wo, Kuo!

I just tuned in.

Some things jump out at me:

0 walks in 7 innings.
Jason Phillips and Olmedo Saenz are starting.

Justice-4 Tracy-1.

Runs scored deficits in the NL West at this moment

San Diego -55
San Francisco -83
Los Angeles -65
Arizona -176
Colorado -113

I thought Kuos weapon was velocity, but he hasn't reached Penny velocity yet. Shows how much movement and perception has to do with stuff.
Dig that Aybar leather!

Kuo k's 5 of 7 batters in his 2ip. Good job.

Green spoils the "strike out the side," but Kuo brings his ERA down another 8.68 runs, for 72.43 on the night

Great outing by Kuo. Amazing play by Aybar.

Can somebody please describe the Aybar play?

Kuo is fun name to say and make puns out of. With this in mind, he better be on the 25 man roster next year. Or they could just find somebody else named Jason.

Sharp liner down the line that Aybar made a nice snag on.

Vin called Kuo "brilliant." Will Tracy at least listen to Vin?

"Kuo 'K'0s foe"

See.

220 Kuo could just change his name to Jason Kuo, a la Jason Choizturis

Thanks. I thought maybe he caught it between his legs or behind his back. Wasn't sure what I missed.

Apparently the game is on the official MLB EI docket but my carrier has chosen not to carry it. Not that I blame them.

I lot it when Vin gets giddy about stuff like that.

224. I second that motion.

our bullpen next year will consist of:
game over
ghame over
guame over
guome over
.the bull.

I guess the steroids aren't helping Myrow very much.

I thought Aybar was coming down to Earth, but I was wrong.

Good, Vazquez is out of the game.

Pinch hit with Antonio Perez!

Thank God! The Arizona bullpen!

They've been better of late and have their ERA down to 5.90.

I can't imagine the shock on Robles face if he were to ever be called back to the dugout.

Other Izturis keeps Texas' hopes alive with his third error of the game.

Now 2nd and 3rd one out.

225- do you get EI on something other than direct TV. I didn't think they had any discretion over what they could brodcast into regions (other than to black out) but the other night I couldn't get a game (D's )they had listed.

I hope ghame over gets his confidence back this offseason.

2nd and 3rd with 1 out in the 8th for Texas as Izzy the Lesser has made his second error of the game.

That's the other Izturis? Are you sure?

Good at bat Oscar...

Robles hates to have Kent come up late in the game, so it would seem

235 I have Cox cable which gets EI thru something called InDemand. This is the first time I noticed that they weren't carrying all of the games that EI offers. Since I'm in San Diego, the only games that get blacked out on EI are Padre games.

How about we just call him Uris since he's just a half-brother?

Escobar got out of the jam.

Actually Uris has THREE errors today.

The problem is that Robles is a good situational hitter, but that wasn't a situation.

If Izturis would have missed that he would have been beheaded at the hands of 43,000 white people.

Werth has managed to work his way to the third highest on base percentage on the team of the people who actually play.

This is a very good sign. If only his power would come back.

wow, joining a little late, but just read Kuo's line. And it looks like he did it against AZ's middle of the lineup right?

As for finishing second Tracy, doesn't pinch hitting a quality hitter with two on and down 3 help that? Or am I missing a reason why Robles would be seen as our best bet there.

Speaking of those 43,000 people, ever notice that there seems to be a significant number of attractive women in the expensive seats at Angel Stadium?

Kuo & Broxton --> Sanchez --> Gagne

I could live with that next year. Broxton is throwing some serious heat here. 97mph on that last one.

The Twins are DHing Brent Abernathy today. The guys not good enough to be their starting 2B in a competeition full of duds, yet he can DH. Needless to say, he hasn't done so well.

these last couple of innings have been a dodger prospect lovers' wet dream.

248. Yes, but it's like that anywhere there are expensive seats. The difference is at Angel Stadium there are a couple babe-a-trons in the nose bleeds. At Dodger Stadgum those seats are reserved for scary monsters.

I hope playing for 2nd includes a heavy dose of Kuo and Broxton down the stretch.

Blowing away 7 of last 10 batters isn't too bad.

Saenz is hitting .175 in 40AB's in September. OPS of .539.

I wonder if he'll tell Tracy he cant go, and that he's hurting his free agency value by playing while he's hurt.

What the use in playing Saenz anymore? Or Edwards, Robles, and Phillips?

Did anyone ever notice that before Arte Moreno it seemed like the Angels only signed white players? Look at their 2002 team.

Going to the 9th in Anaheim.

Texeria, Blalock, Soriano due up.

just caught up reading the posts, and it seems we all agree that the reason Robles hit there was because of the grapefruit with a bandaid thing.

Is it just me, or does anyone else want to join a fantasy baseball team next year just to draft Sanchez, Kuo, Broxton, and Gagne? Even Grapefruit couldn't screw up a season with those guys in the pen right?

We need a nickname for that quartet. Or at least the latter three.

255
You mean guys like Garret Anderson, Bengie and Jose Molina, Frankie Rodriguez, Chone Figgins?

254 Second place, baby.

Guess Kent doesnt believe in walking to pad his stats. That was a very unprofessional at bat. Got to 3-1, then just starts hacking at junk.

260- Kent likes RBIs not walks

Rodriguez leads off the 9th with a lead off walk to Teixiera.

BA and RBIs get you in the HOF not walks and OBP

258. No I meant the other 20 there starting lineup

Eckstein
Erstad
Glaus
Salmon
Anderson
Fulmer
Kennedy
Molina

251- I can remember a year when for one reason or another they turned the kids loose in Sept. and Lopes and either Russell or Cey were among them. We've got a preponderance of good things coming, but its a tricky thing to do it right.

Interesting how we can throw around the terms "acceptance" and "denial", and even I said I was in "acceptance" a couple weeks ago but it isn't until you truly don't care if the Dodgers win or lose that determines how you really feel. Tonight was the first for me (I realize I am one of the hanger-ons).

Wow. Should have had bases loaded an 0 outs this inning. But Cruz and Kent both swung at ball 4.

267- Cruz did not swing at ball 4. Kent swung at a borderline pitcher 3-1

257--- KGB?

Dodgers tragic number

5

257 -- The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: War (Broxton), Famine (Sanchez), Pestilence (Kuo), and Death (Gagne).

forgot Spezio

1st and 2nd two out for Adrian Gonzalez.

adrian gonzalez is a good current comp to loney.

274 -- please don't tell me that

Angels survive. Still 1.5 games up on the A's.

I've reached Acceptance, but its a tribute to this site that I'm still engaged in the games and players. Usually at this point I had bitterly turned away to Hockey or something else. Getting out the venom has been helpful, although I try not to blast my obsessions too much

please don't tell me that

why? he hit .338/.399/.561 in AAA this year to go along with GG defense at 1b.

If the comp is "1st basemen that are still considered prospects due to draft position above anything else"...

Adrian Gonzales has been a gigantic bust considering he was the #1 overall pick.

Here is a question that Bob maybe able to answer. In all of the years I have followed the Dodgers I never remember a season, where if the Dodgers won the last series and the Giants won theirs, the Dodgers would actually help the Giants win the division.

With the Giants down by only 5, if the Giants can shave off one more game before they meet the Pads, it is not out of the realm of possibility in this bizarre season that the Dodgers could actually help the Giants tie the Padres.

That was a HUGE game the White Sox won tonight.

Add Osoria in the mix, and give goggles to Kuo and Broxton, and you have the Goggles Gang

Although I like the KGB

214
So, NL West teams have now been collectively outscored by 491 runs this year. And somehow they've done it while frequently playing each other!

Based on their runs scored and against, expected records are:
SD 69 – 81, six games worse than their actual record
SF 66 – 84, four games worse than their actual record
LA 68 – 82, one game better than their actual record
AZ 58 – 93, ten games worse than their actual record(!)
COL 64 – 86, two games better than their actual record

Apparently, the pythagorean NL West race is more exciting than the actual NL West race.
Expected standings:
Games back
SD: -
LA: 1
SF: 3
COL: 5
AZ: 11 1/2

The Dodgers can still win this race!

Don't get too excited, now.

re: 279

no, the comp is for 1b who play solid defense, both have sweet line drive left handed swings, and have long slender bodies that have not filled out yet. Gonzalez who has now begun to fill out, has now hit with power... like he was projected too.

if it wasnt for tiexera, gonzalez would be a fulltime mlb 1b already.

280. If that were the case I'd be happy to see a lineup full of Jasons and Houlton on the mound.

Just my skepticism getting the best of me.

I hope everything Ends up okay for Navarro and his son. Does anyone have details? Vin didn't get into specifics.

287 I just know he needed feeding tubes and Navarro is questionable for tomorrow (with good reason)

280

I don't think it's happened in our lifetimes.

2004 - Dodgers and Giants battle to the end
2003 - Giants beat Dodgers by 15 1/2
2002 - Giants beat out Dodgers (and others) for wild card
2001 - Dodgers eliminate Giants from wild card
2000 - Giants win by 11
1999 - Both teams stink (Dodgers affect another race)
1998 - No effect
1997 - No comment
1996 - No Giants
1995 - Dodgers battle the Rockies
1994 - Strike
1993 - Take that Giants!
1992 - No comment
1991 - Giants knock out Dodgers
1990 - Reds lead wire to wire
1989 - Dodgers try to spoil Giants, but Padres lose anyway
1988 - YAA
1987 - Dodgers stink too much to make a difference

1982 - Ugh

Going back further, it seems that when the Giants won, usually the Dodgers were in contention with the Giants at the same time.

When the Giants won in 1936 and 1937, the Giants won without much help from others.

KGB - love that one - with Sanchez on the outside looking in.

290 Sanchez and Schmoll can be the SS

The Dodgers now have the seventh overall draft pick. I'll be cheering for Detroit and Seattle (yuck, my least favorite team) to win a bunch of games (especially against those yucky Angels). If everything breaks just right the Dodgers could grab the fifth pick!

Im with you, lets go for the high draft pick. Is taking second place and all the "pride" that goes with that better than gaining a few spots in the draft? I think its a question worth asking.

KGB is a great nickname.

On a sidenote I will say a prayer for little Dionner Navarro tonight. Having had my daughter spend the first 5 days of her life in the neo natal intensive care unit, I can feel for what he is going through. But our little one never experienced anything as bad as feeding tubes. Get well soon!! vr, Xei

I also had a newborn daughter in the ICU this year. Even if turns out to be no big deal, as in our case, its real stressful at the time. Glad your family came throug it, Xei, and my heart goes out to the Navarros.

I would hope Navarro would take the rest of the season off. He's got a far more important thing to deal with.