Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
* * *
I would be very guarded on not letting the past two weeks yield too much optimism on Jose Cruz, Jr. and Willy Aybar, or at least recognize that we're probably seeing them at their peak as far as 2006 is concerned.
I do think Aybar might be a nice little infielder if the other parts around him are strong. But the Dodgers can't afford too many guys like him with as little power he offers.
Consider this batting order. This is the minimum amount of homers I'd like to see.
1 - 5 HR
2 - 15 HR
3 - 30 HR
4 - 30 HR
5 - 25 HR
6 - 20 HR
7 - 15 HR
8 - 5 HR
PH - 5 HR
Total - 150 HR
That means only two players in your lineup can hit fewer than 10 homers. Say those guys are Aybar and whoever plays shortstop. Can the Dodgers find six other positions to hit double-digit home runs, to combine for 135 homers? Don't forget, you're not going to get many homers out of catcher. That means you need the remaining five positions to contribute a bunch of taters.
J.D. Drew and Jeff Kent probably can combine for more than 50. But if Aybar is in your lineup, you really need your outfield corners and first base to knock the ball out of the park on a regular basis.
Update: Somewhat related to the above, Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus chops at the legs of one myth today: that the Chicago White Sox win without hitting home runs.
Watching some of the coverage of the White Sox the last couple of days, I'm struck by how the "Sox are a small ball team" meme just won't go away. They're not a small-ball team! They're about as reliant on the home run as they were a year ago, and among the most reliant on the home run as any team in the AL, as James Click's numbers show:
White Sox Pct. Of Runs on HR
2004: 44.4% (AL: 36.8%)
2005: 41.8% (AL: 36.5%)
2005 Rankings
Rangers 48.9%
Yankees 42.7%
White Sox 41.8%
Orioles 39.9%
Indians 39.6%
Red Sox 37.7%
Tigers 35.4%
Devil Rays 34.9%
A's 32.9%
Twins 31.7%
Angels 31.4%
Blue Jays 30.6%
Mariners 30.4%
Royals 27.9%
That's the White Sox: a team that scores more than 40% of its runs on home runs. You can steal all the bases you want, burn up two or three outs a game on sacrifice bunts and caught stealings, but if you're this reliant on homers to score, you're not a small-ball team.
Sheehan goes on to argue that in fact, the White Sox are winning because how much they have improved at run prevention. He does not make the case that home run power translates directly to victories.
No shooting of the messenger....
Random Dodger Game Callback
September 21, 1999
The Dodgers smashed four home runs against Giants pitching and they cruised to a 9-4 win at Dodger Stadium to give Australian rookie Jeff Williams his first major league win before a crowd of 31,881. But the Dodgers had been eliminated from pennant consideration for a while. The win improved the Dodgers record to 71-80, 20 games behind first place Arizona and in fourth place.
After Williams gave up a run to the Giants in the first, first baseman Eric Karros gave the Dodgers a lead with a 3-run homer in the bottom of the first. It was Karros's 33rd homer of the season.
Left fielder Gary Sheffield hit his 28th homer in the fifth, catcher Paul Lo Duca hit his third one in the sixth and right fielder Raul Mondesi hit his 31st in the seventh. The Dodgers had eleven hits overall.
Williams went five innings and allowed no earned runs. Relievers Robinson Checo and Onan Masaoka allowed three runs in the sixth and seventh innings. Jeff Shaw pitched a scoreless ninth inning.
1999 was a season of big changes for the Dodgers. The team had a new general manager, Kevin Malone. And he brought in a new manager, Davey Johnson (after Felipe Alou turned down the job). Malone made sure people knew he was. He described himself as the "new sheriff" in the NL West and he signed Padres ace Kevin Brown to a seven-year $105 million contract.
And it was pretty much all downhill from there. The Dodgers went 77-85 for the season and finished 23 games behind the first place Diamondbacks in third place.
Brown went 18-9 with a 3.00 ERA and struck out 221. But the rest of the staff struggled. Chan Ho Park was 13-11 with a 5.23 ERA. Ismael Valdes (not yet Valdez) was 9-14 with a 3.98 ERA. Darren Dreifort was 13-13 with a 4.79 ERA. Carlos Perez was 2-10 with a 7.43 ERA.
The offense had its share of power hitters with Karros and Sheffield both hitting 34 homers. Mondesi hit 33 homers. Catcher Todd Hundley hit 24, but batted .207, and was shaky behind the plate. 20-year old third baseman Adrian Beltre batted .275 with 15 home runs.
The 1999 season was epitomized by the final game of the year. The Dodgers were in Houston. The Astros and Reds were competing for the NL Central title and the Mets were also in the mix as the wild card. The Astros held a one-game lead over the Reds on the last day of the season and the Reds had the same record as the Mets.
Johnson said that he would have started Brown on three days rest on the last day of the season if Brown had 19 wins. But Brown had lost to the Giants in his last start, so Johnson decided to start Robinson Checo. He also opted to rest Sheffield after his left fielder topped the century mark in both RBI and walks.
Meanwhile the Astros started 21-game winner Mike Hampton and their regular lineup. It was no contest. The Astros scored four runs in the first to chase Checo and went on to a 9-4 win.
Lost amidst all the turmoil in 1999 was the debut of rookie right-handed starter Eric Gagne. In five starts, Gagne was 1-1 with a 2.10 ERA.
Thanks to the Los Angeles Times, Retrosheet, and Baseball-Reference.com
I guess, you have to say Kent, but I mean more in the sense of Gagne in Bob's RDGC.
I guess my vote goes for Robles.
My highlight of the year was the destruction of the Twins by Choi. The opening day win against the Giants is 2nd.
The lowlight moment was getting swept by the Royals. The lowlight player is Werth but he has lots of company.
The best player is Kent and there is about a 24-way tie for second.
Now back to Dodger baseball.
It totally fails. But I dont fault Lasorda or Malone for giving him that deal. Carlos Perez was lights out for those 1st couple months he came over. And he was in his prime. Who knew he'd tank horribly?
"fun" fact
ross/mayne 2004: 0.3 warp
phillips 2005: 0.4 warp
7 - Another vote for Valentin, but as Least Valuble Dodger Regular When Playing. He played decently in the first few weeks, and props to him for somehow playing an inning AFTER he tore three ligaments in his knee, but his season is dissapointing even with the low expectations everyone had.
I expected more from Werth then I did from Philips or Valentin. Valentin was on the wrong side of his career so falling off the cliff was very possible. I don't see how a 390 slug % is decent for a corner outfielder. His OBP was okay for guy batting 245. I'm sure his wrist injury is to blame for some of the lack of power but I still didn't see any power during August or September. One home run against Pedro does not atone for a season of bad at bats.
The loss of an estimated 40ish home runs from Valentin and Werth has truly hurt.
Most disappointing Dodger? I'm not sure. I tend to not get down on players that are used wrongly to begin with. Its not Jason Phillips fault he was used to much. Nor Izturis. Nor Repko. I thought Milton Bradley would have a better year than he did. I think he'd be my most 'disappointing' Dodger, if I had to pick one.
No, it sure doesn't, but if you had to pick only one moment for Werth to come up big this season that was probably the one. I was tired of watching them get shown up by Pedro.
But he became just about unusable when the second-half rolled around.
Valentin gave us exactly what he has done in recent years, so he was not a disappointment to me.
Werth, I hope, suffered from the sophomore jinx. But I suspect not.
Hard to rate anyone who spent a substantial amount of time being on the DL. And having said that...
...most disappointing? probably Izturis prior to going on the DL.
Most pleasant surprise? Kent performing at the level he did with no support whatsoever notwithstanding, I would go with Navarro.
Are you from Fairfield, CA, by the way?
Minus the playing a full season and hitting 25-30 HRs like he had for 5 straight years, I guess.
that is kind of a Bonds type rate of homeruns per time making contact...
To me O/P was a top disappointment because he signed a 3 yr deal and only started 17 games in the 1st yr of it.
Can someone with a BA membership explain to me what in their scouting reports made Sanfler and Rivera so much better than Leach, Meloan, Mitchell, Sutherland, Apodaca, Locke, Van Slyke, Bell, Perez, Wall, Johnson, Hobdy, and probably a few other guys I missed?
After quicklu skimming the Q&A, this is the only Dodger thing I could find
Q: Ian from London, UK asks:
I thought a couple of catchers might make the list- Kiel Thibault and Juan Apodaca. Both hit, and weren't geriatric (Apodaca 19, Thibault 21). Are they prospects? And how's their defense?
A: Alan Matthews: Thibault was the Royals' ninth-round pick this year from Gonzaga. He's advanced defensively and draws praise for his poise and game-calling ability. Apodaca is younger and turned in a good season at Ogden, though he has a lot of room for improvement in all phases of his game. Both guys were on the fringe of making the list.
But that's exactly what he had done for five straight years, 2000-2004. I'm not making it up.
We knew he'd have a low BA, but when he hit he used to hit for lots of power and was usually pretty streaky.
Hey, he was certainly a bust, but I would have liked to see him play a full season facing only right-handed pitching without a torn up knee.
I have never been able to figure out what Tracy's love affair with him is about...
I was called "the new guy" at work for about 8 years.
As for Juan Rivera, Baseball America loves his defense, and he's a plus runner. They think in time he will hit line drives consistently.
http://www.okcupid.com/politics
Hope springs until were officially eliminated given whom we play, and whom were chasing.
The Padres will be in Arizona that day and the Dodgers will be at home and facing Paul Maholm of the Pirates.
Perhaps we can set up a registry of every DT reader's blood type, so we can set up our own blood bank. Or maybe we can sell some of our blood and donate it to Frank McCourt.
Is this unprecendented? What if they choke? Have you seen other teams do this? I wouldn't set myself up like that.
1) Drew starting the season 0 for everything.
2) Izturis backsliding.
3) Nakamura.
As far as which player disappointed me the most, as far as expectations vs. results, none other than the enigmatic H.S. Choi. No fault of his own (but maybe in a way it is since he failed to convince), but I thought we'd know more about him by now, in a good way.
He put DePo's odds at being here at 60% but the most interesting comment was that DePo has told friends that he is miserable here.
That may only be because nothing worked out this year, but I thought it was an interesting statement (assuming it has any foundation in truth).
That unsourced, no-context "DePo telling friends" remark is going to be a thorn in my side for weeks, I'm thinking. So irresponsible. And yet people will run with it.
Thanks Jon. I'll sleep better tonight.
Disappointment is reserved for something that garners high (or, for that matter, any) expectations. I never for one minute expected Nakamura to last in the big leagues. Am I the only one? I didn't even expect to see his name outside of a punchline at this point in the season.
Dinner at El Cholo if Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew hit 50 in 2006. I think you will in fact be owing me after the end of the 2006 season.
Better yet, make it Sonora Cafe.
Bob, remember that!
Are you assuming one or both will have lower than normal home run years or that JD will be injured again?
vr, Xei
It seems as if the context is key for the Nightengale quote.
You can take it a million different ways if you really want to.
Maybe he is miserable because the team stinks.
Maybe he is miserable because he has a bad relationship with Jim Tracy.
Maybe he is miserable because he hates LA.
Obviously those are just a few examples, but they all mean different things (I guess).
For all we know, he told friends one day that he was miserable because he had a broken tooth and wasn't able to get to the dentist because he was too busy with the draft or something.
Just to steal from what you said, the quote doesn't mean a darn thing in it's current context.
Jason Phillips cannot, by definition, have disappointed anyone. He's Jason Phillips for gods sake. What do you expect?
vr, Xei
But I really just want peace in our time!
Where's the story about me taking my cat in for cancer surgery?
But you would have no more reason to believe me, an anonymous blog comment poster, than to believe Nightengale.
I will miss tonight's game as some friends are taking me out for dinner. The last time they treated me at this restaurant, the Dodgers beat Arizona and they were 4-1.
3B Aybar
1B Choi
SS Robles
RF Cruz, Jr.
2B APerez
C Phillips
LF Werth
CF Repko
P Penny
You're a regular contributor to DT, therefore your word is gospel.
82 -
How many homers does tonight's starting lineup have this year? Probably quite a few less than Andruw by himself.
I'm going to let the air out of the tires of your Edsel!
If you read, I think Depo's aquisition of Cruz to be a very good move. I think his aquisition of Finley was a very good move. I suspect by te end of the season, Cruz will not be resigned just like Finley.
They are nothing but quick fixes for problem areas. Once they aren't resigned, then you have the very same situation after the season--the same problem--which in Depo's case, he'll sign a mediocre talent to fill that void.
That mediocrity combined to win the division last year.
What is this years mediocrity doing?
No one can accuse Tracy of being a "traditionalist" since that would dictate batting your power hitter (in tonight's lineup that would be Choi)in the cleanup position, your best guy at moving people along (possibly Robles) in the #2 and your best overall hitter #3 (tonight's lineup has nobody who qualifies to bat in that position).
You may be on to something Tommy, but at least DePo didn't resign the less than mediocre talent that is known as Steve Finley, version 2005.
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING."
http://tinyurl.com/cx7nc
Third most intense on record? Ever?
That blank can be filled in ten times over.
This is true, and hopefully not year after year. I would hate that.
So you think its a players decision when and where he gets hurt? Is that what your trying to say?
1) JD Drew, playing, had a .920 OPS
2) JD Drew was put out of commission by a pitched ball, an injury that has not only been suffered by various and sundry players over the past century, but one that was caused by a wholly external event, only foreseeable to the extent that such an event might happen to any player, at any time at the plate, regardless of his contract status.
These are facts. The only "What if" being played here is the now old, discredited, played out nonsense about "What if JD Drew has brittle bones" etc., arguments that if they were made by Dr. Nick, would get a hearty laugh on a Sunday evening.
Steve, are you suggesting that Steve Finley's injury was planned? Why should Steve Finley's season hampering injury be any different then J.D. Drew's? A player whom seems to make a good living on the DL.
HOW IS STEVE FINLEY'S BACK INJURY ANY DIFFERENT.
Yes, the broken wrist was a freek accident, but its an injury. Steve Finley's problems this year were exactly that--INJURIES. How is it any different then any player that suffers an injury?
What players seem to get injured a lot in their careers? Don't think for a second Depodesta doesn't have that factored into his spread sheets.
Your "mediocre" definition, I assume, is directed at Cruz Jr, since I don't think anyone would rule Drew "mediocre" (though of course many have leveled the "injury-prone" label at him).
Finley cost $14 million to resign for this season (and next season). Cruz Jr has, so far, cost a pittance of that, and if we resign him, would cost a fraction of what Finley's market value is.
Interesting to note that Jeff Kent is in a three way tie with ARod and Brian Giles for third most win shares (31) in baseball.
Valentine is also an interesting dude. Every time I see his numbers .172 ba/ .326 obp, I can't help but wonder about his BABIP. He's never been a great hitter, but his obp coupled with his 4.36 p/pa make him a reasonably (sort of) cheap depo type guy. The loss of power sucks, though, and so do the Dodgers.
Thus, Jim Tracy is the most disappointing person on the team.
Another way to look at this is, it is fine to argue that it was a mistake to sign Drew to a 5 year contract because of his injury record, but his getting injured this year doesn't lend any support to that argument.
"The 40-year-old Finley has been fighting shoulder problems since the second game of the season at Angel Stadium, when he collided with the 8-foot fence trying to leap for Alfonso Soriano's tiebreaking home run in the 12th inning of a 3-2 loss to Texas on April 6."
at least its not the nerve in the bicep acting up again.
specifically, observational and theoretical language?
i ask because i am currently writing a paper and to be blunt, the paper sucks.
Jim Tracy as Manager of Dodgers in August and September for his career. I find that unacceptable myself. When you consider all those teams were in the race at the time, the numbers are worse.
I realize there are many excuses in terms of roster talent, distractions(sheff/bradley etc) etc, but I am tired of defending him.
The comparison wasn't about Cruz Jr. Like you, I think the Dodgers should sign him for next year.
Now remembering your dealing with an old guy here of 46 years, but I take issue with some of this! You will to when you reach my tender old age! Actually, I'll pit Finley's conditioning at 43 or whatever his age is, to any of ours at that age. He is a wonderment of great health and fitness and should be applauded for the effort.
Yes, his body is more then susceptable to injury, just like it was at 20 years old and any other age when competiting in sports. WE ARE ALL SUSCEPTABLE TO INJURY.
And yes, we do become more susceptable to injury as we get older. Ask Randy Johnson, he to has a shelf life. So did Nolan Ryan and Ricky Henderson.
But the main point with Steve is that he is almost making excuses for the time of the injury and how it affects a ball players season. Yes, it was a freek accident. But that's the particular event. It isn't the result. Whether its bending down in the shower and throwing out your back to having a wrist broken, an injury is an injury. Some of them are very bad, some of them not so bad.
The less time the better.
Now without having to go look anything up, Finley's problems were because of a back injury, correct? I suffer back problems a lot from golf, and I can tell you it affects everything I do when they occur.
So how can you compare a season where Finley misses almost the first half of it and then comes back and struggles at the plate to Drew who misses the last half of his season and struggled at the opening of the season?
-Both start the season on different teams.
-One starts in a completely different league.
Look, I'm not saying--and in a nice way, not being insulting like Steve, who is clearly an angry individual--that Finley is just about through. I dind't think he would make it into the second year of that contract. I really didn't, and that was the problem for Depodesta to begin with. He wanted a two-year deal and Depo wasn't going to give him that! It's understandable if your building for the future, but for winning today, well just throw-away that same money when you trade Shawn Green to a division competitor and pay him more then half of his salary. Don't sign Finley who could also be of help to the young talent thats coming up, as well as help being a more central figure--a leader. The role that Jeff Kent was never going to fill.
- The logical positivists and empiricists believed that the only source of scientific knowledge is observation, and that all observation is describable in observational language, but they never reached an agreement about where to draw the line between observational and theoretical language. Did that indicate a fundamental problem with logical empiricism?
lol...
BUT: In Tommy's defense, the proper counterfactual isn't to assume that Drew would have played the rest of the season, OPSing .920 and starting 150 or 160 games. One thing that the broken hand prevented was any other kind of injury. Drew might have torn up his knee in the next inning, or game, or week. We'll never know. The broken wrist wasn't because of his history of injuries, but his history of injuries still makes one discount his expected season-long production. Look at Bradley. I'd say that the finger injury he suffered was pretty freakish too. But then he returned, and tore up his knee. The first was probably not predictable because of "injury proneness." The second might have been.
That said, I like JD Drew. I liked the signing, and I'm optimistic about him next year. Who knows, maybe the extra time off will have given his body time to rest and will reduce the chance of a "normal" JD injury next year.
But the main point with Steve is that he is almost making excuses for the time of the injury and how it affects a ball players season. Yes, it was a freek accident. But that's the particular event. It isn't the result. Whether its bending down in the shower and throwing out your back to having a wrist broken, an injury is an injury. Some of them are very bad, some of them not so bad.
Yes, I get angry when you take your stupid argument, and call it my stupid argument. It peeves me, because my argument is a good argument, and I'd rather you took credit for your own dumb arguments.
That's kind of a strange question. If the inability to draw the line is a problem with logical empiricism, why wouldn't it also be a problem with positivism? I guess that the short answer is probably "Yes." Am I correct in interpreting "observational language" to mean singular statements about a particular observation or event, whereas "theoretical language" means universal statements about all events?
Classic J.T. interview material.
Seriously, from what I posted above (that no one read) Finley's shoulder injury seemed to be of the freak type as well.
As for JD Drew, his injury had nothing to do with anything injuries he suffered in the past. He might be an unlucky guy though.
Some people can't see the forest through their computer generated trees...
And when you consider that many of Choi's extra ABs (which I also wish he'd had) would have come at the expense of Saenz, who was plenty productive.
If you just take every game in which Phillips played first and plug in Choi instead (what did Jon tell us - 17 of them?), and every game in which Edwards or Robles played 3rd and plug in Perez, I doubt you'd get as far as 8-9 wins.
observational language refers to sensory language. ill use an example in the book:
"Red" = Observational term
"Electron" = Theoretical term
"The rod is glowing red"
"Helium atoms contain two electrons
I think the answer is yes too. but i just can put down "yes" for a 8 page paper.
Losing your cool in a discussion isn't what I call discussion. Your the one that's arguing and resulting to insults.
Another thing is you don't do yourself any favors calling other opinions dumb or stupid. It doesn't help this great website one bit. You might as well just link it to the Dodger main page where the real name calling occurs. I'm sure that's where you get it, because we never used to have it here-BEFORE you ever even started frequenting here.
Cheers and best wishes
well from what i understand(i might not even be understanding it right), the positivists are an extreme version of the empiricists and they strictly believe observational language is the only way to gain knowledge. Whereas the logical empiricsts are more liberal in their stance- meaning their stance on where to draw the line is vague and varies from empiricist thinking to a different empiricist thinker.
it his now his destiny to be transformed into an elite relief pitcher.
Thanks for posting that about Finley. As a Dodger fan, I tried to avoid the Angels like I like to avoid acid reflux, so I didn't know the full 411.
Fallout,
This would be very true. All of those stats and no Division play-offs to go to. Very deep clutter those trees!
Not sure if this helps, but let me see if we agree about something. Positivists thought that it was possible to discover universal laws by repeatedly observing the same phenomenon over and over. If the same thing happened every time you observed it, then that was taken as evidence of a law. Empiricists were different in that they rejected this form of inductive logic, and argued instead that you can never actually prove anything; you can only disprove something. No matter how many times you observe the same thing, there's always a chance that the next time could be different. Is that right?
Back to your paper, it seems to me that, if you believe that observation is the only source of knowledge, then how is it even possible to have theoretical knowledge if the subject matter of that knowledge can't be observed? I think the positivists believed that repeated observations were evidence of an underlying theory, but the empiricists argued that you couldn't prove such a belief.
I agree. The positivists were much more hardline than the empiricists, and I think you're right that there was more variation in thinking among the empiricists than among the positivists.
I agree that it's unreasonable and/or unrealistic to expect a 150-160 game season out of Drew... however, even based on his prior history, I think a 120-130 game season of his would do quite nicely (and is a reasonable expectation, based on prior performance).
What Depo based his outfield on was Werth, Bradley, and Drew... and while they would probably all miss some games, Ledee and Repko would fill those (temporary) gaps. I think that's a reasonable plan. However, since we've had an extra-large helping of OF injuries, obviously the depth vanished and we ended up playing scrubs for much of the year.
I have no idea whether we'll resign Bradley or not. I will venture the assumption that either the Dodgers will keep him, or find someone who can put up similar numbers. In that case, I think an outfield of Drew, Bradley/clone, and Cruz Jr -- with Werth and Ledee filling in as needed, is a pretty decent one.
(Since I missed it earlier, go Hee Seop!)
yes thats correct, but those points have more to do with their ideas about logic instead of language so it doesnt really apply to my topic.
and your second paragraph: yes i agre. thats why this is confusing me and is stupid and i hate empiricism because its incredibly flawed.
Unless the person doing it happens to agree with you, you worthless hypocrite.
134 - Yes, I get angry when you take your stupid argument, and call it my stupid argument.
-----
Unsportsmanlike conduct, offense.
Unsportsmanlike conduct, defense.
Replay the down.
Regarding their disagreement on where to draw the line: do you know where each side draws the line, or is that something you're supposed to figure out?
Once you get past Popper's "Dogmatic falsificationism" as impossible, in that we can't disprove anything any more than we can prove anything, it's a slippery slope to Feyerabend and his ilk who deny that any sort of knowledge is possible. Lakatos is much more practical about it. Sort of like Jon is about Jim Tracy - don't toss out the old theory (manager) until you've found a better one that (who) can do all the things that the old one (guy) did well, and do a better job on stuff the old one (guy) could not do. He calls it "sophisticated methodological falsificationism."
And with that, I retire.
well i know the positivists are hardliners and only sensory words can be used. They also have this tricy thing that can transform theoretical sentences into the observable. its called the verifiability theory of meaning, or the correspondance rule.
but yea, i am suppose to figure out where the empiricists draw the line, which i cant because the line is so vague any empiricist can draw his own line and it wouldnt be wrong. for example, carnap said each case is different and you draw the line uniquely to each case.
which IMO, is just another way of saying "our movement is so flawed that we have to keep adding new rules to the point where any idea could be right and cannot be disproved wrong."
We should probably end this conversation, as this board is much more strict about subject matter than the other one. But it sounds to me like you're on the right track.
I'm surpised by the split decision. In my mind one of them was worse than the other.
But, I'm learning about your personality. :)
jon said this was an open discussion form!!!
but true, we shouldnt turn this into empiricists' thoughts for today.
Doesn't really matter, since both crossed the line. I've made it clear that the policy here is to turn the other cheek - being insulted is not an excuse for retaliating.
"since we cant remember the korean kids name from last night, we will just call him koufax because he is left handed, a dodger and struck out a lot of guys"
school is a female dog. my professors decided to play a mean trick on me and have 2 midterms and an 8 page philosophy paper due in the same week.
but when i had the chance, i did read the post. great work jon, i fully appreciate it :)
please get your priorities straight..
7
Dodgers tragic number (for elimination)
4
choi's hit the ball hard all 3 times though. thats all i could ask.
4 GIDP
2 by Phillips
2 by Choi
9 K's for Webb
0 walks for the Dodgers.
Yuck.
Phillips is 3-30 in September.
I soley follow the games now to check out the young guys for next year. Looking forward to Broxton going again tonight.
Can Kuo pitch back to back nights yet or is that risking his arm falling off?
I'm no longer faced with trying to solve the Phillips koan.
to injure himself so tracy cant use him.
Troy Glaus is blocking too, right? And isn't the Jackson kid a corner?
11 k's for Webb. His game score is gonna be high tonite.
It seems weird to read:
Texas Rangers pitcher Kameron Loe left the game due to an injured head.
vr, Xei
Icaros? You have first crack.
But isn't that the point of throwing a sinker ball? Or one of them?
Or just pitching in general?
vr, Xei
Indeed I did eat at Polka. I ordered a pork cutlet that was the size of Barry Bonds' head. I ate half of it and will eat the rest for dinner Thursday.
The pork cutlet that is. I don't have half of Barry Bonds' head in my refrigerator.
vr, Xei
I want my money back!
Marty, those are the only two Polish restaurants in the L.A. area according to my friend. Who is Polish.
And not in the A.J. Pierzynski sense. She's Polish in the Lech Walesa sense.
She doesn't have a mustache like Lech though.
that is the pitch! thats the money pitch! keep throwing it yhency!
Ichiro = .441 slugging
Beltre = .415 (with a .298 obp)
he went from 97 to 87 and it was just so pretty with the split finger diving action.
All at Dodger Stadium.
The only chance for a Jason to make the list would be for one of the male J storms to cause significant damage. Then it gets retired and they add a new name.
The Js in 2003 and 2004 were retired: Juan and Jeanne.
Hurricane Bob made his debut in 2001 and was retired.
Cool, I can make my own Mad Max movie!
3
That's a perplexing image.
Not a sabermetric game to say the least. No walks, 1 extra base hit, 8 singles, 12 k's.
The team has the "we're out of it, playing in a home run condusive ballpark. just swing at everything and let the chips fall where they may" attitude.
Sadly, it looks like they will have to go to the extra names for the hurricanes this year. After W comes the Greek alphabet. If they make it through the Greek alphabet, then we should all be repenting our sins.
Probably about 4-5 short of the fence.
Seriously, reading the comments here and last night about the good work done by Dodger rookie pitchers brought cheer to my wizened visage. Acceptance doesn't hurt one bit.
I got a stamped piece of mail from Utah today and I was wondering how:
1) Steve found out my address
2) Why he mailed it after he moved
Turned out to be junk mail. I was being invited to a seminar on how women can make money in the real estate market.
Someone had a little trouble with their mailing list I guess.
But in good news, I got a check for $70 from Canada today!
He really is.
And the Yankees are in first place.
#219: One good thing about Aybar is that he'll relieve some of the media pressure to sign a mediocre 3B stop-gap (i.e. Joe Randa or Bill Mueller). I don't see either of those two outproducing Aybar / Perez by very much, so the money would better be spent elsewhere.
Jon, thanks for the prospect roundup the other day. I really enjoyed it. I feel good about your homerun target if we can sign Giles or Matsui and we find some way to keep Bradley for another year. Those are obviously both big ifs though.
Steve, sorry I'm not here to get your back. Even with the injury, J.D. Drew has been reasonably priced at $11 million for the value he has contributed (~5 WARP). Projecting a similar production rate for even just 130 games next year makes me very happy. After the season is over, I'll update the free agent analysis I did earlier in the season.
Bob, hi! Hopefully this time around I'll actually speak with Bill James when I get the chance.
Nate, good luck with your paper. The future of our bullpen looks bright for years to come. I'm still not sold on our starting rotation for next year though. I'm holding out hope that one of Billingsley, Miller, and Jackson break through in the AFL.
Now it's time for me to get back to work. Good night all.
The last season they lost 85 was 1999.
The last season they lost more than 85 was 1992 when they lost 99.
Since they have 67 wins, they can't lose more than 95.
1992 remains the only season the L.A. Dodgers lost more than 90 games.
Prior to that, the last 90+ loss season was 1944 when the Dodgers lost 91.
Prior to that year, the Dodgers lost 90+ in 1912. The Dodgers lost a lot of games in that era.
"He has the tools to be the best hitter we have because he has something you can't teach -- bat speed" Royster said, "We have some very good hitters in the organization. [Joel] Guzman and [Andy] LaRoche have the power, [Tony] Abreu is a slappy guy who will hit. But Young can be the best, without a doubt, it's not even close."
"He has a chance to do some damage," Royster said. "You can't teach what guys like [Bill] Madlock and [Gary] Sheffield and [Tony] Gwynn have. When Gwynn's bat went through the zone, it just looked different than the rest of us."
"Young would have to get better than he is at second base, which is why trying him in the outfield as an outfielder makes so much sense," said Royster. "Abreu already is an extremely good second baseman that can hit and run."
"That's why you never really know until they get here," he said. "[Aybar]'s gone back to the basic fundamentals. He was always a real good third baseman. People say he doesn't have the power for the position, but he'll drive in runs. He's a real RBI guy, a good two-strike hitter. He's laying off bad pitches up here. It's fun to watch."
Also, a Tracy quote:
"It would be nice to use him for an inning, then see how he'd bounce back for a hitter or two so you could visualize it during the season rather than the Grapefruit League," said Tracy, envisioning Kuo for the situational left-hander role. "We have to be mindful of the history with his arm."
Thanks.
That is not a new idea.
My Name Is Earl.
This has to stop. Seriously.
Rod Barajas!
You know how many sacrifices they have this year?
NINE
Whether you're Paul DePodesta, Steve Jobs, John Kerry or Mick Jagger, you should always ignore the press. If they like you, it's just the set-up for when they turn on you. And when they turn on you, "we're just doing our job."
The media's adoration of LoDuca is probably based on the fact that he was buried in the organization and not tagged as a real prospect until he came up and won the job. He was also an Advil after the Piazza headache.
Repko fits into the "came out of nowhere" media paradigm. And, as you may know, he's scrappy.
Izturis doesn't belong on this list. He is a seriously talented shortstop who never hit for spit until 2004, when he vaulted from .220 to .290. Any hits from him were considered a bonus. He's there for his fielding, and until Omar Vizquel arrived, he was the best fielding SS in the NL. I submit we really don't know whether his rampaging offense early in the 2005 season was a fluke or the real deal, because he was probably playing hurt long before he started to show up on the DL.
They don't say it very often.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/broadcasters.jsp?c_id=tor
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/223772.html
'249. King of the Hobos
Some pitchers request a personal catcher, maybe Penny could request a personal first baseman. He needs to be comfortable throwing pick off pitches'
I don't understand the comment about LaDuca. Why is he even being talked about in the same breath as the others. It seems obvious to me why he was considered a good young player.
Year VorpNlCatchers
2001 2nd
2002 3rd
2003 6th
2004 6th
2005 4th
After his 1st two years in the league he was the 2nd or 3rd best catcher in the NL. Doesn't that constitute a "good young player". Just because the media jumped on Depo for trading LaDuca does not mean LaDuca did not give the Dodgers excellent value from 2001-2004. I find it very doubtfull that Navarro will ever post a VORP of 59 in his career like LaDuca did in 2001. Defending Depo does not mean the players he's traded need to be bagged on.
I'll take Jason Bay over anyone on the Dodgers. Amazing how crappy a team we have but we still find it so easy to belittle the rest of the league.
LoDuca is/was a good catcher, but he played his first full season at the age of 29.
I think that disqualifies him from the "young" part, but doesn't take away from him being a good player.
Cincinnati 4-3
Milwaukee 5-1
San Diego 10-5 (with 3 left)
The Dodgers lead the Pirates 2-1 with 4 left between the two.
How it took him 3 more years to match the home run total of that year is a mystery.
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