Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Deal, says the Times.
Jim Tracy asks for a contract extension.
The Dodgers think on it, maybe.
Tracy weighs second-hand rumors of outside interest and his long-term job insecurity against his desire to keep his place in Dodger Stadium, his family in Los Angeles and his belief in his ability to survive or outlast Paul DePodesta.
Day 7 of the escape window comes. If Tracy quits, he gives up a year's guaranteed salary to look for work.
If he doesn't quit, he sets up a very good bluff - he can stay, knowing he's more popular right now than DePodesta. Then, if they fire him, baseball is his oyster. Four winning seasons on his resume and a note from his mom on the fifth. Ninety-nine percent of the sports' population has granted Tracy absolution on 2005 (not that he doesn't deserve some - the injuries, of course, played a role).
What's the only bad thing that could happen to Tracy if he stays? Somehow, the Dodgers lose games despite being healthy and talented, perception shifts against him, the Dodgers don't resign him after 2006 and there are no job opportunities anywhere.
This is a remote scenario to begin with, but the implication from Steve Henson's article today is that the Dodgers should or will take the high road and fire Tracy if they don't plan on offering him a contract extension beyond 2006:
Should the Dodgers decide not to meet Tracy's request, they could fire him shortly after the season and would be responsible for his 2006 salary only if he couldn't find another managerial job.
Speaking hypothetically, DePodesta said the Dodgers would not wait until after the opt-out period to fire Tracy "out of respect for what he's done here."
Now we really have a peek at Tracy's hand. Having requested his contract extension and gotten this response, he can make DePodesta and the Dodgers look bad simply by making them honor their end of the original contract. If they vote to keep him for only one year but don't offer him an extension, even though that's all they've ever promised Tracy, they're cads (would the world dare consider DePodesta prudent?). If they try to influence Tracy's managing after retaining him and he refuses to be handled, and then they fire him, they're two-bit execs who have gone back on their word.
Tracy wants more guaranteed years. Jeff Weaver, according to unsourced reports by Tony Jackson in the Daily News, wants five guaranteed years, with the leverage that even guys like Jeff Weaver are prizes and not just Kevin Brown crumbs. Everyone's making big demands while saying "they just want to be here."
It remains ideal for all parties if Tracy left Los Angeles for a place where he would have more power and appreciation (though DePodesta has never voiced anything but appreciation for Tracy in public). But it isn't logical for Tracy to opt out and leave a guaranteed year on the table when there are so many reasons for him to stay.
The answer, straight out of divorce court, is this. The Dodgers can't offer an extended commitment to a troubled marriage. And they can't wait for Tracy to make the first move out the door. And it's not even apparent that he's worth keeping for just the single year - not because they'd be the cads, but because Tracy might be completely out of their control.
When the season ends, the Dodgers should offer to buy out Tracy's 2006 contract year, at $750,000, as a thank you for his years of service, and wish him the best.
LA Observed says that DePodesta will be on the radio today: "New Daily News managing editor Melissa Lalum guests on KPCC's Talk of the City with Kitty Felde in the 2 pm hour. Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta is also on."
http://www.laobserved.com/
The McCourts have headed a losing org. this season, suffered incredible bashing from the media, and they still have had 500,000 more fans this year and last than they did in 2003.
I would doubt that they would make a decision that would please some fans and most media that may hurt the performance of the team. I'm sure if the fire Tracy and win the World Series next year, nobody will say another word about their future former manager.
Perhaps I am showing a lack of sophistication about such matters, but I don't see why the Dodgers should put opt outs into their contracts. A mutual contract opt out like the Mariners have with Eddie Guardado I can understand, but not a unilateral one. The opt out for Tracy and Drew just creates uncertainty for no good reason. A long term contract creates cost certainty over the length of the contract and keeps a valuable employee from a competitor. Putting in a unilateral opt out undercuts the whole reason to sign someone to a long term contract in the first place.
Stan from Tacoma
Stan from Tacoma
10 - Impossible to tell, but here are my guesses:
Orel Hershiser (seemed to be a stat guy when he played. obvious dodger legacy)
Kevin Kennedy (the "media's" choice. probably no better than tracy re: strategy though)
Jerry Royster (AAA manager, knows the kids)
Ken Macha (Oakland ties. probably is favorite for Pitt job though)
Stan from Tacoma
I think the opt-out was a simple negotiating tool. I think they were stuck on money and DePo offered this as a way to pay Tracy less. Tracy gains negotiating power if the Dodgers had a great year in year 1 of his contract.
Stan - I want you to know that like you, I do value stability. I just don't think the situation here is inherently stable, even if Tracy stays. I think Tracy's demand for an extension in the middle of a contract (as opposed to asking for a multiyear contract after his previous one has expired) is indicative of that.
If Tommy Lasorda, for all his strengths (putting aside his weaknesses) never got a multiyear contract, should Tracy get one?
http://tinyurl.com/d4wef (or just got to Nationals.com)
Now, I'm not saying Bowden doesn't deserve credit for saying "yes" when Carassco called or that it wasn't good judgment to call him -- rather than someone else -- up from New Orleans when injuries left a whole. Still, these things sure are complicated when you really look at them.
I've seen friends in a similar situation (though for about 1/100 the amount of money involved) and in every case, my friends wanted more money than was technically due to them before they agreed to move on peacefully. Tracy might figure that new job or not, he's getting the Dodgers' 750K no matter what. In order to grease that wheel, DePo might have to buy him out for $1M or more.
Physician, heal thyself.
You might be right that in order to make it seem like Tracy is leaving voluntarily, the Dodgers would have to pay more than $750,000. But even assuming they're considering this plan, they may be content to just pay the $750,000 and go on record as initiating the separation.
Tracy imitation:
Can I a guy get into the 9th without learning to pitch in the 8th? I don't think you can say that. No.
Which of the players you mentioned would've considered opting-out midway through their contracts?
Tracy either accepts the money and 'uses his out clause', or gets fired and gets nothing (once he is hired elsewhere).
The Dodgers either pay $750k and save face by making it look like Tracy's decision, or save the money and have to deal with the backlash.
The only other scenario would be if Tracy denied the offer, was fired and sat out a year to collect the $750k. But why would he do that when he has no idea what the market will look like after 2006, and also lose a year work?
Also: Has anyone else encountered a problem logging in to B'Toaster when using the Firefox browser?
DePodesta is sure making the media rounds. Looks to me like a 'charm offensive.' My guess is, he's reaching out to both media and fans in advance of a Tracy decision that he knows will result in a lot of criticism. It's another sign that Tracy's going to get bought out.
"Did I want more years? Yes. Did I get them? No. Am I leaving? Yes. Is that a wad of cash in my pocket? Follow me to Tiffany's and you'll see."
to indict somebody," Lott told FOX News. "He can indict a ham sandwhich
before most grand juries. When you look at the record of this
prosecutor, I can't say I'm particularly surprised."
Classic. Good to see that the smear campaign against justice has begun.. what... three minutes after the announcement?
"Her father is the district attorney!"
How ironic that this is commonly referred to as the "gold Rolex."
Dodgers.com: "Ironically, the last pitcher to make it to the Dodgers with less experience [than Kuo] was Darren Dreifort, who...later underwent two Tommy John operations."
If DePodesta wasn't on a "charm offensive" you'd accuse him of ducking the press.
One of the great Baseball Toaster sites, its level of detail and sabermetric devotion is both awesome and terrifying. We don't really like the Dodgers much, and we still can't stop reading.
The player would've had to sign a long term contract, but then seen a significant increase in value for it to be justified.
So, for example, Izturis signed a 3yr/$9M contract this offseason. What if he had hit .340 and won a gold glove this year? He may have opted-out had he the option. This would've hurt the team.
JD Drew, however, needed to have 2 years of such success that opting out would earn him better than the remaining 3yrs/$33M. That's a pretty tall order for a 31-year old OF with gimpy knees, elbows, and shoulders.
If Drew hits .320/.410/.550 over a full season I can easily see someone offering him 4 years at 11 million or 3 years for 12 mil. He had the one great year for Atlanta and got 5 years 55 million from us. Giles will probably get 3 years at around 10 and he's 34. I wouldn't be suprised to see Hideki Matsui get a 5 year deal at around 11 mil and he's 31. And if I were the team buying them I offer them player opt out clauses for every year of their contract. And they would take them cuz there's no downside in having them as a player.
Excerpt from a Dodgers.com article:
When you are going on your fifth year of injury rehabilitation, you really have nothing, if not hope. Kuo said he has been counseled frequently by Dreifort, which is by design.
-01/16/2004
http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/la/news/la_news.jsp?ymd=20040116&content_id=628726&vkey=news_lafext=.jsp
or http://tinyurl.com/85k2h
This article also has a picture of Kuo standing beside Nomo and Thurston's quote about Kuo's first professional game when he struck out 7 of the 10 he faced and than blew out his arm.
Thanks Adam. In the meantime, I won't get my hopes up that Depo will actually say anything interesting or enlightening.
10) Greatest player ever: Lenny "Nails" Dykstra
9) On the Drew signing: "Man, I was so 'faced!"
8) Twice made love to a werewolf
7) Continually calling NPR host Kitty Felde, "Honey Can"
6) Spreadwhat? Spread...sheet? Huh?
5) Still can't help cracking up at the mention of former Seattle pitcher Dick Pole
4) For ten years, wrestled in Mexico under the name "El Tornado"
3) Always loved the roller derby
2) Came to NPR studio wearing T-shirt whose back says, "If you can read this, the bitch fell off"
1) Announces that starting next spring, he and Tracy are switching jobs...and wives!!!
Wow. No need to post the actual transcript: it will be inevitably anti-climactic.
But back to the point - there are two circumstances that I can see a player opting out of a mega deal:
1. The market has turned around and multiple teams are offering long-term, 9 figure deals again.
2. The player makes "the leap" and goes from being great, to being legendary.
In both of these scenarios, I see this clause as a negative for the team. Either the team has to replace the good player in an inflated market (#1) or has to replace a HOFer making a now-bargain of a contract (#2).
It's when a player grossly miscalculates his worth by opting out that it becomes favorable for the team (like what would happen if Drew were to opt out).
I assume (careful!) that most players would not forego guaranteed money on a mega-deal to earn slightly more incremental dollars.
I think that the negatives in scenario's 1 and 2 outweigh the possible benefit of a stupid player, and that these opt-outs should be used very cautiously. Basically, don't offer one if you think the player might justifiably use it.
This is an article of faith when dealing with a Boras client.
The Dodgers have a lot of problems, but replacing Drew doesn't need to be one of them.
Beltran aside (who's contract could cause the market to move even further in the owner's direction) the last 3 superstar hitters on the market have been Guerrero, Tejada, and Sheffield. Guerrero and Tejada both trump Drew in terms of productivity and youth, and they got similar 6/$72M and 5/$60M contracts respectively. And these guys are MVPs.
Sheffield, who is older and plays RF not CF, but nonetheless is more productive and proven than Drew, only got 3/$39M(?) (and that was from the Yankees!).
Drew needs to kick it up a notch, and become a bonafide superstar next year to justify opting out.
The forecast for next quarter.
It's "eeehhhhhhhhh, could be worse, but it won't be that bad."
I stay away from Jim Tracy discussions for the most part, but I think a parting of the ways would serve everyone better.
I should be going out to the Stadium tonight for one last time. If I'm not asleep. The conference started at 7 am.
Yes.
He's [Giles] another Karros.
Oh no, no, no, no.
JMK, your logic is very interesting. The one-way opt-out appears to give all the leverage to the player, but if he in fact exercises it, the risk of back-end disappointment shifts to another team. It's a baseball variant of the Greater Fool theory.
It was early so the guy may have been talking about the Dodgers.
Summary to come - should be fun.
One more out -- looks like the only way we see Neifi! is if Macias can get one base and tie the game. Kids across America are huddled under the covers with their transistor radios under the covers a-hoping . . .
"You're risking a patient's life!!"
Any guesses what this year's Annoying Fox Commercial will be?
Did "Commander in Chief" have any scenes like that?
1) Drew has two "legendary" years. This may well prompt him to opt out. The upside is the Dodgers benefit from his incredible production, at a lower price than they otherwise would have had to pay, and can then spend the 11 million/year someplace else. The only risk is that there has been a sizeable shift in the market. But, as we know, there are ALWAYS cheaper options out there, if you know where to look. Plus, not very many players begin sustained legendary performance levels
at age 29.
2) Drew has two very good years (i.e. earning or somewhat out-earning his pay). Again, the Dodgers benefit from his production, at a lower price than they otherwise would have paid. There is something of a risk of an opt out (or perhaps, more likely, the threat of an opt-out to try to get an extension). But, as others have said, this is less likely, since the marginal gain of opting out is likely fairly small, given his age and good-but-not-otherworldy production level, and Drew wouldn't be able to actually receive offers until he opted out of the contract.
3) Drew underperforms his contract. Dodgers suffer, and Drew is unlikely to opt-out. Here, the Dodgers are stuck with the contract. The team is in the same position as if there were no opt-out, but they will be paying Drew less money than they otherwise would.
I may be missing something, but it seems like it's not a bad decision. As with any guaranteed contract, there is risk involved, but it's not Darren Dreifort-level risk.
Dodgers
Arested Development
Lost
NCIS
CSI-original
Survivor
Amazing Race
Curb your Enthusisam
Sopranos/Deadwood-when on
Real Time with Bil Mahr
and my personal, dodger related TV show is:
Without A Trace
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/john_donovan/09/28/free.agents/index.html
He was essentially a free agent last year, coming of a career season. He got exactly how many offers from other teams?
Did he not get low-balled and finally accept a contract from the Dodgers?
I think this whole "Tracy is well respected. He's as safe as a kitten" is bunk.
If Tracy couldnt capitalize off last year's success, he's not going to do any better this season.
DePo will have to fire him.
No wonder DePo is the most hated man in baseball. He forgot he was casting the next CSI.
*TRANSCRIPT BEGINS*
KF: Good news LA baseball fans - the LAAofA clinched a division title. Whose to blame for Dodger suckitude? Sportswriters say, "DePo." I can use phrases like "Billy Beane," and sound like I know what I'm talking about, right?
Welcome, Paul DePodesta! Why do people hate you so much?
PD: Change is hard, most Dodger change was not willful: I inherited 16-20 FAs when I took over. We decided to change the foundation for long-term succes. Sadly that foundation had more holes than "M. Night Shyamalan's The Village." Success takes more than 2 years (hi Jon!)
KF: Is "look toward 2007-2008" the master plan, or do you plan on eternal suckage?
PD: Option A. We reject the idea of "rebuilding" and accepting short-term failure. Our fans deserve nothing less than well-funded short-termed mediocrity. In 2004, the balancing act worked, this year it...didn't. Once the kids come up, the balancing act should go away, because few things are more rock-solid than the performance of ballplayers in their early 20s.
KF: These kids are great. Duaner Snachez - amazing. Jose Cruz Jr. - also an amazing kid! Will you keep them?
PD: Cruz is older than me! Navarro: awesome! Houlton, Robles, Kuo, Broxton, Osoria, Schmoll - awesome awesome awesome. All your base are belong to our farm system. Logan White and Terry Collins deserve the credit. Dodger farm system as loaded as it's ever been. AA guys starting to trickle in. This September was very exciting for us. Jose who?
KF: Are you a Moneyball computer nerd? Have you no soul? Why not just give Jose Lima some bucks, deserved or not? He gave the fans a lot of intangibles.
PD: This is a misconception: herpes is very tangible. We use computers, but it's really just another tool, like a PDA, or a file server. Our scouting staff is like two overclocked Opterons of awesome! Statisticry is the hot beef patty, scouting the lettuce & tomato: McDePo keeps the hot side hot, and the cool side cool. Character and chemistry? Winning creates chemistry. Chemistry sustains winning. Lose 100 games and praise the chemistry taking place in my pants, Cubs fan.
KF: Do we have callers?
Caller Chris: Moneyball ya ya, you paid Derek Lowe $64 M, JD Drew never completed a full season, minor leagues [garbled]
PD: Lowe got $36M (< $64) - he had the "Lowe"-est Era on our staff. I'm punny!
KF: Your payroll is 100M, so Lowe gets 36% of that? I eat crayons!
PD: JD Drew stat stat stat, Bradley, Gagne Izturis are all in their 20s, had career lows in appearances due to injuries. To me, this is good news.
KF: I heart Milton Bradley [ed. - WTF?!!!!] - will he be back?
PD: [Qualified maybe] - surgery went well. Get healthy, then get back to being nuttier than a shithouse rat.
KF: Callers?
CALLER VISHAL [ringer alert!]: Paul, do you have any idea how cute you are? Noone understands Moneyball like I do Paul! So many injuries! Reduce the restraining order to 25 yards please!!!! Jim Tracy = Yoko! I have no question!!!!!!
KF: Care to talk about Jim tracy's contract situation?
PD: I love Jim Tracy's managing more than oxygen. What out clause? Oh, that one. We're dealing with it. Pun 2.0! ROFL!!!
KF: Why did you screw Ross Porter?
PD: Ross who? Did I mention that we now interview every player in spring training, and even do exit interviews? Say, Kitty, were your eyes always that blue? Whut up Vishal!!! Moneyball is about efficiency. Everyone will be on the same page.
KF: Did Gagne hurt his arm because he was used too much? I guess what I'm saying is, did your accursed GMing result in too many 9th-inning leads?
PD: Dan Evans had a lot of 9th inning leads, too. Which means nothing.
CALLER HOWARD [ringer alert!]: The Trade ate my soul. A real man have gotten a decent catcher. You just stood an ironing board behind home plate and called it a catcher!!
PD: Phillips has his problems, but isn't 15 months a long time to wait for a phone call? Navarro kicks ass...
KF: Preach it!
PD: ...Russell Martin also kicks much ass. It's OK, boys, you're both daddy's favorite! As for The Trade, we needed a starting pitcher more than a catcher who goes into cryo-freeze every September 1st. Burn! IM 133t H4X0R.
KF: How much do players or their agents get involved in trades?
PD: Very little. It's mostly club-to-club unless a no-trade clause or pending contract extension is in play.
KF: Scott Boros [sic]
PD: [whines like abused puppy]
KF: Luke Hochevar
PD: Hochevar (pronounced like "Ho Chi Min") is not in class, not eligible for spring baseball at UT, our window is now as long as an Anaheim ticket line. Scott Boras: Pwned!!!
CALLER ROBERT: I'm not a DePo hater. Still not sure I have a question. Oh yes: Mr. DePodesta, why are you such a liar? How can you torture us by not playing studly Jason Repko and to a lesser extent studly Willy Aybar? Why does Valentin get so many ABs year after year? Smallball rules, Phillips sucks, what was my question?!!
PD: Repko was weaned three weeks before spring training. Valentin was a win-now signing, a real character guy, and a hell of a mustache. Jason who?
KF: Angels going to the playoffs get your goat?
PD: Ozzie Guillen going to the playoffs gets my goat.
KF: Good night and good luck.
PD: Nanoo, nanoo.
*TRANSCRIPT ENDS*
and the laughs. That depo, He so crazy.
Not to nitpick, but I think Guerrero's contract was 5 years for $70 million, with an option for a sixth year (and possibly a seventh).
Sounds exactly like something Joe McDonnell would spew.
Ahhhh, a bandwagoner she is, no doubt. I wonder if she knows who Chili Davis, Andy Etchebarren, and Gary DiSarcina are? I would bet the house that she doesn't, like many "avid" Angel fans. Ask them to name even five players from the 1999 team and see how many can do it.
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