It is about time. And the climb's not so much a climb as it is just getting on the chairlift to the top of the ski run, like everyone else; the Dodgers' day pass gives them that right. The question for the Dodgers is, will they successfully negotiate the slaloms in 2006? Or will they do another Sonny Bono act?

Excellent observations. Tracy does seem to continually get the long end of the stick with the media; but you are correct, he has perpetrated questionable managerial acts all year, the greatest of which you only hinted at (never letting the Chopper hit his stride, terrible management of the starting staff). I believe this team was bad because of injuries but I do NOT believe that this team was better because of Jim Tracy. I am sure Depo will be lambasted for Tracy's removal, but I am even more hopeful that he will get this team turned around for next year, ideally, obtaining a manager with
Tracy's ego-stroking abilities (hopefully calming both the returning Kent and Bradley) and an understanding of how this team was built and how this team can win.

That's interesting, Jon. Just how many baseball writers outside of Southern California paid attention to the Dodgers after May? Except maybe for the Kent-Bradley flap. Then the Dodgers devolved into irrelevance.

It was sort of like trying to examine closely why the Tigers were bad. Or the Reds. Or the Pirates.

Not many people care outside of L.A.

1. scareduck
Or will they do another Sonny Bono act?

LOL. Good line.

Interesting POV re: Tracy/Trammell. I'd like to hear a "TigerThoughts" critique of Trammell as field strategist.

I just wonder, what were they expecting of him? He made it through the disaster that was 2003 (119 losses), rebounded with a solid mediocre year in 2004, and had the Tigers at .500 in August.

Tough crowd in Detroit, but I guess with hockey back...

Or will they do another Sonny Bono act?

Ouch. Has enough time passed yet?

I think more people DO care, obviously not as much as they would, say, if the Yankees had failed as miserably. But LA, as a city, as a brand, is a juggernaut, and I think the dissection of their failure will be much more thorough and cutting than that of Detroit, Cincinatti or Pittsburgh...even as I write this I assume some air of geographical superiority, and that is why people outside of LA will care...they want to slow down, at least a few MPH, to check out the luxury SUV, lamely on its back, hood ornament dangling, engine still smoking.

You ARE right, however, in that these reporters will make snide comments, but, for the most part, will be entirely off in their analysis and recommendations. They have paid attention only close enough to report that we stink, but their assesment of why, will, accordingly, stink.

I suspect that Detroit management smelled an opportunity to get Leyland so they had to jettison Trammell. They may not have felt that Trammell was doing such a bad job, just that they think Leyland is better. We'll see. Detroit seems to like those old, crusty managers like Sparky.

>>And so it's going to be to most of the western world if the Dodgers don't retain Jim Tracy.<<

J: I think I had to read that sentence five or six times before I understood it. One of the good writers on the 'net....are you sure you're OK? Maybe feeling "relaxed" isn't good. :-)

"But at the risk of speaking too soon, the worst is behind us."

I am afraid, Jon, that you'll be eating your words next May.

Final Dodger Win Shares:
http://tinyurl.com/ann4z

Raise your hand if you thought in March that Willy Aybar would have more win shares than Eric Gagne.

(Sorry for you non-TinyURL folks, but this one would've really screwed up the page width.)

9 Don't be afraid...

From the silver lining department...the Dodgers spent a year giving their bench for 2006 a lot of playing experience.

3 people outside LA do care, so long as the evidence perpetuates the negative thoughts directed our way

I haven't posted here in a while, but I will mention that I didn't approve of many of Tracy's moves and still think that Depodesta made a ton of mistakes in the off-season.

Even if the team sucked (and, in my opinion, the team that Depo assembled was quite awful even before the injuries), Tracy never established any consistency in his line up. In many ways, he was as bad as Depo, forever looking for that "perfect match up."

The best way to mess up team chemistry is to constantly move players around. Tracy should have established his starters and went with it. I'm not a Choi fan in the least, but he should have started every game. That way, he gets experience. Putting a bad catcher at first does nothing to help the team for the future.

13 - "sucked" and "awful" are pretty strong words. Did you really think that this team was Tampa Bay-bad?

>>----
>>And so it's going to be to most of the western world if the Dodgers don't retain Jim Tracy.<<

J: I think I had to read that sentence five or six times before I understood it. One of the good writers on the 'net....are you sure you're OK? Maybe feeling "relaxed" isn't good. :-)
----<<

I had similar trouble, but I don't generally say anything about such stuff; I have written grafs ten times as tortured, but, shall we say, my modest readership generally doesn't call me on it.

13 The best way to mess up team chemistry is to constantly move players around.

How do you know that? And what is chemistry and why does it matter?

Had Tracy been more consistent with his lineups, and the team won a couple more games possibly as a result, the complaint would be that he's too rigid and refuses to do anything to shake things up. This sort of critique weakens the actual case against Tracy (or, if one is so inclined, against DePodesta). The specific comments about Choi and Phillips are more helpful.

Feh.

And we'll walk down the avenue again
And we'll sing all the songs from way back when...

There were a few of things to be glad about:
Navarro looks good, Robles was a nice surprise (and to me clearly the best fielder at SS), no let down from Kent's consistent years, Perez really is a good bat, and Aybar looks ready.

If nothing else, I really think the injuries should return to the mean. One good pitcher and I can see good things happening even if nothin' else changes-- and that's not likely.

Well, looking at the teams' repective records..... :D

Seriously, I was comparing this team to the team from last year. I know a lot of you Depo-fans will disagree and say that team over-achieved, but, in my opinion, the Dodgers did not improve during the off-season. If anything, the team had more questions on Opening Day than at the end of the season.

If the Dodgers are going to fire Tracy, why don't they just do it today?

If the Dodgers do fire Tracy tomorrow and the national media tries to figure it out, I hope the media finds Jon and a few other thoughtful bloggers who can give a less emotional perspective on 2005. The lamentations from the Plaschkes in the media need to be countered.

If DT had Sitrick working for us, Sitrick would be spending today sending out e-mails to national sports reporters touting Jon's expertise and authority to speak for a segment of Dodger fandom, and letting them know that this fair-minded, thoughtful and influential new media pioneer will be available for interviews all week.

In the long run, as the cliche goes, the winners write the history. If the Dodgers are successful under a new manager, then Tracy's reign will be judged more harshly in the future than it is now. But in the short run, it might be good to think how some of the more public folks on this site, and Jon especially, could be positioned to give the counter-spin.

20 - Question that I'm too lazy to Google to find out - who is "Sitrick"?

19 - I'm not sure why they wouldn't. But the day's not over yet.

Very seldom am I surprised by a manager getting fired. Tracy has a fairly sizable group that wants him fired. And my guess is that nearly every manager in mlb has a similar group after their head also.

Tracy refuses to rate himself. From today's LAT:

"I don't like to sit here and grade myself. I'm not good at that," he said. "I'm not going there. That would compare and contrast me with the GM, and I don't want to be part of that."

From a quick survey of Tiger-related blogs, it looks like the fans there regret but basically support the firing of Trammell. He had defenders, but they seemed lukewarm about him. The phrase I saw repeated several times was "the team didn't live up to expectations." (It's true, they did spend a lot of dough on free agents, but their choices weren't that smart.)

This is what's going to bite us about Tracy. With the departures of Beltre and Green combined with the injury plague, it's hard to argue that the team didn't live up to expectations. The only ray of hope for the 2005 season was the incompetence of the rest of the division. To keep Tracy from looking like DePo's scapegoat and a public martyr, the point that needs to be stressed in the media is that there were sharp philosophical differences between Tracy and the front office, that Tracy himself acknowledged these differences and made it clear that he was not inclined to change his ways, so therefore DePo had no choice but to let him go. DePo's statements this past week have muddied that message unfortunately (I might fire him...or I might extend his contract!), but philosophical differences is where the focus needs to be.

The Dodgers record this year is not Tracy's fault, and DePo should make that clear. This move is about the future, not the past.

P.S. Sitrick is a PR agency that specializes in representing companies in "crisis." They charge the highest fees in the industry. And they're on a retainer with the Dodgers going back about 10 months.

Don Baylor resigned as Seattle's hitting coach.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2179801

"I have decided not to return as hitting coach so that I will be able to pursue other opportunities," said Baylor, who managed the Rockies from 1993-1998 and the Cubs from 2000-2002.

How could he be in demand anywhere? Mariners hit an AL low .256 with 130 homers and 699 runs, according to the above article.

And what is chemistry and why does it matter?

Chemistry does matter in baseball.
It matters because it's non-verifiable hocus-pocus that lazy writers writers like Bill Plaschke can twist to their latest prejudice. I expect to hear a lot about "chemistry" after VJ day tomorrow.

26 - Maybe that's why he wants out.

He's been a pretty respected hitting instructor, IIRC. He opened Gallaraga's stance in COL, helped Chipper from the right-side in Atl, and was hitting coach with StL when they started killing the ball.

25 I'd say Fernando Vina and Troy Percival lived up to most people's expectations of them.

-----

FWIW, Jon, I had no trouble with the sentence that apparently bothered other readers.

28 Did he also teach Biggio to get all those HBPs?

Don Baylor got Colorado to the playoffs once. That should count for something. He also ended up having to use Lance Painter as a pinch hitter at the end of a playoff game.

But he would not be all that popular among the DT crowd. I'm sure the Cubs fans could tell us a few stories.

In 1995 when the Rockies made the playoffs, they also lead the league in runs scored and were SECOND in sacrifices.

27 By "VJ" do you mean Victory over Jim?

26 Does anyone think there's a chance he got sick of trying to tell the M's new third-baseman/savior not to swing at the low and away garbage slider?

Baylor was unsuccessful in being able to rebreak Beltre's foot.

30 - Ha! Not likely. I'm sure he resents the little armor-plated armadillo. Baylor earned his record the old fashioned way.

Baylor didn't even wear a helmet with earflaps.

http://tinyurl.com/basdg

Not that anyone would like Baylor as a manager, but it would make for some nice symmetry if the Dodgers had a former Angels hero as manager.

But if the Dodgers wanted any Angels person as a manager, they might be better served with Bud Black or Joe Maddon.

By "VJ" do you mean Victory over Jim?
"Indeed." And by extension, victory over Plaschke.

36 I'm rather scared of Maddon. I recall in mid July he made some very dispraging comments about on base percentage.

Don Baylor was a good chemistry guy. He was the one who, in 1988 as a member of the A's, said that his team would rather play the Mets because NY would be more of a challenge.

Once that quote was pinned to the LA clubhouse wall, Dodger test tubes were bubbling over left and right.

I don't think Plaschke will ever unconditionally surrender. The FJT army is probably going to have to invade his office. The casualties will be great, but those of us who survive will be able to see our children grow up in world free of Heart and Soul.

But Baylor did get into 3 World Series with 3 different teams in 3 straight years.

Of course, only of those teams won.

Perhaps a former Angel who would preach OBP would be Tony Phillips. He doens't have a checkered past, does he? :-)

Baylor failed where Paul Molitor failed before him. The M's may just be a terrible hitting team. Granted, Molitor decided he could improve Ichiro's hitting and it was a disaster.

Two comments:
*The more noteworthy news from the Mariners was the resignation of their pitching coach, Bryan Price. Though Price has his detractors, he's developed an incredible track record of developing relievers. Considering that the Dodogers could use some, you could argue the best thing the LAD could do for the pen is to hire Bryan Price. A good discussion of his M's tenure is here:

http://ussmariner.com/?p=2983

I for one, would be a very happy man if the Dodgers could bring Price onboard in some capacity.

It also raises the possibility that Jim Colborn would go to the Mariners? Dan Evans works in the M's front office now, and IIRC Colborn famously is the guy who scouted Ichiro and advised the M's to sign him.

* Since I don't follow the Tigers, is Gibbie still their bench manager? With Trammell gone, is he expected to stay around? Anybody think he'd be a good addition to the Dodgers clubhouse?

I retract my How could he be in demand anywhere? comment. Bob and blue22 have posted enough of Baylor's resume to show me why he'll be in demand somewhere. I hope it's not the Dodgers, but he has a better track record than I recalled.

#25: DePodesta has made a few statements recently that he does not blame Tracy. He said he believed Tracy's done a good job. However, he has also been quoted as saying that Tracy was given a two-year contract for a reason. That is telling.

So much has been made of Tracy and DePodesta not seeing eye to eye. It doesn't sound like they personally dislike each other, but clearly their philosophies differ, especially with Tracy's most recent criticisms.

I recall widespread reports that Dan Evans and Tracy were not even speaking to each other during the last half of the 2003 season and into that off-season. It's not just a personal Tracy vs. DePodesta issue. It's not the first time Tracy has disagreed with the GM.

Were the Dodgers that awful?

Vinnie mentioned in the 9th inning of yesterday's game the totals for 1-run and 2-run losses suffered by the Dodgers this season? I forgot to write them down. Does anyone know what those numbers were? Were they unusually high compared to past performances of the team or the league in general? Does that mean anything?

From my viewpoint as a fan and nothing more - I blame the injuries. I can't imagine the Dodgers doing this poorly with Gagne, Drew, Bradley and Izturis playing close to a full season.

Would the Dodgers have done any better if they had kept Beltre, Green, LoDuca, Roberts, Cora et al? If you put those guys back in the lineup this season - I bet the Padres still win the division.

At least DePodesta has a long-term plan. And his short-term plan has been dictated by his insistence on not giving up on the long-term. Yes, some of his short-term fixes did not pan out. But, I don't remember Evans or Malone or Lasorda ever providing us with anything but a shoot from the hip, what's hot today kind of management style - or in Evans case - do nothing and hope for the best. I look to the Dodgers future, and I am planning on wearing shades.

Gibson was the bench coach at the start of the year, but they switched him to hitting coach, which he didn't like very much at the time.

I don't think Gibson liked living in L.A. very much and I would be surprised if he moved out here unless McCourt offered him a Holmby Hills mansion.

My view of Team Chemistry is slightly different than most (I think). I don't think that just because you have character guys, you'll be okay. If the character guys suck, they suck.

Team Chemistry for me is how a team works together over the long haul. If the players are a bunch of jerks, but they work well together, that's fine.

The problem with Tracy's constant switching of players is that very few of the players are able to get comfortable with their respective team mates. For example, if I'm a shortstop and I know the abilities of the third baseman, I will know what I need to do from my position. Familiarity comes from playing together.

However, if the third baseman is constantly changing, it will be a lot more difficult to evaluate where he will be on any given play.

In my opinion, Tracy constantly moving players around hurt the team.

44 - "I recall widespread reports that Dan Evans and Tracy were not even speaking to each other during the last half of the 2003 season and into that off-season. "

I believe - correct me if I am wrong - that was actually based only on one unsourced report by Bob Nightengale that got repeated and exaggerated but never attributed, nonetheless working its way into history.

25 - I don't see how anyone can say that this team on paper at the beginning the season was much worse than last year's? Who was proven last year? Green was waning, Beltre was not yet proven, Finley wasn't on the team. If anything, this year's team under-acheived far, far more than last year's team over-acheived. Izturis, Choi, Drew, Kent, Bradley, Valentin, Werth, Phillips had a good chance to be formidable if it remained healthy. It boggles my mind that people don't think that lineup, if healthy, could have won this division, ailing Giants or not.

This may sound like support for Tracy, but it is not. Regardless of injury, Tracy did not manage this team as per the actual components. Tracy is a great ego-stroker, but no moneyball manager.

47 If you mean "chemistry" as an opportunity to get comfortable in your position and with the players immediately around you on the field, I agree that chemistry is important. From that standpoint, Tracy didn't give He Seop Choi much help with his "chemistry" by constantly jerking him around. But if it's about sunny personalities who are first in line for the high fives, I don't think chemistry makes much difference.

From where I sit at the bottom of the hill looking up, the most encouraging factors are (1) the division is terrible and not likely to get much better. If we were in the Central I would just stay where I splated and avoid the disappointment of next year. (2) although theoretically possible, it is highly unlikely that the Dodgers will face similar injury problems. When your relief pitcher trips coming out of the bullpen and tears his Achilles you hit rock bottom. (3) I expect someone will remove some, maybe all, of the Jasons. They need to go in this order: Grabs, Phillips, Repko, Werth. (4) Depo will make at least one big move for an impact bat or arm; (5) part of the difficulty of this season was the personal changes leading into 2005. Seeing individual players I had come to root for traded or not resigned left a bad taste. That bad taste has dissipated. I am not attached to any individual on this years team. I am only attached to THE team. Thus, if there is a trade, than so be it. That too will make this off season easier.

With or without Tracy, I think there is a lot to look forward to. More than that though, by the time next March rolls around, I will have forgotten the scrapes and bruises from the tumble and splat and hope will again spring eternal.

BYW, I had no problem with the sentence and still don't see the problem.

49 It boggles my mind that people don't think that lineup, if healthy, could have won this division, ailing Giants or not.

I think the concern from the beginning was whether we really had enough pitching. Injuries were the #1 obstacle, but I think it still would've been an uphill battle with a rotation that started the year Lowe/Weaver/Perez/Erickson and ?? until Penny came back. Even after Penny came back, the Dodgers' rotation was too inconsistent for a champion, unless you could count on scoring 6+ runs per game. Before the injuries--not likely. After the injuries--not possible.

from dodgers.com

"and another $2.5 million savings from the anticipated departure of Bradley."

What the hell is this all about? Why is everyone so quick to escort Milton out the door? He was injured most of the season, and therefore won't garner that much more in salary arbitration, and I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a better all-around center fielder for that kind of cash. He's volatile, yes. Competitive? You bet. But all the greats are a tad eccentric.

He clearly loves LA and is passionate about this team. I would hate to see Mitlon flourish somewhere else. Kent has one more year in Dodger blue, Milton could have a career. Can't we find someway to overlook a silly argument between two frustrated competitors? And with all his antics, he was STILL less of a distraction than last year. I mean, what can you do when your wife, "acts the damn fool again!?"

The only viable reason I think we should even consider not welcoming him back with open arms, is if we think his physical condition could be detereorating.

Thoughts?

The giants rotation was better? Umm...gagne?

Team Chemistry for me is how a team works together over the long haul. If the players are a bunch of jerks, but they work well together, that's fine.

In football (look at McNabb and TO this year), hoops (Shaq/Kobe), or hockey, yes. Heck, even in soccer, and doubles tennis. But not in baseball. Other than maybe turning double plays, there is basically no teamwork in baseball. It's a team sport, but each and every action is individualized. Put it this way - almost anything that a player does that is good for his own stats is good for the team, and vice versa. Selfishness has no downside.

I can only think of a couple minor exceptions that rarely come up: little guys swinging for the fences when there are runners to advance or bad pitches to avoid (tho most of the time, that's bad for them individually too), and bunting for basehits with runners on 2nd at the end of a game (Ichiro got blasted for doing this a couple times). But those goofy exceptions prove the rule: there's no teamwork in baseball. Therefore, there is no "working together," just "working next to each other." There's also no way to slack off (free-ride) without hurting yourself individually. The whole is precisely the sum of its parts.

I think I'm repeating myself. I'll stop now.

#44: I can't recall Nightengale's name being associated with it. Well, I bought it, whatever the original source had been.

53 Not choke her?

Also, all his baggage aside, Bradley has the injury-prone jacket in my opinion. I don't have a use for someone who is brittle AND a head case.

Still, I do not want him on the team regardless of his talent.

52 - I think it would've been a heck of a race between the Giants and Dodgers, if Bonds/Benitez/Gagne/Drew were healthy all year.

But even before the injuries hit, the rotation really dug the Dodgers a hole. That's the unit I'm most disappointed with, and by the time they had turned it around too much ground had been lost.

Injuries to the lineup were really just the deathblow on an already wasted season.

53 I think the "Bradley is gone" presumption stems from the team's reaction to his racism accusation and to his domestic abuse problems. McCourt and DePodesta said something about the importance of character (not chemistry) at that time, which made everyone conclude that MB is following Jose Guillen out of (greater) LA.

#50: Perhaps a better word than "chemistry" would be "continuity." And I agree--using a myriad of line-ups has always exasperated me.

53 - The way I see it, Cruz Jr. and Bradley are occupying the same roster spot. If the Dodgers decide they've had enough of MB, Cruz Jr. slides right into his spot in RF and 5th in the lineup (well my lineup anyway).

Don't we remember Plaschke's Opening Day screed about how the Dodgers weren't going to be turning as many DPs because Kent "had to learn new dance steps" with Izturis. Meanwhile, Omar Vizquel was beyond reproach.

For some reason, the Yankees have gotten by with a plethora of second basemen during Derek Jeter's career.

And there are never statements positively or negatively about the Cabrera-Kennedy combination in Anaheim.

I think depite Kent's great season, he still had to play in the shadow of Alex Bleepin' Cora!

57 I also think that chemistry gets more attention than it warrants because sportwriters are constantly harping on it. And the reason may be that it's fairly easy to observe players' personalities and interactions when you're hanging around the batting cage or having a post-game beer. Stuff like OPS and VORP is more abstract and demands greater attention. It's probably harder to write about, too.

All Dodger second basemen perpetually play in the shadow of Jody Reed.

For a listen to Andy LaRoche courtesy of MinorLeagueBaseball as he talks about his season.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/index.jsp

#57: "Not choke her"--my thoughts exactly. Bradley is too much of a lightning rod. It was encouraging to read the Opening Day article on him, saying he had turned a corner and had finally gotten it. But it was even more disheartening to read about his slipping up again, first with Kent, then with the repeated domestic problems.

Some of his statements have been downright irrational, and his personal problems might even go deeper than any of us suspected. The Dodgers need to cut their losses with him. It's too bad because Bradley could've owned the town.

make that 55 :)

"DePodesta said he thinks the Dodgers can overcome their woes by returning to full strength next year, and he also plans to pursue a power hitter this winter."

So when should we start talking about Dunn again?

54 The Giants' rotation didn't turn out to be better, but you were talking about the perspective from the beginning of the season. At that point, it seemed like the Dodgers had a rotation consisting of four #3 pitchers and a #-5. At least the Giants and Padres each had an 'ace.' Looking back, I think Lowe pitched a little better than I'd expected, Penny a little worse, Weaver about the same, and Perez a lot worse. Of Houlton, Erickson, Thompson, Jackson and Alvarez, what can you say? Houlton and Jackson learned a lot, but didn't contribute much. Thompson gave a few glimpses of promise, but then he got hurt. Erickson was the Great Satan. Alvarez was too banged up.

Losing Gagne was huge, too. By the second half of the season, the 'pen seemed to get a lot more reliable, but a good pen doesn't win you games if a) your starters dig a hole and b) your hitters can't hit their way out of it.

I think for the Dodgers to jettison Bradley, they'd better have superior options to Cruz Jr., Werth, Ledee, Repko. Any one of those players would be welcome as a 4th OF, but an outfield that starts both Cruz Jr, of whom we saw better than we likely would in the future, AND Werth, who looked abominable all season except for that one day he ate a bunch of peppers or some such, is a disaster.

Ideally, we'd pick up someone who could really thump, retain Milton and Cruz Jr, deal Werth and--good luck--Repko, but I doubt it'll happen. I bet McCourt's gonna do his media-friendly purge of MB and we'll be left with just the outfield that so frightens me, above.

68 - Dunn, Abreu, Giles, Matsui. Take your pick and plug 'em into the 4th slot and LF.

Just don't say Jacque Jones.

But, of course, we'll probably end up with Bobby Kielty for the league minimum. :-D

69 - Top to bottom, the Dodgers had the best rotation to start the season, IMO. Granted we had 4 #2's or 3's, but the Giants and Pads had a #1 each, and a bunch of stiffs.

Of course, we didn't know Lowry would make the leap this year, giving them a solid #2 in the 2nd half.

I still don't know how the Padres backed into the playoffs though.

70 - I think a portion of the fans were upset that the Dodgers weren't at 100M this year, and the rest of them were reasonably patient. If the Dodgers go a second straight year at ~80M, aren't the reasonably patient fans going to start wondering?

71 - I'll take "Major League outfields that rhyme with Bunn, Brew, and Babreu" for 100, please.

I don't see a problem with a Bradley, Drew, Cruz Jr. outfield. Really, we would be VERY competitive with Choi, Kent, Robles, and a decent free agent third baseman IF we can seriously shore up the pitching staff with a free agent starter and a healthy Gagne, the young-uns should more than solidify the middle innings. Our line-up was scoring enough runs at the beginning of the season and can again, if healthy. With a strong rotation and healthy gagne in the pen, we can return to our 04orm.

74 - I'm basing my opinions on Bradley being gone.

In a sense, I would consider him to be one of the "new" acquistions in 71.

Things could be worse. We could have Carl Everett.

http://tinyurl.com/by46o

74 I sense a lack of confidence in Jose Cruz, Jr. He seemed like he was on a one-way ticket to Palookaville until he had a nice six weeks for the Dodgers. To assume he can deliver Bradley's production over the course of a year seems like a leap. It might be more accurate to look at him as a healthier Ricky Ledee.

57 - But she was acting a damn fool!

74 I think that's a pretty accurate call. None the less, they should try to keep him.

77. dzzrtRatt

I always consider the two to be twins...

Cruz is a streak hitter and would be a capable OF along side two other stars. If he has to hit 5th your looking at a long season.

77 - Bradley played in 75 games with .835 OPS, as opposed to Cruz's 46 games and .930 OPS with LA this year.

Cruz played in over 150 games the previous two years, and sported an OPS of over .750 (comparable to Bradley's career OPS).

What makes you think Bradley can produce like Cruz over the course of a full year? ;-)

80 - re: Cruz in the 5th spot. "My" lineup next year goes:

Perez/Aybar (whoever wins the ST battle for 3B)
Drew
Kent
Big stick in LF
Cruz
Choi
Navarro
Robles

against righties.

I went out to grab some lunch and listened to 570am. I was mildly surprised to hear "Vick the Brick" picking the Padres to beat the Cardinals in the opening round series.

You might ask yourself, "why are the Padres favored in Vick's mind"? The answer would be "Dave Roberts", of course.

This is the same Dave Roberts who only stole 23 out of 35 bases this year and has a strained quad right now.

Does 570 have a drug testing program for their on air talent?

82. blue22

Put Robles hitting 2nd and move everyone down one.

#83: Anything can happen in a short series, but a team with Pedro Astacio starting game #2 doesn't inspire confidence. Vic the Brick is two bricks short of a load.

84 - Sorry Robles is the worst hitter in the lineup and therefore gets the lowest spot.

This will not be open for discussion. ;-)

#82: Choi hitting 2nd would be better, as he hit over .300 in that spot this year. I'd go with that at the beginning.

45. the dodgers this year were 20-23 in one run games and 16-25 in two run games. Thats 48 of 91 losses were by 1 or 2 runs. Ive posted here many times how the biggest reason for this season's dissapointment has been the bullpen. This season there were 84 games decided by 1 or 2 runs, winning .429% of them. Last year there were 72 games decided by 1 or 2 runs, but the winning percentage was .597.

53. Im more interested in trading bradley because he is fragile, and while he can play center; with Drew, Werth, and even possibly Cruz around, its not that important to the dodgers.

77. Cruz is a significanty better player than Ledee. Really it should be no suprise that Depo acquired him as he is a big secondary skills hitter. You could expect a .270-.280 eqa from him, the average eqa from a corner outfield slot is .271, so Cruz looks to me like an average or better corner outfielder. If he likes playing in LA, and can come cheaply, id rather have him than get into a bidding war with SD over giles, or NY over matsui(assuming matsui is really a free agent).

I like the idea of Aybar at third next season. That way we don't block LaRoche with an established vet who's under contract beyond '06. When Kent's contract expires after next season, we move Aybar to second. If we're going to add an expensive bopper, I say go for an outfielder. Ah, the Adam Dunn fantasy...

Picking the Padres is a low risk, high reward choice for anyone in radio. If you're wrong, no one would likely have taken you seriously. If you're right, you're a genius.

It's like saying Arizona will beat USC at the Coliseum Saturday.

87 - It's my opinion that Choi's success in the 2-hole had more to do with small sample sizes more than anything.

I like Drew's OBP in the 2-hole better.

83 Did you not see him steal that base last year? Assuredly as San Diego's starting CF he'd be even better than Boston's pinch runner. Nevermind that the San Diego lineup probably can't afford his bat if they plan to win

84 Please tell me your rationale is not so we can have more hit and runs (I'm not complaining, I actually tend to agree)

90 - What does picking Stanford over (fill in the blank) get me?

[15] well, rob... if you like, we can always start to ;)

89. That seems the most likely scenario for 3rd base next year and beyond, there really arent any 3rd baseman on the market this winter that a significantly better than aybar.

91. I like choi batting second because he's capable of a good OBP%, takes pitches, and due to his uppercut swing and high strikeout totals rarely hits into double plays(assuming a dumbass manager isnt always calling for the hit and run)

I second what everyone's saying about Cruz. It is ludicrous to expect him to play this well for a full season. For some reason, it seems like the same people lambasting DePo for not "knowing" JD Drew's wrist wasn't fastball-proof seem to think he's a moron if he doesn't resign Cruz, who is: on his 6th team in 3 years and widely regarded as the biggest waste of talent in the game.

Nonetheless, even if Cruz reverts to his traditional .795 OPS as opposed to the .923 of his current Dodger stint, he would be sandwiched between Saenz and Choi as their 6th best hitter this year. In other words, re-signing him should not be out of the question, as long as he doesn't ask too much. But if he expects .932 OPS money, by all means allow him to explore other opportunities.

On that note, you know what's scary? Sorting 2005 Dodger team stats to allow only "Qualified Leaders."

89 - That doesn't describe Perez though, as he is not an established vet under long term contract.

Perez hit all year. Aybar hit for less than a month. I'll believe it when he can sustain it.

91 Problem is Drew also has power. And if he's batting 3rd, he'd have a better chance to hit with someone on base, thus providing an extra run. This is the same reason I'm not that fond of Choi in the 2 spot

98 - But everyone knows Drew can't hit with RISP. Duh. ;-)

Stanford at Washington State Saturday!

Not televised in Southern California....

93 - What does picking Stanford over BYU get me?

A pat on the back and a "nice call".

I'm starting to get used to BYU being the doormat of the weak MWC. Sad, really.

97 Yeah, Perez fits bill, too. May the best man win the honor of holding down third until Andy LaRoche arrives. BA Southern League player rankings come out tomorrow.

97. Aybar hasnt been a good hitter for one month. Sure hes been hot, but the skills behind his success in Sept. (plate discipline, contact skills, line drive stroke) he has displayed for 3 years in a row in the minors. He wont be Scott Rolen or Beltre circa 04, but he should be 3-5 wins better than the everyone else that played third this year.

Stanford has never lost to BYU in football:

Record: 2-0-0
2003 - Stanford 18, BYU 14
2004 - Stanford 37, BYU 10

86. blue22

I shouldn't have answered so quickly.

If the Big stick in LF is Giles, then maybe he could hit 2nd. If it is someone like Dunn then you might want to have Kent hitting after him.( to have pitchers throw him strikes) I don't think that there is a set in stone answer to a theortical lineup.

103 - I'm not necessarily saying he's a flash in the pan, but I think that Perez deserves to at least be the incumbent going into ST. If Aybar continues to hit like this (well, not "this" like .925 OPS - something a little more reasonable will do), I'm all aboard.

103 Because he's only 22 and already has decent numbers, Aybar probably does have more potential. But I'm guessing that both Aybar and Perez will get a shot at third next year. BTW, as bad our third base rotation was over the season, their combined OPS was still better than Mr. Beltre's (courtesy of Henson/LA Times).

Just another discussion about Aybar ...

[93] laughed at :)

The Marlins were 2-12 in their last 14 games.

I'm beginning to think that 2 and 12 should be something like the "lucky" numbers on "Lost".

Would anyone actually prefer signing Mueller? Nomah? Trading for Lowell? I guess I'm just curious if anyone actually thinks Aybar/Perez won't be good enough (I think they'll be fine).

Bill Mueller should not be signed until he pronounces his last name correctly.

Short little lunch-break post up top.

Nomar would be a step backwards IMO. Plus, Nomar has offered to play LF if it helps the Cubs resign him, so apparently he likes it there.

Mueller has the lefty thing going for him to complement Perez and be this year's Valentin, but Aybar may have that spot taken already.

I pass on them both, if you think Aybar has what it takes.

Of course, Aybar or Perez could always be tradebait.

111 -

No.
Maybe, but I doubt the money will be right.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!

Aybar/Perez will be "fine," no doubt, but is fine good enough at 3B? I would only be concerned about A&P boys' "audition" being representative of what the competition will be like next year. There are a lot of late-season callups who hit well then struggle the next season.

By the way, if Aybar and Perez are platooned next year, I hereby suggest they be referred to as "Wiltonio."

And on the Nomar front, if he did sign here, expect "Drew Part II: Electric Boogaloo."

115 - Aybarez?

115

I don't want hear the name "Wilton" in any form with any Dodger player ever again.

115 What about "Ayrez" or "Perebar"?

I also kind of like "Antilly."

110- 4 8 15 16 23 42 ... burned into my subconscious forever

111- I don't have a problem with that tandem either. The only players that are free agent OF that I like are Abreu and Matsui. Matsui is a lot like Kent at the plate w/ RISP. You know what he's going to do. What position is Guzman expected to play once he arrives? Corner outfielder, corner infielder or shortstop?

120 - Abreu has long, expensive contract still. He may be on the market this offseason though.

Duke Snider, Reggie Smith, Davey Lopes, Rick Monday, Eric Karros, Jackie Robinson

I keep hitting 'refresh' hoping someone will have heard some Tracy news. Even a half-baked, Vic the Brick-level rumor will do (as long as you cite the source).

122 "Name four illustrious Dodgers and two lousy broadcasters."

120 - To clarify, Abreu still has 2yrs/$28M to go, with a $16M option for a third.

Since the Phils are going to have to pay the majority of Thome's salary to go play somewhere else, the feeling is they'll have to dump salary from somewhere. Abreu is a longshot, but makes the most sense to be traded.

Remembering Sandy:

Pitching in relief, Sandy Koufax finished the first game of a double header against Cincinnati on August 25, 1955. Sandy was dominating. He stuck out Gus Bell on three
pitches, did the same to Milt Batts, and retired the next hitter, former Dodger Rocky Bridges, on a pop fly to first baseman Frank Kellert on a 1-2 count. Despite the fine outing, the Dodgers lost the game 8-5.

Sandy's performance (1 inning pitched, two strikeouts, no hits or walks) led Walt Alston to start the 19 year old left hander two days later. Sandy would turn in a masterpiece in that start that rivaled any he would make in his Hall of Fame career.

Thanks to the New York Times, Koufax, written by Sandy and Ed Linn, and retrosheet.

Stan from Tacoma

I reckon Abreu would be great. Matsui would be better. I'm respectfully baffled by the post upthread (88?) that suggest we'd be better off with Cruz than with Matsui. Isn't that where numberlove gets a little, uh, misleading??

I'd rather have Abreu than Matsui.

127 - I think Matsui is a little overrated due to his spot in that NY lineup (behind Jeter, Arod, and Sheff might be the cushiest spot in recent memory) but I'd take him over Cruz provided he didn't demand some Glaus/Sexson-type deal.

Then again, if he did make it to FA, it means he turned down whatever the Yankees offered him.

The thing about Aybar, at least to me, is that (as Jon has pointed out), he really doesn't seem to have any power at the major league level, so he'll have to keep up a pretty good OBP/BA to be valuable. From watching him as intently as I could over the last month, it seems to me that he has two things going for him:

1) Good batting eye and plate discipline
2) A really uncanny knack for finding the gaps in the infield defense.

But is #2 skill or luck? If the latter, we can't expect him to sustain it over the course of a season, much less a career. If skill, however, then we got something here.

Abreu is the same age as Matsui (3 months older if you must). He's 3 years yuonger than Giles. If the Yankees actually let Matsui go, I see him making around what Abreu makes, only slightly less and a little longer. Giles would be cheaper, but would be more prone to breaking down. Giles had the best OPS this year (.906 to Abreu's .879 and Matsui's .863). Abreu also had 31 SBs, Matsui 2, and Giles 13

Abreu would be the easiest to obtain as there wouldn't be a bidding war. However, I doubt Philly would hand him to us for nothing. That's what really scares me. I have this feeling that they will demand Laroche, which makes me cautious

If the Dodgers could get Abreu without giving up the world for him, that'd be great.

Since 1998, he hasn't played less than 151 games in a season and has only OBP'd under .400 one time (.393 in '01).

He has also averaged 29 stolen bases and 10 caught stealings over his career, for a respectable 74% success rate. In '04 he stole 40 and was caught only 5 times.

Plus he has a reputation as a candy-ass who doesn't get dirty, so Plaschke can still hate his guts. It's a match made in Heaven!

does anyone really think that matsui isnt going to be a yankee next year. He cant turn down a yankee offer and test free agency because he's only had 3 yrs in the majors, if he doenst like the yankees salary offer, they will go to arbitration. The yankees would have to release matsui for him to reach the FA market. Am i wrong here?

130 He's never shown much power (15 homers is the most). He does have 8 doubles this year though, which he was getting a bunch of before his injury in Vegas. And his big league .127 ISO (.123 in Vegas) is better than Izzy's .067 at least

133 - The way I understand his contract, Matsui can reject an extension from the Yankees, at which point they put him on waivers.

I would assume that the right to negotiate with him is done in waiver priority order?

Did Seattle finish with a better record than LA? I could see them being a significant competitor to his services.

Aybar's LD% this year was only 16%, yet his BABIP was .365. Assuming a lot of that is luck, how will he do if the luck catches up to him?

133 In general you are correct. However, in this instance, you are not correct. His contract states the Yankees must give him an extension, otherwise he'd force them to put him on waivers for the purpose of granting him his release. They have until Nov 15th. I doubt he refueses their offer

136 Something around .265/.335/.400. Let's hope luck doesn't catch up, and even if it did, these aren't terrible numbers (albeit not the numbers of a starting 3B)

130. Pecota's prediction for Aybar coming into this season (keep in mind .260 is league average and .265 is average for third basemen):
2005: .247 eqa
2006: .264 eqa
2007: .268 eqa
2008: .280 eqa
2009: .284 eqa

132. Im not thrilled with the idea of trading for Abreu for two reason, (a) Abreu's somewhat overrated hitting in Citizens Bank Ballpark, and Dodger stadium would really hurt him considering how much his power depends on hitting 35-45 doubles, im not sure if he would be really worth that salary. (b) the phillies would probably want something like laroche and broxton just to begin with.

138 - If Aybar is gonna start at 3rd, for him to not put up "weak" numbers for a 3B, he's gonna have to OBP .370+

140. The average major league thirdbaseman hit .268/.338/.432. I think we can reasonably expect aybar to match that.

140 Thatmay be true. We have Kent at 2B, so let's assume he's the equivalent of a 3B, would the numbers I posted be acceptable for a 2B?

139 Was the Vet as bad as Citizens Bank? I honestly don't know, but Abreu put up the same numbers there as he did in Citizens

141 - I think we can expect him to match that, too. But I would expect a little more from our starting 3rd baseman. Is it unreasonable to expect Aybar to have an OBP about 70-80 points higher than his BA?

I meant 80-90 in 144. I hope Aybar OBP's at least 350.

139 I would be hesitant to trade guys like LaRoche and Broxton myself, but if the Phillies are mainly looking to dump salary, and they seem to be less-than-thrilled with Abreu's Hustle Quotient, maybe they'd give him up for some second-tier prospects provided the Dodgers take on all the money he is due. Like I said, I wouldn't give up the world for him.

Also, he's played most of his career in Veterans Stadium (closed after 2003), and put up the same numbers in either place, so maybe Dodger Stadium wouldn't damage him as much as you think.

145 80-90 is pretty high for him. Looking at his minor league numbers:

'00: 92
'01: 74
'02: 124 (69 walks in 372 AB, but a .215 avg)
'03: 62
'04: 70
'05: 67

146 - provided the Dodgers take on all the money he is due.

That's the key. I'd assume that if we took the full $14M per, they couldn't ask for our top handful of prospects.

And they'll already be chipping plenty for Thome's remaining $43.5M(!) over the next 3 years.

146. Abreu "only" put up a .474 slug% this year, for a corner outfielder making $13-16 million thats not enough. The reason that i think dodger stadium will hurt him is because dodger stadium heavily suppresses doubles, Citizens Bank and Veterans stadium didnt. If depodesta gets him for second-tier prospects, it would be the steal of the offseason. But really, that's just unrealistic. Just because the front office is unsatisfied with him doesnt mean they will let him go for nothing, he's an allstar that won the homerun durby.

Anyone up for a little capital gain? Padres are a robust +300 for the Cards series.

Considering Carpenter has thrown 240ip and has been shelled in his last 4 starts, Peavy has a great shot to take Game 1. Also consider Eaton, Loretta, Hernandez and Greene are back at full strength. IMO the current Padres are a 92 win team.

Is there any reason Abreu struggled in the second half of the season (compared to the 1st)? Nagging injuries, fatigue?

151 Home run derby?

What's too much for Abreu? Is Tiffany and Brazoban and Dodgers taking the entire contract too much? Maybe add in Werth, or even Repko. Maybe even Bradley. Pratt's gone maybe, they might have interest in Phillips. Maybe we could throw Carrara at them rather than nontendering him. I really wish I knew just how much the Phillies don't like him and his contract. If they mention Laroche, DePo might as well hang up

152. The phils would laugh at tiffany, brazoban and werth or repko.

To celebrate the impending departure of Jim Tracy, here are some of Tracy's greatest moments as the manager of the Dodgers:
http://tinyurl.com/8x48q

149 I didn't say they'd give him up for nothing, just something other than LaRoche, Guzman, Billingsley, and Broxton. A lot of LA's second-tier prospects are better than other teams' first-tier.

Also, I'd take a dip in SLG for a guy who always gets on base above .400 and can actually steal bases without getting caught half the time.

152. Im not sure the front office is that unhappy with him, the article that sparked that setiment was sportswriter with a local paper.

152 - David Bell is their starting 3B, and I don't believe they have anyone in the minors, so you'd have to assume they'll look at LaRoche.

Maybe we could throw Milton, APerez, and a non-CBill/Broxton pitcher at them and see what they think. I don't think that gets it done though.

Sweet! More Abreu ranting...

151 - HR Derby plus he has been MUCH bulkier the last two years, and still had a month long HR drought after the break. Hmm...

152 - We have Mike Lieberthal, why would we ever want Phillips?!? Ugh, Werth or Repko < J-Mike, and maybe even Lofton at this point.

Like I said a few days ago, the Dodgers and Phillies do match up pretty well. You guys will just have to shoot a little higher than second-tier.

Navarro, Carrara, EJackson for Abreu?

Remember, Ed Wade loves trading his best players for multiple useless fill-ins. A deal that would actually make sense, like Abreu straight up for LaRoche...not gonna happen.

Oh, and 132 - that's because he is a candy-ass who doesn't get dirty.

Now watch, it will be Abreu for Weaver and like Aybar. *sigh* at least you have a GM who knows what he's doing...

156 - I'm not sure what their revenue stream looks like with the new ballpark and all, but they've got a lot of bad money tied up.

They've got multi-year contracts with Rollins, Thome, Abreu, Burrell, and Lieber.

Bell and Wolf are both making a lot of money next year too, though they are off the books next offseason.

Besides, its the offseason. What else are we gonna do besides dabble in unfounded trade speculation?

159 - Oh yeah, Lieberthal too. The Phils are like LA circa 2002.

Navarro, Carrara, EJackson for Abreu?

Are you kidding me? Done!

Oh, and 132 - that's because he is a candy-ass who doesn't get dirty.

You might miss him when he's gone.

153 - Yep.

156 - Observe:

Abreu .286/.405/.484, 24 HR, 102 RBI
Utley .291/.376/.540, 28 HR, 105 RBI
Howard .288/.356/.567, 22 HR, 63 RBI (88 games)

One of these guys is making, oh, $12 million more than the other two next year. Would you be happy with him? Plus consider he hit 19 more homers that one night on ESPN than he did in the entire regular season...

157 - As awesome as 2004 Milton Bradley and 2004 Larry Bowa in the same clubhouse would have been...we have this kid named Shane Victorino now. Thanks for him, btw

158 - Milton Bradley, Edwin Jackson, Antonio Perez.

LA takes on the whole contract.

Do we have a deal? If so, I'll fax you the paperwork.

162 You really think Victorino is that good? I didn't like DePo just letting the Phils have him, but that was his 2nd Rule V Draft. And he's a little old

Also, my 152 post was just throwing names out rather than coming up with a proposal. The first part was a base for the rest of it

161 - Heh, sorry Icaros, that's an Ed Wade deal there. You would just have to throw in APerez also, ok?

159 - Saw this in today's Phila Inquirer. I had to dig for it though cause for some reason they don't mention the Phils at all on their homepage...

"But attendance, so vital to team revenue, dropped off by almost 600,000, from 3.25 million in 2004, at the Phils' two-year-old ballpark (average ticket price: $26.60). Fans never fully embraced the team or its leadership. Wade has yet to oversee a playoff team in eight years on the job, and many fans are clamoring for a change, even though two years remain on his contract."

So Jon doesn't hunt me down: http://tinyurl.com/e2ght

Mike Lieberthal would be welcomed with open arms by the L.A. press because he's a local guy. He would be "coming home".

Of course, if the Dodgers and Angels and Padres, could gather together all the players from Southern California who would want to "come home", you would have a fairly impressive squad.

164 - I actually didn't see much of Victorino since I have been at school about as long as he was on the big club. He is only 24 though; I'd rather go with a Victorino, Lofton, Michaels rotation than Milton, although being 3000 miles away from his wife might not be all that bad for him...

160 - Our catchers this year were 33 and 38 years old. David Bell, a Ripken-esque 33 going on 60, got 557 at-bats. Was 2002 the year you brought in McGriff and Rickey?

166 - I know Bob, I love it! And he's only on the books for like $8 mil next year, so DePo could actually buy some good press, right?

Doesn't one of those SoCal players currently play for the Giants though? #25?

Oh yeah, and I remembered this morning, the Brewers have never played the Yankees in a World Series.

Barry Bonds was born in Riverside, but he went to school in the Bay Area.
But Lieberthal went to Westlake High. He wants to come home!

[168]
they've never been to the world series as a national league team; only as an AL team, where playing the yankees would be impossible.

Motivational posters for baseball teams:
http://www.red-hot-mama.com/comments.php?id=204_0_1_0_C

170 - I know, I know, but I worded the question the other day so this could have been one of the answers. Next year though...

Vishal, meet Yard Work.
Yard Work, meet Vishal

http://www.yard-work.org/?p=408 or http://tinyurl.com/9zjfh

...um, did I really have to tiny-ize that one guys? Just for the record, cause I only saved like 10 characters.

And the Brewers have played the Yankees in the playoffs anyway. It was just the 1981 Division Series.

[172] you and your fancy loopholes!

i scan yard work from time to time. "where is the love for hee seop choi?" is my favorite one of theirs though.

derrick turnbow DOES have the air of peasant-warrior :)

So we're agreed then, it's time to migrate up top to the cool people thread?

TRACY IS GONE..

Happy days are here again...

Let the speculation begin....

Think Tracy must have the Pittsburgh job pretty close to wired