An excerpt from Bob Keisser's latest piece from the DailyNews:

(Press conferences) are naturally chaotic because one side wants answers and the other wants to avoid giving them, and in this case, DePodesta failed as badly as he did the days he traded Paul Lo Duca, spurned Adrian Beltre and signed J.D. (Just Disabled) Drew to a five-year contract that included his own private wing at Centinela Valley Hospital.

Some examples of Paul's comments and media responses:

Paul: "We decided it was best for both of us. He felt he needed to move on as well."

Media: Didn't Tracy ask for an extension?

Paul: "I won't get into details on our philosophical disagreements. We just didn't see eye to eye."

Media: Don't you think people deserve to know what those differences were?"

Paul: "We just weren't on the same page. I think Jim did a terrific job. We all regret the frustrating way the year has gone. Months ago, I said if anyone is to blame, it's me, and I still feel that way."

Media: Then why is he being made the scapegoat?

Paul: "The difficulties between us existed whether we would have won 71 games or 95 games. I think we'd make the same call regardless of the record."

Media: So if the Dodgers win the NL West again in 2005 we're still having this conversation?

Paul: "The time was now to move on."

http://www2.dailynews.com/dodgers/ci_3097365

Hmmm.... somebody didn't read Jon's entry. Or at least didn't click on the links.

Anyway, I mentioned this the other day, but what the heck is the fascination with Jose Lima? This year he posted THE HIGHEST ERA IN BASEBALL HISTORY. In 130 years of baseball history, there has never been a worse pitcher than Jose Lima. And yet people are still pining for his return like he's Sandy Bleeping Koufax. What gives?

Anyway, I think the 2004 Dodgers, had they returned intact in 2005 and had the same injuries they actually did (Bradley, Werth, Odalis, Gagne), would have easily been a 100-loss team.

Didn't everyone criticize Stoneman when he essentially brought back the entire 2002 Angels for 2003, with drastically different results? That was a world championship team, and the 2004 Dodgers, lovable as they were, were nothing of the sort.

Bob Keisser is starting to worry me.

Ultimately, this shows again that the bigger enemy to Messrs. Keisser, Plaschke, and Simers is not DePodesta, but rather McCourt. All the personnel decisions seem to be framed in terms of "McCourt wants to save money."

Bigcpa got a letter published in today's Times. Nice job!

2004 DODGERS, IF THEY RETURNED INTACT IN 2005:

C David Ross .240/.279/.392
1B Shawn Green .286/.355/.457
2B Alex Cora .205/.250/.288
3B Adrian Beltre .255/.303/.413
SS Cesar Izturis .257/.302/.322 PLUS INJURY
LF Jayson Werth .234/.338/.374 PLUS INJURY
CF Steve Finley .222/.271/.374
RF Milton Bradley .290/.350/.484 PLUS INJURY

SP Penny 3.90 ERA PLUS INJURY
SP Weaver 4.22 ERA
SP O Perez 4.56 ERA PLUS INJURY
SP Lima 6.99 ERA
SP Ishii 5.14 ERA PLUS INJURY
CL Brazoban 5.33 ERA

In case you're counting, that's five of the eight regulars with OBPs under .305.

I take back what I said in #3. This is not a 100-loss team. It's a 110-loss team.

Although Keisser has been drinking the Kool-Aid served over at the L.A. Times for several months now, he was one of the only writers in town who supported the hiring of DePodesta. His article back then is no linger available online but I wrote about it in The Times, They Need A-Changin' and provided some excerpts if you are interested in seeing how he has transformed from a believer to a non-believer.

I'm sure he has either totally forgotten about his original stance or would like us to think he opposed DePo's hiring from day one.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2004/02/the_times_they_1.php

4

You mean the 77-85 Angels of 2003? A team that had Eric Owens playing in 111 game? The lowest ERA among the starting pitchers that year was 4.43.

To Stoneman's credit, he didn't repeat the mistake in 2004. And the Angels are going to have to retool a bit after this season too. But they are starting from a much stronger position.

Reading the letters in the LA Times makes me wonder about how some people view the past. And how the past is often just remembered for all of its good things.

The problem is that the past has gone. It has left. It is never coming back. You can't recapture the past. You can remember it. You can't replicate it, especially in baseball. The economics are different. Players don't stick around forever.

The 1963-66 Dodgers aren't coming back. There is no mountainous pitchers mound in use today. There will not be a new Sandy Koufax.

The 1977-81 Dodgers aren't coming back either. Teams will get new players on the infield each year.

We all want to go back to a time when we thought things were better. But trying to replicate the past exactly as it was is a foolish notion. You have to work in the present. There are new economic realities. There are new ways of obtaining players. There are different market forces.

So the "bring back the 2004 Dodgers" crowd is a little like those folks who wish the world would return to the way it was in the 1950s -- because they've forgotten about segregation and McCarthyism and all the rotten stuff that was going on then, and only remember Elvis on Ed Sullivan.

These are the good old days...

[8] wow, that's amazing. and it's exhibit A that many writers will merely write whatever they think will make their paper the most money, regardless of what they truly think.

Man, do all baseball fans have to deal with this amount of crappy sportswriting? I love how people keep thinking the outcasts would have repeated 2004 had they been on the Dodgers in 2005.

Finley is old and it's not like his 224 at-bats last year totally carried the team (although one at-bat did). I could have understood Beltre's numbers dipping a little bit, but the fact that he regressed to his pre-2004 totals is a little too coincidental. Lima is just not a very good pitcher who benefitted from Dodger Stadium and the cliched comeback year.

As for McCourt, one of these days I'd like to see a sportswriter map out a feasible roster of free agents to achieve this magical $100 million payroll. One can simply point to the hole the Fox era dug for the current era to see that simply spending a lot doesn't amount to immediate or future success.

One more thing I've been pondering: wouldn't it be beneficial to front-load a contract for someone like Giles during a weak FA year like this year? Since we're all worried about detereorating skills, it would be easier to trade him in a couple years since his contract won't be such a burden. Is there any reason either party wouldn't benefit from this?

15
I think that's an excellent idea.

2
Oops, sorry about that. I read the entry, but didn't click on the link.

15 Generally, I think people who understand money (I'm not one of them) say that it's better to pay later rather than sooner. If you frontload, you're certain to pay that big money in the first year. If you backload, you get to pay the same money, but later. Also, maybe you can make a trade and avoid paying some or all of the out years. While the big out year money may make it difficult to trade, you can just eat some of the salary when you trade -- no different than having paid it yourself during the first year, except for the benefit of paying later rather than sooner. No?

My "This Day in History" email tells me that it's the anniversary of Don Larsen's WS perfect game v. the Dodgers.

So, I guess the Yankees have that going for them.

You would have to frontload a contract by a large margin for any player to go for it.

Why would I want to make $10 million this year and $8 million four years from now? (If I were a player.)

I doubt they will be playing today in the Bronx.

From weather.com
New York, NY forecast for today
A steady rain. The rain will be heavy at times. Thunder possible. High 76F. Winds S at 15 to 25 mph. Rainfall may reach one inch.

20 Because the money is more useful to me now than in 4 years. If I know I can only get $32 million ver 4 years, wouldn't I agree to just get it all in the first year rather than having to wait til year 4?

I guess if I think the salary I can negotiate in years 5-9 are dependent on my year 4 salary, then I might hesitate.

Expanding on the point in Jon's post:

One thing that always seems to pop up in articles like Keisser's is the idea that DePodesta made major changes to the 2004 team because he has some radically different way of thinking about things compared to most GMs (usually described as him doing whatever his computer tells him to do).

Have DePo's moves really been that unusual, or is everything he does simply interpreted as radical because of his reputation? Was trading some good players in 2004 to get a quality starter for the post-season really a radical idea? Would MOST other GMs REALLY have left the 2004 team intact for 2005??

I know many of us hope or even believe that DePo is smarter than the average GM. But, is it just me, or is the radical nature of what he's done something largely projected onto his moves more than an inherent part of those moves themselves? I'm interested to know how others here view this.

Well boys, I'm off to the Kern river for my last stab at some trout this year. I'll be back Wednesday or Thursday. I'll raise a glass to all of you at McNally's Fairview steakhouse.

I usually find trout at the market. I can catch them by telling the guy behind the counter, "Give me a trout!"

Remembering Sandy:

Sandy Koufax started against the St. Louis Cardinals on September 15, 1955 in a game at Busch Stafium against the St. Louis Cardinals. Sandy ended up with a no decision in a game Brooklyn eventually lost in 12 innings, 3-2. Sandy yielded the first homeruns of his young career to Stan Musial and Rip Repulski to account for the two earned runs he allowed. In 4 innings of work, Sandy allowed 2 runs on 7 hits, with 1 strikeout and no walks.

Thanks to the New York Times, the book Koufax, written by Sandy and Ed Linn, and retrosheet.

Stan from Tacoma

23 - I wrote about this before the season:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-los-angeles-dodgers/

What this all adds up to is a Dodger general manager who made some conventional moves and some unconventional moves, some superficially good ones and some superficially bad ones. In other words, what this adds up to is a general manager, period. If Jim Bowden, recently recycled by the Les Expos Montreal of Washington, made the same moves, some commentators would applaud, some would cringe, but none would ascribe the slightest subtext.

The Dodgers had an eventful offseason - but like much their neighbors in the entertainment industry, the eventfulness of it was mostly hype. DePodesta values players in a certain way - but not an outlandish one.

Rain out in New York today.

Jon,
Your question 5 in the Hardball Times is tricky to evaluate:

"5. So, what happens in 2005?
Brad Penny will make at least 30 starts, throw at least 180 innings with an ERA below 3.50 and justify his acquisition.

Drew will have an OPS over .900 for a minimum of 130 games and justify his acquisition.

Resting often against lefties, Choi will have an OPS over .850 and justify his acquisition.

Lowe will throw 190 innings and justify his acquisition this year - though perhaps not for years to come.

Kent will hit more than 20 home runs, field effectively but look clumsy in comparison to Izturis, and the media will be unimpressed.

Non-roster invitee Scott Erickson will be a low-cost bust, but non-roster invitee Buddy Carlyle will be a low-cost success.

Beltre will be truly missed, and people won't completely come to terms with his departure.

The Dodgers will win between 80 and 100 games - no more precise prediction is possible - but whatever the result, optimism will reign for their future."

Hmmmm.....

The thing is that hardly anyone evaluates the Dodgers objectively now.

1 How can anyone who purports to be a coherent analyst trash DePo for "spurning" an opportunity to pay Beltre $13 mil per? As all DT readers know, now that Belly has reverted to his usual mediocrity, that cheap shot by Keisser and others doesn't stand up to any serious scrutiny. I almost started to read Buster Olney's ESPN column on the Dodgers this morning, but caught myself in time. Anybody remember the post-trade column last year when Olney called Juan Encarnacion (he of the .707 OPS) "a proven run-producer"? This morning I had the sense to come scurrying back to DT.

The Curse of the Plaschke:

Two days after being the subject of a Plaschke sob story piece, Scott Spiezio got arrested in Chicago for assaulting a cab driver.

http://tinyurl.com/8jfnt

30 - Is that a new Olney column on the Dodgers? I don't see anything online.

Can you provide a link?

Did anyone else notice in the Times today that Tracy said that McCourt did indeed try to call him on the day that he was let go? Tracy said he had two calls, but he hadn't returned them. Apparently McCourt (who was indeed attending the funeral of a cousin), called while Tracy was on his conference call.

Not that I expect people who wrote that McCourt was covering up for not calling Tracy by saying that he was indeed away for a death in the family (yes, you Mr. Simers), to apologize.

29 - My predictions were a mix of right and wrong, often in the same sentence.

27 - Thanks, Jon.

Do others agree? Is there any evidence that DePodesta has been implementing an unusual approach? Or are his bad and good moves simply garden variety bad and good moves?

27 - Paying a division rival $10M to take a popular player off their hands.

Trading another popular player for a big stiff and injured pitcher.

Letting a popular homegrown MVP candidate go in Free Agency.

Signing questionable player after questionable player to replace said popular players.

All this after finally bringing home the first title in a decade.

These can be construed as unusual moves to those that choose not to see WHY these moves were made.

Conventional wisdom:

Jim Bowden picks average and bad players who produce a disproportionate number of wins because they have "what it takes to win".

Paul DePodesta picks average and above average players and they produce a disproportionate number of losses because DePodesta is a heartless bean-counter, who doesn't value "the little things."

Brian Cashman throws hundreds of millions of dollars and can produce a winner because he has inexhaustible resources.

Billy Beane only wants cheap, young players who walk a lot.

Bill Stoneman has unparalleled gifts at picking guys who play "the right way."

Brian Sabean values veterans at the expense of rookies and always makes a great trade to improve his team at the break.

Oops, sorry that was in response to 35.

32 Is that a new Olney column on the Dodgers? I don't see anything online.

It's actually on Olney's blog posting for 10/8. If anyone shows me where to go to unravel the mysteries of tinyurl...I'll show you how to get to the Olney piece I recommended not reading :)

Just go to
http://www.tinyurl.com

Cut and paste the URL in to the box. Hit the submit button.

Cut and paste the tinyurl where you want it.

In good news, my new car has finally arrived! I will get to pick up my Prius Sunday. I could pick it up today, but I'm going to the UCLA football game.

39 - Just go to www.tinyurl.com, paste the big ugly url into the text box and hit submit.

Olney's piece is brief and uninformative. Thanks for the heads up though. I despise that man.

Olney does claim to be a lifelong Dodgers fan.

But he didn't grow up on the West Coast and he went to college at Vanderbilt.
So I'm not sure how that came to be.

I'm wondering, if someone is willing to educate me, whether MLB has limits on the use of incentive and performance clauses in player contracts? It seems like, if a guy like Giles (or whoever you are trying to sign) had a choice between a 4 year $40 million contract and a 1/$8 million base with incentives that would take him to $13 million if he performed the same as this year, that both the player and the GM would prefer the second contract. (I have no idea how to place values on players, so please correct my values, but, hopefully, you get the idea.)

It seems like that kind of contract is better for the player because as long as he performs he gets bigger rewards, and it gives the GM more roster flexibility.

40
41
Thanks for the tinyurl lesson. Olney's Dodger blog:
http://tinyurl.com/cdxod

But it's also an ESPN.com Insider item, which makes it a waste of money as well as time.
Look, I'm all for the Marketplace of Ideas, but it's enough to hear a bad idea once. The Plaschke-Simers-Tim Brown-Keisser-Henson-Olney echo chamber mostly keeps recycling the same ideas.

There's also a tinyurl toolbar at their site which you can install into your browser, making it even easier to use.

Wow. That Daily News piece is just about the dumbest I've seen. It's really hard to believe these people can keep their jobs. Even IF you agreed with his conclusion, and read his article looking for ammo against the DePologists, you'd hate it, because it provides no information or logic whatsoever. Not even bad logic. Why is it that popularity (in the clubhouse or among the media) equals greatness? How can ANYONE wish for Finley or Lima, even if if one can delude oneself into thinking that Beltre would have repeated his 2004 performance? We knew the Finley and Lima were flukes at the time. And I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that this guy and most of his ilk supported the OPerez re-signing at the time. I stopped reading the LAT a year ago, so my only exposure to Plaschke and Simers is here, and now I get suckered into reading their clone because I can't resist the convenience of the link that Jon posted. Ptooey! I'm going to the garden to find some snails to munch on in order to remove this bad taste form my mouth.

JD Drew - did the Braves catch lightning in a bottle in 2004 - or was the karma just plain awful in LA in 2005? Which Drew do we get in 2006? The following extract is from The Transaction Guy.

Braves Sign Drew
One year, $4.2M for OF JD Drew.
Is this the year that JD Drew delivers on his promise, and does it while playing a full season? Drew has put up three seasons with an OPS over 880, including an OPS of 1027 in 2001, but he's never played more than 135 games or had over 500 PAs in a season. Obviously, the Braves hope he will replace Gary Sheffield's offense at a fraction of the cost, and if he can play 150+ games he has a good chance to do it. Everyone in baseball seems to agree that he has the total package, and figures that eventually he'll hit 30-40 home runs. The Braves must have the same fears as everyone else,though, or they wouldn't have traded for Eli Marrero at the same time they got Drew.

If Bob Keisser starting writing in Spanish, would he necessarily be as stupid as he is now?

46 Are you referring to the Keisser column? What's really weird about that one is that Keisser has been a member of SABR for ten years and supposedly understands empirically-based analysis. This is what Rich Lederer wrote about Keisser more than a year ago:
"Unlike Bill Plaschke and Larry Stewart of The Los Angeles Times, Keisser 'gets it'..."
Ha!
The full column is at:
http://tinyurl.com/75mo4
(you have created a tinyurl monster).

DePodesta doesn't drink alcohol because it kills brain cells, and Keisser proves it.

48
I dunno, let's find out. Here's Keisser, translated by babelfish from English to Spanish and then back to English:

(press conferences) he is naturally chaotic because a side wishes answers and the other wishes to avoid to give them, and in this case, failed DePodesta as seriously as he the days ago he negotiated Paul low Duca, despised to Adrian Beltre and signed J.D. (as soon as disqualified) it drew to a contract of five years that included its own wing deprived in the hospital of the valley of Sentry.

Some examples of the commentaries of Paul and the answers of means:

Paul: "we decided that he was best for us the two. It felt that he needed to move also ignited."

Means: Tracy did not request an extension?

Paul: "I will not obtain in the details in our philosophical discords. Just we did not see the eye for eye."

Means: You do not think people deserves to know which were those differences "

Paul: "just we were not in the same page. I think that Jim made a work fabulous. All we lamented the way of the frustration that has gone the year. Months ago, I said if any person must blame, he I am I, and still I feel that way."

Means: Then porqué is he who is done I inform expiatorio?

Paul: "the difficulties between us existed if we would have gained 71 games or 95 games. I think that we would make the same call without concerning the file."

Means: So if the triumph of the trampistas the NL of the west in 2005 we still is having again this conversation?

Paul: "the time now was to move ignited."

What if the Daily News had the DH? Would he be as stupid then?

Just to clarify,
Keisser is a columnist for the Long Beach Press-Telegram. The Daily News is owned by the same company and often picks up his column.

The Daily News columnists are Dilbeck, Modesti, and Hoffarth.

Keisser fits right in with that Murderer's Row

I love that translation of Dodgers as "Trampistas," by the way.

(Really it means conmen or swindlers.)

I'm assuming that babelfish is using "Dodger" like "The Artful Dodger".

(steps up on soap box)
I was wondering if Jon and the group have had any specific discussions about the obvious sea change in news coverage -- and specifically sports writing since the internet went mainstream.
It seems the overwhelming majority of MSM are in a stage of denial - their era of reporting and interpreting the news is coming to a close. And they can't stop it. And worse, they have no idea they are fast becoming irrelevant.
Does it really matter what Plaschke, Simers, Keisser write? With the internet, individuals (fans) such as ourselves have access to more information then ever before. We don't need anyone to explain to us what happened in the game each night. We've already watched it, or followed it online. We don't need anyone to analyze it for us. We can do that ourselves, and get instant feedback from others. Maybe, the MSM is no longer mainstream? I'd say they're more like a landlocked sea thats shrinking in size with every new home PC that gets hooked to a broadband pipe.
(steps down from soap box)

36, 37 -- OK, but I already understand the common perceptions about DePodesta. You both describe the way his moves are interpreted when the assumptions about DePo are already taken for granted.

What I'm asking is: Do DePodesta's moves thus far actually suggest an unusual or even radical approach?

Perhaps it's still too soon to tell.

ESPN is the root of most evil.

57 Yes, but...the internet also makes it easier stick with sources of opinion and information that reinforce your own preconceptions. That tends to make people even more strident. I think most DT readers (or at least posters) venture outside the bubble and read contrary opinions. I'm not convinced that everyone uses the 'net that way.

57 If you want serious discussion of those issues, try Jay Rosen's blog Press Think. He's a J-school prof at NYU.

http://journalism.nyu.edu/pubzone/weblogs/pressthink/

61. Thank you.

6 Hey Marty- thanks for noticing. I counted 14 Dodger letters today. 13 negative, anti-administration and mine.

57. I like it. The Aral Sea. There's no reason that the MSM can't adapt to the online world. They'd have a tremendous head start in terms of name recognition. Look, for example at how so many "brick and mortar" businesses moved online. It took them a while to realize the need, but they got there, and are doing fine.

As for SiGeg's question about the DePo behind the myth, I think you're on to something. Valentin, Choi, and maybe Drew are certainly sabr types (given what they're good at and not so good at), but Phillips and Kent were not. JP was a desperation stopgap (someone had to catch the pitches), and Kent was good enough that it didn't matter. Dumping Green was no different than what the Sox will do when they dump Manny, or what the Braves did when they dumped a still potent Sheffield. Or what Toronto did with Delgado (and, let's face it, with Shawn Green). Or what the Phillies will try to do with Thome. Lots of teams cut bait on overpriced guys past their prime. And you're right, "THE TRADE" was dealing from strength to patch up weaknesses. Really. except for LoDuca's cuddly factor, I'll be more GMs admired that move than denigrated it. A soon-to-be-overpaid but solid catcher, a hunk-of-poo outfielder, and a good-not-great setup guy for a #1 or #2 starter, and a power-hitting 1bman with a great eye. Penny's injury at the end of last year notwithstanding, if Choi had been allowed to play, this would have been a no-brainer. Even with Penny hurt and Choi benched, it STILL worked out for the Dodgers, I think.

So yeah, where's the iconoclast?

Part of the problem, as always, is that MSM folks and most fans pay no attention at all to the minor leagues. That's one of the things I've enjoyed most about this place - learning from those of you who know a lot about the farm. Every season, those deadline deals of star for prospects are always looked at as giveaways, but often the prospects pan out, and the seller ends up justified for making the deal. Not that anyone in the MSM ever revisits these things to apologize for the premature vilification. About the only example I can think of is the Bagwell-for-Anderson deal.

One thing I've noticed lately (last 5-7 yrs or so) is that many sports columnists at major newspapers seem to view their column not as an end in and of itself, but as a stepping stone to some kind of TV gig. I think that's resulted in a huge downturn in writing quality. Column-as-talk-radio, if you will.

oops. somewhere in that mess in 64, it should say "I'll bet that more GMs..."

Right. Most columnists are writing what they wish they were shouting at the camera in three-second sound bites. That is a problem that is far beyond sports writing, infecting most columnists.

Except of course for TJ Simers, who remains self-declaredly unspoilt from the world

One need not be holding on to 2004 to be dissatisfied with the results of DePodesta's handiwork. The team he built was 20 games below .500. Excuse me if I don't give him a pass.

"One need not be holding on to 2004 to be dissatisfied with the results of DePodesta's handiwork."

You have to realize that among all of DePodesta's detractors, you are the first to have made this point.

69 Most teams do struggle when they lose three of their four best players.

Though, like Steve said, that's the best anti-DePo argument ever presented.

I guess I've made that point before, but I don't think of myself as a DePodesta detractor.

If more evidence were needed that MLB has sold out to television, and that television doesn't give a rip about baseball fans, it would be the starting time for the StL-SD game today. 11:00pm EDT? All to keep the mighty NCAA football schedule intact.

I've been disgusted with night playoff/WS games for years, but this goes even beyond that.

A columnist for Slate had a lengthy piece ripping many of today's sports columnists of doing nothing but preparing themselves for a TV shot and ignoring things like going to sporting events. The guy especially singled out Tony Kornheiser as the worst example.

Kornheiser was livid over this and ripped the Slate columnist on his radio show and on PTI. Since Slate is owned by the Washington Post, it was a dangerous stance to take.

Here is a link to the column by Stephen Rodrick
http://slate.msn.com/id/2112657/

Rodrick has not written for Slate since that column appeared.

There was a mention of Simers in the story which was interesting:

Cranky and supremely talented Los Angeles Times sports columnist T.J. Simers, a former ATH panelist, gave a look inside the sausage factory when he told the San Diego Union-Tribune in 2003 that "ESPN will hire you for your credibility, but after a minute, they've had enough of that," he said. He also disclosed that the money he got from the show would "pay for my daughter's wedding." Not surprisingly, Simers was soon relieved of his duties.

73
The Padres-Cardinals series has something of an NBA playoff series feel to it doesn't it? Especially when the NBA played a best of 5 opening round, NBC demanded two weekend games in each series so it would take at least a week to play 3 games.

75 Hadn't thought of that, but this sked causes me to agree:

*Game 4: at SD
Sun, Oct 9 - 4:05 pm EDT
TV: ESPN2

So 17 hours after Game 3 begins, Game 4 is supposed to start (if necessary).

When I was in the Navy we called those double-backs; day shift off at 1330 and back at 0930 that night for the mid shift.

This is no way to showcase baseball or its players.

Oops, 2130 that night. I'm out of practice with 24-hr clocks.

Here's a decision that may be looming for DePo...let's say he does decide to trade a top tier prospect to get a younger veteran who's not on the downside of his career. And I think DePo will have to put at least one serious prospect in the mix to get, for example, Adam Dunn. I say the guy to go is Joel Guzman. He's obviously got power, but he's also at the point where he should be showing some plate discipline and he hasn't. Franklin Gutierrez looked like this when DePo traded him for Bradley and he hasn't been much of a loss. LaRoche and Martin are both better at controlling the strike zone.

And DePo should never, ever trade Billingsley.

"Cranky and supremely talented Los Angeles Times sports columnist T.J. Simers"
---------

[spits up coffee]

78
I'd give Guzman-for-Dunn the thumbs-up.

Not Billingsley, though.

79

You're drinking coffee at 3:25 in the afternoon? You do keep odd hours, don't you?

Or you could just be an addict like me....

78 Yeah, unless Guzman is going to be Vlad-like (or, heck, even Soriano-like) in his ability to bad pitches hard, then poor discipline will kill him. He's even bigger than Vlad, so maybe...

I guess my points about the prospect part of DePo's apparent plan are that (1) anyone who tries this WILL be vilified because the prospects never look as valuable as the veterans who are departing. Doesn't matter how good the prospect is GOING to be, he ain't that good NOW, so it looks to the myopic like a bad trade; and (2) it's not about giving DePo high marks or low marks or a free pass -- it's about withholding judgment until all the facts are in. It might turn out that the prospects are all busts, and his grand plan was nothing but a pocketful of dreams. But the poin is that we don't know, and won't know for a few years. So give him until his 5 years are up, then assess. Even 2007 will be premature, because those Jax players will just be starting out. As Jon put it - it's not a 1-year plan. Problem is that sportswriters can't wait 4 years to write their columns, and they're too lazy to write about something else in the mean time.

81
The latter. I drink about 4-5 cups a day.

Although, to be 100% truthful, in this case it was only figurative coffee.

80 DePo may have to do a trade like that if he's going to keep the team competitive through the next two years. It's really difficult just to insert a cohort of talented rookies into a major league lineup and expect to win immediately (though Billy Beane sort of pulled it off this year). When the Jacksonville Suns/Superfriends arrive in 2007, they'll be the basis of a strong major league club for a long time, but you can't depend on them to win right away. I get a little worried when DP posters suggest that we just need to hang on until '07.

The Garvey-Lopes-Russell-Cey infield started in 1973 and went fulltime in 1974 and the Dodgers managed to win the pennant that year, but for the Dodgers to duplicate that, they're better be a Jim Wynn, an Andy Messersmith, and a Mike Marshall lying around.

RE: 84

Didn't John Shuerholz "pull it off" this year with the Braves?

"It's really difficult just to insert a cohort of talented rookies into a major league lineup and expect to win immediately (though Billy Beane sort of pulled it off this year). "
--------

And so did John Schuerholz, without the sort of.

19 seconds!

"for the Dodgers to duplicate that, they're better be a Jim Wynn, an Andy Messersmith, and a Mike Marshall lying around."
-----------

I think those guys are all lying around, but they're in their 50s and wouldn't help us anymore...

82It *should" be a five year plan, and the Tracy firing suggests that DePo still has the support of the McCourts. But I think the team must be competitive for the next two years or DePo won't make it to year five. Personally, I'm nerdy enough to enjoy patiently watching young players develop if I know they have upside (i.e., HSC). But I don't think most fans look at it that way.

86
87
The rookies obviously helped, but the Braves had a strong, veteran corps of John Schmoltz. Andruw Jones, Marcus Giles and a few others.
Also, the Dodgers didn't just magically add the Garvey-Russell-Cey-Lopes infield in '73 and turn into a dynasty. From 1968 to 1974, was a lot of experimentation with young players like Sizemore, Sudakis, Alan Foster and others before the right combination took hold.

Anyone else remember last decade when the Mets had that set of amazing rookies in the minors on the verge of stardom? If memory serves correct, they were all pitchers and the only one that came close to meeting expectations was Jason Isringhausen. And he's done it as a closer (not his projected role at the time).

My point is it's great to dream about what Guzman/LaRoche/Loney/etc. will do when they make it to the big leagues, but don't be distraught if the majority of them turn out to be average players.

To the point about whether keeping the 2004 Dodgers together would've resulted in more championships or steep collapse, here's a column from Boston.com, in which columnist Eric Wilbur takes a surprisingly philosophical (for Boston) look at the Red Sox' failure.

http://tinyurl.com/9urq2

It's not that winning breeds complacency; it's that winning breeds fear of public reaction to change and makes luck, in retrospect, look like sustainable quality.

The 2005 Red Sox couldn't make big changes without making people upset about losing the 2004 magic. Same with the Angels in 2003. It's almost forgivable in those instances; these teams won it all, and their fans were long-suffering. It's tempting to think: Why not give the champs a 'victory lap'?

Meanwhile, Keisser, Plaschke and their ilk are bawling their eyes out because DePodesta broke up a team that won a single playoff game.

I'm having the oddest audio problem on my FSW. I'm watching the USC-Arizona game and the video is fine. But the audio sounds like someone is running the soundtrack backwards through the truck.

It's like watching a football game with "Revolution #9" playing in background.

Anyway, carry on.

"...it's great to dream about what Guzman/LaRoche/Loney/etc. will do when they make it to the big leagues, but don't be distraught if the majority of them turn out to be average players."
An insight of Bill James and his disciples is that certain statistics can help you make pretty good guesses about how minor league hitters will perform at the big league level. At least, if you look at the right things (and the "right things" don't look as good for Guzman as for LaRoche or Martin). So in the long run, I'm more optimistic than LetsGoDodgers about the class of 2007. Just don't expect immediate success.

Pitchers are more of a crapshoot, but Billingsley looks about as good as a young pitcher can look at this point.

91
"The rookies obviously helped, but the Braves had a strong, veteran corps of John Schmoltz. Andruw Jones, Marcus Giles and a few others."

Well, then I guess it's a good thing that we have a strong, veteran corps of Eric Gagne, Jeff Kent, J.D. Drew, Brad Penny and a few others.

92
While you have a good and important point, I don't think our situation is comparable to the Mets at all. First of all, those three Mets prospects were all pitchers, who are far likelier to get derailed on the way to stardom. Position players like LaRoche, Martin, etc., are not likely to pull a Pulsipher and disappear.

Second, those Mets guys were also wildly overhyped to the point where everybody started thinking they were better than they really were. I don't think that's happened to our guys.

The Mets had a bunch of prospects that never panned out. Besides the trio of Wilson/Pulsipher/Isringhausen, there were guys like Gregg Jefferies and Kevin Elster too. Jefferies said his goal was to break Pete Rose's career hit total.

Missed it by that

much

Meanwhile, Keisser, Plaschke and their ilk are bawling their eyes out because DePodesta broke up a team that won a single playoff game.

And when half of the "break up" was THE TRADE, which happened before, and might have helped toward that one playoff win. Amazing how people see dumping LoDuca/Encarnacion and dumping Finley as somehow the same act. When Finley would not have been here at all without the first deal. Oh yeah, Roberts had to make way too.

If the Dodgers are going to be playing a bunch of overhyped rookies, then I think Torey Lovullo would be the ideal choice to manage the team.

He could make Chris Pittaro his bench coach. Eric King could become the new pitching coach.

Jefferies had a 14-year career that included nine consecutive seasons as an above-average hitter.

If that's not panning out, I'll take it.

96 Second, those Mets guys were also wildly overhyped to the point where everybody started thinking they were better than they really were. I don't think that's happened to our guys.

It's a concern, though. The spotlight on our Jacksonville team is pretty intense, both from within the Dodger organization, and without. They've been referenced frequently in the media, and are the primary focus of most fan sites. They're mentioned all the time on Dodgers.com...sheesh, the Suns were "minor league team of the year." And, because of the web, the media echo chamber is that much louder and faster than it was in the Mets' Elster/Jeffries period. Unfortunately, our guys aren't going to have the chance to sneak up on anyone the way it seems like the Braves' rookies did. They will succeed or fail under intense scrutiny. We've already gotten a taste of it with Edwin Jackson, and I'm not sure he's doing that well with it.

But the Mets made Gregg Jefferies out to be the second coming of Rogers Hornsby. Instead he turned out to be the second coming of Kevin Seitzer.

64 -- GoBears, thanks for your thoughts.

I guess no one here is going to make the case for DePo's moves actually being demonstrably driven by some kind of unusual ideology. I certainly don't see how to make that argument. (And this is an entirely different issue from whether or not his moves have been good.)

100 - Not to mention my absolute favorite baseball game of all time, the date that should make ALL Dodger fans shudder in fear:

AUGUST 25th, 1995

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B08250PHI1995.htm

104
Ahh, Jeff Juden. Baseball's most beloved pitcher.

Now there was a bad chemistry guy.

Loney is the lone Dodger playing in Phoenix today. Grounded out on the first pitch in his first AB

6 When I read through the Letters to The Times (Sports) I thought the 7th letter, the one from Brian Greene or Rolling Hills Estates had to be a DT poster. I assume that is the letter from BIGCPA?

I am watching the USC game on Fox and Ben Hur, the "ramming speed" scene on one of the movie channels, switching back and forth I realized the music is the same for both.

105 - ???

Cmon Bob, what do I not know about one of my favorite players from when I was 10?

I even got his autograph at spring training one year. That dude is TALL.

Jeff Juden is indeed tall, but he never stayed long in any one place.

I had forgotten that he had a few months with the Angels too.

85. "for the Dodgers to duplicate that, they're better be a Jim Wynn, an Andy Messersmith, and a Mike Marshall lying around."
-how about a JD Drew, a Brad Penny, and an Eric Gagne?
Im suprised by how many people think that the dodgers need to go out and get an Adam Dunn-type star hitter. A healthy 2005 dodger team wouldve won 85-95 games, right. Seems to me that if everyone comes back healthy (izturis is the only one that wont) the team should only need some minor changes. Its not as if the true talent level of this team is accurately portrayed by its record.

At least my cable system fixed the audio on the USC game. I figured it must have upset a lot of people since I couldn't even get through to anyone at my cable system.

There is a distinct pattern to the music that the USC band plays.

"Tribute to Troy" is played after any defensive stop that does not result in a first down. Unless it's a sack and then it plays "Another One Bites the Dust."

"Fight On" is played after every first down.

When my brother was on the USC beat, he charted how many times they played each song in a game and then interviewed fans of other schools about what they disliked about the USC band.

I think he never received as much negative mail on any topic he has ever written about. You would have thought he advocated killing puppies.

Loney did the exact same thing in his second AB, except he waited a pitch. 3 pitches, 2 ground outs to the 2B

"Another One Bites The Dust". . .

Perfect for the chariot scene!

Did anyone know if you don't pull for the Dodgers, there's a good chance you may not get into heaven?

111 I agree with you and Eric Enders that the talent level of Drew, Penny, Gagne, and Kent is high...if these guys are healthy. I still think that DePo was right to get Drew and Penny, but let's face it, Drew, Penny, and Gagne now all have a history of serious injuries. They may be fine next year, but they may not. I think Dunn would be a worthwhile upgrade, especially if you can get him for an overhyped prospect like Joel Guzman.

111-
It is hard to say for sure how many games we would win with that lineup. Is that team capable of doing it? Yes, but I have no idea if it is a lock. If we do not add talent well then we are going to have to trade Kent away because he will want out and trade Gagne because we should get something for him if he is just going to leave. In addition Bradley maybe forced to leave by McCourt. Also with the number of injuries we had this year I would rather try to get as much talent as possible. Plus if DePo really does not do much and we fail again who knows how McCourt will re-act to all the negative attention the team will get.

The thing that impressed me most about DePodesta in 2004 is the way he realized that the Dodgers were not a championship-level team, and that his focus was not on building a team to win his own weak division but on one to win against the true elite. The 2005 roster was an interim improvisation that would have easily won the division if it had stayed healthy. To not make allowances for injuries when assessing the season is willful blindness.

91 Who's John Schmoltz?

111 this in my mind is where baseball is both an art and science at the same time. If the Dodgers just tweak their 2005 roster they will have problems next year. As people have pointed out the Suns roster of "all stars" still maybe a year or two away. While I think JD Drew is substantially better than Jason Werth, hand and wrist injuries seem to take awhile to heal-who knows what we can expect from Drew, and if Werth does the same as last year with more at bats we are in trouble. As Jon said just before the season ended at what point will Jeff Kent's numbers decline? If the this is truly the long rebuilding process, we might come up with 5 more wins, but I could also see us ending up with the same number as 04. It will not be a dull off season and if it is we are in trouble.

The acquisition of Dunn would be nice if only to watch Plaschke's head explode.

121 A beautiful thought...but if DePo brings him in, there's got to be something wrong with his "chemistry," right?

Loney grounds out again, this time a little over to the right, to 1B. He managed 5 pitches, and got an Olney out of it!

"Who's John Schmoltz?"
Got me! Something to s(ch)mile about :)

120. I am in no way advocating that the dodgers should call up much of their AA team. Other than Kuo, and maybe young and/or broxton, i dont think we should act like the 2005 Suns will help the 2006 Dodgers. But consider this lineup:
C:Navarro
1B: Choi
2B: Kent
SS: Perez/Robles
3B: Aybar
OF: Cruz
OF: Drew
OF: Bradley
All of these players are either average or better offensive players at their positions and all these players are currently under the dodgers control.

The true talent level of the 2005 dodgers is not a 71-win team and its not going to take 100 games to win the NL West next year. Im not saying that trading for dunn or signing giles isnt a good idea, im just saying that its not as if the dodgers are a bad team in need of massive roster reconstruction. Most of the pieces of a 90 win team in 2006 is already here.

124
I think there's some schmoltz on your face. Here let me get it off for you....

While the Dodgers obviously have to improve don't the rest of the NL West teams have to do some work.

The Padres are going to need some hitters. And they have to decide if they want to bring back Hoffman. Oh, yeah, and Giles. If they don't bring him back, then they need many hitters.

Arizona is going to need some work. They need relievers. Lots of 'em, although the bullpen pitchced well the last couple of weeks. But will they bring back Vazquez? Can they afford to? And is Tony Clark going to play way over his head again?

San Francisco needs a healthy Bonds. I don't think anyone can assume that will be the case again. And they need a healthy Moises Alou and the chances of that go down each year. Do they plan on getting any younger players to replace guys like Snow, Durham, Vizquel, Alfonso, or Matheny. Will Schmidt ever be a dominant starter again?

The Rockies showed that they might have some talent for next year. But they still have to pay Todd Helton tons of money. I thought that the Colorado bullpen wasn't too bad at the end of the year. If they can find another halfway decent starter like Jeff Francis....

Jeff Morad's comments about needing more power at catcher has prompted some at AZ Snake Pit to speculate that Vazquez may be traded for LoDuca. Vazquez didn't want to be in AZ, has an out clause and wants to go to an east coast team.

I think Dunn would be a worthwhile upgrade, especially if you can get him for an overhyped prospect like Joel Guzman.

im curious, how is guzman over hyped? he put up better numbers than laroche in the southern league, and better than francoeur before he was called up.

and to add, while being a year younger than both players.

If we start discussing an Adam Dunn deal, Plaschke will probably write two columns and then see what happens before deciding which one to publish.
---------------------

DODGERS DUNN AS SERIOUS CONTENDERS
By Bill Plaschke

With his acquisition of Adam Dunn, the whiff king of the fifth-place Cincinnati Reds, Paul DePodesta and his laptop have driven the final nail into the coffin of the McCourt-era Dodgers.

DePodesta's computer told him that Dunn, the owner of baseball's single-season strikeout record with 195, was the magic elixir the Dodgers needed to get over the hump.

More like cyanide.

Even if Dunn manages 30 home runs in between all his whiffing, that's still only 30 runs on the board. Not nearly as many as he could produce by putting the bat on the ball once in a while.

You can't homer your way into the playoffs with a swing that has as many holes as Dunn's does.

Of course, real baseball men know this. DePodesta clearly doesn't.

The Reds, who have been looking to dump Dunn ever since his media war of words with classy manager Dave Miley, finally found a sucker in DePodesta.

And they got a future star in return.

Joel Guzman, traded to the Reds for Dunn, was considered the Dodgers' power-hitting shortstop of the future, an A-Rod in the making.

A-Rod.

But this homegrown future star didn't fit the mold recommended by DePodesta's spreadsheet.

So he's history.

History.

And so is the Dodgers' season.

--------------------------------------

DODGERS PUNT 2006 SEASON

By Bill Plaschke

By turning down the Cincinnati Reds' trade offer of 25-year-old slugger Adam Dunn, Paul DePodesta has offered another indication of how he plans to build the Dodgers' 2006 roster.

Cheaply.

DePodesta and McCourt pinch pennies so well, they should audition for the role of Scrooge in "A Christmas Carol."

Given the chance to acquire baseball's top young slugger -- who bashed 46 home runs in 2004 and 40 more in 2005 -- DePodesta balked.

The reason, he insists, was not Dunn's $5 million salary, but that he didn't want to part with prospect Joel Guzman.

DePodesta considers Guzman the Dodgers' shortstop of the future even though he struck out 128 times this year and had more errors than home runs.

Google Boy sold us down the river for the next Jose Offerman.

131
Eric,

I think you should create a "random Bill Plaschke column" generator like Ken's Random Diamond Notes generator.

eric did so well in pretending to be plaschke that in the back of my mind, i will now always have that second thought that he might actually be plaschke..

Nate,
I've seen Bill Plaschke. I've seen Eric Enders (although I didn't make direct eye contact). They look, almost, but not quite, entirely unlike each other.

But isn't Plaschke originally from Texas?

Loney yet again grounds to the right, except he got it past the 2B and 1B this time for a single

that was BRILLIANT, eric. plaschke should just turn his writing duties over to you, for a stipend, and devote himself entirely to being a tv windbag.

Amazing. Eric, you've duplicated Plaschke exactly. No substance, no original thinking. Just a lot of caustic melodrama. That Slate column is right. Plaschke must be trying to get on TV.

how is arizona only 7 pts behind....

If USC wouldn't keep giving up big plays, they would be ahead by more. Also USC has had to make some really long drives so that has kept the score close.

It's not like Arizona is stopping USC's offense .

Am I going to be real unpopular on this board if I pull for Arizona?

[says the Texas grad hoping for a national championship]

140
Since I went to UCLA and Cal, the answer would be: root for Arizona to your heart's content!

I'll soon be off to go see the Internal Conflict Bowl. I think my friend is caught in traffic. Fortunately, I don't have that much further to go since I live a Repko's throw from the Rose Bowl.

I need to stop picking USC because they are not making the spreads at all last couple of weeks, but I just get suckered into thinking how many points they can score.

140 Maybe, but I'll join you in unpopularity (says the UofA attendee for three years).

Bob you should root for UCLA because if we do not have a big season this year it may be awhile before we do again. UCLA needs this season badly for recruiting purposes. Schedule is really hard next couple of seasons.

USC was a 38-point favorite.

I would not be surprised if USC outscored UA 35-0 in the fourth.

They do stuff like that.

131 -- LOL

The sad thing is, I'm sure you had to put more work into being Plaschke than he puts into his own columns.

have fun at the game, bob! go bears!

now seems like as good a time as any to say "go bears." so i will. go bears!

or should i do it this way:

hey vishal! go!

131 Eric, this was brilliant. The mind reels at the potential of this concept to be a source of great entertainment for years.

148 Absolutely! Go Bears!

i should be rooting for uofa (says the current UofA attendee), but they suck way to much and i grew up in CA watching USC/UCLA football.

Loney swung at the first pitch again, but was able to put it in the air to the opposite way, right at the LF (according to Gameday anyways). Abreu in as a defensive replacement at SS. I'm curious if the Dodgers want him at SS now, although I'm hardly inspired by Izzy v.2

"im curious, how is guzman over hyped? he put up better numbers than laroche in the southern league, and better than francoeur before he was called up."
(sorry for slow the response). "Overhyped" is probably too strong a word, but I think Guzman is a bigger risk than LaRoche or Martin because he strikes out so much. And, from everything I've read, there do seem to be legitimate doubts about him playing shortstop at the big league level. That means he'll really have to hit to be a corner infielder or outfielder. Scouts rave about the guy because he's an impressive physical speciman and he hits the ball hard. But Billy Ashley was like that too, strikeouts and all, and big league pitchers carved him up.
BTW, I agree with you that Travis Denker not making the BA top 20 for the S.A.L. was a shocker.

Guzman's done.

Sorry. Just kidding. I wanted to be the first to make one of those confident, sweeping predictions that make baseball bloggers and posters such an endearing community.

These kids, and kids they are, are so far from being truly tested against major league talent that I don't know what all this handicapping could possibly be based on. The numbers are at best a starting point. Guaranteed, we will be surprised both ways by this bunch.

but I think Guzman is a bigger risk than LaRoche or Martin because he strikes out so much.

although hes the bigger risk, his upside is greater as well. with bigger risks, come bigger rewards. Although he did strike out too much, you have to remember, he was only 20 yrs old playing in a very advanced league.

Strikeouts aside, guzman did outperform a lot of hitting prospects in the southern league this year.

"The numbers are at best a starting point. Guaranteed, we will be surprised both ways by this bunch."

There will be suprises for sure, but there's also enough of a track record that you can make some reasonable predictions about guys at Double A. And if you're Paul DePodesta, you're going to have to make those predictions if you swap prospects for veterans. He made such a preciction about Franklin Gutierrez and he was right.

It's over in the desert

Loney: 1-6 (not his best game, in 6 ABs, he saw 18 pitches. If he's going to be so impatient, I'd rather he do something other than putting the ball on the ground)
Abreu: 0-1, 3 pitch K, defensive replacement at SS

nate, you're going to dear old Redbrick U? I attended so long ago there was an unwritten rule that the campus would never expand north of Speedway Blvd. When I went back to Tucson in 1992 I learned that rule had long since been broken.

yea im there currently. its not bad. i just wish it would stop exceed 100 degrees every day. isnt it suppose to cool down by now?

by it, i mean the temperature.

Hmm. October? It used to, but maybe global warming is real. ;)

Have you been there for a spring semester yet? When I was there the coeds' clothing shrank and the mall's fertilizer content grew at that time of year.

155 I just think that guys who still haven't learned the strike zone in their second year in Double A--even at age 20--are a much steeper risk than guys who have. I am NOT saying Guzman is worthless; my point is that he might be the top tier prospect to trade for a valuable player like Adam Dunn. I'm guessing that because of Guzman's tools, scouts are still in love with him and he may have his highest trade value now.
But...this is the kind of question that's a real challenge for DePo's player evaluation skills. Fun to talk about...tougher if it's your job.

"his upside is greater as well. with bigger risks, come bigger rewards."

yes, ive witnessed the shrinking of clothes of the coeds during spring time.

guzmans bb per AB has increased from last year to this year.

2004 VB- .06% of ABs
2004 JV- .07% of ABs
2005 JV- .95% of ABs

this steady upward rise in bbs can be seen as a maturation of the strikezone. theres no reason to believe that a 20 yr old with guzmans toolset cant improve more as he gains more baseball experience.

cal up by 2 touchdowns ALREADY. it's like a blitzkrieg

This could be a long day for UCLA ughhh

and the Bears are a second-half team.

162 I'd prefer to see the Dodgers sign Giles, Garciaparra or some other combo of OF/3B FA's for a couple of seasons - and let Guzman and the rest of the prospects develop.
Fight on!

A few days ago a poster said that use of the name "Jacques Jones" should be banned at Dodger Thoughts. Not really, the name that should be banned is "Adam Dunn." The absurd man-love for a highly-flawed player around here is ridiculous, and what is even more ridiculous is that nobody seems to understand that he is unobtainable for anything remotely approximating a reasonable price in trade. Dunn would be a Dodger now if Joel Guzman was enough for the Reds. The L.A Times, before the trade deadline, made it clear that DePo was willing to trade any ONE of our best prospects for Dunn. But the Reds basically demanded Guzman, Billingsley, LaRoche, and DePo's first born.

And why is Dunn tremendously over-valued here? Because he is a two-tool player who can't play defense even minimally well, hits for a very low average, has terrible home-road splits, can't hit left-handers, and strikes out a ton. He's Jeromy Burnitz with walks. And his minor league record before age 21 was not even as impressive as Guzman's.

Has Dunn been a liability to the Reds? Of course not. What people around here who seem to fear our own prospects might not be winning any MVP's or Cy Young's are not realizing is that when you develop players in your farm system and bring them up they can have significant flaws and still be immensely valuable, because they are being paid dirt. Any team that acquired Dunn now would not be getting the same cheap player the Reds have enjoyed. And is there reason to fear that Dunn has already peaked and will decline faster than a player his age should? Absolutely, and it is surprising that saber people around here don't know this. It is the studies of sabermetricians, after all, that have proven that young players with "old player skills" decline at a faster rate compared to other players. Bottom line, if you can develop an Adam Dunn in your own farm system, excellent, but never trade for one as a costly long-term investment once his cheap years are used up. I would hate to see us even sign him as a free agent, never mind trading the farm for him. Miguel Cabrera, on the other hand, is exactly the kind of player I would kill to get as a long-term investment when he is in his mid-20's.

According to Steve Lyons, Jorge Sosa is a young kid.

Just like Edwards

This would be far more enjoyable with a certain other Dodger announcer, I think we all know who I'm talking about (no, not Steiner)

And, I, like many of you I'm sure, correctly predicted that Sosa would have a career year. The Braves could get something very nice for him, and I wouldn't be surprised if he became DRays Sosa, similar to Jaret Wright

169 Looking at the Reds - Why not Austin Kearns? He has a better batting eye than Werth, plays defense well enough to be a CF, is young (will be 26 in '06). A low-risk, low-cost add-on who could develop into a big payoff.

Monkey off or slightly ajar from our backs: Stanford 24, Washington State 21

Best anti-Dunn argument I've seen, but just so we're clear, we can still ban Jacque Jones, right?

169-
Nice write up canuck. While I do think Dunn's value will be lower in the off-season he is the type of player that will decline quickly. He would definitely be a short term option and that is not worth trading our young prospects for. I was in favor of trading for Dunn, but I really was thinking more short term production. I knew he was very flawed but I thought we might be able to get him at a good price because Cincy would want to get rid of his contract, but since it does not appear that way I think it would be smart to stay away from him. So you swayed me.

169 I like Dunn. I liked trying to get him at the trading deadline. That said, I am very cautious about trading for him now. He's going to get a lot of money in arbitration, he's going to cost of a lot of prospects (especially with the competition), and his splits do scare me a little. Yet, I'd still love to have him.

I'll also admit I'd prefer Abreu, simply because he's not going to cost as many prospects, and there's a possibility the Phillies would want Bradley, unlike the Reds

I've heard the term numerous times, but I have to show my youth, and lack of knowledge

What's the difference between old player and young player skills?

Basically old player skills are power but no athletic ability, not that great at defense, and slow. Young people are fast, athletic, etc.

171 He also has the ability to play 3rd. I like Aybar, but I'd prefer Kearns as the stopgap because he can hit for some power. That said, I have no idea if he can still play there

And he could be almost as expensive as Dunn

Think Repko, but with actual skills.

169 Canuck, thank you! Great post. I've had a bad feeling about Dunn since the topic first came up. Jeromy Burnitz with walks--yes. We'd really be better off just hanging in there with Cruz, Jr. than throwing out prospects and money to get Dunn.

My favorite short-term answer that's out there is Hidecki Matsui. That guy impresses me. I'd overpay for him if the years weren't too long.

I'm not familiar with the term "old player skills." Is that sort of like Al Gore (of whom it used to be said that he was an old man in a young man's body)?

163
Nate tends to get more excited about a Dodger prospect's shrinking WHIP or DIPS ERA than the coeds' shrinking clothing.

Asked and answered.

Someone on Sickel's site posted Bill James view on old player skills:
Bill James' writings on the subject:

Many players, perhaps most players, are driven out of the major leagues indirectly because they lose their speed. If you can create seven runs a game it doesn't matter how fast you are; you can play first base or DH. But as a player loses speed as he ages, he loses the ability to play the positions (center field, shortstop, second base) at which offensive ability is scarce, and thus loses the ability to stay in the majors without creating seven runs a game. That's another reason that catchers who don't hit play longer than players at any other position who don't hit -- nobody cares when they lose their speed. So there is no doubt that speed is the key to the advantage of the players who have young player's skills. ('87 Abstract, p. 67)
Similarly, discussing Steve Sax in the '92 Baseball Book (p. 145):

Players who have speed as a central skill age exceptionally well, not poorly... Think about speed on a ten-point scale, five average. Each position requires a certain degree of speed; you can't play center field unless your speed is at least a "6", let us say. You can play first base if you run "2", third base if you run "4", but a second baseman needs to run at least average, at least "5".
Now, if a guy runs a "7" to begin with, like Sax, then the loss in speed isn't fatal; at the age of 35 he'll still run a "5". But if a second baseman doesn't have speed as a central skill, what happens? Let's say he runs a "5" to begin with; by age 32 he'll run a "4", and then he's too slow to play the position, like Marty Barrett or Johnny Ray. Dave Cash. The only way he can stay in the game is to move to a position which doesn't require as much mobility, like first base or DH.

Wow that was a great end of the run hit by Drew. 14-14.

I'd rather not give up Guzman for Dunn. I want to see Guzman in Dodger blue, but that may just be because Guzman fits my profile of a "Dodger" better than Dunn, plus he's easier to like (more than 2 tools). I'm probably sentimentalizing my wish for a great home grown Dodger through guys like Guzman.

I'd rather just sign Giles. Giles would not cost us one of our top prospects. I think Guzman will be moved to the outfield anyway (LaRoche should be 3B, and we have Choi or Loney for 1B).

BTW, Guzman's power went down in Jacksonville, but his plate discipline did improve. In 2004, between Vero Beach and Jax, he had 34 walks compared to 511 at-bats. In 2005, he had 42 walks compared to 442 at-bats.

178. - I don't believe Kearns would be any where near as expensive as Dunn. He really hasn't had a breakout season, and has been slowed by injuries. At one time, many experts, both old-school & statheads, thought he was a better prospect than Dunn. This season, he got sent to the minors mid-season as punishment for getting fat - in mind and body. Here's his 2005 MLB stats in 112 GA's.
AB-387 R-62 H-93 2B-26 3B-1 HR-18 RBI-67 BB-48 K-107 OBP-.333 SLG-.452 BA-.240
Look familiar?

181 Grins. Well, maybe the clothing doesn't shrink like it did when I attended the school (what with all these new fabrics and all). I notice he didn't even remark on the fertilizer; maybe they don't do that any more. Used to be March and April they'd spread that stuff along the entire mile-long length of the mall, which made for a stinky experience.

Roy Oswalt gives up a hit to the Braves' pitcher?

A theme of the playoffs so far: Star pitchers failing to deliver. Randy Johnson, Tim Hudson, Roger Clemens, Bartolo Colon, David Wells, Jake Peavey...

What a fun blog to read on a Saturday afternoon! First, a strawman topic to stir things up. Who said the Dodgers should've stood utterly immobile last year? The hostilities have always surrounded management's motives versus their words. McCourt and Depodesta can be congratulated for successfully cutting way back on payroll (the primary objective this past year), and offering a semi-coherent strategem at the same time. I just wish they would've admitted their priorities. Second, the hilarious "Plaschke" articles. Unfortunately for Bill's detractors, such recognizable imitation really is flattery to someone who must stand out from his colleagues to make a living.

Canuck I'm not a huge Dunn fan, but I think you are selling him short. Dunn is a very good athlete, and actually runs well for a big man. Dunn's numbers were very impressive in the minors. He was 1 year older than Guzman at each level, but Guzman is extremely young for someone in AA. Dunn's numbers:
Age (20) Single A, .281/.422/.469 .891 16 HR 100 BB 24 SB (420 AB)
Guzman Age (20), AA, .287/.353/.475 828 16 HR 42 BB 7 SB (442 AB)
Both are very impressive, but the edge probably goes to Guzman for being a year younger and being one level ahead of Dunn. I see Guzman as a 40+ HR in the majors. While I like Dunn, I definitely would not trade Guzman for him straight up. Dunn is only under control for 1 more year and is set to make $9+ million in arbitration.

Plaschke does not really stand out though on his own newspaper. LA sports media seems to really love hating their home teams. I would probably say that most sports writers seem to try to make names for themselves by just trying to rip to shreds everyhting and try to act like they have a clue to what they are talking about when they really do not. Surprising how little you have to understand sports to be a sports writer.

Good points on Dunn both ways, though I agree with Miltie that the previous view (Burnitz with walks) was selling him a bit short. Burnitz with 80 more walks a year, coming to an OPS over .900, is quite impressive. His HRs were actually split very well vs lefties and righties. In about half as many at bats, Dunn hit about 2 or 3 fewer HRs against lefties than he hit against righties.

I would only trade for him if he did come a bit cheap due to the Reds knowing they only have him for one more year and they're not a playoff team in 2006. Something like a Loney, Werth, Jackson, and cash or a B pitching prospect should at least get their attention without really costing us any future starters.

Does Cal have any prospects? Or have Kyle Boller and JJ Arrington's lackluster NFL performances truly made Cal's players seem like "system" players.

Marshawn Lynch and there are other rb (can not remember his name right this second) are both real young and will probably be highly regarded prospects. Jackson their freshman WR will also be highly regarded.

Dunn could well turn into a cow. Wow, in this Arizona Fall League Home runs are flying cheap for guys like Steve Drew. I'm kind of glad they are not throwing any young dodger pitchers into this.

195 Greg Miller...

In his one inning, he gave up a run, but that's not as bad as the other Dodgers pitcher who has actually pitched

194. Desean Jackson. Played at LB Poly HS. He's starting as a true freshman. Chose Cal over USC. Will play baseball at Cal too.

I thought drawing walks was one of those talents that didn't decline with age.

198-
Yeah but if he can not even play a position on the field he is useless in the NL.

Who said the Dodgers should've stood utterly immobile last year?

Again, the answer to that is virtually every major media columnist and radio host in Los Angeles. I welcome this rise of neo-anti-DePodestaism, but wish it would be more honest about its allies.

Can Dunn be much worse than Werth? To say his offense wouldn't make up for his lack of range in left field at Dodger Stadium seems like a reach, especially if you have Bradley or another above-average defensive CFer out there.

UCLA takes the lead on a punt return by Maurice Drew.

169-

I agree with this to some extent. I still would like Dunn, but think that Guzman is being undersold a little bit here, for whatever reason.

Also, as to Cincinatti wanting like three of our top prospects, they might be overplaying their hand, no? Frankly, if we traded even Guzman, BY HIMSELF, for dunn I think it would be a bad trade.

I'd accept an Antonio Perez, James Loney, Willy Aybar, or Edwin Jackson combination for him, but not much more.

A recommendation: read Tim Brown's cogent, dispassionate analysis of the Dodger season in Sunday's Times. He starts with the Tracy firing, but goes deeper. His main points:

1) Tracy's firing was inevitable, because if the Dodgers have another season like this one DePodesta is a goner and if he's got a make or break season ahead of him, he needs his own man in the dugout.
2) Most people in baseball, including some on the Dodger staff, think DePodesta is in over his head. Brown reports this without endorsing it.
3) Gagne's comments are largely reflective of the team and suggest most of the players have doubts about DePodesta and McCourt.
4)The questions about DePosdesta are less about this methods (i.e. "Moneyball") than his judgment.
5) No one outside the Dodger inner circle really knows how much DePodesta's plan is dictated by McCourt's wallet.

To me, point 4 is the most interesting, because it reflects my feeling. As a lifelong Dodger fan, I don't care if DePodesta uses a computer, a slide rule or smoke signals to make his player evaluations. I'm interested in results. And the results this year were dismal.

And citing injuries is an excuse, not a reason. Good general managers plan for injuries. The Angels, Cardinals and Braves all had significant injuries and they won their divisions.

I'm no Depodesta hater. I want him to succeed. But he's got to prove himself by putting a winning team on the field.

The Angels, Cardinals and Braves all had significant injuries and they won their divisions.

depo did plan for the "normal" amount of injuries. That is why ledee was signed to be a capable 4th outfielder. Saenz was retained for last yr to be a valuable 1b/3b backup and PH.

i guess the thing depo did wrong was that he didnt plan for 3-4x the amount of normal injuries. I mean, you can only provide so much depth on one 25 man roster.

204 You mean like he did in 2004?

Gagne's comments really, really annoyed me. You'd think that a player who pitched 13 innings would recognize that injuries massively hurt the team, but, he simply doesn't.

The Dodgers had reasonable contigency plans out there, but could DePodesta plan for having one outfielder for most of the year, along with having his contigency outfielder injured?

We had a contigency plan at third base, but he never played, because for some reason, Mike Edwards recieved more play time than anyone else.

DePodesta had one year to adjust the team coming into this season, could he really not only get good backups for the players that were out there, but good backups for the backups as well?

#3 really irritates me because most of these players were brought here by DePodesta so if you do not like how he handles the team or how McCourt handles the team then do not come and play for us. Most of these guys were not even given chances with other teams (Werth I am looking at you)so I have no idea why they blast the guy that gave them that chance. Also maybe they should perform on the field since most of them had down years or barely played at all (Gagne).

Fun Pac-10 game between UCLA and Cal. What happened to the Bruin's D? I guess that's why Cal is ranked #9. The Tedford signing has to be one of college football's best moves in the last 10 years. What a quick and complete turnaround for that program.

Agree about how annoyed I am with Gagne and really almost all of the near-sighted Depo bashing. A normal (injury-wise) season gets us 100 games of JD Drew, 130 games of Milton Bradley, more and better perfomances by Werth, more at bats for Ledee, and the Dodgers easily win the division. Then no one is talking about anything but Depo's solid record of trades and free agent pickups along with the Dodgers bright future.

205: The only backcups with significant major league experience were Ledee and Saenz, and Saenz figured to get a lot of starts against left-handers. Everyone else was from Japan, Mexico or Triple A, and the Triple A team wasn't very good.
Even DePodesta doesn't use the injuries as an excuse. To his credit, he admits he made mistakes and needs to do better.
Maybe without all those injuries the Dodgers might have managed to "win" the worst division in baseball, but the goal should be to get to the World Series and this team never had a shot at that. That is Gagne's point.

Players to Management: Give us more money

Not exactly what you lead the 11:00 news with.

Cardinals had injuries, but still had Edmonds AND Pujols, plus a good, healthy pitching staff. The Dodgers had Kent, but no all other good hitters were gone. And the rotation wasn't healthy. The Cards were throwing Einar Diaz, Hector Luna, and So Taguchi out there, which is just as bad as Edwards, Phillips, and Grabowski

Braves had injuries to such players as Brian Jordan, who shouldn't have been playing anyways. They also have an excellent farm system that has several major league ready players. And when Hampton went down, Mazzone is Mazzone, and guys like Jorge Sosa become Cy Young

Angels had their pitching sans Escobar all year, and did their best to win when Vlad was healthy. Their backups of the likes of Quinlin weren't particularly better than the Dodgers

DePo did a fine job of having worthy backups for normal injuries. The Dodgers didn't have normal injuries. We ended the year without 3 starters, and 2 proposed starters had lingering injuries. Our best 2 backups were injured. Our pitching was far from healthy. Our manager refused to use the best players. The other teams did not have all these problems at the same time

Why should the team's goal have been to get to the World Series this last season? How, if you were the GM, could you have made that a realistic goal without getting rid of most of your future?

The playoffs is the goal unless you've aquired incredible talent like the Cardinals or Yankees (or Dodgers of 2007). Otherwise, most teams have enough talent to get to the playoffs, then, as Bob has stated, it's a crapshoot from there.

Worst LA Dodger seasons. Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com.
Year League Record Pct. Finish Manager High OPS Low ERA
2005 NL West 71-91 (.438) 4 Jim Tracy Kent Lowe
1999 NL West 77-85 (.475) 3 Davey Johnson Sheffield Brown
1992 NL West 63-99 (.389) 6 Tommy Lasorda Butler Candiotti
1989 NL West 77-83 (.481) 4 Tommy Lasorda Murray Hershiser
1987 NL West 73-89 (.451) 4 Tommy Lasorda Guerrero Hershiser
1986 NL West 73-89 (.451) 5 Tommy Lasorda Sax Valenzuela
1984 NL West 79-83 (.488) 4 Tommy Lasorda Guerrero Pena
1979 NL West 79-83 (.488) 3 Tommy Lasorda Cey Hooton
1968 National Lg 76-86 (.469) 8 Walter Alston Haller Drysdale
1967 National Lg 73-89 (.451) 8 Walter Alston Lefebvre Singer
1964 National Lg 80-82 (.494) 7 Walter Alston Fairly Koufax
1958 National Lg 71-83 (.461) 7 Walter Alston Neal Podres

210:
Sure players want more money (don't we all), but the discontent, if it's there, has to do with doubts about a commitment to win in the near term. If next year's outfield is Drew, Werth and Cruz (I think McCourt wants Bradley gone) and the starting rotation is Penny, Lowe, Perez, Houlton and Jackson, that says the plan is to wait for the Jacksonville kids to mature (in what, 2009?) and hope for the best. Guys like Kent and Gagne will want out if that's the case.

I don't, and I don't see why you would, want to model the 1997 Marlins instead of the 1990s to present Atlanta Braves.

209 That's the same bench and backups as most teams. Not everyone carries an allstar team on the bench...

dlt2, if waiting for the kids was the goal, Depo would have kept Cora and Lima and not signed Kent and Lowe right? Really, he had every right to do that knowing the fans wouldn't mind having those 2004 core players return.

though with Perez, Choi, and Ledee, we came close Hobos =)

how does a special teams not see that coming?

Thankfully Karl did that I already could see the amount of backlash he was going to get if he punted the ball.

Alex7,
Valid point, but I think Gagne and Kent will make their decisions based on what happens this off season.
The debate about this year, at least as Brown reports it, is whether the investments in Drew, Lowe (not Kent) and the reliance on Bradley not to blow his top and Werth to raise his game reflected sound judgment by DePodesta. The results suggest not. One can argue that it wasn't DePodesta's fault, that he was done in by injuries or bad luck or dumb decisions by Tracy. That's why he's back next year. But the pressure is on him to get it right in 2006.

221

Just to be fair, Bradley's biggest problem this year wasn't his attitude. He may have had problems in the clubhouse with Kent and at home, but his injuries were more detrimental to the team than his behavior.

wowowow. great game so far! i didnt think ucla had it in them to be this tough and resilent.

This game is so ridonkulously good.

Believe it or not, a baseball game just started. Pujols doubled in a run

The football game is far more exciting...

sigh. :(

if maurice drew was taller, he would be a top 3 RB prospect in this years draft.

theres another baseball game tonight? wierd...

Yeah he would be he is really powerful for his size so I think he can be a good steal for a team. That was such a great game with a great outcome, I love it.

that is true. even though drew is small, trying to tackle him seems like trying to tackle a 220lb back because he is so darn strong. he would be a good 3rd/4th round pick for any team looking for a change of pace back. And if he would ever get a shot as a full time back, he could be a warrick dunn type.

How backwards is it though for Arizona State to go toe-to-toe with USC last week, come up short, and fall in the rankings? Meanwhile, some East Main Tech school who beat Memphis to run their record to 4-0 probably moves up.

Overall though, I'm glad to see Cal, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Arizona State all ranked.

Eckstein just hit a homer

At least the Dodgers can say they did better than the Pads, and they had to face Rolen

Warrick had ankle-breaking agility in college though. Drew is probably more like the Kansas State runner last year who went to the Chargers in like the 5th round.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Cards and 'Stros go at it again. What happened to Berkman this season? Injuries? He was a top-5 NL power OF hitter the last few seasons but I haven't heard much this year. Free agent soon?

233 He injured his ACl in the offseason and wasn't ready until May. He did fine after a slow start, he and Ensberg are the Astros' best hitters

He was a FA this off season. Then the Astros decided to sign him long term to an expensive contract

hmm. yea i can buy the drew to sproles comparison.

sigh.

matt morris wouldnt be a bad FA pickup. It seems he is healthy now after shoulder surgery last offseason.

and, he has an awesome beard.

I have to completely disagree about Sproles and Drew. Drew is much more of a power runner than Sproles is. Drew has moves like Sproles but is much much stronger and powerful than Sproles. Sproles never carried people, Drew does. I can not really think of a back like Drew who had his combo of power with speed and finesse at a small size.

If the Cards let Morris leave, I wouldn't mind picking him up either

I mean, who could argue with the beard?

I mean, who could argue with the beard?

i hope the new manager has a policy of "beards only" as one of the clubhouse rules.

I've wanted Choi to grow a beard for some time (although that was to get more playing time with Tracy). In fact, I'm surprised Tracy didn't have a beards only policy

If I was a San Diego trolley guy, I'd be offended right now (Morris' father belittled them just now)

By "beards only," do you mean the Abe Lincoln?

Based on Morgan's comment, do you think the Yankees really enjoy playing in the playoffs? I can the '04 Dodgers or the Padres this year enjoying the ride, but for the teams expected to win, I can't see it being "fun".

Giles had some quotes on the off season today:

"Yeah, it's out there," Giles said. "Who knows what's going to happen? All I'm thinking about is playing this out.

"When you haven't been a free agent, it's intriguing, a new experience. It's not something I've been through before. I've always had a contract."

It's better than "I'm staying here" I suppose

by beards, i mean, thick awesome lumberjack beards.

i have tried many times. but always, unsuccessful. i guess my 20 yr old facial hair has not become thick enough yet.

This game might feature the two biggest whiners when it comes to complaining about called strike 3s.

Klekso for the Pads and Edmonds for the Cards. Agree or Disagree?

Nate, Hobos, it is definitely part of the college experience to start a semester clean-shaven and see if anybody notices your full beard by finals week. Get on it! :)

Anyone: is there some sort of protocol I can use to represent talking with no voice?? 109,839 of us just saw the #6 team in the country take a major beating, Red Sux-style.

WE ARE....

PENN STATE!!!!!

Ohio State makes Penn State's offense look modern. Congrats on the win! Up and coming team for the next few seasons. Michigan should be fun next week.

249 I did that last year sorta, but with my actual hair. Cut it at the beginning, and let it grow for a year, quite a mess

Also, I don't have what it takes to grow a beard. Being young (and not yet in college), I have plenty of time. Let's just say I've never shaved, to the surprise of numerous people...(I don't feel like shaving my skin)

This baseball game should've been called after the Eckstein homer.

How funny would it have been if the entire Padre team just walked off the field and into the clubhouse as he was rounding the bases?

Speaking of Miracle on Ice, Sidney Crosby is just that good. Holy cow. He may be the second coming of Gretzky.

I think it took me 105 minutes to get home from the Rose Bowl.

And I live about 4 miles from it.

did you enjoy yourself at the game bob?

254 - The traffic was awful at the coliseum... but I saw a good one! I just love watching the Big Daddy (the new name for Lendale White) rumble.

Driving to game: Bad
Being at game: One of the best I've been to
Leaving game: Ninth Circle of Hell

Four miles from home? Should've ridden your rollerblades to the game, Bob.

258 - LOL!

Wow Bob you should have just walked to the game and back hahaha.

Is everybody here either a Stanford fan or a UCLA fan? Maybe I can be the only SC fan. That would be fun.

254 - Does the Rose Bowl still have benches instead of real SEATS? That was my only complaint when I have been there.

262-
Yes, I know u can buy seat attachments and bring those.

The Rose Bowl put in seats for about 2/3 of the stadium in anticipation of the 1998 World Cup.

They are very (x20) uncomfortable.

As for the traffic, it was a "perfect storm". Bigger crowd than anticipated. There was 84,000 instead of 80,000 if they tweaked the numbers. Then the game went down to the wire so fans of both teams stayed until the end.

I have walked home from the Rose Bowl before.

I believe there are other USC fans here.

264 - when the dodgers start doing well and if the clippers can pick it up my alignment will be complete:
USC in College Football (long family lines)
Dodgers in Baseball (6th generation LA person)
Clippers in NBA (dont ask but I am not a Lakers fan)
Eagles in NFL (I started to like them when Donovan was first Drafted in '99)

This would be awesome.

Padres starting a comeback like they have in the last few games

I'm thinking this game will see the same result

Brown's Sunday column, while a bit more judiciously phrased, seems almost as far off the mark as anything by Plaschke.

In trying to account for 2005's failures, Brown posits the following choice: DePodesta stinks; or DePodesta stinks because of McCourt.

He discounts the most logical explanation, the injuries to almost every quality veteran player save Kent, Lowe and Weaver, and he doesn't even mention the reason the injuries impacted the Dodgers especially hard, which was the complete collapse of the Dodgers' scouting and drafting in the Fox/Malone era--which led the Dodgers' triple-A team to have nothing more than career minor leaguers to offer as replacements. There were no Jeff Francouers playing in Las Vegas. The cupboard wasn't just bare, it was Pam Anderson Lee bare.

The only call-up (before September) worth anything was Navarro. DePodesta traded for him, and now we see why it was so important that he complete that trade with Arizona. Brown gives DePo credit for Houlton, but fails to point out that, if not for his luck with Houlton, the holes in the starting rotation could not have been filled from within. A trade would have been necessary to get someone mediocre. The other callups like Broxton and Kuo were from the AA team, which is where you start to see Evans' handiwork.

I don't care if you're DePodesta, Dan Evans, Brian Cashman or Branch Rickey, the combination of the injuries plus the sag in the flow of prospects would've crushed any GM. Another GM would have patched and filled differently, but couldn't have made much more of it than DePo did.

The comparison with Brian Cashman is ridiculous. Cashman has made numerous mistakes. What he's got is an unlimited budget that he can use to bury his mistakes. The Yankees' farm system is in terrible shape, but when a hole opens up, so does the pocketbook. The Brown for Weaver/Navarro trade was one of the worst trades I've ever seen. The Giambi contract--if DePo was supposed to predict that Bradley and Drew would get hurt, shouldn't Cashman have figured out that Giambi was juiced and might get busted one day? Pavano? Jaret Wright? DePodesta would have been flayed for moves like that, but Brown doesn't even mention them.

Finally, I hate the "DePodesta is in over his head" meme. I'm pretty old, but a lot of young folks post on this board. This should outrage you. He's being slammed because of his youth, and because of his association with Beane. Brown's sources for the implications that DePo is swamped are old-line baseball farts or Tracy loyalists. Believe me, if some grizzled old GM like Bowden or Hart was saying nice things about DePo, I'd be worried that a sucker punch was coming. These comments were not meant in a spirit of aid and comfort to the Dodgers. Tim Brown's the one in over his head.

I just read the column. It didn't strike me as being all that bad. Brown has his perspective. He wasn't being disingenuous.

2 men on for Giles, tying run at the plate. Will the Padres end it as they have the other games?

Giles strikes out looking with the game on the line, all up to Klesko...

Comebacker

Good bye Padres, and any credibility the NL West might have had

The NL West would have more credibility if Paul DePodesta had resigned Jose Lima after 2004.

Lima knows how to pitch in the postseason.

College (UCLA- mom went them, have been watching them since I was very young)
MLB (Dodgers)
NBA (Clippers)
NHL (Kings)

Giles, that stupid moneyball player! You have to swing the bat there- be aggressive!

Look at all those dejected Padres fans-- Hanging thier heads in disappontment as though they actually thought they had a chance to beat the Cards. San Diego people, did you forget what division you play in? The 2005 NL west, the worst division in the history of baseball. Did you forget it took the last game of the season to get over .500. Did you forget that if you played in the cenral div. you would have finished in fourth place, 18 games behind the Cards? Did you forget you had no business being there in the first place? Don't start acting like you belonged in the playoffs, cause you didn't. No one from the NL West did. Have a nice summer. we'll see you in Feb.

Maybe Tim Brown hasn't gotten over how DePo ignored his printed advice, and didn't trade for Mike Lowell in midseason.

Ignoring the obvious bias that the LA Times sportspage holds against the Dodger owner and GM, the fact remains that 2005 turned into a trainwreck, and DePo will have no sympathy from many fans should 2006 end the same way.

On the positive side however, the LA radio waves became less polluted yesterday when veteran Dodger basher Joe McDonnell was fired from yet another sportstalk radio job.

Not to go back a few posts but I just got back from the Rose Bowl and that was the best game I've ever seen, in any sport. Just wanted to go on record with that.

The traffic was indeed awful.....

Not to go back a few posts but I just got back from the Rose Bowl and that was the best game I've ever seen, live, in any sport. Just wanted to go on record with that.

The traffic was indeed awful.....

I believe that was the largest crowd ever for a UCLA-Cal football game. UCLA lists their biggest crowds since 1944 in their media guide. The smallest one listed is a little over 85,000 and none of the games listed involved Cal.

baseball- dodgers
basketball- lakers
football- vikings
college bball- Arizona
college football- ucla/usc/minnesota

and i dont watch hockey or soccer.

265 - You aren't much of a "true" Eagles fan if you liked drafting McNabb when it happened. OR for a couple of weeks every season, although he's gotten much better about when he has those...

279 - Nate, see 253 . Then imagine, say, LeBron and MJ on the same team. I like how someone asked earlier "what happened to the Bruins' D?" and then I saw the Pens had put up 6 goals on them :)

I might've overreacted to Brown's column a little, but when Brown dragged out Cashman to compare with DePodesta, that's when I lost it. There will probably come a time when I'll hope the Dodgers get a new GM, but Brian Cashman won't be on my wish list.

I'd like to think it was good news about Joe McDonnel, but sports talk radio in LA the past year or two seems to be transforming itself out of existence. The characters who replaced "Hacksaw" sound like what you'd get if you hired a couple of 12 year olds and got them drunk. I guess the audience for this kind of programming is vanishing. They can only sell sports if they make it wacky.

I don't think we're too far away from the day when local baseball broadcasts might only be accessible thru some kind of wi-fi/satellite subscription. Meanwhile, over-the-air is going be exclusively political blowhards and herbal product infomercials.

so i just went ovet to the dodgers.com board because i have nothing else to do and wow.... its completely full of plaschkes.

Yeah I used to go there when most people stopped, but it is to the point where I just get angry if I go there.

i use to reply. now i just read. i get too angry when i reply and i could never pass the language filter over there. oops.

I can not even do that very long because it seems they want the team to fail and they want DePodesta to fail. They do not even want him to get good players and succeed.

i really find it funny that people still use terms like "depoidiot, stupidesta, Mccheap, mcbroke" and etc when they are talking about depo and mccourt. i just find it halarious that they need to always use these terms to degrade them everytime they speak of them. as if, it makes them feel superior. but whatever.

most of the people there are completely misinformed. They have all these misconceptions (mostly because of the LA times) that they are arguing using half truths and sometimes, blatant false information. It makes me angry to read, but somehow, i always end up going back and checking the message board. i guess i love the pain. nate= crazy sadist.

I don't know who Herb Brooks is, but yes I would have kept Jose Lima last off season rather than sign Perez. I think he would've done better here, and the Dodgers would have one less boat anchor without Perez. Lima would have been released at the All Star break if he had his KC statistics with the Dodgers. Does not signing Lima somehow validate Depo's methods?

Yeah same I have to atleast look at the threads, even if I do not read them. The headlines are enough to know the feelings of the day.

285

The boards over at myspace are pretty funny too. Most of the jokers over there seem to really love Repko and give him an endorsement for a starting job next season.

When I actually replied a couple of times, I took a Steve-like approach and told them that the only place that Repko should be starting next season is in Las Vegas.

Herb Brooks was the former USA Hockey coach that beat the unbeatable Russians. The Miracle on Ice.

ha, i think i belong to one of those myspace dodger groups/boards. i think its called "dodger fans unite!".
or something.

and re: 287

Sure you can assume lima would be better if he was a dodger this year. But its flawed to also think that way either when you consider that lima was the worst pitcher in all of baseball this year. Pitching in DS isnt going to help him that much. Face it, we caught lightening in a bottle last year with lima and it was the right thing to do to cut ties with him- same with cora, lo duca, green and beltre.

People also forget that the arbitration rules made it impossible for the Dodgers to re-sign Lima at a reasonable price.

He was seeking a multi-year deal from LA, and if they'd offered him arbitration it was projected that he would've gotten around $5 million based on his 2004 numbers.

If DePo could've gotten Lima for what KC did, he probably would've brought him back. That just wasn't possible. KC got Lima after the Dodgers lost negotiating rights. No other team even really wanted him.

Since it's late we can play some hindsight. I would've taken the arb risk with Lima... maybe more out of distaste for Perez and his awful late season performance. I would've signed Kent back when the Astros did. I would've kept Roberts... what was he hurting? I would've kept Lo Duca and given up somebody else for Penny. Who gives up a prime catcher when there's no backup at all? That was the start of my concern with Depodesta's judgement.

Herb Brooks died in an automobile accident in Minnesota in August 2003. He was a huge figure in Minnesota, and it was a big deal when he passed away. I happened to be in St. Paul that day, and people were genuinely upset about it.

I was at the UCLA game tonight (the first one I've ever attended) and, wow. That was fun. I'm very pleased that they seat both the graduate students and undergrads in the same section of the stadium!

UCLA FIGHT-FIGHT-FIGHT!

Roberts was hurt off and on during the 2004 season. And the 2003 season. Mostly hamstring injuries.

Roberts had similar problems this year with the Padres, but had a pretty good year as he somehow managed to hit with a modicum of power.

But really, someone would have wanted to pay Lima a ton of money to pitch as poorly as he did? O Perez's performance, as annoying as it may have been, was not in the seem area code as Lima's 2005.

i thought the first part of tim brown's article was a little muddled.

anyway, the best line of the piece is this little self-effacing gem from white sox GM kenny williams:

"Personally, I needed a guy that could argue with me, because I don't have all the answers," Williams said. "If I walk into a meeting and I'm the smartest guy in the room, we've got a big problem."

[291] i'm also on "dodger fans unite", haha. i never check it though.

honestly, it's not ageism that plagues Depo, but "geekyharvardfaceism". If he looked like he could kick your a%%, the printed hatred would be much lower.

299 - See Beane, Billy

Anyone actually understand Ozzie Guillen? Apparently chairman Jerry Reinsdorf wants McCarthy on the postseason roster, but Ozzie doesn't, so Ozzie belittles him

"Jerry don't know nothing about baseball," Guillen said. "That's the reason we signed [Hernandez]. He's a big-time postseason player. He's got a cold blood. He's the only guy I have with experience in the bullpen. Everyone else, I don't know what I get."

How does he know what he'll get from El Duque? The guy had a 5.12 ERA, and there are numerous guys in the pen that I'd trust more than him

Sorry, I just don't like Ozzie. He's one of the only guys who could make me hate his team more than the Yankees and Giants

[301] on the other hand, guillen got 3 innings of scoreless, 1-hit, 4-strikeout relief from el duque against the red sox. i'm not really taking one side or the other, but i'm just saying.

289 -- It's better, and more accurate, to say that the only place Repko should be starting next year is Fresno.

Just got to love it when the CWS just swept the Red Sox and the manager made maybe the single most important decision in putting El Duque on the playoff roster and then brought him into a situation where the average team scores 2.3 runs and not only shuts them down but proceeds to shut down Ortiz/Manny and he still gets criticized.
You may not no why Ozzie picked El Duque but he said he had his reasons and then he used him in the most important situation in the series and he did about as a good a job as could be done and yet you still find something to criticize him about. He may have gotten lucky but the manager said he was his guy and he came through. Give him some credit, his team just whipped the World Champions and did it fairly easily.
The arrogance of this board is quite amazing. After the White Sox or Angels win the WS many will say it was because of luck and not the residue of design while if the Dodgers had won the World Series it would have because Depo is a boy genius.
Stoneman has made many mistakes but he did:
1. Sign Colon
2. Sign Vlady
3. Sign Escobar
5. Sign Byrd
6. Let Percival go
7. Let a AA starter take a spot in the rotation and use him all year even as he had his ups and downs.
8. Has yet to trade any of his blue chip prospects and his future is much better then the future of the Dodgers because he has a better starting point.

Kenny Williams has also made mistakes but his winning team also did the following:
1. Traded for Contreras who was one of the best pitchers in baseball Sept
2. Traded for Garcia and gave up a starting catcher who lost his job and a blue chip prospect who is now just another journeyman outfielder.
3. Signed AJ who not only provided offense but evidently did a great job with the pitching staff since they have the best pitching in the playoffs.
4. Signed Iguchi
5. Picked up Uribe the starting SS for peanuts from the Rockies
6. Signed Dye who was solid in RF
7. Picked up Bobby Jenks when many other teams wouldn't take a chance on him.

Kenny Williams job is much more impressive then Stonemans cause Stoneman just bought his pennant but Williams made key trades that have all panned out.
JMO

Of course we're arrogant! It's the internet! It makes everybody arrogant!

I don't share in most people's dislike of the Angels. I'm don't like the White Sox, but that's mainly because I just have never liked them and their fans and management. I do think that the White Sox are mischaracterized as a "smallball" or "smartball" team. They hit a lot of home runs.

It will be interesting to see if Williams decides to stand pat with his team after this year or tries to retool a bit to keep up with Cleveland.