Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
It's been almost automatic for me this year. Adrian Beltre's name is mentioned, and inwardly I sigh.
Beltre is a player I have always rooted for, whom I have never stopped rooting for, even now that he wears some other city's uniform.
One year ago, I wanted - and expected - Beltre to do well in 2005, and to do well in a Dodger uniform. Neither happened, and frankly, I haven't wanted to deal with it.
Though Beltre continued to play excellent defense in his first season with the Mariners, his offensive statistics declined dramatically from his near-Most Valuable Player season of 2004 - even when adjusted for the tough hitting environment of Safeco Field in Seattle. Beltre batted .255 this season with an on-base percentage of .303 and a slugging percentage of .413. Using park-neutral statistics, he ranked 15th among 20 major-league third basemen with 475 or more plate appearances in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) and 13th in EQA (Equivalent Average) according to Baseball Prospectus. His OPS+, or on-base percentage plus slugging percentage relative to a league average of 100, was 90, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
Nevertheless, in a world where many decry the $55 million signing of J.D. Drew - who was twice as valuable (31.0 VORP) offensively in 72 games this season than Beltre (15.1) was in 156, people still make the case that letting Beltre go to the Mariners for $64 million was a mistake.
It's a multi-point case arguing that Beltre:
1) would have signed for less money to stay with the Dodgers, had Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta made a more personal effort.
2) plays a valuable defensive position and plays it well.
3) plays almost every day.
4) is 26, meaning his career peak is probably still ahead.
5) was adjusting to a new environment, whereas in his Los Angeles comfort zone he would have done better.
6) was a True Dodger.
Again, speaking as someone who wanted the signing to happen, who completely bought into Beltre's transformation in 2004, let's see how the arguments hold up.
1) Beltre would have signed for less money to stay with the Dodgers, had Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta made a more personal effort.
At some level, this is probably true. If DePodesta had somehow become Beltre's best friend (and I mean that sincerely, not snidely) and then made a competitive offer, it's hard to imagine Beltre leaving.
But how much of a discount would Beltre have granted? Five million dollars? Ten million? Even under the best of circumstances, as long as Beltre agent Scott Boras was negotiating the deal, it's hard to imagine the cost of Beltre's contract coming down very much. Furthermore, isn't it just as likely that in order to make Beltre feel loved, DePodesta would have had to back up his perfume and roses with pretty much the same dollars he would offer someone he didn't love?
While I think the hometown discount argument might be true at some small level, I don't think it's true at a relevant one.
2) Beltre plays a valuable defensive position and plays it well.
A true statement. That the Dodgers struggled to fill third base defensively this year makes it even more pointed. But, speaking again as someone who adored Beltre, it's hard to say that his defensive contributions outweighed his offensive deficiencies enough to make him worth retaining for at least $11 million per year. (And offensively, in 2005, Antonio Perez was better.)
3) Beltre plays almost every day.
Beltre has played more than 150 games in four consecutive seasons and five of the past seven, while suffering from a botched appendectomy in a sixth. In 2004, we watched him play - and even thrive - with painful foot and ankle injuries. He is a gamer.
Where there is doubt going forward, especially in an eight-figure contract, is whether those injuries might reduce his effectiveness, even if he is in the lineup. For example, we have seen Beltre steal 43 bases in 59 attempts during his first three full seasons, then decline to 19 steals in 29 attempts over his next four. Is that a warning sign, or just a tangent?
4) Beltre is 26, meaning his career peak is probably still ahead.
I spent a good part of 2004 arguing that not only was Beltre's offensive explosion in 2004 real, it was not a fluke. (Or are "real" and "not a fluke" the same thing? Oh well - I really just needed a way to link to two past articles.)
Contrary to the belief of even some of his supporters, 2004 was not Beltre's first good season. In 2000, he had an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .835 with 20 home runs, 30 doubles and 56 walks - excellent for almost any third baseman of any age and absolutely outstanding for one who was 21. This followed a .780 OPS season in 1999, quite nice for someone at age 20. As I showed almost three years ago, it is not unusual for a young talent to start strongly, regress slightly, then regroup to become better than ever. For years, Beltre's offensive career track has most closely mirrored perhaps the best player of all time not in the Hall of Fame, Ron Santo. That, combined with the observable changes in Beltre's batting style in 2004 that showed him taking outside pitches to the opposite field instead of trying to pull them, led me to believe that Beltre would fulfill his superstar promise for many years to come.
However, Beltre supporters should at least consider the fact that for three of the past four seasons (we'll ignore the appendectomy year), his OPS has not topped .730. His EQA has not exceed the major league average in those years. There is certainly a great deal of risk that in a given year, Beltre is not going to deliver up to expectations. And that's a big deal when he's a cornerstone of your payroll.
5) Beltre was adjusting to a new environment, whereas in his Los Angeles comfort zone he would have done better.
This, I have to say, is perhaps the most peculiar argument I've seen Dodger fans have. A significant part of Dodger lore is the player who messes up in the L.A. whites, or is traded too soon, then goes on to have great success in another city. In fact, I would suspect that one of the few unifying threads between sabermetrically inclined and sabermetrically disinclined Dodger fans is this notion. So really, I'm surprised to see the argument materialize that the new surroundings hurt Beltre, and I have to think it's specifically a way to defend Beltre out of loyalty, love or hope - if not also a method to discredit DePodesta.
It's safe to say that you can find plenty of ex-Dodgers who needed no adjustment period with their new teams. It's also safe to say that any player who is worth $64 million should be talented enough not to require an adjustment period - that making this very argument undermines the overall case for signing him.
Furthermore, consider the players the Dodgers retain (yes, critics, there are some). Is there any kind of correlation, let alone causation, between repeated seasons in a Dodger uniform and maintaining performance?
Sure, it's completely possible that in the unique case of Beltre, leaving Los Angeles did harm him. We've all needed to adjust to new jobs, new homes, new cities, new bosses, new friends. We've all needed to adjust to distance from our families. But to what extent? Ultimately, it's a speculative argument, the kind of argument that could be made to justify signing any number of people.
At best, we're talking definite maybe on this one.
6) Beltre was a True Dodger.
Yep. Beltre was a home-grown hero. I sure didn't want to lose him. While I will always make the case that fans respond to winning, and that no one would be arguing for Beltre today if the Dodgers had won 91 games without him, I'm not going to criticize someone for wishing a player whose development they invested so much in was not let go. I think one can contend that in a year where he was so key to the team's 2004 success, and so young, and by most accounts so likeable, that DePodesta should have been willing even to overpay for him.
Even if you believe in DePodesta, hindsight now allows you to make a big-picture argument that in order to preserve himself as the long-term administrator of a plan to make the Dodgers a perennial World Series contender, he needed to throw a bone to sentiment - whether that meant not trading Paul Lo Duca, re-signing Jose Lima (gulp) or hanging onto Beltre. The team might have still gone 71-91, but perhaps the outrage would not have been so high. That's not my argument, but I can see it.
So ...
There you are, 1) through 6). Was it a mistake to let Beltre go? Man, I think you have to be awfully generous to Beltre to shout "yes" with any confidence. After all that's been said, Beltre was a flop in the first year of his new contract, worse than Drew, worse than Derek Lowe, worse than Brad Penny, certainly worse than Jeff Kent.
He wasn't worse than Jose Valentin - and look, if money is no object, I'll take Beltre 2005 over Valentin 2005 any day. But money is an object.
Within four years, we'll find out emphatically whether letting Beltre go was a mistake or not. I still think there's every possibility he'll return to All-Star status and make us rue the day (or continue to rue the day) that he left. But it pains me to say it that I'm less confident that day will come, and more open to the possibility that we were saved from witnessing a disappointing five years. After all, there was a time when I was not alone in thinking Raul Mondesi was going to the Hall of Fame.
* * *
I am scheduled to be a guest on KSPN-AM 710's "The Big Show" with Steve Mason and guest host Matthew Berry at 3:40 p.m. today (with a possible rerun of my appearance in the 6 p.m. hour). Listen kindly.
Update: The interview has been postponed until approximately 5 p.m.
* * *
Update: Jeff Angus of Management by Baseball has Part 2 of his series on the McCourts and DePodesta.
Also, Christina Karl has an interesting post on the GM shuffle at baseballprospectus.
Stan from Tacoma
vr, Xei
Good luck this afternoon. I will stomach Steve Mason to listen to you. (Actually I don't think I have ever heard your voice. Obviously read and enjoyed your stuff, seen your picture, but never heard your voice.)
Jon has a voice that sounds like a cross between James Earl Jones and Walter Brennan.
Jon, are you basing this on his B-Ref's Similarity Scores? Because that only measures things like ABs, hits, RBIs, and HRs.
Ron Santo put up a .800+ OPS and above league average OBP four times before he was 26. Beltre put up a .800+ twice and an above league average OBP three times before he was 26. He was clearly a much better hitter than Beltre by the time both were 25.
As you said, Beltre was going to be expensive and it was unclear whether he was going to live up to the dollar value of his contract. More importantly, DePodesta knew how to assemble pieces that, as a whole, could replace his performance with less risk. That makes letting Beltre leave a great decision whether Beltre hits like Alex Rodriguez for the next decade or not. The process, not the result, should determine whether something is a good decision or not.
"The silver lining lies in Beltre's defense. Looking at the Mariner DT card team page, we can see that Beltre ranks second on the squad using either FRAR or FRAA. On the strength of this defense, Beltre does have a shot at being a 5 win player this year. But so what?
Calculating Beltre's Marginal Revenue Product (MRP), we see that his current 3.4 WARP1 total equals $7.28 million in value, and if he does indeed finish as a five win player, the M's still will not be getting the best bang for their buck. Beltre's average annual value equals $12.8 million, and it is unlikely he will be worth that much in 2005. To make matters worse, it was generally perceived that the M's got a bargain because they jumped on the Beltre bandwagon so quickly. "
Considering how closely we all followed the Beltre situation I don't recall anyone saying that they believed the Mariners got a bargain.
I still expect Beltre to bounce back and improve on those 2005 numbers and I'll be surprised if he is not worth 10-12 Million per year over the next few years. He put it all together in August of this year and I expect him to do that for several more months next year instead of just one. I would have no problem placing a bet that Beltre will be worth more then JD Drew over the next 4 years.
http://www.baseballreference.com/about/similarity.shtml
I'm not trying to say that Beltre is Santo's literal equal.
Unless you had objective reason to believe that Duke was going to win - that it wasn't a gamble.
But again, we're quibbling. We certainly will know plenty before 2009; we just won't know it all.
Slow down with your typing there....
Beltre has ALWAYS hit better in the second half. Every year. August was his best month in 2005, 2004, 2003, and 2002. I wouldn't read into it.
Fear: Beltre (whom I also was quite fond of, long longing for his 2004 breakout and soooo very joyful with how much more he presented himself to be that season) might perform so well next year that the critics of DePodesta rub salt into the wounds by claiming more so-called evidence that DePodesta made a mistake.
Jon: consider evaluating the fate of Paul LoDuca, the other long-lamented departee... It might do us all good to re-evaluate the major decisions made along the way to reassure us that the reasons for DePodesta's departure were not based upon rational examination of his decisions, but other things.
(Such as his ability to communicate, manage a major change effort, etc.)
"have to have plenty of Blistex on hand to keep the Bossling happy"
As for Theo Epstein, I would love to see Plaschke's reaction if we signed him. On one hand, he's a young "computer-worshipping nerd." On the other hand, he's won a World Series. Plaschke might self-destruct.
The measure counting stats pretty well. But when you compare the two side by side, they're not very good comps:
Age 20-25 seasons, OPS/OPS+:
Beltre: 780/100, 835/116, 720/93, 729/98, 714/89, 1017/163
Santo: 720/97, 842/121, 659/74, 820/129, 962/164, 888/146
5 times Beltre was at or below league average OPS, Santo only twice.
So who's going to tell him?
Guilty until proven innocent, eh?
It seems to me this is one way a Sabermetric GM will distinguish himself over his traditional counterparts: He will have sophisticated metrics that help him decide what to do about an enigma such as Beltre. He won't always be right, but maybe he'll be right more often. And he'll NEVER give Christian Guzman more than pocket change.
1- the dodger thoughts blog community will rally with pitchforks and fire about mccourts home if he hires bowden
2- get the public to realize how good our farm system is and not to let the new GM blow our future just to win an extra 5 games now. THE JACKSONVILLE DYNASTY WILL ARRIVE SOON!
3- endorse epstein!
Drew is going to undergo surgery for his right shoulder and right wrist on Tuesday, but not the broken left wrist that put him on the DL to begin with, the LA Times reports. "There were things we knew we were going to do over the off-season," GM Paul DePodesta said of the shoulder, referring to it as an "arthritic condition." Drew won't have surgery on his left wrist unless the bone chip there is still bothering him a month from now.
Secondly, he was thowing the ball much harder than he ever did before. He never threw 98 before. He was in the 93-94 range as a starter. It is widely said that steroids will put 3-4 mph on the fastball. I don't buy the notion that he was pacing himself when he was a starter. You'd think he would have thrown his hardest at least once or twice, as a starter.
Like I said, no hard proof. But if he never hits high 90's on his fastball again, I'd wonder why. The fact that Dr. Jobe found his elbow ligament to be 100% intact would mean that there is no physical limitation from Gagne from getting back to his old self. If anything, with all the rest he's getting, he should come back fresher.
Being a roto player, I have to take into account the numbers and how steriod testing was going to change them. I'll be going to a conference on Friday in Arizona that is going to address this in detail. I'm looking forward to the information.
Been alot of starters who converted to relief who were able to add several MPH to their fastball once they were able to air it out on every pitch and not pace themselves.
That was my point Nate. Something is always wrong somewhere, it wasn't just the broken left wrist this year as everyone likes to believe. He could just as easily been benched by the chronic shoulder problem, the right wrist, the surgically repaired knee. Who knows.
broxton was throwing in the low 90s starting at the beginning of the year. made the switch to the bullpen, and his velocity reguarly spiked to the mid to high 90s.
i think it has to do with the ability to just let it fly for one inning and not worrying about retaining the stamina throughout the whole game.
personally, what made gagne so great was not his fb velocity, but the development of one of the best change ups i have ever seen.
Good luck with it Jon.
well we have 4 more years to find out if he can have one fully healthy season. yay!
There is nothing like indisputable proof, just a pattern that I see.
[36] but the fact is that until he got pegged by the fastball, he was in the lineup and he was very productive. so it seems pretty apparent that those other injuries weren't limiting him much.
You have to let those guys at 710 know how awful Bowden is and mention how bad of a signing Crisitan Guzman was. Tell him Jon PLEASSEEE!!!!!
he is always on around the horn. he is halarious, but i dont know how he would know...
He was only productive in June. Everyone seems to have forgotten how mediocre his April and May were. I think Karros and Beltre told him about the Dodger way, which in their case was to use April and May to get ready for the hot weather.
Take it with a grain of salt and please don't stone me over it. It's just something I heard.
Good luck Jon, Mason can be a real @@@-hole at times and will most likely take some cheap shots at Depo. I also hope you can make some good plugs for the DT blog, Theo and the sabermetric ship o fools. I will try to find an online link to listen. :)
vr, Xei
My take: Let everyone use it, or don't let anyone use it.
In considering Beltre, one possible reason for his decline was just plain jitters. A lot of players, especially young guys, start pressing when they get their first big contract, whether with their old team or a new one. Has anyone tracked how many pitches Beltre took per AB compared with '04? That might be one indicator. Another is where he hit the ball--pulling everything again?
For those who say, "Where is the indisputable proof?" I say, "Fair enough." 'Nuff said on the subject.
I'd rather Jimmy stayed clean so he can continue to mess up the Nationals and trade us Wilkerson and Patterson. I no longer fear that Jimmy Bowden will become our GM. If it is so then all those chicken littles will have been proven right and I'll just have to find something else to do other then drive myself crazy over the state of the Dodgers.
http://tinyurl.com/78y6r
There is an interesting article at Mike's Baseball Rants called 'Saber-Rattled', which is mostly about Theo Epstein but in the first paragraph it mentions Depodesta getting fired, and rightly so. There was no explaining as to why the author thought he should've been fired.
vr, Xei
I don't either. But it's absurd to just start naming people you think take them because they look like they might take them.
Has anyone tracked how many pitches Beltre took per AB compared with '04? That might be one indicator.
It isn't that.
2005 P/PA: 3.96
2004 P/PA: 3.75
I think it's pretty clear that Beltre had a fluke season.
Apparently Michael Pillar just died.
Damn, he wasn't that old.
I dont see how this situation is any different than when Joe Dumars fired Rick Carlisle, and replaced him with Larry Brown.
If the best guy is out there, you go get him, no matter if the current guy is doing a good job or not. And I think thats strictly what will happen in this case.
Tommy Lasorda is overrated on this site.
At least Steve Phillips isn't being mentioned for the GM slot.
Sheesh, I'm like Moe the Bartender.
Considering that they fired DePo a day before Epstein backed out of signing a new contract, you have no way of knowing that.
I just don't see Tommy coming to the "We hired Theo" press conference, and I think McCourt is so dependent on Tommy's implicit endorsement of his wonderfulness, he'll give Lasorda veto power.
Plus, I think McCourt is too cheap to hire a guy who will need $1.5 million to come, unless he knows for sure that DePo is going to leave his payroll soon.
Finally, if Theo didn't like Lucchino, why would he want to deal with McCourt, who combines all of Lucchino's arrogance with an aggressive stupidity, a fundamental dishonesty and a propensity to empower unqualified family members?
She rolled her eyes at me. I don't think she quite gets all of this.
I am "done" with the Lakers thanks to the disgusting Kobe show, so I do have a track record of following through, at least that one time. But I was never half as invested in the Lakers as I am in the Dodgers.
Nah, he'd just take that as a sign that people care. The thing that would really annoy him is the appearance of a blog named Angel Thoughts...
1. hire the Tommy/Bowden/Valentine crew
2. replace Kim Ng
3. make trades like LaRoche and Navarro for Jorge Posada (or Beltre for Drew as someone mentioned earlier)
4. throw a bunch of money at Konerko, Jacque Jones, and Jeff Weaver
I might have to find something else to do this summer. I like the Brewers. I like Depo's DRays.
Everyone is entitled to their speculation, but under this theory you would have to attribute a level of competence and savvy to the McCourts far in excess of anything we ever seen.
72--"a propensity to empower unqualified family members"
Isn't that how Frank ended up CEO of his family's company?
Don't ruin this by invoking logic and rational thought.
Right now, it appears that I'm choosing between Epstein and Bowden (if Orel is too green, and Gillick is indeed off to Philly). Let me have my delusions, at least until reality hits.
Look at the flip side of that question: As the most sought after candidate, he could demand to pick his assistants.
Unless Theo favors the SD gig, I'm not sure there is a better job opening up in the foreseeable future.
By the way McCourt just announced he has not contacted Epstein. Two ways to look at this. One he is trying to hide it because Theo hated all the leaks that came out of Boston so McCourt is trying to keep everything in house. The second is he has not contacted him for whatever stupid reason he has.
He's not been a good GM, but his badness is being over-stated. Some of his better trades through the years are:
--miscellaneous never-weres for David Wells
--Jeff Shaw for Paul Konerko
--Dave Burba for Sean Casey
--Paul Konerko for Mike Cameron
--Mike Cameron, Brett Tomko & Antonio Perez (the very same) for Ken Griffey Jr. (not Bowden's fault Griffey got hurt)
--Drew Henson for Wily Mo Pena
His only really awful trade (before the ordered 2003 sell-off that can't be laid at his feet) was Paul O'Neill for Roberto Kelly. He had other misses, of course, but most weren't forseeable: Ben Broussard for Russell Branyan, for example, or Juan Encarnacion for the injured Ryan Dempster.
Plus he drafted reasonably well, bringing to the league the likes of Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn, BJ Ryan, Aaron Boone & Ben Broussard. He's not, at least as far as I can tell, a Steve Phillips trade-all-prospects-for-over-the-hill-wash-ups-type.
There's no explaining Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman, however, and there's no question the Dodgers can do much, much better.
Of course, I had no say in the matter if I wanted to work there.
Long ago, I realized that it would be far more reasonable if I lived on a 100-acre plantation on Maui than where I live now. Only problem is, I can't afford it.
By the same token, McCourt cannot afford a $100 million budget. One little factoid that slipped out during last week's insanity is that DePo's budget was never $100 million. McCourt was lying about that, and DePo loyally repeated the lie. (One reason I'm not missing him as much as I might've otherwise.)
The Lakers won with a lot of people named Buss working there, and practically every NFL team has the boss'family stashed somewhere (Mara,Rooney,Jones,etc).
Young Drew may not know jack about marketing, but it has no impact on the standings.
If McCourt was smart, he'd do everything in his power to snag Epstein, but he isn't all that smart, and even if he were, Theo may simply have different priorities right now. People also need to remember that McCourt was a big fan of Nomah, and Theo is the man who traded Nomah away, so we shouldn't assume the Boston connection would automatically incline him to make a move to hire Theo.
As long as we can avoid Bowden, I think the world won't end if it's either Gillick or Hunsicker. Ng is in my view the dark horse, not likely, but not impossible, either. Too bad McCourt's such a pathetic simp--if he had a capacity for bold leadership, and he knew how to play this right in the press, appointing Ng could really change the terms of the debate around him and let him draw off the glow of No. 42 to some extent.
It's a shame I'm sure Dan Evans would never willingly come back, because I wouldn't mind him back in charge.
WWSH
I do believe Hershiser will be named as something, judging from his comments after his interview.
I guess we'll all find out soon enough.
I like your optimism :-)
Just out of curiosity, where'd you see the report?
WWSH
Everyone did. Here's what the Boston Globe said on October 28:
"Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein and president/CEO Larry Lucchino met multiple times yesterday, and by last night there was every indication an agreement will be reached that will keep Epstein as GM for the next three years. A formal announcement could come today."
And on the 31st:
"Epstein and the Red Sox have agreed to an extension of that length, keeping the Brookline native in place as the team's GM through the 2008 season, according to multiple major league sources.
No news conference was scheduled as of last night, but the deal is expected to be announced either today or tomorrow at Fenway Park."
To say that Gammons is out of the loop because Epstein didn't stay in Boston isn't accurate. Theo surprized everyone when he walked away.
He was better in 2000 than he was in 2005. I am happy that Seattle has to pay for that. Not us.
ESPNnews said McCourt issued that statement
2. Jessica Alba wants to have a threeway and my wife says yes;
3. I wake up tomorrow and I am 30 yrs younger;
4. Theo becomes the 2006 GM of the LA Dodgers.
The first three are more likely to happen.
I think your wife would even say yes to Jessica Alba I mean come on she's Jessica Alba.
He only bettered his non 2004 career numbers in one catagory: doubles.
My gut reaction was that Safeco was a better park for 2Bs, but it isn't. Interesting.
And Beltre hit 25 more HR than before. Not 35.
Oh, please, let it NOT be Bowden, although the previous poster who laid out Bowden's deals made him look less heinous.
I think Hunsicker would then be the most likely possibility if Gillick really is out of it.
Also, I'm sorry to say that considering our disarray, Bowden may prefer DC, a franchise which is about to get a new stadium in a big market that has the potential of becoming a first-rank franchise. The Blue looks to be going downhill right now. In the end, Ng may be the last candidate left standing, assuming she really wants the job. Considering how she's weathered previous regime changes, and the fact that she herself probably knows that she's not going to get as many opportunities to be GM, she may end up getting the job by default.
WWSH
Congratulations to 1B/3B prospect, Eduardo Perez, for winning the GCL award...
Of course, the implication of the thought I had at the end of that post is that Hunsicker may also pass on the Dodger job, since our owner looks so inept.
WWSH
He actually hit 25 more home runs in 2004 then his previous high.
I tend to believe that he isn't a serious candidate. But I bet Dennis Gilbert is pushing hard for the job.
Go Jon!!!! Very excited to hear his interview, just worried that he will be swimming with one of the sharks (Mason). Ireland is cool though.
vr, Xei
Your standards must be high indeed.
He's also said that division should be tiered by revenue.
Of course that was just because Bowden is a big time national guy that would come on their little po-dunk (?) local show.
Didn't he get a courtesy interview from McCourt last time?
GM candidates mentioned in regard to the Dodger job:
Bowden
Hunsicker
Gillick
Hershiser
Epstein
Ng
Valentine
vr, Xei
But it's really really unlikely, and the chief reason is that Theo and DePo are basically the same. They're both young, Ivy league, have roughly the same amount of experience, and are statistically inclined. Neither of them are self-promoters and prefer to work in the background -- Theo won't be out there schmoozing the media. Both have traded or let go of popular players and both have made some questionable long-term committments to others. For all the complaining about DePo's "communication problems", there's been some about Theo as well.
The chief differences between Theo and DePo are:
- Theo inherited better players
- Theo had a hell of a lot more money to spend
- Theo lucked out on David Ortiz becoming DAVID ORTIZ
- Theo wasn't a character in Moneyball
You think Theo's WS ring would protect him from the LA fans and media if he tried to bring in Mark Bellhorn to replace Alex Cora? Or Terry Francona to be manager? Or if he brought in guys like Mike Remlinger to fill out the bullpen? It'd be the exact same thing all over again.
If it really was a master plan to get Theo, then McCourt is even dumber than I thought, because throwing your entire organization into chaos to get a guy who isn't really any better or different than the guy you already have is not the most sound plan.
Sorry for the long post. And I agree with all the pro-Jessica Alba posts.
Do not forget Roger Dorn. He got the Indians to the Series.
4-2 does not equal 3 LOL
Don't worry. With the Dodgers now, it's not about the numbers. It's about heart. It's about tools.
4-2 can equal 3 if you have heart and soul.
dont believe me?
http://tinyurl.com/dgrwp
now gillick is off the list, we must get hunsicker before he is snatched up. he is a really good GM and that would mean no bowden.
mccourt should let DT be GM instead of bowden. i am pretty sure we could do a better job than him.
Sorry Bob, it's not often, but you missed one.
Who would win between Mee and Ireland?
Those heads always remind me of a twilight zone episode I saw as a kid that scared the crap out of me.
The Brewers organization is pretty dang good.... like light years ahead of the Pirates (hahahahahah, that's me thinking about Tracy).
If you think learning all this "stathead" stuff about baseball opened your mind, you should try reading McClellan Committe transcripts and studying McCarthy and then a few years later have access to Venona Documents.
I always hear Steve Miller's My Friend Lyrics... when people say "McCarthyism"
I don't think it's that stupid to try to replace DePo with Theo. DePo did all the "dirty work" already. DePo is synonymous with "The Trade" and Shawn Green and Adrian Beltre. Theo, while similar to DePo in philosophy, doesn't have that tag. For the McCourts, shedding the "bad" image of DePo for Theo may be a worthwhile investment. It keeps the team (supposedly) in good hands and appeases local MSM. It could be the McCourts's version of "repainting the walls." ie, http://cmdr-scott.blogspot.com/
Of course you have to make that intellectual leap that the McCourts are capable of thinking this out.
I'm not sure what his creds are, other than being the GM of the team close to Andy Pettite and Roger Clemens' hometowns.
He did have the foresight to let both Dotel and Wagner go, and give the ball to Lidge (which seemed like the right decision until ever so recently).
This is what snaps me back into reality. It seems that they aren't capable of making all of these moving pieces work together, but unbeknownst to them all.
Maybe they're big fans of Survivor? Or maybe he just got lucky and Theo could fall into his lap. Whatever, just make the call!
(hahahahahah, that's me thinking about Tracy).
Funny, I had almost forgotten about Tracy. Seems like he was fired 5 offseasons ago.
Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy if Theo did join the Dodgers, I just think it's an extreme long shot. Although if I were him, I'd demand $2 million/year, for Lasorda to have an office completely off the Dodger Stadium property, and the right to give Plaschke a wedgie whenever it was necessary.
Not to overindulge the Theo pipe dream, since I can't imagine why he'd want to work for the McCourts, but is he considered a "good communicator" - the "heart and soul" equivalent for GMs?
Marty and I were just making jokes after we saw the topic.
I think the vast majority of us here on DT don't really care too much one way or the other.
Now if the Venona Files mention Jim Bowden, we'll be all over it!
Yeah I never really understoof why people held Hunsicker in such high regard.
It was a bad contract the day Bagwell signed it and has nothing to do with the fact that he is currently useless but how do you cut loose the hometown hero?
Well, that's our main problem, isn't it? We just have to hope the McCourts somehow stumble into the right cours of action.
We must put our faith in the Big Dodger in the Sky to guide our empty-headed owner to the promised land.
WWSH
Don't be nervous, just remember your much smarter then they are and you don't have to pander to their ignorant audience like they do.
They fleeced Baird in KC.
Now Jon is going to spend the whole interview staring at Ireland's head and not be able to put together a coherent thought.
It's radio, so it's hard to stare at anyone.
They did take part in the Beltran trade of that year too.
141--If Roger Dorn is a candidate, why not old Pop Fisher who got the New York Knights to the World Series?
175/176 - also correct, though I believe Beane has been treated fairly on this score.
He should have said I assume the fans would like these decisions because I like them. Sadly though he is probably right.
Ughh that name just reminds me of one play that needs not to be spoken.
If Lasorda is running the Dodgers like some claim here, wouldnt his guy at least get an interview?
hes good at player development. lidge, berkman, ensberg, oswalt, etc, are all his players that he developed in his tenure.
he has made some good FA signings, pettite, clemens and kent come to mind. Hes not afraid of the midseason deal (ie beltran) where he gave away spare parts and was one game short of going to the WS.
he did give bagwell a really long contract, that seems to be his only fault. What i heard was that he was hesitant to give that contract to bagwell but was forced too by the owner. im not sure if thats right though.
Sorry for all the posts today, I think I'm suffering from no Dodger GM syndrome where I can't do anything worthwhile until I know if the Dodgers are going to get a GM I can get behind.
jessica alba is still hotter, though. but that's like picking between pujols and a-rod.
It's more of a linner.
oh wow, she is like my dream girl in that movie.
re bball season starting
im still a laker fan, so im excitied the season opener tomorrow is on espn. i think the lakeshow will surprise people this year. I think kobe, kwame and odom will work well together.
Elisha had a great "morning after" scene in Old School. "Girl Next Door" is just a great movie, and she is really good in it.
But Jon said Hunsicker never had a playoff series winning team so he was not the one to get Petitte, Clemes, and Beltran. Lidge was a starter that got wrecked due to injury and they just moved him to relief to try to salvage him and Oswalt was an unheralded pick that ended up just being a really lucky pick, kind of like Harden with the A's I would give more credit to the head of scouting or the scout that said pick Oswalt. Hunsicker allowed his young guys to play which I like but I mean I never thouht he did a lot of great things.
Actually he did not want to give Bagwell that contract but the owner wanted to. That is one of the reasons why he left.
Romanowski's book... aren't they two weeks late discussing that topic. By the way Romanowski shares the same birthday as me.
although he did give up some good talent in that trade, it helped them greatly.
I was also with Howard. I was willing to bet anyone here 100 bucks that Kent would have more rbi than beltre in 05 and most of you were smart enough not to take that bet.
Didn't I see in NL Champ series that the Astros have won more games than all team in the last 10 years besides the Cardinals and Yankees and Braves?
hire hunsicker and larry dierker!
Yeah I like the idea of Dierker. I do not see it happening though.
mccourt needs to get on the phone with hunsicker ASAP because he goes too. when the dust settles, i dont want to be left with only bowden available. please mccourt, do something right.
We really need Theo.
5-750 tuesdays and thursdays
I am in college.
also, some other ones from other orgs:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C Braves
Daric Barton 1b/dh/lf A's
*Andre Ethier OF A's
*from reports ive read of ethier, i get the picture that he is a lot similar to kemp in his ability and play.
i think hes asking hobos, since he has a 5pm class and still in HS.
i'm hunsicker-neutral. i wouldn't mind him i suppose.
My guess is, despite Tommy's statement that he's not qualified, Orel will get the GM job. The manager is up in the air to me. I think Bobby V. won't end up leaving Japan for this Dodger franchise at this time. A lot of people who "love" Tommy Lasorda wouldn't want him in their management hierarcy.
It's almost funny that Gillick would give McCourt and Tommy the high hat after the way they oozed and leaked all over him since Saturday. "Uh yeah, thanks for the nice words and all, but, uh...gotta go!"
nate- the Lakers are going to be amazing. I can't wait to see Kobe Bryant play unselfishly, Odom to turn into Scottie Pippen and Kwame Brown become the next Jermaine O'Neal. Don't even get me started on Smush "Bob Cousy" Parker...
Yes, I would say firing your GM two years into his 5 year deal is sending up red flags for the quality GM's who are out there. If I'm a prospective GM I will want a better explanation then McCourt gave the public and it is possible they won't like the real explanation any better then the public one. Sure seemed like Gillick couldn't take the Phillie job fast enough after being interviewed last night if that is correct.
I'd take that job. Their prospects are more major-league ready than the Dodgers', and they are stacked! Expectations for that franchise will always be low. They'd throw a parade for you if you finished .500. And then there's the drama entailed in possibly knocking off the Yanks and Sox, which would make you a legend--and that goal doesn't seem completely unattainable (within 2-3 years, not in '06). Plus, their new owner hasn't yet proven himself as a twit like McCourt has. He might even be a good guy.
UCSB and you forgot Chris Mullin Mihm and Devean the Iceman George.
Beat the Kings and get a 3 seed, otherwise they sneak in with a 6,7, or 8 seed.
Of course, you still have to deal with Dallas, Houston, and of course, San Antonio.
bynum has been very impressive too. he just turned 18 last thursday! with jackson and kareem helping him grow as a player and individual, i thnk hes going to be very good in his prime years barring injury.
Visions of a long, white beard come to mind, if that's what you're waiting for.
and drop down to view predictions for NBA Champs.
You are forgetting the Warriors they are a different team with Baron Davis. They have a lot of depth with Peitrus, Fisher, Diogu, Taft, Biedrins, etc. Jason Richardson will take it to a new level this year.
I am off to class good luck Jon, show em who's boss.
OK, if the kids allow I will attempt it. I'll spit it out as fast as I can, so please attribute any typos to flying fingers...
Go Bobby V, I hope you get that one.
So we don't have to even worry about the possibility he'll end up in LA.
That's odd, since the LAT store on Bobby made it sound like it'd be really difficult to get him to come back to manage in the US.
WWSH
Ooops, store should by story.
WWSH
http://tinyurl.com/cytep
Random thought: I wonder if the Dodgers will have a GM and manager before spring training? Ahem...
All hail our ascendancy to the throne!
If Jamie goes and enjoys herself, the supposedly improbable, impossible, untenable Jamie for GM scenario looms as a little more possible.
Another finalist for the TB job is a guy I wish the Dodgers would consider--Joe Maddon. But then, do I want the Angels to lose him? Oh, Plaschke, tell me true? Where do my loyalties go?
Jon says he didn't agree with the firing of DePo. Even if you're not a supporter of DePo, how can you justify firing him AND Tracy, he says.
Jon will be banished to satellite radio.
ESPN 710 will have to go shut down after the FCC fine bankrupts them.
Also mentions that Bowden was ripping Evans while he was here.
Jon says that people respond to winning, and adds that DePo wasn't the mystery he was made out to be. He says it was more of people not buying into what DePo was doing.
Jon says it's a good question and unknowable. Mentions the names of Dunn, Matsui, Giles. Says he can't think of one name that is a lock to come here. With no GM and a mystery budget, how can we know?
Jon agrees, mentioning that the farm system lately has been mostly hype with guys like Thurston. Now the system is ranked among the top two in baseball and we have real players, he says.
And with that -- see ya, Jon!
hmmm, guesses on who is mason??
They were very kind to me, weren't they?
burritos are the perfect food.
The place looked like a big beer-toilet paper-and-guacamole bomb had exploded. It was also the morning after the time change, which had a lot of people really confused.
I had a breakfast burrito at the Cantina. Mmmm....
It also would have been good to point out that signing someone that was totally against the current two year program would set the team back considerably.
Damn Romo took your time.
A little more on topic, my brain hurts even trying to think of what I would want as an ideal yet realistic offseason from this moment forward. I'm too shocked and dazed and generally turned around. What GM? What manager? What free agents? What callups? What trades? I used to always have an idea of what I'd like to see happen. Now I feel like thinking about it probably isn't even worth it. What are some of your "ideal within reason" scenarios?
GM: Branch Rickey
Manager: Walter Alston
What you get:
GM: Jamie McCourt
Manager: Bobby Valentine's dog
The more likely bad thing that will happen is that la creme de Jacksonville will be promoted en masse to the big club. Kent, but not Gagne, will be traded for some AAA-ers. Could be interesting, could be gruesome. I don't like forcefeeding kids as a rule. But, better to forcefeed them than to trade them.
Hunsicker is GM. The manager is someone he chooses, someone who will implement his plan... which involves a real look at Choi.
I may have already strayed into The Land of Unlikelihood.
Pickup of Giles.
Aybar 3B
Choi 1B
Drew RF
Kent 2B
Giles LF
Bradley CF
Navarro/Martin C
Robles P
Somebody who knows more about the Jacksonville Six can fill in which one gets paired with Perez and traded. That person can also tell me who the object of the trade is. Who says I shouldn't be the GM!
Penny
Mystery Starting Pitcher
Lowe
Billingsley
Jackson/Dessens/Kavula
Ugh. This job is hard.
BTW Jon - I think Matthew was reading the email I sent the show yesterday with the excerpt of yesterday's blog.
*Navarro/Martin C
Robles P*
Should be:
Navarro/Martin C
Robles SS
Right?
You will also notice that my ideal roster for next year has myself competing for the 5th starter job.
Did everyone see what just happened there? I have been reduced to campaigning for a GM candidate because they seem like "a reasonable person." Oh misery..
He knows Jessica Alba AND Geoff Blum! What a pair!
And he's been in my car!
WOW!
I've heard that this Brutus guy is an honorable man. Maybe he should get a chance. He might be reasonable too.
that is what someone posted on the espn dodger board.
again, this is the espn dodger board but, yea i think he is just messing with everyone.
so what does everyone think theo's first personel move will be? (not counting a managerial hire)
I think I might be ill....
Ng by definition isn't part of baseball's old boys club. I believe she used to be in the Yankee front office and was originally a specialist in negotiations--I think she knows all the ins-and-outs of the CBA and may even have worked in the Commissioner's Office for a time. She was one of Evans' chief aides, which is why she handled Gagne's arbitration hearing, since DePo was so new to the org. I believe that before Collins was brought in, she ran the Farm on an interim basis, which I think she herself wanted to do since she had little background in player development and felt that that absence would hurt her in the future.
I don't know about Ng's attitudes toward statistical methods, but she seemed to get along just fine with DePo. And I presume she shares both Evans' and DePo's emphasis on building from within and long-term focus, which is really in the end the most important thing in my view.
My bold and ungrounded prediction of the evening is that Bowden will simply turn down an offer from us, out of hopes he can swing a long-term job out of whatever owner takes over in DC. Bobby V. will refuse to leave Japan and Orel will be made field manager. Having no remaining GM candidates left, Kim Ng will be tagged with the job out of pure desperation. Jamie McCourt will introduce her as part of that Women in Baseball iniative, or whatever that thing's called. McCourt's PR firm will have the sense to play this up for everything it's worth.
And out of all this swirl, Ng will show herself to be a good GM, she'll keep the farm intact, and we'll contend in the division. Payroll will stay static, although not as low as some of us fear. If Barry remains out of it, we may even win the NL Worst. We'll promptly leave the playoffs in the First Round, but Orel's aura and Ng's status as the Front Office version of Mia Hamm (sp?) will keep the media off McCourt's back. This will buy enough time for McCourt to keep himself afloat until the Jacksonville Dynasty comes in, which will in the end save both him and the franchise, at no credit to either him or his wife.
WWSH
but he didnt post this under his ledeesmom persona lol.
While there seems to be a few too many moving parts in that scenario, I'd take it.
True. It was just one of his regular moron personas.
Nats team president Tony Tavares also said that the Los Angeles Dodgers, seeking a replacement for fired general manager Paul DePodesta, had not contacted him for permission to speak with GM Jim Bowden, who signed a six-month extension with the Nationals last week.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
www.washingtonpost.com/wp...01504.html
And does anyone want this:
It has been speculated that the Dodgers would offer Valentine both titles -- manager and general manager -- with Lasorda serving as his senior consultant and Orel Hershiser as an assistant.
It all comes down in the short term at least to Bowden. It presumes Bowden has the sense to realize just how bad a spot our franchise in, and enough ego to think that he'll persuade the new Nats owner to keep him on the job. If he elects the job security of a position from McCourt and really is on good terms with Tommy, and I think McCourt will make him an offer, then we'll just have to live with him as our GM.
WWSH
WWSH
this possibility is probably worst than bowden as GM.
I think McCourt will be asking permission soon. Wasn't that report from earlier today, before Gillick backed out?
WWSH
But there has to be a reason DePo got the heave-ho, and Ng doesn't expain that. The Lasorda narrative makes sense in a horrifying way. The Epstein narrative makes sense in a not horrifying way (McCourt is still a jerk, but at least he isn't an idiot, too). Maybe Ng will be a happy Plan B, but I don't think she's the first choice.
Anyway, the appointment of GM is secondary to McCourt's "love me" complex which will probably prompt him to force whoever the new GM is to trade some of the enormous minor league talent for a bandaid solution and good PR. Earlier someone mentioned something about pitchforks and torches at McCourt's house. Anyone got the address? Hmm. How much does airfare from NC to LA run nowadays?
i know a place in LA that will give us discounts if we order more than 15
Fern - Where in NC do you live?
I live in Durham as well. Moved here from Oregon 2 years ago. We live in Old West Durham.
http://tinyurl.com/9tlrr
Not sure whether Old West counts as a "nicer" neighborhood, but there are some great houses in this neighborhood that are also pretty affordable. I'm a doctoral student at UNC. Can't say I really like living here all that much.
One source said Herzog won Executive of the Year in 1982, but Retrosheet only lists one winner for that award (from the Sporting News) and it was Harry Dalton. Herzog did win Manager of the Year.
Owens, despite leading the Phillies to the World Series with an aged team, won neither Executive of the Year (Hank Peters) nor NL Manager of the Year (Lasorda) in 1983.
the first was the adam dunn scouting excursion.
this can be the "threaten the mccourts with pitchforks and burn down thier home" escapade.
Oh, mark my words: the pitchfork activities will exceed mere threats.
D4P wants to poke McCourt's cat.
Do you have a local spot where you catch games during the season? We could start a west coast transplants dodger support group.
Hmmm...are you implying that Depo wanted to get fired all along?
3 years paid vacation >>> 3 years paid work
Epstein will probably take the year off unless Towers takes his Boston job and he can take the Padres job. Just my humble opinion...
No, I haven't been watching any games. I'd be kinda surprised if they were on anywhere. Do you watch the games? I can't say I'm overly excited to watch them these days. Last season I paid for MLB audio and listened to Vin* while following along on Gameday.
*Technically I also listened to Steiner and Monday, but I try to forget that as much as possible.
I did the same thing. I contemplated getting the MLB.tv package, but I was getting a miserly stipend from UNC and could barely afford house payments. So, I sat through the little blue and red orbs on mlb.com and saw the whole heart-breaking season in my mind's eye.
There has to be a local bar, among the dozens, with the extra innings package that we can persuade to show dodger games on a daily basis.
Where do you teach now?
I think it was more of Depo stumbling into a great situation. For himself anyway. But if Epsteing takes the job hoping for something similar to happen, I wouldn't blame him. :)
1. Look at how unceremoniously DePodesta was dumped. Do we really think McCourt is going to hire another SABR guy? Do we really think another SABR guy is going to trust McCourt?
2. Nobody leaves the Red Sox to come to the 2005 Dodgers. Nobody. Sorry.
3. I maintain my Lasorda/Hershiser prediction. If Lasorda isn't going to be GM, then it'll be Valentine/Hershiser. Alternatively, the McCourts will wind up losing a very pricey game of musical chairs.
Are you planning on staying here long? We want to leave as soon as possible.
Well, the job opportunities here are really bad for my wife. That's really the main reason. She's been miserable since our arrival. We don't have any family near, nor any really good friends. We also don't like the weather.
I have always assumed so.
What does your wife do?
There is no way that Lasorda will be named the official GM. The man is 78 years old and even the McCourts are smart enough to know that they can't sell that to the idiot press.
1. It has nothing to do with SABR or statistics. It's all about Plaschkers. Epstein can wave his magic ring at them and they go away (for a while).
2. You leave the Red Sox because you hate your boss. You come to the Dodgers because they have a stacked farm system, medium-high payroll, and players in the show that you would have liked to have signed.
3. Lasorda isn't going to GM. He's just too darn old and doesn't want the hours. I think the musical chairs scenario is the most likely
I can stand the humidity fine. One of the perks of being a teacher is that you don't have to sweat through any dress shirts in the summer.
I'll talk to you later D4P. Going to bed. I've got to recharge before facing another roomfull of tuned-out adolescents. Good talking to you.
Yeah, the landscape design here is very uninspiring. As a student, I can wear shorts and sandals everyday, but I still sweat like a pig in the humidity.
Good talking to you too. I don't envy your time spent with adolescents. I could never teach anything less than college.
I never lived in Southern California, although I was born in Northern CA. UCLA and UC-Irvine have programs in my field, but we both hate Southern California, so I doubt we'll end up there. But that's good to hear that there's a little money to be made.
Luckily (i guess) Washington is the closest NL park. Besides that, and the farm systems, its about as far from Dodger Land as it gets.
BTW, My job was for nowhere near that.
Does she work for herself, or for a firm?
The projects my wife currently works on are often projects in which the landscape design is required by local regulations, and the developers want to do as little as necessary to get by. In the case of residential projects, the homeowners are choosing to have the project done, and are often willing to spend more money. She hasn't done much residential thus far.
Ah well.
With Bowden looming on the horizon, is this some sort of demented nightmare? When do I get to wake up?
Halloween was actually the weakest its been. A lot of people but still nowhere near what is normal. The cool thing was that it lasted 4 days because Halloween fell on a Monday. Wow to move from SB to NC that is quite a change of scenery.
Signed a frustrated Dodger fan in the San Fernando Valley!! I am truly looking for a light at the end of the tunnel.
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