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Every year, you try to get at least 4,300 quality innings from your outfield: three outfielders x nine innings x 162 games. For 2005, Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta invested approximately $15.5 million to get his 4,300 innings. Based on past performance, what did DePodesta have the right to expect from his investment?
Here are the 2005 salaries for the Dodgers' six principal outfielders, followed by their most recent major-league statistics and what I think would have been a conservative preseason expectation for 2005 performance. (EQA is a league- and park-adjusted measure of offensive value, where .260 is average.)
J.D. Drew, $11 million
Year | Outfield Innings | EQA |
---|---|---|
2004 | 1,242 | .332 |
2003 | 587 | .300 |
2002 | 947 | .276 |
2001 | 900 | .334 |
2000 | 978 | .291 |
2005 expectation | 925 | .306 |
Milton Bradley, $2.5 million
Year | Outfield Innings | EQA |
---|---|---|
2004 | 1,188 | .274 |
2003 | 839 | .324 |
2002 | 749 | .257 |
2001 | 497 | .215 |
2000 | 326 | .208 |
2005 expectation | 925 | .285 |
Ricky Ledee, $1 million
Year | Outfield Innings | EQA |
---|---|---|
2004 | 273 | .231 |
2003 | 491 | .253 |
2002 | 372 | .239 |
2001 | 563 | .224 |
2000 | 930 | .220 |
2005 expectation | 425 | .237 |
Jayson Werth, $337,000
Year | Outfield Innings | EQA |
---|---|---|
2004 | 653 | .281 |
2003 | 108 | .231 |
2002 | 121 | .256 |
2005 expectation | 700 | .260 |
Jason Grabowski, $327,000
Year | Outfield Innings | EQA |
---|---|---|
2004 | 228 | .237 |
2003 | 7 | -.183 |
2002 | 27 | .427 |
2005 expectation | 200 | .230 |
Jason Repko: $316,000
Year | Outfield Innings | EQA |
---|---|---|
2005 expectation | 200 | .220 |
Now, here's a comparison between these rudimentary 2005 projections and the outfield's 2005 actual stats:
2005 Player | Projected Innings | Projected EQA | Actual Innings | Actual EQA |
---|---|---|---|---|
Drew | 925 | .306 | 623 | .323 |
Bradley | 925 | .285 | 628 | .291 |
Ledee | 425 | .237 | 477 | .276 |
Werth | 700 | .260 | 830 | .264 |
Grabowski | 200 | .230 | 193 | .178 |
Repko | 200 | .220 | 704 | .239 |
DePodesta appears to have been an outfielder short heading into Spring Training. Conservatively, he had about 2,550 innings of average to above-average outfield performance, leaving him 1,800 shy of what he needed in a lineup that was already carrying below-average hitting at catcher, if not at third base and shortstop as well.
Interestingly, thanks to Ledee's surprising .276 EQA, those preseason expectations were exceeded despite the widespread injuries. Overall, Drew, Bradley, Ledee and Werth gave the Dodgers 2,558 outfield innings of superior EQA. DePodesta had four good guys he just needed one or two more. The Dodgers remained an outfielder short, although late in the season, Jose Cruz, Jr. helped matters by providing an additional 367 innings of .314 EQA.
In the end, DePodesta delivered the equivalent of two above-average outfielders for $15.5 million, or nearly $8 million each. That's not bad at all - the only problem, perhaps, is that he didn't invest (or wasn't allowed to invest) enough in the outfield. (Update: To be fair, as I noted in the comments below, I optimistically felt back in February that Werth would play about 150 games at about a .280 EQA.) To be sure, one must ask the question, even in their abbreviated seasons, where would the Dodgers have been without Drew and Bradley?
It's also possible to speculate that had DePodesta retained Dave Roberts (900 innings, .284 EQA in 2005) in the summer of 2004 instead of Grabowski, DePodesta might still be working for the Dodgers today. The Roberts trade, which brought only non-prospect Henri Stanley in return, was more costly for the Dodgers than trading Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota and Juan Encarnacion for Brad Penny, Hee Seop Choi and Bill Murphy.
The now DePodesta-less Dodgers enter the 2005-06 offseason with continuing outfield questions. Ledee is an outfielder with flashes of talent that you can't count on. Cruz does more but also remains inconsistent. Werth looks to be average maybe he can bump things up a bit. Drew is outstanding when healthy; Bradley (if staying) is solidly behind him. But again, these guys won't be enough. The Dodgers need a sixth solid outfielder or they need to exchange one of the existing crew for a fifth who really can be counted on for 1,400 innings.
(Sources for 2001-2005 actual statistics: Baseball-Reference.com and Baseball Prospectus)
* * *
6-4-2 links to this column by Dave Krieger of the Rocky Mountain News in which DePodesta is discussed by Colorado's Dan O'Dowd, at once an ally of DePodesta's and a skeptic of the youth movement in the major leagues' general mangers offices.
"I think what's happening right now is that there are a lot of people being put into jobs that are really bright people," O'Dowd says. "But the biggest thing that I've learned about this job, and all the mistakes and growth that I've had here, is that you can be smart, you can have what you think is going to be a cutting-edge plan, you can surround yourself with a lot of intellectually stimulating people, but I'm telling you, without the ability to lead people, to handle confrontation in a productive way, to learn to deal with the media in a productive way, to learn to manage up and down in a productive way, to learn to handle adversity, which you're faced with on a regular basis, in a productive way, you have absolutely no chance to bring an organization together for a common vision.
"And there's no way at the age and the real-life experience some of these people are at that they can handle either those challenges or the challenges of immediate success, without any perspective on how to deal with it as you move forward. And I think that's a lot of what's happening in our game right now."
Good points - although another good point would be that it would be nice if the older folks in an organization were also team players and had the younger GM's back, instead of trying to undermine him.
O'Dowd is interested in hiring DePodesta in some capacity, according to the article.
ps. my condolences to sam dc and strike4. losing a father is rough. mine is 77 and though he's in good health, i worry.
I never understood Depo's infatuation with Grabowski, and why he remained on the roster as long as he did. Of course, there's always the possibility that Grabowski had nude photos of Depo with his laptop, but that's just an unsubstantiated rumor.
On baseball, today's WashPost chat by Nationals beat writer Barry Svrluga has this sparse report on Kim Ng. Svrluga has been a good reporter all year, but of course it is hard to know what to do with this sort of unsourced and highly informal comment, particularly the last sentence:
Lost Springs, Wy.: What are the chances of Kim Ng becoming the first female GM?
Barry Svrluga: This is a really interesting case going on out in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers have to be given credit for considering Ms. Ng, who has been an assistant there as well as with two other teams. The Dodgers, it seems, are still pursuing John Hart, late of the Texas Rangers. But Ng's interview seems to indicate that her candidacy is legitimate. We might know by the end of the week.
The chat -- at www.washingtonpost.com -- also has a question about DePodesta or Epstein being brought to DC by new Nationals ownership, and does note that DePodesta grew up here (in Alexandria, VA).
[4] well the problem is that the guys who exceeded expectations didn't play nearly enough. it looks like the big thing was that jason repko played 500 too many innings.
Yes, not only did trading Roberts mean keeping and using Grabowski instead, but it seemed to me that Depo didn't get equal value in return for Roberts. That sentiment was strengthened when I saw what the Padres gave up to get Roberts from the Red Sox (i.e. a few players and a few million bucks, if I remember correctly. That was clearly more than the Dodgers got for Roberts).
channeling Steve . . .
Yes, he did. He got Werth into the lineup. This is the fruits of having a dysfunctional manager, and I submit respectfully, one of the reasons to FJT.
I either don't follow your logic, or don't agree with it. "Getting Werth into the lineup" could have happened regardless of what Depo got in return for Roberts. I don't see how getting Werth into the lineup should be thought of as "something Depo got in return for Roberts."
No, it couldn't, because as long as Roberts was on the roster, Tracy was going to play him. The evidence on this point is overwhelming.
You missed my point, but I won't belabor it.
Nobody I know of likes O'Dowd... fortunately for O'Dowd, the only ones that seem to like him are Charlie and Dick Monfort.
I'm torn between wanting the rockies to do better than the other teams in the NL West besides the dodgers and being able to get really good seats when the Dodgers come to town for next to nothing.
"Doc, we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas."
If you have three healthy, talented players, you need three guys. If you have three unhealthy, talented players, you need more guys.
Believe me, I didn't forget about Edwards, Valentin or anyone.
Maybe he didn't make the effort to build a stack of "twenty offers". Maybe he just took the first one that came along without looking for a better deal.
No, that doesn't sound like Depo. What kind of person would make roster decisions just to spite another person in your organization that you don't see eye to eye with, even if it was counterproductive to the success of the ballclub? I mean, who would do something like that?
"Message from TheoBosoxGM", DePodesta clicked on it and replied.
Epstein probably used a very apropos smiley as well.
Concession granted.
Regarding Roberts' worth, I might argue that the Red Sox-Padre deal indicates that Depo didn't get enough in return for Roberts, while you might argue that the Padres gave up too much.
The Cy Young award seems to have morphed into Most Valuable Pitcher. The Angels and Yanks could not have won their divisions without Colon and Rivera. Santana's flashy numbers didn't make a difference on a non-contending team. For Santana to overcome the Twins' lousy year, he would've had to be even better--Steve Carlton good.
all you can do is make an estimate based on what one could reasonably expect. nobody expects EVERYTHING to go wrong, and no plan can afford the redundancies required of planning for every contingency.
You can only expect so much from the voters.
The Padres trade, I think, actually is evidence of your point. With the way baseball thinks, it is reasonable to believe that there was some idiot GM out there who would have given up the farm for Roberts. In fact, I think I see the forest now. It's not the relative merits of the Roberts trade; it's what DePodesta could have rooked some poor bastard for.
Interesting take.
from aaron gleeman, this is what the twins' offense was like this year:
(rankings out of 14 AL teams)
RS AVG OBP SLG HR BB
14 13 10 13 12 7
steve carlton, bob gibson, pedro martinez circa 2000... none of those guys individually could have carried the twins to the playoffs. the fact that santana went 16-7 ANYWAY is pretty damn remarkable.
The Red Sox didn't keep Payton around for too long, either, so it wasn't like they robbed the Padres of anything valuable. They could afford to take on a bad ontract like Payton's.
I agree with those critics who suggested that an outfield that was mainly Drew, Bradley, Werth and Ledee was a man short. Where I disagree with some DePo critics is how easy it would have been to find that extra man (i.e. Finley was not the answer) - and perhaps more importantly, that I think Drew was part of the solution, not part of the problem.
If Roberts was indeed dealt so that Tracy wouldn't be tempted, I wish Depo had done the same thing with Phillips, Saenz, etc. when it came to the 1B situation this season. Someone could have used a "clutch" hitting catcher like Phillips and Mike Rose could have backed up Navarro for the 5 or 6 games he ended up not catching the rest of the year.
With everything that was going on 7/30 and 7/31, I just don't think finding the "best deal" for Roberts was a priority, taking him away from Jimbo was. What did it ultimately cost the Dodgers to not find a better deal? 2 marginal prospects instead of one?
Citing the Red Sox trade of Roberts as rationale for the idea that the Dodgers could have got more for Roberts is also inherently faulty. The diving force behind the Payton-Roberts trade was SD getting rid of Payton's salary. Roberts salary somewhat offsetting Payton's was more of a driving force than Roberts's inherent value. Ramon vasquez was subsequently traded for Alex Cora and Dave Pauley is nothing of note. SD also sent cash along to pay some of Payton's salary. The package for Roberts was not an indicator or a "better deal" or Roberts's value...it was a salary dump.
A friend of mine who covers MLB for MLB.com told me that it is widely felt that Roberts will never play more than 110 games because of his hanstring issues and any team that expects more out of him than that is cutting their own throat. A 34-year old player with cranky hamstrings who relies primarily on speed isn't something you need littering your roster...
Unless you know for sure he would be used as a 5th OF over a lesser talent, which brings us full circle to Grabowski. The problem with Grabowski is that he's only good when he gets regular playing time. Since he stinks in the limited time he does get, he's never going to get a full-time shot unless he stumbles into a situation where all the other OF's on the roster are injured or just as bad as he is (KC, Colorado, etc.). Given enough plate appearances, I think Grabowski could perform at about the league average. I'm not a fan of Grabs by any means and don't support him being on the roster, but given a full-time gig (which he hasn't earned), he would be alright.
In so many ways it was the Malone prospect hole that doomed this season. It was like you and your wife coming home from a long day at work and finding out that you both had forgotten to buy groceries. Not one Dodger AAA prospect was really ready to step up (excepting Navarro, who DePo had to trade for). If you're DePo, and you're counting on Drew (injury history), Bradley (injury history), Werth (injured) and Ledee (injury history) to keep you from having to reach down to Repko, Grabowski, Edwards, or Ross to fill out your outfield, you are relying way too much on luck.
As for Grabs, aren't the rumors that Lasorda thinks he has great upside? I can't imagine why Depo wouldn't have sent Grabs packing unless his hands were tied.
See #3 above.
DODGERS 12TH: Scioscia walked; Allen threw a wild pitch
[Scioscia to second]; Allen threw a wild pitch [Scioscia to
third]; Stubbs was walked intentionally; Bailor was walked
intentionally [Stubbs to second]; VAIL BATTED FOR HOWELL; LAHTI
REPLACED ALLEN (PITCHING); Vail singled [Scioscia scored, Stubbs
to third, Bailor to second]; 1 R, 1 H, 0 E, 3 LOB. Cardinals 2,
Dodgers 3.
Dodger Prospects:
1. Tony Abreu - saw him play 2 games at 2nd and one game at SS. The game at SS he made the play of the game going deep in the hole and throwing out the runner with a strong throw. Was surprised he had such a strong arm considering that 2nd is his normal position. A scout told me that he had the arm for SS and could make a nifty utility player. The lack of taking a walk could hold him back from being more then a utility player. Very fast and smooth in the infield. His bat was not impressive but another scout said he has shown nice power during batting practice.
2. Andy LaRoche - saw him play 2 games at 3b. Very unimpressive in the the 1st inning that I saw him. Hit a groundball to SS and trotted to 1st ala Eric Karros. 1st ball hit to him in the infield he threw 5 feet over the 1st basemans head. This is the end of the AFL and all the players were talking about going home so the concentration level and fatigue factor could be playing a big part at this point. Dodger fans may need to bring down the expectations for LaRoche. No one seemed to think he'd be an ELITE 3b but some thought he could be a good 3b with 25-30 home run power. Everyone said that Marte was the better prospect.
3. James Loney- saw him play 1 game. He started in RF and then moved to 1st later in the game. I don't know if his start in RF was something the Dodgers wanted or it was a way to get Bangston to play 1st base. He caught easy fly balls but was unable to run down one ball that landed about 3 feet fair down the line. As expected he showed a good arm since he was a highly celebrated high school pitcher but I didn't see a great arm. He moved to 1st later in the game and in one inning dove for a ground ball and had it bounce off his glove. He came into that game in a hot streak but failed to hit the ball hard in any of his 4 appearances. One scout told me that his bat speed may not be upto snuff for a successfull Major League 1st baseman.
4. Matt Kemp - easily the most impressive of the Dodger prospects during the games I saw. That is not to say he's a better prospect then LaRoche. He is a big man. Not Dave Parker big but still a big man. He's got the big butt, big legs. He played RF and not CF and most scouts said his future is in RF not CF. His swing is ugly but when he makes contact the ball has life. Hit a bases loaded triple 410 feet off the CF wall in one game and then a long LF home run in the last game. Has good speed at this point but with his size I can't imagine him keeping that speed as he matures. Showed a good arm. Plate discipline is his achilles heel at this point. He was young for the league. He evidently has only been playing baseball a short time and was a basketballer in high school. Since he's only 20 that gives hope that he still has to time to work on his swing and plate discipline.
5. Eric Hill - saw him pitch the 1st game I went to. He was very effective for 5 innings.
Logan White Info
Logan White attended that last game I went to and was talking to Jim Callis from BA and a Toronto scout. I later learned the trio spent the night talking until 2:00 am. As expected they talked alot about Dodger prospects and how he goes about his job. Since the time he was an area scout he keeps a file on every player he ever scouted so that he can look and see if he was right or wrong on what he expected that player to accomplish. He is very stats oriented and pointed out many sabermetric numbers during his talk to support his contention that James Loney will be successfull at the Major League level. He thinks Matt Kemp will become a star. This is notethworthy because while I was impressed with Kemp one scout told me that he felt Kemp would merely become a starting outfielder on a bad team or a 4th outfielder on a good team. Sounds like he was talking about Craig Monroe to me. All of this information came from either Callis or the scout but I was not a fly on the wall and did not participate in the conversation so you can't ask me anthing else because I don't know.
Jim Callis considers Logan White to be one of the top people in his field.
I guess to be fair to Vishal's comment about hindsight, I didn't forsee this problem back in April. I was down on Ledee, but I actually thought Werth would be a 150-game, .280-EQAing outfielder. Maybe DePo thought the same thing.
I wish Depo would do a tell-all interview so we can hear some of the good dirt. Of course we will probably have to wait until after Depo gets his next job, the McCourts go broke and sell the club, and/or Lasorda goes to meet the great Giant in the underworld.
Yeah, I don't expect Depo to ever spill the beans. I don't think we'll ever know all that went on behind the scenes, and I don't think McCourt will ever reveal why Depo was fired.
1)he's getting paid by the McCourts
2)he's working in baseball
Wait until he retires. Around 2045 I guess. I'll be 80 then.
Regarding Dodger prospects and our expectations of their future success, as far as I'm concerned they're all Billy Ashleys until they prove otherwise.
I'd rather be pleasantly surprised by players who exceed my expectations than unpleasantly disappointed by players who fall short.
I prefer "Delino until proven Pedro"
That was my mother's philosophy toward life in general.
She was a rather pessimistic type.
It's my strategy for "dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers and baseball."
I don't know why Ng would want the GM job with the Dodgers. I mean (in a very general way) what's the difference between her position and Epstein's position? If it makes sense for Epstein to wait, why wouldn't make sense to wait for her... unless she feels that she has some edge over the (them Crazy) McCourts in the almost certain political machinations that would occur if she gets the job. If she's has good as has been established, it's not like she won't find another job.
I'm glad she is, by appearances, in the running.
That always worries me. The Dodgers have been burned too many times.
Nah - Valentin would never hit enough to justify an outfield spot. He was an emergency outfielder at best.
DePo was unluckier on the infield - a rotation of Choi, Kent, Izturis, Perez and Saenz, with Valentin in the Ledee role and Robles helping later on, was a decent plan, and one that cost only about what, $16 million or so?
Yes. I never claimed my official position was rational...:)
scenario A: perez at 3rd full time and valentin covering for a 2nd injured starting OF (ledee being the first reserve),
or scenario B: keep the valentin/perez platoon in place at 3rd and use one of repko/grabowski/edwards in the OF
you choose B?
this is assuming izturis is still healthy.
Again: I'm not claiming to be rational. Keep in mind that my expectations and predictions are completely irrelevant to anyone other than myself. If I were a GM (or even a fantasy league manager), then clearly I would have to be more "coherent" in my thinking and choose either to keep or trade prospects. As it is, I am only a fan who doesn't get paid enough to make that choice.
Henry Rodriguez.
John Wetteland.
Who else? Of course, many other teams have laundry lists of prospects that made good elsewhere, but it isn't as fun to think that way.
Hindsight being what it is, it seems like taking the Toronto job would have been best for him. Ricciardi has been given alot more rope.
I had a chip surgically removed from my shoulder, and no longer feel compelled to defend myself or convert others.
Valentin himself was injured all year, so it's hard to pencil him in anywhere.
and the point of the scenarios was that when you're planning at the beginning of the year, there are only a certain number of simultaneous injuries that you can really account for if they happen. maybe you personally don't like valentin in the OF, but it was another option anyway, until he too got injured.
Not to drive everyone bonkers, but Tom Verducci still calls Bowden "a strong contender for the Los Angeles job."
Starters: Drew, Bradley, Werth
Reserves: Ledee, Grabowski, Repko, Valentin
Minors; Edwards, Ross, Chen, etc.
I guess my point is that Valentin was offensively a questionable choice for the infield, but at least he played a more important position there. If your outfield plan includes Valentin playing there on anything besides an emergency basis, you need a better plan. That's why I don't find a debate between him and Grabowski/Repko/that ilk relevant.
I've said this before, and I don't know that it's true, but I'm disappointed that no one besides me ever raised the issue that Valentin might have been a character/chemistry signing. Valentin is very bright (owns a franchise in winter ball, if I'm not mistaken), a clubhouse cheerleader type (not like Lima, but the next level down), and his best playing days were behind him. Everyone was trying to understand why DePodesta signed him, but no one seemed to consider that DePo was taking a chance on a guy who was good for the clubhouse, could mentor the young infielders and might chip in with an occasional walk or HR. Is that so implausible?
That's easier to do when (a) you're dealing with a team that's not exactly burning up the division, and (b) the currency you get from your customers in is appreciating relative to the currency you pay your players in...
http://tinyurl.com/azu5a
Bowden has now said on TV that he is going to interview for the Boston job. And I assume he would rather have that job than the Dodgers job.
John Henry is a GM-stealing man!
I think that was part of it. A good person to mentor Perez as well. I really think he expected a Perez/Valentin combo all season at third. Valentin perhaps could play solid defense with some pop, while Perez gets a good number of bats and is given time to improve defensively at the position instead of being rushed to play everyday. Valentin was obviously seen as a clubhouse leader in other clubs and a good guy so I think that did play a part. Plus Valetin had been on a winning team before so that experience can be valuable.
That sounds implausible because Depo's supporters have been so adament about the irrelevancy of intangibles such as clubhouse chemistry, character, leadership, etc.
I do not think it is dumb to have them on the team I think it is dumb to continue to play them if they are not performing. If a player has those qualities but is not an everyday player then restrict them to occasional play and pinch hitting duties.
Remember, the Dodgers had reached agreement with free agent outfielder Vladimir Guerrero two years ago, only to have McCourt decide he didn't want him
But is it "dumb" to acquire them because they have those qualities?
But I guess you could argue that he would have kept Cora as a backup if what I laid out there regarding Valentin had been his motivation.
You made need them on the team. Say your team is full of offensive firepower but is young; I would say it is a smart move to hire a veteran on the team just to give the players some guidance. You do not need to necessarily play the guy but the players can listen and relate to them. The A's often like to hvae a veteran or two on the team who seemingly fits that mold.
Either way, I think Depo saw Valentin's "30-HR power" as a means of helping to replace Beltre's production. I'd be surprised if Valentin's signing had anything to do with intangibles. If it had, you'd think Depo would have made a point to communicate that to the media in an effort to address some of his critics and throw a bone to fans who value intangibles.
93 I don't think it's fair to say that Depo's supporters are adamant that the traits you list are irrelevant. For one, I don't think all of DePodesta's supporters are of one mind. For two, I think that people are more likely to question how to predict and value traits like leadership and character than they are to simply assert that those traits are irrelevant. For three, in my opinion, it is pretty different to say that a player is a smart, experienced veteran who can mentor a younger player and set a good tone/example in the clubhouse than it is to say that someone is a gamer with heart. The "intangibles" in the first example are actually pretty tangible and relate pretty directly to the goal they are supposed to achieve (mentoring the younger player, creating a healthy clubhouse). The intangibles in the second are much more subjective, and in my opinion don't relate as directly to the goal they are supposed to achieve (performing better on the field).
When I was writing my response I was thinking hey this seems to fit a mold of coach or manager more, but perhaps younger players can relate to their teammates more than their coach. The A's have had vets around since their rebirth such as Ron Gant, Randy Velarde, Mark McClemore, etc. These guys had some value but I think veteran leadership was also a reason they were on the team. Robin Ventura is a good example of this to me. He had the veteran leadership abilities but he was a valuable pinch hitter and could play occasionally or replace someone for defensive reasons. I think having a player like that on the roster (especially in the NL) can be valuable.
I'm not sure he did this at the time of the signing, but when he was interviewed on KPCC a few months ago, he did in fact say that one of his motivations for signing Valentin was that he was a great guy to have in the clubhouse, a leader, etc. Maybe he was making it up, saying it just because he thought it would help his image. But, I tend to see no reason not to give him the benefit of the doubt and I assume that he did appreciate these qualities in Valentin.
Otherwise known as the Vlad Effect
82
I thought I made it clear that I didn't talk to Logan White. All the information I have from the conversation I mentioned came via the Toronto scout or Jim Callis who were giving a presentation at the conference I attended.
I'm not sure why he is not being considered for the GM job if Kim NG is. I would be much more comfortable with him as GM then with Kim.
Is it fair to draw any parallels between the Terrell Owens situation in the NFL and the Milton Bradley situation?
Is the situation with Owens more that he just can't get along with his teammates (sort of like Alex Johnson except he's better) and Bradley had problem with one teammate, but also seems to have issues off the field?
Which player is considered a greater detriment (or credit) to his team?
Bradley also, to my knowledge has ever said anything negative about a teamate. Now of course this does not include Kent. What Bradley was saying about Kent, I could not disgaree with (the leader part, not the racist part, Kent does not know how to talk to anyone, color does not enter the picture, at least IMO).
Sheffield reminds me more of Owens. The things he said about Karros, Green, Driefort etc. Like it's only about the Benjamins for them.
Of course, Jim Tracy pretty much got away with saying stuff like that and he was considered a martyr by the press.
i think its a pretty neat little segment, does anyone know if they are doing this for all the teams? tomorrow, phillips be pretending to be the astros gm and will have a press conference thingie.
One relatively unique feature of the Bradley situation was that he was acquired by a team that had a player on it with whom Bradley had had a previous on-field altercation. And, that player was among the most popular on the team at the time.
Hmmm...I don't think we're talking about the same player...
But what is going to be the one thing that tips the scales in favor or against MB? The 911 calls? The blowup with Kent? Fear that Bradley is going to throw a bottle at a seat again?
The only thing that is clear in the whole MB situation is that nothing is clear.
With Owens I think that his fight with a team official is a bigger deal than any of his public statements.
http://www.yard-work.org/?cat=143
117 - With Hugh Douglas, the official team "bad-ass-ador"? Andy Reid has a Tracy-esque fascination with him for some reason...
That was more good info on Dodger prospects that I saw in the L.A. Times all season.
I guess there really is something left for the McCourts to screw up: Logan White and his scouting department. Let's hope they somehow pull out of their nose dive before that happens.
The news, if you will, is this:
One group of people has argued that the Dodger outfield was flawed from the get-go, and that Drew was a bad signing.
Another group has argued that on paper, the Dodgers were fine in the outfield but got unlucky.
My analysis - and I'm not saying I'm alone on this - leads me to think that Drew was a good signing, but the Dodger outfield was still probably in trouble from the start of 2005.
I need a little pick me up.
Or where can I find transcripts of ANY radio broadcasts of dodger games?
I'm scheduled now to cover the epic tilt between Calabasas and Agoura (at Agoura). Calabasas will be looking for its 32nd straight loss.
After watching Calabasas last week, I have no reason to think they won't get that. I think Calabasas has the longest current losing streak in the Southern Section.
Of course, it's supposed to be sunny Friday, but most of the games have been moved to Thursday because of Veterans Day. Stupid Germans. Why didn't they surrender on November 8? I could be home today!
So can I go home now?
So you can resume posting on the Dodger Thoughts board...?
Yeah, I never post from work .... Nope. Never. Wouldn't think of it. Not on my radar. Too ethical.
I "know" a lot of people who "never" post from work...Some of them "never" post all day long...
Take a look around. Do you see a lot of books?
Or did we miss the Dodger Thoughts complimentary meal that everyone else is getting?
Bob -- I read a book a while back called Island of the Lost Maps that was very depressing about a low-rent map dealer who would go to fine research libraries and slice historic maps out of landmark atlases. Then I just recently read an article in [something, New Yorker?] about another guy -- a well respected map dealer -- who was doing the same thing.
It really bummed me out. I hope your employer, and probably more so the LA Universities, have good security.
really though, i hope bob wins humbugardy. what's the score, anyway?
Besides, at the point where I said (yesterday) that Kim Ng should turn down McCourt's offer, I realized that maybe my relationship with the team has reached a crisis. I just don't know if I can tolerate the McCourts. I'd like to think with Spring's arrival, I'll just forgive and forget and resume rooting for the team.
But the fact that it's even in doubt has left me a little bit speechless. Should Milton Bradley stay? I really don't care. It might be better for him if he didn't. Should Guzman continue to play shortstop? What's better for him? Could be the best thing to happen to him would be to get on Tommy Lasorda's bad side for some unexplainable reason and get traded to Boston for some crappy pitcher that we'll DFA in three months. Matt Kemp? The Angels could use him. Maybe we can get Darin Erstad for him. Tommy'd love that guy.
See? I'm not sure I should be posting right now, unless you want to talk about a different topic.
Does that cheer you up?
My relationship with the team reached a similar crisis at some point in the 90s, and I've been relatively indifferent toward the team ever since. The Dodgers will always be my "favorite" team, but my emotional attachment was severed and has not become reattached.
I'm kinda surprised this hasn't happened to more Dodger fans. Maybe it has and I'm just not aware of it.
Well, Finley's grand slam was kinda fun, but I "knew" they wouldn't get past the Cardinals anyway so it was an empty celebration. I'm one of those fans who thinks of the Dodgers as one of the foremost franchises in the league, who "shouldn't" be happy with merely winning division titles. Giant fans can cheer division titles and homerun records; Dodger fans should have higher standards.
But, I'm realizing that the Dodgers' place in the league hierarchy might be changing, and not for the better. Maybe I SHOULD be happy with just making the playoffs once in a while.
www.presstelegram.com/dodgers/ci_3192935
"Customers surveyed: The Dodgers are surveying randomly selected ticket buyers in which some of those telephoned are being asked if they can identify the owner of the team and, if so, what their perception of McCourt is.
While that would seem in keeping with the obsessive nature with which McCourt and his wife, team president Jamie McCourt, monitor public perceptions of them, a team spokesperson said Monday that it is part of a list of 60 questions, of which only a handful are chosen for each call.
"There is a difference between corporate ownership and family ownership," said Camille Johnston, the Dodgers vice president for communications. "Our goal is to determine how many of our customers know that we're a family-owned organization." "
slackfarmer - Are the attendance figures you use the (1) number of tickets sold, or (2) the number of people who actually show up?
That seemed to make sense, but your math is about six levels ahead of mine. But it sounded good!
I would think over variables such as weather, quality of giveaways, economic conditions of the area, all play a part in attendance.
I would be stunned if attendanace dropped below 3 million in a full season unless they have Sarin Gas Night.
They surveyed me.
"Most unfavorable"
That was only one part. A lot of the questions were about how many games I was planning to attend, what would get me to go on certain days, which starting times are better. Those questions made a lot more sense.
I didn't get a chance to comment on the seats. I liked the position of where my seats in the Blue section were. But those were literally bad seats. They were horribly uncomfortable.
Bob, do hawks really wait for rats to die? I thought they just swooped in there and nabbed them.
I have this image now of Andre Dawson waiting for the ball to stop rolling before he picks it up.
Regarding the "obsessive nature with which McCourt and his wife, team president Jamie McCourt, monitor public perceptions of them", since when did public opinion become so important to them? Why did they allow Depo to trade all of the "favorite" Dodgers (e.g. Lo Duca, Roberts, Green, etc.) if they were so concerned about how fans would react? And given that they allowed Depo to make those moves without stopping him, why do they now hold Depo responsible?
I suppose you're right. That was the best metaphor I could come up with. The guy is more like a hawk than a vulture.
But if anyone needs to see a harcopy edition of a Sanborn Fire Insurance Atlas, I can hook you up.
The very nice woman asked for Bob so I assumed she was a friend of mine.
She wasn't, but it was interesting.
It's tough to hang-up on very nice women who know your first name.
Camille, this matters why? Can you identify even one person who is more likely to buy a ticket or a piece of Dodger merchandise because of "family ownership"?
God, the stupid things PR people talk their clients/bosses into spending money finding out.
Also: Doesn't it depends on the family? Not all families are equal. Are we talking about the Corleone family? The Huxtable family?
I gave the McCourt family the benefit of the doubt for two years. As a family, they stink. I would not want them as neighbors, and if I had a daughter, I would not want her to marry into them. Camille, does that help?
I don't know if that helped Camille or not, but I (for one) enjoyed it.
What did the "guy whose wife left him for a cartographer" do to get locked up?
He shot a man in Reno just because he didn't like Jermaine Dye.
Yeah. I was going to respond with
What you said
My head
(PS: I did watch Johnny Carson in the late 80s)
I wanted to note two things with you.
(and apologies if anyone already said this--I was too lazy to read all the prior comments before dumping in my two cents)
First, is it just me, or have your posts become more and more DePo supportive over time? Perhaps you are feeling a reaction to the increasingly negative mainstream portrait of him over time and compensating. Or maybe you genuinely have started to feel differently. Or maybe this is all in my imagination. Anyway, it was something I have noticed and wondered about.
Second, perhaps relatedly, have you become more sabermetric in your statistics use? Have you dumped OPS for EqAv? I noticed your exclusive use of EqAv in your excellent comment on the Dodger outfield.
Anyway, my sense of your more favorable view of DePo and the interesting comments by O'Dowd only confirm my desire to learn more facts. What is the real story of his firing? Did he really have all these leadership problems like people are saying? Or was he just doomed to failure in the face of people determined not to let him succeed? But my hat is off to you for your (if this does not sound snotty) increasingly perceptive writing. Thanks.
That didn't help.
And there was a mild criticism of the Roberts trade.
And 183 and 184 are correct - I actually was sensitive to the fact that I was pointing out a possible DePodesta flaw.
As far as your last paragraph, it's probably safe to say that if DePo went along with what became the current Dodger executive groupthink in October, he'd probably still be there.
They were more than likely ecstatic after winning the division, but quickly soured after the disastrous 2005 season. They were willing to take the PR hit last year while the team was winning, but once the tables turned and people were STILL talking about their PR-damaging LoDuca trade they figured a change was needed to help clean the slate.
I also like the quote in there from Jean Afterman about being a woman assistant GM... " I have to drop a profanity as soon as I come in there. I probably have a worse mouth than anybody else in my department."
Los Angeles 6
Chicago White Sox 8
Player Name AB H 1B 2B 3B HR BB OPS
Antonio Perez 5 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1.
HeeSeop Choi 5 - 2 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 1.6
Milton Bradley 5 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .4
Jeff Kent 3 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - .5
JD Drew 4 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .
Jose Cruz 3 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1.75
Dioner Navarro 4 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .5
Oscar Robles 4 - 2 - 2 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1.
Pitcher 4 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .5
Player Name AB H 1B 2B 3B HR BB OPS
Scott Podsednik 4 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .5
Tadahito Iguchi 4 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .75
Jermaine Dye 4 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 1.25
Paul Konerko 4 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .5
Aaron Rowand 4 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .5
AJ Pierzinski 4 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .
Joe Crede 3 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 2.3333
Juan Uribe 2 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 2.3333
Pitcher 3 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - .
(Did Larry Beinfest pull himself out and I missed it?)
If Ng does get the job, will she be kept on a tight leash like I believe DePodesta was? Or will her status as the front office equivalent of Jackie Robinson give her a measure of independence and leeway that no male GM could get from these McCourt people? I'm sure if Paul had been Pauline DePodesta, McCourt wouldn't have dared fire her after just 20 months.
If Ng comes in with a bulletproof jacket, she'd probably be the only GM who could possibly succeed in that dysfunctional organization now running our team.
Then, I just got done reading Tim Brown's latest column and saw that Jim Fergosi is interested in the Dodger job.
I've been to several games where Fergosi literally was sitting right in front of me or behind me depending on where they gave him and the rest of his scouting team tickets. He told me even back then he wished he was affliated with the Dodgers, even back when he was a player.
197 For the same reason the Mets needed Mo Vaughn.
Newsday also reports the Padres and Rangers have discussed a Soriano/Nix for Eaton/Loretta swap. Considering Soriano's stats away from Arlington (.224/.265/.374) last season, and he'd be going to Petco, I'm really hoping this gets done. It also further destroys anything behind Peavy in the rotation
I'm taking the day off and heading to the track!
Then when Frank fires her in a year or two, he will claim he is all about equality because he fired her just like all the men before her.
Ironically, her style will probably be a combo of Depo and Evans, something Plaschke and many mainstream fans will endorse.
Boy, I wish one of those survey people would call me.
Trading Loretta seems on par with the trading LoDuca from a "heart and soul" standpoint (the obvious difference is that Loretta is productive). For the record, "heart and soul" guys that can actually hit are my favorite kind of "heart and soul" players.
Cool, I knew Depo was still running things:)
Here's hoping Frank goes for Ng and Hershiser, both on some merits and because they would not be very expensive, thus theoretically free up money for the few options realistically available in the market this winter.
That idea polled really, really well.
Ratt, your post-Depo era posts are great. I read them and think, that's how I feel only he said it much better and much funnier. There is a Buck Henry quality to them.
But remember, it's MY mind, so something might be screwy.
He's right. It is.
I hope that's not what we're in for going forward.
He also had Derek Thompson going somewhere in that trade...didn't he have TJ surgery this year?
Torii Hunter knows how to win. Look at how often the Twins went to the playoffs with him on the squad.
He's hard nosed. Ask that catcher on the White Sox who got smushed by him.
And he can rob Barry Bonds of home runs!
What's not to love?
Or are you asking about actual abilities?
(I'm not suggesting a straight-up trade. I'm sure the Yanks would want more than just MB for Matsui.)
as a dodger fan, i fully endorse that move. soriano is trash away from arlington and move him to petco!?!?! hes going to be sooo badddd. anyways, kevin towers... do the trade.
Miller Park ranked 19th with 0.945. Doesn't seem like a huge difference given that the biggest park factor for doubles belonged to McAfee (A's) at 1.605.
Jim Tracy received no votes.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/gold_glove_al.shtml#multi
Guillen got 17 first place votes. Wedge had 6. Torre had 4 and Macha received 1.
Might as well go after Bernie Williams then.
now, i'm not saying torii's a BAD outfielder, but looking at some stats, i'm more inclined to think that torii is probably a lot closer to average defensively than his reputation would lead you to believe.
Most Scrappiest Player
Most Heart and Soul
Guttiest Pitcher
Best Clubhouse Guy
Voters for these awards would be instructed to rely solely on their subjective judgements. If voters cite even one stat, their vote is disqualified.
Jacque Jones (951)
Juan Encarnacion (946)
Preston Wilson (946)
He's getting how much?
Where's the rain? I am squinting at the sunshine pouring into my office in Whittier.
Since then, he's had rate2's of: 87/97/100/102
Did something happen to him between 01 and 02?
"Lawrence, who logged 195 2/3 innings in 2005, is coming off his worst season, but the Nationals believe his pitching should improve at RFK Stadium, which is larger than San Diego's PETCO Park."
So, Molokai (108), is RFK likely to be an improvement over PETCO?
253 Does it really matter if Lawrence improves? Lawrence was an utter steal.
2005 Park Indices
If your a RH power hitter your screwed in Petco.
With 100 being neutral
Petco
Runs 77 - Last
LHB - AVG - 88 - Last
LHB - HR - 90 - 11th, PacBell is the worse
RHB - AVG - 93 - 15th, RFK last
RHB - HR - 51 - Last place, next closest is Florid at 63.
RFK
Runs 87
LHB - AVG - 92
LHB - HR - 99
RHB - AVG - 86
RHB - HR - 76
Dodger Stadium
RFK
Runs 93
LHB - AVG - 95
LHB - HR - 85
RHB - AVG - 97
RHB - HR - 93
Curious
Doubles 103
Triples 102
3 year average for DS for doubles is 97 and triples is 71. The trend is for higher doubles and triples after the reconfiguration. May just be a one year anomoly only time will tell.
i still don't want him anywhere near the dodgers though.
unless he wants to trade for a jason.
UCLA and USC play each other in basketball this season on January 18 and then not again until ... January 19. Strange, huh?
UCLA then hosts No. 15 West Virginia on January 21.
Of course, you really want to know when Stanford comes to town. It's early this year: December 29.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teamsched?teamId=26
They have four games scheduled.
"star prospect joel guzman could end up as part of an offseason trade for a big bat"
"Prying Adrian Beltre away from Seattle and back into a Dodgers uniform this winter could be a solution to improving the offense."
i don't believe what i just read.
"Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Aubrey Huff and Adrian Beltre" were not the names I would be expecting though.
Also,
"This week's meetings probably will not clarify the Dodgers' situation at first base, where the Hee-Seop Choi experiment could end with the departure of his biggest supporter, former general manager Paul DePodesta..."
Choi's gonna have a breakout season. I know it.
if JtD goes, I go!
In the Pac-10, all the teams play home-and-home in basketball.
Baseball Analysts' take on Konerko:
"Smart teams don't overpay for 1B/DH, especially those who will be 30 years old on Opening Day. Konerko already has the skill-set of an older player and one has to wonder how well he will age."
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