Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Hiring Ned Colletti as general manager for the Dodgers is not a decision that makes sense to me, but I'm going to give Colletti the chance that many did not give Paul DePodesta.
As the McCourts prepared to buy the Dodgers two years ago, there were much more serious warning flags than those waving around Colletti. On paper, the choice does not seem particularly inspired. On paper, I don't see what Colletti offered that Kim Ng does not.
But Colletti is not Brian Sabean. Colletti is not the Giants. Colletti is Colletti.
I'm going to tell Colletti what I told McCourt as he bought the team. Be smart. Be good.
I hope it is not the same as the old and no farm system Giants.
Maybe Colletti doesn't use a computer though.
And for those complaining about vets, the Giants do plan on keeping Lowry and Cain in the rotation, so they don't hate every prospect
Look at the Giants contracts. Those were Colletti's job. If you dislike them, then you dislike Colletti. (his negotiations tend to lead to backloaded contracts, that have options on them, not necessarily a bad thing)
His comments in BP were not to comforting.
I'll give him a chance, but judging by his track record i dont think he warranted an interview to be honest with you.
In other news, the Nats no longer have interest in Bradley. Instead, they've chosen to pursue another ex-Dodger (we all know Bradley's an ex now)--Juan Encarnacion
Also, it's hard to think about a guy named Ned and not have Ned Flanders and the Ned from Groundhog Day stuck in my head.
And that brings me down.
We'll see....
He moved to the Giants in 1995 and became assistant GM in 1997, the year the team began a run of successful seasons that ended with last season's disappointing third-place finish.
"There were all sorts of messes in San Francisco, and not all of them became public," said an agent who has had several clients play for the Giants. "Ned dealt with all of them."
*
DePo has adversity and gets fired. Colletti has adversity and gets hired. Go figure.
I'm willing to give him a chance though. No reason to condemn him before he's said a word or made a move. That being said, I'm not exactly optimistic about the whole thing, which is not the norm for me.
Who's to say the McCourts will even be around another 2 years.
And Barry Bonds as the nextg Dodgers' left fielder...?
I disagree with a lot of you guys in that I don't see this great divide between new and old thinking lasting much longer. It's not a death struggle. It's like technology; there are early adapters, and then there are people who wait until all the bugs get worked out. A few stubbornly ignore the benefits of new information, but the Darwinian principles begin to apply to them after awhile.
If you guys have faith in sabremetrics, you should assume Colletti either already gets it, or is in the process of doing so--because he wants to win. And if sabremetrics isn't a sure-fire winning set of principles, what's the fuss about?
I wonder what Ng does now? I hope she doesn't leave us, even though if I were in her shoes, I would.
"But rather than aim for a cheap public-relations splash, the Dodgers hired a good, old-fashioned baseball executive, someone over the age of 30, someone who actually has paid his dues."
There are two glaring problems with this one sentance. First, Rosenthal claims that the Dodgers were smart for avoiding a PR move, but Rosenthal, among others, critisized Depodesta for not being a good PR guy. Secondly, Rosenthal claims that the Dodgers were smart to give the job to someone who "actually paid his dues", colletti started working for the giants in 1994, depodesta's front office career started in 1995. Oddly enough, I didnt know this until know, but Depodesta was actually Clevelands Advance Scout for two years, thats right Depodesta was actually employed as a scout. wow.
any way, here's what Rosenthal said just two weeks ago;
"Better McCourt should stop trying to re-invent the wheel, minimize his risk and hire a proven GM ... DePodesta never ran a department as Billy Beane's assistant with the A's. Never had to persuade others to adopt his vision. Never had to rein in out-of-line employees"
How does Colletti's experience have anything to do with this, and yet he like Colletti's signing. Where can I get a job were my idea's dont even have to be coherent from week to week?
Ok, i promise thats the last time i will compare Depo to Colletti, just had to get that out of my system. Oh ya, and Rosenthal is a bigger hack than I thought.
Where can I get a job were my idea's dont even have to be coherent from week to week?
Yeah I hated Rosenthal the second I heard him talk.
In that BP interview, Colletti claims, "How the pitcher's numbers were accumulated isn't as important as talent, makeup, how he pitches in certain situations." Why would he be afraid to endorse statistical analysis at BP, he has nothing to loose. That interview has me worried. Im not sure how long Ng and Smith will last before they are either fired or leave.
Just as a note on the whole idiocy of this decision, it seems Colletti was hired for his ability to negotiate contracts. Why not Ng, she has a much better record, AND has experience in player development. McCourt better have a good explanation tomorrow.
McCourt still wants to save money, right?
Have you had anything to drink yet?
Hopefully, Colletti has an open mind to the information sabermetrics provides, and will have people on his staff who are able to provide it. He doesn't have to be a sabermetrics wiz to make use of it, and certainly doesn't have to be one to be a successful GM.
However, I don't see why we should "assume Colletti either already gets it, or is in the process of doing so--because he wants to win." Doesn't everyone in baseball want to win? Does that mean they all "get it" or will soon "get it"?
Well, that's good. Hopefully if he uses the Giants strategy, then White, Ng, Smith, and Collins can delegate and win 4-1 not to trade Jackson and Billingsley for Tom Glavine
It is unclear whether Colletti plans to retain Ng or vice president of player development Roy Smith, who have been running the Dodger front office since DePodesta was fired.
If it works, I would say yes absolutely. You can't keep useful knowledge bottled up forever. Only announcers, ex-ballplayers and idiot scribes like Plaschke think it should be shunned. But they aren't accountable, it's not their job to win ballgames, and besides, what they're criticizing is a caricature of it. I mean, the best Plaschke could do was name-call DePodesta things like "Google Boy." What does that tell you? I seriously doubt Colletti got the job by promising not to use statistics or a computer.
'The Dodgers raided the front office of the archrival San Francisco Giants on Tuesday, hiring Ned Colletti as their general manager.'
I hope Colletti works fast to construct the front office (assuming he does something with it), and to redo the roster for the Rule 5 (he has to work fast for that). Maybe even sign some NRIs. Just something so we can get a (very) general idea of what he will do
Choi is many things. Choi is not other things. But any discussion of him must begin without misrepresenting those facts, or, as during the season, we will never get anywhere.
Yes that Lawler.
Back to the numbers, its this simpile, if you think that Choi isnt worth 500 PA a year (not necessarily Big Papi production), your just not paying attention to decades of baseball research. Im sorry but everywhere else on this planet (save for maybe Saudi Arabia) prides themesevles on being on the "cutting edge" of their field, why is baseball different?
48 ...slow in the field...
Choi was a leauge average defensive first baseman. He had several rough plays that got a lot of ink, but worked hard on his defense. By the end of the season, he seemed quite competent with the leather (see the game @ NY Mets).
...slow on the basepaths...
Pardon me, but who the heck cares if he's slow on the basepaths. David Ortiz manages to get around them just fine...
slow at the plate
He generates good bat speed once he gets his hands going,...
Ignoring the internal inconsistency in your argument...
Choi's been working on his approach for the last couple of months since the end of the season. He's moved forward in the batters box and closed up his stance in order to recognise and reach the outside breaking pitch. I'll refer you to the Choi Cenral blog. He's got a ton of power potential
but he's too inconsistant for my likings
Paging Jim Tracy.... Jim Tracy... Hee Seop Choi on line 1...
Plus he bunts well....
I have been a Dodger fan longer than most. I have no problem with giving Colletti a chance. I must say however that it will be difficult for me to accept Hersheiser if he is named manager. The reports of Lasorda running DePo down to other baseball people ring true. I was not there but from what I know of Lasorda it does not sound out of character to me. Orel own his own I have no problem with; Orel going to dinner with McCourt and Lasorda right before the firing of DePo, I have a problem with. Right now I would rather have Ron Wotus than Orel as manager. I would rather have Royster. And I would like Colletti's first trade to be Lasorda and McCourt for a court jester and owner to be named later.
Stan from Tacoma
That was a good angry tirade.
I seriously doubt Colletti got the job by promising not to use statistics or a computer.
I agree. There is no real reason to think that McCourt has anything against a rigorous use of stats, and at least some reason to think that he understand the value of it.
I'm going to give the guy a chance though. I'm also not going to blame a lack of moves on him - when its Feb 15th and we've signed only a couple middler relievers, I'll blame the McCourts...
Lastly, it seems clear that Colletti was the life preserver in this process - the last thing to which the McCourts could cling after everyone else jumped ship...
I have an idea. Everyone needs to make a list of all the bad things they've done to people, then go around fixing them. Karma.
San Francisco Dodgers of Los Angeles
At the very least, I would hope he would try to get up to speed on the Dodger farm system and our quality young studs. I can't necessarily imagine why Ng would stay (particularly if she's courted by other teams), but she would definitely be an anchor bridging the two GM regimes (sadly, the same position she was in during the Evas/DePo transition).
68 and 53 seem to be on different subjects. My post, 71, was comparing the angry tirade of 66 with the icy jab of 69.
In short... We need threaded comments.
63- Choi is slow in the field. By your throwing out the series you choose to throw out, I guess we can throw out the series where he hit the crap out of the ball. Then he hits 9 homers for the year, 1 more than the slugger Dave Roberts hit while playing half of the games at Petco.
66- Wow...I said nothing racist. I just don't think he's the answer for us. I gave my reasons, you disagree, let's just leave it at that. If I'm wrong, you can rub it in my face. I like the fact that he's a good guy trying to do well and be a good teammate and clubhouse presence. I just think he's subpar and his best years are behind him.
66 Uh??? yeah he is slow in the field. Face it. I'm not dissing the guy I'm telling it how it is. He's slow in the field. He can't get to balls that other guys can, and although they don't generate errors, they don't generate outs.
I usually don't care if a firstbaseman is fast on the paths either, I just brought it up to further illustrate the point that he isn't extremely athletic.
He got lucky a few times, but when he face hard throwing pitchers this year he was late if he could catch up to the ball (majority of the time....just so you don't isolate a one at bat to throw at me). He is slow everywhere except after he starts his swing.
Simply said, I don't feel he's the answer for us at first base. Sorry if I step on some toes, but that's how I feel, and if you don't, there's nothing you can do to convince me otherwise.
Good luck Colletti, may you get a decent chance to prove yourself, but im not holding my breath.
There was no icy jab I agree with what he said. I like to read the occasional angry tirade and today seems like a good day to go on one.
Stan from Tacoma
That is not "throwing out that series." That is considering what actually happened in that series, rather than making stuff up, then petulantly whining that there's "nothing we can do to convince you" otherwise. Lord knows, we wouldn't want to try. You got the first baseman you deserve anyway.
Frank couldn't understand this, "Paul why don't you fire some people every now and again. It's fun, you'll like."
"No Frank, I like the people I have."
"OK then, you're fired."
Flash forward to Colletti's interview. Frank asks, "So what would be your plan to fix the Dodgers?"
"First, I'd fire all of Depo's people."
"Great. You're hired."
Stan from Tacoma
Stan from Tacoma
So... we all have a right to be nervous. Or a right to feel whatever we want to feel. But without knowing much other than the above, and despite the fact that he's a former Giant, I'm willing to try optimism for once.
Until he does some stupid things (like trade too many top prospects for veterans) and my hope is dashed against the rocks like a rickety ship.
That said, I, too, wish McC had just done the right honorable thing and hired Ng.
C
Your argument laid out in three posts:
Choi is slow.
Choi is slow.
I think Choi is slow.
That is not an argument. That is a conclusion and it is self-admittedly based on your preconceived biases. It has neither a beginning, a middle and only tangentially an end. It offends me because it is the perfect example of what "statheads" or "sabers" are almost always falsely accused of -- an unfailing belief in their own correctness. And yet "sabers," who at least attempt to hold themselves to some kind of intellectual rigor, are derided, while you and Plaschke make bald, uncontrovertable assertions, based on nothing but sensory perceptions that would be derided in any setting other than baseball.
In other words, you offend me because you embody that which deserves criticism, but does not receive it.
The French in WWI were helped out by a key late-season acquisition by a shrewd front office. The Central Powers stood pat and tried to win with a veteran group. Sort of like the Mariners in 2002.
Stan from Tacoma
To a lesser extent, the same is true of World War II -- the huge industrial might of the US, once mobilized, essentially doomed the Germans once they couldn't take out the Soviets, leaving them (again) fighting a two-front war with a might of US industry entering the fray.
"Hitler never played "Risk" when he was a kid...! 'Cause, you know, playing "Risk," you could never hold on to Asia. That Asian-Eastern European area, you could never hold it, could you? Seven extra men at the beginning of every go, but you couldn't fucking hold it! Australasia, that was the one! Australasia, all the purple ones! Get everyone on Papua New Guinea and just build up and build up..."
I'm really glad my Broncos are (so far!) having a good season , then I can care less about a lot of this stuff and wait 'til spring training again to really care...
I think Steve already got the KO in the first round. Fight is over, time to move on. vr, Xei
Of course FJT was right on this. Because FJT actually bothered to watch games instead of just mouth platitudes and absurdities.
vr, Xei
"It's not yet a pipeline on par with the California Aqueduct, but the Dodgers have again tapped into the Bay Area for a general manager."
But has he ever looked at a map to see where the California Aqueduct goes?
If the Dodgers were hiring GMs from Sacramento, that would be one thing.
Runs Created = (scrappy plays grass stains) + (3 number of goggles worn)
vr, Xei
Colletti may not pass the test of ideological purity, and his hiring might be giving the press yet another angle to distort sabremetrics, but he seems smart enough to act on good information, and tough and mature enough to face down the idiots who just hired him.
I have not said anything about Choi for the excellent reason I have seen very little of him. I don't see the Dodgers much since I am not in a National League city. However, I really wonder why people are bringing up race when they are defending him. If I make critical comments about Chan Ho Park (a player I have seen and don't much like), am I going to be called a racist?
Stan from Tacoma
(Why someone from SoCal who has only been to Denver twice is a Broncos fan since childhood is a long boring story not worth repeating.)
The NFL? No Thanks. The last memory I have of having the Rams and Raiders were all the blacked out games. vr, Xei
The Soviet Union, 1941-5 = Scott Erickson?
106 - Another history major here, very well-said but it was really only a two front war for less than a year.
Any attempts at statistical analysis would do well to start here: http://www.worldwar-2.net/casualties/world-war-2-casualties-index.htm or http://tinyurl.com/bsd32
One of the casualty #s jumps out at you:
France = appx 500,000
Germany = 6,500,000
Britain = 360,000
Italy = 465,000
Japan = 2,300,000
USA = 400,000
USSR = 21,200,000
Clippers win again
All GMs have to look at non-statistical information to make rational decisions - a player's potential is not always reflected in his past performance (true for both young players and past-their-prime players).
The question is not what importance he attributes to statistics, but what statistics he looks at - e.g., stolen bases or on-base percentage.
I'm looking at Ned with a clean slate. I can't give him credit or blame him for whatever happened while he was the assistant GM. He didn't get to make decisions which is why assistants aspire to become their own person in all walks of life. He's now free to create his own path and match wits against his old master. On the plus side I don't owe anyone drinks this summer. I'm optimistic because we didn't hire a retread like Hart or Bowden. Yes he's not an inspired choice but neither was Ng.
With Colletti, I'm pretty much of the opinion of DodgerThought Nation... "Let's give the guy a chance... but why not give Ng a shot? Why a Giant? Let's hope this guy doesn't screw up the farm system... Neifi Perez??? (Sigh)
"Second, the Logan White factor.
The Dodger scouting director is the star of the organization, having built one of baseball's best low-level minor league systems, with last year's double-A Jacksonville club voted the minors' best.
Look for White to become one of Colletti's top evaluators, moving up perhaps even as assistant general manager, a situation that will work because Colletti will listen.
That's the thing about being 50 instead of 32. You know that you don't know it all. Colletti understands this, and will probably surround himself with smart people who will only make him look better."
if colletti actually does this, i will be VERY IMPRESSED and happy.
2000 $9,416,667
2001 $12,166,667
2002 $13,416,667
2003 $15,666,667
2004 $16,666,667
2000 $10,658,826
2001 $10,300,000
2002 $15,000,000
2003 $15,500,000
2004 $18,000,000
Months after the last Dodger regime traded Paul Lo Duca, Colletti worked out a Giant contract for Mike Matheny.
While the last Dodger regime didn't see the value in Adrian Beltre, Colletti was signing Omar Vizquel.
You mean, surround himself with people...like Logan White? Who was DePodesta surrounded by? Logan White!
Plaschke at his absolute worst.
That said, I have formed no opinion of Ned Colletti. Except that I agree on the Flanders thing, especially with that 'stache.
What really hurts about this is is that for me, today is the culmination of years of Murdoch/McCourt misery. In fact, I think this has been the most painful day of my life as a sports fan. I may only be 19, but it really hurts for me to look at what the Dodger organization has become.
http://firejimbowden.blogspot.com/2005/11/one-more-for-road.html
I'm not sure that I can fault Colletti for doing the leg work on the Matheny or Vizquel contracts. Side note.. Vizquel was a bit better than Izturis this year and wasn't that much more expensive.
Sure, if it came out somewhere that he swayed Sabean to sign the guys, then Dodger fans might have problem. Until I hear something different, I'm going to reserve judgement on the guy.
I think even if we don't agree with the Colletti move, I'm not sure that we should badmouth the guy until he actually does something stupid. If he trades Laroche, Guzman, et al for the rotting corpse of Sammy Sosa (I know Sosa is a free agent, just using it as an example) or something like that, then we can start judging him.
I'm afraid if I judge him before I really even know anything about the dude than I will be just as bad as Plaschke (if not worse, because I know better).
To fire a perfectly good GM and subject the team to days of limbo only to hire a guy who might be OK but probably won't isn't a smart move.
I wasn't happy when I was at my parent's house earlier tonight and Fred Roggin broke the news. I think I said a few curses...
Then I went over to my girlfriend's condo and I promised her a couple of weeks ago that I wouldn't talk about my anger with the Dodgers when she was around. It sort of helped me forget about the Colletti thing and all that good stuff...
My fandom just hopes they lucked into a guy that it is more than meets the eye.
Henceforth, I'll be hoping not that the Dodgers' front office be the smartest in the MLB, but the luckiest. One in thirty shot, right? Who's to say Big Ned hasn't got the magic touch?
Let's hope Ned (oops...I'm calling him by his first name...I guess I am a Ned-backer) was against the oldies station format the Giants have programmed.
I'm holding off falling into a deep depression until I see his managerial hire (or McJester's). I then hold the right to go screaming into the night.
"But the Dodgers aren't as far off as their '05 failure indicates. I didn't like a lot of the moves that ex-GM Paul DePodesta made, but nobody can pass fair judgment on his decisions based on what happened last year, because of the huge volume of injuries the team suffered. More than 1,300 days were lost to the disabled list.
"Imagine the Yankees if they lost Mariano Rivera, Hideki Matsui and Derek Jeter," one talent evaluator said. "That's basically what the situation with (the Dodgers) was." Imagine the Chicago White Sox without Paul Konerko, Juan Uribe and Mark Buehrle."
He then goes on to say this:
"The Dodgers do need to land one major bat -- maybe it'll be someone like Alfonso Soriano -- and a starter, like a Kevin Millwood. And if one or two of the Jacksonville graduates play effectively at the big-league level next year, and the Dodgers get merely solid results from a couple of the key veterans (Drew, perhaps, and Penny), it's very possible that Los Angeles will supplant San Diego as division champion."
http://www.sbsun.com/sports/ci_3221773
So, has it happened yet?
Has Colletti traded Billingsley, Guzman, Laroche, Tiffany and Martin for Mike Matheny and a lump of stale sourdough, been fired by McCourt, and gone running back to his old job in SF with an evil gleam in his eye?
No, not yet you say? Oh, right -- he's probably waiting to be introduced at the press conference first. : )
When Uruguay and Australia get together, you have to expect the unexpected.
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_3220742
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_3220698
http://www.microsoftinternational.com/item/1_0912083115_1_7_2_index.html
He also wrote:
"Cub Fan Mania", Bob Ibach and Ned Colletti, a pictorial of baseball's most dedicated and vocal fans.
"Thanks for Listening", Jack Brickhouse, Jack Rosenberg, Ned Colletti, a history of the Cubs
"Golden Glory: Notre Dame Vs Purdue", Ned Colletti
And Frank will get his 3.2MIL attendance.
Sorry for the pessimism. I had to get the emotional, irrational aspect of this thing out of my system... I want to be like Jon and not jump to conclusions, but I'm just not as good a man.
He was in PR at the time. He was looking to pick up some extra scratch.
I never knew we had fans of Uruguay here. You know, it's not like Uruguay has never won a World Cup before.
As for winning the World Cup, although Uruguay still has the talent it is completely disfunctional thanks to agent Paco Casal, who makes Scott Boras look like a saint and keeps any player that he doesn't represent off the national squad, also for some reason I can't remember back to 1950.
Where's my time machine?
There has been alot of criticism of the Colleti hiring based on the fact that he is "old school." The fact of the matter is that the Giants have been a better team over the past ten years then the Dodgers have. While I am not saying that Colleti will necessarily be a good GM, and I don't have great faith in the McCourts, I think people are going overboard. No offense to DePodesta, but he did tear apart a pennant-winning team, the result being they won 71 games this year. While I don't think it was bad to get rid of Beltre, Green, Finley, Lima, LoDuca, the problem was that DePodesta never adequately replaced them. We basically had no catcher or third basemen in 2005. And, DePodesta got lucky in 2004 when Brazoban and Gararra stepped up to fill the hole created by the departure of Mota. Plus, DePodesta blew up the team as if they were a last place team that needed rebuilding, not a good team that needed retooling. And as far as saving $, I don't really care if our payroll is $100 million or $75 million, as long as we win. All this "Hee Seop Choi would save us so much money" means nothing to me, as the bottom line is only of concern to Frank McCourt, and if he can't handle a $100 million payroll, like he said he could when he bought the team, he is a liar.
I was very concerned that DePodesta was going to hire a two-time loser like Collins to be the manager. People might hate Tracy here, but he did win around 90 games consistenly.
And I don't undertand the almost religious faith here that when the entire Jacksonville team comes up in 2007, a Dodger dynasty will be created. First of all, most prospects don't make it--two years ago, Edwin Jackson, Greg Miller and Joel Hanrahan were the can't miss Dodger prospects. Well, whatever happened to Hanrahan? Miller got hurt, and i am concerned about Jackson because he doesn't strike out people anymore. And even if every prospect from Jacksonville panned out, it would take them a few years of experience to become quality major leaguers, which means you are looking at a winning team in 2009/2010, best case scenario.
I very much enjoy this board, and most of the comments are interesting and provocative, I just don't understand the unquestioning love for DePodesta, and the feeling of dread that comes with the hiring of Colleti.
"Got lucky" or "realized he could replace Mota and use him to get something else they needed?"
I don't think people have a religious devotion to DePo. Only speaking for myself, I'd much rather have people making decisions based on data, rather than gut feel. The Giants may very well have been doing that. As a Baseball Prospectus article pointed out a while back, the Giants seem to have been practicing "Moneyball" of sorts, by getting older players who were undervalued in relation to their performance.
Please love me.
Love,
Frank M.
J.P. Riccardi (Blue Jays), Theo Epstein (Red Sox) have had reasonable success. And certainly the A's are in a class of their own in terms of competing for a division championship every year despite a tiny payroll and player turnover.
Colletti: I'll try to stay neutral until I get a better sense of the guy from some actual transactions... but what does he offer that Ng did not? One comes from the "Dodger tradition" and years of success with the Yankees (which certainly trumps Colletti's more modest successes with the Giants). However, I'm willing to wait and see with Ned... I just don't have much faith in McCourt's decision-making right now.
As for DePo, his "dismantling" of the 2004 division-winner was a success.... Beltre, Finley, Lima, etc all had poor years (well, Beltre's year was mediocre). You could argue that he should've prepared more for injuries, I suppose, but the reality is that the 2005 Dodger team is an enigma -- we'll never know whether DePo's choices would have been successful with a healthy team. And it's also worth pointing out that the mainstream media doesn't seem to hold the Giants' injuries against Colletti for their weaker-than-expected 2005 season.
I think it's fair to fault DePo for trading Lo Duca when he didn't have a solid starting catcher ready to step in (although Ross looked like he might have been the guy, beforehand), and his signing of Valentin really was a huge bust. But other than that, I can't see how he gets anything other than an "incomplete": a lot of the pieces he brought in were showing promise, and with a healthy J.D. Drew, Milton Bradley, and Gagne we probably win the division regardless.
But, most importantly, it just doesn't make sense to fire him: not when you're supposedly trying to bring stability to the team, not when you've brought him in for a 5-year plan and then give him only 20 months, and especially not when you let him start the process of bringing in a manager he's comfortable with then canning him later.
As to your point about Brazoban and Carrara being lucky replacements for Mota, I'd say that DePodesta reasonably foresaw Mota's poor second half and figured his innings would be easily replaced in-house.
As to Choi, I think most of us just think that his low price tag is a bonus. At any price, he's a young power hitter with excellent plate discipline that has been projected for stardom by scouts and sabremetric types alike. Young hitters with excellent strike zone judgement and lots of power usually become very good hitter. See, Ortiz, Bonds, Thome, ManRam, etc.
As to the reliance on Sabr style management - Boston is a second team that has had success with this style. I'd say many teams are using aspects of the style in their roster building. Most of us are just afraid of the type of GM that would totally disdain statistical analysis. There are some of those guys out there still.
Yet ... "character is important."
"Oooh ... He just called out J.D. Drew and Odalis Perez. "(You can't win) if your players can't go 140, 150 games"
unless that player has a penchant for getting on base 6 out of ten times or so...
Wow, he's obviously put a lot of thought into this. Does his strategy include a nine man lineup and the use of a round ball?
Where does this new development leave Orel? I got the impression from a Times article that he hadnt been called by the Dodgers in a week or so.
by the end of the press conference, I found myself kinda liking the guy.
I have no doubt that she'll be interviewed in the next round of GM openings (and there's still the Red Sox and possibly the Nationals--although this one is Theo Epstein's for the taking).
Just wondering, the day Selig "expresses concern over the growing salaries of executives" (how dare anyone but the owners make money), McCourt and Epstein's courtship ends and we end up with Ole Ned. Do we know the terms of the contract, if he's signed for anything less than 4 years, this has no chance of working.
663AB 93R 167H 30HR 88RBI 97BB .252AVG .354OBP .451SLG .801OPS
Since everyone talks about signing Paul Konerko, here are Konerko's stats last year:
575AB 98R 162H 40HR 100RBI 81BB .283AVG .375OBP .534SLG .909OPS
It's hard to compare (other than the percentages) since in the comparison here, Choi has more plate appearances. But taking the liberty to equalize Choi's AB with Konerko's, Choi's stats would be:
575AB 81R 145H 26HR 76RBI 84BB .252AVG .354OBP .451SLG .801OPS
Certainly, Konerko has the better numbers. But when you consider that it'll take about $12million to sign him this year and Choi only costs $400,000, I'll take Choi and use the $11.5million in savings to sign a top pitcher or OF or 3B. Also, I'm using Konerko's stats last year, which was generally his best year. Choi hasn't yet hit his potential yet.
Uh, DePo was signed for 5 and we all saw how well that worked. Given McCourt's penchant for firing I would be surprised if it was longer than 2 years.
Your to cynical but it does suck that Plaschke will like this guy and so will eye.
Orel has no chance of being the manager after what Ned said what he is looking for.
For the past 2 1/2 weeks, Frank McCourt has been running the Dodgers and it's been a frightening thing to behold. That pathetic, asinine press conference. Lasorda pledging to rip out his lungs if his McCourt love were false. The whoring after Plaschke's approval. Veteran baseball executives acting as if the Dodger GM job was a curse. The contemptible, deceitful insistence that GM candidates who turned us down in fact consented to a "mutual decision."
Now, the clouds are parting. The Dodgers have a new front man. He's not Jim Bowden. He's going to have more influence over McCourt than DePo did, and than Ng could have. He's not a junior partner, brilliant but untested. He's a force in his own right, whose credentials say "shut up, twits" to Frank and Jamie.
I didn't see the press conference, but from what you all are saying it sounds like Ng will stay unless she's offered a GM position in Boston, and White will stay. He values the fact that LA has potential superstars in its farm system, but is also aware that he's got a surplus there, and can use it to improve the team now. (I am convinced that DePo would've done the same thing.)
The "corners" comment is not good news for Choi. That's a concern. But at least Choi's replacement won't be Jason Phillips.
It's not a day for elation. Elation would be McCourt selling the team, and this announcement falls well short of that prayed-for result. But I do think it's a day for relief.
I guess my internal poll:
1. that Depo (and Tracy even for those who liked him over Depodesta) is gone for this?
2. that the GM has been a giant for the last 9 years and MCcourt talks about restoring tradition
3. that we head into 2006 with a rookie GM and more than likely a rookie manager too
5. the thought that our kids could be traded for kenny lofton.
6. that we really are a joke and there is no way to defend that anymore.
One would think that watching Barry play everyday would have a profound impact of the importance of OBP. To not, would be like Buzz Aldrin being skeptical of the moon's existence.
One would think that watching Barry play everyday would have a profound impact of the importance of OBP. To not, would be like Buzz Aldrin being skeptical of the moon's existence.
Because age matters in situations like this. His credentials are significantly more extensive. When Colletti started in baseball, DePodesta was 8. Plus, he has a completely different personality. He's a guy who can play office politics--a skill I don't think DePodesta had. A guy like Colletti can shine 'em on. Keeping your idiot bosses out of your hair is an incredibly valuable skill for an exec in Colletti's position. If Kim Ng were hired--well my fear was she would've been treated like Dee Dee Myers in the Clinton White House. "Oooh, you're the first woman, presidential press secretary, isn't that exciting? Now, before you open your mouth, you have to clear everything with us." The title, but not the authority.
Don't take Plaschke's endorsement on face value. Plaschke's wrong about everything. Whatever it is he sees in Colletti, it's probably far from the reality. Plaschke deals in caricatures. Colletti is undoubtedly far more complex than a Nilla Wafer like Bill Plaschke could ever imagine.
Similarly, I don't really care that Colletti comes from the Giants. If he's a good GM, he's a good GM, and that would be their loss and our gain. I just see any reason, at this point, to think that he will be based on what the Giants front office has done.
Not only is the Giants approach and philosophy a bad one, its one that could be particularly disastrous for the Dodgers at this stage unless of course we can sign in his prime, and retain for 12 years, the next greatest play ever.
What did he say he was looking for?
"He helped build a 2002 World Series team with a lineup that featured Benito Santiago batting fifth, David Bell playing third and Shawon Dunston doing whatever."
Just curious: Is Bill an idiot or just cringingly disingenuous? Could it be both?
A) Santiago and Bell in outperformed their much-missed counterparts Lo Duca and Beltre in 2002.
B) Dunston had 147 ABs that year (and still managed to put up an impressive -7 VORP).
C) That team featured the our very own Jeff Kent doing big things. (OPS+ 157)
D) There was a certain "brooding superstar" whose OPS+ in 2002 was 275. I think that probably helped Ned's cause a bit.
I'm excited to see that formula put in place in LA.
I have several tabs open in Firefox. One of them has Plaschke's article open in it.
The text in the tab reads: "Dodgers Get a Big Ass..."
Prophetic?
Still, it probably is true that Orel doesn't quite fit the bill. I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up working for the Dodgers is some other capacity.
I'm hoping he is, I have blind faith that he wants to show his old boss that though he once was the learner, Now he is the master.
has seen an accelerating trend lately. It may even make sense.
Lets hope this goes like Bilichek(sp?)'s seperation from Parcel.
Wasn't 2005 the Dodgers' first losing season with DePodesta?
And this really irritates me:
"That's the thing about being 50 instead of 32. You know that you don't know it all."
My perception is the Old School guys think their 25+ years of experience tell them all they need to know. Do you want your GM picking players based on what Dallas Green told him over a beer in 1982? Or a GM who looks at park effects, platoon splits, advanced defensive metrics etc?
Plaschke et al are far more impressed by who Colletti knows and what people say about him than his approach to evaluating players. But we can all sleep easy knowing that Colletti will smoothly work the room at the team holiday party.
my ned glass is half full at this point...
self edit. plus it's the character behind the post. the numbers aren't important.
Judging by Plaschke's bio, he is in his late 40s. He graduated from college in 1980 and he's been married for 22 years.
Geez, you know, one of Colletti's biggest assets will be how much brass he's got. If he can stand up to the McCourts AND Tommy then he may be a good guy to have after all.
GOOD OL' NED
... T-shirt design in progress
He wants to have a manager in place by the Winter meetings (1st week of December).
Work on the outfield and corner infielders.
3 areas:
Interested in signing FAs to fill spots for a few years while prospects get ready.
Would want to sign FAs for a longer term for positions that we don't have prospects.
Evaluate talent to get a read on when they will be ready.
He won't trade someone who projects to be a starter.
Comments about Jeff Kent, he spoke to Jeff yesterday, sit down with him during the Winter meetings.
What is Kim Ng's status, has known her since she started. Admires her work. He believes she will in integral part of what the Dodgers do.
Will be meeting with Kim Ng, Roy Smith and Logan White today to evaluate talent, rosters need to be set for Rule V draft purposes.
In 2002 Jeff Kent got in a well publicized dugout screaming match with David Bell. Benito was on the roids. Dunston was 39 with a .250 OBP but liked by all. Free passes all around from Good Ol' Bill.
* on the managerial search
- will be making calls about who to speak to in 3-5 days
- be on the road tonight to travel to see some people face-to-face
* timeframe for selecting a manager
- 7 - 10 days, maybe some more after that to sleep on it, give
top 1-2 people one more look
- good to have in place by winter meetings
* what do you see that needs to be done?
- outfield upgraded
- perhaps corners of infield
- needs to spend time with baseball people to see what they think
- got some kids coming - not sure if they're ready for opening day but
not too far off, need to manage short term with long term
- don't want to bring in people who will hold back the kids
* dodgers have best prospects in the league, but you have typically brought
in veterans, approach for balancing needs of kids versus free agent
veterans (email question)
- veteran players - curious to see if there are free agents who can
be productive to hold the fort for a couple years until younger players
are ready, don't want to sign somebody so long who will hinder someone
who is definitely a future productive major leaguer
- may sign some longer term based on position
- younger players - constant process developing and evaluating,
imperative to incorporate the young player into every season, need
to gauge when they are ready
- trades - do not want to acquire positions in long term deals if a
bonafide young player on the verge of being a big-league player
* what's your preferred method - farm or free agency, please keep core
- believe in winning or developing at the same time
- won't say won't trade a player or two -- need to pick the right ones
- no interest in moving somebody who will be a regular or a star player
- slipped on this question and said there were young players who will play someday "for the Giants"
* did you also handle the arbitration cases?
- Brian gave him great latitude, not one portion of job that he didn't
get into - trades, bringing players to the table to acquire, arbitration,
contracts, knows agents
* role changes as general manager - are you going to need to identify a
ned colletti for dodgers as an assistant?
- not sure yet
- good people here, everyone here will get a chance
- Sabean: one of toughest jobs is to find the next you
* Jeff Kent - have you talked with him?
- Jeff called him yesterday to congratulate him
- will be sitting down with him face-to-face and other players to get
their read - players he believes in and that have a view of the world
that is solid
* Kim Ng
- known her for a long time
- good relationship through the years
- lot of trust and confidence in her
- will be an integral part of what we do
* miscellaneous
- will be sitting down with Kim, Roy Smith, Logan White to find out where
they are with free agents, trades, kids
- rosters need to be set for rule 5 draft in next few days
- continuity is imperative to be successful - find the right people,
mentor them
Brian (Fresno, CA): Can you comment on the new Dodgers GM? And PLEASE tell me he's not going to do anything rash and trade away the stocked farm system!
Jim Callis: (2:41 PM ET ) Ned Coletti is widely respected in baseball circles, though my preference as a GM would be to hire someone with a strong background in scouting and talent evaluation. The Dodgers do have a lot of holes in their lineup, so I think you will see some prospects traded this offseason. I think Joel Guzman is the most likely to go, and the Dodgers will try to hang on to Chad Billingsley, Andy LaRoche and Russ Martin.
Careful what you wish for... a higher payroll could impact his performance negatively as well; back-loaded and bad FA signings that keep future signings to a minimum, etc. I also believe a lower payroll could have a greater impact on his performance positively; if he can put together a winner based on creative dealings within a budget then he could prove himself to be a master. I'm not saying you are wrong (if i understood your comment correctly to begin with), just that I don't think greater payroll necessarily translates to positive impact.
I have yet to see a definitive quote about a payroll limit for the 2006 Dodgers. Certainly, I'm not expecting anything above $90 million at this point, but the speculation about $75 million - did that originate anywhere legitimate?
"Colletti, meanwhile, is accustomed to working with a payroll budget in the $75-million range, which is roughly what McCourt is expected to give him to work with in 2006."
That's my point. There's no source to this statement. That could be an anonymous source or Jackson's own conjecture. That's not what I'm looking for.
Weaver SO's first 6 batters.
It's one thing to cross your heart and hope to die for the satisfaction of the fans, but Colletti's Job One is to make the most of whatever's he's got. Let Camille Johnston worry about the PR--she's a genius!
http://tinyurl.com/dt4kn (Nationals.com article on Guillen/Vidro surgeries for the tinyurl blocked)
Colletti's criteria for a manager sounds like "not Jim Tracy."
Colletti likes the outfield (and I don't think he's talking about Bradley). Does that make Werth a starter? He wants to improve the infield corners. J.T. Snow and Joe Randa are coming to LA. Yay!
I dont really see how this is an "atleast its not bowden" guy because theres no reason or indication that he'll be anything better or different.
it sounds like mccourt and colletti are planning to turn the dodgers into a GD dupont factory.
It is a good feeling to know that when he sits across the table from Boras, that Boras will not be able to take advantage of him. I also think that he will be able to sign Hochevar to a major league deal after the Rule 5 draft along the lines of Craig Hansen. I know that there are makeup questions with him, but I think that Colletti will be able to look through it and chalk it up as a part of Hochevar's maturing process.
I tend to be called a "sciolist's sciolist."
Somebody tell Hee Seop to hang out with Drew in the offseason.
"As has been reported on the West Coast, McCourt was eager to get Epstein, and made contact through a third party in Boston less than 24 hours after he left the Red Sox on Nov. 1. Epstein said he was extremely impressed with the McCourts and how sincerely they want to run the right kind of operation. Had there been more time between the Red Sox and Dodger offers, he might have taken the L.A. job, but discussions did not get to the offer stage, and while McCourt had hinted that Epstein could have a small piece of ownership, the talks never got that far."
he did mention the dodgers as an organization for which asia has "become a source of talent"
I wouldn't have to keep saying it but he still hasn't had one.
A yuk huk yuk.
i am finding myself really not very interested in hearing much that this guy has to say.
Pros-
Doesn't care about chemistry
Supposedly doesn't like paying aging players.
Cons-
Places mental makeup above stats.
Over values defense.
Over values speed.
Believes in things like "the closer mentality."
Gave contracts of 1 to 3 million dollars to middling middle relievers (Christianson, Felix Rodriguez, Matt Herges, and others.
Likes "hard workers"
All in all, doesn't look good.
http://tinyurl.com/clwox
Thanks
I like Cameron. Nady may be good, but he's not Cameron, yet. Assuming Cameron can hit it out of Petco, he could be somewhat of a threat. This also eliminates the possible Finley-Klesko deal. Now Klesko is practically guarunteed a spotin the line up, and there's a good chance Giles could be gone. Still, I wish the Mets could have wrestled more away from the Padres than just Xavier Nady
Choi-C Wilson(of/1st) / Kent / Izzy / Lowell / Navarro-Ausmus(FA)
Jose Cruz / JD Drew / Bernie Williams(FA) / Werth / Ledee
Pitching
Penney / Lowe / Morris(FA) / J Moyer(FA) / E Jackson
Gagne / Sanchez / Broxton / Kuo / Osario / Wunsch
OP Gone -attitude
Brazoban Gone - little known fact that he dislikes pitchers whose first name starts with "Y"
MB Gone-Jeff Kent trumps MB
The thing about the Dodger job is, at least superficially it's a very good position: The system is supposedly loaded, the bad contracts have all been excreted and the payroll is relatively low. (If you consider the Lowe contract bad it's at least productive, as opposed to the Dreifort contract. Drew is worth the money if he plays, and he might play.) What this shows is the dynamics of a business where there are only 30 jobs. If you take one and things go wrong you might never get another chance. Thus the big names are going to be leary about a situation where things beyond their power might go wrong, i.e., unstable owners. The people who are willing to take this kind of position are the ones in a position where they have to gamble or stay No. 2s.
Roberts
Loretta
Cameron
Klesko
Greene
Castilla
Johnson
Olivo
I sure hopw they end there... If Sabean is lost without Colletti, the Dodgers could be looking at the playoffs next year with limited upgrades
I'm betting Jon doesn't comment on the first paragraph of this one.
"Don't take Plaschke's endorsement on face value. Plaschke's wrong about everything. Whatever it is he sees in Colletti, it's probably far from the reality. Plaschke deals in caricatures. Colletti is undoubtedly far more complex than a Nilla Wafer like Bill Plaschke could ever imagine."
I just wanna day that this has got to be the truest thing I've read in months. I mean it.
Snow .275/.343/.365 .708 367 AB 4 HR
Robles .272/.332..368 .700 364 AB 5 HR
Yes, Robles has more power than Snow. Colletti may realize that Snow's career is over, so he'll turn to a younger version of Snow in Travis Lee.
We've already made that clear that around here, when you hit the "Hitler" button, your credibility is shot. I'm sorry they did that.
If that happens again, he'll be very good next year. In 10 innings, he has 11 Ks, and has yet to give up an earned run. He has 7 saves. He's allowed 8 baserunners in that time. I have no idea what he's doing down there, but if this is a result of developing a good change up or breaking ball, then this could be legitimate.
Then every year when it counted he pitched like the old Stan Wall.
Today's thread has it all,from speculation that prized prospects will be traded for a bag of stale cheetos, to calls for the Korean community to rise up in solidarity of Choi, to the perennial prediction that key front office staffers will quit in protest.
Haven't seen this much hysteria since that last Shannon Doherty disaster film on TV. (Category 8,Ned Attacks!!)
Colletti wouldn't really answer a question regarding using his knowledge of Sabean and the Giants against them. He said Tracy could go against us just as easy
Colletti isn't worried about ending up like DePo. He said he asks a lot of questions (said this a few times). He claims he is not someone who can't read or understand the newspaper. He spent 5-6 hours with Frank last week, 9-10 on Monday, and 2-3 more with Jamie yesterday. He's not an introvert, that's for sure
He won't admit he's more traditional than DePo, but he did say he needs to know everything about a player before signing them, including how they live their lives. He made several comments that clearly go against Bradley
The Orel rumors are untrue according to Colletti. A new manager will be judged like a new player, then he started naming off the same things he said during the press conference.
Our farm system is "on the verge of being very good." What does that mean? He seems to like the prospects, but doesn't want the entire team to be rookies. A new manager must be open minded about rookies. Hopefully that means no Piniella or Baker. He will start his phone calls in the next hour or two, and hopes to have efveryone notified by tomorrow
He can't answer a question about payroll. He claims he's not being evasive. He brought up numerous expensive players to McCourt, and McCourt assured him he could get who he wanted. I wouldn't completely trust McCourt
Kent isn't really a leader, just a hard worker. He signed Kent originally because some other executives said he was going to be very good, despite being quiet, and wants as many Kents as possible
Man does he talk a lot.
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