Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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I've been among those urging the Dodgers to improve their starting pitching, but I'm going to play Devil's Advocate with myself.
Below is a comparison of the 34 starts made by Jeff Weaver in 2005, at a cost of about $9 million, with the 36 starts made by Scott Erickson, D.J. Houlton, Edwin Jackson and Derek Thompson, at a cost of about $1 million - in order of ERA within each start.
| Weaver | IP | ER | ERA | Erickson/Houlton/Jackson/Thompson | IP | ER | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0 | 0.00 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| 9 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.1 | 1 | 1.76 | ||
| 8 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.1 | 1 | 1.76 | ||
| 8 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 1 | 1.80 | ||
| 8 | 1 | 1.13 | 6.2 | 2 | 2.90 | ||
| 7.1 | 1 | 1.27 | 6.1 | 2 | 2.95 | ||
| 7 | 1 | 1.29 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 | ||
| 7 | 1 | 1.29 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 | ||
| 6 | 1 | 1.50 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 | ||
| 8 | 2 | 2.25 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 | ||
| 8 | 2 | 2.25 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 | ||
| 8 | 2 | 2.25 | 5 | 2 | 3.60 | ||
| 7 | 2 | 2.57 | 5 | 2 | 3.60 | ||
| 6.2 | 2 | 2.90 | 5 | 2 | 3.60 | ||
| 6 | 2 | 3.00 | 7 | 3 | 3.86 | ||
| 6 | 2 | 3.00 | 6.1 | 3 | 4.43 | ||
| 6 | 2 | 3.00 | 6 | 3 | 4.50 | ||
| 6 | 2 | 3.00 | 5.1 | 3 | 5.29 | ||
| 7 | 3 | 3.86 | 5 | 3 | 5.40 | ||
| 6 | 3 | 4.50 | 5 | 3 | 5.40 | ||
| 6 | 3 | 4.50 | 5 | 3 | 5.40 | ||
| 7.2 | 4 | 5.00 | 6 | 4 | 6.00 | ||
| 7 | 4 | 5.14 | 6 | 4 | 6.00 | ||
| 6 | 4 | 6.00 | 6 | 4 | 6.00 | ||
| 6.1 | 5 | 7.38 | 4.2 | 3 | 6.43 | ||
| 6 | 5 | 7.50 | 5.2 | 4 | 6.92 | ||
| 6.2 | 6 | 8.71 | 3.2 | 3 | 8.44 | ||
| 6.2 | 6 | 8.71 | 4.2 | 4 | 8.57 | ||
| 6 | 6 | 9.00 | 4.2 | 5 | 10.71 | ||
| 5.2 | 6 | 10.38 | 5 | 6 | 10.80 | ||
| 5 | 6 | 10.80 | 4.2 | 6 | 12.86 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 11.25 | 4.1 | 6 | 13.17 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 18.00 | 4.2 | 7 | 15.00 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 24.00 | 2 | 6 | 27.00 | ||
| 1.2 | 4 | 30.00 | |||||
| 1.1 | 5 | 40.91 |
But in general, the difference between Weaver and the motley crew he's being compared to is that every fifth game, Weaver would pitch an extra inning or two and allow one or two fewer runs.
Weaver is valued for his innings-eating skills, but are there other ways to eat those innings? Can they be swallowed more cheaply than Weaver would digest them? The going rate for an innings eater - based on what guys like Weaver, Derek Lowe and Odalis Perez command - is about $8-10 million per year. Instead of spending that kind of money on a pitcher who is going to make a difference every fifth day, maybe it's better to spend that kind of money on a hitter who is going make a difference every day.
If you use a 99-Cent Store brand starting pitcher, you would have to ask more from your bullpen. You'd probably end up carrying a seventh reliever to help pick up those middle innings your starter would sometimes miss. But if you have better offense, you're less likely to need that 25th roster spot for a position player anyway.
It's not as if Houlton and Jackson aren't likely to improve a bit in 2006. It's not as if Chad Billingsley isn't close to being ready for the big leagues. And it's not as if the Dodgers couldn't sign a pitcher for about $2 million who could hold opponents to four runs in six innings every fifth day, on average, before turning the game over to the bullpen.
So maybe starting pitching should be the last thing the Dodgers worry about.
Just thinking out loud, trying to consider all the possibilities.
Also, the Mets are supposed to be getting Delgado and $7M cash for Mike Jacobs Yusmeiro Petit.
So there's one less thing for Dodger fans to worry about.
Bobby Howry, 32, RHP The ideal setup man because he keeps the ball in the park (four homers allowed in 73 IP last season), walks few batters (16), can pitch to righties or lefties and can even close in a pinch. He showed in the second half that his elbow is back to full strength: a 0.99 ERA, only four earned runs and a .146 batting average against.
I, for one, would be welcome to the idea of having a Dodgers team that could score more runs. That seems to be antithetical to what most Dodgers fans want. They'd rather have Juan Pierres motoring around, getting caught stealing 20 times a year.
"The team is more focused on free-agent catchers Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina than they are on potential trades for one. The Mets don't believe Lo Duca's abilities justify the $6.25 million he's due in salary in each of the next two seasons, and now that the team has acquired Carlos Delgado from Florida, it is unlikely that they will make a separate deal to get Lo Duca from them."
They just don't value heart and soul like they used to.
A rotation of Penny, Lowe, Perez, Houlton and Jackson is not the worst thing I could imagine. I would like to replace Houlton, though. Ted Lilly or Johnson (from Detroit) would be a nice improvement there.
I'm still baffled by that. Who were the young Dodger hitters in 2004? When did Morris become a wily veteran?
My email is down at the moment and I couldn't email this to you, but thought everyone else might find some interest in it.
http://tinyurl.com/9szfv
http://tinyurl.com/by2pu
Pierre only had two stolen bases in seven games against the Dodgers. Now the Nats or Cubs -- well, he swiped seven each against those clubs.
best case scenario for marlins:
-they platoon willingham and jacobs at first and get 75% of delgados production for 700k
-petit turns into livan hernandez
Then why convice him to interview with us? Maybe everyone is tired of hearing Lasorda, which I might add is a good thing.
Not that the Mets got robbed, but if you can get a used car for 500 bucks why offer 1000?
because that used car is a big name hispanic player :)
Holiday spirit...?
Extremely. Any chance the Dodgers would have of winning a championship would be completely extinguished.
Yeah, but Bradley doesn't fit Flanders' "Personal life > Performance" philosophy and Drew doesn't fit Flanders' "Healthy players" philosophy.
- Must know how to win: Why do we hear about Fregosi, then? Why Hershiser?
- Must be a Dodger: Why Fregosi?
They don't have a clue and they don't have a direction. You know, it's funny, but people talk about the Ex-Cub Factor (i.e., the team with more ex-Cubs will lose the World Series) with regards to players, but being that Colletti is a long-time Cub, I have to wonder what this means WRT the Dodgers. Is there an application in front offices? Consider:
"It's hard to put a finger on it," says Jim Brosnan, a writer who once pitched for the Cubs, during a contemplative moment. "You have to have a certain dullness of mind and sprit to play here. I went though psychoanalysis, and that halped me deal with my Cubness."
http://www.all-baseball.com/ref/berler.html
That "dullness of mind and spirit" -- one would assume it comes from the top, yes?
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/sks/113325348.html
I hear though that the Dixie Cups used by the Dodgers are the new digital models. And some of them have riddles on the side to keep people amused.
35
I am a trendsetter in the region.
I have been watching ESPNews and have not heard a thing about Jim Thome or seen anything mentioned on the bottom scroll.
wait, are you serious?
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/sks/113325348.html
why not let micheals or victorino try and hold down the cf position?
is it more, or has there been more big names traded this offseason than ususual?
Haha well I watched Thome a lot with MLb extra innings because he was on my friend's fantasy team and he just looked terrible this season. Now it could all be because of injury but he just looked terrible.
Thome will be "the team's 'right-handed slugger who used to hit for power right up to the year they started testing for steroids, I'm sure it's just a crazy coincidence' guy."
I really hope the A's get Thomas and Bradley. Frank was my favorite player growing up, I even had his signature batting gloves in little league.
Innings eater around the $2 million range, I think Brett Tomko might be a good suiter. He'll probably command around $3-4 million a year for the next contract, he made $2.6 in 05. His stats aren't all that bad, especially at his home park or at Dodger Stadium. Adjust them a bit for the pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium and he looks even better at a great price. His record last year is very deceiving as the SF bullpen blew a lot of his leads, he could have easily had 12 wins in 05. We are full of #3 pitchers and I don't think Weaver is an ace of any staff. I think the Dodgers would be better off pursuing a guy like Brett Tomko, cheap and he'll do the job.
Here's how they compare:
Tomko W L IP SO ERA
2002 10 10 204.1 126 4.49
2003 13 9 203.2 114 5.29
2004 11 7 194 108 4.04
2005 8 15 191.2 114 4.48
Weaver W L IP SO ERA
2002 11 11 200.2 132 3.52
2003 7 9 159.1 93 5.99
2004 13 13 220 153 4.01
2005 14 11 224 157 4.22
IMO, they look pretty even with the exception of 05. I blame a lot of what happened in 05 on him playing for the Giants. That team sucked the first half of the season, no run support, horrible defense, and a bullpen that loved to give up runs.
Here's Tomko's stats at Dodger Stadium (DS) and his Home Stats from 2002-2005.
Tomko GS W L ER ERA
05 DS 3 0 1 8 4.08
05 SBC 14 6 5 3.58
04 DS 3 1 0 5 2.01
04 SBC 13 6 4 5.31
03 DS 1 0 0 5 8.44
03 Busch15 4 4 2.88
02 DS 2 2 0 1 0.6
02 QC 18 6 5 4.13
DS Stats 02to05- 9GS-3W-1L-19ER-2.88ERA
Home Stats 02to05- 60GS-22W-18L-170ER-3.92ERA
His stats at home are solid, as are his stats at Dodger Stadium.
Would love to hear what everyone else thinks. Maybe there's some better "innings eaters" available via the free agent market, any suggestions?
thanks
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