I agree that it is too early to determine if Furcal is overpaid. But on the flipside, if the Dodgers made an offer and then let him sign with Chicago wouldn't we be talking about how the McCourt really don't have enough money to run the franchise?

It's hard for me to fault the Dodgers for overpaying when the conventional wisdom has been lately that the payroll will be a limitation for the club to compete.

Thanks to Jon and everyone else on this site who are more savvy about every aspect of baseball than I... on the surface of things the Furcal signing seemed completely non-sensical to me, but those of you performing more detailed analysis of this move have put a logical spin to it that I can appreciate and for that I am grateful!

I do not post very often because I do not feel I can add much to the discussion/analysis; however, I thoroughly enjoying purusing and occasionally I feel the need to say something... like now: Dodger Thoughts is awesome!

Well, honest now, I hadn't seen this when I was singing Canuck's praises at the end of the thread below . . .

Thanks for the Choi link -- boy, I can see why the papers would be clamoring to get rid of that guy.

And as for the Choi article:
The most memorable moment was when I stood next to Choi Hee-seop at the batting cage. He taught me a lot...

So the new chant at DS shall now be?
Choi Hee-Seop!
Choi Hee-Seop!
Choi Hee-Seop!

What a positive influence this guy is... no matter what you think of him as a ballplayer he is obviously a very wonderful and humble human.

Two random ex-Nationals free agents who I never see mentioned anywhere ever. Preston Wilson, and Deivi Cruz.

Sam DC,

You asked in the previous thread whether Camille Johnston had, for one day, earned her pay--referring I think to Furcal's agent's public praise of McCourt's "passion for baseball" and commitment to turning around the team. In case you don't go back to that thread, here's how I responded:

I think Camille Johnston earns her pay every day. The point of my jibes is that her client, the McCourt! brand, is a fraud. You can have the most talented, experienced PR person in the world, but PR doesn't work unless it's true. When the client/boss is a tool like McCourt, some PR people try to impress the boss by overreaching, by buying into the boss' fantasy self-image, and pushing it onto the press long after the press has stopped buying it. Eventually, that dynamic plays out in the way all the other PR help McCourt has experienced--they get blamed, they get fired. So in that sense, I feel for Camille, hope she's getting paid a lot, and hope she's putting a lot of it in the bank.

Good PR people are also lucky. Camille is lucky that Furcal's agent, counting up 10 percent of $40 million, wanted to blow a little smoke up McCourt's skirt.

excellent points, Ratt. And I hope you know my comment was not a challenge to you, but an observation that, to me, she seemed to have done well (or, as you say, been lucky) on this, which I lofted your way as you are the keenest/most dedicated observer of those issues on the site. sam

as if we needed any more reason to hate delino.

"Instead of trading players to improve the team at shortstop, they're trading dollars. And as I wrote in the comments, because you don't know exactly which prospects will flourish ... the more the merrier.

This is where I have a logical problem. The Dodgers are far more limited in payroll space than they are in prospects. John Sickel listed 20 terrific prospects, and there are probably a few more underneath those that other MLB teams would covet. The Dodgers never play all of them--they'll hardly be able to even see all of them. The value of some of them will never be higher than it is today. So why shouldn't the Dodgers try to deal some of them strategically to get players who can deliver on a major league level for less than $13.3 million. I'm not saying Billingsley, Guzman, LaRoche. But are all good Dodger prospects untouchable?

[9] i agree, but i don't want to settle for "players who can deliver on a major league level". if we've got such good prospects to trade, i want a barry zito or an adam dunn in return.

the talk of signing marginal free agents such as randa or mueller, much less to play them at FIRST base, makes me want to throw up all over frank mccourt.

I'm hopng this is a signal that those 75 million dollar payroll grumblings going around last month were just rumors. In fact, given the deeper holes in the outfield and thirdbase, this is the only way this deal makes sense to me--- that we have a 95 million plus payroll.

Of course things don't always make sense in McCourt's court but I am hopeful.

On a more negative note, there is still a scenario where the Furcal signing has actually broken McCourt's bank, and therefore Colletti will be forced to trade good prospects for a pitcher and a slugging outfielder. Then this whole thing smells of desperation.

Hmm... interesting times.

So what does Colletti do with Robles, Aybar, and APerez, especially if he signs a veteran 3B? Robles is older, and utility men like him don't tend to be worth much. Perez is currently injured due to a ball in the face in the DR, so I'm not sure what value he has (as best I can tell, he just has a lot of swelling, nothing more, but he is out for the DR season). Aybar probably has the most value, but he's also likely the most valuable to the Dodgers. If all these guys are kept, and don't play 3B, then the bench is going to lack a lot of power

But are all good Dodger prospects untouchable?
No, but the offer has to be right. I've heard Julio Lugo's name mentioned as someone who could be acquired for a prospect. Pass.

On Cubs' Banter next door, Derek Smart says in effect that the Dodgers nabbed Furcal out from under them because as a large-market club, we can throw more money per year at a player for a shorter time period, and thus crowd out the "mid-level payroll" competition.

Just an aside, but why are the Chicago Cubs a "mid-level" payroll team? Chicagoland is huge, Cubs Nation is global, and WGN is a superstation that delivers the Cubs revenues from national advertisers. Why shouldn't the Cubs be as strong financially as any team in baseball, including the Dodgers?

I think the Dodgers swiped Furcal because they approached him more intelligently. The contract we offered is better for both the team and the player. This is the strategy DePodesta should've used to keep Beltre, and will become the model for attracting free agents in their 20s. The Cubs fans can spin it that it's because the big bad Dodgers can throw more money, but I think that's a comforting fallacy.

[12] well, saenz and ledee are on the bench. eventually werth will be around. they've all got some power.

someone will eventually have to go, though. probably robles.

15 Saenz won't necessarily be on the bench, he's a FA. Assuming the Dodgers don't go with a crazy 7 man bench, there wouldn't be room for either Saenz or a 5th OF.

Aybar has some pop.
ISO by year/age/level/team:
2003/20/A+/Vero Beach: 153
2004/21/AA/Jax: 149
Career ISO for Izturis: 77

I share your mixture of optimism and concern, Jon. I'm glad we've got a good player in Furcal, but worried about what the $13million spent here means for our other, bigger needs.

As for the Izzy to 2b, Kent to 1b idea: This would pretty much make the acquisition worthless for this year, at least. Yes, July is a long ways away, and I suppose that this could give Choi 3 months to prove himself. But -- and I think Andrew Shimmin made a similar point in the previous thread -- what would he have to do to "prove" himself? I can easily imagine that for those 3 months, Choi plays against right handers, sits againsts lefties (with, say, Perez or Aybar at 2b, Kent at 1b). This means his counting stats won't look impressive. Maybe he'll have 10HR and 33RBI at the halfway point of the season, and he'll be hitting .260. Will it matter that he's OPSing 850? What if Izzy is ready to play in June, and Choi has 6HR, 20RBI...and is OPSing 850. Is there going to be a wave of support to keep Choi and trade Izzy, especially if Izzy re-enters the lineup and hits .280 (with a 695 OPS)?

In short, we have no reason to assume that the decision about Choi will be based on a reasonably evaluation of his performance.

18 - Or even a reasonable evaluation of his performance!

Infielders
Kent
Choi
Furcal
A-Perez
Robles
Aybar
Izturis

Outfielders
Drew
Bradley
Werth
Ledee
Repko
Cruz

Catchers
Navarro
Phillips

Who am I missing?
I've got Izturis starting the season on the DL, mayper Werth too. Aybar and Repko should get some more seasoning at Vegas.

mayper = maybe

2 I believe Aybar is out of options due to his time on the 40 man roster. Can anyone confirm this?

Jon, you really should take that last Furcal theorem (that Furcal's OPS will rise at age 28 like Deshields'), scribble it in the margins of the website and claim that you have an elegant proof for it but that there's just not enough bandwidth to accomodate it. That would be cool.

As for me, my thoughts about the signing are swinging back and forth. I guess you could say I'm on Furcal's Pendulum.

Just a couple of thoughts:

1) Don't the Dodgers at some point have to cut bait with some of the good prospects due to service time?

2) Is Furcal truly being overpaid, if the going market for a player of his ability given the current supply and demand of available shortstops is 3 years @ $39mil?

3) I don't think it's fair to compare the Furcal signing with the DeShields trade.

4) Dodgers look to be pretty solid on defense up the middle for what it's worth.

5) Great point Jon made the other day comparing the Furcal and Bradley character issues as it relates to whether or not the Dodgers can now use character as a reason to get rid of Bradley.

6) USC rocks!

vr, Xei

I have nothing to add at the time. I just want a different final comment.

Ok, Bob, I'll give you some news. UH beat San Diego State last night 49-38 in football, ending 5-7, and the UH Wahine beat Texas in volleyball to advance to the second round of regionals.

There, now USC-UCLA is only a bad memory, right? ;)

The Yankees apparently lost money last year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2247401

The most interesting part of the story is that MLB thinks that the Yankees undervalue their TV rights which are owned by a cable network they own.

If YES is shown to have underpaid, this could mean that MLB may be taking a look at NESN and the Red Sox. The Braves have a somewhat similar situation with TBS and Turner South.

5 -- Repko for Gigantor, straight up.

Those of you who have been warming to Simers should have been shocked back to reality today. He's so dishonest and confused, he's just pinned this signing on Paul DePodesta. Even though Furcal isn't even any good at getting on base.

Cubs and WGN?

26

Thanks, the game was a bad memory after I went to the movies.

Instead I'll merely nurse a grudge until I go crazy at work and tell people "Go find your own $%&#@ Wall Street Journal."

And of course, even though DePodesta is no longer the GM.

Ken Rosenthal's column of FOX Sports says that Furcal is the type of player that DePodesta wouldn't have been interested in and that Colletti is signing the right kind of player.

At least we overpaid for a good player. However, I think this means Choi will not play, which would make me unhappy. The talk of Kent moving to first and the presence of Izzy makes me worry that Coletti will play Izzy at second and relegate Choi to the bench permanently.

Highlights from Mr. Rosenthal's piece:

With one bold — albeit expensive — stroke, new general manager Ned Colletti has moved the Dodgers back toward their time-honored pitching-and-defense foundation, restoring them as a threat in the mediocre N.L. West.

The Dodgers have pitching?

And

The reality is that Colletti probably can't fix everything in one off-season. But unlike his predecessor, Paul DePodesta, he's targeting the right kinds of players. Prior to signing Furcal, Colletti nearly landed free-agent outfielder Brian Giles, who re-signed with the Padres. His next target could be free-agent third baseman Bill Mueller, a favorite of Colletti's from their days together with the Giants.

Why do the journalists (using the term loosly) continue to cast every move, every thought, every interview in a Moneyball/Stat/Depo v. Scouting/Nonstat/Ned confrontation. Didn't both these GM's say there must be consideration of both schools of thought? While Depo and Ned attach differerent weight to these factors they don't see the issue so black and white, so why do Simmers and Gurnick? Get over it.

For that matter why is anyone even discussing whether Depo would have liked this move. He is not our GM and the issue is totally irrelevant. It is just a cheap shot at the guy. Let Depo's Dodger career RIP.

Meanwhile, has anyone noticed we still do not have a manager?

Meanwhile, has anyone noticed we still do not have a manager?
I'll bet that's fixed by week's end.

Of course, to merely be a "threat" in a "mediocre" NL West, one would have to be...well, we'll ask the GMs and the Congressmen to finish that syllogism.

35 When I mentioned the signing to my brother this morning, he said "wow, the Dodgers have a new player but they don't have a new manager"

Onto Gurnick (and not related to LATs post).. so Kent, Drew, and Lowe weren't the right type of characters?

His next target could be free-agent third baseman Bill Mueller, a favorite of Colletti's from their days together with the Giants.

Well hey hey! If he's a favorite of Ned's, then he's good enough for the Dodgers!
Kirk Rueter come on down!!!

It's easy to make everything in to "good guys vs. bad guys" (Exhibit A: My whining about USC yesterday), but I do think that DePodesta's getting hit over the head with a lot more so than Ed Wade or Chuck LaMar or John Hart.

In the N.Y. Times, there is a story about the Mets interest in Lo Duca. The story states that since Lo Duca was born in Brooklyn, Omar Minaya thinks that Lo Duca will be better suited to deal with the media scrutiny of N.Y.C.

The fact that Lo Duca was just born in Brooklyn, but really grew up in Arizona is not a factor. But I hear that people in Glendale, Arizona can be really nasty at times.

And MLB.com's headline for the Furcal story is "Source: Furcal heading to Hollywood"

Could someone tell Furcal that Dodger Stadium is not in the middle of the Hollywood/Highland shopping complex? He needs to go about 5-6 east to get to the stadium.

So far I haven't noticed much of a difference between Neddie and Depo, other than the mustache. Wasn't it reported earlier that Depo's offseason targets were going to be Giles and Furcal?

Don't get me wrong, Furcal is a very good player. I am glad we got him. However, its hard to give Ned too much credit for this one. Esentially what he did was take a player everyone knows is good and outbid other teams. Where is the cunnning in this? That is what he is supposed to do, but this is not exactly a clever GM move. Everyone saw Ned coming, he was just carring a bigger wallet. I want to see how he does with some "creative" "thrifty" moves.

It is possible Kent has already signed off on this signing. In fact, he may have caused it. What if he requested to be traded and Flanders wants to keep that fact under cover for awhile? Sign Furcal, move Izzy (or use one of the prospects) and trade Kent for a big outfielder. How about Kent for Manny and some salary help? Choi gets to play, we try some prospects at third or sign someone, hopefully Nomar. And, of course, it means Bradley is staying.

You know Bob, Dodger Stadium may be somewhere in the middle of the Hollywood & Highland complex. Have you ever walked through that place? It is the worst laid out mall ever. When I walk through there I feel like I should be looking for a peice of cheese.

Maybe Furcal's been given a spot on the Red Carpet for the Oscars? He'll get to interview the stars about where they got their clothes.

"Source: Furcal heading to Hollywood"
Because nobody outside of LA knows where Los Feliz is?

Since when has Dodger Stadium been in Los Feliz?

46. Move over Joan Rivers!

It isn't, just as it's not in Hollywood. But DS is closer to Los Feliz than it is to H'wood.
Heck of it is, everyone knows where Chavez Ravine is (or what it means, anyway). So why didn't the headline writer use that?

Other rumors:
Kent to the Mets.
Soriano from the Rangers.
Three-way deal, perhaps?

The Kent to the Mets rumors are very heavy, but they seem to be all based in the fervid imaginings of Mets fans.

It could happen, but this offseason, the Mets think that they are getting every player.

One of the Mets fans says that Colletti disliked Kent from his Giants days and wanted him out.

43 -

Colletti didn't just outbid the Cubs, he did it using some creativity. "The Sheriff" would have taken the Cubs offer of 5/50 and gone 6/60 or 6/72. Colletti actually underbid the Cubs on the total contract and still got his player. This may still turn out to be another DeShields, but I'm happy that there is some creative thinking going on in Dodger Stadium.

Malone would offered Furcal 6/72 and then called him back a few minutes later to offer him 7/85 and the right to use a private jet, and a VIP pass to Spearmint Rhino.

Sammy Sosa says he is talking to several teams about next year. I can only assume most of them belong to either the Atlantic League or the Japanese League. Regardless, he won't say who he's talking to, because "We're going to make it a surprise." My advice to Colletti: I hate surprises

54/52 -

The Spearmint Rhino pass would have clinched the deal.

Trading Kent brings up some interesting questions/thoughts:

1) That removes our only legit power hitter. We would need to have a 30-homer guy coming back this way (hopefully not Soriano who can't field his way out of a paper bag and refuses to play the outfield).

2) Does trading Kent means that Bradley stays?

3) Kent's value will never be higher. Makes sense to at least listen to what others would give us for him.

52 Who do the Mets have that we would want that they would be willing to give up? No way they'd give up Wright. Do they have any OF prospects that are ready to go? Seo would be a nice addition to the rotation.

Soriano has 30-homer power. But Hardball Times has him listed dead last among second basemen in fielding RAA.

I'm on board and I refuse to get caught up in the 1st/2nd base rumors until further actions take place. What I do know is that the following comments by the media and some posters should be put to pasture.
1. No one wants to play for the Dodgers anymore because the organization is a mess.
2. No one will sign a free agent contract with a team that doesn't have a manager.
3. That Ned Colletti won't be given the payroll necessary to compete.
4. That Ned Colletti is an idiot.

Colletti outwitted the Cubs in a move we would have expected of Depo. Maybe the idea came from someone else from the gang of four but even so he listened, he acted. Sure we overpaid, but SS was a hole and we got the best one in the NL and we got a leadoff hitter in one swoop. It might even be a bad idea in the long run but I'm more comfortable with a GM who does something different then the same ole same ole. The contract will be fully insurable, Furcal won't have the luxory of not performing because 3 years goes fast in the baseball world and he's going to want another huge payoff at age 31. If Hu is really as good as some scouts think he will be more then ready by 2009 to take over for Furcal. If you look at the future it is easy to see the blueprint that Canuck has talked about with the Dodgers able to compete at an elite level with a payroll below 100 million.

I wonder if, when Furcal had his meeting with the Dodgers, he asked, or was told who the manager will be (or will probably be).

Don't know if he cares. Don't know if the Dodgers already have a good idea of who it will be.

Does Furcal have any kind of history with Fregosi. Will that affect Fregosi's position either positively or negatively?

Does Furcal have any kind of history with Fregosi.
Furcal has been a Brave for his whole career.

re: #14

Just wanted to clear this up real quick. I wasn't at all saying on Cub Town that the Cubs are a mid-market club, just that the Dodgers approached the situation like larger market teams can, and for the right player, should. The Cubs didn't, and that's why they lost out.

59
Not sure those comments can be completely put to pasture.

#1: Maybe certain types of players (e.g. guys that have been arrested for DUI, with prostitutes alongside in the car) are less likely to care about the organization being a "mess" than other players.
#2: See #1
#3: The rumors were that Colletti had $18 million to work with. Furcal's signing neither confirms nor denies those rumors.
#4: If the Furcal signing was primarily intended to get Choi out of the lineup, well...

59. Molokai, I will agree that the signing of Furcal is a positive development but as one mistake did not lead me to the 4 comments in your post, one signing does not put them to rest either. Its a start to putting them to rest but still a long way to go. After all, this is one really screwed up franchise. At least we are moving in the right direction.

63 That $18 million number is very interesting. It really is the key to interpret this signing. In the abstract, Neddy overpaid for a good player that we may or may not need.

If the $18 mils number is true, then this is a really dumb deal because there will only be $5 mils left to deal with all the other (more pressing) holes. If the budget is bigger, then this is simply a bit of overindulgence that nets us a good player.

One of the Mets fans says that Colletti disliked Kent from his Giants days and wanted him out.

it was my impression from when colletti was hired that the OPPOSITE was true, and that if anything, it made kent less likely to be traded.

238
From previous topic. Wes Parker led the league in doubles with 47 in 1970. The much maligned Shawn Green hit 49 in 2003 but did not lead the league.

Who is reporting Kent to the Mets...I haven't seen it anywhere except for a couple of Mets posters on the ESPN boards.

I'd love to get rid of Kent to keep Bradley and Choi. I'd like Diaz as part of the package back from the MEts.

Kent's not going to move off 2nd base because he still wants to pad his HoF numbers as a 2nd basemen. Thats the only reason he'll go into the HoF, is because he's a big bat at a generally weak offensive position.

The only way Kent will move off 2nd base is if an impact 2nd basemen (Soriano) is acquired.

And really, if that happened even though I'm a Choi fan, I'd be more than happy with an IF of Mueller, Furcal, Soriano, and Kent.

61 -

I realize Furcal has been a Brave for his entire career and that Fregosi has been a scout with the Braves for the past 3 years. What I don't know is if they have ever had a conversation, hate each other with a passion, are related through marriage, etc.

It may not have made any difference to Furcal in any case. I was just curious as to whether the subject ever came up in the meeting, and what effect, if any, Furcal's signing has on Fregosi's chances of becoming the next manager.

63
A lot posters kept quoting the 75 million or the 18 million to work with. Now both of those may still come true if he sheds Drew or Kent to make other deals. But some posters were saying the payroll was headed into the toilet and I think we can at least agree that is not going to happen.

66
I got the same impression (i.e. that Flanders and Kent were buddies).

I did qualify the rumors about Kent and the Mets by saying that Mets fans have very vivid imaginations.

And are really rude people for the most part.

The infamous $18 million number. If the number is correct, that only gives Ned another $5 million to spend............unless he already has something in the works to move a large salary such as Kent, Lowe, O. Perez? That gives him more money again. Would he spend that money wisely? I have no idea.

I thought I could catch the end of the NCAA women's soccer final between Portland and UCLA to see if the Bruins could pick up a win.

Portland 4, UCLA 0.

OUCH!

It doesn't help that within the span of three days, the Times reported three different payroll figures.

76 -

In the long run Ned is just playing good poker. Why tell people what you are holding in your hand. The less they know, the more likely they'll make a mistake which you can take advantage of.

75
Go Oregon! So UNC lost? I missed that.

I posted this before but the park effects for Dodger stadium changed in 2005 for doubles. It may be a small sample size since it is only one year but they did make changes to the stadium and it is now much easier to hit doubles. The index from 2002-2004 was
Doubles - 78
Triples - 46
HomeRUns - 105

For 2005
Doubles - 99
Triples - 31
HomeRuns - 102

Atlanta was very easy to hit doubles and triples in 2005 but the average is normal.
2005
Doubles - 116
Triples - 141
HomeRuns - 86
2002-2005
Doubles - 96
Triples - 104
HomeRuns - 94

79
I've posted Furcal's poor road splits and poor Dodger Stadium splits. None of this bodes well...

70 - I just threw out the Furcal/Braves bit as starting info. You've added a piece to the puzzle, with the Fregosi-as-Braves-scout stuff. New to me. Then again, I've been following Fregosi's post-Phillie career as closely as I've been following, say, Joe Altobelli's post-Oriole career. That is, not at all. (Until looking up Fregosi's record just now, I had forgotten he managed Toronto for a couple of seasons.)

hate each other with a passion, are related through marriage, etc.
I read this too fast, so "passion" and "marriage" got all mixed up. This is as good a time as any to announce I have a personal "big tent" policy.

78
I didn't realize that people who were Oregon fans included Portland in their sphere of fandom? That would be like USC or UCLA fans including Long Beach State.

UNC lost to Florida State in the quarterfinals. Florida State in turn lost to UCLA, who in turn lost to Portland, who was the #1 seed.

Flanders has repeatedly talked about the need to test some of the younger players the dodgers have. I can easily see the Furcal signing being the first flake to set the dodgers youth movement snowball rolling.

The dodgers don't feel comfortable handing guzman the SS position so they pick up someone who can hold it down until Hu is ready. Trade Kent for a young outfielder and a starting pitcher...maybe Diaz and seo of the MEts. Everywhere you look you have young players, that would be good trade bait once the minor leaguers are ready. With this division, it's entirely feasible to field this team:

Navarro
Choi
Aybar
Furcal
Laroche/Guzman
Diaz (from the mets)
Bradley
Drew
and still possibly win the division. Plus it keeps McCourt in the black.

I really wouldn't mind that.

The same NY Post article that says LoDuca is going to the Mets talks about how the Mets plan to fill second base. Kent is not mentioned. They're said to be looking at Grudzelanek, Lugo, Graffanino, D'Angelo Jimenez, and they had considered Furcal for that position.

LoDuca going to the Mets would mean Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez lose a deep pocketed potential buyer.

83
Well, now that I live in North Carolina, I look favorably upon all Oregon teams (including [gulp]) the Nutria from Cowvalley).

If Bengie Molina and Jason Phillips raced each other in a 100-meter dash, the winner would get to hug his great-grandchild at the end.

Oy! Maybe I'm the only person who gets impatient when I see all this endless speculation based on events that will not happen, but: Unless the players request it, the Dodgers are not trading Kent, and they are not trading Gagne. For a hundred obvious reasons.

Sorry to be grumpy.

Pete Carroll is now blaming the media for influencing Reggie Bush to turn pro.

Kent is an _____, so I doubt he'd be willing to move over to 1B. He wants to pile up the numbers as a 2B. If trading Kent means Lastings Milledge to the Dodgers and Bradley stays, then I would give Ned an A for his offseason work.

Mildly off topic: I've been a Dodger fan since 1977, and I'm a week away from moving to Los Angeles for the first time in my life. I timed the drive from my door to the parking gate at the Ravine, and it will be anywhere from 10 to 25 minutes. I know no one in L.A. uses the Metro, but is there a stop within walking distance of the stadium? And by walking distance, I mean within a 15-20 minute walk. That wouldn't bother me. Like I said, not a native Angeleno.

As for the Furcal signing, it's the first thing the Dodgers have done since the Kent signing that didn't give me indigestion. I don't think any of us are going to be disappointed. He's a serious upgrade over Izturis in both power and OBP, and he's no liability in the field.

Can't wait for Opening Day!

We already all know based on previous posts that Furcal had the best WARP1 in the NL for SS. So here are some other numbers from the Bill James Handbook that should make us happy.

1.WinShares for NL Hitters
Furcal was tied for 10th with 26th, 2 behind Kent and only one behind the esteemed Miguel Cabrerra.

2. Power/Speed Number
Furcal came in 7th behind such great names as Abreu/Bay/Pujols/D Lee/Wright/Utley

3. Furcals win shares over the last four years have been 20 / 25/ 20 /26. JD Drews have been 15 /13 / 31/ 12.
Kent 28/ 20/ 22 /28.

4. In the last 4 years only
Abreu / Beltran / Berkman / Edmonds / Furcal / Giles / Helton / Kent / Pujols / Manny / Arod / Suzuki/ Tejada / have posted wins shares > then 20 every year. You might notice some great players not listed here(Jeter did not make the cut). You might also notice that only Kent/Tejada/Arod were middle infielders with Arod posting his last two years as a corner infielder. We now have the two most consistent middle infielders in baseball in the last 4 years.

91
The big question is whether Furcal's significantly better home splits suggest (1) he hits well at home, wherever home is, or (2) he hits well at Atlanta.

[90] not really, but for friday night games, they've had a shuttle bus that runs from the nearest metro stop to the stadium (union station, i believe). i don't know if this will continue or be expanded in the coming years, though.

90
If your talking the subway the answer is no. You used to be able to take the subway to Union Station and then shuttle to Dodger Stadium but they discontinued that service last year. They might start again.

If your talking normal metro bus service you can use the stop at Sunset & Elysian Park Ave. Metro bus routes 2, 3 & 4 stop at that location. It is about 5-8 minutes from the entrance on Elysian Park to the actual ball park. From Sunset to the entrance I'm not sure how long it is but it is uphill. In the old days you could hop in the back of a pickup and they would take you up the hill but now with the Goverment making sure that we are unable to hurt ourselves except for that pesky gun and drunk driving thing no one will pick you up.

I don't like the Furcal signing on a couple of fronts. I have to assume that the Dodgers don't trust Antonio Perez. That concerns me because I think he is a legitimate major league player. If the Dodger braintrust agrees with me but signed Furcal anyway, then I don't have much confidence in them bringing the kids up from Jacksonville and giving them a full chance to show they belong.

I don't think the Dodgers will go very far in 2006 without a major upgrade for at least two spots in the rotation. Penny and Lowe are major league starters. Add two more and I think the Dodgers have a chance to go further than winning a weak NL West. Furcal is a major league player but I don't consider him a need in the same way I do upgrades to the starting pitching.

I would have spent the Furcal money elsewhere. And I am bothered by the off field stuff on his resume.

Stan from Tacoma

I just read a N.Y. Times magazine piece by Michael Lewis on Texas Tech football coach Mike Leach and how the Red Raiders offense is so different from everyone else in college football and hot Leach doesn't fit the mold of a football coach.

However, Joe Morgan has said that Leach really wrote the piece. Plaschke has said that Leach doesn't understand the heart and soul of college football is running for three yards. Simers has described Leach as "Pass-happy Boy".

It's an interesting piece however. Leach has Texas Tech trying to pass on just about every play and sending out as many receivers as possible and trying to create as much space on the field as possible. He doesn't think that players should be bunched up as much as they are. If you spread out the offense, the defense has to spread out more. This has the benefit of increasing the number of receivers who are in single coverage and more likely to get open. He also believes that with more passing, the clock stops more frequently and that this will tire out the defense more quickly and negate the size disadvantage that his players have.

I know I'm a fool to think I can reliably take public transit anywhere in L.A., but the parking fees tack that extra little something onto a day at the ballpark for a plebe like me. I don't want to have to be like Larry David and pick up a hooker so I can drive in the carpool lane.

Anyway, I'm excited, even if I am going to be wearing a Frank McCourt mask by mid-June. Do you ever have Dodger Thoughts outings to the stadium? We'd be too busy reading printouts from Baseball Prospectus to bother with the beach balls....

The next Michael Lewis piece? A sprinter who doesn't use starting blocks. A tennis player who only hits lobs. Or a high-school basketball coach who wins by only using players under 5'6".

89 Steve Phillips no longer runs the Mets. Minaya will not give up a highly publicized future superstar for one year of a 38-year-old player. If he didn't have to surrender Milledge to get Delgado, he won't do it to get Kent.

Stan is on the money about what the Dodgers need now--pitching. With Furcal, we now can use AP, Aybar and the Tier 2 prospects to upgrade our starting pitching. It also seems like we've got room in the budget for one of: Morris, Byrd, Rogers, any one of whom would be thoroughly professional.

Rogers would fit right in with Furcal and Bradley. We can have a rogues' gallery at Chavez Ravine.

[97] they're not frequent, but sometimes groups form to go to games. we had an Adam Dunn Scouting Expedition last year where several of us went to a reds vs. dodgers game, and that was fun. jon tends to stay away from these things, though, perhaps to retain his aura of mystique :)

Do you ever have Dodger Thoughts outings to the stadium?

So far there's only been one, I forget the exact name, but something along the lines of "The Dodger Thoughts' Adam Dunn Scouting Excursion" (back when there were lots of rumors to trade for Dunn). I was unable to go but quite a few regulars made it.

There is not a freeway with a carpool lane that has an exit by Dodger Stadium. The two freeways that have exits are the Pasadena (110) and the Golden State (5) Freeways. The only freeway with a carpool lane that would take you remotely close to Dodger Stadium would be the San Bernardino Freeway (10) and you would have to be coming from the San Gabriel Valley and if you're going to a Dodger game, you would have to pick up TWO hookers to get to the game because on that road you need three people to drive in the carpool lane during rush hours.

Of course, since Larry David drives a Prius and they can drive in carpool lanes at almost all times, he no longer needs to get outside assistance.

If you're taking public transportation to Dodger Stadium, it will likely cost you $3 for the trip. You can buy an all day pass for all MTA services (bus and rail). The MTA doesn't use transfers anymore. It's a $1.25 per trip.

80 People said the same thing when we signed Kent. Small sample sizes about road parks should never be a warning sign.

As for his home/road splits, since Atlanta's stadium is pretty close to Dodger Stadium in offensive production, it could be just a case of being comfortable in whichever home stadium he occupies. We should only assume progress in Furcal's numbers given his age.

96
Sounds like the Paul Westhead of college football.

I should add that the Harbor Freeway part of the 110 has a carpool lane, but it ends around the Coliseum.

And somehow I doubt that Larry David lives in the part of town that would require him to take the Harbor Freeway to Dodger Stadium.

96 Bob, what stunned me about Leach was his daring on fourth downs.

104
Mike Leach does not have hair that is as weird as Paul Westhead's.

Also, Leach likes to get good defensive players. He doesn't skimp in that department. He looks for speed first and foremost though.

I doubt it as well. I will be coming the other direction on the 110. Maybe I can cut down Los Feliz Blvd. to....ah, but these anal-retentive street surfing thoughts aren't of much interest to anyone else.

Um. Go Blue?

If the choice is:
Option 1:
1B - Choi
2B - Kent
SS - Furcal

Option 2:
1B - Kent
2B - Izturis
SS - Furcal

The difference is Choi vs. Izturis in the line-up, and Choi and Kent's defense for Izturis and Kent's defense. Kent has a career Rate2 of 87 as a 1B and 98 as a 2B (95 last year) so getting Izturis at 2B isn't that much of a defense boost.

Wouldn't Ned have to be an absolute moron to think that Izturis is a better hitter than Choi? It's not like Izturis hits for THAT high an average. Ned must understand the relevancy of walks and power. Smith, Ng, and probably White must value Choi somewhat.

The more I think about it (the way I think about it), Izturis is the odd man out in this signing. Of course Ned could see it differently.

106
Coaches should go for it more on fourth down. And Mr. Lederer, I thought USC going for it on fourth and 10 from the UCLA 32 when up by a big margin was a perfectly sensible play.

The prep game I covered Friday had this situation. Dorsey led Crenshaw 7-0 with about a minute left in the first half. Crenshaw had a fourth and 1 at its own 10. Dorsey had just called its last timeout. It was raining. Crenshaw had an adequate punter and Dorsey's best player was injured.

Crenshaw opted to go for it and made it and had a 1st and 10 from its own 12. On the next play, Crenshaw completed a 40-yard pass. After an incompletion, Crenshaw then completed a 48-yard TD pass with 1 second left in the half. They went for two and led 8-7 at the half.

I don't think I'd seen anything like that at any level of football.

Has this been mentioned before:
JD Drew
104
135
109
135
100
145
72
Those are games played per year starting in 1999. Does this mean we are looking for 135 games or more in 2006 since it is an even year. A 135 games of Drew would be the best thing that could happen to the team. Given the state of his shoulder I just can't get optimistic about him but I hope to be proven very wrong.

109
I think most of us are hoping that Izturis (not Choi) is the odd man out.

108

There are a lot of street geeks here and people who obsessa about ingress and egress from Dodger Stadium. Muse away! Jon has written about the topic a lot.

You can't take Scott Road into the stadium anymore. The neighborhood had it closed off on game days.

104 107 Last year, I saw a lot of Paul Westhead and the Orlando Magic. It was a classic Moneyball situation, where failure to look beyond surface numbers was a killer.
Because the Magic ran, their points per game numbers looked good while their points surrendered didn't. Therefore, everyone complained about the defense. "We can't get any stops."
Going off John Hollinger's work, I tried to convince people the defense was OK if not better. (Credit goes to a front line of Dwight Howard and Kelvin Cato.) However, the offense was the problem - as to be expected when Steve Francis is your PG. Orlando committed too many turnovers and didn't shoot well, but the run-and-gun pace masked those problems.

This is the greatest story ever...
DDP (Diamond Dallas Page) is suing Jay-Z for using the Diamond Cutter symbol in various videos and on various album covers.

Although there could be some shuffling around because of yesterday's games, Texas Tech had the 26th best defense in the country this year in terms of yardage.

However, Texas Tech played some pretty weak nonconference teams. They did give up 52 points to Texas. They also lost to Olkahoma State for some reason.

113 - Before I moved, I took the 5 South to the Stadium, then took the 2 South/West until it ended. Scott Ave is still a great route to avoid any Stadium Way or Sunset Blvd traffic, since you can turn left into the park just outside and shortcut the traffic, if there is any.

Scott Ave is still open, just the Stadium gate is closed.

A couple trade ideas:
Trade Kent (don't know where)
Trade Izturis (when he comes back) and Navarro for BJ Upton. Upton can be our starting CF/2B next year.

After trading Kent, the Dodgers can sign Nomar to play 3B.

C Navarro
1B Choi
2B Aybar
SS Furcal
3B Nomar
LF Cruz
CF Bradley
RF Drew

113
You can't take Scott Road into the stadium anymore but you can still take Scott road to Elysian Park blvd, then turn right and either park right on the street and do a 10 minute walk to the stadium or go up to the next stadium entrance which can't be more then 1/2 a mile from the Scott Road/Elysian Park intersection. I always park on the street not so much for being cheap(part of it) but because I hate getting stuck in the traffic. I'd rather walk the extra 5 minutes then spend the 30 minutes in the parking lot evading drunks. Warning if you park on the street make sure your tags are up to date. The police constantly do sweeps of the cars parked outside of the stadium.

If you are coming from the north, Altadena say, 110 south to Academy Road and a quick left into the stadium is the best way. 25 minutes from doorstep to seat for me.

#99 dzzrt, I like Aybar and think he should be given the chance to be the Dodger third baseman. I don't think he is going to fetch a major league pitcher if he is traded. Ditto for Antonio Perez. Pitching is in short supply. If Loiza goes for 7 million per to a team that does not like to pay high salaries, I wonder what Millwood and Burnett will sign for.

Stan from Tacoma

Aside from Kent, Izturis also probably has the highest trade value. Out of him, Aybar, and AP. He's the all-star with the gold glove, aftrall.

118
We need to get used to the idea that TB is no longer run by fools. They won't be trading BJ but if they are I'd be all over it for him to be our CF. I'd even trade Billingsly for him.
Navarro wouldn't even sniff the surface for BJ.

However you can't move to South Pasadena, Pasadena, or Altadena.

It's full.

We're not accepting new applicants.

124 Tell that to Rick Caruso

123- if they don't think BJ can play SS then they might be willing to trade him. I read that the Braves may be willing to part with Andy Marte, so the Devil Rays wouldn't have any room for BJ. They would get an excellent defensive SS (who is pretty young and cheap) and a young catcher that they'd have under control for 5 years. I think it makes sense for both sides.

I'd also be willing to add anyone on the farm not named DeWitt, Martin, Billingsley, Guzman, LaRoche, Elbert, and Kemp

According to gilmiguel, Licey is talking to Lasorda about a Dodger prospect pitching for them? Isn't Acta the current manager for Licey?

Maybe Acta is the Dodgers next manager. If Acta is the next manager, I suspect Kent is gone.

It's a lot of money to pay Furcal, but hey, it's not MY money. With such a thin free-agent crop, I'd rather overpay for one of the few difference-makers than spread out our money for a collection of mediocrities. Hopefully, having Furcal at SS will give us the balls to stay out of the Bill Mueller/Joe Randa/Nomar sweepstakes and go into spring training with an open competition at 3B between Guzman, LaRoche, Aybar and Perez. That would sure be fun. We'll see how things work out.

As for Izturis, he's not due back until July and is coming back from Tommy John surgery which leaves things a bit of a mystery as his only real value is defensive. I wouldn't count on getting much from him in 2006. If he comes back looking strong, it'll be a nice problem to have. But I'm not holding my breath and dont' look at him as anything more than depth/backup infield help/trade bait for 2006.

We've still got some trade chits and could use, at least, another mid-rotation starter.

128 -

What leads you to the Acta-Kent conclusion?

There is not a minor league prospect in the Dodger organization that I would not trade even up for BJ Upton to be our CF. In two years he would be the best CF in the NL. When Jim Callis talked to our group in Arizona he said that he couldn't put Upton on his list of prospects to make an impact in 2006 because of the at bats he's already gotten in the Major Leagues but that if he did he would have been numero uno. Deric said the same thing and so did the scout from Toronto. HIs offensive ceiling with his speed/power/plate discipline is higher then anyone's.

It seems as if the Indians have signed Paul Byrd for 2 years, $14.25 mil, with a $8 mil option. He apparently turned down the Royals' 3 year offer

With the scarcity of starting pitching and relievers and middle infielders getting so much money, maybe Derek Lowe will be a "relative bargain" for the remainder of his contract.

i'd give up kent if it meant getting back milledge. that being said, i don't see a kent trade unless we are buried at the all-star break . . .

In case anyone's keeping score: Count me among those (few?) who are very happy about this signing. One of the Dodgers biggest debits last year was lack of a leadoff hitter. This takes care of that and the fact that Izzy will be gone til at least July if not longer. The Dodgers will happily cross that bridge - when he returns. Overpaid, yes. Not as badly as Farnsworth was overpaid (as someone who only plays one inning every 2 games vs. someone who will play every day). Give us one more starter and some OF depth and I think the Dodgers will automatically be competitive in the mild mild west if not even better than that.

Meanwhile, off the subject, but as a Broncos fan in SF, I can't tell you how bummed I am about the ridiculous rule that a team's home city can only air that game (in this case Cardinals-49ers, woo hoo) and the opposing network, CBS can't show the Broncos Chiefs game against it. Instead it's an infomercial. Sigh.

Or, "What KLV said." (Just read that.) ;-)

135 When you say the Dodgers didn't have a lead off hitter, what exactly do you mean by that?

132 According to the Times, that was about what the Angels were offering Byrd, though I don't know the amount of their option. Apparently Byrd wanted to play closer to his home in Atlanta, and I guess Cleveland is a bit closer.

I meant to say, they didn't have a good consistent lead off hitter most of the year. At the very beginning, Izzy was decent, and at the very end, Aybar did a good job there - got very hot when their season for all intents and purposes was over - but overall not one of their strong suits. Didn't mean they literally didn't have a leadoff hitter (but sometimes you could have fooled me).

c

135,137,139

What is it about Furcal that makes him a good leadoff hitter?

FYI:
Peter Gammons Baseball Insider:
"Look for new Dodgers GM Ned Colletti to build that club around Jeff Kent and Eric Gagne. Colletti has never forgotten how Kent left his blood and soul on the field throughout his career."
"Colletti is expected to take on the White Sox and Twins as a major player for Mueller. "

If he left his blood and soul on the field does he have any left?

I always find Gammons entertaining but rarely accurate.

141
I think Kent left his heart in San Francisco.

140 From the LA Times article: "In addition to solidifying the infield, Furcal would give the Dodgers one of the best leadoff batters in baseball. He has averaged 107 runs the last four seasons and had stolen 189 bases with a 78% success rate. His lifetime on-base percentage is .348."

Who do the Mets have that we would want that they would be willing to give up?

the mets do have some young talent i am interested in.

lastings milledge
xavier nady
gaby hernandez
aaron heilman

i would shoot for the jewel in milledge but nady+heilman would be cool as well.

we trade for BJ, and when justin upton re enters next years draft and falls to the dodgers because of money concerns, we will rule the world with the uptons!!

143 Okay, rewording the question. What makes a good leadoff hitter? Would Furcal not be a good hitter if he hit, say, sixth.

143
Hmmmm...if I'm not mistaken, the Sabremetric response would be:
1. Scoring runs is not a "skill", but rather the result of getting on base and then being driven in by other players.
2. An 80% success rate is the cutoff for stolen bases being a "good" idea vs. a "bad" idea.
3. An OBP of .348 isn't really that great, is it?

dear gammons, why would we build our team around kent and gagne... two players in the last yr of their contracts?

140
Stolen base % > then 80% over the last 3 years. Led league with 93% in 2003 while never stealing less then 25 bases over the last 4 years.
Don't have to waste sacrifice bunts from your 2nd place hitter if your manager is so inclined when you have that kind of success. Base hit, sb, ground out, SF, 1 - 0. Or in the case of Roberts and Milton 3 - 0

Scored an average of 100 runs over the last 4 years.

Averaged 60 walks over the last 3 years
OBP has been as high as 394 but he seems to have settled in at 345-353 range.

He's no Rickey Henderson but he will do just fine.

well, in my mind, a hitter who has excellent plate discipline and a high on-base percentage; sees a lot of pitches per plate appearance; and steals bases well and with a high success rate; but probably does not have a lot of home run power, makes a good candidate to be the leadoff guy.

Not sure if this has been covered yet, have not read all the posts today but here is something that has me concerned. All the talk has been that the Furcal signing has bought Choi a few months tryout while Izturis is recuperating but what if that is not the case? If the Dodgers do end up signing a Randa/Mueller type for third is it possible that a Aybar/Perez platoon just moves across the diamond to 2B? I hope that is not the case as it would diminish Kent's value, but then Coletti could say he fixed one more problem by getting a "slugging firstbaseman" The brain trust thinking could be find a third baseman and then have Aybar/Perz holdl second until Cesar is back. I hope not, but from last year it appears the Dodgers have little faith in Choi.

wait, is this kent to the mets a real rumor!?!?

millledge come to LA!!

If your a station to station runner an OBP of 350 is no big deal as it will take alot to score you. If your a speedster who can post a 350 OBP your value goes up because many things can happen that can't happen for Jason Varitek. 350 is nothing to sneeze at and Furcal has been very consistent. His BA has been between 279-292 and his OB% between 344-352 over the last 3 years.
1. You can steal 2nd and score on a single. Varitek would be at 2nd base.
2. You can score on a double from 1st base. Varitek would be at 3b.
3. You can go 1st to 3rd on a single to RF, Varitek Stairs will chug into 2nd.

Not to mention the constant attention that players like Fucal get, once they are on base. The number of throws to 1st, the concentration on the runner instead of the hitter. To think that players like Furcal don't have an impact because they don't post 375OBP I think is missing the big picture of what happens in a baseball game.

152
No

153
Thanks, although your choice of Jasons may have been more appropriate had it included Phillips rather than Varitek...

I remember some stats guy studying baserunning found that Furcal was one of the best baserunners in baseball (SBs, SB%, taking extra bases, not getting thrown out).

If we get Milledge I will cry with happiness. (I know he is just a prospect, I do not care)

why would any dodger fan want soriano?

158
He can speak Japanese.

159
So can Kaz Ishii.

This discusses Furcal's baserunning skills a few years ago, but supports the idea that he is one of the best baserunners in baseball:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/looking_forward/discussion/fraser0402040/

If Justin Upton somehow was back in the draft and we got him, I would have tears of joy.

We could tell Soriano to play first base or left field.

153
Philips doesn't have the OBP that Varitek does to even belong in the discussion. Base bloggers who can't even get on base and have no power have no business playing baseball in Los Angeles. Ishi sucked but that ended up being a deal that also ranks as a bad Depo move in the end. We would have been better off sticking Ishi in the bullpen and keeping David Ross for all the harm Philips ended up causing us.

While I would love to see Kent shipped off to the Mets or Beantown, i don't think there is any chance of getting a prospect like Milledge in return. I'd be happy getting Victor Diaz and a back of the rotation starter from the Mets. I've liked Diaz since he was traded away...was it for Burnitz or Ventura? The line on him was that he could mash, but he had no position. Well, he can still mash, and we could stick him in left where he couldn't hurt us too much, especially if Bradley is in center.

We could tell Soriano to play first base or left field.

that doesnt mask the fact that he still sucks. :)

164
Ah. I hadn't considered the OBP aspect. I just thought you were using Varitek as an example of a prototypical slow guy.

i dont think milledge is a possibility either but where is he going to play in NY? beltrans there for like 6 more years..

Here's more evidence of Furcal's baserunning prowess. This time for 2004:

http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2005/02/2004-baserunning-framework.html

But he does not suck as much as whoever the hell our left fielder is (I guess Ledee). I am not the biggest Soriano fan in the world, but if we got him I could deal with it as long as he did not play second base.

Rosenthal is saying that the Cubs could go after Burnett now that they lost out on Furcal. Not sure if it's his guess or something he heard. How many Cubs fans would prefer Burnett at SS over Neifi?

171-
They should look into if Jason Marquis can play short.

trade deadline deal..

izturis and gagne for zambrano!

optimism runs thick through my blood.

164 Philips playing 1B is on Tracy not Depo.

Hahaha is it me or every dream deal we want involves us ripping off the Cubs or Mets (which makes them somewhat plausible).

169 It's interesting that the article mentions that the difference between the best and the worst is 30-40 bases. Consequently, I have to question how much of an improvement Furcal is over Antonio Perez, 10-15 bases max?

[171] hah i can imagine burnett going to the cubs for like 6/$66 mill and then tearing a labrum or something after a season and a half of dusty's abuse.

176
I think Perez' OBP was around .360 last year.

173 I'm sure the Mets would jump at that deal =)

173- no, I want Upton!

Izturis, Navarro, Broxton for Upton

With the Mets, no Milledge, no deal

Boston might have some interest in Kent. They don't really have much to trade.

Kent for Coco Crisp?
Kent for Jake Westbrook?
Kent and Guzman for Zito (with a contract extension)? Would you do this one nate?
Kent for Curtis Granderson?
Kent for Jeremy Reed?
Kent for Anthony Reyes and Ray King (Ned's been looking for a LOOGY)?

Ok, that's enough.

178 I just meant from a pure base running standpoint.

Is it possible that Colletti knows something about Perez's injury that we don't? Especially considering we know almost nothing

i dont think beane would do a kent+guzman for zito. he wants long term pieces for zito.

Izturis, Navarro, Broxton for Upton

thats a pretty sexy deal :)

181
I wasn't contradicting you, just keeping with your theme of "Furcal isn't that much better than Perez."

173-
That trade may change my mind about keeping Gagne. Zambrano's a horse; he is definitely underrated in Chicago.

let perez play a full season before annointing that. his second half splits were horrible, an indication pitchers were starting to figure him out. and for not a power hitter, he struck out 22%+ of the time. his defense also leaves a lot to be desired for.

personally, aybar and perez should be trade bait. their value would not be any hire then now and neiher really fit into our long term plans.

hire=higher.

186 Agreed.

[186] i've heard conflicting reports of perez' defense, especially at SS. what's the deal?

Let me drop a name from the Hall of Young Dodger Loved by Fans After Three Solid Months: Roger Cedeño. Entering the '98 season, I was ready to anoint him CF of the future

flanders should be ready to sell high on perez and aybar this winter meetings.

I was just on eBay buying doll furniture for my niece (yeah, my niece, that's a good cover story).

Someone is selling four mid field seats for the Rose Bowl for $900 apiece.

Another auction is up to $6100 for a set of four.

Cedeno's line in 1997: 273/362/392 in 227 PAs.
Perez's line in 2005: 297/360/398 in 287 PAs.

re 193

yet anothe reason to sell high on perez.

186 He did seem to do a lot better when he got regular play time, like a certain first baseman.

He basically disappeared at the end, recieving 70 at bats in the last two months.

some speculation from a mets thread on primer:

No details on what they are dealing but it is something that has been worked on and actually got the Mets to back out of the Furcal chase so LA could finish the deal. On the Mets backing out of Furcal... from what I understand early on the Mets were very in on Furcal and made a preliminary offer. Once the Dodgers new faction came into play (Colletti and Co.) Omar sent out feelers for Kent, as he did while Depodesta was there, and Colletti make Kent available. Speculation on the source's part has the rift going back to Colletti being in the "deal Kent" camp after the Bonds altercation when Colletti was in fact Sabean's top assistant. He has seen enough of his club house troubles and had dealing Kent in the immediate plans. Sources beyond mine such as rotoworld are reporting that the Dodgers are seeking first base options which only further cements my confidence in my source and the fact that Kent is close to the Mets in a deal and certainly not in the plans of the LA Dodgers moving forward.

196
Well, I like the "Kent is close to the Mets in a deal" part, but not the "Dodgers are seeking first base options" part.

Wouldn't the Dodgers then be seeking second base options?

nate, I hope you live in LA because someone is going to need to pickup Milledge at LAX.

[196] that level of intrigue almost approaches international politics.

if anything, heilman needs to be in on a kent deal. once he dropped his arm angle, his stuff got way nastier.

198
Maybe they're planning on moving Choi to 2B...

nate, I hope you live in LA because someone is going to need to pickup Milledge at LAX

i would drive from tucson to LAX and pick up milledge from the airport. then i would join furcal and lowe in their bars/stripper fun. afterwards, ill stop home in OC for a respite before returning back to school to take finals.

[201] yeah, we should pick him up for sure then. i wouldn't want choi to have to sit on the bench someday against the mets :)

198 - Maybe the plan is to make AP or Aybar the regular 2nd basemen (or make one 2B and one 3B).

If the plan is to trade Kent, Choi's future is again uncertain. Ideally the Dodgers would get an SP or perhaps an OF, since those are obviously higher needs. Ugh. I guess we'll see.

So was Colletti's "I'd want 5 Jeff Kents" comment (or whatever it was) really just a kiss of death?

205
So was Colletti's "I'd want 5 Jeff Kents" comment (or whatever it was) really just a kiss of death?

Kinda like Depo's "We're not trying to trade Shawn Green" claim.

heilman's 2005 g/f ratio: 1.52
heilmans's 2005 krate: 8.83

more balls for the furcal vaccum to scoop up.

If that source on primer is true, that could mean bad bad things for Choi.... but who is the Mets 1B? (ie, who would they offer us for Kent?) Woodward? Piazza?!

They better get an SP. Heilman sounds real good... only based on what has been said.

Repeat after me: "There is no hole at 1st base. There is no hole at 1st base."

198 I'm all in favor of playing the kids, but leaning on so many young players at once worries me. You can survive if one implodes, but if it's a lineup-wide problem... I'd rather not go into '06 saying, "We need Navarro AND Perez AND Aybar to take steps forward if we're to compete."

Loduca is now officially a Met. Now they need Kent.

It's official, the bowl matchup everyone has been calling for:

UCLA vs. Northwestern in the Sun Bowl on Dec. 30.

Two of the best offenses and worst defenses in the country matchup.

For the rest of our Pac-10 fans here:

Cal takes on BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl on 12/22

Arizona State plays Rutgers in the Insight Bowl on 12/27

Oregon plays Oklahoma in the Holiday Bowl on 12/29

And then there's the Rose Bowl on January 4 matching up the conservative school in the liberal state against the liberal school in the conservative state.

mets 1b is delgado...

wow scary mets lineup

wright
delgado
kent
floyd

thats pretty nice.

Loduca is now officially a Met. Now they need Kent.

whod they trade?

omar is going for it this year.

I know it's Delgado. But they're not giving us Delgado for Kent. My point was, if we get a 1B from the Mets for Kent, it's not going to be a good one.

Gaby Hernandez and a pitcher TBNL

Could it be that randa's name came up because of his 3 year splits vs lefthanders
305/355/460/815 as a platoon partner with choi.
By the way mueller hits righthanders better than lefthanders so he wouldn't be a good platoon partner with choi.

Loduca a Met

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/breaking_news/story/371588p-316146c.html

Arizona State plays Rutgers in the Insight Bowl on 12/27
Go Devils! I may show up - BOB, er, Chase Field is only a 25-minute drive from home.

oh wow they traded gaby hernandez for lo duca!?!?!?

hahaha. come on flanders, now is the time to swoop in for the kill. milledge+heilman, omar's on drugs!

216
not that i'm in favor of signing randa.

211
10-1 Oregon vs. 7-4 Oklahoma. Makes sense. I'd like to see a team (such as Oregon) turn down a bowl bid in that kinda situation.

I really do not see Flanders trading Kent until midseason if we are out of it. I am going to believe him when he says he wishes he had nine Jeff Kents out there. Of course it's a brand new ballgame if Kent has said he wants out.

I want the Mets to give us Ambiorix Concepcion so the Dodgers can have one of the two major leaguers named Ambiorix. There's an Ambiorix Burgos on the Royals.

okay fine bob, milledge+heilman+ ambiorix concepcion.

Trading Kent and signing Furcal can only mean good news for Bradley, right?

I guess the Mets do not care to have a farm system.

After Giles went away, Colleti probably put a hard-court press on Kent to convince him that Bradley needed to stay. That, combined with Kent's hypothetical shift to 1B may be all the grouch needed to demand a trade.

Paulie could collapse hard this year. He'll be 34 in June.
OPS+, beginning in 2001:
144
100
92
99 (100 w/LA; 82 w/FLA)
92

Trading Kent and signing Furcal can only mean good news for Bradley, right?

well if i am picking up milledge from LAX, then not good news for bradley for the long term...

228 In '04, change his Dodgers OPS+ to 109.

Milledge and Bradley have history?

Normally the Holiday Bowl gets a better matchup with the third best Big XII team. But being the third best Big XII team this year didn't mean much.

The second best team in that conference, the Michael Lewises of Texas Tech are in the Cotton Bowl playing Alabama.

UCLA vs. Northwestern will be a lot of fun to watch. Lots of scoring by both sides. UCLA should be favored although they have played very poorly in bowl games recently.

221 The Ducks drew the short straw in this year's BCS doings.

231 - Nevermind. I must have had a brain spasm or something.

Soon enough Furcal will be making more money a year than the Marlins' entire pay roll.

Speaking of splits, antonio perez 3 year splits vs lefthanders 275/385/373/758 in only 142 at bats, gotta like that obp.

Milledge and Bradley have history?

no, but milledge plays CF and so does bradley...

and milledge isnt an emotional freak like bradley.

237 - Yeah I just remembered in 234. Ah well.

We can at least let Bradley get his value back up. Then trade him.

Just keep Choi! Ahhhh.

Am I the only one that can't get anything done waiting for the next shoe to drop this offseason? I need to move to a country where there is no baseball so that I can actually do something with my life. I hear Kazakstan is nice.

seriously, gaby hernandez is a FINE pitching prospect. hes the 2nd best prospect the mets have since they traded petit.

so if gaby is worth lo duca to omar, then kent HAS to be worth milledge to omar because kent 10x better than lo duca.

239 - Yeah. Me, too. If DePo were at the helm I'd have some peace of mind. I have SOME confidence in the Gang of 4... but not in their 1B assessment.

239-
Just don't bring up Borat.

I wonder if Omar realizes Lo Duca is not hispanic?

First pundit to guarantee that this wins the Mets the pennant gets a special commemmorative edition 2004 NL East Champion Florida Marlins T-Shirt.

233
Yep, the Ducks got shafted. It's pretty silly that the #7 BCS team and the #23 BCS team receive the same reward for their respective seasons.

Just don't bring up Borat

borat is amazing. easily the best character on that show.

"it goes, God, man, horse, dog,.....woman, rodent"

LOLLOL

[233] [seethe]of course they drew the short straw, they're in the pac-10.[/seethe]

244 - You mean after they trade for Kent?

244
I think the pundits are waiting to see if the Mets also acquire Kent, whose negative chemistry would offset Lo Duca's positive.

By the way, that trade might be worse than Kazmir for Zambrano.

240- Why do they need Milledge anyways? If they aren't getting Manny then trading Milledge would make sense because they have Beltran locked in for 6 more years.

If Ned can net us Milledge AND Bossman Jr, then I will be VERY VERY happy.

Just don't bring up Borat.
LOL

I've got my Philadelphia Phillies 2003 NL East t-shirt on.

As for Oregon and Oklahoma, it will be the battle of OUs! That should be a fun crowd as both teams have pretty dedicated fans.

Oklahoma fans wear plastic hats in the shapes of the "Sooner Schooner" which are a fashion statement that doesn't need to be made.

I think the Suns should play the Marlins in a best of seven series.

Now that I think about it.
[Homer]Mmmmm. Milledge and Heilman. -drrrooooollll-[/Homer]

If we keep choi at 1b, who is going to platoon with him?
Are we seriously thinking about kent at 1b vs lefthanders?

my mind is on milledge+heilman. a platoon partner for choi is not something im focusing on!

255 - Finding somebody that hits left-handed pitching and plays first base isn't that hard. But I think Choi will be servicable against lefties if given the chance.

[255] nobody, i hope. i'd rather find a SP and a 3B

Nate, is Brad Johnson your hero?

the mets current farm system consists of milledge, TJ surgery humber, unsigned pelfrey, #5 starter at best brian bannister, and dominican bonus baby something Martinez. i forgot his first name.

252
Technically, Oregon goes by "UO" (or more accurately, UofO)

I am soooooooooo glad I had to actually look up that Borat reference. I'm not piddling my life away as much as a I thought.

Nate, is Brad Johnson your hero?

the vikes indeed have made me a pretty happy person. Brad johnson has played very well. but i am attributing the 5 game win streak to our defense.

last 5 games, 14 sacks, 12 INTs, and about a gazillion turnovers.

skol vikes!

Trade Kent for Milledge and Heilman.
Sign Nomar/Mueller/Randa/whoever to play 3B.
Give Aybar/Perez the 2nd base job.
Give Choi the 1st base job.
Keep Bradley.

We'll still be short on outfield depth, so we could use another Ledee-like OF. But we'd improve the pitching, get a great OF prospect, field a team that can win the West in 2006, and we won't lose any prospects.

261

Regardless, the Holiday Bowl should look in to getting Overstock.com as a sponsor this year.

there was talk of this a while back, but it has died out. Is Brad Wilkerson still a guy the dodgers should target given that any of the Cincy 4 have a high price-tag attached to them?

Chicago Tribune is citing sources saying this deal is done... I do not buy it in the least as Mark Ellis is horribly underrated and is cheap, but I will post it for fun.

A's would get Soriano and prospect
Texas would get Wood, Walker, and cash
Cubs would get Zito and Mench

244 Steve

Only if they sign Al Leiter.

264 - I like it. And if you absolutely MUST trade Bradley, I think the A's would give Juan Cruz and Jay Payton.

Unless that prospect is Pie and the A's can DH Soriano

208 fanerman
Repeat after me: "There is no hole at 1st base. There is no hole at 1st base.

Are you in Kanas?

264- add Bossman Jr (at the trading deadline) for Izturis, Navarro and Broxton and Ned gets an A+

I know he is old but free agent julio franco made 1 million salary last year and his 3 year split vs lefthanders is 307/390/454/844 but last year alone vs lefthanders is 271/365/449/814.
For 1-1.5 million 1 year contract wouldn't be a bad idea to partner with choi.

271 - Not in Kansas anymore.

If the A's want Bradley I ask for Either.

Hahaha I was just at minorleagueball.com. How nice of you Nate to ease that distressed Mets fan's nerves with your Milledge and Heilman for Kent talk. lol Where are these strong rumors coming from?

267 Where are they reporting this? I don't see it on the Tribune website. I can't see why Beane would do that, and the Cubs get way too much

My question is, what did the Mets do in a previous life to get David Wright? They don't deserve David Wright.

277-
A's fans were posting it and I finally read the link and it is just speculation, I knew it was complete garbage. I still say Zito stays unless Beane gets blown away by a deal.

I don't see how Mets fans are griping about the Loduca deal. Hernandez may have put up good secondary numbers in A ball as a 19 year-old, but the numbers were in A ball, and he's 19. There are far too many things that can go wrong with a young pitcher in the time it would take him to reach the majors from A ball. Plus, remember when Jonathon Figueroa put up great numbers in A-ball? That's right, Jonathon who?

280

That is also why I would be perfectly happy for the dodgers to package Tiffany in a deal for an outfielder or a starter.

I think the gripe is that they are giving up their best pitching prospect for a catcher on the other side of 30 earning 6.25 mill when could have just signed a younger R Hernandez for 7 mill and kept the prospect.

.290 .322 .450 .772
.283 .334 .380 .714

Yeah the trend is down. He might have been better served getting dealt to Arizona which could mask the slide. To bad for LaDuca that he's only played in pitchers parks.
Piazza should just sign with Colorado and go out with a blast.

That's true. LoDuca in Shea is worth Izturis-y numbers. Interestingly enough, LoDuca's career at Shea is something like a .550 OPS. Not that 75 at-bats means anything. Right? Right?

284,285
Regardless of Lo Duca's decline, I hope the "Mets getting good ex-Dodger catchers (e.g. Piazza, Lo Duca) and Dodgers getting bad ex-Mets catchers (e.g. Phillips)" doesn't become a trend.

Jon Weisman,

Even if Drew has a big year in 2006, I doubt any baseball exec (save perhaps Omar Minaya) will think him a bargain.

Because of his injuries, Drew was all but an $11 million flush in 2005.

Given his fragility and the number of surgeries (2, 3?) Drew had this year, it's hard to project him as a bargain beyond 2006, even if he has great year, because he's still guaranteed $33 million from 2007-09.

As for DeShields/,Furcal comparisons, maybe, but I say it's a bit unlikely for Furcal to crater the way DD did.

Like Mark Grudz. a few years later, DeShields hit a million doubles across the carpet at Olympic Stadium and other carpeted venues.

Furcal isn't an Astroturf wonder.

284 -- By the way, yeah, but that top line isn't LoDuca's numbers, it's Ramon Hernandez's numbers. As for LoDuca, his OPS the last four years has been:

.731
.712
Whatever the combination of .795 and .690 is
.714

The trend line isn't going down. It's flat. The myth of Paul LoDuca is just that. Myth. They robbed him of the All-Star appearance in 2001, and they've spent the rest of his career making it up to him. Not to mention his stellar reputation for being Mr. September.

Concerns about an Izturis/Furcal logjam are overblown.

Izturis isn't due back before July and even that's far from a sure thing. It's an unusual surgery for a SS. And by July, nine other LAD could be hurt, including Kent and Furcal, who had evolving knee and shoulder soreness this year and given his impending free agency probably would've played with a bullet in his leg.

If Izzy is ready in July, that's only good. Bona fide SS are rare. The LAD would have two of them.

Overall, the LAD overpaid for a shortstop/leadoff man seemingly in his prime.

Given the dearth of bona fide shortstops/leadoff men, it's a palatable overpay, although I find the DUIs troublesome.

The LAD do NOT have an advanced SS in their system. Their own evaluators doubt that Joel Guzman projects at major league SS. He's more of a RF/1B.

As for Hu, this gives him time to evolve and the scouts are more mixed on him than some of the posts here suggest. He's at least three years away from being major league ready.

287 - First of all, you're taking what I said out of context. I said Drew would be a bargain compared to Furcal.

I think if Drew has a big year, as you put it, and makes less money doing so than Furcal, it would follow that he will be a bargain compared to Furcal.

Drew had half an excellent season in 2005. So let's say he was a $6 million flush in 2005.

286-
Hundley...

291
Ugh, how did I forget? Yes, he definitely belongs on the list. Maybe it is a trend...

According to a poster on dodgers.com, furcal will make 9 mill in 06, 13 mill in 07 and 08 and a final 4 mill payment after the 08 season.
I don't know what 4 million less in 06 will do for acquiring players.

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=ml-dodgers&msg=55525.1&ctx=0

293 Back loading contracts is supposedly Neddy's MO.

295 -- Icky

Furcal makes one real major league shortstop. Who's the other one?

296 - Antonio Perez?

295-
He must be a Raider fan.

I must admit, I'm not the biggest fan of deferred money. We will now essentially be paying Furcal $17 mil in the 3rd year, only he gets $4 mil of it as a parting gift in January. This could explain why Colletti said we had enough to get both Furcal and Giles, as Giles' proposed contract was likely backloaded as well. Then if Kent gets traded, we essentially just replaced him with Furcal =/

299
Doesn't that depend on what we got in return for Kent?

102 - But they honor transfers from other transportation agencies (Big Blue Bus, Culver City Transit). Also, both of those agencies do NOT honor MTA's day pass.

300 I suppose. I guess my logic depended on contracts, how about we just disregard the last sentence

Wow, the BCS rankings were updated since a few hours ago and Oregon is now at 5, up from 8. Not only does the #5 team NOT get a BCS bowl, but the #11 and #22 teams DO get BCS bowls. That's BS.

BCS Bowls
#1 vs #2
#3 vs #22
#7 vs #11
#4 vs #6

You guys are talking about the trade of Kent as if it's already a done deal--and criticizing Colletti for having done it.

Is this an outgrowth of too much rotisserie?

Haha yeah I still have not seen one really reputable source saying anything about Kent to the Mets.

DP4-i'm a duck alum, and even though we got screwed, our best win this year was against fresno state. arizona st. is a close second. hard to be surprised when it's a 100% bogus system to begin with . . .

306
What year did you graduate?

306, 7-
Beavers!

308
See #85

for some reason i just don't like oregon state. after stanford, i'd say they are my least favorite school in the pac-10.

304. i would think much higher of Colletti if he traded Kent to the mets for prospects, especially since it would include Milledge. When Colletti was hired everyone thought Colletti would trade prospects for a bunch of guys in their late-30's, this would be the exact opposite of that. As for replacing Kent with Furcal, furcal had a higher WARP and more win shares than Kent in 2005, and Furcal is a decade younger. That seems like a nice trade-off, especially when you throw in Milledge(or another prospect). Remember that, at his age, Kent could collapse ala Roberto Alomar. Plus, trading with the Mets always turns out well for the other team.

304 -- Too much Colletti, I'd expect.

311
Remember that, at his age, Kent could collapse ala Roberto Alomar.

Plus, it seems like Kent is "due" for a serious injury.

From the Providence (RI) Journal today:

"Jody Reed turning down a three-year, $7.8-million contract offer from the Dodgers after the 1993 season is regarded in baseball circles as the ultimate blunder in player negotiations. Reed bounced around the majors for four seasons after leaving Los Angeles and earned a grand total of $2.875 million over the rest of his career -- just about $5 million less than he would have made had he stayed in Los Angeles. (Red Sox fans should delight in Reed's misstep. To replace him, the Dodgers traded for Montreal's Delino DeShields. The player they traded? Pedro Martinez, whom the poverty-stricken Expos couldn't afford to keep when he reached superstar status and thus wound up in Boston.)

"The question, though, is whether or not Garciaparra committed a similar gaffe (or two) in his dealings with the Red Sox."

Here's the whole article. Makes you want to give Nomar a serious look. He might be the one underrated, underpriced FA out there.

http://tinyurl.com/8us5e

Come on guys, ther is no way the Mets will trade Milledge for an aging Kent. Considering that they have CF set, don't you think that the Mets will use their last remaining asset in a package to acquire a front line starter...Zito...

The whole thing with Kent for me comes down to the ultimatum..."me or Bradley". For a guy who is so passionate about winning, he sure isn't too concerned about keeping a legitimate impact player on the club knowing the scarcity of options available. Ultimatums from girlfriends or ballplayers are cause for immediate separation.

311
i would think much higher of Colletti if he traded Kent to the mets for prospects, especially since it would include Milledge.

You know what would even be better? Trading Kent for Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran, with the Mets agreeing to pay all their salaries, plus throwing in Tom Seaver retrieved from a time machine set to 1973.

If you read anything about the Mets in the New York media, you know Minaya would be flayed alive if he traded Milledge. Not even for Manny Ramirez. Combine Billingsley, LaRoche and Brandon Wood. That's what Mets fans think of Milledge. For Kent? No chance.

316
That brings up an interesting question. On the one hand, Kent has allegedly said "Me or Bradley." On the other hand, he has allegedly said "Either put a winning team on the field or trade me."

So, which of those demands is more important to Kent? If (as expected) Bradley is traded for inferior talent, wouldn't that seemingly conflict with the "put a winning team on the field" demand? Would Kent rather play on a better team with Bradley, or a worse team without Bradley?

315 -- They just traded a top pitching prospect for nobody.

everyone needs to stop crushing my milledge dream.

320 -- Now you know how I feel when people start talking about Joel the Boring Average First Baseman.

steve, jtd will only be 24 when furcals contract runs out.

there is still hope!!

318
Which makes me think that Kent is about as sincere as the story he gave about washing his truck when he broke his wrist. I'm really beginning to believe that in the twilight of his carreer it has become about ego for him. He is reluctant to move from 2B because he wants to be seen as one of the greatest ever at that position. He wants Bradley gone because he can't tolerate to share the clubhouse with someone who has called him on his narcisism? His ego is getting about as old with me as his 'stache.

Milton Bradley isn't exactly an also-ran in the Narcissism Olympics.

Milledge isn't realistic, but I will again state that I would be very happy with Diaz and a pitcher from the Mets. I really think Diaz needs to be given an opportunity to play everyday. The guy will strike out a lot, but I think the power he showed in limited ABs is legit.

how old is diaz i forgot... has his defense improved?

if no milledge, heilman has to be in the deal. he isnt latin, or from NY, so omar has no use for him.

317
I have to agree that the A's would be the primary target for Milledge and we should forget about such dreams. I don't think Ned signed Furcal so he could then trade Kent. Right now we have the most consistent and productive middle infield in baseball for the last four years. Why don't we win some ballgames with them before we move one of them. We have enough prospects, what we need is an outfielder or pitcher who is ready to play in 2005. I'm not one who thinks McCourt is the devil but I do think he wants this team to get to the playoffs. If for some reason we aren't making headway, Ned will still be able to flip Kent in July or let him walk next year for a number one pick because he's a certain A type player.

313. if kent goes to the Mets, that just to much bad karma to turn out well

im ok with Furcal making so much money in the third year of his contract, by 2008 we should have LaRoche playing 3B, Martin/Navarro playing C, Perez/Aybar/Abreu/Dewitt? playing 2B, and maybe Loney playing 1B, at least one young homegrown outfielder, and at least one young homegrown starting pitcher. All these players (six full time players) will be making less than $2-3 million, and most will be making less than $500,000. While he certainly wouldnt be worth the money, Furcal's salary shouldnt inhibit the payroll.

Teams get into trouble when they have to pay mediocre players significant money to fill holes, because they dont have young players coming into fill them. That shouldnt happen to the Dodgers in 2008. Then that offseason, you can poor the money freed up by Furcal leaving into longterm contracts to the real keepers.

a lot of the reaction ive been seeing on the net seems to go like this, "big money to furcal, but he's a banjo hitting middle infielder, sure he's good defensively but no slap hitter is worth that kind of money. You shouldnt spend big money on mediocre talent." It seems that people look at Furcal and stereotype him into the the light-hitting-middle-infielder that most overate. But Furcal, while being somewhat overrated by some, is an elite player. Furcal has accumulated more VORP over the last three years than any SS who played at least one year in the NL in that period, he's been one of the top 3 SS in the NL in each of those years measured by VORP, only Jimmy Rollins has showed that kind of consistency. And i havent even mentioned his defense, consider that, measuring only his offensive contributions Furcal has been the best NL shortstop since 2003. Sure, Jeter, Tejada, and Micheal Young are in the AL, and ARod's at 3B, but that still makes Furcal the 5th best SS in all MLB since 2003 and plays better defense than the top AL guys. Furcal doesnt sound like a weak offensive player to me, nor does he sound like a mediocre player. Furcal fits all the descriptions of an elite talent.

Oh, well, if Jimmy Rollins can do it...

324
Granted, but I just have a sincere dislike for Kent right now. He doesn't figure into the dodgers long term plans, plus he could net us something valuable in return. For those reasons, I see him as a roadblock for the dawn of the new dodger dynasty. For me, he is skeletor and optimus prime.

Diaz is only going to be 24 all through next year. His defense still is shoddy, but stick him in left with Bradley in CF and you mitigate any potential damage his glove can cause.

Who is JtD?

Joel Guzman, AKA, Joel the Destroyer.

ahhhh, it all makes sense now. viva JtD.

Talk of trading Kent is fine, I am studiously neutral. I am resigned to trading Kent for Pierre, so anything better than that (as Diaz certainly is) would simply be a relief.

325 - Aren't the Mets dangling one of their starters alread? Oh boy, imagine what Anna Benson would do to a clubhouse with Furcal, Milton Bradley and J. D. Drew...

Btw, did anybody else on this board happen to be watching The Victor Diaz Game on Fox in Sept 2004 and just KNOW as soon as he HRed that was the end of the Cubs' season?

329 - Watch it Steve. Rollins only needs, what, 20 more games to tie the last "unbreakable" record?

330

Arrgh, Clearly I meant Megatron...

Dang, I'm already forgetting my 80's references. Does alzheimers ever set-in before your 30's?

Joel the Destroyer was a shortstop. Now, apparently, he's Joel the Average Corner Outfielder.

336
That's funny. I was just going to ask you if you meant Megatron instead of Optimus.

329 -- Most straight games as a useless overpaid shortstop? Someday, Izturis will break that record. Who holds it now? I'm guessing Royce Clayton.

336-
I thought you were trying to speak of Jeff Kent's duality as he moans and complains but produces. And yes I think alzheimers can show signs early, not sure about that early but hey maybe you can be a medical wonder.

Not 329, 335.

1. Is Furcal to be known as "Raffy"? That just seems wrong.

2. If I've counted right, April 20 in Colo Rollins would be up to go for the tie (depending on how you view carryover streaks) and April 21 would be 57. Start arbitraging your tickets now, folks . . .

Meanwhile, I also see that the Dodgers are just up the road in Philly the first week of the season. hmmmmm . . .

If it's Kent or Bradley who has to go, it will be Bradley. For McCourt, it will be a PR matter. Bradley, not Kent, defied the manager and went public with his Kent rage. Bradley, not Kent, played the race card. Bradley, not Kent, was found to have these alleged character issues. Bradley still has to live down the bottle-throwing tantrum. If the result of all this misbehavior is that Kent, the victim, gets exiled, the McCourt! brand would be grievously injured.

To some of you, Kent is a player with productive value who should be looked at objectively in terms of what he could do for the Dodgers vs. what production he could be traded for. On the contrary, McCourt, Camille Johnston and probably Colletti, see Kent as an actor in a morality play, the Battle for the Soul of Milton. Kent can't be traded, because that would be seen as blaming the victim, and rewarding bad behavior. Either Bradley is exiled, or he is rehabilitated. Those are the only two possible outcomes.

he isnt latin, or from NY, so omar has no use for him.
Omar has no use for Milledge then

*that was an already on Benson

339 - I don't know, does ARod get extra credit for how overpaid he was? Maybe the stat guys have a formula for uselessness somewhere.

I shall now go to bed and concentrate upon all the vivid 80's cultural references that I can muster before they too disappear.

I eagerly anticipate the next move the Gof4 will make. I hope it does not involve Juan Pierre, Geoff Jenkins or Joe Randa.

327. molokai
I don't think Ned signed Furcal so he could then trade Kent.
You wouldn't think so.

We have enough prospects
Seems like it.

We have enough prospects, what we need is an outfielder or pitcher..
Outfielder and pitcher and third baseman.

Ned will still be able to flip Kent in July
A real possibilty.

Juan Pierre, Geoff Jenkins or Joe Randa

Just reading those names scratched my corneas

I thought there was not any such thing as a carryover streak (back to Hershiser in 88, though it became mooted when he gave up two runs in the first inning in 89). I thought there were two different records.

JT Snow, Travis Lee, Royce Clayton, Jacque Jones

I'm going to need a braille keyboard.

I keep thinking about Furcal at third. ala A-rod. Save Hee Seop!

There are pretty much only three free agents left that I would not have a problem with signing: Kenny Rogers, Nomar Garciappara, and Bill Mueller.

349. Steve
Just reading those names scratched my corneas
I didn't know you had any.

I'm going to need a braille keyboard.
You mean a new one?

If Rollins got to 57 straight games with a hit, he would get a record, but he wouldn't break DiMaggio's record. Rollins would have a record for the longest hitting streak over two seasons.

It's never been an issue because no one has had a streak over 2 seasons longer than DiMaggio's record.

MLB issued a memo on this at the end of the year.

355 - Better that than the Scarecrow's problem.

Man, that must have been an annoying day for Jimmy Rollins.

Has MLB bothered to determine who currently holds the record for a two-season hitting streak? By definition, Rollins could set that record at some point prior to getting 57--maybe even Opening Day.

I don't know if anyone has bothered determing the 2-season hitting streak, but the following people are good candidates.

Willie Keeler, 44-game hitting streak at the start of the 1897 season.

George Sisler, 34-game hitting streak at the start of the 1925 season.

Keeler had 210 hits in 126 in 1896.

HAHAHA, I got you guys talking about Jimmy Rollins!

Bob, just so you know, this is my revenge for 252

We should be thankful Kerry Collins can not play baseball (of course he can not play football either). Uggggghhh, will the futility end?

361 -- Evil! The Wrath of Choi be upon you and your seed.

362-
Walters!

From LATimes:

A power hitter. A shortstop. An outfielder. A leadoff batter. A third baseman. A starting pitcher.

And, oh yes, don't forget a manager.

The shopping list Dodger General Manager Ned Colletti planned to take to baseball's winter meetings in Dallas was long enough to wallpaper his hotel room. But he was able to cross off "shortstop" and "leadoff hitter" when free agent Rafael Furcal accepted a three-year, $39-million offer.

The lingering question after shoveling so much money at Furcal is whether the Dodgers have enough available payroll to fill other needs. Colletti is proceeding as if that is the case; he plans to keep spending until owner Frank McCourt tells him to stop.

That might not happen soon. Even without the Furcal signing, there were indications last week that McCourt would allow the payroll to approach $95 million, which would give Colletti another $10 million to $12 million to spend.

The power hitter could be a second-tier free-agent outfielder such as Jeromy Burnitz, Reggie Sanders, Jacque Jones or Preston Wilson. The third baseman is expected to be Bill Mueller or Joe Randa. Both would be relatively inexpensive and the Dodgers would offer a short-term deal because top prospect Andy LaRoche is expected to be ready by 2007.

Free agent Nomar Garciaparra has expressed a willingness to play third base and was a favorite of former general manager Paul DePodesta, but Colletti has concerns about his health — especially with so many current Dodgers coming off injuries.

The Dodgers have extended offers to several starting pitchers, including Matt Morris.

"We've talked to a lot of teams and have focused in on a select group of free agents," Colletti said.

Trading expensive pitcher Odalis Perez, troubled outfielder Milton Bradley and backup catcher Jason Phillips would free up additional money. But the Dodgers are reluctant to trade the prospects that figure into the team's future beyond 2006.

Colletti is uneasy that he doesn't have first-hand knowledge of the top players in the minor league system and has gotten input from player development director Terry Collins and scouting director Logan White.

"It may take dipping into [the prospects]," he said of filling current needs. "I've asked Logan and our player development people to give me a good view of where they are, where the upside lies and the chances of them achieving the upside.

"A lot of prospects turn out to be so-so or don't even make it. But the best case is that you fill your needs through free agency and keep the farm system intact."

http://tinyurl.com/7my4j

So should I go to the Motor City Bowl and watch Memphis play Akron or should I go to the Fort Worth Bowl matching Kansas and Houston?

Giants beat writer says the Giants are feeling rejected by free agents, due to concerns about clubhouse chemistry and the policies of the manager.

http://tinyurl.com/7tasb

256
Seems pretty arbitrary to say that it's a "different" record if it crosses the end of the season. What do you think the odds are that MLB would have ruled differently if it had been ARod or Pujols instead of Rollins challenging the record?

In my 368 that should be 356. Whoops.

367 -- NO! Not next year's National League West favorites!

Hmmm . . . wasn't some sharp fella musing about the All Quiet on the Preston Wilson Front just today?

And D4P, thanks for linking the article at 365, but I think the exceprt is probably a little too long for Jon's comfort.

366
That's kind of like choosing between Phillips or Grabowski at 1B.

371
Thanks for the tip. It looked pretty long to me too after I posted it. Everything was interesting, so I just kept copying and pasting.

The two-season record thing first came up in 1988 when it looked like Hershiser would only tie Drysdale at the end of the year because there wouldn't be enough innings.

Important things from the LA Times article:
-payroll may be around $95 million, leaving Ned $10-12 million to spend on FAs
-"Trading expensive pitcher Odalis Perez, troubled outfielder Milton Bradley and backup catcher Jason Phillips would free up additional money."
-Ned doesn't want to trade top prospects (probably Billingsley, Martin, LaRoche, maybe Guzman)
-Ned doesn't like Nomar, because he's injury prone
-Ned is targeting Randa (ugh) and Mueller for 3B, doesn't want to block LaRoche
-Ned has offered contracts to various FA starting pitchers, including the bearded one, Matt Morris (I think he's going to SF)
-No talk of acquiring a catcher (sorry to all you Toby Hall fans out there)

WARNING: STEVE CLOSE YOUR EYES

"The power hitter could be a second-tier free-agent outfielder such as Jeromy Burnitz, Reggie Sanders, Jacque Jones or Preston Wilson."

365 (371) - Yes, please remember not to post long excerpts of stories that are the property of other sites. Really, a link will suffice (and just 3-4 paragraphs max if you really feel the need). We can all use the Internet.

376
Mea culpa. I initially intended to only post a few paragraphs, but kept finding substance as I continued scrolling down.

372 -- Jim Tracy went to both of those games.

Give me those four names, and I pick Preston Wilson every time. Scary.

376 Now if a certain programmer-poet would just enable hyperlinks in the comments . . .

After all, what else is the offseason for!

Sounds like Furcal pulled a Beltre.

Braves GM John Schuerholz is upset he wasn't given a final chance to improve on his offer for Rafael Furcal, who chose to sign with the Dodgers for $39 million over three years.
"We were told they were going to come back to us and 'put everything on the table' to discuss his staying with the Braves," Schuerholz said. "Granted, our first offer wasn't what they had, but we never had a chance to negotiate."
- Rotoworld

Sounds like Furcal pulled a Beltre.

The Dodger Injury Conversion Chart says that he'll be out at least a year for that.

381
Ah yes. The DICC.

Just send Plaschke to work for the paper in Atlanta. By early summer, it'll be Schuerholz never called poor Raffy.

The fact that Colletti doesn't like Nomar is unfortunate. Just for clarification, why is Randa so terrible? I don't want him, but it's not like he's Neifi, his career .767 OPS is better than a particular Heart&Soul catcher's career OPS. If Mueller becomes too expensive/demands too many years, we could try to sign Helms, although he doesn't hit righties much better than Randa does

379 You download Firefox and then download their link thing. Don't remember what's it called, but I can now click on links here.

Speaking of Plaschke, UCLA has now handled New Mexico State, Delaware State, Drexel, Albany, and Coppin St. Over/under on when Ben Howland gets his first mash note of the year from Plaschke? I'm guessing after they beat Michigan.

384 Thanks for the tip, though I operate from a notionally work-related computer and, while I'm comfortable abusing the privilege and parking here for hours at a time, I think I draw the line at downloading scary new software into the system. Hence, I have no tinyurl button on my toolbar either . . .

373. D4P

It was interesting 365. Thanks.

385
You left out Temple.

Well the Braves seemed to really want to keep Furcal and that can only be a positive as they are known for being the best at judging their own talent.

374 I went to that game at Jack Murphy! I drove down from Laguna on a whim with two friends. Orel needed 10 shutout innings to break the record, but the Dodger offense was so bad, we decided it was a likely that the game could be tied after 9. Lucky me.

.256 .303 .395 .698

You can take the man out of the Great American Ballpark, but you can't take the Great American Ballpark out of the man. I'm fairly comfortable that we have any number of options at third base who can do that, for pennies on the dollar, while developing them into ballplayers who, down the road, will be even better that. I realize that just about anything looks better than the Mike Edwards Project, but that was wholly a symptom of Idiot Manager Syndrome, not any inherent weakness in the roster.

388 -- Not to mention upcoming matchups with Wagner and Sacramento St., no doubt the latter coming as a reschedule when Southern Utah had to pull out to play Dixie College.

Good news on the Preston Wilson front. Word in Natsland is that the team will not offer him arbitration for fear of him accepting, so no lost draft picks the lucky team that signs him.

The longest hitting streaks that span two seasons found so far are:

45 - Willie Keeler, last game of 1896, first 44 of 1897
32 - Harry Heilmann, last 11 games of 1922 and first 21 of 1923
31 - Ron LeFlore, last game of 1976 and first 30 of 1977

391 Is that Randa? If it is, MLB.com is really lying to me (they say he hit .275/.338/.424 away from Great America)

367. dzzrtRatt
http://tinyurl.com/7tasb

Sabean's comments about Lasorda were funny.
Can you see Lasorda, Colletti and McCourt all together eating and schmoozing at one of Tommy's favorite restaurants...

McCourt is finding his type of people to surround himself with.

395 -- That's Randa as a Padre.

354 What about Kenny Lofton? I wouldn't be averse to that FA signing either. He's always a bargain I think...

I prefer that Kenny to Rogers - talk about tampering with an already fragile team chemistry. Feh to him!

Actually, I'm going to disagree with myself - I was thinking of Reggie Sanders as someone I always liked and thought was underpaid. Lofton doesn't excite me as much. Neither of them excite me, frankly. But as OF depth... Sanders would be nice enough.

394. Bob Timmermann

Ron LeFlore. Now there is a guy who got rehabilitated.

Is Ricky Henderson planning to play again this year? Golden Bear, Surf Dawg, what was he last year again?

Sanders would be OK on a one-year -- one more obstacle between Repko and the major league roster.

402
Just another wall for Scrapko to run into.

Kent to the Mets?? vr, Xei
http://tinyurl.com/bqud5

397 Well, technically he didn't play at Great America for every game as a Red...

We could do worse than Randa, we could get Alex Gonzalez. Chuck Lamar assured me he had 20-30 home run power at the beginning of last season. And Tony Batista was released from Japan...

Fun fact: In 2003, Tony Batista some managed to hit 26 home runs and slug .393.

406 Errr...somehow.

384 I just did a search of Firefox add-ons with the word "link" and got 160-something hits. If you could try that link add-on you've got and tell me what it's called I'd appreciate it.

I mean, why Randa? Why not Aybar? Why not Perez? I can see taking a flyer on No-mah. I can see trading for a big gun, someone that gets you a sizably improves your standing there. Sure, Randa's better than Edwards. He's better than Valentin. He's also better than Beltre. So why do we have to pay him when we have two chances (at least) of similar or better production at 1/10 of the cost? So that Colletti can get another notch in his belt and another * from the LA Times? Nonsense. If this team can't put out a .750 OPS third baseman with the resources it already has (two MLB-ready third basemen, not to mention the potential three waiting in the wings), then Rob is right. The system is garbage, and they should all be traded for Juan Pierre and Kenny Lofton, who can play center and left field and bat 1 and 2.

so if ned doesnt want nomar, then i guess my hope for a trade for kearns is out of the picture eh?

I know it has been mentioned in the comments in days/weeks past, but I finally did a post about Antonio Perez's HBP/injury in winter ball.

409
If these rumors are true,

1. Kent to the Mets
2. Dodgers interested in Estrada
3. Dodgers looking for third baseman
4. Dodgers looking for first baseman
5. Dodgers looking for outfielder
6. Bradley to be traded

it's possible that the roster could undergo an overhaul of Depodestian proportions. Drew might be just about the only starter left from the 2005 squad.

Per 404:
Get this, that NY Mets "source" that has the Mets trading for Kent, says that somewhere Minaya has not given up on signing R. Hernandez or B. Molina and, "Read into that as you will... I personally (not my source speaking) feel Lo Duca might have been acquired to be part of this deal." Can you imagine the Dodgers trading Kent to the Mets and in return get back Loduca in the package! Talk about PR. I cannot imagine even the hapless McCourts would be that superficial to think Dodger fans are that blind.

408 Linkification I believe

Oh, never mind. Antonio Perez is obviously injury prone.

415 That's pretty good.

408- you should know, you're the link meister...

Actually, I'm interested in this program too.

I haven't seen these:
2. Dodgers interested in Estrada
4. Dodgers looking for first baseman

cotts baseball salaries is already updated:

Rafael Furcal inf
3 years/$39M (2006-08)

signed as a free agent 12/05
$5M signing bonus
06:$4M, 07:$13M, 08:$13M
additional $4M payment due in January 2009

so add 9 mil to the rough 70mil salary picture. that leaves us with roughly 15 mil to get the 95 mil mark.

needs:
a middle rotation pitcher
one or two bats, preferbly 3b/lf

can we get that for 15 mil? maybe ned can full off an "effing A" trade.

416 -- The lazy bastard is sitting out the Dominican League! The whole thing!

if we trade kent for freaking paul lo duca then everyone in the gang of four needs to be burned in the outfield bleachers.

Here's the link to the application:

https://addons.mozilla.org/extensions/moreinfo.php?id=190

419
After sitting out virtually the entire 2nd half of last season as well.

Mets fans are projecting -- they have the only GM dumb enough to trade Kent for LoDuca.

422 -- What a reprobate. Surely there will be a clamor over this gingerbread man pretending to be a baseball player!

it seems we got better value for lo duca then the marlins.

we traded lo duca for penny, marlins traded him for Gaby.

depo4president!!

420
Nate, forget the proposed particulars of the valuation of Kent vs. Loduca (I am sure the dodgers would get others in addition), but think of the motive behind such a deal - if there is any truth, I would be astonished!

I guess the Mets are thinking, if the Yankees can lose $85 million a year, than by gosh we can too. Can't wait to see their salary numbers after they add Manny.

mets dont have the players left to add manny.

413, 426 I don't really follow. Do you think it would not be popular among the broad swaths of LA baseball fans to bring back Paul LoDuca? Not straight up for Kent, but as part of a defensible deal.

Dodgers trading Kent? Perhaps that would be the answer for the either Kent or Bradley must go question. Then again, the whole thing is probably nothing more than a rumor.
vr, Xei

428 Well, apparently they can trade Jeff Kent for him . . .

if they can trade jeff kent for him, who else can they trade? i mean, if kent is a met, i am picking up milledge and heilman at LAX.. so they cant go to boston. hehe

I would have to give Flanders a lot of credit if, after Giles fell through, he decided that keeping Bradley was a good idea, and then went to Kent and told him as much, and then stood his ground when Kent demanded a trade, and then granted Kent's wish.

429 Of course it would be popular among many Dodger fans, but you cannot, ought not, run an orginazation intent on winning and being a winning team for years on the whims of fans wanting the "heart and soul" of the team back! The point is that if the McCourts/Ned were to pull this one over on the LA Fans I do not think they ought to be allowed to own a team!

Aren't you guys getting just a little fatigued from your speculation running wild?

Aren't you guys getting just a little fatigued from your speculation running wild?

not mean, i prepared myself for an all nighter so i can bust out this philosphy paper.. so i am all caffiened up right now.

421 Gracias, amigo.

I'm the linkmeister because I used to be in a Yahoo book club and posted links to current articles in the thing, and somebody called me that. It stuck, and when I wanted the domain name I learned it was available. I make no claim to know all the links in the world. ;)

"Melvin would like to acquire bullpen help but is waiting for the free-spending free agent market on that commodity to settle down. With Hall penciled in as the starting third baseman and Jeff Cirillo back in a reserve role, Melvin also is willing to trade Russell Branyan for a reliever, and has received inquiries about him." -Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Choi's older American clone could be interesting. Problem is he's more proven to be terrible aganist lefties, so pick up his someone like Helms, who can play 3B better than Saenz and mash lefties. That could create problems if we "need" a platoon mate for Choi though

435 This is what wild speculation reads like on the east coast... from that Mets link:

"If we were to move Benson for Kent, I think we would also get a decent prospect back too."...

"Cool. The Dodgers might make him available just for salary relief ala Cammy for Nady."

In 1991, I saw Randa in his first pro season, with the Eugene Emeralds of the Single-A Northwest League.
How long ago was that? That same weekend...
Friday, July 26: Montreal's Mark Gardner holds LA hitless through nine innings, but the Expos can't score against Hershiser, Kevin Gross and Jay Howell. The Dodgers win in the 10th behind consecutive singles from Lenny Harris, Eddie Murray (chasing Gardner for 20-year-old rookie Jeff Fassero) and Strawberry.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B07260LAN1991.htm

Saturday, July 27: Bob Ojeda shuts out the Expos while Strawberry and Kal Daniels homer. Alfredo Griffin bangs out a season-high four hits for the 14th and last time of his career.)
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B07270LAN1991.htm

Sunday, July 28: El Presidenté, Dennis Martinez, tosses a perfect game against the Dodgers. He strikes out five and allows only four balls out of the infield. Montreal scores its two runs in the seventh, with two errors by Griffin sandwiching a Larry Walker triple.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B07280LAN1991.htm

It was that long ago I saw Randa.

439 So if you combine the logic of this site with the logic of the Mets' site, Benson and Lastings Milledge are equivalent. Or actually:

Benson = Kent + prospect = Milledge + prospect

Well, who's to say Benson won't suddenly become Sandy Koufax?

439- yea, we want to get rid of Kent to dump his salary, while taking on a guy with a similar salary...makes a lot of sense.

And if by Benson he meant Milledge, the Dodgers still wouldn't be sending any prospects over, unless they think of Jason Phillips as an intriguing young player.

Those Mets fans are brilliant.

441- the only thing Benson and Koufax have in common is both received large signing bonuses

It gets funnier...

Benson, Trachsel, Matsui and cash for Kent and O. Perez

Odalis is better than Benson by most measures so this loon has us dealing Kent for Trachsel and Kaz Matsui. Benson 174ip, 95k yowzers.

Koufax got a whopping $14000 signing bonus.

Kris Benson got $2 million.

I missed out on the 600 Furcal posts so I'll offer this irony:

Player X: .275/.356/.428 (.282 EQA)
Player Y: .284/.348/.429 (.274 EQA, 3/$39M)

That's right folks- we just found a Dave Roberts that can play short!

444-
Werth, Antonio Perez, Odalis Perez for Pedro Martinez, David Wright and cash

Jason Phillips to the Mets, now we are talking. Let's tell them we want to cut out the middle man, those pesky Marlins, and just deal our outstanding catchers directly to them.

Especially the ones we got from them in the first place.

[441] good lord, not the "who's to say" argument again. that one wins every time. it cannot be defeated.

"it cannot be defeated."
--------

Well, who's to say?

indeed.

39--and JT Snow