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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
First, a leadoff thought. There has been much talk that the signing of Rafael Furcal means the end of minor league prospect Joel Guzman's shortstop career. But if Guzman were to tear it up in AAA at the start of 2006 and field passably (and if Hee Seop Choi doesn't nail down the first base job), is there no chance that Guzman could get called up, Furcal would move to second base, Jeff Kent to first, and that Cesar Izturis would be traded? This certainly would be nice, because whatever offensive value Guzman will have in the big leagues will only be multiplied if he can hold down a middle infield slot.
Of course, this scenario has a lot of ifs in it, not the least of which is whether Guzman will see an inning at shortstop in Las Vegas. Furthermore, Bill Mueller is not yet officially a Dodger, so third base is still open for Willy Aybar, Andy La Roche and Guzman.
But my point is, no one should consider Izturis playing second base in the second half of 2006 a done deal. As I've said before, too much can happen between now and then to know anything for sure. Heck, if the Dodgers aren't winning in June, Kent might be the one who gets traded.
Update: Meant to add earlier that Carlos J. Lugo posted this update about Guzman within his Dominican Winter League Report on Baseball Prospectus:
The Dodgers' Joel Guzman is continuing his steady development, a trend that started in 2004. Guzman is hitting .294/.370/.513 with 5 homers, 9 doubles, 26 RBI, 14 walks and 26 strikeouts in 119 at bats playing for the Estrellas. His notorious raw power has been on display more often in game action this year, and he's shown a much better understanding of the strike zone. Guzman has drawn a walk every 8.5 at bats and has struck out every 4.6, compared to 10.5 and 3.4 at Double-A during the summer. Joel told us at the season's start that former Dodger GM Paul DePodesta wanted him to concentrate more on his hitting and at bats, no matter where the Estrellas put him on the field. Guzman has played primarily at both infield corners, and recently was moved back to shortstop. He has committed eleven errors on the season.
Best Hitter for Average: Blake DeWitt
Best Power Hitter: Joel Guzman
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Russell Martin
Fastest Baserunner: Trayvon Robinson
Best Athlete: Matt Kemp
Best Fastball: Jonathan Broxton
Best Curveball: Chad Billingsley
Best Slider: Jonathan Broxton
Best Changeup: Julio Pimentel
Best Control: Chad Billingsley
Best Defensive Catcher: Russell Martin
Best Defensive Infielder: Chin-Lung Hu
Best Infield Arm: Andy LaRoche
Best Defensive Outfielder: Cody Ross
Best Outfield Arm: Xavier Paul
Read more about all of them in The Dodger Thoughts Comprehensive, Non-Definitive 2005 Minor League Report.
Luis Gonzalez, Jacksonville, 6-0, 190, 2/27/83: 2.21 ERA in 41 games with the Suns, interrupted indecorously by a midseason 9.31 in 10 games with Las Vegas. In Jacksonville, struck out 46 and walked 34 in 61 innings, but allowed only 35 hits and one home run.Mike Megrew, Vero Beach/GCL Dodgers, 6-6, 210, 1/29/84: Struck out 125 batters in 105 2/3 innings in 2004 with an ERA of 3.41, then ran into arm trouble and needed Tommy John surgery. By the way, that doesn't hurt his prospect status one bit. Strange times we live in.
Here's my snapshot of Weeden:
Brandon Weeden, Columbus, 6-4, 190, 10/14/83: Jeff Weaver and Yhency Brazoban made a difference for the Dodgers. Weeden, the third piece of Kevin Brown Yankee booty, who struck out 96 in 94 2/3 innings (top ratio in Columbus) but walked 69, gave up 13 homers and a 5.70 ERA ... maybe not. He was a second-round draft choice in 2002.
Great, great movie, highly recommended.
Back to the normal headlines and the rumors behind them...
"A source told the Boston Herald another team that was interested in Andy Marte turned away after the Braves acknowledged the player had a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of an elbow.
A Red Sox official said the team reviewed his medical file and declared him healthy. If Marte has a tear in his UCL, he might someday need Tommy John surgery. It's not as big of a concern for him as it would be for a pitcher, but it could leave the Red Sox without his services for a year."
- Rotoworld
It certainly is not "Straw Dogs." I can't even think about that movie without feeling a bit unwell.
As for Perez, he's overpaid and coming off a poor season in which he was injured. While the Dodgers may want to be rid of Perez, who would want him?
6-4-2 reports the Boston Globe says the Dodgers just signed Mueller to a two year contract.
Give LaRouche, Aybar, or Perez a shot at 3rd.
Furcal
Mueller
Drew
Kent
is a good start to a lineup. It's who comes next that is the important decision.
I believe Steve Yeager is still affiliated with the Dodgers. Why wouldn't he be a good mentor?
9 Please, please not this again. Seems like every three days, we get 150 posts on what we could get if we traded Kent and/or Gagne. Got it. If this was a fantasy league, great idea. In the real world, you could not replace the value of either one of them with anything the Dodgers actually would need because as soon as they were gone, you'd have created a big new hole. And, in the real world, Colletti is not stupid enough to trade the team's most (only?) marketable players.
Mueller...Tomko
Tomko...Mueller
I think I like the stability that Mueller brings, rather than the below-average innings Tomko would chew up.
I think it's a good signing, if it's short, and more-or-less reasonable. (If it is at all, in fact.) It's not always a good idea to leapfrog prospects, especially if the team is so filled with holes there'd be a greater chance of feeling an oversized expectation.
Go Mr. Ned. The more holes he fills short-term without giving away the farm, the happier I'll be.
"(Speaking of insane, not only did the Dodgers hire Grady Little as their manager, they gave him Steve Garvey's old number. Way to tick off the diehard Dodgers fans coming out of the gate, guys! Just wait until he's trying to figure out double switches and stuff -- this was a guy who managed to lose his No. 1, 3 and 4 hitters in extra innings of a must-win playoff game; I can't even imagine what he'll be capable of with pitchers batting. It's almost sounds like a sociological experiment. Thank you, Comedy Gods -- you have put me in the same city with Pete Carroll AND Grady Little.)"
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/051209
1. projects Ruggiano to be a 5th outfielder.
2. He seems to love Abreu and doesn't think Guzman will ever see time at SS.
3. Still picks Martin over Navarro
4. Thinks Loney power surge in the AFL was real but is the minority at BA
5. Says the everyone agrees the Dodgers have the best talent up and down then anyone in baseball and they are the number one minor league team.
1- is billingsleys change up more of split finger insteas of a true change up? if so, can he polish it enough to make it another out pitch for him?
1. Orenduff just fell out of the top 10. Worried about stamina issues but they like his stuff.
2. E Jackson didn't qualify for the list but they are still hopefull given he's only 22 and still projects to major league starter.
3. Very down on Miller because of the constant setbacks and the fact he just can't pitch without pain for a sustained period. Loves everything else about him.
If Dodger fans can survive Brent Mayne wearing #6, I somehow think that we're not overly attached to it.
"It's very unlikely. While I don't believe that White and the Dodgers will turn a deaf ear to Hochevar's requests, the damage has been done. There were some unethical, unfair personal attacks made and, above that, Hochevar's unwillingness to take control of the situation doesn't speak well of his own makeup"
I think Rotoworld is turning out to be about as reliable a source as the CIA before the invasion of Iraq.
I don't know. It's all part of my campaign to slow down the rush to judgment here.
And, of course, he's never been much of a bunter. :-D
5- Offensively, what mlb comp would be accurate for matt kemp?
6- Why is everyone at BA down on tiffany now? last year, BA rated him as having the best curveball in the org. this year in a chat, callis said he has average pitches across the board. whats the deal?
7- what do you make of laorche's lack of power in the AFL? was his power display in the FSL a fluke due to his home stadium?
40 Besides, the number isn't just a Garvey exclusive anymore...
They gave him Jason Grabowski's number! What will the Grabowski fans think? And what will the Furillo fans think? (he was #6 right?). oh wait, they didn't give Grady #6. Duh.
Three years from now, if Hochevar can pitch, no one's going to care about what happened that one week in 2005.
let both sides sit low for a while, revisit negotiations back in ST and get a deal done by draft day.
i cant think of anymore questions!
This is where Boras needs to earn his money. He needs to eat some crow on Hochevar's behalf with Colletti. The fact is, the situation has changed dramatically, and if Hochevar would show some humility, I bet he could be signed tomorrow.
Boras doesn't do humility, I guess. He's a tractor with one gear.
Yes, I would say there is ZERO chance of Guzman playing SS, entailing the move of Furcal to 2B, Kent to 1B, and trading Izturis.
letting him re enter the draft, get drafted in the 5th round and sign for 250K by the rockies isnt in his clients best interest.
He fills a hole. I wouldn't be concerned if he signed a 1,2 or 3yr contract. When the time comes for one of the kids to move in, he's tradable. There is always a need for a 3rd baseman who can hit. His defense...well, not what you would hope for.
So far, if we go by confirmed reports, we'd have Saarloos and Soriano.
I like Simmons, but do any Dodger fans care about Garvey's old number? Or Garvey, for that matter? He's been gone more than 20 years. May as well get upset over the FA signings of Goltz and Stanhouse.
If we were in the same room right now I would have you in a head lock until you took back that comment. So the answer is Yes Dodger fans do care.
I am pretty fired up for this if it happens.
I think a solid 1-2 at the top followed by Drew and Kent should be really good for us. Hopefully they can keep Bradley at the 5 slot.
Sounds like most of the pitchers will either stay in Jax or move up to LA.
"Tiffany was in 12-15 range. Tiffany features a fastball, curveball and changeup that are average to slightly above-average, and they all play up because of his command. His fastball ranges from 85-93 mph. His breaking ball ranges from 74-78 mph with tumbling break. He also has good feel for his changeup, which he'll throw in any count. Most scouts believe Tiffany's ceiling is as a No. 4 or 5 starter, and give him a high probability of attaining it."
you might be right but it is foolish to say zero chance. I still don't understand why there is a rush to diminish his value when his range isn't suspect. the only problem that I have read has been inaccurate throws. I don't get it. You guys would have moved Magic Johnson to forward coming into the NBA.
And I say this as someone who roots for Antonio Perez and Willy Aybar.
The Rockies intentionally did not draft him even though he is a local boy precisely because of his "representation". I suppose if Boras were to grovel and accept $250K then the Rockies might reconsider...
I've gotta run; call from Hell; it's freezing over.
Side question: Adrian Beltre dabbled at shortstop on an emergency basis. Is Guzman a worse shortstop than Beltre?
As for Rotoworld, they fall under the "don't shoot the messenger" clause most of the time. In their blurb about Mueller they simply say that it was what CBS4 was reporting, rarely do they get the inside scoop themselves.
I agree Jon, if they can sign Hochevar for the reported 3MM and he can pitch in 2007, think of the value, also, after Chad and maybe Scott Elbert, we don't have any real studs (wait and see on Tiffany) down there and I think it is important to keep the momentum of minors going.
Actually your wrong. As a left handed hitter Mueller projects much better then A Perez and he is an above average defender. DS will not have that big of an impact on Mueller since most of his at bats will come from the left side of the plate. In fact his home run power should go up as Fenway is a tough park to hit home runs for LHB with a rating of 84 while Dodger stadium is 110 for 2005.
His OPS+ (park-adjusted stat) has been above average the last few years and he gets on base.
"Denker generates good bat speed, drives the ball to all fields and could be a perennial 20-homer player in the big leagues. Where he will play when he gets there is the problem. Denker has poor range, stiff actions and a fringe-average arm. He catches what's hit to him and was showing gradual improvement last season. He's not very athletic, so a switch to the outfield could present problems, as he is also a below-average runner."
my garvey bobblehead started spewing pea soup and rotating, not bobbling, it's head, so i had to check and see what was going on.
the blasphemy in post 49 set it off. no more, please.
Could be right. I can't find park effects for doubles for LHH or doubles period. They break down home runs by LH or RH and average but nothing else. Fenyway is very easy to hit doubles with 135 rating but DS was much easier to hit doubles in last year with a 99 rank.
I'm not saying Mueller is going to do what he did in Fenway, he's 35 and moving to a tougher park. Just saying he's way better then A Perez. He may not be better then LaRoche come mid-summer or Aybar or Guzman.
Except the company being traded didn't have 610,000 shares outstanding.
Much hilarity ensued.
And large fines.
"Lefthander Hong-Chih Kuo made a remarkable comeback this season, but he's going to have to perform over a more extended period of time before we run him into the top 10 ahead of those guys you mentioned. If he can stay haelthy, he could be a valuable lefty out of the bullpen and a return to the starting rotatoin in not out of the question."
Alan Matthews: Alvarez owns a devastating changeup, a high-80s fastball and can spin a breaking ball. His overall command and feel for pitching are rudimentary.
Alan Matthews: They both have live arms and suspect injury histories. Rodriguez, a lefty, has good bite on his slider but is undersized and has had elbow and shoulder trouble. Diaz has one of the best fastballs in the Dodgers system, but has already had TJ surgery and with his max-effort delivery, might not maintain his health.
For anyone who enjoyed it, I'd also recommend Kurosawa's "Heaven and Hell" (silly Americanized title: High and Low), which is even better -- one of the 15 or 20 best films I've ever seen.
J.C. Romero to the Angels.
You're in luck, Bob. The presses hadn't started yet. We were holding off until the Merloni news came in.
But they take a very long time to do this. There is a lot of talking and folderol and what not. It could be done in about 5 minutes.
They've budgeted NINETY!
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Sounds like the NCAA selection show. That, or a Merchant Ivory film.
Career Rate2 at 3B:
Mueller 99, Perez 97
James 2006 projections:
Mueller: 283/365/421/786
Perez: 284/345/412/757
Mueller's projections include Fenway park factors, Perez is for DS. What affect will switching from Fenway to DS have on Mueller's production? It will hurt his average (and OBP somewhat) from both sides, tank his double and triple production from both sides, decrease his right-side HRs and keep constant or increase his left-side HRs.
Overall you have basically comparable players at Dodger Stadium, except Mueller is a higher injury risk and gets paid more.
James 2006 projections: ...
Could he be wrong? by 10%, by 20%, by 25%.
In which direction? On both, only one or the other?
They're locked in some kind of cosmic mutual orbit, I think.
1-2 record and a flight back to the States.
Could he be wrong? by 10%, by 20%, by 25%.
In which direction? On both, only one or the other?"
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I suspect the Mueller projection is a lot more reliable than the Perez one. This is because Mueller has had more playing time (bigger sample size), and also because his projection doesn't involve Las Vegas in any way, shape or form, which Perez's presumably does.
BTF's ZiPS projections for 2006:
Aybar .260/.321/.376
Perez .269/.342/.423
Mueller .289/.369/.441 (projection is for Fenway Park)
It's the only European nation vs. former colony matchup. Technically, Togo was controlled by France, but that was a much different setup politically. Togo was actually colonized by the Germans and then given over in part to the French and British after World War I.
That's Timmermann family country. Flat and boring.
Argentina, Netherlands, Cote d'Ivoire, and Serbia & Montenengro.
It's a good year for &s in the World Cup with both Serbia & Montenegro and Trinidad & Tobago.
From Sports Illustrated's initial preview:
"the last time Portugal and Angola met in a friendly match in Lisbon four years ago, four Angolan players were sent off for brutal tackles and dissent and the game was abandoned with 20 minutes to play."
123. The Swedes are idiots, after Argentina's and Italy's group, I'd call that one the strongest with T&T the only weak link.
The Swedish media loves this because England's coach is Swedish, and their stories will all write themselves now. Plus, Sweden hasn't lost to England since 1966, so they can write all kinds of curse stories, too.
Oh well that will be a pushover.
"Third base should require less effort. Garciaparra would be ideal, but the division rival Padres are one of several teams courting him. Free agents Bill Mueller and Joe Randa also are possibilities, but the Dodgers don't want to make a lengthy commitment as they prepare for the arrival of Andy LaRoche, Adam's younger brother. They contacted the Phillies at the end of the winter meetings, saying they wanted to revisit a deal for David Bell."
http://tinyurl.com/afcdr
Baseball: I'm just pleased with Mr. Ned's patience and appreciation of the LAD's farm system, and wariness of trading those guys for a quick fix. I'm really happy. I'm sure we'll end up trading a couple of players, but glad it won't be CBill or LaRoche or Guzman.
PS: Etanislao? How'd he get Tony out of that? I'm gonna call him E-Tan for now. Until he's traded somewhere.
Comment #124 was object #300000 in our system. Congrats, Bob, for hitting that milestone!
Standing ovation, flowers, gifts, curtain call, etc.
OK, now back to the game...
You owe it all (or at least some of it) to the 20+ posts that inevitably follow the initial "I'm freaking out over this unsubstantiated rumor involving a horrible trade for the Dodgers" post.
Blue Jays GM. J.P. Ricciardi said he's not interested in the rumored Milton Bradley-for-Miguel Batista trade.
Bradley talks with the Cubs have also reportedly cooled, though they remain the favorites for the troubled outfielder. Dec. 9 - 3:46 pm et
Source: Toronto Sun
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Good, neither am I.
a) it would be Bob Timmerman;
b) it would have nothing to do with baseball.
No more mentions of Togo or T&T until May I promise.
However, I reserve the right to comment on Tunisia.
The Modesto Nuts.
And Glenallen Hill is batting coach.
He had to have been one of the worst outfielders I've ever seen. And he played a lot of games in the outfield. Most players as bad as he in the field (like Todd Hundley) are moved away to spare them embarrassment.
I do remember watching Hill playing for the Giants and I believe he got a 9 UDP in a game against the A's. He kept pump-faking throws in and eventually tagged out the runner.
The first game between Mexico and Iran is going to get huge ratings in LA. Two underrated teams too.
Of all the possible scenarios, this one makes the most sense to me right now.
155 "Of all the places Bradley might land--I think Oakland makes the most sense."
Or Mars.
(But yeah, and they would have the most surplus of pitching to offer us - but we've already gone over the ideas of Sarloos, Kennedy, et al. Zito is the only one I'd want, and he's only gone if they get another SP, and only to us if we also throw in a top prospect.)
romero wanted out; gardy wanted him out - i don't think the twins had too much leverage. plus he sucked (iirc) with inherited runners. but still, i know what you mean.
Ah well, too bad.
Snow looks to future after Giants
First baseman mulls retirement, interest from Dodgers
In the article, there's just a line towards the bottom that says, "The Los Angeles Dodgers have expressed interest in Snow."
If Mike Veeck was running that team, he'd change their nickname to the Modesto Spiders and schedule a promotion called "Steal the Caps Off Our Heads Day."
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God, however, has declined the offer, citing low supplies of snow shovels at area stores and a conspicuous lack of tire chains.
http://tinyurl.com/96y3q
Q. How specifically can it help a player like Jason who recently has signed with you guys long-term and talked about wanting to step up in a leadership role?
"You know, can we chase them in 2006? You know, why isn't there every reason to think that you can do that if you play baseball the way that it's supposed to be played and with regard to some of these previous questions that I was asked, everybody understands what the hell it is they have to do in order to remain in that hunt."
I think it's very important that, you know, in our case right now, we have two lefties in our pen in Grabow and Gonzalez. I think that's a very nice number to have from a situational pitching standpoint at different points in times in the game. Right now, Ryan Vogelsong, his name is there. You'd like to have what you would consider to be two lengthier guys because I'm not a big proponent of overusing people that end up being a part of a game that you have a real chance to win.
Huh?
There is a model right there within your own division that if you have any doubts as to how winning baseball on a regular basis gets played, just look, just look, and it doesn't -- you know, it can be as little as moving a man from second to third in the latter part of the game that's going to put you in a position to win. And when you look over there at that side of the field, they don't give a damn if it's Pujols or Edmonds or Scott Rolen or Larry Walker or going back to the last couple of years' clubs that have played in St. Louis. And as a result of that, they are going to win. They do it. When you create and develop that type of a mindset within your clubhouse -- I experienced it in 2004 -- it's a very infectious thing. There's no one specific individual that's going to walk in there and try to tear that back away from you when you know how hard it is to influx it and keep it there.
"I think it's very important that, you know, in our case right now, we have two lefties in our pen in Grabow and Gonzalez. I think that's a very nice number to have from a situational pitching standpoint at different points in times in the game"
When will Tracy learn that being a lefty and in the bullpen doesn't mean you're a LOOGY. I'm not sure if Tracy could handle a situation where someone like Billy Wagner was cosing. And for the record, Gozalez is very good against lefties, but can get righties out too
Q. Wells had a really, by all standards, a miserable year last year?
JIM TRACY: Yeah, he did
Q. Tracy had a really, by all standards, a miserable year last year?
I thought the Q in 169 was funny because I was imagining Jim running through all the Jasons in his mind before answering.
177 He has to interview better. He's certainly got a better sense of humor, even if it is a bit folksy. More self-deprecating, too, it would seem.
c
Ol' JT may have lost his Grabowski, but he's gaining a Grabow.
I'd like to propose a moritorium on suggesting that major league Dodger SS be turned in to 2B. Bad enough that the Izzy to second rumor is out there, we really have to entertain moving the $13 million dollar man there? There are women and children reading these things. . .
I don't understand aquiring Sandy Alomar instead of just keeping Jason Phillips. I don't like Phillips, but if Martin starts the year in the minors, isn't Phillips a pretty good back-up? Better than a 39 year old catcher with an OPS+ of 55 and 67 over the last two years?
It was supposed to be Bako but so much for that...
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