so far so good Mr. Ned. I thought the worse but I'm starting to like this guy.

So, did Dan Patrick ever spill his whopper?

Furcal and Mueller at the top of the lineup would look good. what do others think the projected line up look right now?

3 for 3. Grady could Tracy this one up in '07, but as of now, it's not bad.

Our infield and top of the order is looking pretty solid.

Who can be had to fill out the outfield?

3 As of now ...

Furcal, SS
Choi, 1B
Drew, CF
Kent, 2B
Mueller, 3B
Cruz, RF
Ledee, LF
Navarro, C

Or something like that. I'm not hung up on the batting order here, but that isn't an Opening Day outfield.

6 - So Werth, for sure, is not well by opening day?

Love the signing. And Joe, you're right, need another outfielder. And a starter.

But so far, I like what the Dodgers are doing.

With the Mueller signing, our 40 man roster is at 39 players. How much longer can Myrow and Edwards stay on the roster?

8 - er Jon

6 - ...but that isn't an Opening Day outfield.

Indeed. Drew may still not be ready and you just know one of Ledee/Cruz is going down. Uh, that's in addition to JD's inevitable visits to the DL.

6 - ...but that isn't an Opening Day outfield.

Indeed. Drew may still not be ready and you just know one of Ledee/Cruz is going down. Uh, that's in addition to JD's inevitable visits to the DL.

I felt I need to state the obvious twice for effect.

8
I just thought you were referring to yourself in the third person.

As a novice sabremetrician, may I ask you all if there is a statistical tool for evaluating performance in the clutch?

There are players that are able to rise to the occasion when a game (or better, a championship) is on the line. Magic Johnson, Joe Montana, Kirk Gibson, etc. - pressure brings out the best in players like this. Mueller strikes me as having some of this quality, though that is purely observational and anecdotal (and mainly from a Boston friend who loves the guy).

What would be good statistical indicators of this kind of talent? Average with runners in scoring position? Average with 2 strikes? 2 strikes and 2 outs and RISP?

Thanks!

uh oh (ducks)

a corner outfielder to put cruz or ledee back on the bench as a 4th outfielder or to cover for injuries is all we need now. starting pitching an entirely different matter.

does anyone think Weaver accepts arbitration. with the way things are shaping up one more year from (i'm sorry Steve) might by time for the minor league guys and edwin.

Penny, Lowe, Odalis, Weaver is not that bad. Everyone is healthy right now coming into the season

"Clutchness" is a term that divides baseball fans into two camps with such fervor that it can get nasty.

It's like debating religion vs. science, transubstantiation vs. consubstantiation, pro-life vs. pro-choice, USC vs. Texas, Dick York vs. Dick Sargent.

I hope Weaver accepts arbitration for the same reason I like the Meuller signing - it keeps us from having to bring up our young guys too soon. If Weaver doesn't come back and we don't replace him with a veteran, I fear the temptation to start Billingsley will be too great.

Also, Jon, I seriously doubt Choi will be hitting second on Opening Day or any other day. Even if he is the right choi(ce) because of his OBP, no manager looks at a big hulking first baseman who doesn't hit for average and thinks, "Yes, I've found my two-hole guy!"

19 And recognizing that Jon said his roster wasn't batting-order-fixed, the espn.com article on Mueller has him batting second. I'm sure they consulted Grady Little before writing that, of course.

http://tinyurl.com/8gfdp

15 - Greetings, Tyro. You may wish to read this:

http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.pdf

19 - You're right. He's too big to only have two holes.

i have a friend who was asking me about clutch hitting. i told him i didn't really know, but i gave him some links to check out:

a good and accessible intro, from bill james himself:

http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.PDF

a good discussion of bill james' article on baseball think factory here, including
a further elaboration from james and some dissenting view from some other guy:

http://tinyurl.com/7haoj

that one has to be accessed through the google cached page because BTF moved it
or something, but it's worthwhile.

some more views

pro:
http://www.tangotiger.net/clutch.html (tangotiger is a very reputable sabermetrician)
http://www.dolphinsim.com/ratings/notes/clutch.html (i think this is pro-clutch,
i only skimmed it myself)

con:
http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/clutch_art.htm
http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/10/23/234743/73#readmore

a brief article from the very enjoyable Hardball Times site which includes the following
gem:
"Clutch hitters may not exist, but Jose Valentin is definitely one of them."

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/clutch-masters/

Gimme NoMah in Left and Washburn in the rotation, and how about Alvarez as swingman on the cheap. Looking forward to Opening Day.

Has anyone been spreading Rickey to the Dodgers rumours besides me?

I'm sure the pursuit of Nomar (for left? first?) heats up here. It wouldn't be bad.

I won't mind losing the Chopper, if it forces us to stop debating his de/merits. I won't mind keeping him either, if we can hit him 7th and consider his likely sporadic contributions to be gravy. I always thought DePo was right on this point, counting on him last year for something like 20/80 and no more. He wouldn't be a huge loss, though the chant was always a kick in the head and he was a likeable presence. (A moment of silence here for Milton Bradley's charming remark last year--perhaps his only one. "I like Chop. Chop's good people.")

It'll be interesting, for sure.

One gets the impression that Colletti must have sat McCourt down and explained to him slowly and clearly that if he wasn't going to have a $100 million payroll next year he was going to lose another 90 games.

Rickey was born on December 25. Just like his pal Jesus. I think they had a birthday party together with some of their nursery school friends. Mary made a really nice cake.

28 Pay Jesus!

Incidentally, I just installed Linkification for Firefox. Makes following links around here much easier.

How did you arrive at the conclusion Jesus was born on December 25th?

How offical is this? MLB.com has nothing on the matter, while both Yahoo and ESPN are sourcing the Pittsburgh Post Gazzette.

28-- Bob, you may be confused; Rickey actually was a classmate of Moses.

21 & 23 - Thanks Scareduck and Vishal. I'll bone up.

The guys that paint the player murals around Dodger Stadium better get started early this year.

25- Lofton is Rickey part 2. Kenny's only 38, so perhaps he has a 2 year incentive laden contract coming. NoMah, Lofton, Drew in outfield. That could work. Lots of pinch-hitters, pinch-runners and depth in case of injuries.

24- forgot about Alvarez's wing being injured. This Homer really liked him on the Dodgers.

Does Armas Jr. still have anything left at 27 years of age? I like him on the cheap...at about less than 2 mil per.

32 - http://tinyurl.com/dudj2

MLB.com on Mueller.

The Dodgers site now has this, again citing the Pittsburgh Post Gazzette.

[26] milton had another good quote about being rendered defenseless. for a guy with a "thug" reputation, he sure is articulate.

In my mind Milton will say just about anything to shift blame. And I'm sure he believes it at the time he says it. He reminds me of the Humphrey Bogart character in Treasure of the Sierra Madre. "Fred C. Dobbs never says nothin he don't mean"

26--I really do like Milton, though. I'm not crushed we had to lose him (I don't think he'll quite fulfill his potential in the same way Raul Mondesi didn't,) but he was sort of a delight to have around. The spot of him that ran endlessly last year ("Dodger stadium..there's no better etc.) with that image of him tugging his jersey and barking. I'll miss that. I wish him well on the A's and thank God we didn't trade him to an NL team.

39 There was an ESPN article about Milton a while ago. He's a smart man. Graduated high school with like a 3.9 GPA.

I'm happy about Mueller. He was the one Giant I liked during the period he played here in SF (did I say that? I liked a Giant? Gack!) Well, I always respected JT Snow's style of play, too, but I'm hoping we don't sign him. Anyway, Mueller's a good call. Now we don't have to rush LaRoche.

I heard a funny anecdote about him on the Razor and Mr. T (Tolbert) show up here on KNBR, when a caller said he could never respect Mueller until he learns to spell his name "Miller," the way it's pronounced. Razor said Mueller had once told him the reason it's pronounced that way is because his family was nervous about having a German sounding name right after WWII so they changed the pronunciation way back then, and it stuck. Makes sense to me.
(But hey, that was awhile ago, it's probably safe to change it back now.)

Ug. I'm not happy with Mr. Ned's recent moves. Don't see how Mueller is an improvement over A. Perez. His defense in mediocre (in other words, about the same as Perez), his power comes in the form of doubles and triples which will be suppressed at Dodger Stadium, he is a huge injury risk, plus he will cost millions rather than league minimum. As for trading two decent big leaguers for one B+ prospect, double ug. I can't wait for the JT signing.

43
I think it would have been around WWI not WWII.

There was a lot more anti-German hysteria during that war.
However, the story doesn't make a lot of sense since Bill Mueller's family is from a part of the country where nearly everybody has a German name.

(See name attached to this post.)

Also check Red Schoendienst's birthplace.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schoere01.shtml

I guess I should have said 3 for 4. He did hire Grady.

44- Yeh, it was a lame signing considering we could have played face fractured Antonio Perez and would have waited a while on hurt knee emotionaly unstable Bradley. Instead of starting those two players he signs a proven winner. Man Ned should change his name to dumbo with moves like that.

I have had a facial fracture before and it affects your depth perception for about 18 months, so if AP's defense was horrible before it wont be getting any better anytime soon.

Asssuming this is true, it goes into the same category as Ned's other moves, not the worst possible thing, but not great either.

Had the Dodgers not gotten Furcal, I'd be much happier with this move, but as it stands, Until the 2008 season begins, the Dodgers have Izturis, Furcal, and Mueller under contract. This basically ends Guzman's career at shortstop, and forces him into the outfield. LaRoche is stuck in AAA until then. Right now, the Dodgers have several players that can play on the left side of the infield that have no where to go for two seasons.

By next year, Aybar, LaRoche, Guzman, Delwyn Young and possibly even DeWitt could be ready. None of them have any real spots on the team now.

I simply have to wonder how much better than Aybar and Perez Mueller is.

You guys are living in a fantasyland. Colleti has made 3 moves so far and each one has been HORRIBLE.
1) The Furcal signing was atrocious. $13 million for an above-average shortstop? You're kidding me! Furcal's OPS is .150 points higher than Izzie, and Furcal is making $11 million more.
2) Beane just raped Colleti on the trade. There's no other word for it. An all-star caliber outfielder and a throw-in for a prospect? A PROSPECT???? I don't care if the guy was player of the year in all of AA ball -- that's like being the tallest ant.
3) Mueller and Perez look pretty similar to me on paper, and Mueller is going to make a lot more money.
4) This hasn't happened yet, but what about Johnny Damon? He's demanding 5+ years, but he's already 33. And how much is he going to cost? There's no way he accepts less than Furcal got per year. If you can somehow get him to bend on one of those two things he'll be a great pick-up. But I doubt a new GM on a losing team can do that when there are other bidders.

45 Hmm, you mean something I heard on AM radio could prove to be false?? ;-) But seriously, this was what Mueller himself apparently used as the reason. Maybe it was WWI, but as one who's been working on a WWII script for the past couple of years, I can tell you (not from firsthand experience) there were some people who were scared of anti-German resentment during that time, too. But you're right, it was worse during WWI. Maybe Mueller's grandmother made that story up so he'd have something to use to explain to confused teachers and mocking schoolchildren, and later, to confused press and mocking baseball fans.

I don't recall Mueller's defense being that bad nor him being a huge injury risk - certainly not over AP (whom I liked), who, as Curtis mentions above, has a fractured jaw. Btw, if it doesn't work out, bring up LaRoche.

the mueller move is a good move. Although we now only have 1 pick in the first 3 rounds of the 2006 draft. we lose 2nd rounder for furcal and 3rd rounder for mueller. :(

if our prospects are ready and mueller and izzy both play like they are capable of, there will be a market for them and they can always be traded.

now, we need to add an OF bat. Reggie sanders wouldnt be bad as he was not offered arbitration as well. Nomar would be a good choice too if he is willing to play LF.

mr. ned, please stick with the choi/saenz platoon. it works! trust me.

48 "This basically ends Guzman's career at shortstop, and forces him into the outfield."

Why? Mueller is signed for 2 years, Furcal for 3. Is JtD ready to move up this year? Is he ready to move up next year?

Does anyone have an idea of what our draft will look like next year with the recent free agent signings? We have the #7 pick which cannot be touched and I assume we will lose our second and third rounds for the Mueller and Furcal signings given they were both offered arbitration? If Weaver ends up signing with another team, are Braves entitled to the pick we recieve as compensation for losing Weaver ?

Honestly, I think some of you enjoy deriding everything that anyone associated with the Dodgers does. The Dodgers will be better next year (not saying much, I know), they will compete for the division title (again, not saying much), and could even be halfway good. All this, by the way, without sacrificing any of our top prospects (so far) and getting another team's best prospect.

I'm still worried about our outfield, but I already think our lineup looks a lot better than last year's, and better than most of the other team's in our division.

But I guess I'm just living in dreamland.

44 A Martinez, on KSPN yesterday, said that Perez didn't work hard, didn't try to improve himself at third base, and finally forced Tracy to sit him. We'll have to believe what we will.

49 Different point of view: Beane saved the Dodgers from non-tendering Bradley altogether; Mueller and Perez look very different in the clubhouse.

3 I'm still not convinced that the lineup right now isn't:
Furcal, SS
Robles, 2B
Drew, CF
Kent, 1B
Mueller, 3B
Cruz, RF
one-of-the-rookies-who-wins-a-Spring-job, LF
Navarro, C
Still not a Major League outfield. Even if we do make the Gathright trade.

re: Furcal -- sometimes there's something to at least making a bad thing better.

54 Are the Dodgers better tthan what they had going into 2004? Atre Furcal and Mueller better than what the Dodgers lost in Weaver and Bradley?

The Furcal signing was atrocious. $13 million for an above-average shortstop? You're kidding me! Furcal's OPS is .150 points higher than Izzie, and Furcal is making $11 million more

there are better ways to measure a players impact then OPS. Furcals vorp last year was over 8 and he is a huge improvement over izzy who by the way, we dont even know if he will still have the arm to play shortstop.

Beane just raped Colleti on the trade. There's no other word for it. An all-star caliber outfielder and a throw-in for a prospect? A PROSPECT???? I don't care if the guy was player of the year in all of AA ball -- that's like being the tallest ant.

bradley is an all star caliber player but to be an all star, you need to be on the field and play baseball. Bradley has not shown he can consistently be on the field. I think you are underating ethier here a little. Hes a pretty good player, could have a david justice type cieling.

Mueller and Perez look pretty similar to me on paper, and Mueller is going to make a lot more money.

they look similar except with mueller we know he can produce. with perez, last years season was rather flukish and out of line from his career norms. Also, perez tailed off considerbly in the second half, could be a sign that pitcher have figured him out. I guess im one of the few here that does not see antonio perez as anything special. Hes a decent bench player to have but when you have willy aybar that is mlb ready and delwyn young at AAA, along with oscar robles as the utility/defensive infielder, perez just doesnt seem to have a spot on the team.

How many of our current top prospects were drafted in the first 3 rounds?

49 - I'm fairly certain there was another word for it.

48 - I predict Mueller will move into a backup role by mid-2007 at the latest. In any case, one of the veterans you mention could be traded to make room for a prospect burning up the minors.

1. Furcal
2. Mueller
3. Drew
4. Kent
5. Outfielder Trade/Sign
6. Choi
7. Cruz/Ledee
8. Navarro

On the surface, that actually seems pretty formidable.

The major league team still needs an OF and pitching. Some of you worry toooo much about the minor leaguers and draft picks.

54
"The Dodgers will be better next year (not saying much, I know), they will compete for the division title (again, not saying much), and could even be halfway good." -- I agree, but the same good have been said for a healthy version of the 2005 club.

"I'm still worried about our outfield," -- so am I. Seems like it would have been a much better place to spend millions, than the IF. Starting pitching was a higher priority as well.

If McCourt has turned into moneybags overnight, fine. Otherwise I worry that Ned. isn't spending the limited funds very wisely -- and he is costing valuable draft choices.

re 53

so far, we have lost our second round pick to the braves for furcal, our 3rd rounder to the sox for mueller.

if weaver signs with another team, lets say for example the angels. we would get the #26 overall pick to go along with a first round compensation pick.

so basically, if we dont sign anymore Type A or B free agents and if weaver signs with another team, at the end of the day, we will still have 3 picks in the first 3 rounds.

60 Fair enough, there still lies the big question of how much we would be paying Mueller to sit on the bench in this scenario. Between Mueller, Izturis, and Saenz, the Dodgers could potentially have 8-10 million dollar on the bench, and have no outfield depth with the departure of Cruz and Ledee.

Of course, it's far to soon to worry about things like that.

Some charmingly hysterical posts on this topic already. I love the screaming the Dodgers have been "raped" (lovely word) because they traded an "all-star caliber" (really?) CF, and the hysteria over Furcal's money...a lot more troubling if it were out-of-proportion to the market (it isn't) or for, say, five years with or without an out clause. I think this is all to the good, rendering us competitive and then some in our weak division next year and then...well, we'll see. The assumption the prospects are all gonna arrive simultaneously (unlikely) and pan out at once (more so) to lead us to a dynasty (even more so) is just a wee bit fanciful, isn't it? Other than signing Giles--and Lord knows, he tried--Mr. Ned is doing the best we might expect, and I'd go so far as to wager we'd be a lot less comfortable with the presumably "bolder" moves DePo might be making.

That's an imponderable, of course. And it's not our comfort now that matters either, but that's another topic.

How many of our current top prospects were drafted in the first 3 rounds?

a lot of them in fact.

billingsley- first round
tiffany- 2nd round
elbert- first round
dewitt- first round
loney- first round
orenduff- first round
broxton- second round
miller- first round

just off the top of my head.

Question: Does anyone know what happened to or will happen to Nakamura?

I promise, when it's time to get hysterical, I'll let you all know.

67-Ahhhhhh!

67-I wasnt aware that the first rounds were that critical, What is the success rate of draft picks picked up during the first 5 rounds?

Could all these free agent signings we've made in the last 2 yrs have a noticable negative affect on the future of our farm system?

72 - Considering Mr. Ned's hesitancy to deal any of the prospects away so far, I think that the strength of the farm system will be fine. If he can break Boras and sign Hochevar, it will look a little better too.

Could all these free agent signings we've made in the last 2 yrs have a noticable negative affect on the future of our farm system?

it depends. but with logan white i am not too worried. he has a knack for findint he late round gems:
laroche- 39th
martin- 17th
kemp- 6th
denker- 23rd

but im not too worried about the 2006 draft if weaver signs elsewhere. if he signs with the angels, the dodgers will have picks #7, #26, and probably #33.

3 picks in the top 40 will do wonders in helping the farm system.

54 I agree with this. As I just wrote in an email to a friend,

"the remarkable thing is that Colletti has improved the 2006 team marginally, has convinced the media that he's done even better than that, and has done so without sacrificing a single prospect. So far, not so bad. And look at all the bad signings he hasn't made: Soriano, Pierre, Burnett, Beckett, Thome....

I think I agree with nate about Perez. Recall that all the clamor to play him last year (from us) was because the alternatives were Edwards or Robles. Screaming that AP was better than those guys is not inconsistent with admitting that he was not starter-quality when the alternatives improved.

At this point, a decent 4th OFer to at least platoon with Ledee shouldn't be hard to find. The key, for me, is how Colletti deals with 1b (my hope is that he does nothing) and SP. And how much money he has for the pitching part of it.

Thanks Nate.

In terms of the Bradley deal, I think we all have to remember that Colletti was in a horrible negotiating position. The A's, Cubs, and Pirates certainly knew that McCourt was not willing to let Bradley play in 06'. Evidence of McCourts unwillingness to let Bradley play is the fact that Colletti didn't even botherto talk to Bradley or Kent to smooth over situation. Regardless of whether or not he is a great baseball player, he is without a doubt, a PR nightmare which is the last thing McCourt needs right now. I agree Perez was an unfortunate player to give up, but we have several young players that can easily fill his role.

I was incredibly skeptical at first; however, I am really starting to like Colletti. This is a great year to sign free agents given our high pick.

When rumors of that we were getting kirk sarloos or todd walker or corey patterson, getting andre ethier basically made my day.

Lets say weaver signs somewhere else and we end up signing Washburn does that void the pick we were given witht the waever signing? Or what happens to our draft status if Nomah is signed? I'm asking this because I'm a little worried as to what our farm will look like once these super kids begin their dynasty.

Travis Denker went to my high school.

basically, getting ethier solidfies that we will have 9 prospects in BAs top 100 this spring.

washburn and nomar were NOT offered arbitration, so we would not lose any picks.

sanders and lofton were not offered arbitration either. im not sure about millwood though.

Travis Denker went to my high school.

denker has a funny picture on myspace.

One guy I wish Neddy would have, and I think could have, gotten from Beane is Kielty. His overall numbers aren't that great, but his splits against lefties are pretty good (3 year average against .296/.388/.504/.892). He could be platooned with Ledee.

Harry Kingman went to my high school.

See, Bob - I finally remembered!

I knew I had to get off myspace when I got in an argument on the phone about a comment I made on it.

Despite the fact that my high school was very good in baseball (number one in the nation in 2000), the only major leaguer to come out of it is Sean Barry.

From that number one team, only one player got drafted, and he flamed out after hitting .150 in rookie ball for the Tigers.

I was surprised when I found out that Denker was a regarded prospect for the Dodgers. He's pretty short, particularly for a 1B.

with vasquez going to the white sox and garland and contereras being impending FAs after next season, one of them, or maybe both will be on the block since they have brandon mccarthy ready to take a rotatin spot.

so my question, what would you guys give up for garland or conteras?

Does anyone think that Nomar has a chance to sign and play left field?

What are our other viable options in the outfield. Nobody here likes Jones.

denker played 2b last yr for the dodgers SAL team and lead the league in walks, and had an OPS over 900 with 20+homeruns.

the dbacks just got more scary for the future. chris young, carlos quentin, conor jackson, stephen drew and justin upton!?! my god, that is sick offensive potential.

88-ODP,DJH,EJ,Jason Phillips to catch this pitchers pack and heck throw in Drew McCourt for Garland.

89 Doesn't it seem inevitable that Nomar will become a Yankee? 5 years ago, there was a "Holy Trinity" of SSs. It would be par for the course if they all ended up as Yankees, with the worst of the 3 defensively actually playing SS. Tejada can't be far behind, can he?

Has anyone else noticed that without Grabowski and Phillips our lineup could now only have to possible Jasons in it at any given time?

93--I won't feel safe until we're rid of Repko.

90--"Potential" would be the key word here, for them as for us.

I don't think Neddy likes Jones either. In one of these Mueller articles he remarks JJ is "asking more than we're comfortable with." So there's a possible bullet dodged.

John Donovan article on SI.com: "Picking up the pieces: Colletti looks to salvage Dodgers' turbulent offseason"

http://tinyurl.com/avfnu

Not too much new there, but it's interesting the press we're getting now.

A little look-see at Bill Mueller over the past three years...
Bats: Switch hitter
Age: Will be 35 in spring training.

ave/obp/slg/ops

2003:
Road: 309/373/530/903
Home: 342/420/549/969

LHP: 295/375/520/895
RHP: 342/409/550/959

Road doubles: 14, Road HRs: 13
Home doubles: 31, Home HRs: 6

2004:
Road: 225/319/319/638
Home: 344/413/579/993

LHP: 255/301/409/710
RHP: 298/395/466/861

Road doubles: 10, Road HRs: 3
Home doubles: 17, Road HRs: 9

2005:
Road: 307/380/410/790
Home: 283/358/450/808

LHP: 275/346/373/719
RHP: 302/378/451/829

Road doubles: 15, Road HRs: 4
Home doubles: 19, Home HRs: 6
----------------------------------
A few things that stick out are...
1. Mueller hits RHP better than LHP. So it might be nice to have a right handed hitting backup.
2. Mueller hit terrible away from Fenway park in 2004, mildly worse in 2003, but in 2005 his home/road splits were almost even.
3. Mueller tended to hit more doubles at Fenway park than on the road. Does Dodger Stadium suppress doubles?
4. Mueller's OPS the last two seasons away from Fenway Park were .638 and .790 nothing that Willy Aybar couldn't probably do.
5. At 35 years of age, can we expect to see a decline in his offensive production over the next year+.

Thoughts to ponder. vr, Xei

95 - I read that this morning. I'm uncomfortable with the implication that DePodesta would have done nothing to improve the team this offseason. But maybe I'm misreading between the lines.

Anyone going to the home opener this year better give Bill Mueller a standing ovation. By choosing to sign with the Dodgers, he prevented Ned from trading Duaner Sanchez for David Bell. I've just become a huge Bill Mueller fan.

One possible good thing about making these signings that block our prospects is that it allows time for our prospects to develop in the minor leagues and doesn't start the major league service clock too early. If the Dodgers had let Beltre develop in the minors for a couple more years rather than rushed him to the majors he might have had his career year with more time on his service clock rather than the year before he became a free agent. I'm assuming that this is the approach Beane took with Dan Johnson who looked like he might have been ready over a year ago. Now Beane has Johnson for 5 more years for cheap right when he's entering his prime production years. The downside to this strategy is that you may miss out on a rookie year from a prospect like Pujols or Cabrera. Rookie years which could really help your big league team. But I would argue that those cases are rare and that it is generally better to bring up your young guys a year or two too late than a year or two too early. Kinda sucks and could be frustrating for the talented prospect who believes he's ready though, e.g., B.J. Upton.

Todd Donaon will not be a Dodgers farmhand in 2006, the Indians have signed him (to a minor league contract)

re 98

seriously. i totally forgot about that horrible rumor. well now mr ned has no use for david bell. Duaner is safe!

99 - That was a cornerstone of DePo's approach.

96 One thing that really concerned me about Mueller is comparing his slugging percentage before he became a Red Sox with his slugging percentage with the Red Sox. In the last three full seasons he played before going to Boston, his isolated power was .072, .120, and .132. Some of those numbers are from the long past however, due to his constant injuries.

What does everyone think about D.J. Houlton? What do scouts say? Can he be effective as a fifth or even a fourth pitcher? He seemed to have pretty good stuff last year. What do you think the Dodgers plan to do with him?

The Indians continue to raid our minor league FAs. Jose Flores will join Todd Donovan

I don't know if it's been discussed but Mueller can also play 2nd base. So could Perez, but at least there is that option should someone need to recognize it.

104 - The most important thing to remember about Houlton is that he is not guaranteed a roster spot as he was last year. He should simply be thrown into the mix as a potential 5th guy (along with CBill, EJax, and any NRI's that Ned brings in).

If Colletti can bundle some of those prospects for Abreu or Dunn, then i'll like our team alot more.

IF looks ok assuming we dont sign JT Snow.

OF is still very weak. Even putting Nomar or Reggie Sanders wont make a huge difference to it.

Colletti needs to bite the bullet and package some guys for Abreu, before some of the prospects start losing value.

94 Exactly. The Dbacks definitely have some great talent in the minors, and I'm sure at least two of them will have an impact on their team next year. However, who knows how many others will (or, yes, with our prospects either), and meanwhile Arizona otherwise looks a little directionless right now. Perhaps they are a year or so away from being a contender.

(Or is that no lo contendre?)

I'm also thinking those Joey Gaithright rumors are just that at this point. They may have had credence to them earlier but now that we've traded for Ethier, it just seems like a false rumor in the ether, and makes no sense, either.

c

104. I like Houlton better than Jackson. And I like Houlton better than Weaver primarily based on salary.

I'd say DJ will have the #5 spot going into ST. He'd have to pitch really bad to lose it.

99. I believe you can only hold prospects down for so long before they have to be put on the 40 man roster and lost to Rule V draft. CMIIW. By the way, which recent signing(s) is blocking which prospect(s)? vr, Xei

95 - Just read the story. It sparks this thought: Ned should really look to trade Choi right now, while there's still the "upside" of his potential, since, whether he does good or bad, he's heading for the bench (and Kent for 1b) when Izturis comes back. I'd have thought before that he should look to trade Kent, but the Bradley trade and Ned's talking to everyone but Bradley, solidified in my mind that Kent is staying ... and possibly re-upping as well.

108-What prospects would you trade for Abreu or Dunn? Considering we just built our infield around short contracts veterans to provide felxibility for kids, if we trade them away that presents some major infield holes in 2 yrs.

houltons 4 yrs older than jackson.

97 I read that article the same way you did.

101 - Duaner Sanchez for Kenny Lofton!!

116 - Brazoban for Jason Michaels!!

Duaner Sanchez for Chase Utley!

If Houlton isn't put on the roster does he go down to AA or AAA? Is he on the 40 man? How many innings do starters pitch in spring training? It seems strange to rely strictly on small sample size spring training performance to determine a starter for the season (nice alliteration).

Toronto fell out of the bidding to get Brad Wilkerson from Texas, because Texas had the audacity to ask for more than Miguel Batista.

I'd throw any non-(Billingsley/Broxton) pitcher to Texas for Wilkerson. He could play any of the OFs, as well as 1B.

My new neighbor Bad Altitude has a snapshot about the NL West that might interest you.

https://badaltitude.baseballtoaster.com/archives/302298.html

Brazoban + Choi for wilkerson. Start the season with

Mueller-3B
Furcal-SS
Aybar-2B
Kent-1B
Wilkerson-RF
Drew-Ctr
Ledee/Cruz-LF
Navaroo/Alamar-C

Bullpen- Gagne,Broxton,Sanchez,Kuo,Schmoll and Wunsch.

What happened to Giovanni?

Re: Losing draft choices. On one of the A's blogs--probably Catfish Stew--the writer pointed out that Beane was being unusually active in the first-tier FA market this year with his signing of Loiza and some other rumored moves. It was pointed out that the 2006 draft isn't considered a particularly strong one, and that Beane might think if he has to skip one, this is the one. Is that what you all think? Does this figure into Logan White's counsel to Colletti regarding FA signings?
----
Re: Colletti rude to Bradley? I just noticed this little twist in the story on the MLB article today:

"Colletti said he tried to mediate the Bradley situation and find a way to keep him with the Dodgers. But in talking to 'people close to Bradley,' it became apparent to Colletti that Bradley wanted out.... 'The more information I received, the more it became clear it was irreconcilable. In the conversations I had, it was so definitively strong that in his case, his interest was in moving on.'

1. People close to Bradley...like his agent or business manager? His mother? That's a decent proxy for the man himself.

2. If anyone thinks a call would've persuaded Bradley to stay, put yourself in Colletti's shoes, reading these talking points: "Hey Milt, our owner wants me to trade you, and you don't want to be here. What can we work out so you'll stay?"

I don't know if Gandhi would've made that called if he was Dodgers' GM.

---

"I guess im one of the few here that does not see antonio perez as anything special."

Not the only one. He was the one-eyed man in the land of the blind in 2005. He was also another symbol of Tracy rage. Deep breath. Time to let it go. Colletti did the right thing, sending AP to a team that might put him on the Opening Day roster. He clearly wasn't going to.

111 - Players who are signed before or at the age of 18 do not have to put on the 40 man roster until the 4th Rule V draft after they are signed, it does not matter if they are injured during that time frame. That is why Greg Miller (Signed in 2002) was put on the 40 man roster this November and why Mike Megew was able to be drafted (Signed in 2002). If you 19 or older you have only 3 years, which is why Andy LaRoche who was signed in 2003 had to put on the 40 man roster this year.

Prospects who have to put on the 40 man roster in the next 2 years include, Billingsley, Chuck Tiffany, Matt Kemp, Scott Elbert, Justin Orenduff, Blake DeWitt, Cory Dunlap, and Chin-Lung Hu.

Is there any sourcing/confirmation of the Dodgers' being close to signing Lofton (per Rotowire)?

119 - If Houlton isn't put on the roster does he go down to AA or AAA?

--Whatever the Dodgers prefer. My guess is AAA.

Is he on the 40 man?

--Yes.

How many innings do starters pitch in spring training?

--They usually start at a couple of innings and extend by an inning or so with each start.

It seems strange to rely strictly on small sample size spring training performance to determine a starter for the season (nice alliteration).

--I completely agree.

Hey, why aren't we going after Julio Franco?
:-)

127 - Because we have Manny Mota, silly.

113. Billz + C-level prospect for Adam Dunn. This would also include a contract extension for Dunn.

Odalis Perez, Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton for Bobby Abreu.

127 Mets already signed him...for 2 years...

129- Billingsly isnt an option to be traded according to Ned. But assuming we make both these trades, then what? we have a rotation of Penny, Lowe and then what?

Small journalism annoyances from a stay-at-home-papa who has some lazy time on his hands:

From the ticker on the Dodgers' signing of Mueller (which I think is great, btw):

"Because of his age, Boston did not want to make a long-term commitment to Mueller, electing to part ways with the professional hitter and clubhouse presence"

Who writes this stuff? Aren't all paid position players professional hitters (well ok, maybe not Grabowski)? Don't they all have a clubhouse presence (well ok, maybe not Odalis)? Are the Red Sox devoid of professional hitters and really, was Bill the only guy in the clubhouse? Where are the modifiers?

Of course what the story meant to impart, and which we all understood in spite of the writing, was that Mueller is a good, consistent hitter and a positive clubhouse presence - so why didn't the story just say that? Arrrgh.

131. I wouldnt make both of them. I'd make one of them.

That way we keep either Billz or Brox.

If we get Dunn for Billz, I'd make the rotation: Penny, Perez, Lowe, Houlton, Broxton.

If we got Abreu, the rotation would be:
(Penny, Lowe, Billz, Houlton, Orenduff)

When all other logic failed (basically Jon's post regarding VORP and players brought in vs players going out), my buddy would say, Depodesta failed because he brought in so many new players.

Our roster was great in 2004 and he blew it up. He would say.

So I e-mailed my buddy and said, it's not even 06 yet and so far we have a brand new SS, 3b, CF or RF with first base and left field to follow shortly. Navarro, Drew and Kent should be the only starters from last year left. And heck, all three are DEPO guys so who knows if THEY even make it to 06. Heck we may be without Perez and Weaver too...so much for the to much change is bad argument cause I have yet to get a reply.

134 - The counterargument is going to be that there's no harm in tearing up a 91-loss team.

I maintain that DePodesta was not tearing up a division winner, that winning teams go through changes like DePodesta made all the time. But your buddy, I would think, is likely to respond along the lines of my first sentence.

And before you think putting two rookies into the rotation is a death sentence, consider this.

The A's took their lumps with Haren and Blanton at the beginning of last season.

I believe Orenduff/Billz could be comparable to those two.

109 Wow. You gotta be impressed by a guy who can use "either," "Ethier," and "ether" in the same post, with no typos. "Ethereal" would have just been gravy....

Nice work, underdog.

134,135

Yeah. Depo dismantled a team that won 93 games and a division title, and had a number of popular players. Ned is dismantling a team that won 71 games and had a bunch of stiffs that no one really cared about except for their mothers.

136 Haren had big league expirence prior to this year, and Blanton at least was a September callup.

Neither Orenduff nor Billingsly has touched the majors.

138 - By the way, the counter-counterargument is that DePo was dismantling a team that, left untouched, also would have become a team that won 71 games and had a bunch of stiffs that no one really cared about except for their mothers.

The point is..and I didn't really articulate it well is that he would always agree with me. This was going on well before we reached 91 losses.

I would say, do you really want Alex Cora over Jeff Kent. No, of course not he would say.

Ok, so would you rather have Steve Finley or JD Drew...Drew, of course.

And so on. Then it would come down to, look you just can't win with all that change. He had a bigger problem with that, then the actual players brought in.

#141 The countercountercounter-argument is not so much Kent vs Cora or Drew vs Finley, but rather Valentine et al. vs Beltre and Phillips vs Lo Duca. ;)

When all other logic failed

Must have been a short conversation

138..yeah I am sure you (and not just their mothers) just love and care so much about Furcal and Mueller. What the heck is the difference between them and say JD Drew and Valetin?

(the first guy in each case is overpaid and the second guy is an aging stop gap 3b)

137 Hee! Thanks - someone had to do it. (Well, not really.) I keep staring at his name thinking it is a typo. If he hits, I don't care if his name is Although or Thusly, as long as he hits.

130 2 years for Franco, that'll just about take him into gold watch retirement age I think.

The difference between Mueller and Valentin? Besides that Mueller is a lifetime .295 hitter and former batting champion you mean? Well, certainly Valentin partially didn't pan out because of injuries, but I'm not so sure he would've done much even if healthy. Mueller's a little younger, too, no?

Anyway, this is like evaluating the NFL draft the day after the draft. Check back in a couple of years for a better sense.

112. JJoeScott - It sparks this thought: Ned should really look to trade Choi right now, while there's still the "upside" of his potential, since, whether he does good or bad, he's heading for the bench (and Kent for 1b) when Izturis comes back.

Well, if Colletti thinks that Choi is a stiff, then you're right, he should trade him now while his much-ballyhooed potential is diluted by actual game-time stiffosity.

But if Colletti thinks that Choi is a good player, he should showcase him for that first 3 months, and get more for him once his potential has translated into actual production.

Or better yet, showcase him, trade Izturis, and then showcase him some more.

I realize that Mueller is a different ballplayer than Valentin. I have/had no problem with either signing.

I just knew when I wrote that someone would say what you said (basically) so I am not being critical..But Mueller, coming into this year has not had 5 straight seasons of 25 or more homeruns either as did Valentin when we got him...so my point wasn't really about the stats or the background, but at the end of this year someone could say that furcal and Mueller are stiffs that were brought in that only a mother would love.

PLEASE STOP WITH THE DEPODESTA HINDSIGHT. For the love of god, the honeymoon, midlife crisis, and divorce are all OVER. If I never hear the words "well DePodesta would have done this..." again it will be too soon. Seriously, looking through half of the comments on the site now, it's the same damned argument rehashed forty different ways (once for each player on the roster). Please, I'm begging you all, before I pull a Steve-esque-self-immolation, quit it.

147
I'd like to see Ned sign Choi to a three-year showcase.

149

Like the "Cora would have gotten to that" canard, I think the "DePodesta would have ..." line will eventually run its course and die of exhaustion.

150 -I'd like to see Ned sign Choi to a three-year showcase.

I would like to see Choi's production based on starting everyday for '06 before I would do that.

152
I think Hee would flourish under less pressure.

149 - DePodesta was mentioned in three comments on this thread. Three.

148 Ah, sorry! I pretty much misunderstood all of that. :-) I do stand by my last statement of course - none of us will know how successful any of these moves are for another year or two.

Btw, I'm curious about these suggestions that Nomar be signed to play outfield. (Heard rumors that Yanks are pursuing him for that purpose, too.) I'd be a little worried about it... but has he played enough OF in the past for people to think that he'd be solid out there? And I wonder about a position switch affecting his hitting...

I'd prefer Sanders, meself. (Not Deon.)

149 - I think DePo would have dissected your rant analytically and suggested that what is really at work is some internal guilt over his having been dismissed prematurely.

Just a thought.

156 - DePo would have thought that was a funny retort.

no worries underdog!!

Any update on the WWDHD bracelets?

154--Don't let the facts get in the way of a good rant.

134. jasonungar05

There is a cardinal rule that when you are in a pennant race that you do not take a starting player off the field to acquire a pitcher. (true, sometimes that rule is broken) But DePo took two starting players off the field. (plus a top flight setup man) He never filled the catcher position but got Finley B4 the end of that season.

The stability of the team was shaken and eventually broken. A big turnover was need to fix it. Like I said elsewhere: The DePodesta regime left the Dodgers with so few desirable major leaguers that it is hard to believe.

161 I don't know, the Dodgers still did pretty good despite losing every aspect of that trade either through injury or buffonery.

161 - "There is a cardinal rule that when you are in a pennant race that you do not take a starting player off the field to acquire a pitcher."

I have never heard this rule. Did I just miss it?

Anyway, DePodesta brought in Finley and Choi simultaneous to giving up LoDuca and Encarnacion. So I'm not sure your math is right. You're right that catcher became a problem, but for a good cause.

I am interested to hear people's opinions on how good this team is. To me we still are not that good because we lack pitching and power, but we still have a shot in the NL West because it is so bad.

163
I have never heard this rule. Did I just miss it?

I thought you, of all people, would be familiar with Cardinal rules...

Sorry if this was posted already but I couldn't find it. ESPN/BA's chat with John Manuel was today and although I can't access the transcript, not being an ESPN insider (maybe one of you can), the very first response was posted for free, and was about Bradley and Ethier.

These are just Manuel's thoughts off the top of his head:

"Andre Ethier was traded away for Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez. What's your view on this trade, and what can we expect from each of these players next year? Good way to start, it's been such an active trade market. This one's a head scratcher for me. Bradley for Ethier makes sense; the Dodgers just had to move on with Bradley, and Ethier is a solid prospect, great year, kind of a tweener. Why Antonio Perez was thrown in by the Dodgers, with nothing in return there, I don't know that answer. I was surprised. Ethier was in the A's top 10 prospects (still will be, the Prospect Handbook is so close to going to press, we have to stick to our transaction deadline) and will not make the Dodgers' top 10. Perez could be in Oakland's 2B mix in '06, and Bradley probably hits in the middle of their order. On paper, the A's come out ahead here."

After that, I can't read the rest. If there's anything Dodger-related in there, and you're an "insider," let us know!

161 How many "major leaguers" would DePo have left us with if he did nothing.

Green - If you don't consider Choi (which I'm guessing you don't) a big leaguer, forget Green
Cora - Nope
Beltre - Nope
Roberts - Pushing it
LoDuca - Again pushing it
Mota - Nope

Is that every one?

If by "desired major leaguer" you mean "largely overrated player" then yes, DePo got rid of most of those guys.

163. Jon Weisman

I guess so...

It wasn't a math problem. It was a position problem. Choi couldn't catch.

For what it's worth (perhaps not much), Mueller didn't put up better numbers than Valentin until he moved to Fenway Park in the past 6 years. Mueller's OPS jumped from .757 in 2002 to .938 in 2003 (his first year in Boston) which was at the age of 32. Valentin on the otherhand has seen his OPS decline in each of the past four consecutive years. Niether is much to write home about. I get a kick out of people mentioning that Mueller was a former batting champion, when we #1 know that batting average isn't near the top of the list of best offensive production measuring sticks, and #2 if he didn't do so as a Dodger then who cares. vr, Xei
vr, Xei

165 - That's why I was surprised :)

168 - I was just saying that your notion that the Dodgers took two starting players off the field was an exaggeration.

170. Jon Weisman

They lost a catcher and OF. Got a first baseman that they didn't need and later traded for Finley.

Two players off the field = well you know.

How about this 2006 Dodger lineup:

LF-Dave Roberts
SS-Cesaer Izturis
1B-Shawn Green
3B-Adrian Beltre
RF-Juan Encarnacion
C- Paul LoDuca
CF-Steve Finley
2B-Alex Cora

Rotation: Brown, Lima, OPerez, ??, ??

vr, Xei

161 The 2004 Red Sox blew up their clubhouse at the deadline and won it all.

172 122-40. Easy.

172. wow! Talk about undesireable major leaguers. :) vr, Xei

Fallout, they got Finley within 24 hours of trading LoDuca - after which they traded Dave Roberts. They were never down a starting position player except at catcher. They had Green, Werth, Choi, and Roberts/Finley.

You're just being disengenuous now with this concept of "later traded for Finley."

Plus it was pretty obvious that we needed and were trying to get an ACE type arm in the big unit. We still need that type pitcher. As a fallback, we had Penny (or we thought) who had some big wins for the FISH when they won the WS.

It didn't happen the way it was planned, but the thought behind it wasn't so bad. If it did who knows, maybe we win more than 1 playoff game.

if we kept Loduca but didn't get Finley, we probabaly don't even win the west in 2004

Not sure if this has been posted yet:
catcher Jason Phillips and first baseman Choi are being shopped.
From the Bill Mueller article in the LA Times

Somebody please save Ned from signing JT Snow!

I am sure teams are chomping at the bit to trade for Jason Phillips. Flanders you fool, how can you get rid of one of the three people on this team who has power right now (Choi, Kent, and Drew).

176 - and Bradley. How quickly I forget.

176. Jon Weisman

Hey that's not fair. I don't know how to underline.

I thought that it took longer to get Finley.(my mistake)

But anyway it wasn't good to shakeup the starting lineup like he did. It seems to me that DePo was so high on Choi that he was willing to breakup a winning team to fit him in.

Now we can talk about lost chemistry. :)

134 There is a cardinal rule that when you are in a pennant race that you do not take a starting player off the field to acquire a pitcher.

I've never heard that rule either, and if it IS a conventional wisdom, it's an enormously stupid one. The question of whether the swap of a position player for a pitcher is a good one depends entirely on who those players are, and who the alternatives to them are.

This is just the sort of drivel that advanced baseball research is terrific at putting to the test. Some of the conventional wisdom will turn out to be supported by the facts. But a lot will be (has been) shown to be rubbish. This one might actually be accurate on average (that most such swaps turn out badly for the team getting the pitcher), but if so, it is not right because it is logically sound.

Now, put a couple HUGE qualifiers on it, and it might be closer to plausible, but also rendered moot:

1. The pitcher and the position player are of equal ability, but the former will play much less often than the latter, and therefore be less valuable, AND
2. The replacement for the pos'n player is of equal talent to the guy the pitcher would replace.

If he can actually trade Phillips for anyone breathing, we'll take it! I can't believe they'd be shopping him and Choi, though. There's no way Saenz plays every day (even if Kent eventually does take over 1B)...

but trading Phillips - by gum, there's a sucker born every minute!

182 - To be fair, Fallout did say that sometimes the rule was broken.

181. AARGH! The purpose of that trade was Penny. We needed starting pitching, and DePo said so. Not his fault that Penny only made one start before that freak injury.

178 He can shop anyone he wants at any time. Just as long as he doesn't actually MAKE bad deals.

179 Believe it or not, one "champs" at the bit. One "chomps" on a roast beef sandwich.

181 - But anyway it wasn't good to shakeup the starting lineup like he did. It seems to me that DePo was so high on Choi that he was willing to breakup a winning team to fit him in.

Why are you even arguing about this? DePo broke up the team but the new team still won in 2004. Then in the offseason we let go of Finley and Finley completely tanked. Lo Duca didn't do all that great. Mota tanked. The players we traded Finley for weren't very good. Penny will outperform Lo Duca and Mota by himself. Choi was just gravy.

Flashback time. Maybe Mark was right.

185 Well while you're nitpicking, 109 didn't actually use "Ethier" and "ether" in the same sentence.

From Ken Rosenthal:

"What would Williams want for Garland or Contreras? Hard to say. The White Sox's bullpen is thinner after the trades of Vizcaino and left-hander Damaso Marte. Williams surely is musing about a run at Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada. And he almost certainly would seek young pitching in any deal.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5167730

Broxton and Braz? Duaner? I'm open.

185 Well while you're nitpicking, 109 didn't actually use "Ethier" and "ether" in the same sentence.

I'm glad someone else has picked up my nitpicking duties.

177. jasonungar05

True, to win in the playoffs you must have "ACE" arms. Remember though, he was supposed to be traded for R. Johnson. One of two misteps in The Trade.

I was glad however, that the trade didn't happen. Johnson wasn't going to make the Dodgers the WS Champs but Penny should be around for a while.

if we kept Loduca but didn't get Finley, we probabaly don't even win the west in 2004

You can't be serious.

Not only did I double-post like a newbie, but I wrong both times. Strike it! Strike it all!

187 - Sorry. Some things are hard to resist.

To echo what somebody else said, I hope Mr. Ned doesn't trade one of the 3 guys left that actually has power...

185-
I never understood that saying, maybe because I got it wrong all this time.

Who wants to take bets we do not have a player hit 25 home runs?

Wow, that was kinda funky how my post slipped in between bigcpa's double. Just a little DePodesta nitpicking.

192 we probabaly don't even win the west in 2004

Why is this so implausible? We won the thing by 1 game which we trailed 3-0 in the 9th. Bradley/Werth/Finley had more to do with the 2004 division chompionship than any 2003 carryovers not named Beltre.

193 - "I wrong" is right.

192.

why cant he be serious? wasnt it finley who hit the division winning grand slam on the last day of the season? would loduca have done the same?

184 I'm not blaming Fallout for the rule, if indeed there be such a conventional wisdom. He's just the messenger. But even to believe that there should be such a rule of thumb is to believe that in an impied "other things equal" caveat that is almost never going to be true.

That's an even dumber rule than "always IBB a batter when first base is open and there's a runner on 2nd." Really, the contribution of statistical research is to say, less pithily but more accurately: "there are conditions under which it will be advantageous to walk a batter intentionally in such a situtation, but you need to pay attention to teh number of outs, the abilities of the hitter being walked and the on-deck hitter, and so on.

Often, people object to statstical analysis for exactly the opposite reason that they claim. They claim (and here, I'm not talking about Fallout) that stats are too dry and stark, and that they miss the nuances of the game. In fact, multivariate analysis allows one to control much more carefully for all the nuances than does the canon of (mostly bivariate) "rules" known to all old-school baseball men as Gospel.

That's why any statement beginning with "there's a cardinal rule that..." drives me up a wall.

198 I should've mentioned the other cardinal rule. The original 10 visitors to this site are allowed to post without using the Preview feature. :)

old bear needs to stop trading billingsey+ c prospect away for adam dunn.

1- the dodgers are not trading billingsley

2- the reds would want way more then one top prospect and a filler.

201 - I was not aware of that rule. Is DePodesta one of them?

202- I agree. But we have plenty of good prospect arms as well as bullpen arms. We should be able to part with some of them.

I don't understand these repeated statements that Depo made "The Trade" in order to aquire Choi. This trade can best be looked at as LoDuca for Penny. Mota/Encarnacion and Choi were basically throw-ins, each team trying to dump players it didn't want any longer (of course Depo also wanted Choi, but I doubt he was the reason for the trade). And, let's not forget the prospects that came along and went to Arizona in the Finley trade.

In any event, it was basically a trade for a weak hitting, lousy defense, catcher who was about to make a lot of money for a possibly front of the rotation type starting pitcher. Considering how valuable pitching is, and how hard it is to get guys who can be dominant (particularly important for postseason play) I don't know how you wouldn't make that trade any day.

201 -

You know, I'm curious who the original 10 visitors to this site are. I can name the first three - my brother and two good friends - but the next seven spots might be up for grabs.

If you began reading Dodger Thoughts by January 2003, speak up. I believe I had something like 20 daily visitors at the end of that month.

Hey, all, I am Jack.

I have read the site since last year and I just got my account, so do not be disturbed by the 'new guy.'

191 - Great Moments in Nitpicking History, from Defamer.com:

(When it was released, the film's posters said The 40 Year-Old Virgin. Here is a message from someone who worked on the project.)

I'm so glad I'm not alone in my disgust for the improper hyphenation on "The 40-Year-Old Virgin." However, I must set the record straight: it was not home video's "eagle-eyed proofreaders" who caught the problem. I am a proofreader for a company that produces most of Universal's print advertising, and our department begged and pleaded with Universal to correctly punctuate this movie title. First they wanted no hyphens, then they wanted the two (correct) hyphens — and we rejoiced. Then, in a cruel twist, they decided to go with ONE HYPHEN, making the title scarily incorrect. (We're venturing into "40 one-year-old virgins" territory here, the implications of which are distressing.) No style guide could stop Universal from choosing this incorrect punctuation.

It hurts me to see the title correctly hyphenated for the DVD release — why couldn't it have been like that all along? Dear god, why????

202. i know, he's been barking up that tree since july. aint going to happen.

do we know how much money Mueller is getting paid? i cant see how people can form opinions of this deal without knowing how much we signed him for.

207 - Hi Jack!

I was visiting Catfish Stew and I got a link to a blog. I just checked it again today and it had a really funny fact about Ned Colletti.

You guys have to see it!!:

http://sabrdodgers.blogspot.com/2005/12/fun-fact-you-will-only-get-on-this.html

206
Are there no comments in the archives?

old bear is famous on the dodgers.com board for not giving a darn about prospects. his motto a yr and a half ago? "trade them all, they havent proved themselves yet!"

I'm having a hard time remembering when I started my addiction to Dodger Thoughts. I'm on the DL with a bad cold so my brain is working even less efficiently. I think it was some time in the off-season after 2003. It took me awhile to start posting too.

I do believe that L.A. Observed was my gateway drug here though.

Xiefrank - sorry for the delayed response. They're not huge blocks because their deals are relatively short but Mueller conceivably blocks LaRoche or Guzman and Furcal blocks Guzman. It seems to me that some GM's would have considered throwing LaRoche or Guzman out there now to see if they could get production for cheap with rookies making minimum and then spend money elsewhere. By the way, delaying starting the clock on players may only apply to hitters. Since it's possible that pitchers only have a certain amount of pitches in their arms it may be wise to use them up at the major league level rather than the minor league level.

oh yea soo...... whos our pitching coach, hitting coach, bench coach, 3b coach and 1st base coach?

John,

I can't remember when I started reading, but I do remember the days that I used to get hits to my non-baseball site from your sitemeter readings. Does that make me one of the 20 or so per day?

does anyone think that this Mueller signing might signal the end of Hee Seop Choi? perhaps Colletti is planning to use Aybar at 2B, and move Kent over to 1B.

212 - Comments weren't a Dodger Thoughts option until 2004.

216
Pitching coach - Red Adams
Hitting coach - Dixie Walker
Bench coach - Monty Basgall
3rd base coach - Danny Ozark
1st base coach - Jim Gilliam

217 - I do remember your name from ways back. I used that sitemeter until I came to Toaster this year, though.

217 For some reason, I added the "h" to Jon. My apologies.

$9.5 million for Mueller, according to AP. Not sure how that's divided per year, yet.

from the BA texas league chat about ethier:

Q: Austin from San Francisco asks:
Andre Ethier has always been a good hitter for avg but he more than doubled his HR output this year. Was it a result of playing in the Texas League or has he really developed more power?

A: Will Lingo: I think playing in the Texas League can boost your numbers a bit, but Ethier does have legit power. He's a line-drive hitter so he won't ever be a huge home run guy, but he should hit 20-plus home runs a year with plenty of doubles. He is best off when he's not swinging for the fences and uses the whole field.

218 Hee Seop who? His name hasn't come up at all in today's comments.

basically, ethier is very similar to james loney. Projects to be a high average hitter with good plate discipline and has a ceiling of david justice.

$9.5 million is a very reasonable amount to pay for Mueller.

226-
Yeah that is what I basically said yesterday. If you like Loney you will like Ethier who has shown a little more pop than Loney. So I think it is safe to say that Logan White was in favor of this deal as he is a big Loney fan.

226 - Justice twice hit 40+ HR, twice slugged .580+, three times was in the top 10 for OPS+. I think your roof is a little high.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/justida01.shtml

226. natepurcell
...has a ceiling of david justice.

That's not bad...

192 dead serious.

I wasn't really thinking about one at bat...but Paulie's second half splits for his career follow.

Pre All Star .308 .362 .453 .815

Post All-Star .257 .312 .375 .687

well my line of thinking in the justice comparison is that both players have similar build, both have similar hitting styles. Justice has a minor league career slugging percentage of 431, so he developed his power as he matured. Thats where im trying to get at with ethier and loney. But have the projectabilty to develop power as they mature in their 20s.

granted, i dont expect either to slug 40 homers like justice. But both could concievable go 285/365/465 with 20-25 homeruns annually. solid, consistent production.

215. I don't see Furcal blocking Guzman at firstbase, as most people in the know have already pigeon-holed him as a firstbaseman or more than likely corner outfielder, due to his large frame. I don't believe Mueller is or will block LaRoche/Guzman or any other prospect at thirdbase. LaRoche played at AA last year and will probably play a full season at AAA this year. If LaRoche is ready to play 3B in 2007 (which is likely), then Mueller could be easily traded or moved into a backup role. The only way Mueller blocks LaRoche in 2007 is if Mueller reverts back to his batting title ways, which would be a good thing for the Dodgers. The only other way is if LaRoche doesn't perform well enough to take the position away. In 2007 all things being equal, I'd say LaRoche starts over Mueller at thirdbase. And by the way you cannot keep players in the minor league forever, they need to be added to the 40 man roster eventually or exposed to the Rule V draft and lost to some other team. You will have to do a google search for the exact wording of this rule.
vr, Xei

187 Jon Weisman

I really did not want to rehash The Trade either. I started out by replying to, 134 jasonungar05, to give another opinion but...

232 - If their conceivable ceiling is 25 HR and an .830 OPS, then David Justice is out of this conversation. Which is fine, but let's not damn Loney and Ethier with excessive praise.

I don't mind excessive praise. It's when people start comparing Loney to Darin Erstad that one should be concerned.

234 - I understand.

If their conceivable ceiling is 25 HR and an .830 OPS, then David Justice is out of this conversation

thats not what im saying their ceiling. their ceilings are both higher than that, but thats what someone could reasonably expect from them.

when justice was averaging a .431 slug in the minors, no one was expecting him to bust out and become a top slugger, but he had it in him.

thats all im saying. loney and ethier both have it in them, but settling in with those numbers i previously posted will be just fine and as a dodger fan, ill take it.

MLB.com said that Mueller earned $2.5 million in 2005. He did well for himself with this contract.

In high school I recall reading in my puny Baseball Digest about this prospect Jim Thome- "Line drive-hitting 3B that will hit for average without much power... Wade Boggs type." Thome hit 8 HR in 1991 between AA and AAA and 5 HR in 1992 between AA, AAA and MLB. Granted he was 21-22 those years, but still scouts didn't foresee his power explosion.

4.75 a yr for mueller is a little bit much for my taste. but if it takes 4.75 to land meuller and keep david bell away, then it was well worth it.

I will shut up as well!!

240
Steroids.

In case you are keeping track, if the $90 mil. limitation is to be the salary, then we are now very close to that mark (about 85 million) and could be done with significant cost additions (without a concurrent subtraction)

Would the 4.25 million difference between mueller vs aybar at 3b be better off put towards 1 of the 3 legit free agent starting pitchers (millwood washburn weaver).

yeah, Mueller did do well. The advantages of being a quality free agent.

I didn't know Mueller had such a high VORP in 2005 (32.3). My ass-u-mption is that the Dodgers paid a premium to get Mueller to sign the 2 year deal and passing up the 3 year offer from FJT. Then again, the thought of playing for FJT could've been all it took to pass on that offer.
vr, Xei

1) It is hard for me to believe in the accuracy of comparing players based off of build and swing (ie Loney and Justice). Not saying that it can not be accurate, because I can understand comparing Prince to his father Cecil, in terms of will Prince break down early. It seems like there are many players that could have the same build and swing, so which player do you compare them to?
2) I really do not like people talking about a minor league player's ceiling, because judging minor league players is far from an exact science. Who knows what a player could be capable of doing, I doubt anyone said Derek Lee had the type of ceiling that would make him produce a season like he had in 05. Predicting their preformances makes sense to me, but predicting their maximum performances I do not agree with.

Mr. Ned has invented a great negotiating tactic to get free agents to sign shorter deals -- give them all the money of a longer deal without requiring them to play for all those years. Brilliant.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2259316

dodgers still interested in nomar for lf or 1b. article states we are 1 of the 4 teams that are finalists for nomar.

I'm still neutral on Ned so far. Though, I will say I have been pleasantly surprised on a few occasions, since my expectations were extremely low coming in. I have been generally happy with the following moves or approaches.

1) Signing Furcal to displace Cesar Izturis, who is beloved by old school types. I like watching Izturis play baseball, especially on defense, but he's not a very good baseball player. I'm pleased that Ned recognized that Furcal improves the team now and in the future.

2) Getting a legitimate prospect in return for Bradley, instead of a "proven veteran". The other names being tossed around in the rumor mill were trash (Patterson, Walker, Saarloos). I really like Bradley, but I believe he was given more than a fair shot in LA and realistically there wasn't much of a market for him. I'm also not that upset about losing Perez since with his defensive shortcomings and relatively light bat, his upside is essentially marginal starter, useful utility guy. Both Aybar (younger, steadier, more upside) and Robles (steadier, more versatile) would rank ahead of him in this regard.

3) Not trading top prospects for "proven veterans". If Ned can trade for a legitimate star, he should definitely go for it. I'm just pleased he hasn't traded any top prospects for overhyped mediocrities (at least not yet).

4) Hiring Little instead of Fregosi. When members of the Braves organization say Little was one of the guys on their short list to replace Cox, I'm willing to give the guy a chance. With the Red Sox, he had trouble with pitching changes (which manager doesn't?), but at least he pencilled in the right starting lineup on a daily basis. In-game strategy is relatively meaningless no matter how good or bad you are at it. Topping all that off with being able to speak coherently is just a bonus.

The future (2007, 2008, and beyond) still looks very bright and even with the lineup as projected today, we look to be competitive in the extremely weak NL West.

One guy who might help in the outfield next season is Tydus Meadows (.274/.418/.495). He's a 28-year old minor-league veteran who offensively outperformed all of our AA prospects in Jacksonville last year. I'm believe he signed a minor league contract and I'm hoping he gets a long look in Spring Training as he could outperform Repko with (both?) his eyes closed.

251
I'm glad you mentioned Meadows. I've been wondering about him for a while. He seems to put up pretty big numbers, but seems to be overlooked (presumably because of his age).

251. Fearing Blue
I'm still neutral on Ned so far.

With all the positives you listed I'm surprised to see you are still neutral.

247 The Pittsburgh deal was reportedly $13.5 mil over 3 years, so only slightly less per year than what the Dodgers offered. In the end, Mueller wanted a competitor on the West Coast

253. haha! I didn't see them all as positives, but more as pick your poison. Instead of eating arsenic, the Dodgers are eating Draino.
vr, Xei

In the end, Mueller wanted a competitor on the West Coast

But the Angels weren't interested...

Everyone in the NL West is a competitor.

#233: To echo your point, LaRoche has only spent a half-season in AA so far, so expecting him to contribute significantly this year or even right out of the gate in 2007 may be premature. I believe he's going to be a solid ML 3B, but it's better to let him develop in the minors rather than being rushed and stunting his growth (see Beltre, Adrian). Mueller is better than Robles, Aybar, and Perez and probably more importantly, he's a lot less risky, which should allow the Dodgers some leeway with Choi and Navarro. I'd rather pay Mueller $9.50 million for 2 years than $11 or $12 million for 3.

If a player is signed at age 18 or younger, they get 4 years of minor league service time before they must be added to the 40-man roster. If a player is signed at age 19 or older, they only get 3 years. The team is then allowed three option years where they can shuffle the player back and forth between the 25-man and 40-man rosters. After the player is "out of options" he must be kept on the 25-man roster or waived.

249 That's a great point. My first reaction to the Furcal signing, amidst all the bravos to Colletti for freeing up room for prospects in three years, was well, the Cubs offered $50M for 5 yrs. Let's say the Dodgers could have gotten him for that (unlikely, but cannot be that far from the truth, maybe $55M for 5). On an average basis, we could get Furcal for his 32 and 33 year old seasons for an average of $5.5 million a year (11 mill more for 2 more years). Shouldn't we have done that deal? We could always have traded Furcal in three years when the SS prospect (I dunno who that is supposed to be) is ready. I mean, if he's worth $39 mill for these three years, he should be tradeable after those three years. Is it just me who's having trouble with Ned's logic? Same with Mueller. In other words, are Furcal and Mueller for $17.75 million better than something like Beltre and Robles for $12-13 mill? Even with Beltre's average production over his career, that has to be a better deal, I would think.

258 Why would you rather pay Mueller $9.5 mill for 2 years than $11 mill for 3? Isn't that last year, even as a backup worth the $1.5 million?

258
Mueller is better than Robles, Aybar, and Perez and probably more importantly, he's a lot less risky

He has had four knee operations, two on each knee.

http://tinyurl.com/dudj2

259 - Consider the length of the deal that Beltre would have signed to stay in L.A. He would be an average 3B for 5 more years, all while holding up promising younger (and cheaper) players.

#253: It may have been better to say that I'm still reserving judgement. I would be happy with the following roster for 2006:

Lineup:

SS Furcal
3B Mueller
CF Drew
2B Kent
LF Garciaparra (pretty please?)
1B Choi / Saenz
RF Cruz
C Navarro

Bench:
2B/3B Aybar
2B/SS Robles
OF Ledee
OF Werth
C Alomar Jr.

Rotation:
Penny
Lowe
Perez
Two of Houlton / Billingsley / Jackson / ??

Bullpen:
Gagne
Sanchez
Brazoban
Byung-Hyun Kim (pretty please?)
Broxton
Kuo

263
That rotation doesn't really bode well.

my hopefully lineup is basically the same as yours fearing blue.

#260: Perhaps exaggerating a bit, but my feeling is that infield utility depth is not going to be an issue for the Dodgers for many years to come. While the farm system may only produce a few impact potential players, with the depth, there are likely to be quite a few players who are valuable off the bench.

#261: I should have been more clear. The projected production from Mueller is less variable than that of Aybar, Perez, and Robles. He has a much larger sample size to base predictions on. Perez on the other hand may have just as good of a chance of OPS'ing .750 again as he does of OPS'ing .650 again. Besides considering average preduction, I believe an important element of team building is managing your "predictive risk" so to speak.

1. Furcal
2. Mueller
3. Drew
4. Kent
5. Garciaparra
6. Choi
7. Cruz
8. Navarro

Assuming no injuries (ha! HA!) that is a pretty mean-looking lineup. I harken back to the days of '03, when our 7-8-9 Murderer's Row of Izturis, Cora, and the pitcher spot were pretty much a guaranteed three blown half-innings per night.

264. D4P

Yeah the plan seems to be, get the position players first then pitching. But, if the budget is spent how will it be done?

264-
That is why I really want to sign Hochevar. I am worried about our pitching in these next few years. Anyone know what pitchers are going to be free agents next year?

How about:

Furcal
Choi
Drew
Kent
Garciaparra
Cruz
Mueller
Navarro

If Choi is going to be given a chance, give him a chance to repeat his production in the #2 spot of last season. Don't bury him at the bottom of the lineup. If Hee can't produce at the top, then get rid of him. His strength is/was supposedly patience, an ability to get on base, and power. Let him do those things at the top (rather than the bottom) of the lineup.

#264: True, but none of the teams in the West have solid rotations from top to bottom. My feeling is we that we take a couple flyers on minor league contracts and perhaps give a shot at the rotation to Kim (maybe even Broxton or Sanchez?). We also have some depth with Orenduff and one of Jackson / Houlton / Billingsley one step from the majors. I'm very interested to see what Billingsley can do, as he is very well liked within both the scouting and statistical communities. It wouldn't surprise me if he outperforms Weaver, for instance.

At some point, I'll re-engage the discussion of moving Eric Gagne into the rotation to get everybody all riled up :).

262 I am not a big Beltre fan and was just using him as an example. However, he is way above average, and according to Vin Scully, among the best defensively at 3B. And offensively, in his worst years, he is average with potential for years where he'd be above average.

I'm not sure but it sounds like your projections for our prospects are extremely high, In reality a lot of top prospects, in fact a majority of them, end up somewhere on the average curve, your Pujols, Cabrera types excluded. And that being said, industry wide consensus wouldn't put the Dodger farm system as having any of the top 3 3B prospects in the majors.

As far as signing a MLer for 5 years being a mistake because in 2-3 years we might have a prospect who will be ML ready... I don't think so. That scenario is a luxury and can always be tended to when it arises.

Anyone know what pitchers are going to be free agents next year?

barry zito
jon garland
mark mulder
jason schmidt
jason marquis
adam eaton
ted lilly
jose conteras

wade miller too, but who knows if hes ever going to be healthy again.

270. D4P

The problem with Choi hitting 2nd is that he'll clog up the base paths. If he plays, bat him 7th. IMHO

And that being said, industry wide consensus wouldn't put the Dodger farm system as having any of the top 3 3B prospects in the majors.

that is false. laroche is a top 3b prospect in the minors. if guzman moves to 3b, hes also a top 3b prospect in the minors.

272- The way your talking about prospects I suppose you think the Deshields trade went over smoothly.

#270: The production from different parts of the lineup for Choi was probably random. On the other hand, I'm not too concerned with where he bats, just that he gets a chance to play. If they put him in the two-hole that's fine with me as well. At this point, he's my favorite Dodger left :). Having Navarro and Choi (re)set the table for the top of the lineup isn't necessarily a bad thing.

270, 275

Lineup Smineup. If Choi is anywhere in the lineup I'll be ecstatic. But my opinion is, Choi has too much power for a #2, given that we only have 3 legitimate power threats (Choi, Drew, Kent). If hitting at the bottom somehow means less "pressure", then let him hit at the bottom.

But I believe that he only hit exceedingly well at #2 because when he started, he hit #2. If he starts, in the long run I doubt it'll matter if he's hitting 2nd, 7th, or 5th or whatever.

I would definitely like to get Barry Zito signed. Mulder's injury problems concern me. Zito has been pretty much healthy his whole career and is a good consistent pitcher. I think he was underappreciated by some this past season.

#272: At the time when Beltre was available for free agency, third base was ranked as the deepest position in the Dodgers organization by Baseball America (IIRC). We had LaRoche, Guzman, and Dewitt who all had legitimate shots at the majors. So, while I agree that not all the Dodgers prospects will make it, signing a longterm deal to block your deepest position is generally a bad idea (see Cabrera, Orlando).

#272: At the time when Beltre was available for free agency, third base was ranked as the deepest position in the Dodgers organization by Baseball America (IIRC). We had LaRoche, Guzman, and Dewitt who all had legitimate shots at the majors. So, while I agree that not all the Dodgers prospects will make it, signing a longterm deal to block your deepest position is generally a bad idea (see Cabrera, Orlando).

277 That is a cheap shot, which is typical when you don't have an argument. I am not saying it's terrible to have prospects and they should always be traded for MLers. I just don't think ALL decisions in the present should be based on us having infield depth in 2007 due to our farm system. But obviously, you feel a cheap shot is a better answer than a constructive argument.

So nice, I posted twice :). Oops.

281 I agree. Again, I was just using Beltre as just an example for the 3yr/39M deal vs 5yr/50-55M deal. I am not saying that we should have signed him and am not even a big Beltre fan.

#273: I hope Ned saves some money for that free agent class.

286
The possible departures of Kent and Drew could help out in that department. Course, then they would need to be replaced...

276 My bad, I did not think LaRoche would be ranked that high, but I probably am wrong. I don't see Guzman as a 3B, sorry. He has OF written all over him.

286-
I think we will have money next year because as more and more players contracts run up, we will be playing more and more cheap rookies.

287 - What kind of year will Drew need to have to make him think he can do better that 3/$33M?

A MVP year, other than that there is no chance in my opinion.

I did not think LaRoche would be ranked that high

why not?

I don't see Guzman as a 3B, sorry. He has OF written all over him.

why? i mean, if it wasnt for laorche, guzman would be our future third basemen.

As much as proponents of BP and some of the posters here liked the LoDuca deal and the traditional media hated it, Plashkee and his friends love getting rid of Milton and the BP/BA folks in their chats today both liked the deal for the A's and Jonah Keri went as far as to say how come Billy Beane did not free Choi for one of their pitching prospects.

290,291
That depends upon how high "money" is on his priority list. I've always thought that he would be uncomfortable with the LA scene, and would prefer to return to the South. He might be willing to settle for less money to play and live in Atlanta or some other southern city.

"Every successful team has true baseball players with the makeup, drive and desire of Bill Mueller" -Colletti

We know JT Snow is a "gamer" and has great makeup.

The Dodgers have made an offer to Nomar. How's his makeup?

I think we can rule out Brett Tomko now, since he has poor makeup.

a boras client settling for less money? lol...

294-
He has Boras as an agent who really does not care for his players well being and only cares for the money. That is my perception, I could be wrong, but I have yet to hear a Boras client pick a place because of reasons other than money.

296
Good point.

293-
Beane has no need for Choi. He has Swisher and Johnson to play 1b, and to get the right handed bat they need they can sign Thomas who will DH.

283- How was 277 a cheap shot? You stated yourself that most prospects dont pan out, the same statement has been made be Lasorda and Claire since the Deshields trade, hence where I supposed you thought it was a good trade.

290. blue22 What kind of year will Drew need to have to make him think he can do better that 3/$33M?"

291. trainwreck A MVP year, other than that there is no chance in my opinion.

No way. Furcal just signed for #13M per. If Drew has a complete season at his normal rates (kinda like his 2004 Braves season), he'll command more than #13M/yr. It might be with teh Dodgers, but I think that if Drew can do his normal .900+ OPS over, say, 145 games, he'll get a raise.

Why shouldn't Guzman be able to hold down 3b? He apparently has the hands and arm to play SS - the only worry there is that his size will limit his range. But 3rd basemen don't need much range, just quickness and size. Lots of big guys have been great defensive 3rd basemen. Schmidt and Rolen pop to mind.

Well, Cuba has been denied from the WBC

But Drew is not exactly the healthiest player around; teams will be worried about giving Drew big money. I think a team like the Red Sox would be his best bet to get more money. Furcal plays the premium position, leadoff hitters value is very high right now, and we just loaded his deal so that we could give him less years.

kenny lofton rumored to be coming to la?
not a full season starter but he was really great for about 400 PA in 110 games for philly last season...

It only takes one outside offer to get a raise. I think that if Drew can play a healthy season next year, someone will be willing to gamble on him. Probably not the Phillies, tho.

Also, anyone know who the other top flight FA outfielders will be in 2007 to compete (or not compete) with a FA Drew?

306-
Well if he recreates his season with the Braves, which is basically what you are saying then that is another MVP type season. He was top 5 in MVP voting that year, so I think we actually agree.

307

Luis Gonzalez (Mutual Option), Ricky Ledee, Barry Bonds, Ryan Klesko (Team Option), Cliff Floyd, Carlos Lee, Raul Ibanez, David Dellucci, Jim Edmonds (Team Option), Mike Cameron (Team Option), Juan Pierre, Gary Matthews Jr., Jay Payton, Randy Winn, Torii Hunter (Team Option), Steve Finley (Team Option), Milton Bradley, Aaron Rowand (Player + Team Options)(arb.), Dave Roberts, Gary Sheffield (Team Option), Shannon Stewart, Jay Gibbons, Matt Stairs, Moises Alou, Jacob Cruz, Jose Cruz Jr. (Team Option), Trot Nixon, Frank Catalanotto, Jermaine Dye (Team Option), J.D. Drew (Player Void Option), and Jose Guillen

Nice group, although a pretty old group.

As for first base, Colletti indicated that a platoon of Hee-Seop Choi and Olmedo Saenz is a tentative plan, because his primary focus now is shoring up the outfield and starting rotation.

I don't recall seeing this mentioned, but the above is from Gurnick's latest.

We're not out of the woods, but it looks like the Snow rumor wasn't as definite as many of us feared. I still remember a lot of us (including me) worried that Colletti's player may sign in 48 hs comment referred to Snow, and then it turns out that it's Mueller instead.

Gurnick also reports that although Nomar's gotten an offer, Colletti has yet to make sure that he's willing to play either 1B or OF.

WWSH

311
Where did you get that info?

Do you have a link?

check out the article on mlb.com

from the AP article of muellers signing:

Meanwhile, Colletti said he'd made an offer to Nomar Garciaparra, another former AL batting champion while playing for the Red Sox.

"I'd like to talk to him before I comment on that," Colletti said when asked about the possibility of Garciaparra playing the outfield. "He has been an infielder most of his career. That doesn't mean he couldn't make the switch to left field."
_____________________________________

wasnt it last week that reports came out that mr ned wouldnt be interested in nomar because he is an injury risk?

well, if we can get nomar, convince him to play left field, i think our lineup is set. Now work on the rotation.

http://tinyurl.com/8dzmg

311 Gurnick also says Colletti confirmed an offer has been made to Nomar, but Colletti wants to talk to Nomar about 1B/LF first. Gurnick also hinted that the rumored offers to Lofton and Sanders are real. But what should I make of this?

"Not every player comes to the big leagues playing the position they played in the Minor Leagues," Colletti said of LaRoche, a high school shortstop who played first base in the Cape Cod League two years ago. "He can do more than play third base. If Billy's productive and LaRoche is ready for the big leagues, we'll find room for him."

Colletti, one day after trading away Milton Bradley, praised Mueller's intangibles.

"His character is as good as it gets," he said. "He's a positive influence on veterans and young players. He has the right approach and the right attitude. There were people in the San Francisco organization who thought he wouldn't play a day in the Major Leagues. His career speaks for itself. He's a character guy, a winner."

Even with NoMar, where do we get the power? I am sorry to say, but Kent needs some protection!

I for one hope we can get both Nomar to play LF and Sanders for RF, with Cruz and Ledee off the bench. I'd rather Werth start the season in AAA to get healthy and rediscover the swing he had success with in 04. We can always call him up if Drew or someone else goes down--it's not like Nomar's been the picture of health lately, after all. I do admit that this is probably wishing for too much, though.

WWSH

if mr. ned signs nomar for left field, keeps choi/saenz platoon, i would be VERY happy.

drew and kent are capable of 30homeruns a year, cruz is good for 20. choi is capable of 20-25, nomar is capable of 20.

i think we have enough power.. especially for a weake NL west.

316- would LaRoche play 2B for a year?

Good news on Choi..hopefully, Snow decides to retire

Re: 318

The 1B platton should also provide some pop, along with Drew (when he's in the lineup). With Nomar, our lineup's actually okay I think.

The rotation is another matter, but in this division, I think we can get by.

Penny will hopefully have his breakout year this year, when he really becomes a true no. 1, and if we get luck with a kid like Billingsley, who knows what will happen?

Hope springs eternal...

WWSH

[319] especially when we need pitching, too.

[320] no sighs of relief from me yet. i'll wait till opening day and choi runs out on the field.

321

Nate, you are dreaming.

There is no way that all those guys are capable of that kind of HR production. I would say perhaps if there were a real masher in the line up somewhere. You remember when Shef was here, Green had his best years. As soon as he was gone (that and some injury that seems to still be lingering), Green became an average player. What I am saying is that you cannot project numbers in a vacuum. I agree with you that some of those numbers are attainable, but only if we have one BIG bat in the lineup.

321-
Those players are capable of those numbers, I just do not plan on it. I think Kent hits less home runs this year, just because he played really well last year so I am going to lower expectations. I do not see Cruz hitting 20, because he will remember who he is and remember he never reaches his potential. Drew I think definitely can, it is just about staying healthy for him. Frankly I have the most confidence in Choi to meet his expecations for home runs.

326 Kent had 29 homers last year. Drew had 15, but only played half the season (scaled to 500 ABs, he'd have 30). Cruz hit 18 in 358 ABs, he could easily get to 20. Choi hit 15 homers in only 320 ABs, he could get to 20-25 with a normal number of ABs. Nomar hit 9 in 230 ABs

Why are nate's numbers so off? Scale all those to 500 ABs, and he's almost perfect. The only thing preventing those numbers are injuries

Re: 324

But is there any pitching that's worth getting via free agency this year?

It may be better to spend all our money on another OF and hope for the best with regards to a kid or a NRI for the rotation.

Cruz's career OPS+ is 104. Obviously pedestrian by definition, and subpar for a corner OF. But I think Nomar would hit his weight (if healthy) even as a corner OF, and Drew (if healthy) is an absolute stud as a CF. Kent is obviously a big plus at 2B, and Choi/Saenz would be average 1B production, with the potential for more I think. Furcal's plus production for a SS would make up for the slight power dropoff at 3B, athough that doesn't seem to be as much of a major power position as it once was. Plus potentially above average production from Navarro, and I think we could actually have a decent offensive unit.

Too much depends on health, obviously, and our pitching, but Ned hasn't sacrificed our future, and we even got a good OF prospect from Oakland this off-season, for the one part of the farm that's thin.

So far, so good.

Please, please, Ned, just don't get any ideas about "upgrading" at 1B.

WWSH

Re: [328}

Kent is due for a drop-off though, and the health specter is a real concern. Now if we could also get Sanders for the OF, I'd feel much better.

WWSH

health is a big factor. but one huge factor that plays in our favor next year is that if we do get hit with the injury bug again next year, we will have reinforcements ready in AAA.

that was the bad thing about last year, our prospects were too far away for them to help us.

next year, we are going into the season with a lot of depth, and the 2005 minor league team of the year PLUS the texas league player of the year, only one level and one 45min flight from vegas away.

327 Cruz can hit 20 homers. Over the last years, he's hit 31, 34, 18, 20, 21, and 18. Both times that he was under 20 he didn't get as many ABs. Why couldn't he get 20? Throughout his major league career, Cruz has averaged 23 homers per season

Hope does spring eternal. That's all good news to me.

Didn't Bill James show that lineup protection is yet another myth? It wouldn't take much to show it besides a lot of data - just show that individual players' stats do not depend on the quality of the hitter (or two) behind him. Sure, if you only have one guy who can hit at all (Bonds some of the time, Vladdy at the end of last season) then they can be pitched around. But you don't need to have a HR hitter to protect a HR hitter. Just a decent hitter.

319 Does Werth still have options? Can he go back to AAA without clearing waivers? Or do you just mean on a rehab assignment?

I've never been a Reggie Sanders fan. I wouldn't mind him in a backup role, but I'd start Cruz until he gets hurt (and he's a good switch-hitter, so no platoon considerations there. Maybe platoon Sanders/Ledee or Werth/Ledee.

332 For the last sentence, season = 500 ABs

Werth is out of options. He'd have to go through waivers to be sent down to the minors (unless he was on a rehab assignment with an injury). What good center fielders are on the block?
Jeremy Reed- has been a semi bust, is still young, not a great defender though
Vernon Wells- would probably cost a ton in prospects though
Gary Matthews Jr- he's ok

Maybe there really isn't anything very good out there.

Before anyone mentions him, I don't want to see Brady Clark ever put on a Dodgers uniform.

I actually think that a Choi who's comfortable and getting consistent playing time could potentially hit 30-35 HR.

Saenz is also getting creaky, and I wonder if he'll really break down this year, which might lead Little to bat Choi against lefties, if Saenz doesn't produce and Choi hits well from the get-go.

I know Choi isn't as young as he once was, but I think his projections are really skewed by both his freak injury in Chicago and horrid misuse last season. I'm really quite optimistic about what Choi can do with a new manager in charge.

WWSH

335
Before anyone mentions him, I don't want to see Brady Clark ever put on a Dodgers uniform.

Or take it off.

So on another front, do people want Johnny Damon, or feh? Assume a 5 year deal.

Also, on Drew, he's got the injury tag, so it's a stretch, but he could opt out not to up his yearly dollars but to get a longer deal. So, if he opted out of 3/33 to get 5/47 or something, he is dropping the yearly number but adding some long term value/security. Again, the injury hex makes this less likely.

When ned says that if laroche is ready this season and mueller is producing we will find a place for laroche.

Could it be choi's platoon partner at 1b, letting seanz just be a pinch hitter?

did gurnicks article imply that we would be getting both lofton AND sanders?

One scenario the Dodgers have considered would involve free agent outfielders Kenny Lofton and Reggie Sanders

Re: 333

Sanders' career OPS+ is 117, but my real concern is with building OF depth. Didn't Cruz have back problems last season?

Re: 335

I forgot about the waivers issue. Maybe a rehab assignment would be in order then--didn't we do that with Grabowski?

WWSH

Could it be choi's platoon partner at 1b, letting seanz just be a pinch hitter?

thats a pretty good idea. it could be. gives loney more time in AAA to develop power.

332-
Three of those seasons were in SkyDome so that helps him out, Pac Bell was impressive to hit 20 jacks there, I have no idea how Tampa Bay's stadium plays, Arizona well we know that helps, and he was good with the Dodgers. Not saying he can't I just do not view it as a sure thing or anything.

Re: 340

I think that's just sloppy wording on Gurnick's part. I doubt we have the budget for both, plus Nomar, who we've supposedly made an offer to already.

Unless Ned's planning to trade Cruz away.

WWSH

http://tinyurl.com/73kfx

matt leinart, the next kyle orton. lol.

Re: 342

It'd also be a nice way to get LaRoche used to MLB pitching without being a regular.

WWSH

If ned holds onto choi and signs nomar and lofton to 1 year deals we would have so many options, and our bench will be solid, and if laroche and guzman are ready during this season our options and bench becomes even more solid.

Just do it ned, keep choi, sign nomar and lofton and get 1 top free agent pitcher (millwood washburn weaver) and hopefully billingsley wins the #5 spot.

No: 33

No! to Johnny Damon. The Drew deal was irritating, but at least it's an understandable decision on DePo's part--5 years to Damon and his career OPS+ of 102 is something I definitely don't want. And it doesn't sound like Ned's all that interested either.

WWSH

I'd like to see Brady Clark and Oscar Robles try a double steal. Combined they stole 10 bases and were thrown out 21 times.

Re: 347

I doubt the payroll could handle that much activity, though, especially with the pitching as expensive as it is. And I say this as someone pleasantly surprised by how much McCourt is willing to spend this offseason.

I guess I'm just resigned to a rotation of Penny/Lowe/Perez/and hope for the best out of Billingsley/Jackson/Houlton

WWSH

345-
Does Orton get a lot of girls or something?

Frankly I thought Leinart could have gotten better women hahaha.

IMHO - acquiring depth for the OF is our highest priority at the moment. We can do some low-risk, high-reward FA or trades for starters, but I'd like to see some of the kids get a shot this year. And, there are usually opportunities in-season to add a player depending on the standings and which way the pennant winds are blowing.

BTW - Hoping for an Adam Dunn trade is probably unrealistic after Sean Casey got shipped off to Pittsburg. Baseball Prospectus speculates the Reds will move Dunn to 1B and the OF will Griffey, Pena, and Kearns.

Where else can we snag a half-way decent OF on the cheap? Jeremy Reed (Seattle)?

351-
no, but there was a photo of him all super drunk at some chicago bar. let me find it, it was really funny.

350
Just bite the bullet with an extra 10 million this season, then next season some rookies come in and kent's contract along with nomar's and lofton's come off the books.

heres some funny orton photos
http://tinyurl.com/c8xpw

I remember seeing pictures of Eli all drunk last year, of course he looked no different from his normal self.

yea, i saw some drunk eli photos last yr on college humor.

Kyle Orton, what a classy guy.

341 You're right that Sanders has been, on average a good hitter. But I've never seen anyone more inconsistent, on a season-by-season basis. Look at the pattern:

Year OPS Chng Team
1992 .818 none Cin
1993 .787 -.031 Cin
1994 .812 +.025 Cin
1995 .976 +.164 Cin
1996 .816 -.160 Cin
1997 .857 +.041 Cin
1998 .764 -.093 Cin
1999 .903 +.139 SD
2000 .705 -.198 Atl
2001 .886 +.181 Ari
2002 .779 -.107 SF
2003 .912 +.133 Pit
2004 .797 -.115 StL
2005 .886 +.089 StL

The guy is like a pendulum. Or a bouncing ball, if you prefer, except that the swings are bigger in the last half of his career than in the first half. He's consistent in his inconsistency. And yesterday was an up year, so with this guy, what went up....
total .835

Drinking Jack Daniels at a bar, 22 years of age, with money in the bank, and a pretty blonde at your elbow. Ah, the good old days. Have fun while you can, Kyle. Too soon you'll be a depressed, blog-addicted old fuddy duddy like us.

At least his home run production has been consistenly solid last few years.

360-
What if you're not old? That can not be a good sign.

So why the fixation on Nomar as a stopgap LF just because he has some power?

If defense is truly that little of a concery, why not just do the same with Frank Thomas instead?

Re: 361

And in DS, where HRs are neutral, that may help keep Sanders' production more in line with last year.

All that being said, I'm not saying the guy's the answer--I just would prefer him to Lofton, and with Drew so fragile, I think we need the depth. If we can get him for a short-term contract, why not?

WWSH

RE: 363

Nomar is a natural SS--he may have lost a step, but it's not implausible he can play the easiest corner OF with at least average competence. The same can not be said of Frank Thomas.

WWSH

363-
Atleast Nomar can run, I am not sure Frank can do that with his bad foot. Of course he won't need to when he is hitting bombs at the Net.

Lousy columns looked OK when I typed it. Rats.

354 Nice to see that mb31 still wants to spend more of McCourt's money. Money that might not even exist.

Nomar and a pitcher. That's all we need, Mr. Colletti. Just make others overpay for the remaining dreck out there, especially JT Snow. And stay away from Damon.

As is likely obvious, I'm a big Choi fan, and want to see him start 100 games this season, but I will point out one thing: he'd be the only position player on the roster other than Alomar Jr. who is limited to one position. I don't think that's a problem at all, but I think some of Colletti's emphasis on athleticism might be a preference for versatile players, a la the 2000 Angels (lots guys who could play multiple positions credibly and who could hit .300), or 2004 Dodgers (lots guys who could play multiple positions credibly and who could suck offensively no matter where they hit).

Actually, tho, Choi isn't slow. I bet he could hold down LF for a few games if he had to.

Re: 367

I think we'd agree on this, if it's Nomar and a Washburn/Millwood vs. Nomar and Sanders, I'd definitely take the former. I'm just pessimistic about whether or not even the latter will come under budget. And I'm leery of the long-term contract we might need to do to get a worthwile starter.

WWSH

360 I prefer "curmudgeon" to fuddy duddy, thank you very much.

361 So what? OPS is OPS. And if his HRs are steady (um, they're not, actually: 12/20/17/28/14/19/14/26/11/33/23/31/22/21) that would mean that a bouncing OPS is indicative of an even more variable OBP. And OBP is more important. Actually, his high for walks is 69, so it's mostly his batting average that bounces around.

I'm really not enthused at all, except as an alternative to Edwards/Repko on the bench.

369-
Kind of being sarcastic because of what I was saying about Jose Cruz Jr.

365 , 366 - But is the extra production you think Nomar would produce, while coming off of a pretty gross injury and moving from extreme hitters' parks to DS, enough to make up for the defense you would gain from an actual LF like Jones or Sanders?

Other names still out there according to MLB.com's free agent tracker include Burnitz, Conine, and old friend Brian Jordan.

...er, maybe Nomar IS better than any of them. I get it now.

359 - There is some variance to his annual OPS totals, but in absence of a comparison to similar outfielders I don't think we can draw any meaningful conclusions from them.

They may vary somewhat, but the baseline seems to be in the high 700s or low 800s. I'll take that as a baseline from an outfielder who will likely make less than $5M next year, especially given our uncertainty at the position as it stands today.

Generally, and in response to any talk of Nomar in LF, I suspect that signing infielders to convert to play OF, for more money (I assume) than Sanders would command is not a good plan.

371 While I'm sure if it matters, Nomar hit .318/.347/.531 in 179 ABs after he came back from his injury

out of all the potential OF free agents left, nomar has the best possibility of being very good offensively next year.

for one yr at 6-8 mil or so, id probably take that bet.

I watched nomah in his prime with sox when i was in college back east and the one thing about his defense i remember was his cannon of an arm (for a SS at least).

he wasn't the most accurate of a tosser but he got the ball over to brian daubach in quite a hurry. I don't know how his range will translate in the outfield but hopefully that arm strentgh would be a bonus there...

Regarding Antonio Perez:

Perez, 25, also flashed potential but his attitude was consistently in question. He was less than popular in the clubhouse and it hardly appears coincidental he already has been traded four times in his young career.

http://www.dailynews.com/dodgers/ci_3306576

In what appeared to be a bold statement by new Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti of what kind of image the organization will have under his regime, the club traded controversial outfielder Milton Bradley and defensively challenged utilityman Antonio Perez to Oakland on Tuesday for top outfield prospect Andre Ethier. In doing so, Colletti rid the Dodgers clubhouse of not one, but two reputed bad eggs.

http://www.dailynews.com/dodgers/ci_3306337

374 , 375 - I'm sorry guys, but still the first thing I think of when anybody mentions Nomar is this:

http://tinyurl.com/a7zwa

372 They may vary somewhat

Are you kidding? I bet no player with 10yrs of service in all of baseball has had greater year to year variance in his production. Up and down. It's stunning is what it is.

What it means is that for Sanders, more than for (I believe) any other veteran hitter (i.e., large sample size) in baseball, his average numbers are a rotten predictor of next year's productivity.

And high .700 OPS, especially when it's most SLG than OBP is not what I'd call a good corner OFer. Like I said, he'd be fine as a 4th/5th OFer. But not as a starter.

Like my disagreement with trainwreck over what it would take for Drew to get a raise, this is a small disagreement. I'd root for RS if he were to come here. But he wouldn't be my first choice.

if anyone watches niptuck, the carvere has hiw own myspace.

www.myspace.com/thecarver

who is the carver!?!?

376-
It is getting hard for me to believe that everyone aside from Choi and Valentin was a jerk on this team. I think the losing just affected these players and maybe we have some real jerks on this team like ODP and Kent who like to control everything and talk bad about other players.

377

First thing that I think of when I see Nomar is, how did all that ugliness get with Mia Hamm?

Hi guys

380
There does seem to be a double standard regarding Kent and character issues.

379-
I spent all of last night at that site. If you listen to the audio it is clearly Quinton's voice. Maybe they are trying to trick us by using Quinton's voice.

I think it was very foolish of the dodger to spent $13 mil a year on an slightly above avg. shortstop. We should have increased the bid on a good/great player like Giles.

385. Furcal has been the best shortstop in the NL over the past 3 years, not exaclty "slightly above avg. shortstop" And Giles wanted to play in San Diego, and it wouldve taken much more to get him once SD offered him the deal he wanted.

I would have taken nomar 4 years ago when he was still on the vitamin S.

My theories...
Quinton because that is his voice on the website, so if they want to be accurate wit that it is him. Also in the preview for next weeks episode the carver asks Sean and Christian, what don't you like about yourself? So that means it has to be someone who knows how they work. So I think there is an accomplice, maybe Liz or Kimber or Gina or even Kit because they all have access to Christian's sperm (remember the condom planted when they thought Christian was the carver). Of course that could mean Christian is the carver and he has an accomplice hmmmm... anyways the creator said it is a regular on the show so takes away Eva the transexual. My other guess could be Bobbilit, because he was a surgeon and he always had a problem with being ugly and he does hate Sean and Christian.
Also the carver did not care about Sean or Christian till Sean started doing the pro-bono work so that leads to Quinton, who did not know them prior to that.

Great 13 mil for a lead off hitter. What a great deal. Lets resign bROWN FOR 2O MIL.

http://thecarver.ytmnd.com/

if you listen that, it sounds a lot like quentin.

i dont think its quetin because quentin is too obvious. its going to be someone no one could think of... probably somoene from the first season..

some people think its the nazi dad. they have good reason for it but i still dont see it.

387. ... or before he broke his wrist, he hasnt been the same hitter since. I dont know why people like making random accusations like this.

also... quentin is bi sexual... christian was raped by the carver... hmmm... it makes sense! drama drama drama.

i am totally hooked on this show.

We have so many holes to fill and unless McCourt robs a bank we can'yt fill them with half decent players. That is why I am mad about spenting 13 mil. on a powerless shortstop.

That is why I am mad about spenting 13 mil. on a powerless shortstop.

that shortstop produced a 8+ warp last season and will 28 to start the 2006 season. i dont see how its such a terrible deal.

I would package Loney and Guzman plus a pitching prospect for a great young outfielder. Dunn anyone? You could put stiffs in the lineup with Dunn and your lineout could still be productive.

394 - Yeah, you could be spending $8mil on a powerless shortstop and calling him your leftfielder!

395. ... do you happen to know oldbear

394- Did you look at his slugging %. It is not that impressive.

397- no.

okay i dont want to talk about furcal anymore.. we;ve been doing that for 2 weeks now. trainwreck, where are you, more niptuck talk!

Creators said it would be a regular on the show so that takes Arian Dad away, plus that guy is a moron and the carver is very philosophical and speaks elegantly.

I believe Guman and Loney are a product of the dodgers hype machine. I would trade them while their value is high.

206:

May of '03, I believe. Close but no cigar...

I wish we would have traded Billy Ashley when his trade value was high.

I just finished re-watching first season and tonight will start on the second. Best drama around (Sopranos is tied).

what do you think about the possibility the carver is matt? Matt is a pretty messed up kid right now. You know... with his first two gfs being a lesbian and a post op transexual and all...

I believe Guman and Loney are a product of the dodgers hype machine. I would trade them while their value is high.

care to explain why?

378
Thanks for the breakdown on the year to year swings of Sanders. I was wondering why you were so down on him.

I'm really hoping we make the deal for Nomar as he is the last legitimate FA who has any real upside. He may not become a GG LF but he should be able to handle the position.

I expect Werth will be sent to AAA on a rehab assignment so we shouldn't have to subject him to waivers.

Kenny Loftons BA last year was driven by a 37% hit rate while for his career it is normally 31% so expect him to drop back to around 270-280.

i wish i can rewatch the first season tonight or this week, but 3 finals in the next two days!

next weeks finale should be awesome. after they reveal the carver... then what? what next!@?!?

Scott Erickson is the Carver.

I alway hear about how our divison is so weak. blah, blah , blah. I want to win a world series. We are the dodgers not the Angels or Brewers. Its sad when dodger fans believe a division title is suffient.

Dodgers Hype Machine. Don't I wish they had one of those

I had finals last week so I am luckily done with that. I do not think Matt is messed up enough to have sex with his dad. As for next season who knows? Probably could be long term ramifications from next weeks episode.

the way erickson carved through opposing teams lineups with his masterful control and merciless sinker... i wouldnt be surprised if he is the carver on niptuck.

Let Guzman, Laroche, Loney tear it up in Vegas for some real hype.

409-
Carver always talks about his ugliness and according to Vin, Erickson is hot stuff.

As for Guzman being Dodger hype machine, I did not even hear about him until BA and places started raving about him. I just remember hearing we have a young shortstop with pop.

the trailers for next week episode make it seem like liz will be questioned. I dont think its her. but she is pretty manly and big for a girl...

Guzman has good power for a shortshop, but we all know he will end up in the outfield or firstbase where he will be just another prospect. He is talented, but I believe he is hyped because of his physical size. Loney lacks power to be a great firstbaseman. When was the last time Loney put up eye popping numbers? NEVER!!!!!! If he can't do it in the minor then he won't do it in the pros.

Plaschke's only mention of the prospects before Colletti took over was to note that most of them would fail. That changed. Who says Plaschke doesn't "change his mind?"

410
When you've only won one playoff game in 17 years the expectations change. The franchise has been pretty pathetic since 1981 other then a fluke 88 WS so Dodger fans don't need to be on a high horse when it comes to other franchises.

Mark my words Loney and Guzman will be busts. La Roach and Martin will be all-stars.

I'll bet molokai is already coming up with a list as long as your arm of people who didn't have power in the minor leagues but developed it in the majors.

guzman out performed laroche in the same league while being a year under.

so why is laroche better than guzman?

416-
From the pictures on the website, Carver clearing has some big arms, but remember Liz could be an accomplice or something. She clearly has hate for society's views on beauty and Christian did give her sperm to use to get pregnant. The bigger surprise might not be who the carver is, but who works with the carver, because someone planted that condom to frame Christian.

Seattle beat us to Carl Everett. At the risk of understatement, it is still not time to get hysterical.

419- We are the dodgers. We draw fans. We are a big market team. Dodger fans have accepted this horrible teams for so long.

I marked them and put them up on my fridge.

what are your reasons for laroche and martin being all stars while guzaman is hyped?

laroche is better because he has more power and a better eye. Plain and Simple. Case CLOSED.

He's watched a lot of baseball.

For people who have no idea what we are talking about... this must sound like the most obscene show on television.

is it for certain that carver has an accomplice? I always thought it was just one person.

i wonder if kimber is dead yet.

this must sound like the most obscene show on television.

Jim Tracy is a guest star?

(429 -- LOL)

laroche is better because he has more power and a better eye. Plain and Simple

laroche 21 yrs old AA: .445 slg
guzman 20 yrs old AA: .475 slg

417
For a guy who didn't even make the BA top 10 I don't see the hype for Loney. Everyone knows he has alot to prove this year. Guzman on the other hand was the best hitting 20 year old NL Prospect in 2004. His followup season was okay, and to say he is just ordinary if he moves from SS just shows your ignorance.

421
That is to funny. I actually started the list using Edmunds and Justice as my top two and then I said he's not worth my time.

nate - don't hurt yourself. You're trying to get blood from a stone. Balco's inauspicious debut reminds me of Preston Wilson's career. Lots of swingin' and missin'. But just wait til he gets a hold of one.

Martin rarely swings at bad pitches and he has great intanibles.

Martin rarely swings at bad pitches and he has great intanibles.

I'm hooked on "Epitafios" an Argentinian miniseries produced by HBO. You can watch all 13 episodes now on HBO on Demand or go one week at a time on HBO Signature.

It's like watching a long vesion of "Se7en" except in Spanish and with a more well fleshed out story.

I'm up to Episode 8 of 13. I'm sure it's going to leave in a "happy" mood when it's over.

GoBear, Read and learn.

431-
I think there could be. Someone planted the condom in Christian's room and it was not the carver. Plus another reason Liz could be on it. Remember the lady who faked her attack, she was not fully sedated during surgery and who is in control of that? Liz!

is this balco guy for real?

We don't close a lot of cases around here - a lot of complex class action litigation that just kind of goes on and on.

438-
I had no idea that show had even started yet.

Also I believe Edwin Jackson will have a breakout year.

YES NATE

that was insane. i thought it was just a dream, but she actually was feeling everything through the surgery. that was terrible.

episode 2 weeks ago. with the plain crash and julias mom. julia killed the burn victim only to find out... it wasnt her mom! that was insane as well.

this whole damn show is insane and i cant believe how much they get away with every week.

Balco - Any updates from the Nerve Center?

We should clone mike edwards 9 times and pay all 9 Edwards 13 mil a year.

425 By the way, Balco, we are not the Dodgers. We're a bunch of fans interested in intelligent conversation about baseball, specifically the Dodgers. "CASE CLOSED" is antithetical to intelligent conversation. We'd love to have you along for the ride, but please try to tone it down and start from a perspective of asking and learning, rather than pronouncing and asserting. Otherwise, Balco will become an unwelcome word around here. Again.

jackson will ahve a breakout yr but guzman and loney are hyped up failures?

you should be more consistent with you analysis.

tell us about your friend orca and your coffee bean picking days while you're at it.

Holy Mother of God! 445 posts for Bill Mueller?

His ears are charred embers by now.

Happiness is...a two year contract with a good hitter who won't cost a lot or block anyone's progress. Thank you Mr. Ned.

hey fearing blue, if you are around, i would love to hear your input/analysis on andre ethier.

Just out of curiousity - does Jon have the power to ban posters from this blog once he has admitted them?

438
The show started last week. It's on HBO on Demand through 12/26. You can spend a wonderful Christmas enjoying a lovely set of gruesome murders in Buenos Aires.

It's actually not graphically violent.

What do you guys think we should do with the outfield?

446-
The plane crash episode was one intense, hardcore hour of television. Aww the beauty of late night, cable television.

I'm holding out hope that Ethier and/or D. Young make this talk about needing another outfielder superfluous.

a lot of the 445 posts about bill mueller is me procrastinating on studying for finals. its okay, dodgers take a back seat to nothing!

How about Matt trying to circumsize himself. Ahhh what are you doing?

Our payroll is at 85 million according to the side of this board if you include meuller.

Add 8 million for mueller and 10 million for millwood or washburn or weaver and you have a total of 103 million.

3 million over the supposive 100 million cap.

DAP, you don't like my insight.

D4P= DAP

oooooppppsssss add 8 million for nomar, not mueller.

462
On the contrary, nothing beats "insight" from the Nerve Center.

I'm starting to feel happy too Ratt. But holding out full emotions until I know who our 1B is.

I'm excited about the on base % of the top of the lineup guys. Going from Izzy and Robles to Furcal and Mueller...

If Kent and Drew stay healthy, there will be plenty o RBI padding opportunities for The Cop and co.

Martin any relation to Chad?

matt is just one messed up person. How can so much happen to a kid that isnt even out of HS yet. wow.

i still cant believe how retarded his current girlfriend is. using skin bleach because you dont think you are white enough because you have 1/16th african american in you? crazy girl.

dont forget a stupid girl as well who didnt buy the waterproof white paint.

To what extent did Mueller get above the market rate for us to get out of the third year, ir any? (In other words, was this a Furcalian deal on a lesser plane?)

464- what does that mean?

452 -- Only a percentage of them are actually about Bill Mueller. Unless he's the Carver.

I also think we should get washburn.

469 Our deal averages $4.75 mil a year. The Pittsburgh deal was $4.5 mil a year. Although I have yet to see the actual terms of Mueller's deal

washburn 4 years/ 44 mil. How does that sound?

well, i heard pirates offer was 3yr 12 mil.

we gave him 2 yrs 9.5 mil. so basically an extra .75 mil a yr to get him here on a shorter contract.

im actually impressed though that mueller picked comfort, location, and the better chance to win over money and more gaurenteed years.

by doing that, as someone pointed out earlier, it saved mr ned from trading sanchez for bell.

RE Sanders and inconsistency:

I was curiuos about how other outfielders have varied OPS-wise, so I picked 10 other "name" veteran outfielders and looked at their OPS from 2000 onward. Sanders is among the more inconsistent, in terms of standard deviation. Here's a snippet of the findings:

Player-Mean OPS-StdDev-Mean/stddev
Sanders 852 80 10.57
Green 874 70 12.49
Giles 954 81 11.7
Cameron 801 21 36.7
Gonzales 927 101 9.16
Burrel 832 72 11.55
A Jones 851 55 15.58

This isn't a great scientific model or anything, but it does show how Reggie stacks up against other outfielders. Most of the players I've compared his to are superior players (by performance, salary, or both), but he stacks up OK for the money.

I also wonder if Reggie's inconsistency is amplified somewhat because his home park factors changed frequently. Im not going to check it, though.

Time to stop procrastinating. Back to studying for Microecon final.

pitt deal was 3/13.5??

if so, then we didnt really overpay at all.

what was muellers WARP last year?

Lowe
Penny
Washburn
ChadBz
Jackson

Trade Od. Perez for something useful.

474 -- Like the Carver came over for dinner.

If we get Sanders then we are just settling. Go after someone great.

having to pay 11 mil a yr for washburn for 4 years is on par with acid burning your face while your toes are being knifed off one by one every 30 mins.

Someone on the myspace site also said the first day the site was created it said female and then the next day they got rid of it. I love how Carver's favorite show is According to Jim. Is there another show on television that gets ripped as hard as that show by other television shows?

washburn is better then LOwe 9mil a year.

Of course that goes for Weaver and Millwood and anyone else you can basically think of too.

mueller
year - warp
2003 - 6.8
2004 - 3.9
2005 - 5.2

Washburn had a low ERA in the American league. It could be even lower in dodger studium with the pitcher hitting 9th.

Nate here is the updated HQ scouting report on Ethier. They moved him to 15th on the Dodgers list.
15. Andre Ethier OF…..L/L…..23…..2003 (2) Arizona State by Oakland
MLE 520 /281 /332 /424

Strengths: Athleticism. BA/contact ability/moderate power. Range. Aggressiveness
Weaknesses: Strike zone judgment. Speed (4.35). Average arm strength
Comments: Aggressive hitter who remained hot all season (leading TL with 104 runs), improving his power output through an off-season strength/conditioning program. Needs to be more selective and isn't going to add much speed and defense to team. Profiles as fourth outfielder, but bat will give him a chance.
MLB Debut: 2007
Potential: Starting corner outfielder

477 I've seen both $13.5 mil and $12 mil, not sure which one is correct. Mueller had a 5.3 WARP last year

483 How?

Are main problem is outfield production. We aren't not to score without an additional power bat in the outfield.

486. and as we know, pitcher's ERA generally stay pretty steady from year to year.

ARE= OUR

490 -- Well, Derek Lowe is a perfect example of that.

Sanchez, I believe Washburn would have an ERA in the 2's if we signed him.

Washburns 2004 season are more indicative of his pitching skills. I'd expect his ERA to jump at least one point next season. Some of that could be mitigated by DS but he's not worth a big contract which is what he's seeking. Hard to be successful as a flyball pitcher with a k/9 rate less then 5, even in DS.

Didn't Lowe's ERA go from 5 something to 3 something over a course of a year and league change.

So I went to some girl who had an incredibly hot picture on her profile and she's a huge Nip/Tuck fan and in TV Guide it says that Vanessa (Matt's Lesbian gf) and Dr. Santiago return for the season finale. Interesting. What if it's Nurse Linda, she is around all the time and no one pays attention to her. She is clearly a regular. Quinton apparently dies in this episode too according to a pic in TV Guide so maybe they are throwing us off, his partner turns on him, or they used his voice just to trick us.

492 Is this based on his 4.64 ERA from 2004? Or his career low strikeout rate last year (a horrendous 4.77 K/9)

nate- my last final is tomorrow...I just can't sit down to study...addicted to Jon's blog

494- Ya but most flyball's don't go out in dodger stadium.

495 It also went from 2 to 5 in 2 years without a league change

499 Dodger Stadium is homer neutral, although Lowe and Weaver would tell you its just as bad as Coors

k rate is not the end all stat.

thanks molokai.

ive heard conflicting reports on his defense. some say he should be decent at the corners.

this is the first ive heard about his strike zone judgement being a weakness. he doesnt really K a lot and averages a good amount of walks. he isnt drew like with the bbs, but he gets it done in that department. It also seems that he refined it even further, leading the AFL in OBP with .495 OBP.

im surprised hes rated so low on the dodgers prospect list. So we get the 2005 texas player of the year into our system and he doesnt even crack the top 12? man, tough on him.

495 Lowe lives off BABIP. In his Cy Young year, it was amazingly low, in 2004, it was amazingly high. This year, it was average. Lowe vastly improved his K/9 and K/BB and his homerun rate got much worse.

500- So we are paying 9 mil to an erratic picther.

505 And you want to pay $11 mil to an erratic pitcher?

Ethier numbers look good. He seems like he has pop and a good eye.

why would matts lesbian girlfriend come back?

who is dr. santiago again? i forgot.

505. i think most pitchers see their era jump around from year to year. other than the santana's and pedro's of the world, its pretty much par for the course.

506- sur why not? Is Brown a FA?

Talking about giving all this money to bad pitchers, whether they be named Lowe, or Weaver, or Washburn, is giving me hives. Fortunately, for probably the first time since Colletti was hired, I don't actually believe that he will do it.

499
That is a fallacy. DS has a 3 year average of 107 for LHB and 106 for RHB while Angel stadium has a 3 year average of LHB/93 & RHB/97 for home runs. Washburn would not be helped by DS but would be helped by the pitcher batting but not enough to warrant his contract.

sur= sure

Let's trade for Pedro. I think we only need to give up a good hitting second base prospect.

This myspace site is brilliant promotion by the Nip/Tuck people. Site has gotten huge traffic since Tuesday and pulls everyone in all kinds of directions on who the carver could be. Best crazy detective work I have read. The carver lists Gone with the Wind as their favorite movie, which stars Scarlett O'Hara, then they list According to Jim as favorite TV show. Jim O'Hara was the name of Meghan O'Hara's ex-husband whom she left and then ended up with Sean.

512- Hey we paid 13 mil for a leadoff hitter. Why not?

Washburn still had a lower ERA then Lowe and he was pitching in the American league.

since murdoch bought myspace sometime in the last year, they can now do stuff like this for their shows.

i agree, its a pretty good idea.

508-
I have no idea wwhy she would come back and Grace Santiago was the psychiatrist that worked them in season 1. BTW I saw another Carver video and it was Matt's voice this time so maybe it's Quentin and Matt as the partners.

rumor trade
mike edwards for dunn. I don't know I think we our giving up too much talent.

*worked with them in season 1

517 Millwood was pitching in the AL, had a lower ERA than Washburn, and is younger (by a few months). But I think you're not realizing the Boras issue. There's a reason why Colletti isn't considering these guys

The Dodger infield is considered one of the best in baseball. Not talking the players but the infield. The park effect for errors in the infield was 87 over a 3 year period. In Boston it was 144, the worse infield in baseball as Renteria can attest to. Petco was a 64 by far the best. Evidently one of the reasons why Depo was building a GB staff and thought that AAGGHH(Erickson) might succeed.

520- Dunn has poor makeup and has never been a winner

Edwards is a grinder. He knows what it takes to win. Games aren't won with home runs and walks. It's all about defense and moving runners over. Dunn probably had the least productive outs of any player in the majors. Edwards is a solid baseball guy.

We have a newbie here, he might not know your tongue was planted in your cheek when you wrote that.
Here is a great quote from the baseball forecaster:
"a backup 3bman and 5th OF with the stats of an end game catcher or 6th OF but with even less skills. Pass"

Boy I missed a lot of posts since my last lo so many hours ago.

I say this as good naturedly as I can - is it just me or should blogs add a breathalyzer test before one can post? ;-)

I still have the same concern about Nomar I had earlier, which is, how would his OF defense be? But I'm sure Mr. Ned has the same concerns and Nomar won't agree if he, too, doubts his abilities there. Sem-sure, anyway.

I don't know if anyone else posted this (I did read through, but 300 comments at a stretch is a hard slog), but on an ESPN trailer during Sportscenter flashed the words "Dodgers tender offers to Kenny Lofton and Reggie Sanders."

So that's some confirmation, assuming ESPN's sources are accurate.

I've figured out who the carver is, it's...
Ray Finkel.

Been lurking, and can only conclude:

Balco=

a) 12-year-old boy
b) Person off their ADD meds
c) Semi-literate who just made their way through "Baseball Stats for Dummies"
d) Actually not a Dodger fan
e) All of the Above

The Fire Night Stalker campaign has hit a snag. The 10 filmed episodes (assuming they continue to stick to the film) have been picked up by the Sci-Fi channel.

Could Kolchak at least have worn a hat? I ask so little.

SI.Com article on Colletti has this line:

"When Colletti was hired, he began his own exhaustive process, interviewing close to 25 candidates."

I never heard it was that many.

http://tinyurl.com/avfnu

Knos I should be sleeping but balco woke me up...

Was meandering through HBT and stumled on the WS machine:
(Dodgers)
http://tinyurl.com/djoky

(3B) both leagues
http://tinyurl.com/apoe4

interesting stuff (I know Jon has posted this stuff here and there, I just wanted to see where Mueller stacked up)

529 - That reminds me a little of a practice conceptual question I saw while reviewing for my Econ test tonight:

"Good X is a normal good. If the price of X drops, what will happen to demand for X?"

a) increase
b) decrease
c) nothing
d) all of the above

:)

Alack! to be able to edit one's posts.

533- micro or macro?

Have read many of the posts and just read the LA Times article. I don't understand the fascination with either Lofton and Sanders, both ball players have had their best days behind them. I think Sanders would be more valuable because of his power. As far as Choi goes it would seem to me that with so little pop available on the market and the possible trade of Odalis Perez, Choi should be kept. Any thoughts on Kevin Mench from Texas

Lofton's line last year:
.335/.387/.420 VORP: 33.0

That's quite a bit better than I expected, actually.

Meanwhile, the possible addition of a first baseman has become a low priority, and it is increasingly likely the club will begin a second consecutive season with light-hitting Hee-Seop Choi manning the position.

Tony Jack(fill in the blank) is at it again.

tony jackson and his crusade against choi is becoming increasingly unbearable.

I'm still hoping we can get one more year of Weaver through arbitration. He's a Boras client, right? If Boras overplays his hand, Weaver might not be in much demand, and a one year Millwood-type deal might look good to him. Certainly polished up Millwood for a long term deal.

So I read every one of these posts. I kind of want to kill myself, but it's pretty late, so maybe I'll just go to bed instead. If Delwyn Young can win the LF spot in ST, he'll be my new favorite player. Does Broxton have no chance of converting back to SP? 'Cuz, that'd be pretty handy, too.

Unrelated: I don't understand the point of having three 24-hour cable news stations (more if you count the loser spin-offs) if none of them will cover a faily important election being carried off, just now. I like Imus as much as the next pretentious half-wit, but, really? Can't even split screen it? Update once in a while?

haha looks like i missed the uh, balco controversy. there generally tends to not be much in the way of protocol on the internet, so i'm surprised we don't see more people who just say whatever comes to mind without even the pretense of trying to justify it. it just speaks to the quality of most posters here that a guy like that would stick out so sorely.

According to several sources, Johnny Damon will visit the Dodgers tomorrow. The buzz is that the Dodgers are willing to go further than the four years the Yankees and Red Sox are comfortable offering the 32-year-old. Unless agent Scott Boras has a mystery team or two involved (always a possibility), the Dodgers likely are the team that has offered Damon five years for $49 million. With former Red Sox manager Grady Little the Dodgers' manager, and ex-Red Sox third baseman Bill Mueller signing yesterday with L.A., Damon may feel more comfortable in Hollywood than in Boston or The Bronx.
http://www.nypost.com/sports/mets/59715.htm

If you've been following Flanders' comments regarding his recent moves, you'll no doubt have noted that he places a great deal of emphasis on character, clubhouse presence, and "makeup" (not the Maybelline kind). If Ned were here right now, I would ask him the following questions:

1. How does Jeff Kent fit into your emphasis on character and maintaining a positive clubhouse atmosphere?

2. In what way does Jeff Kent have a positive "makeup"?

Bill Proxmire has died.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/national/AP-Obit-Proxmire.html

543 I've been saying for a while that Damon may very well get the worst contract of the offseason. It might be hard to pass the Ryan and Burnett deals, but 5+ years of Damon will come close.

546
What, career .784 OPS guys aren't worth $50 million over 5 years?

I'd rather sign one of the guys with the French names.

544 Jeff Kent is a proffessional and a hard worker.

548
Jeff Kent is a liar and a traitor. TAKE HIM AWAY!

544
If you've been following Flanders' comments regarding his recent moves, you'll no doubt have noted that he places a great deal of emphasis on character, clubhouse presence, and "makeup"

Mr. Ned puts a great deal of emphasis on TALKING about makeup, character, clubhouse presence. Whether it really has much to do with his baseball moves is questionable.

549 - Are you saying Kent is part of some sort of Rebel Alliance?

552 - Ned seems pretty media savvy. If you say the right things to this crowd (the LA media) they usually won't actually do things like check to see if you're following through on it, especially if you put up W's.

544 see previous post about WS

549 D4P=The Queen? (what, no "off with his head?! :-) )

Clearly there are conflicting views on Kent, depending on the team mate. With all the talk about possible MVP-er Bradley, what about almost certain HOF-er Kent? Is that worth nothing. I mean, what is it that you don't like about the guy? And if the rest of the team doesn't have a problem, why does it matter to you?

These are all real questions for me. I went back and read about him on the JockBio
(for whatever that's worth): http://tinyurl.com/74w2x

As I posted before, I had forgotten about the motorcycle thing. That's pretty crappy. But other than that, I don't really know of anything that I think would be worth judging him on. Maybe the Bonds incident if you are just convinced that Kent is a racist -- although I am sure I would've tried to strangle Bonds long before that! -- this ain't American History-X. All that being said, I still admire the guy for becoming what he is when I had completely forgotten him from when I almost certainly saw him play lots in Knoxville. That's funny to me.

Would you be interested in what former team-mates have to say about him? Or would that make no difference to you? Once again, that's a real question, I might try and contact one of them... (not that I have any hope of being contacted back)

551
Your feelings serve you well, Blueke...

World-renowned former GM Steve Phillips thinks the Dodgers need a catcher (ESPN insider) and suggests Bengie Molina, for this reason:

"The Dodgers have talked about going with Dioner Navarro and Russ Martin behind the plate. Both players are young and inexperienced, which is a risky proposition for the Dodgers, as they still might be able to compete in baseball's worst division."

He also thinks they need Lofton to play CF because Drew would not be adequate.

555 - Well, according the NY Post, the Dodgers have made 5/$49M offer to Johnny Damon. Yikes.

555
Sandy Alomar Jr. is neither young nor inexperienced.

556 - "according to..."..."have made a..."

556 - Actually that is irresponsible of me. Apparently the NY Post is speculating there is an offer on the table. Damon is supposed to be out west this weekend.

But with offers reportedly out there to Sanders and Lofton, I'm not sure which direction this is all going in.

To be fair, I should note that Phillips suggested Molina might take a one-year deal and try free agency again next year. But that still doesn't make it a good idea.

I'm inclined to give Ned the benefit of the doubt and assume until proven otherwise that he does not intend to sign Damon, assuming that he can sign either Sanders, Lofton, or Nomah.

I have a hard time believing Damon (and Boras) would accept a 5 year, 49 mil deal unless Damon thinks he can do more things outside of baseball in LA, or unless Boston pulls their deal off the table and that's the best he can get.

556 - Yikes? Hey, as long as it aint 5/55.

562

I agree. I feel like this is typical Boras just driving up a client's value based on teams who aren't even really interested, or will end up actually signing them.

561 - It sounds like LA is the wild card in the Damon chase, with the specific job of driving up the price and length for NY and Bos (one of which he'll most likely end up with).

I'm not as thrilled with Nomar as an OF (in fact I was surprised at his rate2 rating of 84 as a 3B last year), nor am I real excited about Reggie Sanders. His on/off career trend is difficult to ignore, and he's coming into an "off" year.

Brad Wilkerson is available from the Rangers. He'd be a nice lefty bat behind Kent, and is a good OF/1B. He'd cost a prospect for sure though.

I think the Dodgers should sign Bengie Molina and keep Jason Phillips around just for comic effect.

Why in the world would Colletti want to waste money on a catcher like Molina when he has one starter already in Navarro, a prospect in Martin, a backup in Alomar, and conceivably even Phillips still around?

The rules state that you can only have one player standing in foul territory so you can only use one catcher at a time.

566 I would pay good money to see McCourt race Molina and Phillips.

566
The rules state that you can only have one player standing in foul territory so you can only use one catcher at a time.

Can the other catcher stand in front of the plate (in fair territory)?

Can the other catcher stand in front of the plate (in fair territory)?

I volunteer Phillips.

569 - Anything to get his bat in the lineup, eh?

New post up top.