Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
The question of why a young catcher must be mentored by a worn-out veteran catcher on the roster instead of a vibrant catching coach off the roster lingers unresolved.
For $650,000, Sandy Alomar, Jr. ...
Alomar hit .273 without a home run in 46 games this year, and he did not throw out any of 17 opposing base stealers.
... is now a Dodger.
No, I get it, he's got worlds of experience. But what else?
This makes Jon's point even stronger. If a guy is in the prime of his career, then it makes sense to pay him to produce and teach. If Alomar can no longer produce, pay him to coach. He's a .310 obp hole in the lineup and a defensive liability.
As for pitch calling, if AJ can lead the White Sox to a top-notch pitching performance after being trashed by the Giants pitchers one year prior, maybe pitch-calling and "game management" is more of a pitcher attribute and not a catcher's.
"The key is to start him on Opening Day and then release him. Two of Alomar's three three-hit games the last two years have come in his season debuts."
Still, coach would've been best.
It's a dumb signing that lacks progressive thinking of any kind. He's no better than the 3rd best catcher in the system, and I'd bet he's not even that good. Seriously, a .630 OPS in TEXAS!! What's that translate to in L.A.?
Maybe Alomar was signed to serve as backup until Martin was known to be ready (April? May? June?), at which point he'd retire and become a catching coach. I don't know, I just sense that this signing was to give us some depth until Martin is ready. Although a non-guarunteed contract to a AAA catcher could have worked, so maybe Colletti sees more to Alomar than we do
But 18 indicates the Dodgers might want to pick up a AAAA catcher in one of these next few deals.
Actually, I can see him not playing a single game this season. Think "spring training injury." He's as good a candidate as any.
Because that's they way they did it in Bull Durham, Jon. Crash Davis. That's how you do it.
Why not just hire his dad as a coach? I'm sure he'd come cheaper than $650,000.
And of course Alomar wasn't going to come here as a coach, he'd get a lot less money.
The sight of him grimacing on the bench after a costly strikeout or mistake is THE defining picture of '05's futility and horror for me.
And it's not about the cost, it's the wasted roster spot.
And if the theory is that Alomar is so bad that he won't play, should there be no concern that Navarro will burn out?
Martin played 129 games last year. Given pinch-hitting and substitutions, if they were both on the Dodgers, Navarro and Martin would each play 100 games this year for the Dodgers, starting 81, give or take. For their first year in the majors, that's a plently full season. Navarro and Martin would get all the work they needed.
I do tend to agree that if Martin proves himself ready in AAA and Alomar proves himself firmly over the hill, Alomar will not be with the team the whole season. And, of course, catchers get hurt.
Alomar is the absolute definition of a chemistry signing that will have the Plaschkers singing Hossana on the highest. Yeah, he had a bad year but he used to be good! He's gotta be better than Bako because Bako's never been good and Alomar used to be really good! And you want to talk chemistry? This guy didn't throw out a runner all year! He'll fit right in! (ba-da-bing!)
But seriously, the signing of Sandy only makes sense if you think he's going to give something to this team that goes beyond the stats. That's thrilling to the Plaschkers (and I'm not lumping you in there, Molo, just making a point) but a little disconcerting for the rest of us.
Now, if Colletti starts signing starters with the same logic that appears to be behind the Alomar signing, I won't be concerned. I'll be downright scared.
And it's dinner. Seriously, it's a good conversation that I plan on attending to after dinner. Because I'm a little more concerned than most with the direction of this team as symbolized by the Alomar signing. Being an English major and all, we're all about symbolism...
"It's a good idea to take three catchers out of camp, skip"
"We're not carrying three catchers, Jake."
Little will have a heart attack, and Alamor will lead us to the World Series.
458 pa vs RHP in 2005: .199/.260/.287
He makes $4,500,000 in 2006. I thought he was the gag-gift attached in any deal for Abreu.
I e-mailed him a few months back. I had heard he had a site and that he occasionally responded. I wrote how when my son grows up I'm going to share with him the extraordinary gift I received everytime I saw Richard Pryor perform--lots of laughter.
The reply I got back: "Beautiful!"
I thought about whether that was him that responded; his daughter helped him with the site. I pictured him either trying to type or struggling to get a word to describe his feelings. I want to believe the word "Beautiful" came out because I want to believe I gave something to the man who gave so much to us.
I cried then. I'm crying now. He suffered. He made huge mistakes. And he was the best comedian this country ever produced.
Why do you assume he's not?
It would make no sense to sign Mueller or anyone else if you knew Bell was coming your way. Maybe Mr. Ned's got an Abreu angle he's still working, and that's why Mueller hasn't been done. (Or Nomar, or Randa).
Let's just take the IPod.
Granted, he can't throw a runner out, probably can't hit very well, and would need Repko to pinch run in the unlikely event that he reaches base, but he has some use. I highly doubt that he takes significant time away from Dioner or Martin.
Or in your analogy... You could have Philip K. Dick read you VALIS, but you can keep interrupting with questions about
The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch.
I will not say that I could never believe this, but I think it is hard to believe. You would, not to put too fine a point on it, be paying Abreu 20 million dollars, wouldn't you? Because everyone agrees (I assume) that David Bell is a sunk cost.
That can't be what Ian Browne of MLB.com meant.
As I said earlier this week, I'm open-minded on the issue of signing a veteran backup backstop, but I've yet to see an argument that explains to me why Navarro can't be tutored by a coach instead of a player.
Six out of every seven games, Alomar won't even play. Is the impact of that seventh game on Navarro worth wasting a roster spot for every game? Especially since the Dodgers might well have a 12-man pitching staff and a five-man bench?
Does having a crappy batter and giving up 3 SBs every game for 22 games in the season do more damage than the possibility of Navarro being a little bit better off in his career does good?
Who knows, but there's no way it's the terrible deal that I feel some are making it out to be. I see Alomar coming in late in games that have already been decided.
I don't foresee a lot of Dodger routs, so that would bode ill.
Anyway, the issue of limiting Navarro's playing time is another argument for using Navarro. Each of them starts 81 games and plays a total of 100, roughly.
Wouldn't we be better off keeping Phillips as a back up? I think he could still be sent down to catch at Vegas, would cost less and hit better than Sandy. All Ned needs to do is tell Grady never to play him at 1B.
Matt Morris has narrowed his search to two teams: the Giants and the Reds. I guess if we're interested in FA pitching, we won't sign Morris
I've thought all along that Morris would go to the Giants. The only way he goes to the Reds is if they offer him $30 million over 3 years or $36 over 4.
NEVER.
From the LA Times:
Jason Phillips, who for the Dodgers last season appeared in 121 games, 93 at catcher, will be traded or non-tendered. Paul Bako was not offered arbitration.
General Manager Ned Colletti met Thursday with Scott Boras, who represents free-agent center fielder Johnny Damon.
The 32-year-old Damon, through Boras, turned down a four-year, $40-million offer from the Boston Red Sox. The New York Yankees also are considered suitors for Damon, who earned $8.3 million last season with the Red Sox."
From the Daily News:
Meanwhile, the Dodgers might be on the verge of dropping out of the hunt for free-agent third baseman Bill Mueller.
There were indications Saturday the Pittsburgh Pirates have increased their offer to the former American League batting champion to three years, which one source familiar with the negotiations said is one year longer than the Dodgers are willing to offer. Dodgers third-base prospect Andy LaRoche is expected to be ready to play every day at the big-league level by 2007 if not sooner.
"Sandy has been a solid catcher in this league for almost two decades, and his accomplishments speak for themselves," Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said in a statement issued by the club.
Fred McGriff, Denny Neagle, Rafael Palmeiro, and Sammy Sosa are still available...
2002
Mauer / 9 - Jackpot
Josh Phelps/36 now a DH in AAA
Jr House / 41
John Buck /43
Jason Werth / 71
Victor Martinez/ 91 - Jackpot
2001
JR House/21
Brandon Inge / 67 now a 3b
Dane Sardina / 71
Joe Lawrence /99
2000 6/6 See any major league catchers in that group.
Eric Munson / 21
Ben Petrick / 34
LeCroy / 44
Werth / 46
Steve Lomansey / 50
Ryan Christianson / 85
Only 2 of 14 catchers who were in the top 100 prospects from 2000-2002 have been able to hold a job in the major leagues as a catcher.
Martin needs at bats. Sure he could be promoted and it might work out but why would you take a chance on scewing up a solid prospect when we don't need to. Solid minor league catchers have a tendency to hit a wall after rapid progress. Until Martin can prove he can break through that wall considering him for a major league job at the start of the season seems foolhardy. Send him to AAA and give him the same at bats that Navarro got. That should be the gameplan. JMO
Smart decision.
What's not answered by this move is: Who? Maybe Mr. Ned thinks he'd be able to trade for a David Ross type, which would allow him to bring Martin into the picture slowly and deliberately.
Molokai's chart makes you appreciate the accomplishment of Dioner Navarro last season, as well as the talent assessment capabilities of DePodesta and White. It also makes you appreciate this rare bit of good luck the Dodgers got in '05 in being able to call up a young, rookie catcher who succeeded right away. We should not take for granted that the Dodgers can get hit by lightening twice in the same spot.
Mock him we must, but Colletti's faith in ancient players has paid off in the past: Grissom, Galaragga, Livan Hernandez, Benito Santiago, Vizquel, Bonds until last season.
Besides, David Wells will probably need someone to pal around with who gets baby-boomer culture.
It seems we are one of the 2 teams still in the hunt (the other being the Giants)
http://tinyurl.com/9ycpu
Philips if he was still around would be rooting for Navarro to have an injury so he can play while Alomar will do what he was signed on to do, mentor the young catcher and teach him everything he has learned. The man was a good catcher in his prime while Philips is not and never will be a good catcher. The little offense that Philips would provide over Alomar one game a week is negligible. You rarely pitch hit back up catchers. Todd Pratt would have been my choice but I think he wanted to play more then once a week. Ned is going to make a lot of choices I expect to disagree with, but a backup catcher named Sandy Alomar is not one of them, nor do I consider him dead weight anymore then Bako was starting 2005.
Alomar's numbers are bad but Bako stinks too--he had a 571 OPS in Chicago in 2004.
Shouldn't we be applauding Ned for giving Dioner the everyday job and bringing in a mentor to help him out?
I'd be upset over Ned if Phillips or some retread was going to be our catcher. Instead he's sending the message to Dioner that the job is his.
People can poo-poo chemistry all they want but it doesn't change the fact that our chemistry was bad last year. Harmless changes--and I would argue that Alomar over Bako is a harmless change--to correct that seem like good moves to me.
Now if Snow is brought in over Choi, that's something with which we ought to take issue.
I don't understand why we're that interested in Morris. He was awful the second half of the season and can't strike anyone out to save himself. His numbers look inferior to those of Weaver.
Other than through trade, I would just sit on what we have, perhaps pick up a 1 or 2 year 4th or 5th starter and concentrate on offense and the young studs that could make an impact.
Because experience/leadership cannot be quantified, old-school types believe it means everything.
Because experience/leadership cannot be quantified, new-school types believe it means nothing.
(A generalization, sure, but one I've found fairly accurate.)
Because we do not suffer from the hubris of claiming to be able to recognize the unrecognizable.
What's the latest on Jackson? Alvarez? (Did he retire?).
He has an awesome beard
I don't understand why we're that interested in Morris.
It's all about the beard...
"Is there a better way to maximize this roster spot? You know how most teams have an "emergency catcher?" (Jayson Werth is the Dodgers'.) Perhaps just skip the second-stringer and when your regular needs a blow, spot the EC against slow teams where he's catching an easy pitcher."
To expand upon the thought, all you need from the EC is the ability to catch one game every week or so. If the roster is composed in a traditional manner, with a Bako or Alomar, does the defense gained in that one game make up for: 1. the backup catcher's lousy bat; 2. the waste of a roster spot the rest of the time? I think not.
And I don't dismiss chemistry altogether, I just don't believe that an over-the-hill backup catcher has the ability to improve the clubhouse atmoshpere enough to justify the roster spot. I'd like to think that playing guys who are, you know, GOOD, would probalby do more for chemistry because of the whole increased number victories thing.
Ask the White Sox if they'd trade their bad-chemistry catcher for a good-chemistry Sandy Alomar.
I should've mentioned this earlier...
If your starting C goes down for any length of time, call up someone from the farm, or make a trade, or in-season FA signing and go with a traditional roster for a while. No need to rely on Werth as a starter - remember, he's the emergency catcher.
Paying an extra 50,000 dollars for a catcher with a noticable skill is a worthwhile investment.
Alomar's OPS the last three seasons: 688, 603, 634. Bako's: 641, 571, 662. Bako would have been just as big a hole as Alomar.
Was Depo roundly criticized for having Bako as the backup catcher by those who now criticize Ned for having Alomar?
I don't think Morris has a prayer of being a top 10 pitcher in the NL. Check out his numbers of late. Plus I don't think Morris can be had for 2 years at 14M. I think he's already been offered 3 yrs/25M--he's just not worth it.
Morris appears better than he is because of his win total, a direct result of Al Reyes/Tavarez in middle relief and an awesome offense.
I believe it is your latter suggestion. I really don't think Ned & Co. are stupid enough to think they can buy "chemistry".
Then again, I could be totally full of it... JMO.
"Only nine more days until the next important date for all you blog-typin', OPS-computin', shrine of Paul DePodesta-worshippin' ball geeks -- the wonderful scrap heap of MLB known as non-tender day"
Again, Bako could at least play defense.
Depo should be commended for picking up Navarro; it was a nice move. He also should be commended for keeping our top prospects. And I don't think Depo should be criticized for making Bako a backup catcher. Nor do I think that Ned should be criticized for making Alomar the backup catcher.
Maybe Bako plays better D than Alomar. But Phillips' D was awful. It seems to me that overall we will got into Opening Day with better D at catcher this year than we had going into last year.
I think that some folks are going out of their way to be critical of Ned without a good reason for doing so.
Second, I don't think we're any worse off for having Alomar over Bako. Navarro's going to play all the time anyway.
This is a leap, isn't it? He got 35 hits in 46 games, including 7 doubles. His slugging has declined, but his BA and OBP for last season was nearly identical to his career average. His OPS last year was higher than Phillips'.
Is the focus on his failure to throw out runners? Fine, that's a concern, as it was with Jason Phillips, who experienced nearly the same level of futility.
But preventing steals is not Alomar's responsibility alone. In those few games he will play, it's up to the pitchers to hold the runners or keep them off base. It's up to Grady Little to avoid using him in situations where a single run will matter, and a basestealer is on base. Maybe Little will not be smart enough to do that--but you can only go so far in idiot-proofing the Dodgers.
This is also a nice vote of confidence for Navarro - and well deserved.
Jon talks about a 50/50 timeshare with Martin; however, easier said then done. Ned isn't filling out the line-up in advance (or at all). One cold streak and Martin could be relegated to the bench or back to AAA. Neither of which would be good for his development.
Depo had perfectly serviceable backup catchers (Rose & Wilson), but he wanted his own mentor-type guy so he got Bako. Now Mr. Ned wants his guy. Good for him. Maybe there were other ways he could have gone with the role -- someone who actually could have pinch hit or played 1B occasionally (a LeCroy-type) or even Werth. But both Depo and Neddy think this mentor backup catcher is a benefit, so at least it shows a commitment to Navarro and Martin.
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/17055.html
http://tinyurl.com/c6hy9
We are almost free of Mr. Morris
And how many pitchers like knowing that both their catchers are rookies? I'm not sure if this means anything ultimately, just putting it out there. I also just realized how poorly written this is, sorry about that...
http://ussmariner.com/?p=3180
on the value of Tejada. Makes me even happier that the Furcal deal was for 3 years.
Alomar's salary vs. the league minimum for an AAAA catcher is irrelevant to me.
Stan from Tacoma
In the future sabre-heaven, I would think there will be a lot more players like Robert Fick: Somewhere in between an "emergency catcher" and a second-string catcher in terms of catching skills, but who are versatile enough to perform other roles acceptably off the bench. A utility player in the non-traditional sense, whose arena is catcher/first base/LF/DH/pinch-hitter.
Werth might want to consider sharpening his catching skills, because he could end up making a living as a Fick-like player. Unless he's too fragile.
If the Dodgers sign Derek Bell, I'm commencing my own Operation Shutdown.
What? It's not Derek, but David?
Ohhhhh.
Never mind!
This is what I was talking about.
But if Loazia is worth 7, is Morris worth 8?
What seems missing from this kind of analysis is this: If player X is making $2 million for creating 50 runs a season, it doesn't follow that player Y should make only $4 million for providing 100 runs a season, and that player Y is grossly overpaid if he makes $12 million. The price comes per increment, per player. Two guys who combine for 100 runs at $4 million are actually less valuable, by far, than one guy who provides 100 runs by himself for $12 million because, obviously, he's not taking up two spots in the batting order/roster. Each increment of production is inevitably going to be far more expensive than the previous one. That's how superstars justify their value. The ideal situation--a lower-price player providing superstar production--frankly is kismet; nice to have, but hard to plan for. To the extent you can control it, you want to avoid the opposite, i.e. Darren Dreifort, and maybe the Mariner writer's point is that the final year or two of Tejada's contract carries that risk. But ferpetesake, Tejada is 28!
, unless you can also show there is some other way to get that final increment of runs. . As you get higher up the curve, the costs get much steeper--understandably.
He's actually 29 going on 30 for this upcoming baseball season.
BD 5/25/76
I have read "Moneyball" but nothing else as far as statistical analysis goes. What are some good books I could/should read about Sabermetrical approaches versus "traditional" approaches? Or maybe a suggestion of a primer for statistical analysis, i.e. what stats to look at, why to look at them, and difference they can make?
Now for a really dumb question: If Billy Beane and Co. used statistical analysis as a means of remaining competitive in a small market, then wouldn't one have to modify the process if it were used by a large market team? Certainly large markets can afford multi-talented players (OBP, fielding, power, etc), wouldn't this necessitate a tweaking of the process a litte? And did Depo tweak the process at all?
As a beginning I'd recommend "The Numbers Game" by Alan Swhwarz which gives a history of baseball statistics and the people behind them.
Dominican Winter League update from HQ
Joel Guzman (SS, LA) - .285 with 5 home runs and a 15bb/27k in 123 AB - still too many ks.
Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA) - .257 with 0 home runs in 113 AB.
Andy Marte (3B, BOS) - .242 with 2 home runs and 16bb/17k in 99 AB.
Curtis Granderson (OF, DET) - .194 with 1 home run in 72 AB.
Willy Aybar (2B, LA) - .143 with 1 home run in 63 AB.
Felix Pie (OF, CHC) - .209 with 1 home runs 4bb/19k in 91 AB - I don't think he's ready yet.
Erick Aybar (SS, ANA) - .296 with 12bb/14k in 135 AB.
I'll share my research in a few minutes. Now, I must fold laundry...
Why do you say that? Prorated to 500 ABs, that's only 106 strikeouts - not at all abnormal. It's also 20 home runs and 61 walks. I can live with that.
That is not my commentary. It is from BaseballHQ.
And there's always the other side of the story:
Brazoban- 1.96 ERA, 18.1 IP, 12 saves, 18 Ks, 6 BBs
Osoria- 2.65 ERA, .205 BAA, 17.0 IP, 18 Ks, 4 Bbs
Duaner is back from his Gagne stint, but so far it's not working out. He allowed 2 runs in an inning on 4 hits
On Tuesday the 15th, Thomas entered the game in the sixth inning of what would be a 9-5 loss at San Diego. It's his debut behind the plate and pitching is the knuckleballer Hough. Not surprisingly, Thomas gives up a passed ball as the Padres score twice in the frame.
On the 16th, Thomas starts as catcher. During an uneventful 10-4 Dodgers win, Thomas records his first career assist by gunning down John D'Acquisto on a fifth-inning sacrifice bunt.
April 17 - Here's where Thomas' catching career takes a weird turn. The Astros steal seven bases in eight tries off Thomas, yet LA still wins, 6-4. Joe Morgan had three thefts, and Cesar Cedeno two. Let the record show Enos Cabell was the first man slain by Thomas' cannon arm.
April 18 - During his final start, Thomas allows passed balls in consecutive innings: Steve Howe in the eighth, and Hough in the ninth. Dodgers lose, 7-4.
April 19 - Thomas takes over at catcher for the Astros' last at-bats in their 2-0 victory. Leading off the inning, Craig Reynolds strikes out but takes first when Thomas can't handle Howe's offering.
Read any and all of the Bill James Abstracts that he wrote from 1977-1988. Actually all the Bill James books for that matter.
I would also suggest some older titles that might be hard to find now -
The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn.
The Diamond Appraised by Craig Wright and Tom House
How about:
"Voodoo Baseball"
or would you believe:
"Trickel Down Baseball Economics"
by John Maynard Keynes
Alomar's wisdom about calling a game against today's major league personnel cannot be matched by a coach/tutor. He's drawing on not only thousands of games caught at the major league level but the fresh knowledge of still being a player. He likely can size up nearly every hitter in the majors and how best to attack him.
Factoring in the cultural mesh as well, Alomar appears an ideal sounding board for Navarro. His bilingual skills seem a fit with the piching staff.
Alomar's hitting and throwing talent, at this stage, gives critics of this move plenty of ammo. Alomar likely will be a liability in both of those areas, no question. Ideally the manager will find a favorable matchup or two, and Alomar will exploit it.
If the LAD don't believe Martin is ready for the majors why would others presume to know better? The LAD have employed Martin since 2002. They should know his flaws. Martin is a converted infielder who has yet to play Triple-A. It seems entirely prudent to give Martin more seasoning.
There was precious little to chose from, of course. I suspect Alomar will seldom be needed before June. Perhaps by then Martin will be ready.
Fergson WAS hurt; he started the April 15 game, then didn't see action for another month.
Scioscia wasn't yet with the club, but he made his MLB debut on April 20.
So, that must be the chain of events: Yeager's a little banged up, so Ferguson starts. Then, Ferguson goes down. But Yeager can't answer the bell, so it's up to the emergency catcher. Finally, it appears it's going to take Yeager a little longer to heal, necessitating the call-up of Scioscia.
Let it Snow? In their search for production at first base, Dodgers officials have turned their attention to free agent J.T. Snow, a Los Angeles-area native who spent the past nine seasons with San Francisco.
Although he will turn 38 in spring training, Snow and his six Gold Gloves still represent a major upgrade both offensively and defensively over Hee-Seop Choi. Snow batted .275 for the Giants last year, with four home runs and 40 RBI, but he also walked 32 times and posted a solid .343 on-base percentage.
Choi's OPS was almost 100 points higher than Snow's. I know consider Tony Jackson to be an idiot.
Major upgrade defensively? I don't think so, but I'm willing to accept we don't know as much as we should about how to measure defense. I'm damn sure Choi is underrated and Snow is WAY overrated.
But a major upgrade offensively? Give me a freakin' break.
snow's career rate2: 100
choi's career rate2: 99
snow's career eqA: .275
choi's career eqA: .275
how is snow really an upgrade anywhere, let alone a "major" upgrade?? plus the fact is that he's 38 and clearly declining, while choi is 26 and we don't have to pay him a new contract. oh, and snow has NO POWER. none. zero. zilch.
In contrast to that, why on earth would we want J.T. Snow??? Snow is to Choi what Alomar is to Navarro? Nope!
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