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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Holiday Open Chat
2005-12-21 10:55
by Jon Weisman

I don't know if you've been sleeping
I don't know if you're awake
I have to take your word for it
So be good for goodness sake

Happy Holidays! I'm devoting the next few days to not being on the computer, so enjoy yourselves in my absence!

Comments (491)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-12-21 11:06:56
1.   sactofan
I think Jon forgot to mention that Best of Dodger Thoughts would make the ideal last minute holiday gift.
2005-12-21 11:20:21
2.   Marty
Before I forget everyone, whatever particular holiday you celebrate, I hope it's a very good one!

And a special Happy Holidays to the ringleader of this amazing circus.

2005-12-21 11:35:18
3.   blue22
Happy Holidays, Jon, to you and your family. Also a Happy Holidays to all the regulars here.

And though it's been said many times, many ways...thanks for providing this great online sanctuary.

2005-12-21 11:55:44
4.   scareduck
Jon may not know these things, but I understand the NSA does. Now 100% warrant-free!
2005-12-21 11:59:57
5.   Slikk
"A few days" of no new subjects? I predict 1000 pages.
2005-12-21 11:59:59
6.   dzzrtRatt
Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, and be careful if you're planning on surfing through the holidays:

Thank you Jon and all the rest of the commenters. This is one of the best communities on the Web by far, and that's because the people are not only smart, they're good-spirited. It's an amazing achievement, to build a club that anyone can join that seems so special. Your next book should be all about how you did that.

2005-12-21 12:01:34
7.   bearlurker
Happy Holidays Jon and everyone. I've become a DT addict in a short time.
2005-12-21 12:06:37
8.   Sam DC
Merry festivus to my online friends. A wonderful 2006 to you all.
2005-12-21 12:09:17
9.   Marty
2005-12-21 12:17:30
10.   Woody
Happy holdidays to all. Jon, thank you for all the work that you invest in this site. You have become something of an internet icon since I first started reading your work in late '03.

My resolution for '06 is to get to LA and see my first game at Dodger Stadium. I've been a Dodger fan since '57, but have never seen them play at home except during spring training at Vero.

2005-12-21 12:19:54
11.   Suffering Bruin
There is only one present I know for sure is under the tree: The Best of Dodger Thoughts.

Of course, I get that every day. I'm a spoiled, spoiled man.

Happy Holidays, Jon. If you feel fortunate to keep this blog, we are doubly fortunate to have you running it.

Happy Holidays to all....

2005-12-21 13:51:20
12.   molokai
Happy Holidays to all. With every position taken care of before the new year I expect the rest of this winter to be quite boring and to take much to long to get to spring. I'd like to thank Ned for the short term contracts and for not signing Snow/Jones/Burnett/Damon and not trading for Soriano/Pierre.
I'm as pleased by what he's not done as to what he has done.
2005-12-21 13:55:57
13.   FirstMohican
Happy Holidays everyone.
2005-12-21 13:56:25
14.   the OZ
Have yourself a scrappy little ballclub
That's the way to play
From now on our batters all will swing away

Here we are as in olden days
With hit and run plays galore
Faithful friends who are dear to us [Mueller, Nomar, Lofton, et al]
Gather near to us once more...

2005-12-21 14:02:17
15.   Linkmeister
Happy Holidays, everybody (take that, O'Reilly!). Mele Kalikimaka and Hauoli Makahiki Hou.

And dzzrtRat, I'll raise your surf report:

2005-12-21 14:13:33
16.   Sam DC
careful rowing too . . .
2005-12-21 14:22:10
17.   Strike4
Jon, one of my 2005 highlights has been the discovery and participation in Dodger Thoughts. Thanks so much for all your TLC. It should be an even more fun place with the obviously better Dodger club in 2006. Now for the tough part, one of my new year resolutions is to get my DT compulsion under control!
2005-12-21 14:49:52
18.   LAT
Happy holidays everyone (yes, even you Frank, Jamie, Plaschke and Simmers)

After a rough season and a rougher off-season, its nice to have hope for the coming season.

Jon, as always, thank you and happy holidays to your family.

2005-12-21 14:56:20
19.   popup
Thank you Jon. Your book arrived on my doorstep today and in print it is as delightful to read as the version that magically appears on my computer screeon on a daily basis. The magic is not really magic I am sure; lots of work and skill go in to what you place on this site day in and day out.

Thanks also to the people who comment here as well. I am amazed at the quality of the comments on this site. This is by far my favorite spot on the internet.

Happy Holidays everyone and I wish a Happy New Year to all.

Stan from Tacoma

2005-12-21 15:06:56
20.   Eric L
Uh oh.. the Red Sox lost their "heart & soul" yesterday (so says Plaschke).

Damon is a fine player, don't get me wrong. Did losing Damon erase all the good things the Red Sox did this offseason?

And Plaschke just talked about OPS on "Around the Horn". Should we prepare for the rapture?

2005-12-21 15:17:41
21.   MikeB
Jon - Happy Holidays and best wishes for a great New Year to you and all the DT gang!

Reading and posting here is almost as much fun as going to a game at Dodger Stadium.

2005-12-21 15:37:37
22.   Michael Green
Happy holidays--yes, indeed, Bill O'Reilly--to everyone. May Jon enjoy a break from his computer and calculator, and I will stay away from my abacus.
2005-12-21 15:40:12
23.   Vishal
i'll take my turn at the podium as well. season's greetings to everyone, and thanks to all(and especially jon) for such an enlightening and enjoyable year talking dodgers, baseball, and everything else.
2005-12-21 16:01:10
24.   Jeromy
I sure do love reading Jon's posts and everyone's comments on this site. Have a Safe and Happy Holidays everyone!
2005-12-21 16:06:45
25.   willhite
I'd like to add my holiday greetings to all of you. Can't really say anything that hasn't already been said. My first stop in the morning and my last stop at night is DT (and far too many stops in between). Thanks for everything Jon.

Molokai, you mentioned in #12 above that things would be very boring between now and ST. We still need to find a pitcher or two. Ned may yet give us another gift under the Christmas tree (or Chanukah bush, as the case may be).

2005-12-21 16:42:26
26.   Midwest Blue
A fine year of Dodger Thoughts it has been (even if I only started my tenure back in June).

Jon, it's been a pleasure reading your wonderful prose, Bob Timmerman's pearls of wisdom, and the thoughtful insights of the most knowledgeable baseball fans in the universe.

Dodger Stadium, the edifice, may lie in Chavez Ravine. But the Dodger spirit resides here with us, one and all.

Merry Christmas everyone -- and especially you, little Ned. We have much to celebrate.

2005-12-21 17:03:14
27.   MSarg29
Happy Holidays all. I really enjoy reading everyone's thoughts about the Dodgers, even though I find myself often in the minority on this site.

Also I just read on Espn2 that the Angels traded Steve Finley to the Giants for Edgardo Alfonzo.

2005-12-21 17:29:41
28.   Marty
Finley to SF. Ha ha ha. This must make Rob very happy.
2005-12-21 17:30:11
29.   the OZ
27 -

Here's a quote from the story on the Giant's site:

"Steve Finley is a player that can win games in many ways -- with his bat, his glove and his knowledge," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said in a statement.

Imagine how poorly Finley would have played last season (.222, 12 HRs) if he DIDN'T have such great game-winning knowledge.

2005-12-21 17:36:58
30.   Steve
"I think somebody would be wise to take this beautiful oven mitt."
2005-12-21 17:38:43
31.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 29

Man, I wonder SBC will do to Finley's numbers. And that's a big OF he has to patrol.


2005-12-21 17:40:14
32.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Finley's Rate2 last season was 99. I thought that stats showed him to be a poor fielder? He always looked overrated to me.


2005-12-21 17:46:16
33.   das411
Bonds, Moises, Winn, and Finley.

Sabean is also building an OF full of 100-gamers?

2005-12-21 17:53:48
34.   trainwreck
lol I thought this was all a joke till I actually saw it was real. Why do the Giants need another outfielder? They hated Alfonso that much.
2005-12-21 18:06:10
35.   jtshoe
"with his bat, his glove and his KNOWLEDGE" Maybe the Giants think Finley can replace Colletti.
2005-12-21 18:07:53
36.   trainwreck
His knowledge from last season on how to sit on the bench.
2005-12-21 18:40:22
37.   Fearing Blue
Happy Holidays Jon and thank you for this wonderful baseball site.

For the holidays, I decided to make a contribution to this website and it's nice to see that others are doing the same through purchases of The Best of Dodgers Thoughts. Jon doesn't do much self-promoting, but he definitely deserves more than just our gratitude for all of his high-quality work.

2005-12-21 18:43:42
38.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Does this mean Feliz will be the full-time 3B?


2005-12-21 18:54:00
39.   Steve
Zero Mostel is running the Cubs. Mystery solved.
2005-12-21 19:14:07
40.   MikeB
This might be old news to some - but I enjoyed this WSJ perspective on free agents and hot stove activities.
2005-12-21 19:23:13
41.   tjshere
I'm jetting out of Ontario tomorrow morning for 10 days in frigid New Hampshire so this might be the last time I get to check in here this year. I'd like to wish a safe and joyous holiday season to one and all, and thank Jon as well as each and every one of you commenters for all the terrific reading you've provided me with since spring. In 2006 I will be a fixture here from day one.

Once again, Happy Holidays and Choi to the world.

2005-12-21 19:35:30
42.   Colorado Blue
I just got done driving 15 hours from Denver to near San Antonio with the family for the holidays and my first thought when I got on-line was to check here of course. Anyway, I went 1-for-2: pulled over twice, one ticket. I righteously deserved the ticket on the one I got the ticket for, so all-in-all wasn't too bad...

In the spirit of the season, to all of my fellow D-T'ers have a wonderful holiday and enjoy the time with your family and friends. Jon, thank you for such a great place to hang out.

Merry Christmas!

2005-12-21 20:05:06
43.   Andrew Shimmin
39- That could could cut both ways. I can imagine McCourt singing: If I were a rich man,/Ya ha deedle deedle, bubba bubba deedle deedle dum./All day long I'd biddy biddy bum./If I were a wealthy man.

I'd like to wish every one the happy holiday of their choice (one is enough; don't get greedy). I'd also like to apologize to any Jehovah's Witnesses who were offended by my wishing them a happy holiday at all, which is so obviously insensitive.

2005-12-21 20:06:59
44.   Steve
43 -- It also makes Dusty Baker Mr. Belvedere.
2005-12-21 20:40:45
45.   bill cox
I wish Feliz Navidad y Prospero Ano to one all.Wishing you a white Christmas and a blue 2006 Baseball season with the first championship in 18 years.Thanks ,Jon for this great seat in the bleachers.
2005-12-21 21:04:30
46.   Telemachos
Mary Lou Retton: "And God bless us, everyone."
2005-12-21 21:17:56
47.   capdodger
I add my wishes for Happy Holidays for you all to the wishes of those who have preceeded me.
2005-12-21 21:23:21
48.   dzzrtRatt
That Giant-Angels trade reminds me of two circuses firing clowns out of cannons at each other.

15 Linkmeister, that Hawaiian surf/swell/wind animated graphic made my day! Thank you!

2005-12-21 21:57:09
49.   Linkmeister
48 If it didn't sound too "Wind in the Willows"-ish, I'd say "Ratty, glad you enjoyed it." ;)

This is the time of year when the really big swells start coming in. We've had several weeks of 12-20 foot waves, with multiple contests going on up there at Pipeline/Sunset.

2005-12-21 22:25:12
50.   das411
Happy holidays everyone!!

Found this over on McCovey Chronicles:

"Here's another little thing that doesn't show up in the box score: Every time a Dodger scores a run, an angel has its wings ripped off by a demon, and is forced to tearfully beg the demon to cauterize the wounds. The demon will refuse, and the sobbing angel will lie in a puddle of angel blood and feathers for eternity, wondering why the Dodgers are allowed to score runs. That's not me talking; that's science. I hope Mueller is happy to be a part of that."

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-12-21 22:26:03
51.   natepurcell
apparently, we signed brett tomko.

2 yrs.....$7.7 million with a mutual option for the 3rd year.....$1 million buyout.....Basically, 2 yrs.....$8.7 million.....minus the $20,000 a year he donated to Dodger charities.

and that is from his brother on the espn giant board. they all seem to believe him. no reason why not considering its pretty precise info.

2005-12-21 22:36:06
52.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 51

Well, that doesn't seem like much of a "steal," but at least the years are reasonable. I can live with it.

To compare some numbers:


2004 - 220 IP 103 ERA+
2005 - 224 IP 96 ERA+


2004 - 194 IP 110 ERA+
2005 - 190 IP 92 ERA+

Both pitchers look about the same for me, but Tomko's contract looks to be much less expensive than what Weaver will probably command.


2005-12-21 22:55:49
53.   Uncle Miltie
Decent pickup. Weaver is hardly gives the Dodgers "quality innings" and will likely get a contract for around $9 million a year.
2005-12-21 23:08:22
54.   natepurcell
we must ride the tomko wave to a World series championship. it has been written. tomko will win cy young/mvp/comeback player of the year/WS MVP.
2005-12-21 23:12:54
55.   Vishal
simers says we got tomko too. i'm relatively satisfied with the offseason. could have been worse. a lot worse.
2005-12-21 23:22:35
56.   Steve
Braden Looper - 3 years, $13 million.

Brett Tomko - 2 years, $9ish million.

I can deal.

2005-12-21 23:30:27
57.   Albert in Hong Kong
Free-agent pitcher Brett Tomko has agreed to terms on a two-year, $8.7 million contract that includes a club option for a third year and a $1 million buyout, two sources with knowledge of the negotiations said Wednesday.

Latest Steve Henson article. Coincides quite well with Tomko's brother's report on the ESPN Giant board, I must say.

2005-12-21 23:34:06
58.   Steamer
6. (dzzrtRat) said: "It's an amazing achievement, to build a club that anyone can join that seems so special."

I'm reminded of Groucho Marx's line about not wanting to belong to any club that would have [me] as a member. But a member I am and happily so.

Sorry to see Finley go to the G'ints. Having been at the stadium to see his division clinching grand slam, that will be my lasting memory of him as a Dodger. While he didn't do much for the Angels, at least I could root for him to do well. Not now.

Safe travels and a Merry Christmas to all, and thank you Jon.

2005-12-21 23:54:51
59.   Strike4
Based on the projected opening day lineup, Navarro will be sharing the field with players making an average of 16 times what he's making. If I were in his cleats, I don't know if I'd be intimidated, jealous or looking forward to my own big payday. I'd like to think I'd just be thrilled to be playing major league ball with the Dodgers. Of course, in real life, I'd consider Navarro's $325k a huge payday.
2005-12-21 23:56:19
60.   slackfarmer
I'm not very excited about Tomko. I guess it's a realatively cheap contract though. Too bad it's two years instead of one.
2005-12-22 00:03:54
61.   natepurcell

prior for tejeda!?!? if that goes down, that would be the definition of a blockbuster.

2005-12-22 00:07:57
62.   Uncle Miltie
61- then at the trading deadline...
Izturis, Joel Guzman, Odalis Perez and cash for Prior
2005-12-22 00:12:54
63.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
So, we have the following roster so far:




Gagne - Closer
Sanchez - RHP
Broxton - RHP
Brazoban - RHP
Kuo - LHP
Wunsch - LHP


LF - Cruz
CF - Lofton
RF - Drew
1B - Nomar
2B - Kent
SS - Furcal
3B - Mueller
C - Navarro


Ledee - OF
Werth/Repko/Ethier - OF
Saenz - 1B/3B
Choi - 1B
Aybar/Robles - Utility
Alomar - C


2005-12-22 00:21:20
64.   Louis in SF
Tomko struggled at the end for the Giants last year, so I wonder what Mr. Ned knows that we don't. He and Felipe had problems.

As far as other pitchers go I hope the 5th spot can be left for the youngsters to compete for....I wonder if this season marks the most former Giants playing for their arch rival? I count Kent, Tomko, Lofton, Mueller, Sandy Jr.

2005-12-22 00:21:45
65.   Brendan

I think that roster can get her done in the NL West. Now if the dodgers can get some luck health wise and have a break out from EJack or even Cbilling, it can do some damage.

2005-12-22 00:25:51
66.   natepurcell
tomko had 3.78 era in the second half last yr.
2005-12-22 00:26:12
67.   Robert Daeley
The LA Giant-Red-Sock Dodgers construction proceeds apace. ;)
2005-12-22 00:30:43
68.   regfairfield
The sentence I've come to associate most with Tomko is "all right, we're facing Tomko today, easy win." The man is not a good pitcher. He's had an ERA+ over 100 two years, 1997, and 2004. If it weren't for his breakout 2004, he'd be on a steady downhill slope since he was 24. He doesn't strike anyone out, read about 5 - 5.5 per nine, and doesn't have any great walk or home run rates to make up for it.

Tomko's upside is as a fourth starter. 2004 was an extreme fluke, Tomko is a slightly better than replacement level pitcher, and little more.

2005-12-22 00:39:52
69.   bhsportsguy
As all previous posters have said Happy Holidays to all and heres to a great 2006. Does anyone think that Ned will try to move Odalis if he signs another pitcher?

Brett Tomko as a 3rd/4th guy, not bad considering all the money that is being dealt out there. The Padres after Peavy have Woody Williams, Chan Ho Park and Chris Young. And the Giants have after Schmidt, Cain, Matt Morris, and some other guys.

L.A. Times article states that Ned prefers to have Houlton as the "swing/long man" although he really did not do well in that role last year. But he could never get past 5 and he would always have that one bad inning.

But based on that article, here is my current 25 man roster:

SP Penny
SP Lowe
SP Perez
SP Tomko
SP FA/trade
BP Houlton
BP Sanchez
BP Brazoban
BP Broxton
BP Gagne
BP LH Wunsch?

SS Furcal
CF Lofton
RF Drew
2B Kent
1B Nomar
LF Cruz, Jr.
3B Mueller
C Navarro

C Alomar, Jr.
IF Choi
IF Saenz
IF Robles
OF Ledee
OF Werth

If Werth isn't ready at the end of Spring training, then maybe Repko has a shot. Unless Aybar can play short, I don't see him making the club. I suppose Nomar could play there in an emergency but I think Ned would want to have Robles glove there.

Only 9 players have contracts for 2007 or later and that counts Drew who has a player option at the end of 2006 and Izzy who is not on the active roster but is signed through 2007 too.

2005-12-22 00:41:54
70.   CanuckDodger
68 -- Since Tomko's lifetime ERA at Dodger Stadium is 2.93, if you were counting on an "easy win" every time we faced Tomko, you were no don't constantly disappointed. For the last two years, Tomko has been only marginally worse than Jeff Weaver, and considering the terms of the deal we just made for Tomko, and what some dumb team is going to give Weaver in way of a contract, we have done very well getting Tomko.
2005-12-22 01:00:12
71.   regfairfield
70 Fair enough. The first thing that actually came to my head was "I can't believe we lost to Brett (very bad word) Tomko," but it didn't really help to orchestrate my point. Besides, before we get too excited about these career numbers at Dodger Stadium, let's keep in mind that this is in 86 innings. I doubt Tomko's fly ball tendenices (career 1.08 G/F ratio, .95 last year) will play well here for an extended period of time.

Just because some team is dumb enough to pay Jeff Weaver that amount of money doesn't make this a good deal. Weaver, at least, has shown upside at some point in the last eight years, unlike Tomko.

Be honest, do you really think you'll be happy with Tomko come July? Hey, he's got a 4.5 ERA, that's pretty average. Will there ever be a time when you look forward to seeing Tomko on the mound? I doubt it. We just spent even more money (which is becoming less of an issue thanks to McCourt's bottomless pocketbook) on a pitcher who is mediocre at best. Isn't that what non-roster invities are for?

2005-12-22 01:14:31
72.   overkill94
Well, can't say Tomko would be my first choice, but he's better than nothin' and comes semi-cheap and for a short contract. For the same amount of money I would have rather had Jason Johnson, but oh well.
2005-12-22 01:35:34
73.   trainwreck
Isn't Tomko a stubborn jerk who angers teammates and does not listen to coaching? I am sure him, Kent, and ODP will not have any problems. I do not like Tomko, but at least we are not paying much.
2005-12-22 01:37:36
74.   Joe
Anyone hear the Colletti interview on Tuesday with Gary Miller (and DeMarco Farr)?

They asked him about pitching and he said that he was "in contact with three or four pitchers, some he knew, some he didn't..." When he said that, the first name that popped into my head was Tomko.

Now I'm sorry it did.

2005-12-22 01:41:09
75.   trainwreck
Just read the Henson article...Do not sign Millwood, do not sign anymore pitchers, and pleaaaaaaase do not send Jackson and Billingsley to Vegas. What are these people thinking? I hope this is just wrong information.
2005-12-22 01:42:56
76.   Joe
Look on the bright least you have a replacement for Mrs. Lima.


2005-12-22 01:55:53
77.   coachjpark
Here's my two cents... a lot of repeating of stuff for people on this site, but a little summary for the holidays and a hypothetical roster that I constructed for your DT pleasure.... :)

1) We have a perfectly serviceable platoon duo of Choi/Saenz at first base. Signing Nomar to a deal effectively negates this duo that combined for 30 HR/104 RBIs. I doubt that Nomar will be able to match this production. As a LF, he's a good sign but there is no upgrade at 1B. In fact, I'd even argue that Nomar has less upside than the Hee Seop. Of course, I'm biased, but Hee Seop's a 3rd year big leaguer who's 26 with no injury history whereas Nomar's 32 coming off of 2 injury-plagued seasons and makes Drew look like a healthy player.

2) We replaced Milton Bradley with Kenny Lofton. This is not an upgrade at all. While Lofton won't have the same off-the-field antics, we actually lost talent at the CF spot.

3) We had a perfectly good 3B situation with Willy Aybar and perhaps could have signed Nomar to play there instead. While Mueller isn't a bad choice, there's no reason to have done given him the deal if we're dealing with scarce money.

4) Why sign Furcal for $13 mill a year when you could plug Antonio Perez at SS? Signing Furcal effectively blocks Joel Guzman or forces the Dodgers to start playing him in the OF.
5) Sandy Alomar??? What is he, 49 years old?

Basically, my gripe with all these signings... Alomar, Furcal, Mueller, Lofton, Nomar.... is that these guys are supposedly "proven" commodities. In essence we are paying a big premium for past success. The commonalities in these signings are that they are short-term deals, so we don't lose our current prospects, but the opportunity cost of signing these Type A and B free agents is that we lose future draft picks.

What would GM Park have done? Here's what I'd have done to construct the 2006 Dodger roster...

C - Navarro/Martin platoon - I'd give both youngsters a start at the big league level and see which one, or both excel. Absolutely no need to sign a "veteran" catcher to handle the pitching staff- Cost: (~$750,000)

1B - Choi/Saenz platoon - 30 HR/104 RBI... that's certainly more than adequate. Leave as is - Cost (~$1.725 million)

2B - Jeff Kent - I'd leave him there, but I'd be more than willing to package him in a deal if a front-line starter was involved. (~$9 million)

SS - Rich Aurilia - (~$2.5-3 million) 1 year deal $3 million, or 2 year, $5 million

3B - Nomar Garciaparra - Put Nomar where he is better positioned to help the Dodgers (~$6 million)

RF - JD Drew ($11 million) can't do anything there... if he's healthy, he's the Dodgers best player

CF - Kenny Lofton ($3.85 million) not a bad deal actually.... good filler... I'd have him leadoff over Furcal in the current lineup... higher OBP

LF - Brian Giles -- ($12.5-13.33 million) Coletti reportedly offered Giles a 3 year deal $34.5 million -- especially with the lack of quality OFs on the FA, I would have made a 3 year, $40 or 4 year, $50 million deal... Giles would have been my NUMBER 1 PRIORITY! I think Coletti blew it by not getting Giles... my goal would have been to get the wheels rolling to make a play to get his little bro, Marcus in '07/'08....

1) Brad Penny ($5.5 million)
2) Derek Lowe ($9 million)
3) Kevin Millwood ($11-12 million) -- I'd ink Millwood to a 3 year ($12 mill) or 4 year ($11 mill) contract
4) Odalis Perez ($7.25 million)
5) D.J. Houlton/Chad Billingsley (~$325,000) Give the young Double-AA stud a shot, and if he falters in spring training and Houlton does decently, start Billingsley in AAA and put Houlton in long-relief/spot start role

1) Eric Gagne ($10 mill)
2) Duaner Sanchez ($375,000)
3) Yhency Brazoban ($340,000)
*4) Franquelis Osoria ($325,000)... if Billingsley gets sent to AAA
5) Jonathan Broxton ($320,000)
6) Hong-Chih Kuo ($320,000)

1) Olmedo Saenz -- already factored in as Choi's platoon partner
2) Jose Cruz, 4th OF ($2.9 million)
3) Ricky Ledee, LF PH ($1.5 million)
4) Willy Aybar, SS ($325,000) - split time at SS between him and Perez
5) Martin/Navarro, catching platoon
6) Antonio Perez, IF (~$325,000)

Any comments about this purely hypothetical lineup? What'd my budget come out to compared to Colleti's?

2005-12-22 01:57:20
78.   RMAPasad
This is good news if the intent is to make Tomko a 5th starter, and still pursue a front-liner like Millwood. Maybe even the overpriced Weaver could make sense since the rotation would have 5 experienced, proven starters ranging in ERA from 3.75 - 4.50. Which beats having the 5th SP with a 5.00- 5.50 ERA.
This is bad news if Tomko is being brought in as a 4th starter and the intent is to use Houlton as 5th SP or rush Billingsley or Jackson into that role. Tomko would be a lousy substitute for Jeff Weaver.
Over past 2 yrs. Weaver has pitched 444 innings to Tomko's 384. Even though their ERA's are fairly close (4.10 Weaver, 4.22 Tomko), this is because Weaver was frequently left in too long to absorb runs after
at tail end of strong performances. The peripherals show the quality difference between Weaver and Tomko over past 2yrs to be substantial.
Weaver's WHIP = 1.23 to Tomko's 1.35.
Weaver's K/9 = 6.2 to Tomko's 5.2
Weaver's BB/9 = 2.2 to Tomko's 2.8
Weaver's HR's/9 = 1.1 to Tomko's .9 (but Weaver pitched in a more HR-friendly home park)
If this as good as a starting pitching acquisition gets, then this rotation isn't realistically any better than last yr's mediocre one. Whatever improvements Odalis might make would be cancelled in the downgrade from Weaver to Tomko.
2005-12-22 02:05:38
79.   CanuckDodger
71 -- 86 innings is not that small a sample size. It is also well-known that historically, over decades, some visiting pitchers have really LOVED pitching at Dodger Stadium, because the mound is a little higher than most and is sloped a little differently. If Tomko is one of those guys, great. And I realize that a lot of statheads throw around the term "flyball pitcher" like it is dirty, but Dodger Stadium is not the Ballpark at Arlington or Coors Field. Dodger Stadium is pretty forgiving even for flyball pitchers, especially in night games.

Yes, the market value of Weaver is relevent to the issue of whether we got a good deal for Tomko. Market context is always relevent, because deals are not made in a vacuum. Both Weaver and Tomko are far enough in their careers that it is probably not sensible to be talking about "upside" for either man. They are what they are at this point, and both pitchers are inconsistent, sometimes looking dominant, sometimes looking horrible. That is what you expect from a #4 starter, and that is what we were shopping for. The thing about Weaver is that he is not going to be paid like a mere #4 starter.

Will I be happy with Tomko come July? Was anybody happy with Weaver in July, the last two years? Two years in a row Weaver started the season pitching like garbage and continuing like that for months, only to finish strong. We'll see what the pattern is with Tomko. I think what is important is that at the end of September I expect to be about as happy with Tomko as I have been with Weaver at the end of September the last two years. Colletti's task was to replace Weaver, and he did it with a guy who will make substantially less than Weaver, has few guaranteed years than Weaver was demanding, and we get two premium draft picks by letting Weaver go and replacing him with a reasonable facsimile of him. That's win, win, win, on three counts.

2005-12-22 03:03:34
80.   teeth
This Weaver-Tomko comparison is somewhat bizarre. They've got similar walk rates and are both Fly Ball-ish pitchers. Weaver's 2005 was way, way better, as he took his walk rate down considerably; however, that was masked by a high HR total, which is an aberration (meanwhile, Tomko's benefited from SBC, an extreme anti-HR ballpark). The real difference between these two is that Weaver tosses many more strikeouts.

Weaver's also three years younger with a better injury history, so there's no question that he's the better pitcher. The difference between these two is about .5-.8 runs per 9, with Weaver being on the right side of league average and Tomko on the wrong. So over the course of a season the difference is ~10-18 runs. Going $4.4m on Tomko versus going $8m on Weaver is roughly a tossup. Two Tomkos is better than one Weaver, but one Weaver and one Houlton could be worth it relative to one Tomko and one Houlton, though taking on a four-year contract is certainly risky. The flip side of that, though, is that signing Weaver to a four-year deal can relatively easily be parlayed into a good trade with a little fortuity; he's fairly bound to have an ERA in the low three's early in the contract if he stays at Dodger Stadium. That assumes that Colletti knows how to get good trade value.

Tomko is certainly not "a reasonable facsimile" of Weaver. It is true that getting the Weaver picks would be helpful; then again, don't be too surprised if Colletti signs some arb-offered FA and trades Odalis Perez, just to make your head spin.

Moreover, Tomko at 1 year, $3.5m is about right, and $4.5m is all right given the market. But also shelling out over $4m for the age 34 season of a below-average pitcher is pretty lame with a system as stocked as the Dodgers and with Penny, Perez, and Lowe already under contract with, hopefully, an influx of pitching prospects making their way to the majors. It's not giving $15m to Magglio Ordonez bad, but it's certainly questionable, and you wonder if Colletti will add anyone within five years of their peak age, other than Furcal (and, I suppose, Ethier).

2005-12-22 03:07:01
81.   oldbear
I'd rather give the job to Billz, than spend 4.5 mils on Brett Tomko.

But I cant really fault this deal that much. I'm just wondering if the Dodgers 'need' a Brett Tomko....And if the difference between Tomko and a replacement pitcher (Billz, Houlton, etc), is worth paying 4.5 mils for?

In a market that pays BJ Ryan and Esteban Loaiza what they are getting, I guess this is a good deal.

2005-12-22 03:55:04
82.   oldbear
64. 7 of our 25 our EX- Giants.

There are 7 Ex- Giants on the Dodgers now.
Jose Cruz
Ricky Ledee
Kenny Lofton
Bill Mueller
Jeff Kent
Sandy Alomar
Brett Tomko
2005-12-22 04:44:38
83.   Sam DC
Well, the first tragedy of the holiday season is that Jon has missed this line: "That Giant-Angels trade reminds me of two circuses firing clowns out of cannons at each other." Great stuff Ratt -- you really should keep on with those thoughts about grabbing a corner of the net for yourself in 2006 . . .
2005-12-22 05:19:05
84.   Midwest Blue
I think many here are nibbling at the edges. We have a rotation that is possibly as strong as last year and could be stronger depending on the last piece that Ned adds, and I feel that our offense will be significantly better just because we won't have as many injuries. And we have veteran players and depth to cover their fragile arses. And most importantly, Ned has accomplished this WITHOUT SELLING THE FARM! What's to complain about?

Seriously guys (and gal), let's all take a hyper-critical chill-pill and rejoice that we finally have a GM who is not sitting around wondering what he could do and is actually spending cash fairly wisely to fill holes for the short term.

I think Ned's philosophy will lead to more gradual, more reasonable blending of minor-league talent. 2007 should be a great year (and 2006 is looking really promising)! Let's take more time to wait, watch and enjoy!

2005-12-22 06:16:34
85.   Penarol1916
84. We should be happy that 2006's rotation MIGHT be as strong as 2005's fairly weak rotation?
2005-12-22 06:20:24
86.   dagwich
Jolly Festivus to all. Hope the Santa-equivalent is good to everybody.

My only complaint about Colletti so far is the redundancy between Mueller and Nomar....I wish just one of them would play 3rd and the Choi/Saenz combo at first. But I guess at worst Little will have the luxury of too much overpriced bench strength. That $5-8 million could have been used instead for a more top line pitcher. Perhaps the Nedster has a plan to bundle some of the spare parts for a good pitcher....

Anyway I think some shaking and moving will happen before Spring Training. At least it seems the decisions are being made now by baseball people instead of the McCourts. At least that is reassuring.

I want to hear from Marty what is on his Holiday dinner menu. His dishes always sound so good! I need ideas since we are scheduled for holiday potlucks the next 4 nights.

2005-12-22 07:46:38
87.   regfairfield
With the payroll climbing up as high as it has, another complaint about Ned emerges. If we knew we had 95 million dollars plus to play with, why didn't we make a more serious push to fill some of our actual holes?

Instead of signing Furcal, Lofton, and Mueller we could have taken that money and made a more serious push towards Giles or Matsui. Yes, he took a hometown discount, but if we offered him the massive amount we had avialable (say, 3 years, 45 million) I'm sure he might have considered a two hour commute. The Dodgers didn't have that many holes coming into this season, and Mr. Ned spent a suddenly massive amount of money filling non existant ones.

Of course, he might have actually done this, making this complaint invalid.

2005-12-22 08:05:44
88.   regfairfield is reporting the Tomko signing now. Looks offical.
2005-12-22 08:25:07
89.   Marty
I did my holiday meal for a bunch of friends last Sunday. The menu was:

Hungarian beef/pork stew
scalloped potatos
brussel sprouts (with a ton of garlic on them)
walnut salad
A few bottles of good Cabernet

Old Fashioneds were the cocktail for the night.

Everything came out pretty well. I'll be at relatives for Christmas having Turkey.

2005-12-22 08:29:40
90.   Steve
Impressive victory for UCLA over Wagner last night. Will the other shoe ever drop, or is the rest of the PAC-10 as underwhelming?
2005-12-22 08:38:52
91.   blue22
61 - Probably still a long shot that the deal goes down. Looks like both sides feel the superstar they're giving up is worthy of the other teams superstar plus a top prospect. Cubs want Bedard and Tejada; O's want Prior and Pie.
2005-12-22 08:45:18
92.   Bob Timmermann
The rest of the Pac-10 isn't all that great, Arizona and Stanford are a little down.

There's likely no one dominant team, but such is the nature of college basketball.

2005-12-22 08:50:50
93.   Midwest Blue
87 Reg, you are a knowledgeable guy. But I would have to disagree that we should overpay for Giles just because he was the best FA outfield hitter out there when he's aging and starting the downside of his career. To me, it's not a good use of the team's cash.

I think not having Izzy until mid-year and not knowing if he would be the same is an actual hole that shouldn't have been filled by Robles and/or a AAA kid. I think 3rd base was an actual hole and Mueller was the best guy to fill it at the time. I happen to believe (with all respect to the Choi-lovers here) that there will be more-upside to having Nomar at first than a Choi/Saenz platoon. Nomar could get hurt, but then so could Saenz (he's no spring chicken and we wore him out last year). And if Choi never picks up a rythmn, 1st becomes a huge hole.

Once it was determined that Bradley wouldn't come back, centerfield became a hole. Left field is still a hole, but at least we were able to plug other holes. And SP? If there's anything we can count on in the next few years is grooming some kids to be great pitchers. Why would we want to block them with a lot of long-term contracts for mediocre pitchers? If we get some so-so pitchers, at least it will be for the short term.

That's how I see it anyway, but everybody is free to disagree. But you won't ruin my buzz about the next season, 'cause I'm feeling groovy compared to last year. You guys should lighten up, too. MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

2005-12-22 09:03:33
94.   underdog
Gack. Tomko? Are they kidding? I'm sorry, I guess he really isn't that much worse than Weaver (but is that a reason to feel good avout sonmething?). If you thought Weaver was erratic though, wait'll you see Tomko... I did see Tomko last year living here in SF and he gave up so many home runs it was like batting practice and drove the Giants fans crazy with his occasional slop. I hope he either proves me wrong and pitches well, or pitches so horribly so quickly that they have no choice but to let one of the kids come in and pitch. Sigh...

I guess pickings really were slim for SPs this year.

As for Finley on the Giants, well, he could still have another year left in him, but he it does seem silly for that team to try to protect its brittle OF by bringing another 40 yo player instead of someone younger. But hey, he's the guy that got us into the playoffs two years ago against... the Giants.

What a topsy turvy world. I guess we'll make Juan Marichal our pitching coach now.

Merry Kwanzmasukkah everyone!

2005-12-22 09:05:34
95.   Steve
79 -- ditto ditto ditto ditto.
2005-12-22 09:08:21
96.   blue22
94 - But who else was there? In the FA pool, you could see incremental differences between Tomko and someone like Jason Johnson, but you're really splitting hairs there. Overpaying for someone like Burnett is a mistake LA is just now coming out from under - don't want to do that again.

Of course, you could just go with the 3 guys LA had, and try to fill in with CBill, DJ, and Edwin Jacksonville but that leaves you very exposed if they aren't ready for it.

2005-12-22 09:09:35
97.   Dark Horse
87--Respectfully as well, to say "we didn't have that many holes" seems a bit daft. Other than Drew (if healthy,) Kent and maybe Navarro, the team seemed to me to have little else. I don't think attaining Giles, Matsui or Dunn alone would've done it. I'm not sure this will either, but it seems better balanced.

As for Tomko, I'm not thrilled, but if the plan is to use him as our number five starter, I can certainly live with it. Beats Erickson, Houlton et al.

2005-12-22 09:11:40
98.   underdog
Yes I agree, Burnett would certainly not have been worth the fortune he would have cost. So I suppose this is better. Well, Steve Henson says Tomko is "Durable and consistent" ... so we'll see. I also know he gives up too many runs. I'll be hoping he does fine, but won't be surprise if he's outshined at some point next year by EJax.

Sounds like Colletti may be looking for yet another SP, still. See, maybe we'll get Tomko and Jason Johnson. ;-)

2005-12-22 09:30:36
99.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Here's an analysis done on Millwood by USS Mariner, which I thought was interesting.

I'd actually like to trade OP and see if we can get Millwood, but we'll see what happens.

BY Kim to a short term deal is an intriguing idea.

I personally don't want to count on EJ, Bills, or Houlton to be able to pitching in the rotation at the start of the season. I'd like Bills to get a bit more seasoning first, and the enigma that is Jackson may never be solved. And I don't have a huge amount of confidence in Houlton.

I personally think one can never have too much starting pitching, as long as one's manager is willing to play the best pitchers, no matter what their salary is, or what their "veteran" status might indicate (i.e. no more Scott Ericksons).


2005-12-22 09:32:14
100.   MartinBillingsley31
We have 3 1b's, 2 utility infielders and are going to get another starting pitcher.

So what could we get for jackson, choi, aybar and a middle infield prospect like hu or abreu, maybe even throw in ethier?

Can we get a powerhitting corner outfielder?

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2005-12-22 09:36:07
101.   regfairfield
97 How many holes did you think we had coming into 2005? The only two important players that were coming off the books were Valentin and Weaver. Cruz looked like a decent fill in for Werth, and a free agent signing at third/short with Perez and Aybar taking over the other position until Izturis came back seemed like a decent idea.

My goals for this offseason were pretty minor: short term third base solution, decent starter, fill out the bench a little. The 2005 Dodgers should have been a good team without the injuries, what's wrong with trying again.

2005-12-22 09:39:46
102.   JMK
I'm guessing that Colletti did fine this off-season. But, could we have possibly spent the money more wisely and creatively though? How about a 2 year 28 million dollar offer to Giles? He definitely would have been a big upgrade for us. I know Burnett is a huge risk, but he does have elite stuff. How about offering him a huge incentive laden contract: a base salary of 3 years at 24 million, if he pitches 200 innings in any of those years he gets an additional 5 million. If the Dodgers win the World Series he gets another 5 million. Or something like that. Injuries are often what make contracts terrible. Why aren't there more incentive laden contracts which pay a lot more if you're healthy? And winning (especially in a place like L.A.) produces huge revenue. Why not put incentives based on the team's performance in contracts. With these type of contracts you only end up paying a lot to players if they stay healthy and if they win. I'm sure from the players perspective they want the guarenteed money but I would imagine they could be swayed if you make the incentives big enough. Or would you have to make the incentives so big that they would make the contracts not so cost-effective?
2005-12-22 09:44:15
103.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 100

I'd be open to a trade, but I'm reluctant to give up Ethier, since we're thin on OFs on the farm. I'd rather we try to make a deal for O. Perez and Aybar. Maybe a good OF prospect who can be a better 4OF than Werth/Repko, and who might got lots of playing time considering how old and brittle our OF is. I'd rather leave Ledee on the bench as the primary LH pinch-hitter than as a 4OF.

Am I too down on O. Perez? I wonder if I'm selling him short.

I don't want to trade Choi, because both of our corner IFs are fairly brittle. Mueller also has a significant injury history. If he goes down, I'd like to have the option of playing Nomah at 3B and Choi at 1B. And Choi can give Nomah a backup at 1B. If Nomah is willing to be used as a super-utilityman, which is I think Perry's scenario, Choi could still get a significant amount of playing time, considering how brittle our corner IFs are.


2005-12-22 09:44:39
104.   slackfarmer
77 & 87 Good points. Also keep in mind that the "proven" commodities that Ned has signed did most of their proving in hitter friendly parks. Their production will take a serious beating at Dodger Stadium. My initial reaction to the club Ned assembled is that it is pretty average with the bat, but I'm begining to think it's even worse than that.
2005-12-22 09:47:59
105.   Bob Timmermann

Sandy Alomar has not played for the Giants. So I count just six former Giants on the Dodgers.

2005-12-22 09:49:33
106.   blue22
101 -
short term third base solution - check.

decent starter - (Tomko) debatable, but check.

fill out the bench a little - check. bench looks solid.

Now what else did Ned do above and beyond your wishes?

Upgraded SS by adding Furcal over Izturis/Robles/Perez. Seems ok by me.

Replaced Milton with Lofton. This was a mandate from ownership - what are you going to do? I'm sure this was a contigency on Ned taking the job. I think he did ok getting Ethier, considering the entire league knew Milton was going to get released. And Lofton isn't exactly worthless.

Obviously the most controversial move is Nomar, but I guess we'll just see how that goes. Ned did retain Choi, but that could just be to spin him off to Boston, NYY, or the Giants (they do need a LH 1B).

All in all, I think Ned has done a good job considering the impression was that ownership wanted to go in a completely different direction from last year.

2005-12-22 09:54:32
107.   MartinBillingsley31
I don't know if you saw in today's l.a. times where ned said he wants both jackson and billingsley to start the season in the minors and wants houlton in the pen as a swingman, and said he won't trade billingsley orenduff and tiffany but didn't say he won't trade jackson.
And the deal with odalis perez is if you trade him you need to get 2 starting pitchers because of what ned said above.

I would think guzman and laroche could come up if nomar or mueller get injured, making choi expendable, plus keeping 3 1b's on the roster make the roster thin, and there is no need for 2 utility infielders, and if we get a powerhitting outfielder we have him, drew, guzman for awhile in the future, and i'm talking an abreu type outfielder.

But trading perez just creates another hole.

2005-12-22 09:56:18
108.   Bob Timmermann
The Giants have a LH 1B in Mark Sweeney. Since they got him as a free agent, he has to stick.
2005-12-22 09:57:05
109.   blue22
But trading perez just creates another hole.

Not to mention the cash that would most likely need to go with Odalis. Effectively you add about $5M to the salary of whoever you get to replace him (or take dead-weight back in return). I haven't been a fan of the "Trade OP" strategy.

2005-12-22 09:58:55
110.   blue22
108 - I read when they signed him, that they still wanted a 1B. Optimally, Sweeney would be a LH-bat off the bench, or a fall-back starter.
2005-12-22 10:01:29
111.   regfairfield
106 My problem with Ned is that Ned had 15 million dollars in crappy contracts come off the book, plus a seven million dollar payroll, and this team is, at best, the same as the one we had coming into last year in terms of skill.

As I've said before, the Dodgers traded power for speed, speed from someone who had a career year in a contract year and a 39 year old.

Is Bradley entirely on Colletti's head? We'll never know, but a baseball decision that horrible needs someone to blame.

Calling Tomko decent is certainly stretching that definition. With a likely increase in home run rates coming to Dodger Stadium, along with him getting another year older, he'll be lucky to escape this year with a sub 4.5 ERA. I absolutely hate paying for mediocrity, and that's what Tomko is, there is no upside there.

Colletti deserves some credit for not destroying the team, but given the sudden financial windfall, he certainly didn't do much to improve it.

2005-12-22 10:02:10
112.   Bob Timmermann
It seems to me that having Mark Sweeney and Hee-Seop Choi on the same roster is redundant.
2005-12-22 10:04:09
113.   jasonungar05
Furcal and Odalis for Prior..get it done. LOL; it will never happen of course
2005-12-22 10:09:11
114.   MartinBillingsley31
I hate paying for mediocrity too (tomko), but i also hate not paying for mediocrity (jackson houlton), i would have rather he spent a little more for millwood and weaver.

And i don't see a starting pitching prospect ready till 2008 except billingsley.
Orenduff 2008 the earliest, tiffany 2009 the earliest, miller is injury prone, elbert or whatever his name is won't be around till at least 2008 probably 2009, so i don't get this "you don't want to block the pitching prospects" stuff.
You trade odalis perez at the trade deadline if billingsley dominates the minors the first half of 2006, otherwise you trade odalis perez after 2006 to give billingsley a spot in 2007.

2005-12-22 10:14:53
115.   MartinBillingsley31
More on 114, lowe has pitched in relief in his career so there is another option for 2008 if orenduff is ready.
2005-12-22 10:17:37
116.   KLV
Tomko is perhaps an uninspired choice, but should be fine. One thing people here seem to be discounting is durability - Tomko has started 30+ games each of the last four years and that is worth something. I'd rather we'd have signed him to a 1-year, 5 million deal, but he undoubtedly wanted (and could get elsewhere) 2 years.

One source for optimism, at least in 2005 (warning: may not be representative of anything besides 2005) he was somewhat hurt by his defense, and pitched slightly better than his numbers indicated:

Interestingly, Weaver was somewhat helped by defense in 2005, and pitched slightly worse than his numbers indicated. But I'd agree with previous posters that that was largely the result of a flukish HR spike that is unlikely to repeat itself next year. Still, if Weaver signs a Washburnesque contract (~4 years, 37 million), which seems quite possible given what's left on the market (Weaver= this year's Derek Lowe), I'll be very glad we got Tomko for 2 years 8.7 million.

I'm glad we've added a durable back-of-the-rotation starter because I think we need (at least) 6 potential starters going into 2006. We should not assume that Penny and OP are both healthy for 30 starts; nor should we assume that Houlton/Bills/Jackson can fill 2 of the rotation spots. Tomko gives us more depth, with league-average or slightly below-league average (which is very different that replacement level) starting pitcher talent. If there's one thing I've been particularly impressed with about Colletti, it's been the way he's built up our depth for 2006. After 2005, that's welcome news in my eyes.

2005-12-22 10:20:20
117.   blue22
111 - 15 million dollars in crappy contracts come off the book, plus a seven million dollar payroll

True, but in a real down year for FA's. He missed on Giles. I think he went hard after him, and perhaps Giles didn't give LA a chance to top SD's offer. Since the Pads came back into the bidding so late, it appeared that Giles jumped at the first decent offer from SD. Life moves on.

Having missed out on that, SS seemed an appropriate place to upgrade. Furcal was the best position player on the market, and filled both a positional and lineup need. I know that you preferred Antonio Perez there, but the organization was apparently not pleased with Perez. He would've only been a marginal upgrade over Izturis/Robles offensively (assuming a downturn for Perez - his BABIP was .379) and a downgrade defensively.

112 - Sweeney is a "professional hitter", meaning he's only allowed one at bat per game, typically in the ninth inning. Choi is obviously not this, as his 17 K's in 42 PH AB's last year clearly shows.


2005-12-22 10:22:46
118.   KLV
I think Weaver and, especially, Millwood will got A LOT more than Tomko, but we'll see.

Also, the criticisms re not signing Giles seem unfair. We beat San Diego's offer by $4.5 million, and there was no sign that we had even told Giles' representatives that we had reached our limit. San Diego came back with a 3 year, 30 million offer which Giles immediately snatched up. His agent was pretty obviously not trying to work the market to get the highest bid, he was just working the market to get San Diego to step up to a certain threshhold so Giles could, with dignity, sign where he wanted to play along.

2005-12-22 10:27:36
119.   regfairfield
117 Antonio Perez's BABIP may have been a little high, but his 21.6 line drive percentage would be a direct correlation to that.
2005-12-22 10:29:30
120.   Ben H
Dave Studeman at The Hardball Times has a little snippet on Furcal today:

"I keep reading that the Dodgers overpaid for Rafael Furcal, but I don't get it. The guy was the best shortstop in the National League last year, he's at his peak and he's a reliable projection. Both Shandler and the James Handbook project that he'll hit around .285/.355/.430 and Shandler gives him a Reliability Score of 95 (out of 100). Based on what major league teams paid last year, that makes him worth about $18 million. The Dodgers will pay him the equivalent of $13 million a year for the next three years. To me, this was a fine deal for L.A."

2005-12-22 10:33:52
121.   blue22
119 - His LD% seems very middle of the pack on the Dodgers. Coupled with his high BABIP, that means to me he was getting an inordinate amount of "groundballs with eyes" and "texas-leaguers" dropping in.

Even worse is Aybar, who had a similar BABIP number as Perez, but only a 16% LD%. Doesn't bode well for Mr. Aybar.

2005-12-22 10:37:27
122.   regfairfield
121 The Dodgers had an inordinate amount of line drives last year then, since 21.6% would place him 27th in the NL.
2005-12-22 10:39:31
123.   blue22
BTW, I was reading about the Alfonzo/Finley trade. Was anybody else shocked that Edgardo Alfonzo only just turned 32? That guy must age in dog years.
2005-12-22 10:40:08
124.   regfairfield
Actually, scratch what I just said, I noticed that would be 27 out of 63. You are right on that account. However, Perez went under his power projection, so it's entirely possible he'd improve there.
2005-12-22 10:41:39
125.   blue22
Hmmm...he was 12th on the roster in LD%, ranking behind Choi (25.4%), Ledee, Saenz, Robles, Bradley, Cruz, Edwards, Navarro, and Izturis.

via HTT:

2005-12-22 10:44:48
126.   slackfarmer
111 "Dodgers traded power for speed"

I wondered how much value speed brought to the game in recent years, as well as whether getting on base was really more important than power as some have suggested. So I compared the correlations of various Dodger stats to runs scored. I found that speed and OBP were very important in the 60s and 70s, but in recent years power was much more important. For evaluating Dodgers and potential Dodgers in today's game, OPS is one of the best stats. For more detail see

2005-12-22 10:47:48
127.   Vishal
[[125] oddly enough, jeff kent isn't on the list.
2005-12-22 10:51:54
128.   blue22
127 - In order to see the whole roster, I mistakenly filtered by "non-qualifiers" only.

Amazingly enough, Jeff Kent was the only player on the Dodgers that qualified for the batting title. (based on HTT's qualifications, at least)

2005-12-22 10:55:37
129.   MikeB
Why is the trading of Choi such a clear option? Why not trade Saenz? Olemdo has a lot of media-cred as a "professional" hitter and would be a nice fit for an AL team looking for a part time 1B/3B/DH/PH.
Keep Choi and his prime years in LA. Send Olmedo to the highest bidder for a pitcher or a young OF prospect.
2005-12-22 10:57:20
130.   regfairfield
129 We won't trade Saenz because he's a professional hitter, and Ned's goal seems to be to stamp out any mark DePo left on the tram.
2005-12-22 11:04:20
131.   blue22
Saenz should be the one to go though, I agree. A backup 1B/RH-PH when your 1B starter is RH is a luxury LA probably can't afford, given the tight bench.

Nomar bouncing between 1B and the OF (and even an occasional IF start), with Choi, Lofton, and Cruz rotating based on matchups is the optimal scenario IMO.

2005-12-22 11:07:11
132.   MikeB
130. Sorry, I don't buy the argument that Colletti is getting rid of the Depodesta legacy.
Kent, Drew, Navarro, Cruz, Penny, Lowe, Choi, Saenz - these are all pieces added by Depodesta and they are still Dodgers - barring any unannounced trades.
Colletti seems to have filled in around these players, and added some depth. He hasn't plundered the farm system of top prospects.

Saenz has trade value because of the public perception he is a valuable hitter and versatile - and cheap - at $1 mil a year.
Choi has little value because of the perception he can't hit consistently, or field gracefully, and has no place to play in LA.
Saenz is the chip that Colletti can use to fill another hole.

I think Colletti sees the potential value in Choi, or he would not have negotitated a contract with him - and non-tendered him.

2005-12-22 11:17:12
133.   greenchris
I've been lobbying for the signing of Tomko since Jon posted his "innings eater" blog right before Thanksgiving. I think it's a great choice, but I am not sure about the terms of the agreement. I think Ned might have slightly overpaid for him. I was hearing that he would sign for around $3-3.5 mil per year, I was surprised to see that we paid him around $4 mil per year. Apparently the deal is $3.6 mil, $4.1 mil, and a $1 mil buyout on mutual option of $4.5 mil.

He doesn't have a history of injuries, and his record last year could have easily been above .500. His bullpen blew a lot of leads for him, and he was a victim of poor run support.

I posted this comparison around Thanksgiving, and although the "Tomko at Dodger Stadium" is a small sample size, it offers some history of his performance at Chavez Ravine as well as his performance at his home ball parks. I wouldn't call Busch a pitchers park, so there is some upside to him pitching at Dodger Stadium.


Here's how Weaver & Tomko compare:

2002 10W 10L 204.1IP 126K 4.49ERA
2003 13W 9L 203.2IP 114K 5.29ERA
2004 11W 7L 194IP 108K 4.04ERA
2005 8W 15L 191.2IP 114K 4.48ERA

Weaver W L IP K ERA
2002 11W 11L 200.2IP 132K 3.52ERA
2003 7W 9L 159.1IP 93K 5.99ERA
2004 13W 13L 220IP 153K 4.01ERA
2005 14W 11L 224IP 157K 4.22ERA

Here's Tomko's stats at Dodger Stadium (DS) and his Home Stats from 2002-2005.

05 DS 3GS 0W 1L 8ER 4.08ERA
05 SBC 14GS 6W 5L 3.58ERA
04 DS 3GS 1W 0L 5ER 2.01ERA
04 SBC 13GS 6W 4L 5.31ERA
03 DS 1GS 0W 0L 5ER 8.44ERA
03 Busch15GS 4W 4L 2.88ERA
02 DS 2GS 2W 0L 1ER 0.6ERA
02 QC 18GS 6W 5L 4.13ERA

DS Stats 02to05- 9GS 3W 1L 19ER 2.88ERA
Home Stats 02to05- 60GS 22W 18L 170ER 3.92ERA

Innings eater at around $4mil per year...I'll take him over getting locked into a longer, more expensive agreement with Weaver or Millwood.

2005-12-22 11:17:37
134.   GoBears
Amazingly enough, Jeff Kent was the only player on the Dodgers that qualified for the batting title.

Yeah, there was an article about this over at BP in the last few days. Tied a record to have only 1 such player. Of course, if not for Tracy, Choi would have qualified as well.

I keep reading that Weaver's HR problem was anomalous, and it IS out of line with his career, but if his walks were also way down, maybe there's a reason for all the HRs. He's throwing more strikes, and it's a lot easier to hit strikes. If he used to be effectively wild, now he's more of an ineffective control pitcher. Might want to risk another walk or two if it means grooving fewer pitches.

Anyone have his breakdown by pitch-count? I wonder how many of those HRs were after he should have been pulled - I know a few big ones were, but those might be the exceptions.

2005-12-22 11:20:05
135.   GoBears
Tomko isn't very good. i think league-average innings eater is an apt descriptions. If he's our #4 or #5, that's fine. But we still need a #3. Or, if Penny is a #2 and Lowe a #3, then we need an ace - anyone know which trees those grow on?
2005-12-22 11:21:56
136.   blue22
135 - Declining K-rates aside, Odalis is due for a bounceback year. He should be a suitable #3.
2005-12-22 11:23:58
137.   greenchris
129 & 130 - I am not a Choi fan at all, but if we are going to trade Saenz or Choi I think it makes more sense to trade Saenz and keep Choi. Choi is a lefty, coming off the bench, younger, more agile, and as much as I hate to admit this, he offers more upside than Saenz.

Saenz is effective in a part time role, asking him to play full time is a lot, and given Nomar's injury history I think it serves us better to have someone who can play full time. Look at Saenz's numbers at the end of the 05 season. Choi can play full time if asked to, but the downside to him not playing full time is that (IMO) he looks like he lacks confidence when coming off the bench in a part time/pinch hitting role.

To be quite honest, I really don't understand the signing of Choi when we already signed Saenz. One of them has to go, and I think Saenz to the AL for a Lefty middle reliever makes the most sense.

2005-12-22 11:28:52
138.   dagwich
89 Thanks Marty. Sounds like a great winter meal. A couple times a week I like to create something unusual and good in the wife seems pretty happy about that.
2005-12-22 11:31:12
139.   Fallout
The Henson artcle says that Tomko throws 92-93.
I say he throws that on his worst days.

States that he routinely hit 96 mph.
He blows smoke.

2005-12-22 11:32:02
140.   blue22
137 - Baltimore and Tampa both lack a RH 1B. If KC trades Sweeney, they could be a match. The (gasp!) Angels still need some pop from the right side (methinks Alfonzo isn't the answer).
2005-12-22 11:37:25
141.   Brendan
I think Ned might have slightly overpaid for him

Stuff like this makes me laugh. like Tomko is on some grocery store shelf. Ned should have went to Costco instead. The amount the dodgers paid might have been the amount it took for him to sign with LA and not someone else. Plus Tomko is signed as the #4 starter. Not expecting Prior numbers. he is perfect for the #4 role.

2005-12-22 11:37:54
142.   GoBears
Looks like Reggie Sanders has been exiled - he's apparently signing with KC. I guess he's got a better chance to make the All-Star Game now, what with the "every team gets a rep" rule.

Man, do I hate the ASG...

2005-12-22 11:38:39
143.   Vishal
[139] blows smoke? you're saying the chronicle writer is blowing smoke, and that tomko doesn't throw very hard? or did you mean that tomko DOES throw hard, and that henson is wrong?
2005-12-22 11:41:48
144.   GoBears
Well, I don't believe that Tomko routinely hits 96 - at least he won't on the Dodger Stadium gun. But so what if he does? We're not assessing an unknown prospect here, looking for a clue to performance by examining his tools. We have a long track record. Of mediocrity. Which is find for the bottom of the rotation. Nobody has 5 above-average starters. SF might have 4, however.
2005-12-22 11:48:50
145.   GoBears
er, um, "fine" for the bottom of the rotation.
2005-12-22 11:54:07
146.   Fallout
143. Vishal

Tomko blows smoke. He throws bullets. He throws aspirin tablets. He's a flame thrower.

Henson is wrong. Yeah, I've seen him pitch where he only threw 92-93 but that is unusual. He's mostly 95-96 even 97.

2005-12-22 11:55:25
147.   bhsportsguy
The one directive that Ned appeared to have or he self-imposed was short term (3 year) contracts. Everyone except Nomar got a bump from their 2005 salary. The Dodger contract situation post 2006 is as follows:

Cesar Izturis (4.15M 2007, Team Option for 2008 for 5.85M) or buyout.
Odalis Perez (7.75M 2007, Team Option for 2008 9M) or buyout.
Derek Lowe (9.5M 2007, 10M 2008)
J.D. Drew (11M 2007-2009, if he does not opt out at end of 2006)
Brad Penny (8M 2007, 9.5M 2008 (Salaries include signing bonus to be paid January 2007, 2008) and Team Option for 2009 9.25M) or buyout.
Rafael Furcal (13M 2007, 13M 2008, plus 4M Bonus to be paid before the 2009 season)
Olmedo Saenz (1M 2007)
Bill Mueller (4.5 M 2007 plus 750K Bonus to be paid before 2008 season)
Brett Tomko (4.5M(?) 2007 with team option for 2008)or buyout.

For 2007, 52.4M guaranteed (If Drew does not opt out then it is 63.4M for 9 players)
For 2008, 42.5M guaranteed (Drew still here, 53.5 for 4 players)
For 2009, 11M if Drew is still here.

This not include the buyouts or if the Dodgers decide to exercise any of their team options.

2005-12-22 12:01:39
148.   greenchris
141 - Brendan, Thanks for your analysis...Wow, I feel like the clouds have parted and I can now see the light. Who would have thought that Ned would have to throw Tomko a bone in order to get him to play in this pathetic town, especially when his family resides here. I guess that Tomko guy is a real money hungry, self serving, greedy baseball player, just like the rest of them.

Hey Einstein, I mean Brendan, I'm interested to get your thoughts on the Furcal signing, do you think that's what happened there as well? It's an honor to read your in-depth analysis on this board. You're analytical skills are second to none, and all of my fellow DT readers should consider it an honor to have a genius such as yourself partake in our little forum.

I'm glad I could make you laugh during this special time of year...btw, if you or your family need some cheering up over the holidays, you know where to find me. Happy Holidays!

2005-12-22 12:02:53
149.   teeth
Those calling for Billingsley in the rotation need to cool off. There's no reason to start the arbitration clock early on him in his age 22 season, especially since he hasn't reached AAA yet. If you wait until 2007, then you get ages 23-25 at the league minimum and 26-28 at arb. prices. There is probably much more value in getting that age 28 season than in his age 22 season. The test for promoting a top prospect (i.e., one whose future is of much import) is whether you're fairly certain that they're above average in the majors already; Billingsley is not.
2005-12-22 12:06:01
150.   regfairfield
146 And that smoke a translated into a K rate that has steadily declined into the 5 - 5.5 range.

If you throw hard, but don't translate it into strikeouts, who really cares?

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2005-12-22 12:10:31
151.   Fallout
150. regfairfield

It's a shame to be able to throw that hard and not be a #1 or #2 pitcher. (His fastball doesn't move much.)

2005-12-22 12:10:36
152.   Penarol1916
148 and 141
Why are you going with the personal attacks? I don't think that's how it is done here at all. Maybe you should take it to another board where this kind of attitude is tolerated.
2005-12-22 12:15:25
153.   scanderbeg
148 Please stop with this stuff.
2005-12-22 12:15:53
154.   molokai
I expect Chad to follow the Cain route and we will see him in Aug/Sept.

Why would Saenz be trade bait? Any team that wanted him could have signed him several weeks ago. Evidently he is not in demand or he would have been signed for more then that measly amount he signed with us. RH platoon 1st baseman are a dime a dozen. You see Wes Helms/E Perez signing anywhere? No one is going to trade for Olmedo.

2005-12-22 12:18:49
155.   greenchris
You're right...I am sorry for the personal attacks. Not appropriate here.
2005-12-22 12:20:42
156.   molokai
See what happens when Jon takes a day off.

I think Tomko has purposely backed away from the strikeout because he had that incredible outfield to run down his fly balls. With Bonds/Grissom/Alou out there he must have been daring the hitters to find a gap:)

Yes I know that those 3 rarely played together last year but don't spoil my fun.

2005-12-22 12:21:42
157.   Fallout
148. greenchris

That was over the top and the name calling is uncalled-for.

2005-12-22 12:22:29
158.   greenchris
FYI, I just found out that Tomko had a better offer from the Nationals, so I guess I am wrong by saying that Ned overpaid.
2005-12-22 12:23:15
159.   greenchris
157 - see 155
2005-12-22 12:27:24
160.   scanderbeg
158 Where'd you hear that?
2005-12-22 12:29:28
161.   MartinBillingsley31
I seriously think the dodgers should trade for an abreu type outfielder, because with tomko in our rotation its like having jackson or houlton in our rotation, we are going to need to score more runs than we are going to get out of our current starting lineup.

The main guys in the trade should be jackson because he has no spot on the team, choi because we have 3 1b's and he's more valuable than seanz, and aybar because we have 2 utility infielders and he is more valuable than robles, add a middle infield prospect or 2 like hu and abreu, throw in repko if the team wants him, throw in ethier, we do have guzman for the outfield next year with the abreu type and drew, then a couple years down the line we have kemp.

And cruz ledee as the backups.

2005-12-22 12:31:46
162.   greenchris
An unnamed source

j/k I know his agent, just got off the phone with him.

2005-12-22 12:33:17
163.   slackfarmer
According to Rotoworld "The Pirates are targeting Juan Encarnacion as they continue to seek an upgrade to their offense."

Bless Tracy's heart. I hope he finds a home in Pittsburgh for all misfit ballplayers. Maybe they would give us Bay for Repko and some other scrappy guys. Too bad Ned non-tendered Edwards cause now the Bucs can get him for free.

2005-12-22 12:33:59
164.   Midwest Blue
161 Just don't think the Phillies would bite, even if we threw in OP with all that. They want something big, meaty and proven.
2005-12-22 12:34:48
165.   Fallout
159. greenchris

:) Beleive me, I disagree a lot of what is said on this board especially when it discusses DePo. I mostly just laugh at it and reply. Cannot take this too seriously.

2005-12-22 12:37:03
166.   MartinBillingsley31
Well as i said, AN ABREU TYPE, not necessarily him.

And for my previous post 161 if i had my way i'd start cruz over lofton, but ned won't do that.

2005-12-22 12:38:08
167.   sanchez101
How did Colletti "overpay" for Tomko:
2002 3.6
2003 2.5
2004 3.7
2005 4.1

ave 3.5 warp

Tomko has established himself as a 3-4 win player, mainly because of his durability, which should be worth $6-8 million on the FA market. How is paying him ~$3.5 million a bad deal? The Dodgers needed one more starter capable of pitching 200 innings and they got him. Penny, Lowe, Perez, Tompko, and Billingsley/Jackson/Houlton is a fine rotation. Remember that in the second half of 2005 the dodgers only had 3 effective starters and one of them was named Lima. You dont have a true #1 or a bunch of big names in the rotation to make the playoffs, especially in this division.

2005-12-22 12:41:03
168.   sanchez101
161. if Colletti could or wanted to get Abreu (or someone similar), it probably wouldve happened already. Weather you want it to happen or not, its just not in the cards right now. Probably the most available OF bat right now is Manny Ramirez, do you really think he's a good idea?
2005-12-22 12:41:55
169.   MartinBillingsley31
Hell even huff would work, altho i'd like a little better.
2005-12-22 12:46:00
170.   MartinBillingsley31
Not necessarily, think about it when there was rumors about abreu we still had 2 holes in our rotation, now we have 1 and ned is talking about filling that hole possibly with eith millwood or weaver, so after another free agent signing jackson becomes totally expendable, and also it was before we got nomar and now choi is totally expendable.

And no on manny.

2005-12-22 12:51:03
171.   MartinBillingsley31
Adding to 170
If i remember right, the rumors about abreu was before we got ethier also.

jackson choi aybar ethier 1 or 2 of hu abreu, and repko if they want.

Huff would work, he plays multiple positions too.

2005-12-22 12:51:14
172.   sanchez101
170. where is ned talking about millwood or weaver? The Phillies, or anyone else, wants a frontline starter. Assuming that they think Lowe fits that description, they would also want prospects back. I can see the Phillies using Aybar, but why would they want Choi? Your proposed trade looks more like a Dodger fan proposing a obvioulsy lopsided trade more than a real one that could actually happen.
2005-12-22 12:52:56
173.   sanchez101
171. TB just turned down Andy Marte for Julio Lugo, how much are they going to ask for Huff? They were asking the Mets for Milledge + pitching prospect for Huff back in July.
2005-12-22 12:56:54
174.   MartinBillingsley31
In multiple places l.a. times, home page have said he is still talking to boras about millwood and weaver.
2005-12-22 12:58:50
175.   MartinBillingsley31
And if you missed it he said he wants billingsley and jackson to start the season in the minors and doesn't want to trade billingsley orenduff tiffany but no mention of jackson and said he wants houlton in the pen as a swingman.
2005-12-22 13:06:05
176.   s choir
I for one am happy about the Tomko signing. I've seen him throw quite a few gems for the Giants over the years. He had 13 quality starts for the last year, but got inconsistent run support since Bonds was injured, so he only won 8 games. If the Dodgers can manage to consistently score 4 runs per game, Tomko (and the rest of the staff, for that matter) will be just fine.
2005-12-22 13:10:31
177.   MikeB
One can only hope an "Abreu-type" OF could be acquired at a reasonable price with either $ and/or players - this late in the off-season. I don't belive Manny is a possibility now, not unless Ned breaks up his recently patched-up roster, or decides to unload several of the top prospects he's kept safe - so far.

Ned may want just one more solid, veteran, experienced, reasonably priced (select suitable MSM adjective here) starter before spring training begins - and then adjusts the roster as best he can as the season progresses.

He has two really big positives working for him in 2006 --
- the NL West is not a powerhouse division
- expectations for the Dodgers are lower due to the results of last season's bad karma

Some good luck and weak NL West opposition could make the current team a winner - even with all of its flaws and question marks. Like Woody Allen says - "85% of success is just showing up."

2005-12-22 13:15:44
178.   MartinBillingsley31
If only ned would put nomar in the outfield with drew and cruz and have choi/seanz in the infield with kent furcal mueller.

Lofton over choi/seanz does not cut it for me.

Its not a nomar thing its a lofton thing.

2005-12-22 13:23:31
179.   Winthrop
178 - Do you prefer Lofton over Mueller? It seems Nomar could be used at any one of of LF 3B or 1B.
2005-12-22 13:25:08
180.   MartinBillingsley31
I prefer mueller over lofton.
2005-12-22 13:31:21
181.   FirstMohican
Could Nomar really last in LF? I would much rather Nomar in LF and Choilmedo at fulltime 1B, but I don't think it's feasable.
2005-12-22 13:39:46
182.   das411
173 - Um, no, I'm pretty sure the guys at DRaysbay would tell you the Marte for Lugo deal was never offered to TB.

Boston may be up for it depending on how desperate they get with Damon gone. Lugo + Joey G for Marte would make sense for both teams now that the NYY's gaping CF hole has been traded up north for Damon.

2005-12-22 13:39:51
183.   blue22
Lofton/Werth vs. Choi/Saenz (3 year averages)

Lofton vs. LHP - .371/.439/.810
Werth vs. RHP - .329/.414/.743

Choi vs. RHP - .357/.461/.818
Saenz vs. LHP - .371/.578/.949

Edge to Choi/Saenz in the OPS department, though Saenz' numbers may not hold (his #'s started to slip last year).

Defensively, the advantage goes to the Lofton/Werth pair. Lofton and Werth are both good OFers, whereas Choi is league average and Saenz is a stiff.

2005-12-22 13:46:18
184.   MartinBillingsley31
But is ned going to platoon lofton? and with werth? and werth is injured and who knows when he will be ready.
Also lofton was wanting playing time when he was seeking his deal.
I got a feeling lofton is everyday(of course with some days off like everyone gets).
2005-12-22 13:48:21
185.   MartinBillingsley31
Add to 184, that's why i didn't want lofton, i only wanted him if he would be a pinch hitter/runner.
2005-12-22 13:53:01
186.   MartinBillingsley31
There is just not enough power in our lineup, catcher 3b ss cf are all light hitters, we have drew kent nomar and to a lesser extent cruz as our power guys.

4 positions with very little power, that's half of the lineup.

2005-12-22 13:54:47
187.   Vishal
[186] on which major league baseball teams does half the lineup NOT lack power, more or less?
2005-12-22 13:57:05
188.   natepurcell
lofton isnt going to play every day. hes going to play roughly 70% of the time. roughly 70% of the time we will be facing right handed starters. soo... you can connect the dots.

werth will platoon with lofton because when his wrist was healthy, he mashes left handed pitching.

also martinbilllingsley, all your trade proposals are way off and just flat out wont happen. you just cant dump spare parts for to other clubs hoping they will deal their best player. and, abreu type OFs do not grow on trees, there are not that many available.

what colletti is doing here is that he is building depth. injuries during a baseball season are unavoidable, colletti realizes that. we are adding depth to offset though injuries.

2005-12-22 13:59:24
189.   natepurcell
if we are not going to trade Odalis, we need to make do with what we have. Jackson NEEDS to thrown out there every 5th day and pitch consistently. I am really tired of dodger fans not wanting to go through the growing pains with youngsters and letting them develop. this type of attitude lead to the konerko trade and to us not having any decent homegrown talent over the past 5-6 years.
2005-12-22 13:59:51
190.   MartinBillingsley31
On which major league baseball teams does the starting pitching suck like the dodgers starting pitching. tomko blows.
But i'll wait till i see our final starting pitcher, i'm just not anticipating him being anything special, probably byung gyung dyung tryung kim.

Our starting rotation is not good enough for our non power lineup.

2005-12-22 13:59:57
191.   blue22
184 - Werth will find his way into the lineup occasionally when he returns - the likeliest scenario would be some form of a platoon with Lofton. Cruz is traditonally very strong as a RH.

186 - This year's lineup may not have the power, but it's much more balanced. There are no glaring holes like Izturis, Phillips, and Valentin/Nakamura. Navarro is by far the worst hitter in the lineup, and even he projects to be above league average for catchers.

2005-12-22 14:02:51
192.   natepurcell
re 190

tomko doesnt blow. he is above replacement level. he averages 3.5 warp the last 4 years. if he can get us 3.5 warp next year, he will be underpaid.

the payroll is already close to 100 mil, i dont really want to go over it.

2005-12-22 14:05:16
193.   MartinBillingsley31
""the payroll is already close to 100 mil, i dont really want to go over it.""

Quotes like this makes me think you are frank mccourt, hello its not your money so who cares, if it makes your team better spend it.

2005-12-22 14:06:14
194.   natepurcell
oh lookie, JP wants russ martin.

so most of Ricciardi's efforts in addressing the catching picture have focused on trying to deal for prospects such as Koyie Hill and Russ Martin. Martin is a native of Toronto who was raised in Montreal and is a Los Angeles Dodgers prospect.

2005-12-22 14:09:53
195.   blue22
194 - Last night's South Park was about the Canadian government passing a law allowing parents to reclaim their children that were given up for adoption (Kyle's little brother Ike is Canadian, wackiness ensues).

Maybe Toronto thinks that they are entitled to Martin by birthright.

2005-12-22 14:10:07
196.   natepurcell
if JP wants to do a martin, jackson and choi swap for halladay, then come on down!
2005-12-22 14:15:15
197.   trainwreck
Heard this crazy rumor on AN:
Cubs get Tejada
Baltimore gets Zito
A's get Prior

Do not buy it, but it's such a blockbuster, that it is fun to talk about.

2005-12-22 14:16:58
198.   natepurcell
yea right, A's wish they can trade zito for prior lol.
2005-12-22 14:24:12
199.   trainwreck
Apparently Orioles are talking to DBacks about Bedard for Glaus.
2005-12-22 14:25:32
200.   Vishal
[190] well, let's look at our division first. if you want to challenge me with some hard numbers, that's fine. i don't have the time or energy to do it though so i'm just going to list names and infer:

el duque, ortiz, webb, halsey, vargas... we win.

do i even need to go into it? we win.

peavy, williams, park.............. they have a better #1, but the rest of our staff is way better.

schmidt, morris, cain, lowry, hennessey

schmidt is a true ace, but our second-tier starters are at least as good as theirs, and i think our rookie #5 starter(s) will be better than hennessey. this one's close but then our lineup is definitely better than SF's.

so we're better than the division. let's look at some other possible contenders: the cubs' top starters are better but they don't an entire 5. the astros without clemens are just oswalt and pettitte and filler. the cards have a fairly solid rotation though. the marlins don't have anyone except willis and cabrera. the braves have smoltz and hudson, but smoltz is old and the other guys are questionable, esp. without mazzone... the mets: glavine and martinez are both getting up there, and beyond that... benson and filler? the phillies don't have an ace, and they traded away padilla...

the national league just doesn't have a ton of good pitching anymore. our rotation is at least comparable to the rest of the league's contenders, top to bottom. it's above average.

really we're not that bad.

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2005-12-22 14:27:23
201.   trainwreck
Lowry is better than our best pitcher Penny and I think Cain will be better than Tomko and ODP. So I think the Giants have a better starting rotation.
2005-12-22 14:30:55
202.   Fallout
192. natepurcell

>the payroll is already close to 100 mil, i dont really want to go over it.<

Why not? Are you McCourt's accountant?

2005-12-22 14:31:35
203.   natepurcell
i personally dont trust lowry to keep it up. he is walking the fine line between being tom glavine and turning into kirk rueter.
2005-12-22 14:33:35
204.   Fallout
>schmidt is a true ace<

Last yr Schmidt's fastball dropped 4-6 mph.

2005-12-22 14:35:45
205.   Fallout
203. natepurcell

You never know. Remember Jerome Williams? You could be right.

2005-12-22 14:36:32
206.   trainwreck
Very true. He always looks like he is going to drop off then he just reels off a string of dominant games. He is their ace right now and until he falters I have no reason to think he can not continue his success. Last season he learned to make adjustments after hitters figured him out, so that shows he is a real pitcher.
2005-12-22 14:36:35
207.   s choir
martinbillingsley--you're right that the payroll should be higher, after all, this is LA, not Pittsburgh or Kansas City. However, higher payroll translates to higher ticket prices. Are you willing to make that sacrifice?

Personally, I am. I live in SF and it costs $50 to go to a game at PacSBCT&T Park and the seats still suck. Plus it's cold and wet and the smell of nasty garlic fries is ubiquitous. When I'm in LA I can sit in the top deck behind home plate for $12/2 tix with the real fans. I don't mind if that goes up to $20. Hell, I pay $20 to see a movie nowadays, I'd rather spend that on some Dodger Baseball...

2005-12-22 14:40:09
208.   trainwreck
Lowry is not a fireballer at all, but his changeup is a really good pitch, far better than any garbage Reuter has.
2005-12-22 14:41:00
209.   MartinBillingsley31
Altho i live 3000 miles away from dodger stadium.
2005-12-22 14:46:02
210.   Winthrop
203 - Precisely. Kirk Reuter is a prover veteran. Ned loves that stuff.
2005-12-22 14:46:09
211.   dzzrtRatt
200 It's not just the NL West that is, overall, mediocre. It's the entire National League. It's become like the NFC has been in pro football the past 5-10 years. AL teams can't stand pat, they have to keep up with the competition, and they find NL teams willing to part with top talent in exchange for warm bodies. The Dodgers could well turn out to be the third or fourth best team in the NL as of right now--behind only the Cardinals, the Mets and maybe the Braves. But they'd be killed in the AL, clearly inferior to NY, Boston, Chisox, Indians, Angels and A's, and probably no better than even with the Jays, Twins and Rangers.

This won't change until one of the NL teams solidifies enough to set a target for the others.

2005-12-22 14:54:25
212.   blue22
clearly inferior to NY, Boston, Chisox, Indians, Angels and A's, and probably no better than even with the Jays, Twins and Rangers

Strong stuff there. Kind of tough to be ranking teams right now, with so much player movement and everyone talking about their "potential".

I'd say that everyone, including the teams you named, has at least one glaring weakness as of right now. The Cardinals are still the class of the NL, but look at that rotation and bullpen. Thank goodness for the blossoming of Chris Carpenter, or they would be seriously hurting. Even their offense is down from a few years ago, as Rolen and Edmunds may be slowing down. Helps to have Pujols though.

2005-12-22 14:56:35
213.   sanchez101
211. I dont think id go as far as say that the Braves arent as good as the Twin or Rangers, thats fairly outlandish. But I think that one a big reason that never comes up when talking about their streak of division titles is that no one in their division has really come up with that great a team, or to have a good team for more than one year in a row. Of course these things are cyclical, five years from now where will old teams like the ChiSox, Yanks, and Red Sox be while teams like the Brewers, Braves, and (hopefully) the Dodgers prosper with young-homegrown talent.
2005-12-22 14:57:04
214.   Vishal
[211] yeah, that was kind of my point. the entire NL sucks. the dodgers as constructed could do pretty well in the 2006 NL.
2005-12-22 14:59:02
215.   teeth
Re: 167
BP's methodology for replacement level is pretty funky, and I don't think that Tomko is really 40-50 runs above replacement. He is ~15 runs above replacement as a starter, though, which makes him about average. But also don't base his value on his run totals from previous years - the way you value a player is to PROJECT his performance moving forward. He's not too old, so he is a decent bet to continue to be 1.5-2 wins above replacement, which makes $4m not unreasonable, but certainly far from optimal.

Re: 176
4 R/G? Do you really believe that? Last year they averaged 4.23. How in the world would be Tomko - who hasn't had an ERA, let alone an RA, under 4 since 1997 be "just fine"

2005-12-22 15:00:53
216.   sanchez101
207. kc and pittsburgh wish they could have a $90 million payroll, has either team really had a payroll even half that?
2005-12-22 15:07:22
217.   sanchez101
215. where do you come up with ~15 runs above replacement level. is that just your estimation? compared to some of the other contracts handed out to starting pitchers this offseason, i think tomko is a very good deal. There are mediocre middle-relievers getting paid more. Esteban Loaiza is only a slightly better pitcher by most estimations, and he's getting $7 million a year over 3 years.

Some people here seem to think that unless the dodgers have 5 front line starters and an outfield full of power hitters the team is doomed.

2005-12-22 15:16:05
218.   Vishal
[215] counting only his starts, tomko allowed fewer than 4 runs (any runs, not just earned runs) 16 times last year. he allowed exactly 4 runs 7 times. he allowed more than 4 runs 7 times.
2005-12-22 15:16:47
219.   regfairfield
217 Tomko's VORP last year was 19.8. As a comparision, Loaiza was 42.1.
2005-12-22 15:17:45
220.   trainwreck
Loaiza was 24th in VORP and Tomko was 115th. I think Loaiza is significantly better. They both pitched in pitchers parks and they both are going to continue playing in pitchers parks. Loaiza had a 173/55 k/bb ratio last season and over his career he has been very good at not giving up too many walks, he pitches even more innings than Tomko, and he has a had a couple of dominant seasons which Tomko has never had and he is going to be the A's fifth starter and may be the best 5th starter in baseball (depending on what happens with the White Sox). So I understand why Loaiza got what he got.
2005-12-22 15:19:03
221.   blue22
217/219 - Replace Loaiza with Matt Morris (18.9 VORP) then.
2005-12-22 15:20:55
222.   blue22
220 - So I understand why Loaiza got what he got.

Just not from whom. The A's were probably the last team I would've thought would get him for that price.

2005-12-22 15:24:07
223.   trainwreck
But think how good their pitching staff is. It is absolutely dominant. Their entire pitching staff was in the top 33 rankings of VORP last season, that is ridiculous. Plus they have future insurance when Zito is gone, in case Harden or someone gets hurt, and in case Meyer never recovers. Why not get another good pitcher if you can and have the best staff in baseball. The A's know their team is built on pitching so why not make it even stronger.
2005-12-22 15:27:16
224.   regfairfield
221 Morris at least has the benifit of not sucking at some point in his career.

Tomko has done some horrible things in his career, like allowing 35 home runs while pitching in one of the hardest parks to hit home runs, while putting up the only good groundball to flyball ratio he had in his career. Tomko has been above average twice in his career, and one of those instances he benifited from one of the lowests BABIPs in baseball. I honestly see nothing about this guy to get excited about, other than the fact that he's relatively cheap.

2005-12-22 15:28:39
225.   MartinBillingsley31
You get what you pay for.
2005-12-22 15:34:45
226.   blue22
223 - I get ya, just seems like a luxury they might not be able to afford with a sub-$50M payroll. Beane couldn't have found a better place to spend $7M than a 5th starter?
2005-12-22 15:37:37
227.   trainwreck
Wolfe has raised the payroll so the A's had some flexibility this offseason. They got young players all around so I do not think they really want to go sign a big name player to take over for a young guy. They still may sign Thomas. I think Beane rather spend money on getting 4 bargains (Bradley and Perez included) then spending money on one player and I do not even know who else the A's would have targeted.
2005-12-22 15:38:18
228.   Izzy
I must've missed this, but Ethier had a .495 OBP in the AFL. I didn't realize he was that good. So maybe we will see him in the latter part of the year.
2005-12-22 15:38:47
229.   trainwreck
Actually I probably should not call Loaiza a bargain haha, but he saw a chance to make their pitching staff even more deep and dominant.
2005-12-22 15:54:28
230.   sanchez101
loaiza has a translated 4.04 era, tomko 4.23. Loaiza is the better pitcher, but he's not twice as valuable as tomko
2005-12-22 15:58:21
231.   sanchez101
223. i should say that i dont think loaiza is a bad signing, he should be worth the money for at least the first year or two or the contract. I just think that the dodgers need a guy that can throw 200 innings of league average pitching, and Colletti got that in Tomko for a very reasonable price. it seems that some are dissapointed in him because he isnt a top starter, so he must be a waste of time. In Dodger Stadium, Tomko should put up an ERA around 4 and start 30+ times. Weaver did the same for over $9 million last year.
2005-12-22 16:02:11
232.   s choir
I've been doing the math, and I just don't see where Choi fits in the roster unless Garciaparra is used as a super-backup. But I've heard murmurs on this board re Garciaparra wanting to stay at only one position, and that being the reason Nomar chose the LADs over the Yanks. Was there a source to those comments or was that just media speculation?
2005-12-22 16:02:27
233.   trainwreck
Yeah, I just think people see more upside in Weaver. I do not like Tomko that much, I rather him be a fifth starter, but I think some of us just want to see the young guys get a shot and stay in the rotation.
2005-12-22 16:05:29
234.   Andrew Shimmin
I'm not high on Tomko, but he's probably better than sending Jackson back in to the lions' den, now. I don't think we're properly Tracy-adjusting Weaver's numbers, though. As per:

After Jeff Weaver has thrown 90 pitches in a game this season, opponents have gone 29 for 97 against him with five walks, three hit by pitch, six doubles and five home runs, for a .352 on-base percentage, .515 slugging percentage and .867 OPS. From pitches 1-90, opponents are only on-basing .275, slugging .419 and OPSing .694.

2005-12-22 16:09:17
235.   blue22
234 - I'm not commiting $40M to a guy that can't throw more than 90 pitches. That's 6 innings.
2005-12-22 16:14:03
236.   Andrew Shimmin
235- I don't think Weaver's worth the money, particularly, I just also don't think it's true that Tomko is about as good as Weaver is. Or could be. Maybe it wasn't worth bring up. . .
2005-12-22 16:14:25
237.   Michael Green
Now some people consider six innings a quality start. I remember how, any time someone referred to that as a quality start, Don Drysdale would snort and snarl on the air.

The other thing about Weaver is that he seemed to lose something--maybe his concentration, maybe his control--more visibly and damagingly than other pitches. I say that without numbers nearby, but that was my impression of him.

2005-12-22 16:19:55
238.   blue22
One name that was thrown around a lot towards the end of the season was Ted Lilly. I haven't heard another thing about him, whether he had signed or not. He was a very popular pick for a mid-range salaried 4th starter.

Anyone know anything about him?

2005-12-22 16:20:25
239.   jasonungar05
Are there any Ace like arms we can get in a trade? who would you guys want?

I find the list being short and in most cases unthinkable. I'd be willing to give up top prospects for a great arm under 30, but who?

2005-12-22 16:20:59
240.   trainwreck
He is not a free agent till next season, so he is going to continue to pitch for the Blue Jays.
2005-12-22 16:21:33
241.   TheMan

Interestingly, Bill James projects Odalis Perez to do better than Weaver.

Weaver does help to solidify our rotation, but I would rather have a true ace.

1. Penny
2. Lowe
3. Perez
4. Tomko
5. Weaver/Ace

2005-12-22 16:22:05
242.   trainwreck
Zito is the best available, but we would have to give up too much. I rather just wait till next year and sign him as a free agent. I still like the idea of trading for Contreras, but I have no idea what we would have to give up to get him.
2005-12-22 16:24:30
243.   blue22
240 - Very strange. Must've been a lot of people that misinterpreted his contract status since he was a lot of people's sleeper choice for this offseason.
2005-12-22 16:25:17
244.   trainwreck
I am no mathematician and I am surely no Bill James, but I think ODP sucks next year. I think he gets injured a lot and he gives up a lot of home runs. He looked terrible to me this past season and he does not have the work ethic to make himself better.
2005-12-22 16:25:31
245.   blue22
241 - I'll be sick to my stomach if we give Weaver 3-4 years.
2005-12-22 16:27:39
246.   trainwreck
I have to remember to add my LZ for 07 signature on each post.
2005-12-22 16:28:23
247.   s choir
234. Weaver's lefty-righty splits are even more dramatic, and, I think, have more to do with his struggles after 90 pitches (which is really his inability to get through the batting order a third time on most nights).

over the last 3 years:
lefties vs. weaver BA .309 OPS .875 HR 46
righties vs. weaver BA .238 OPS .632 HR 24

compared with Tomko over 3 years

lefties vs. Tomko BA .299 OPS .838 HR 35
righties vs. Tomko BA .265 OPS .748 HR 39

Even more telling is that opposing managers load their lineups with lefties to face Weaver, but they don't do this to Tomko:

Lefty AB vs Weaver: 1252
Righty AB vs Weaver: 1107
Lefty AB vs Tomko: 1073
Righty AB vs Tomko: 1254

I don't know whether it is Weaver's approach, his catchers' pitch selection, or if it's just his movement that makes it easier for lefties to hit him. But if, and only if, it's possible for him to improve his performance vs lefties, he would be a dominant pitcher.

Does anyone know of a pitcher with a comparable split who has been able to overcome it?

2005-12-22 16:28:51
248.   mob
239 -

Jon Garland ChiSox is suppose to be on the block, he won 18 last year so he might be "Ace Like" but they are looking for young arms and it seems like Ned is reluctant to part with any. for my money enuf of waiting for edwin jackson, ship him out if you can get a garland out of it

2005-12-22 16:30:46
249.   trainwreck
Garland peaked last season in my opinion. His career numbers are not very good, I really want nothing to do with him because it would cost us valuable prospects for an overrated player.
2005-12-22 16:31:08
250.   Xeifrank
232. Unfortunately he is a backup at 1B and a spot starter vs RHP and a left handed bat off the bench. vr, Xei
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2005-12-22 16:33:39
251.   blue22
244 - Talk about a guy that gets a bad rap (wrap?). Since coming to LA 4 years ago, he pitched 30+ starts 3 seasons, but only started 19 last year due to injuries. He is certainly capable of putting up big numbers (and has done so):

VORPs for the last 3 years:
2005 - 8.6
2004 - 49.7
2003 - 19.7
2002 - 59.9 (10th in the ML)

2005-12-22 16:33:55
252.   TheMan

I was just as suprised as you were. Of course, his projections were not looking at injuries. I think we should keep ODal until Billingsley can fend for himself.

2005-12-22 16:35:03
253.   natepurcell
ODP has had a history of sucking on odd years, and doing very well on even years.

what do you know, next year is an even year! get on the ODP bandwagon before its full everyone!

2005-12-22 16:35:47
254.   trainwreck
That is horribly inconsistent. That is all that tells me and of course that he was terrible last season. It is possible he could just be going downhill. Which is what I think, but hopefully I am wrong.
2005-12-22 16:35:51
255.   TheMan

Garland could be nice. I still maintain that if there is any way to get a hold of Zito, we should do it. I am fixated with him and his ace-like status. The other option is a monster-deal for Millwood.

2005-12-22 16:44:08
256.   natepurcell
I am fixated with him and his ace-like status.

his ace like status is an illusion! dont fall for it!

2005-12-22 16:45:28
257.   trainwreck
Zito would be the ace of our team.

LZ in 07

2005-12-22 16:47:21
258.   blue22
I must say, you guys seem rather fickle. OP has been one of the top 20 pitchers in the majors in 2 of the last 4 years, and happens to be left-handed. Yet he "sucks" and should be traded. He seems like a good #3 starter to me.

At the same time, lobbying to bring in Garland and his one good season (not to mention that contract is about to get expensive) in exchange for prospects. It doesn't seem right.

2005-12-22 16:49:49
259.   trainwreck
I said Garland is overrated and we should not get him and I think ODP will never be the pitcher he was so I am consitent...uhhh if that is the right word for your argument.
2005-12-22 16:51:16
260.   trainwreck
2005-12-22 16:59:12
261.   blue22
Sorry, trainwreck, I didn't mean to put words in your mouth. I don't think Odalis is injury-prone, unless his shoulder injury from last year is recurring. He hadn't ever really been hurt before that, aside from the TJ when he was really young. And he's been a productive pitcher for the majority of his career in LA. Solid pitcher, in my opinion.

Garland is fool's gold, however. So on that we agree...

2005-12-22 17:03:03
262.   Vishal
[256] zito is not an ace?

who then, by your definition, is an ace? there must not be very many.

2005-12-22 17:05:49
263.   blue22
262 - nate must've meant either Millwood or Garland. nate's the biggest Zito-pimp around.
2005-12-22 17:16:32
264.   Vishal
[263] he's got some competition then; zito's my favorite player.
2005-12-22 17:16:46
265.   natepurcell
it is true that i am a huge zito fan but i dont view him as an ace. i think aces in the bigs are really rare, maybe at the most 10. Zito is in that upper tier group of pitchers right before "ace" ranking.

i would love zito on the dodgers though.

2005-12-22 17:19:35
266.   trainwreck
I think Zito is ideally a number 2, but can be an ace for many teams just because pitching quality is so scarce. This is why the A's rotation is so special. Zito could potentially be their 4th starter.

LZ in 07

2005-12-22 17:56:36
267.   MikeB
Through the 2004 season, Jon Garland was considered a big disappointment - by scouts, statheads and media pundits alike. For a guy with all the tools, he just couldn't quite get over the next hill that led from prospect-ville to bigtime-town.

He's got the classic pitchers body, throws 90+, and has excellent command - but for some reason, didn't post high K numbers, and was deemed "hittable." Then, as some pitchers are wont to do, he emerged from the foggy years of his youth, and at the ripe old age of 25, he discovered a sinker, and improved his change up - and voila - a MLB pitcher is born!

To me, acquiring Garland makes sense - if we don't give up the farm to get him. He's healthy, eats up innings, and has a lot of upside. He has not peaked. On the contrary, getting a pitcher of Garland's ability as he enters his 26th year should be considered a good thing.

2005-12-22 18:12:24
268.   trainwreck
Garland could have turned the corner, but we would have to probably give up a lot to get him and there are too many questions in my mind about him to make him worth giving up what we would have to give up to acquire him.
2005-12-22 18:15:16
269.   Uncle Miltie
258- I agree, Perez is underrated. When healthy, he's at least our 2nd best pitcher (behind Penny). I'd rather have Perez at his current salary than Millwood at $11+ million a year. Millwood is extremely overrated. Look at his peripherals from 2004 and compare them to 2005. His K/9 dropped more than 1 full point. His control was better, but he also had the Indians tremendous infield defense playing behind him. Say no to Millwood!
2005-12-22 18:30:50
270.   blue22
265 - Ok, so you're talking "Ace" as in Oswalt, Clemens, Santana. I'd agree that Zito is not in that company. But he'd be there in the top 20 pitchers in the majors, which is pretty dang good, if not ace material.
2005-12-22 18:40:45
271.   MikeB
Trainwreck - no argument with avoiding any overpayment for the rights to Garland. But, if Colletti could swing a deal that is reasonable - I would have no objections.
Hey, lets really get crazy and land Garland AND Zito. After all, it's the Christmas season. Nothing wrong with asking Santa for something really cool.
2005-12-22 18:41:00
272.   27indigo
Anyone fluent in Korean?
Care to decipher what this HSC cartoon is all about?

2005-12-22 18:44:28
273.   molokai
OP is underrated here. I'm not a big fan and was critical of his contract last year but if were going to give Tomko 4.0 per year then OP's current contract is reasonable and as Nate said his even years have been very good. On a good year OP is the best number 3 pitcher around on 90% of teams. His VORP in 2004/2002 would have made him the ace of last years team. Tomko has never pitched well, just alot. I guess that is now worth 4 million.
2005-12-22 18:50:34
274.   MikeB
Molokai - I'm with you. Odalis may be maddening at times, but there's no question he's a quality starter when healthy. But, that's the risk with any pitcher - injury. If he's healthy, I believe there's a good chance he'll return to form.
2005-12-22 19:06:12
275.   trainwreck
I actually agreed with giving ODP that contract. Just after this past season, he really struggled and I just lost all confidence in him. Almost like he has been a different pitcher since the Cardinals crushed him in the playoff opener.
2005-12-22 20:01:12
276.   Blu2
272 Judging from the uniform numbers, I would GUESS it suggests an argument (debate) about who is going to play first base. First there's Choi, then Saenz, Kent, Furcal, et al...
2005-12-22 20:15:47
277.   Albert in Hong Kong
272, 276 Mueller tells the kids (#13 Robles and #49 Aybar) to shoo off . "This is my position, go away you kids." Meanwhile Nomar jumps into the 1B spot. Drew is in the outfield thinking, "What's all the commotion those kids are putting up in the infield?" or something of that sort. The actual quote by Drew is Korean slang according to my friend.
2005-12-22 20:53:32
278.   Brendan

Greenchris, I had to step out of the office and didn't get a chance to respond to your response. I reread my post and it read really sarcastic so I apologize. Should have added an emoitcon, I guess. Didn't mean to mock you. I should have asked a question instead of the "make me laugh" statement.

I can see where people on this site may be able to say that a contract is way too high or that it was a steal but I'm not sure how a person on this site has the expertise or the knowledge of a particular signing to claim that a player was slightly overpaid or dodgers slightly overpaid. That was my point and now that I think about it I should have kept it to myself. Not that important of a point to make after-all.

Somehow I'm reminded of the Joe Pesci rant in Good Fellas "Do I Amuse you?... on your response so that did make me laugh today but in a good way.

P.S.S.. I'm in favor of the Furcal signing because I think he is better than Izzy across the board and the 3 years should be his most productive. Izzy is a question mark with the injury now and how much of last year was regression or injury related? Plus Izzy is the poster child for 8th place hitters of the world. Have a Merry Christmas and I'll try to hold back the snark in the new year.

2005-12-22 21:01:21
279.   regfairfield
It's amazing how cartoons I don't even understand provide far more accurate commentary than the Times.
2005-12-22 22:58:24
280.   greenchris
278 - no worries, I went overboard as well.

My statement about Tomko being slightly overpaid was a direct result of my dialogue with his agent, he is a friend of mine. I know they were considering an offer for considerably less money at two years about two weeks ago from Texas, and I haven't spoken to him since then. I called him after the news broke of Tomko coming to LA and he said that they received a higher offer from the Nationals, but that Brett wanted to play in LA, it was his first choice due to his family being here.

I was one of the original posters who mentioned Tomko as a possible "innings eater"/#4 starter. I am all for the signing, and the slightly overpaid remark was a reaction to what I had heard from his agent about offers during the first week of Dec. (right after the winter meetings). Apparently quite a few teams were interested (including the Padres) which probably drove up his price, thus the 2 year deal at an average of around $4mil per.

2005-12-22 23:15:08
281.   Brendan

Ok so my comment was really misplaced on you. I didn't realize that you actually had info like that. I thought you were just talking out of your hat. Again It was stupid comment to make even if you didn't have that type of info. Lesson learned.

2005-12-22 23:26:08
282.   J Rebel

That cartoon is great...totally going on my myspace!

2005-12-23 00:21:53
283.   LAT
At least one other blog thinks we have the west sewn up.

Also the comments there say Gammons says:

"Glaus to Blue Jays?
Dec 22 - Peter Gammons reports one American League GM says he "expects Troy Glaus to Toronto to happen." Boston and Baltimore have been in, but the Blue Jays were the leaders on Thursday."

Would have liked Glaus over Mueller straight up, but when you include Glaus' contract I'll take Mueller.

I'm willing to live with OP for another year. I think he can get his form back. Its not like he's Kaz. . .

2005-12-23 01:15:12
284.   oldbear
Sure, getting a mediocre pitcher like Tomko for 4.5 mils, is better than getting a mediocre pitcher like Weaver for 9mils.

But in the end, they are both mediocre.

The Dodgers havent improved their staff at all. And pitching was the bad spot right?

Here's to hoping that OP/Gagne bounce back. And that Lowe doesnt regress (i've a bad feeling he might).

As for comparing the rotations of the NL West. I think the Giants staff is probably better at this point.

2005-12-23 03:03:19
285.   teemint
I would have preferred to go with the mediocre pitcher we already had, in either Houlton or Jackson. They might have done worse, but not substantially so and in the long term giving them the experience would have helped more than giving those starts to Tomko.
2005-12-23 08:29:27
286.   blue22
280/281 - It's a Festivus miracle! :-P

Rumor mill on a brutally slow Friday at work:

Per Rotoworld: Speculating (there's that word again) that LA might still be in the hunt for David Wells (or possibly Matt Clement), using JD Drew as trade bait.

Per ESPN: Weaver is seeking a 4/$38M deal from the Dodgers.

Don't make me laugh...ha ha ha.

2005-12-23 08:34:38
287.   27indigo
If there's any truth to that speculation, Colletti must have some absurd ideas about offense.

Trading Drew would leave only one real power hitter in the offense. I'd hate to see a re-run of 2004 all for the sake of having "character" guys.

2005-12-23 08:43:17
288.   blue22
287 - Maybe LA inserts themselves into a 3-way with Boston and a 3rd team (the Mets) involving Manny? LA gives up Drew, gets back prospects (Milledge, Papelbon?) and short term contracts (Trot Nixon, Kris Benson?)?

Depends on Colletti's attitude towards Drew's contract. Does he consider it an albatross, or does he see 3-4 more productive years of Drew?

2005-12-23 08:50:48
289.   27indigo

Although the Furcal signing suggests to me maybe they're not so hung up on "character" as they've claimed, I still wonder if they'd take on a guy like Manny. Not that I'd mind, I just can't see them doing it.

And I don't know how Drew's contract could be an albatross in Colletti's eyes. He signed Furcal to $2 million more per year than Drew's signed to. Assuming Drew stays healthy (big assumption, of course) and productive, he's signed pretty well below market value.

2005-12-23 08:59:17
290.   blue22
289 - I meant for Manny to go to the Mets. Mets get Manny, Boston gets Drew, LA gets prospects/short term veterans.

And Drew is on a 4/$44M remaining contract, that Colletti didn't sign. Furcal's contract was the longest passed out by Colletti this offseason. Obviously Drew's health is a major warning sign, and I could certainly see Colletti not being overly optimistic about the duration of the deal.

2005-12-23 09:00:19
291.   kinbote
best case scenario: drew has a big season and opts out of the remaining three years on his contract.

i don't think trading drew is a good idea with his value at a relatively low point. i realize that our season probably depends on his staying healthy and productive, but that's just the way it is.

if little's smart, he gives him plenty of days off, pulls him late in one-sided games, and basically coddles him like a position-playing dreifort . . .

2005-12-23 09:26:36
292.   underdog
Trading Drew is absurd at this point. Trading Drew in something involving Clement or (God forbid) Wells is even more insane. Sounds like one of those irresponsible rumors those web sites occasionally spew out. (I hope!)

I still hope we're about done at this point. We have too many players in the farm, pitchers especially, who could potentially help at some point in 06 to make it harder and harder for them to have room.

2005-12-23 09:42:32
293.   Midwest Blue
291/292 - Yes, I agree. Except I don't think that we're done yet. A trade for one more pitcher could still help tremendously and if Sanders doesn't end up in KC, I think he would still be an option in LF.
2005-12-23 09:48:08
294.   willhite
293 -

I don't see Ned doing anything else in the outfield unless it's something of epic proportion (Abreu, Dunn, etc.). I do think he will bring aboard at least one more pitcher and I wouldn't be surprised if he gave up a decent prospect or two to get someone special (I don't think Garland is special).

I wonder what it would take to pry Oliver Perez away from the Pirates. Maybe he uses strange arm angles and JT won't even want him on the team.

2005-12-23 09:48:14
295.   blue22
Sanders is gone:

I'm not really interested in another pitcher since I'm looking for Edwin to take control of the 5-slot. If he can't hang there for long, LA still has Houlton and Billingsley. Between those 3, someone should be able to click.

As for Drew, Colletti didn't sign him and maybe feels that he's not reliable enough to have such a long-term commitment. If he can find a good return for him, I wouldn't put it past Ned to trade him. The domino effect that could have, however, would start with Kent.

2005-12-23 10:03:56
296.   Midwest Blue
I'm glad we didn't pay $5 mill for Sanders, not on top of what we already have done and considering acquiring a pitcher is more important right now.
2005-12-23 10:07:11
297.   blue22
296 - You think that Wells or Clement at ~$9M each is what LA needs right now? This would push Tomko to the 5-slot, and remove any opportunity for one of the kids to win a job in ST.
2005-12-23 10:22:54
298.   Blu2
Makes a lot more sense to me to trade Kent: We can cover that position easily and getting a real power hitting outfielder for him should set us up pretty well.
2005-12-23 10:28:19
299.   willhite
298 -

What "real power hitting outfielder" do you see us getting for Kent, considering his contract is up at the end of the year.

2005-12-23 10:32:31
300.   blue22
299 - I don't see a 2B on Texas' roster. Maybe Brad Wilkerson? Does he count?

I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets gave up Milledge for Kent. He'd fit nicely in NY's lineup.

Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2005-12-23 10:36:30
301.   willhite
300 -

I can see that you subscribe to Ned's "speed and defense" strategy. If you trade Kent for Milledge that leaves you with someone like Aybar at second and very little power in the lineup.

Milledge isn't even close to being ready and I really doubt that Omar would give him up for Kent anyway.

2005-12-23 10:40:30
302.   regfairfield
300 Texas has some stud prospect at second base.
2005-12-23 10:44:11
303.   HomeDePo
I really hate to do this stuff, but here goes:

I think I gave a good post at my blog,, and you should check it out. It is all Bill James' Projected Stats of the Dodgers' Current Team.

I am not promoting my blog, I am promoting something you guys could all enjoy talking about.

P.S. The format is weird, because I could not figure out how to make a table. If you try you can definitely decipher it.

THanks and Merry Christmas/Hannuka

2005-12-23 10:45:32
304.   regfairfield
303 To make a table in blogspot, simply do your work in Excel, and copy-paste it in. It's very cool.
2005-12-23 10:46:05
305.   underdog
This is a little off subject, but did anyone notice that the San Jose Earthquakes soccer team (the closest thing I have to a local team) is moving to Houston? Whether or not you're into soccer, the dumbest thing about this is the news in that report that they'll be keeping the nickname.

So... the Houston Earthquakes.

Which makes as much sense as the Utah Jazz. (And, for that matter, the LA Lakers, but at least that one has always had a nice alliterative ring to it).

San Jose may get another franchise soon enough if they can figure out how to get a new stadium somewhere, but then what would they call themselves? The Astros? And then trade names?

2005-12-23 10:49:56
306.   Robert Daeley
305 Actually I think that MLS has reserved the Quakes name and colors for a future expansion team back in NorCal.

2005-12-23 10:59:29
307.   blue22
301 - Just idle chit chat. I don't want the Dodgers to do anything more to the roster. IMO, we have enough starters, and the lineup appears set.

The conversation stemmed from unsourced speculation that Drew might be used as tradebait going to Boston. I haven't heard Ned speak about Drew this offseason at all, so it's hard to formulate an opinion on what his perception of Drew is, regarding his contract, opt-out status, and long-term health.

Colletti obviously is favoring short-term deals in order to make room for the kids in '07, while staying competitive until that point. Drew is the player under the longest contract commitment, and was not someone that Ned brought in. I think Ned would prefer that Drew opt-out after this year, but that's just my opinion.

2005-12-23 10:59:42
308.   oldbear
Is the Dodgers signing Brett Tomko, any similar to the Mets trading for Kaz Ishii?

I've a problem with acquiring known quantities of bad pitching.

2005-12-23 11:10:16
309.   MartinBillingsley31
Tomko is a bad signing and so is lofton.

There is just not enough power in our lineup, and tomko is mediocre, billingsley would outperform tomko if given a spot in the rotation.

Anyways what does boston want in return for wells, anyone know?

2005-12-23 11:12:49
310.   underdog
306 Ah, great, thanks! The article I read earlier this week in the SF Chronicle implied that the Houston team would keep the name, et al, but now it sounds like that won't happen: "The Earthquakes name, colors and competition records have been retained by MLS for this future expansion team." Whew! Score one for logic.

Now if only the Utah Jazz and the New Orleans/OKC Hornets would swap nicknames...

2005-12-23 11:12:49
311.   blue22
Nice article about Andre Ethier at, though it's more about what a swell, charitable guy he is than his performance in the AFL.

2005-12-23 11:15:27
312.   oldbear
Agree. If were not going to get a top shelf guy like Millwood, Burnett etc....Save the money, trade for a corner OF'er, and let the top end pitching prospects have the 4/5 spots in the rotation.

I'd rather have Bills/Orenduff in the 4/5.
Its beyond pointless to sign Tomko/ScrapHeapVet...

Always go with the player that might NOT SUCK, as opposed to the player that you already know sucks.

2005-12-23 11:25:07
313.   Midwest Blue
309/312 - I've heard as much of a defense of Tomko on this site as I have criticism. I don't think it's definitive that he will suck. While it would be nice to get a big-hitting outfielder, I don't think that's going to happen anymore. I think you naysayers out there should give this line-up a chance. It looks better than last year's opening line-up.
2005-12-23 11:29:33
314.   blue22
Tomko will give you 200 league average innings, perfect for a 4th starter. The 5th spot is where we should allow the kids to compete, not bring in another retread.
2005-12-23 11:29:39
315.   still bevens
305 Supposedly theyre going to have a contest where Houstonians get to name the new team. They should change the name. People in Houston are deathly afraid of earthquakes for some reason. They handful of people I've told I'm from California almost immediately start talking about earthquakes and why I don't live my life in perpetual fear of them. Its pretty funny actually.
2005-12-23 11:33:45
316.   regfairfield
314 I think we'd be hugely fortunate to get league average innings from Tomko. Once he leaves SBC, his home run rate will skyrocket.
2005-12-23 11:38:51
317.   Linkmeister
303 304 I don't know if this works in blogspot, but it works like a charm for basic webpages:

It's a nifty little tool that converts Excel to HTML without adding all the extraneous gibberish that Microsoft's "save as web page" option does.

2005-12-23 11:40:39
318.   Linkmeister
Oh, and Charles Kuffner (a great Texas/Houston blog) is all over the soccer move to his city. Look for the Other Sports category.

2005-12-23 11:41:26
319.   blue22
316 - His HR total should jump from 19 and 20 in his 2 years in SF, to around 28 at Dodger Stadium. What impact that might have to his overall performance, I don't know.
2005-12-23 11:41:45
320.   MartinBillingsley31
""""Tomko will give you 200 league average innings, perfect for a 4th starter. The 5th spot is where we should allow the kids to compete, not bring in another retread."""""

No offense but comments like this is like saying "lets just be a mediocre team".

Since when is it ok to have a mediocre 4th starter and expect to compete.

Also weren't we almost the worst pitching staff in the league last season? (yes gagne was injured and penny and perez were out for a little while but still).

2005-12-23 11:43:30
321.   underdog
314 I'm not crazy about Tomko either, but why do you think his home run rate will be worse at Dodger Stadium than at SBC? Isn't DS one of the harder places to hit home runs out of? (Especially at night?) But I'd worry about him on the road, yeah...
2005-12-23 11:45:17
322.   Blu2
I started the offseason wanting them to sign Nomar for third base, but they signed Mueller... Then they signed Nomar, displacing a good platoon of offense at first base. Then Lofton which doesn't give us any power at all. If they had signed Nomar for third and Burnitz for the outfield we'd be better off. Less money, more power, and Drew, Cruz, Burnitz, and Werth gives us four outfielders who are adequate at all three positions. Add one more outfielder and we're done except for pitching. It could have been...
2005-12-23 11:46:24
323.   blue22
320 - I'm not sure what you expect out of your 4th starter. The whole rotation isn't league average.
2005-12-23 11:46:49
324.   Marty
315 That's funny. I have a friend who recently moved out here from Houston. She's really nervous about experiencing her first earthquake.
2005-12-23 11:47:28
325.   blue22
321 - DS is tough, but SBC is ridiculous (about 30% harder than DS, which is in the top-10 hardest places to hit one out).
2005-12-23 11:49:16
326.   overkill94
309 I find it pretty funny that you bag on Tomko for sucking throughout your entire post and then seem intrigued by Wells at the end, who would cost us prospects unlike Tomko.

Wells on the road in 2005: 5.56 ERA / 1.49 WHIP
Tomko on the road in 2005: 5.26 ERA / 1.46 WHIP

They both pitched much better at home, but since their old home would not be their new home, road stats are all we've got.

I'm not thrilled with Tomko, but he's going to be a necessary mainstay in the rotation kind of like Lowe was last year. With Odalis, the 5 spot, and Penny (kinda) being question marks it's nice to have two spots in the rotation where you know you have someone who will be durable and not totally suck.

2005-12-23 11:50:10
327.   Blu2
324.. Don't take this the wrong way, I'm not trying to offend anyone, but tell her (joke) she hasn't lived till she's experienced sex during an earthquake...
2005-12-23 11:53:48
328.   blue22
319 - Actually, he gave up 8 of his 20 homers at home, so if you increase that by 50% to 12, his total only goes to 24. That doesn't seem like a lot, though he does walk some guys.

I'd like to see him revert back to his 2 years before SF, where he was much more of a groundball pitcher. The last two years he's been a flyball pitcher (as was Jeff Weaver, who didn't put as many guys on as Tomko does, but gives up more homers).

2005-12-23 11:59:09
329.   MartinBillingsley31
I'm not intrigued by wells, i was asking what boston wanted for wells because i didn't know what they wanted.

Have you read anywhere that boston wants prospects for wells?

Anyways it seems like the trading market has gotten out of control, other teams wanting way too much for a 1 year rental.

Prospects for wells is a joke.

2005-12-23 12:04:04
330.   blue22
329 - Rotoworld has either Broxton or Drew going for Wells. :-D

2005-12-23 12:05:36
331.   MartinBillingsley31

My god, the trading market is out of control.

Thanks for the info tho.

2005-12-23 12:14:06
332.   willhite
330 -

EITHER Broxton or Drew? Why not give them both and throw in Kent and Lowe for good measure.

2005-12-23 12:20:46
333.   Midwest Blue
We are talking about 42 year-old David Wells, right? The only reason to send Drew would be the whole too-long-a-contract-and-not-Ned's-signing theory. Otherwise, it makes no sense. Why create another hole in your outfield and lessen what little power we have?

I might be okay with Broxton, but I'd rather it be a different pitching prospect.

2005-12-23 12:25:13
334.   Marty
Encarnacion and Junior Spivey to the Cards. Juan gets 3 years 15 million. Good luck St. Louie!
2005-12-23 12:31:36
335.   regfairfield
330 I think this goes firmly into the "newspaper makes something up" category. I may not really like Colletti, but so far he's proved he's not that stupid.
2005-12-23 12:31:48
336.   Suffering Bruin
Juan Encarnacion is going to be making $5 million dollars a year for three straight years?

I have sent my son outside with a bat and a ball with strict instuctions to not come back in the house until the sun sets.

2005-12-23 12:38:41
337.   Steve
Wells! come on...

I just got an e-mail from a friend who is a Cardinals fan. It says, and I quote....

"Just kill me now."

Any idea what he could be talking about? :)

Then, to make the irony even more thick and rich, I just dutifully read my Hardball Times profile of Walt Jocketty, which assured us that he always buys low, never falling for the Derek Bell syndrome.

2005-12-23 12:39:04
338.   blue22
336 - Make sure you teach him how to hit well with RISP (Encarnacion hit .332 with runners on last year, vs. .240 w/ nobody on - I'm sure that'll hold).
2005-12-23 12:44:56
339.   Vishal
[337] well it certainly seems he was buying high when he signed encarnacion... high on what, i have no idea. crack? meth?
2005-12-23 12:53:24
340.   Midwest Blue
Vish - LOL!
2005-12-23 13:17:45
341.   trainwreck
If we trade Drew we should not have bothered to sign all these stop gap players, because we are not going to be good next year without our best hitter. Should have just traded everyone away if we are going to get rid of Drew. How is Drew for Wells a fair trade?
2005-12-23 13:21:01
342.   trainwreck
Honestly if Drew is traded for Wells (this is all speculative) get ready for the trade deadline because we will be dumping some players. Hopefully we could get half the quality of what the Marlins got.
2005-12-23 13:30:07
343.   Izzy
Trading Drew makes no sense, as we have no high level OF prospects right now. Unless we are definitely going to have some kids change positions, we actually need a long term of contract out there, as I see it. And for those who are projecting that Tomko's home run total is going to go up in DS, that seems to contradict his DS E.R.A., which is a measly 2.83 lifetime. Course, that is not a fool proof stat, and no stat is, but it is a possible indicator of good things to come. I don't think anyone is saying that Tomko is great, but for a 4 or 5 starter he's not that bad, with the possiblity he will be better than that.

*and how do you get the bold fonts? I can't find that on here. thx

2005-12-23 13:32:25
344.   Vishal
i wouldn't trade drew for every single wells out there. david, kip, vernon, AND bonzi.
2005-12-23 13:32:51
345.   oldbear
Juan Encarnacion is like a crappier, less powerful version of Reggie Sanders.

Drew for David Wells....

Hmmm....Our best position player for a 5th starter we dont need.

Mr. Ned please stop.

2005-12-23 13:33:25
346.   willhite
I get a kick out of the howling that takes place when the Marlins systematically dismantle their team. They've now done it twice in the last 10 years and everyone, especially their own fans, seems to take offense to this.

Question: Other than the Yanks, which team has won the most World Series titles in the past 10 years? Answer: The Florida Marlins.

It took them 6 years to win another one after they "destroyed" their team the first time. With the quality of prospects they got this year, it might not even take that long this time.

2005-12-23 13:36:23
347.   Marty
343 If you had just ended that last sentence with an * it would have been bold.

whatever is between two * is bold

2005-12-23 13:37:12
348.   oldbear
The Marlins have fans?
2005-12-23 13:37:47
349.   willhite
345 -

Some might argue that Wells would be our #4 starter and Tomko #5. Should we now tell Ned's its OK to make the deal. :)

2005-12-23 13:45:46
350.   Midwest Blue
C'mon, let's give Neddy some credit. I don't think this Drew rumor has any credence nor do I think Ned is the instigator. We have some kids and some prospects that we're willing to use as trade bait (plus Izzy, Choi and ODP), but Drew and Kent are not in the equation (to the everlasting consternation of a select few).

I'm fine with going to battle with what we have. A trade that doesn't open holes or a 1, 2, or 3 pitcher would be great, but not imperative.

Show/Hide Comments 351-400
2005-12-23 13:46:01
351.   dzzrtRatt

Sorry to be such a nag, but the Rotoworld item provides not one fact to support the idea of Drew being traded for Wells, or being traded at all. Click on the link to the Boston newspaper and it has Wells possibly being traded to the Dodgers for "bullpen help." Many other players on many other teams are mentioned, except not J.D. Drew. So that Rotoworld guy, who has less than zero credibility, was just sucking his thumb and thought he heard a mouse.

It's not my place to say "don't even post stuff like that." But don't even post stuff like that.

2005-12-23 13:47:08
352.   dzzrtRatt
346 Look for it next year. Michael Lewis' book on the genius of the Florida Marlins.
2005-12-23 13:47:23
353.   Midwest Blue
"for a 1, 2, or 3"
2005-12-23 14:25:13
354.   Xeifrank
If the D-Backs trade Glaus to the Blue Jays for Hudson and Batista as rumored, who is rostered to be the new 3B for the D-Backs?
vr, Xei
2005-12-23 14:30:06
355.   slackfarmer
So far the main thing that Ned has going for him is that he hasn't done anything really stupid. So I can't buy rumors of a really stupid Drew trade.

347 Thanks for the how-to on bolding. So can you tell me how to underline and italic?

2005-12-23 14:32:40
356.   Marty
it's close to wiki formatting. I'm not sure about italic but underline is an underscore on either side.
2005-12-23 14:36:46
357.   slackfarmer
356 thanks
2005-12-23 14:39:58
358.   Marty
y o u r w e l c o m e
2005-12-23 14:41:10
359.   Marty
oops, make that:

y o u ' r e w e l c o m e

2005-12-23 14:51:33
360.   Strike4
In today's Bronx Banter, Alex writes about the early days of free agency. It's a good read, focused mostly on Messersmith and Marshall.
2005-12-23 14:57:12
361.   molokai
Chad Tracy. After watching Glaus play 3b last year his defense won't seem as reprehensible.
2005-12-23 15:38:09
362.   TheMan
Atleast two more DodgerThoughts tech questions:

How do you do links???

What is the deal with tinyurl???

2005-12-23 15:56:32
363.   Marty
link to a comment number by putting brackets around it.

Also, if you use Firefox, there is a cool extension that will automatically make a url in a comment linked. is a nice way to shrink down a really long url. Just got to and paste the long url in the field and click "make tiny url". You'll get the smaller url returned that works just like the long one.

2005-12-23 16:10:26
364.   Linkmeister
Also, you can drag and drop the tinyURL function to your toolbar, thus eliminating having to go to the tinyURL site itself.

As to links, html is not enabled within the comments, or hasn't been. If you're using FF you can look for the "linkification" extension, install that, and links (like tinyurl) will automatically perform as hyperlinks.

2005-12-23 16:28:59
365.   KLV
Kevin Kennedy wrote this about Izturis on Foxsports:

True, the Dodgers had a fine-fielding shortstop in Cesar Izturis, but he's out after elbow surgery and was supposedly not due back until the All-Star break. The plan was to then install Izturis at second and move Jeff Kent to first. Even if that happened, the acquisition of Furcal is still a good move. But my sources tell me that there is a possibility that Izturis could miss the entire 2006 season, that there were some congenital problems with his elbow that will take even longer to heal.

Anyone heard this before?

2005-12-23 16:39:20
366.   natepurcell
is batista going to be in the rotation or bullpen for arizona?

arizonas rotation....
el duque
russ ortiz

boy.... thats uhh... kind of crappy.

2005-12-23 17:00:46
367.   natepurcell
if i were them, i would put el duque in the bullpen and plug nippert in the 5 spot full time.

i am really high on nippert, hes going to be a good.

2005-12-23 17:24:23
368.   trainwreck
I still can not believe they took back el duque in that trade.
2005-12-23 17:41:15
369.   molokai
Nippert will force his way onto that rotation. Toronto scout told me that Nippert was the best minor league pitcher he scouted all last year. Of course it is all about timing. He saw him pitch his best game of the year and that was the only game he saw him pitch. If he'd seen Edwin Jackson pitch that gem that Depo caught I'm sure he'd said that E Jackson was the best minor league pitcher he saw all last year.

Arizona pitching is crappy but they have so much hitting once Drew/Quentin/Jackson start making an impact they are the team that scares me in the future. I don't even want to think about Upton cause I get nervous when people say Ken Griffy talent.

2005-12-23 17:47:39
370.   molokai
Brandon Webb is going to love having Hudson in back of him. I like this trade for both teams. The Blue Jays get the big bat they need at 3b and they can role Aaron Hill over to 2nd where he'll probably outhit Hudson. This is finally the move that can help Toronta make a run at the elite East. They were in dire need of a big bopper. Course they still have to many corner guys in Koskie/Hillenbrand/Hinske. Maybe Koskie stays at 3b and Glaus DH's but he won't be happy about that. Still need to move to of those guys.

Arizona saves a ton of money and opens up a place for Chad Tracy, Hudson moves into 2nd and Counsel and take over SS until Drew is ready. Batista had some nice years in Arizona and he could be a servicable number 4/5 pitcher or be a setup man for Valverde who quietly was one of the best closers in Aug/Sept in baseball.

2005-12-23 18:12:18
371.   KLV

Agreed, I worry a lot about the D'Backs over the next 5-7 years. That lineup is going to be stacked (Drew, Quentin, Jackson, Tracy, Upton) and inexpensive. O-Dog and his glove will be a nice complement.

2005-12-23 18:25:13
372.   bigcpa
The scariest name with the D'Backs is Josh Byrnes. A year ago it seemed like DePo was the only GM in the West with a long-range view. Still I think AZ is a 75 win team next year minus Vazquez and Glaus.
2005-12-23 19:21:01
373.   slackfarmer
"The scariest name with the D'Backs is Josh Byrnes."

Give him two years to do the heavy lifting of building the farm, shedding fat contracts, etc. Then he'll get dumped so some old school GM can take the credit.

2005-12-23 20:11:45
374.   norcalblue
Joe Mays Signs $1 million-1-year Deal With Royals. This will be one of the better FA signings..along with whoever gets Tony Armas Jr.
2005-12-23 20:43:25
375.   Izzy
365. The congenital thing on Izzy was on the Dodger page a few weeks back, in a statement by Coletti, if I am not mistaken. So, I guess that would make it a fact and not just a rumor. His ligaments or something have a hard time attaching to the bone I think. The feeling I get is that anything could happen with his arm, and I wouldn't count on building an infield around him any time soon.
2005-12-23 21:10:22
376.   Izzy
One poster on the Dodger board was suggesting a Scott Boras Pinata night at Dodger Stadium. lol-sorry. I thought it was funny.
2005-12-23 21:46:59
377.   TheMan
*testing linkification*

2005-12-23 21:47:42
378.   TheMan
2005-12-23 21:48:07
379.   TheMan
it works on the preview...

oh well...

2005-12-23 21:49:42
380.   TheMan
2005-12-23 21:49:52
381.   TheMan
oh well!
2005-12-23 22:48:47
382.   Linkmeister
379 Reboot your machine. I noticed that it took a couple of boots (maybe even a day) before linkification took effect. Your links work just fine for me.
2005-12-24 03:11:02
383.   Ken Arneson
You can't link to other sites, at the moment. (It's in the works, though...) Right now, you can only link to other comments, by bracketing the comment number.
2005-12-24 08:48:25
384.   deburns
351 Rotowire (as opposed to Rotoworld) this AM says Boston has "stepped up" its desire to trade Wells to LA, and that they are interested in several LA prospects. I assume that means "from among" LA prospects. That is, of course, if this is not just hot air. If the price is not from the top five or so prospects, I think Wells would fit nicely in the middle of the rotation, putting Tomko where he belongs (at the fifth spot), where he will be pitching against other teams' fifth starters, arguable less capable than he.
2005-12-24 09:07:32
385.   slackfarmer
384 Rotoworld says they want E. Jackson. They don't claim any source, so it's probably a made up rumor. I wouldn't do this deal. Not only does Edwin have more upside left, but I bet he pitches better next year than Wells, and at a fraction the cost.
2005-12-24 09:08:12
386.   deburns
ESPN Insider quotes the Boston Globe to the same general effect: The Sox are looking for one of the young arms (Jackson, Bills, etc.) or Brazoban/Sanchez, or possibly other prospects to wheel to Tampa Bay for Lugo.
2005-12-24 09:09:25
387.   MikeB
363 & 364 Shazzam! Thanks for the tip on Linkification. Are there any other FF extensions you guys can recommend?

Year in Review, The American Enterprise Online - Washington,DC,USA. ... POT, MEET KETTLE AWARD: To the Los Angeles Times's Bill Plaschke, for his relentless attacks on former Dodgers general manager Paul DePodesta

2005-12-24 09:44:59
388.   dzzrtRatt
The Boston Globe article makes it sound like if Ned hangs tough, the Dodgers could get Wells for a very mid-level type of prospect. Sox: Wells as Dodgers: Bradley.
2005-12-24 09:48:24
389.   molokai
Quote from Giradi the new manager of the Marlins.
"A lot of times, [left-handed hitters] don't get an opportunity at the big-league level," Girardi told reporters at the Winter Meetings earlier this month. "They do it all through the Minor Leagues, and then all of a sudden, you start platooning him because he's in the big-league level, and everyone wants to win that game. I don't believe in putting limitations on anyone. [Jacobs] is going to get a chance. I want to give him a chance to play against everyone, because if he shows that he can play against everyone, what a treat."
2005-12-24 09:49:22
390.   TheMan

Mozilla Extensions:

Get one about the Advanced Search Bar (its called the All-In-One Sidebar and it is modeled after the sidebar on the Opera search engine)... it is pretty sweet. You can search Ask Jeeves, Wikipedia, Google, Yahoo!, and more at the exact same time to mazimize your results!!!

For fun I got this thing called Back IS Close. It is basically when you first open FF and you have no history for that moment, the back button on your toolbar turns into a close button. It is completely unnecesary, though.

By the way if you are tired of FF try Opera, it is going to be better once they get some more developers.

2005-12-24 09:56:47
391.   Thomas Naccarato
I'm still thanking Rob McMillan to this day for convincing me to use Firefox. Outstanding broswer that does have a glitch every once in a while, but for the most part has so many neat bells and whistles that I avoid Internet Explorer like the plague.
2005-12-24 10:09:42
392.   dzzrtRatt
Half on- half off-topic: This sour-grapes takedown of Steinbrenner by a Boston writer.

2005-12-24 10:11:46
393.   MartinBillingsley31
The Boston Globe article makes it sound like if Ned hangs tough, the Dodgers could get Wells for a very mid-level type of prospect.

Do you have a link for that

2005-12-24 10:20:38
394.   deburns
393 You can go to, sports, and you will see the article under Red Sox.
2005-12-24 10:28:54
395.   Vishal
i don't want wells. at all. ugh. definitely not for anyone who could possibly be considered a "prospect".

[389] that quote was like a fresh breeze.

2005-12-24 11:59:48
396.   TheMan
Excuse me, I have a question:

What does the stat 'BR/9' mean? It is a pitcher's stat...

2005-12-24 12:17:18
397.   bigcpa
396 That's Baserunners per 9.

And count me as preferring 30 starts from Houlton/Jackson to a 43-yr-old Wells.

2005-12-24 12:25:53
398.   HomeDePo
Realizing what a great arguement topic it was, I tackled the Boomer situation over at my blog,, and I think you guys could enjoy reading it.

I included the Bill James Handbook projection for David Wells in the post, so I know a lot of you might want to see that.

2005-12-24 13:33:56
399.   deburns
398 Home Depo, congratulations on your site; you Home in on what stirs the pot on DT, and very helpfully.
2005-12-24 13:38:23
400.   HomeDePo

Thanks so much for the compliment, it means a lot to somebody who is just starting up a blog to even be mentioned in the same sentence as Dodger Thoughts (or DT!).

Show/Hide Comments 401-450
2005-12-24 13:43:39
401.   trainwreck
I understand where you are coming from with the Wells trade HomeDepo, but I care more for long term than next season so I rather hang onto Jackson then trade for Wells. If we could give a lesser prospect I would be happy to do it.
2005-12-24 13:44:31
402.   trainwreck
Where do people go to check park factors and whether a park is neutral or hitter or pitcher friendly?
2005-12-24 13:50:12
403.   HomeDePo
That was the biggest problem with the prospect of the deal. Do we trade 5 quality years for 2? It all depends on how anxious you are to win, and how long you care about winning.

I just use my Bill James Statbook. It can be really hard to tell which parks are which. It is kind of strange, I am still not sure the reason that some ballparks are hitter parks and some are pitcher parks.

2005-12-24 13:50:38
404.   Andrew Shimmin
387- Great FF extensions:

Undoclosetab- adds an option to your context menu to re-open an accidentally closed tab.

Session Saver- Can re-open all tabs open when the browser window was last closed. Great if you accidentally close a window when you meant to just kill a tab.

Context Search- adds an option to your context menu to search, in a new tab, any blocked word of phrase using any of the search engines in your search bar (so you don't have to copy and paste it in to the bar).

I use the first and the third every day. The second only rarely, but when I need it, I'm really glad to have it.

2005-12-24 13:52:30
405.   HomeDePo
The one thing a lot of people do is just listen to what they hear, and you do not want to do that. I hate how on ESPN, all that they do is talk about Coors field, but in reality the air does not make that huge of a difference.
2005-12-24 14:00:10
406.   deburns
If the Wells chatter is anything more than just that, a hypothetical Wells/Jackson trade presents an interesting issue: Wells has been a good pitcher, in spite of his age; Jackson used to be considered a top prospect, but has had troubles even at AA. He could turn into something special, but has not really demonstrated much in the past two years. Given all the pitching prospects in the system, would it be so terrible to spend one questionable (possibly very good) prospect, for a pitcher who could make us a clear favorite in the NL West, and a good leg up in a hypothetical playoff scenario? I'm not saying "do it" (if it is even in the cards), but rather I don't think it's an open and shut case either way.
2005-12-24 14:13:43
407.   popup
Why do the Red Sox want to get rid of Wells? 43 years old and a bad back sound like at most a non roster invitation to spring training, if that, to me. I would look elsewhere for another starter.

Stan from Tacoma

2005-12-24 14:16:05
408.   Brendan
I don't think you have to give up a jackson to get a wells. Boston needs to move him especially if they sign millwood. Wells will only got to a west coast team. That does not equate to giving up a top prospect and not a top pitching prospect. dodgers don't have to do a deal, Boston might have to if Wells forces the issue.
2005-12-24 14:17:46
409.   scareduck
363 - also, there is a TinyURL Creator extension that allows you to create a TinyURL from the current URL. Very handy.

My favorite Firefox extensions:

AdBlock Plus -- not only does this let you block ads, it keeps track of updates to lists of sites you probably don't want to see stuff from (i.e.,, etc.), and you can override as well.

BugMeNot -- integrated BugMeNot, so you can right-click and get a password rather than having to open a new tab/browser window.

Tabbrowser Preferences -- Netscape-style preferences that were removed from Firefox, restored once again.

Google Pagerank Status -- what's the Page Rank for your current page? If you don't want to use the whole Google Toolbar shebang (and until a year ago or so, you couldn't, as it was IE-only), this lets you see the Page Rank for the current page.

User Agent Switcher -- fool UserAgent readers into thinking your browser is MSIE.

TinyURL Creator -- create tiny URLs without breaking out a new tab/browser window.

Open Link In -- Adds "Open Link Here" as an option for obnoxious websites that insist on creating a new browser window/tab.

Linkification -- convert textual links on web pages to clickable links.

2005-12-24 14:17:53
410.   trainwreck
Yeah I am a person that cares more about the long term then this next season.
2005-12-24 14:51:18
411.   natepurcell
jackson for wells would be utterly stupid.

jacksons going to be a good pitcher everyone. just be patient. i promise, it will pay off.

2005-12-24 15:13:18
412.   slackfarmer
402. 403 & 405 I think the park factors in the Bill James book are better than those on James excludes interleague games (cause the unbalaned use of DH would skew NL parks to look more pitcher friendly) and I doubt ESPN does. Also James provides stats on the handedness of parks, which is very useful.

We all have heard that Dodger Stadium is pitcher friendly. It is also fairly balanced for lefties and righties -- you'd guess as much by its symetrical layout. On the other hand, everyone knows that Fenway is a hitter's park, but it is actually only a little friendly for lefties and majorly beneficial for righties.

2005-12-24 15:17:37
413.   slackfarmer
HomeDepo -- your blog is cool. As I just commented on your posting regarding James projectins for the Dodgers, keep in mind that these projections are for the batters in their prior home parks. For players with the Dodgers last year, they will be fine. But Mueller and Lofton's numbers will be reduced a lot coming to Dodger Stadium and Furcal and Nomar's somewhat.

Also, the Zips projections are much lower than James for the players Ned assembled. I'm working on a table which I will post shortly over on the Blue Think Tank.

2005-12-24 15:21:27
414.   Borchard504
What am I gonna do with my Home Depo t-shirt?
2005-12-24 15:55:17
415.   molokai
From Baseball HQ on Nomar:
Garciaparra gets another new home and position…After a disappointing year (and a position change) in Chicago, Nomar Garciaparra (INF, LA) signed an incentive-laden one-year deal with the Dodgers. Things haven't gone so well for Garciaparra on the field lately. He has been unable to get through either of the last two seasons intact, leading the Cubs (and all of his suitors this off-season) to deem his shortstop days over. The past two years have clearly been throwaway seasons from a production standpoint, but his skills set didn't falter until last season:
AB BA bb% ct% Eye h% PX
=== ==== === === ==== === ===
2002 635 .310 6% 90% 0.65 32% 128
2003 658 .301 6% 91% 0.64 30% 119
2004 326 .316 7% 91% 0.83 33% 124
2005 230 .283 5% 90% 0.50 28% 99

The normally consistent Garciaparra saw his outward numbers drop significantly in 2004, and his BPI's follow in 2005. But looking at his second half, after he returned from his torn groin injury, things don't seem so bad.
AB BA bb% ct% Eye h% PX
=== ==== === === ==== === ===
1H 51 .157 7% 82% 0.44 19% 17
2H 179 .318 4% 92% 0.53 31% 119

His BA perked up when his H% returned to a more normal level, and his power came back as well. When healthy, you can expect Garciaparra to put up helpful numbers. But can you expect him to stay healthy? The Dodgers appear set to stick him at first base all year, which may help that cause somewhat. Dodger Stadium isn't as kind to right-handed power hitters as either Fenway or Wrigley

2005-12-24 15:57:13
416.   molokai
Baseball HQ on Lofton:
As it currently stands, Lofton figures to get a good chunk of playing time in centerfield for Los Angeles. Lofton experienced a bit of a rebirth last season in Philadelphia, logging the second highest BA of his career and more than tripling his SB total from the previous year. This came after a season with the Yankees that saw him achieve career-lows in nearly every offensive category. Was 2005 a trend-reversing year or a one-time, late-career spike?
AB BA bb% ct% Eye h% SX
=== ==== === === ==== === ===
2003 547 .296 8% 91% 0.90 31% 155
2004 276 .275 10% 90% 1.15 30% 140
2005 367 .335 8% 89% 0.78 37% 149

In actuality, 2004 was probably the outlier as Lofton adjusted to playing in New York, and in a role much more limited than he was accustomed to. Regardless, at age 38, Lofton is certainly on the downside of his career, and we should expect further steady erosion in his skills set. It's unlikely that he'll hit .300 again this year based on the hit rate we saw in 2004. But if Lofton can find 400 AB this season, he could duplicate most of the outward numbers that he put in last year in Philadelphia.

2005-12-24 17:49:01
417.   King of the Hobos
For those that dislike Vegas, an IL ballpark is available, although it's far from convenient, unless you think a flight from Pennsylvania is convenient. The Phillies are leaving Scranton-Wilkes Barre for Allentown. I suppose some re-arranging could get us an IL team near our other minor league teams (Pittsburgh to S/WB, White Sox to Indianapolis, and the Dodgers to Charlotte?), but that may be too hard. The sooner we get out of Vegas, and the PCL, the better for the sake of our pitching prospects

2005-12-24 21:57:57
418.   HomeDePo
trainwreck -

I said that the BEST prospect I would CONSIDER trading is Edwin Jackson, which goes what you said perfectly.

2005-12-24 22:41:43
419.   HomeDePo
slackfarmer, I added you to my links on The SABR-Dodgers.

I found out about your blog just today actually (the link on your comment told me, and I had seen your blog's name before but never actually checked it out), and I will bookmark it and make sure to start reading it regularly!

2005-12-25 03:42:58
420.   oldbear
I wouldnt deal for David Wells. But I would deal Edwin Jackson. EJ hasnt done anything of note the last two years in the minors. He's been pretty much awful. He has no peripheral's the stand out that suggest he might turn into something good.

EJ's career started out promising in 2002/2003 at Rookie/AA. But he got hurt. Has never been the same since.

2004 EJ's was mediocre.
2005 EJ was just downright terrible.

If a player cant get minor league hitters out, he's not going to get MLB hitters out.

2005-12-25 07:33:17
421.   MartinBillingsley31
Here is what I see, there are position players on the team that have no spot on the team that are 3rd on the depth chart at their position (choi aybar), there are minor league prospects that are top prospects because of their defense mainly (hu abreu), and there are bottom of the bullpen depth chart guys that probably won't make the team (osoria schmoll) and there are injured but valuable when healthy guys (izturis werth).
Now there is 1 big hole on the team that I see and that is a power hitting outfielder, the only way I see we can get a power hitting outfielder is to either trade top pitching (billingsley) and position prospects (guzman laroche) or trade a combination of quality major league pitching (perez lowe) and quality position players that are 3rd on the depth chart (choi aybar) at their position and top prospects because of their defense mainly (hu abreu)and bottom of the bullpen depth chart guys that won't make the team (osoria schmoll). In order to trade quality major league pitching we have to have enough of them, that's why I'm in favor of getting wells but only if we can get him for a 3rd on the depth chart position player (choi aybar) and/or a bottom of the bullpen depth chart guy (schmoll osoria). Also if we land a power hitting outfielder werth becomes our 6th outfielder and we only need 5, so he is expendable, altho injured.

I would rather stay away from trading our top prospects (billingsley laroche guzman martin broxton).

We have in our rotation right now penny lowe perez tomko, and in order to get a power hitting outfielder without trading top prospects we will have to trade 1 of them which means we need 2 more starters in our rotation, wells could be 1 of them, then do we give billingsley the final spot or do we sign weaver or millwood, either would work without having to trade anyone.

So if we can get wells and a power hitting outfielder for perez or lowe (perferably perez) and jackson and any combination of the following: choi, aybar, hu, abreu, schmoll, osoria, izturis, werth (and i'd be willing to throw in lower position prospects like young ethier), then I'm all for getting wells and a power hitting outfielder, but if we cannot get the power hitting outfielder and we only get wells, then I say why even bother getting wells, either sign millwood or weaver or give billingsley the final spot in the rotation.

But then what do you do about the guys that don't make the team because there is no room for them and they are out of options like (and I could be wrong) choi aybar werth izturis?

P.S. the reason i say osoria and shmoll won't make the team is because ned has said he wants houlton in the pen as a swingman and he wants 2 lefties and i'm assuming its wunsch and kuo then there are gagne brazo sanchez broxton to round out the bullpen.
And the reason why i say choi and aybar are 3rd on the depth chart at their position is because they have more trade value than seanz and robles, but choi and aybar are actually more valuable to the dodgers than seanz and robles.

And actually if worse comes to worse in my scenario we could end up with a rotation of penny perez tomko wells billingsley, ouch, but with a power hitting outfielder added, that's why i'm in favor of signing either millwood or weaver.

If best comes to best in my scenario we could have a rotation of millwood or weaver penny lowe tomko wells, but with a power hitting outfielder added, that would be fine.

And cruz and lofton platoon in the outfield, with drew and the power hitting outfielder we add.

2005-12-25 08:40:21
422.   deburns
Would that we could get that power-hitting OF without bankrupting the farm of top-tier prospects, but I don't see that happening without a combination of that and opening yet another hole in the rotation.
BTW, the LAT has no room today for any mention of the Dodgers or Angels, but Murray Chass in the NYT has a rather long puff piece about what a great job Colletti is doing. No news in it, tho.
2005-12-25 08:46:19
423.   MartinBillingsley31
Then if ned is just trying to get wells for the final spot in the rotation and thats it, or if he is getting wells to make a trade that includes one of our starting pitchers plus any of our top tier prospects then i say forget about wells and fill the final spot in the rotation with either billingsley or by signing either millwood or weaver and call it a winter.
2005-12-25 08:54:34
424.   MartinBillingsley31
And to tell you the truth, if we don't get a power hitting outfielder we have no chance at making noise in the playoffs, so why bother giving millwood or weaver big dollars for 4 or 5 years, just give billingsley the final spot in the rotation, unless we can steal wells for schmoll straight up for example.
2005-12-25 11:02:05
425.   HomeDePo
BTW, who started the David Wells chatter?

Merry Christmas to All!

2005-12-25 11:39:08
426.   Brendan
And to tell you the truth, if we don't get a power hitting outfielder we have no chance at making noise in the playoffs

While I think your posts are well thought out and make good points I think you are forgetting the 2001 Diamondbacks, 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2005 White Sox. You wouldn't have put $1 on any of these teams starting the playoffs.

if you make it to the playoffs anything can happen. The dodgers should do all they can do to be a winner in 2006 but not at the expense of 2007-2010. If(big if) the dodgers can stay healthy they are the favorites to win the NL West. The rest of the NL isn't that scary especially this year.I wouldn't want to face a healthy Penny, followed by Dlowe in the playoffs

Ned is following the Giants game-plan without giving up the prospects because players are willing to play in LA as free agents. For what Ned had to work with, in the time he had to work in, he has done a credible job.

2005-12-25 11:41:48
427.   Brendan

Wells kind of started the chatter by saying he wanted to be traded to a west coast team. the dodgers had the #4 and 5 spots in the rotation open so it is natural speculation and natural talks between dodgers and Red Sox.

2005-12-25 12:54:29
428.   natepurcell
all you EJ haters will eat your words!!!
2005-12-25 13:16:15
429.   trainwreck
I am with you Nate, I believe in Edwin and I think he can help us this year.

Happy Holidays everyone and have a happy new year.

2005-12-25 15:36:44
430.   Steve Saxs Sweaty Jockstrap
Fellas, I hate to say it, but EJ is just not going to be a major league pitcher. We need to cut our losses now, and hope we can trade him and receive something serviceable in return.

Someone said it earlier. EJ gets his butt lit up by minor leaguers. This does not translate well to the big show.

We need to erase that late September game back in 2003 from our memories.

The guy just doesn't have it.

2005-12-25 15:54:08
431.   Rob M
430 Your confidence is duly noted, but I'm with Nate on this one. EJ is only 22 for god's sake. So many top notch starters take time to harness their stuff and learn to pitch. If he doesn't get it together until he's 24 or 25, that wouldn't be so odd. It wouldn't be great in terms of his service time, but I think he's a pretty good bet to have some degree of big league success.

Has there been any talk about Duaner getting an opportunity to start? I remember he was asking for the chance last year. If he can do it, that would be a nice surprise. He has 4 pitches IIRC and a nice arm. I hate to see good young pitchers ghettoized in the pen early in their career, never to emerge again. I hope Broxton get's a chance to keep starting as well.

2005-12-25 15:57:06
432.   caseybarker
EJ's stats in AA were good at the middle of last year. Vegas blows up pitcher's ERA's. It may be a confidence/make-up problem like they have in Colorado.
2005-12-25 16:22:50
433.   Steve Saxs Sweaty Jockstrap
EJ is done. Stick a fork in him. He's been given more than enough opportunities to turn things around. I don't care if he's only 22. He's lost tons of velocity on his fastball. His other stuff just isn't good enough to make up for this fact.
2005-12-25 16:43:20
434.   PennyJavy
Edwin Jackson's stats while playing for the Suns were pretty good. He pitched in 62 innings and gave up 52 hits, 7 Home Runs, 18 walks, and he struck out 44. His ERA was 3.48 and WHIP was 1.13.
2005-12-25 17:00:28
435.   natepurcell
EJ is done. Stick a fork in him. He's been given more than enough opportunities to turn things around. I don't care if he's only 22.

and that, is the type of thinking that got konerko traded.

anyways, this myth that he has lost a ton of velocity on his fb is well, just a myth. i went back and watched EVERY jackson mlb inning since he was called up in june in 2004. the only games where his fb velocity lingered was in the houston 2004 game, the game after he came out from anaheim with that forearm strain. And in 2005 when he was affected by back spasms (example: @ colorado).

all the other times, he had his stuff, fb sitting 92-94, reaching 96 at times. all the people that just want to drop jackson now have to be the most impatient people on earth.

jon garland
brett myers
erik bedard
roy halladay
john patterson
jeremy bonderman
zach grienke
ben sheets

those are all pitchers off the top of my head that didnt exactly lit the world on fire when they first came into the leagues. BUT, their respective teams have stuck beside them and are now being rewarded for it.

2005-12-25 17:23:44
436.   Steve Saxs Sweaty Jockstrap
I went back and watched EVERY Jackson MLB inning since he was called up in June 2004

435-Did you watch the games he pitched at AA and AAA, those are the games I'm talking about. Not the few spot starts in the big show.

It is a FACT he has lost velocity on his fastball.

2005-12-25 17:47:46
437.   Steve Saxs Sweaty Jockstrap
The A's are not being rewarded for Jeremy Bonderman.
2005-12-25 18:03:56
438.   jpeace
I'm fine for EJ losing velocity, if by doing so, he ups his control.
And how could anyone have judged his fastball accurately by watching minor league games on that tiny streaming videocast? The guy is 22, and his trade value is not so high. We should be patient.
2005-12-25 18:23:54
439.   natepurcell
Did you watch the games he pitched at AA and AAA, those are the games I'm talking about. Not the few spot starts in the big show.

ive watched about 5 of his AA home starts in jacksonville last year. I can remember specifically the game agfainst the reds AA affiliate that the announcer joe block, repeated numerous gun readings during his pitches. "93, 94, 95, 93, etc". and, the jax home gun is well known to be 3mph slow.

The A's are not being rewarded for Jeremy Bonderman.

of course they arent. they foolishly traded him away. and what does that have to do with my point? he came up with the tigers, struggled mightily in is first year and is now starting to get it together. And the tigers are being rewarded by sticking by him through his struggles.

2005-12-25 19:18:12
440.   Break Out
Stats for Edwin Jackson's last two Dodger games this year....

1 Win, 10 1/3 IP, 7 hits, 2 ER, 5 BB's 0 K's,
1.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

2005-12-25 23:33:02
441.   LAT
EJ has a long future ahead of him and hopefully its in a Dodger uniform. The guy has the talent and arm. He has shown he can pitch in the majors, I suspect his problem is mental. Between trying to prove 2004 was not a fluke and live up to his high billing, he is pressing and just needs to relax. We saw a little of what he can do at the end of last year. The Dodgers will be sorry if they let him go.
2005-12-25 23:34:15
442.   alex 7
I follow most Dodgers games online, so I haven't seen Jackson's stuff. I do wonder how a pitcher strikes out zero hitters in 10 innings though. That's all that stood out to me last year.

Again, I didn't watch any of the games, so I don't claim to have an educated opinion on his chances of future success. I'm just wondering if we should consider that a fluke occurance or if his BABIP was fortunately low.

2005-12-26 01:57:56
443.   Eric L
435 Nate, you forgot to add a guy like Greg Maddux to your list. His ERA+ is really similar to Edwin's after his first couple of seasons (granted, Maddux pitched alot more innings at the MLB level in his age 20 and 21 seasons than Jackson).

Maddux was pretty terrible in his first 180 or MLB innings. Jackson has pitched a total of 75 ML innings. I'm not totally trying to compare Maddux and Jackson as similar pitchers (cause they aren't, but Maddux did throw harder when he was younger).

All I guess I am saying is that a guy like a Maddux was allowed to work through his early struggles and the Cubs were rewarded after his first 180 innings that were rather shakey.

2005-12-26 02:35:07
444.   oldbear
435. The difference between Paul Konerko and Edwin Jackson is that Konerko was actually good in the minor leagues. He showed something at all levels that suggested he'd be a good MLB'er.

EJ hasnt done anything. If he had all this great 'stuff', he'd be K'ing a ton of people. But he hasnt been able to do that.

The kid got hurt. It happens. Thats the risk of taking high school pitching.

2005-12-26 02:40:46
445.   oldbear
435. Another point is that I'd suspect most of those pitchers on that list didnt have 8+ERA's at the AAA level, and suspect peripherals in the minor leagues.

Its not a question of 'sticking with EJ'. Its a matter of EJ getting batters out at the minor league level through his talents, so there's actually some thought in which that could translate to the MLB level.

So far, EJ hasnt done that. If some other pitcher had EJ's statlines, no one would even be discussing him.

2005-12-26 02:45:00
446.   oldbear
439. Are we really to believe the Jax gun? This is the same gun that had Broxton at 102 and Kuo pushing 100. Those two guys never came close to those readings in LA.
2005-12-26 08:51:11
447.   HomeDePo
If you guys want to check out some new stats that I just compiled during boredom (actually I am not sure if they are totally new; they might be somebody else's), check out for me!

Enjoy your Holidays!


Tell me if you have seen the stats before, please

2005-12-26 10:33:50
448.   sanchez101
Jackson in AA in 2005 pitched 62 innings with a 3.48 ERA and a nearly 3 to 1 K to walks ratio. Justin Orenduff was a full year older and pitched 66.3 innings with a 4.07 with a slightly worse K to walk ratio. Jackson still has a good record of performance, it just ends at AAA Las Vegas, but he's at the same age as most 2005 college draftees, most of which havent even seen A ball yet. Its worth it to give him a chance.

Greg Maddux at age 21 had a 5.61 ERA and a 1.3 k to walk ratio in the majors. Roy Halladay at age 23 had a 10.64 ERA and a 1 to 1 K to walk ratio in the majors. Kerry Wood in AAA had a era of 4.68, and 52 walks in 57.7 innings. There have been other young pitchers who fell on their faces in AAA or the majors and later had success.

Jackson shouldnt be written off yet. For one, he was healthy last year and entire injury history consists of a strained back and a pulled forearm, both in 2004. There are no garauntees with him, but what young pitcher does? He could still become a quality major league starter. Im not opposed to trading him, (i think it would be wise to trade some of the prospects), but Jackson's value is very low right now and not worth one year of David Wells.

2005-12-26 12:14:22
449.   Linkmeister
Um, a Dodgers blog talking about pitchers who are/were late bloomers, and nobody mentions a guy named Koufax? Six years of up-and-down, followed by six years of brilliance.

(This is not meant to suggest that Jackson will ever be anywhere close, but c'mon!)

2005-12-26 12:26:43
450.   Just One of the LADz
Separate question for everyone. With Dodger minor league pitchers getting a lot of positive press. How highly touted was Orel Hershiser as a minor leaguer? I don't remember his minor league numbers being that great.
Show/Hide Comments 451-500
2005-12-26 12:40:48
451.   Just One of the LADz
OK. Poor sentence structure. Trying to mind two three-years olds and type at same time. What I meant was basically did Orel get as much press back then as the current crop of youngsters do? He was a success in the majors after a pretty average minor league career. K to BB was less than 2 to 1, but closer to 2.5 to 1 in majors.
2005-12-26 12:43:12
452.   oldbear
Justin Orenduff was born May 27, 1983.
Edwin Jackson as born Sept 9th, 1983.

They arent a year apart.

Orenduff can K people.
EJ hasnt shown that he can.

I think thats the big difference between the two. EJ's peripherals are totally underwhelming, which is why I'm not very high on him at all. Orenduff's peripherals are much better.

I wouldnt trade for David Wells either. But I would include Edwin Jackson in just about any trade for someone that would help. I just dont think Wells will.

2005-12-26 13:35:17
453.   Andrew Shimmin
450- Jackson's minor league numbers look marginally better than Hershiser's (ignoring, at my own peril, EJ's stay at Vegas). Jackson is also two years younger than Hershiser was at each stop (the first time around). Hershiser didn't see any MLB time before 24, and wasn't a regular till he was 25. I don't know how highly touted he was (I was three when he debuted).

2005-12-26 13:40:57
454.   Andrew Shimmin
Disclaimer: I'm not arguing that EJ is as good as Bulldog. I'm not arguing that he'll ever be good at all. That's why prospects are fun: nobody really knows how they'll turn out. Declaring a 22yo over-the-hill seems a bit, er, presumptuous.
2005-12-26 13:54:42
455.   oldbear
The more I analyze this Brett Tomko deal, the more it bugs me.

The similarities (in stats/age) between Tomko, Elmer Dessens, and Kaz Ishii are very disturbing.

Dessens/Tomko are pretty much clones.
Ishii has a much higher WHIP, but K's more, gives up a less HR's, and has a lower ERA than Tomko.

In career ERA, Tomko's-4.52, Dessens-4.40, Ishii-4.44

Mr. Ned really wasnt thinking.

2005-12-26 14:21:40
456.   dzzrtRatt
455 However, wasn't Dessens in the same situation as Lima after '04? The Dodgers would've had to offer him arbitration, and so Dessens' salary could've been pushed up the stratosphere. (It seems like a lot of player movements now in the MLB are driven by the arbitration rules.)

Also, Mr. Ned saw Tomko pitch for a couple seasons in a Giant uni. Lord knows, Colletti trusts his own two eyes, as the plethora of ex-Giants on the team shows.

2005-12-26 14:37:52
457.   natepurcell
re 452

oldbear, according to how you measure age in baseball, they are a year apart. 2005 would be orenduff's age 22 year while it would be jacksons age 21 year.

i dont know why you are high on orenduff but incredibly low on jackson. he dominated A+ ball as a 22 yr old pitcher, nothing earth shattering. while jackson skipped A+ ball and basically dominated AA as a 19 year old.

and last year while both were on the same team in AA and thrown around the same # of innings in AA, jackson performed better. he had a better
whip (1.17 to 1.25)
k:bb ratio
IP per start

so basically, jackson out performed orenduff is almost every where while at the same level and according to mlb terms, being a year younger as well. The only thing orenduff did better was striking people out. But the thing is, jackson has shown that he can strike people out at a better rate then orenduff, he just needs to find it again and im confideent he will.

Jackson also has about 5x better stuff then orenduff. better fb, better slider, better change up.

2005-12-26 14:59:56
458.   Izzy
These are some random observations of mine on the Dodgers Las Vegas AAA club.
I am in Clovis, which is right next to Fresno where the Giant's AAA affilitate is. I see alot of the Grizzlies games here, especially when they are playing the 51's. The Giants have made it known that they like the River Cats, which is the Sacramento affilitate of the A's. The Grizzly players complain alot about the heat in the July and August months here, and it is a bit cooler and closer to San Francisco there. Last year, the Giants forced a sort of lengthy negotiation process before signing for 2 more years. Before and during negotiations there was talk of bringing the 51's here. This year, majority ownership in the Grizzlies was purchased by a developer from Boston. I think it also became obvious over the course of the year that Depo was becoming hesitant, as with Edwin, to have his high level pitchers throwing in LV. Guys seemed to be bouncing between Jacksonville and LA. So, taking all these things into account, it could be that the 51's end up here. The problem, as I see it is that Fresno/Clovis is the historic dividing line between Giant's territory and Dodger territory, since the the 2 teams moved here in 1958 (?.) So, there would have to be a shift in that "agreement." The stadium is only a few years old, and is beautiful. I am hoping EJ makes it, for purely selfish motives. Last year my son got a ticket with Navarro's and EJ's autograph on it. I think Navarro is up to stay.
2005-12-26 15:14:26
459.   Blu2
455, 456 Yes but Tomko has the necessary credentials. Ex-Giant!
2005-12-26 15:59:15
460.   Robert Daeley
Looks like the Rangers picked up Millwood, 5 years/$60 million:

2005-12-26 16:10:42
461.   natepurcell
oh my god, 5 yrs 60 mil?!?!?!

i thought jon daniels was suppose to be smart...

2005-12-26 16:14:04
462.   trainwreck
clearly daniels is apparently just a young guy not a smart one.
2005-12-26 16:47:01
463.   deburns
461 So does that mean that Weaver is going to expect to get something approaching that kind of deal? If so, I hope we pass.
2005-12-26 16:48:43
464.   HomeDePo

Erase that post from your memory, it somehow got deleted.

Oh well...

2005-12-26 16:49:16
465.   HomeDePo

Not the post that somehow got deleted, but my post on my blog got deleted, and I do not want to do it again.

2005-12-26 16:51:10
466.   natepurcell
anyone watch the memphis bowl game today? how freakin good is Deangelo williams. if it werent for mr. bush, he would be the first rb taken in the upcoming draft.
2005-12-26 16:59:01
467.   trainwreck
I was watching shows about sharks on discovery channel haha
2005-12-26 17:06:16
468.   trainwreck
So it has been awhile since Nip/Tuck season finale so I can finally talk about it without spoiling it for people. I was dissapointed that I was right on who the carver is. I wanted them to surprise me. Also I said I thought there could be a female accomplice and after Quinten was killed I started to figure out that Kit had to be involved, just a gut feeling and especially as soon as she talked about his supposed dead sister. I liked how the episode ended though. With the carver still free and looking for his next victims and they did a smart thing by making it so that you did not look at the carver as a monster at the end as they used a semi-comical tone for Quinten looking for his next victim. Also the notion of Sean and Julia coming back together provides a good story line for next year along with Matt probably getting arrested or something (he has been close before maybe it will finally happen) and what happens with Christian and Kimber. So while I was dissapointed with who the carver was, there is certainly a lot to look forward to for next season.
2005-12-26 17:08:41
469.   natepurcell
maybe matt and the transexual fall in love.... or something really absurd like that.
2005-12-26 17:41:59
470.   trainwreck
Thankfully no overpaying for Millwood for us. I think it comes down to Wells or Edwin or Billingsley.
2005-12-26 18:03:09
471.   Robert Daeley
Would anybody go for a Dontrelle Willis trade? What would we have to give up do you think?
2005-12-26 18:13:10
472.   Sushirabbit
Anybody else get the 59 El Camino?

I was surprised by Willis this year. He was the first available pitcher in my Keeper League and I passed on him I don't remember who I took now, but D-train would have been better. I think you have to have some fears about durability after last year. That guy has chewed up some innings (236) and had 7 complete games! But he didn't seem to be affected by it later, padres (smirk), Houston and Atlanta were great games.

I'd probably consider it, if we could flip Tomko and somebody else. I still feel like there is a big trade coming, but I hope not for David Wells. That would really be a let down after the good beginning. I'm with the folks that counsel standing with what we have until after the season gets going.

Unless you can get a Clemens, Dontrelle or Santana. Then I'd think about it.

2005-12-26 20:48:10
473.   HomeDePo

I think you have to have some fears about durability after last year. That guy has chewed up some innings (236) and had 7 complete games!

I disagree whole-heartedly. My feeling is that the more a pitcher pitches, the more strong they get. I hate to use a cliched arguement, but 20 years ago all that pitchers did was throw complete games, and they still had long careers. And now we are supposed to be physically superior, especially with a specimen like Dontrelle. The fact that he threw so many innings, and has shown he can throw deep into games, just makes him more 'appetizing' in the prospect of a trade.

2005-12-26 21:04:23
474.   Robert Daeley
Apart from his skills, I'm curious about the possibility of snagging him mostly because of the Florida fire sale this offseason.
2005-12-26 21:10:08
475.   natepurcell
florida has stated that willis and cabrera are off limits.
2005-12-26 21:23:50
476.   dsfan
My two pesos on the pitching situation:

1) Take a flyer on B. Kim. You need another starting pitcher. If not Kim, sign another veteran to a make-good contract like the one Lima got.

2) By getting another starting pitcher, even a No. 5 guy like Kim, you buy time for Billingsley and Jackson. That's important, perhaps vital. It's too early to start Billingsley's arbitration clock. Call him up in June. He could use the low-profile time in the minors to improve his changeup and fastball accuracy.

3) Tomko and Kim could kick in some value later as middle relievers and perhaps set-up guys, roles to which they are better suited. Sure, Tomko's salary is too much for a reliever, but I think his K rates would go up if he moved to the pen.

4) Nurturing the likes of Billingsley/Jackson/Orenduff/Elbert is so crucial that it's hard to overstate it. Overpaying 3-5 veteran starters every year isn't the way to go. Be smart about the kids. Every other NL West club has done a better job of developing homegrown starting pitching the last five years. The LAD need to get it right with these kids. Learning from the Jackson saga is a start. EJ got rushed. He hadn't built up properly when his work load spiked in 2003.

2005-12-26 21:30:29
477.   LAT
5 yrs $60M

A) Jon
B) Charlie
C) Jack

Sounds like Jack Daniels signed the deal.

2005-12-26 21:37:37
478.   molokai
The great beginning by Daniels with the Wilkerson deal has been followed by two huge head scratchers. Did they learn nothing from the Chan Ho fiasco? Being an Angel fan I'm kind of glad that Daniels has turned out to just another ordinary GM.

Good to see Sanchez and Nate reminding everyone of that E Jackson had plenty of success in AA after his demotion and is still young enough that anyone writing him off is doing so to soon.

2005-12-26 21:43:34
479.   Steve
Just give EJ the sixty million bucks now.

It being Tracy Ringolsby and all, he didn't go so far as to explain it, so can someone put on their Think Like An Idiot Cap and come up with the explanation for why Jose Cruz, Jr. would have been a bad signing, but Kenny Lofton is a good signing? Me, I'm not particularly hyped up about either signing, but neither serves too nefarious a purpose either.

2005-12-26 22:01:36
480.   regfairfield

Think like an idiot cap on.

Kenny Lofton hit .335 last year. Jose Cruz Jr. generally hits .240. Also, teams with Kenny Lofton usually make the playoffs.

Idiot cap off.

2005-12-26 22:26:14
481.   das411
480 - ---BREAKING NEWS!! Dodgers sign David Justice and Tino Martinez, guarantee playoff spot in 1997---
2005-12-26 22:46:01
482.   sanchez101
458. thats interesting, i think the dodgers would be best served to just to let their pitching prospects skip Las Vegas. Florida has their AAA affiliate in Albequerque, which has a higher park factor than Las Vegas, and they havent had many problems developing starting pitching. In fact, Florida has the same league affiliates as the Dodgers from low-A ball up to the majors, and they simply skip their pitchers from the Southern League to the majors. Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, and Brad Penny were all young pitching prospects for the Marlins and they collectively pitched 21 innings in AAA before making their major league debut. In 2005 they did the same with Scott Olson, Josh Johnson, and Jason Vargas. The Marlins may be the best organization when it comes to turning pitching prospects into major league starters in baseball.
2005-12-27 02:47:14
483.   teeth
"The Marlins may be the best organization when it comes to turning pitching prospects into major league starters in baseball."

That's a pretty big may. They've infused a lot of talent into their major league club, but all of those guys were pretty highly touted and were dominant in high A and AA. Considering Burnett and Beckett's injury histories, it's sure not a slam dunk that their development scheme was the best. Burnett in particular was pretty lousy in 380 innings in 2000 and 2001, and probably would have been better off and much more useful/valuable in the long run if he had another half season in AA and a year in AAA to improve his control. Also, Dempster was supposed to be another star in that group - actually the first to hit the bigs - and he got 30 IP in two stops in AAA, first for IL Charlotte then for PCL Calgary; he probably should have stayed in Calgary until September that year, and wasn't very effective in his call-up, though perhaps it propelled him to his solid sophomore effort.

Another minor historical issue here is that the Marlins didn't have the Albequerque affiliate until 2003 - they played in Calgary before that, which IIRC was also an extreme hitter's park relative to the PCL, not that that's really relevant to this argument.

There may indeed be evidence that considerable time in the PCL is bad for pitcher's development, but I've never seen anybody go above anecdote to substantiate that claim. As a counter-anecdote, consider that the Cubs' home-grown trio of Zambrano, Prior, and Wood each spent time in the PCL, and certainly none were ruined by it; in fact, the most successful of those to date (Zambrano - same ERA as Prior with more innings, both total and per season, and better ERA and injury history than Wood) spent a season and a half in the PCL and only a season and a half between A and AA. Clement worked out pretty well after a PCL season in the Padres system, too, to finish up the Cubs theme.

This seems like it's getting blown out of proportion on the basis of three pitchers - Jackson, Hanrahan, and Miller. I don't buy it. Jackson looked bad in Spring Training '04 before he ever pitched in Vegas. Miller has been, as far as I can tell, lumped in with the others as players who topped out in AA, but this is only because they were considered the Dodgers trio of SP prospects at the same time; Miller's been injured, not ineffective, and he of course hasn't pitched AAA, and hardly any AA. Hanrahan has just been in free fall, and if he's used as an example of how Vegas kills pitchers, there should be a reasonable explanation beyond platitudes like 'confidence' - why did his K numbers sink and his BB rate rise so high? This is certainly not merely park effects.

Moreover, the Dodgers developed plenty of good pitchers in the '90's who went through Albequerque - Park, Astacio, Valdez/s, both Martinezes. Gagne managed both Albequerque and Vegas just fine (and though nobody really wants to say this now, they gave up on him as a starter too early because they couldn't look past the fluky high ERA in 2001 to see the outstanding peripherals; had he spent 2000 in AAA instead of racking up a 5.15 ERA in the bigs, they wouldn't have been that impatient).

2005-12-27 03:00:20
484.   oldbear
457. If EJ had as good of stuff as you said he does, he'd be striking people out. EJ had one good strikeout campaign, in 2003. 04/05 both in AAA, and when he went back to AA, he hasnt.

Orenduff has K'ed batters are every level.

EJ was great in 2003. But then he got hurt. He hasnt been the same since.

Or one could look at it and say 2003 was an anomaly for EJ, since he hasnt came close to touching that 9.57/k/9 since.

2005-12-27 03:20:07
485.   oldbear
456. I'm not saying the Dodgers should have resigned Dessens. I'm saying that they should not have signed Dessens, Ishii, or Tomko to be the 4th starter.

If Dessens/Ishii both suck, how can Tomko 'not suck'???

When I hear Dodger fans defend the Tomko move, it reminds me of what Mets fans were probably saying when they acquired Ishii.

Bad pitching is bad pitching.

2005-12-27 09:18:21
486.   blue22
Remember kids. Beards may be cool, but violent crime never is.

2005-12-27 09:31:06
487.   Brendan

When I hear Dodger fans defend the Tomko move, it reminds me of what Mets fans were probably saying when they acquired Ishii.

I'm sure you have seen them both pitch so I don't know how you can say that. Every time you watch Ishii pitch he steals a little piece of your soul.

2005-12-27 09:55:22
488.   regfairfield
Tomko career ERA+: 94
Ishii career ERA+: 91

It is true that while Tomko may suck, Ishii was so bad I turned him into a verb meaning to succeed despite poor performance. So named due to his ability to constantly have innings like double, walk, fly out to track, walk, line into double play.

"How did Russ Ortiz do today?"
"He Kazed it."

It can be applied to everyday situations as well:

"Man, I didn't study at all last night, but I really Kazed the final."

See "pulling a Homer" for a similar phrase.

2005-12-27 10:54:58
489.   dsfan
While many of disagree on Edwin Jackson's value and upside, perhaps we can agree that the LAD thoroughly botched his development.

At the age of 19, Edwin Jackon entered the 2003 season with just 126.2 innings of professonal ball behind him.

He'd thrown 104.2 innings the prior year for a low-A club. That's a reasonable work load for an 18-year-old.

But look what happened in 2003: The Dodgers raised Jackson's work load by 67 percent, and that increase came while Jackson was facing hitters in Double-A and later the majors.

Scouts say Jackson hasn't been the same since 2002-03.

Go back to that giddy September in 2003. Even while Jackson was drawing accolades from the media and fans as he helped the Dodgers win some pennant-race games, scouts were fretting that he was laboring, that his arm angle was dropping. But the LAD threw him out there for eight games.

A 19-year-old power pitcher (yes, he turned 20 that September) needs to be protected. Jacksoon had no changeup. His body was still developing. It takes several years to build up most pitchers, but he was completing just his second season. Even before the Dodgers summoned him to the majors, his work load had already gone up some 40 percent against much better competition.

Maybe call him up for one start to give him a taste, then shut him down. But Jackson pitched in eight games for the LAD that fall.

Then, the following spring, Tracy all but decreed that EJ is his No. 5 starter entering the 2004 season. Huge mistake there, putting the kid under the gun like that. And it backfired.

Last year there were accounts that Lasorda, without approval, took Jackson to the bullpen and had him snap off curveball after curveball just one day after Jackson finally had pitched well for Vegas.

Tracy and Lasorda get subpar grades on this one, but for me, the organization gets an F for its handling of Edwin Jackson in 2003. I don't think he's been wholly right since the LAD bungled things badly.

2005-12-27 10:58:33
490.   caseybarker
Ishii was fun to watch though. Like a great roller coaster. I remember a game against the Pirates a couple of years ago. They scored six runs in the second or third inning off Ishii. We scored seven in our half.

Now, I say, thank goodness that is over.

2005-12-27 11:09:36
491.   Jon Weisman
I'm back online. New post up top.

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