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Last August, Jae Seo entered the Mets rotation in place of former Dodger Kazuhisa Ishii, and all I could wonder was what took the Mets so long? The 28-year-old Seo won his first four starts following his recall, averaging 7 2/3 innings per game with an ERA of 0.89. He then allowed 18 runs in his final 36 innings (4.50 ERA), so that for the entire second half, Seo was 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA.
The downside of Seo, whom Newsday is suggesting - based, you should be ever-so-cautioned, on unnamed sources - will be traded to the Dodgers this week for Duaner Sanchez, is that he is another pitcher whose ERA totals might be too dependent on where the ball bounces. Seo struck out 45 batters in his 72 1/3 second-half innings - that's 5.6 per nine innings, which is not an impressive figure. On the other hand, Seo is a true starting pitcher in his prime, with good control (2.5 walks per nine innings in his career), and a much more intriguing placeholder for the Dodger starting rotation than, say, Brett Tomko.
Sanchez surprised last year by raising his K/9 ration by 57 percent from 2004, to 7.79 strikeouts per nine innings. At age 25 (he turned 26 after the season), Sanchez became the Dodgers' third closer of 2005 and did the job - perhaps finding it easier than the setup role that required him to pitch multiple innings in a game more frequently. Durable, Sanchez has also flirted with conversion into a starting pitcher.
The key to whether this would be a good or bad trade for the Dodgers is whether Sanchez's strikeout improvement is real. A one-for-one trade of a relief pitcher with a higher ERA for a starting pitcher with a lower ERA is a no-brainer - the former is more easily replaced (especially given the live arms the Dodgers can find in the minors and on the scrap heap), the latter more valuable. Most relievers are like penny stocks, subject to wild fluctuations and only in rare, pristine cases reliable long-term investments. Only if Sanchez's dramatic strikeout increase is a signal of things to come should the Dodgers even hesitate to consummate this deal.
You could even argue that if Sanchez is the better pitcher, then work should begin immediately to convert him into a starter. It may not have been intentional, but in some ways Sanchez has had all the right preparation for the conversion - he has pitched and become adept in every other role: long man, set-up man and closer. He knows every kind of game situation except facing the first batter of the game. And he wasn't burned out in his early 20s.
Yes, a Sanchez-to-starter experiment could be a failure - maybe he was a born reliever, if there is such a thing - but the experiment is not exactly a risk one should be afraid to take. There isn't too much to lose.
Given their current roster makeup, it's a fine idea for the Dodgers to explore getting a starting pitcher in exchange for Sanchez - whether it is Seo or Sanchez himself.
Update: It's officially Seo, coming with throw-in Tim Hamulack (age 29), for Sanchez and Steve Schmoll, according to The Associated Press.
The loss of Schmoll doesn't bother me - another nice kid with an interesting delivery, but who was too inconsistent, posting 22 walks and 29 strikeouts along with 47 hits allowed in 46 2/3 innings.
1. Choi needs a friend now that Milton is gone
2. McCourt doesn't want to lose the Korean fan base with Choi sitting on the bench
3. Jae Seo kinda sounds like Ja son
I think your write-up is dead-on, Jon, and although I like Sanchez, I agree that the opportunity to get another quality starter is too good to pass up, and that as a reliever Sanchez is more disposable. (Now I do wish we still had Mota, though, obviously...) But the Dodgers have kids in the minors who could replace him in the bullpen - Broxton, Kuo, etc.
Don't they have to replace Carrara, too? (Even more replaceable, obviously...)
NEW YORK (Kyodo) The New York Mets are sounding out the Boston Red Sox about trading second baseman Kazuo Matsui for infielder Alex Cora, Newsday reported Sunday.
The Mets have told the Sox and other teams that they would pay $5 million of Matsui's $8 million salary, the U.S. daily said.
The worthiness of this deal turns on Yhancy. If Yhancy really did fix things in the winter league then I like the deal. I assume Ned believes he did. If not, we will regret trading Duaner. Gagne will be healthy and will still be a front line closer but I believe he will not be as dominate as he was.
In any event, I would have liked the deal better if we hadn't made the Tomko deal. I still want the fifth spot to go to EJ or another prospect and would prefer Seo to Tompko.
When he first came up, Seo was really a two pitch pitcher -- throwing a very good changeup off of a fastball that tops out at 89-90 mph. He'd rarely mix in his slider, and he had a tendency to lose faith in his fastball, throwing mostly the change.
It finally got through to him that he needed to change his repertoire, so he started throwing his slider more frequently and added a curve ball. Finally, this year he added a splitter and cutter, and he looked quite good with a AAA K-rate of 8.31. It became quickly clear to most Met fans, if not some in the organization, that Seo deserved the spot in the rotation Kaz Ishii held for too long.
I don't think he'll be a guy with big strikeout numbers, but I think they could improve a little. Even if they don't, he does have very good control, as Jon mentions, and he changes speeds very effectively now. As a Met fan, I'll be sorry to see Seo go, as he's really our second or third best starter.
If Duaner's 2005 was an aberation...
If Seo didn't pitch over his head last year...
But I, for the most part, like it.
9 - Not to single you out, but I have a hard time agreeing with anyone who would give Weaver a multi-year, big dollar deal after watching him pitch in the first half of the last two years. If he had accepted arbitration, and took a one-year deal to serve as a bridge to the younger pitchers, I'd be happier to bring him back. I can't imagine 3-4 more years of Jeff Weaver.
Still no announcement about this or other coaches from the Dodgers.
Another thing that should be remembered about Seo is he's still pretty cheap and he's not a free agent until (I think) 2009. Given what league-average and even below league-average starters got this winter in free agency, that has real value.
Can Seo do the flying glove trick?
As for 13, Jauss was a former director of player development (albeit for the Red Sox), so hopefully he knows what he's doing with the kids
IMO, the right way to build a bullpen is cheap, versatile, live arms of which LA has plenty. A healthy Gagne would cover a lot of weaknesses too.
Some will tell you that pitching coach Rick Peterson doesn't like him -- I can't say how true that is or not. It's been said that Seo has an attitude problem despite being very soft-spoken, often refusing advice. Those voices, have, however disappeared in the past year as Seo finally added new pitches to his repertoire. So I can't really see any reason why the Mets are so eager to trade him.
The Dodgers totaled 1,177 days on the disabled list in 2005, more than any Dodger team in the last 20 years. That led to the use of 20 rookies, the most in baseball, and 130 different lineups.
Not bad, Schmoll is a "nice-to-have" RHP, certainly not a vital part of the bullpen. Ned likes his lefties, though I don't know of what quality this kid Hamulack is.
Hamulack seems like just a throw-in with a 23 ERA last year. (Or is that "throw-up.") But here's what ProFantasySports had to say about him:
"Hamulack is a lefty specialist who posted unbelievable numbers at two levels in the minors this season."
[http://www.profantasysports.com/easycite/baseball.php?PID=232]
"The thought process behind this was Seo's going to get a chance to start," Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said. "He had a real good year with the Mets and in Triple-A, pitched close to 200 innings.
"This gives us a little more depth in the starting rotation. I don't think this will prohibit us from getting another starter in either free agency or in a trade. One more would be good. I think we have a rotation now that's capable of throwing 180 innings, 200, 210 through all five starters."
Do you have a link for that?
It sounds like ned is doing what i've been saying, stocking up on starting pitching and probably going to explore a trade for abreu.
Remember the rumor of lowe (assuming others also) for abreu, he probably thought that he didn't have enough starting pitching at that time to be able to give up lowe.
Worse, our GM is now getting ripped off by the likes of Omar. Not a sign of good things to come.
The bullpen, which looked solid before, now looks very shaky. I have full faith that Yhency has turned things around, but before if he faltered, Duaner could fill in the setup role and get things done, now, the third best reliever in the pen is Broxton. With reports being that the Pedro incident was not out of character for Grady Little, we could be counting on Broxton and Kuo a lot to keep us in the game if we're down by one. (Can't let the closer or setup man into the game if we're losing, can we?)
Add this to another one of Colletti's decent, but not Earth shattering manuevers.
So far the only move Ned has made that I dislike is the Tomko deal, considering how many moves he's made that is a good %. We are now completely set for the start of the season. With Billingsly/E Jackson/Orenduff bubbling below the surface we will be in a nice position to make any deals we need at midseason or to fill in if we suffer any injuries to our pitching staff.
Why does Seo have to put up a sub 4.0 ERA to be considered successful? I'll take a league average ERA from a starting pitcher from our number 5 starter after taking into account park effects and I'm sure Seo will accomplish that.
Seo projections from 2 sources:
Bill James
IP/Hits/BB/K/WHIP/ERA
154/166/42/92/1.23/4.12
HQ
166/ / /100/1.34/4.35
He's going to be entering his prime and showed a substantial improvement in strikeouts last year. Considering that nasty changeup he developed in the second half, it wouldn't surprise me if they jumped even further. Sanchez showed a lot of promise last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he had a (good) Guillermo Mota type year next year, take that as you will.
There's too many ifs for the Mets to consider the trade in their favor, but there certainly is a chance we can look back at this in five years and wonder how the hell we traded Sanchez for Jae Soo.
"Hamulack has developed to the point of being a strong candidate for a left-handed role in our bullpen."
So, he's going against Wunsch, and I'm guessing Kuo will only be involved if we carry 2 of them. Kuo really isn't a LOOGY like the other 2, and Colletti may not think he's ready
I do wonder if Gagne did anything to help Sanchez...
As a side note, I think the defense will be considerably better than last year(Furcal, Mueller, and Aybar are big improvements over Robles, Valentin, and Perez) and that will have a significant impact on the pitchers ERA.
How far below the surface though? Is that 3/5 of Jacksonville's rotation or Vegas'?
Rotoworld is speculating that this trade allows the kids to start the year at AAA, but I don't think they know exactly what they are saying by that.
Some people are just going to have to get used to the fact that the Dodgers arent going to have an all-world type rotation in 2006
I'm used to it.
Easy to be successful as a sidearmer in the beginning. No question he had a great 2004 in the minor leagues, but the Schmoll I saw in 2005 was Major League hitters laying off his stuff and then hammering him when he had to come in after they adjusted to his style. In time he may become very effective against RHP if he develops better command but I expect Hamulack to be very effective against LHP and I'd rather he be our LOOGY then waste Kuo in that role since Kuo if healthy could be a dominate pitcher against anybody.
Looks pretty straightforward to me.
Just as a side note, I think its funny how I call these guys "kids" even though they are all older than me.
Hemulack is 29. Sure, he has had some success in the minors. But he's 29 and he has a total of 2.1 innings in the majors. Looking at his minor league record, you see a guy that has had a K/9 aruond 8 and a BB/9 around 2 and he has done that pretty consistantly. However, AAA was always a barrier for him. He went up to AAA 3 times over his rather long minor league career and until last year, his stats suffered significantly.
A possible "late bloomer" at 29? Sure. I guess. Between the two, though, it seems more likely that Schmoll has a better upside in that he could become a decent major league middle reliever. Hemulack looks to me like a complete throwaway.
Was the loss of Schmoll a terrible thing? Certainly not. But since I already had questions about the Sanchez for Seo trade, I think the addition of Schmoll to the mix tips the balance.
This ssssssoooooo tells me that 1 of our starting pitchers is going to be dealt for a position player, why would we need another starting pitcher, we now have 5 of them.
Remember the lowe for abreu trade rumor.
Man i hope so.
.287/.384/.432.
This Edwards kid will be huge, let me tell you.
Point is, unless you're on the Angels, there's a reason why a 29 year old hasn't touched the majors.
Honestly, this move baffled me when it was made. Now its even more baffling.
64 innings, 52 hits, 18 walks, 43 k's, 1.49 ERA with a BPV of 95 which is solid.
Come on, your bright enough and know your stats that to compare a LHP pitcher to a run of the mill OF/INF is not doing justice to how each develop.
Sanchez had a great year, but with Gagne returning and Kuo, Osoria, and Broxton all able to break camp with the Dodgers, they will have a young talented bullpen and are dealing from a strength.
However, does this mean Coletti will actively attempt to deal for Odalis Perez? (Not trying to start rumors, just curious.)
Its those mediocre players, that are past their primes, that have no shot at improving, that are paid more than they should be.. (Doesnt that describe Brett Tomko) that make Dodger fans nervous.
D Lowe-- Has had good years in recent past.
O Perez- Ditto
Brad Penny- Ditto
Jay Seou- Ditto
Brett Tomko--Um no.
I expect less for Tomko.
And I doubt he'll be traded after he was just signed. Although it'd be smart if he was. I think there's a rule that you cant trade a player that you just signed in the same off-season..
Seems like a wash, but for less money, and we still have Houlton.
Thought of differently, our "swing-men" are now Houlton/Tomko instead of Alvarez/Dessens.
I see no great change one way or another. The reason for the changes was Weaver's new asking price - this forced some scrambling, and I guess Colletti has managed to tread water pretty well.
At this point, trading for Abreu seems a fantasy - unless most of those extra middling OFers (Lofton, Werth, Repko) go in the deal too. And Philly just let Lofton go, so I kinda doubt it.
Forget Dunn. With Casey gone to Tracyland, Dunn is Cincy's new 1bman, and insurance for the OF when Griffey gets hurt again. Cincy would be daft to trade him while he's still cheap. I mean even more daft than they are.
The Dodgers' bullpen is not a great source of depth anymore. They have some very promising and talented arms but far too many question marks to make me comfortable. These are mostly due to injury and inexperience.
Will Gagne resemble his old self? While talented, Kuo is an inexperienced injury risk, and Wunsch is coming off a bad ankle injury and subsequent operation. Brazoban needs to develop another pitch or two and keep his head on straight. Broxton is dynamite but raw, and Osoria is intriguing with his ground balls but also inexperienced. His Dominican League numbers very well could be misleading.
There is no reason to be optimistic about Hamulacker. Why was he beginning the year at AA at the age of 28 in 2005, when decent lefty relievers are the hardest to find? He made 382 minor league appearances in 10 years. I am not at all hopeful.
65 I wouldn't call Dunn cheap. He'll likely get $8-11m in each of his last 2 arb-eligible years. That's 15% of the Reds payroll.
Its like going to the store and buying a cheap shirt that you'll never wear. Sure its cheap, but if you're never gonna wear it, whats the point in buying it?
And there are cheap pitchers that have a history of not sucking. They are most of the time prospects that have to be given a chance to perform.
I'll take Houlton/Billz/Broxton in the #5 role for the league minimum, than Tomko at whatever they paid him. Unnecessary spending can have cumulative effects.
Maybe your saying that having Tomko sit in the bullpen if (Bills beats him out), isnt going to hurt the club. And that 4.5 mils being spent on him isnt the difference in signing a difference making player. Well, I'm not sure. Sometimes budgets are tight and an extra 5mils may be nice to have around. Or, perhaps due to his contract and vet status, he'll be forced/kept in the rotation despite peformance (I hope this isnt the case).
I like Broxton, Osoria, and Kuo, but I do not want to rely on three of them in the bullpen, in addition to Brazoban, who still hasn't pulled it together. There could be serious growing pains in the 2006 bullpen.
BTW - Surprise #1 - He had elbow surgery in 2004, Surprise #2, was in the Boston Red Sox system in 2004.
Bryan Hoch - Scout.com
September 26, 2005 at 2:46am ET
Inside Pitch checks in with Mets lefthander Tim Hamulack, who had a stellar minor league season at Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Norfolk to earn a September callup to the major leagues.
You missed part of last season with an elbow injury. What was that like?
I missed like the last month of the season, but it had hurt for a long time. I finally went and got it fixed at the end of the year, after thinking, 'There's nothing wrong. There's nothing wrong.' I finally got it done myself and it turned out it was all messed up, but it's a lot better now.
You were directed that the Mets might be a good option for a pitcher coming off surgery. Why was that the case?
I got my surgery and one of the guys I talked to had played with the Mets. I had offers from a couple of other teams, but I figured since they [the Mets] knew a lot about me and what I was doing at that time, it seemed like a good place to go. I guess it was.
After your outstanding year in the minors, what was it like to get that call and make your big league debut (Sept. 2 at Florida)?
It was pretty awesome, I don't know. I guess I can't explain it. I've been waiting so long for it and I finally got it.
You had come pretty close before, nearly making the 2004 Red Sox out of spring training. Knowing what the Sox accomplished, have you thought about what that would have been like?
That was pretty cool too. I was down to the last two guys and then they wound up picking some other guy with more experience. I don't know. Things happened and I never made it back up there. It would have been nice, though.
Spending most of your career bouncing around the minors, did you ever come to doubt that you might realize that big league dream?
You know what? I guess everybody doubts it. Guys here might doubt how they're going to be next year. You never know.
What was the biggest factor in finally achieving it this year?
I would guess getting my arm fixed, and knowing that I'm getting a chance here. Everybody's experience has helped out.
Is there anything you're able to do differently now as a result of the surgery?
Throw a lot harder. Some of the off-speed pitches don't make my arm as sore anymore, so it doesn't take as many pitches to get loose.
At worst, Hamulack should be an upgrade from Mike Venafro for the 51s
Salary (Most desirable to least desirable)
Bills>>>>>Tomko>>>>>Morris
Ability (Most desirable to least desirable)
Morris>>>Billz>>>>Tomko
Combined Overall:
Billz>>>Morris>>>>>Tomko
"We went to Dodger games (growing up), and I've just felt comfortable there. I think it's a confidence thing," Tomko said. "When I was there sitting on the visitors' side (as a player), I would be thinking that this would be a place you could really enjoy."
It's like going to the store and buying a cheap shirt that you'll never wear. Sure its cheap, but if you're never gonna wear it, whats the point in buying it?
Hey, I resemble that remark! I'm wearing my 'Team Depo' shirt right now. Never say never.
At this point, pending a trade of a starter (Odalis) for another OF bat, I could see this team going to spring training.
25 man roster
Pitchers
Penny
Lowe
Odalis Perez
Tomko
Seo
Brazoban
Gagne
Broxton
Osoria
Houlton
Harnulack/Wunsch
Catchers
Navarro
Alomar
IF
Choi
Nomar
Kent
Furcal
Mueller
Saenz
OF
Drew
Ledee
Lofton
Cruz, Jr.
Repko
Bubble - Aybar or Robles
DL - Werth, Izzy
Scorecard - Ned turned over 7 (or 8 depending on the LH relief position) from last year. He signed 6 free agents and traded for 1 (maybe 2) others.
Didn't Tomko spend some time with a sports psychologist a year or two ago and improve dramatically right after that? I realize the improvement didn't last, but maybe he'll psych himself up this time because he'll be playing in front of the "home folks."
Also, I know he has kind of gone under the radar but Joel Guzman did have a pretty good winter, he finished among the league leaders in Slugging and RBI and while he still strikes out close to 25%, he did walk about 11% percent and had an OPS over .800, he also just turned 21.
Also, I'm really no fan of Little, but people keep referring to the Pedro thing. Who was Little supposed to go with? (sorry, got interupted by work) But I don't think Little had any trust of Embree, Howry, Timlin, Mendoza or Fox (or Lowe, wasn't he in bloodblister-relief at that point?)
Seo was described by his high school coach as the "fiery" one.
They are all very good friends.
That being said, I don't believe one should make too much of one incident, unless it is one incident of many similar ones. What troubles me about Little is that I've heard that his over-allegiance to tiring starting pitchers was common.
Actually, you can do what you want, but those are my recommendations.
If Billingsley or E.J. steps up and pitches lights out in the minors, there will very likely be a place for him in L.A.
Right now we've got 5 starters, a swingman who could start if absolutely necessary (Houlton - personally I don't think much of him), and a number of high-upside prospects in the minors, one or more of whom could break out. That's admirable organizational depth in 2006 and beyond.
That said, I want to say that I always enjoyed watching Sanchez pitch. He always seemed to have a lot of pride in his performance and his emotion, more than Gagne but less than Bradley, made my experience as a fan more enjoyable. The goggles and beat-up cap were important aesthetic additions as well.
I will become more comfortable with Ned when I see him finally be willing to promote a young player to the Dodger roster. It is nice to have the kids available, but at some point he is going to have to give a young player a chance to play. If he replaces Sanchez with some pick up from outside the organization instead of going with Broxton or Osorio, I will become even more concerned.
I saw Schmoll last year when he pitched for Vegas when the 51's played in Tacoma. Looked to me he had trouble throwing strikes consistently. With that delivery, I am not sure how much a pitching coach could help him.
Stan from Tacoma
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