The chances of Choi being in another uniform in April might still be higher than you think.

I actually think those chances are quite high.

Nice write up Jon! As usual, excellent work. I can't say enough how much I enjoy D-T for your work and the insights of the participants.

Isn't it possible that Drew may start the season on the DL along with Werth? In that case, the struggle would really be for a number 4 and 5 outfield spot. You have to figure Repko's a lock in that case. Would love to see Ethier come up as at least the temp. 4 or 5 OF.

Anyone been waiting for Simers to nickname Colletti? Because Colletti is now "The Schmoozer"

And I'm not sure I'd call Saito fodder just yet. No one, save the few other Japanese players, have faced him. For all I know, he could have a bizarre pitching style that American hitters wouldn't be used to (does anyone know how he pitches?). I don't think he'll make the team, but he has the potential to surprise

Hey, I was born before the first Kennedy assasination. And I'm left-handed. Maybe I could be a NRI

Great rundown Jon. I hope you've had a relaxing offseason because DT is going back to homepage status next Weds. :)

At this time I would like to nominate Lance Carter as the honorary Jason Phillips Roadblock player of 2006. This ad has been approved and paid for by the Free Jonathan Broxton Campaign. Thank you.

3 - Saito certainly has the potential to surprise - almost as much as Marty does.

I don't think there's an arm angle around that will give a 36-year-old reliever with a 3.82 ERA from the equivalent of a minor league a reason to be on the Dodger staff.

You still haven't succeeded in moving Alomar over to coach?

No, no one's biting.

Great list, Jon. I will now be rooting for Young to make the team instead of Repko, Aybar instead of Robles, and Broxton and Kuo instead of Houlton and Carter.

Jon - thanks for the comprehensive review.

I agree with just about the entire roster. As with everyone else on DT, I would like to see Broxton/Kuo/Osoria in the pen in some way.

Maybe at the expense of Carter? Hamaluck? I guess somebody has to start in the minors.

10 - I'm sure not everyone wants Broxton/Kuo/Osoria.

But Carter and Hammerlock are really going to have to do something to win me over. Which they might do, but if it happens, it will be a surprise to me.

For that matter, I'm pessimistic about Tomko, too.

As self-designated #1 fan of Choi, I agree that the chances of him being in a Dodger uniform are slim. I also think that the chances of Choi becoming a star have been reduced by the way he's been used.

Just because I post about it a lot is not why I'm bringing this up, but I think the absence of some players as they participate in the WBC may have some effect on camp.

Choi and Kuo are going to be in Asia for part of camp and that will definitely affect their chances of making it with the Dodgers. Of course, the WBC could help showcase Choi.

Martin is also going to be in the WBC, but I don't think Canada will get out of pool play. I would be pretty surprised if the Dodgers let Gagne pitch. Canada could put him on the roster in hopes that the Dodgers would let him pitch in the final rounds, but I still doubt that.

Furcal, Brazoban, and OP are on the DR squad. Cruz and Ledee will likely see some time for Puerto Rico (Martinez is on the roster for the Boricuas as well).

Robles is on Mexico's roster and I would think he would start. He played in the Caribbean Series.

Seo is also on Korea's roster.

Hey Bob- do you know how the tiebreakers work coming out of Round 1?

From an MSNBC.com reprint of an AP story:

The tiebreakers in the standings used for advancement will be head-to-head record, followed by fewest runs allowed per inning, fewest earned runs allowed per inning, highest batting average in head-to-head games and a drawing of lots. The tiebreakers are based on International Baseball Federation rules

I'll say it again:

Fans of Broxton/Kuo/Billingsley should have no concerns about roadblocks or lack of opportunity.

A greater concern is overwork and abuse. See Jackson, Edwin, 2003.

Given the dearth of good pitching in MLB, if a pitcher is any good, he'll get plenty of chances against major league hitters to throw his arm right out of its socket.

Jon, I think Broxton likely would benefit from more time in the minors. He was pretty innaccurate as a rookie. If your concern is that Las Vegas is a poor environment for him, send him back to Jacksonsville. Same for Kuo. If they're healthy and throwing strikes, they won't be there very long.

The more decent pitchers the merrier in spring camp. Let's say Meadows tears it up but there's no room for him. Maybe you work out a deal to keep him in Triple A -- "4A" pitching depth there was poor last year and it hurt the LAD. Or maybe you swap him for a prospect.

Do either Delwyn Young or Joel Guzman have any demonstrated aptitude as an outfielder?

What's the over/under on trips to the DL by the All-Star break?

Which Dodger, if any, qualifies for the batting title?

16 - Yeah, I've got no problem with a surplus at all. I'm just not convinced that some of these names constitute a surplus.

17 - They're both learning, or will be.

I have to say that the statement - excuse me, blog entry - by Mark Cuban today is something of a work of art.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2323199

I read so many websites out of Havana now that I keep thinking anything with "Cuban" in it is about Castro.

Money aside, I would not want to be on Mark Cuban's hit list. He is a master of the mind game.

"The coach formerly known as the Zen Master must now be considered my bucket boy."

What a great line.

13 I hope the WBC is a chance for guys like Kuo and Choi to make a positive impression. If Choi helps lead Korea out of their Round Robin Pool, it will be tougher for the Dodgers to send him down to AAA or trade him for another veteran middle reliever.

Great write-up Jon, this is much better than movie or TV talk! :) This is the type of stuff that the LA Times should be printing, instead of the horses@*t they normally do. I can't understand why the Dodgers seemingly blocked Broxton's spot on the 25 man roster.
vr, Xei

24 - Thanks. I think dsfan is right - Broxton can easily make this team if he's worthy.

That doesn't mean he won't be worthy and still get sent to the minors, but he won't be held down long.

Just a reminder: Dodger Thoughts does not endorse partially bleeped profanity. If I can read between the letters, I can read it. Thanks:)

20 - This may be the coolest episode of Laker Thoughts since Kobe put up his 81!

It'd be nice if Mark Cuban owned the Dodgers, that's for sure.

Woah, somehow my comment got erased but I wanted to say that 20 is the coolest episode of Laker Thoughts since Kobe put up his 81!

Oy, nevermind, several refreshes and it somehow slipped through. Argh!

28 - Wasn't there talk of him buying a stake in...the Pirates?

Regarding Choi: Ned's apparent belief that Choi is not worthy of being the starting first baseman will likely become somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy in that, as it stands, Choi will not be put in a position to succeed (i.e. Hee will only be pinch-hitting and spot-starting, which are not really his strengths). As a result of his lack of playing time, his (poor) performance will apparently justify Flanders' belief that Hee doesn't deserve playing time, which will result in less playing time, and poorer performance, and so on and so on.

The more I think about it, the more I hope Hee is traded, for his own sake. The "I hope Nomah gets hurt so Choi gets the starting job" dream is probably misguided, in that there's no guarantee that Hee would get the starting job if Nomah got hurt. A more likely scenario would involve Kent/Saenz/Alomar/Borders getting the job, or Flanders signing yet another aged vet.

Any chance the downtime today was a DOS attack in response to the Dutch cartoons?

Danish, not Dutch.

Ah ha! You fell right in to my trap. Only a sympathizer would point that out. Somebody get a warrant and seize Bob's computer.

Choi lovers, I can see why you're bearish about Choi's chances of getting a meaningful audition from the Colletti regime, but I suspect he will get a decent shake and that you might be underselling Little's clean slate here.

Colletti's acquisition of Nomar wasn't quite a door slammer for Choi. Although Nomar profiles defensively at first base more than he does the outfield, the fragility of the team's outfield also was a factor in his acquistion.

Sure, Garciaparra, an infielder all of his life, would likely prefer first base and probably would find it an easier transition than left field (the left fields in the NL West, by the way, are among the most challenging in MLB).

Still, Colletti likely also was getting Nomar as outfield insurance and we've since learned that Werth likely will be out until June.

The point here is that I doubt Colletti/Little are writing off Garciaparra as a candidate for some time in LF to open the season, given the precarious health of the other OFs.

If Nomar shows he can judge a flyball -- and that's in question -- he could slide over to left for at least a few games per week. It's not like Lofton/Cruz/Drew are ironclad locks to be starting everyday. I'd say it's more likely that one of them is on the DL to open the season.

Choi, of course, needs to do his part and crush the ball in spring training. Power appears a short suit with this team. It's up to Choi to show Little and Murray that he can supply it.

Do the Dodger hold any more minor league options on Choi?

34
Somebody get a warrant

Here ya go

http://tinyurl.com/9eoqu

37- I got really worried when I saw that the link was directing me to something called Apeculture, but it turned out okay.

Just "okay"?

Choi does not have any minor league option years left.

I believe that Choi does have a minor league option left. That is why the full value of his contract is contingent on him making the major league team. I tried to Google it and came up with this:

http://choicentral.blogspot.com/2005/12/d-day.html

Which I believe is directly taken from the Daily News article linked from that post, but which is no longer available on the web.

The one time I don't use a qualifier on a blanket statement and the lawyer jumps all over it to prove it false.

39- Fantabulous, I meant. It was a typo.

42
Sounds like Steve's back On Notice.

43
I guess the Dodgerthoughts spellchecker doesn't recognize that "fantabulous" isn't spelled "okay".

If Choi played fabulously well during ST, would he be more deserving of a spot? He's a pretty well known commodity. Why weight ST numbers more, or even the same, as his career numbers? I've had pretty well all my ferver over his future beaten out of me, so, whatever. Still. . .

I think Steve has an alert set up that lets him know when an untruth begins to circulate regarding Choi on Dodgerthoughts.com.

Maybe the persistence that Choi doesn't suck on this site has had an impact? From Dodgers.com, Gurnick proclaims: "Garciaparra has the greatest challenge. He not only is playing a new position, but predecessors Hee-Seop Choi and Olmedo Saenz actually finished the season with respectable platoon numbers at first base (a combined 31 homers and 104 RBIs)." A rare set of props for the 10th best 1B production in the majors last year.

I think Steve has an alert set up that lets him know when an untruth begins to circulate regarding Choi on Dodgerthoughts.com.

Touche to you, sir.

Robin, to the Choimobile!

Can I be Robin? I've always liked being the sidekick.

The Robin to a Batman.
The Tonto to a Kimosabe.
The Grover Dill to a Scott Farkus.

The Maynard to a Dobie.

The Patrick to a Spongebob.

The Jason to a Jayson.

The Troy to a Janitor.

The JD to a Dr. Cox.

But not a Jason to a Ja(y)son. I gotta draw the line somewhere...

Still three spots left in the F^%$%*s of Dodger Thoughts yahoo fantasy baseball league (which is not officially sponsored by DT management). Feel free to sign up if you are interested in this kind of thing. vr, Xei
http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1
League ID#: 35204
League Name: Friends of Dodger Thoughts
Password: repko
Draft Type: Live Draft
Draft Time: Sat Mar 25 8:45pm PST
Max Teams: 16, Scoring Type: Rotisserie

wow! The Depodesta Dodgers took over first place from Arizona tonight. I wonder if it's not too late to hire Depo back. vr, Xei

DBacks vs PD Dodgers
Pitching Matchup Results
B.Webb vs B.Penny ... PD Dodgers win 3-2, 13inn.
Game summary: The Dodgers scored one in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game and then one in the 13th to end a thrilling game. .

O.Hernandez vs D.Lowe ... DBacks win 8-7
Game summary: The Dodgers rallied back from a 7-1 deficit, only to see the DBacks score one in the top of the 9th to win the game. J.Drew and H.Choi each drove in three runs for the Dodgers. J.Estrada and E.Byrnes each had four hits for the DBacks. .

R.Ortiz vs J.Weaver ... PD Dodgers win 12-6
Game summary: The Dodgers scored 9 runs in the first two innings and never looked back. H.Choi, M.Bradley and D.Navarro each slugged HRs, Navarro's was a first inning grand slam. The Dodgers took over first place in the standings.

47 - preaching to the Choir?

Obviously a computer would say DePo is better.

Now if you did this with pencil, paper, and moxie...

54. haha! I lost my moxie, I need to get my prescription refilled. :) vr, Xei

would that be for moxie cream, or the clear kind?

As Bob reported in the Griddle, Gagne expects to skip the WBC. However, according to Martin, "He's throwing great, his fastball is hopping and his changeup is really good". Also, Gagne told Martin to skip the WBC (which would make LaForest the starter) because "[Gagne] told me I have a shot at making the Dodger team, and that if I miss part of spring training it will jeopardize my chances."

http://tinyurl.com/dd2ml

51 - Can you explain your preference for rotisserie? I've never understood how one could prefer it to point scoring...

58 I'm almost entirely sure you have to pay Yahoo if you want points, unless they just changed that.

You can do either on Yahoo...My point is that I think point scoring is a much better way to go.

60 Wow, if only switching over to points wouldn't completely screw over my league.

60- What's the difference?

Rotisserie scoring works as follows: you take your rank in the league for each statistical category, and you then get points for each. For example, leading the league in home runs gets you 12 points in a 12 team league, finishing 3rd in strikeouts gets you 10 points, etc.

This has two problems: First, once you lead the league in a category, it doesn't matter how much you lead the league. Usually, there's no difference between hitting 200 and 500 home runs. Also if a large gap emerges between two players, it encourages in the player on the bottom to abondon the category, since they have no chance of catching up.

Second, it places equal weights on every category. On a one for one basis, a stolen base is more valuable than a home run. This leads to things like Chone Figgins and Scott Podsednik being 3rd round picks. (Home runs do end up being slightly more valuable in the end, since you get a run and RBIs too.)

In a points league, you get a certain amount of points for every thing: one for a single, three for a steal, ten for a home run, etc. You total up your points at the end, and that determines the winner. It really is a better system.

63- Thanks.

By the way, I've really enjoyed your Piazza retrospective. dodgermath.com/?p=260 (that's the latest), if anybody else hasn't seen it. I wonder if Plaschke ever reads back through his own archives. Maybe he could have a staffer read them to him. Slowly.

I just joined the DT league, I believe that was the last spot available too...

Even though a points system is fairer (as in, the team with the best overall players usually wins), Roto presents alot of interesting strategic moves. Where as most trades and moves in Points systems are just to try to get the best player possible in any situation, in Roto leagues you get alot of teams playing different strategies and trying to get points in different categories (and trying to screw each other over to lower their points), which makes for a pretty interesting game...

http://tinyurl.com/b2fte

As always, this sort of talk is merely an embarrassment to the player. But the bigger question is whether the Times will embarrass itself by taking the player's side (as it did with Cora, Beltre, et al) or the team's side (thus continuing to highlight the double standard in their respective coverage). Will Tim Brown brush up the resume tomorrow? Stay tuned...

66- You don't understand. Stoneman didn't call Molina because of normal human reasons. DePo didn't call Beltre, Cora, et al, because his computer told him not to. It's not a double standard, it's case-by-case evaluation.

Have you ever heard Bill Stoneman being interviewed? The word "human" does not come to mind.

I think Roto is much better than H2H or even a points league. Roto presents much more strategy than a points league. I think you will see the more experienced players using Roto and the newbies playing points.
vr, Xei

Fantasy baseball talk : Jon :: TV talk : Xeifrank

But since I don't have a new post for you at this moment, carry on.

63 Just to clear up the roto scoring a little bit, the total points aren't actually awarded until the end of the season. You keep standings up to date and all, but you aren't actually awarded the points for the category until the last game is played.

I haven't played points (unqualified opinion here), but it seems like the draft in the a non-keeper roto league is much more difficult to prepare for if you do the auction style drafting.

70 Hah! I'm the same way. But if Xei can put up with my movie/tv ramblings, I can endure roto talk :)

I believe one of our commenters here wrote this about the NL West and its fantasy baseball implications:
http://www.sethspeaks.net/020306.htm

Great job Jon, just one thought. Justin Ruggiano should be in the outfield mix for a callup during the year if injuries hit. His MLE based on his AA performance is a sweet 292/345/441 compared to Ethier's of 281/332/424. They are both 23 and corner outfielders and neither has played above AA and both project to be at least good 4th outfielders if not starting corner outfielders. Cody Ross peaked in the minors in 2003 and his 2005 MLE is 201/258/353 which is about as bad as it gets. He should have bounced back from his injury last year so the decline does not appear to be injury based but skill based.

Other interesting MLE numbers:
Billingsly 3.64/1.16
Broxton - 3.27/1.16
Gonzalez - 4.92/1.65
Hamulack - 1.49/1.08 he was awesome last year. Should be at least as good at Wunsch as our LOOGY.
Hanrahan - 5.62/1.64
Orenduff - 3.98/1.23 small sample for starter
Osario - 2.13/1.27
Stults - 4.80/1.52

74 - Thanks. This was a Spring Training Primer, though - so I only considered those on the 40-man roster or non-roster invites. It doesn't preclude others making progress - I just needed to limit my scope.

Nate Silver had some nice comments on Dionar Navarro over at BP. It was nice to see because I know BA is not impressed with him. Basically it said that while Martin is getting everyone excited they shouldn't be neglecting the fact that Navarro is also pretty good. I'd link the site but you have to be a paid subscriber. Nate said that if he develops power his upside could be Ted Simmons and if not a Mike Scoscia career is not out of the realm of possiblity. He did a breakdown on catching prospects and Martin comes in 7th based upon cathers who've never played one game in the Majors. That includes Jojima who really shouldn't qualify and Josh Willingham who probably will not remain as a catcher. He then compared prospects who have played some ML ball and Navarro rated 3rd but his statistical numbers based on Nate's methodology would have put Navarro 2nd in the prospect only list behind Jarrod Saltalamacchia who is well above the rest of the pack. Navarro placed above Martin by a WARP factor of 18.9 compared to 16.3 and an upside of 131.7 to 53.3. Needless to say Nate is very high on Navarro's future. Martin also looks good in this analysis. While he is not in the top 5 the numbers are very close and for the catchers rated 3rd - 8th there is not much difference while a huge drop off occurs after the 8th ranked prospect. I'm not doing the column much justice. For those who have BP, you should read it as Nate is trying to take the noise out of ranking prospects and I found it to be a great column. Maybe Jon could do a better column on it.

I guess we can be very thankfull that Molina signed with Toronto and Piazza with SD.

76 - I saw that and was pleased to see it. That being said, I've tried, but I can't really get in a groove with PECOTA (the projection system that Nate/BP run). I'm still not convinced of its merits - though perhaps that's my flaw.

I've expressed before that in my mind, Navarro shows promise, that the Dodgers have two promising catchers. I'm satisfied with that generality.

70. Fantasy baseball:Dodgers::TV Talk:Entertainment Tonight.
but it's your blog. :)
vr, Xei

Anyone else spooked by that "Ghost of Scott Erickson" comment? It kind of reminded me of that old black and white movie where some guy named Scrooge is visited by the ghost of xmas past. It also reminded me of a couple of X-File episodes, the Get Smart episode with the cone of silence and the Taxi episode where Jim is acting all crazy. :)
vr, Xei

LOL, Xeifrank.

New post up top.

"the Taxi episode where Jim is acting all crazy."

Er, that would be episodes 2 through 47, right?

re: fantasy. frankly i prefer h2h over roto, because you get weekly results and you get to do more trash talk after you beat someone. also you have to change your gameplan from week-to-week depending on how the matchup is, so it requires more strategy, i think. but either way, it'll be fun to play with you guys.

I'm looking forward to the injury bug devestating us again so we can enjoy an Aaron Sele-Ed Bellorin battery, with Truby fielding smashes at the hot corner. Woo hoo!

I wouldn't be surprised to see Matt Kemp up sometime in 2006, before September even. And/or Ethier. Especially given some of our brittle OFs history...