Sure he does...

"It's been ingrained in me since I was young," Ethier said. "I've been successful with that approach, not chasing balls out of the zone. It can be a tough adjustment." What does that mean? Are they encouraging him to chase pitches? Little's comment was one of the most boneheaded things I have read recently and I just hope that Little was taken out of context.

guzman and martin for miggy cabrera? done.

if they are hyping him, that "monstrous" bomb to right center today just inched up his trade value a bit.

taking this from the last thread, anyone else concerned with little's "this isnt oakland, we swing on 3-0 here" comment?

That's the optimistic take. But I don't believe it's the correct one. This is going to be frustrating. Still and all, I'll take fewer walks if it also means fewer bunts.

Bad news: I'm finding it harder and harder to not wish I was an A's fan.

Good news: Steve's new blog should be as wonderfully entertaining as the last one.

Flanders: Thanks for meeting with me. I have a question for you.
Grittle: Shoot.
Flanders: Do you do "the Oakland thing"?
Grittle: No.
Flanders: You're hired.

I totally agree. It's Little's Plaschke-esque generalization of the Oakland organization that really bothers me.

Bet you those cancers win a hell of a lot more games this year than our lovable bunch of gamers do.

Joel Guzman gets traded this year.

Rafael Furcal moves to center field before his contract runs out.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5368932

no, he isn't talking about Milton.

I'll charitably assume you're not being snide.

Nomar's arm action isn't suited for 1B.

You can disagree with me, but you're also disagreeing with several major league clubs on that score.

Maybe you should see how it plays out.

Is there a link?

Call them educated hunches.

More fans for baseball?

I'm glad that Oscar is in camp, he will play a lot with Izzy and Furcal in and out with recovery. His only real negative is speed but he can fill in 2nd, SS and 3B, he hit .272 in over 300 at bats,and his contract will be around $350 - 375K while Martinez made 1 million last year. He is also four years younger.

YES.

even scarier was ethier's quote on having to adjust to hacking at balls out of the strike zone. it's like i'm in bizarro land.

Glad to see Jack Wilson get that contract as now Izzy looks even more valuable to the right team. Sure wish Atlanta hadn't acquired Renteria as we'd have been a nice match for them if Izzy can stay at SS which I'm betting on. Wish the Twins would trade for Choi.

www11.brinkster.com/xtraxisx/t3.html

Didn't say that he did. I could be wrong more often than not, but I always try to choose my words carefully. I said that the "worry" is that does. Meaning "my worry."

And it's not an obviously dumb thing to worry about. Lots of people like to have "rules to live by," figuring that having a rule is easier than making decisions on the fly. It's been my experience that long-time baseball men are disproportionately of that type.

So, no, I don't know that Little is unthinking. But statements like the one quoted make me worry that he might be.

Indeed, it's a bizarre prediction. Time will tell.

42 I really hope that Werth isn't out of the picture. I'm fantasizing that Werth boots Lofton to the bench and given at least two months to show us what he can do if healthy, but I'm not optimistic about it.

I think he could skate if he has a big year.

He's not an LA-type of guy.

I always thought that what Oakland and the Yankees for that matter believe, is that by making the pitcher make more pitches, you get to their bullpens earlier which gives you a better chance to win. No one ever seems to bring up the Yankees in this discussion and they are always among the leaders in walks.

I think the bigger issue is telling Ethier that he should look for a pitch to hit instead of waiting out a walk, I always thought the auto-take was a little inane, if the pitcher knows he can throw a "strike" that the batter won't swing at, then he can set up a pitcher's strike at 3-1. Maybe someone has tracked this, I wonder what the collective average is on 3-1 after the batter has taken the first strike at 3-0.

I don't care if Lofton is a sure hall of famer based on his career stats (which he ain't). All that matters is what he projects to do this year. And for guessing that, last year was the anomalous one amidst a secular decline over the past several years. And he's even older and in a pitcher's park. I expect him to be pretty lousy this year. Better than lousy if platooned, but lousy if played every day. I haven't even looked at any projections - what do those say?

Is the only reason you're willing to give (for your bizarre prediction that Furcal gets sent to CF) really that other people think so too? Is the real reason a secret?

cool article on our catchers.

From the AP:
"The switch-hitting Winn, slated to be the team's leadoff hitter and starting center fielder this season, will get a $3 million signing bonus and salaries of $4 million in 2007, $8 million in 2008 and $8.25 million in 2009, according to agent Craig Landis.

Winn will make $5 million this season in the option year of his prior deal."

Oops. I fed a potential troll. Shoot me.

Their jobs, to me, seem as meaningful as the college basketball star who gets paid to keep alligators out of the gym.

http://tinyurl.com/guldw

Yeah, I really started to feel the same way last year. I mean, if it's the GM's job to assemble the roster, and if the GM (as Depo did) has really strong preferences for who should be starting and at what positions, then why not just let the GM make the lineup everyday, and let the coaches handle the other responsibilities? There are obvious problems when the GM and manager don't see eye to eye, so you might as well just let the GM make the roster decisions.

The 2005 Dodgers make a great case for "Managers: what are they good for?"

Apparently.

64 - The 2005 Atlanta Braves (or NY Yankees or ChiSox for that matter) show you exactly what managers are good for.

However, it does seem to be par for the course, for example, the Angels only had 2 hits in 3 at bats.

Maybe Grady has a point, Oakland had one at bat on a 3-0 count by Chavez otherwise they walked every other time (I think 112 walks in 113 plate appearances). I should have checked Oakland's stats on 3-1, I can tell you that Dodgers hit .329 on 3-1 counts, some of the leaders include HSC batting .529, Oscar Robles and Jason Repko.

Who knows what this proves, generally 3-0 probably means that you are going to walk the vast vast majority of times so you should probably limit attempts for Rick Monday key analyst point of looking for a pitch to drive.

And even for the in-game stuff, I imagine there's a lot of variation in how much managers run the show versus following the advice of their coaches. Sure managers make pitching changes, but how do we know when they're leaving the decisions about same to pitching coaches? Same thing for pinch hitting or defensive switches. Having one guy as the overall "manager" of the game makes sense. It's about accountability.

Just like the presidency - it's not a one-person job by any stretch, but it's still a good idea to have one person who is supposedly accountable for all of the decisions of the others.

A lot of us just think that only bad choices can come from independent thoughts during games by those guys. Hire smart underlings, then get out of the way.

OK, I choose my words carefully, but apparently not my keystrokes. Mangers might in fact be pointless, but I guess that's a religious issue, far from the purview of DodgerThoughts.

Managers is what I meant. Yeah, that's it.

If I owned a team, I'd hire an in-dugout, licensed psychologist/counselor.

Why pay a Harley-riding bumpkin to do the work of a professional therapist?

But something in this thread got me thinking----
Werth-spring 2005, drilled by a Barnett fastball;wrist broke, torn ligament not discoverd till after season; surgery in Nov.!! not ready for spring!
Drew- nursing his shoulder this spring after labrum surgery. Also clean-up surgery
on right wrist.(avoided surgery on left wrist,broken by pitch on June 3rd,ending season effectively! not to mention chondromalcia(progressive arthritis in left knee.!
Furcal- had surgery on his right knee in January(January!!!) and is not ready for spring training!
Although I condensed the evidence it can't be denied given the money involved there is massive incompetence in either medical evaluation or Front office decisions.
Somehow Isturis has managed to rise above this meat grinder. It was obvious he declined hugely trying to play with grevious injuries. It could be that he will shine out of this mess.

Perhaps some kind of Matt Foley type...who lives in a van...down by the river...

How cruel is it that the only two Dodgers since 2004 who returned from injury ahead of schedule were Cesar Izturis and Alex Cora?

80

There you go!

Soccer teams in countries other than the U.S. are led by "managers" and not "coaches".

That doesn't make it right, but it makes it understandable that no club has bothered to innovate away from the tried and true. Young pups like Eric Wedge really do stand out as exceptions.

There used to be a lot of player-managers, but not for a long time.

And actually once Penny came back last April, he was injury free for the rest of the year.

I blame the Padres for another problem last year, had they just gone out and won going away, basically putting the Dodgers out of the chase by mid-August, maybe we could have seen HSC play everyday, Jeff Weaver might have been dealt (although people here might like the draft picks more) and injuries like Werth and Drew's could have been examined more closely. But because we had that more than slight chance to stay in the race, Drew tried to rehab for September, Werth continued to play despite apparently never being right and Weaver kept pitching for the Blue. Are we better off because we stayed in the race or did we lose a chance to make some evaluations.

BTW, I apologize if this was brought up during the dog days of last season, if it was thourougly vetted, then accept this rant and we can move on.

Steve et al, it's almost time for our weekly fix of Betty White and William Shatner...

But can't pitching coaches, hitting coaches, etc. etc. offer legitimate advice that players will respect?

"If somebody has a good year, stays injury-free and goes out there and does their job, I don't know why you would expect that person to take a backup role," [Player X] said. "If Roger Clemens goes out and pitches well and does his job, I don't think there would be teams that expect him to take a role as a reliever. I don't know why anyone would expect me to do that when I feel my abilities are going on the upswing, not the other way."

http://tinyurl.com/s9f9j

Also, it's not just advice. It's also decisions about playing time.

Look, I agree that the more managers make their presence felt during games, the worse it usually is for their teams. But I also believe that vertical accountability works better than some sort of group decision making.

Remember those long threads before DePo was fired about how hard it was to come up with a name of someone who would play DePoBall, but still seem legit as a manager to the players? Some of us guessed that Hershiser might be such a guy, but it was really just pure speculation, probably because he wears nerdy classes.

Today, I get a bill for the amount I paid last month with a 2/1/06 due date. With it is a sheet of paper saying ignore the due date, the January bill is not due til 3/11. But it's the bill I already paid! Argh. I know they are going to try to dock me for that amount again if I don't put up a fight.

I hate T-mobile

While they had their Rookie of the Year run in the 1990's, let's not forget that none of them were highly thought of when they were drafted, Karros, Piazza and Hollandsworth, Raul was identified pretty early but he was a signed as free agent from the Dominican, and Nomo was from Japan.

Then the new sheriff came and went, Evans came and went, DePo came and went. Now Neddy, who because someone (I guess Evans) brought Logan White on board, and he was able to convince them to sometimes pay money to picks, (LaRoche got a big bonus to sign while drafted in the 38th round), he now has the system packed and ready to go.

The Dodgers are fortunate to have nearly 50 years here and some links to past success (Vin and Tommy) around to keep their fans around but I won't be real happy until I see big Chad pitching and some of the guys from Jacksonville and Vegas standing behind him and catching him.

Soriano or Izturis at SS? You make the call.

If they played under a giant mirror, wouldn't shortstop be second base?

And have SWAGGER!

I'd say the truest generalization is that Nationals fans want Brad Wilkerson (and the people they think of as "those other guys") back and want Soriano to go away.

Maybe I'm lucky. The classes in my field are quite small (35 max), and the TAs are almost invariably masters students. But I agree with your larger point.

>

Apparently, taking on 3-0 is an "Oakland thing." That's not so endearing to me, personally.

Little said he gave Ethier the hit sign on a 3-0 pitch, but the lefty took a strike.

"I was a little scared he was into that Oakland thing," Little said, referring to Oakland's emphasis on patience and on-base percentage. "We swing here on 3-0."

he has a thick new york accent. i didnt know that.

If I was Joel Guzman,I'd be happy tho. Apparently plate discipline is no longer a pre-requisite for making the roster.

Hack. Hack. Hack. Hack.

Good Times in 2006.

Icaros, you said you'd hire a licensed psychologist.

Ned and Grady may have been listening to you. He's probably not licensed but our new bench coach Jauss has a Bachelor's degree in psychology from Amherst College and a Master's degree in sports management from the University of Massachusetts-Amherst.

Great. Now Little can scram.

Once again, capitalism rears its ugly head and "we the people" are the losers.

Eric Gagne is not even in the same universe as Kobe Bryant in terms of value to his team, even when O'Neal was still around.

If you root for the Pirates, you should be thankful you have a team despite being undeserving.

I think the best thing baseball could do is contract 2-4 teams, which then in turn would increase the overall quality of the game.

I've always felt Anti-Trust has severely limited Baseball's ability to govern itself. That, and I believe anti-trust is anti-capitalism.

Also, do away with the MLB draft and just let teams sign which ever players they feel should be signed. Age limits are bogus. Etc. Etc...Unions are bogus... Etc Etc..

If only Larry Kudlow was the commish of baseball.......

Of course, Guzman looks a lot like an Ewok at the plate, so it doesn't really take a Predator, I suppose.

Not exactly related: remember that guy who kept trying to get us to call Odalis Perez, Peanut? That was pretty awesome.

What good will it do you if you keep it hidden? For that matter, what good do diamonds ever do?

Hmm, maybe the fat lady should shut her mouth and take a seat. The New York Post hears brand-new buzz that Showtime has not only picked up Fox's canceled Arrested Development but has ordered a full 26 episodes.

Also drawing praise from the manager (was)...Jason Repko, who stole extra bases from Young by sprinting to dead center and hauling in his long drive.

"We were excited with the way...Repko caught it," he said. "It was good all the way around."

BROTheR

All in favor. The vote is unanimous.

Not a huge surprise that the highlight of an 8-3 loss would be what was no doubt another terrible Repko jump. That was the highlight of all of last year's 8-3 losses to real major league teams.

1. Grittle is shorter
2. Grady looks like someone who might go by the name of Grittle
3. Grittle sounds like Griddle

You are pretty much correct about Lee and Choi being Korea's biggest two power threats.

Jong-Beom Lee is supposed to be pretty good.

He hit .310 in Phili, and .367 on the road.

Lofton getting on, and Guzman driving him in sounds a lot better than Cruz and Guzman.

Especially on offense, this is a big improvement.

Gagne was beyond happy with this dodger offseason. He likes the direction of the team, he said so.

Well, in 2005, Depo would take the A's roster over the White Sox for sure according to your reasoning.

http://tinyurl.com/h9gbr

grienke is a wierd kid. grienke also has a lot of self pride and since hes been labled the royals savior the past 3 years, he doesnt take failure or criticism too well.

buddy bell, the royals manager had a closed door meeting with greinke this weekend where he told him that greinke will start the year in AAA and not in the royals staring rotation. apparently, greinke left because of that.

I am going against the trend and I am picking both lefties to be on the club and Houlton to go to Vegas to start with possibly the best bullpen in Dodger AAA history.

Kelly Wunsch
Tim Hamulack

Alomar will be the b/u catcher
Saenz, Robles b/u infielders
Ledee will be one outfielder.

Which leaves Choi, Repko, Aybar and maybe Ramon Martinez for two spots. Saenz and Ledee are going to be the top righty/lefty pinch hitters and if Ledee plays, Cruz can switch.

Logic tells me that Repko has to be there because they need 5 outfielders and none of the prospects will be there because they want them to play not sit.

So then we are at the last spot, Choi, Aybar or Ramon Martinez. I hate to say it but if Choi is going to play, they really should try to find someone who will give him shot because it doesn't make sense to have him as a second left handed pinch hitter. I like Aybar in this spot because he can back up the rest of IF positions.

Unless Nomar gets hurt this spring, the Dodgers are probably hoping HSC hits a lot of homers and someone calls. I just don't see a spot for him. Blame Tracy for not playing him last year and playing guys like Phillips, et. al. but I think HSC will not be in a Dodger uniform when he comes back from the WBC.

Scraptacular bench.

Later, these quotes made Gagne look like a total moron when he went back on those words, and started ripping management.

I lost mucho respect for Eric after those comments.

you can't base Lofton on last year's numbers because last year's numbers don't follow the trend. He had three or four extremely average years before that. If anything, Lofton is going to slide rather than improve...and I HIGHLY doubt he repeats his numbers from last year.

Today, I heard some of Mr. Tony's radio show coming in to work. Two comments:

1. The show is sponsered by a lobbying firm called -- honest -- Hyjek & Fix. Somehow, I thought they weren't quite supposed to describe the work exactly like that, but what can you do.

2. Mr. Tony had Dave Sheinin, who is covering Nationals Spring Training, on (a not that you care note -- Sheinin is a national bb writer, not the Nationals' Beat Writer, but that guy couldn't make it to campe b/c he was coverying Olympic hockey). Anyhow, first question, "So, isn't Jim Bowden a complete boob?" Kornheiser went on to rip Bowden for being a "self-aggrandazing" "fool." Sheinin -- no Bowden lover himself -- tried to defend a little by pointing out that at least the Lawrence deal seemed a like a good one, because the team got something for an overpaid broken down third baseman they didn't need and who they were basically ready to dump for nothing, and Kornheiser somewhat deftly pointed out that the contract they were so desperate to bump was given out just last year by Jim Bowden.

Then I got to work. Good stuff to start the day. Kornheiser's bit gets repetitive and old pretty fast, but I think he's a smart and observant guy.

Living in KC I get to hear his interviews sometimes and he just comes off wrong to me. He has been highly successful at each stop in his career so this kind of news is not taken easily.

1st- Nomar versus Choi/Saenz - Nomar has had 321 and 230 at bats the last two years. He hit 283/320/450 with 9 home runs. The Choi/Saenz combo hit 30 home runs with about a 250/330/465 line. As Jon has pointed out numerous times the combo of Choi/Saenz was very effective in 2005. Saenz didn't do anything he hasn't done before except get more at bats which helped his counting stats. Other then 2001 he has slugged over 460 every year of his career. Nomar will have to dig back to 2003 and stay healthy to be an upgrade.

2nd Base - Kent, no change but Kent is one year older at a position where players don't age well.

SS - Furcal is a huge upgrade over Izzy

3b - Mueller over Jose Valentin - On the surface a solid upgrade but Mueller is now at the same age that Valentin crashed and burned and it would not surprise me to see Mueller not be able to play 50 productive games. He's always had chronic knees and they don't get better as you get older. This won't bother me one bit since by August LaRoche would be a better option anyway and Aybar might even be a better option right now.

C - Navarro over J Philips - Yes, another solid upgrade. Maybe even a huge upgrade because Navarro can get on base and actually score when Furcal gets a hit after he was bunted to 2nd base by Lowe.

RF - Drew versus Drew -

CF - Lofton versus Milton - Not a big fan of Milton but he does win the battle. No question that Lofton had an excellent year in 2005 but I don't think to many people will choose a 39 year old CF whose game is speed over a 28 year old CF with power and speed. If Werth can come back and take some LHP at bats and put up his 2004 line then this could be a wash but I think Werth is done as a Dodger after his latest string of constant injuries. CF will be the 2006 weakest link unless they move Drew to CF and move Lofton to the 4th outfielder role. Since he is not much of a team player based on his previous whining in NY when asked to be such a player this will probably not happen.

LF - Cruz versus Werth - I guess I'm the only Cruz fan here but I'll take Cruz even over the 2004 Werth. Neither are special and if Guzman can take the job so much the better.

Yes, I'd have to agree that the 2006 offense looks better then the 2005 offense at the same point of the season. Still think the team would be better with Nomar in LF and Drew in CF with Lofton a 4th outfielder and Choi/Saenz manning 1st. What I like most about the 2006 season is that unlike 2005 we have answers for injuries. Anyone of D Young, Guzman, Ethier would be better then Ross, Feng, Repko. Aybar has already proven he can play a decent 3b with solid OB skills. Robles can handle SS for a few games at a time. Martin can step in if Navarro goes down. If Nomar can hit like 2003 and Drew/Kent/Furcal stay healthy this can be a very good offensive team but I can't imagine Nomar all of the sudden being able to be both healthy and good at the same time anymore. I also have zero faith that JD Drew will stay healthy enough to be the big hitter we need. 3 more surgeries makes me nervous especially the shoulder one and since he was unable to do a winter workout since he was rehabbing from all the surgeries, a slow start like 2005 is probably on the horizon. Which is to bad because I'd rather see him have his 2004 season and then exercise his option and take himself elsewhere.

Of course without the greenies who knows what any of these players are actually capable of during a full season. To me that will be the big story of 2006 and I wish Bouton was around to give us the inside look at how the players handle having to deal with work without any external pick me ups. I guess coffee and red bull will be ingested in large quantities.

Also liked the Times article on the game yesterday.

Not sure how well they'll mesh with the stadium atmosphere. If we can't have organ music, the Blue Man Group is definately preferable to whatever they're pumping into the stadium.

A question about the Choi/Sanez 30 HRs: Does that number exclude HRs hit by Olmado while playing third?

ThIrTy bOmBs!.!

and therefore...well, I had some sort of point there, but I don't know what it was.

Did anybody else get this/feel that it's a bit excessive assumption that I'd be back? I'm considering contacting them over it.

Always read the fine print.

but, since we seem to be collecting middle infielders, maybe the twinks will make juan castro available.

They do tell you it's automatic renewal when you sign up. But most people just skip over it.

For TV, I use Extra Innings on my cable system because I find it easier to look at a TV than my computer screen.

anyway, hsc's hardships in the local press have been well documented, and being asked to replace an icon like mark grace couldn't have been easy.

it seems that terry ryan is not afraid to cut bait with prospects after a year or two (restovich, kielty, and possibly cuddyer), while at the same time he gives extended tryouts to others (morneau, guzman, rivas).

"Jim Tracy has brought life to this team," said Wilson on Tuesday. "And I'm not saying that just because I want to hit second. This is the first year I have ever seen so much optimism here."

Oh what fools these Pirates be...

195- et al. HSC to Oakland when Thomas goes down? What do we get back? Bradley?
(it's a joke).

Ya reckon we can pry an outfielder away from Atlanta for Baez? That strikes me as the best bait LA has at the moment.

http://tinyurl.com/okgrp

Maybe the kid was making a statement (sort of in the mode of de Bergerac). I hate to hear it, but it gave me a laugh, too.

the marlins dumped beckett because hes making 4 mil or so in arb this year, cabrera's going to make somewhere around that next year... can we say huge trade deadline deal?

who could beat our offer? the angels could, but stoneman is hold'em with his prospects. the dbacks could, but they are pretty cash strapped themselves.

"Jim Tracy has brought life to this team," said BELTRE on Tuesday. "And I'm not saying that just because I want to hit SEVENTH".

I don't see any way they trade Cabrera. If anything, he'll be the one guy they keep.

Although if they DID trade him, our proposal would probably have to start with Guzman and Billingsley....ouch.

Finally and I think something that will drive this thread for the rest of the afternoon, someone asked Jim Callis the classic choice question, Ginger or Mary Ann and he picked Mary Ann. Without any scientific basis, to me Mary Ann has to win this poll but why. Is the cute girl next door quality, her ability to bake pies on a island, or do we just think that Ginger isn't all what she is cracked up to be?

As for Greinke, he's a really weird kid. You can listen to an interview with him here
http://tinyurl.com/s7dp7

He kind of sounds like an autistic person. As for Greinke the pitcher, he's special. He has a huge repertoire of pitches and definitely knows how to use them. He's very mature as a pitcher and kind of reminds of Greg Maddux the way he pitches. He's always mixing it up, trying to think along the same lines as the hitter. I'd give up a lot for him too (though I really doubt the Royals are going to trade him).

that could be my new mission this weekend.

But I'm off work today and my biggest other tasks today were doing my laundry and taking Casey to the vet.

And finding Casey.

I'm alone at my computer, and you just got an audible laugh out of me. good times.

1st- Nomar versus Choi/Saenz - Nomar has had 321 and 230 at bats the last two years. He hit 283/320/450 with 9 home runs. The Choi/Saenz combo hit 30 home runs with about a 250/330/465 line. As Jon has pointed out numerous times the combo of Choi/Saenz was very effective in 2005. Saenz didn't do anything he hasn't done before except get more at bats which helped his counting stats. Other then 2001 he has slugged over 460 every year of his career. Nomar will have to dig back to 2003 and stay healthy to be an upgrade.<<

I am sorry, but if Nomar is a healthy, this is so big of an upgrade, it is not even funny.
By the way, yes, last year was an abberation for Saenz. He had not had so much as 45 RBIS before, and not even so much as 12 HR before.

In Oakland, he had similar at bats in 2001, and only had 9 HR, and 32 RBIs.

Also, there is a difference between Mueller and Jose, first, Mueller has not been on a decline, Jose was a on a decline the previous years. Also, Mueller played 150 games last year, I don't think you should question his health.

SLG %

2003: .540
2004: .446
2005: .430

Let's note this day 3/1/2006, the day Eric Gagne said that money won't be an issue, it will be the old familiar respect card.

Mueller's BARISP

2005: .338
2004: .231
2003: .331

He had a heart deficiency in 2004, but he's still at the top of his game.

Yep, Sickels followed my lead on Guzman.

He'll be traded next year, I suspect.

When you get more at bats, counting stats like home runs and RBIs tend to go up.

Garciaparra would have to go back to his year 2000 production for him to be anything better than a 50 point OPS upgrade (and that's basically fantasy by itself.)

And if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a pushcart.

Nomar has to go back to 2003 performance, his age 29 year, to post a line better Choi/Saenz did last year. That's a risky proposition, taking the easy doubles off the Green Monster away (there goes the SLG), and two years of injury to boot. And he's 32. His BP forecast is to hit .750 OPS. You are too bullish on Nomar, too bearish on Choi/Saenz. At least, that's what the data tells us.

By the way, yes, last year was an abberation for Saenz.

True. His OPS was down to .805.
2001 was the only time Saenz didn't post an OPS over .820 since he made the bigs to stay. True, it was also the only time he got the AB he got last year. But the people around here are suggesting a platoon of Saenz and Choi. Choi would get more AB in the platoon, in facing RH SPs, and thus you won't expect Saenz to get more than 250 PA (since presumably, Aybar will back Mueller at third, not Saenz). Historically, he's put up .838, .915, .822, .857 in years with that level of PA.

and only had 9 HR, and 32 RBIs
RBI: please research why more and more, no one is looking at RBI as a meaningful statistic.

Player 1 Avg. 125
Player 2 Avg. 114

Clearly, one of these men is the Rock of Gibraltar.

When was the last time Nomar was healthy?

Mueller has not been on a decline
Also, Mueller played 150 games last year, I don't think you should question his health.

OPS
2003: .938
2004: .811
2005: .799

Also, Mueller has played in fewer than 120 games in three of the last five seasons.

2003 was a carrer year for Bill. And no, he is not an OPS machine. But in terms of batting average, and overall hitting, he has not declined.

In simple terms, what good is batting average? Is the point of the game to have more hits, or is it to score more runs? OPS correlates more closely to run production than does batting average.

As has been pointed out twice now, Mueller is on a decline.

On Pluto

All hitters are "OPS guys." For comparison, Ichiro has had better than an .800 OPS in three of his five MLB seasons.

How do you deduce that Mueller will play 250 games, considering he's done so only twice in the last five years and has averaged 114 in his career?

Well, those easy doubles that go away in fenway would be home runs in dodger stadium. The man's carrer OPS is .911. Thats a safer bet than HEE-SEOP SAENZ.

Sabremetrics in LA is DONE. Face it, it did not work. It's not HOW you win ball games, it is winning. You all like to look at individual statistics, but baseball is a team game. It's all about the unit, and this is a good unit.

It's almost as if you would rather have games played on your computer, and won the right way. If a team only won 50 games, but won with THIRTY BOMBS, and BBs, then you are satisfied. But if we win 95 games this year, with bottom of the leauge home run totals, top of the leauge SB totals, defense, and the best bullpen in baseball (that's how the angels won last year), you are questioning it.

huh?

Well, those easy doubles that go away in fenway would be home runs in dodger stadium.

You do realize DS has a park effect that minimizes XBH (a presumed strength for Nomar & Mueller)?

"Old...I mean BttE has tryed to convince you Bill Mueller shouldn't be here. He says he's declining and yadda yadda yadda.What are his motives? Don't know. Never have. But I will disprove his theories on Bill Mueller on many levels.

Once again, for all who aren't paying attention . . . .

Hypothesis: Bill Mueller is declining, mediocre, and is a bad contract.

Test:
Mueller's career OPS is .798 -- He posted a .799 OPS in '05.
Mueller's career BA is .292 -- He hit .295 in '05.
Mueller's career OBP is .373 -- He recoreded a .369 OBP in '05.
Mueller's career SLG% is .425 -- He posted a .430 SLG % in '05.
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Per full season Mueller has averaged 89 runs / 35 2B / 3 3B / 11 HR / 65 RBI. In '05 Mueller had 69 runs / 34 2B / 3 3B / 10 HR / 62 RBI.
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Removing Mueller's obvious career year of 2003, Mueller has posted OPS' of .797 / .778 / .750 / .721 / .851 / .752 / .811 / .799
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Mueller's numbers before he turned 30 years old: .290 Ave. / .370 OBP / .395 SLG% / .765 OPS
Mueller's numbers since he turned 30 years old: .295 Ave. / .375 OBP / .457 SLG% / .832 OPS
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Mueller's OPS' by season before he turned 30 years old: .810 / .797 / .778 / .750 / .721
Mueller's OPS' by season since he turned 30 years old: .851 / .752 / .938 / .811 / .799
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Mueller ranked #7 out of 20 qualified third basemen in MLB during '05 in OPS; Ahead of Hank Blalock and Eric Chavez.
Result: Test Inconclusive at best

Test:
Among those 20 qualified third basemen and disqualifying Ensberg and Wright who have not even reached arbitration years, and Blalock, Mora, and Inge who are under arbitration contracts, and Hillenbrand that I can not find figures on:
A. Rodriguez....$20.5M
A. Beltre..........$11.75M
T. Glaus..........$11.25M
E. Chavez........$11.0M
A. Ramirez.......$10.5M
M. Lowell...........$8.0M
B. Mueller.........$4.95M
D. Bell..............$4.5M
A. Boone..........$3.75M
V. Castilla........$3.2M
Result: Test Failed

Test's #1, #2, and #3 show Mueller is clearly not declining, WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF HIS CAREER. He is, if anything the model of consistency. Of course if you want to take things out of context and show only the last three years of his 10 year career, one could attempt to argue that Mueller is declining -- however, there would be no statistical relevance to the assertion whatsoever.

Test's #4 and #5 actually show that Mueller has improved over the second half of his career. His batting average, OBP, SLG %, and OPS are all improved since he turned thirty.

Test #6 shows that Mueller ranks in the top third of ML third basemen in terms of offensive production. I think it's a stretch to call him mediocre, but that I'll leave for each to make his/her own judgement call. Question though, you would term Chavez and Blalock as mediocre? That's a mighty looooooong stretch . . . .

Test #7 shows Mueller is clearly a relative bargain at 3B. Minus those like Mora, Blalock, Wright, and Ensberg who would easily command more than Mueller on the FA market were they available, that leaves Inge, Boone, Castilla, and Bell in his neighborhood. Mueller is at the high end of that group salary wise, but seems to me he's at the high end of that group production wise as well. And taken in context of where he falls production wise among third basemen . . . well, there really is no logical or statistical way to say his is a bad contract.

Now, unless I'm missing something, I've looked at Mueller WITHIN THE WHOLE CONTEXT, and have found all your opinions to be false. So have the opinion that you don't like him, his production, and/or his contract, but could you please stop declaring Mueller to be declining, mediocre or the owner of a bad contract. It's simply not true."

Great, now we have a stat for estimated force of a hit.

What I mean by that, is that a solid line drive that would not go over the green monster, would go over a smaller DS fence.

Ok, so I think differently. But c'mon, what have you got to say to the poster I've quoted. He basicallly killed your theory of Mueller declining. You don't have to be right, you can admit you're wrong once in a while. I've been wrong many times before, and I will admit when I'm wrong.

I qouted some one, and said so before pasting it. That's not plagirism, I told you it wasn't my doing.

Umm, I think that is the definition of declining

Hey Nate.

this is getting on the verge of ridiculous. someone please stop him. i dont have the inner strength not to debate with him without using language that would be in appropiate for this community.

I allready did that with him on dodgers.com
LOL!!!!!!!

But I do wonder if he's ever heard of a bell curve.

I just used your sabr argument against you. Do you have any response to attempt to prove me, and that poster wrong?

Hey thinkingblue.

I will give you credit for coming here to learn some things, can't say that for the rest of the people on dodgers.com.

But that's IF you came here to learn some things.

No, Mueller had one carrer year in 03, was injured in 04, and basically went back to the same old Mueller in 05.

Most people on dodgers.com just accept the mainstream media's take on things concerning baseball(actually i'd argue most people in general accept the mainstream media take on everything, but that's another subject).

I would like to know what other baseball fans think yes. However, another reason is that discussions happen faster here, it has been a bit slow at dodgers.com.

I would like to know what other baseball fans think yes. However, another reason is that discussions happen faster here, it has been a bit slow at dodgers.com.

3 for 3. Grady could Tracy this one up in '07, but as of now, it's not bad.

This community is a many and varied community that does not like to be pigeonholed by various lazy thinkers whose only rhetorical strategy is to construct strawmen. There were a lot of people here who felt one way or another about Mueller's signing, just as they felt one way or another about Furcal, Garciaparra, Lofton and down the line. In my own case, I came from believing that Colletti was the second coming of the devil himself to being extremely pleased that he had signed usable players to short-term contracts, and spared the minor leagues (the horrible Baez trade notwithstanding). Such gives us contending ability in the short-term, and hopefully, the opportunity to build a long-term Braves, A's, Twins-like successful system.

You will find that when it comes down to it, you are making a category mistake. People are not making judgments about your points based on whether they are right or wrong -- the problem is that they are sloppily made, painted with an embarrassingly broad brush, and made in the context of a winner-take-all death match with sabermetrics that exists only in your own mind. You just did it again.

Now, take what you learned from the person who made that Mueller post (it's telling that you had to take it from another source), and try to reason like that. If you stick with us, you may find your understanding of baseball richer for being able to apply concepts you are unfamiliar with to the worldview you advocate. That is certainly what happened to me; I am nobody's idea of any kind of stathead.

And you will be more successful here than you have heretofore been. I find it doubtful that this will happen, but I've been wrong before.

Well good.

The majority at dodgers.com seem uninformed, like they just hang out there and there only.
LOL!

#7 Mueller------Loduca
#8 Navarro------Cora
#9 Pitcher------Pitcher
#1 Furcal-------Roberts
#2 Lofton-------Izturis

Scraptacular. Now the 2003 crew managed an 85-77 record bc it had the best pitching ever, and Gagne was 55-55 in save chances. This despite finishing dead last in runs scored.

DePo cleaned up this mess, but I guess our friend here must have forgotten what 2003 was like.

Me thinks 2006 the team wont be so lucky.

Ouch! LOL!

Well, like Chuckpo and billynono have pointed out before, you can also argue that some people here only look at a consticted number of stats.

I don't really think this, but I also don't think that dodgers.com is dumb.

All I remember about Depo was 71-91.

Anybody wanna kick around some ideas about fantasy baseball drafts?

I have mine in about a month. I have a few thouhgts that i want to try out this year...

I'll throw out my thoughts if you guys want to join in this conversation.

cr

Lofton is like 39.
Mueller is 35.

Honestly, thinkingblue sounds like what a Giants fan would sound like, if they were defending that team.

Park effects and age do matter. Its no secret its alot easier to hit in Fenway park, and its alot harder to hit as you get older.

As for winning with pitching, defense, and stolen bases. The defense has been worsened. We've downgraded CF, SS, and 1st base. Those are pretty important defensive positions.
Pitching...the staff reeked last year. Adding Tomko/Seo doesnt change things much.
Stolen bases have little value when it comes to scoring runs.

The Angels led the major leagues in stolen bases and singles last year and BAwRISP. However, they only finished like 11th in total runs scored. Isnt it all about scoring as many runs as possible? If the best offense is a small ball offense (like you say), then shouldnt they've led the league in scoring? They didnt.

That was a team mostly built by Dan Evans. And the dodgers faded after trading Lo Duca. I know, it will help us now, but it really put a hole in our line up the second half of the season.

Also, we are not downgraded at CF. Lofton is a 4 time gold glove winner. And we are not downgraded at short, Furcal has a stronger arm.

see, it's this kind of bias that drives me up the wall. Yeah, the '05 team stunk....let's compare the injuries on the '05 team to the ones on the '03. I'll GUARANTEE that '05 was significantly worse. If you didn't like Depo, fine. But please acknowledge that we had an abnormal amount of injuries. Heck, Jim Tracy was arguably the worst manager in baseball last year in my eyes but even I don't blame him for our record because of the insane amount of injuries.

In fact, I believe we had more "DL Days" than any other team in the majors....

Somewhere Bill Plaschke, John Kruk, and Harold Reynolds are lighting up some stogies by the fire, and saying to themselves..."Yes Sir...."

This team isnt built around any one ingrediant. Theres spead at the top, decent OBP% top to bottom, a few bigbats in the middle, and a few potential bigbats.

Even you oldbear have to realize that this lineup is much more WELL ROUNDED than the 03 lineup.

Actually, that's pretty funny, I'll give you that.

you can also link to earlier comments by putting square brackets around the comment number [ 295 ] (but without the spaces before and after the brackets).

Man drop the labels like gold glove and all star, izturis was both and that says it all.
LOL!!!!!
-------------------------------------------
Individual stats vs team impared stats
obp and slg vs rbi's
k/9 and w/9 vs era

Good point Daniel. That's what I like about Ned, he like balance. Not all OPS, and not all putting pressure.

Being a long time reader, Im getting the impression that a good majority of you guys seem to think that you're better than other Dodger fans because you believe in certain things and dont believe in others.

Than, when someone comes, sticking up for an alternative method of thinking, its nothing but harsh statements, personal attacks, and lambasting of the intruder.

What good is this site if everyone agrees?

I really dont think Jon intended for this site to be an "us vs. them" type of thing, rather a forum for inteligent discussion by Dodger fans and baseball fans in general.

My personal opinion:
You cant win the just sabermetrics, and you cant win with just heart and charicter. You have to have the right set of players that all do their individual job to the best of their ability. Not every slot in the line up should be filled by the highest OPS available. The great teams have always had a great mix of everything. Spped and OBP at the top, Power and SLG in the middle, and a mix of good average and good power through the bottom.

Seriously, its about winning. And were all here for the same reason. I just think its unfair the way some people are treated here for thinking a different way.

My .02 cents...

Labels like all star and gold glove win ball games.

WOW, i give up, there's no hope.

so i guess lance carter is the difference between last place and world series champions.

Why must you deem it your own personal mission to make everyone think like you?

A bit socialist, no?

www.home.nethere.com/dodgerblue6/4mlb/post-rating.gif

Finally something we all can agree with...in one way or another...

*No hope of what?

Why must you deem it your own personal mission to make everyone think like you?

A bit socialist, no?*

See that's what i mean about people from dodgers.com, stuck in the mainstream.

All i was doing was giving someone info outside of what the mainstream media shoves down peoples throats, and i'm the one that's socialist, i would think the mainstream media is the one that is socialist.

Anyways, out of respect for jon, i'm outta here.

and this one was my favorite line of the day:

"And if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a pushcart."

brilliant.

The difference of opinion is why I read this site. Most of you guys think in a different way than I do, and Im curious and interested about what you have to say.

319 - I think Dan Evans doesnt get criticized for 2005 because it really wasnt Dan Evans team. I mean, the third baseman and half of 1st base and a few starting pitchers were the only Dan Evans acquisitions that made any impact.

But, I also think DE is unfairly praised for the 2004 season. Most of the players Evans acquired had disapointing years. The division was one because guys like Werth, Finley, and Beltre (one of the few Evans men who worked out), not because of Roberts, Green, or Izturis.

thinkingblue keeps posting his opinions as facts and when that is pointed out to him he responds with more opinions.

A Great Man once said "You are entitled to your own opinions but not to your own facts."

No one is forcing thinkingblue to continue to post his opinion and I think there is an obligation to refute his "facts" with actual facts.

Second, it's hard to expect any one to dig through garbage in hopes of finding a point. There are differing points of view between virtually any two posters here. Most of those differences are aired out in respectful, intellectually defensible ways. But not all opposition is worth engaging. I'd bet the highest correlation, though, to engaged arguments is a reasonable tone. TB hasn't exhibited any capacity for that. And, since he popped in to town three days ago, he hasn't earned any benefit of the doubt.

I'm not going to endorse every nasty thing said about him (and I'm not proud of the nasty things I've said to him, except the ones in this comment, which I'll stop being proud of at some future point). But it doesn't seem as though he's been unfairly picked on.

Its picking on someone for the Point they're trying to prove, or for even trying to prove the point in the first place, that I disagree with.

Thats my beef. My only mistake was being too general at who I directed my "rant" at. Its only the few posters who decided to make a running joke of TB beliefs who Im angry at.

Ok I can understand that then.

I have a problem with an explanation of anything that looks like magic. Where there's a mechanism, some attempt even, to show the path from A to B, I'm willing to listen. Where no attempt is made to draw the line, it's almost always because there isn't any line.

There is simply no option other than to back up assertions with regard to projecting baseball performance other than statistics. The interesting, educational debates on this site -- which are many and sometimes heated -- involve the relative merits of which stats matter in making such projections. Anyone who complains that "statheads" are thwarting his arguments is simply admitted he doesn't have any facts to support what is a purely emotional reaction.

To make up an extreme example, let's imagine there's a player named Zed who got a hit in only one game all season, but it happened to be the one game you attended. Zed's hit was a glorious, orgasmic hit that won the game, and and your 11-year old son caught it to boot and the thrill of the experience cured his lifelong blindness. Let's say Zed was a nice guy, too. Owned 50 kitties. And signed your son's ball.

You still would not be able to argue that Zed is a great player based on "I saw him do something great," if in fact his OPS was .100. But a lot of people try, including many highly respected baseball pundits who fill the airwaves with misleading analysis and never are accountable for it when their forecasts fail to pan out.

Yeah, baseball is a team game, and human factors do matter somewhat, but history is filled with examples of teams whose members disliked each other, and whose manager was a drunken dolt, but because of the combined skills of the players-- measured statistically-- the team still finished first. The A's and Yankees of the 1970s are two good examples of what I'm talking about. The talent level was so high, it didn't matter that the players were all a-holes, nor did it really even matter that they were mismanaged.

Disagree. Give me 9 Albert Pujols. Or 9 A-Rod's. Accepting anything less than the highest OPS is settling for someone that simply cant create as many runs as the other guy.

The 'balance' argument is basically a way to justify (without statistical date to back it up), a reason for the Loftons, Repkos and Izturis' to be in the lineup. It makes no logical sense.

My idea of a 'balanced' lineup entails no holes. Meaning every player OPS's a certain amount.

340+ posts, and nobody has stood up for Ramon Martinez II.

(Deep breath...)

A balance of guys with and without OPS is a balance of guys with and without offensive ability.

Can someone come up with a way to quantify posting ability?

[ 285 ]. Steve, you sure did. [ 277 ] is as well written a post as I've ever seen at DT. As I said once before, I hope K&E is not wasting your talents in the transactional department or on some endless document production. You should be writing MSJ or appellate briefs.

Ratt, tell the truth, is Zed supposed to be Shawn Green and the 11 year old kid, my daughter. ;-)

Daniel, I am no stat head. Baseball for me is a fun thing and I don't want to get too scientific. That being said, among other things, I come here to learn about other approaches to the game, including stats. I take a little from one person and a little from another and my mix is constantly changing depending on my mood. For example, I know all the short-comings of Shawn Green but he is still one of my favorite players and others here tolerate my baised arguments even though they are full of holes. There is a lot of tolerance here, but lets be fair, TB is as entrenched and unyielding in his views as those you accuse here.

I hear ya.

When I read that I slammed my head against my desk. I think the neighbors heard it.

It's fine and dandy to say that line-up order doesn't matter, but you have to admit that at the top spot in the order, there aren't many chances of knocking people in, and by having good hitters behind you, all you need is to get on base.

Thinkingblue on the other hand, has had sweeping generalatizations backed not by statistical evidence, but by theory.

Theories such as..
Choi has a hole in his swing
It's no secret that when you can put pressure on the defense, and get clutch hitting, you win.
Labels like all star and gold glove win ball games.
And the dodgers faded after trading Lo Duca.
am sorry, but if Nomar is a healthy, this is so big of an upgrade, it is not even funny.
*Mueller ise not an OPS guy.
Also, we are talking about now. And now, Mueller can play 150+ games.*

If you cannot quantify an argument, then said argument should be deemed pure conjecture, and treated appropriately.

"...and another thing... the book can also be used as... a hat."

Ouch. I'm putting a patent on this word. Webster's owes me the residuals.

Perhaps the answer lies in this equation:

generalization + generality= generalatization....

Danica, where art thou?

If you calculate those home run estimates and add 10 from various other sources, the 134 home runs would leave the Dodgers 23rd in home runs in 2005 (12th in the NL).

As a point of comparision, the Twins, who scored less runs than the Royals, also hit 134 home runs.

Look, I agree. There isnt a stat to prove what Im trying to say. You cant measure good baserunning, and sound fundamentals, and good stratagy. But, they still should be taken into account when assembling a TEAM

Sure I'd love to have 9 Albert Pujols, but Im trying to be realistic.

You confuse balance with lack of talent. Im not trying to excuse Repko and Izturis. They arent good. I agree that OPS is a very good tool to measure hitting and run production, but it cant be the only tool used to build a team on.

335 - What's an orgasmic hit like? Id rather not experience one crammed in with a bunch of sweaty men in the reserve level, during a day game in August. Thats just me.

351 - But theres no way the teams Henderson played for during his prime do so well if Pujols is leading off. How many less RBIs do Canseco or Joe Carter have as many RBIs, if Pujols is on first when they double to the gap? Both stratagies have their advantages, and both have their flaws.

Take this one step further. For the sake of argument lets assume stolen bases have some type of larger value that all of us fail to acknowledge.

Where are all these steals going to come from? Just speculating on our lineups current age/trends.

Furcal-50 steals at most
Lofton- 20 steals at most maybe?
Drew- is he a threat to run?
Kent- is he a threat to run?
Mueller- is he a threat to run?
Nomar-is he a threat to run?
Cruz- is he a threat to run?
Navarro--is he a threat to run?

How much faster are the Dodgers?
How much better defensively are the Dodgers?
How much better is their pitching?

I dont see big differences in anything from them last year. I do see a substantial drop off in power and patience however.

The 2005 Dodgers had Jose Valentin, Bradley, and Choi/Saenz which they reasonably expected to hit 70HR's collectively.

Lofton, Mueller, and Nomar are going to hit how many? Maybe 35.

I see the expected decrease in power, much more dramatic than the supposed increase in speed. And how much more important is SLG%than Stolen bases?

Have we in fact reached the point of comparing stolen bases and home runs?

329. The rhetoric has reached the level it has deserved to reach.

Indeed.

Research I conducted based on LAT's inadvertent clue in 348 has uncovered (what I believe to be) a revealing insight into why you rejected my motions to put (1) Jeff Kent and (2) Jeff Hornacek's Annoying Free-throw Cheek Rub, respectively, on the Enemies List.

I believe the key is to have a standard baseline of OPS. Mine would be ideally .800 for every position minus catcher (since very few catchers can achieve that). Ideally you'd have no holes in the lineup.

I understand your theory about getting guys with higher OBP's in relation to their SLG more at bats and higher in the order. OBP is of course more important than SLG. No argument here. HOw much so, I'm not sure?

If say Jose Hernandez OBP's .300, SLG's .500... And a Bill Mueller OBP's .400, SLG's .400...I'd want Bill Mueller getting more at bats and Jose Hernandez batting near the bottom.

But I'm a firm believer in there being a baseline level of OPS a player should maintain to remain in the lineup. Where you hit in said lineup, could certainly be determined based on OBP/SLG split though.

Are you suggesting that the Blue Jays would have scored more runs with Ricky Henderson in their lineup and batting 1st, than Albert Pujols in their lineup, and batting 1st?

I'd have to disagree. Henderson did have a great OBP and you're right, its entirely possible that Carter/Canseco dont drive in as many runs without him on base. However, Pujols 45hr power potential and ability to SLG's the ball, would have produced more runs overall. He'd be knocking himself in more often (via the Homer), and the 7,8,9 hitters that would have gotten on as well. Moreso than Ricky Henderson.

PS: Yes, no Ramon Martinez please. Aybar, Robles, Choi, Guzman, I'll take any combination of any of those, instead. Thank you.

Yes things like speed, baserunning, fundamentals, etc. may have little impact indivually over the course of the season. I agree, is a speedy line-up going to win you 15 more games? Probably not. But you take the few games that each of these things add/subtract, and the wins/losses start to add up.

Am i saying that a player with a good OPS with less speed should be benched in favor of a fast player with a significantly worse OPS? No. But say player A is OPSing .831 while stealing 4 bases. Player B is OPSing 7.82, while stealing 47 bases? is extra .049 in OPS going to account for as many runs as the extra runs and scoring opportunities Player B is going to provide for the rest of the line-up?

I disagree. Yes, Pujols averages 25 more Homeruns a year than Henderson and strikes out a tad bit less, but henderson walks 33 more times a season, Grounds into 10 less double plays, and steals 68 more bases than Pujols. Are the few runs that Pujols provides with his slugging capabilities going to compensate for the runs he takes away by hitting into more double plays, and walking less? I think that canseco and Carter drive in significantly more runs with henderson on base, enough to compensate for the extra SLG% that Pujols provides.

Or you could just take this line of reasoning to the extreme and just build a lineup of 9 Barry Abdul's, watch the run scored totals increase exponentially as you cannot pitch around any of them.

Not that I'd ever dare suggest that on a Dodger blog...

So, not much difference. Assuming the runner never gets caught. You dock .44 for each CS, so if the 50 SB taker got caught 10 times (which is reasonable), that speedster is down to 5.6 runs, a little more than half the mixed power hitter's advantage.

ZED!ZED!ZED

What would Zed's last name be? he should have a profile and we can start trade rumors about him..... Or maybe I need a girlfriend.

Thank you thank you thank you.

Please, let's have a better day tomorrow. Bob's cat, Steve's list, Victorian literature, NY neighborhoods. I'll take anything but this.

In fact, the only thing I care about is Bob's cat. I don't want to read 372 comments to find out what happened to him. Where was Casey?

how long do the Lofton and Cruz experiements last if they're not playing up to par? This is something I've been wondering since it's entirely realistic that neither repeat their performance last year.

And if say, Cruz isn't getting the job done, who replaces him? That's what's scaring me about this team right now. Eithier? Guzman? This outfield situation is a bigger question mark to me than the starting pitching....

BTW, just set the Tivo for Fri Dodger v. Braves game, Sat's D'Back v. W. Sox game and Sunday's Giant game. Sweet!

Henny Youngmen I ain't.

Clippers win-they hold NO/OKC to a record low 16points in the second half.

So the .05 slugging advantage is worth between 8.7 and 9.4 runs. I know it was just a hypothetical that probably nobody cared about, but I don't want to leave it wrong.

More important is how well Guzman hits in spring games.

"When his bat is ready, you make his glove ready," Jauss said. "He could be proficient in a month."*

Maybe we do have something to watch this spring. And isn't nice to have the local paper pick up on this thread.

Sources say that meeting did not go well and that she wanted to trade him, although Frank McCourt denied it."
I think we know who wears the pants in the family. This also tells us who was behind getting rid of Milton Bradley.

If I were the Ja[y]sons, I might be concerned.

Apparently, it's better to go to Dodger Spring Training than Nationals Spring Training. Here is a comment left on the Washington Post Nationals Spring Training Blog abut yesterday's game (edited to add punctuation):

Last year for me as a season ticket holder. Was at the game, one of the few that was. $3.oo for a soda $3.50 for a bag of peanuts and $3.oo for a bottle of water. $5.00 a beer $6.00 for amberbock draft. $5.00 to park. The list goes on and on. We play Korea and panama check out the dodgers schdule - back to dodger town for me.

Another read of course is that its better to enjoy life rather than be miserably grumpy . . .

http://tinyurl.com/r5oh7

Contra the guy above who thought Dodger Spring Training is cooler than Nationals spring training, is this note from the nationals.com beat reporter: "Actor Mickey Carroll was spotted at the game on Wednesday. He is making a tour of Spring Training camps. Carroll is best known for being a munchkin in the 'Wizard of Oz.'"

Top that Hollywood!

1. I can only pay for one month and then cancel right?
2. Do they have the games available to watch after they're completed?
3. Are there any blackouts?

Thanks

I wouldn't read to much into the for-public-consumption remarks about Guzman.

Pumping up the prospects is part of the spring rite. Even more easily done when you have so many questions in the outfield.

http://tinyurl.com/fjlvq

"He told us he'll be back by Sunday," Little said before the Dodgers opened their exhibition schedule against the Atlanta Braves. "He'll throw on the side Monday and pitch in a game Wednesday. He feels great."

--

LOL

It is true, the dodgers were .500 after that trade.

Of course, There are going to be more home runs coming form different sources. That is just a reasonable expectation from the current players in the starting line up.

The angels won 95 ball games putting pressure on the defense, and leading the leauge in clutch hitting. And yes, in 2004, the dodgers only half their games the rest of the way.

The 'balance' argument is basically a way to justify (without statistical date to back it up), a reason for the Loftons, Repkos and Izturis' to be in the lineup. It makes no logical sense.

My idea of a 'balanced' lineup entails no holes. Meaning every player OPS's a certain amount*

The problem with that argument is, there is no way you can afford 9 A-Rods or Pujols.

Where are all these steals going to come from? Just speculating on our lineups current age/trends.

Furcal-50 steals at most
Lofton- 20 steals at most maybe?
Drew- is he a threat to run?
Kent- is he a threat to run?
Mueller- is he a threat to run?
Nomar-is he a threat to run?
Cruz- is he a threat to run?
Navarro--is he a threat to run?

How much faster are the Dodgers?
How much better defensively are the Dodgers?
How much better is their pitching?

I dont see big differences in anything from them last year. I do see a substantial drop off in power and patience however.

The 2005 Dodgers had Jose Valentin, Bradley, and Choi/Saenz which they reasonably expected to hit 70HR's collectively.

Lofton, Mueller, and Nomar are going to hit how many? Maybe 35.

I see the expected decrease in power, much more dramatic than the supposed increase in speed. And how much more important is SLG%than Stolen bases?

Have we in fact reached the point of comparing stolen bases and home runs<<

Well oldbear, considering that the top two people in the line up you have stole more bases than the ENTIRE dodger's roster last year, yes, I'd say that is an improvement.

The dodgers are better defensively, they have an actual solid defensive third baseman, and have not dropped anywhere else.

Pitching is better, we don't have a hole at the five spot.

Power and patience... we had an awful line up in 05. You had at least 3 big holes at the bottome of the line up in Valinetin, Choi, and Phillips.

Again, you are looking at constricted individual numbers. Also, Bradley's carrer high in HR was 20, Valinetin was moving to dodger stadium, and Phillips, nuff said with him.

This team is just so much better as an entire unit. You just don't wanna admit it because you still have not let Depo go.