Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Wow, the rapprochement between Jim Tracy and Paul DePodesta knows no bounds, huh?
From The Associated Press, via Baseball Think Factory:
For the past five years, no team in the National League has been less patient at the plate than the Pittsburgh Pirates.
But manager Jim Tracy is seizing every opportunity to try to change that, and he's getting immediate results. ...
"I'm not advocating we take the first pitch every time we walk up there," Tracy said. "But, if you're going to take a swing at a first pitch, have it be a really good swing. If we keep preaching that, there won't have to be a whole lot said if you make a weak out on a marginally bad first pitch. It's not the way you play winning baseball." ...
Tracy pushed patience at the plate while with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and has made it a priority in the early part of spring training. During batting practice, he applauds when he sees a hitter taking a pitch out of the zone. During games, he is at the top step to congratulate anyone displaying his preferred approach.
Can a trade of Hee Seop Choi to Pittsburgh be far behind?
I really don't mean this to be snide - I know some will take it that way - but I am starting to expect to read that it was Jim Tracy who invented the vaccine for polio.
---
"During batting practice, he applauds when he sees a hitter taking a pitch out of the zone. Other things Tracy applauds include home runs, stolen bases, and having read Tracy Ball."
"Am I advocating we take the first pitch every time we walk up there?," Tracy said. "No, But, if you're going to take a swing at a first pitch, have it be a really good swing. If I was to tell you that we will keep preaching that, then could there be a whole lot said if you make a weak out on a marginally bad first pitch. No, there isn't much you can say. It's not the way you play winning baseball, I can tell you that." ...
Thanks, Cap'n Obvious.
However, at the same time I see tremendous excitement with respect to Mr. Guzman although his minor-league numbers are decidedly pedestrian (never posted a 900 OPS at any level.)
Can anyone explain the statistical basis for all of the Guzman excitement or is this excitement based on something else?
Beyond that, an .800-plus OPS at his young age in an environment that favors pitchers (Jacksonville) is cause for excitement.
Biggest concern right now with Guzman is ... wait for it ... plate discipline.
Add to that the fact that Guzman was a shortstop...
However his career numbers are 1600 at bats- 782 OPS. Such numbers do not merit the belief that we are looking at a future star. Granted, most of these numbers were compiled at a very young age but stack them up against another Dodger great, like say Jason Repko (1900 ABS, 749 OPS) and they hardly merit eager anticipation.
I suppose my question is this, from a purely statistical analysis how does one arrive at the conclusion that Guzman will be a star, or even solidly productive, but that Repko is not even a major-league player.
It is certainly true that one's evaluation of Guzman's offensive stats should include a consideration of his position. A given level of offensive production from an outfielder will likely be relatively less valuable than from a shortstop.
He can always move back to shortstop after he's traded.
With Guzman, the biggest thing is that he's younger. He's also got insane power potential. While he may never hit 40 HR a year, he is in that category that Repko isn't. He's one of those players that just has a higher ceiling than Repko does. I hate to use terms like that, but I think that's the reason everyone prefers Guzman to Repko...it's not that their numbers are THAT much different, it's that Guzman just seems to have more potential to become a masher while Repko doesn't...
Guzman OPSed .826 at Jacksonville at age 20; Repko OPSed .807 at Jacksonville at age 23. I think it's safe to imagine that if a 23-year-old Guzman were playing at Jacksonville, his OPS would dwarf what Repko did.
Nothing is guaranteed with Guzman, but his advancement at a young age is a huge part of the equation.
When I look at Guzman I see a power hitter, but the numbers don't really tell me that. In fact the numbers show 55 taters in 1600 at bats, which is pretty mediocre. Now granted, when I look at Repko I see anger at not sticking with a baseball career but that's another discussion.
My point is not that the two players are copmparable, they are obviously not. My question is- upon what rests the optimism for Guzman, surely it is not statistical. Could it be we are trusting the scouts, not to metnion our own lying eyes, on this one and not the numbers.
Sure Guzman.23 might surpass those numbers, but the stats show that his AA numbers decreased in his second season. This trend may not continue, but is thier any statistical reason to believe that this will be the case.
But I don't think we're ignoring statistics, we're just prioritizing, and recognizing trends. There are statistics that support that Guzman will have a good career. The jury's still out on whether it will happen - there is doubt. That's why we play. But I think it's been proven to be pretty unusual for a hitter to peak at age 19.
age is a statistic. we can see guzman has played against competition that is very advanced for his age. at age 19, guzman should have been in Low A ball but he was holding his own in AA.
in all honestly, IMO guzman wont become a vlad or a miguel cabrera. BUT, he has a very good chance of becoming a middle of the order bat for a contending team, a richie sexson offensive clone.
33 - I apologize for that remark. Were I a better writer you would have recognized my inappropriate frustration (not with this discussion but with the fact that I have all day to sit at home and ESPN is torturing me with college basketball.) In any case, I appreciate your responses and am most impressed with this site, author and commenters alike.
from his time in AA in 2004, his BA improved by 7 points and his ISOd improved from .45 to .64
his power did drop but it was well known that in the middle of the season guzman suffered a shoulder injury and that zapped his power.
so far, there has been no effects of the shoulder injury and his power is back.
If it is your pleasure to project Guzman to be no better than Repko, go ahead an do it. I predict (without any statistical basis) that you won't. That you think you came not to by way of some more highly enlightened process than looking at the players stats, well: you go girl. If you'd like to explain it, feel free to. There's some system, right? Please, share with us your grand wisdom. Wouldn't that be better than calling (by implication) names?
You ask: From a purely statistical analysis how does one arrive at the conclusion that Guzman will be a star, or even solidly productive?
Big difference between "will be a star" and "solidly productive."
I don't think I've seen any pure statistical analysis that concludes Guzman will be a star.
Sorry if I'm splitting hairs; I just think maybe the launching point overstated things a bit.
april- 80AB 288/387/525
may- 101AB 297/366/614
june- 93AB 301/363/409
july- 77AB 234/244/338
august- 91AB 308/364/462
With respect to your other assertions, (hypocrisy charge, Repko better than Guzman,) I would say only that reading comprehension is a very valuable skill and leave it at that.
Finally, I assume your final paragraph was a joke. One manner in which one can determine that player A is better than player B is through observation (in baseball they call it scouting.) However if one has very poor observational skills, or more importantly is not familiar enough with the game to know what to look for, cherry-picking stats that support your beliefs and ignoring stats that do not is probably your best bet.
"Can people be counted on to consider that a player who was not better statistically at 21 then 20, may not continue to improve. Or do we ignore statistics when it makes it easier to make ones point?"
-its pretty safe to assume that a player will get better during his early 20's, the vast majority of players do, even Jason Repko. A player show improvement even if his OPS drops because of luck and batting average. I would say that XBH%, walk rate and contact rate are much more telling of a players abilities than OPS, of course you still have to adjust for league, ball park, level and consider age at the same time.
the 3 viking jerseys i have- moss, culpepper, and mckinnie, two are now useless basically.
Just how sure, ducky? Sort of takes the steam out of your reading comprehension jibe, though, doesn't it? Pity.
the shoulder started acting up a lot in july yes. you can tell by the 77ABs, that he did in fact sit out a couple of games because of the shoulder.
Jon has asked that we back off. You have good points to make. Please do so without the attacks.
Re: 38. Apparently it was "well known" to a group other than those posting here, because since you said his power dropped due to injury, I think there are 2-3 posts that mention his power loss and ignore his shoulder injury. Shrug.
Nobody seriously believes that minor league numbers can be taken, as is, without regard to context, and super-imposed onto career projections. What is believed is that minor league numbers are a better basis for prediction than the imaginations of unnamed, unaccountable scouts. But accepting that in good faith might get in the way of a convenient narative about triumphalist stat geeks.
Also, the "scouts v. stats" point is being unnecessarily labored, for reasons that have been amply discussed before.
What kind of major league career awaits Joel Guzman?
probably a reggie sanders type career with a sexson like peak.
I realize I'm coming in late here, but why exactly do people assume that someone who believes in sabermetric principles is the equivalent of some computer robot that completely ignores everything else (scouting, etc.)? Thats not what sabermetrics is about IMO.
because bill plaschke says so. duh.
Most people see the jump from high-A to AA as significant because the opposition is much more polished; you see less raw atheletes. Also you see more career minor leaguers, guys age 26-28 years old. Even though they dont have much major league future, they are more polished and can provide a significant challenge to 20-21 year olds. In the low minors you dont see as many Ty Meadows' and Eric Hull's.
267/.344/.497
sexsons current career line
270/.352/.530
i think guzman is somewhere in between.
Reggie didn't reach 30-hr mark until he was 33 years old playing his home games in a hitters park (Az) during what appeared to be a strong offensive year (2001) for MLB. Sexson hit 45 HRS with an .889 OPS, also in 2001 (at age 26). He had a .927 OPS in 2003.
Richie, 31, is with his fourth franchise.
Reggie is with his seventh or eighth, I've lost count.
How does one access webcam? Is that a subscriber site?
Given that he was born on 11/24 he will prove equal to the analysts who have compared him to Juan Gone Gonzales without the steroids.
What he did at the age of 20 in AA shouldn't be so easily discounted. I think last year was a consolidation year given the huge jump from age 19 to age 20 and this year we will see that JtD does indeed have the ability to be a RH masher of the likes DS hasn't seen in the outfield since Pedro. I'm leaving Sheffield out of the conversation because as far as I'm concerned he never played for the Dodgers since I swore them off while he was on the team.
For the ones I've had:
Babita in San Gabriel on San Gabriel does a good one. I think it's the best Mexican restaurant in L.A.
Tacos Baja Ensenada in East L.A. on Whittier, east of Atlantic. Just a hole in the wall, but good ceviche and best fish tacos in L.a.
Reggie is having a great spring for the Marlins. Hoping he can at least end up having a career as a 4th/5th outfielder.
How does one access webcam? Is that a subscriber site?
ah i guess you werent here over the summer, we had "suns thoughts" practically every day before the dodger game was on.
http://www.southernguide.tv/
every suns homegame is televised.
Figures the best stuff is on the East side. Thanks Marty
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Man, the next time I come back to LA, I think I'm abandoning the family at my mom's house and just following Marty around for a week and eating.
When I was thinking of upside comp players, I thought of him.
I think D. Lee is a decent comp for Guzman, although I agree Guzman's profile is less favorable.
Lee's K ratios were pretty horrendous, too. At age 19: 130 ks in 502 ABs at high A; at age 20, 170 ks in 500 ABs in the Southern League (of course, Lee also hit 34 home runs that year and was more likely to draw walks -- 65 that year, 60 in 1997.)
One of the more interesting stories of 2006 was how Lee adjusted at age 29, backing off the plate and going the other way better. Guzman is going to strike out a ton as a young Marlin; it'll be interesting to see if he can make such an adjustment down the road.
but the suns should be exciting- kemp, raglani, hu, ruggianno, and by midseason, hopefully dewitt.
dsfan traded him, orenduff and martin for miggy cabrera a couple of days ago. hes just forgot to send in the papers to the commish's office.
my girlfriend and friends disowned me last summer because of it.
nate - you should have seen how many people actually held on to their brad johnson jerseys over the years, and then were able to pull them out and wear them last year.
i'm guessing that my friend's corey chavous jersey will soon be out of date...
Anyway, BP recently published their Top 100 Futures list, based entirely on the numerical projections of PECOTA. Joel Guzman ranked #9, just behind Jeremy Hermida and ahead of the Angels' Brandon Wood.
To be fair, Repko slugged .384 last year.
oh i know what you mean. my dad has a BJ jersey and he was estatic he was able to bust it out last year. The sports bar i go to has tons of vikings fans and i saw a bunch of old BJ jerseys.
i would say a lot of top prospects have crappy first years adjusting to big league pitching and with thier minor league numbers and pedigree, they should be able to bounce back in their sophmore year.
but lets hope he doesnt suck that bad in his first year.
Did you know that Repko hit 1 for 30 at PETCO last year? Neither did I.
Does this mean I can't wear a Dodgers jersey with "Gibson 23" on it?
Robles: 165 ABs, .255/.303/.315/.619
Repko: 127 ABs, .205/.268/.370/.638
Mystery Player: 158 ABs, .316/.391/.646/1.037
Choi: .316/.391/.646
Repko: .205/.268/.370
I'm Mini-Steve...
Guzman's line: 287/351/475
Average line for the 18 who weren't Guzman: 269/340/402.
AVG. line for the 3 SSs (not including Guzman): 227/302/295
AVG. line for the 8 OFs (not including Guzman): 291/351/473
Check that: Edwards OPSed .334.
this is what absolutely drove me up the wall about Tracy. That whole "Izturis looks like a lead off hitter therefor he should be" attitude just grinds my gears. Same goes for Repko.
If Lofton becomes an out machine, I sure hope Little moves him down to the 8th spot. If you look at Drew's numbers last year, I believe he had 15 HR with only 36 RBI. Of course, a problem was that he started out the year horrid, but another big problem is that no one was EVER on base when he came up. Yet, he was on pace to score about 100 runs because he was always on base. Go figure.
One...thing...?
if lofton becomes an outfield, i hope they call up ethier.
no one was EVER on base when he came up
Looks like Drew had roughly 190 PAs w/bases empty, and 120 w/runners on. He OPSed 200 points higher w/bases empty.
Nice use of the reference numbers.
The first step is admitting you have a problem.
With the understanding that putting pillars of salt in both first base and centerfield would have improved on last year for the Angels, how is it well known what Kotchman will do? What does PECOTA say and what is the spread from what you believe Kotchman's performance will be and why is PECOTA saying these things?
143. PECOTA likes Howie Kendrick more than Delmon Young
But with defensive stats, who knows, especially in the minors.
those are roughly what i would project for kotchman. i dont see anything wrong with those 1st yr projections.
That's what he hit when the Angels let him out of his cage last year. That's pretty good.
PCL: 237 EQA/417 AB
MLB: 296 EQA/142 AB
Aybar 2005
PCL: 226 EQA/449 AB
MLB: 330 EQA/105 AB
you can interpit that anyway you want, because I have no idea what either of these players will do this season.
I don't know the details of why Pecota makes low predictions on players with little major league service time, but I have seen it repeatedly and it has been mentioned on other blogs.
Color me quite skeptical. I don't think their methodology is figured out by a longshot. What they are trying to do is very difficult, and they are just not there yet.
Dallas is also a butcher at 3b and will probably be traded to make room for brandon wood.
Here is a short list of players who slugged over .500 playing for salt lake city:
Adam Riggs
Shane Halter
Chone Figgens
Robb Quilan
Larry Barnes
Good times.
http://tinyurl.com/e5xsp
http://tinyurl.com/pfspb
Guzman's line: 287/351/475
Average line for the 35: 274/340/412.
AVG. line for the 7 SSs (not including Guzman): 255/317/356
AVG. line for the 14 OFs (not including Guzman): 289/355/448
if it stops colletti from making future stupid trades, then i dont mind if that happens.
PS: who wants to come with me to PR and help Yuliesky defect? ill bring shovel and rope, you can bring the flashlight!
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/46188
Guzman's 2005 line: 287/351/475
Average line for the 84: 274/339/406.
AVG. line for the 15 SSs (not including Guzman): 250/313/345
AVG. line for the 27 OFs (not including Guzman): 283/345/427
I'm done, now.
I'm not a member of the BROTheR movement because there are worse options. I'd still like to see Young get the 5th OF spot, but since that doesn't come up, it probably won't happen. Young would likely be a more productive hitter, and since his long term projection is as a reserve, starting his clock earlier than one might prefer is less of a problem.
Anyway, even if the point above wasn't whatshisname's (his main point seemed to be stat geeks are hypocrites for rejecting his seemingly nonsensical proposition), I shouldn't have lost my cool, before or after seeing Jon's reminder not to. So. There you go.
What does BROTheR stand for? I get the gist that it's about making Jason Repko go away, but what's the acronym mean?
Unless "watching" means something like "interested in".
Go Ducks! Huck the Fuskies!
The line of the thread.
McClung threw well yesterday too, 3 scoreless against Atlanta. If those two can line up behind Kazmir then Tampa Bay can definitely make some noise this year, they put up 13 runs total in the two games I saw 'em play.
And Delmon Young is a scary scary kid. Elijah Dukes is even scarier.
What's the meaning behind Lucille II for Ramon Martinez II?
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