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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
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7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
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12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
George: What does she need? Maybe there's something that she needs.
Jerry: I think I heard her say something about a bench.
- Seinfeld, "The Deal"
Fairly or unfairly, people complained that former Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta did not prepare for the cataclysm of injuries that befell the team - that his spare tires were mostly flat. But it's worth looking to see if Ned Colletti has done much better with his bench, especially considering that his starting lineup will also feature players of questionable durability.
The assured returnees from the 2005 bench are Ricky Ledee and Olmedo Saenz. Joining them could be as many as three other holdovers, brought to you by the letter "R": Jason Repko, Oscar Robles and Cody Ross.
In addition, Sandy Alomar Jr. replaces Paul Bako - an exchange probably not worth analyzing, although it's worth noting that backup catcher wasn't a problem for the Dodgers last year.
Two other possible newcomers to the bench are:
So Ethier could be a step forward, but Martinez almost certainly will be a step back.
Five other players could make an immediate difference for Colletti's bench.
The best-case scenario bench for the Dodgers, barring a trade, would be something like this: Martin, Ledee, Cruz, Saenz, Choi and Aybar. Some might mix Robles or Ethier in there, and I don't think it would make much of a difference either way. In reality, though, the more likely bench will include Martinez, Repko and Robles/Ethier in place of Aybar and Choi, with Cruz the nominal left-field starter.
The 2006 Dodger bench might turn out to be better than the 2005 bench. But if that happens, it will be an improvement that is mainly the product of Dodger prospects becoming a year closer to readiness, rather than anything proactive Colletti has done. No matter where you fall on the DePodesta debate, it's hard to imagine that Colletti's two main outside acquisitions for the bench, Alomar and Martinez, excite you.
This isn't necessarily a big deal, and it certainly isn't the make-or-break criteria for Colletti's value as GM. It's just a what-if warning in case Murphy's Law remains in force at Dodger Stadium. If the Dodgers have another injury onslaught but survive, credit at this point would be due to the team's minor league executives.
I agree that this would be a great bench, but who would play SS? Aybar hasn't played SS in years. Robles would have to make until Izturis comes. I also don't expect Izturis to accept a role on the bench. That is something that Ned "the Communicator" Colletti is going to have to work out. Will Izturis be traded? Kent traded? I don't see Nomar moving to the outfield. I'd love to see the Dodgers package Izturis, Kent and a prospect or two for a big bat (preferably a LF). Aybar could then take over at 2B.
This whole Martinez thing scares me. It seems like one of those stereotypical "earns a spot in ST but can't hit the broad side of the barn in the regular season" types.
Again, the Choi debate has been talked about ad nauseum, but I don't see any reason he shouldn't at least have a bench spot.
I think one of the more interesting things is what we do at catcher. Looks like we're going with one young and one old...but four guys to fill those two spots.
I'm one of the few who thinks Guzman will be starting in Vegas...I'd actually really like to see Eithier make the squad over Repko...looks like we've got a lot of different scenarios.
Speaking of, what's the date all teams have to have their rosters finalized by?
The main thing with Repko is that if Cruz, Lofton and Drew start and Ledee is on the bench, his right-handed bat becomes more attractive to managment.
6 - Ruddy - "The Dodgers traded me for Daryle Ward" Lugo?
I don't know -- just curious to me that Abreu logging so much time at SS rather than at 2B.
More generally, I wonder if the excess of 3Bmen and 2Bmen -- and the move of Guzman to LF -- might mean that they're considering moving Abreu to SS. Abreu supposedly can handle the position, only not quite as well as Chin Lung Hu. Since Abreu is more advanced with the bat (and a better overall prospect than Hu), my thought is maybe they're planning on using Hu as SS at AA, and Abreu (once Izturis is healthy) at AAA. That'd leave room for LaRoche, Aybar, DeWitt and Delwyn Young to man 3B-2B at AA and AAA.
Just musings -- but wonder if there is more definitive knowledge out there on Abreu.
ledee
choi
saenz
repko
ramon or robles
is my guess
I'll be very disappointed if he makes the team over any of our young players. Aybar, Choi, or Robles.
Hopefully Ramon Martinez gets sent to Vegas.
No more Ex- Giants.
I believe Little has said that he might think about Nomar at SS if the situation arises.
I'm more skeptical about our OF than anything else. I'm assuming Drew will be there at least most of the time...if for no other reason than this is a potential contract year. But can Lofton repeat? Can Cruz repeat his good year? If those guys falter, we're in some SERIOUS trouble with our lineup....
There is a hole in the Dodger system. In 2005, the hole had settled firmly over the AAA team, but at least you could see to the other side of it on the AA team.
DePo didn't create the hole. Evans didn't create it. It was Malone. The Malone effect will finally leave us, I think, after this season. By next season, we'll have a solid major league team, with a bunch of likely prospects who could step in if necessary, and will be pushing their way into the major leagues. We'll be Atlanta, or Oakland, at last.
Colletti had less of a challenge than DePo, but I also think he did mostly okay in dealing with it. But the hole will hurt us this year. Not as bad as lasty year, but we'll feel it.
Also it occurs to me that a bunch of good high level prospects is not the same as a good bench for several reasons.
1. Nomar to have a healthy season and give us a 2003 season.
2. If Nomar can't be healthy then for Choi to make the team and break out his 250/400/500 line that we all think he could do given full time at bats.
3. Kent to only degrade around 10% and to actually be the silent presence in the dugout instead of the needler that we don't need.
4. Furcal to replicate 2004/2005
5. Mueller to replicate 2005. Not asking for much.
6. For Navarro to prove he's equal to the task of handling a pennant winning pitching staff at a young age while continuing his plate discipline.
7. JD Drew gives us 2004 or even 2001
8. Grittle realizes that Lofton's deal with the devil ran out in 2005 and moves Drew to CF and Cruz to RF and gives the LF job to JtD on June 1st. From June 1st on JtD gives us a Franceour imitation.
9. Cruz proves that Aug/Sept were for real and only regesses from 301/391/532 to 260/350/475.
1. Gagne stays healthy and becomes Trevor Hoffman since I think his velocity will never be what it was.
2. Our Killer B's (Baez/Broxton/Brazoban) dominate as setup man.
3. Kuo stays healthy and he and Hamulack become the best lefty twosome out of our bullpen since the days of Brewer/Perranoski or Howe/Forster
4. Once our Killer B's are in place and 3 prove to many then we trade one of them to a team desperate for a "closer" and get a better return then Jackson/Tiffany.
5. Lowe replicates last Aug/Sept but for the whole season.
6. Penny pitches 200 innings.
7. Odalis pitches 200 innings.
8. Seo is sensational.
And for the coupe de grace
Tomko hits Bonds in the 1st Giant game and Bonds in a roid rage charges the mound and takes him out for the season but in so doing Bonds also re-injures his knee and is unable to ever play again. This of course happens before Bonds can pass Ruth and the silver lining is that Billingsly becomes our 5th starter and proceeds to win Rookie of the Year just beating our JtD.
I'll let Oldbear take the negative view on each player and explain why we could be the worse team in the West which is also very possible if Colorado didn't inhabit the Western Division.
(Google him, folks)
It would be like Repko criticizing the way Jeff Kent hits...
Off the top of my head:
Kevin Appier for Mo Vaughn
Jason Bay for Steve Reed
Play along at home, it's fun and educational!
Not only was it the Kevin Malone/Evans era of free agent signings (I believe Evans signed Dreifort) but a decade and more of horrible drafts that only changed when Logan White arrived.
21 if we are going wishing like that, why not just wish Kuo and Broxton become a starting pair remeniscent of Koufax and Drysdale, and thus inspired, Greg Miller says "Hell, I can do this," and eventually out does them both.
Ironically, you said DePo made all the wrong choices yet you'd still have made some of the same moves: getting Finley, removing Encarnacion from the lineup, keeping Bradley, etc.
Last years bench was better:
C- Phillips
1b/3b- Saenz
SS- Perez
OF- Ledee
OF- Cruz
Utility- Robles, Aybar
I can remember watching S.Koufax vs. the Mets. Two pitches starting the same and yet so different. If you were looking for the curve--you could never hit the fastball. And if you were looking for the fastball, you couldn't hit it anyway.
And Fernando: At his best I loved to watch him throw 3 screwballs in a row for strikes.
Actually, the D's seem to spend a great arm to win the WS. Fernando was never quite the same after(was it 1981?) Same with Orel after 1988.
Other then the Tomko fantasy I think it is very possible to have all the other scenarios come true. Having Nomar rebound to a 2003 level is probably the biggest reach but everyone else is certainly capable of that kind of success.
34
Except we didn't start the year with Perez(DL) or Cruz(Arizona) or Robles(Mexican League) or Aybar(AAA).
C Lo Duca - 5.5
1B Green - 16
2B Kent - 8
SS Izturis - 3
3B Undefined - .33
LF Werth - .330
CF Bradley - 2.5
RF Finley - 7.5
OF Encarnacion - 4.5
SP Penny - 5
SP Moyer - 8
SP Perez - 3
SP Ishii - 3.2
SP Houlton? Lima? - .33
SP Dreifort - 5
RP Gagne - 10
RP Scrubs - 2
This leaves you with 1.5 million dollars to distribe between a bench and a third baseman. You also have no farm system. So I have to ask, how is this a good team?
In case you forgot, the 2004 Dodgers were three games over .500 entering June. It was really only one really good month.
Not winning the NL West would have been worse.
Depo left us with a 7-8-9 of Cora, Mayne, pitcher
I'd rather have 1 hole in the 8th spot, than Loduca, Encarnacion in the middle.
The Dodgers won the division without Penny being healthy. Some say DePodesta should have know that Penny was going to get hurt immediately. Evidence shows that it was an unusual/freak injury. If Penny had pitched the innings expected of him, he would have been more valuable than Lo Duca.
For all their problems at the bottom of the lineup in September and October 2004, the Dodgers' biggest problem was their starting pitching. That's what the Penny trade was designed to solve. Again, you don't have to agree with the move, but there was a legitimate purpose.
Why didnt that strategy work in 01,02,03 then? I think it was perfectly reasonable to try to win now (getting Finley), and build for the future (Penny, Choi, getting Nacion, Loduca off the books). It was the best move of both worlds.
The Dodgers needed Penny moreso than Loduca. They needed Finley moreso than the 3 B prospects they gave up.
And the best thing about it, was that Loduca and Mota werent going to be offered arbitration anyhow. They were gone either way at the end of the year.
Its no surprise Mota broke down. He had logged alot of innings and was also an older pitcher. Sure Brazoban probably did better than they expected, but I think DePo expected to have a healthy Penny (like the 2005) version, not the one that got a freak injury.
The 2004 trade was done to help the present and the future. What do the Marlins have to show for the trade? Arent they the real losers?
Which duo will be better in 2 years?
Penny-Perez
or
Cabrera-Bedard
I'm going to go with the Orioles, even though I like both Perez and Penny.
To make the Schilling deal worse, they traded Fossum for Cruz, and Fossum turned into a decent, although hardly spectacular, pitcher, and they cut Cruz a few months later, only for him to improve drastically once he was healthy
a) repair the TV and buy a new DVD player
b) buy a new TV and a new DVD player
c) buy a new TV/DVD combo
or bet all of your savings on the Dodgers season with the hope that you'll win enough for HDTV and DVD recorder.
My wish list is similar to post 21.
I'm wishing that we end up sometime during the season, somehow with a 25 man roster consisting of this:
Penny lowe perez seo billingsley
gagne baez brazoban broxton osoria kuo hamulack
navarro/martin c, choi/saenz 1b, kent 2b, furcal ss, nomar 3b, drew cruz guzman of
the 3 bench guys other than navarro/martin and choi/saenz being ledee mueller lofton
I don't think we need a utility infielder on the team, if furcal or kent get hurt in a game then move a starter like nomar to ss or 2b for that particular game insert a bench guy like mueller or saenz at 3b, and immediately call up a ss or 2b from the minors and put the injured guy (furcal kent) on the 15 day dl.
Otherwise carry a utility infielder and don't carry hamulack.
We bought a Sony 27" HDTV mid-2005 for about $600 with a free stand thrown in. Sell your car, buy the tube. ;)
Actually, there's still relatively little offered in HD format (other than ESPN, which might be enough for this crowd..grins). It's gonna take some time.
The primary rationale as I recall it is DePodesta didn't believe he had enough starting pitching to get to, or through the playoffs. Yeah, we were in first, but the Giants wuz not dead.
Interestingly, the Dodgers ended up in first place even though they had little to show for that trade, i.e. Ross playing instead of LoDuca, but Penny on the DL after pitching only twice, and Choi playing himself onto the bench. Would LoDuca and Mota have made the difference against the World Series-bound St. Louis in the playoffs?
We still have Penny and Choi. That in itself suggests the trade was a defensible one.
We did that for the tv, and AMEX lost the charge for about 8 months. Finally the store wrote us a letter; we had a free tv for all that time.
Unless you want to spend $400-600 on a decent 27-32" TV, I'd say get it repaired and plan on going HD in the next year or so.
But if you think your HD purchase is farther away, you can get a very nice 27-32" standard-def set that will probably be significantly nicer in quality than the one you got 10 years ago.
52 Tdogg, what's your definition of "melting down"? Mota is practically the dictionary entry. While I was surprised and concerned that he was traded away (at the time), it seems pretty unavoidably obvious that Mota went into a complete nosedive ever since late-2004.
Vs righthanders
furcal ss
choi 1b
drew of
kent 2b
nomar 3b
guzman of
cruz of
navarro c
Vs lefthanders
furcal ss
martin c (obp machine i predict)
drew of
kent 2b
nomar 3b
guzman of
seanz 1b
cruz of
With martin sometimes starting against righthanders and i would even put martin in the #1 slot vs righthanders when he starts vs righthanders, and put furcal in the #8 slot.
Wishfull thinking tho.
from nationals.com notes on the game.
Jason Bay had more going for him than you suggest at the time the Mets traded him. That he later evolved into core player was far from stunning to people other than Steve Phillips.
Bay was a consistent hitter at each level with a broad skill set (not that Willy Aybar has ever shown Bay's power, but one of the similar things I like about Aybar is he does a lot of things at least OK).
The Midwest League favors pitchers; Bay OPS'd over 1.000 there. Even at age 22, that's stout.
Bay was solid or better in high A and double A leagues. His bat control was excellent -- tough to strike out and his slug rates were pretty good. Could've walked more, yes.
Factor in plus athleticism, no PED rumors, scouting reports of the ball jumping off his bat to all fields and a slower immersion to baseball caused by growing up in Canada.
I gave Depo good marks for the Penny trade. Still do.
Still, there are related blunders:
It seems evident that Depo inexcusably failed to collect background information on Penny's medicals. John Boles knew Penny well. Boles, a former Marlins manager, worked for Depo. Accounts are that Depo failed to consult Boles and that Boles quit because of it. Aside from being poor leadership, that's failed process.
Would insider knowledge of Penny's shoulder ailments have precluded the trade? Hard to know. Did Penny's history of shoulder injuries signal the upper-arm ailment that shut down Penny? No concrete evidence either way. Some medical theories suggest a relationship between labrum damage and the symptoms Penny experienced. Were Penny's prior problems related to the labrum? Possible. If so, were they known by Boles? Possible.
Two: Please don't seize upon this as a strong endorsement of "heart and soul" defense -- that whole angle was overworked by both the trade's backers and critics. But if you concede that such intangibles manifested in one player have any significant value, better to have another everyday player who can fill that void. Perhaps no such player existed post PL-D.
Lots of good points, save perhaps the final graph.
The Midwest League favors pitchers; Bay OPS'd over 1.000 there. Even at age 22, that's stout.
I don't know where you are getting those stats.
http://tinyurl.com/zh948
I remember Bay in the minors. He had good tools, but didn't really put it together until he got to San Diego.
Fairly or unfairly, people complained that former Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta did not prepare for the cataclysm of injuries that befell the team - that his spare tires were mostly flat.
So it's the people who complained about the spare parts that I'm disagreeing with. DePo's bench/Plan B pickups were, largely, amazingly good. Probably mostly luck, but still. Jose Hernandez 2004, Dessens, Antonio Perez, Lima 2004, Finley 2004, Cruz, Houlton, Robles, Gio (I know what Steve thinks of him, but his 2004 numbers were spectacular, and his 2005 ones were only so-so). They aren't, and weren't, blockbusters, but as filler they were really great. And he gave up nothing, getting them. I'd even throw in Phillips as a good backup, which he could have been half of last year, and all of this one, practically for free.
His big misses were Grabowski, Nakamura, and Erickson, but he got them practically for free, and their biggest problem was that they played. The other mistake was sending Roberts away for nothing, which hurt in 2005. I think that all of these, fairly examined, were much more harmful to the psyche of the fans than the W-L record.
DePo had three big problems:
1. Tracy's pet players and his vendetta cases.
2. What looks to have been a very tight trade market in 2005. No big deals were made. If even the idiots aren't buying, prices are probably too high.
3. Bottom heavy farm system. You can't be three deep at every position without a useful AAA team.
So, even though the backups were probably better than league average, and maybe much better (I'm eyeballing it, so it's just a guess), he couldn't overcome the three big problems.
"You know damn well that what you see is what you get. You can look at other people and speculate all you want. But you guys know that from looking at me, I didn't touch a thing. I don't worry about other people's numbers. You guys know me. I don't worry about your relationships with other people."
http://tinyurl.com/o9bft
Make Jason Grabowski go away.
You and perhaps others trusted a suspect web site -- the Cube has holes in bios and it has at least one big one with Jason Bay. It omits Bay's Midwest League season with Clinton in 2001.
Oh yeah, not a bad bit of work: .572 slugging percentage, .449 on-base percentage, about 360 plate appearances in a pitchers league.
You can check the Clinton LumberJacks web site:
www.mwlguide.com/years/2001/teams/lkings.html
Jason Bay didn't just "put it together" after Steve Phillips traded him to San Diego.
As I wrote, Bay had been a broad-based producer. I cited other factors in his favor -- stats, scouting profile and intangibles.
Good-speed, three-position OFs who OPS at 1.041 in pitchers leagues should be cherished, not traded for the likes of Steve Reed.
I highly doubt San Diego or Pittsburgh viewed Bay as some sort of obscure longshot. He likely was viewed as a very good bet to help as an extra outfielder, with the potential for good returns as an everday player.
At least San Diego used him as part of a package that got Brian Giles. Phillips deserves the flogging he gets for this trade. Aside from being clueless about Bay, he traded him for Reed. Those Mets needed a whole lot more than Reed that July to become a WS contender.
The Cardinal move on to play Missouri State on Friday night in Springfield.
I highly doubt San Diego or Pittsburgh viewed Bay as some sort of obscure longshot. He likely was viewed as a very good bet to help as an extra outfielder, with the potential for good returns as an everday player.
Go back and read my post. I said he was basically projected as a backup in the majors. I think he did play CF at one point in his minor league career, but he had shoulder surgery, which weakened his arm. He never had a great arm though. He does have great range for a LF, kind of like Barry Bonds when he was younger. When I was following him in the minors, I thought of him as a guy with good speed and defense. He could occasionally pop one, but he definitely wasn't a power hitter.
Am I reading this right? Are you crediting Depo with signing Lima and Jose Hernandez?
IIRC, Dan Evans signed Lima and Hernandez shortly before Plaschke/Newhan/McCourt fired him.
I'm pretty sure those were the last moves Evans made.
It's all good, just talking baseball here.
About 360 PAs of 1.041 OPS/.572 slug in a pitchers park is a pretty juicy "half of a season," no?
You said it looked like Bay would be a backup at best. Indeed it likely did -- to Steve Phillips and many others.
I'm saying that a few smart clubs likely thought Bay could be an everday guy -- that Bay didn't just take MiracleGro after the Mets dealt him.
Beyond anything you said, I also believe "backups" too often is pejorative (again, I'm not saying that was your intent).
I just think that's a whole class of talent that often gets lumped together.
If you project as a good backup, one who can play all three OF spots, get on base and show decent power, at age 25 or so, you're probably underpaid.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5412672
Caution, this might induce cramping:
Looks like right-hander Edwin Jackson, the Dodgers' former top prospect, might tempt the Rays into putting him into their rotation. Jackson retired 15 of 16 hitters in his first two outings, throwing 94 to 96 mph with a devastating slider and decent changeup."
I certainly had no beef with Evans. Then again, I suppose when you follow Kevin Malone it's easy to look good.
Sure, give Simers a slice of the pie, too.
96
Rosenthal's laying it on pretty thick, portraying Ned as ulta-astute by signing Furcal and Nomar. They are defensible signings -- but plopping down $45 million ain't exactly clever.
However, Rosey's optimism over the Izturis return is warranted (yes, I smell a Steve quip coming). I'd love to watch Furcal and Izturis up the middle.
For the Braves
Penny signed an extension last season. He's here through 2008.
Paul LoDuca was playing great baseball and had just played in the all star game. Guillermo Mota was the most dominant set up man in the game. Mota was awesome
Yes, so DePo traded them at their highest value, and subsequently got back the highest return possible. If the Dodgers had waited till the end of the year to trade them, Mota would have lost all his value (since he imploded). And Loduca was due arbitration. He wasnt going to be tendered by the Dodgers (similar to Finley). So they couldnt have traded him bc other teams knew that he'd be released anyway.
think 99.9999% of GM's would have brought back a lot more for LoDuca, Mota, and Encarnacion (salary dump) on 7/30/2004.
What do you logically expect to bring back? I think Penny, Choi, and the prospect needed to ensure Steve Finley was pretty good. What should the Dodgers have gotten back instead, according to you?
(c) Putting up a wish list item on Amazon so Dodger Thoughts posters can buy you a new one.
Ethier doesn't profile in CF. He's a corner guy who can play CF in a pinch.
Unless the other GM values nothing but batting average, LoDuca's value isn't that high. His best on base percentage since 2001 was .335 and his best slug was .402. Plus, his second half slump is amazingly well documented. Dealing him at the trade deadline is the ultimate fantasy trade.
Mota had a good ERA, but he showed signs of slipping in 2004, with his walk rate almost doubling. Obviously this was a bad sign, since he's stunk since he left the Dodgers.
Even if we ignore Choi, what do you expect for these players but a young, established pitcher, and a prospect that could be turned into Steve Finley?
Or a wife translator...
Repko has gone deep.
Repeat: Repko has gone deep.
Where is everyone today?
RBI single for Repko, with another runner thrown out at home.
Plus, Choi's playing time had not diminished one iota by July, here are his games played by month:
April - 21
May - 26
June - 24
July - 25
and an .882 OPS is below average? Then you'll say "it's only because he had a great April" to which I would say, "his OPS was still over .800 in June and July".
I swear you're just making this up as you go.
Houston would not give up Oswalt if they were trying to contend. That year they dealt from their bullpen because it was a strength, so trading Dotel and picking up Mota would not make much sense.
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