Can you imagine working for years and years and realizing that you can't get a major league job because people think Rick Monday is good?

When I was nine, I met Vin and Jerry, and dreamed of being in the booth. I still broadcast games under my breath when I'm watching.

I live in Las Vegas, so I get to hear Russ Langer a bit. Good, solid broadcaster. And then I think not only of Monday but of guys like Steve Lyons, and I remember Red Barber and Harry Caray saying they told young people who asked them about becoming broadcasters, learn to hit the curve ball and you'll make it. What a shame that that has proved to be so true.

http://tinyurl.com/qcqfl

the Padres "Mr. San Diego" Ted Leitner, and perennial homer Steve Physioc of the Angels immediately coming to mind.

As for me, I never dreamed of being an announcer, but I would have been unlikely for me to succeed even if I had. Those inky smoke clouds make it too hard for me to see the game.

If the name Vasgersian comes up, then we are living in end tims.

Great article Jon. I'd compare their situation to a minor leaguer who produces at every level, but is overlooked because they either don't have the tools (and aren't flashy) or the organization cares more about their bonus babies. Langer is an excellent announcer, far better than Rick Monday and Charley Steiner. I still can't understand how an announcer as bad as Monday can keep his job for so long. It might have something to do with him being a former Dodger "great" and for the flag burning incident.

(That's not to say I don't find Monday funny. I'll never forget one of Monday's calls of a Robin Ventura hit. It went something like this: "Ventura pokes one...dropping...going foul...back...HOME RUN!")

http://tinyurl.com/s4p29

Steiner seems more interested in talking about the Yankees and food rather than the Dodgers. He gets sidetracked very easily. Anyone remember the game in Milwalkee last year where Steiner and Lyons were eating hot dogs in the booth in the middle of the game. I remember hearing in the offseason that Lyons was going to take a job with as a color commentary man for the White Sox. Anyone know if this actually came to fruition?

Of course, Cards fans also loved Bo Hart as a second baseman. Maybe it was because he had the official St. Louis Cardinal fan haircut: the mullet.

Not a popular decision in the Mound City.

As someone descended from people from the St. Louis/Western Illinois area, I can say that my family is mullet-free.

Another mullet observation: Those with mullets typically have no sideburns. Coincidence?

26 Bob, I heard a new Cards radio guy the other day, but at the time I just thought it was a split squad broadcasting crew or something. Any idea who Shannon's new booth partner is?

John Rooney is his new partner, formerly of the White Sox.

Furcal is starting at shortstop. Kenny Lofton, who I feel is going to be an awesome table setter will bat 2nd. Nomar Garciaparra will bat 3rd with no Kent or Drew in the lineup. I really feel NG is poised for a huge season. Ledee and Alomar are going to get some AB's at the 4 and 5 holes. Bill Mueller who has been nothing short of phenomenal thus far is getting tuned up at the 6 spot which is where he will bat Opening Day. Cody Ross and Oscar Robles make up the 7.8. Brett Tomko who has been unhittably filthy this spring pitches and bats 9th. I love these evening spring games.

Including things like salad knives and sauce spoons?

John Rooney used to do the CBS Radio Game of the Week and did some games for Fox. I think he's good. And I bet White Sox fans who wanted good broadcasting turned down the sound on their TVs so they didn't have to hear Ken Harrelson.

As for our crew, my dad thinks that Rick Monday's middle name is Check That. And the day the Dodgers talked about having a color man instead of the Vinnie-style monologue, I knew it was a matter of time until they were discussing food and the quality of the team hotel.

2.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP 2.64 K/BB.

See if you can remember who this go getter was.

Furcal leads off with a single. He steals 2nd. I absolutely love it that we have speed in the 1 and 2 slots. Lofton comes through with a single which scores Furcal, and Lofton with his speed and excellent base running skills coasts into 2nd. This is going to be a fun season.

http://tinyurl.com/mx3bx

none of the Dodgers.

Q: What don't you miss about being the skipper of the Dodgers?

Lasorda: What I don't miss? I don't miss the losses.

Assuming you're not being facetious, is Ned's Nomar aquisition gold? (or.. GOLD?)

http://public-art.shu.ac.uk/sheffield/cantn22.html

If anyone has ever seen me eat (which is hard to do since I eat very fast), I wouldn't bother with such things.

As someone said on "The Simpsons" about Homer:

"He eats like a horse."
"No horses chew their food. He eats more like a duck."

70 - Thats almost as funny as Bret Tomko coming in to pitch for the Dodgers.

Ggane begins to loosen.

Gagne's intimidated. 4 pitch walk. LOL....

Hamulak and Brazoban loosening up.

Strikes out the side. That felt great.

As we pick up a 1/2 hour later Kuo has entered the game for the 2nd day in a row. Will he pass the Griddle test?

Replace "I feel" with "I hope, but have reason to expect" and finish the whole thing off with "but I know that Spring Training stats are completely meaningless, whether good or bad," and I agree 100%.

That's about what I deserved. Karma 1 GoBears 0.

By the way, did you guys know that Bill Mueller died for your sins?

By the way, Repko has dropped to .268/.362/.439 , but I don't think anyone will notice.

91. bluetahoe, if you are surprised by the negativity, most people here (not me), do not think there is enough "upside" on the dodgers.

92. But what if DePo signed these players? I guess I can understand low expectations for Lofton, but Nomar will hit, he is a proven hitter.

My thoughts on Aybar, oldbear, I really hope you see why he is not our 3B now. His defense has been awful this spring. I know hitting stats can be taken with a grain of salt, but there is no excuse for his poor defense. That is just one of the many reasons Mueller is our 3B.

On the other side of the coin, Nomar's just tuning up for the season. He's not here to take walks in March. He's swinging at pitches he normally won't swing at in the rgular season. He will be fine. He's a proven vet that will get the job done.

Lofton is here to get on base and create havoc on the paths so pitchers can't concentrate on Drew/Kent. Lofton's a sparkpug and an OBP machine. Sure he's old, but we need one for year for the kids to develop. Lofton is great stop gap. Kudos to Ned. Lofton struggled in the spring but I'm not worried. He's been through this spring training stuff enough. He'll come out of the gates like a firecracker when it all counts.

Yes, it's not all about stats at all in ST, it's about the approach of the players.

And I'm not saying that I am going to go out on a huge limb, and predict an under 4 ERA for Tomko, but if he actually listens to his catcher, he has always had the stuff.

No ones been negative. There may have been a joke or two. (I never got.)

OH NO!! Does oldbear post his Dodger hate on this site too. I'm sick of him sabotaging the game threads on the official site, so I thought I'd give this one a gander. They don't seem to do a game thread here. I guess I should have kept to the official site today. Oldbear didn't seem to sabotage todays thread. Bonnie made a funny crack abouthow good LoDuca looked in a Mets uniform. She was scared Oldbear was going to call her a LoDuca troll. LOL........

Not really. He just signed a 3-year contract. If anything, he had something to prove last year. He proved that his mediocre-at-best ERAs and low K-rates were not a fluke. The proof is in the multi-year, multi-million dollar pudding.

Call me Tony Parker.

His stellar career up until now earned him the contract.

I'd agree with Marty that Penny has something to prove, close, but not quite to the extent of Tomko. The same goes for Odalis Perez and to a lesser extent Yhency Brazoban.

Can you prove that those guys have something to prove?

Prove it.

I hated to see those words on a math exam in middle school :)

Nomar is a free swinger. He swung at the 1st pitch over 50% of the time last season. You keep saying Nomar is a 'proven veteran', but he hasnt been a proven All-Star since 2003. That was 3 years ago.

Yes, Kurt Warner was once an MVP. Back in 1999. He's not that good anymore. Nomar isnt either.

Nomar was an all star in 2003. OK.
He wasn't in 2004. So be it.
He wasn't in 2005. He was hurt.

If Nomar shows the flare he showed for Chicago the last month and a half of '05 look for him in Pittsburgh the 2nd Tuesday of July.

Do these 'folks' include Ned Colletti, the current GM of the Dodgers and former Asst GM of the Giants? So far, you have said Tomko is going to have a great season because he's upset Brian Sabean didnt resign him...Interesting.

I'm not sure what a 33yr old, in the 1st year of a 3yr deal, has to prove?

Nomar for Jason Bay?

Warner isnt good anymore because his physical skills have deteriorated. It has nothing to do with religion. Kurt's my favorite Rams QB of all time, but when he claimed that he was benched bc of his religious beliefs, instead of acknowledging that he just wanst a very good QB anymore, he lost a lot of respect amongst Rams fans.

2 years + option...

Anyway, bluetahoe, don't even bother arguing about motivation, chemistry, or anything that cannot be "proven" with stats, even though they are important.

I think if enough starts allign for Tomko, he can be a pretty decent pitcher. And I do think having something to prove, and chemistry have value.

I thought my joke was obvious. Sorry to have caused you to write what didn't need to be written.

But he'd be one of your "UPSIDE" players if DePo had signed him. There is a difference between someone good 7 years ago, than just being 2 years removed because of injuries.

And you don't take Nomar's ST stats seriously right?

Typical oldbear. LOL.....

For example, Austin Kearns has to prove that he can stay healthy and show the promise that he showed during his rookie season 4 years ago.

Carlos Pena has to prove that he has regained his confidence and deserves a job somewhere in the major leagues since the Tigers no longer have a need for him.

Every major leaguer would like to prove something. Whether it's Pujols trying to prove that he'll be a hall of famer or Jeff Kent trying to prove he's still got it age 38. Using any of these minor motivations as proof that a player will play above and beyond their norm is pointless though. If Tomko does end up having a breakout season, it will be because of some sort of mechanical adjustment, coaching philosophy, or newfound confidence, not the mythical "something to prove".

I dont think Tomko's effort can overcome his physical incapabilities. I guess you are saying you think Tomko wants to prove to Sabean that he should have gotten the 3yr/27 deal instead of Morris. Perhaps, but I'm sure Erickson wanted to prove he wasnt completely washed up either last season. I'm sure he was grateful to have a chance with the Dodgers, after not being around baseball for a couple seasons. But it didnt help him in the end.

I tend to look at talent above effort or 'motivation'. There's plenty of guys that are horrible, but they try really hard. That still doesnt reallly change anything.

Wouldnt Tomko have had his most motivation last season, considering it was his free agent year? How did that turn out?

I sure hope Martin is the everyday catcher over Alomar while Navarro's out.

Thats obviously gonna happen.

"When you have new faces, you have to re-prove yourself," said Repko, referring to the new faces of Little and general manager Ned Colletti. "I knew that coming to Spring Training."

There's no upside when you sign for 6mils+incentives and are downgrading the position as well.

Tomko has talent. He's always had a good heater, and some other decent stuff. Its always been a mental thing with Tomko.

You can have all the talent in the world, but without motivation be bad.

Also, don't compare Tomko with Erickson, Erickson had barley pitched for like 5 years.

33 yr old average pitchers dont all of a sudden "get it" and become great.

I never said that I really am taking Tomko's stats seriously.

I really don't feel like getting into another Hee Seop Saenz debate, but 6 million plus incentives is a good bargain if Nomar returns to form. And no, your awkward 4 legged first baseman is not better than a healthy Nomar.

I dont think Isaac is coming back after that total cheap shot Trey and Matt gave him tonite. I understand the spoof, but for a guy that helped make that show really popular, they sure threw him under the bus with tonite's episode.

A healthy Nomar can be better than Ryan Howard or Berkman. And be right up there with Helton if he played at Coors.

But Lee, Pujols, and Delgado are probably better first baseman.

I really don't feel like getting into another Hee Seop Saenz debate, but 6 million plus incentives is a good bargain if Nomar returns to form. And no, your awkward 4 legged first baseman is not better than a healthy Nomar.

But it is better than 1) lofton and 2) mueller.

That would hurt nate's all prospect team, as Billingsley and company would be throwing to Bellorin/Langill (although the former might be considered a marginal prospect). If Martin is hitting .300/.370/.400 or something like that when Navarro returns, do we send him to to AAA?

I just woke my wife and kids up with hysterical laughter. LOL.....

If thats a "bargain", what would you consider Frank Thomas (500K +incentives), and Mike Piazza (2mils) deals?

And what is Nomar's "form"? Are you talking about his 2000-2003 numbers? ARe you expecting him to reach those?

Thomas, one of the few who are actually more injury prone than JD Drew. Yea, I guess it would be a great bargain if he is healthy, but that just not likely.

And there is a reason that Mike only got 2 million. He is done. Done.

Both of these players are older than Nomar, and Nomar has more "UPSIDE" than Piazza.

when will the game be archived!

You're right.

And I am simply explaining that defense is important, as we saw today, once Mueller was taken out, Aybar lost us the game. Mueller will hit you around .292, 12-15 home runs, and 63-67 RBIs. And that's batting in the 6th spot. He is an important part of our ballclub, there is no reason to have him on the bench.

Whats Nomar gonna OBP?
Whats Nomar gonna SLG?
How many HR's is Nomar gonna hit?
How many AB's will Nomar get?

Mueller is a solid third baseman. Period.

Well as i said choi/saenz is better than lofton first then better than mueller second.

Mueller doesn't have enough ops for me, but lofton is the first to replace.

If i had my way i'd have both lofton and mueller on the bench in favor of choi/saenz 1b, guzman of, nomar 3b.

Its tough to win when you only score 1 run.

alot of people here like the mueller signing just to let you know.

is he still going to be doing the 51s broadcasts?

san frans hr park factor is .86

1.0 is nuetral i think.

Doesn't help when you have a second baseman trying to play 3rd, and blowing the game.

Also, the dodgers didn't have their starting hitters in today, that should explain their lack of offense today.

Mueller is NOT a bench player. And Nomar is a BAD defensive third baseman. Contrary to your apparent opinion, defense matters.

If Aybar really did blow a ST game, I think he should be traded to Tampa Bay for a middle reliever as soon as possible. Before all the good ones are gone!

Well, his career OPS is .911. .544 slugging, and .367 OBP.

This year, I'd say:

.360 OBP
.522 slugging.
24 home runs.
around 600 at bats.
.305 batting average.
and 100 RBIs.

Why is mueller not a bench player and prove to me that nomar is a bad defensive 3b, and defense doesn't matter when you out score the other team with good ops and good pitching (low hr/9 and whip and high k/9).

Well, a few things were resolved, but everybody likely knew them anyway.

I remember Nomar in a game we had with the cubs last year. Routine play, and he threw the ball into right field. He has not played 3B that much.

Also, in tight ballgames, defense DOES MATTER. Not EVER GAME IS A 5-0 BLOWOUT, sometimes you have to win 1-0, 3-2, or so. And it is pretty hard to do that with bad defense, as Aybar showed us today.

I relented to watching The Terminal the other day. Is Hanks ever going to make another movie where his isn't the only character? He did the one on an island, then Terminal, then the cartoon one where he voiced everybody. Not a big fan of people, I guess.

Interesting.

I dont see the power since Nomar's hit 13HR's total his last two seasons playing in Wrigley/Fenway.

But thats why they play the games.

And you can see why.

But anyway, did you see him screaming at the Oscars to stop playing the Forrest Gump theme? I didn't watch the Oscars, but I saw the tape later. High-larious.

Nomar had a .524 slugging % in his last healthy season in 2003.

Also, he has had a .360 + OBP in his last 2 injury plauged years.

Further, he has never had under 21 home runs in 140+ games. I'm not going out on a huge limb here.

But you avoid that with solid ops and solid pitching.

Unfortunately we don't have solid starting pitching and don't have any in-house options either, but we do have some in-house options for ops, the question is will ned use those ops options.

Nomar hasnt played 1st base either that much. And a 1st basemen handles more fielding chances per game than a 3rd basemen does. You saw it tonite. Most of our infielders are probably used to having a 1st basemen that can dig out bad throws. If Nomar cant do that well, he'll make the rest of the infield look worse.

Nomar has always had, and will always have, a higher batting average than Jeff Kent. Kent is not known for being a .300 hitter.

Also, those were injury plauged seasons, in 140 or more games, he's never hit under 21 home runs.

See, you put too much stock over Nomar being in dodgers stadium. It isn't too hard to hit home runs there on day games. Also, you have coors, Chase field, citizens bank park, amoung other hitters parks Nomar will see this year.

you are going out on a huge limb thinking he will be fully healthy and get 600 ABs

Nomar was healthy last year. He put up numbers. Then he got hurt. He went on the DL. He came back when he was healthy. He put up numbers again.

You make it seem like Nomar has had some chronic injury that he's just now recovering from and that he played through the last couple years. Not true. Nomar was completely healthy last season when they started the year. The facts are that he was doing very poorly to start the year. Then he tore his groin. Then he came back and started to hit again.

Players decline with age. I think Nomar is on the back half of his career.

Also, you can't aviod at least 20, 1 run ball games over the course of a 162 game season. It's not fantasy here, this is the real world. And in the real world, you get 1 run ball games, and cannot always aviod that with your "OPS."

In his career, Garciaparra has an .047 isolated patience and a .224 isolated power. You're asking him to meet or exceed his career numbers in both these categories.

Barring a freak accident, he can do that.

what do you mean by that? I'm just saying that those are the numbers Nomar is likely to put up in a full season. I'm not talking about some isolated stats, just what he does at the plate.

Ok, I meant full season, not healthy season. And Nomar is not as on the downside as Thomas or Piazza.

When I took you out
I knew what you were all about
But when I did
I didn't mean to turn you off

One of the things that most turns me off here are these retarded posts

What are you, in the 6th grade? Let me try this then, it really ticks me off when people here remind me how to spell, and the sh** in your post.

(Said by one with a 3.50 Post/Typo Average)

Edit: One of the things that ticks me off here are the retarded posts that remind me how to spell.

Do you have anything better to do than to pick out tiny errors in my posts?

I mean c'mon, avoid? What, you've never overlooked a typing error before?

isolated_power := SLUG - BA;
isolated_patience := OBP - BA;

That's the clearest way I know to say it.

So I'd hit it right on the nail if I said he was gonna hit .320, so that would bring him down to size?

Edit: One of the things that ticks me off here are the retarded posts that remind me how to spell.

I got that many times on dodgers.com, so the best of both worlds.

But i agree, not very often i agree with you.

EDIT: Before D4P comes with another lame joke about what I just said, I meant, if he hits .320, would that reduce his "power and patience" isolated stats.

I'm sorry, spelling/grammatical errors = laziness, careless thinking in my book. Call me old school.

Preposterous!

Let's use Paul LoDuca's 2001 breakout year (aside: in which he only played 120 games vs ~145 the next three years, indeed).

isoPat = .54 = .374 (obp) - .320 (ba)
isoPow = .223 = .543 (slg) - .320 (ba)

No wonder guys like Jose Valinetin and Hee Seop Choi can have such high isolated stats with their low BAs. But then again, does that diminish Ted Williams when he hit over .400? I think you should go deeper than that, I like raw OBP and Slugging, and OPS better than these isolated stats.

I meant before you came up with another 219.

The effect of this is it means fewer extra base hits and more singles. Consider two (bad) players:

A 100ab 30h (0 XBH) .333/.333/.333
B 100ab 25h (5 doubles) .250/.250/.333

Player A has an isolated power of .0 because all of his slugging comes from his average.
Player B has an isolated power of .83 because he derives some of his slugging from extra base hits.

that could come into play when you are talking about his BA and slg.

Isolated stats are another tool in evaluating a player. They're almost a meta-stat, because they inform you about the subtle meanings of the rate stats. Is a player a slap hitter who rarely takes a walk or is a player a TTO kind of guy.

Think about that? THe only way for him to accumulate more bases with less hits, is by hitting a greater percentage of homers, triples, and doubles than he ever has before.

"MILK WAS A BADDDD CHOICE."

.522 slugging is .22 points less than Nomar's career slugging.

No, I just didn't like your 219 post.

If only this were the sole criterion...

he had his own tv show for a bit. what was the name of it?

247 - He slugged .455 with 262 hits, only 8 of which were homers?? That seems...odd...

--steps up onto soapbox--

Re: 252 , 249 et all, all I have to say is that I am looking forward to Opening Day more with each thread like this I read. I've been reading Jon's blog for a year and a half and I am truly grateful he has allowed such a knowledgeable, tightly-knit, and at least until the past couple of weeks, welcoming community to develop here.

While some posters may need a FAQ or to browse through the archives before raising certain topics for the millionth time, there are several others who would do well to think about what has made this place so great for so long, and how to bring that back. Steve and Nate, most of the time I enjoy your posts as much as the next person but it would be a tragedy for everybody who posts here (and lurks, like I did for so long) if the community that has set such high standards for itself degenerates into what many of us came here to get away from.

--steps down off of soapbox--

98-.323/.362/.584
99- .357/.418/.603
00- .372/.434/.599

I think Nomar will hit like Erstad. Nate's right most of his SLG'ing is derived from doubles, and he doesnt have the Green Monster to hit off of anymore.

Nomar will hit .280/.330/.420 in my opinion. He's only hit 18HR's in 551AB's the last two years playing in Wrigley/Fenway.

So if he's gonna hit less doubles at DS than before, and in terms of home runs he hasnt hit many the last several years at homer friendly ball parks, I just dont see the logic in expecting a big year from Nomar.

Toodles...

"Also, in tight ballgames, defense DOES MATTER."

This is correct. While a high OPS offense is good to have, and solid pitching is a necessity, speed & defense are also important team attributes. I believe a balanced team is the goal for a quality team. To think otherwise seems very one-dimensional to me.

Let's look at last year's World Series participants. Neither the White Sox, nor the Astros ranked in the top 10 of team OPS.

289 Let's look at last year's World Series participants. Neither the White Sox, nor the Astros ranked in the top 10 of team OPS.

Indeed. Let's look at their pitching. Houston gave up the fewest runs per game in the NL, and Chigago had the lowest ERA in the AL.

This is like a soft toss drill with ten-inch softballs.

One-run games can be 1-0 or 9-8.

The best teams outscore their opponents, period ... by any means necessary, if you will. There is no inherent value to being a great offensive team, a great defensive team or a greatly balanced team.

The only reason for balance to be valued is that it's rare that a team is so good in one category that it doesn't need to be good in the other. But anything you can do to improve your run differential is a good thing, even if you're building upon a strength.

The only reason for balance to be valued is that it's rare that a team is so good in one category that it doesn't need to be good in the other.

Case in point: The 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers.

This straw man is officially ablaze.

What is true is that slightly better pitching will be slightly worse hitting. And the converse is true.

There's no reason it would be wrong to sacrifice good defense to have good OP, but right to sacrifice good OPS to have good defense.

306 Strunk and White would approve.

You're not saying that attempts to describe defense statistically are valueless, are you? Many of Joe Morgan's ilk would say that people like MGL who attempt to do so "know nothing about defense" because they never played it.

315 -- I am not saying that. I am saying that I made the category mistake of believing that worthless statements about defense rendered defense worthless. In some sense, that statement is true, because ignorance on the subject renders defense nothing more than a crapshoot -- it wouldn't matter because one wouldn't know what to do about it anyway. But, like the fact that it is better to hit the ball than not, it is obviously better to catch the ball than not.

This is clearly the insight of the night by the way. Maybe I can get a book deal out of it.

why was broxton listening? he doesnt even throw a curveball.

There's nothing wrong with having a slick fielding, speedy SS...or a slick fielding, speedy centerfielder, etc. I belive that a good team should have speed, strong fielding, high OPS hitting, great pitching, a strong bench, a smart manager, a solid prospect stream, etc.

oh wow, dewitt PH today? nice, something to look forward too while i watch the game now.

Indeed.

The best lamb shanks I've ever had were in Guggenheim Museum Cafe in Bilbao. I've been trying for 5 years to come close to those on my own, but sadly, I lack the heritage.

This may be true, or it may not be. There is nothing inherently right about those things either. There is also the greater problem of determining who is a "slick fielder" in a world where Jason Repko is a "slick fielder"

The number could as easily be two or 12, three or 10, four or seven. The names are Billingsley, Guzman, Martin and LaRoche … Kuo, Loney, Broxton and Ethier … Osoria, Miller, Young and Orenduff … Kemp, Abreu, Hu and DeWitt.

SCOTT ELBERT HENSON.. SCOTT ELBERT!!

305 - Jon, this sentence kinda baffled me. I didn't mean to infer that it would be good to sacrifice good OPS to have good defense. My whole point was the importance of balance, which Andrew described well in 297.... "A great offense can make up for lousy defense. A great pitching rotation can make up for a garbage lineup".

If Martin tears it up while Navarro's on the DL, do you think they'll keep Navarro down at Vegas?

The problem is that, except for the Yankees, no team can afford to buy "speed, strong fielding, high OPS hitting, great pitching [and] a strong bench."322 "Some Posters" believe that teams should focus on things that can be easily quantified, and forego those that can not because their effect on winning is suspect.

I'm glad the Dodgers have improved their farm system. Our boatload of prospects should ease our financial constraints in future years if we can hold onto them.

I agree that its easiest to focus on quantifiable figures, but that doesn't mean that speed or defense should be ignored as having no value.

Jeff Kent is at least average at the position, while providing high OPS. Guzman's defense appears to be below average at SS. I think he would be a liability there, whereas, he could be a vital asset in the outfield with only average defense. In fact, I think he will eventually play RF because of his strong arm.

Likewise, the same can be said for a guy like Cora. Does his defense make up for his weak bat?

Doesn't MGL have that LWTS or SWLTS system or whatever that supposedly measures what we are talking about? And didn't Pete Palmer invent linear weights?

Some people have claimed in places other than these comments that Soriano himself (or perhaps his agent) would claim his value is highest if he plays second base and not the outfield.

See the Griddle and articles posted therein.

Then, introduce the concept of relative worth--a great starting rotation with a crappy relief corps will outperform, by a wide margin, the inverse. Great hitters who are crappy fielders are generally more valuable than the inverse, especially when they play the relatively less important positions.

So, it's kind of like balancing in the financial sense--a system of credits and debits, where some transactions are weighted more heavily than others. Figuring out how to weight them is interesting, and nobody has the actual answer. But the answer is never an absolute like: 'If you want to win in the post season, you need a good closer.' Or, 'Defense plus pitching is the key to winning.' There is no one key, because there are so many keys that'll fit.

Relative worth is an important concept here. "A chain is only as strong as its weakest link". But, its better to have your weakest link on the bench, instead of in the starting lineup.

What bothers me is that it seems that "some posters" are so hooked on high OPS that they would almost encourage David Ortiz to fill the Red Sox' hole at 2nd base because he would have "above average OPS" for the position! I'm obviously exagerrating, but that's the way it comes across to me. It's like saying Shaq is going to be our point guard!...or...let's put Tom Brady at left tackle!

There's a reason players play where they play. There's a reason Ortiz is a DH. There's a reason why Shaq is a center. There's a reason why Furcal is our SS instead of Guzman.

...sure sounds like balance to me.

yeah that's some serious exaggeration. No one is saying to do insane things like put guys like Ortiz at second, we're talking within reason.

Tejada is a prime example. He's a valuable player no matter what, but the fact that he's a SS makes him THAT much more valuable because you can ass a high OPS hitter at a position that the VAST majority of teams don't have.

Guzman may not be great at short, but it's not comprable to putting someone like Ortiz at second, or JD Drew at SS etc etc. Let's say Guzman becomes a 30 HR guy...that's very nice, but in the OF he's not THAT special...at SS, he is.

Now the only thing is how many runs would his defense cost us? I guarantee that the runs he gives up from errors don't even compare to the numbers he produces offensively. Meanwhile, we've got another bat in the OF. In other words...would you rather have a sub par defensive SS that hits 30 bombs and a 30 HR left fielder or would you have someone like Izturis with a 30 HR left fielder? I'll take the former because while the defense might not be as good, the run production offensively will FAR outweigh the shortcomings on defense....

I think there's an element of arguing across points on the Ortiz at 2B thing, too. Guzman at SS is more valuable in the sense that he'd probably make more money over his career there, and probably be worth more in a trade (c.f. Soriano). I don't think anyone has argued that his actual value wouldn't be higher as a OF (same bat, better defense). Also, since he's 20, it was reasonable to hope for the best, instead of being direly pragmatic. But we're coming around.

That's the best part of arguing with people who respect numbers over gut feelings. When the numbers change, the people who think numbers matter have to adjust. A hunch is always as valid as itself.

Covering my tracks: of course, I was only addressing JtD's value in a vacuum; thinkblue0 went a step further which, while clever, is clearly cheating.

This actually borders on an argument for balance, but it's just marginal utility. It seems possible that the Baseball Prospectus BRAR, FRAR, etc. stats are right, but only in a vacuum. That the same BRAR might be worth slightly more, or less, based on the team for which the player put up the number. Anyway, I wonder about it.

Soriano is the most obvious analogy to Guzman, so looking at his 2005 win shares (hardballtimes.com), he ranked 4th among AL 2B's in batting WS's, and 12th in defense. Overall, he ranked 7th, and he ranked 9th above replacement. His glove was an enormous liability.

When we talk about relative value of offense for middle infielders, sometimes we overlook the fact that the relative value of defense is also much higher than for other postitions. If Guzman can't play a competent SS, it will negate part of his offensive value.

So the question is raised: is it better to attempt to develop max value on a prospect in the minors, or should his bat be rushed into the lineup ASAP? Maybe the DRays will figure this out for us with how the handle BJ Upton.

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