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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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Injuries Don't Care That Your GM Is Old School
2006-04-02 09:09
by Jon Weisman

Late Saturday, Dodger center fielder Kenny Lofton was put on the disabled list and Jason Repko was given the job as Opening Day center fielder, meaning that if the weather permits, the Dodgers will try to beat Tim Hudson and the Braves with a batting order that includes Repko, Sandy Alomar, Jr., Derek Lowe and, if we're only the slightest bit unlucky, Ramon Martinez.

Repko gets a lot of discussion in the Dodger Thoughts comments. He's sort of the flip side of Hee Seop Choi in that people find it easy to spot Repko's strengths and sometimes seem blind to his weaknesses. That doesn't mean those strengths aren't there (just as Choi's defenders didn't deny he had weaknesses), only that they tend to be overblown. Further, because he's young and coachable, Repko should improve. How much, I don't know.

Meanwhile, 12 pitchers? Jae Seo is in the bullpen for the first week. Are the Dodgers going to need eight relievers to get through a nine-inning game? The moment the bullpen gets overworked from extra innings or a rout, or the moment Eric Gagne's elbow radiates pain, that's the moment you call up the extra pitcher. In the meantime, it's much more likely that the team will run out of bench players first. And neither Darren Dreifort nor Jeff Weaver are around to pinch-hit ...

I'll keep an open mind and look forward to being proven wrong. Further, lest we forget, this is the National League West. The Dodgers weren't the only team with bad news Saturday: The Padres had to place Mike Cameron and Ryan Klesko on the DL. Right now, though, I'm plagued with this kind of disturbing feeling for a Sunday morning, that the Dodgers are thin, and thinner than they need to be because of the insular group dynamics that are evolving, where people pat each other on the back for decisions made for hoary reasons like, "I like this fella's makeup," or "I've got a hunch about this one."

* * *

Today's 12 noon game

Comments (223)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-04-02 09:19:27
1.   Suffering Bruin
"I'm plagued with this kind of disturbing feeling for a Sunday morning, that the Dodgers are thin, and thinner than they need to be because of the insular group dynamics that are evolving."

I can't improve on this. I just wanted to be first. :)

2006-04-02 09:21:59
2.   Jon Weisman
2 - Actually, I just tried to improve on it. Or elaborate. I don't know if it's an improvement or more noise.
2006-04-02 09:50:46
3.   Screwgie
The thing I can't figure is why Alomar is starting over Navarro in the season opener (according to a Little quote in the Times this morning).

I can almost see the case for Alomar if the rookie Martin were forced to be the opening day catcher, but c'mon, Navarro is fairly seasoned at this point.

I guess Grady is more worried about keeping Alomar happy than fielding the best team.

That disturbing feeling that Jon has is definately contagious.

2006-04-02 09:53:16
4.   wannabe
I went to the Dodger's game in Vegas Thursday night and observed several very unfortunate things. Sels's stuff is better than Penny's. How sad is that? Penny telegraphs most of his pitches. If the Mets announcer (Hernandez) can tell by the third inning that Tomko was telegraphing his change up and it is obvious that Penny is telegraphing all of his pitches what kind of pitching coach do we have? Sorry guys but Repko looked great in Vegas. The best thing to say about the Dodger organization is that the Vegas 51s will have a very deep bench this year.
2006-04-02 09:53:22
5.   Marty
I guess it's time for Lofton to light a fire under the trainer. Let's go Zig!
2006-04-02 09:54:30
6.   tjshere
Yeah, I'm baffled by carrying 12 pitchers, too. To me, 12 pitchers seems a little extreme any time of year, let alone during a period when you have more than an average number of off days.

What I'm really curious to see is who Grittle bats in the #2 slot. I'm thinking he'll go with Repko to keep some speed at the top of the line-up. I'd prefer Mueller. I've even heard Nomah's name put into the mix but I just can't see that, he's been floundering at the plate all spring.

2006-04-02 09:55:29
7.   Telemachos
I don't have a problem with Alomar starting Opening Day, but I had an uncomfortable feeling watching the last two starting lineups: they felt suspiciously like the dog days of last year, with little chance at scoring. I do like Bill Mueller, but he and Nomar are going to miss their amount of games, and then we're with a scrub outfield and infield, and Repko/Ross/etc valiantly waving their way into 3-pitch strikeouts.

Of course, this makes the loss of Choi's power all the more frustrating.

How long before we have Guzman up? It can't come fast enough.

2006-04-02 10:17:39
8.   Suffering Bruin
For my part, I'm more nervous about this year's squad than '05. Last year's team would've been pretty good had it not been for injuries and a field manager throwing a tantrum because all of his friends got traded. This year's team seems older, more fragile and not as deep.

I hope the team stays healthy OR I hope those youngsters play real well, real fast.

2006-04-02 10:20:35
9.   Suffering Bruin
2 On the outside chance I was being misunderstood, I didn't think the post needed improving, I was just remarking that my own analysis could not improve on your analysis which was improved... or something.

Never mind...

2006-04-02 10:23:21
10.   Jon Weisman
9 - No, I understood. I just thought it was funny that as you wrote your comment, I was trying to improve it.
2006-04-02 10:23:29
11.   LAT
"I'm plagued with this kind of disturbing feeling for a Sunday morning, that the Dodgers are thin, and thinner than they need to be because of the insular group dynamics that are evolving."

This can't be true. Plaschke and the Dodger PR machine told me our new GM has added depth so we won't be unprepared like last year. They have to be right. Right?

2006-04-02 10:32:46
12.   MollyKnight
It seems like the 12 pitcher situation is a clear indication that Little anticipates his starting pitching staff will get rocked. Hard. The only time you need that many arms in a bullpen is when you have to string together 8 2/3 in relief every other day.

The Repko adoration can be chalked up to the Podsednik phenomenon; everyone seems intoxicatingly enamored of steals. Nevermind if the speed demon can hit a curve ball.

2006-04-02 10:42:59
13.   Bob Timmermann
In the A's stories about Bobby Kielty getting sent down, they mention that they want 12 pitchers because they anticipate a game getting rained out and they will need the extra pitcher because of that.

Of course, the Dodgers were contemplating 12 pitchers for several weeks, so I guess that's not a great excuse.

2006-04-02 11:01:59
14.   D4P
Can Lofton still light fires while injured? If not, we can kiss Drew goodbye.
2006-04-02 11:12:02
15.   Steve
If only we had Kevin Mench.
2006-04-02 11:12:13
16.   D4P
Jason Repko was given the job as Opening Day center fielder

And with that, I think we can officially dub Project BROtheR a resounding failure.

2006-04-02 11:19:36
17.   Bob Timmermann
Two straight home opener jobs for Repko. He was in left field last year. He homered off of Rueter in the first inning after Weaver imploded in the first inning.
2006-04-02 11:24:18
18.   PadreJeremy
Why is it that I think Furcal is hurt bad enough that he is going to be spending quite a lot of time this year on the DL?

Also, what is Werths status? He seems to be a promising player if the can recover from that wrist injury.

Padres are still better.

2006-04-02 11:37:00
19.   thinkblue0
This whole thing just stinks to me..I'm still bitter about all the injuries last year.

Either way, no one is ever going to be able to convince me that Repko deserves ANY playing time. If he plays well, I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong..but I'm not expecting him to play well. The guy simply can't hit MLB pitching...and the fact that Little is probably going to hit him first or second (depending on Furcal) is just astounding. Wouldn't a 12 year old know not to hit Repko at the top of the lineup?

Alomar for one game, the opener, doesn't bother me too's the fact that there is a chance we could have Alomar, Lowe, Repko, and Martinez in the lineup. I'm sorry, but if that's the case then you've got to put in Navarro for a minor hitting upgrade.

Speaking of Martinez, does anyone know the status of Furcal?

2006-04-02 11:46:27
20.   Linkmeister
FSNW2's video feed is all chopped up today through Oceanic Cable. Gameday or nothin', I guess, unless they can fix it.
2006-04-02 11:53:05
21.   natepurcell
opening day lineup courtesty of the dodgers blog:

Rafael Furcal, SS

Jose Cruz Jr. LF

J.D. Drew, RF

Jeff Kent, 2B

Nomar Garciaparra, 1B

Bill Mueller, 3B

Sandy Alomar Jr., C

Jason Repko, CF

Derek Lowe, P

2006-04-02 11:53:36
22.   King of the Hobos
Furcal's in the lineup today, so he should be good to go tomorrow.
2006-04-02 11:53:52
23.   Daniel Zappala
13 That's just evidence that the Dodgers have really fantastic weather forecasters on staff. Sure, they rely on heavy statistics and simulations, but as long as you're forecasting weather and not players you're on solid ground.
2006-04-02 11:55:09
24.   Moon Shot
I've been reading comments here for quite some time and enjoy most of it and have learned quite a bit in the process. I am troubled a bit by some of the criticisms. I'm sure the Dodger organization makes decisions based on input from many sources, and some of this information is not available to all of us. I guess it is part of being a fan to second guess and criticize but none of us will ever have to take responsibility for what we think should or should not be done. If the Dodgers fail to live up to expectations, somebody will be held responsible and it could mean losing their job. Maybe I'm just overly sensitive since I am a H.S. basketball coach and have to listen to fan criticism quite a bit from people who have never attended a practice or dealt with the entire situation involving preparing and coaching a team. Having said all that, I still feel that this is the best site I have come across and appreciate all the information and opinions from people far more knowledgeable about most things that I will ever be. I've been a Dodger fan since they moved to Los Angeles and remain fervent in my support even though I am now in Giant country. Thanks to Jon and everybody who helps keep me up to date on things.
2006-04-02 11:55:44
25.   King of the Hobos
21 It could be far worse. Good to see Repko isn't at the top of the lineup, but I would have put Mueller in the 2 spot, although putting Cruz there is fine
2006-04-02 11:56:02
26.   Daniel Zappala
21 That's actually not that bad. Not many teams have a lot of production from CF and C anyway. I'm happy to see that Little is not having Repko bat second.
2006-04-02 11:56:15
27.   D4P
I was expecting to see Repko hitting leadoff, not 8th.

In fairness, he probably belongs ahead of Alomar in the lineup...

2006-04-02 12:05:19
28.   King of the Hobos
27 Maybe Little was afraid that with Alomar 8th, he might get on base, and Lowe would bunt into a DP?
2006-04-02 12:09:02
29.   King of the Hobos
Tony Womack will officially lead off for Cincinnati. I think we can all agree Repko is better at leading off than Womack. Alomar may be better leading off than Womack.
2006-04-02 12:13:12
30.   bluedodgerfan
Hello All, I have been reading this site during the off season and finally decided to sign up. I am looking forward to a championship season! I was hoping to get some help on how to get to dodger stadium from union station (the best way) Any ideas?
2006-04-02 12:20:21
31.   slackfarmer
As much as I think Mr. Ned did a poor job putting this club together, I can imagine the club will repeat the bad health luck of last year. But I sure hope Repko doesn't get too much playing time.
2006-04-02 12:26:21
32.   natepurcell
lol tomko... one error and he falls apart.
2006-04-02 12:27:39
33.   D4P

Women's curling on ESPN2 right now!

2006-04-02 12:28:22
34.   regfairfield
32 Just what we needed, another pitcher that does that.

How's Seo after an error?

2006-04-02 12:34:37
35.   popofmondy
Rob Neyer is the most well-informed baseball writer IN THE WORLD!
2006-04-02 12:39:45
36.   GoBears
32 Another theory is that Tomko just isn't very good, and that the error didn't unnerve him so much as simply make him face more chances to screw up.

It was an error, but that ball was hit hard. I'm not excusing the error - just saying that Tomko didn't exactly fool that batter either.

2006-04-02 12:39:58
37.   Andrew Shimmin
24- There's no reason to bet that somebody who hadn't seen what you've seen with your team would have any better idea of what should be done with them. There are reasons to suppose that somebody who'd never seen a game would have made a better decision with Choi, or the Tiffany/EJax for Baez/Carter deal. Most people are pretty good about explaining why they think what they think, so that we're each able to weigh the logic. Agree or don't, either is fine.
2006-04-02 12:40:54
38.   D4P
Another theory is that Tomko just isn't very good, and that the error didn't unnerve him so much as simply make him face more chances to screw up.

Yeah. Is "Performance after an error" a "Sabremetric" concept, or an "old school" concept?

2006-04-02 12:44:41
39.   natepurcell
sweet brandon wood is playing today.
2006-04-02 12:46:44
40.   GoBears
I was away from my computer, on in-law duty yesterday, so I missed ToyCannon's challenge. Sure, TC, I'll take that bet. And if I'm wrong - if Nomar posts an .800+ OPS, I'll be very happy that I was wrong, and to own up to it publicly.
2006-04-02 12:47:44
41.   TheRedMenace
30 - That topic has been covered pretty heavily in the last couple of weeks. A quick stroll through the archives should give you what you need.
2006-04-02 12:48:01
42.   GoBears
Anyone else watching the game who had flashbacks when that pitch hit Mueller on the foot? Ned is living right. If DePo had signed Mueller, that foot would be broken.

Oh great, now Colletti is in the booth with Vinny.

2006-04-02 12:49:49
43.   Bob Timmermann

There really isn't a best way to get from Union Station to Dodger Stadium. Your only connection from Union Station would be to take a regular Metro bus.

You have to pick up Bus 2 at Cesar E Chavez and Broadway (NW corner) and then get off at Sunset and Innes.

And then walk up a very long hill.

2006-04-02 12:52:59
44.   natepurcell
nomar with bases loaded no outs. bring it home nomar!
2006-04-02 12:54:01
45.   GoBears
Hey, Nomar swung at the first pitch! Why would any pitcher ever throw him a strike?
2006-04-02 12:54:18
46.   natepurcell
arghh, he looks terrible.
2006-04-02 12:54:32
47.   D4P
Choi would have gone deep there.
2006-04-02 12:55:25
48.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 27

Why were you expecting that? Can we give Grady the benefit of the doubt before the season begins? I'd rather have Drew in CF, Cruz in RF, and Ledee in LF, but Ledee needs to be left on the bench. And, yes, I know Choi should still be on the roster, but he just isn't, and continuing to grumble about it does no good. And fighting the fight with regards to Milton is, for me at least, pointless.

ZIPS projects Repko to OPS 698 in 2006. Out of NL CFs with at least 100 PAs last year, that would place Repko as no. 18 out of 27 in OPS. Well below average, but I don't see it as quite as dreadful as some posters around here make it out to be. As for his fielding, BPro Rate2 has Repko as an above average fielder in 2005--108 for CF, 105 for RF, and a curious 94 as LF, but he had only 24 games there, as opposed to 58 in CF and 42 in RF. Fielding stats for this small a sample size are dubious, but, really, what's the alternative, to say that he "looks" like a bad fielder?

Oh, and btw, Repko's WARP was 1.7 for 2005 according to BPro, not Willie Mays, but not quite the black hole some make him out to be either.

A lot of posters around here latch on so strongly to a quote here and there from Little and Colletti regarding Repko's scrappiness that when Little shows enough brains to bat Repko 8th, some are shocked, just shocked, because of course these "old school" types can never be expected to make any reasonable judgment with regards to Repko's talent level and ceiling.


2006-04-02 12:55:44
49.   GoBears
Small ball! 2 runs scored on Olneys.
2006-04-02 12:55:47
50.   natepurcell
well little and colletti are both concerned with nomar not doing crap this spring with the bat.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-04-02 12:56:13
51.   sanchez101
Lets hope that Nomar is our starting 1B for as short a time as possible. If only we had another starting 1B on the roster ...
2006-04-02 12:56:23
52.   GoBears
50. ...and with Gagne, he said
2006-04-02 12:56:28
53.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
And now Mueller is done after taking a pitch off the foot? Yikes.
2006-04-02 12:57:30
54.   regfairfield
You never want to hear the following sentence out of your GM:

"I don't know much about Garciaparra's history."

2006-04-02 12:57:40
55.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
Ross is hit, too.
2006-04-02 12:57:40
56.   natepurcell
lol ross HBP on the hand. probably broken finger knowing our luck.
2006-04-02 12:58:04
57.   sanchez101
48. thats exaclty right, ive been harping on this issue for some time. Repko has some positives in a part time role and is young enough to improve.
2006-04-02 12:58:48
58.   D4P
Don't injuries care that our GM is Old School...?
2006-04-02 13:00:41
59.   D4P
Vin on Baez:

"He saved 41, he knows what closing is all about."

2006-04-02 13:05:30
60.   Bob Timmermann
And apparently, much to my disgust and everlasting puzzlement, Friday's pitching by Baez NEVER HAPPENED
2006-04-02 13:12:00
61.   dzzrtRatt
My new theory: Colletti is a product of the Steroid Era. Everything he values made sense in an era when home runs came cheaply, and 38-year-old players could maintain their production. Not just by using steroids, but also by using amphetimenes, which will now also draw you a suspension. Colletti needs to relook at the numbers that made him bet so heavily on Lofton, Mueller, Saenz, Ledee, Cruz, Alomar and Kent, and discount them for all the playing time they'll miss because they're tired and hurt.

In the post-steroid era, there will be a premium on youth and bench depth. The 150-game per year starting player will be a rarity. The Dodgers are strong on veterans and bench role-players. There will also be an emphasis on "get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em home" style ball, but unless Furcal is playing, this team isn't very fast.

Luckily, the Giants and Padres are even worse than the Dodgers in all these respects. But I think the consensus pick of the Dodgers to finish first in the division overrates the team's true potential right now. We're a crapshoot pick, perhaps, but if so, with 85 wins or something. We could also stink up the division and finish last.

I'll hope for better things, but this team won't be ready to really compete in this new era til it can flush most of the weary veterans.

2006-04-02 13:14:16
62.   Uncle Miltie
I like the opening day lineup. Cruz can get on base. Hopefully Grits didn't bat him there because he used to be a 30-30 guy and possibly can bunt. Either Grits learned something in Boston or Roy Smith has more control of the team than we think.
2006-04-02 13:20:32
63.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 61

Hasn't he already discounted them by giving all those players, except perhaps for Kent, short term contracts. Shouldn't we assume that Ned thinks it might be very possible to have a regular lineup of the following by August?:

LaRoche (1B)
Guzman (LF)

We seem to have plenty of youth, it's just at AAA.


2006-04-02 13:31:16
64.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 57

Yeah, I remember you making some similar points before. And Jon's usually been pretty judicious with regards to Repko. But Repko has become in his own way as much a lightning rod as Choi, although Choi was certainly the more valuable player. We'll see what happens...


2006-04-02 13:32:22
65.   dzzrtRatt
63 Maybe, but my sense is that Colletti's got a view of this bridge of veterans that is much sturdier than what he'll really get. I'm not predicting who will go down, but the odds are against full seasons from
Cruz, Kent, Garciaparra, Mueller or Lofton, with the younger Furcal, Drew and Werth carrying some injury history as well. We'll replace some of those guys with AAA players, but if we have to forcefeed too many of them, the result will be a lineup only DT readers will love -- and mainstream fans and media will pressure Colletti to trade for more veteran help.
2006-04-02 13:51:06
66.   Moon Shot
37 - Of course there are reasons to believe that things should be done differently. I hope my comments didn't imply that no one should have differing opinions. I was only trying to make the point that since an outside opinion is not necessarily based on all the facts available to those who make the actual decision, our own opinions can be stated without belittling those who have to take responsibility for the decisions. I just feel that some opinions stated on here have the appearance of being arrogant and condescending at times and I just don't see how anyone can be so sure of themselves without the benefit of all the information that goes into making the decision. But then again, maybe it is just my poor interpretation of the comments, not really knowing the people who make them that well.
2006-04-02 13:58:18
67.   the OZ
65 My own [uninformed] sense of Colletti's makeup stems from his background. He came up as PR guy after graduating from a lousy university. I'm expecting that he got his job by being gracious and making his superiors happy. In this sense, he's always been rewarded for placating the people he worked for/with and not for doing something risky or unpopular.

The reason he seems to love veterans is because no one will publicly critiize him for them. They're not risky moves, he's not sticking his neck out at all, the media already knows the player's name, since they're old, they're relatively cheap, etc. It's pathological.

While he's with the Dodgers, I expect he'll make a ton of mediocre, "safe" moves that don't do much to improve the club from an 88-win team at best. Just enough to keep his job.

2006-04-02 13:58:58
68.   Bob Timmermann

Some people here are very sure of their opinions. Other people are just trying to be witty. Sometimes the two mix together well. Sometimes they don't. It's a mixed bag out here in the world of the Internet.

But everybody gets to have an opinion. But like in real life, some people think their opinions are better than others.

Jon welcomes all opinions.

Unless you say liked "Becker" better than "Cheers".

2006-04-02 14:01:23
69.   Steve
.698 is useless, but it is major league ideology to allow useless players to play. As for Repko, he remains a .290 OBP below average defender. As long as these are considered ill-defined strengths, we remain with the problem that an even mediocre (a lofty adjective he does not yet merit) Repko becomes the walking undead.
2006-04-02 14:05:15
70.   Moon Shot
68 - I have no problem with that one
2006-04-02 14:06:28
71.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 69

What's your evidence that he's a below average defender?


2006-04-02 14:09:30
72.   Steve
See Pinto, David. Also, there is the fact that he can't catch.
2006-04-02 14:09:49
73.   sanchez101
-This isnt going to go anywhere, im not sure this argument is going to change anyone's opinion. Steve and OldBear are of the opinion that Repko is a bad defender, and they have some evidence behind them, but there is just as much evidence behind the opposing view. Luckily opening day is tommorow and we can let the performance on the field speak for itself.
2006-04-02 14:10:46
74.   Bob Timmermann

I rarely have strong opinions. Except when it comes to calling Friday's game a tie.

Or people saying that Matt Vasgersian should ultimately replace Vin Scully. When people say that, I draw a line in the sand. And then I pour scalding acid on that line.

2006-04-02 14:15:09
75.   sanchez101
74. I dont see the appeal of Matt Vasgersian either, but I have a feeling that who ever replaces Vin wont last too long, so maybe we can get him out of the way.
2006-04-02 14:15:14
76.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 73

Fine, everyone can agree to disagree then; I will stand by the assertion, though, that one doesn't have to be a total moron blinded by "ideology" to think that Repko might have some value.


2006-04-02 14:17:02
77.   Bob Timmermann

So you want Vasgersian to be the Dodgers' version of Paul Sunderland?

2006-04-02 14:20:44
78.   sanchez101
77. exactly
2006-04-02 14:23:24
79.   still bevens
I think my problem with Repko is that every error or missed dive he makes gets burned into my brain. Hard to forgive someone when you only remember the mistakes.
2006-04-02 14:24:01
80.   Uncle Miltie
Anyone watching the Lakers game? One of the announcers said that the Rockets GM, Daryl Morey, is an MIT grad and uses similar methods that Bill James uses (he's a sabermetrics GM). Steve Snapper Jones said "It might work in baseball, but not basketball. You have to know the players. He never played the game"
2006-04-02 14:24:02
81.   Bob Timmermann
That Angels pitcher is the closest I'll ever get to professional baseball.
2006-04-02 14:25:48
82.   Uncle Miltie
74- give Dan Shulman whatever he wants. His contract will be up in 2007. He is a great announcer.
2006-04-02 14:26:35
83.   sanchez101
79. Kinda' like how Choi's strikeouts always seemed to get burned into Tracy's brain?

80. I heard that too, amazing that someone with the nickname "snapper" would be unfriendly to a sabermetric approach.

2006-04-02 14:28:34
84.   oldbear
It'd be hard to use sabermetrics in basketball because its almost impossible to evaluate basketball players individually.

At least Little knows how to make a lineup. I like Cruz in the 5th spot. I dont think Kent is going to get much to hit though.

2006-04-02 14:28:48
85.   oldbear
Cruz in the 2nd spot I mean.
2006-04-02 14:31:28
86.   oldbear
I think sabermetrics are great for baseball because its basically a tool that evaluates a player's individual worth, apart from any traditional team dependent stats.

For basketball, what sabre statistics could you really use? Other than free throws, every single basketball play is dependent upon the ability of your teammates.

2006-04-02 14:32:08
87.   sanchez101
84. I think its harder, but not impossible to evualuate basketball players. I think its somewhat similar to evaluating defense in baseball.
2006-04-02 14:34:10
88.   Uncle Miltie
Create a better efficiency rating. They need to make a better system that evaluates defense. has a decent one, but it's still flawed. Right now, guys who get to the free throw line and make their free throws are pretty underrated (Corey Maggette)
2006-04-02 14:35:51
89.   Bob Timmermann
In basketball, the newer stats center around a team's efficiency. How many points does it score per 100 possessions and how many points does it give up in the same amount?

There is also a debate among the basketball people if there is such a thing as a "hot hand"? Do certain players start shooting better or worse at certain times?

2006-04-02 14:36:49
90.   LAT
Bring on the regular season!!!
2006-04-02 14:37:03
91.   D4P
2006-04-02 14:37:15
92.   Bob Timmermann
The basketball people don't have the benefit from as much data as baseball people do and the game's rules change more frequently than baseball's as well.

But guys like John Hollinger and Dean Oliver write some interesting stuff.

2006-04-02 14:39:54
93.   the OZ
89 Last fall, my statistics professor 'disproved' the theory of the hot hand by looking at made/missed baskets in sequence, using old NBA game data.

The results of his findings? No one had a statistically significant 'hot hand'. In fact, Darryl Dawkins (aka Chocolate Thunder) was shown to have a 'cold hand'.

2006-04-02 14:41:18
94.   D4P
Monday just said that this year's club is a "much, much better ball club in just about every phase of the game" than last year's club.

He points to "The locker room, the attitude, and combine that with some ability..."

2006-04-02 14:42:05
95.   LAT
My prediction for this year is the Dodgers will be the 2003 Dodgers without the pitching.

The good news is I don't think we will get off to a 12-2 start making us think our team is something it isn't.

2006-04-02 14:44:04
96.   regfairfield
95 I don't know, I'm pretty sure we won't have four guys put up a sub .300 OBP.
2006-04-02 14:45:30
97.   Uncle Miltie
Antonio Perez is killing the ball! The Giants announcers are praising him right now. Too bad he's such a defensive liability and a one dimensional moneyball player...nevermind mind - he looks much better defensively this year, thanks to Ron Washington. His footwork looks much better.
2006-04-02 14:49:31
98.   D4P
What is Perez' natural defensive position? I can't even remember now.
2006-04-02 14:50:49
99.   oldbear
AP was a SS. He played SS everyday for Vegas in 2004.
2006-04-02 14:51:52
100.   sanchez101
95. You forget that Jolbert Cabrera was the teams second best hitter.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-04-02 15:07:09
101.   MartinBillingsley31
Its hard to make a prediction about this team.
I think alot is riding on the decisions of ned and grady.
I'm predicting that 4 important players will perform subpar (lofton tomko carter brazoban)but i could be wrong , the question will be, will grady pull a tracy with carter and brazoban and use them in important situations, and will ned bring up a few propects to replace any of them.
Also what will ned do at the trade deadline if we are fighting to win the division as i suspect, will ned trade some of the future for mediocrity or for a half year rental.
Also our bench is weak, any injuries will make the team alot weaker (thankfully our worst position player, in my opinion, was the first to go on the DL).

Also everything starts with starting pitching, in my opinion we have average starting pitching, which means we gotta rely on our offense and bullpen.

To me if guzman, billingsley, broxton can get it together ASAP, and be promoted to take the place of lofton tomko and either brazoban or carter, it will make our team better.
Tomko would serve as a good long reliever/spot starter, and lofton would serve as a good pinch runner.
But then again you'd have to deal with hissy fits from lofton and tomko about being demoted to the bench and bullpen.

2006-04-02 15:12:46
102.   rjc41276
80. Steve Jones = Joe Morgan
2006-04-02 15:12:58
103.   oldbear
I think the only thing that can save the offense this year is Jose Cruz having a big year (25-30) HR's, and for Jayson Werth to come back and play CF at his 2004 level.

Basically if your pitching is average and your offense is below average, how on earth can you win more than 80 games?

Stranger things have happened (Nats winning 81 last year when they should won only 69).

2006-04-02 15:13:51
104.   thinkblue0

Flanders at the deadline creeps me out. This team is a playoff team, but probably not a world series contender. If he brings in a huge player like Cabrera then I'm all for it...but if he trades perfectly good prospects for a decent rental I'll be pretty irritated.

What's the latest on Mueller? Am I the only one who thinks ST needs to be shortened by about a week or so?

2006-04-02 15:20:01
105.   Uncle Miltie
102- Snapper really dislikes Elton Brand. He said that Brand isn't clutch and that he wouldn't be in his top 10 for MVP voting.
2006-04-02 15:22:03
106.   sanchez101
103. Where do you get this notion that the offense will be below average? Here is the projected starting lineup with their PECOTA EQA's, .260 is average.

Furcal - .268
Lofton - .255
Drew - .316
Kent - .281
Cruz - .278
Garciaparra - .259
Mueller - .277
Navarro - .250
AVERAGE - .273

only Navarro is considerably below average, and the bench has solid hitters in Saenz, Ledee, and eventually Werth.

2006-04-02 15:22:32
107.   MartinBillingsley31
I think our starting offense is average, not below average, but add in the bench and you have below average overall.
I think our bullpen is above average (only assuming gagne will get it together), but a manager can make an above average bullpen become average with poor decisions.
2006-04-02 15:29:21
108.   MartinBillingsley31

ooopppsss, the first paragraph in 107 should have said, i think our starting offense is average, not below average, but add in the bench and you have slightly below average overall.

2006-04-02 15:32:16
109.   sanchez101
I think the offense SHOULD be better than average. The starting offense is clearly better than average, and while the bench isnt spectacular, its servicable and is backed up by a handful of promising hitters in AAA.

I think the most important part of this season will the the first two months. If the starters can stay healthy, especially in Drew, for the first two months of the season the offense should be fine. After that point Werth and Izturis should be back, and we should have some idea who in Las Vegas can step in and be effective. I think that depth is a biggest issue early in the season.

2006-04-02 15:38:18
110.   oldbear
The starting offense is clearly better than average

Only if you believe Pecota's projections about Nomar at 1st, Lofton/Repko in CF, and Mueller at 3rd. I dont.

No one will convince me that Nomar is anything but a below average 1st basemen.

Lofton/Repko well below average in CF.

And Mueller at 3rd is I'd say average.

EQA does take into account position/ballpark right?

2006-04-02 15:42:03
111.   oldbear
And I went to the BP website and they still have Nomar listed as a SS. Maybe he would have a .259 EQA as a SS, but there's no way he's average as a 1st basemen.

Of course opinions vary. I see Nomar as another Erstad.

Some others think he's going to hit 25+HR's.

2006-04-02 15:44:45
112.   MartinBillingsley31
Nomar 18-20 hrs, only in my opinion.
2006-04-02 15:47:06
113.   sanchez101
110. PECOTA agree's with you on Nomar, on Lofton and on Repko. Repko and Lofton will be below average and it sees Mueller having his worst year since 2002. EQA does take ballpark into account, not position, ie a catcher with a .255 eqa is more valuable than a 1B with say a .260 eqa.

The key is realizing the Dodgers strengths in addition to their weak points. CF and 1B will be below average offensively. 3B and LF should be about average. SS, 2B, and C should be above average. The wild card is RF with Drew; if he's reasonably healthy then RF will be the 4th above average position on the field. Id say having 6 out of 8 positions on the field hitting average or better for their positions is a pretty good formula for a solid offense.

2006-04-02 15:49:48
114.   sanchez101
111. His eqa wouldnt change when a player changes positions. This is PECOTA's line for Nomar:

329 PA 39R 16D 1T 9HR 20W 32K .273/.324/.427

thats seems reasonable to me

2006-04-02 15:50:59
115.   Gen3Blue
Offense-- Truby, Ledee, Ross--1 hit each.
At least our center fielder showed some power in spring training (Ross). Well, at least we are used to trying pitching and defense!
2006-04-02 15:53:56
116.   Gen3Blue
Hey-- Nomar is clearly another Offerman at First. Off had his only qualified success at first, perhaps for different reasons.
2006-04-02 16:01:48
117.   sanchez101
I dont like to say this, but the sooner Nomar goes on the DL the better: a saenz/robles platoon would probably be better as would an izturis/kent right side of the infield. I see the Nomar signing is a roll of the dice, there's like a 1 in 5, 1 in 6 chance of him producing as much as an average starting 1B.
2006-04-02 16:10:18
118.   MartinBillingsley31

Wow, you're saying izturis > nomar
And saenz/robles > nomar

2006-04-02 16:15:24
119.   oldbear
Saenz/Robles versus Nomar would be interesting.

Does Robles have a large platoon split?

I still cant believe he got cut in favor or Lucille II.

2006-04-02 16:19:34
120.   King of the Hobos
Robles hit .273/.332/.374 vs right handers, as opposed to .267/.329/.347 against left handers
2006-04-02 16:23:55
121.   sanchez101
Nomar eqa - .259
Izturis eqa - .226
Robles eqa - .249
Saenz eqa - .267

Its debatable whether the defensive upgrade of izturis over Kent and Kent over Nomar would outweigh the drop in offensive production from Nomar to izturis. As far as replacing him with Robles/Saenz, I think it would work as long as you gave Saenz the majority of the AB's rather than a straight L/R platoon.

If I were the manager, I would play Saenz heavily in the first half and trade him before his eventual second half slump. But if you need him for the whole season I would play robles enough to keep him healthy. I dont think robles has much of a platoon split anyway.

2006-04-02 16:26:19
122.   oldbear
Can Saenz hit right handed pitching? Thats the real question. And will he wear down playing 4 or 5 times a week?
2006-04-02 16:31:29
123.   sanchez101
Saenz looked like he wore down when Tracy used gave him 4 or 5 starts a week. The tomato bruises easily.
2006-04-02 16:31:59
124.   oldbear
If Nomar was to get hurt, I wonder if the Dodgers would go with Saenz at 1st or call up Loney?

I just dont see Kent moving off of 2nd base. Not when he still has hall of fame numbers to pad.

2006-04-02 16:33:26
125.   sanchez101
Kent has said since he signed the extension that he anticipates moving to 1B and is fine with that.

If he's unwilling to move to 1b, I say we trade him to the Mets for Milledge.

2006-04-02 16:37:49
126.   sanchez101
If Loney starts strong in LV (like .350/.425/.550), then he may not be a bad option. PECOTA has him surpasing Nomar offensively by 2008. His defense at 1B is probably better that anyone else in the organization right now, including Nomar, Kent, and Saenz.
2006-04-02 16:40:48
127.   natepurcell
my god, steve phillips STILL thinks gagne had tommy john surgery last year.


2006-04-02 16:47:35
128.   sanchez101
Steve Phillips really sounds like an idiot on TV. I was reading Mind Game the other day and saw this quote, supposedly attributed to Steve Phillips:

"To me batting average is an overrated statistic. It doesn't really tell the whole story like on-base percentage or slugging percentage. Really, that's what offense is: on-base percentage and slugging percentage."

Either he's been misquoted or he dumbs his comments down for an ESPN audience.

2006-04-02 16:47:54
129.   Steve
steve phillips STILL thinks

That is the one thing Steve Phillips doesn't do.

2006-04-02 17:10:07
130.   King of the Hobos
Anyone catch this quote from AZCentral?

The Dodgers' Logan White is regarded as one of the top scouting directors in the game, someone who cut his teeth under such old-school evaluators as Pat Gillick. He sees plenty of value in statistics.

"If I was (a GM)," White said, "I would want (assistants) who have a stronger background in pursuing statistical evaluations than I do. I certainly trust my on-field evaluations more than that part of it."

2006-04-02 17:14:28
131.   Andrew Shimmin
Beating a horse that died a few hours ago. . .

66- I agree with your point broadly, but while we know the limits of our information (or, the vastness of our ignorance, as the case may be), we also have a pretty good idea of what the limits of the information the decision makers have. There cannot be perfect knowledge in baseball, since chance is too big a factor. And since the stated reasons for doing some of the dumbest things done were along the lines of, "Well, I had a feeling about the hit and run, there. . ." giving the insiders the benefit of the doubt is problematic.

When something doesn't make sense, it's always useful to wonder, "What could possibly be true that would make this make sense?" When the answer is, "nothing," then it's stupid. When the answer is anything other than nothing, then it can be assumed stupid until proven so, but it should be made clear that that is only an assumption.

But the general point, that people (the world over) shouldn't pretend to know more than they do, stands. It's the most irritating thing about the gut-feeling types; non-gut-feelers shouldn't pick up their bad habits.

2006-04-02 17:24:48
132.   Andrew Shimmin
131 update- It's a case by case basis. John Schuerholz has earned the benefit of the doubt several times over. Most of the trouble with Colletti in particular (the reaction to whom is what I suppose to have motivated your first post on the topic) is that he has no track record that we know anything much about. Nobody knows exactly what his role was with Giants. Many of us have strong opinions on how the Giants have been run, I should say, but nobody really knows what the division of labor was there. So we're all trying to devine a perfect understanding of him from a dozen plot points; it makes for some interesting graphs. So, a lot of this will come down in, oh, three years, or so.
2006-04-02 17:25:43
133.   Andrew Shimmin
calm down, that should be.
2006-04-02 17:26:39
134.   Andrew Shimmin
Mid-evening comment for the cycle!
2006-04-02 17:26:51
135.   rjc41276
105 - Even more evidence to prove that snapper is an idiot. EB has been awesome this season, anyone that can't recognize that is a fool.
2006-04-02 17:30:25
136.   natepurcell
from rosenthals newest column

The Dodgers believe that two of their outfield prospects, Andre Ethier and Joel Guzman, might be ready later in the season, lessening the need for an immediate trade.

The team pursued the Rangers' David Dellucci earlier this spring, but the Rangers wanted right-hander Jonathan Broxton or a comparable prospect, and the talks fizzled.

2006-04-02 17:34:01
137.   sanchez101
136. Thats interesting because Dellucci is a walks/power guy, supposedly Colletti is interested in speed and defense. I think Colletti is more openminded than he's willing to admit, not sure I blame him. Wasnt Dellucci pursued by Depodesta prior to 2005?
2006-04-02 17:36:05
138.   natepurcell
yea dellucci was depos first choice for a 4th outfielder then he had to settle for ledee.

im glad colletti didnt give up broxton for dellucci.

2006-04-02 17:48:20
139.   screwballin
I just don't see how anyone can be so sure of themselves without the benefit of all the information that goes into making the decision.

Sorry to come back to this after everyone else moved on, but there are some things that don't take much outside input. When a player has an OBP of .290, you don't need much more to know that he's hurting the offense. But it's an open question whether a young player like Repko will improve, so your point is well taken.

If we refrain from rendering an opinion, though, until we are sure we have all the facts, no one will be able to say anything. Such a standard would pretty much stifle all opinion whatsoever. This website, and many others, would cease to exist. Napoleon Dynamite would become president. Armageddon would ensue.

2006-04-02 17:56:40
140.   natepurcell
from BA's daily dish...

Switching over the Dodgers, vice president of player development and scouting Roy Smith is confident that the players making the jump from winning the Southern League title in Jacksonville last season can go on and win in the Pacific Coast League at Triple-A Las Vegas this season. But he's cautiously optimistic, given the recent pitfalls of players--particularly pitchers--who sometimes struggle in the hitter-friendly league.

"I don't think you can expect the same thing as what happened last year in Jacksonville, because of the league and the learning curve," Smith said. "They're going to be facing a lot more veteran guys. I could be totally wrong. They're confident and they're used to winning, which is big. We certainly have confident players--we don't lack in that department."

2006-04-02 17:58:13
141.   MartinBillingsley31

Thanks for that info nate.

I wish GM's would reveal stuff like that to the public like on notes, so the public doesn't have to go dig for it.
But i guess that's one of many things that is good about this website.

It'd be nice if ned would reveal his philosophy (maybe he has and i'm just in denial).

2006-04-02 18:00:18
142.   natepurcell
wow, bad luck for the indians, sabathia gets taken out of the game in the 3rd due to injury. looks like an adominal strain.
2006-04-02 18:04:37
143.   natepurcell
this is interesting, from this BA article:

Dodgers scouting director Logan White, who drafted Tiffany but not Jackson, supported the deal when Colletti sought his opinion.

2006-04-02 18:06:36
144.   natepurcell
The important thing was that Colletti did, in fact, seek White's opinion, along with several other opinions within the organization, before making the trade. And that alone is a radical departure from DePodesta, who seemed to trust no one outside his inner circle--least of all those in the scouting department--and whose inner circle didn't have much of a radius.

"Ned and I hit it off so well right away," White said. "He's such a good baseball guy. Before he jumps into anything, he examines every aspect of it and gets a feel for the whole puzzle. With that trade, I knew we were going to have to give up some talented players. But when you have a chance to get a guy like Baez, I felt like that was a move we had to make."

and more info comes out!

2006-04-02 18:08:30
145.   natepurcell
that article has a ton of good info. i think everyone should read it.
2006-04-02 18:10:17
146.   regfairfield
It certainly lessened my opinion of Logan White.
2006-04-02 18:10:28
147.   natepurcell
okay i think the author of the article is wrong on this aspect.

And lest anyone think the Dodgers stream of prospects is finite, consider this: all indications are the Dodgers will be unable to sign last year's first-round pick, Tennessee righthander Luke Hochevar. They will get one compensatory pick in this year's draft for that, and another for losing Jeff Weaver to free agency after last season.

i dont think we get a comp pick for losing hochevar. can someone confirm?

2006-04-02 18:12:06
148.   alex 7
I'm glad he's consulting with the minor league experts when it comes to dealing minor leaguers. His strength was said to be communication so it doesn't surprise me. It's his MLB-talent evaluation (Lofton, Nomar, Choi) that makes me a bit hesitant.
2006-04-02 18:15:07
149.   alex 7
BA says only 1st rounders not signed get the team a compensation pick the following year.
2006-04-02 18:16:58
150.   alex 7
to clear that up, BA says the Dodgers won't get a pick for failing to sign Hochevar because he's a supplemental 1st rounder. Only the normal 1st round picks net the team a pick in the next draft if they fail to sign.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-04-02 18:18:33
151.   natepurcell
re 150

yea thats what i thought.

2006-04-02 18:24:23
152.   Sam DC
Cleveland ties it up!

And DC Watch: Here's a reason to pull for the Nats: "He used to drive eight hours just so he could boo the Giants." -- Closer (and Californian) Chad Cordero, on his father Eduard Cordero (quoted in "National Pastime" by Post Nationals beat writer Barry Svrluga).

2006-04-02 18:27:50
153.   sanchez101
good info in that article, too bad the tony jackson is an idiot. A summary of the article is basically, "Depodesta was bad and everybody hated him and Colletti is the complete opposite."
2006-04-02 18:29:55
154.   overkill94
152 On the same note as Cordero, has anyone seen the MLB 2005: Season on the Wire show on FSW? Pretty interesting stuff; my favorite part was Derek Lowe joining in with a "Gi-ants suck!" while the crowd was doing it.
2006-04-02 18:30:35
155.   sanchez101
Im hearing Josh Wall's name more often, some scouts love his curveball and compared his build to AJ Burnett. Has anyone heard anything about him from the minor league camp, will he start the season at Columbus?
2006-04-02 18:30:43
156.   natepurcell
re 153

i cant believe jackson wrote an article for BA. was that article in the daily news?

2006-04-02 18:34:20
157.   sanchez101
Just to bash on Jackson's BA article; he claims , "...that alone is a radical departure from DePodesta, who seemed to trust no one outside his inner circle--least of all those in the scouting department--and whose inner circle didn't have much of a radius."
- didnt Depodesta want to promote Terry Collins from farm director to manager, and got fired for it?
- didnt Depodesta and Smith get along fine (at least they did according to a BA piece from 2004), and in fact complemented each other when drafting solid college prospects like Justin Orenduff, Justin Raglani, Anthony Ruggiano, and Sergio Pedroza?
2006-04-02 18:34:46
158.   natepurcell
i dont think the dodgers have announced the roster for minor league teams yet.

re josh wall

i think it depends on his health. he was shut down last yr due to injuries. I assume if hes healthy, he would begin the year at columbus. wall has a very high cieling and in HS, he was compared to AJ burnett.

2006-04-02 18:38:49
159.   GIDP
In ST when I saw the Dodgers play the Tigers in Lakeland, the parking lot guy saw my CA plates and told me a guy from the LA Times had just parked. "What was his name?" I asked, hoping to stalk Plaschke like big game.
"Jackson, I think."
"Tony Jackson?"
"Yeah, that's it."
Does Jackson go around telling people he writes for the Times?
2006-04-02 18:41:31
160.   Gen3Blue
Getting a comp. pick for Hochefuk is mostly bull. This year we get a 1st and a Sup. for Weaver and that gives us 3 in the first 31 or whatever.

Practically speaking, good offensive corner outfielders are relatively cheap (thats where you put a good bat!--so we shouldn't have to give up many prospects to cure our offense for the short haul.
I'm serious. And I'm feeling like we are wimps at bat. I hope our pitching is as good as I think. (and I'm not expecting health from Gagne or that pitcher from Florida with the dead nerve.(sorry --I can't remember names).

2006-04-02 18:41:34
161.   Andrew Shimmin
White'd have to be a slow learner to publically disagree with front office policy, wouldn't he? No matter what he thought, he's not going to say anything other than what he did. It's like polling numbers in un-free countries; maybe they're right, but, well, don't bet your house on it.
2006-04-02 18:57:06
162.   Sam DC
Meanwhile, since nothing else is going this nite before Opening Day, I'll pass on the nugget that the same book I quoted above describes how Cordero took a course at CS Fullerton called "Mental Skills for Sports."

And looking at Gameday, Rochester played Minnesota today? Mayo clinic fundraiser?

2006-04-02 19:03:12
163.   Gen3Blue
It truly begins to look like the Triple A team would probably have better fortune than the major league team in the National West. With Martin catching and Guz ,Ethier and whatzizname in the outfield (I've apologized already for forgetting names) we would be more interesting and possibly better. All we've got in the Major's outfield is that one guy with tools but all the broken wrists and knees! Well, maybe time will move us the right way.
2006-04-02 19:05:20
164.   King of the Hobos

KNES 250 Mental Skills for Sport Performance Summer 2006 , Spring 2006 , Fall 2005
Description: Developing an understanding of the mental aspects of sport performance and learning mental skills that can be used to enhance sport performance. (Credit/No Credit only)
Units: (3)

2006-04-02 19:12:58
165.   Andrew Shimmin
164- Should read, "Clutch/No Clutch only," right?
2006-04-02 19:14:40
166.   natepurcell
im just now watching stults pitch in todays game.

hes a pretty hard pitcher for a lefty, sitting 90-91 with his fb. i was under the impression he was more a "crafty lefty" with a mid 80s fb.

2006-04-02 19:46:40
167.   Uncle Miltie
Is this game going to continue? I have to study for an Econ midterm, but I'd rather watch baseball if the game is going to be played.
2006-04-02 19:46:46
168.   CanuckDodger
157 -- Sanchez, did you mean that DePodesta and White got along well? DePodesta hired Smith. I think DePodesta made White take a number of college players early that White either would not have wanted or thought he was over-drafting. I am sure that White would have preferred to do HIS JOB by himself rather than have to compromise with a GM who was meddling in the scouting director's business. And as far as Ruggiano is concerned -- the Ruggiano who turned out to be a steal in the 25th round in 2004 and whom you give DePodesta some credit for -- I know for a fact that DePodesta was AGAINST taking Ruggiano at all. DePodesta told White that Ruggiano's college stats were too mediocre for him to be worth even considering, but a scout on White's staff who saw Ruggiano play swore up and down that Ruggiano had potential and should be drafted. White trusted his scout and since it was only a 25th round pick DePodesta didn't fight it, even though he thought White was wasting a pick.

As for Jackson's article and the picture it paints of DePodesta, I think it is accurate. There are too many other sources that corroborate that DePodesta did not consult scouts in the organization. I am sure that White was glad to see DePodesta get canned. I know that White and many others in the Dodgers organization are opposed to the plan to reorganize the minors in a way that would eliminate the lowest level of rookie ball, making it harder to sign high school players rather than college players, but DePodesta supported the plan regardless of the fact that the Dodger personnel who have to draft and develop young talent think the reorganization would be a huge blow to the Dodgers.

Also, there are rumors that DePodesta was responsible for the whole Hochevar fiasco. DePodesta wanted Hochevar, supposedly, even though White believed that Boras representing Hochevar posed a big threat to the Dodgers ever getting Hochevar signed. McCourt is STILL furious about the Hochevar mess, and I have heard it was a factor in DePodesta getting fired. This Hochevar stuff, I emphasize, is a RUMOR. I am personally not standing by it, given that the source for the rumor seems to be unsourced gossip that has not appeared in any news media. But it has the ring of truth because of what we know about White's preferences and DePodesta's preferences. When we made the Hochevar pick last June I was absolutely stunned, because it seemed so opposite to the direction White would go, given what I know about White.

2006-04-02 19:54:44
169.   LAT
Sam, is there any news about the Nat's ownership issue? I can't believe they are going to open the season without awarding the team. It is so unfair to the DC fans. I have heard rumor that MLB wants more money for the team. Once again, the handling of this fanchise is being butchered by Bud.
2006-04-02 19:55:44
170.   sanchez101
166. Stults could be a pleasant suprise if he can keep the walk rate down and his groundball tendencies up.
2006-04-02 19:59:27
171.   King of the Hobos
170 Is Stults a groundball pitcher? His G/F ratio sure doesn't agree: 0.89 at Jacksonville, 1.21 at Vegas.
2006-04-02 20:03:54
172.   das411
Ew, I definitely did NOT need to see Rob Schneider's "sixth tool" just now, ugh.
2006-04-02 20:04:41
173.   natepurcell
I know for a fact that DePodesta was AGAINST taking Ruggiano at all. DePodesta told White that Ruggiano's college stats were too mediocre for him to be worth even considering, but a scout on White's staff who saw Ruggiano play swore up and down that Ruggiano had potential and should be drafted.

i just looked up ruggiano's stats. these were his college stats

2003: 236AB 322/.403/.555
2004: 149AB .275/.391/.409

not really someone a computer would pick up as a sleeper.

2006-04-02 20:05:10
174.   D4P
Is it generally assumed that G/F ratios are completely determined by the pitcher, or is it possible (for example) that "better" hitters are more likely to hit one type of ball (e.g. flyball/line drive) more than another (e.g. groundball)?
2006-04-02 20:06:22
175.   D4P
not really someone a computer would pick up as a sleeper.

Yeah, but this is not your normal, run-of-the-mill computer we're talking about here...

2006-04-02 20:14:41
176.   Andrew Shimmin
Is there a typical sort of 25th round sleeper? I'm not going to rip on Logan White (and I don't really care what he thought of DePo) but 25th round sleepers have got to be mostly a matter of luck, haven't they? How many White 20+ rounders are worth anything?
2006-04-02 20:15:49
177.   King of the Hobos
174 A sinkerballer can affect his G/F ratio, like Webb. I believe pitchers have some effect on it, but I'm not familiar with any relation other than extreme sinkerballers
2006-04-02 20:16:08
178.   Sam DC
LAT -- lots of rumors on blogs and in the papers that it's going to be the lerners in the next couple of weeks, often including the notion that Stan Kasten will merge with the lerner group and take charge of baseball operations. One report said that mlb is concerned about sufficiency of minority representation in the lerner group; I don't know the details and/or if that could be juggled at this point.

But who knows. From a business perspective, the honeymoon of the inaugural season has been quite dissipated over this ownerless, marketingless offseason where the two big stories were (i) stadium nightmares, and (ii) trading everyman Brad Wilkerson for primadonna Alfonso Soriano. Right now home opener is not nearly sold out. A good winning streak would likely cure all that, but not many folks are predicting such a thing . . .

2006-04-02 20:17:09
179.   Sam DC
And oh -- I have not seen any reports that the price is going up, but I've wondered about it. If 8 groups are willing to pay $450 million, seems likely that some of them would be willing to pay more.
2006-04-02 20:19:48
180.   King of the Hobos
173 Those 2003 stats are essentially Ruggiano's career minor league stats, so it's not like his hitting is a complete surprise.

2003: 322/.403/.555
Professional: .324/.414/.527

2006-04-02 20:24:25
181.   LAT
I have to believe the Lerners are in the lead if only becasue I have asked my step-father and he says Teddy (Mark's father) isn't discussing it. My step-father is the one who told me there was talk of raising the price. Light ticket sales and fan appathy do not bode well for raising the price of the team. Needless to say if I were a Nats fan I would be really unhappy Bud has let the issue drag on past opening day. Its really unfair.
2006-04-02 20:30:08
182.   Suffering Bruin
Does anybody have background information on Logan White? Where he played baseball, what he did before joining the Dodgers, etc?
2006-04-02 20:46:39
183.   bill cox
Entering the discussion late here,but I am not at all dismayed over Lofton on the dl.The signing seems like a stretch more than any other free agent signing.How much can he have left in the tank.Maybe Repko or Ross will surprize.Or out of Guzman,Ethier,D. Young,Kemp,Ruggiano,Raglani maybe someone else will come through.Let youth be served sooner than later.What would stink is in May having a sub .500 team full of 35 year old .230 hitters.
2006-04-02 20:52:12
184.   Andrew Shimmin
174- There's a piece by Dave Studeman in the new Hardball Times book, called, "What's a Batted Ball Worth?" I didn't actually read it (thought I'm pretty sure I saw a precursor on IIRC, line drives are the best. It's not a direct correlation to quality, though. There are useful slap hitters and garbage linedrive or nothing, types.
2006-04-02 21:01:49
185.   natepurcell
so is the game going to continue tonight?
2006-04-02 21:02:40
186.   Steve
Oh yeah. These tickets. Right field pavillion, bought on a lark, but no way I can go for various and sundry reasons that have nothing to do with pessimism or protest. Anybody want them? No purchase necessary. You'll be sitting as close to Jason Repko as you can get I believe, so big fans should get in line. Offer subject to my arbitrary whim. They're e-tickets, so they can be e-mailed quickly.
2006-04-02 21:09:05
187.   D4P
Hmmm...the big fans don't seem to be clamoring...
2006-04-02 21:11:13
188.   sanchez101
186. when is the game?
2006-04-02 21:17:05
189.   Steve
1:10 PM, I believe. Falferall and Bricabrac before the game. First pitch to be thrown out by Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta. Fly-over by Jet Blue Airlines. As discussed yesterday, history is likely to be made if someone goes to a game with my tickets.
2006-04-02 21:26:12
190.   King of the Hobos
Looks like the game's back on. Almost 11:30 local time, not many people left
2006-04-02 21:28:22
191.   D4P
It's raining again. Hard.
2006-04-02 21:34:08
192.   D4P
Speaking of hard, Jim Thome just hit a ball a long way.
2006-04-02 21:37:11
193.   natepurcell
future dodger brandon mccarthy is now pitching for the sox.
2006-04-02 21:41:25
194.   natepurcell
first game of the year was a let down.
2006-04-02 21:43:15
195.   D4P
Your expectations are too high.
2006-04-02 21:44:48
196.   natepurcell
jon miller lead me on, he said they were calling the game!
2006-04-02 21:44:49
197.   jujibee
Well, living up in Sac doesn't bode well for me catching many games live, but I did manage to buy tickets for 2 of the 4 Rivercats vs. 51s games going on next weekend, one set behind first base 6 rows deep and the other set in between home and third 23 rows back. I'll be there friday night and sunday afternoon. I'm set on making it a weekend thing, but don't have tickets yet for the other 2 games. Worst case scenario would be lawn seats on Sat and Monday, but I'm trying.
2006-04-02 22:00:01
198.   Xeifrank
Should be interesting to see what happens with the weather and the first two games. Here is the LA forecast from the NOAA.
2006-04-02 22:03:58
199.   Andrew Shimmin
Steve- I talked to my dad tonight and he really wants to go to the game. If they're still on offer, I'd love to mooch them off of you.
2006-04-02 22:13:53
200.   Steve
Done and done. I do not endorse rowdyism, even if Repko is in center.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-04-02 22:22:24
201.   Bob Timmermann
I don't trust the right field pavilion dwellers to come up with any sort of derisive chants toward Jeff Francouer.
2006-04-02 22:25:12
202.   Andrew Shimmin
Thanks Steve! I'm calm, cool, and collected by nature, but I don't know that I can be responsible for the old man. If any arrests are made, I promise that your name will not be mentioned.
2006-04-02 22:31:11
203.   Xeifrank
202. BYOB. Bring Your Own Beachball... and probably umbrella too. Gonna be a sloppy field for the first two games. vr, Xei
2006-04-02 22:39:27
204.   Bob Timmermann
Repko is a mudder so the off track won't be a problem.

I think Tuesday is the bigger problem. That's supposed to be the worst day.

Coachjpark may be hosting a doubleheader.

2006-04-02 22:42:53
205.   LAT
If the field is wet either day I just assume have Mr. Drew sit it out. With his luck he will slip on the wet grass and blow his knee out.
2006-04-02 22:43:26
206.   Andrew Shimmin
We're hoping for an incident free day, so I'll neither a beachball bringer, nor beachball buster, be. The umbrella, though, seems wise.
2006-04-02 22:44:01
207.   LAT
Repko is a mudder so the off track won't be a problem.

Yes but will he be wearing blinkers and does baseball allow lasix?

2006-04-02 22:49:22
208.   Icaros
Wasn't Repko's mother a mudder?
2006-04-02 22:53:43
209.   Bob Timmermann

I suppose Repko could ask for Lasix if he has to give a urine sample after the game.

2006-04-02 23:12:01
210.   Bob Timmermann
Hope everyone enjoys Opening Day as I'll likely be off with my brother and niece at Disneyland tomorrow.
2006-04-02 23:51:15
211.   Eric L
201 I'd imagine that the left field pavilion dwellers (I spent 12 games with them last year) would come up with some witty chant that included something with cursing or Jeff's sexual orientation.

We'll see how the right field pavilion does tomorrow. I'm pretty sure that I haven't sat with the right field folks before.

2006-04-03 00:08:35
212.   natepurcell
scully hates bonds too!

well he didnt exactly say that, but he doesnt want to be the one to call bonds homerun that breaks the record.

2006-04-03 01:02:15
213.   LAT
I don't think Vin has to worry about it taking place anywhere other than AT&T Park.

My favorite part of the article by far was this:

And, said Oakland outfielder Milton Bradley: "I think the fact that, over the years, he hasn't been the classiest guy, or whatever you want to say, ties into it. That's life."

First, I love that Bradly basically calls Bonds classless. I give him credit for having the nerve. Second, its a riot that its Milton of all people talking about class. Was it class when you threw the bottle in the stands? Or how about my favorite, the bag of balls all over the field? What about the race card with Jeff Kent. Or should we stick to off the field stuff, like domestic abuse, evading arrest or serving time. I love him as a ballplayer and wish the Dodgers kept him but I'm not sure he should be talking about who has class and who doesn't.

2006-04-03 01:08:56
214.   LAT
Instead of Home Depo or Ghame Over shirts, this year the DT legion can go with this shirt. I'm thinking about buying one just to really piss off a good friend who loves Barry.

2006-04-03 07:36:12
215.   Sam DC
LAT -- Boswell says an owner for the Nats in the next two weeks, but doesn't pass on any rumors about who.

2006-04-03 07:40:13
216.   D4P
I can't keep the secret any longer.

It's me.

2006-04-03 07:41:21
217.   Suffering Bruin
Bill Plaschke wrote an article today and instead of it being a walk down amnesia lane, it was memory lane for me.

One of the great things about being in local media is that you get to see a lot of high basketball for free. It's especially fun during the CIF playoffs. Ask Jon, he'll tell you.

I never saw a better high school basketball player than Ed O'Bannon. Before he injured his knee, every coach I talked to, be it college or pro, said the same thing: O'Bannon would be a three-time All-American (do they even have All-American teams anymore?) and almost certainly one of the best players ever.

The injury took away the explosive leaping ability I saw when he wore Artesia's uniform. Whenever I see his name, I always wonder what might have been.

2006-04-03 07:42:23
218.   Suffering Bruin
216 So what's your first move? I assume Bowden in in safe hands? :-)
2006-04-03 07:50:25
219.   D4P
Bowden has done a great job.

I've been fielding calls from the Dodgers's GM regarding the availability of Felix Rodriguez and Royce Clayton. Colletti has some minor leaguers he's trying to unload.

I'm also shopping Nick Johnson. That guy strikes out too much for my taste. Plus, I talked to Alf and he said he'd rather play 1B than the outfield.

2006-04-03 08:00:16
220.   Sam DC
I thought you were going to move Bowden to team President and bring in Tom Boswell as operations guy?
2006-04-03 08:04:45
221.   D4P
Already taken care of, my friend.
2006-04-03 08:54:15
222.   underdog
220 No, close, he's bringing in Tom Bosley actually.

Btw, chiming in late here but I would be much more worried if I were a Padre fan than a Dodger fan about injuries and depth. The Padres are really thin - I wasn't so sure about their starting lineup before these two injuries hit them. Meanwhile, I wouldn't worry about the Dodgers that much, especially since, not only is it a long season, but Lofton will be back in 10 days or so. I agree with Jon that an extra bench player would have been nice over an extra pitcher, but again, this could change really quickly.

Meanwhile... any chance the game actually gets played today? (fingers crossed)

2006-04-03 09:29:21
223.   Vishal
[213] think of it this way, LAT -

milton bradley probably knows better than anyone that when you have a record of churlishness, the media is gonna hammer you for it. i don't think he was condemning bonds for not being the classiest guy. he was saying that if you act like a jerk, you're not going to get sympathy, and that's just how it is. i think bradley was being descriptive rather than normative in his statement.

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