Baseball Toaster Dodger Thoughts
Jon Weisman's outlet
for dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers
and baseball.
Frozen Toast
Google Search
Dodger Thoughts

02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

09  08  07 
About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Heading South
2006-04-28 10:09
by Jon Weisman

In posts here and here, Dodger Math has started analyzing the Dodger offense using a Hardball Times statistic called Value Added Batting Runs. Some of the individual rankings might surprise you; the overall picture might depress you.

Stepping back, although the Dodger offense has had trouble tallying (meaningful) runs since it left Pittsburgh two weeks ago, it is still outscoring the opposition overall this season, 110-100. Despite lousy starts in two of the team's last five games from Jae Seo and Odalis Perez, the team ERA over the past week is 3.75.

Seo starts tonight for the fourth time this year. I'm gonna voice my hunch that he does well against the San Diego Padres, who lack a single regular with an OPS over .800 and are last in the National League in runs per game, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

By the way, I do want to pass along my belated congratulations to Mike Piazza for his 400th home run. He may be staring at the final months of his career, but what a special ballplayer he has been. The greatest-hitting catcher of all time, he had 10 consecutive .900+ OPS seasons and 12 consecutive over .800. And with all his power, he never struck out more than 93 times in a season.

* * *

Tonight's Game

Comments (388)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-04-28 10:45:13
1.   adamclyde
How similar is the Value Added Batting Runs to what you were trying to do with the impact of home runs? I wonder if they are related and could serve as a model for your stat.

just a thought, but now I need to actually go and read up on the value added batting run stat to begin with...

2006-04-28 10:45:51
2.   adamclyde
How similar is the Value Added Batting Runs to what you were trying to do with the impact of home runs? I wonder if they are related and could serve as a model for your stat.

just a thought, but now I need to actually go and read up on the value added batting run stat to begin with...

2006-04-28 10:46:08
3.   adamclyde
and now for the hat trick... (sorry)
2006-04-28 10:50:17
4.   rageon
For those of you with Prospectus accounts, you may want to check out the Prospectus Matchups articles today. Near the end, there's a section about teams that got the highest/lowest percentage of production from their "starters." Last years LA team had the 5th lowest for in the last 40 years or so. What it says:

.558: 2005 Los Angeles Dodgers (71-91; 4th in National League West)
Injuries unraveled this lineup from nearly top to bottom with only Jeff Kent staying healthy or competent long enough to get the minimum 502 plate appearances in. Eighteen players had at least 100 plate appearances as the Dodgers scrambled to patch a broken outfield. At least they have that rock of lineup stability now, Nomar Garciaparra.

2006-04-28 10:52:09
5.   regfairfield
1 Not at all similar. VABR doesn't care about the context of the hits, in fact, it goes out of its way to eliminate context.
2006-04-28 11:03:36
6.   Jon Weisman
Submitted without comment:

2006-04-28 11:10:31
7.   bigcpa
Hee Seop has 6.6 VABR in 60 pa's. :(
2006-04-28 11:13:36
8.   Kayaker7
6 JT: a martyr for the smallball cause.
2006-04-28 11:17:41
9.   Johnson
6 Noted without comment. ;-)

As far as Value Added Batting Runs - this stat looks from a cursory glance to be very similar, at least in spirit, to the wOBA stat used by Tango et al in The Book except that it's not converted to a rate stat. I can't vouch directly for the values of each outcome in VABR, but they look qualitatively the same as those used in wOBA and were probably calculated the same way. This looks to be a great stat that effectively captures the offensive value of a player independent of the team they play on. Neat-o. Now if Kent and Furcal could pull their numbers up...

2006-04-28 11:24:16
10.   LAT
6. I'll comment. Any poll that puts Filepe Alou ahead of Little (or any other manager, yes including Jim Tracy) is not worth the electronic paper its printed on.
2006-04-28 11:31:03
11.   regfairfield
10 Dusty Baker and Frank Robinson take offense.

Which is worse: a manager who has no clue about in game strategy, and gives away outs like they were candy, or a manager that stunts the teams growth by not playing young players, and burns out his starting pitchers?

2006-04-28 11:32:24
12.   Kayaker7
a manager that stunts the teams growth by not playing young players, and burns out his starting pitchers

Sounds like Dusty.

2006-04-28 12:04:55
13.   ryu
In "the greatest-hitting catcher," is the hyphen unnecessary?
2006-04-28 12:07:05
14.   screwballin
13 Omitting the hyphen changes the meaning subtly.
2006-04-28 12:12:45
15.   ryu
No hyphen's needed in ...

"The oldest active Dodger."
"The fattest lazy cat."
"The tastiest apple pie."

2006-04-28 12:13:42
16.   ryu
oops... make that "No hyphens needed in ..."
2006-04-28 12:14:33
17.   ryu
Yes, it's been a slow day at work for me. :-)
2006-04-28 12:14:51
18.   screwballin
15 True. But in Jon's sentence, the hyphen makes clear that it's Piazza's hitting, not his catching, for which he's the greatest. Which would be an understatement.
2006-04-28 12:16:29
19.   Kayaker7
The meaning does changes slightly, and the examples you gave are not equivalent.

"Greatest-hitting" in its entirety is a modifier of "catcher." If you leave out the hyphen, "greatest" only modifies "catcher."

2006-04-28 12:16:34
20.   Jon Weisman
I could have gone without it, I think, but I don't think there's harm in having it.
2006-04-28 12:18:19
21.   natepurcell
okay so i made up a new metric last night.

Its called Expected Value of a PA(plate appearance), or E(PA).

It measures a players offensive capabilities and the expected outcome of each plate appearance. For example, if a player's E(PA) was 2, then expected outcome of all his PAs would be 2 bases.

The formula is:
Probability of getting on base X Mean Value of bases

mean value of bases=
total amount of bases divided by # of times on base

single, hbp and bbs all count as one base.

From fooling around with it and finding about 20 or so player's E(PA) from last yr, it seems that anything above .60 is in the very good catagorey. Anything above .65 is elite.

some players E(PA)
Jeff kent: 0.5702
Albert Pujols: 0.6657
Ichiro: 0.4721
Furcal: 0.4781
Derrek Lee: 0.69860
Juan Encarnacion: 0.49397

This stat doesnt really measure speed, so stolen bases arent taken into account. It is not park adjusted so the numbers are not optimized across the board. And it would be better put in context to find the league average E(PA) for every position to see how each player stacks up.

For example, Encarnacions E(PA) is higher then furcals but furcal is still the more available offensive player because his E(PA) is probably on the high end when it comes ot shortstops and Encarnacion's is on the low end when it comes to corner outfielders.

2006-04-28 12:18:58
22.   Kayaker7
Check that. Without the hyphen, "greatest" would modify "hitting catcher." That sounds like there is a category of "hitting catchers" and they were evaluated for greatness, which may include other things besides just hitting. With the hyphen, it makes it clear that only the hitting part is being evaluated. Clear as mud?
2006-04-28 12:49:24
23.   screwballin
Damn, we killed the board with hyphen talk. So, uh, how bout those Dodgers?
2006-04-28 12:52:52
24.   Bob Timmermann
"This is the least-interesting discussion of the uses of punctuation isn't it"? Bob asked.

I would prefer to discuss this list of topics;
1) Grady Little
2. Middle-relief
3 Jeff Kent

2006-04-28 12:53:48
25.   natepurcell
In 5 years instead of people using OPS, everyone is going to be like "wow look at Derrek Lee, he is having a hell of a season, his E(PA) is 699!
2006-04-28 12:55:47
26.   Kayaker7
24 You mean "Middle relief?" ;-)
2006-04-28 12:56:37
27.   Inside Baseball
6 Jon, do you remember what Tracy's approval rating was when you first saw the page? Because now it's at 18% and sliding fast. Do I think DT readers are giving JT a little payback? Why yes I do.
2006-04-28 13:02:35
28.   Johnson
24 You forgot one topic:

d: Becker

2006-04-28 13:03:48
29.   TheRedMenace
24 - That is brilliant.

Jon, is the title of this post related to this week's discussion of the boardmember's, uh, respective hitting ability?

2006-04-28 13:03:52
30.   screwballin
OK then, does anyone want to reveal how he voted for Grittle in the manager's poll? Is DT a strong thumbs down on him? I couldn't bring myself to do that, for these reasons:

1) Sticking with Navarro and giving him a vote of confidence instead of playing Alomar more;
2) Putting Cruz in the 2-hole when other managers would have put a slap hitter there. (And I, for one, am happy to have Lofton there also if he keeps getting on base for the sluggers.)

But as I voted my approval, I wished I had a "jury's still out" option. Because I may only be reacting to my feeling that he's an improvement on the stiff we had last year.

2006-04-28 13:04:04
31.   D4P
For example, if a player's E(PA) was 2, then expected outcome of all his PAs would be 2 bases.

That seems very similar to SLG, except that it includes HBPs and BBs. If a player's SLG is 2, then the expected outcome of all of his ABs would be a double. (right?)

2006-04-28 13:04:10
32.   Curtis Lowe
21- That's some pretty intriguing stuff Nate.

Is anyone else concerned about Martin coming up next year and being as bad as Navaro is this year thereby giving the Dodgers 3.5 straight years of horrible catchers?

2006-04-28 13:04:29
33.   natepurcell
This might be controversial, Jason Repko is having a better season then JD Drew so far this year.

Drew E(PA)= .6397
Repko E(PA)= .6511

2006-04-28 13:04:35
34.   Jon Weisman
27 - It was at 14 percent when I first saw it.
2006-04-28 13:05:10
35.   screwballin
And yeah, I voted against JT and enjoyed it.
2006-04-28 13:05:56
36.   Andrew Shimmin
Whom would ever have guessed Bob to be such a flame-baiter?
2006-04-28 13:06:20
37.   Jon Weisman
29 - No, I've moved on ...
30 - I abstained.
33 - That doesn't account for how often they've played though, right? It's a rate stat? I assume Cody Ross tops them both.
2006-04-28 13:09:20
38.   natepurcell

no it doesnt put into account how often they played but drew with 72ABs is pretty close to repko with 57ABs.

If i have the time (which i dont this weekend), i want to find the average E(PA) for all positions to use as a point of reference.

2006-04-28 13:10:45
39.   Inside Baseball
34, 27 - Blasphemy I say. I urge Steve to rally the troops.
2006-04-28 13:11:30
40.   D4P
Nate - I think you should blaze a trail and be the first to give players credit for reaching via error, and not give them credit for getting HBB. Makes more sense to me that way.
2006-04-28 13:12:37
41.   natepurcell
Is there a way to find if a player reaches on base via error besides going through every box score and recording it?
2006-04-28 13:12:40
42.   screwballin
Now we know JT's mom has broadband.
2006-04-28 13:16:50
43.   Eric Enders
Jack Snow's wife?
2006-04-28 13:19:54
44.   natepurcell
well i am going to go play tennis now. If some of the mathmaticians on here can tinker around with my formula to make it more useful or so, it would be appreciated.
2006-04-28 13:22:24
45.   Eric Enders
44 I think that's exactly what Einstein said after discovering relativity.
2006-04-28 13:27:04
46.   Bob Timmermann
Retrosheet keeps track of "ROE" (reaching on error), but that won't help you until the season is over.

In the 19th century, reaching on an error was often part of the boxscore. But there were a lot of errors.

And I'm guessing that I've seen many more 19th century boxscores than the rest of the gang here.

2006-04-28 13:32:16
47.   natepurcell
one more thing.

i compared bonds 2001 yr to his 2004 year. 2001 was when he hit 73 homers but 2004 he out OPSed his 2001 yr by 43 points.

E(PA) 2001- .8999
E(Pa) 2004- .8811

so even though he had a better OPS his 2004 year, his 2001 yr was the best year comes out to be better.

2006-04-28 13:32:21
48.   Eric Enders
I guess I fail to understand why ROE should count and HBP should not. I think they should both count toward OBP.

And while we're at it, can we please abolish the scoring distinction between wild pitches and passed balls? Just lump 'em together into one category. Often the scorer appears to just be doing "eenie-meenie miney moe" anyway when making the call. Not to mention all the cross-ups and the problems inherent in trying to decipher whose fault they were.

2006-04-28 13:37:18
49.   Eric Enders
New Neil Young album now available for free online listening, in case anyone forgot:

2006-04-28 13:37:57
50.   D4P
I guess I fail to understand why ROE should count and HBP should not. I think they should both count toward OBP.

I give the hitter more credit for the combo of

(1) putting the ball in play and
(2) potentially causing the fielder to rush (though, of course, not all errors are the result of rushing)


(1) standing there and getting plunked, rather than successfully getting out of the way as you are theoretically supposed to try to do if you can.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-04-28 13:39:48
51.   Bob Timmermann
While on the topic of scoring pet peeves, I will bring up mine. And I surprisingly meet a lot of resistance to this.

I don't like the double error on one play.

Ground ball to the third baseman. He can't come up with it cleanly (error #1) and then he throws it away and the batter goes to second (error #2).

But consider this scenario, batter hits a grounder to third. Third baseman airmails throw in to the stands. Batter ends up at second. But that's just one error. The end result is the same.

To be it's more important that the play be described by the magnitude of the screw up in total. Not by picking apart the play. If the fielder boots a ball and compounds it by throwing it away, isn't almost always a case that the player rushed his throw because of the initial boot.

Or consider an outfielder who drops a fly ball and the batter makes it to third. That's three bases. But just one error.

Whenever I bring this up, I'm told to shut up and sit down.

So I will.

2006-04-28 13:40:58
52.   Bob Timmermann


2006-04-28 13:45:17
53.   D4P
Whenever I bring this up, I'm told to shut up and sit down.

Next time you raise the issue, try it while sitting down. At least that way your audience can only tell you to shut up.

2006-04-28 13:48:10
54.   Bob Timmermann
I'd prefer if someone just told me to go "peddle my papers."

That was used as an insult on an episode of "The Bob Newhart Show" and I've never understoof what it meant.

2006-04-28 13:49:30
55.   Eric Enders
Bob Newhart was apparently a member of the Peddling Your Papers Marching and Chowder Society.
2006-04-28 13:51:02
56.   Inside Baseball
There is a god:

Giants deal reliever Walker to Tampa Bay

April 28, 2006

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- The San Francisco Giants traded right-handed reliever Tyler Walker to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Friday for righty pitcher Carlos Hines.

2006-04-28 13:51:58
57.   Jon Weisman
53 - LOL

48 - I don't have many problems with the way wild pitches or passed balls are scored. I don't mind the distinction, and I don't disagree with the decision most of the time.

51 - I guess I just see errors as counting mistakes, not a measurement of how bad the mistakes are. I definitely wouldn't mind another stat that did that, though. But I don't see a reason to redefine what an error is.

And of course, measuring defense by errors without accounting for plays made is flawed.

2006-04-28 13:52:27
58.   Bob Timmermann
That was on the Griddle three mintues before your post went through.

Although knowing the way posts get time-stamped, we were liking typing it at the same time.

2006-04-28 13:53:26
59.   Bob Timmermann

I took the advice and sat down before reading that.

2006-04-28 13:53:35
60.   Jon Weisman
2006-04-28 13:53:36
61.   Xeifrank
51. Don't they have something called "two base" error and a "one base" error? In your example you'd have 2 one base errors and in your other example you'd have 1 two base error. Sounds good to me. Perhaps instead of keeping track of how many errors, you could keep track of adding up all the bases each player's errors cost. In your two examples, the thirdbaseman would be charged with two bases.
vr, Xei
2006-04-28 13:55:16
62.   Bob Timmermann
I like that idea. Maybe FSN Prime can make that a column on the linescore!
2006-04-28 13:57:36
63.   D4P
But not at the expense of the Fielder's Choice column!
2006-04-28 13:58:14
64.   Inside Baseball
58 What do you think gave me the idea to check Yahoo about it? ;)

Bob, I bow down to your greatness. I'm beginning to think Bob Timmerman is actually the name of a group of 38 different mensa members who have joined forces to bring greater knowledge to baseball fans and ultimately, change the way the game is scored.

2006-04-28 13:58:22
65.   Eric Enders
Then would you agree with the conclusion -- which you could reach from passed ball totals -- that most of the worst defensive catchers of all time happened to catch, say, Phil Niekro?

Really my main problem -- and I say this as someone who's been an official scorer -- is that official scorers shouldn't be given discretionary opportunity to judge a player's intent.

This comes into play with the cross-ups, and on a few other occasions --
- Is it a sac bunt, or was he bunting for a hit?
- Was it a steal, or defensive indifference?

Basically, I think that for consistency's sake, we shouldn't ask scorers to make those kinds of calls. They should be able to judge physical actions and mistakes, but they shouldn't be asked to read the players' minds.

2006-04-28 13:59:17
66.   Kayaker7
64 I thought Bob was the perpetually smiling guy in the Enzyte commercial.
2006-04-28 14:00:41
67.   Eric Enders
61, 62

The big distinction should not be between one-base and two-base errors, but between those errors that allow a batter to reach base and those that don't.

An outfielder's bobble on a single-and-error play is relatively harmless compared to dropping a routine fly ball, since the former didn't allow the runner to reach base.

2006-04-28 14:03:24
68.   Bob Timmermann
I don't think I'm going to change any scoring rules. The error thing is just my Grampa Simpson-esque way of being a crank.

"Grampa, that flag only has 49 stars."
"I'll be dead in my grave before I recognize Missouri."

2006-04-28 14:03:27
69.   OaklandAs
Nate, your stat is (Prob of Getting on Base X Mean Value of Bases). This can be broken down to: (Times on Base/Plate Appearances) x (Bases/Times on Base) so you end up with something like (Bases / Plate Appearances).

This is very similar to Boswell's Total Average stat. Total Average is a pretty good stat, but not quite as good as Runs Created or Linear Weights. I think the error occurs because it treats as a BB and 1B as equal, when they are not (1B advance more runners than BB), and it treats a 2B as twice as good as 1B, when they aren't.

Remember, OPS is only a rate stat, and does not take playing time into account. That's why Bonds' 2001 and 2004 look different. But OPS is very easy to calculate, and that's why it is more popular than RC, LW, or Total Average, even though they all correlate slightly better with Runs Scored.

2006-04-28 14:04:59
70.   Johnson
64 How in the world do 38 MENSA members share a cat?
2006-04-28 14:08:29
71.   Xeifrank
62. Don't get me started!!! :)

Today's Dodger/Padre game simulation is coming up soon.
vr, Xei

2006-04-28 14:11:03
72.   Eric Enders
And if they're all that smart, how come none of them know Spanish (at least judging by the name they gave their organization)?
2006-04-28 14:13:32
73.   gcrl
i am going to go way off topic, but i feel the need to share a mensa story. there is a "welcome dinner" here in mn held monthly to welcome new members. the one i went to had every mensan stereotype you can imagine in attendance. from the host reciting hypoglycemic indices of the various pastas being served to the hostess speaking to her diapered 2 year old in latin to the guy sitting at the table in silence rocking back and forth, it was quite an event to behold. my conversation starter, which was rather useless, was "how 'bout them twins?"
2006-04-28 14:13:58
74.   Bob Timmermann
Having errors on the linescore in this day and age isn't very useful. It made more sense say in, 1895, but today who really cares?
2006-04-28 14:14:38
75.   Steve
70 -- very thin slices
2006-04-28 14:16:02
76.   Bob Timmermann
BTW, now that Eric is here, I retract my statement in 46 about reading the most 19th century boxscores.
2006-04-28 14:17:29
77.   Eric Enders
76 The absence of pitching lines is so maddening.
2006-04-28 14:18:47
78.   Bob Timmermann
And "earned runs" in the boxscores from then meant something completely different from what it means today I believe.
2006-04-28 14:18:53
79.   King of the Hobos
72 Wrong language I believe. Mensa is Latin if I remember correctly
2006-04-28 14:19:15
80.   das411
More to the point, how long has Bob really been Tommy John in hiding???

(notice the three question marks, hint hint hint...)

2006-04-28 14:22:02
81.   Linkmeister
73 If Bat-girl was there you could have gotten quite a conversation going.
2006-04-28 14:23:17
82.   Marty
Eric, thanks for the Neil Young link. I'm listening now.
2006-04-28 14:40:37
83.   Inside Baseball

Bibliophiles Observing Baseball:
Thirty-eight Interested Mensa Members Eagerly Recording Minutiae About Nation's National (pastime)

2006-04-28 14:43:19
84.   Kayaker7
72 Is "mensa," as an insult, really Spanish, or is it a Mexican slang?
2006-04-28 14:48:36
85.   Linkmeister
Phew. Young's album is some kinda rock n' roll, at least the first four or five tracks.
2006-04-28 14:49:24
86.   Bob Timmermann
For the record, I'm not a member of Mensa. I suppose I could pass the test to get in. When I finally attended public school in high school, I got pulled out of class and was given a test. I apparently scored high enough on it and then I had "MGM" stamped on my permanent record. "Mentally Gifted Minor" was what I was told.

The end result of this was that my high school got a few extra bucks from the state of California for me sitting around and playing Strat-0-matic baseball when I was bored in class.

2006-04-28 14:51:29
87.   D4P
"MGM" stamped on my permanent record

Do they still consider you a "minor"?

2006-04-28 14:51:36
88.   Kayaker7
86 Sounds like when Bart was on Focusin.
2006-04-28 15:10:48
89.   Christina
Slammed at work, but a friend sent me this link and I just had to pop in and share because part of it came up in discussion a little while back. Jon, please take a look at #16 and accept that you were living in some kind of bizarro alt-California, not the California the rest of us live in. Heh heh.

2006-04-28 15:10:52
90.   Blu2
(54) Bob, I/ve heard that phrase,'Go peddle your papers" all my life and I'm 65 years old so I assume it is much older than Bob Newhart. I think you appreciate language as much as I do. I am constantly looking up words and phrases to see their origins.I couldn't find anything on this phrase but here is an interesting web site you might enjoy using to look up phrases. I just looked up "letting the cat out of the bag".
2006-04-28 15:15:21
91.   oldbear
I'm wondering how Tom Roune assigned values to each specific play he cited in his piece. Did he run a multiple regression of runs scored versus all those different factors (singles, doubles, IBB, BB, etc)?
2006-04-28 15:20:36
92.   Xeifrank
Just finished the sim for tonight's game. The first three innings gave signs of an impending pitchers duel, but that soon went by the wayside. The Dodgers broke things open with two runs in the top of the 4th with singles by Lofton and Drew and a walk to Nomar to load the bases. Mueller then came through with a 2-run double. The Padres drew blood with a solo HR by B.Giles in the bottom of the inning. The Dodgers lead grew to 4-1 in the top of the 6th inning when Drew hit a one out double and Jeff Kent singled him home. Nomar walked again and J.CruzJr hit a two out RBI single chasing C.Young. The Padres tied the game in the bottom of the 6th as 6 men in a row reached base and J.Seo was knocked out of the game. Nobody scored for the next 6 innings as once again the bats went silent. The Dodgers had two men on with no outs in the 8th inning, only to have S.Linebrink shut the door on their rally. The Dodgers also had bases loaded with two outs in the 11th but J.Drew grounded out to 3B. The Padres threatened to score in each of the extra innings and actually had the bases loaded with 1 out in the 11th inning but were turned away. The Dodgers scored in the top of the 13th when D.Navarro hit a one out single, pitcher D.Baez bunted Navarro to 2nd base. Furcal then followed with a 2-run blast to put the Dodgers up 6-4. In the bottom of the 13th Cameron and Giles made quick outs, followed by back to back singles by Piazza and Gonzalez. K.Greene ended the game... with a deep fly out to left field. Dodger hitting stars of the game were Nomar who went 1-2 with 4 walks and R.Furcal who went 2-7 with the game winning HR. Giles and Piazza were the hitting stars for the Padres. WP-D.Baez, LP-Caddidy
Time: 3:51
Attendance: 00,001
vr, Xei
2006-04-28 15:21:11
93.   oldbear
I also think that while breaking down everything through (singles, doubles, triples, IBB, BB, Sac) is relevant in measuring past performance, I'm not sure how predictive it really is.

Can one really anticipate how many IBB a player will have the following year? Or CS'ing, or triples, or hits for that matter? It would seem most of those things fluctuate.

I'd still look at OPS + park factors + experience curves in place of the VABR when making predictions for the future.IT seems VABR encorporates things that are highly volatile from year to year.

2006-04-28 15:25:10
94.   Bob Timmermann
My high school "permanent" record was lost in the 1994 Northridge earthquake when Kennedy High's main building, the imaginatively named "A Building" (as opposed to B, C, D, M and S) was red-tagged.

It was really weird to drive by there and see the building gone.

So without a permanent record, do I have to go back to high school and get a diploma again? And if so, do I have to apply to college again later? Or can I just use the applications I had for UCLA and Stanford? Stanford put me on their waiting list back in 1983. Am I still on it?

2006-04-28 15:33:57
95.   Kayaker7
94 I hear that is how a lot of Chinese immigrants attained citizenship status, right after the SF earthquake.
2006-04-28 15:41:30
96.   Bob Timmermann
Looks like "Go peddle your papers" means that the person being told that is considered to be lowly or too stupid to hold a respectable job and is nothing more than a paperboy selling newspapers.
2006-04-28 15:49:45
97.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
Hate to be the bearer of bad news:
NEW YORK (AP) — Steve Howe, the relief pitcher whose promising career was derailed by drug and alcohol abuse, died Friday when his pickup truck rolled over in Coachella, Calif. He was 48.
2006-04-28 15:54:04
98.   Gen3Blue
I've skimmed the comments and haven't seen much(I could have missed something) about the rotation. After the day off we have the option of skipping one of our bottom rotation guys( Soe and Tomko). Apparently, we are complacent enough in our position to stay the course, and go with that stable rotation. On the east coast, the Mets did exactly as the D's are doing, and are taking an incredible amount af heat in the papers and talk shows.(which are big back here) Do we really want to give s. and Tomko more starts than we need to? I admit, after seeing are last few starts maybe we do. But what do you think?
2006-04-28 15:55:18
99.   Eric L
97 I just saw that when I clicked on the "Rush Limbaugh has been arrested" link over at Fark. Imagine my suprise when link was wrong and the Steve Howe blurb popped up.
2006-04-28 15:56:50
100.   Bob Timmermann
Thanks for the news.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-04-28 15:58:27
101.   Gen3Blue
You mean Limbag wasn't killed?
2006-04-28 15:59:38
102.   Nagman
98 Pads are doing the same thing. Peavy could go on Sunday but he's not.
2006-04-28 16:00:28
103.   thinkingblue

And yet, Repko is riding the pine in favor of Cruz, despite leading the team in stolen bases, and being second on the team in home runs.

2006-04-28 16:04:22
104.   Marty
MGM. Man, I haven't seen that term in awhile. I was one of those in junior high. It was the worst two years of my life. I got put into an all-day class with about 30 other people, none of whom were my friends. I absolutely hated it. The teachers were not that great and the classes were boring. When I got to high school I deliberately failed the test they gave me so I could avoid the whole thing.
2006-04-28 16:04:24
105.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
Howe exited the Dodgers for the last time in the season I first started following them - 1985.
I know Vin would occasionally break out tales of woe in relating bad trades that were attempts to fill Howe's spot in the bullpen.
2006-04-28 16:05:39
106.   Johnson
96 I'll avoid saying anything about a former "old friend".
2006-04-28 16:08:16
107.   Bob Timmermann
Say hello to:

Carlos Diaz
Ed Vande Berg
Matt Young
Brad Havens

The bigger problem actually was that the Dodgers had a lefty reliever in their system named John Franco, but they traded him to Cincinnati in 1983 for utility infielder Rafael Landestoy.

Not quite Delino for Pedro, but I'm pretty sure that Franco finished ahead of Landestoy in Win Shares by an enormous margin.

2006-04-28 16:10:22
108.   fawnkyj
Has anybody noticed Edwin Jackson is in the 6th inning at Durham with out giving up a H_T.
2006-04-28 16:11:17
109.   Eric Enders
Heck, I think Chad Krueter lasted 'til the seventh at Wrigley before he gave up a hat.
2006-04-28 16:13:11
110.   regfairfield
93 VABR isn't designed to track the future, it's simply a performance metric, just like OPS or VORP.
2006-04-28 16:15:52
111.   Gen3Blue
I guess thats a relief.(102) The whole strategy seems flawed. When BB went to a 5-day rotation rather than the standard 4-day, there was possibly some sense, but the thought that a starter can be sharp pitching every 6 day seems ridiculous. Well, this is a chance to see. I have put foward the theorum that due to overexpansion or dilution or whatever, we will soon have 10 starters who go 3 innings each.
2006-04-28 16:17:06
112.   natepurcell
VABR isn't designed to track the future, it's simply a performance metric, just like OPS or VORP, or E(PA).


2006-04-28 16:18:39
113.   sanchez101
108. that is the weirdest line ive ever seen. neither team has recorded a hit yet (through 5), durham is up 1-0. Jackson has no hits, 4 walks and 4 K's in 5 innings. I wouldnt get terribly excited though, his control has been terrible as evidenced by 4 walks and only 38 strikes out of 68 pitches.
2006-04-28 16:19:34
114.   Steve
I'm liking the EPA, Nate. It's not quite there with CORP yet, but you have something.
2006-04-28 16:23:30
115.   Xeifrank
I may be missing something here, but how does this EPA differ from SLG%, other than perhaps one not counting BB and HBP?
vr, Xei
2006-04-28 16:24:11
116.   natepurcell
Brandon Woods E(PA) of his sick 2005 season in A+ is .700. So he was basically the derrek lee of the California League.
2006-04-28 16:28:06
117.   natepurcell

you're probably right. lol.

2006-04-28 16:28:23
118.   Steve
Sometimes, I wish I could find what was left of my soul and feel bad while I listen to Pirate games. Doesn't ever happen though.
2006-04-28 16:31:00
119.   natepurcell
should I add different weights to the HBP and bbs so they arent weighted the same as a single?
2006-04-28 16:33:09
120.   Uncle Miltie
No comment on Howe's death, though I'm surprised that it didn't involve coke (i'm not joking around). Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if drugs or alcohol were involved. Kind of sad how he was never able to overcome his addiction.

Why is Furcal going to play tonight? With Seo going against Young, I'm expecting another loss, though Petco should help Seo keep the ball in the park.

Lakers play tonight....Go Suns!

2006-04-28 16:36:40
121.   fawnkyj
Well Edwin gave up the no-hitter.
2006-04-28 16:37:42
122.   Kayaker7
113 The Bulls scored on a Choi catching error. :-(
2006-04-28 16:44:30
123.   LAT
Steve Howe died today in an accident. Sad

2006-04-28 16:46:42
124.   Lasordas Lasagne
If anyones interested, I have 2 tickets in LOGE 142, row O, for Friday May 5th against the Brewers. If anyone is interested, I'll let both go for below face value. $30 each, and we'll work out shipping.

email me at if interested.

2006-04-28 16:46:55
125.   LAT
Of course, the Griddle was already on this. Sorry Bob.
2006-04-28 16:46:57
126.   natepurcell
Who was the worst offensive starting player last year in baseball?
2006-04-28 16:47:50
127.   Kayaker7
126 I would guess Mr. Busyfingers: Jason Kendall.
2006-04-28 16:49:31
128.   OaklandAs
126 Christian Guzman
2006-04-28 16:50:01
129.   D4P
2006-04-28 16:51:19
130.   regfairfield
Going by VORP it was Corey Patterson. Other candidates down there include Miguel Olivo, Christian Guzman, Tony Womack and Timo Perez.
2006-04-28 16:51:22
131.   natepurcell
127, 128

LOL, I ran the numbers for guzman and then right afterward, kendall. I guess we all think alike.

2006-04-28 16:51:43
132.   Bob Timmermann
To be accurate, someone else pointed it out to me.
2006-04-28 16:53:15
133.   Kayaker7
130 VORP is a counting stat, no? Isn't there a VORP stat that is a rate stat?
2006-04-28 16:54:24
134.   Kayaker7
The Durham-Pawtucket game is tied now.
2006-04-28 16:56:07
135.   Kayaker7
oops. Now anymore. It's now 2-1 Pawtucket.
2006-04-28 16:56:11
136.   D4P
I ought to go check out one of Edwin's performances this season, given that I live about 5 minutes from the stadium.
2006-04-28 16:56:12
137.   regfairfield
133 VORP is a counting stat. MLVR is a rate stat that VORP is based on that doesn't adjust for position or park factors.
2006-04-28 17:00:24
138.   D4P
Lest you think it's too early to begin evaluating player performance, on-line voting for the 2006 All-Star Game is now open.
2006-04-28 17:00:24
139.   natepurcell
cristian guzman- .349
jason kendal- .389
corey patterson- .380
tony womack- .305

womack was the worst!

2006-04-28 17:01:09
140.   Kayaker7
138 The Griddle has some good picks.
2006-04-28 17:10:39
141.   Bob Timmermann

I could have loaded up on Dodgers on my picks, but the guys with the bad offensive totals are famous enough (Garciaparra, Furcal, and Kent) that they would still be getting votes from people who just pick names they recognize.

Hey, that sounds like Ned Colletti!

2006-04-28 17:13:00
142.   OaklandAs
139 That's mainly because your stat ignores Womack's useful 27/32 SB rate, and because your stat is closer to SLG than OBP.
2006-04-28 17:14:59
143.   natepurcell
the SB is a good idea. Should i account for stolen bases. Because a single and a SB is almost like a double.

How should i weight stolen bases and caught stealings?

2006-04-28 17:18:22
144.   Granfallooner
I'm surprised to see so little comment on Steve How's death. His sad story always stuck with me. He didn't just seem like a spoiled athlete losing control. Perhaps I was fooled by that sort of country-boy look, but he always seemed overwhelmed by it, like Michael Ray Richardson (of the New York Knicks). A sad ending to a sad tale.
2006-04-28 17:19:16
145.   Eric Enders
I was wondering about the absence of Furcal. And is Mike Jacobs really the worst 1B?
2006-04-28 17:19:22
146.   regfairfield
142 He had a .276 on base percentage. He had nine extra base hits, five after April. All this and he spent most of his time in left field. Womack was easily the worst hitter in baseball last year.
2006-04-28 17:19:25
147.   Steve
143- with concrete shoes
2006-04-28 17:24:42
148.   Bob Timmermann

You had to be bad and unknown. Like the Pirates.

Not bad and well-known. Like most of the Dodgers infield.

2006-04-28 17:33:25
149.   OaklandAs
146 Well, Womack was horrible, but Guzman had an even worse .256 OBP, and Patterson was at .251. At least Womack contributed something with his base stealing. Put it all together and I think Guzman was the worst offensive player in the majors last year.
2006-04-28 17:42:26
150.   Steve
Define "something"
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-04-28 17:43:54
151.   natepurcell
Brent Leach's current line down at columbus.

5IP 2H 0ER 0BB 14K


2006-04-28 17:43:58
152.   Kayaker7
Durham-Pawtucket game is pretty exciting, abeit via Gameday. Durham tied it up in the top of the 9th. Choi up to bat in the bottom of the 9th for Pawtucket.
2006-04-28 17:44:28
153.   natepurcell
Define "something"

thats what i need to know too. How much should i penalize each CS?

2006-04-28 17:45:24
154.   natepurcell
nfl draft news...

texans and mario williams agree to terms on a contract!

doesnt mean the texans will not take bush anymore, just means they have a fallback option now.

2006-04-28 17:48:19
155.   Eric Enders
"the texans will not take bush anymore"

It would have been nice to hear that in, oh, 1994.

2006-04-28 17:50:39
156.   Bob Timmermann

If the Texans want to draft Reggie Bush, they would have to trade with somebody.

I hope Reggie enjoys New Orleans.

2006-04-28 17:51:08
157.   DXMachina
I'm watching the Red Sox-Tampa bay game, and the Sox announcers are talking about the fact that Terry Francona apparently had Alex Cora warming up to pitch at the end of last night's blow out by Cleveland.
2006-04-28 17:51:49
158.   Dark Horse
151--Wow! School me on Brent Leach...
2006-04-28 17:52:20
159.   Telemachos
154 If the Texans don't take Bush, they are utterly insane.

The Saints have to be feeling pretty happy right about now, though. Can you imagine the crazy offers that'll pile up? And the worst case scenario is they get Bush to help Drew Brees.

2006-04-28 17:55:02
160.   Eric Enders

Leach won the Pioneer League ERA title last year with Ogden, but he was very old for rookie ball and thus isn't considered much of a prospect. (According to BA, he's not one of the top 30 prospects in the Dodger system.)

2006-04-28 17:55:15
161.   Steve
Is Brent Leach not an alumni of the finest university west of the Mississippi River?
2006-04-28 17:56:21
162.   King of the Hobos
Leach lasted those 5 innings. He now has a 3.86 ERA in 23.1 IP, with 35 Ks. His last outing was terrible, and he walks a lot of guys (now 14 on the season), but Columbus is proving to be about as much of a challenge as Ogden was
2006-04-28 17:58:04
163.   oldbear
14k's in 5ip is a little league stat line..Of course, the Sally League isnt that far removed from little league.

Why is Pedroza still down there? Isnt he way way too old to still be playing in a low A league?

2006-04-28 17:58:33
164.   OaklandAs
153 Check out this web site about Linear Weights and Runs Created:

2006-04-28 17:59:00
165.   Eric Enders
161 I believe Delta State is slightly east of the Mississippi. But only slightly.

Delta State is in the same conference as North Alabama, where my brother played. Leach was out with Tommy John surgery that year, though, so they never got to face each other.

2006-04-28 18:03:41
166.   Steve
153 -- I think you need to be careful if you want to add in SB/CS, because, technically I don't think it is true that a single and a stolen base is the same as a double, or to put it another way, their value is not the same. The threshold event in any batter's at-bat is the difference between making an out and not making an out. From that act derives the vast, vast majority of the value of his at-bat one way or the other. Once the player has already succeeded in not making an out, everything else is marginal -- in fact, one could argue that the only thing a stolen base attempt does is put a safe runner back in danger (oh, ok. That's what I would argue.) It seems like then taking into account stolen bases would overweight their value -- a problem which doesn't need to be exacerbated.
2006-04-28 18:04:59
167.   Eric Enders
If nothing else, because a single+SB doesn't have the same possible RBI value as a double.
2006-04-28 18:06:11
168.   Steve
I'm confusing Leach with Horlacher -- they were drafted close to each other, and you can't spell Horlacher without L e a c and h.
2006-04-28 18:07:48
169.   Marty
Fire Joe Morgan takes my favorite "columnist" Mike Celizic to task about his rant on the "misuse" of Mariano Rivera. Torre used him for two innings in a tie game! Mike thinks he is only effective in save situations. It's really quite funny.

2006-04-28 18:08:16
170.   OaklandAs
166 Well, a 1B+SB is basically the same as a 1B as far as advancing other baserunners, but it is closer to a 2B as far as scoring the batter. Similarly, a 1B+CS advances other runners the same as the 1B, but reduces the player's chance of scoring himself greatly.
2006-04-28 18:16:28
171.   oldbear
According to ESPNNews, I guess the Texans are passing on Reggie Bush.
2006-04-28 18:19:17
172.   Steve
170 -- But all that is the marginal stuff. Where the rubber hits the road is whether a batter makes out or doesn't make out. In that, a single and a double are the same. That's not to say that there isn't a difference, there clearly is. But the RBI potential of the double over the single only increases the value of the double relative to the single, and as far as scoring, that is wholly dependent on what batters behind him do.
2006-04-28 18:24:09
173.   natepurcell
okay im using the (SB*.3)-(CS*.6) and adding it to the total amount of bases.

womacks oringal E(PA)= .305
womacks E(PA) w/ SB weight= .320

marginal increase but still the worse offensive player in baseball.

2006-04-28 18:26:39
174.   Marty
Worse than Jose Reyes?
2006-04-28 18:27:07
175.   gvette
Despite the drugs, the suspensions, Carlos Diaz and the havoc caused in his life, and the Dodgers, it's very sad to hear about Steve Howe.

If nothing else, there will always be the picture of him celebrating the last out of the '81 Series.

2006-04-28 18:28:47
176.   natepurcell

yea significantly worse. Reyes comes out to .421, which isnt bad for a SS.

2006-04-28 18:29:23
177.   Steve
That would be about 5% of his overall value, which seems fair intuitively.
2006-04-28 18:30:43
178.   natepurcell
the .3 for SB and .6 for CS is from that linear weights site OaklandAs posted earlier.
2006-04-28 18:33:43
179.   walbers
just curious whether you all have seen the news that Steve Howe died in a car accident this morning in Coachella CA? rgds, will
2006-04-28 18:38:10
180.   natepurcell
okay i have to go to some sorority formal now so im going to miss the game. But i probably wont miss anything significant i assume. Anyways, go dodgers!.... and vikings.
2006-04-28 18:46:18
181.   Eric Enders
No Eric Young in the lineup tonight. Too bad -- it would have been interesting to see how many strikeouts the Young family could have posted against the Dodgers tonight. Eric Young, Jr., struck out three times against Brent Leach and Columbus tonight.

EY Jr. did, however, reach base on one of them, thereby enabling Leach to K four batters in the first inning.

2006-04-28 18:48:55
182.   oldbear
Eric Young has a son playing? Wow. I'm getting old.
2006-04-28 18:51:14
183.   Eric Enders
So is he, I guess.
2006-04-28 18:55:10
184.   oldbear
The Rockies sure did rip off the Dodgers in that expansion draft. Was EY pre or post- delino?
2006-04-28 18:57:27
185.   Bob Timmermann
If anybody dropping by tonight has memories of the final game of the 1962 NL playoff between the Dodgers and Giants could you drop me a line.

I'm working on a piece about it for the Griddle.

2006-04-28 18:58:11
186.   Eric Enders
Suns game was tied 1-1 in the 7th, but now they're losing 3-1 after LaRoche let a ball get through his legs on which 2 runs scored.
2006-04-28 19:00:03
187.   Eric Enders
November 17, 1992: Eric Young drafted by the Colorado Rockies from the Los Angeles Dodgers as the 11th pick in the 1992 expansion draft.

November 19, 1993: Delino DeShields traded by the Montreal Expos to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Pedro Martinez.

2006-04-28 19:04:48
188.   Icaros

And unless I'm completely remembering things wrong, the Rockies took Jody Reed from Boston and flipped him to LA in that same expansion draft.

2006-04-28 19:06:02
189.   Eric Enders
And then spiked him badly in one of the first games ever played between the two teams, IIRC. (I always hated Galarraga after that.)
2006-04-28 19:11:34
190.   Icaros

Me too. I also hated him for charging Darren Dreifort.

Later I hated him for being a lousy stinking Giant.

2006-04-28 19:15:37
191.   underdog
What are the odds Dave Roberts tries to steal on the Dodgers here? 1 to 1?
2006-04-28 19:18:11
192.   Bob Timmermann

I remember that game. Bobby Cox was really angry at Dreifort in that game. He contemplated at one point moving his starter in to the outfield and bringing in his worst reliever to bean Dreifort and have that guy ejected and then go back to his starter.

Fortunately for Cox, one of his coaches talked him out of this plan as I'm sure he would have been suspended for a very long time if he had tried that.

2006-04-28 19:18:55
193.   Bob Timmermann

So what were the odds on "won't try to steal"? What was the payoff? 40 to 1?

2006-04-28 19:20:32
194.   Eric Enders
Is anybody else having problems with Gameday Audio tonight?
2006-04-28 19:21:14
195.   Bob Timmermann

My TV seems to be working fine? ;-)

2006-04-28 19:21:28
196.   Bob Timmermann
Dang it. Too much punctuation there!
2006-04-28 19:22:01
197.   dbenzen
Ok, Sparky Anderson says to wait 40 games before you judge the team. Yet for all the nifty Ned Colletti moves in the off-season, this Dodger group looks just average to me. Maybe I just don't bleed Dodger blue anymore, or is it the thought of $3 per gal gas and another meaningless .500 season that's got my expectations so low?
2006-04-28 19:24:11
198.   Bob Timmermann
You get gas for just $3/gallon? It's $3.25 in my neighborhood.

I will now take this moment to assert my moral superiority over many of you by saying I own a Prius.

You don't buy a Prius for the gas savings. You buy a Prius in order to belittle others and annoy people by driving in the carpool lane and make the flow there worse.

2006-04-28 19:28:39
199.   Eric Enders
$6 for a bottle of water? Sounds like Turner Field.
2006-04-28 19:28:40
200.   Bob Timmermann
I think Vin Scully can afford to raid the hotel minibar.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-04-28 19:28:58
201.   D4P
Nomar is saving up his HRs and RBIs. No reason to use them all up now.
2006-04-28 19:28:59
202.   oldbear
So do you think if the Dodgers had given EY a legit chance at 2nd base, they would have never dealt Pedro Martinez?

I cant remember why EY never got a chance in LA. Its not like that team had great 2nd basemen back in the early 90's.

2006-04-28 19:29:15
203.   be2ween
197 One of the best Vin Scully interviews I ever saw was with Sparky last year up in the booth. Sparky and Vin just loved talking with each other. Sparky said that O'Malley said once that Vin was the only person he knew that had never asked the Dodgers for anything. It was beautiful.
Re: the Texans not taking Bush. WHAT KIND OF A WORLD DO WE LIVE IN?! Oh wait, I wonder if they know something about possible fall-out from the lease/ agent stuff, or do they just think their Defensive needs outweigh the best athlete down the pike since possibly Gale Sayers?
2006-04-28 19:29:33
204.   Gen3Blue
Oh-my-god no DTV tonight! I'm stuck with Gameday.
2006-04-28 19:31:53
205.   Eric Enders
Young was let go because the team didn't believe his defense would be good enough to play 2B in the majors.


It's a Dodger rule that if you are a good hitting second baseman in the minors, your defense is automatically assumed to suck, and you have no future at the position. See T. Denker and D. Young for latest examples.

2006-04-28 19:32:23
206.   oldbear
203. Bush has never carried the full load as a running back. I think his potential durability issues are scaring teams off. Its hard to take a RB #1 overall if you only have confidence in him to carry 15 times a game.
2006-04-28 19:33:34
207.   oldbear
Young was let go because the team didn't believe his defense would be good enough to play 2B in the majors

Another reason why I hate defense. Typically if I dislike something long enough, I pretend it doesnt really exist. Does defense actually exist? I've cast it out of my galaxy.

2006-04-28 19:34:51
208.   Bob Timmermann
Question to ponder:

When the Dodgers return home will they have a moment of silence for Steve Howe?

The Yankees did tonight.

2006-04-28 19:35:39
209.   be2ween
I know. I used 'that' three times in a single sentence. I've GOT to use the preview option henceforth.
2006-04-28 19:37:43
210.   Linkmeister
185 Check your mail. I remember that game.

I'm getting the Angels game on Prime Ticket. Grrr.

2006-04-28 19:39:01
211.   Linkmeister
I kinda think the Texans need O-Line help to protect David Carr more than they need a running back. OJ didn't carry the Bills to any championships, as I recall.
2006-04-28 19:39:30
212.   underdog
193 (delayed reaction) I forgot to take into account the Padres relative incompetence when it comes to manufacturing offense. I guess that trumped the Dodgers' when it comes to throwing out runners. In that inning anyway. But yes, it would have been a handsome payoff. Oh well there's always next... inning.

208 And yes, I think they will.

2006-04-28 19:40:17
213.   underdog
211 I agree, I thought if they didn't want Bush they should have gone with Ferguson. Carr's been battered. They need defense too, but... it's all pretty head-scratching.
2006-04-28 19:41:40
214.   underdog
Anybody else ready to jump on the replace Cruz with Repko in the starting lineup bandwagon?
2006-04-28 19:42:47
215.   Linkmeister
Hawai'i gas price picture:

2006-04-28 19:44:32
216.   oldbear
Better athlete: Mark Hendrickson, Chad Hutchinson, or Chris Young?
2006-04-28 19:45:47
217.   sanchez101
211. While that is true, the Texans shouldnt be thinking about winning super bowls at this point, they should be worried about fielding a respectable team. Bush would also be the first star-calibre player in that franchises history. Worrying about catching the Colts, or advancing deep into the playoffs is kinda silly. Mario Williams doesnt bring them any closer to the super bowl than Reggie Bush anyway.
2006-04-28 19:46:12
218.   be2ween
211 You are absolutely right. Carr was hammered relentlessly last season. I think they may have made some pick-ups in the off-season to help address that.
Buzz is that Vince Young will go to Tennessee even though Chow wants Leinart. Tomorrow will be verrrrrry interesting!
2006-04-28 19:48:48
219.   oldbear
I actually did a mock on a Rams site, and after this Bush news I have him sliding to 4th. I figure the Saints wont take Bush with Deuce there. The Titans need a QB. So that means the Jets would draft Bush, which would be a great pick for them since Curtis Martin is on his very last legs.
2006-04-28 19:49:35
220.   oldbear
Also in terms of marketing, I think Bush and his agent would prefer New York, over Nashville and New Orleans. It works out for eeryone involved.
2006-04-28 19:50:39
221.   gcrl
with no access to the dodger game, i am stuck watching disney channel with my son. lo and behold, danica mckellar is on some show speaking french.
2006-04-28 19:52:01
222.   Zak
Is that really that high? I saw $3.21 at more than a couple of gas stations in the Valley yesterday for Regular.
2006-04-28 19:52:08
223.   Bob Timmermann
Albert Pujols hit his 13th homer tying the record for the most in April (Griffey and Luis Gonzalez). And he has two more days left in the month.

And in one of them Zack Day will be starting!

2006-04-28 19:52:25
224.   Zak
222 was in response to 215
2006-04-28 19:54:21
225.   Eric Enders
So Griffey could very well have his two biggest MLB records both broken tomorrow.
2006-04-28 19:55:41
226.   Bob Timmermann
Mench can only tie Griffey's consecutive games with homers record tomorrow.
2006-04-28 19:55:41
227.   D4P
The defending NL West division champions are pretty horrendous.
2006-04-28 19:56:25
228.   Bob Timmermann
I picked the Padres to win the division.

I also picked the Reds to finish last in the NL Central and they have the best record in the majors right now.

2006-04-28 19:56:55
229.   Linkmeister
222 It's high only because we supposedly have a wholesale price cap which doesn't seem to have done a lick of good. You Ca. folks, Alaska and Hawai'i have the highest prices in the country, I think.

Off to cook.

2006-04-28 19:57:40
230.   D4P
You should have picked the bad teams to finish poorly and the good teams to finish well.

That's my secret.

2006-04-28 19:58:32
231.   oldbear
Mike Cameron must be feeling the pressure of taking up a bench spot on my fantasy team.


2006-04-28 20:00:34
232.   bigcpa
Vinny has said numerous times that both teams have struggled to score runs this year. SD is 29th in the majors in runs. The Dodgers are pacing to score 810 runs... the most they've scored since 1962.
2006-04-28 20:01:18
233.   bigcpa
231 Ha! I have Cameron on my bench too.
2006-04-28 20:01:49
234.   Eric Enders
Khalil Greene says "Take that, Timmermann."
2006-04-28 20:03:34
235.   Bob Timmermann
Even the blind Bahai follower occasionally finds a pop fly.
2006-04-28 20:03:58
236.   D4P
Unlike certain other outfielders, Cody Ross is evidently not injury-prone.

Cody Ross was hit on the left hand by a pitch that he swung at as a pinch-hitter on Friday night. X-rays found no fracture. Ross, who was making his first appearance with the Reds, is day-to-day with a bruised hand.

2006-04-28 20:04:06
237.   Jon Weisman
So, Jeff Weaver?
2006-04-28 20:04:21
238.   Bob Timmermann
I believe Ken's Kendall Fast is over.
2006-04-28 20:04:24
239.   Steve
230 -- Joe Morgan patented that method -- you owe him royalties.
2006-04-28 20:05:47
240.   Jon Weisman
So, Jeff Kent?
2006-04-28 20:07:01
241.   Eric Enders
So, Jeff Lebowski?

So, Jeff Goldblum?

I like this.

2006-04-28 20:08:50
242.   underdog
Man, it's a little odd hearing Bill Walton calling games with his son playing. He's trying to sound non-partisan but... then he sounds like he's trying too hard. It just sounds... odd.
2006-04-28 20:09:09
243.   Jon Weisman
Still catching up.

89 No, I'm right.

2006-04-28 20:09:45
244.   underdog
Speaking of announcers, going from Vin Scully to, this inning, Charlie and Rick is just... depressing.
2006-04-28 20:09:55
245.   Jon Weisman
So, Geoff Blum?
2006-04-28 20:10:45
246.   D4P
So, Jeff Hamilton?
2006-04-28 20:11:43
247.   Bob Timmermann

Marques Johnson wasn't too bad doing UCLA games when his son was there. He would criticize his son (Kris that is). Even when he was working for UCLA.

I think Marques Johnson has one advantage over Bill Walton in that he is not insane.

2006-04-28 20:12:40
248.   underdog
Seo, Jeff Leonard? {shudder}
2006-04-28 20:13:21
249.   underdog
247 That is definitely an advantage (in today's wintry economic climate - movie reference)

Walton is a nut isn't he?

2006-04-28 20:14:49
250.   Bob Timmermann
Does it sound like there is a fair number of Dodger fans down in San Diego?
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2006-04-28 20:16:58
251.   Bob Timmermann
Presently, 2 of the 3 divisions in the NL are led by Cincinnati and Colorado.
2006-04-28 20:20:09
252.   Bob Timmermann
Wow, a run!
2006-04-28 20:20:40
253.   Curtis Lowe
2006-04-28 20:21:29
254.   D4P
Alomar is evidently lighting a fire under Navarro.


2006-04-28 20:22:38
255.   Bob Timmermann
Giants up on the DBacks 4-2 on a 3-run double by Bonds and an RBI single from Alou. (Aka the entire Giants offense).
2006-04-28 20:22:47
256.   Curtis Lowe
254- Isn't calling someone a Lorie a insult in England?
2006-04-28 20:22:51
257.   oldbear
Thats why bunting is dumb.
2006-04-28 20:24:13
258.   Bob Timmermann
The Angels have 3 runs on one hit tonight.
2006-04-28 20:24:25
259.   underdog
Yay, Dioner!

Boo, Jae.

Jeff Weaver's line tonight:
2.1 8 8 8 2 4 1 7.48

2006-04-28 20:25:14
260.   King of the Hobos
Billingsley, through 5, um, has . . . struck out 4? I guess I'm not allowed to say anything else
2006-04-28 20:26:09
261.   Curtis Lowe
260- What else? Is it bad?
2006-04-28 20:27:06
262.   oldbear
Roberts is easy to like when he's on the other team.
2006-04-28 20:27:34
263.   oldbear
5 pitch inning for Seo.
2006-04-28 20:28:03
264.   Eric Enders
I take that to mean he is "pitching very well."
2006-04-28 20:30:36
265.   Uncle Miltie
Furcal is hitting like Mario Mendoza.
2006-04-28 20:31:20
266.   King of the Hobos

Also, Guzman has both walked and homered

2006-04-28 20:31:37
267.   Jon Weisman
This thing with Furcal is ridiculous.
2006-04-28 20:32:04
268.   Curtis Lowe
266-Thank you.
2006-04-28 20:33:03
269.   D4P
Furcal is making a similar "first impression" on Dodger fans as that made by DJ Drew.
2006-04-28 20:33:24
270.   oldbear
Either Furcal is hurt or just isnt very good. I figured even if he falls into the "isnt very good", that would still be a big improvement over Izturis.

Not so far.

2006-04-28 20:37:55
271.   Jon Weisman
Is there any doubt that he's hurting? I sure hope Kevin Kennedy is proud of him.
2006-04-28 20:40:04
272.   D4P
One of the announcers (can't remember if it was Vin or Steinday) said that Furcal was clearly grimmacing over his finger. Evidently he can't hold onto the bat very well.
2006-04-28 20:40:16
273.   King of the Hobos
Billinsley makes it through the 6th, but has made 81 pitches.
2006-04-28 20:40:34
274.   Bob Timmermann
Cameron is hitting a "buck and a quarter".

That was the same price that Daffy Duck paid for his quarterstaff.

2006-04-28 20:40:44
275.   Uncle Miltie
271- I didn't want him playing today. They should give him a week off and start Robles.
2006-04-28 20:41:25
276.   oldbear
10 in a row for Seo.
2006-04-28 20:41:26
277.   regfairfield
274 Sounds like he overpaid.
2006-04-28 20:41:54
278.   underdog
274 Dodge, parry, thrust...

Rick Monday was just fetishizing the Nimitz aircraft carrier. "You see one of those and you just think, thank God they're on our side."

Sigh... back to the lakers game.

2006-04-28 20:42:30
279.   D4P
Has the "DFA Cody Ross so as to make room on the roster for Robles" ploy paid off yet?
2006-04-28 20:42:52
280.   underdog
270 Furcal is good. He's obviously hurting still. I think tonight proves Jon's thesis about this... why not just rest him until he can contribute like he's capable of?
2006-04-28 20:43:39
281.   D4P
Not only are they on our side, but they're defending the flag. Gotta defend that flag.
2006-04-28 20:45:08
282.   oldbear
I agree with Rick Monday.
2006-04-28 20:45:26
283.   Bob Timmermann

Personally, I'd be very worried if the Nimitz were docked in San Diego and wasn't part of the U.S Navy.

That would really be bad. With the strafing and the saturation bombing and the widescale devastation.

2006-04-28 20:47:04
284.   underdog
It's not even a matter of agreement, it's how turned on he sounded when he said it...
2006-04-28 20:47:52
285.   brandesh

awesome Kim Ng article

2006-04-28 20:49:27
286.   oldbear
Very true. If the Nimitz was overtaken by pirates, shudder to think.....
2006-04-28 20:51:11
287.   Inside Baseball
231, 233 Me three!

Re gas prices: Here's a link to find the lowest gas prices in your neighborhood (updtaed nightly). Please excuse this if someone has already posted it.

2006-04-28 20:52:15
288.   Telemachos
272 It was very clear on the TV replay how Furcal was wincing when he was pulling off his batting glove. This is what Vin was commenting on.

285 Funny, I just finished reading that when I hit "refresh" and saw your post.

2006-04-28 20:53:10
289.   Jon Weisman
Billingsley had to do some time on the bases.
2006-04-28 20:53:28
290.   Telemachos
Man, Cruz is really struggling right now. He seems to be dropping his hands and swinging under each pitch as he upper-cuts.
2006-04-28 20:53:46
291.   Jon Weisman
286 - Would Jack Wilson board it first, and would it be wise?
2006-04-28 20:54:01
292.   Curtis Lowe
RICKY ledee
2006-04-28 20:54:03
293.   oldbear
Navarro with 2-2 with an IBB tonite.
2006-04-28 20:55:50
294.   Bob Timmermann
Tonight we did get to hear the Pirates TV announcer say "Hoist the Jolly Roger!"

That statement actually makes "Light Up the Halo!" sound not lame.

2006-04-28 20:56:10
295.   Curtis Lowe
293- He must have remembered that he can contribute.
2006-04-28 20:57:24
296.   D4P
Is getting a righty-lefty matchup in your favor really worth wasting a player?
2006-04-28 20:57:57
297.   Bob Timmermann
Olmedo Saenz could wake up on Christmas morning and fry up some bacon.
2006-04-28 20:58:30
298.   Curtis Lowe
ugly ugly ugly.
2006-04-28 20:58:34
299.   Jon Weisman
You rarely see a first baseman record a putout with the ball in his bare hand. Oh well.
2006-04-28 20:58:44
300.   King of the Hobos
Controversial strike call, and the SkySox are going crazy. Jayson Nix and the manager have been ejected, Billingsley hasn't thrown a pitch in a few minutes
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2006-04-28 20:59:16
301.   D4P
So can my grandmother.
2006-04-28 20:59:30
302.   oldbear
I was gonna say Little out managed Bochy in that situation. Saenz vs a LH is a better matchup than Navarro vs Young. But Bochy gets away with it.
2006-04-28 21:00:29
303.   King of the Hobos
Billingsley done with 7 innings, 93 pitches. He made 96 pitches in his last start on April 22nd
2006-04-28 21:00:42
304.   Eric Enders
Gameday showed Billingsley's last pitch to Nix well within the strike zone.

7 innings done and all's well.

2006-04-28 21:01:22
305.   Marty
Ham You Lack
Ham You Lack
Ham You Lack
2006-04-28 21:01:55
306.   Steve
Nice to see Seo pitch well, even if it was just against Pittsburgh West.
2006-04-28 21:02:29
307.   regfairfield
302 At the cost of losing our only left handed bat on the bench.
2006-04-28 21:02:29
308.   Eric Enders
So, out of curiosity, which game is everybody listening to?
2006-04-28 21:03:03
309.   Andrew Shimmin
Can Gameday recorders show a strike outside of the zone (or a ball inside it)? I can't remember ever seeing one. Could be that they don't want to show up the umps, or just that the software won't allow it.
2006-04-28 21:03:10
310.   oldbear
13 straight.
2006-04-28 21:03:20
311.   Eric Enders
I think we will see Broxton in this game eventually, alas.

This could be a repeat of the opening game of last year's Southern League playoffs.

2006-04-28 21:03:21
312.   Bob Timmermann

I'm just a big league guy.

2006-04-28 21:04:09
313.   sanchez101
How acurate do you thing gameday is when it comes to placing the pitches on their strikezone? I remember listening to the radio for a couple 51's game so far and it doesnt seem to coincide with what the announcers say.
2006-04-28 21:04:30
314.   Uncle Miltie
Nate is going to be upset about missing this game. Billingsley with a, well, until I see another pitcher I won't say anything and Guzman with a walk.
2006-04-28 21:05:04
315.   D4P
I've always wondered that too. I've never seen a ball outside the strike zone called a strike, or a ball inside the strike zone called a ball. There's obviously some kind of "fix" going on there.
2006-04-28 21:05:29
316.   Eric Enders
On my feed it's still 1-1 to Guzman.

Buffering differences?

2006-04-28 21:05:32
317.   oldbear
307. I'd argue that a hit in that situation would win the game essentially. I'll take Saenz vs LHP with the bases loaded every chance I could get. Thats the optimum chance to generate a run.

Saving Ledee for a situation that might never come I wouldnt recommend.

2006-04-28 21:05:38
318.   King of the Hobos
309 Swinging strikes can appear anywhere, but I don't think called strikes ever appear outside of the zone.
2006-04-28 21:06:50
319.   D4P
Seo walked 4 in 6 innings. Pittsburgh West is dead last (or close to last) in the majors in just about every meaningful offensive category.
2006-04-28 21:07:21
320.   Eric Enders
Loney RBI single scores Ethier. 5-0 Vegas.
2006-04-28 21:07:27
321.   Curtis Lowe
317- Good point.
2006-04-28 21:07:49
322.   Steve
309 -- I've seen them touch the outside of the box.

If I can name three positive-looking trends re Grittle, they would be the tendency to manage in the present rather than engage in hypothetical "what if lightning struck our backup catcher in the seventeenth inning" managing, the tendency to pinch-hit for pitchers in optimal situations, and the tendency not to waste pitchers in one and two at-bat situations.

2006-04-28 21:08:50
323.   underdog
And after all our Furcal brow-furrowing, he singles. I guess he's not completely bat-challenged, at least...
2006-04-28 21:08:54
324.   Eric Enders
The current batting averages of the 1-6 hitters in the Vegas batting order are .319, .378, .373, .337, .438, .300.
2006-04-28 21:08:58
325.   Curtis Lowe
2006-04-28 21:09:00
326.   Steve
319 -- I just meant it was better than seeing him leave the game having given up a dozen runs to Pittsburgh East, as he already has.
2006-04-28 21:09:44
327.   Bob Timmermann
I assume Little wants to use the tried and true method of Seo plus Hamulack plus Saito plus Baez.
2006-04-28 21:10:13
328.   Curtis Lowe
When speed works out it is very exciting.
2006-04-28 21:10:34
329.   oldbear
That hit by Drew should end the game.
2006-04-28 21:10:48
330.   underdog
308 I'm listening to the Dodgers game (Drew just drove in two runs, it's 3-0), watching the Lakers game, and doing research for my screenplay.

I'm also cleaning the house, composing an opera and inventing a time machine.

2006-04-28 21:11:06
331.   D4P
8 hits tonight (7 singles)
2006-04-28 21:12:01
332.   Steve
And now you don't need Ledee, and if you do, then you screwed up to the point that it doesn't matter whether you needed Ledee
2006-04-28 21:12:09
333.   oldbear
I want to know how Furcal got to 3rd on a ground ball to left field? What was Roberts doing?
2006-04-28 21:12:53
334.   D4P
I think Furcal was running on the play.
2006-04-28 21:12:58
335.   Steve
By the way, why was Alan Embree still pitching? I mean, yes, you should use pitchers for more than one batter -- but that applies to pitchers, not Alan Embree.
2006-04-28 21:13:11
336.   underdog
Sean Cassidy's now pitching. This should be no problem.

Wow, look at those 51s batting averages... impressive, even for the PCL.

2006-04-28 21:13:41
337.   Bob Timmermann

So what sort of opera? Bel canto? German epic? Comic? Modern?

2006-04-28 21:14:09
338.   underdog
335 Question could be rephrased as "Why is Alan Embree still pitching?" (in general)
2006-04-28 21:14:36
339.   Jon Weisman
330 - I'm writing 300 words about Ashton Kutcher. Coming pithily to a Variety near you.
2006-04-28 21:15:56
340.   underdog
337 More of the Carl Stalling variety.
2006-04-28 21:16:49
341.   Steve
340 -- Will it have a spear and magic helmet?
2006-04-28 21:17:25
342.   Eric Enders
Billingsley now batting, which means he will pitch the 8th...
2006-04-28 21:19:18
343.   Bob Timmermann
When I went to see "Der fliegende Holländer", I kept thinking to myself, "This sounds like a Warner Brothers cartoon?"
2006-04-28 21:21:26
344.   King of the Hobos
Ethier shifts to right, and Duncan goes to center to give Billingsley some better defense. Kelly Wusch is currently in the booth with Russ Langer, and hasn't been that bad, although I haven't heard much
2006-04-28 21:21:55
345.   Steve
Now, has someone already mentioned how much we miss Jeff Weaver tonight? It's basically obligatory at this point -- forgive me if someone already did the honors.
2006-04-28 21:22:38
346.   Eric Enders
Bob is quite the superfluous question mark offender today.
2006-04-28 21:23:22
347.   Eric Enders
Billingsley uses up 6 pitches getting the first out in the 8th.
2006-04-28 21:24:09
348.   Andrew Shimmin
Nuts. No no-no.
2006-04-28 21:24:16
349.   Eric Enders
Hit for Carlos Rivera on a sinking liner to the outfield. Diving attempt by Duncan unsuccessful.
2006-04-28 21:25:52
350.   Jon Weisman
345 - See 237 and the ensuing excitement.
Show/Hide Comments 351-400
2006-04-28 21:27:33
351.   Eric Enders
Final line for Billingsley: 8 IP, O R, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K
2006-04-28 21:30:13
352.   King of the Hobos
Billingsley's ERA is now 1.59, pitching in the PCL. After a 8 inning 1 hitter in Nevada's answer to Coors Field, I'm not sure what else Billingsley has to prove. Tomko and Seo really need to stay sharp
2006-04-28 21:30:58
353.   D4P
2006-04-28 21:32:25
354.   Eric Enders
Depending on when we call him up during the season, we'd get to keep him for an extra year before he becomes a free agent. I've gotta think that's a major consideration.
2006-04-28 21:32:40
355.   Curtis Lowe
I don't knwo if this has been discussed or not but does anyone else think a big test of vegas for young prospects is Vegas itself? With the women and the parties and the etc...
2006-04-28 21:32:52
356.   Bob Timmermann
My subconscious keeps making me type question marks.

I wonder what a Freudian would say about that?

2006-04-28 21:34:23
357.   Jon Weisman
354 - Isn't any partial season, no matter how large, enough to postpone completion of his sixth season for another calendar year?
2006-04-28 21:35:39
358.   Jon Weisman
Old friend Steve Colyer is in the game for Colorado Springs. Quick, now - who did the Dodgers trade him for?
2006-04-28 21:35:48
359.   Eric Enders
I always thought that too, but then I read something last year regarding Delmon Young that seemed to say otherwise. Honestly, I have no idea what the exact rule is.
2006-04-28 21:36:15
360.   Curtis Lowe
358- Red Ross II
2006-04-28 21:36:24
361.   Eric Enders
That was Schofield Jr. Jr., wasn't it?
2006-04-28 21:37:19
362.   Eric Enders
No, wait, that was Jason Frasor. Steve Colyer was a longer time ago.
2006-04-28 21:38:35
363.   King of the Hobos
Piazza needs to give up catching if Navarro can steal off him
2006-04-28 21:38:58
364.   Bob Timmermann
That little boy traded for Steve Colyer grew up to be ....

Cody Ross.

And that's the rest of the story....

2006-04-28 21:39:11
366.   Uncle Miltie
Somebody needs to describe these stolen bases by Mueller and Navarro.
2006-04-28 21:39:26
367.   underdog
How ironic. Navarro just stole a base!
2006-04-28 21:40:07
368.   Eric Enders
"Somebody needs to describe these stolen bases by Mueller and Navarro."

'Cause Steinday sure ain't gonna do it.

2006-04-28 21:41:11
369.   Eric Enders
Broxton enters the game. Which, for Colorado Springs, means:

Pitch 1 - Called Strike
Pitch 2 - Called Strike
Pitch 3 - Foul
Pitch 4 - Called Strike
Tony Miller called out on strikes.

2006-04-28 21:41:27
370.   underdog
365 Really? Right now the Padres look like the weakest team in the division, and not just in the standings.

Btw, did anyone comment on the notes about how minor leaguers are doing - including Sele (the "clock is ticking")...

2006-04-28 21:41:41
371.   D4P
Like I surmised the other day: 1st and 2nd bases are closer together this year than normal. It's part of MLB's secret ploy to keep scoring up during this steroid-crackdown era.
2006-04-28 21:43:01
372.   D4P
Save us, Danny!
2006-04-28 21:43:09
373.   Curtis Lowe
!!!Dodgers Win!!!
2006-04-28 21:43:46
374.   Eric Enders
With Seo, Billingsley, and Leach, I'm going to venture a guess that tonight has been the Dodger organization's best pitching night of the year.

Orenduff and Miller also combined for 9IP/2ER in the Jacksonville loss.

2006-04-28 21:43:49
375.   Bob Timmermann
4 pitch save for Baez.
2006-04-28 21:43:59
377.   underdog
Nice to hear/see both the Dodgers' bullpen and the 51s' bullpen close out their games in perfect fashion. Sweet.
2006-04-28 21:45:11
378.   underdog
370 Maybe if Peavy can hit as well as he can pitch, and pitch 4 of their 5 starts?
2006-04-28 21:45:42
379.   regfairfield
370 I'm going to guess that that wasn't a genuine comment.
2006-04-28 21:45:44
380.   Bob Timmermann
That 9th inning by the Padres had to be one of the quickest and most innocuous half innings I've ever seen.
2006-04-28 21:46:14
381.   Eric Enders
The PCL is now batting .150 against Broxton with 17 Ks in 40 AB.
2006-04-28 21:46:25
382.   underdog
374 Nice to hear - how many innings did Miller give them?

Okay, off to watch the end of the Lakers game and then work some more. Night all!

2006-04-28 21:47:09
383.   underdog
379 Ahh... I shouldn't have taken "truth" so literally then?
2006-04-28 21:48:22
384.   Eric Enders
Miller: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K

For the season: 6 G, 12 IP, 2 H (!), 12 K, 0.00 ERA

2006-04-28 21:49:55
385.   xaphor
254 "Isn't calling someone a Lorie a insult in England?"

Not that I have ever heard, but we go through jargon at a rap culture like rate. A lorry however, is a truck.

2006-04-28 21:51:48
387.   xaphor
England is at over 90 pence a litre which works out to over 6 dollars a gallon. Thank you Thatcher for destroying public transportation.

1 gallon = 3.79 litres
1 dollar = .559 pounds

2006-04-28 21:54:28
388.   MartinBillingsley31
BOOYAAH, billingsley tearin it up in las vegas.
Watch out seo or tomko.
BOOYAAH, broxton tearin it up in las vegas.
Watch out carter.
BOOYAAH, guzman comin back after an awefull start.
Watch out lofton.
Sorry, i'm excited.
2006-04-28 21:54:56
389.   sanchez101
beat me to it hobo!
2006-04-28 21:55:49
390.   Jon Weisman
New post up top.
2006-04-28 21:56:12
391.   Gen3Blue

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.