Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
In posts here and here, Dodger Math has started analyzing the Dodger offense using a Hardball Times statistic called Value Added Batting Runs. Some of the individual rankings might surprise you; the overall picture might depress you.
Stepping back, although the Dodger offense has had trouble tallying (meaningful) runs since it left Pittsburgh two weeks ago, it is still outscoring the opposition overall this season, 110-100. Despite lousy starts in two of the team's last five games from Jae Seo and Odalis Perez, the team ERA over the past week is 3.75.
Seo starts tonight for the fourth time this year. I'm gonna voice my hunch that he does well against the San Diego Padres, who lack a single regular with an OPS over .800 and are last in the National League in runs per game, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
By the way, I do want to pass along my belated congratulations to Mike Piazza for his 400th home run. He may be staring at the final months of his career, but what a special ballplayer he has been. The greatest-hitting catcher of all time, he had 10 consecutive .900+ OPS seasons and 12 consecutive over .800. And with all his power, he never struck out more than 93 times in a season.
* * *
just a thought, but now I need to actually go and read up on the value added batting run stat to begin with...
just a thought, but now I need to actually go and read up on the value added batting run stat to begin with...
.558: 2005 Los Angeles Dodgers (71-91; 4th in National League West)
Injuries unraveled this lineup from nearly top to bottom with only Jeff Kent staying healthy or competent long enough to get the minimum 502 plate appearances in. Eighteen players had at least 100 plate appearances as the Dodgers scrambled to patch a broken outfield. At least they have that rock of lineup stability now, Nomar Garciaparra.
http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/sportsnation/ratings?lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos2
As far as Value Added Batting Runs - this stat looks from a cursory glance to be very similar, at least in spirit, to the wOBA stat used by Tango et al in The Book except that it's not converted to a rate stat. I can't vouch directly for the values of each outcome in VABR, but they look qualitatively the same as those used in wOBA and were probably calculated the same way. This looks to be a great stat that effectively captures the offensive value of a player independent of the team they play on. Neat-o. Now if Kent and Furcal could pull their numbers up...
Which is worse: a manager who has no clue about in game strategy, and gives away outs like they were candy, or a manager that stunts the teams growth by not playing young players, and burns out his starting pitchers?
Sounds like Dusty.
"The oldest active Dodger."
"The fattest lazy cat."
"The tastiest apple pie."
"Greatest-hitting" in its entirety is a modifier of "catcher." If you leave out the hyphen, "greatest" only modifies "catcher."
Its called Expected Value of a PA(plate appearance), or E(PA).
It measures a players offensive capabilities and the expected outcome of each plate appearance. For example, if a player's E(PA) was 2, then expected outcome of all his PAs would be 2 bases.
The formula is:
Probability of getting on base X Mean Value of bases
mean value of bases=
total amount of bases divided by # of times on base
single, hbp and bbs all count as one base.
From fooling around with it and finding about 20 or so player's E(PA) from last yr, it seems that anything above .60 is in the very good catagorey. Anything above .65 is elite.
some players E(PA)
Jeff kent: 0.5702
Albert Pujols: 0.6657
Ichiro: 0.4721
Furcal: 0.4781
Derrek Lee: 0.69860
Juan Encarnacion: 0.49397
This stat doesnt really measure speed, so stolen bases arent taken into account. It is not park adjusted so the numbers are not optimized across the board. And it would be better put in context to find the league average E(PA) for every position to see how each player stacks up.
For example, Encarnacions E(PA) is higher then furcals but furcal is still the more available offensive player because his E(PA) is probably on the high end when it comes ot shortstops and Encarnacion's is on the low end when it comes to corner outfielders.
I would prefer to discuss this list of topics;
1) Grady Little
2. Middle-relief
3 Jeff Kent
d: Becker
Jon, is the title of this post related to this week's discussion of the boardmember's, uh, respective hitting ability?
1) Sticking with Navarro and giving him a vote of confidence instead of playing Alomar more;
2) Putting Cruz in the 2-hole when other managers would have put a slap hitter there. (And I, for one, am happy to have Lofton there also if he keeps getting on base for the sluggers.)
But as I voted my approval, I wished I had a "jury's still out" option. Because I may only be reacting to my feeling that he's an improvement on the stiff we had last year.
For example, if a player's E(PA) was 2, then expected outcome of all his PAs would be 2 bases.
That seems very similar to SLG, except that it includes HBPs and BBs. If a player's SLG is 2, then the expected outcome of all of his ABs would be a double. (right?)
Is anyone else concerned about Martin coming up next year and being as bad as Navaro is this year thereby giving the Dodgers 3.5 straight years of horrible catchers?
Drew E(PA)= .6397
Repko E(PA)= .6511
30 - I abstained.
33 - That doesn't account for how often they've played though, right? It's a rate stat? I assume Cody Ross tops them both.
no it doesnt put into account how often they played but drew with 72ABs is pretty close to repko with 57ABs.
If i have the time (which i dont this weekend), i want to find the average E(PA) for all positions to use as a point of reference.
Nate - I think you should blaze a trail and be the first to give players credit for reaching via error, and not give them credit for getting HBB. Makes more sense to me that way.
Retrosheet keeps track of "ROE" (reaching on error), but that won't help you until the season is over.
In the 19th century, reaching on an error was often part of the boxscore. But there were a lot of errors.
And I'm guessing that I've seen many more 19th century boxscores than the rest of the gang here.
i compared bonds 2001 yr to his 2004 year. 2001 was when he hit 73 homers but 2004 he out OPSed his 2001 yr by 43 points.
E(PA) 2001- .8999
E(Pa) 2004- .8811
so even though he had a better OPS his 2004 year, his 2001 yr was the best year comes out to be better.
And while we're at it, can we please abolish the scoring distinction between wild pitches and passed balls? Just lump 'em together into one category. Often the scorer appears to just be doing "eenie-meenie miney moe" anyway when making the call. Not to mention all the cross-ups and the problems inherent in trying to decipher whose fault they were.
http://www.hyfntrak.com/neilyoung2/AFF23130/
I give the hitter more credit for the combo of
(1) putting the ball in play and
(2) potentially causing the fielder to rush (though, of course, not all errors are the result of rushing)
than
(1) standing there and getting plunked, rather than successfully getting out of the way as you are theoretically supposed to try to do if you can.
I don't like the double error on one play.
Ground ball to the third baseman. He can't come up with it cleanly (error #1) and then he throws it away and the batter goes to second (error #2).
But consider this scenario, batter hits a grounder to third. Third baseman airmails throw in to the stands. Batter ends up at second. But that's just one error. The end result is the same.
To be it's more important that the play be described by the magnitude of the screw up in total. Not by picking apart the play. If the fielder boots a ball and compounds it by throwing it away, isn't almost always a case that the player rushed his throw because of the initial boot.
Or consider an outfielder who drops a fly ball and the batter makes it to third. That's three bases. But just one error.
Whenever I bring this up, I'm told to shut up and sit down.
So I will.
FYI
http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/error_art.htm
Next time you raise the issue, try it while sitting down. At least that way your audience can only tell you to shut up.
That was used as an insult on an episode of "The Bob Newhart Show" and I've never understoof what it meant.
Giants deal reliever Walker to Tampa Bay
April 28, 2006
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- The San Francisco Giants traded right-handed reliever Tyler Walker to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Friday for righty pitcher Carlos Hines.
48 - I don't have many problems with the way wild pitches or passed balls are scored. I don't mind the distinction, and I don't disagree with the decision most of the time.
51 - I guess I just see errors as counting mistakes, not a measurement of how bad the mistakes are. I definitely wouldn't mind another stat that did that, though. But I don't see a reason to redefine what an error is.
And of course, measuring defense by errors without accounting for plays made is flawed.
That was on the Griddle three mintues before your post went through.
Although knowing the way posts get time-stamped, we were liking typing it at the same time.
I took the advice and sat down before reading that.
vr, Xei
I like that idea. Maybe FSN Prime can make that a column on the linescore!
But not at the expense of the Fielder's Choice column!
Bob, I bow down to your greatness. I'm beginning to think Bob Timmerman is actually the name of a group of 38 different mensa members who have joined forces to bring greater knowledge to baseball fans and ultimately, change the way the game is scored.
Then would you agree with the conclusion -- which you could reach from passed ball totals -- that most of the worst defensive catchers of all time happened to catch, say, Phil Niekro?
Really my main problem -- and I say this as someone who's been an official scorer -- is that official scorers shouldn't be given discretionary opportunity to judge a player's intent.
This comes into play with the cross-ups, and on a few other occasions --
- Is it a sac bunt, or was he bunting for a hit?
- Was it a steal, or defensive indifference?
Basically, I think that for consistency's sake, we shouldn't ask scorers to make those kinds of calls. They should be able to judge physical actions and mistakes, but they shouldn't be asked to read the players' minds.
The big distinction should not be between one-base and two-base errors, but between those errors that allow a batter to reach base and those that don't.
An outfielder's bobble on a single-and-error play is relatively harmless compared to dropping a routine fly ball, since the former didn't allow the runner to reach base.
"Grampa, that flag only has 49 stars."
"I'll be dead in my grave before I recognize Missouri."
This is very similar to Boswell's Total Average stat. Total Average is a pretty good stat, but not quite as good as Runs Created or Linear Weights. I think the error occurs because it treats as a BB and 1B as equal, when they are not (1B advance more runners than BB), and it treats a 2B as twice as good as 1B, when they aren't.
Remember, OPS is only a rate stat, and does not take playing time into account. That's why Bonds' 2001 and 2004 look different. But OPS is very easy to calculate, and that's why it is more popular than RC, LW, or Total Average, even though they all correlate slightly better with Runs Scored.
Today's Dodger/Padre game simulation is coming up soon.
vr, Xei
And if they're all that smart, how come none of them know Spanish (at least judging by the name they gave their organization)?
i am going to go way off topic, but i feel the need to share a mensa story. there is a "welcome dinner" here in mn held monthly to welcome new members. the one i went to had every mensan stereotype you can imagine in attendance. from the host reciting hypoglycemic indices of the various pastas being served to the hostess speaking to her diapered 2 year old in latin to the guy sitting at the table in silence rocking back and forth, it was quite an event to behold. my conversation starter, which was rather useless, was "how 'bout them twins?"
And "earned runs" in the boxscores from then meant something completely different from what it means today I believe.
(notice the three question marks, hint hint hint...)
TIMMERMANN
Bibliophiles Observing Baseball:
Thirty-eight Interested Mensa Members Eagerly Recording Minutiae About Nation's National (pastime)
The end result of this was that my high school got a few extra bucks from the state of California for me sitting around and playing Strat-0-matic baseball when I was bored in class.
Do they still consider you a "minor"?
http://tinyurl.com/5arlw
Time: 3:51
Attendance: 00,001
vr, Xei
Can one really anticipate how many IBB a player will have the following year? Or CS'ing, or triples, or hits for that matter? It would seem most of those things fluctuate.
I'd still look at OPS + park factors + experience curves in place of the VABR when making predictions for the future.IT seems VABR encorporates things that are highly volatile from year to year.
It was really weird to drive by there and see the building gone.
So without a permanent record, do I have to go back to high school and get a diploma again? And if so, do I have to apply to college again later? Or can I just use the applications I had for UCLA and Stanford? Stanford put me on their waiting list back in 1983. Am I still on it?
NEW YORK (AP) Steve Howe, the relief pitcher whose promising career was derailed by drug and alcohol abuse, died Friday when his pickup truck rolled over in Coachella, Calif. He was 48.
And yet, Repko is riding the pine in favor of Cruz, despite leading the team in stolen bases, and being second on the team in home runs.
I know Vin would occasionally break out tales of woe in relating bad trades that were attempts to fill Howe's spot in the bullpen.
Say hello to:
Carlos Diaz
Ed Vande Berg
Matt Young
Brad Havens
The bigger problem actually was that the Dodgers had a lefty reliever in their system named John Franco, but they traded him to Cincinnati in 1983 for utility infielder Rafael Landestoy.
Not quite Delino for Pedro, but I'm pretty sure that Franco finished ahead of Landestoy in Win Shares by an enormous margin.
:)
vr, Xei
you're probably right. lol.
Why is Furcal going to play tonight? With Seo going against Young, I'm expecting another loss, though Petco should help Seo keep the ball in the park.
Lakers play tonight....Go Suns!
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-obit-howe&prov=ap&type=lgns
email me at gododgers35@hotmail.com if interested.
Neifi!
LOL, I ran the numbers for guzman and then right afterward, kendall. I guess we all think alike.
To be accurate, someone else pointed it out to me.
jason kendal- .389
corey patterson- .380
tony womack- .305
womack was the worst!
I could have loaded up on Dodgers on my picks, but the guys with the bad offensive totals are famous enough (Garciaparra, Furcal, and Kent) that they would still be getting votes from people who just pick names they recognize.
Hey, that sounds like Ned Colletti!
How should i weight stolen bases and caught stealings?
You had to be bad and unknown. Like the Pirates.
Not bad and well-known. Like most of the Dodgers infield.
5IP 2H 0ER 0BB 14K
wow.
thats what i need to know too. How much should i penalize each CS?
texans and mario williams agree to terms on a contract!
doesnt mean the texans will not take bush anymore, just means they have a fallback option now.
------
It would have been nice to hear that in, oh, 1994.
If the Texans want to draft Reggie Bush, they would have to trade with somebody.
I hope Reggie enjoys New Orleans.
The Saints have to be feeling pretty happy right about now, though. Can you imagine the crazy offers that'll pile up? And the worst case scenario is they get Bush to help Drew Brees.
Leach won the Pioneer League ERA title last year with Ogden, but he was very old for rookie ball and thus isn't considered much of a prospect. (According to BA, he's not one of the top 30 prospects in the Dodger system.)
Why is Pedroza still down there? Isnt he way way too old to still be playing in a low A league?
http://www.sju.edu/~sforman/research/talks/baseball/node12.html
Delta State is in the same conference as North Alabama, where my brother played. Leach was out with Tommy John surgery that year, though, so they never got to face each other.
http://firejoemorgan.blogspot.com/
womacks oringal E(PA)= .305
womacks E(PA) w/ SB weight= .320
marginal increase but still the worse offensive player in baseball.
If nothing else, there will always be the picture of him celebrating the last out of the '81 Series.
yea significantly worse. Reyes comes out to .421, which isnt bad for a SS.
EY Jr. did, however, reach base on one of them, thereby enabling Leach to K four batters in the first inning.
I'm working on a piece about it for the Griddle.
November 19, 1993: Delino DeShields traded by the Montreal Expos to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Pedro Martinez.
And unless I'm completely remembering things wrong, the Rockies took Jody Reed from Boston and flipped him to LA in that same expansion draft.
And then spiked him badly in one of the first games ever played between the two teams, IIRC. (I always hated Galarraga after that.)
Me too. I also hated him for charging Darren Dreifort.
Later I hated him for being a lousy stinking Giant.
I remember that game. Bobby Cox was really angry at Dreifort in that game. He contemplated at one point moving his starter in to the outfield and bringing in his worst reliever to bean Dreifort and have that guy ejected and then go back to his starter.
Fortunately for Cox, one of his coaches talked him out of this plan as I'm sure he would have been suspended for a very long time if he had tried that.
So what were the odds on "won't try to steal"? What was the payoff? 40 to 1?
My TV seems to be working fine? ;-)
I will now take this moment to assert my moral superiority over many of you by saying I own a Prius.
You don't buy a Prius for the gas savings. You buy a Prius in order to belittle others and annoy people by driving in the carpool lane and make the flow there worse.
I cant remember why EY never got a chance in LA. Its not like that team had great 2nd basemen back in the early 90's.
Re: the Texans not taking Bush. WHAT KIND OF A WORLD DO WE LIVE IN?! Oh wait, I wonder if they know something about possible fall-out from the lease/ agent stuff, or do they just think their Defensive needs outweigh the best athlete down the pike since possibly Gale Sayers?
Oops.
It's a Dodger rule that if you are a good hitting second baseman in the minors, your defense is automatically assumed to suck, and you have no future at the position. See T. Denker and D. Young for latest examples.
Another reason why I hate defense. Typically if I dislike something long enough, I pretend it doesnt really exist. Does defense actually exist? I've cast it out of my galaxy.
When the Dodgers return home will they have a moment of silence for Steve Howe?
The Yankees did tonight.
I'm getting the Angels game on Prime Ticket. Grrr.
208 And yes, I think they will.
http://tinyurl.com/l325j
Buzz is that Vince Young will go to Tennessee even though Chow wants Leinart. Tomorrow will be verrrrrry interesting!
And in one of them Zack Day will be starting!
So Griffey could very well have his two biggest MLB records both broken tomorrow.
I also picked the Reds to finish last in the NL Central and they have the best record in the majors right now.
Off to cook.
You should have picked the bad teams to finish poorly and the good teams to finish well.
That's my secret.
Yikes.
Cody Ross was hit on the left hand by a pitch that he swung at as a pinch-hitter on Friday night. X-rays found no fracture. Ross, who was making his first appearance with the Reds, is day-to-day with a bruised hand.
So, Jeff Goldblum?
I like this.
89 No, I'm right.
Marques Johnson wasn't too bad doing UCLA games when his son was there. He would criticize his son (Kris that is). Even when he was working for UCLA.
I think Marques Johnson has one advantage over Bill Walton in that he is not insane.
Walton is a nut isn't he?
Alorie...?
Boo, Jae.
Jeff Weaver's line tonight:
IP H R ER BB K HR Season ERA
2.1 8 8 8 2 4 1 7.48
I take that to mean he is "pitching very well."
Also, Guzman has both walked and homered
Not so far.
That was the same price that Daffy Duck paid for his quarterstaff.
Rick Monday was just fetishizing the Nimitz aircraft carrier. "You see one of those and you just think, thank God they're on our side."
Sigh... back to the lakers game.
Has the "DFA Cody Ross so as to make room on the roster for Robles" ploy paid off yet?
Not only are they on our side, but they're defending the flag. Gotta defend that flag.
Personally, I'd be very worried if the Nimitz were docked in San Diego and wasn't part of the U.S Navy.
That would really be bad. With the strafing and the saturation bombing and the widescale devastation.
awesome Kim Ng article
Re gas prices: Here's a link to find the lowest gas prices in your neighborhood (updtaed nightly). Please excuse this if someone has already posted it.
http://autos.msn.com/everyday/gasstations.aspx?zip=&src=Netx
285 Funny, I just finished reading that when I hit "refresh" and saw your post.
That statement actually makes "Light Up the Halo!" sound not lame.
So can my grandmother.
7 innings done and all's well.
Ham You Lack
Ham You Lack
This could be a repeat of the opening game of last year's Southern League playoffs.
I'm just a big league guy.
I've always wondered that too. I've never seen a ball outside the strike zone called a strike, or a ball inside the strike zone called a ball. There's obviously some kind of "fix" going on there.
Buffering differences?
Saving Ledee for a situation that might never come I wouldnt recommend.
Seo walked 4 in 6 innings. Pittsburgh West is dead last (or close to last) in the majors in just about every meaningful offensive category.
If I can name three positive-looking trends re Grittle, they would be the tendency to manage in the present rather than engage in hypothetical "what if lightning struck our backup catcher in the seventeenth inning" managing, the tendency to pinch-hit for pitchers in optimal situations, and the tendency not to waste pitchers in one and two at-bat situations.
I'm also cleaning the house, composing an opera and inventing a time machine.
I think Furcal was running on the play.
Wow, look at those 51s batting averages... impressive, even for the PCL.
So what sort of opera? Bel canto? German epic? Comic? Modern?
stay...?
Depending on when we call him up during the season, we'd get to keep him for an extra year before he becomes a free agent. I've gotta think that's a major consideration.
I wonder what a Freudian would say about that?
I always thought that too, but then I read something last year regarding Delmon Young that seemed to say otherwise. Honestly, I have no idea what the exact rule is.
Cody Ross.
And that's the rest of the story....
'Cause Steinday sure ain't gonna do it.
Pitch 1 - Called Strike
Pitch 2 - Called Strike
Pitch 3 - Foul
Pitch 4 - Called Strike
Tony Miller called out on strikes.
Btw, did anyone comment on the DOdgers.com notes about how minor leaguers are doing - including Sele (the "clock is ticking")...
Like I surmised the other day: 1st and 2nd bases are closer together this year than normal. It's part of MLB's secret ploy to keep scoring up during this steroid-crackdown era.
Orenduff and Miller also combined for 9IP/2ER in the Jacksonville loss.
Okay, off to watch the end of the Lakers game and then work some more. Night all!
Miller: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K
For the season: 6 G, 12 IP, 2 H (!), 12 K, 0.00 ERA
Not that I have ever heard, but we go through jargon at a rap culture like rate. A lorry however, is a truck.
1 gallon = 3.79 litres
1 dollar = .559 pounds
Watch out seo or tomko.
BOOYAAH, broxton tearin it up in las vegas.
Watch out carter.
BOOYAAH, guzman comin back after an awefull start.
Watch out lofton.
Sorry, i'm excited.
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