To join Robert Kentrad ???

The Dodger pitching staff, especially the bullpen, does not seem capable of throwing a first-pitch strike in key situations. Walking a batter seems to always lead to no good for this pitching staff. When Saito gave up the walk, I immediately braced myself for the worst. And the worst happened with the K. Green HR shortly thereafter.

We may look back sadly some time in the future, and conclude that the Lance Carter debacle last Sunday was the beginning of the end for Dodgers 2006.

I've given up an average of 2.5 hours of sleep a night to get to the edge of this cliff. I'm quite tempted to become a mets fan.... nah.... can't do it.

Only a lazy, injury-prone player would allow his wrist to be broken/damaged by a wild pitch or foul ball.

4
I guess Alomar Jr. is not doing his job.

I just wonder who will be the first to get fired in 2006.

Maybe a graphics guy, maybe an assistant trainer, maybe an advanced scout, possibly a cotton candy vendor, Kim Ng sounds good because afterall it's still Paul's fault.

But someone has to go because Frankie is getting anxious.

So theoretically, our starting lineup on Sunday could be:

K Lofton CF
W Aybar 3B
J Drew RF
J Kent 2B
N Garciaparra 1B
A Ethier LF
R Martin C
R Furcal SS
C Billingsley P

7 Possibly. Reports have said that Sele would be most likely to get a callup for Sunday, though Bills would be fun.

I have a funny feeling that this is not rock bottom yet....

Billingsley won't get the call because it would be on three days rest.

Don't think you'll be seeing Furcal batting eighth yet ...

I did not like the Colletti hire and I was ambivalant about Grady Little. I had many reservations about the signings and tradings. But now that it's assembled, I think there is a lot of potential in this team, it COULD do very well. But what we see is a different part of the team malfunctioning every day. If it's not the starting pitchers, it's the relief pitchers. If they both do well, the offense doesn't score any runs. What we have here is a case of the O'Malley Curse. Walter's ghost will not rest until the O'Malley family once again owns the Dodgers. He is rightly upset about the poor excuse for baseball men who have owned the team since Peter sold. For shame, Peter, undo your mistake, for the sake of your dad and the millions of Dodger fans who are also suffering.

9. I too fear we have not hit rock bottom. Before we do, this team will show some life, resurrect our hopes and then fold up like a tent on the last day of a Boy Scout Jamboree.

I was originally thinking the Dodgers bad week was - and this is the narcissism of the superstitious sports fan talking - because my Lakers, and in a way my Broncos (good draft) had a good week, and thus the law of averages means one of your teams has to suck to balance it out. Logic, rationality be damned! Now the Lakers have lost. Does this mean the Dodgers will win? Or is it the O'Malley Curse, indeed?

Or is it...

Just that it's really early in the season and there are 130 or so games left to play and it's a little early to have jumped off a cliff.

I also think some good may ultimately have come out of this awful week - starting with the Lance Carter debacle. Hey, it got him sent down, they made changes, Ledee's injury meant Ethier's up, and I like him, and, although I feel bad for Navarro (whatever we think of him, he really has been playing better over the past week), seeing Martin come up for a bit wouldn't be so bad. Nor would having Sele or Bills replace Perez.

All this means is it takes some time for new players to adjust to each other, and to the coaches, and vice versa.

Btw, as an addendum to my above statement, as much as I like Aybar, I don't see Mueller's getting hurt as having much of a silver lining though.

Sigh... when's Gagne back?

13 - But it's May 5th. And we're 4 back of the powerhouse Rockies and DBacks.

Doomed, I tell ya, we're all DOOOMED!

2 walking the first batter is never a good thing, any batter for that matter

11 I am ok with Colletti, he didn't ruin our farm system and doesn't seem inclined to do so.....Little, we will go nowhere fast with him

what is wrong with us?

(1) middle relief is poor at best; (2) the starters are good, but not good enough; (3) Kent is on his way out and will need a lot of days off to make it to the end of the season; (4) Little doesn't have a clue how to handle pitchers, but (5) he is only slightly worse at this than maneuvering the everyday players and bench

Other than this, we are fine. We have a good closer even without Gagne (it's just that we have no need for one). And the new seat colors are nice.

In the sense that we haven't won a game this week, that we're in last place, that we have blown big leads, blown late leads and been blown out, I think this is probably close enough to rock bottom that any further descent is almost irrelevant. Sure, we can go deeper into last place ... but if we did, then we might start point toward 2007, which is what many people want to do to begin with.

Perez, Kent and Furcal are at rock bottom. The bullpen is at rock bottom. Mueller's last couple of weeks have been there. Navarro, who was emerging from rock bottom, may be back there with his injury. Lofton has stumbled. Left field is shaky. Sure, there's more that could happen, but this is plenty.

I don't think I've ever been calmer about the team being in last place, and I think that's because my emotional investment in this team is so different from last year's team. I'm not rooting against Colletti by any means. I'm glad Tomko did well last night (though again, against the Padres, I'm not surprised). I still get disappointed, but to some extent I've become comfortably numb.

but to some extent I've become comfortably numb

and that's a good thing?

All I can say is I'm kind of glad that I have been so ridiculously busy these last two weeks to stay up and follow the games. I'm sure that if I wasn't ambivalent to begin with about the team, I would have forced myself to stay up and would be completely crushed.
It will be exciting to see some of these kids get started in the show.

It will be exciting to see some of these kids get started in the show.

Provided, of course, they get started in a Dodger uniform.

18 - I'm not putting a value judgment on it.

I thought it was just a Pink Floyd reference.

The child is grown
The dream is gone
And I have become
Comfortably numb.

I don't remember the last time our team was in such a bad stretch. I don't remember the last time I felt so indifferent.

Maybe it's because the Clippers are in round 2, and that's enough for me, for now.

I took it more as a sad statement on the state of the team. For any fan to be numb to the fortunes of his team is in and of itself a problem.

"I don't remember the last time our team was in such a bad stretch. "

Who knew I had a commenter who is six months old? Very precocious.

[24] I don't remember the last time our team was in such a bad stretch

(most of last season)

For any fan to be numb to the fortunes of his team is in and of itself a problem.

To me, this is a probable byproduct of the Sabre philosophy. Enlightened fans are not supposed to care about the players themselves (e.g. their personalities, character, charisma, scrappinness, chemistry, etc.), but instead are supposed to care only about their production.

Emotional detachment is virtually inevitable.

Yeah, 26 and 27 took the words out of my mouth. I remember about, oh, 6 or 7 stretches like this last year at least. Honestly, I think this year will ultimately be "better" than last year, though perhaps we will all be numb, comfortably or un-, by the end and won't care. Still, I do enjoy seeing what the kids can do and wouldn't put it past a few of them to give the team a much needed spark.

Do you guys think Little is too laid back - that they need someone to flip a switch by flipping out once in awhile? (Or maybe he isn't and I just mis-read things...)

Last year's ridiculous rash of injuries was way more demoralizing than the current slump. The players will right themselves. Just stay healthy.

Would you describe Gagne's right elbow as comfortably numb?

28

I think emotional detachment kicks in when teams go through bad stretches and also have uninteresting players.

You could have asked me about UCLA basketball in the Steve Lavin era and I was emotionally detached. I became remarkably more emotionally attached this year.

I don't know what the "Sabre" philosophy is, but I do know that Buffalo's NHL team won its first playoff series this year.

32 - Bob, no love for the Baron Davis/Earl Watson/Dan Gadzuric era?

Does the Toby Bailey/JR Henderson/Kris Johnson group count as Harrick or Lavin-era players?

28 - I disagree.

There's no getting around it. When I think of UCLA basketball, I think of Gig Sims.

I think emotional detachment kicks in when teams go through bad stretches and also have uninteresting players.

So, should GMs/recruiters/etc. make an effort to acquire "interesting" players for the fans' benefit?

Glass half full talking points:

- Offense is 8th in NL in Runs/game (above StL and Atlanta) with bubkis from Kent/Furcal.

- Team ERA is 6th in NL.

- Starter ERA is 3rd in NL with 4 starters meeting/exceeding expectations. Seo has 3 QS in 5 tries so he gets a pass from me.

- Bullpen ERA 4.74 ranks 14th in NL but minus Carter/Kuo/Yhency is 4.00- league avg. That should improve with Broxton in the mix. Osoria has a .390 BIPA and an adjusted ERA of 4.20 vs 6.91 actual.

- In the offseason I posted here that Tomko was a Morris clone at half the price:
Tomko 3.41 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.1 K/9
Morris 5.18 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.8 K/9

Tomko hasn't allowed a HR in 25 innings.

- Pythag Record is 14-14. The bullpen and Lady Luck are the reasons for the 2-9 in 1-run games.

37
Tomko has faced generally faced the worst offenses in the league thus far. For that matter, so have the Dodgers.

37 - All excellent points. To further your observations, who on the team is playing over the heads right now? Maybe Tomko or Repko?

Lots of room to improve, few areas appear due for a regression.

38 I looked at that- I think he passes that smell test. 6ip, 3er at Philly is nice (save the Sal Fasano dong). 6ip, 1er vs Arizona - T-2nd in the NL in runs/gm and 5th in OPS. At worst he's met expectations.

Hard to believe that the Dodgers are facing four games against Milwaukee, a team that is playing substantially better than Dodgers and with a noticeably better bullpen. And lots of power hitters throughout the lineup.

This would be much easier with html, but...

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Can you stand up?
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The child is grown, the dream is gone.
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I have become comfortably numb.
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are we going anywhere this year WTF is up with having 30 million dlls in the DL??? Are we getting any middle relief soon?

Personally the music I associate with the Dodgers this season is Philip Glass's score for "Koyaanisqatsi".

28 - I've always been a Dodger fan but "Sabre philosophy", combined with the hiring of Depo, and the discovery of Dodger Thoughts, led to an level of personal fandom that reached a near obsession. And baseball generally became more interesting after the "Sabre principles" started to influence the game. Now that Depo's gone, I still root for the Dodgers but it ain't the same. So I would say on the contrary, "Sabre philosophy" (I use the term though I know some view it as vague, even meaningless) has led to an increased interest in the game.

44. I associate this season more with George Glass, Jan Brady's made up boy friend.

26, 27
You guys are right. How did I forget last season?

I guess those bad memories were pushed aside by the Bruins exciting football season, their Final Four run in basketball. And the Clippers.... how 'bout them Clips.

"And baseball generally became more interesting after the "Sabre principles" started to influence the game."
--------

I disagree with this rather strongly. Although I'm as big a proponent as anyone of using sabermetrics to help you win as much as possible, I think it makes the actual game on the field much less interesting. Walks and home runs and slothlike first basemen are boring. Triples and stolen bases and defensive wizards are fun.

And essentially, this is one of the main problems sabermetrics has getting public acceptance -- it emphasizes facets of the game that are not really very interesting.

45
I don't deny the increased "interest" in the game. I'm talking about the emotional attachment to players. Players like Kent and Drew are productive, and thus attractive from a "Sabre" point of view. But they don't inspire nearly the kind of emotional response that a player like Hee-Seop Choi inspires, despite the fact that they are more productive. Why is that?

While we may be "interested" in how players like Kent and Drew perform and produce, are we really "emotionally attached" to them? I, for one, am not.

Sabre or not, maybe the Dodgers could improve their tackling ability. Calling up Martin could be just the ticket!

(See pic: http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,635204772,00.html)

42 I didn't get through all the pictures, Eric, but that was pretty brilliant.

And I also agree with you in 48, but less on style of play issues. Rather, as a fan, the ant-sabre philosophy encourages you to believe that something akin to magic (or clean living) is the key to winning. Much for fun to root for magic than for statistical probabilities. I just don't want my GM making long term investments in magic or alchemy.

48 - How is sabermetrics against triples or good defensive play? I don't think using a sabermetric philosophy automatically leads to a reduction of those things.

ant-sabre = "anti=sabre"

(Correction on [51}

Does the Sabre philosophy mean that the Dodgers are going to be more of a forechecking team or more of a dump and chase squad?

49 - Personally, Drew is my favorite player since Gagne and Loduca were on top of LA (a whopping 2 or 3 years ago). I really enjoy watching JD play.

Mueller is likable enough. Nomar is pretty fun to watch.

Of course, the kids so far - Broxton, Loney, and Ethier - have really been fun to finally watch regularly.

Personally, Drew is my favorite player since Gagne and Loduca were on top of LA

Do you like Drew the person or Drew the career .900 OPS guy?

But they don't inspire nearly the kind of emotional response that a player like Hee-Seop Choi inspires, despite the fact that they are more productive. Why is that?

Its human nature to want to find a diamond in the rough. To see something before anyone else sees it. To pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby when he is a 2 yr old. To buy E-Bay stock when its in its infancy. Its why we like to say things like "yeah I like Alanis Morissette's [or whoever] early stuff much better."

48 - How is sabermetrics against triples or good defensive play? I don't think using a sabermetric philosophy automatically leads to a reduction of those things.
--------

Triples, you're right. But I think sabermetrics is certainly against good defensive play, in that it encourages playing the Joel Guzmans of the world in the infield instead of the Cesar Izturises of the world.

Do you like Drew the person or Drew the career .900 OPS guy?

You mean there is a real person there with a pulse and everything?

There is something about shelling out hard earned green backs to watch this tragedy unfold on the field that awakes one from their bemused malaise and sows the seeds of frustration.

Back on the Russ Martin topic again for a moment, another reason to like he and Billingsley (from last night's box score):

CS: Smith, C (1, 2nd base by Billingsley/Martin, R), Murphy (6, 2nd base by Billingsley/Martin, R).

(Notice that Carter got the save with a perfect inning btw?)

Just to put this in a little bit of perspective...
Tragedy is what's happening in Darfur.
Frustrating minor annoyance is what's happening on the baseball field.
(Not that I don't share your feelings about the frustrating malaise, but just thought a little check was in order.)

48 - Stolen bases and triples are definitely exciting. But were the Red Sox a boring team to watch in 2004? When the A's make late season runs for the playoffs are they boring to watch? I think if those influential principles has something to do with them winning it definitely increases the interest in the team. Though we can probably make a disctiction between an exciting brand of baseball which "sabre principles" probably do not support, and interesting teams, which are interesting simply because they win.

"Stolen bases and triples are definitely exciting. But were the Red Sox a boring team to watch in 2004? When the A's make late season runs for the playoffs are they boring to watch?"

Well, it's baseball, so it's never completely boring. But relative to, say, the way the White Sox play, you bet those teams are boring.

48 home runs and slothlike first basemen are boring

Home runs are boring? To me, baseball offers few thrills that surpass seeing a Thome or a Dunn pound the ball into an upper deck somewhere. I still remember where I was when Dunn hit that ball into the river last year. (OK, I was watching it right here on my TV, but still...)

And to second Jon's rebuttal, defense is a key component of Beane's teams. If some of his signings have seemed to stray from the walks and dingers approach, defense is usually the reason. Or so he has said.

56 - I've never met a big-leaguer, let alone gotten to know one, so I can't say that I've ever "liked one" in that sense.

I can say that I enjoy watching Drew go about playing the game - his approach, his swing, the way he plays the OF.

The .900 OPS is pretty sweet too.

62 - This entire site operates with the premise that this stuff doesn't compare to that stuff. I don't think that needs to be pointed out. I think people get that it's all relative.

Surely. Still, even in baseball terms, never mind the real world, I don't see what's unfolding with the Dodgers as a tragedy. However, it may be, as Woody Allen said in Bananas, "a travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham."

49--Production, for me, inspires emotional attachment. (Such is fandom, maybe.) I attach to last year's Kent, and to Drew for the same reason: because they're apt to deliver.

This team has yet to inspire true, deep-down despondency and disgust the way last year's did for me. Partly, it's the stuff bigcpa mentions in 37, partly it's the fact the team will inevitably get better whether or not they get good, partly it's getting to see the young ones in action at long last (with most anticipation still reserved for Bills, Guzman, Martin, maybe Kemp most especially.) Last year I just groaned and wondered what half these guys were doing on a big league roster.

Unfortunately, the ownership continues to inspire a level of distrust and unease even at their "best." But now and again teams succeed even with the worst of ownerships, so...we'll see.

64 - Do you think if the White Sox were losing people would say "Yeah, but they're fun to watch because of their style of play." Can you name a losing team that was exciting to watch because of their style of play?

64. The White Sox? How many triples did they hit last year versus how many home runs? How are Konerko and Thome not lumbering first basemen?

"Can you name a losing team that was exciting to watch because of their style of play?"
----
They weren't a losing team exactly, but the 2003 Dodgers.

"Home runs are boring? To me, baseball offers few thrills that surpass seeing a Thome or a Dunn pound the ball into an upper deck somewhere."
------
Well, to each his own. To me, the home run is the most boring play in baseball, unless it's inside the park or it's hit by Kirk Gibson in the World Series.

im a fan of the homerun.

Walks and station-to-station offenses are boring, but then again, so is bunting.

wait, we aren't talking about the "homerun"??

I'd be a fan of any kind of run after last night...

A solo shot when you're up 6-0 isn't that exciting... but then again, neither is a groundout to second that scores someone from third without a throw.

On the flipside, a successful stolen base or a triple on a head-first side is exciting, but so is a walk followed by a two-run blast when you're down by a run in the eighth.

67 - What? Nonsense! There is nothing more important than a game played by millionares in which they smack little round balls with wooden sticks. Nothing.

I would say on the SABR discussion, that it's not a question of devaluing defense as much as it is placing the proper value on it. A run saved = a run created, so if a player is a very good defensive player but an offensive black hole, that has to be balanced against a player who is weak defensively but creates lots of runs. Say Izturis saves 10 or even 20 more runs during the season than a Guzman would with defensive plays. But he is an abysmal hitter, and if Guzman then would create more runs with his offense, yes, he's worth playing over Izturis.

But the belief, or hope, is that Guzman will be an offensive force, capable of mashing the ball. There are plenty of players that are not -enough- more offensively capable than an Izturis type, so that it merits playing Cesar. Just as an example, in 2004, Izturis created 84 runs in 728 plate appearances (his best offensive season by far in his career). Jeff Kent, last season, created 105 runs in 637 PAs. So one can see that one would rather have 2005 Jeff Kent than 2004 Izturis in almost any situation, because Kent created more runs than Izturis saved (granted, there is a difference as Kent plays 2nd and Izturis plays SS, but I think the point gets across).

Of course, 2006 Jeff Kent has not yet hit to the lofty heights of his previous seasons. So don't take this as a defense of Kent or anything, just an explanation of why Sabermetrics seems to often argue against defense (because defense is a 'subjective' trait to most old baseball guys, it is often overvalued and reasonably good hitters can be found that create enough runs to make up for the lost defense that comes with a higher price tag).

Trade Andy now!

Double-A Jacksonville's Andy LaRoche is batting .238 after going 0-for-4 on Thursday. LaRoche shouldn't be a candidate for a callup if Bill Mueller needs to go on the disabled list. Along with the .238 average, he has just two homers in 101 at-bats. In 2005, he finished the minor league season with 30 homers. May. 5 - 2:55 pm et

Because his value is at its lowest?

79. Wouldn't Aybar be a more logical candidate for a call up anyway? Unless of course Andy was having an absolutely ridiculous start I don't see why he would be considered over a more seasoned prospect hitting extremely well a level above anyway.

79 - Aybar is the logical choice to replace Mueller anyway.

81 - Excellent point! :-)

i think watching a batter with good plate discipline battle against a pitcher and work a walk is exciting. i believe that successful stolen base attempts are exciting. home runs are exciting. good pitching is exciting.

pretty much, a baseball team that does things successfully is exciting. none of the things i mentioned are "anti-sabermetrics" because i thought the whole point of it is to help determine which players do these things well enough to help a team win ballgames.

teams that don't score runs, have sloppy defense, don't get on base, have bad pitching, and don't hit home runs are not fun to watch.

the dodgers, for example, are not very fun to watch these days. and it has nothing to do with sabermetrics, it's that they aren't playing well.

84 I agree. I would add fist pumps, jersey popping and roof raising to the list. All the things that Gagne and Bradley used to do when I liked the team better. Thank you.

85 Not a big fan of the Lofton-Navarro hand slap, are we?

Or the Tomko fist pump?

I think people are generally apathetic to the Dodgers because they've treated 2006 as a throwaway year. The team isnt good enough to win big. Nor are they developing any young talent for the future.

So in essence, 2006 is just a waste. Nothing is being accomplished.
When there isnt any thing to look forward to, nor is there anything in the present worth getting excited about, people tend to lose interest.

"Nor are they developing any young talent for the future."
----

That's the main problem, of course. They haven't been developing any young talent for the future -- well, except for Ethier, Kuo, Repko, Broxton, Osoria, Navarro, and probably soon, Martin and Billingsley...

In a perverse way I think its exciting to see how many games the bullpen can lose. If a Jimmy Rollins hitting streak can be exciting, why can't a blown games streak be as well? Its like rubber necking on the freeway.

"Nor are they developing any young talent for the future"

I don't understand how they aren't developing young talent for the future if the farm is loaded?

Dont worry, Matt Kemp is our savior guys.

Not only that, but already this year we've seen stints from Broxton, Ethier, Loney, and (probably) Martin and Billingsley before too long.

We're definitely seeing the kids getting a chance on the major-league roster.

inside the dodgers said they might call up billingsley or sele for odalis' start, he doesnt know yet.

by the end of the year I think we will see a lot of the kids break through and get some MLB at bats.

96--I have no doubt about it. No question we'll see Billingsley, Guzman and Martin soon enough.

I have to admit, I'm a little off Guzman, and wouldn't object to packaging him for, uh, something that's not middle relief.

Kemp, on the other hand...

89, 91
Yep, our farm system is loaded, and having seen the big superstars that Repko, Kuo, Osoria and Navarro have turned into, I just can't wait for the rest to come up.

Yep, our farm system is loaded, and having seen the big superstars that Repko, Kuo, Osoria and Navarro have turned into, I just can't wait for the rest to come up.

your sarcasm is noted. But very flawed. Repko was horrible his first year, this year he has progressed a ton. Navarro was good for a catcher, especially a rookie catcher. This year after starting out slow, he was just getting into his groove. Kuo and Osoria are rookies, thinking they are going to come in and dominate right away is only to set yourself up for a disappointment.

But yea, that type of impatient attitude is why the Dodger have not had a decent crop of young talent in about 8 years.

98. I can't believe you didn't mention that none of those guys was considered a reason that the farm system is loaded, except for Kuo and perhaps Navarro.

By the way, since you're around, what is going on with DeWitt so far? I was hoping that he was going to break out this year.

98
Rarely is the question asked, how impatient is McColletti?

Dewitt is starting off slow in the power department. His average isnt bad, and he walking at a very good rate. So i am not too worried really. Last year, he had a so-so first half and a very strong finish. I am hoping the same from him.

Dewitt and Laroche are the same for me, as im not too worried about them right now. Just starting out a bit slow. If its mid june and they are still hitting 250/340/350 then i will start to worry. But these are two very talented players and i dont think it will get that far.

I'll feel better when Aybar/Ethier/Repko are getting more at bats than Mueller/Lofton.

Even better when Navarro/Martin are both catching and Sandy Alomar is not on the team.

When Joel Guzman can replace the dime a dozen scrap heap vet utility guy, also known as Ramon Robles, that will be a good day.

Then completely at ease with the Dodgers when Billingsley/Houlton/Orenduff are in the starting rotation and Seo/Tomko are not.

If those times come, and the young players are learning at the MLB level, I'll feel the Dodgers are accomplishing something.

Orenduff hasnt been very good at jacksonville so far. He does lead the league in Ks, but he has allowed more hits then IP, and more homeruns then you would like. And he still doesnt have overwhelming stuff.

How can he lead the league in K's without overwhelming stuff?

105 Probably he's a lot smarter and more polished than the hitters at this point. Remember, Tomko struck out the side last night despite not having overwhelming stuff.

It's not your equipment, but how you use it...

Dont the catchers still call the pitches in AA?

105 - The NL K leaders right now look like:

1. Harang
2. Pedro
3. Glavine
4. Capuano
5. Lidle
5. C Zambrano
7. El Duque

I'd argue that 5 of the 7 on that list have less than overwhelming stuff. Early season statistical flukes.

I guess I just don't get the knee-jerk reaction to stay away from ANY veterans. Mueller, Lofton and (gasp) even Seo and Tomko have made positive contributions to the team, even if some of them are slumping at the moment.

I'm all for promoting the youth movement, but I don't see why it has to be a total either/or situation. There's plenty of room for the Dodgers to have a solid season and slowly ease the way for the young guys.

How can he lead the league in K's without overwhelming stuff?

Because he has a good slider and his other pitches are average. He also gives up more homeruns then you would like.

111 - Navarro and Martin on the roster at the same time.

I don't see a problem with this, but not while Alomar is still hitting.

Guzman shouldn't even sniff the bigs this year, as far as I'm concerned. Unless, of course it's in a Reds or Marlins jersey.

112
Guzman, LaRoche, Odalis, and Kent for either Dunn or Cabrera.

"Stuff" is just a term scouts use. Its useless IMO. A pitcher either gets results or he doesnt.

Since Orenduff has been labeled a pitcher with not much "stuff", it would be almost impossible for him to change that subjective opinion, despite tremendous strikeout numbers. What more can he do?

Beane was right when he fired most of his scouts. Its this sort of nonsense that stays with a player, that really should have no bearing on someone's opinion of that player.

"Stuff" for a pitcher is akin to Choi having a "slow" bat. Its not relevant to the discussion and totally undermines the value of a player's actual on-field accomplishments (you know, the things that actually pertain to winning). But I'm a numbers guy. I dont care how something 'looks'. We're not selling jeans here.

Guzman, LaRoche, Odalis, and Kent for either Dunn or Cabrera

How much of Odalis/Kent's contracts do you have to pay for either the Reds or Marlins to take that deal?

I doubt that would ever be considered by them.

102 -- But not for long.

Let's bring up Joel Guzman to be a utility guy

Doesnt he play like every position? Instead of keeping Martinez and Robles, couldnt Guzman do what they both do and get quite a few at bats doing it?

117 Is Marvin getting web time at juvi hall today?

I am convinced Guzman is going to be league-average at best. Too many strikeouts right now.

109. I think the one or the other approach is that its not like this team is going to win a world series, maybe a nothing division like the NL West buy should we really have spent that much money to become this year's version of the 2005 Padres?

106. I thought that Tomko did have good stuff, but it was his head that was the problem.

112. Please don't do that little sarcastic mmmmkay. It's just really annoying.

I'm actually surprised he hasnt asked for an Antonio Perez update. Of course, the best place to go for Antonio Perez stats would be the ESPN, Yahoo, or OaklandA's main page. Not here.

120
Evidently so.

Despite his emaciated appearence, it's really best not to feed Starvin' Marvin.

118 - I simply don't think that he'd be very successful in the bigs right now, regardless of what position he walks out to after striking out again.

Aybar should be your utility guy. He could get 4-5 starts a week right now (15-20 AB's), especially if they "let" him play short.

Sure. 10 AB's a week

Are you planning on playing Lofton, Furcal and Nomar every day? Guzman could be getting two starts at SS, 1 start at 1st, and probably 1 in the OF every single week.

Look at how the Reds broke in Edwin Encarnacion last year. This year thats paying off.

Since Orenduff has been labeled a pitcher with not much "stuff", it would be almost impossible for him to change that subjective opinion, despite tremendous strikeout numbers. What more can he do?

I agree that results should be valued over perceived ability but concerning Orenduff, his results havent been great. Sure he was very good in the FSL, but as a 22 yr old college polished pitcher, he was suppose to do well in the FSL. His true test is at the AA level and so far, he has been average there. Look at the numbers from last year at AA and look at them this year, they are relatively the same. high hit rate, below average walk rate, below average homerun rate, and a good k rate.

Yes Orenduff is striking people out, but he isnt doing the other things to be successful. Statistical analysis isnt always correct, and scouting isnt always correct either so to totally shun either one is bad judgement in my opinion.

Aybar should be your utility guy.

They wont let him play SS. And he cant play the OF either. I wouldnt mind seeing him play 3rd everyday if Mueller is out for awhile.

Joel Guzman is so versatile, and with the old guys that cant play everyday to begin with on the Dodgers, I think he'd get plenty of AB's.

The one post that showed something positive was
BigCPA "- Pythag Record is 14-14. The bullpen and Lady Luck are the reasons for the 2-9 in 1-run games. giving our Pytho record"

This shouldn't be glossed over. As bad as the bullpen is and the run of injuries combined with the Kent/Furcal slumps this team is really playing 500 ball and that is a positive. Once the bullpen works out the kinks I'm still confident this team will be a force in the West. I think the time will come very soon that Billingsly will end up pitching out of the bullpen. He is averaging under 6 innngs per start right now and I'm not sure that this bullpen could handle a 5 inning starter. Our bullpen is to rocky to let a talent like Billingsly continue to pitch in AAA. He's proven what he can do and it is time to move him on up in some capacity.

Penny/Lowe/Tomko are all pitching solid. Seo is getting there and OP is in purgatory. I've never been an OP fan but he is either hiding an injury or is being emotionally upset with the health situation of his mother. He is not this bad a pitcher.

I'm hoping Navarro just has a bruise. As much as I'd like to get a look at Martin, Dionar had kicked his offense into high gear the last nine games.

When Izzy comes back, we can remove Robles/Ramon from the team and bring up Aybar and then our bench will be much improved since Aybar can cover 2nd/3b and hit with Izzy providing the coverage needed for SS. Both are switchitters with good speed and should be upgrades over the R boys.

128 - Look at how the Reds broke in Edwin Encarnacion last year

ESPN reports Edwin got 200 ab's at 3rd, and 11 PH appearances last year. I don't see anything that would spell "utility".

Not trying to be nit-picky, just that I have him on my fantasy team, and he's 3B eligible only. Thought I was getting hosed there.

130 - If they won't let Aybar play short, I don't think they would let Guzman play there either. I think they're passed the "Guzman is a shortstop" now.

My point was that he only got 200 AB's. But it still was better than spending all of last season at AAA.

if guzman is hitting .314/.388/.548 with a 21% krate around 290ABs, then sure, call him up.

until then, he needs to prove he can control the strike zone.

134 - Point taken.

However, I'm not sure that spending that time in the bigs helped him this year.

What has helped is his 14 walks in 98 ab's this year, as compared to 20 in 211 ab's last year.

Is that directly correlated with his failures last year? Can't say for sure, really.

Would Guzman coming up and OBP'ing .280 while playing 4 different positions really help him?

135 - .314/.388/.548 with a 21% krate

Is this where he's at right now?

I'd rather see the Dodgers call up all their young players and watch them lose 100 games than see a team full of mediocre veterans play marginally better. Moves that should be made at the deadline (if the Dodgers are out of contention)

-Trade Kent for anyone with an expiring contract or a mid level prospect. The Dodgers may have pay half of Kent's salary for next season.
-Trade Baez for a couple of prospects
-If Tomko is still pitching well at the deadline, unload him
-Goodbye Lofton, Nomar, and Mueller- all should be able to bring back some nice prospects if healthy

New team:
1. Furcal SS
2. Aybar 3B
3. Drew RF
4. Cruz LF
5. Ethier/Repko CF
6. Loney/Saenz
7. Navarro/Martin C
8. Robles 2B

SP
Penny
Lowe
Perez
Billingsley
Houlton

Trade Baez for a couple of prospects

Throw in Carter as well. That should be enough to get a couple of starting pitcher prospects.

134 is a very debatable point.

129
Nate is right about Orenduff and his "A" numbers. Remember this was a college pitcher when he hit the FSL league and he was suppossed to be dominant. Even BP has shown that "A" dominance means nothing. Many pitchers have shown dominance at "A" only to lose the dominance as they were moved up. Orenduff still has the chance to be a decent 3/4 starter but he needs to prove it at "AA" and as Nate has said, he's only been average so far. He has no chance of being an ace unless you think Tomko is an ace. Tomko was drafted out of college and dominated during his brief turn at single A ball. He averaged over a strikeout an inning during his brief 2 1/2 minor league career. Then just like many minor league pitchers, once he hit the majors he has never come close to that level of dominance again. I'm not saying all aces have to be dominant pitchers but whenever you bring up Orenduff you always point to his single A dominance which means nothing because of the age difference between him and his peers.

138 We would have to be 8 back at the deadline for most of that to happen. Ned strikes me as a guy that will be a buyer at the deadline every year. It's no fun trying to explain Green for Navarro trades to the local wolves.

Also that's a big promotion for Cruz from 23rd man to cleanup hitter.

I have to agree with Oldbear in that Guzman would make an excellent utility player in that he can play 1st,SS,3b,LF,RF and if he had to even CF. I just think he needs another 150-200 at bats at AAA. He's cut his K rate way down after a very shakey start. If the team continues to tank and they are out of it come July then we should give him a set position but if were back in the race I think he could be invaluable in late summer in the role that Oldbear suggested.

137 - Nevermind. Guzman is at .327/.363/.548, but still only has 6 walks in 100 PA's.

I think Guzman would struggle to hit .250 in the bigs, and with his isolated patience, his OBP would be way south of .300.

In other words, very Juan Encarnacion-ish.

142
Maybe he meant Nelson Cruz from the Brewers AAA team. If we clean house maybe we end up with him but I'd rather have Corey Hart.

[138] what's wrong with seo? i'd rather see him in the rotation than odalis right now.

144
If he can give us the 1998 version of Juan which was his 1st year in the bigs I think we'd take it. In 164 at bats 329/354/561. He has never come close to any of those numbers ever again. If the Tigers had traded Juan in the winter of 98 they would have received a bundle.

145 Corey Hart? As long as he doesn't wear his sunglasses at(for) night (games).

Regardless of whether we think Guzman could play short or third base, I don't think Ned will ever let him near those positions now.

143 - I guess I don't get this logic. Neither his bat nor glove appear to be major-league ready. What's the rush to force him into the bigs.

With Aybar, he appears to be ready offensively, but doesn't have a position. He's a guy they should find a way to get into the lineup everyday. Teach him to play short. Get him an OFer's glove, a firstbasemen's mitt. Whatever, just get him in the lineup, because all signs point to him being a solid contributor at the ML-level.

Mostly in response to 138, but germane to this whole discussion.

We've got Jeff Kent locked up for 2 (two) more years. Jeepers creepers. I would love to have Kent on the block at the dealine, and even adding 2007 to his old deal would have made that possible, but . . .

Is this the Nedsters worst move to date?

149
I heard Ned talk about using Guzman in just the way that Oldbear mentioned during spring training when it appeared he might make the team. It is not so farfetched.

150
Power, this team is devoid of power and Aybar has many skills but power is not one of them.

152 That's funny, I seem to remember him talking about being too big and slow to play short and third. But I can't point to anything specific, so I may be combining memories.

152 - Power, this team is devoid of power and Aybar has many skills but power is not one of them.

The lineup in 138 is painfully awful, especially from the power dept, so I'm apt to agree with you if it heads in that direction.

However, I'm not sure that Ned wants a 100-loss season in his first year or two on the job, so I'm thinking that's not the direction we go in.

139 -- Only from a handful of teams. The Royals, Pirates, Nationals...

152-I'm sure it's just Las Vegas talkin', but Aybar has more home runs presently than Guzman, no?

Why would Las Vegas be talking for one of them and not the other?

157 - That's what John Daly and Charles Barkley are wondering.

aybar is a crafty old veteran who has simply learned to take advantage of the vegas environment, see.

OT: Being from RI, I just want to say how proud I am that Rep. Patrick Kennedy and I are alumni of the same high school.

That man is committed to his job--Going to make a vote on the Hill at 3:00 a.m. You can't teach dedication like that.

156 They both have 6.

160 Look at the bright side. At least there were no dead girls or bodies of water involved.

Actually, if you look at the individual box scores of each of Orenduff's games he has been dominant after his first start of the season.

He was blasted in his first start giving up 10 hits in 3 IP. Since then he has been dynamite, giving up less than 1 hit per inning, striking out a ton of batters, walking few and giving up few runs. Take away his first start and he is doing very well at AA.

Looking at individual game stats gives a better view of a players progress or regress than composite stats.

161--Ah. Aybar had a burst of them early, I guess.

A not-really-related trivia question for anyone who might know...a friend of mine just observed to me there is but one pitcher in the hall of fame who's under six feet tall. That seemed sort of incredible to me. Just one? (It grew out of a conversation about Pedro Martinez, alas.) He refuses to tell me who it might be. Anyone know?

164 - baseball-reference reports that Sandy Koufax was 6'2".

I am now out of ideas.

Whitey Ford is listed as 5'10"

[164] whitey ford was 5'10"

164 Whitey Ford was 5'10" but that was only the first one I tried.

bah, 30 seconds late.

... and stanley covaleski is listed at 5'11".

i feel better now :)

http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/features/experts/06_07_00.stm

(except for the fact that i misspelled coveleski)

164 Furgedit- there are tons of em. Jack Chesbro, Joe McGinnity, Mordecai Brown.

162. Yes, by that standard he must be a disappointment to his Uncle, not to mention his cousin (I think)William.

billingsley and aybar named dodgers minor league pitcher and player of the month.

http://tinyurl.com/jxbft

Is Patrick Kennedy a real-life version of Teddy Quimby?

"May all your disgraces be private."

173, 172 etc--

Thanks big, Vishal and others. I knew someone would know. (And my friend appears to be misinformed.)

175- no love for Sele?

I highly recommend reading Steve Rushin's column in the new issue of Sports Illustrated on prolific letter writer Ralph Brax, whose many of you have probably seen in the letters to the editor of the LA Times sports section. It's a fun piece about this witty guy, and you should read the whole thing yourself but just for laughs(?) it ends with this:

"Who is Ralph S Brax? He's Pagliacci turned inside out, crying on the outside, laughing on the inside. 'I enjoy misery,' admits Brax, who can't resist adding, 'That's why I'm a Dodgers fan.'" Guess he's enjoying himself a great deal lately.

no love for Sele?

Billingsley was better then Sele.

But you're right. Great April Sele. Keep it up, you'll be in the show in no time!

ouch cain. first inning, gives up two absolute bombs to utley and howard.

181 You say that like it's a bad thing. Heh.

Yeah, that one has all the makings of a real pitcher's duel.

So far, eight of the ten teams playing have scored a run in the first inning. Pittsburgh failed to score, but no one can expect them to ever score, even off Zach Day

183 - Bad year to be an "O. Perez" in a box score.

Howard owns Cain. Another homerun, this time a shot to left center. Wow this kid is a beast.

The dodgers are really inhibiting on the 51s chances to take home the PCL crown. Martin called up.

lineup:

Furcal, SS

Cruz, LF

Garciaparra, 1B

Drew, RF

Kent, 2B

Repko, CF

Martinez, 3B

Martin, C

Lowe, P

Alou just fell down and slammed into the right field foul wall.

he was going in slow motion. And he slipped and fell in slow motion. I think he injured his lower back.

Neither Martin nor Aybar are starting for Vegas tonight. Houlton is starting though, so he likely won't be promoted for Sunday

check that, he rolled his ankle.

I hope that Joel sees all these gusy are getting promoted right in front of him and he continues to improve.

whoops i meant to say "guys".

Speaking of Joel, I freaked out a little while ago when I first glanced at the headline reading "SS Guzman to have season-ending surgery" - before I remembered "our" Guzman is no longer a SS, and C Guz of the Nats is the one who's been hurt. So, never mind.

186 Did you hear for sure that Martin was called up?

Utley with his 2nd homer off Cain. Thats 4 homeruns in 4IP off cain.

I hate the Giants but also hate to see M Alou carted off the field. I hope it doesn't turn out to be a severe injury. And hope the Giants go on to lose.

192 Ignore me, I saw the note in the newer discussion thread above. Well, Buena Suerte, Senor Martin.