Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Fifteen wins, three losses.
Runs scored: 120. Runs allowed: 57.
The last time I waxed about a Dodger hot streak was right when the team was 12-2 last year, and we know what happened after that. Still, other than the possibility that it might have been a jinx, there isn't much I really need to disavow about that post, which didn't suggest that the team would maintain such a ridiculous pace (though neither did I gather that the team would collapse under the weight of injuries and Jim Tracy-Paul DePodesta conflict). Mostly, it was about enjoying the long moment.
Good teams and bad can go on 12-2 runs during a season, but for me, there's an aura to being 12-2. And since J.D. Drew homered in the eighth inning to tie the game and since Jose Valentin tripled in the 10th inning to win it, I haven't stopped shaking my head.That list of names in the last paragraph shows you how fleeting happiness can be, huh? That's Cautionary Tale No. 1.Winning breeds chemistry. You can see it in the elation of Valentin, Odalis Perez, Milton Bradley, Duaner Sanchez - those are just a few of the people I saw jumping up and down in the dugout after the Dodgers took their first lead of the game. You can hear it in the fascination in the voice of Vin Scully, "privileged" to be one of the announcers for the all-time great Dodger team of 1955 and amazed that a group of guys thrown together in 2005 could challenge the camaraderie of their predecessors of exactly 50 years ago. And you can feel it in your own skin - that tingle that makes you so jumpy, you can't sit down. It's not life or death, it's just fun.
Cautionary Tale No. 2 is that the Dodgers' current run of 15 wins in 18 games has only served to put the team in second place in the National League West and tied for wild-card position with Cincinnati. So in a sense, they've only just begun to contend. More from last April:
Yes, the Dodgers will hit their rough spot. Last season, the team started 22-10 and built an eight-game lead over the Giants, only to go 15-25 and let San Francisco back in.So much for the cautionary tales. Now, for some bridled enthusiasm.But I've made this point during the previous two seasons - in 2003 when the Dodgers trailed the Giants early, and 2004 when they led them. The beauty of a cushion is that you can lose it. You have some breathing room. You can regroup. And if a team catches you by making up a lot of ground, odds are that team spent its best run and is due to fall back.
I've said it often enough that I'm already tired of it, but my mantra all year has been that because it was becoming time for prospects to mature, the Dodgers would get better as the season progressed. That didn't take into account Aaron Sele somehow fooling major league hitters with his 84-mile-per-hour-or-less stuff, but I still have the faith. As Rob McMillin points out at 6-4-2, "It does appear that the Dodgers' streak lately has been fueled by a fair amount of luck on batted balls, but not overly so."
This year's Dodgers are in a good group. Thirteen teams in Los Angeles Dodger history have had an 18-game run of 15 wins or more, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Six of those teams finished in first place and six more finished in second (including the 1962 and 1980 teams that lost in pre-postseason playoffs). Nine of the teams won at least 90 games, and only the 1993 team won fewer than 88.
Year | 18-Game Run | Season Record | NL (West) Finish |
---|---|---|---|
1961 | 15-3 | 89-65 | 2 |
1962 | 16-2 | 102-63 | 2 |
1963 | 15-3 | 99-63 | 1 |
1965 | 15-3 | 97-65 | 1 |
1975 | 15-3 | 88-74 | 2 |
1976 | 16-2 | 92-70 | 2 |
1977 | 16-2 | 98-64 | 1 |
1980 | 15-3 | 92-71 | 2 |
1982 | 15-3 | 88-74 | 2 |
1983 | 15-3 | 91-71 | 1 |
1985 | 15-3 | 95-67 | 1 |
1993 | 15-3 | 81-81 | 4 |
2004 | 16-2 | 93-69 | 1 |
The NL West hasn't given up its fight yet, and the Dodgers will stop playing .833 ball any day now. A .331 batting average with men on first base, a .332 batting average with men in scoring position - no, I don't think numbers like those will hold. That doesn't mean there aren't reasons to be excited.
Or is Jon more like the new guy, Ben Bernanke, and he'll just leak info to Maria Bartiromo at a party?
With Furcal heating up it seems that Nomar, JD, Kent, and even Aybar always have someone on base when they bat. I love watching the rabbits run and the heavy hitters knock them in. I was very giddy after the 12-2 start so I could be in for a rude awakening but I do like watching this team play.
I think some of Bluetahoe's posts have been over-the-top, but there's nothing wrong with his excitement.
My enthusiasm is bridled at the moment. I'm keeping one eye on all the reasons why this might fall apart -- all the things you mentioned...
...but I'm only keeping one eye on that stuff. The other eye is starting to go googly with love for the team.
I didn't read it, but from the paraphrase offered here, it sounds like Plaschke was right (for the wrong reasons) about the 2006 Dodgers resembling the 2002 Angels. No HRs, lots of "long-sequence" innings. Last night: 11 singles, 1 double.
The one thing these Dodgers add to the formula is walks. Which is a good thing. The only other way to do it is to have everyone in the lineup hitting .300 (which those Angels did for a while) and that requires insane amounts of luck on BABIP. So the walks are quite nice.
Here's a link to the NOAA's DC weather page:
http://tinyurl.com/cxsrt. Chance of rain friday, small chance saturday, sunday looks impossibly beautiful.
Any number of things can go wrong still, but I, for one, am glad I've got tickets locked up for a few late-season games. Now all we need is a self-flagellating albino.
The heroic trio of Graffanino, Berroa, and Mientkiewicz went back-to-back.
I'm really curious to see how the Royals will blow this game.
That team is truly dreadful. I feel very sorry for Royals fans.
Also, the one predictible thing about Grady is his unpredictability regarding his bullpen usage. No time or energy to do this but I cannot recall Tracy having his relievers throw 2 innings on a consistent basis. In this homestand, Baez did it once, Broxton twice and I think Beimel did it once. And these were in games where most of the time the Dodgers had a grand slam proof lead.
Right now, the latest Grady pecking order in the bullpen in order of preference must be Saito, Baez, Broxton, Beimel, Hamaluck, Carter. Odalis is in own separate place. Would be surprised if they DFAed anyone, more likely Carter or Hamaluck get sent down when Gagne returns.
Last night, "A" Martinez said that Odalis has been a good guy about his situation but he has also rightly said that the Dodgers can't keep 9MM on the bench forever.
I believe it was Rob Neyer or Jayson Stark on espn.com that said that he would not be surprised to see Odalis (and Jose Cruz, Jr.) in pinstripes (always slimming Odalis) in June.
I'm sure some here would take a couple slices of John's pizza in return for that deal.
What I'm most excited about is the fact our pitching has come around. Our starters are in a GROOVE. Our bullpen is finally getting its act straight. JBrox is reminding me a lot of Mota. When Gagne comes back, the nickname of our bullpen should be "THE FAB FIVE", featuring Gagne, Saito and the "B" Boys (pronounced bo-eeez)The B Boys of course being Broxy, Beimel, and Baez.
Anyone going to tomorrows night game? I am. I'll be there for all 3. YIPPEEE.
I'll be seeing the "O"-Gang toeing the rubber to start each game.
brett tomk"O"
derek l"OWE"
and jae s"EO"
This post has been brought to you by a proud owner of a blue chevrolet tah"OE"
1. They haven't played St. Louis
2. They haven't played New York
3. They've lost two of three to Atlanta
4. They split six games with Houston
5. They haven't played Philly
6. They've lost three of five to Arizona
Those six teams, along with the Dodgers, are the contenders in the NL. How the Dodgers play against them will be indicative of whether they will be able to beat anyone in the playoffs. They need to maintain at least a .500 record against these teams and beat up on the bad teams consistently. At this point, they are 6-8 against contenders. A small sample size, to be sure, which also means we don't know enough about this team yet to say whether it may be something special.
I had not seen that before.
It's nice that the Dodgers are winning, but they haven't really played any good teams.
Wait, there are only four good teams in the NL.
My bad. So their record against contenders is 8-9.
Which four teams are you talking about? Right now I only see three based upon record and run differential, Cardinals, Mets, Dodgers.
BTW, the Dodgers have the best run differential in baseball right now.
When I said four good teams, I should have said four other good teams.
Of course you have to beat the teams below you. But the Sox and Yankees usually play each other evenly throughout the year. And they usually lose a few to the other divisions' contenders. They're usually around .500 against the good teams.
The Dodgers still haven't played either of the current division leaders, hurt and struggling or not.
I'm not saying that they won't perform well, it just remains to be seen how the Dodgers match up against the powerhouses. If they struggle against the Mets and Cards like they have in recent years, they're not going to go anywhere in the playoffs.
Atlanta has also done well in interleague play.
But if you can rack up 55-60 or so wins in your division and interleague, you have a pretty good shot at being there in September.
Being there in September is one thing. Being there in October is another. The Dodgers have one a total of one playoff game from 1989-present.
Maybe I'm being overly demanding, but what is the point of getting in the playoffs if you keep getting shoved right back out? At least the A's, even though they haven't won a series recently, have put up pretty good fights against the Yanks and Sox.
However, they are a little slight in their starters, they rely a lot on home runs and if they hold true about not trading Milledge, not sure what they can do at the deadline.
Willis or Zito would make them a prohibitive favorite.
In looking at whether this run means anything, its pretty clear that most all of our key players are hot right now. The question is, how many of them are playing above their heads and are likely to backslide. I figure like this -
Furcal - not playing above his head
Cruz - no
Lofton - probably, but not by much
Nomar - ????
Drew - no
Kent - no
Ethier - yes
Aybar - yes
Martin - yes
Penny - no
Lowe - yes, maybe
Tomko - yes
Seo - no
Sele - ya think?
Baez - no
Saito - probably
Beimel - yes
Brox - no
Hamaluck - no
Carter, Perez - does it matter?
Bottom line. The pitching is probably not this good. They're riding good runs from some unlikely guys (Sele, Beimel, Saito). Gagne could change the equation.
Lowe's a question mark due to his mercurial history. Its possible he could pitch this well all year.
Nomar is the one that I really don't know what to do with. His recent display does reflect the level he established in his hey day, so maybe he can keep it up. In the back of my mind, I keep thinking Griffey, Jr. (flashes of the the former brilliance interrupted by frequent breakdowns).
The rookies are bound to struggle eventually, and for the most part, weren't even this good in the minors.
My prediction. We will not go 142-20.
One of the nuggests of wisdom that I took from my time of reading Bill James religiously is that really good teams don't really give a hoot about 1-run games; they win by larger margins than that.
Don't take everything you read by that guy as the only truth. A team that is built on pitching and defense will be involved in more one run games than a team that is built around hitters and what ever else that they can put together. I do not know the statistics, but the Yankees last year tried to out hit their mediocre pitching. My guess is that in the games they won it was by a large margin but so were their loses.
In the past 10 years, only the 1998 Yankees or whatever team won 110+ games, rolled into the postseason and took it all.
I think all you can do is work to get there and then once you are in, it is all matchups.
If Rivera doesn't blow two saves, the Yankees could have 2 more championships. If the Giants could have gotten 9 more outs, they beat the Angels, Bartman in Chicago, Mike Scioscia hitting a 2 run homer against Dwight Gooden, etc. In 1983, the Dodgers beat the Phillies 10 or 11 times out of 12, lost in 4, in 1988, the Mets beat the Dodgers 11 out of 12, Dodgers in 7.
Are all of these selective to make a point, yes. But lets get there first, maybe the tipping point will be Chad or Joel or Kemp or a trade that will give the Dodgers a boost, but at least we have something to look forward too, instead of seeing if Mike Edwards is playing 3B or LF today.
That's pretty good. Rivera makes a difference. But, anyway you get my point.
"One general manager sat on his hands. The other slept by his phone. One GM was inactive. The other was hyperactive. One went after a targeted player and lost him. The other targeted so many players, he couldn't lose them all."
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/sports/columns/article_1155354.php
Now, guess the year and whether praise or criticism for the Dodgers follows.
I'm still mystified by attempts to make value judgments on activity vs. inactivity. Success does not depend on how busy you are, but rather on the quality of your decisions, no matter how many.
Look at the 2003 Dodgers. Best in baseball at pitching and defense (best EVER on the pitching side, no?), but worst in baseball on offense. Result: mediocrity.
Faltering in the first inning, falling just short in the ninth, unable to hit in the clutch, incapable of winning on the road, if not for this, if not for that, one-run loss after one-run loss, blah, blah, blah ...
http://www.postgazette.com/pg/06145/693024-63.stm
Dejan isn't really buying what Jim Tracy is trying to sell him later in the story.
Straight out of the John Wooden canon. "Never mistake activity for achievement."
I tend to cite this whenever a student complains that they wrote a whole page for an exam answer, but got zero points.
looks like the astros were running wild on lecroy. maybe that factored into his getting pulled from the game.
Maybe the quote was out of context. All I'm saying is that the blanket statement does not cover very well.
Keep going to them, then see how it plays out. I know that hasn't worked for the Athletics, but they've been a load of fun to follow. If the Red Sox and Yankees can make going to the playoffs a habit, why shouldn't the Dodgers?
For the first time in many, many years the Dodgers seemingly have a realistic chance of sustaining success -- I'm not talking about sustaining the current pace of winning, of course, but keeping the summers interesting and challenging for the playoffs on a consistent basis.
I'm not saying that's how it will play out, but it's been quite some time since the chances were this favorable. Nor is it difficult to envision the Diamondbacks, who could be very entertaining, turning this into a spirited rivalry the next few years.
For me, the whole story so far this year is the franchise's organizational depth, which has allowed the club to offset several injuries, win at a nice clip yet also buy vital development time for the likes of Billingsley and Kemp while reducing the built-in temptation to rush Gagne back.
Sele, in particular, has already returned full value on his $500,000 salary.
Right, Esteban German.
Or maybe it's starting to get hot and humid there where he is; DC summers are awful. ;)
Weather here is great actually -- check the link in 9 -- though not Hawai'i great. Hasn't heated or humided up yet.
The A's have been fun to follow because they have won games in the playoffs. They put quite a scare into whoever they're playing, every single year. On the other hand, the Dodgers have been dominated in the playoffs whenever they make it. I don't mind my team losing in the playoffs. I would just appreciate them putting up a decent fight.
Only if (1) continues doing well, or (2) quits while he's ahead. If he tanks his next 4 starts, then maybe, maybe not.
At this point, yeah, he's been a huge bargain. I say we sell him to the Yankees before reality rears its head.
The fact that he even has value is even more amazing. Flip him Ned, flip him now. I've loved the Sele show, I have zero faith it will end up pretty unless he is moved ASAP. May is almost over and he will turn into the biggest pumpkin at midnight on May 31st.
I haven't a clue, but maybe it's analogous to Sele -- after 4-6 soft landings, you retire the chute.
It has occured to me, though, that James' view on this matter might have been colored by the fact that his home team is an AL team, and it agrees more with the AL style of ball than the NL.
"Paddlin' the school canoe? Oh, you better believe that's a paddlin'."
http://www.timesleader.com/mld/timesleader/14662386.htm
I'm sort of confused, though - the description makes it sound like Thurston went the other way with the ball but hit it to right field. Did he start batting righty?
http://tinyurl.com/jehco
http://tinyurl.com/fmh4s
"Red Baron fans know Joe Thurston as a slick-fielding second baseman with a reputation as an aggressive base runner.
But one day Thurston would like to be known as an ultra-hip disc jockey with a reputation for mixing some of the hottest dance tunes."
Although the question about parachutes was rhetorical, I have learned that parachutes are now designed out of extremely sturdy types of nylon and are designed to be reused many, many, many times.
I don't have access to the mil spec for how many times it has to be.
Interesting. Probably more times than Sele should be used.
On the other hand, I won't be buying one of Bob's high quality chutes either 'cuz I, for one, have never been given an adequate reason for jumping out of perectly good airplane that's going to be safely landing back right near where I parked my car in the first place.
[ slowly shakes head, mutters under breath, shuffles back to car ]
""We got behind, came back and put ourselves in position to win..."
Ahh, vintage Jim.
I found some parachute companies that sold chutes in numerous varieties with a lot of pricing structures.
I didn't bother to examine them.
I don't plan on jumping out of an airplane unless I absolutely have to. I doubt I would be allowed to do it recreationally since I have a history of seizures.
I really am feeling sorry for them.
I believe they could connect the pitch speeds, but it might slow down everything if they have more info to display.
After getting swept by the Dodgers, the Nationals go to Philadelphia on Memorial Day. But it's a night game? Shouldn't monday holiday games be day games?
I love to watch that dang show but the longer you watch it, the more confusing it gets. What happened to the plan with Sayeed last night?
--Michael led the group somewhere different from where he had told Jack they would be going. In other words, misdirection.
I have no bad feelings about Walt but I hope Michael isn't written out of the show yet. I want to see him one more time, captured by canibals and slowly choking as he is roasted over a good fire.
--I can't imagine that's the last of Michael.
What he did was just unforgivable. And Libby? Apparently they're going to expand her role, make her part of the controlling agents, whoever, whatever, they are. I'll have trouble buying into that because her character was so stupid and insipid I won't be able to credit her with enough intelligence to be part of the control.
--Libby's the one character I've thought from the start was playing dumb, but really part of things.
But maybe sending Hurley back to his own people came about becaus of her influence??? Taking Jack, Kate, and Sawyer could be just depriving the group of its leadership. If so, why leave Sayeed? Or did they? I'm more confused than ever.
--It's still a mystery (to me) what they want out of people - why they wanted Walt a year ago but were happy to be rid of him now. But clearly, The Others don't have all the answers - whatever their plan is, it's a work in progress.
I'm fascinated by the discussion in the Griddle thread of Pennyelope and Odysseusmond.
I continue to read nothing about the upcoming season, but with main characters like Jack in the hands of the Others, I suspect we'll learn more of their inner workings, just like we learned about the hatch(es) in season 2. I'm looking forward to it. And as Bob said, Michael Emerson is just fantastic as Henry Gale - the revelation about him last night was cool.
I agree.
The Royals are on pace to win 36 games.
Slight quibbles about the Michael/Walt resolution aside (which won't be quibbles at all if those two characters are a part of season 3), I thought this finale was simply brilliant, and opened up a sense of a much larger "universe".
"Tears of sadness streamed down both of Frank Robinson's cheeks, and his voice quivered, even in the aftermath of an 8-5 victory. The Washington Nationals manager had been cornered into a move rarely seen in baseball, the benching of a catcher in the middle of an inning."
Yikes.
http://tinyurl.com/o2b98
Bily Rowell homerun derby video.
he is a 6'4 200 lb SS prepster who is rising significantly up draft boards. I am starting to really like him at #7 if Kershaw is gone.
BA ranks him #3 best prep pure hitter, #2 best prep power hitter and #2 best prep strike zone judgement.
http://tinyurl.com/l27ss
They went from 38-63 to 38-92.
They shouldn't be abandoned completely just yet (this season yes, but in general, not yet) - because they have a bunch of young 'uns on the farm that are about a year away from helping.
Izzy is not real popular here, but in theroy when he comes of the DL, he will replace Robles which is a great upgrade. I hope Navarro replaces Alomar, but even if he doesn't he goes to Triple A, Alomar is a definite upgrade over Jason Phillips. Drew being healthy even if you think he is being codeled seems to be on track to being more productive.
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