The Vegas strip just got more crowded with the official opening of the Roche Motel.

Nicely done, any ideas who else is floating this Chad pitching for the Dodgers this week.

Interestingly, the 51s announced a spot start for tomorrow, don't know if that means they are adjusting for Chad's potential call up.

Jon, be prepared for a correction from Nate re his LaRoche's OPS.

I have to convince my friends to go to a 51's game when I am in Vegas.

In his last 6 at bats between here and Jacksonville, Andy LaRoche is 6 for 6 with 3 home runs, a double and 6 RBI. 16 total bases in 6 at bats will do wonders for your slugging percentage.

I think Andy may be green with envy at Kemp getting called up to the big-league club and tearing it up.

I'm still waiting on Loney to show some power, though. I know he's young, but, really, 2 HR at Vegas? And he's now 22. Not bad by any means, and I don't want to sound like oldbear, but the disconnect between tools and performance remians.

WWSH

1 - You've been waiting a while to use that one, havnen't you? :)

Glad to see ALR's off to a good start, so to speak. Question - if he tears through AAA (moving from a pitcher's league to a hitter's league w/a hitter's park at home, while he's recently been on a hot streak, I wouldn't be overly surprised to see it happen)... Where does that put the Dodgers with respect to the Mueller/Guzman/Aybar/LaRoche situation going into next year, especially with Billy's contract?

Anybody else up for trying to pry something useful out of Sabean for Mueller, if there is anything in that depleted farm system?

LaRoche should be sent back to Vero to join what seems to be the recently founded Rally Killers Anonymous. His incipient rally-killing must be nipped in the bud.

Great news re: LaRoche, I'm glad he's getting the AAA opp now.

Re: Loney, he may still pick it up a notch with his power, or he may not. He could end up being a solid hitting, good fielding firstbaseman with occasional power, a la JT Snow. I'm not sure whether there's a disconnect, or just that the power expectations were unrealistic.

5- read my post in the other thread. Loney has babied because of his status as a 1st rounder and his tools. Meanwhile, the Dodgers decided to hold back Dunlap because he used to be overweight and didn't hit for enough power (even though his numbers were better than Loney's).

5 - Anybody know how Loney is at fielding? Maybe putting him at SS for a half-season (he's got a cannon, right?) and shopping him?

Or seeing how he takes to the mound?

6 Trade with the Giants? Sacrilege! ;-) And yeah, if they have a good prospect, why would they want to send them to the Dodgers?

Hey, is anyone in the bay area planning on going to any of the games in Oakland? If Billingsley is called up to pitch Friday I may try to go (can't go Sat or Sun anyway).

I think Loney's really built more for 1B than he is for middle infield. Dunno why one should muck with something that ain't broke (i.e., his defense at a position).

5-- "Hitting home runs" is not synonymous with "performance." Loney is batting .354. At age 22 in Triple A, THAT is performing. The hope entertained by many Dodger fans who post here that the Dodgers are going to have eight 30-40 HR hitters in their line-up really shouldn't be induged.

It'd be nice to have laroche at 3b next year.
On another note, i think the dodgers should send aybar somewhere in the offseason to learn to play ss.
We have kent at 2b thru 2007 (and an option for 2008) and furcal at ss thru 2008, so it'd be nice to have a choice of a free agent 2b or ss with aybar taking the other spot, instead of just aybar at 2b and having to get a ss when there might be a better 2b free agent available.
And for next year aybar can be the super utility infielder.
On another note i hope ned doesn't trade our top prospects, because i'm excited about the possibility of martin, nomar, kent, furcal, laroche, drew, kemp, and either guzman or ethier as our position players next year.
It looks like the dodgers are going to be the opposite of what they have been in the past for at least a couple years with good hitting and decent pitching, basically relying on offense more then pitching, because we have a ton of position prospects but only a few pitching prospects.

I am for trading away some veterans and getting more prospects. We clearly have depth to deal from the majors.

13 -- "indulged."

10- LOL. Loney is left handed and not exactly fleet footed. He'd probably have trouble playing the outfield.

Here's my post from the other. I'd like to see your opinion on the situation since you seem to be a big Loney backer and are also pretty have pretty good knowledge of the Dodgers farm system (though I think you are too optimistic)

James Loney's full season at Vero:
.276/.337/.400
Cory Dunlap at Vero:
.291/.382/.398

I realize that Loney was 2 years younger, but Dunlap displayed a very advanced approach, not only walking a lot, but also proving to be a good contact hitter. Loney was a bonus baby who has all the tools that scouts love and was more "projectable", so they promoted him to Jacksonville. In Jacksonville, Loney completely bombed, partly due to injuries, partly due to being completely overmatched. Last year, he repeated Jacksonville and had a nice season, showing a more patient approach, but still not hitting for much power. If Dunlap was built like Loney and was a 1st round pick, I guarantee you he would have started the season in AA.

9. Babied? Dunlap is strugglin in A ball, while Loney's hitting .350 in AAA. Im not sure what youre getting at there.

Loney at SS? He throws lefthanded.

navarro throws out a baserunner.

13- Yes, yes, 8 HOFers is what we want, and we'll take no less. Shall we explore the flip side of that coin?

i feel bad for loney, hes hitting 350+ and is second in the PCL in BA behind howie kendrick and people still want to move him to the mound or to another org. lol

10 -- Loney was considered by most other teams a pitcher; the Dodgers believed otherwise (I believe the acronym is IIRC).

7 -- How dare you besmirch Cory Snyder, pride of the Cougars?

14 By all accounts, Hu who already is the best defensive player in the system and has continued to hit in AA, is the shortstop who should be ready in 2008.

17. I think Dunlap is proving you wrong and the Dodgers right by stinking it up in Vero Beach. And two years is a pretty big deal, and his injury was a broken wrist, I dont know how you can gloss over those two things. Tools and projection matter, and comparing Dunlap and Loney proves why.

Mcpherson is finally starting to hit for the Angels. he is 3-3 tonight.

and theres no way in hell Dunalap is only 205lbs. He would have to have had fat surgery to lose all that weight so quickly.

Who compares favorably, might I add, to Mike Marshall, Torii Hunter, Jim Presley, and Mike Devereaux

Laroche is up again.

I am for trading away some veterans and getting more prospects. We clearly have depth to deal from the majors.

Thats what i'd like ned to do if possible, then flip those prospects with loney and a middle infield prospect like hu, abreu, dewitt for a good starting pitcher under our control for a couple years if possible.

mmm, that tasty Royal pitching

I'm hoping the Dodger rookies' performances make Ned a little more hesitant to trade any of the remaining elite prospects.
If nothing else, Ned knows all the hype he heard about the system was legit and he won't be trading any of them for average ML talent.

21 Corner infielders and outfielders who don't hit homers and pitchers who don't have a lot of strike outs are going to be dissed.

Loney and Guzman more than any other prospects (with Chad being a possible third) are going to be scruitinized more closely because they may be thought of receiving the famous Dodger hype.

It probably hurts them that they at one or another have been identified as one of the top prospects but ultimately did not dominate their leagues.

Now most scouting directors would be rewarded by signing another Mark Grace or Jeramaine Dye (two players that Loney and Guzman have compared to recently) but those comparisons will have to play out.

Anyways, be happy that the guys are doing well and sleep well with the Dodgers in first place.

24- please. Loney has done very little in his minor league career aside from 170 at bats at Great Falls the year he was drafted and one impressive spring training. Nothing he's done so far has convinced that he's going to be even an average first baseman offensively. At best, he looks like a late bloomer, but we can only keep him on the 40 man roster for so long before he is exposed to the rule 5 draft. Loney should be trade bait if Ned's looking to deal.

Hu who already is the best defensive player in the system and has continued to hit in AA, is the shortstop who should be ready in 2008.

I'm just not high on hu, i'd trade him for starting pitching, obviously with others.
Aybar just doesn't have enough pop for anywhere other than ss and 2b and catcher(not that i'm saying convert him to catcher).
But I'd like to hang on to aybar because he has some pop and i'd like to see him permantly at 2b or ss after kent/furcal leave.

22- Huh. Really? Is there a list, somewhere, of LDS ball players? I didn't know Dale Murphy was until you (or somebody else here) brought it up. [quick Google search]

And, there is:

http://morgannews.us/baseball.html

Jeff Kent? I didn't know that. I hated Jim Gott, too, but somehow I bet that one is okay by you.

17 -- "I realize that Loney was two years younger..." The problem is, you think that doesn't mean much, when in fact it means everything. The alpha and omega of statistical analysis of prospects is age versus level of competition. The performance numbers by themselves, separated from age considerations, are completely meaningless. Loney at age 19 outslugged Dunlap at 21 in Vero Beach, and slugging is not, nor ever will be, Loney's strong point. And why doesn't anybody think about defense? Loney at 19 in Vero Beach was a great defensive first baseman. Dunlap at 21 in Vero Beach was a brutal first baseman. People shouldn't be surprised that the Dodgers take things like that into consideration when making promotions.

34

you are high on him because he is not going to hit 20 homeruns a year.

arent

Loney I like, but with a grain of salt. .350 at Vegas doesn't give me a ton of information to process. Jason Grabowski hit .600 at Vegas.

If I was in Vegas and saw Santana pitching at night game at home against the Royals, I'd have to take those odds. However, next Sunday's day game against the Padres is another matter.

I have seen that list -- my favorite inclusion is Kyle Farnsworth.

you are high on him because he is not going to hit 20 homeruns a year

Neither is aybar, but i'm high on him.
I don't think hu will out obp or slg aybar.
Neither will hit 20 hr's, but aybar i believe will have more power and probably more obp.

Looking at Gott's numbers, he was pretty good, four of his five years in LA. I think I may have been confusing him with Kevin Gross, whom I hated very much.

good fielding firstbaseman with occasional power, a la JT Snow.

Comparing James Loney to JT Snow is not a valid comparison.
Snow hit 16, 8, 24,17,28,15,24,19 Homers in his first 8 seasons in the major leagues. I've yet to see Loney produce anywhere near those amounts of homers in the minors. Maybe the closest comp of a 1st basemen with no power but is good at fielding would be Doug McKientwicz. But Doug M isnt a usefull asset.

I'm not sure whether there's a disconnect, or just that the power expectations were unrealistic.

There's a disconnect in talent level relative to his draft position. He was drafted high. He isnt very good. The only thing keeping him on the 40 man roster is his signing bonus.

You're confusing each of them with Bobby Bonilla, who ate both in 1993.

42

Hu can win a gold glove at shortstop. Aybar can win a gold glove at..... okay he cant win a gold glove.

How were JT Snow's power numbers in the minors? (I'm genuinely curious, not sure.) I think you're being a bit harsh on Loney but may be right that he could ultimately prove a disappointment. He is also, as someone else pointed out here, still only 22. There are also a lot of players who were drafted high in recent time who aren't even playing anywhere anymore.

Hu can win a gold glove at shortstop. Aybar can win a gold glove at..... okay he cant win a gold glove.

To me its all about offensive production.
Labels like gold glove don't mean anything to me, i can't stand gold glove izturis.

34. I couldnt disagree more. I think Hu is only behind Billingsley, LaRoche, Elbert, and Miller among minor league prospects. He has great range, and has only made 3 errors this season. Thats a pretty good recipe for gold glove defense. This year he's started to take walks and has walked more than he's struckout, and he should hit for good average. He also has great intangibles to boot. I think he's the best Dodger prospect people dont hear about.

Hitting home runs" is not synonymous with "performance." Loney is batting .354. At age 22 in Triple A, THAT is performing.

Loney's playing in a hitters league. His ISOs are not good.
Hitting HRs is a standard of performance for a first basemen.

Put it like this. If Loney were to come up and play 1st base and hit for no power, that means the Dodgers would have to make up that power elsewhere. Finding middle infielders to hit for power is whole lot more expensive than finding a 1st basemen that can hit for power.

So from a financial perspective, Loney has to hit for power if he plays 1st base. If he doesnt, he's not helping club make the best use of its resources.

44

when Snow was in AA, he was 23yrs old and hit
.279/.371/.442 13hr

when Loney was in AA, he was 21yrs old and hit:
.284/.357/.419 11hr

Snow was in the Eastern League which isnt as touch of a hitters league as the Southern League.

51 -- ugh. You're not helping.

51 Thanks!

Btw, not to sound flippant, but I suddenly became bored with talk about James Loney and need to leave this conversation to go do some work. But y'all let me know how it turns out. ;-)

You know what is great, no matter if you agree or disagree, there are a lot of people on this board who know a lot about the prospects and baseball in general, this is a lot more of an intelligent discussion than trying to figure out if the Dodgers should trade half of Las Vegas for Willis.

44 -- When J.T. Snow was Loney's age, 22, he played in high A, two levels below where Loney is now. Snow hit .256/.318/.354 in high A. In other words, Snow was much less offensively productive than Loney in high A even though Loney played at the level three years younger than Snow. Stop bringing up J.T. Snow when talking about Loney. You guys really don't know what you are talking about.

izturis doubles with a slap down the third base line.

"The only thing keeping him on the 40 man roster is his signing bonus."

- and his .353 batting average.

Loney's production in LV would look like .284/.339/.400 in the majors. Thats not going to get it done at 1B, but he should improve as he gets older. Hitters generally peak power-wise in their late-20's, and Loney is a half-decade away from that.

JT Snow hit 13 HR in AA at age 23, and 15 HR in AAA at age 24. Loney hit 11 HR in AA at age 21. I dont see how you can discount the Snow comparison.

I like Hu. His plate discipline has improved a lot this year, though the XBH aren't there this year. He's also a good baserunner. Tony Abreu has also made strides in terms of plate discipline. These are types of things I'd like to see from Loney. Instead, I see a high average singles hitter (in a great hitter park) playing first base. He doesn't walk much, he doesn't strike out much, and he doesn't have much power period. While guys like Mark Grace and JT Snow were never big power hitters (Snow did have a few solid power year), both walked a lot. If Loney was drafted in the 5th round, we probably wouldn't be talking about him anymore than we do about Delwyn Young.

Same thing can be said for Xavier Paul. I thought he was going to be a very solid player. He has a strong arm, he had (not anymore) good plate discipline, some power potential, and above average speed. Now he'll be lucky if he ever makes it to the majors as a backup outfielder.

Tools and projection matter, and comparing Dunlap and Loney proves why.

No they dont. If a player has tools, then his statistics will provide the evidence of those tools.

I'm not sure why once a player is drafted, that scouting or projections even matter at all. Its all about performance at that point. I dont need to be told that player A can hit for power. I can see it in the stat sheet once he's in the organization if he has power. I dont need to hear Pitcher A has "great stuff", I can already tell those things by looking at his stats.

Scouting has its place when there's no evidence to be examined. But once a player is in the minor league system, all the evidence (performance) is already displayed.

Its great Loney can hit .350 worth of singles, rarely walk, and hit for minimal power. If he was a SS, maybe I'd get excited. But he plays 1st. He's a non prospect at this point.

55 So this is a positive Loney post?

Btw, I brought up JT Snow because several scouts had compared Loney to him - as a good fielding rangy firstbaseman with solid bat and not a ton of power (so they said) - which doesn't mean it's accurate or fair, but it also doesn't mean it was pulled out of one's uh.. yin yang. But I said I stopped caring back there and by gum I did.

Meanwhile, leave you with this from the Dodgers.com mailbag - enjoyed learning about Casey Hoorelbeke:

He's a 6-foot-8, 245-pound right-hander who went undrafted out of Lewis & Clark College and was signed at age 23 by legendary Southern California scout George Genovese. This is his third professional season and he's already 26. He went 9-3 with a 2.40 ERA at Class A Vero Beach last year, where he played against mostly younger players. This year at Double-A Jacksonville, he has been dominant (one earned run and 18 hits allowed in 38 innings, 0.24 ERA). His brother, Jesse, played in the Dodgers system from 2002-04 and his father, Peter Rivera, is the original lead singer, drummer and founder of the '60s rock band Rare Earth. (!)

Loney's PECOTA comparables (note that none of these really have high scores)

Adrian Gonzalez (#1 by far)
Nick Leach
Brian Schmitt
Jon Tucker
Alexander Romero

Some of the more interesting ones

Eric Chavez (#12)
Brooks Robinson (#15)
Cliff Floyd (#17)

All of this is going to be rendered moot by the bucketfuls of dirty greenbacks that are going to be dumped on Nomar's backdoor any day now and for the next five years.

this is a lot more of an intelligent discussion than trying to figure out if the Dodgers should trade half of Las Vegas for Willis.

Yes it is, and its a lot better website than dodgers.com where the likes of billynono, joe bfsplk, nedcollettifetish among others lie, shout, take others words out of context ect., its a cesspool of stupidity at dodgers.com.
Altho there are some people here that assume all i care about on offense is power, which is not true, what i care about is ops (which includes OBP and slg).

And definately no trading our future for willis or cabrera.

haahahahaha. how fitting. loney homers.

James Loney says hah

If Nomar keeps this up, Flanders will probably re-sign him. That means Loney waits or gets traded.

Nate just types faster than I do...

There are also a lot of players who were drafted high in recent time who aren't even playing anywhere anymore.

I agree 100%.
Thats why I'm wondering why some here are clinging to James Loney. Not everyone works out. Let him go. Maybe its the whole "Logan White could never make a bad pick" defense mechanism.

Or "The scouts could never be wrong" mechanism.

Maybe I'm harsh, but I've moved on to other players.

59 Scouting does matter in the minors to decide what to do with an underperformer. If an underperformer has bad scouting, I probably just drop him, if he has good scouting, I give him a few more chances.

Of course, there's no way a guy that hasn't actually done anything gets to touch the majors.

69

you are too harsh. I am only harsh on fat players. like Oh, Dallas and Mo Vaughn 2.0 lite.

I will trade some of our future for Cabrera.

67 There is no way I would have predicted how popular Nomar has become at Dodger Stadium, hitting .370 helps. Matt Kemp and Russ Martin are also becoming fan favorites.

60 -- 55 is a post pointing out that there is no way to compare Loney to J.T. Snow given given Snow's vastly inferior minor league offensive indicators at the age Loney is now.

I'm all for re-signing nomar if he stays healthy all year and doesn't cost more than 3 years annually at 10 million.
Its not the millions, its the length of the contract, i don't want any part of him past 3 years.

59. this is getting tiresome. According to scouts, Loney should hit for good average but has little present power and is a major league caliber 1B. All these things show up in the numbers. Scouts also give him good marks for his approach at the plate, and atheleticism and you dont get to AAA at age 22 without some of both. The scouts are, and have been for a while, exactly right on Loney. If your announcing to the world that Loney isnt going to be a big power hitter, youre 2 years too late.

Like Joey said, 1B is a power position. Loney doesn't hit for power and he doesn't walk much. He has great hands and an excellent arm, but his range is average. There's no point in converting him into a pitcher. Our best bet is to hope that some team out there overvalues him because of his high average and defensive ability. He won't be the center piece to a trade, but he still might a decent commodity.

Has Nomar ever been a free agent without the skepticism of a lingering injury where he could seek big bucks? If he keeps up his offensive production and stays relatively healthy this year, I could see him wanting to cash in big.

I like the Mark Grace comp. We should bench the JT Snow talk. All in favor. Say aye. The ayes have it.

If we get Cabrera we put him in the outfield now and leave LaRoche at third.

Navarro, Guzman, Ethier for Cabrera

Clayton Kershaw is going to be a beast. Lets talk about Clayton and Bryan Morris.

67 Exactly. All Ned talks about is Veteran leadership. It would not be a suprise to me if he extends Nomar a couple years before the end of the season. Look how quickly he extended Kent.

Nomar is from L.A., so i have a feeling he would go for a 3 year contract, and work with the dodgers after that on 1 year deals if its in the cards so to say.
Its just a feeling only tho.

71- what about the Bull? LOL

Some scouts consider Billingsley to be stocky.

Trade them for Scott Shields.

Kershaw, Miller, and Elbert we have to come up with a name for this group.

3LK?

81 -- Who is "Avery Morris?"

86

Avery is Bryan's first name. He goes by Bryan though.

Scouting does matter in the minors to decide what to do with an underperformer. If an underperformer has bad scouting, I probably just drop him, if he has good scouting, I give him a few more chances.

So basically the high draft picks get more chances. I understand that theory, although I disagree with it. I believe that once you're drafted, you're just another player. Draft position (or what scouts thought about you when you were 17/18), should have no bearing on the decision making process when you're 21/22.

85

sexy lefties.

89 - That works!

87 -- Good choice.

89 -- Bad choice.

What were Kershaw's supposed attitude problems? Is he supposed to be arrogant or a jerk?

Okay just for fun, I can only imagine what people would be saying if our prospects had these lines:
AB R H D T HR RBI BB K
72 9 18 3 0 3 11 4 9 .250/.289/.417
71 13 22 4 0 6 14 12 26 .310/.417/.620
86 11 22 3 0 5 8 2 28 .256/.273/.465

Okay so the middle is not so bad striking out a third of the time is not great.

You can assume this involves our Los Angeles cousins but I don't see any national cover stories on them anytime soon.

I'm so petty.

92

Kershaw doesnt have attitude problems. Scouts love his makeup. Kiker and Drabek had the "makeup" problems.

77. Loney's had taken 175 walks in 1604 career AB coming into 2006. I wouldnt say he doesn't walk much. At Loney's age, Ethier was in high-A and hit .313/.383/.442 with all of 7 homeruns in one of the best hitting leagues. Loney still has plenty of time to improve, just as Etheir did. Thats all we're saying.

80. Finally something interesting. I think Navarro and Guzman should make for a solid core of any trade package, assuming Guzman gets his act together when he goes back to Vegas. Throw Elbert and Abreu in, and I think that'll beat most other offers. Im not sure how much they would need Ethier.

Scouts also give him good marks for his approach at the plate

The stats say he doesnt K or BB much.
I could probably infer that he's swinging early in the count.
How would you get good marks for your approach with those types of issues?

89. i dont think so

91 Have you always been the Dodger Thoughts Jester?

strappin' lefties?

91 , 97

Homophobes!

96. and youd be wrong because youre obviously only looking at his numbers from this season. Loney walked plenty last year, and I know from watching Loney play in AA last year and in the majors this season and he doesnt swing early in the count. His approach is closer to Aybar's. If you looked at Aybar's walk numbers from last year you would say that he doesnt have good plate discipline as well.

94
That is good. I am excited about Kershaw. I dreamt we were going to draft him.

let me find a really article about kershaw written this winter.

sanchez- Ethier was an extremely patient college player, who became a bit more aggressive after he was drafted. I've seen Loney have some good at bats and some terrible at bats. His approach at the plate was nothing special. He's a talented defensive player, who probably would have been better off pitching. Loney has never had walk rates similar to those of Grace, Snow, Olerud, etc. If Loney hits for decent average in the majors (let's say .280), but doesn't walk and doesn't hit for power, he's a below average offensive 1B. How is he suddenly going to turn into a walk machine, when he has never been one in the past?

101- Aybar drew 69 walks in 372 at bats at Vero at age 19. Loney has never come close to displaying that kind of patience. The numbers don't back up your claims.

103. his mlb.com video is enough to get me excited.

Appropriately (given the Loney conversation), Groundhog Day is on t.v. right now.

104. Aybar took 40 walks last year in 401 ab's
Loney's taken 15 walks in 157 ab's

Aybar took a ton of walks in the FSL, in 2002. In 2002 Loney took 25 walks in 170 ab's and had a 624 SLG%.

98 - We should get him a hat with little jingly bells on it.

Eeeek.... Sorry for having possibly started the Loney talk. That was really just a passing comment on my part because of Andy's spectacular AAA debut.

WWSH

Miller is in now.

K-Rod wins the game for the Angels. Granted, it's the Royals, but I'll take it.

Meanwhile I come here and find out Kent is a Mormon. I would never have guessed. If he ever needs to visit Utah, he can stay at my house.

miller strikes out his first batter with a back door slider that froze the hitter.

We'll stock up on the jello for him.

96 -- You have no basis on which to "assume" how deep into counts Loney gets in Triple A. When Loney was in L.A., I saw Loney in a number of deep counts, and I only got to see a couple of games on TV in which he appeared. Not K'ing much is part of having a "good approach at the plate." Walking once every ten at AB's is not walking "a lot," but it is the standard you want to see met. When your batting average is over .350, you can have a good OBA without walking a single time frankly. Loney won't hit .350 in the majors, but one scout was quoted not long ago in Baseball Prospectus saying that Loney could be a .320 hitter in the majors. I really don't care how many home runs a .320 hitter hits. Put a .320 hitter in the #6 or #7 slot with your power hitters (guys like Kemp and LaRoche) in front and you are setting up a hell of an offense.

Re: 111

Does anyone have any firm news on the org's long-term plans for Miller? I remember reading an article somewhere that they may very well keep him in the pen, but I'd really hope we could have Miller start again. Same goes for Kuo, although the latter seems less likely.

WWSH

110- The problem with Loney as a topic is that everybody pretty much agrees. One side says he'll get on base a lot, hit for average, and never have all that much power. The other says, "So what?" Cannuck gets testy, J.T. Snow comes up. . .

111. how do you know this? are you listening to the radio broadcast?

I remember reading over the winter that Miller had scrapped the slider. Was that erroneous, or has he brought the pitch back?

116. Miller claimed he's building up his arm strength this season so he might be able to start next year.

118

just repeating what the announcer said :)

117 I think Loney will convert to Mormonism, go on a mission, and then give up baseball to have 10 kids and work as a CPA. How's that?

117 -- That will go down with Wayne's Choi post as the definitive review of the subject. Nicely boiled down to its essence

109 -- And don't forget the shoes with the little curlicue.

110. JT Snow always makes Dodger fans testy

Can someone find Kershaws total numbers from this year please. thanks.

I think Drew will get a J.D.

There has been a lot of talk of how J.D. Drew is swinging earlier in counts, well I checked the stats and he ranks tied for 20th in NL is pitches per plate appearance with a tick over 4 pitches per at bat. Rafael Furcal leads the Dodgers in that category while Nomar (who has historically not been one of the more patient hitters) sees an average of 3.16 pitches per at bat.

The kids are doing okay and since none of them have struck out a lot, they are showing some patience, Ethier and Martin are at 3.50 while Aybar, Kemp and Guzman (too small a sample at 19 at bats) are all over 3.7 pitches per at bat.

Loney hits the "cox communications" sign off the left center fence. lol.

107 - Great movie.

"I'm a god. I'm not the God... I don't think..."

here is that good Kershaw article.

http://tinyurl.com/pstby

Re: 117

Here's another way of looking at the issue:

How important is defense at 1B? Current conventional wisdom seems to be that it isn't all that important, hence teams stashing their rangeless slugging behemoths at 1B where they can do the least damage. That would seem to indicate that the value-added of having a good 1B is worth less than, say, at SS, where the difference between a bad and excellent fielder counts for much more.

Is that true? How much are good picks of subpar throws and diving stops of smashes down the line worth? How much are they worth compared to what a SS does? Has anyone actually tried to measure this sort of thing?

It's my impression that fielding stats measure put-outs compared to the league average at a position, but has someone tried to actually measure the inherent defensive value of each position? It's my impression that James' defensive spectrum was really more an anecdotal concept, although I may be wrong.

If the importance of defense at 1B is under-rated, I certainly would be less uncomfortable with a 1B like Loney who doesn't fit the stereotypical image of the MLB 1B who mashes home runs but can't play defense.

WWSH

Kershaw's stats courtesy of Baseball America:

W L ERA G SV IP H BB SO
9 0 0.46 9 0 46 12 22 109

Doesn't look a lot of competition. BTW if my math is correct, he only got 29 non-K outs in his outings.

131

those arent all his outings. He ended the season pitching something like 67 innings or something.

Re: 119

Thanks. Miller's shoulder problems were so unconventional that I honestly don't know how much I should worry about his health. If it was simply an issue of shaving down a bone, then presumably it might not be that serious.

WWSH

122 - We'd set you up at the right side of Jon's Dodger Thoughts throne (to be built in the 'pricey seats' section directly behind home plate at Dodger Stadium, circa 2012), and you could dance a merry little jig for all the high rollers!

... I think I'm putting way too much thought into this. =P

On another note, have you ever considered moonlighting over at FireJoeMorgan? They've picked up your 'love' of Plashcke, and I miss the old fiskings...

116 From Miller himself an a interview in May 2006 on BaseballAmerica.com

"My arm bounces back very well on this current program and I'm probably always going to be a pen guy from now on. I'm fine with that. Hey, I'm just happy to be talking about what's happening on the field and not answering questions about how my rehab is going."

Re: 135

Well, I guess Kershaw's now our main hope of having a stud lefty starter then.

WWSH

136

you are forgetting about Elbert.

[130 ] - A fair point to consider, I think. We've seen that conventional baseball wisdom can be... questioned, at the least.

What I would say, though, is that a lot of the value in having a good 1B is very dependent on how good your other infielders are. If you've got a bunch of guys with cannon arms that can put the ball right in your glove, a good-fielding 1B probably isn't adding much value over one that's weak defensively.

However, if you've got an infield filled with 2006 Rafael Furcals (he of the everpresent fear of a throwing error), a solid defensive 1B might add quite a bit more.

132 Kershaw, a 6-foot-4-inch, 215-pound senior left-handed pitcher, finished the season 13-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 139 strikeouts in 64 innings.

Looks he allowed some guys to hit the ball afterall.

136. dont forget about Elbert.

139

thanks i found that, i wanted to find out how many total walks though.

I cannot wait till our rotation is packed with power lefties.

137 - I vote we move Beimel into the starting rotation.

Takers?

139 - Who is this guy, Danny Almonte? Sheesh, just getting a hit off of him must have elicited a minor celebration in the dugout...

I think a first baseman like Loney is fine as long as he's batting somewhere other than 3, 4, 5 in the lineup and still only making ~$300K.

141 Let it go Nate, you'll soon have short-season stats to go over.

142. convert Kuo and Miller back to starting, move Elbert up to AA now so maybe he can be in the major some point next year, and of course Kershaw will rocket throught the farm system like Josh Beckett. They can all laugh at Odalis' lack of a pitch.

from rosenthals latest column

About a month ago, the Orioles rejected the Dodgers' offer of left-hander Odalis Perez for catcher Javy Lopez. The Orioles didn't want Perez or his contract, which guarantees him $7.25 million this season and $7.75 million next season, plus a $1.5 million buyout.

Lopez, earning $8.5 million this season in the final year of his contract, was not a fit for the Dodgers, who already have three catchers — Russell Martin, Sandy Alomar Jr. and the injured Dioner Navarro. Evidently, the Dodgers didn't care; they just wanted to get rid of Perez."

Miller with a damn good outing.

2ip 1h 0er 0bb 2k

23 pitches, 19 strikes. 4 groundball outs, 0 flyball outs.

"Evidently, the Dodgers didn't care; they just wanted to get rid of Perez."
- lol

Lopez could replace Saenz as our right handed power pinch hitter. Lopez can hit more then a fast ball, making him better than Olmaedo.

Nate: You must have heard the 51s announcer not really address the Chad rumor, I am sure we will know more about this tomorrow but I still think it is a little premature based on his pitch counts.

loneys 4-5 with a line drive to right field.

Yeah another at bat for LaRoche and I chance for him to raise his overall slugging pct. to over .500

All this arguing about Loney makes me miss arguing about Hee Seop Choi. Can we bring him back and argue about him some more?

Would the Yankees want Lofton or Cruz?

We are going to have to DFA Odalis.

148 - Ouch.

You know what else is painful?

I would have liked that trade, just to get rid of that contract for next season. Poor Odalis. :(

Why would the Orioles do that? Perez has another year on his contract for $9-10 million.

Ned- you make trades because they make sense for both sides. Offer Perez to Boston for Clement. That makes sense for both teams.

155 - Hee-Seop who?

Probably won't happen, but we really should have Broxton as a starter. I suppose he's being "groomed" to be a closer, but his value in possibly being a dominant starter should at least be allowed to play out. Wasn't he starting at AAA last year in the beginning of the season?

159 HEE SEOP CHOI, silly!!!!

By the way, Pilsung Korea! 6:30 AM! BEAT TOGO!

158 LHP in Fenway don't often work out well.

130- I think that's an interesting thing to consider, but it may not be relevent. Even if 1B defense is more intrinsically more important than SS (which, it seems like it could easily be, since so many plays involve the 1B; as Bob might note, minus the 1B all throws to first would end up in the dugout), that doesn't affect the scarcity of players able to play it about as well. James's spectrum (I'm almost sure about this, but could be wrong) doesn't address value of the defense by position, but rather the relative difficulty, which isn't the same. For the same reason that, even though health is more important than fun, aspirin is cheaper than cocaine.

How does Perez to Boston make sense? I know Clement is struggling, but Perez is bad in DS, he would be Erickson-bad or Nomo c.2004 bad in Fenway.

160 AA

160 He started some games at AA but was switched to closing.

158 I don't know, that sounds like if you take out your trash and hand it to your neighbor, who in exchange, hands you his trash bag. Then you walk back into your house with your neighbor's trash.

Clement and his 6.68 ERA and mechanical difficulties and injuries... I'd rather trade OP for DFA. ;-)

160. he hasnt started since the first half of last year in AA. he seems to like relieving more than starting, so it seems like he'll be relieving for the foreseeable future.

Would the Yankees want Lofton or Cruz?

You're on to what i'm thinking, well maybe or maybe not.
Sell high on our non-superstar veterans for prospects then flip them plus our prospects not in our future (well who i consider not in our future) for a good starting pitcher under our control for a couple years.
We are thin on starting pitching (unless tomko, seo, perez, turn you on).

168 You would think all pitchers would want to start at the beginning of their careers because of the paycheck.

169 I don't know what kind of prospects Lofton or Cruz are going to command.

158 I usually take most of what Rosenthal says with a grain of salt. I wish I had a better way to say it (more like Jon would), but let's not get on Ned for a trade that didn't and probably won't happen.

Hypothetical alert...

Aside from that, "who's to say" that Ned didn't have something else in the works if he did acquire Lopez?

Did the Colletti ballot-stuffers destroy Dodger Math? It was up an hour ago. . .

And the Yankees have what to offer when it comes to pitching? Scott Erickson?

They have a few pitchers who are untouchable (like Moose), a few others who are probably not going to be traded (like Wang) and a few we wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole.

Just an FYI for all of you getting to caught up in Loney's power numbers in the minor leagues. Jim Edmunds hit a total of 30 minor league home runs and never more then 9 in one season. Headed into 2006 he had over 300 major league home runs. This is just one example of players who develop power as they mature. I'm not a huge Loney fan but he is certainly young enough to develop into a solid 1st baseman. Not everyone has to become Ryan Howard to be usefull.

You can't give Nomar a 3 year deal in June. He needs to prove he can play the full season. This is still a man who ripped his groin leaving the batters box and who pulled his rib muscle taking batting practice. He has been great and healthy since but you don't hand out a 3/30 deal based on 60 games. JMO

161 - ... It was a joke. I'm fully aware of the full name of everybody's most/least (choose one) favorite 6'5" Korean 1B, of which I am sure there are many.

On another note, indeed, I will be rooting for S. Korea to at least advance out of their group and build on their astounding success from 2002. And if the US can't get out of group play as it seems they might not, I'd love for a Korea-Italy rematch with another Korean victory - it could very well incite riots, in both countries (different reasons, of course). =P

164- the AL is a much better league for soft tossers and pitchers with good offspeed pitches, which is what Odalis has become (though I'm sure if it's permanent). He has an excellent changeup (which Steve won't acknowledge). Clement has been terrible since Carl Crawford hit a line drive that struck Clement in the head. Both players could use a change of scenery. I'd rather see if we can get something out of a player like Clement than flat out release Odalis.

175 I agree about Nomar. Hopefully Ned feels the same way.

161

The Korea match starts at 6 am, not 6:30 am

173 I really don't know. My provider was doing some migration thing, but I wasn't scheduled to move yet. I can't access any part of the site, so I'm in wait and see mode.

177 You just had to work Carl Crawford into that post, didn't you? :)

Carl Crawford is tough, he hits line drives off pitchers heads and has a tat of a pitbull on his arm.

181- despite having a Carl Crawford fetish, that was not intentional :)

182 I already don't want to pitch to him.

A changeup isn't a pitch unless there's some other pitch to go with it.

175 Speaking of Edmonds, I've been wondering lately if Bill Stoneman does a poor job of identifying which players he keeps and which he lets walk.

Was it Stoneman or Bavasi that was the GM when that trade was made? On another tangental note, I really want to start a wiki type of thing somewhere with bios of the current (and eventually the past) GMs in the league. It always seems like a pain in the behind to find out simple things like when a GM was hired with out the wonderful tools that Bob has at his disposal.

177OP had an excellent change. Kind of hard to argue that he still has one. I would do your deal not that I'm a big believer in Clement but I'd rather take a chance on him then OP.

Tommy Lasorda has an excellent changeup too. It ends up over the wall a lot during batting practice.

188 does he still throw bp?

186
I thought it would make a great book to take a look at the different GM's and maybe use win shares or something to determine how their deals worked out during their reign. What your suggesting would be very usefull. I'm surprised that retrosheet doesn't give us each GM for each club and every transaction they were responsible for.

189 If you can still consider it "throwing".

(sorry, I just couldn't pass it up).

188 or were you jesting again?

188 - Or bouncing 3 times in the dirt when he attempts to throw the game's "First Pitch".

http://tinyurl.com/l3s9y
-laff-

190 I thought about doing something like that during the many Billy Beane threads (arguments) over at (B)BTF. While finding out when Beane took over as GM was relatively easy, it isn't one of those things that you can google and have it appear. A simple resume type thing with all the current GMs would be a better resource than we have now.

193 That was hilarious. Carl's was worse though b/c of the delivery. Plus, he is younger.

194 We need to get Jon on that right away. :)

196 Uh oh.. don't want to make more work for Jon!

I still think a wiki would work the best.

185- tell that to Jamie Moyer or David Wells (for the past few years)

Joel Hanrahan last 6 starts from 5/15.
IP/Hits/ER/B/K
6/4/0/4/3
5/8/3/3/5
7/2/1/2/6
5/4/2/4/10
6/1/0/5/8
7/3/0/3/5
36/22/6/21/37

3 out of six starts he hasn't allowed a run. His walk rate is what he needs to work on. He's currently in the top 5 in ERA and K's. While that may not be good enough to become a Dodger prospect I think some teams may have regretted not picking him when he was on waivers. He'd probably be pitching in the Royal rotation right now.

Regarding EE's idea of GM resumés, I thought I'd look at http://www.baseballjobs.net to see if they had past placements as part of their marketing pitch, but you have to be a member (at $4.17/month) to browse.

The Dodgers have a couple of part-time jobs available from mlb.com via monster.com:

http://tinyurl.com/fgdnu

Do a Google Search for "Baseball America Executive Database" and you'll find, at the very least, the hiring and firing dates of each G.M. When you combine that with the transactions section of Retrosheet, you can get an overview of a G.M's tenure.

Still no quotes but Henson seems to be convinced that Billingsley will pitch this week.

http://tinyurl.com/hb6dz

190 Just so no one goes out and reinvents the wheel, Mike Carminati (of Mike's Baseball Rants, see sidebar) has gone through and collected and scrubbed up a lot of that GM date information. The data didn't exist in one, clean place before.

I've seen some of it; I don't recall if that was on his blog, or internally at on the Toaster mailing list.

Jon, I was reading over a few old posts and I came across this one:
http://tinyurl.com/gzn9v

It appears as though Colletti was bluffing (on the Bradley issue). I expect him to trade Izturis before July 31st. Hopefully, he's one of the pieces to a deal for a good young starting pitcher.

I also heard that the reason why Furcal signed with the Dodgers instead of the Cubs is because the Cubs wanted to put a clause in his contract where they could void it if he got a 3rd DUI. That is a pretty insulting thing for the Cubs to do.

155
Choi update. The Red Sox weren't playing last night, so NESN showed the Pawtucket game instead. Choi played first, and had a typical Choi day at the plate, 0-2, 1 K, 3 BB, and he scored on Enrique Wilson's grand slam. When he batted, you could hear people in the crowd chanting "Hee. Seop. Choi." He's currently hitting .229/.385/.383.

Other then the walking that is a very unimpressive line for an ex major leaguer in AAA. Even the Grabowski's and Pickering's of the world dominate AAA when they return.

Re: 206

I wonder if Choi's confidence may be totally shot, and Lowell's strong play in Boston has blocked any hope of a quick return to the bigs.

WWSH

206.
Yeah, the walks aren't going to help him. The Sox already have a first baseman who walks a lot more than the average bear. Youkilis is hitting .319/.438/.505.

He's probably not getting any good pitches to hit. Choi usually hits better when he has players around him (such as in the #2 spot with Drew behind him last year).

.229/.385/.383. Having not seen any of his games and just looking at that line and whats in the Paw Sox lineup, I'd probably guess that Choi gets very few pitches to hit, and the opposing pitchers work around him most every game. I'm sure Choi's getting frustrated, but he still needs to just keep taking his walks. It'd be great to hit a few more homers, but if the pitchers wont throw any strikes then thats just the way it is.

Motivation might be a factor. Here's a guy that OPS'ed .824 as a starter, and has proven he can at least be a platoon player in the big leagues and he's playing AAA. Maybe he's lost his desire. If Dan Johnson were to go back to struggling or get hurt, or if Frank Thomas got hurt, it wouldnt suprise me to see Oakland pick him up.

209.
That could be some of it. The bottom of the Pawtucket's order isn't much to shout about. Last night Choi was hitting fifth, followed by Dustin Mohr, who's been the right-handed lesser version of Choi (.161/.338/.242).

Motivation might be a factor. Here's a guy that OPS'ed .824 as a starter, and has proven he can at least be a platoon player in the big leagues and he's playing AAA.

The announcers said pretty much exactly the same thing.

Re: 210

But this is AAA pitching we're talking about.

I dunno--I think this may be more of a motivation issue for Choi.

WWSH

Or he could just be washed up.

And 98% of DT posters could of been dead wrong, me included.

2007 Opening Day Lineup
Furcal SS
Eithier LF
Nomar 1B (Hopefully)
Drew RF
Kent 2B
Kemp CF
LaRoche 3B (No offense to Billy Ballgame)
Martin C