Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
The chart below isn't meant to draw any firm conclusions, but to add some information to the discussion of the Dodger starting pitching problems. It does nothing more than answer the question, "Of the total innings thrown by a team's starting pitchers, how many of those pitchers currently have ERAs below 4.75?"
For example, for the Dodgers, Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Aaron Sele and Chad Billingsley have ERAs as starting pitchers below 4.75. Their innings as starters add up to 231 2/3, which is 59 percent of the 392 2/3 innings thrown by Dodger starting pitching.
The 4.75 cutoff was chosen arbitrarily, to represent a figure below mediocrity but above incompetence (though these ERAs are not adjusted for park-effects). Basically, I wanted to know how many starting pitcher innings have been thrown by pitchers that, overall, have been bad.
Team | Starter Innings | Starter Innings Below 4.75 | Pct. |
---|---|---|---|
San Diego | 417 1/3 | 325 | 77.9 |
Cincinnati | 431 2/3 | 314 2/3 | 72.9 |
Atlanta | 413 | 275 2/3 | 66.7 |
New York | 407 1/3 | 279 1/3 | 68.6 |
San Francisco | 440 | 273 | 62.0 |
Colorado | 425 | 272 | 64.0 |
Houston | 419 2/3 | 259 | 59.6 |
Pittsburgh | 404 2/3 | 255 | 63.0 |
Arizona | 401 2/3 | 253 2/3 | 63.2 |
Florida | 382 | 250 1/3 | 65.5 |
St. Louis | 408 2/3 | 238 2/3 | 58.4 |
Milwaukee | 412 1/3 | 235 | 57.0 |
Los Angeles | 392 2/3 | 231 2/3 | 59.0 |
Washington | 417 | 220 1/3 | 52.8 |
Chicago | 373 | 130 2/3 | 35.0 |
Philadelphia | 393 2/3 | 93 | 23.6 |
Not surprisingly, pitcher-friendly San Diego ranks at the top of the charts - even with Jake Peavy clocking in off the charts at 4.81 - but check out such teams in hitter-friendly cities as Cincinnati and Colorado near the top. Considering that the Dodgers (along with Washington) play at a fairly friendly pitchers park, you can see how badly they compare to their rivals.
Basically, while every team could do better with its starting rotation, you're not wrong if you thought the Dodgers were suffering more than most.
But, woe is Philadelphia. Woe.
Thank you. I can come up with about 1/100th of the Shakespeare jokes that Ken can.
Hudson might be easier to get because his control is rather big.
Would a merger between the Dodgers and Padres require us to take Ted Leitner and Matt Vasgersian along too?
I do prefer my stadiums to not be named after cat and dog supplies chain stores, however.
They have never had to do it under the current regime and the last quotes I heard from their GM was that weren't sellers and they hope to have a solid rotation next year of Hampton/Hudson/Smoltz/Davies/James. Counting on Hampton coming backs seems pie in the sky and Hudson is no big deal these days and Smoltz will be really old. I think he's crazy not to deal Hudson or Smoltz if he gets a good offer. I think Smoltz on our team could be a difference maker in the playoffs.
What is scary about Jon's numbers is that Sele constitutes a good chunk of the good IP. While we can expect Billinglsy to at least beat the 4.75 we all know going forward that Sele won't so unless OP or Seo or he who can't be named step forward pitching is still going to be a problem. I'm still a believer that any or all of those 3 can turn it around but I'm starting to sound like a polyana given the performances. At some point I have to shut up and realize that they all suck but I haven't reached that point yet. I mean I wasn't expecting world beating performances just league average from Seo and that who can't be named but the fact that they can't even give us 4.50 work just leaves me shaking my head.
Why do both those names make me laugh.
If McCourt was to sell Dodger Stadium naming rights which company would you want the rights sold to? I'm partial to "Yahoo Stadium" or the "Blue Apple":)
I'd take Smoltz in a heartbeat. Not so sure on Hudson. I think my hope for Tomko and OP precolated to long and have now turned into bitterness.
Don't know if anyone else is getting fed-up with spending money and not getting the games you want to see, but saw this second article on the ridiculousness of the MLB blackout rules: http://tinyurl.com/h5p9p
9 They would stay the Dodgers, but they would actually have good pitching.
Which owner would they have? Hmmm...
I always get a little weirded out around this time in the season because teams start to decide if they're buyers or sellers....a simple losing streak could make any GM make a panic trade and I don't want that to happen to us. I guess I just find it bizarre that teams almost feel as if you can't trade until the week leading up to the deadline....I don't want any panic trades, but it'd be nice to get a pitcher in here ASAP so we don't have to sit through the agony of a Seo/Sele/Perez performance.
At the very least, though, they can jack up the price as the bidding war starts in July.
Ken Williams did bring in Freddy Garcia at around this time a few years back.
I think there are seven in the AL: Detroit, Chicago, Boston, Texas, Oakland, New York, and Toronto.
So I think there are 18 "buyers" and just 12 "sellers."
I'm no economist, but I think that the demand outstrips the supply.
Other than Maddux, who is out there? The pitching available this year is really thin.
All I know is that when Tomko/Sele/Seo pitches I'm in the fetal position for nine innings.
http://tinyurl.com/hntby
Do you think there is a chance, if the Dodgers were to fade during the next month or so, where we would be in the position of seller, unloading veterans like Nomar and Lofton to a club geared to "win now?"
The Dodgers didn't sell off anyone last year although that was in part because the NL West was so bad, it was hard to ever say that anyone was "out of it."
Welcome Josh!
And my opinion? No. I don't expect the Dodgers to fade enough in a tight division to start unloading, and particularly can't even conceive of a scenario that has them deal Nomar.
The Marlins have nobody (Willis ain't going nowhere), the Nats could trade Livan but probably won't, The Cubs have Maddux and I'm sure they'd trade Wood if anybody would be willing to take him, the Pirates have a few guys (Torres, Vogelsong, Perez) but none are really any good. The Devil Rays got nobody, nor do the Orioles or Royals. I doubt the Twins will trade Radke and Loshe is just as bad as OP and worse than Seo.
I'm wondering who gets sent down?
Like it or not, Lofton finishes the season in LA.
http://tinyurl.com/q79x7
Lots of quotes from different people including message boards (not sure where they dug those up from)
This one shows what a scumbag Boras is:
"Boras was never going to let him come back to L.A.," said a source familiar with the negotiations. "He had like seven prime free agents that winter, and he knew where he wanted everyone to go. If the Dodgers re-signed Adrian, they wouldn't have had the money to sign J.D. Drew, and Boras wanted Drew in L.A."
This is what I've been trying to say. Boras never let's his players give "hometown discounts" and always forces them to test free agency rather than exploring a contract extension before their season is over. I'm anxious to what's going to happen to Andruw Jones when he becomes a free agent.
The one thing I didn't like about the article:
Drew hasn't done much for the Dodgers, missing most of 2005 because of a sore knee and a broken wrist, but Beltre, despite some recent flashes at the plate, has been a disaster in Seattle.
This guy must have been expecting a ton out of Drew. I'm a little dissapointed with how Drew has performed this year (he's not walking as much), but he's still been an excellent player.
Who is Matt "Money" Smith and why is he an expert on the Dodgers?
Maybe Repko stays in Vegas for awhile, until the roster shakes itself out with an injury, a trade, an Ethier/Kemp dropoff...
He also does pregame for the Lakers on radio. If anything, he's more well-versed in hockey.
LOL....I'm still surprised that so many make excuses for Beltre's subpar play. It is so blatantly obvious, apparent, what have you that 2004 was just an anomaly. Is it because Beltre's is a nice, quiet unassuming guy that no one throws the steroid accusations his way? If there's ever a poster boy for someone that was enhanced, its him. Why cant those in the media just call it like they see it? 20,20,20,20,20,48,20....One of these doesnt fit.
Is this the outing of DodgerBlues guy?
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/283436.html
For the most part, it holds up.
I'm confused by this. Plenty have thrown the accusations his way. In fact, despite Beltre's denials, I can't think of too many players over the past two seasons who have been accused of steroid usage more than Beltre.
For what it's worth, I don't think fluke seasons were invented by the steroid era.
2001:
Bonds- 73HRs
Luis Gonzales-57HRS (career avg 24)
Rich Aurilia- 37HRs (career avg 19)
Paul Loduca- 25HRs (10,7,10,9 since)
I think baseball owes an apology to Jose Canseco. He was right.
As a followup to my original thought, I wonder if a trade of Nomar, though few see it happening, would be a good move for the Dodgers. I would argue that few here consider the Dodgers, with their current pitching staff, likely to make it deep into the playoffs. Considering Nomar's resurgence this season, coupled with his injury risk, unloading him now while his value is at its highest might buy us quality pitching prospects closer to the majors then Kershaw and Morris. Plus, given the depth of talent that could adequately fill first base in the years to come, a contract extenstion for Nomar that would be considerably more than the $6 million he took this year seems like a dubious investment.
Maybe the media just likes Beltre, but doesnt like the other potential steroid abusers. But so far I havent seen many media stories about Beltre's potential steroid usage, but I've seen numerous stories about Beltre's homesickness in Seattle. That doesnt sit well IMO.
I think attributing every fluke power season is as bad as associating crimes with people of one ethnic group.
There is a whole matrix of issues that are involved in the game of baseball. And if you think that one thing is responsible for them is a lazy way of thinking.
That is a very broad brush you've got there. Very broad.
And it's unlikely you're going to see things any other way, so I will drop this.
Short of giving Beltre the Bonds treatment, what do you want exactly? As much as you want there to be, there isn't proof of Beltre's steroid use. There's circumstancial evidence (changes in stats, in how far he hits the ball, in his weight), which has been reported endlessly. There hasn't been a month since May 2005 that has gone by without people wondering about Beltre and steroids.
I agree that there's no more evidence that change of scenery has had an effect on Beltre any more than possible steroid usage. As much as people want to dismiss one argument or the other, we have no conclusive evidence either way.
So what do you want?
If you contrast the coverage that Bonds, Sheffield, Giambi, even Sosa have gotten, against that of say Adrian Beltre, and Luis Gonzales then you'll see a difference.
Cash later admitting to corking his bat. But I think he corked his bat for almost his entire career, so it still doesn't make much sense.
Cash took that secret to his grave.
He is one of two players I remember who batted without a helmet. He and Bob Montgomery. They both used plastic liners inside their caps, which I believe were almost, but not quite, entirely useless.
56 Beltre laying off the slider low and away and not trying to pull everything were obvious in 2004, even to me, and I'm not that observant. Given that he was always strong enough to hit the ball out, does there have to be another reason?
And those names you mentioned all were guilty by the old method of "looking 'roided up". If anything Gonzo and Beltre look the same as they did pre-spike. Of course, we now know that bulking up doesn't necessarily correlate with steroids.
Of course, I don't remember seeing Mays until the 1970s.
He wore a helmet with the Mets:
http://tinyurl.com/pqevh
But not in this photo as a Giant:
http://tinyurl.com/mukjm
2) How does Raffy react when Izzy is put in as a late inning defensive replacement in a close game? ;-)
That being said, even the so-called media villains you cite got/get huge amounts of favorable coverage for long periods that did not discuss drug use. Look at coverage of Giambi today, for example. Look at coverage of Sheffield - it's almost all about whether his injury will heal, not about how big a user he might be.
As for Bonds, yeah, he got the book written about him and Beltre didn't. Until we get a book about Beltre, if you can't see a reason the coverage should be different, I guess we're at a stalemate.
Ultimately, I don't get the sense you're going to be satisfied unless the players you know took steroids are called steroid users in every story, regardless of proof.
Not by me, but I can't say the same for Willie Bloomquist.
Either way I'll give him a cheer when he comes up the 1st time and then that will be it. Most ex-dodgers that I liked for I root for but it is hard to root for an ex-dodger who has Boras as his agent. I wouldn't mind if I thought Boras did a good job for his clients but I don't see that, I see a guy who uses his clients every winter to get what he whats and his clients needs are secondary.
1. Which minor league starting pitching prospect is next in line to join the big club, and how far away would he reasonably be from being called up?
2. Is the decision to make Broxton a relief pitcher set in stone? I know there has been talk of making him our future closer. Is there a reason that he was never considered as a starting pitcher? I know he started in the minors quite a bit. Is there a durability issue? Or he doesn't throw a large enough variety of pitches?
vr, Xei
Maris won the MVP in both 60 and 61. For two years he was the best player in baseball next to his teammate. Which one was the fluke year?
Ask Depodesta, he moved him to the bullpen last summer.
It seems easier to replace Broxton in the bullpen than to find an effective starter.
The only other starter in the minors on the 40 man roster is D.J. Houlton, anyone else would have to be purchased from their club (Hanrahan for example) and then they would have to DFA someone. Even to bring up another starter would cause the Dodgers to DFA one of those four pitchers.
As far as Broxton goes, I have argued here that the Dodgers also have a problem in the bullpen and only Broxton, Baez and Saito have been fairly reliable this year. I don't think I've seen as many guys go up and down, Kuo and Carter have down and back, Beimel and Saito started in Vegas, Hamulack and Osoria may never see Dodger Stadium again. Maybe Miller will replace Beimel at some point. But that doesn't free up Broxton to start.
We'll get a good idea of how the Dodgers plan to address their roster problems when they activate Izzy but I don't think they will waive anyone, I see Mueller being put on the on the 60-day DL list.
Most likely Justin Orenduff, but he hasnt pitched in 3 weeks. Pitching prospect would be Greg Miller but that wouldn't be in the rotation.
took a pitch to the wrist/hand. so yea injuried.
Yeah, Monty wasn't the brightest bulb on the tree. I used to watch him bat helmetless a lot in the seventies, and the Sox announcers used to make a big deal of how he was the last guy to do it that way. I just shook my head that a teammate of Tony Conigliaro could be that stupid. Now he does the color on televised PawSox games.
jason johnson DFA.
didnt some people want him this offseason? Now's our chance!
I dont think Pettite wants to leave the state of Texas. I wouldnt mind him at all on a 2 yr deal. But he will probably get more then that.
You're probably right Nate, and with Houston losing Clemens next year, they'll go all out to sign an extension on him.
Just thinking aloud, what about Tony Armas Jr., last offseason someone mentioned him as a good idea, before the Bombko signing??
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/308324.html
When is his next start, anyway?
And I curse Prime Ticket again for not showing today's game.
Jason Johnson actually looks like a good guy to pick up for a few starts. DFA Carter and send down Kuo to make room on the 40 and 25.
Beltre should get booed mercilessly. He's a former Dodger star, just like Sheffield, Green, and Piazza. He must get booed!!!
I disagree.
The question is whether more rest between appearances would improve his performance.
I just emailed you for that info we were talking about, again thanks.
We can all hope that those stats in AAA were induced by the absence of R. Martin and the debut stats were jitters; wishfull thinking.
If I was at Dodger Stadium I would cheer Beltre the first time up. I blame Boras more than Beltre for leaving.
http://baseballanalysts.com/
He needs to refine his skills and starting will give him the innings he needs to develop them.
To me a fluke year is a year in which a lousy or average player has a year that is off the charts. Roger Maris was the best right fielder in the AL from 1960-62 and it was only injuries that ruined his career. The homers were a jump but when you slug 581 and then you slug 620 I don't see a fluke but that is just my opinion.
Re: Kuo - I like him, root for him, love his "stuff," but his lack of control is still a big problem. Perhaps starting in the minors would indeed be the way to correct it, but I'd rather him not be experimented with in the majors lest we have to sit through a bunch of Ishii-like games.
So basically, he hasnt had the experience really.
I really hope D'alessio signs. Hes the best defensive 1b in the SEC and he can mash (20+ homeruns this year).
FoxSports mused that he could go for Guzman and Broxton. Which could just be pulled out of the writer's.... ying yang. Zito, want him? And for who?
Yes, he needs repetition and the best way to get that is to start and hopefully in the minors.
I personally do actually. I like watching young players grow and develop.
Note that it looks like we stole Ethier from them already. That may be in the back of Beane's mind (you never know)
Raising suspicions that Aybar is being sent down to make room for Izzy. I don't suppose something like that could last too long - do we really mean to go for a long stretch with Martinez/Saenz at third? Aybar can be sent down "for free", but it still doesn't make a lot of sense to me if there's not a move in the works.
Izturis will play some 3rd base.
This according to the InsidetheDodgers blog.
The Colletti era is in full effect.
I cant even begin to describe how bad this move is.
Yuck.
How far away would he be from the majors, I wouldn't mind him putting pressure on Loney to perform 3 years from now when he has that security on the position, I've always thought that every major leaguer needs just a tad of competition to perform on non contract years. Am I making sense??, just getting ahead of myself
Perhaps it's the horns and pitchfork?
It all comes down to who you believe and in baseball that's gotta be pretty tricky. As much as I think I'd like it, sometimes I'm sure I couldn't make it.
I wonder about Izzy at 3rd since his arm strength was supposedly the worry (whether it was built up enough). But Kent at 3rd wouldn't work. Furcal at 3rd, since he has good range an d a good arm might make more sense, but that prolly won't happen.
I actually really miss Mueller now.
Bob, take it away!
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