Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Earlier this year, in my SI.com article on different systems for evaluating defense, I included John Dewan's Plus/Minus system, which is the centerpiece of his book, The Fielding Bible. Today, Dewan offered me a midseason update on some Dodger fielders.
To refresh or initiate your memory, the Plus/Minus system charts the distance, speed and type of every major league batted ball, computes how often each type of ball is converted into an out, then calculates how many plays that each individual player makes relative to the average glover.
"The most interesting Dodgers' angle that has come out of our early season look at the Plus/Minus system is that Nomar Garciaparra has gotten off to a good start defensively," Dewan said. "In his short time at first base, he's already a +6 thus far this season. This is not entirely surprising given that he's spent his career as an infielder, and primarily as a shortstop, the most important defensive position on the field."
Last year's major league leader at first base, Mark Teixeira, was +17 for the season. Carlos Delgado brought up the rear at -23.
"Nothing else on the team looks out of the norm (Kent -3, Lofton -1, for example)," Dewan added. "The No. 3 right fielder over the last three years in the plus/minus system is J.D. Drew (+25 from 2003-2005). He is off to a good start again at +9."
Drew achieved his +25 in 1,966 innings. By comparison, Ichiro Suzuki leads right fielders from 2003-2005 with a +48, but in 4,160 innings.
Dewan's information is proprietary, so I couldn't get numbers for the entire team. But since Willy Aybar has been in the news recently, I batted my little eyelashes to see if I could persuade Dewan to give me Aybar's fielding numbers for the year. Dewan took the bait.
"Aybar is +2 at third base in limited exposure," Dewan said. "Frankly, it's too small a sample size to make anything from this. But it's nice to know it's not -15 or something really bad."
Dewan said that in his short time with the Dodgers this year, Bill Mueller was -2 at third base.
Finally, many people are wondering about whether Rafael Furcal is a better defensive shortstop than Cesar Izturis. From 2003-2005, Furcal is +38 (3,790 innings) and Izturis is +33 (3,669 innings), thanks largely to Furcal picking up a +26 (1,306 innings) compared to Izturis' +4 (918 innings) in 2005. Basically, both are considered to be among the top fielding shortstops in baseball, which makes Furcal's run of errors this year either misleading or perplexing.
* * *
Vinny really tsks: Do you really want to be the guy that Vin Scully decides to sue? From CBS.
Los Angeles Dodgers announcer Vin Scully and his wife, Sandra, are suing a contractor, alleging their Thousand Oaks home was damaged because of shoddy work during construction of a second-story deck.
The civil action filed Tuesday in Los Angeles Superior Court alleges breach of contract, negligence, fraud and negligent misrepresentation on the part of Kevin Persons Inc., which does business under the name of Grounds Maintenance Services.
The Scullys are seeking unspecified compensatory and punitive damages. ...
The story goes on to describe the involvement of one Joe Kent. Not Jeff Kent, Joe Kent. That could have been really interesting.
* * *
Bob Smizik of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has caught on to former Dodger manager Jim Tracy's humility deficit.
For almost 40 years, dating to Danny Murtaugh, Pirates managers have been low-key men who were long on humility. The last thing they wanted was credit for success. That goes for Murtaugh, Bill Virdon, Chuck Tanner, Jim Leyland, Gene Lamont and Lloyd McClendon.
Almost to a man, they deflected praise. That's not Tracy's style.
When it was mentioned to him over the weekend that the Pirates were the only National League team to have the same five pitchers start every game, his answer was hardly of the "Aw shucks," variety.
"We've done a terrific job in that regard," he said. "A lot of that has to do with the way we've handled these pitchers."
That might be true, but did Tracy have to spell it out in such a self-promotional manner? Besides, it's not as if he has a history of injury-free rotations. In his five seasons as manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, he averaged 10 starters per season. ...
There's more - including Smizik's description of a Tracy "brain cramp" the same night Tracy sold out Pittsburgh shortstop Jack Wilson for not making a tough play.
* * *
I'm probably the only person who thinks this (and I'll probably get slammed for this) but I think we need another bat. I'd go after a LF...we could really use a nice power source in the middle of the lineup. I'm not advocating trading the farm or anything, just think we could use a nice HR threat in our lineup.
As for pitching, we all know that's the main need...the question is: what pitchers? I can't think of any outside of guys like Livan Hernandez, Maddux etc that'll be available. Willis and Smoltz are long shots....is Maddux really our best option out there?
http://tinyurl.com/gr89l
Photos 1-3: Architectural photos for Bob.
4: The street outside the stadium. The blue structure you see is the subway track.
5-9: Various pre-game views from different parts of the stadium.
10-14: Views from our seats.
15: The Bronx Bombers take the field.
16: "Old Friend" and former ROY Todd Hollandsworth crosses home after his 3-run HR off Mike Mussina gives the Tribe a 6-1 lead. In the not-so-old days, the blast would have garnered T-Hol "Game-winning RBI" honors.
All that stalking gone to waste, eh?
Vin has lived in the Valley for a while. I just missed being in the same school with one of his daughters (Chaminade Prep) by one year.
For the record, I hated that year of school more than any other year of my life.
something you need to vent about, Bob?
You don't want to go down that road. I don't want don't go down that road. Not unless we've got a therapist and a team of police sharpshooters handy.
Don't know about the former, but I'm pretty sure the latter is a given since the passing of the Patriot Act.
The way you wrote that reminded me of the Simpsons...when they'll say something normal then turn around and all of a sudden they're in shadow and talking about something serious....like when skinner talks about 'nam.
Furcal, SS
Lofton, CF
Garciaparra, 1B
Drew, RF
Kent, 2B
Saenz, 3B
Kemp, LF
Martin, C
Billingsley, P
Even though Kemp hasnt hit lefties in the majors, this year at jacksonville, he was hitting 329/427/632 against lefties in 76ABs
Grady just needs to maximize his assets at lf and 3b and play kemp everyday in cf.
Platoon saenz/aybar at 3b, which means get aybar back on the team, saenz hits lefties and aybar hits righties.
Platoon ethier/cruz in lf, ethier hits righties and cruz hits lefties.
This darn lofton stuff almost everyday is getting old. He's the one draining the power in the lineup.
Now don't get me wrong, i like grady, i think it has a lot to do with our former manager, grady definately is an upgrade.
And also, don't get me wrong, pitching is our problem not our offense.
But grady could help the team by maximizing his assets by putting the most power in the lineup.
Pretty much everyone is getting on base at a good pace, so sitting lofton and martinez in favor of more power will not hurt the overall obp.
What is there about Kemp that would suggest he would be a right-handed power hitter who can't hit lefties?
Aybar, for that matter, was over-derided for an inability to hit lefties. He had only 15 at-bats against them. He had one hit, but no strikeouts. Last year, he OPSed .732. I'm not saying Aybar can hit lefties like Saenz can, but it's a little early to call him a one-way hitter.
I'm tired of having the two worst hitters on the team getting the most PAs. Why does Grittle insist on putting Gaffy (and his paltry .330 OBP) in the leadoff spot?
Lofton OPS vs. righties: .817
Ethier OPS vs. righties: .845
With Lofton's basestealing thrown in, I'd call it about even. I'd give Ethier a defensive edge, as well as hope that he would improve. But playing Lofton against righties is not a major issue.
It is when you're talking about power.
Ethier 4 hrs 99 at bats.
Lofton ZERO hrs 158 at bats.
agreed, and while I don't dislike lofton per se, he is sapping power. But since there's a snowball's chance in hell of Grady actually not playing Lofton, I'd go after a legit LF. Although which one is a completely different question.
And i don't either.
I just think he should be used to steal a tying or winning run late in the game when the situation comes up.
He's a bench guy, nothing more.
Interestingly, one of the most atypical leadoff guys was Brian Downing, who after he became an outfielder, scored 90 runs, drove in 70 or so, had a lifetime OBP of .370, could not steal a base if it was right in front of him but he scored runs.
Pete Rose was not the classic leadoff guy either.
Lofton vs. righties: 158 AB, 12 BB, 0 HBP, 41 singles, four 2B, seven 3B, 0 HR, 12 SB-CS, 94 bases, 170 PA, .553 bases/PA
Ethier vs. righties: 99 AB, nine BB, 2 HBP, 19 singles, five 2B, one 3B, four HR, (-1) SB-CS, 58 bases, 110 PA, .527 bases/PA
Lofton is superior offensively, possibly inferior defensively. Again, not a major issue.
Washburn vs. LH batters this year - .316 BAA
vs. RH batters this year - .245 BAA
While this might seem like it would be a bad idea to have Saenz in the line-up, he's got a 1.184 OPS against Washburn in 29 career plate appearances.
Can anyone say, "Grandparents Day?!"
Seattle: 7
Dodgers: 6
It was a tough loss. The Dodgers batted around in the first inning taking a 4-1 lead after one. The Dodgers lead 4-3 after 5 innings. Billingsley was knocked out in the 5th. The Dodgers scored two more in the bottom of the 7th on Nomar's two run HR to take a 6-3 lead which remained the score heading to the 9th. Saito came in to close out the game and quickly gave up a run and had runners on 2nd and 3rd with two outs. Baez was brought in to bail Saito out only to have Jeremy Reed hit a surprising 3-run HR to give Seattle a 7-6 lead heading into the bottom of the 9th. Furcal lead off with a single in the 9th and Lofton bunted him over to 2nd only to have Nomar and Drew make outs to sadly end the game.
Go Dodgers! Hope the sim is wrong again!!
vr, Xei
What if your grandparents weren't wealthy?
I mean I really enjoyed the $400 check I got from my grandmother's estate.
Along those lines, my mother-in-law's mother took out a $1,000 life insurance policy some 30-40 years ago. Sadly, she passed away within this past year. This past week, my mother-in-law received the payout for the policy. The value? $1,013.
I only went to Chaminade for one, long, painful year in 9th grade, which was on the Chatsworth side.
Much different administration then. Probably no clerical types drowning stray cats in a barrel in 2000.
When my grandmother passed away in 2000, the Federal government got to save some money by not paying out her $13/month Spanish-American War veteran widow's benefit.
Apparently they have a good baseball team, now, too.
Break out the champagne!
I suppose the rampant anti-Semitism is gone too.
And the unique Catholic school style of justice of meting out physical punishment on everybody in a clas to find out if one person wrote graffiti on a bathroom wall.
The Puerto Rican God of Walks? (apologies to Uncle Miltie) say it isn't so.
wow, things really have changed. especially since 1) they're now in west hills, and 2) the student body is nearly 50% jewish.
Speaking of squirrels, one of the highlights of my recent trip to New York involved my encounters with black (yes, black) squirrels at the Westchester Community College parking lot (the site of the park and ride for the US Open golf tournament). We arrived at the lot around 7 in the morning, and I saw a little critter running around. It looked like a squirrel, except that it was black. Squirrels aren't black, I thought to myself. But if it wasn't a squirrel, what the heck was it? Well, I pondered the mystery until the afternoon, when (back at the lot) I once again espied the dark, mysterious rodent. So help me God: it looked like a black squirrel. I Googled "black squirrel" later that evening, and found this:
http://www.scarysquirrel.org/current/blackskwerls/
I haven't quite come to terms with the fact that I'm descended from Minskians. But I do like cold weather.
At a different time, my great-grandfather was a bootlegger during Prohibition. His usual method was to dress his three Jewish daughters into church-going clothes on Sunday and have them in the backseat while the liquor was in the trunk. The police didn't suspect a thing.
In my day (1979), Grades 7-9 were in Chatsworth and 10-12 were at West Hills.
I think there were just 3-4 Jewish students when I was there. Man, did they take some abuse. I hadn't been in a school since kindergarten where all the students weren't Catholic. It was somewhat shocking.
The school had some major changes in its administration after I left. The mass cat drowning episode sort of turned things around.
Bette Midler is fantastic in that.
Who has a friend in Pinsk,
Whose friend in Omsk
Has friend in Tomsk
With friend in Akmolinsk.
His friend in Alexandrovsk
Has friend in Petropavlovsk,
Whose friend somehow
Is solving now
The problem in Dnepropetrovsk.
-- Tom Lehrer
I have met five members or nominees of the Chaminade Alumni Athletic Hall of Fame.
Impressive! I didn't even know there was an Eagles HOF. The most interesting sports tidbit I know about the place is that Mark Gubicza (of the Royals/Angels/FSW) coaches the baseball team.
In my one year at Chaminade, the football team played its games on Saturday afternoons at the Chatsworth campus with about 200 bench seats available. They lost the league championship to Pater Noster High, which does not exist now (bonus points if you know what is on that site now).
Chaminade played in a really low level of football then back in the day when the CIF had "conferences."
As a prep sports stringer, I have found the Chaminade people to be much nicer than they were in the past.
I once covered a high school basketball tournament there and saw an undisciplined, but extraordinarily talented guard for Crossroads play there as a freshman.
That little boy grew up to be....
Baron Davis.
And that's the rest of the story.
Page two ....
I suppose "Wal-Mart" is always a good guess in these situations...
Of course I complained about skipping the Drays in 2004 when we played the east, but then Tampa dern near swept their games against our division foes.
The Dodgers are playing the Twins. The Rockies played the Jays.
Things are a little off because Texas plays Houston six times.
The fact that NL Central teams have to beat 5 other clubs for a playoff spot, while AL West teams only have to beat 3 is one of the many things about baseball's current structure that is just patently unfair. Granted, the extra team in the NL Central is the Pirates, but still.
When we play the Pirates at Dodger Stadium, Jim Tracy will put out his best possible lineup, with his worst hitter each day batting eighth. Scrappy guys sit. Bad news for us.
66 - A six-team AL East:
NY Yankees
NY Mets
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Nationals
would solve sooooo many of MLB's problems...
71 - I'm almost hesitant to link them to his myspace Nate. Almost.
72 - Still can't understand why so many people think that will be the WS matchup this year. Even the Dodgers have a better potential playoff rotation than the Cards!
We have a winner! You can see it off the 2 Freeway over on the east side of the freeway near the Fletcher Dr offramp.
Jason Marquis has given up 12 runs in 4 innings.
Of course as soon as I posted that over there he was pinch hit for by...Shane Victorino!
I like guys that OPS .851 in their first 200 MLB ABs.
Has nothing to do with being apart of a fan club. Just has everything to do with enjoying productive players.
Probably, but he'll still have far worse numbers than Valentin for the season.
Far worse.
http://www.myspace.com/salspals
definately going to join.
Actual ------- ........ Adjusted ------
SD 37-33 --- ........ LA 38-32 ---
LA 36-34 1.0 ........ SD 36-34 2.0
AZ 36-35 1.5 ........ Co 36-35 2.5
Co 36-35 1.5 ........ SF 35-36 3.5
SF 36-35 1.5 ........ AZ 34-37 4.5
(Hard to make columns line up on Toaster. All the dashes and dots are an effort to increase readability.)
He thinks that the Dodgers are probably the best team, but have also played the easiest schedule so far, by far.
Neither is Bill Mueller.
I miss having fun things to do.
His stats say he is.
Thats all that matters.
Interesting that Aybar is doing ok at 3B according to the The Fielding Bible. I'm not surprised about JD Drew either. He really gets outstanding reads on flyballs. That is the guy Kemp should be working with on his defense, not K Loft. Rate2 is a decent fielding statistic (a lot better than fielding %), but it has its flaws. You know something's wrong when it has Kent rated as the best defensive 2B in baseball. The Fielding Bible has Carl Crawford rated as the best defensive LF in baseball and it's not even close.
Let us see what his stats say after 600 ABs, 1000 ABs, 5000 ABs (if he ever gets there)...
Sal Fasano on myspace. That's hilarious. I foresee hours of wasted time in my future, trying to find marginal big leaguers (and favorite minor leaguers) on there.
That alone justifies the existence of my myspace account. Not to mention the opportunity to put the pictures of me wearing my dodger wig. :)
I don't see why people throw Aybar under the bus when he has a slump. Every player has slumps. Aybar just happens to be a young player, who doesn't get the leash a veteran does.
Also, Kenny Lofotn is not our problem. Rafael Furcal and Ramon Martinez and pitchers not named Penny/Lowe.
You didn't. I did.
Add are to the end of that.
As long as R-Mart 2.0 (russell martin is R-Mart 1.0) is OPSing .834, I have no problem with him playing. When he stops playing over his head, I expect Grittle to bench him. For who? Even I don't know the answer to that.
You want to bring up Ron Cey or Jeff Hamilton up next.
Geez, a little jab in the ribs and everyone gets butt heart. That Wily Aybar must be a real loveable guy....
There was only one problem. As Randa, Damon and Sweeney dazzled the Royals with myriad skills, the organization branded Fasano an excellent minor league player who would never amount to much. Fasano gained the reputation as a full-moon carouser, and it was well-deserved. Every night after games, Fasano would drink a case of beer and a fifth of Southern Comfort. Every night.
"There aren't many places to go in minor league towns," says Fasano. "So I'd be sitting around a bar, talking to people, and all of a sudden I'd look up and see it was 2 o'clock and I'd downed 30 beers."
I'm guessing you are/were a big Rod Beck fan too.
I hope I don't have butt heart. That sounds terrible.
I think you are very confused about what I was saying. I said R-Mart 2.0 (aka Ramon Martinez) is playing over his head and I don't mind him playing instead of Aybar until he comes back to earth.
I only mentioned R-Mart 1.0 (Russell Martin) to delineate him from R-Mart 2.0.
I can only serve one master at a time. And I didn't know Reyes was going for the cycle until he got up.
wait, is the game on kcal or espn? or both?
Actually Kemp seems to walk a tidbit more than the Atlanta youngster.
Your skepticism of all things Dodger Farm system is not refreshing :)
But DTV has the D's game on so OK.
Especially cool since the fourth post is about the history of hitting for the cycle.
Exactly, i live out of california so i only get to watch the dodgers when they are on espn or when they play atlanta or the cubs because those 2 teams have their own channels on cable.
But anyways every time the dodgers are on espn the first game never ends on time.
They should schedule the doubleheaders where there is a 1 hour break in between, in case of extra innings or just a long game.
i know, i'm confused. i told steevo the tivo to record the kcal feed so as to not miss chadwick tonight. i hope it's not blacked out.. :/
It just kind of scary that the Dodgers seem to have their future vested on a large number of prospects..
LaRoche is down, for a while...
Joel Guzman looks average...
Billngsley, is a nice player, but I do not see the #1 stuff people are ranting and raving about...
Matt Kemp has a hell of an upside, but if he is here to stay, we got to be patient.
Russel Martin, my favorite out of all of them...
Andre Ethier, a good #4 outfielder for the future.
I just hope this is not a ploy by Dodgers brass and P.R. department to keep the payroll down with cheaply priced rookies.
Bottom line, we are not winning ANYTHING with 90% of our hopes riding on a group of rookies for the next 2 to 3 years. This is 2006, not 1976. Cey-Garvey-Lopes-Russell, is dead and ain't happening again.
Hell, what did Mondesi, Karros, and Piazza produce for use?
I guess mlb players just drop out of the sky or something.
Aybar's a career .851 OPS player.
Its one thing to rip a guy having a career season (like Ramon Martinez, he has a career of failure that makes it seem like this year is out of whack).
However, the rooks have no history of failing, so its useless to label them failures until they've had some evidence that would show them to be failing.
Saying Aybar isnt an .800 OPS player (when he is), is about as asinine as people complaining that Kemp doesnt hit enough singles.
Lofton, Mueller, and the gang are not the type of free agents we need.
For example, there is no #1 starter out there right now, but one comes available via free agency, the Dodgers need to pursue him. A true #1, Penny, Lowe, Bills, and somone else is a NICE pitching staff..
We need one more bat.... The Kent contract extension still makes me sick, we could have used that money for a legit bat, not some slightly above average stick..
I am pissed I guess, I look at New York and their teams and look at the patched up bucket we put on the field...
Why don't we have players like Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, etc... mixed in with our youth? If we did, we would be kicking ass...
New York has a 200 million dollar payroll.
I guess I am a bitter Dodger fan these days...
2BBs
Rocket that Saenz snared.
Then Sexson just missed a 3run HR.
Following on gamecast here. what does chad's fastball top out at?
my english professors are rolling in their graves...
In the san diego game, he was consistently 93-96. he doesnt have his best fb today yet.
no kidding, nate. on a positive note, i am pumped about getting a fernando bobblehead friday!
thanks Johnson for the FB update.
How come Furcal plays SS? That seems strange given his defensive profile...
But having to come up now I think I've heard more than once that he will walk as many as he strikes out.
Or any worse spelled?
The list:
1) Kemp swings too quickly
2) Billingsley is too wild
3) Willie Aybar is not good
4) Rafael Furcal is a character out of "The Omen"
5) Kenny Lofton killed someone's dog
This is just uninteligible (we need a spell check in here) discussion..
40 pitches, does he make it past the 5th?
Billingsley has been extremely shaky
Another reason why i think we will go nowhere in the playoffs because we have penny and lowe and nothing else for starting pitching.
Now don't get me wrong, billingsley will grow into a good pitcher.
Also don't get me wrong, i'm not advocating trading the future away for a starting pitcher or more.
I think the end result will be the same whether or not we acquire 1 starting pitcher, and that is if we win the division we will go nowhere in the playoffs, we need more than just 1 starting pitcher to win a championship this year.
Just my opinion.
I'd rather save our prospects and become a consistant playoff team then trade our prospects for a chance at 1 championship this year and then fall off the map.
Did you spell Aybar's first name the wrong way on purpose just to go along with today's crowd?
You should be above peer pressure by now, Bob.
Probably not a lot of fun. But it will sure be a lot less annoying.
1) You have the World Cup where you live and die on seemingly each play and hope that your team doesn't screw up because if it does, that could be it and there's no tomorrow
2) Baseball unfolds over a long period time and I like the ups and downs. It's good. It's bad. There's usually a tomorrow.
The two events exist as counterpoints to each other. It's a nice rhythm for me.
I find that ad to transcend stupidity.
Martin is a real grinder. Is he not the heart and soul of this team (pending Kent's approval)
I resent those commercials for stealing a cool effect from "Waking Life" and the upcoming "A Scanner Darkly."
That's quite an honor.
Well, the lineup on the Inside the Dodgers blog always lists Garciaparra as "Nomar."
I don't think you can compare Ichiro's name to the nickname "The Babe."
Newspapers called Babe Ruth "Ruth" most of the time when he played.
Ichiro pretty much demanded that he be called Ichiro when he was in Japan. And the fact that he was endorsing a car company that was not called Suzuki was one factor.
It's listed as Garciaparra for today's game.
Interesting. What car company was he promoting?
I don't remember so I left it out deliberately.
Suzuki is one of the most common surnames in Japan as well.
No kidding. 2004 was all about money.
And bone spurs.
And steroids/HGH.
Well right now, his fb velocity isn't swing and miss velocity. That could be one reason.
Ask Brad Penny. What do we know?
1) Septic systems
2) Feminine hygiene products
3) Murder for hire syndicates
That was Martin's fault, not Kent's.
good eye nate. maybe we can get you to start at 3B ;)
I've looked around and I don't think there's ever been more than 3 teams tied with the same record this late.
In the early 1970s, the AL East had all six teams within a game or two of each other around this time.
I think the Seattle broadcasters said that Beltre went when Martin made the throw. Even if Kent had thrown back to home plate, I doubt he would have gotten the out at home plate.
WWSH
And I thought you would eventually spell "Willy" correctly.
We were both wrong.
That looked like a foul ball to me ..
It did hit the pole. Just barely.
That ball was fair by a matter of inches.
Because you want your best hitter to be able to bat with men on base.
WWSH
okay, just checking. that offends my common sense, but what do i know?
I get that, but who on our team regularly gets on base? Not lofton or furcal. Maybe martin? but who would leadoff with their catcher? (See: jason kendall) ;)
In the dugout, Little was talking to Martin about the play and Martin looked like he was admitting his error.
Martin is the guy with the whole play in front of him.
You can't make EVERYTHING Jeff Kent's fault.
I personally know that he wasn't responsible for leaking A-bomb secrets to the Soviets.
If the ball Johjima hit hadn't hit the pole, there is no doubt that Kemp would have come runnning in screaming about it.
I beg to differ.
"Please, please, let me differ"
1. Martin C
2. Nomar 1B or Drew RF
3. Nomar 1B or Drew RF
4. Kent 2B
5. Kemp CF
6. Furcal SS
7. Ethier/Cruz LF (if Cruz plays bat him ahead of Furcal)
8. Izturis 3B (we need to play him to boost his trade value)
fair enough. and .330 isn't awful for furcal, either. just wondering out loud.
Not all received baseball wisdom is dumb.
Of course it matters if the bases are empty. If you're always having your best hitter bat with the pitcher and a no. 8 slap-hitter with a low OBP ahead of them, you reduce the number of RBI opportunities. The no. 1 and 2 hitters should be guys with high OBPs, but low slugging percentages. They can't get themselves home, so let the hitters with high slugging numbers bring them home.
WWSH
Scully seems to hold it against Billingsley that batters foul a lot of his pitches off. Is that a fatal flaw?
Ever since pitch counts became the controlling stat for pitchers, there seems to be a premium put on groundball pitchers who don't need three pitches minimum to get a guy out.
He was hacking at high fastballs, inside curves, and low and away sliders in that at bat.
First impressions for far of Billingsley: Good curve ball, but doesnt have a dominating fastball. He doesnt look to be a dominant #1 type at this point of his career. Certainly isnt at a Liriano, Peavy, Willis level when those 3 came up.
Did you read Jon's post? Vin Scully, one of the most gentle human beings on the planet, is suing a man named Kent.
Moral of the story: Never trust anyone named Kent. Not even Clark Kent.
If the Dodgers had thought it was foul, they would have been screaming at anyone who would listen.
What's the point?
It's not like I'm going to be filing a writ of certiorari to have the call changed.
There's a multiplicity of viewpoints here, so this tease that you're some kind of martyr for having your point of view is off-target, and the repetition is making it worse.
Billingsley is certainly a better pitching prospect now Peavy and Willis when they came up, but not Liriano. Peavy didn't do a hell of a lot when he debuted, and Willis' funky delivery has always compensated for very average stuff across the board.
As long as we get at least 5 innings and stay in the game, that's fine.
It is interesting that your folks here can be insulted just because someone disagrees with their viewpoint and can keep ongoing jokes about other foolish subjet matters.
I love the site and will continue reading it, but I guess the comment board is not for me.
Thanks for the fun and great blog.
KC
Billingley clearly didn't have his best velocity or control today but he kept us in the game. He battled, only giving up 2 runs in 5 innings. Tomko would have been blown out of the water with 3 homeruns already.
Kemp cf.
Ethier/cruz lf.
Saenz/aybar 3b.
Also drop furcal to the bottom of the lineup.
Really.
If Bills doesn't get the walks under control, he WILL get burned.
That being said, not a bad two starts at all for someone of his age. I expect him to go through his share of bad spells, but I don't see any reason to think he won't be the real deal.
WWSH
I somehow don't think Giants fans hope that as well.
Most people are not insulted by being disagreed with. They're insulted by being insulted. There's plenty of room for jokes here, but mocking fellow commenters just does not translate well online. I've yet to find a site that benefits from it.
Let's hope it lasts. Jackson had that too, but unaccountably lost it.
WWSH
That has everything to do with why I care so much.
I want the Giants to go down in history as making a worse trade than D4P.
GO KENT!
WWSH
it really is too bad that Olmedo can't play every day...it'd be very nice to see his name penciled on that lineup card every night...
At the very least, his power is clearly gone.
So I guess I am going to be seeing Kemp at the Tucson Convention Center for those Trekkie conventions.
Dave Jauss is a craftsman with that thing.
well that's what we hope...if he really is going to keep the job I might have to start drinking bleach.
well that's what we hope...if he really is going to keep the job I might have to start drinking bleach.
Until Little decides to shake up the lineup ... ?
What's his best trick?
I have no idea. I don't know the names of anything but he competes in the world championships and stuff. One insane thing he does is juggler like six rings, throw one behind his head, kick it back up into the rotation with his heel without missing a beat. I didn't even know that was possible.
Defending Billingsley by comparing him to Tomko.
Ouch.
Not that I dont agree. But Billingsley was labeled the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. Just being better than Tomko...I expect more.
Fur-kel + Pitcher With A Pulse = 40 million down the chute
Let's just say Rafael has had better nights in his career.
But he's been fielding well today! He made a nice play on a line drive to keep the Mariners from a big inning.
"Free" "Agent" "Bust!"
WWSH
I can't count all the errors
Glove made of iron
Overrated Shortstop Man
Fat Tub Of Goo Soon
Great double switch by Grits.
WWSH
Overrated Shortstop Man
Trade Him For Good Stuff
Your anemic bat and all
At last, some defense
Why have you started to suck?
Hit the rookie wall
Can not throw a first pitch strike
No first ball swinging
how many days has he rested (I'm wondering)
Oh well, no harm, no foul.
WWSH
3 rockets. No runs scored.
He probly planned it that way
Me? I had no doubt
Feeling positive having not seen a live Dodger game since Bills last start.
or he probably lost it in the white shirts
Has a plane or bus to catch
Against Mateo?
Nausea for all fans watching
Three words: DFA
It is possible, that BA is wrong on players.
Team patience or lack thereof
Sure to upset Jon
0-2 0-2.....
A GW HR by Izturis will have to do
To Jeremy Reed is Grab
Owski principle
Danys Baez ties up game
With average stuff
Really really really sucks
He really blows too
Detonating our rare lead
Bunch of arsonists
But save opp goes away
Now we face another Baez meltdown
Adrian Beltre, apparently, really WOULD play better if he was still at Dodger staidum.
DFA half the roster.
Seo, Tomko, Baez, Perez (he should get one more start)
Coming up with the big hits
Facing Baez helps
Whose batters all turned into Manny
A charge at the plate
Russell's tag was too late
And Ichiro scored on his fanny.
Baez is ungodly awful
Kiss this game goodbye
The Dodgers need to install a guillotine at Dodger Stadium. Baez is first in line.
But why did Grits leave him in for another inning, when Baez had given up like 3 rockets in the 7th?
If you get 1 shut out inning out of Baez, count your lucky stars. Do not press your luck with another inning.
Knee high pants= bad control. Pants down at the ankles= good control.
I advocated the repatriation of Baez long ago.
Guillotine? No, Guantanamo would be more appropriate.
That haiku's middle line is so good, the syllables go up to 8!
I hate to think what will happen to the Dodger Thoughts group if the Pirates win that game in some comeback fashion.
Like on a 3-run pinch homer by Jeromy Burnitz off of Danys Baez. Then in the bottom of the 9th, Tracy will make a series of increasingly more clever pitching changes and the game will end with Kemp fishing at a pitch in the dirt from Matt Capps.
There was a lot of pressure on those compositions, Bob! I had a better success rate than Danys Baez, in any case.
Poetic justice
When pitcher after Baez
Lets his runners score
Or watching this game.
Saito (that's all I can think of)
I only noticed because you said it was wrong.
I haven't read anything to the effect, but will Izzy be making some starts at SS? It's not like Furry should be untouchable. The team announced Izzy's start tomorrow in advance to let other teams get scouts to the game, right?
468. That would be a good start.
My scenario in 465 is my version of "An Inconvenient Truth".
Argh!!!
Brain explodes
Incidentally,
Furcal tonight: 0-4 with 2 K
Izturis tonight: 1-1
Yeah. Apparently he left Pedro Martinez in too long once.
Furcals nickname should be
"Iron glove Feather bat"
Would the Mariners like to swap Rafael's?
Baez is a "proven" bust.
Who is the best leadoff hitter in baseball?
The choices:
Johnny Damon
Ichiro
Jimmy Rollins
Something doesn't look right here
Who would you start your team with
Ichiro
Pujols
Jeter
Why would you start a team with Derek Jeter?
On the drive down from Anchorage yesterday I was able to pick up a Mariner broadcast of the game; on the down side, though, it was another Dodger loss.
O.K. back to fishing.
I remember Colletti being interviewed during an ESPN game about a month ago. I think he was expecting more from Baez that what he's gotten.
Maybe if the Bull struggles some more in the pen, they'll do the right thing and make him a starter. I think he's got better stuff than Billingsley.
The weather here is actually in the 60s and most of the fishing is for halibut and salmon.
Excellent use of the term "reasonable." I was going to disagree, but then realized that the only reasonable expectations were non-existent. Q.E.D.
Billingsley doesn't have the luxury of rearing back and throwing for only an inning or two. When Broxton was starting, his velocity wasn't mid 90s like it is coming out of the pen.
Nobody considered third base until it became clear that Bill Mueller might not return from knee surgery this year, or ever
interesting developments on the mueller front. Too bad Laroche had to dive for that groundball.
Nobody considered third base until it became clear that Bill Mueller might not return from knee surgery this year, or ever.
They were talking about izturis, but zero in on the words or ever about mueller.
Ned will be operating with a heavy heart for the rest of the season.
Tomko hit a foul ball off his foot in BP so Lowe is going to pitch tomorrow. Maybe we won't be swept.
A tiny 8 seconds.
LOL....Sure.
Coincidence that in the midst of a losing streak, Tomko's been set back twice.
This week he's pushed back for Lowe.
At least the Dodgers are trying.
Going up against King Felix may be a challenge though.
You gotta not walk people
They made good contact"
-Baez
Good pitches are not normally hit out of the ball park. His problem has not been about walking people this year, it's been about throwing too many strikes. Has he ever heard of wasting a pitch with an 0-2 count? It seems like he's given up a lot of hits on 0-2 (at least 2 of them tonight, including the home run and maybe the 2 run double to Beltre also)
And I cant really put this on Gritts either. Who else is he supposed to bring in? Broxton has been great at times, and downright horrible too. Baez has been servicable at times and absolutely atrocious at other times. Gritts brought in the right relievers in the correct order, and they just kept serving it up.
This was one of the more depressing games I've attended at Dodger stadium. Not only because we lost, but because the better players let them down. Broxton blowing huevos, Kemp looking completely lost out there. Also, while I do think that Izturis' bat is a drain on the team, it was a lot of fun watching him play short.
Baez lost this one, both figuratively and literally.
Kemp looking completely lost out there.
You must mean in the field. He did boot some grounders. At the plate he reached base 3 of 4 times.
In his debut, he maintained a fastball from 93-96 mph. Wednesday, the Dodger Stadium radar gun had him from 87-92 mph.
552 I'm not pinning this ALL on Broxton. Yeah he only gave uo two runs, but he couldnt get a single guy out and Baez was brought in with 2 on and 0 out. Very few pitchers will get out of that unscathed.
Both pitched horrible. I just think Baez catches way too much flack on here. Is he a great pitcher? No. But hes at least servicable, if used in the right way, and theres no way that anyone can fully pin this loss on him.
Hmm. Maybe I'll call my cable provider/extortionist tomorrow and ask.
July 6, 2006 at Citizens Bank Park will be huge. We are planning the biggest Sal's Pals night of the season. Our goal is to have all 502 seats in section 307 at the Bank filled with "stached" Phillies phans.
The game is a 7:05 game vs. the San Diego Padres. We suggest purchasing tickets in section 307 or in another section and just relocate once inside.
I wish I lived close to Philly :(
Equating Baez and Broxton as if they are on the same level seems pretty absurd, but if there's stats to back this up I'll listen.
558- Who's equating them? Beyond saying they each had crummy nights. Or are you saying they didn't both have crummy nights?
Thats how you use him. Hes your back-up middle-reliever who should really only pitch with a lead and should really only start innings. But when the rest of the bullpen has been so horrible, what other choices did Gritts have?
560 I agree. Anyone who was expecting that kind of year out of baez is of course disapointed. I find that a little ironic since so many criticized the move when it happened, proclaiming baez was overrated, to only completely snap Baez's head off when he pitches the way they expect him too.
I really only expected Baez to be a decent, servicable reliever. And, for the most part, thats what hes been. A few horrible outings (tonight, @SD), but otherwise he hasnt been THAT bad. Find a middle reliever who doesnt have a few BP nights. There isnt one.
If I try to assinate George Bush, that wouldn't be a bad thing right?
Options at Triple A don't seem to be good, Miller seems to be the best pitcher but walks people and I don't know if Hanrahaen (sp) is ready at double A. But both of these guys I believe are being groomed for starting, what about the possibility of bringing them up and pitching out of the bullpen, like they used to do in the old days. Can somebody explain to me why this isn't done anymore
a-s-s-a-s-i-n-a-t-e
That's true. I guess I should expect some Service Men with silencers in my room tonight.
Dear Government,
You don't have to worry. I am not John Hinkley.
I need to throw off the government filters somehow :)
Does anyone know where I can find those statistics? They use to be printed in Baseball Weekly, but I cant find them there.
Baez makes 4.5 mils, doesnt k many people, and has very little discernable talent other than to luck out occasionaly. Thats why he gets "The Business".
Little should not have had him pitch the 8th. I'm honestly surprised he'd still bring him into the 7th with runners on base as well, but he lucked out then.
Sal Fasano interview!
You are wind and water and sky,
[Sal].
Tell me, [Sal],
How I can earn you love.
I would swim oceans,
I would move mountains,
I would do anything for you.
What do you want me to do?
http://tinyurl.com/nq8xo
you should join Andrew.
If Sal Fasano isn't a good enough reason then well, nothing is good enough for you. Ever.
Marge: Homer, when a man's biggest dreams include seconds on dessert, occasional snuggling and sleeping in til noon on weekends, no one man can destroy them.
Homer: Hey, you did it!
As for baez, while it continues to be fashionable to damn him with faint praise, he is what he is, which is a godawful middle reliever who like others of his ilk survives merely because he is fortunate enough to have found some schlub who will pay him a boatload of money to luck into getting three outs a couple of times a week. I am not sure what the "business" is, but I am quite sure I am getting it when a pitcher like baez is called serviceable in the right situations. Possibly he's serviceable cleaning Howard Fox's kitchen.
Baez is not good. I'm not going to be tricked by some lawyerly trickiness in to arguing otherwise. But he's not even the worst middle reliever on the team. Right? I've not seen you make that case (I don't think), unless it fits into the greater scheme of there not being such a thing as a useful middle reliever. Unless this is like an affirmative action program for other not-good middle relievers who haven't lucked in to big pay days, I don't get the point.
My theory last year and this year is our relief problems need be cured with better starting pitching. Right now we've got one B+ ace (Lowe), another B+ ace who can't last past five innings (Penny), an effective rookie who also can't last past five innings (Bills), and then three guys to fill the last two slots who often flame out after three or four innings, if not sooner. That exposes the bullpen too much. Bullpens are by definition comprised of pitchers you don't think are good enough to start (except the closer.) So it's silly to blame them for being inferior to the fifth-best pitcher on the team. If they were any better than that, they would be starting for us, or somewhere else.
You go to the bullpen because the starter has failed or tired. Our starters tire too soon and fail too often.
for some reason I thought you were a 40 year old guy.
No, that's me.
ps you have an interesting taste in music.
oh, ok.
Sorry to disappoint., I'm basically only half that.
me?
when you write it sounds older
601
yes
I still make spelling/grammer/punctuation mistakes up the ying yang. What don't you like about the music I listen to? :)
I have equipped my Chariot with turbo boosters so now I only have to wake up 5 minutes before class starts and still get there on time.
no, I'm just saying it's interesting that's all, were is that group from?
Bob I think I've seen a picture of you no? (on the dodger site)
how do you know so much about the draft?
I'd say dog is an apt description of Team USA.
Personally, I'm not afraid to say I'm ready for a panic trade.
There is a photo of me on Dodgers.com. I'm really Ned Colletti.
You want to trade for more relief pitching?
the music playing on my myspace is a joke. I don't really listen to Hot Sundae.
let's just relax, & hope Drew & Kent start hitting, & pray Colletti makes an o.k. trade for relief pitching or starting pitching, both?
Bob is actually Joel Guzman.
Same height, anyway.
you should have put that Barbie song, you know from that swedish band?
I never heard of "hot sunday" do you have a little sister that likes that group or something?
It's from Save by the Bell. The episode where Jessie becomes addicted to caffiene pills.
I thought she sang "I'm So Excited" before passing out.
And really, caffiene pills? They could've at least thrown the girl some crystal.
I rearly watche save by the bell but it makes sense now.
616 I'm trying. I can't really think of someone we could get that'd I'd want for relief, for all the reasons Steve as made his Sysiphusian mountain.
Colonoscopy day?
She did, you have a good memory (I only know this because they just played that episode for the 930 am show on TBS; ironic eh!).
The Hot Sundae song is the song kelly, screech and lisa were performing.
They could've at least thrown the girl some crystal.
Its okay. She got to be naughty in Showgirls.
hey nate, are you going to the get together at DS?
Showgirls I did see. :o)
I can't, I have work this weekend.
Never actually subjected myself to that movie. Would've been more interested in just seeing Jessie strip for ten minutes and being done with it.
My all time teenage crush was probably Kelly.
Dewan is cool. Love his work. Quote him to others. He does note that Izturis was injured last year and thus skewed his 3-year numbers. Very safe to say the consensus among major league scouts and field-personnel is that Izturis is decidely a better defender than Furcal (unless the TJ issue degrades him, which certainly is possible).
As for Furcal's defensive problems this year, Jon writes that they apparently are misleading or perplexing.
My belief is that Furcal's problems are a bit more acute than they should be, but are fairly indicative of where his skill set is and where it's going to stay.
My prediction in the winter that Furcal ultimately should go to CF, where he is better suited, was based in large part on the belief that his SS defense was headed down a slick slope.
Nothing that's transpired has forced me to relent on my assumptions.
Rafael Furcal is a max-effort thrower with poor footwork and dubious anticipation and timing skills. For years, his quick feet and rocket arm allowed him to compensate, although his shortcomings showed up on the margin, often at critical times. The minute but crucial slippage in athleticism makes him more vulnerable to miscues that a fundamentally sound SS won't make. In his dreams, Furcal would have the touch and feel of Vizquel when throwing the ball. Doesn't have it. Doubt he ever will.
The Braves valued him, but at nowhere near $13 million per year.
First, in line for Disneyland's Splash Mountain.
Second, a few years later at The Wherehouse across from my old apartment in Long Beach. He was trying to rent some movies with his friends but the store wouldn't take his check.
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