The fear about acquiring Seo was that his 2005 performance was a fluke. There should be an even greater fear that Mark Hendrickson's 2006 performance is the same.

This is a good point. Does Ned never look back at the deals he made that haven't worked out and wonder why they didn't work out? Does he not learn anything from his (apparent) mistakes? Given that Seo and Baez had apparently better than average 2005s, but have sucked in 2006, doesn't that inspire Ned to figure out how he managed to misevaluate their worth?

So when do we get to be formally introduced to the distinguished gentlemen from Tampa Bay? Tomorrow?

will Hendrickson be making his first start tomorrow against the Twins?

Baez didn't have a better than average 2005. That's part of the problem right there.

Carrying 3 catchers is going to limit Grady's double switching trigger finger I think. Seems like a disadvantage in extra innings games too.

1 Talk about making declarations from cherry-picked stats. ;D For the disappointing Seo and Baez/Carter on one side of the scales, don't forget Saito, Garciaparra, et al. on the other.

Ned will be on the Big Show on KSPN 710 AM Los Angeles this afternoon. The show starts at 3:00 p.m. PDT and is available on the net.

I would guess he will be on the first hour and I am sure that since he made the trade today, he will be on other shows too.

looking at Hendrickson's numbers is pretty scary. His 3.81 ERA isn't bad and his 1.28 WHIP is okay...but his K/BB ratio is only 1.50 and he only has 51K's in 89.2 IP.

Well, hopefully he manages to keep pitching decently well for us. Although the Navarro part of this deal still baffles me.

3 He just pitched 8 innings on Sunday, so I doubt he'll fit in for Wednesday.

Excellent take. Hendrickson is a downgrade from Seo but 3 yrs older and makes more money! This is trading the devil you know for the one you don't.

Where's the creativity? If Ervin Santana can be gotten then formulate some 3-way with Tampa. Would Tampa take Loney and Navarro for Crawford and we get Santana?

5 - As of now, the Dodgers have added a position player to the roster and removed someone from the back of the bullpen (Hendrickson/Hall for Seo/Tomko). How does that hurt them as far as maneuvering?

I'm going to try to stay open minded about this trade. Hendrickson pitched some decent games to date in some tough environments. Hopefully his transition to the NL will have some advantages as well. Its kinda sad when you look at a starter who gives up around 4 runs a game and consider it to be a decent upgrade.

So what exactly is our rotation right now, I would guess that it is currently:

1) Lowe
2) Penny
3) Erickson
4) Tomko/Perez/Billingsley
5) Hendrickson

Who is the odd man out, Tomko is on the DL, so is Perez or Bills the No. 4? I really want something more solid, but I guess we can't have it anytime soon. What about when Tomko comes back, does that mean Bills back to AAA?

6-

I don't think anyone is forgetting about guys like Nomar and Saito...those were great moves by Flanders.

It's the fact that he doesn't seem to learn from his past mistakes that's annoying.

Whether we could have gotten more for Navarro straight up is besides the point...the fact of the matter is that I believe Navarro could have been used to "sweeten the pot" in a deal for a more impact player...instead, Flanders seems to be dealing prospects with a negligible upgrade for the team AND hindering our ability to be more flexible in future trades.

13 - "Erickson?" Even if Sele declines, I don't think he's going to be Erickson.

I really think it's too soon to know. We have to see how long Tomko is out, for one thing. Beyond that, the Dodgers seem very reactive in terms of who stays in the rotation and who goes.

I do think the Dodgers were one of the only teams that liked Navarro when we acquired him. His stock was dropping for a bunch of reasons. I don't think his stock was particularly high now either. But I do think we should of been able to trade him for someone more useful than Hendrickson. I would of liked to see him involved in a trade for Maddux.

Don't know if anyone saw this. Mariano Duncan criticizes Ozzie Guillen. Guillen sure doesn't appreciate contructive criticism.

http://tinyurl.com/m5994

One question: When you say Hendrickson is older than Seo, that's undeniably true. But given his late entry into professional baseball, should we judge his age the same way we would another player who had only focused on baseball since his teens? Does that mitigate against what we might otherwise expect from a 32-year old pitcher?

10 There's no way Loney and Navarro are worth Crawford.

To lighten things up a bit, here's a nice little Pirates/Office Space parallel.

http://whereisvanslyke.blogspot.com/

15
Okay, replace Sele for Erickson, he is still smoke and mirrors, and not confidence inspiring. Granted he is better than Erickson, although I still relate the two in my head. I was so happy with the rotation when the season started and now it makes me want to puke. If only Odalis could go back to being decent I would be so much happier. Seo looked promising, and Tomko was Tomko (same as we got), but overall our starting pitching has been so much weaker than we could have anticipated imo.

I think the chance for improvment ends around 31, no matter when a pitcher started his career.

16. One question: who would have more value in a package deal right now-- Navarro or Hall? Before someone answers with by trading Hall we would be left w/out a backup catcher, the question is framed around trading either Navarro or Hall, both of which would leave us in the same situation.

This is a shockingly bad transaction. I mean, this is even harder to defend than Kazmir for Zambrano, in all seriousness. The Dodgers have traded a 22-year-old major-league-ready catcher for a replacement-level pitcher and a below average catcher - the catcher they traded is better than the one they are getting.

If they wanted to cut bait on Seo, that's okay, if silly. And if they truly don't trust any of Seo, Billingsley, and Perez to start (I imagine this trade is an overreaction to Billingsley's rough start against MIN), then sure, go out and look for a pitcher. But this barely qualifies as a pitcher, and trading Navarro for Toby F. Hall thoroughly qualifies as incompetence.

The old line about Sabean not grasping that old players are in decline, reasonably applied to Colletti after his offseason, apparently has a corollary: not understanding that very young players improve as they approach their peak. Navarro was rushed in 2004 for the Yankees' vanity and rushed in 2005 by the Dodgers' necessity; despite that, he's already reached average offensive levels for a catcher and will likely get back in line with his excellent defensive reputation prior to major league promotion. How anybody can give up on two years of an average catcher at the minimum and four above average years at arb. prices in exchange for the right to pay millions to mediocrities is completely beyond me.

Actually, forget that, it's not beyond me, because I completely understand the rationale, and that's the disturbing part.

It is weird to think that we have found 16 percent of the 2005 Tampa Bay Devil Rays roster to be worth acquiring.

17 - Yeah, I was waiting for Ozzie's response.

Tom's back!!!

24-

and none of them are named Crawford, Gomes, Cantu, or Huff.

23. Good post Tom.

Arent the D-Rays ran by an Ivy Leaguer now? They might tend to make smarter deals than when Lamar was running them.

[looks like he's seen a ghost - faints]

Ug.

Colletti trades two players who are currently valued on the market lower than they should be, for a pitcher who's value is at an all time high and has nowhere to go but down. This plus a mediocre catcher makes me think this whole thing smells a little of desperation.

But why is Colletti in such a rush to get a pitcher now? Sure, our rotation sucks after Penny and Lowe, but the Dodgers as they are currently constructed should handle the West. It's not like Hendrickson is going to make the Dodgers a post-season threat.

Keep the kids Ned.

Looks to me like there's going to be a twister that blows everything down that ain't got the faith to stand its ground.

30 - That song was about this?

The dogs on Main Street howl 'cause they understand.

Looking at the potential sellers, there isn't a lot out there. There are the Mark Redmans and the Bruce Chens but I don't see any potential for a big deal.

The only interesting pitcher out there is Jeff Weaver and I wonder if the Angels will find themselves like the Dodgers last year, still hanging in the race (at least in their head) at the deadline and find themselves with Weaver after August 31st.

The only difference is that I do not see the Angels offering arbitration to Jeff and so there are no draft picks on the horizon.

Now Weaver is protection for the uncertain physical status of Colon and Escobar but with Jered and Saunders in AAA, I think that he will be moved especially if he continues to pitch well. But can he get them a bat to protect Vlad, that I do not know.

This is great comedy...

Among AL lefties, Hendrickson ranks eighth in ERA behind Johan Santana (2.75), Scott Kazmir (3.21), Mark Buehrle (3.27), Barry Zito (3.36), Nate Robertson (3.38), Kenny Rogers (3.44) and Jamie Moyer (3.51).

31
Actually the song was just going through my head continually and I needed an outlet.

23 No one involved in this trade will ever be as good as Kazmir, and Zambrano and Hendrickson are about equal. I don't think anyone believes this was a partically good trade for the Dodgers, but it won't hurt the franchise nearly as much as the Kazmir trade did.

Hendrickson makes up his lack of talent with grit and heart. The guy is a grinder who just battles out there.

Toby Hall is a clubhouse chemistry booster. His presence in the clubhouse alone is worth a few million.

And don't forget about Hendrickson's beard. Other players on the team will see it and become jealous. Soon, you will see every Dodger sporting an awesome beard (except Toby Tall who has some of the worst facial hair that I've ever seen).

This could be our lineup in the world series:

Comparing the current Dodgers to other championship players
C Toby Hall= Pat Borders
1B Nomar= Jon Olerud
2B Jeff Kent= Frank White (with Chuck Knoblauch's leadership and defense)
SS Rafael Furcal= Edgar Renteria
3B David Bell= Scott Brosius
OF JD Drew= Paul O'Neill
OF Kenny Lofton= Marquis Grissom
OF Andre Ethier= David Justice
Other Matt Kemp= Dave Parker

I think what he's saying is that Kazmir was an unproven commodity when he was traded, so it was a little more defensible trade. Navarro is a more proven player at the time of his trade, and the Dodgers traded him for basically garbage.

Ugg. Can't we make this thread an exception from the no cussing rule?

Well, I'll try my best. This is the worst trade. Hendrickson is not a good pitcher. In fact, he is a poor pitcher. And Navarro is younger, cheaper, and at least as good as Hall. Let him be the back-up catcher. This trade has no upside to it as both aquisitions were known mediocrities. It could work out if Seo continues his implosion and Navarro gets injured again, but it is basically a push for now and is very bad longterm.

Toby Hall is a clubhouse chemistry booster. His presence in the clubhouse alone is worth a few million.

I'm a nice guy. I'd be willing to hang around the clubhouse for a mere few hundred thousand.

When the 4th OF comes out of retirement, it's the end of the argument. I don't remember my logic class perfectly, but I'm positive that was in there somewhere.

I'm a nice guy. I'd be willing to hang around the clubhouse for a mere few hundred thousand

D4P=Sandy Alomar???

38 Unproven in that he hadn't pitched in the majors, but I believe he was one of the top 5 prospects in baseball at the time. Plus, I'm not sure if you could call Navarro proven after 258 career at-bats. Even if you do, a .741 OPS and poor defense don't exactly excite like that of a stud lefty pitching prospect.

If Tom is still reading - or for anyone - Hendrickson has the lowest line-drive percentage in the AL.

http://tinyurl.com/nkyv6

Is this something you think he can keep up?

David Pinto of Baseball Musings inspired me to look this up with this post:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/015725.php

29 That's my biggest problem with the deal. The difference between Seo and Hendrickson is maybe 1-2 wins at most, and likely no wins whatsoever. Even if he means an extra win, there's a good reason he will be a non-factor in the playoffs, or even a negative factor. He provides no upgrade over Tomko/Sele/Bills/Odalis for playoff starts after Lowe and Penny. So he has almost no value this year, and he probably won't provide much next year, or the year thereafter, but he will be more expensive.

Hall provides a rather negligible upgrade over Alomar (certainly no more than a fraction of a win). He almost certainly would accept arbitration, so he probably won't bring any draft picks, although we could probably deal him for someone like Arthur Rhodes if we really wanted.

Navarro is no big loss, but there was no necessity to trade him. He was starting to hit in AAA, might as well have tried to let him increase his value. Ned needed to be more patient. Even if the value of starters rises in the next month, this trade just isn't worth the insignificant impact it will have.

Any doubts about Mr. Ned have now been realized:

He has traded Edwin Jackson, Chick Tiffany, Dionner Navarro, and Duaner Sanchez, and now has four fringe major leaguers to show for it: Carter, Hall, Hendrickson, and Baez (depite Baez's perceived past succeses, he belongs in this group).

If it weren't for Nomar's resurgence (which is absolutely a joy to watch), Mr. Ned could be judged a near disaster.

I'm warning you people. I'm going out of town for the weekend, and I've already bought up all the Ned Colletti effigies, so don't try anything rash.

Maybe Hendrickson's approach has made him harder to hit, although it has resulted in more walks. He's a groundball pitcher, so the Thirdstop will help him out.

Obviously Colletti wanted to take pressure off Martin down the stretch, and that's why he got Hall. Hall will be a free agent next year anyway, so I predict our new backup comes by way of non-roster invite, Colletti's greatest strength.

That said, Colletti is not going to try to top the Mets this year, but he's thinking more for the long term, implying that he thinks that McCourt will let him stay for the long term. Time will tell.

My opinion about Colletti just gets worse and worse. This is one pointless trade.

That said, Colletti is not going to try to top the Mets this year, but he's thinking more for the long term, implying that he thinks that McCourt will let him stay for the long term.

what?

This trade doesn't show he's looking at the long term..in fact, it does the exact opposite.

This trade makes zero sense no matter which way anyone tries to slice it.

44 No, line drive percentage is almost entirely luck based (there's a negative correlation in line drive percentage from year to year, so sayeth the Hardball Times Annual).

Obviously Colletti wanted to take pressure off Martin down the stretch, and that's why he got Hall.

Why couldnt Navarro be a backup catcher?

That said, Colletti is not going to try to top the Mets this year, but he's thinking more for the long term,

How is giving up a 22yr old Catcher, for two fringe players in their 30's, thinking long term?

51 - Is there an average figure?

53 The trend line appears to go around 23%, that's as close to an average as I can get.

30 - Bob, what song is that?

55 - Prove It All Night

46 Of that group, only Sanchez has made any impact, Jackson is now being considered as a closer, which I would have been a felony if that was tried here, Tiffany is out with an injury, and Navarro is probably still in AAA/MLB limbo and he, like Jackson is out of options after this year.

2006 BA Top Ten Dodger Prospects
1. Chad - MLB club
2. Andy Laroche - AAA
3. Joel Guzman - AAA
4. Jonathan Broxton - MLB club
5. Russell Martin - MLB club
6. Scott Elbert - High A club
7. Matt Kemp - MLB club
8. Blake Dewitt - High A club
9. Tony Abreu - AA
10. Chin-Lung Hu - AA

Now Jackson and Navarro were not eligible to be considered prospects but last year Baseball America had Martin rated over him and we all know what happened with Edwin. Tiffany after being a top ten prospect in 2005, dropped to 12th (bypassed by Elbert) with concerns about his conditioning.

I was sad to see to Duaner dealt but given the roster at the time of deal (with Gagne and especially Brazoban expected to be here and with Broxton and Kuo ready to come up) it seemed liked a good risk for another starter.

But Ned has not robbed the cradle yet so to presume that he will is a charge that cannot be made.

Send Ned and email to let him know what you think. If I had to guess, his email is:

nedc@ladodgers.com

54 - I can't tell how relevant the stat is.

Our savior's fallen ill, and he won't get up
We've cast away our stones, why won't he get up?
So unawake with you, you let me drive your car
You let me break your heart and still not want to give up
So now the only time I get to see you smile
Is in the darkest rooms with the brownest tiles
And to hear you laugh is a sweet refrain
So sick with joy, I'm the perfect boy
Our savior's fallen ill, but here's a souvenir
Another saint to pierce against your bedroom wall
It says you can't give up and that you won't wake up
Until you close your eyes and lay down

Or…
http://tinyurl.com/nrha4

A. Martinez and Yahoo! sports seem to think that this is part of some larger three way deal. Even Martinez, whose usually a "yes" man, said he would be baffled if this wasnt part of a larger deal because the trade as it is makes no sense.

Stay tuned.

Badlands is the song in 30

59 The point of the article was that there is zero correlattion is a pitchers line drive percentage from year to year, therefore pitchers have no control over line drives.

57 - I think there was a large group of people that wanted to make Jackson a reliever.

62 - Actually, I meant to say "The Promised Land." But either way, I had something else in my head.

Is Alomar going to remain as a pinch-hitter on the team? Wouldn't it have been more sensible to cut Alomar and use Navarro as a backup? Couldn't Ned have sent Seo down to AAA and brought up Houlton or perhaps just let Perez have another crack at the rotation?

Two Korean casualties in a span of 4 months. I don't think I can take it... :(

63 - Meaning that as they regress to the mean (or, as I want to call it out of boredom, the angry), their hits allowed will increase?

I suppose I'm not as down on this trade as everyone else is. I'm still in wait and see mode. One thing I like about the trade is that Hendrickson can be used as bait in a future trade, should Zito or Willis become available, whereas Seo had less value in that regard. For instance, Hendrickson and Odalis packaged together looks a lot better than Seo and Perez.

WOW! I am away from the internet for a few hours and this deal goes down?

Seems useless from my perspective. As poorly as Seo and Perez have pitched, I believe they will improve, some, before the end of the season.

This seems like a pointless deal. Not much to rag on and not much to praise. Sure, it would have been nice to get more for Navarro, but I am not really sure what GM's would have been willing to provide.

Sure not the Willis trade that was being discussed a few days back...

67 Basically. Line drives get converted into hits far more than any type of batted ball.

61 Well, the Yankees were rumored to be the top suitor for Hendrickson, but I'm not sure why Tampa Bay wouldn't just deal with them directly. Maybe Hendrickson and one of our outfielders (Cruz, Lofton, or Ethier) could be on their way to NY? The Yankees only have 3 or 4 prospects even worth caring about though with the gem being Philip Hughes.

There must be a pony in there somewhere... Ah, here it is!

Toby Hall has 8 home runs this season. That would have him tied for third place on the Dodgers, tied with Jeff Kent.

The Promised Land:

There's a dark cloud rising from the desert floor
I packed my bags and I'm heading straight into the storm
Gonna be a twister to blow everything down
That ain't got the faith to stand its ground
Blow away the dreams that tear you apart
Blow away the dreams that break your heart
Blow away the lies that leave you nothing but lost and brokenhearted

The dogs on main street howl,
'cause they understand,
If I could take one moment into my hands
Mister, I ain't a boy, no, I'm a man,
And I believe in a promised land
I believe in a promised land...

http://tinyurl.com/z2ha2

69 My thoughts exactly

I'm also curious to see what Hendrickson's stats are against the NL this year. (Does anyone happen to have this stat?) This can cut a number of ways, of course. Typically, however, it's much tougher for a hitter to switch leagues in the middle of the season than it is for a pitcher.

"For instance, Hendrickson and Odalis packaged together looks a lot better than Seo and Perez. "

Putting aside the fact that Perez is currently untradeable, why does Hendrickson look so much better to trade? He's older and more expensive, with a poor history prior to 2006 - is that something that a team trading Zito or Willis would jump for?

great trade. You're the man Ned!

Maybe the reason we seem to trade with the Devil Rays is that they are one of the few "sellers" on the market, most teams consider themselves contenders for postseason berths. If Coletti was patient, maybe more teams would have fallen out of "contention" in the middle of July where a deal would be more likely. Question: So this is worse than going after the D-train? If we had done the same or similar deal trading Seo or OP and Navarro to the Fish for D-Train, would we be blasting Coletti?
Personally, if this is the end of this deal, then we have to hope Hendrickson can give us some adequate outings pitching 6-7 innings with three runs allowed and with our hitting this year, that maybe good enough.

71 I doubt that Ned Flanders is smart enough to make-up a grand scheme to still Hughes away from the Yankees. And Hughes is the ONLY Yankee prospect worth attaining.

73 - So I was right (the second time)!

70 - Thanks.

61-

that's very interesting coming from a guy like Martinez. I just don't see who the heck out there would want Hendrickson and Hall....I'm basically assuming this is the only deal because #1 don't see who would want Hendrickson that badly that they couldn't have just gotten him themselves and #2 this screams of something Flanders would do.

71 Way too optimistic. I can see why the Yanks might've wanted Hendrickson but they don't Philip Hughes want him.

We don't really need prospects anyway. We need a starting pitcher who's better, this year, than all our starting pitchers except Lowe and Penny. Hendrickson isn't that pitcher, I don't think.

But here's another pony...by getting Hendrickson and only giving up Navarro among the NewGen Dodgers, it means Colletti won't give up another prospect to get another mediocre starter. The logic being: "Why would I trade (prospect) if all I can get is (crappy pitcher), when I was able to get Hendrickson for Navarro?"

76 -- Perhaps I spoke too soon about Perez. I doubt that I'm wrong about the value of Hendrickson as compared to Seo, however.

Maybe Ned is just a nice guy and wanted to accommodate Navarro.

Hey, and if we're going to get a pitcher from the Devil Rays can't we at least get one with All-Star credentials? Oh, wait...

36, 38, a few others: I never meant to imply this was a worse trade than Kazmir per se, just that that one had a better defense. The rationale behind that move - that Zambrano had 'upside,' that Kazmir was an injury waiting to happen and would probably have to move to relief, that Kazmir was likely at his high point in value - was deeply flawed and easy to call into question. Yet at least it was a meaningful defense, based on arguments instead of wishcasting.

The inclusion of Navarro in this trade, however, has only two possible defenses: 1) Hall is a better player; 2) they needed to throw him in to get Hendrickson. 1) is at best mildly true for this year and ignores the entirety of the 2007-2011 period. As for 2), the only possible defense of getting Hendrickson is that he is slightly better than the options already on hand, which is dubious. Since the Dodgers have to shell out extra cash for both H's, this all comes up smelling like ridiculous.

And by acquiring another catcher, the Bums don't even get to make the excuse that they had no use for Navarro because of Martin. Deciding you like Martin better is fine, but that doesn't mean Navarro has no value to the franchise. They've strangely traded him at a time when his value is at a low for a pitcher whose value is at an all-time high. And it's nearly impossible to imagine that Hendrickson couldn't be had for Seo plus a lesser prospect, with the only caveat being that perhaps the Rays would have held out because they've come to expect this kind of behavior from their trading partners.

While Zambrano for Kazmir showed a very poor ability to evaluate talent, this trade couples that with an apparent inability to understand opportunity cost.

44: No, it's not something he will keep up. In fact, it's kind of a sign of a stronger collapse to come. Pitchers do not wake up one morning with the ability to keep batters from hitting line drives. In terms of persistence of skill, LD% is at the bottom with HR/Fly, behind K, BB, and G/F. While the fluctuation Hendrickson is seeing is at the extreme, it is just fluctuation. While he is atypical in that he is at the extreme, it is typical each season for there to be a pitcher at the extreme at some point.

So just because Hendrickson's low BABIP is less due to luck ON balls in play does not mean that it is in any way less due to luck.

Now, I don't mean to imply that it is impossible that Hendrickson has made some major change and that his pitching has improved considerably this year because of a change in his skills. It's not just his LD% that's down, he's also getting more Ks and BBs this season, so one could look at his line and decide that he's changed. However, to do so requires a great deal of naivete and wishful thinking. If he truly had made a significant change - had added velocity, came up with a new pitch - then we might assume there was a reason for the change in his line. But I've heard nothing about that being the case, and the team who would know best whether it was true is the one that just sent him packing. Moreover, even if he had developed a new pitch or what have you, that alone is insufficient evidence to conclude even that there's a good chance that his uptick in performance will continue; I've never researched veteran pitchers with new pitches, but I'd imagine the pattern is a few months of an advantage followed by a leveling out.

Performance fluctuates greatly all the time, and the fact that a perfect storm of fluctuations away from his career norms has only yielded Erickson a 3.81 ERA should be disquieting enough.

82-

Im thinking this is the only starter we're going to get. Lowe, Penny, Hendrickson, Perez, Tomko/Bills? Who knows.

I'm just hoping to god we use Gagne's money next year to get Zito.

78 -- "If Coletti was patient, maybe more teams would have fallen out of "contention" in the middle of July where a deal would be more likely."
With Tomko on the DL, if Ned waited until July, the Dodgers could very well be included among the teams who have "fallen out of contention."

In other news... today's lineup:

Furcal, SS
Izzy, 3B
Nomar, 1B
Kent, 2B
Drew, RF
Saenz, DH
Kemp, CF
Cruz, LF
Martin, C

Lowe, P

82 A pitcher better, this year, than all our SPs except Lowe and Penny.

But thats exactly what Hendrickson is. Hes been Garbage in the past, but this year, hes pitched well, certainly better than Tomko, Perez, Seo, and Billingsley (although in limited innings.)

I see how the gripe is that navarro and Seo had potential to improve. But if mediocre 3/4 is all you were looking for, than mediocre 3/4 is exactly what you got.

it means Colletti won't give up another prospect to get another mediocre starter.

You're right. The next item on the list is a medicore middle reliever.

So Aybar for Torres I expect in the coming weeks.

54 23% as an average figure for line drive percentage doesn't make any sense, because according to Jon's first link in 44, the worst LD% for a qualified ALer is Pineiro at 25.2%, and Rodrigo Lopez is the only other qualified pitcher above 23%. Only 4 other pitchers above that mark have even 40 IP. Best guess looks about 17-18% by eye, but Hendrickson is a clear outlier.

86 Whither Sele?

Cruz batting 8th vs LHP?
Izzy batting 2nd vs LHP?

Please switch them Grits.

87

Hendrickson is not a significant improvement (if an improvement at all) over Seo, Perez, Houlton or any of dozens of pitchers available for much less than the price Coletti paid.

89

Hendrickson has not pitched better this year. His ERA is lower due to his low BABIP, but this is not anything he's doing. It's just luck, random variation, normal fluctuation. It won't last. And Mr. Ned has given up 2 players who will be better than him, and at tthe least have more trade value than this in the future.

With Tomko on the DL, if Ned waited until July, the Dodgers could very well be included among the teams who have "fallen out of contention."

A healthy Tomko/Hendrickson is the difference between contending and not contending?

87 Which of these pitchers is better: Brett Tomko, Odalis Perez, Jae Seo or Mark Hendrickson.

If I had to choose, Hendrickson would be, at best, my second choice.

93 You do understand that the change you are proposing likely would make almost no difference? Izzy is actually a pretty good right handed batter. It is as a lefty when he struggles.

It's frustrating for me, though, to think of what we gave up for the guys we're giving away... Shawn Green and Duaner Sanchez for Hall and Hendrickson? I know that's not the way to look at it, but the timing of the trade really sapped the value from Seo and Navarro. What would we get in a trade for Martin, now? Probably a front line starter, right? I mean, Navarro was nearly on the same level at the start of the season as was Martin, was he not? Beyond that, I can't stand the idea of trading a guy who's reached well past his ceiling for a guy that still has plenty above his head, especially considering starting pitching! I mean, Seo has been WOEFUL, but as a guy that just traded for him, how can Colletti's opinion of him have fallen so far in such a short time? If he saw Seo pitch last year, he saw something that made him go 8-2/2.59, something that is presumably fixable, no? I mean, I understand that we are desperate for innings, but I feel that, in the second half, Seo and especially Odalis Perez are far more likely to turn their problems into success than Hendrickson is to maintain his own. Beyond that, the need of acquiring Hall just confuses me.

91 Fair enough, I just eyeballed that number by looking at a graph.

Great Trade! I'm stoked.

Seo -Home:5.65 Road: 6.00 (5.78 total)
Hendrickson-Home:5.75 Road: 2.20 (3.81 total)

We avg. 5.83 runs per game.

We gave up Seo who stinks and navarro who couldn't throw anyone out at 2nd.

I doubt this is the end of the Dodger trades before July 31st. Regardless we improved our pitching and didn't give up any young 'talent' from the farm.

We'll focus on a reliever and/or a better trade for someone bigger. So far well before the trade deadline, we're okay...but not done.

75 I'm also curious to see what Hendrickson's stats are against the NL this year.

I looked it up.

His two most recent starts are against the NL:

at home, against ARI: 7 innings, 9 hits, 4 ER, 3 walks, 2 K. He won.

at home, against ATL: 8 innings, 8 hits, 4 ER, a homer, 2 walks, 5 K. He lost.

On that note, quit crying like anyone would have given us the time of day for SEO/Navarro, we have plenty of time to trade and we're in first place in this tight division.

A lot of complaining here. Trade doesn't really eat at me that much. Seo was a mistake so Colletti got rid of him.

Eh, I am not really infused with any of emotion as some of you guys are.

100 You can't fool me, Rawitch!

103 That's just cause Navarro was a Yankee prospect.

(tongue in cheek!)

You do understand that the change you are proposing likely would make almost no difference? Izzy is actually a pretty good right handed batter.

I was thinking of how good Cruz is vs LHP. I dont think Izzy should ever bat anywhere but 8th or 9th.

91 The actual average depends on year and league, and parks effect it a little bit too (figuring out how is tough, though, because it also reflects scorer bias etc.). But it's typically around 18%; Hendrickson has been a bit above that in previous years, but not in a statistically significant way.

And I've noticed a few people referring to the shift to the NL being a help to Hendrickson. Yes, the AL is actually quite a bit better at the present time, but it's not anything like a run per game better. League adjusted, Hendrickson still projects as not substantially better than replacement-level in the NL, at least using a conservative (non-BPro) RL calculation.

What would we get in a trade for Martin, now? Probably a front line starter, right?

Thats a great point.
Frontline starter + Navarro >>>Martin/Hendrickson

105

I think its because we still have a catcher whos going to be here for at least 6 years in Martin so Navarro wasn't in our future plans anyways. Maybe thats why I am not really feeling any emotional attachment to this trade.

But I do agree that we didn't get value back for Navarro. But its not something I am going to freak out over. This isn't going to be on par with pierzinski for liriano, nathan and boonser or delino for pedro, or even zambrano for kazmir.

109 Very true, which is why this doesn't exceed the Baez trade in terms of pure insanity.

What I don't get is how a guy can be highly regarded when we get him, comes up to the major leagues, puts up a .740 OPS in 250 at bats as a 21 year old, and now he's worthless.

103-

I dont think it's necessarily this trade as much is it is a look into the mind of Flanders and how he works.

That's what scares me...Sabean is notorious for trading away young talent for older players on the decline...I was worried about that to begin with when Flanders came aboard, and I'm more worried about it now. Like someone posted earlier...we've managed to deal Jackson Tiffany Sanchez and Navarro and have gotten back Hall, Hendrickson, Baez and Carter. I'll now go hurl myself off a bridge.

95 -- Given the alternatives at this point, I would say that is pretty accurate, yes. If the deal avoids having to make another 3 starts each by both Perez and Seo, I'll take it. Without another arm in the rotation, and with Tomko on the DL, that's what the Dodgers would be facing right now.

Hendrickson replaces Tomko in the rotation for the time being, and can be used for trade bait should one of the big name starters become available.

People are acting as though this trade is being thought of by the Dodgers as a long-term solution to their problems. It clearly is not that, but it buys them time until something better comes along.

What I don't get is how a guy can be highly regarded when we get him, comes up to the major leagues, puts up a .740 OPS in 250 at bats as a 21 year old, and now he's worthless.

DePo acquired him.

Maybe not the best day to make a trade when you consider the Dodgers go against Liriano who Sabean/Colleti traded away

Well, I guess we can't accuse Neddy of wanting "proven" players anymore.

I'm sure the "Do anything just for the sake of doing something" crowd is thrilled right now.

And why do I have the feeling that if the Yankees or Red Sox had picked up Hendrickson, we'd be seeing it under the little Breaking News box on ESPNNews?

110

Honestly, his defense leaves a lot to be desired for at a position that baseball player expect the most out of defensively. He is lazy behind the plate and looking at his body, you can make a case that as he gets older, he is going to lose mobility and stamina.

That said, like Jackson, I wish Navarro all the luck in the world. I was more bitter about losing jackson then I am right now about losing Navarro.

Oh man, sometimes Around the Horn can be hilarious. The current subject:

"Gay: Good choice for Raptors?"

So that's why they went extinct...

Sorry for reposting but I realized I posted this in the previous thread (and now that I'm way behind on work after watching the France-Spain match at lunch, I'll shaddup for awhile).
--------
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more a straight Navarro for Hendrickson trade would have seemed okay. The other aspects of the deal make less sense to me. I really do think Hendrickson will be better than Seo this year (from what little I've seen of the former, and too much seen of the latter) but all the other aspects of the trade make it seem odder.

I agree with the above poster (responding to my response) that having Navarro as insurance made me feel better in case Martin gets hurt, especially since we know that Alomar won't be around much longer. That said, the catcher we did get (in this weird trade) is a pretty good one, he will make a very solid backup (which sounds like damning with faint praise but isn't meant to). Toby Hall - two huge baseball fans I work with (and fantasy GMs) walked by just now to tell me that Toby Hall's a really solid catcher. FWIW.

Perhaps part of the reason here is also to give Navarro a chance to start somewhere else? Not that it's all about charity here - and perhaps I'm being charitable - but I still say, Hendrickson's better than Seo and Hall could even be better than Navarro. (Still, I wish they hadn't given up on Seo so quickly.)

117 - LOL

Hendrickson replaces Tomko in the rotation for the time being, and can be used for trade bait should one of the big name starters become available

I dont think any of the teams trading big name starters would be enticed by taking back Hendrickson. Hendrickson is just a guy, as Bill Parcells would say.

Also: what OCD and Nate said above.

116 Wasn't this guy "Pudgito" before we got him. How come the second the Dodgers touched him he went from the second coming of Ivan Rodriguez to fat and lazy.

we'd be seeing it under the little Breaking News box on ESPNNews?

Thats where my Dad saw this trade.

Nate- We'd be seeing it until the end of tonight's Yankee game, where the new breaking news would be, "Jeter gets a base hit, extends streak to 2".

122 Three words - Yankees. Hype. Machine.

The emotional reaction to this trade on Dodger Thoughts has not been out of proportion compared to the emotional reaction to other deals.

Me, I'm still wondering whether Duaner Sanchez could have been converted into a starting role to save us all this trouble. I need someone to tell me that wouldn't have worked.

122

might have been the yankee hype machine. they have been known to do that.

anyways, I am sort of buying into the hendrickson still has upside discussion. He is relatively new to pitching full time and lefties usually take a bit longer to get it together. For being 32 IMO, his arm is still super fresh. His prime might be 32-35 instead of the customary 28-31.

Just trying to show a little optimism in this sea of negative nellies.

I need someone to tell me that wouldn't have worked.

It wouldn't have worked.... :)

120 - "Hendrickson is just a guy, as Bill Parcells would say."
If Hendrickson is just a guy, then what does that make Seo? Either way, Hendrickson has more value than Seo, and the Dodgers have a pitcher they can deal in another trade. Frankly, I'm amazed that anyone was willing to take Seo off of the Dodgers' hands at this point.

122 - Navarro started out as "Pudgito" in the Yankees system, but was quickly outed as being just another mediocre overhyped Yankee prospect. He was damaged goods when Depo acquired him. The end of last season was his only real shining point in his career over the last 3 or so years.

This year, his "0-for-16" and untimely wild pitches branded him as a lazy failure, and Martin quickly stole the spotlight from him.

I'm about as bummed as you can be when your favorite team trades its backup catcher.

I also wonder how much Grady Little influenced this trade. Compare how much Little used Alomar when Navarro was healthy to now. And Little has never seemed that high on Seo.

127 Hey, I can be optimistic when there's something to be optimistic about. If there was some stat that indicated Hendrickson hasn't just been getting lucky, please show it to me.

129-

how the heck does Hendrickson have more value than Seo? We traded for Hendrickson at the peak of his value, and traded Seo at the time of his lowest value. Apparently Flanders doesn't understand the old rule buy low/sell high

127 -- Yay! A new club is born on Dodgerthoughts: the optimistic ollies. LOL

Maybe Colletti is trying to make up for his trade for Baez/Carter.

Frankly, I'm amazed that anyone was willing to take Seo off of the Dodgers' hands at this point.

Not when Seo makes the league minimum, and Hendrickson makes nearly 2mils.

I honestly want to know what Dodger scouts told Colletti re: Bearded Giant.

Me, I'm still wondering whether Duaner Sanchez could have been converted into a starting role to save us all this trouble. I need someone to tell me that wouldn't have worked.

Jon, that type of thinking is too progressive nowadays. There's this mindset that once you relieve a few years, you can't go back to starting. Defenders of this will point to Danny Graves as proof, without realizing that Graves was never any good in the first place.

Sanchez started most of his career until getting to the majors, so it's not like it'd be completely new to him. It might have taken a few months to stretch him out, but he eventually would have done it and been able to give the Dodgers at least whatever they thought they'd get out of Tomko.

I still think given the chance, Seo would have righted himself and been just fine, but I realize I'm in the extreme minority with that position.

127 - I'm all for that line of thought. I want to believe. I just don't have reason to. Other than Aaberration Sele.

128 - you need to do it without the smiley face.

133 - No. You're wrong there. I would imagine that Seo's value could still sink lower. And likewise Hendrickson's can still rise.

130 He has a .740 OPS, and no one was complaining about his defense last year (granted we had just expirenced Jason Phillips).

The guy was hurt just before the start of the season, and more importantly, he's 22. This trade won't hurt the Dodgers (unless Martin goes down today), but I'm sure we could have gotten something better for him.

140-

And couldn't Seo's value skyrocket and Hendrickson's plummet?

140-

What you don't seem to understand is that while Hendrickson might be an upgrade right now over Seo, it's such a marginal upgrade that it's almost pointless to even make the trade in the first place. Not to mention trading catchers, and getting the WORST of the two back PLUS adding a ptbnl. This trade, while it won't really hurt us, is completely and utterly illogical.

131. I'm wondering how long Alomar remains on the team when one of the OF'ers (Repko, Ledee) gets healthy? And doesnt it seem pretty ridiculous that the team can carry Alomar as a 3rd catcher, but have Aybar toiling in AAA?

For the team to value Sandy Alomar/Toby Hall more highly than Navarro is just crazy.

Say Brian McCann had gotten hurt, and Jarod Saltamacchia came up and played great for the Braves...Then the Braves trade McCann for Mark Hendrickson and Toby Hall. Everyone would be saying how dumb the Braves were. This is the exact same parallel.

Let's change the subject to other matters, things that much easier to solve and agree on, like, how do we fix Kuo's control? And will Jayson Werth ever play again? And who deserves the most credit for writing Citizen Kane? Things like that.

142 - Sure. In either case, we don't have any sort of guarantee. The same goes for the sky falling, as well, which apparently is much more likely now that Hendrickson is wearing Dodger blue.

144 So you think Navarro is just as good as McCann? That's where your parallel ends for me, but I do get your point. I'm going to guess that Hall replaces Alomar, though I could be wrong.

146 So, Grady "Chicken" Little then?

141 - This is all Russ Martin's fault.

If Russell Martin hadn't come up and hit like "Russ Almighty" right out of the gate, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Navarro would still be the starter in LA, and Martin would be posting Bench-like numbers in Vegas. The Dodgers would be the proud owners of a young proven ML-starter (Dioner) and a can't-miss stud in the minors (Russ).

But noooo...doesn't Russ understand there is a learning curve in the pros?

146-

you're right, there is no guarantee...so why make the deal in the first place? Especially the second part of the deal where we get fleeced.

we've now given up jackson, tiffany, sanchez, navarro for Hendrickson, Hall, Baez, and Carter. I know the guys we traded aren't tearing it up (except for Sanchez) but the guys we've gotten back are horrendous...oh, and let's not forget that we're paying those four guys something in the neighborhood of 9-10 mill. I'm sorry, but Jackson could do just as bad as Baez has done for the league minimum rather than 4 mill.

Navarro was just as valuable to the Dodgers, as Brian McCann would be to the Braves should Saltamacchia beat him out. Somehow, I dont think the Braves would be dumb enough to trade McCann for garbage though just bc another prospect beat him out.

143 - No. The trade is the lesser of two evils at this point. As I've belabored the point above a number of times, the alternative is watching both Perez and Seo start games until Tomko comes off the DL.
So here's the thinking involved for Ned: "Hmmmmm, would I rather watch two pitchers continue to walk out and throw gas on the fire every 5 days, or would I rather try something different?"
I don't see why this is so hard for people to figure out.

Its official, Ned Colletti is an idiot.

141 Don't forget that the Jason Phillips principle renders all comparasions to him useless.

143 Because at least Odalis Perez was good at one point in his career?

If there is anything about Hendrickson that makes him desirable, except his luck based four ERA this year, please show it to me.

oh man, what a stupid stupid trade. without having read any of the comments from this post or the last, let me say that i believe seo's fate was sealed with the walkoff walk to bobby crosby in oakland. i think grady wanted no part of him anymore after that. though i don't at all see why it necessitated a trade for another pitcher who's proven to be even more mediocre than seo, and the selection of a 31-year-old catcher with zero upside over dioner navarro. absolutely retarded.

Hmmmmm, would I rather watch two pitchers continue to walk out and throw gas on the fire every 5 days, or would I rather try something different?"

Hendrickson is just as likely to throw gas on the fire if you understand his peripherals. Even a marginal improvement isnt worth giving up a Navarro.

Pitchers like Hendrickson/Tomko do not make the difference between winning championships. So trading a piece that possibly could (Navarro), isnt smart.

Given the vitriol aimed at Seo (and Perez and Tomko) in recent weeks, I'm surprised there isn't more celebration on this board today. With Tomko on the DL, exactly how many people were interested in watching Seo make another start for the Dodgers?

151 The problem with your analogy is that Brian McCann is significantly more talented than Navarro. McCann is also significantly more talented than Toby Hall. The difference is Navarro isn't significantly more talented than Toby Hall, if he is more talented at all. Plus I know you don't care about this but Hall can play defense, while Navarro can't. That is usually a plus for a backup catcher.

155

He's tall. Haven't you heard that all tall pitchers are awesome.

Incidentally, Hendrickson's numbers on grass this year are much lower than on Astroturf. I'm not sure if there is a luck component in there or not. What surface do the Dodgers play on again?

The difference is Navarro isn't significantly more talented than Toby Hall

He's not?
Prove it.

159 Hey, you may not like Navarro, but lets not compare him to a 30 year old with a .298 on base percentage.

152 - It's hard to go along with that because three months ago, you would have looked at the numbers and considered Seo better than Hendrickson. It's hard to assume that the flip-flop between the two is permanent.

[156] i meant "even more proven to be mediocre" rather than how i phrased it.

158 Because Hendrickson has made a career out of being terrible. Seo at least has been decent in previous seasons. Hendrickson isn't really an upgrade over Seo, he's just a different (and new) gas can.

Neddie's full Depodesta enema (Depodestenema?) is now nearly complete, but he keeps throwing Twinkies and Ding Dongs down the gullet.

162 Take a look at Hall's 2001 season, looks just like Navarro's first real shot in the bigs. Plus Navarro has catcher stagnation syndrome written all over him (his body, his stats, everything). Not to mention the lack of defense. Hall is a better back up catcher, when you factor in the defense.

164 - But why does everyone assume that this trade is meant to be a permanent solution?
If you take a look at the schedule the next month, the schedule gets progressively more difficult. If the trade helps them get through this patch, and makes a bridge to either a better trade, or Tomko getting healthy, I would consider it a success at this point, albeit a painful one.

168 By the way, I don't like the trade, I think Seo has a lot more talent than Hendrickson, and Navarro may have been able to fetch more in trade, but losing Navarro isn't killing me.

168 First, it looks nothing like it (Navarro has plate discipline), second, Hall was 25, Navarro was 21. Huge difference.

So when is the Bearded Giant suppose to start anyways?

But why does everyone assume that this trade is meant to be a permanent solution?

We don't. In fact we don't even assume that it's meant to be a temporary solution.

im not happy about trading Navarro, he's young and going to get better, you cant really argue that, and he's also better than Hall. Like the Baez trade, I have to ask, why are you giving these young players away? If Mark Hendrickson is the best you can get for Navarro, you shouldn't trade Navarro. A team with a bright future shouldn't pay top dollar for 30 year old mediocraties.

when i called josh rawitch out on his "one of the best lefties in the AL" spin he responded with this:

More on the Hendrickson trade below...as for my "spin," I should have said that he has been one of the top lefties in the AL this season. There's no debating that, statisically. Plus, he's gotten 3.1 runs per game from his offense and I'm told from my counterpart over there that he could easily by 7-4 this year. An ERA under 4.00 in the AL is pretty impressive and it seems the turf in TB did not help his numbers. When he's on grass, he's pretty darn good.

169 Tomko being injured helps more than Tomko being healthy. Tomko is barely better than Seo (he has K'd fewer people than Seo in more innings, and his ERA is only a half a run lower) or Odalis. Hendrickson just isn't an upgrade over Seo, or a very minimal one. There's no reason to believe he will be any better than Seo over the next month

An ERA under 4.00 in the AL is pretty impressive and it seems the turf in TB did not help his numbers. When he's on grass, he's pretty darn good.

Well, it is true that Hendrickson's numbers are much better this year on the road than at home.

173 - But you don't know that. And I don't know the opposite will be the case, either.

175- Nate, don't rag Josh too much...he's just doing his job.

I think I'm covering a couple games during the next homestand. I'll ask him how he feels about internet folks calling him out for "spinning" things. :)

175 - Look, Josh is the PR director. As these guys go, he's pretty forthright - but it's not like he can remotely say anything negative about the trade, whether or not he believes it. So I wouldn't put him on the spot too much.

175 What is TB's average runs scored per game?

What did Bearded Giant do on grass last year?

Would the playing surface have anything to do with his line drive %?

175 Not that this should surprise anyone, but Hendrickson has a career 4.95 ERA on grass.

Some dude over at BBTF said this is Navarro's last option year. He came up in '04 with the Yankees, but it looks like it was when rosters expanded (BB-ref says that his debut was in Sept).

Last year was his first option year right? He still has one more year left doesn't he?

Somewhere Chuck Lamar has finally gotten closure for the Jason Romano deal.

179

too late.

Sorry, I just can't stand all this spin. That more then the trade, has stirred up some anger in me.

Jason Romano is back in the Tampa Bay organization I believe.

"Mark will add some depth to our starting rotation as we head into the second half of the season," said Colletti.

1 + -1 = 0

I am not a stats guy, but can someone check my math. How does this add depth?

"When he's on grass, he's pretty darn good."

Isn't that prohibited under the new drug policy?

This may be somewhat useful:

Career Stats:
Hendrickson- 5.01 ERA, 646.1 IP, 1.11 HR/9, 2.52 BB/9, 4.51 K/9
Seo- 4.13 ERA, 464.1 IP, 1.12 HR/9, 2.66 BB/9, 5.29 K/9
Perez- 4.18 ERA, 960 IP, 1.07 HR/9, 2.48 BB/9, 6.44 K/9
Tomko- 4.55 ERA, 1510 IP, 1.23 HR/9, 2.88 BB/9, 5.84 K/9

According to their careers, Hendrickson isn't an improvement over any of our pitchers.

187 I was disappointed by that quote, too.

I'm still trying to figure out why they did this trade -- what the long-term goal was -- and the job of the press release is to tell me that, I think. If I worked for the Dodgers, I would have tried to get Ned to approve a more revealing quote.

Has the Ned Colletti is an idiot angle been covered yet?

1 + -1 = 0

I believe that's known as "substraction by addition."

189 - Any sense of how the statistical comparison is affected by the respective teams that each player has pitched for?

189- Hendrickson pitched in the AL East, The toughest division in baseball.

It's going to be interesting now, to see how the Colletti Era is viewed... as long as he guards his prospects, he'll fare better than his recent predecessors, but I'm frankly getting quite concerned with him after these Devil Ray deals. Even if Baez was Baez-of-yesterday this year (and Jax 'n Tiffany were pitching well below-average as they are now), I still wouldn't support that trade. The two, their talent combined, have what, 6+ years under the Tropicana Roof to find at least some success between them, right? One year of Baez' success wouldn't outweight that, in my opinion. In this case, I'm not so upset on what we've lost as much as what we've received, as seems to be the case with everyone else.

Odalis Perez needs to take a jog once or twice.

This trade also scares me more when I consider Izturis.

Hendrickson pitched in the AL East, The toughest division in baseball.

So did Carter Baez.

Here is what i see:
Hendrickson = seo
Hall < navarro

It looks like 1 of 2 things happened:
Ned looked at hendickson's era and not his peripherals and decided hendrickson is an upgrade.
OR
Ned decided to use navarro to get a crappy pitcher while giving a decent catcher away hoping that he will catch lightning in a bottle (get lucky) with hendrickson while giving tampa a crappy pitcher back for hendrickson at the same time replacing navarro with hall.

Bottom line we downgraded with this trade.
A sign of what's to come.

The prospects (logan white) and the depodesta guys (penny, lowe ect.) are what's keeping this team alive.
Nomar was a no brainer.
Bradley and perez for ethier = replaced bradley's production and perez was a nobody.
Saito i give ned credit for.
Everything else ned has done has been garbage.

197 - So the entire argument rests on a genetic fallacy?

Someone needs to go into Ned's office and take out Tampa Bay's number from his rolodeck (not sure how to spell it).

I cannot believe this is what we gave up Navarro for. Ned and Frank are idiots and I am starting to doubt Kim and Roy because I do not think Ned keeps making these moves without other people agreeing with him.

I have no faith in the Dodger front office. Thankfully, I believe our prospects will carry us in the future, unless of course they are traded for some terrible Devil Rays pitcher.

198 Wasn't everyone calling Ned an idiot for signing Nomar? Is that what you mean by no-brainer?

Other scary thought: what if there is no other shoe to drop?

I guess it's too late to suggest that this thread not devolve into a "Colletti Sucks," or "the Dodgers front office has no clue" thread.
I suppose I've come to expect too much from my Dodgerthoughts discussions.

I think we can put all of this in context real fast. Show of hands - Mark Hendrickson or Jeff Weaver?

201

Wasn't everyone calling Ned an idiot for signing Nomar?

I wasn't.
I wanted nomar.
It was a no brainer to sign nomar.

203 Well I think that falls under the slander defense. You're allowed to say it if you can prove it to be true.

205

Didn't you want a choi/saenz platoon at 1b?

i dont understand why the dodgers are considered buyers in the first place. no available player would help the dodgers win in the playoffs. realistically, 2006 is AAAA year for best core of young players in baseball.

id rather have seen colletti do nothing (including extending kent's contract) than trade any young player, or sign any +33 yr old player. finishing .500 for one more year is a small price to pay in exchange for a young talent team in place for 2007-2010.

200 Well, at least they haven't let Ned trade away any of the top prospects. I imagine Ned just asked them what they thought of Navarro and they didn't give him much of a glowing review.

205 Right... to play 3b.

Ned looked at hendickson's era and not his peripherals and decided hendrickson is an upgrade.

The same way he looked at Baez' saves and not his peripherals. Unfortunately, he does not appear to have learned from that mistake.

201 - Many people were in favor of signing Nomar, just not for first base.

That being said, Ned's the one that got Nomar, so I think he deserves credit for that. And Nomar has been hugely meaningful.

Ned also should get credit for the Bradley/Ethier trade, though keep in mind that Bradley would have been traded, per McCourt's orders, even if DePo were still GM. And Oakland is certainly a likely target for a DePo trade. Not really trying to take away from Ned there - he did do it, when I wasn't sure it was a good baseball move.

But no, it isn't true at all that people were calling Ned an idiot for signing Nomar.

205

Didn't you want a choi/saenz platoon at 1b?

Yes but i wanted nomar at 3b or LF.

203 - From what I've seen, that standard of evidence has yet to be applied in this case.

genetic fallacy

That explains the mustache, if not our hostile takeover of the worst team in baseball.

I understand we need a starting pitcher, but a GM should not make a move to just make a move.

This is why I wanted us to give Hochevar what he wanted. If we just had signed Hochevar after the draft, he probably would be in line to get called up now. That way we have a good young pitcher for the future and we wouldn,t have had to get rid of Navarro for garbage.

211

The same way he looked at Baez' saves and not his peripherals. Unfortunately, he does not appear to have learned from that mistake.

Exactly!

203 - I don't think that opinion is shared by everyone. And I think this discussion has offered much more comments on the nuances of today's trade than just a blanket dismissal of Colletti. I hope you can see that.

212
Can we give credit to Ned for Ethier? He even said that Logan White told him to ask for Ethier in return. So I think we should credit Logan more. I think Ned would have dumped Milton for anyone frankly.

On the plus side, Toby Hall only trails Drew by one for most HRs on the team.

218 - Understood, and duly noted. Although the comments in the last 40 posts or so were heading in that direction.

Colletti is on 710 right now.

219

Can we give credit to Ned for Ethier? He even said that Logan White told him to ask for Ethier in return. So I think we should credit Logan more. I think Ned would have dumped Milton for anyone frankly.

Exactly!
That's why i don't give credit to ned for ethier.
Nomar was a no brainer, so giving credit to ned for that well i guess, but still it was a no brainer.

So, saito is ned's ONLY gem.

Colletti is on 710 right now

Is that what the kids are calling it now-a-days? We used to call it wacky tobacky.

223 Since you only seem to be giving him credit for results, Sele and Lofton have been pretty good so far.

219/223 - I'm not sure how much credit to give Ned for Ethier, but we're starting to split hairs here. We're not parsing out who DePo listened to when he made a trade. I'm sure he listened to Logan White for something.

223

with that logic, Saito should be credited towards the Dodgers Asian operations director since he was the one that told Colletti to sign Saito.

seriously, even though Colletti is listening to his scouts, hes the one pulling the triggers on the deal. So he should get the credit and the blame for his transactions. You cant pick and choose.

shall i assume that everyone on this thread considers the dodgers buyers simply b/c they lead the division?

222
Colletti is on 710 right now

Does he need to drive to South Gate for some reason?

228 Frankly, I wouldn't mind if they neither bought nor sold. My two goals for the season are 85 wins and lots and lots of at-bats for the kids. Everything else, for me, is gravy.

Ask me again next year, when my goals will be higher.......

229 He better move fast- the angry mob is on the 105 east and closing.

223

Nomar wasn't a no-brainer. I remember plenty of people here opposed to that signing when it occurred (especially considering the position he'd be playing).

Sounds like that Sandy is a candidate for an early retirement when either Ledee or Repko comes off the DL. Also look for Hall to play (Hendrickson start and maybe double switching when Baez comes in).

224 - I'm referring to AM 710, the radio station.

229 This isn't the east coast, we use "the" before the number of the freeway when talking about them.

(and who Hee'd be replacing)

235
I know that, but I thought the joke was pretty good anyway!

Tough room today.

I meant that Ned Colletti is on drugs.

237 - "Tough room today."
My thoughts exactly, but for different reasons at this point.

Boston Globe is reporting Gammons is in emergency surgery with a brain aneurysm.

Alright:
Nomar
Saito
Ethier
Are ned's gems.
The book is still out on sele, but i don't expect him to last.
Everything else ned has done transaction wise is mediocre or garbage.

He is giving prospects their chance tho, well somewhat.

Ned is definately losing on trades tho, he got equal value in the bradley/perez for ethier deal, but everything else.....

234 can you recap wha he said. thanks.

The only thing that really disturbs me about this trade is it seems to prove that Ned's trade philosophy is always go for the veteran. That's one reason Liriano is now a Twin, though you really have to blame Sabean for that. The actual players involved in this don't really mean much in the long run IMO. But it is a tell, as they say in poker. The last two weeks of July are going to be suspenseful.

240
Wow, I hope he pulls through. I am a big fan of Peter Gammons. I wish him the best.

241 Sele for what he has accomplished with smoke and mirrors this season has to be a plus. He has given us far more than we could have ever anticipated so far. And without him, we could be in last place.

And the Boston Globe had Bob Ryan write the Gammons story. I wonder if he was with him when he got sick.

That's really sad about Gammons.

Nate is going to have a heart attack with the closing statement, "If I can get a number one, I will shake loose some top prospects, not a boatload but a couple."

For a little humor-break. How you know if your team is infected with Tracy-ball:

http://thundermatt.blogspot.com/2006/06/tracyball-faq.html

248

Well, it depends on his definition of a "number one".

242 - He said the following (paraphrasing):
- There are more trades coming.
- Likely the trades won't come for a few weeks yet.
- Hendrickson isn't intended to be great, just to shore up the back end of the rotation.
- Another #4 level starter was needed, since the bullpen is getting taxed lately.
- He wanted another veteran catcher because he isn't certain how Martin will fare once he reaches September.
The interview was fairly long, and the AM 710 guys were overly effusive in their praise, both of Colletti and Hendrickson. If you would like more details, let me know.

Actually in northern California they don't put a "the" in front of their freeways. It's a little freakish.

243 - That concerns me more than anything else.

He's already got number two, and now he's going after number one. Makes sense.

The interview was fairly long, and the AM 710 guys were overly effusive in their praise, both of Colletti and Hendrickson. If you would like more details, let me know.

I would like more details please :)

Great move by the D-Rays to get a young catcher to keep around for awhile. They have set themselves up well for the future when it comes to their position players. They have enough depth to trade for some quality pitching now.

New posts up top, including the game thread.

Thanks for the news report on Gammons - sad and scary.

Well, it is true that the team right now is better than it was yesterday. Whether that will make much of a difference by the end of the year we'll have to wait and see.

254 - Regarding Hendrickson, he said that he had several scouts watching him the past 3 weeks. He said that he felt his stats were inflated, both pitching for Tampa, and pitching at Tropicana field. He also said he thought Hendrickson would be a good fit at Dodger stadium.

252
I am from northern CA and most people I know call certain highways "the". Such as the 5 and the 101, the big freeways.

259 - That's odd. People from Fremont and Foster City that I know refuse to use "the." We've had vehement arguments about it.

When I was a kid here, we always called the freeways by the names. When I got to Stanford, I think it was numbers with no "the." Like, "Take 280 to the city instead of 101."

Yes, "the city." It's not a big deal - San Francisco was "the city" there.

When I got back to Los Angeles, I was using numbers, but so are other people now. I'm wondering if anyone else is or was using the full names.

261 - Virtually all of the people I know use the numbers of the freeways in Southern California, not the names. One reason might be that the given names of the freeways change, depending on location. The 110 is known both as the Harbor freeway and the Pasadena freeway, for instance. I think the same goes for the 405 and the 10, if I'm not mistaken.

The Santa Ana Fwy, the Foothill, the Santa Monica, the Harbor, the Riverside, the Long Beach, the Pasadena, the San Diego; these will never change. But the 605 has always been the 605. Why is that?

Now my daughter is talking about the 405 and the 57 and I got no idea. Age is not for the weak. (Or old.)

But the 605 has always been the 605. Why is that?

Auto dealership ads?

Motion to rename "the 605" to the "Matt Kemp Fwy"

265 or is it "the Matt Kemp Fwy"

251. To be fair, in the interview Coletti also reiterated his desire to build a competitive team for years to come. He pointed out that he could have made this year's (and perhaps next year's) team a 100 game winner last winter, if had wanted to. But that would have put 2008 and beyond in jeopardy.

If we're going to paraphrase the guy, let's give the whole picture.

266 - I second that.

267 - I fail to see how I inaccurately or unfairly represented what Colletti said in the interview. If you've read any of my other comments above, you'll see that I've been defending Colletti consistently today.

268 All in favor say "Yankees Suck"

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Matt Kemp is a career .000 hitter on turf.

271 batting average is an overrated statistic

You can add me to the extremely small list of people around here who like the trade, and perhaps one of the reasons is a reason why some Dodger fans HATE the deal. Whatever Colletti is saying about being willing to "shake loose some top prospects for a number one" (as if a real number one starter is even going to be traded before the deadline), I think we have quite possibly ensured that we won't be making any deal before the end of July that sacrifices prospects we have no business getting rid of. Dodger fans and the media expected something to be done, and Ned did it, without selling the farm. He can now say he didn't "stand pat" (a horrible, HORRIBLE sin in sports, for some reason), and can politely tell people to get off his back. If I prove mistaken about this assumption, and Ned trades half the farm before the deadline, I'll get angry then, and I'll admit that ONE of the reasons why I approved of the Hendrickson-Hall trade has evaporated.

As for the players leaving the Dodgers, we gave up two guys who neither served any purpose on the Dodgers now nor had any hope of having careers with us in the future. I am actually more worried about whom the PTBNL will be than either Seo or Navarro heading to Tampa Bay. It is hard to "lose" a trade when that is the case. People around here seem to have the same fixation on Navarro that they had with Hee-Seop Choi -- players joined at the hip in the respect that they were both acquisitions of the martyred DePo, and statheads in general have regarded them highly while scouts think they are close to being utterly worthless. And just as when Choi was waived, now that Navarro is gone in a trade that didn't net a lot, people are convinced "we could have got more for him," notwithstanding the absence of evidence that that is the case. At least Tampa Bay wants Navarro, while Choi ended up being DFA'd by the team that picked him up on waivers, and nobody picked up Choi the SECOND time we went on waivers.

We are essentially changing out Seo for Hendrickson, and while there is a chance Hendrickson could crater just like Seo did when he became a Dodger after doing well elsewhere (a recurring theme in Dodger history, if anybody hasn't noticed), at least we are getting Hendrickson before an off-season can mysteriously sap Hendrickson's good luck the way the off-season seemed to deflate Seo. I have always believed that in sports, as in life, it is better to be lucky than good, and for whatever reason Lady Fortune has been smiling on Hendrickson this season, as she has on Sele. The Dodgers might as well try to take advantage of that at the cost of two players we don't want and didn't figure to ever want. As for Toby Hall, I said in another thread that the guy has what every team wants in a back-up catcher, good defensive ability, and if having him means that Grady Little will stop trying to work Martin into an early grave, I say, and everybody who cares about Martin should say, "Welcome aboard, Toby."

269 - Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that your paraphrasing wasn't accurate. My comment was for the larger group who didn't have the opportunity to hear his interview.

"As Hendrickson's line-drive percentage regresses to the angry (the term I'm using because I'm tired of saying "regresses to the mean"), the number of hits he allows will rise, because line drives tend to be converted into hits more often than any other type of ball in play."

I'm wondering how fine-grained this analaysis is. Is it the case that the stat is determined based on something as fine-grained as the Fielding+ statistic that was mentioned several days ago? Or, rather, is the stat based on line drives in general?
I ask because it seems like this would make a difference. If a pitcher gives up a high percentage of line drives, but usually directed at position players, then a poor defense will obviously allow more hits to fall in. If the defense is lucky and/or good, then the pitcher's statistics will reflect this.
If, on the other hand, a pitcher generally gives up lots of line drives in the gap, but hasn't recently, then this would appear to be a bigger problem.

The 605 was always the San Gabriel Freeway when I lived down there. The 22 is the Garden Grove Freeway. The 57 is the only one I can think of which doesn't have a name, unless you want to use the "Orange Crush" which actually refers only to the part where it intersects the 5 and the 22.

the human out machine Izturis has struck again!

Lottery winners should invest their winnings in more lottery tickets. Because they're lucky! It's clearly the way to go, because that's how luck works.